Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
The populations of Austria and Portugal are pretty similar. Yet the former has just been added to the quarantine list with 331 reported new cases today whereas the latter just removed from the quarantine list with 219. Hardly a difference significant enough to justify the hassle and disruption being imposed on travellers and the travel industry.
Austria has 33 cases per hundred thousand today. A week ago it had 19. In comparison Portugal had 28.5 and a week ago 26. The issue is the rate of travel.
How many imported Covid cases have come from each country? More relevant that the gross national figure.
The number's irrelevant, it's the proportion. We have got about 21 cases/100,000 at the moment. We don't want people coming here from countries with a significantly higher proportion of cases.
Of course it’s not irrelevant, if no tourists are importing the virus then the quarantine is pointless. Just publish the data so it becomes self explanatory, clearly any sensible government will have collected the necessary data.
So you are saying we should quarantine people from all popular holiday destinations, just to be on the safe side, but not places people don't go, however much they are a hotbed of Corona?
The page I linked to is the ECDC data on 14-day new case rates for all countries. 14-day rates are a good proxy for "how many people have Corona at the moment" as it is reckoned than, on average, you have it for 14 days. The UK government is working off 7-day rates but unfortunately I can't find a good source of the data. I presume they feel it shows the recent rate of increase better.
No I’m saying quarantine decisions should be based on the actual number of imported infections from each holiday destination and the recent growth/reduction trend. Taking a national figure should not be necessary. Imported infections are not the main driver, social/family gatherings and working environments are the major driver out here in Spain, with night life also featuring, the importation from one part of Spain to another barely features as a reason on its own. One of the areas with the lowest infection rates is Benidorm where I believe the controls have been rigorously enforced and they have the police to maintain them.
The problem is, there is no way of knowing the new cases linked to any foreign travel destination. To know that, we would have to have a compulsory test for everyone returning from abroad.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
As portrayed in the unionist media. Very conveniently, and with lots of elision and smearing.
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
Is he the same bellend who organised the hazmat suit protests a couple of miles north of Berwick? That would make sense.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
Is he the same bellend who organised the hazmat suit protests a couple of miles north of Berwick? That would make sense.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
Is he the same bellend who organised the hazmat suit protests a couple of miles north of Berwick? That would make sense.
I don't know that he 'organised' them but he was reportedly very muich involved. Before that, his main claim to fame was being ejected from the Holyrood Pmt building for protesting against Ms Sturgeon and the SNP, as I recall.
Edit: yep, here we are re Lamberton, including SNP condemnation
The populations of Austria and Portugal are pretty similar. Yet the former has just been added to the quarantine list with 331 reported new cases today whereas the latter just removed from the quarantine list with 219. Hardly a difference significant enough to justify the hassle and disruption being imposed on travellers and the travel industry.
Austria has 33 cases per hundred thousand today. A week ago it had 19. In comparison Portugal had 28.5 and a week ago 26. The issue is the rate of travel.
How many imported Covid cases have come from each country? More relevant that the gross national figure.
The number's irrelevant, it's the proportion. We have got about 21 cases/100,000 at the moment. We don't want people coming here from countries with a significantly higher proportion of cases.
Of course it’s not irrelevant, if no tourists are importing the virus then the quarantine is pointless. Just publish the data so it becomes self explanatory, clearly any sensible government will have collected the necessary data.
So you are saying we should quarantine people from all popular holiday destinations, just to be on the safe side, but not places people don't go, however much they are a hotbed of Corona?
The page I linked to is the ECDC data on 14-day new case rates for all countries. 14-day rates are a good proxy for "how many people have Corona at the moment" as it is reckoned than, on average, you have it for 14 days. The UK government is working off 7-day rates but unfortunately I can't find a good source of the data. I presume they feel it shows the recent rate of increase better.
No I’m saying quarantine decisions should be based on the actual number of imported infections from each holiday destination and the recent growth/reduction trend. Taking a national figure should not be necessary. Imported infections are not the main driver, social/family gatherings and working environments are the major driver out here in Spain, with night life also featuring, the importation from one part of Spain to another barely features as a reason on its own. One of the areas with the lowest infection rates is Benidorm where I believe the controls have been rigorously enforced and they have the police to maintain them.
The problem is, there is no way of knowing the new cases linked to any foreign travel destination. To know that, we would have to have a compulsory test for everyone returning from abroad.
Surely when someone has a test either due to symptoms or contact tracing or other reason you ask if they have been abroad and if so where and when. If they then prove positive unless there is a more obvious source of infection then it can be chalked up as imported.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
As portrayed in the unionist media. Very conveniently, and with lots of elision and smearing.
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Rubbish.
The images speak for themselves and have upset Edinburgh Airport Authorities
And I voted remain and support the democratic process
Of course it isn't. R is a crude number, it's a guesstimate, it's volatile, it tells us nothing at all about variations in the infection rate by age group or by locality, and breaks down completely at low levels of community transmission.
I remember all those months of Downing Street press conferences where everyone was looking all ashen-faced and worried over the fact that R was, apparently, at 1, or approaching 1, or just under 1, or somewhere between 0.8 and 1. Meanwhile, the total number of Covid patients in hospital in the UK has declined by 96% relative to the peak value, and daily deaths in single figures are now commonly reported.
And what's the latest estimate of R for the UK, as published on gov.uk today? 0.9-1.1.
What meaningless twaddle.
Meaningless twaddle? It means R0 is about one. That correlates nicely with the fact that new cases seem to be approximately static. Of course if numbers are low, it's less important, and if numbers are very low, it's just noise. When the number of COVID sufferers in the UK was measurable in millions, then it was very important.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
Why would the actions of a protest group who campaign _against_ the SNP not do the SNP's image any favours?
Be that as it may Sturgeon has indeed condemned their actions previously.
The populations of Austria and Portugal are pretty similar. Yet the former has just been added to the quarantine list with 331 reported new cases today whereas the latter just removed from the quarantine list with 219. Hardly a difference significant enough to justify the hassle and disruption being imposed on travellers and the travel industry.
Austria has 33 cases per hundred thousand today. A week ago it had 19. In comparison Portugal had 28.5 and a week ago 26. The issue is the rate of travel.
How many imported Covid cases have come from each country? More relevant that the gross national figure.
The number's irrelevant, it's the proportion. We have got about 21 cases/100,000 at the moment. We don't want people coming here from countries with a significantly higher proportion of cases.
Of course it’s not irrelevant, if no tourists are importing the virus then the quarantine is pointless. Just publish the data so it becomes self explanatory, clearly any sensible government will have collected the necessary data.
So you are saying we should quarantine people from all popular holiday destinations, just to be on the safe side, but not places people don't go, however much they are a hotbed of Corona?
