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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there was a betting market on Williamson not being Educatio

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  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    Using the reported case number is a bad idea, since the weekend shadow is very strong.
    Sure, so the numbers tomorrow or Weds might show an increase. Nevertheless, the UK has (so far) avoided the big jump in case numbers so many other places saw.

    My gut tells me this is temporary, however.

    There's a natural cycle at work here. People see case numbers drop and stay low, and they relax their guard. And they see that case numbers still aren't rising, and they assume that everything is OK. The big gap between infection and diagnosis pretty much ensures that there will be "swings" on both the low and the high side.
  • Options
    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    edited August 2020

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    England case numbers - regional -

    image
    image

    Here we go.
    You are aware that the entire reason that the last peak wasn't the size of the previous one was Northampton?
    Referring to the gradual increase which doesn't seem to be stopping.
    Without Northampton, it is levelling off.
    It`s worth knowing that the Northampton outbreak is largely a result of one company`s staff, Greencore, and 73% of those that that tested positive had no symptoms and were found positive via private company testing. If Northampton goes into lockdown because of this many residents will be mighty angry with Greencore.

    https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/health/coronavirus/greencore-union-carry-out-urgent-thorough-track-and-trace-process-after-300-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-northampton-food-factory-2942196
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,701
    edited August 2020
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Because this applies to GCSE grades as well, one side effect that could come back to bite is that over-generous teacher predictions (by some, not all) could lead to many more students reaching the threshold to do A-level courses. It's likely that some of those who scrape the required GCSE grades could struggle on A levels. Expect retention and results to decline on A-level courses by 2022.

    moonshine said:

    10 out of 10 for the Government performing the U-Turn. Absolutely the right thing to do.
    0 out of 10 for the politics of their performance and for getting into this mess in the first place. They left it far far too late to do this and there are no valid excuses for that.

    Bollocks to that. This just makes A Level grades meaningless. What’s the point in them because you can’t tell in a few years time when hiring a graduate if the person was really 3As or not? And this one off inflation disadvantages the 2018/2019/2021/2022 graduates in the first years of their career when employers still look at A Level grades.
    The government seems incapable of thinking further ahead than tonight’s twitter trends.
    I’d love to know if there are people in Cabinet calling these things out or if ministers are wary of stepping on toes outside their brief. I’ve seen it before in the private sector. Most of the room knowing that a committee is sleep walking into disaster but no one having the guts to speak up and say what everyone’s thinking. Which here is “no exam, no grade. Fix the consequence not the other way round”.
    You are making the almost universal mistake of those outside education of thinking that A-levels are themselves a reliable measure of anything other than the ability to do A-levels. They are correlated with ability and understanding of a subject, but I’ve seen enough candidates underperform on the day (and some with an ability to cram for a test having done little or no work all year) to know that the difference between an A and a B is largely illusory.
    And that isbefore you get to the inevitable foul-ups of the exam boards in a normal year.
    That’s life. You underperform when it matters then deal with it. In the big wide world it’s not unusual for hiring managers to delegate selection of interview candidates to a junior, who’s given 3 hours to read 100 CVs, to invite 6 to interview for 1 job.
    Then if you don’t mind missing out on lots of good people that is your prerogative. But if you are hiring graduates why not look at their degrees? That should give you a much better and more recent measure of their ability and knowledge.
    What if they all have a 2-1 from an equivalent Russell Group in the same subject? Or what if you are hiring for a non graduate role?
    If you have applicants with a good degree from a respectable university, Mr Moonshine, applying for a non-graduate role, then I would suggest that you have fouled up the system - with the help of others, of course.

    And if you have several applicants with the same class degree from respectable universities, then you do what you have always done - appoint the one with the shortest mini-skirt - provided of course that the legs justify the shortness.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Enjoy...
    (You have to click on the link to view it properly.)

    https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1294738150166654977

    This is nearly as good:

    https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/human-2
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    Scott_xP said:
    If the outcome was intended to be no grade inflation to maintain the integrity of the system, the big mistake was allowing the schools` CAGs to become public knowledge. As soon as it was known that Ofqual moderated significantly downwards all was lost.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,998
    "We should never have closed schools
    Young people will bear the brunt of our panicked response to the virus.
    Joanna Williams"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/08/17/we-should-never-have-closed-schools/
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,768
    The U-turn couldn't have happened without a green light from the Treasury. Sunak has tossed Williamson a lifeline, and will call in the favour when he needs it.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,027

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
    Announced by Sky - I didn't know Boris was using them as his new press secretary?
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

  • Options
    Scott_xP said:
    The one thing that has become ever so obvious that in many ways the UK is now four nations through devolution, and that this chaos by Ofqual actually manifested itself across all four nations, each one adopting it, then each one reverse ferreting when it became untenable

    As much as it may suit some agendas this is Ofquals responsibility
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    Using the reported case number is a bad idea, since the weekend shadow is very strong.
    Sure, so the numbers tomorrow or Weds might show an increase. Nevertheless, the UK has (so far) avoided the big jump in case numbers so many other places saw.

    My gut tells me this is temporary, however.

    There's a natural cycle at work here. People see case numbers drop and stay low, and they relax their guard. And they see that case numbers still aren't rising, and they assume that everything is OK. The big gap between infection and diagnosis pretty much ensures that there will be "swings" on both the low and the high side.
    Negative feedback with a delay. Like the first time a driver (used to instant response) tries to pilot a boat.
  • Options
    So Labour's new line of attack is Government incompetence.

    Let's see how that goes over.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,017
    ClippP said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Because this applies to GCSE grades as well, one side effect that could come back to bite is that over-generous teacher predictions (by some, not all) could lead to many more students reaching the threshold to do A-level courses. It's likely that some of those who scrape the required GCSE grades could struggle on A levels. Expect retention and results to decline on A-level courses by 2022.

    moonshine said:

    10 out of 10 for the Government performing the U-Turn. Absolutely the right thing to do.
    0 out of 10 for the politics of their performance and for getting into this mess in the first place. They left it far far too late to do this and there are no valid excuses for that.

