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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there was a betting market on Williamson not being Education Secretary on New Year’s Day I know which side of the bet I’d be backing
BREAKING: Gavin Williamson to perform a full U-turn and award teachers' predicted grades for both A-levels and GCSEs. This will be announced at 4pm #alevels2020 #alevels #gcses2020 #gcseresults #exams
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53807854
Now just waiting for England to do the right thing too at 4pm.
Good news that the government is in touch and listening to people rather than refusing to bend.
England cases by specimen date for yesterday -
We hired Matt Hancock as the new PB intern and well you know...
Things should be fixed now.
Well done both on coming to the right conclusion, eventually.
But really I think Williamson will go in the next reshuffle, reportedly next month, he's been forced into a level of u-turn that Hancock hasn't had to make.
In five years they deserve to lose if this carries on.
FPT: The hospital numbers have been trending downwards more-or-less continuously since mid-April. I'm much more interested to see the latest update on these than I am the (very low) death figures.
Cases identified by positive test have now been creeping steadily upwards for six weeks, but there's still no sign yet of this feeding through into more stress on the healthcare system. Could be that transmission of the virus is very low amongst the elderly, that more and better targeted testing is picking up a larger proportion of all cases presently in circulation, or down to a combination of both factors.
Palatial Betting!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU3OibcindQ&t=176s
Unless the numbers not coming in from China / deferring a year to sit out the pox are enough to make this work. Which just makes for even more uncertainty. Anyway, we expected nothing less. We know the sacked liar is safe in his job as Frank Spencer impersonator because his boss has been sacked twice for lying which makes his sacked once for lying hardly a sacking offence.
In a few weeks the schools attempt to send everyone back full time just as the pox resurgence gets into full swing. Happily Mr Spencer will have proven himself in this crisis to be a bastion of calm and a visionary planner so absolutely nothing can go wrong.
https://twitter.com/themajorityscot/status/1295314872725536769?s=20
I do wonder what plague of frogs will descend next week to make that milestone impossible,
Next thing they should do is lift the cap on domestic students going to the best universities. If that makes shit universities suffer then sucks to be them, free market. They should have been less shit.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1295344389871599616
- more testing is finding asymptomatic cases
- the case incidence is rising, but the demographic infected has changed massively.
Can somebody explain why this guy has so many followers. As far as I can see, he just posts info that's already out.
A whole swathe of students might be back knocking on their doors saying they've now met their offer grades.... UCAS might need to be 'turned off and on again' and restarted??
That will see losers too if that happens....
Unless we want to go back to the heady days when people tried to claim that Southbank was equal to Cambridge.....
!
Oxford are taking a record cohort of over 3,400 at last count pre this U turn.... Cambridge could be in a right pickle... Queens for example have already said they are taking 20% more than planned... forced deferrals to 2021 seems the only option i'd imagine. Screwing up next year's cohort too.
We did everything we could. We listed. We've made changes. The matter is closed. Move on. And for a few loyal frothers it will work. Suspect an awful lot of Tory parents won't forget this one in a hurry though - and thats before the September chaos of "go back to school or we fine you"
And you never know as it will often seem intermittent.
The monstrous unfairness this year is that the algorithm assigned that random bad luck to many students.
As with the few remaining Tory supporters on this forum he highlights the biggest issue this Government has - the inability to see beyond the immediately obvious and the immediate issue.
Hmmmm.... No - Fenland Poly is a frightful dump.
Seriously. There is little doubt that the lower end Unis (in general) take students with lower marks, and teach them an easier syllabus.
What is unfair, is that membership of the Russell Group is the cutoff. Rather than some kind of objective assessment of quality.
If they can't do make it work then they should lose access to all government grant and other funding they are able to get as they should not be prioritising overseas money making over domestic students during a pandemic.
There's bound to be a class somewhere where the algorithm generated better results than expected for the students, and a teacher who will say something along the lines of "I always look at my predictions as a minimum, and expect my students to try and better them"...
This is in no way the teachers` fault. Ofqual were naive to think that, under pressure re school league tables and from parents, that teachers wouldn`t come up with very optimistic grades. If they didn`t, then their pupils would have been disadvantaged against other schools` pupils whose teachers did.
And it's currently still the case that Oxford University cannot take more UK students than they had last year...
Well, according to many people of progressive intent, the housing crisis is down to rich, evil furriners* buying all the properties.
So, applying this idea, we through all the rich evil furriners out of the universities.
Job jobbed. Apart from the funding to pay for it.
On the upside - this year we might have as many people entering medicine as the NHS actually requires....
*Apparently being rich kind of neutralises the racism thing.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-08-15-university-statement-2020-admissions#:~:text=Against this background, the University,offers have now been admitted.
Or their historic stats.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/oxford/Annual Admissions Statistical Report 2020.pdf
A large part of the overprediction was because it's impossible to predict who will fall short on the day, even if you know that some will. Teachers can predict the most likely grade for each student and still overpredict on average.
The external examiner system is supposed to help standards. It does not mean that all universities are equal in output.
They don't offer 100% of their places to UK students. There is slack within the system to accept more.
Incredible really.
And use the Russell Group is an invitation only group but that is because it's entire point was to act as a campaign group for research led unis.