The page I linked to is the ECDC data on 14-day new case rates for all countries. 14-day rates are a good proxy for "how many people have Corona at the moment" as it is reckoned than, on average, you have it for 14 days. The UK government is working off 7-day rates but unfortunately I can't find a good source of the data. I presume they feel it shows the recent rate of increase better.
No I’m saying quarantine decisions should be based on the actual number of imported infections from each holiday destination and the recent growth/reduction trend. Taking a national figure should not be necessary. Imported infections are not the main driver, social/family gatherings and working environments are the major driver out here in Spain, with night life also featuring, the importation from one part of Spain to another barely features as a reason on its own. One of the areas with the lowest infection rates is Benidorm where I believe the controls have been rigorously enforced and they have the police to maintain them.
The problem is, there is no way of knowing the new cases linked to any foreign travel destination. To know that, we would have to have a compulsory test for everyone returning from abroad.
Surely when someone has a test either due to symptoms or contact tracing or other reason you ask if they have been abroad and if so where and when. If they then prove positive unless there is a more obvious source of infection then it can be chalked up as imported.
You're relying on people to actually have tests, and by definition miss out on asymptomatic cases.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
As portrayed in the unionist media. Very conveniently, and with lots of elision and smearing.
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Rubbish.
The images speak for themselves and have upset Edinburgh Airport Authorities
And I voted remain and support the democratic process
Of course they have upset the airport. But they do not have the meaning youy are so keen to assign to them. If yolu are not willing to accept that when a correction is politely suggested, then perhaps you should reconsider your entire comments on any aspect of Scottish politics.
Of course it isn't. R is a crude number, it's a guesstimate, it's volatile, it tells us nothing at all about variations in the infection rate by age group or by locality, and breaks down completely at low levels of community transmission.
I remember all those months of Downing Street press conferences where everyone was looking all ashen-faced and worried over the fact that R was, apparently, at 1, or approaching 1, or just under 1, or somewhere between 0.8 and 1. Meanwhile, the total number of Covid patients in hospital in the UK has declined by 96% relative to the peak value, and daily deaths in single figures are now commonly reported.
And what's the latest estimate of R for the UK, as published on gov.uk today? 0.9-1.1.
What meaningless twaddle.
Meaningless twaddle? It means R0 is about one. That correlates nicely with the fact that new cases seem to be approximately static. Of course if numbers are low, it's less important, and if numbers are very low, it's just noise. When the number of COVID sufferers in the UK was measurable in millions, then it was very important.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
As portrayed in the unionist media. Very conveniently, and with lots of elision and smearing.
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Rubbish.
The images speak for themselves and have upset Edinburgh Airport Authorities
And I voted remain and support the democratic process
Of course they have upset the airport. But they do not have the meaning youy are so keen to assign to them. If yolu are not willing to accept that when a correction is politely suggested, then perhaps you should reconsider your entire comments on any aspect of Scottish politics.
You may want to close me down on Scots politics but after over 62 years interest and even involvement with Scotland it is not going to work
I think we should all agree that Trump's Presidency has been historic.
During the last four years we've seen: - an economic crash that rivalled the start of the Great Depression and the Great Recessin - a pandemic that rivals 1918/19 - an unprecedented number of the President's former advisors charged and/or convicted - race riots on a scale similar to 1968
Of course it isn't. R is a crude number, it's a guesstimate, it's volatile, it tells us nothing at all about variations in the infection rate by age group or by locality, and breaks down completely at low levels of community transmission.
I remember all those months of Downing Street press conferences where everyone was looking all ashen-faced and worried over the fact that R was, apparently, at 1, or approaching 1, or just under 1, or somewhere between 0.8 and 1. Meanwhile, the total number of Covid patients in hospital in the UK has declined by 96% relative to the peak value, and daily deaths in single figures are now commonly reported.
And what's the latest estimate of R for the UK, as published on gov.uk today? 0.9-1.1.
What meaningless twaddle.
Meaningless twaddle? It means R0 is about one. That correlates nicely with the fact that new cases seem to be approximately static. Of course if numbers are low, it's less important, and if numbers are very low, it's just noise. When the number of COVID sufferers in the UK was measurable in millions, then it was very important.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
As portrayed in the unionist media. Very conveniently, and with lots of elision and smearing.
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Rubbish.
The images speak for themselves and have upset Edinburgh Airport Authorities
And I voted remain and support the democratic process
Of course they have upset the airport. But they do not have the meaning youy are so keen to assign to them. If yolu are not willing to accept that when a correction is politely suggested, then perhaps you should reconsider your entire comments on any aspect of Scottish politics.
You may want to close me down on Scots politics but after over 62 years interest and even involvement with Scotland it is not going to work
To be honest I didn't think it did!
But seriously, Clerkin and his mates are not at all representative, and you haven't even given the SNP any time to condemn - as they most certainly did with Lamberton and Gretna. So why not just ease off and see what happens?
I'm afraid that's just a misreading of what it means. Not to only do anything when cases are zero but to push and push to get them as close to zero as possible. This gives you more breathing space to deal with any outbreaks.
Of course, it relies on having an efficient test, track and isolate system, so it's not going to work as we are now (and why the UK government won't think about it).
The policy is a desirable one, however. It does mean 'intrusive' monitoring etc, and that's a good thing! It does, however, lead to fewer and lighter lockdowns, that's the whole point, not to have to rely on them.
We need to find a balance between some level of COVID in the community and life carrying on as (reasonably) normal. Today more people are dieing of influenza, cancer and car crashes than COVID - are we aiming for zero cancer, zero car crashes or zero influenza? It's epidemiologically illiterate.
Beyond that, Herdson's point about ever more extreme measures to deal with the disease as it moves closer to zero prevalence is demonstrably correct. New Zealand had a small cluster of cases and it caused such a monumental panic that a third of the population was put back into tight lockdown and the general election was postponed - and they're at constant risk of further such cycles, because the disease still exists out in the world. Besides which, we don't have the level of geographical isolation that would make pursuing such an approach a realistic option: even if we can intercept and quarantine all the illegal immigrants, what the Hell could we do about the constant flow of truck drivers?
We need to aim for a degree of control over the disease sufficient to avoid another mass eruption. Absent a completely effective vaccine, which we may not have for years and might never have at all, trying to wipe it out completely would be so disruptive and damaging that it wouldn't be worth the cost.
Spot on.
Once you have it down to a low level, you maintain those measures that have the lowest cost way of keeping R close to 1.
So, no nightclubs for now (sorry), no indoor concerts, restrictions on gyms, masks on public transport, and quarantine on those coming from abroad.
Between them, those measures appreciably cut R without a massive economic impact.
Just to add, apparently the UK government's strategy has been to have no more than 1000 cases per day. That was as bad a mistake as the ones in March, at a time when beating the virus back they accepted too high a level of
I'm afraid that's just a misreading of what it means. Not to only do anything when cases are zero but to push and push to get them as close to zero as possible. This gives you more breathing space to deal with any outbreaks.