    Bollocks to that. This just makes A Level grades meaningless. What’s the point in them because you can’t tell in a few years time when hiring a graduate if the person was really 3As or not? And this one off inflation disadvantages the 2018/2019/2021/2022 graduates in the first years of their career when employers still look at A Level grades.
    The government seems incapable of thinking further ahead than tonight’s twitter trends.
    I’d love to know if there are people in Cabinet calling these things out or if ministers are wary of stepping on toes outside their brief. I’ve seen it before in the private sector. Most of the room knowing that a committee is sleep walking into disaster but no one having the guts to speak up and say what everyone’s thinking. Which here is “no exam, no grade. Fix the consequence not the other way round”.
    You are making the almost universal mistake of those outside education of thinking that A-levels are themselves a reliable measure of anything other than the ability to do A-levels. They are correlated with ability and understanding of a subject, but I’ve seen enough candidates underperform on the day (and some with an ability to cram for a test having done little or no work all year) to know that the difference between an A and a B is largely illusory.
    And that isbefore you get to the inevitable foul-ups of the exam boards in a normal year.
    That’s life. You underperform when it matters then deal with it. In the big wide world it’s not unusual for hiring managers to delegate selection of interview candidates to a junior, who’s given 3 hours to read 100 CVs, to invite 6 to interview for 1 job.
    Then if you don’t mind missing out on lots of good people that is your prerogative. But if you are hiring graduates why not look at their degrees? That should give you a much better and more recent measure of their ability and knowledge.
    What if they all have a 2-1 from an equivalent Russell Group in the same subject? Or what if you are hiring for a non graduate role?
    If you have applicants with a good degree from a respectable university, Mr Moonshine, then I would suggest that you have fouled up the system - with the help of others, of course.

    And if you have several applicants with the same class degree from respectable universities, then you do what you have always done - appoint the one with the shortest mini-skirt - provided of course that the legs justify the shortness.
    I used to recruit nurses. After discussions with the nurse managers on the panel who explained to me which ones were talking bullshit, I decided that skirt length and leg curvature were, indeed, a factor.
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,768
    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If the outcome was intended to be no grade inflation to maintain the integrity of the system, the big mistake was allowing the schools` CAGs to become public knowledge. As soon as it was known that Ofqual moderated significantly downwards all was lost.
    With hindsight a better strategy would have been to require each school to maintain the same average grade as the last three years. Push the decisions as far away from the centre as possible, make them own the result. Their righteous indignation would have been incomprehensible to most onlookers.
  • Options
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
    Announced by Sky - I didn't know Boris was using them as his new press secretary?
    That is rather flippant and does not alter the fact the announcement has been made
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Wonder if next year there are going to be a wave of stories about students at Universities failing their first year exams and getting chucked out...?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871
    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Agreed, it was clearly going to be the second biggest issue for DfE after getting schools open, and it wouldnt take much thought to realise that 1) any solution was going to be contentious and 2) it may not be possible to be fair both between different years and within this year.

    If we rule out keeping schools open for those taking A levels, and possibly GCSEs, then I would have gone for giving results in a different format to traditional grades, to avoid needing to be fair between different years. So a scale of 1-10 instead of U-A* or maybe just copy the university grading of 3rd, 2:2, 2:1, 1st.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,809

    ClippP said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Because this applies to GCSE grades as well, one side effect that could come back to bite is that over-generous teacher predictions (by some, not all) could lead to many more students reaching the threshold to do A-level courses. It's likely that some of those who scrape the required GCSE grades could struggle on A levels. Expect retention and results to decline on A-level courses by 2022.

    moonshine said:

    10 out of 10 for the Government performing the U-Turn. Absolutely the right thing to do.
    0 out of 10 for the politics of their performance and for getting into this mess in the first place. They left it far far too late to do this and there are no valid excuses for that.

    Bollocks to that. This just makes A Level grades meaningless. What’s the point in them because you can’t tell in a few years time when hiring a graduate if the person was really 3As or not? And this one off inflation disadvantages the 2018/2019/2021/2022 graduates in the first years of their career when employers still look at A Level grades.
    The government seems incapable of thinking further ahead than tonight’s twitter trends.
    I’d love to know if there are people in Cabinet calling these things out or if ministers are wary of stepping on toes outside their brief. I’ve seen it before in the private sector. Most of the room knowing that a committee is sleep walking into disaster but no one having the guts to speak up and say what everyone’s thinking. Which here is “no exam, no grade. Fix the consequence not the other way round”.
    You are making the almost universal mistake of those outside education of thinking that A-levels are themselves a reliable measure of anything other than the ability to do A-levels. They are correlated with ability and understanding of a subject, but I’ve seen enough candidates underperform on the day (and some with an ability to cram for a test having done little or no work all year) to know that the difference between an A and a B is largely illusory.
    And that isbefore you get to the inevitable foul-ups of the exam boards in a normal year.
    That’s life. You underperform when it matters then deal with it. In the big wide world it’s not unusual for hiring managers to delegate selection of interview candidates to a junior, who’s given 3 hours to read 100 CVs, to invite 6 to interview for 1 job.
    Then if you don’t mind missing out on lots of good people that is your prerogative. But if you are hiring graduates why not look at their degrees? That should give you a much better and more recent measure of their ability and knowledge.
    What if they all have a 2-1 from an equivalent Russell Group in the same subject? Or what if you are hiring for a non graduate role?
    If you have applicants with a good degree from a respectable university, Mr Moonshine, then I would suggest that you have fouled up the system - with the help of others, of course.

    And if you have several applicants with the same class degree from respectable universities, then you do what you have always done - appoint the one with the shortest mini-skirt - provided of course that the legs justify the shortness.
    I used to recruit nurses. After discussions with the nurse managers on the panel who explained to me which ones were talking bullshit, I decided that skirt length and leg curvature were, indeed, a factor.
    Even the male nurses? :wink:
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If the outcome was intended to be no grade inflation to maintain the integrity of the system, the big mistake was allowing the schools` CAGs to become public knowledge. As soon as it was known that Ofqual moderated significantly downwards all was lost.
    With hindsight a better strategy would have been to require each school to maintain the same average grade as the last three years. Push the decisions as far away from the centre as possible, make them own the result. Their righteous indignation would have been incomprehensible to most onlookers.
    Really? Do you know how much improvement some schools are capable of in the State sector? Private schools tend to be pretty consistent in their results, but a good headteacher leading a motivated staff group can lead to massive improvements.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
    Announced by Sky - I didn't know Boris was using them as his new press secretary?
    Maybe LauraK is on holiday as well.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If the outcome was intended to be no grade inflation to maintain the integrity of the system, the big mistake was allowing the schools` CAGs to become public knowledge. As soon as it was known that Ofqual moderated significantly downwards all was lost.
    With hindsight a better strategy would have been to require each school to maintain the same average grade as the last three years. Push the decisions as far away from the centre as possible, make them own the result. Their righteous indignation would have been incomprehensible to most onlookers.
    That would really motivate teachers and pupils at a school that had improved from special measures to a good school over that 3 year period!
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,701
    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,768
    edited August 2020
    alex_ said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If the outcome was intended to be no grade inflation to maintain the integrity of the system, the big mistake was allowing the schools` CAGs to become public knowledge. As soon as it was known that Ofqual moderated significantly downwards all was lost.
    With hindsight a better strategy would have been to require each school to maintain the same average grade as the last three years. Push the decisions as far away from the centre as possible, make them own the result. Their righteous indignation would have been incomprehensible to most onlookers.
    Really? Do you know how much improvement some schools are capable of in the State sector? Private schools tend to be pretty consistent in their results, but a good headteacher leading a motivated staff group can lead to massive improvements.
    That's exactly what a few schools would have argued back in April and it would all be forgotten by now. Even if correct it would have much less political cut-through than the current brouhaha.

    Edit: and schools on a declining trend would welcome it.
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Agreed, it was clearly going to be the second biggest issue for DfE after getting schools open, and it wouldnt take much thought to realise that 1) any solution was going to be contentious and 2) it may not be possible to be fair both between different years and within this year.

    If we rule out keeping schools open for those taking A levels, and possibly GCSEs, then I would have gone for giving results in a different format to traditional grades, to avoid needing to be fair between different years. So a scale of 1-10 instead of U-A* or maybe just copy the university grading of 3rd, 2:2, 2:1, 1st.
    There have been plenty of sensible suggestions put forward, but all of them would have required a bit of work and detailed communication with schools. Teacher assessments could have worked, but it needed quality control. It needed detailed criteria for assessments. It needed the potential for challenge where grades seemed out of step with the norm for the schools. It needed some flexibility around allowing some level of variance from previous years. And it needed liaison with Universities to plan for some flexibility on places and a potentially slightly higher intake over the next couple of years.

    All a lot of work. But it's not like a lot of people in the education system haven't had a fair bit of time on their hands.

    There's lots that could have been done. But no. There was an algorithm.

    And even with the use of the algorithm they could have done things differently. Take advantage of time saved by not having to mark millions of exam papers and moderate them all. Run the algorithm earlier. Analyse the results. Discretely give the results to Head teachers many weeks in advance to allow them to challenge results in advance and remove the worst of the anomalies.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,586

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
    Announced by Sky - I didn't know Boris was using them as his new press secretary?
    That is rather flippant and does not alter the fact the announcement has been made
    Well actually, it's not flippant. This government is increasingly prone to making announcements via its favoured outlets, particularly the Telegraph. It has also been pulled up by the Speaker on more than one occasion for making policy announcements public before they have been made in their rightful place, the House of Commons. It's part of a populist pattern to avoid scrutiny and accountability. As is refusing to make government ministers available for interview to those media channels that the government doesn't like. It's becoming increasingly based on something like the Belarusian model.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,553
    edited August 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    "We should never have closed schools
    Young people will bear the brunt of our panicked response to the virus.
    Joanna Williams"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/08/17/we-should-never-have-closed-schools/

    It is not school closures that caused the problem but cancellation of A-levels. It would have been easy to hold them. Most exams run with appropriate social distancing already, to prevent copying. The school buildings were open and staffed for the children of key workers anyway.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,402
    Rather, it is an issue that directly affects a comparatively small number of people - pupils, parents and teachers, and now universities. So it is less salient than Cummings’ shenanigans, where he stuck two fingers up to the lot of us.

    It’s not surprising therefore that it has cut through rather less.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,402
    edited August 2020
    ClippP said:

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
    No, because it never had any competentent (sic) or critical elements. It was always filled with useless shits.

    That’s not to say those three haven’t made it worse.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    Using the reported case number is a bad idea, since the weekend shadow is very strong.
    Sure, so the numbers tomorrow or Weds might show an increase. Nevertheless, the UK has (so far) avoided the big jump in case numbers so many other places saw.

    My gut tells me this is temporary, however.

    There's a natural cycle at work here. People see case numbers drop and stay low, and they relax their guard. And they see that case numbers still aren't rising, and they assume that everything is OK. The big gap between infection and diagnosis pretty much ensures that there will be "swings" on both the low and the high side.
    Depends whether enough people are prepared to let their guard down. If a sufficient percentage of the population remains terrified, or at least cautious, and/or is greatly reducing its overall exposure to others due to WFH, then there may not be enough of those chains of transmission for R to ramp up in any generalised, widespread fashion.

    The UK has an especially large service economy, an exceptionally high take-up of WFH, and did a very good job of terrifying people and guilt tripping them into not doing anything to burden the health service early in the pandemic. That could be enough to keep a lid on the virus. We just don't know.
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
    Announced by Sky - I didn't know Boris was using them as his new press secretary?
    That is rather flippant and does not alter the fact the announcement has been made
    Well actually, it's not flippant. This government is increasingly prone to making announcements via its favoured outlets, particularly the Telegraph. It has also been pulled up by the Speaker on more than one occasion for making policy announcements public before they have been made in their rightful place, the House of Commons. It's part of a populist pattern to avoid scrutiny and accountability. As is refusing to make government ministers available for interview to those media channels that the government doesn't like. It's becoming increasingly based on something like the Belarusian model.
    And - it may seem like a basic point - but if announcements are made through 'favoured' media outlets, as opposed to through official channels (whether to Parliament or in official Government statements/press releases) then how is anyone supposed to know which announcements are actually correct?

    Because, frankly, there's plenty of "announcements" appearing in newspapers that then turn out not to be correct and/or are denied subsequently.

    You can't subsequently deny an announcement made to Parliament.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    This government is like British football clubs in Europe this season a bit shit.