Of course, it relies on having an efficient test, track and isolate system, so it's not going to work as we are now (and why the UK government won't think about it).
The policy is a desirable one, however. It does mean 'intrusive' monitoring etc, and that's a good thing! It does, however, lead to fewer and lighter lockdowns, that's the whole point, not to have to rely on them.
We need to find a balance between some level of COVID in the community and life carrying on as (reasonably) normal. Today more people are dieing of influenza, cancer and car crashes than COVID - are we aiming for zero cancer, zero car crashes or zero influenza? It's epidemiologically illiterate.
The UK government set a disastrously high target of 1000 infections per day. They have no way back from that now. I appreciate that the Channel Islands have got this right but England, for one, has screwed up yet again.
Where did you get this figure from? There is no target as far as I know. We cannot know how many new infections there are in a day as most get unreported.
Just to add, apparently the UK government's strategy has been to have no more than 1000 cases per day. That was as bad a mistake as the ones in March, at a time when beating the virus back they accepted too high a level of
I'm afraid that's just a misreading of what it means. Not to only do anything when cases are zero but to push and push to get them as close to zero as possible. This gives you more breathing space to deal with any outbreaks.
Of course, it relies on having an efficient test, track and isolate system, so it's not going to work as we are now (and why the UK government won't think about it).
The policy is a desirable one, however. It does mean 'intrusive' monitoring etc, and that's a good thing! It does, however, lead to fewer and lighter lockdowns, that's the whole point, not to have to rely on them.
We need to find a balance between some level of COVID in the community and life carrying on as (reasonably) normal. Today more people are dieing of influenza, cancer and car crashes than COVID - are we aiming for zero cancer, zero car crashes or zero influenza? It's epidemiologically illiterate.
The UK government set a disastrously high target of 1000 infections per day. They have no way back from that now. I appreciate that the Channel Islands have got this right but England, for one, has screwed up yet again.
Where did you get this figure from? There is no target as far as I know. We cannot know how many new infections there are in a day as most get unreported.
The populations of Austria and Portugal are pretty similar. Yet the former has just been added to the quarantine list with 331 reported new cases today whereas the latter just removed from the quarantine list with 219. Hardly a difference significant enough to justify the hassle and disruption being imposed on travellers and the travel industry.
Austria has 33 cases per hundred thousand today. A week ago it had 19. In comparison Portugal had 28.5 and a week ago 26. The issue is the rate of travel.
How many imported Covid cases have come from each country? More relevant that the gross national figure.
The number's irrelevant, it's the proportion. We have got about 21 cases/100,000 at the moment. We don't want people coming here from countries with a significantly higher proportion of cases.
Of course it’s not irrelevant, if no tourists are importing the virus then the quarantine is pointless. Just publish the data so it becomes self explanatory, clearly any sensible government will have collected the necessary data.
So you are saying we should quarantine people from all popular holiday destinations, just to be on the safe side, but not places people don't go, however much they are a hotbed of Corona?
The page I linked to is the ECDC data on 14-day new case rates for all countries. 14-day rates are a good proxy for "how many people have Corona at the moment" as it is reckoned than, on average, you have it for 14 days. The UK government is working off 7-day rates but unfortunately I can't find a good source of the data. I presume they feel it shows the recent rate of increase better.
No I’m saying quarantine decisions should be based on the actual number of imported infections from each holiday destination and the recent growth/reduction trend. Taking a national figure should not be necessary. Imported infections are not the main driver, social/family gatherings and working environments are the major driver out here in Spain, with night life also featuring, the importation from one part of Spain to another barely features as a reason on its own. One of the areas with the lowest infection rates is Benidorm where I believe the controls have been rigorously enforced and they have the police to maintain them.
The problem is, there is no way of knowing the new cases linked to any foreign travel destination. To know that, we would have to have a compulsory test for everyone returning from abroad.
Surely when someone has a test either due to symptoms or contact tracing or other reason you ask if they have been abroad and if so where and when. If they then prove positive unless there is a more obvious source of infection then it can be chalked up as imported.
You're relying on people to actually have tests, and by definition miss out on asymptomatic cases.
Yes that’s true and when the virus becomes symptomatic back tracking could prove difficult. There are efforts to track the source and if imported is a possibility the data should be available.
Of course it isn't. R is a crude number, it's a guesstimate, it's volatile, it tells us nothing at all about variations in the infection rate by age group or by locality, and breaks down completely at low levels of community transmission.
I remember all those months of Downing Street press conferences where everyone was looking all ashen-faced and worried over the fact that R was, apparently, at 1, or approaching 1, or just under 1, or somewhere between 0.8 and 1. Meanwhile, the total number of Covid patients in hospital in the UK has declined by 96% relative to the peak value, and daily deaths in single figures are now commonly reported.
And what's the latest estimate of R for the UK, as published on gov.uk today? 0.9-1.1.
What meaningless twaddle.
Meaningless twaddle? It means R0 is about one. That correlates nicely with the fact that new cases seem to be approximately static. Of course if numbers are low, it's less important, and if numbers are very low, it's just noise. When the number of COVID sufferers in the UK was measurable in millions, then it was very important.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
As portrayed in the unionist media. Very conveniently, and with lots of elision and smearing.
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Rubbish.
The images speak for themselves and have upset Edinburgh Airport Authorities
And I voted remain and support the democratic process
Of course they have upset the airport. But they do not have the meaning youy are so keen to assign to them. If yolu are not willing to accept that when a correction is politely suggested, then perhaps you should reconsider your entire comments on any aspect of Scottish politics.
You may want to close me down on Scots politics but after over 62 years interest and even involvement with Scotland it is not going to work
To be honest I didn't think it did!
But seriously, Clerkin and his mates are not at all representative, and you haven't even given the SNP any time to condemn - as they most certainly did with Lamberton and Gretna. So why not just ease off and see what happens?
I did not hear any condemnation of the Lamberton or Gretna confrontations and of course Sturgeon threatening to close the border only adds to the poor image of Scotland's attitude to the English
However, if Sturgeon's has apologised then fair enough
It is in Scotland's best interest to reject any anti English attitudes as the more that becomes a narrative any future independence discussions may will become very tense and difficult
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
I think we should all agree that Trump's Presidency has been historic.
During the last four years we've seen: - an economic crash that rivalled the start of the Great Depression and the Great Recessin - a pandemic that rivals 1918/19 - an unprecedented number of the President's former advisors charged and/or convicted - race riots on a scale similar to 1968
Of course it isn't. R is a crude number, it's a guesstimate, it's volatile, it tells us nothing at all about variations in the infection rate by age group or by locality, and breaks down completely at low levels of community transmission.