    BT and Sky having done a deal to show all the football on their platforms must be a bit disappointed none are in the semi finals.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,853
    The grade inflation teeth suckers seem to have missed out that some students would have outperformed both their teacher estimated and their mock grades (as both myself and Mrs Rata did at A level, for different reasons). And that the people getting into university with their average-of-half-a-grade inflated A level results, will not be those for whom university was clearly going to be inappropriate - I suspect the effect of A levels on dropout rates will be small, but that drop out rates from ongoing COVID disruption may be a factor the teeth suckers seek to seize upon later.
  • Options
    I expect the decision will take the heat from Williamson resigning.

    Certainly on of the students on Sky this pm when prompted to seek Williamson's resignation was just happy to have had an apology and that the issue was resolved.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    Using the reported case number is a bad idea, since the weekend shadow is very strong.
    Sure, so the numbers tomorrow or Weds might show an increase. Nevertheless, the UK has (so far) avoided the big jump in case numbers so many other places saw.

    My gut tells me this is temporary, however.

    There's a natural cycle at work here. People see case numbers drop and stay low, and they relax their guard. And they see that case numbers still aren't rising, and they assume that everything is OK. The big gap between infection and diagnosis pretty much ensures that there will be "swings" on both the low and the high side.
    Depends whether enough people are prepared to let their guard down. If a sufficient percentage of the population remains terrified, or at least cautious, and/or is greatly reducing its overall exposure to others due to WFH, then there may not be enough of those chains of transmission for R to ramp up in any generalised, widespread fashion.

    The UK has an especially large service economy, an exceptionally high take-up of WFH, and did a very good job of terrifying people and guilt tripping them into not doing anything to burden the health service early in the pandemic. That could be enough to keep a lid on the virus. We just don't know.
    I think we will see a slow, steady increase - see Germany for example. Then again, it may still go ballistic.

    I do not expect a fall in cases.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871

    alex_ said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If the outcome was intended to be no grade inflation to maintain the integrity of the system, the big mistake was allowing the schools` CAGs to become public knowledge. As soon as it was known that Ofqual moderated significantly downwards all was lost.
    With hindsight a better strategy would have been to require each school to maintain the same average grade as the last three years. Push the decisions as far away from the centre as possible, make them own the result. Their righteous indignation would have been incomprehensible to most onlookers.
    Really? Do you know how much improvement some schools are capable of in the State sector? Private schools tend to be pretty consistent in their results, but a good headteacher leading a motivated staff group can lead to massive improvements.
    That's exactly what a few schools would have argued back in April and it would all be forgotten by now. Even if correct it would have much less political cut-through than the current brouhaha.

    Edit: and schools on a declining trend would welcome it.
    Rewarding failing schools and penalising improving schools is a strange approach!
  • Options

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
    Announced by Sky - I didn't know Boris was using them as his new press secretary?
    That is rather flippant and does not alter the fact the announcement has been made
    Well actually, it's not flippant. This government is increasingly prone to making announcements via its favoured outlets, particularly the Telegraph. It has also been pulled up by the Speaker on more than one occasion for making policy announcements public before they have been made in their rightful place, the House of Commons. It's part of a populist pattern to avoid scrutiny and accountability. As is refusing to make government ministers available for interview to those media channels that the government doesn't like. It's becoming increasingly based on something like the Belarusian model.
    I do not think so.

    Indeed Williamson has been on the media himself apologising and are you applying this to Wales where I have not seen or heard from the Welsh First Minister on his about face
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,586
    ydoethur said:

    ClippP said:

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
    No, because it never had any competentent (sic) or critical elements. It was always filled with useless shits.

    That’s not to say those three haven’t made it worse.
    You are very harsh on the DfE and its quangos. Some staff are useless. But some are very able. The latter have been worn down by a combination of unmanageable workloads, constant firefighting/crisis management, and a culture from the top (i.e. ministers) that does not encourage any questioning whatsoever of decisions or policy directions. The education 'blob' is not a healthy place to work these days, but some good people still try to do the right thing.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Has Williamson resigned yet?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,402

    ydoethur said:

    ClippP said:

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
    No, because it never had any competentent (sic) or critical elements. It was always filled with useless shits.

    That’s not to say those three haven’t made it worse.
    You are very harsh on the DfE and its quangos. Some staff are useless. But some are very able.
    Really? Name three.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077
    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1295355664659877889

    Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.

    Also sounds like bollocks as they don't have competence (no laughing in the back) over grades in Scotland, Wales, NI.
    Ha Ha Ha are they planning a union jack on Scottish version.
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited August 2020
    Williamson; "problems only became apparent at the weekend".

    You what???

    Williamson "hopes BTECs will be Teacher assessed too".

    Well why don't you ask you useless piece of Turd? These are BTECs that are now 4 days late in being released...
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    Using the reported case number is a bad idea, since the weekend shadow is very strong.
    Sure, so the numbers tomorrow or Weds might show an increase. Nevertheless, the UK has (so far) avoided the big jump in case numbers so many other places saw.

    My gut tells me this is temporary, however.

    There's a natural cycle at work here. People see case numbers drop and stay low, and they relax their guard. And they see that case numbers still aren't rising, and they assume that everything is OK. The big gap between infection and diagnosis pretty much ensures that there will be "swings" on both the low and the high side.
    Depends whether enough people are prepared to let their guard down. If a sufficient percentage of the population remains terrified, or at least cautious, and/or is greatly reducing its overall exposure to others due to WFH, then there may not be enough of those chains of transmission for R to ramp up in any generalised, widespread fashion.

    The UK has an especially large service economy, an exceptionally high take-up of WFH, and did a very good job of terrifying people and guilt tripping them into not doing anything to burden the health service early in the pandemic. That could be enough to keep a lid on the virus. We just don't know.
    I think we will see a slow, steady increase - see Germany for example. Then again, it may still go ballistic.

    I do not expect a fall in cases.
    Presumably Scottish numbers are now going through the roof after the schools all opened...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,402
    edited August 2020
    alex_ said:

    Williamson; "problems only became apparent at the weekend".

    You what???

    Williamson "hopes BTECs will be Teacher assessed to".

    Well why don't you ask you useless piece of Turd? These are BTECs that are now 4 days late in being released...

    Well, in fairness his personal problems, i.e. his impending disgrace and sacking, were only apparent from the weekend.