I remember all those months of Downing Street press conferences where everyone was looking all ashen-faced and worried over the fact that R was, apparently, at 1, or approaching 1, or just under 1, or somewhere between 0.8 and 1. Meanwhile, the total number of Covid patients in hospital in the UK has declined by 96% relative to the peak value, and daily deaths in single figures are now commonly reported.
And what's the latest estimate of R for the UK, as published on gov.uk today? 0.9-1.1.
What meaningless twaddle.
Meaningless twaddle? It means R0 is about one. That correlates nicely with the fact that new cases seem to be approximately static. Of course if numbers are low, it's less important, and if numbers are very low, it's just noise. When the number of COVID sufferers in the UK was measurable in millions, then it was very important.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
I don't see you or Mr Johnson writing a full public rejection every time someone such as Mr Farage comes out with some objectionable comment.
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
I have condemned Farage throughout my life
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
As portrayed in the unionist media. Very conveniently, and with lots of elision and smearing.
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Rubbish.
The images speak for themselves and have upset Edinburgh Airport Authorities
And I voted remain and support the democratic process
Of course they have upset the airport. But they do not have the meaning youy are so keen to assign to them. If yolu are not willing to accept that when a correction is politely suggested, then perhaps you should reconsider your entire comments on any aspect of Scottish politics.
You may want to close me down on Scots politics but after over 62 years interest and even involvement with Scotland it is not going to work
To be honest I didn't think it did!
But seriously, Clerkin and his mates are not at all representative, and you haven't even given the SNP any time to condemn - as they most certainly did with Lamberton and Gretna. So why not just ease off and see what happens?
I did not hear any condemnation of the Lamberton or Gretna confrontations and of course Sturgeon threatening to close the border only adds to the poor image of Scotland's attitude to the English
However, if Sturgeon's has apologised then fair enough
It is in Scotland's best interest to reject any anti English attitudes as the more that becomes a narrative any future independence discussions may will become very tense and difficult
It was fairly well publicised at the time - there is a link in another posting of mine below.
I think we should all agree that Trump's Presidency has been historic.
During the last four years we've seen: - an economic crash that rivalled the start of the Great Depression and the Great Recessin - a pandemic that rivals 1918/19 - an unprecedented number of the President's former advisors charged and/or convicted - race riots on a scale similar to 1968
Here and now, I give you my word: If you entrust me with the presidency, I will draw on the best of us, not the worst. I will be an ally of the light, not of the darkness.
Well it's a dramatic andpowerful phrase, but has anyone ever said they would be an ally of the darkness while running for the presidency?
Helping Biden in the crucial Northeast swing states where he is at risk.
Not surprising giving he represents a state that voted 55% for Hillary and just 29% for Trump and where Sanders got 5% as a write in.
Vermont gave Trump his lowest percentage of the vote of any US state, he only did worse in DC
Though did elect a Republican Governor. It cannot be very left wing, perhaps just not impressed by Trumps bullshit.
In US terms it is very left-wing and both its Senators are Democrats (counting Sanders as a Democrat) and its US Representative is a Democrat too.
Just some states are more willing to vote for a party representative at state level in the US despite the fact they would not vote for the party at Federal level e.g. Kansas has a Democrat as governor despite voting strongly for Trump and having Republicans as its Congressmen.
Occasionally the same thing happens here at council or mayoral level
I'm afraid that's just a misreading of what it means. Not to only do anything when cases are zero but to push and push to get them as close to zero as possible. This gives you more breathing space to deal with any outbreaks.
Of course, it relies on having an efficient test, track and isolate system, so it's not going to work as we are now (and why the UK government won't think about it).
The policy is a desirable one, however. It does mean 'intrusive' monitoring etc, and that's a good thing! It does, however, lead to fewer and lighter lockdowns, that's the whole point, not to have to rely on them.
We need to find a balance between some level of COVID in the community and life carrying on as (reasonably) normal. Today more people are dieing of influenza, cancer and car crashes than COVID - are we aiming for zero cancer, zero car crashes or zero influenza? It's epidemiologically illiterate.
Beyond that, Herdson's point about ever more extreme measures to deal with the disease as it moves closer to zero prevalence is demonstrably correct. New Zealand had a small cluster of cases and it caused such a monumental panic that a third of the population was put back into tight lockdown and the general election was postponed - and they're at constant risk of further such cycles, because the disease still exists out in the world. Besides which, we don't have the level of geographical isolation that would make pursuing such an approach a realistic option: even if we can intercept and quarantine all the illegal immigrants, what the Hell could we do about the constant flow of truck drivers?
We need to aim for a degree of control over the disease sufficient to avoid another mass eruption. Absent a completely effective vaccine, which we may not have for years and might never have at all, trying to wipe it out completely would be so disruptive and damaging that it wouldn't be worth the cost.
Spot on.
Once you have it down to a low level, you maintain those measures that have the lowest cost way of keeping R close to 1.
So, no nightclubs for now (sorry), no indoor concerts, restrictions on gyms, masks on public transport, and quarantine on those coming from abroad.
Between them, those measures appreciably cut R without a massive economic impact.
I think we're broadly speaking of the same mind - and we're pretty much there now. I don't think there's very much left to unshutter apart from nightclubs and sports stadia, and a limited number of spectators can probably be admitted to the latter on the proviso that the fans can be made to observe some distancing, which may or may not transpire to be realistic when test events are held.
Moving forward, I think the remaining pieces of the puzzle are shutting down the foreign holiday business, and targeted support for those economic sectors that cannot operate for the time being, or can only do so at a loss.
I'm afraid that's just a misreading of what it means. Not to only do anything when cases are zero but to push and push to get them as close to zero as possible. This gives you more breathing space to deal with any outbreaks.
Of course, it relies on having an efficient test, track and isolate system, so it's not going to work as we are now (and why the UK government won't think about it).
The policy is a desirable one, however. It does mean 'intrusive' monitoring etc, and that's a good thing! It does, however, lead to fewer and lighter lockdowns, that's the whole point, not to have to rely on them.
We need to find a balance between some level of COVID in the community and life carrying on as (reasonably) normal. Today more people are dieing of influenza, cancer and car crashes than COVID - are we aiming for zero cancer, zero car crashes or zero influenza? It's epidemiologically illiterate.
Beyond that, Herdson's point about ever more extreme measures to deal with the disease as it moves closer to zero prevalence is demonstrably correct. New Zealand had a small cluster of cases and it caused such a monumental panic that a third of the population was put back into tight lockdown and the general election was postponed - and they're at constant risk of further such cycles, because the disease still exists out in the world. Besides which, we don't have the level of geographical isolation that would make pursuing such an approach a realistic option: even if we can intercept and quarantine all the illegal immigrants, what the Hell could we do about the constant flow of truck drivers?
We need to aim for a degree of control over the disease sufficient to avoid another mass eruption. Absent a completely effective vaccine, which we may not have for years and might never have at all, trying to wipe it out completely would be so disruptive and damaging that it wouldn't be worth the cost.
Spot on.
Once you have it down to a low level, you maintain those measures that have the lowest cost way of keeping R close to 1.
So, no nightclubs for now (sorry), no indoor concerts, restrictions on gyms, masks on public transport, and quarantine on those coming from abroad.
Between them, those measures appreciably cut R without a massive economic impact.
Maybe nightclubs should stay closed, at least the low-end ones. Our local one seems to be the single biggest cause of crime and disorder in town.
Last summer, as the Jason Roy and Joe Denly experiments went forward with at best mixed success, I was asked on here which batsmen in county cricket could solve England's persistent red-ball problems with the top order.
I nominated Dominic Sibley, as the best opener in county cricket, Zak Crawley, who clearly had bags of talent, and James Bracey, an excellent top order batsman and keeper who loves a challenge.
This summer, Sibley has opened in every test, including a match winning century. Crawley has scored this superb 167 today and we should now be thinking of him as a possible opener on the winter tours and for 10 years beyond. James Bracey top scored in the England squad matches and is still in the squad when Foakes and Robinson have been released for their counties, a sign perhaps that in addition to his cricketing skills England like what he brings to the dressing room.
Some people scoffed. Others had just never heard of them.
But to quote Charles Kennedy - I was right.
Permission to now pull my unbearably smug face.
Granted. Crawley has been immense today. I do seem to recall you questioning Buttler’s ability to bat however?
I used to say Buttler had three weaknesses in red ball cricket.
He can't bat, he can't throw and he can't keep.
I am now willing to concede that on the evidence of the last three matches he has at least partially addressed one of those weaknesses.
But he's still got a worse average with the bat than Ben Foakes.
Edit - not just in Tests, but in all first class cricket (38 to 32).
He’s played in three of the four highest scoring test partnerships this summer. I’d say he’s learning how to play the red ball game, and the average is misleading.
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
There's a big unanswered question though: is the CFR falling because
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality - the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis - the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations - viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
There's a big unanswered question though: is the CFR falling because
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality - the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis - the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations - viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Or some combination of the four.
Yes, yes, probably no, possibly yes. (And also treatments have improved.)
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
There's a big unanswered question though: is the CFR falling because
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality - the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis - the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations - viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Or some combination of the four.
Not seen anything in the literature about newer, less virulent strains. The only work I saw on this was describing the current (as of July) strains in the world, and the US and European strains were both MORE virulent, not less, than the original Wuhan and Asian strains.
Could dig this out, if you're interested, but it would take some looking through a very cluttered desk.
Calling for the English to be locked out of Scotland because they are claimed to be plague spreaders is, of course, the worst kind of xenophobia.
Although it has to be pointed out at this juncture that the First Minister of Scotland has openly toyed with the idea of sealing the border on and off for the last couple of months.
Now, personally I have a certain degree of sympathy with the devolved administrations thinking about tailoring their public health measures to suit their particular circumstances - albeit that, AFAIK, there has been no evidence found linking the Aberdeen boozer cluster to the dirty infectious English.
Meanwhile, in other news, Scotland has five times as many Covid patients in hospital per head of population as England does. Insofar as I'm aware, this has not thus far led to any meaningful demands from South of the Border for the construction of a wall.
AZction for Scotland is, let's say, a rather fringe movement. Sean Clerkins is well klnwon for protesting against the SNP.
it really does not do the SNPs image any favours and needs a full public rejection by Sturgeon and everyone in the SNP
Why would the actions of a protest group who campaign _against_ the SNP not do the SNP's image any favours?
Be that as it may Sturgeon has indeed condemned their actions previously.
It's the same daft thinking as claiming that some nonsense advocated by the SWP is damaging to Labour.
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
There's a big unanswered question though: is the CFR falling because
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality - the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis - the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations - viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Or some combination of the four.
Not seen anything in the literature about newer, less virulent strains. The only work I saw on this was describing the current (as of July) strains in the world, and the US and European strains were both MORE virulent, not less, than the original Wuhan and Asian strains.
Could dig this out, if you're interested, but it would take some looking through a very cluttered desk.
Another potential explanation is that the other coronavirus common colds do confer some protection, which might explain why COVID seems to peak with prevalence under 20%. There has been some evidence to support this.
I think we should all agree that Trump's Presidency has been historic.
During the last four years we've seen: - an economic crash that rivalled the start of the Great Depression and the Great Recessin - a pandemic that rivals 1918/19 - an unprecedented number of the President's former advisors charged and/or convicted - race riots on a scale similar to 1968
Here and now, I give you my word: If you entrust me with the presidency, I will draw on the best of us, not the worst. I will be an ally of the light, not of the darkness.
Well it's a dramatic andpowerful phrase, but has anyone ever said they would be an ally of the darkness while running for the presidency?
No, but at least he's leading on what sort of President he'd be, which is an improvement. The phrase would be even stronger without the Trump snark. If he said he'd draw on the best etc. etc., the contrast with Trump would be quite obvious enough and it would be classier.
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
There's a big unanswered question though: is the CFR falling because
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality - the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis - the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations - viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Or some combination of the four.
Point 1 certainly appears true, point 2 probably is, there's no evidence of which I'm aware for point 3, and point 4 appears to be widely suspected by the medical profession but is not yet proven.
The thing that most interests me at the moment is why it is that the UK doesn't seem to be going through the same kind of second wave panic flapping as some other large European countries, and whether or not this state of affairs will last. I am currently in the optimistic camp on this one. I reckon we're finding the disease a bit easier to control because...
1. We have unusually high WFH levels, which consequently means that much of the public transport system has been almost abandoned - and the part of the country that has returned closest to normal in this respect, Greater London, has already gone through a bigger initial wave of cases in the Spring than any other part of the country 2. We also had, even before Covid, an unusually well-developed online retail sector, which has helped to suppress footfall in physical retail (particularly as the non-essential shops have re-opened) 3. People in general, and young people in particular, are gathering less in large groups and in close proximity than in some other countries. The anecdata from Spain, with its until recently open nightclubs, and restaurants and bars catering to large numbers of punters into the early hours of the morning, seem to suggest that this could be true 4. An awful lot of medical shielders and older people continue to be very nervous, and are behaving as if it is still April. I think that the messaging about staying at home to protect the NHS from the days of the Lockdown Spring may have been both more effective, and longer lasting in its effect, than the Government had anticipated
I'm afraid that's just a misreading of what it means. Not to only do anything when cases are zero but to push and push to get them as close to zero as possible. This gives you more breathing space to deal with any outbreaks.
Of course, it relies on having an efficient test, track and isolate system, so it's not going to work as we are now (and why the UK government won't think about it).