    The fact that they are not really significant compared to the utter shambles that caused them probably struck him as irrelevant.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1295355664659877889

    Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.

    Also sounds like bollocks as they don't have competence (no laughing in the back) over grades in Scotland, Wales, NI.
    Ha Ha Ha are they planning a union jack on Scottish version.
    Actually on a serious note, it is surprising how so few ,even on here, do not realise that NHS and Education come under each devolved government and attacking HMG for issues on these matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland highlights the lack of knowledge
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    There is a simple solution. Withdraw all of the grades incorrectly issued last week by a deficient Ofqual. All university place offers null and void. Reissue corrected grades. Tell everyone that its all Nicola Sturgeon's fault.

    I can't help thinking that the 4 governments could perhaps have held the line if they'd all worked together. When Sturgeon folded, it was inevitable the others would have to as well.
    Ha Ha Ha, usual fanny trying pin it on Scotland.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    Using the reported case number is a bad idea, since the weekend shadow is very strong.
    Sure, so the numbers tomorrow or Weds might show an increase. Nevertheless, the UK has (so far) avoided the big jump in case numbers so many other places saw.

    My gut tells me this is temporary, however.

    There's a natural cycle at work here. People see case numbers drop and stay low, and they relax their guard. And they see that case numbers still aren't rising, and they assume that everything is OK. The big gap between infection and diagnosis pretty much ensures that there will be "swings" on both the low and the high side.
    Depends whether enough people are prepared to let their guard down. If a sufficient percentage of the population remains terrified, or at least cautious, and/or is greatly reducing its overall exposure to others due to WFH, then there may not be enough of those chains of transmission for R to ramp up in any generalised, widespread fashion.

    The UK has an especially large service economy, an exceptionally high take-up of WFH, and did a very good job of terrifying people and guilt tripping them into not doing anything to burden the health service early in the pandemic. That could be enough to keep a lid on the virus. We just don't know.
    I think we will see a slow, steady increase - see Germany for example. Then again, it may still go ballistic.

    I do not expect a fall in cases.
    We are not really aiming for a fall in cases. If cases fall further, more of the economy will be opened up, bringing cases back to the current level. If cases rise too much, parts of the economy will be closed bringing cases back to the current level.

    I would think case numbers are very likely to be stay in a band from around the current level, to maybe 3-5x higher as a worst case, with the volatility coming in what is open rather than case numbers.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Williamson; "problems only became apparent at the weekend".

    You what???

    Williamson "hopes BTECs will be Teacher assessed to".

    Well why don't you ask you useless piece of Turd? These are BTECs that are now 4 days late in being released...

    Well, in fairness his personal problems, i.e. his impending disgrace and sacking, were only apparent from the weekend.

    The fact that they are not really significant compared to the utter shambles that caused them probably struck him as irrelevant.
    Williamson is useless and should never have held any cabinet position.

    When the dust settles I expect he will be replaced
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,586
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ClippP said:

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
    No, because it never had any competentent (sic) or critical elements. It was always filled with useless shits.

    That’s not to say those three haven’t made it worse.
    You are very harsh on the DfE and its quangos. Some staff are useless. But some are very able.
    Really? Name three.
    Not one of your most noble responses to a comment I made in good faith and which you then chose to edit down to a sentence. Oh well.
  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
    And Swinney and the hapless Sturgeon.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,174
    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.
  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
    And Swinney and the hapless Sturgeon.
    Swinney just survived a vote of no confidence
  • Options

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    I expect you had a better time than very many people to be fair
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,139
    As 70% of Covidians are asymptomatic, is a rise in cases a good thing as long as the vulnerable are properly shielded?

    Might it be better for the young, slim and fit to get it?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    Scott_xP said:
    The one thing that has become ever so obvious that in many ways the UK is now four nations through devolution, and that this chaos by Ofqual actually manifested itself across all four nations, each one adopting it, then each one reverse ferreting when it became untenable

    As much as it may suit some agendas this is Ofquals responsibility
    Does Ofquals order SQA what to do.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The one thing that has become ever so obvious that in many ways the UK is now four nations through devolution, and that this chaos by Ofqual actually manifested itself across all four nations, each one adopting it, then each one reverse ferreting when it became untenable

    As much as it may suit some agendas this is Ofquals responsibility
    Does Ofquals order SQA what to do.
    As I understand it SQA take their lead from Ofqual
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    Which one?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077
    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    Using the reported case number is a bad idea, since the weekend shadow is very strong.
    Sure, so the numbers tomorrow or Weds might show an increase. Nevertheless, the UK has (so far) avoided the big jump in case numbers so many other places saw.

    My gut tells me this is temporary, however.

    There's a natural cycle at work here. People see case numbers drop and stay low, and they relax their guard. And they see that case numbers still aren't rising, and they assume that everything is OK. The big gap between infection and diagnosis pretty much ensures that there will be "swings" on both the low and the high side.
    Depends whether enough people are prepared to let their guard down. If a sufficient percentage of the population remains terrified, or at least cautious, and/or is greatly reducing its overall exposure to others due to WFH, then there may not be enough of those chains of transmission for R to ramp up in any generalised, widespread fashion.

    The UK has an especially large service economy, an exceptionally high take-up of WFH, and did a very good job of terrifying people and guilt tripping them into not doing anything to burden the health service early in the pandemic. That could be enough to keep a lid on the virus. We just don't know.
    I think we will see a slow, steady increase - see Germany for example. Then again, it may still go ballistic.

    I do not expect a fall in cases.
    Presumably Scottish numbers are now going through the roof after the schools all opened...
    we have proper controls in place and grown ups running the country so you cannot compare with rUK.
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:

    This government is like British football clubs in Europe this season a bit shit.

    BT and Sky having done a deal to show all the football on their platforms must be a bit disappointed none are in the semi finals.

    Wrong.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1295276346973851648
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,402

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ClippP said:

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
    No, because it never had any competentent (sic) or critical elements. It was always filled with useless shits.

    That’s not to say those three haven’t made it worse.
    You are very harsh on the DfE and its quangos. Some staff are useless. But some are very able.
    Really? Name three.
    Not one of your most noble responses to a comment I made in good faith and which you then chose to edit down to a sentence. Oh well.
    Truthful though.

    I am afraid the elephant in the room at Education is that for forty years it has not attracted talented civil servants. It is seen as a backwater by the powers that be and therefore anyone earmarked for promotion is kept away from it, while anyway being quietly sidelined has been sent there. Sometimes, they force their way out - Wormald springs to mind - but are not noticeably successful elsewhere either.

    This doesn’t stop them being incredibly arrogant, but it does stop them knowing anything about the subject they are meant to be administering.

    Coupled with how few politicians or special advisers have any sort of link to education other than having had one, and unfortunately that means most education policy is made from a position of ignorance.

    Gove and Cummings made this worse. You would be surprised at how many ex Civil Servants now run academy chains. Heck, there’s even one in charge of OFSTED who embarrassed herself by admitting she did not understand the concept of safeguarding. But since at least the time of Mark Carlisle, education has been a shambolic department.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    As 70% of Covidians are asymptomatic, is a rise in cases a good thing as long as the vulnerable are properly shielded?

    Might it be better for the young, slim and fit to get it?

    I was taken by the tweet from David Paton earlier... if you are worried about your town getting locked down, don't go for a test
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871

    Yorkcity said:

    This government is like British football clubs in Europe this season a bit shit.

    BT and Sky having done a deal to show all the football on their platforms must be a bit disappointed none are in the semi finals.

    Wrong.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1295276346973851648
    To be fair, they were in the semi finals but are not at the time of the post. Technically correct even if it seems misleading.
  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
    And Swinney and the hapless Sturgeon.
    Swinney just survived a vote of no confidence
    I’m sure it wasn’t a partisan vote at all.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1295355664659877889

    Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.

    Also sounds like bollocks as they don't have competence (no laughing in the back) over grades in Scotland, Wales, NI.
    Ha Ha Ha are they planning a union jack on Scottish version.
    Actually on a serious note, it is surprising how so few ,even on here, do not realise that NHS and Education come under each devolved government and attacking HMG for issues on these matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland highlights the lack of knowledge
    It is shocking, those and other matters. They have 4000 asylum seekers bussed up from down south staying in hotels in Glasgow , sent by the home office via a private company with no Scottish government or council involvement and most morons do not realise the Scottish government have no say in the matter. Just one of many examples for sure.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,027
    Downloading Microsoft Flight Simulator 2020 (you can if you set your region to New Zealand otherwise it's tomorrow). You may want to start downloading it now if you want to play it on the weekend - it needs a 91Gb download and it needs to register all the bits separately so it's taking hours and I have a 400mb connection.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The one thing that has become ever so obvious that in many ways the UK is now four nations through devolution, and that this chaos by Ofqual actually manifested itself across all four nations, each one adopting it, then each one reverse ferreting when it became untenable

    As much as it may suit some agendas this is Ofquals responsibility
    Does Ofquals order SQA what to do.
    As I understand it SQA take their lead from Ofqual
    Pathetic
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1295355664659877889

    Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.

    Also sounds like bollocks as they don't have competence (no laughing in the back) over grades in Scotland, Wales, NI.
    Ha Ha Ha are they planning a union jack on Scottish version.
    Actually on a serious note, it is surprising how so few ,even on here, do not realise that NHS and Education come under each devolved government and attacking HMG for issues on these matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland highlights the lack of knowledge
    It is shocking, those and other matters. They have 4000 asylum seekers bussed up from down south staying in hotels in Glasgow , sent by the home office via a private company with no Scottish government or council involvement and most morons do not realise the Scottish government have no say in the matter. Just one of many examples for sure.
    I thought Scotland welcomes all asylum seekers to be honest
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    As 70% of Covidians are asymptomatic, is a rise in cases a good thing as long as the vulnerable are properly shielded?

    Might it be better for the young, slim and fit to get it?

    That's the Swedish approach. Essentially stay home if you're above 60 or have existing co-morbidities.

    The idea is that herd immunity is reached among the group most able to avoid dying.

    The problem with it is that you can't order 35 year olds out, especially those who have to see older people (parents, etc.) for one reason or another. Sweden has therefore ended up with a de facto lockdown, where people aren't going out. This has been economically a big issue - whether you look at PMIs, consumer spending or unemployment, Sweden has performed worse than its neighbours because people still don't feel safe.

    That being said, it's clearly better from a liberty perspective. It just sucks if you're 65.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,027

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The buck has stopped there, the issue has been dealt with. Well done Boris and Gavin I'm sure you'll agree. 😈
    Nope still problems to fix regarding student number restrictions given that clearing has allowed people to swap courses and some people who didn't have the grades on Thursday or 15:59 today now have them..

    But I've been highlighting that issue all day and you still haven't grasped that its an issue that needs to be fixed and hasn't been.
    Student number restrictions have already been lifted. Next issue?
    Have they - where is that flagged as that isn't what the Russell comment says?

    It was announced by Sky this afternoon
    Announced by Sky - I didn't know Boris was using them as his new press secretary?
    That is rather flippant and does not alter the fact the announcement has been made
    Not really when I can't find the information on a government website and one of the main representatives of the universities involved are still calling it a problem.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
    And Swinney and the hapless Sturgeon.
    Swinney just survived a vote of no confidence
    I’m sure it wasn’t a partisan vote at all.
    Moron , and it was not a close call, the unionist dross failed miserably as usual.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,027
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1295355664659877889

    Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.

    Also sounds like bollocks as they don't have competence (no laughing in the back) over grades in Scotland, Wales, NI.
    Ha Ha Ha are they planning a union jack on Scottish version.
    Actually on a serious note, it is surprising how so few ,even on here, do not realise that NHS and Education come under each devolved government and attacking HMG for issues on these matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland highlights the lack of knowledge
    It is shocking, those and other matters. They have 4000 asylum seekers bussed up from down south staying in hotels in Glasgow , sent by the home office via a private company with no Scottish government or council involvement and most morons do not realise the Scottish government have no say in the matter. Just one of many examples for sure.
    On one hand that really doesn't surprise me, on another I'm surprised given the mental health issues that those asylum seekers have exhibited I'm surprise the shipping in didn't get more attention.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The one thing that has become ever so obvious that in many ways the UK is now four nations through devolution, and that this chaos by Ofqual actually manifested itself across all four nations, each one adopting it, then each one reverse ferreting when it became untenable

    As much as it may suit some agendas this is Ofquals responsibility
    Does Ofquals order SQA what to do.
    As I understand it SQA take their lead from Ofqual
    Pathetic
    Well they both applied the same process hence the hand brake turns across the UK
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,354

    As 70% of Covidians are asymptomatic, is a rise in cases a good thing as long as the vulnerable are properly shielded?