The policy is a desirable one, however. It does mean 'intrusive' monitoring etc, and that's a good thing! It does, however, lead to fewer and lighter lockdowns, that's the whole point, not to have to rely on them.
We need to find a balance between some level of COVID in the community and life carrying on as (reasonably) normal. Today more people are dieing of influenza, cancer and car crashes than COVID - are we aiming for zero cancer, zero car crashes or zero influenza? It's epidemiologically illiterate.
Beyond that, Herdson's point about ever more extreme measures to deal with the disease as it moves closer to zero prevalence is demonstrably correct. New Zealand had a small cluster of cases and it caused such a monumental panic that a third of the population was put back into tight lockdown and the general election was postponed - and they're at constant risk of further such cycles, because the disease still exists out in the world. Besides which, we don't have the level of geographical isolation that would make pursuing such an approach a realistic option: even if we can intercept and quarantine all the illegal immigrants, what the Hell could we do about the constant flow of truck drivers?
We need to aim for a degree of control over the disease sufficient to avoid another mass eruption. Absent a completely effective vaccine, which we may not have for years and might never have at all, trying to wipe it out completely would be so disruptive and damaging that it wouldn't be worth the cost.
Spot on.
Once you have it down to a low level, you maintain those measures that have the lowest cost way of keeping R close to 1.
So, no nightclubs for now (sorry), no indoor concerts, restrictions on gyms, masks on public transport, and quarantine on those coming from abroad.
Between them, those measures appreciably cut R without a massive economic impact.
Maybe nightclubs should stay closed, at least the low-end ones. Our local one seems to be the single biggest cause of crime and disorder in town.
The rowdy behavior of Andrew Neil emerging from Annabel's shouldn't tarnish the sector. Impressive location though Mr L.
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
There's a big unanswered question though: is the CFR falling because
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality - the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis - the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations - viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Or some combination of the four.
IMO:
- depends which earlier numbers you mean, but the sensibly-calculated earlier estimates of all-population IFR still hold up (~0.5%ish), taking into account survey studies; - I think this is the one; - very unlikely: mutations are happening, but none are dominating and it's unlikely that so many mutations would almost all be towards lower fatality; - maybe but it might be wishful thinking -- very difficult to assess this scientifically.
I'm afraid that's just a misreading of what it means. Not to only do anything when cases are zero but to push and push to get them as close to zero as possible. This gives you more breathing space to deal with any outbreaks.
Of course, it relies on having an efficient test, track and isolate system, so it's not going to work as we are now (and why the UK government won't think about it).
The policy is a desirable one, however. It does mean 'intrusive' monitoring etc, and that's a good thing! It does, however, lead to fewer and lighter lockdowns, that's the whole point, not to have to rely on them.
We need to find a balance between some level of COVID in the community and life carrying on as (reasonably) normal. Today more people are dieing of influenza, cancer and car crashes than COVID - are we aiming for zero cancer, zero car crashes or zero influenza? It's epidemiologically illiterate.
Beyond that, Herdson's point about ever more extreme measures to deal with the disease as it moves closer to zero prevalence is demonstrably correct. New Zealand had a small cluster of cases and it caused such a monumental panic that a third of the population was put back into tight lockdown and the general election was postponed - and they're at constant risk of further such cycles, because the disease still exists out in the world. Besides which, we don't have the level of geographical isolation that would make pursuing such an approach a realistic option: even if we can intercept and quarantine all the illegal immigrants, what the Hell could we do about the constant flow of truck drivers?
We need to aim for a degree of control over the disease sufficient to avoid another mass eruption. Absent a completely effective vaccine, which we may not have for years and might never have at all, trying to wipe it out completely would be so disruptive and damaging that it wouldn't be worth the cost.
Spot on.
Once you have it down to a low level, you maintain those measures that have the lowest cost way of keeping R close to 1.
So, no nightclubs for now (sorry), no indoor concerts, restrictions on gyms, masks on public transport, and quarantine on those coming from abroad.
Between them, those measures appreciably cut R without a massive economic impact.
And aiming for "Zero COVID" is epidemiologically illiterate and economically ruinous.
Guernsey, which has had no COVID cases for 113 days is not aiming for "Zero Covid". It's a fool's errand.
We had shitloads of virus in March, we just didn't know it at the time. ZOE reckon there were 2 million active cases by 1 April. The borders should have been closed mid-February to be effective. Now we have very low active infection rates (18,000 across the whole country according to ZOE) then imported infections could make a significant difference.
Working back from the daily deaths recorded at the peak must have had in excess of 100,000 infections per day around the middle of March, we probably have 3,000 to 4,000 infections per day now (taking into account asymptomatic cases) and maybe it is less than that.
I really do not understand why he went to Scotland in the first place
How is there a security issue? If he really was close to Applecross, my memory is that there is one windy old road in and out and vast miles of wilderness.
I really do not understand why he went to Scotland in the first place
How is there a security issue? If he really was close to Applecross, my memory is that there is one windy old road in and out and vast miles of wilderness.
Latest info from the CEBM in Oxford, for anyone who hasn't seen it - the infection fatality ratio for Covid-19 in England is estimated at 0.3% based on Medical Research Council data, or 0.5% based on ONS statistics. Details here:
There's a big unanswered question though: is the CFR falling because
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality - the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis - the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations - viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Or some combination of the four.
Yes, yes, probably no, possibly yes. (And also treatments have improved.)
I concur with those four answers, and your point about treatments.
Whenever the shake-up comes, several other ministers are thought to be at risk of losing their jobs. There is growing scepticism inside Number 10 about international trade secretary Liz Truss. “She’s something of an unexploded bomb and I can’t see her surviving a reshuffle,” according to one Whitehall official.
Only a few here remain confident in Truss, even Number 10 does not
The thing that most interests me at the moment is why it is that the UK doesn't seem to be going through the same kind of second wave panic flapping as some other large European countries, and whether or not this state of affairs will last. I am currently in the optimistic camp on this one. I reckon we're finding the disease a bit easier to control because...
1. We have unusually high WFH levels, which consequently means that much of the public transport system has been almost abandoned - and the part of the country that has returned closest to normal in this respect, Greater London, has already gone through a bigger initial wave of cases in the Spring than any other part of the country
The impact of the move away from office desk working to WFH still seems to confuse and bemuse many. With the schools back and the weather worsening next month, Working at Home is going to get a new lease of life as people relaise they son't miss trudging in the rain and wind to a station or bus stop or sit in traffic jams for hours.
While road traffic has returned to nearer pre-Covid levels, train passenger numbers are at 25% and tube passengers at 28% of pre-Covid levels (according to The Sun (so it must be true) earlier in the week).
The WFH revolution has seen changes and winners as well - retail sales are buoyant as home workers are spending online using that money they don't have to spend on fares, office lunches and work clothes. Hone delivery companies are recruiting and new services dedicated to home workers have sprung to life as capitalism once again proves adversity creates opportunity. Other winners include small towns and villages which are no longer silent commuter dormitories but are now vibrant communities doing the day.
And yet there seems almost a manic desire among some to get back to the way we were - to turn the clock back and try to forget Covid-19 ever happened. Of course, for those who have to live with it and those who have lost loved ones that isn't easy and as usual these groups are being forgotten.
We need to wait until what has or hasn't been said about Boris's holiday becomes clear, but there's something pretty grim about SNP politicians and their supporters not wanting visitors in 'their' country. When Scottish nationalism goes the way of all flesh, there will be a lot of embarrassed people claiming they only ever supported the Greens.
SNP gaining popularity in Scotland, Independence on the rise? I know, blame the SNP! That will go down a storm.
These people are morons.
Whilst the point of SNP popularity and Sindy popularity is certainly valid, I don't quite follow your point, which seems to have the implication that because the SNP is becoming even more popular, they shouldn't be blamed for things. Given the phrasing of your comment it makes it seem a general point 'SNP Popular, blaming them is a bad idea'.
In fact they should, but only where it can be proven said thing is their fault, otherwise it would be counter productive. Blaming political opponents for things can be a very effective way of reducing the other's popularity and gaining it oneself, the SNP would say so themselves.
SNP gaining popularity in Scotland, Independence on the rise? I know, blame the SNP! That will go down a storm.
These people are morons.
That gives SNP politicians free rein to do crap like this?
Prove it was the SNP that leaked the address publicly. You can't.
What would be the point of trying to prove anything anyway? Boris is so disliked in Scotland he can literally be medically assessed as needing to be in ICU and people will claim it was played up for PR purposes. I guarantee if there is proof someone in the SNP did it, the response would be 'Good on them, we don't want him round here anyway'.
And yet there seems almost a manic desire among some to get back to the way we were - to turn the clock back and try to forget Covid-19 ever happened. Of course, for those who have to live with it and those who have lost loved ones that isn't easy and as usual these groups are being forgotten.
We shouldn't even try to go back, we've had a decade or more's worth of change in the space of six months — at an enormous cost — the least we should do is to try to hang onto the few positive aspects of that change. Things like more WFH, less commuting, less pollution, a small boost for local retail, etc.
SNP gaining popularity in Scotland, Independence on the rise? I know, blame the SNP! That will go down a storm.
These people are morons.
That gives SNP politicians free rein to do crap like this?
Prove it was the SNP that leaked the address publicly. You can't.
Of course they haven't issued a press release about it. Having a private conversation is, in this case, much the same, and that has not been denied, so why are you denying it on their behalf?
Yesterday we had a poll showing Biden up eight in New Hampshire (51-43) so that's a swing of 4% from 2016.
All these are also in the 3-4% swing range suggesting a national Biden lead of about eight points.
Pennslyvania is massive for Biden. If he takes that and Florida he can even give back Minnesota.
There's an incredibly long way to go. Biden is being helped by the strong negativity Trump seems to evoke which is outweighing any concerns about Biden himself and the Democratic ticket.
I really do not understand why he went to Scotland in the first place
He thinks its a nice holiday destination within this country?
I couldn't see much wrong with his holiday choice either. Personally I wouldn't have bothered with the tent in the back garden (What's the point when you're renting the cottage ?) but that's hardly a hanging offence.
Yesterday we had a poll showing Biden up eight in New Hampshire (51-43) so that's a swing of 4% from 2016.
All these are also in the 3-4% swing range suggesting a national Biden lead of about eight points.
Pennslyvania is massive for Biden. If he takes that and Florida he can even give back Minnesota.
There's an incredibly long way to go. Biden is being helped by the strong negativity Trump seems to evoke which is outweighing any concerns about Biden himself and the Democratic ticket.
None of that changes the importance of Florida and Pennsylvania this time round though.
Yesterday we had a poll showing Biden up eight in New Hampshire (51-43) so that's a swing of 4% from 2016.
All these are also in the 3-4% swing range suggesting a national Biden lead of about eight points.
Pennslyvania is massive for Biden. If he takes that and Florida he can even give back Minnesota.
There's an incredibly long way to go. Biden is being helped by the strong negativity Trump seems to evoke which is outweighing any concerns about Biden himself and the Democratic ticket.
None of that changes the importance of Florida and Pennsylvania this time round though.
Penn is massive.
There is no way Biden will allow Penn to slip from his fingers.
I really do not understand why he went to Scotland in the first place
He thinks its a nice holiday destination within this country?
I couldn't see much wrong with his holiday choice either. Personally I wouldn't have bothered with the tent in the back garden (What's the point when you're renting the cottage ?) but that's hardly a hanging offence.
There was a tent there, and he and his girlfriend though it would be cool to put it up and have a hideaway looking at a nice view and build a fire? String them up.
And yet there seems almost a manic desire among some to get back to the way we were - to turn the clock back and try to forget Covid-19 ever happened. Of course, for those who have to live with it and those who have lost loved ones that isn't easy and as usual these groups are being forgotten.
We shouldn't even try to go back, we've had a decade or more's worth of change in the space of six months — at an enormous cost — the least we should do is to try to hang onto the few positive aspects of that change. Things like more WFH, less commuting, less pollution, a small boost for local retail, etc.
There's zero probability of businesses and workers returning to the status quo ante February. WFH just has too many advantages; even when Covid is over and done with, I don't see why most people would want or need to drag themselves into city centre offices full-time. It's just a matter of how much commuting is still necessary, if any, or how little they can get away with.
The railway station car park here in commuter belt market town land, which I can see from my flat, used to be pretty much full Monday to Friday before this all kicked off. During Peak Lockdown, the number of cars was anywhere between zero and about four. Even now, nearly at the end of Summer, it's still about 95% empty. Incidentally, leisure traffic at the weekends is also a pale shadow of its former self.
The age of full-time mass commuting is over. Kaput. Finished.
And yet there seems almost a manic desire among some to get back to the way we were - to turn the clock back and try to forget Covid-19 ever happened. Of course, for those who have to live with it and those who have lost loved ones that isn't easy and as usual these groups are being forgotten.
We shouldn't even try to go back, we've had a decade or more's worth of change in the space of six months — at an enormous cost — the least we should do is to try to hang onto the few positive aspects of that change. Things like more WFH, less commuting, less pollution, a small boost for local retail, etc.
There's zero probability of businesses and workers returning to the status quo ante February. WFH just has too many advantages; even when Covid is over and done with, I don't see why most people would want or need to drag themselves into city centre offices full-time. It's just a matter of how much commuting is still necessary, if any, or how little they can get away with.