    Might it be better for the young, slim and fit to get it?

    I think if you could somehow arrange for every person for whom covid would be a non-event to get covid and nobody else then this would be a great thing. But god knows how you do it in practice. This government has proven incapable of meeting far less complex and difficult challenges than that one.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1295355664659877889

    Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.

    Also sounds like bollocks as they don't have competence (no laughing in the back) over grades in Scotland, Wales, NI.
    Ha Ha Ha are they planning a union jack on Scottish version.
    Actually on a serious note, it is surprising how so few ,even on here, do not realise that NHS and Education come under each devolved government and attacking HMG for issues on these matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland highlights the lack of knowledge
    It is shocking, those and other matters. They have 4000 asylum seekers bussed up from down south staying in hotels in Glasgow , sent by the home office via a private company with no Scottish government or council involvement and most morons do not realise the Scottish government have no say in the matter. Just one of many examples for sure.
    I thought Scotland welcomes all asylum seekers to be honest
    They are not allowed to G, it is decided by Priti and her henchmen, Scottish government have ZERO say in it and despite lobbying are ignored as usual by Home Office. When they get permission they do take them.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,174

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    Which one?
    Arran. Really beautiful, not been before.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
    And Swinney and the hapless Sturgeon.
    Swinney just survived a vote of no confidence
    I’m sure it wasn’t a partisan vote at all.
    Moron , and it was not a close call, the unionist dross failed miserably as usual.
    Kinder politics, nationalist style.

    His level of ineptitude makes gavin Williamson look competent,
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    This government is like British football clubs in Europe this season a bit shit.

    BT and Sky having done a deal to show all the football on their platforms must be a bit disappointed none are in the semi finals.

    Wrong.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1295276346973851648
    Apologies none in the semi finals of the European champions league.
    Man u made into the semis of the Europa league.
    Still shit though.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
    malcolmg said:

    There is a simple solution. Withdraw all of the grades incorrectly issued last week by a deficient Ofqual. All university place offers null and void. Reissue corrected grades. Tell everyone that its all Nicola Sturgeon's fault.

    I can't help thinking that the 4 governments could perhaps have held the line if they'd all worked together. When Sturgeon folded, it was inevitable the others would have to as well.
    Ha Ha Ha, usual fanny trying pin it on Scotland.
    Funny how all the sub branches of the UK parties were gung ho for Sturgeon 'folding'. Shome mishtake shirly.
  • Options

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    Which one?
    Arran. Really beautiful, not been before.
    My family have close ties with Arran
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077
    edited August 2020

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    Which one?
    Arran. Really beautiful, not been before.
    God's country , I am just across the water.
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,701
    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    Why has Williamson still not resigned?
  • Options

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1295355664659877889

    Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.

    Also sounds like bollocks as they don't have competence (no laughing in the back) over grades in Scotland, Wales, NI.
    Ha Ha Ha are they planning a union jack on Scottish version.
    Actually on a serious note, it is surprising how so few ,even on here, do not realise that NHS and Education come under each devolved government and attacking HMG for issues on these matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland highlights the lack of knowledge
    It is shocking, those and other matters. They have 4000 asylum seekers bussed up from down south staying in hotels in Glasgow , sent by the home office via a private company with no Scottish government or council involvement and most morons do not realise the Scottish government have no say in the matter. Just one of many examples for sure.
    I thought Scotland welcomes all asylum seekers to be honest
    So did I. But clearly not when they come via the British Govt.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    Which one?
    Arran. Really beautiful, not been before.
    God's country , I am just across the water.
    In a previous life we could have been a short ferry ride from being neighbours
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    So when do we get the official Robert Smithson 'staggering'.

    I would be staggered if we don't see a four-fold increase in reported cases over the next two weeks in the UK.

    03/08 938 reported cases
    17/08 713 reported cases

    And from slightly more testing as well.

    Meanwhile the covid symptoms app continues to trend down:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

    Consider me officially staggered :smile:
    I still can't make sense of the Georgia deaths graph and the massive lag between increasing cases and the deaths finally increasing.
  • Options

    As 70% of Covidians are asymptomatic, is a rise in cases a good thing as long as the vulnerable are properly shielded?

    Might it be better for the young, slim and fit to get it?

    No.
  • Options
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    This government is like British football clubs in Europe this season a bit shit.

    BT and Sky having done a deal to show all the football on their platforms must be a bit disappointed none are in the semi finals.

    Wrong.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1295276346973851648
    Apologies none in the semi finals of the European champions league.
    Man u made into the semis of the Europa league.
    Still shit though.

    The countries only decent European team was eliminated before lockdown.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,027

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Williamson; "problems only became apparent at the weekend".

    You what???

    Williamson "hopes BTECs will be Teacher assessed to".

    Well why don't you ask you useless piece of Turd? These are BTECs that are now 4 days late in being released...

    Well, in fairness his personal problems, i.e. his impending disgrace and sacking, were only apparent from the weekend.

    The fact that they are not really significant compared to the utter shambles that caused them probably struck him as irrelevant.
    Williamson is useless and should never have held any cabinet position.

    When the dust settles I expect he will be replaced promoted to a more suitable position for his talents
    FTFY as I suspect uselessness isn't a problem in this cabinet. If it is the Government is going to quickly run out of suitable candidates.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369
    edited August 2020
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Williamson; "problems only became apparent at the weekend".

    You what???

    Williamson "hopes BTECs will be Teacher assessed to".

    Well why don't you ask you useless piece of Turd? These are BTECs that are now 4 days late in being released...

    Well, in fairness his personal problems, i.e. his impending disgrace and sacking, were only apparent from the weekend.

    The fact that they are not really significant compared to the utter shambles that caused them probably struck him as irrelevant.
    Williamson is useless and should never have held any cabinet position.