The railway station car park here in commuter belt market town land, which I can see from my flat, used to be pretty much full Monday to Friday before this all kicked off. During Peak Lockdown, the number of cars was anywhere between zero and about four. Even now, nearly at the end of Summer, it's still about 95% empty. Incidentally, leisure traffic at the weekends is also a pale shadow of its former self.
The age of full-time mass commuting is over. Kaput. Finished.
*cancel HS2 now please. By the time it's finished you'll probably be able to hologram yourself into a room by videoconference anyway.
Comments
You really do need to stop lumping together everyone on the 80% of the spectrum to the left of you. Especially when it damages your credibility with anyone who knows anything about Scottish politics.
Vermont gave Trump his lowest percentage of the vote of any US state, he only did worse in DC
BUT no doubt Trumpsky can recommend a friendly Chinese fugitive serial con artist who would be happy to have BoJo gracing his poop deck.
And you miss the point, it's an image of Scotland presented to the outside world
And you do support a Tory Party which defeated Mr Farage only by adopting hios programme.
Edit: yep, here we are re Lamberton, including SNP condemnation
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nationalist-group-vows-continue-border-22313995
The images speak for themselves and have upset Edinburgh Airport Authorities
And I voted remain and support the democratic process
Be that as it may Sturgeon has indeed condemned their actions previously.
During the last four years we've seen:
- an economic crash that rivalled the start of the Great Depression and the Great Recessin
- a pandemic that rivals 1918/19
- an unprecedented number of the President's former advisors charged and/or convicted
- race riots on a scale similar to 1968
But seriously, Clerkin and his mates are not at all representative, and you haven't even given the SNP any time to condemn - as they most certainly did with Lamberton and Gretna. So why not just ease off and see what happens?
Once you have it down to a low level, you maintain those measures that have the lowest cost way of keeping R close to 1.
So, no nightclubs for now (sorry), no indoor concerts, restrictions on gyms, masks on public transport, and quarantine on those coming from abroad.
Between them, those measures appreciably cut R without a massive economic impact.
maybe?
However, if Sturgeon's has apologised then fair enough
It is in Scotland's best interest to reject any anti English attitudes as the more that becomes a narrative any future independence discussions may will become very tense and difficult
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/estimating-the-infection-fatality-ratio-in-england/
https://twitter.com/HamillHimself/status/1296663967595560960
Well it's a dramatic andpowerful phrase, but has anyone ever said they would be an ally of the darkness while running for the presidency?
My respect for Mr Biden continues to grow
Just some states are more willing to vote for a party representative at state level in the US despite the fact they would not vote for the party at Federal level e.g. Kansas has a Democrat as governor despite voting strongly for Trump and having Republicans as its Congressmen.
Occasionally the same thing happens here at council or mayoral level
2 - 2 at half time
Moving forward, I think the remaining pieces of the puzzle are shutting down the foreign holiday business, and targeted support for those economic sectors that cannot operate for the time being, or can only do so at a loss.
I’d say he’s learning how to play the red ball game, and the average is misleading.
- we're catching many more cases, and so the earlier numbers exaggerated its lethality
- the people catching it now are mostly young, so we're seeing the expected fatality on an age adjusted basis
- the virulence of the disease is falling due to mutations
- viral loads that people are receiving are smaller due to social distancing
Or some combination of the four.
(And also treatments have improved.)
Could dig this out, if you're interested, but it would take some looking through a very cluttered desk.
Lots still not known though...
The thing that most interests me at the moment is why it is that the UK doesn't seem to be going through the same kind of second wave panic flapping as some other large European countries, and whether or not this state of affairs will last. I am currently in the optimistic camp on this one. I reckon we're finding the disease a bit easier to control because...
1. We have unusually high WFH levels, which consequently means that much of the public transport system has been almost abandoned - and the part of the country that has returned closest to normal in this respect, Greater London, has already gone through a bigger initial wave of cases in the Spring than any other part of the country
2. We also had, even before Covid, an unusually well-developed online retail sector, which has helped to suppress footfall in physical retail (particularly as the non-essential shops have re-opened)
3. People in general, and young people in particular, are gathering less in large groups and in close proximity than in some other countries. The anecdata from Spain, with its until recently open nightclubs, and restaurants and bars catering to large numbers of punters into the early hours of the morning, seem to suggest that this could be true
4. An awful lot of medical shielders and older people continue to be very nervous, and are behaving as if it is still April. I think that the messaging about staying at home to protect the NHS from the days of the Lockdown Spring may have been both more effective, and longer lasting in its effect, than the Government had anticipated
- depends which earlier numbers you mean, but the sensibly-calculated earlier estimates of all-population IFR still hold up (~0.5%ish), taking into account survey studies;
- I think this is the one;
- very unlikely: mutations are happening, but none are dominating and it's unlikely that so many mutations would almost all be towards lower fatality;
- maybe but it might be wishful thinking -- very difficult to assess this scientifically.
--AS
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1296891839732166661?s=19
Guernsey, which has had no COVID cases for 113 days is not aiming for "Zero Covid". It's a fool's errand.
They're now blaming the SNP.
These people are morons.
Numpty.
All these are also in the 3-4% swing range suggesting a national Biden lead of about eight points.
Result.
Journalist asks if PM will act like a PM
Sounds ideal for protection.
Concerns?
Should be more than 'concerns'!!! It's a frigging clown fest where the better clowns have been barred entry.
Only a few here remain confident in Truss, even Number 10 does not
While road traffic has returned to nearer pre-Covid levels, train passenger numbers are at 25% and tube passengers at 28% of pre-Covid levels (according to The Sun (so it must be true) earlier in the week).
The WFH revolution has seen changes and winners as well - retail sales are buoyant as home workers are spending online using that money they don't have to spend on fares, office lunches and work clothes. Hone delivery companies are recruiting and new services dedicated to home workers have sprung to life as capitalism once again proves adversity creates opportunity. Other winners include small towns and villages which are no longer silent commuter dormitories but are now vibrant communities doing the day.
And yet there seems almost a manic desire among some to get back to the way we were - to turn the clock back and try to forget Covid-19 ever happened. Of course, for those who have to live with it and those who have lost loved ones that isn't easy and as usual these groups are being forgotten.
In fact they should, but only where it can be proven said thing is their fault, otherwise it would be counter productive. Blaming political opponents for things can be a very effective way of reducing the other's popularity and gaining it oneself, the SNP would say so themselves.
There is no way Biden will allow Penn to slip from his fingers.
The railway station car park here in commuter belt market town land, which I can see from my flat, used to be pretty much full Monday to Friday before this all kicked off. During Peak Lockdown, the number of cars was anywhere between zero and about four. Even now, nearly at the end of Summer, it's still about 95% empty. Incidentally, leisure traffic at the weekends is also a pale shadow of its former self.
The age of full-time mass commuting is over. Kaput. Finished.