    When the dust settles I expect he will be replaced promoted to a more suitable position for his talents
    FTFY as I suspect uselessness isn't a problem in this cabinet. If it is the Government is going to quickly run out of suitable candidates.
    Time for a reshuffle
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
    And Swinney and the hapless Sturgeon.
    Swinney just survived a vote of no confidence
    I’m sure it wasn’t a partisan vote at all.
    Moron , and it was not a close call, the unionist dross failed miserably as usual.
    Kinder politics, nationalist style.

    His level of ineptitude makes gavin Williamson look competent,
    Foremain reincarnated
  • Options

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    This government is like British football clubs in Europe this season a bit shit.

    BT and Sky having done a deal to show all the football on their platforms must be a bit disappointed none are in the semi finals.

    Wrong.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1295276346973851648
    Apologies none in the semi finals of the European champions league.
    Man u made into the semis of the Europa league.
    Still shit though.

    The countries [sic] only decent European team was eliminated before lockdown.
    If Alisson had been fit for the second leg then we'd still be in the tournament and the favourites.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ClippP said:

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
    No, because it never had any competentent (sic) or critical elements. It was always filled with useless shits.

    That’s not to say those three haven’t made it worse.
    You are very harsh on the DfE and its quangos. Some staff are useless. But some are very able.
    Really? Name three.
    Not one of your most noble responses to a comment I made in good faith and which you then chose to edit down to a sentence. Oh well.
    Truthful though.

    I am afraid the elephant in the room at Education is that for forty years it has not attracted talented civil servants. It is seen as a backwater by the powers that be and therefore anyone earmarked for promotion is kept away from it, while anyway being quietly sidelined has been sent there. Sometimes, they force their way out - Wormald springs to mind - but are not noticeably successful elsewhere either.

    This doesn’t stop them being incredibly arrogant, but it does stop them knowing anything about the subject they are meant to be administering.

    Coupled with how few politicians or special advisers have any sort of link to education other than having had one, and unfortunately that means most education policy is made from a position of ignorance.

    Gove and Cummings made this worse. You would be surprised at how many ex Civil Servants now run academy chains. Heck, there’s even one in charge of OFSTED who embarrassed herself by admitting she did not understand the concept of safeguarding. But since at least the time of Mark Carlisle, education has been a shambolic department.
    Who was the last education secretary you thought did a good job ?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    malcolmg said:

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    Which one?
    Arran. Really beautiful, not been before.
    God's country , I am just across the water.
    In a previous life we could have been a short ferry ride from being neighbours
    Where did you live G
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077

    malcolmg said:

    There is a simple solution. Withdraw all of the grades incorrectly issued last week by a deficient Ofqual. All university place offers null and void. Reissue corrected grades. Tell everyone that its all Nicola Sturgeon's fault.

    I can't help thinking that the 4 governments could perhaps have held the line if they'd all worked together. When Sturgeon folded, it was inevitable the others would have to as well.
    Ha Ha Ha, usual fanny trying pin it on Scotland.
    Funny how all the sub branches of the UK parties were gung ho for Sturgeon 'folding'. Shome mishtake shirly.
    Lot of finger work to delete their handiwork. What a bunch of losers.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,823
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ClippP said:

    alex_ said:

    Frankly if the criticism of the Government is that they should have seen this coming a week or so ago, and acted to head it off, then i can only conclude that people don't set very high standards for the Government.

    Because i do not think it too much to expect that a vaguely competent government (and, frankly, opposition, Scottish Govt, Welsh Executive etc etc) should have seen this coming several months ago and acted to put robust processes in place. Because acting a week or so ago might have headed up the absolute worst of the damage that is now to come as the problems transfer to Universities. But let's not pretend that it would have been an almighty sh*tshow anyway by that time.

    There's a reason why we have multiple Government departments and it should be because they should be able to focus on their own specific areas and put in place plans specific to their areas. The DfE and its ministers has failed at every level.

    Hasn´t the DfE been purged of all its competentent and critical elements by the Cummings-Gove-Johnson dictatorship? They just do whatever they are instructed to these days.

    Johnson has to bear the ultimate responsibility.
    No, because it never had any competentent (sic) or critical elements. It was always filled with useless shits.

    That’s not to say those three haven’t made it worse.
    You are very harsh on the DfE and its quangos. Some staff are useless. But some are very able.
    Really? Name three.
    Not one of your most noble responses to a comment I made in good faith and which you then chose to edit down to a sentence. Oh well.
    Truthful though.

    I am afraid the elephant in the room at Education is that for forty years it has not attracted talented civil servants. It is seen as a backwater by the powers that be and therefore anyone earmarked for promotion is kept away from it, while anyway being quietly sidelined has been sent there. Sometimes, they force their way out - Wormald springs to mind - but are not noticeably successful elsewhere either.

    This doesn’t stop them being incredibly arrogant, but it does stop them knowing anything about the subject they are meant to be administering.

    Coupled with how few politicians or special advisers have any sort of link to education other than having had one, and unfortunately that means most education policy is made from a position of ignorance.

    Gove and Cummings made this worse. You would be surprised at how many ex Civil Servants now run academy chains. Heck, there’s even one in charge of OFSTED who embarrassed herself by admitting she did not understand the concept of safeguarding. But since at least the time of Mark Carlisle, education has been a shambolic department.
    I can remember thinking from the early days under Thatcher that education was not given sufficient priority. You’re right that nothing has fundamentally changed.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369
    edited August 2020
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Spent the last three hours on a lovely walk on one of the Scottish islands. I expect I had a better time than Gavin Williamson did this afternoon.

    Which one?
    Arran. Really beautiful, not been before.
    God's country , I am just across the water.
    In a previous life we could have been a short ferry ride from being neighbours
    Where did you live G
    My wife's father moved to Arran when he left her mother just after the war and raised a second family there.

    She only learned two years ago she had a step brother and sister on Arran
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Has Williamson resigned yet?

    And the Welsh First Minister
    And Swinney and the hapless Sturgeon.
    Swinney just survived a vote of no confidence
    I’m sure it wasn’t a partisan vote at all.
    Moron , and it was not a close call, the unionist dross failed miserably as usual.
    Kinder politics, nationalist style.

    His level of ineptitude makes gavin Williamson look competent,
    Foremain reincarnated
    That’s rather lost on me
This discussion has been closed.