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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: Intriguing new poll question from Fox New – how do you think your neighbours will vote?
Latest Fox News poll finds Biden with 7% lead – but when same sample was asked how they thought neighbours would vote Trump has 5% lead. https://t.co/VlScI7jopR pic.twitter.com/0oRYX1PB36
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Well at least history suggests nothing interesting or major will happen then in the mean time . . . enjoy your breaks!
Maybe he should be tasked with finding a way to turn COVID19 into a chemical weapon to be used against our enemies . . . he'd find a vaccine quicker than Oxford then.
Good job BoZo and chums want to stamp out that sort if thing.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1294172312787353601
That's sad news. Hope that some of it can be recovered in time.
Until I started editing PB I never knew choosing the picture for a thread header could be so much fun.
*Off to find the Corbyn and the Bentley photograph*
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1294168110530953216
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1294167422623191040
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1294168348964642816
And it will be employers who do the enforcing by not allowing people to return to work during the quarantine period.
That has already happened where I work to people who were in Spain.
Presumably that means if you go to France on holiday for 2 weeks, you need to spend them in quarantine, before returning home for another 2 weeks isolation.
If there hadn't been so much over-predicting of grades then the predictions could have been accepted.
Teachers grade predictions turned out to be as reliable as an estate agent's valuation.
However the argument that a slice of the "new" cases being detected by current testing may actually be people who had the virus weeks back with few or no symptoms, and simply have the virus still hanging around in their system, is a persuasive one.
The argument in the video does however require that levels of immunity are significantly higher than the community antibody rates currently being found, in order to 'explain' why the original epidemic has subsided. As regulars will know, I have argued this possibility for some months now, but there remains little evidence for it, other than some hypotheses based on possible T-cell-based immunity (or resistance). There is also the difference between Europe and the US to explain - if the significant declines in Europe were due to community immunity being much higher than currently believed, why hasn't the same happened in the US? There the later surge in case rates has been matched by hospital statistics in states like California (which had an earlier wave that subsided), Florida and Texas.
After all its the pupils of the teacher who predict grades honestly who would lose out.
Do teachers take a vow of omerta or something ?
I suspect the truth lies in between, and another reason why the uptick in case rates isn't being matched by more ICU admissions and deaths is that the so-called second wave is being spread by younger people out 'on the town' tired by the restrictions of lockdown, and as we know the propensity of the young to get seriously ill from Covid is dramatically low. The risk of back transmission to older folk in their families is then the issue.
Moving along the process of normalising relations with North Korea. And now “brokering” the implementation of diplomatic relations between Israel and UAE.
Has his policy in Syria led to an objectively worse outcome than under Obama?
As for his China policy, most sensible people in Asia would consider Trumpism to be a much needed correction from the many years of US negligence and blundering, having failed to realise it was engaged in a Cold War against a ruthless and single minded protagonist.
Black mark for his antagonistic stance on climate change but to be honest I’ve long given up hope that governments will meaningfully move the dial, it’s going to be technology and economics that drive the transition.
Regarding the 20/21 Champions and Europa Leagues betting, in light of the quarantine tennis that is likely to happen.
How will European football be different?
All qualifying ties for the Champions League and Europa League will be single-leg matches. However, home and away matches will return for the Champions League play-off round, due to be played at the end of September.
Both tournaments are likely to be dramatically altered if the COVID-19 pandemic worsens.
UEFA has announced that if a member country enforces travel restrictions which prevent a tie from taking place, the host team must forfeit the match. If both teams’ governments ban travel, UEFA can disqualify both clubs from the tournament.
Firstly, on whether its a genuine threat. France gains from foreign tourism whereas we lose (in that our tourists spend more abroad than overseas tourists spend here). It's in our economic interest to keep our tourists at home, but not in France's to keep them away.
Otherwise it depends on the trips people were planning. My September plan is to transit through France en route for Germany and Italy. If France reciprocates, I guess on the way out I will have to stay in my hotel room on the first night, or worst case vary my route and drive directly to Germany. On the return, I will be arriving into France from Switzerland and already have been away from the UK for a fortnight. So far, so good. If I have to spend a fortnight doing DIY and gardening when I return, so be it. According to Shapps the only checking likely to happen is that someone phones to see if you are at home.
20% seems to be the level of infection where it fades out.
1) People who break it on a massive scale by going to work/school etc. Would expect employers/schools to send them home if they know about it. And good luck keeping a young child quiet about where they were on holiday a week ago
2) People who break it, period. The actual rules on quarantine are ludicrously strict. You CANNOT leave the house for any virtually any reason, even a walk in the immediate vicinity (except to shops where absolutely essential).
This is absurd to the point of ridiculousness on a relative risk basis compared to what is going on elsewhere in the country. It was designed for people much earlier in the crisis having come into probable proven contact with an infected individual, not a country with allegedly relatively high infection rates. What is even more absurd is that the quarantine doesn't apply to people who live in your house but who weren't on holiday with you. So a person living on their own, coming into contact with nobody, probably uninfected isn't even allowed to go for a walk around the block. A person living with somebody else can however pass it on to somebody they live with, who is free to do whatever they want, spreading it to whoever they wish.
Who designs these rules???
In seriousness, that is an excellent post. When you look at the man's actions in foreign affairs, he has been more successful than Obama but, because it's Trump, its gets ignored. I noticed the Guardian online site has devoted more time on its front page to a reporter calling out Trump over his lies than the UAE deal - if Obama had done it, we would have had gushing columns for days.
Shocker...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/nearly-300-workers-test-positive-at-ms-sandwich-factory-in-northampton
I'm sure that there are members of the BJ kakocracy who might give it a go though.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/donald-trump-2016-polls-upset-214461
In particular, note the response of one of the pollsters who called Trump's victory
"I grew up in the South and everybody is very polite down here, and if you want to find out the truth on a hot topic, you can’t just ask the question directly. So, the neighbor is part of the mechanism to get that real answer. In the 11 battle ground states, and 3 non-battleground, there was a significant drop-off between the ballot test question [which candidate you support] and the neighbors’ question [which candidate you believe most of your neighbors support]. The neighbors question result showed a similar result in each state: Hillary dropped [relative to the ballot test question] and Trump comes up across every demographic, every geography. Hillary's drop was between 3 and 11 percent while Trump's increase was between 3 and 7 percent. This pattern existed everywhere from Pennsylvania to Nevada to Utah to Georgia, and it was a constant."
With teachers thinking that 40% of grades should be even higher.
They seem to have been an incredible success.
Why would anyone go on a walking holiday in Wales when the UK has Covid hotspots in Leicester, Bradford and Oldham?
Give me one minute.
I suspect that's part of the explanation but only a part.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/10/sandwich-firm-fill-vacancies-factory-east-european-workers
btw SMT means senior management team, I prefer "shirkers, Malingerers and timewasters" though.
Considering we have had about 50k deaths with about 7% of the country infected and the NHS never overwhelmed it seems quite plausible that if we had seen the worst case of the NHS overwhelmed and 50% infected then 500k deaths would be quite plausible as a worst case.
What's ridiculous about that?
One of those to test positive was Bakers' Union's branch secretary for the factory, Nicolae Macari.
He said he tested positive on 4 August, along with his mother and father - who also work at Greencore - and his wife.
I dont believe there is any possibility that, even had we done nothing at all, we'd be looking at death rates of half to two million.
There's lots and lots of strange stuff and apparent loopholes in the rules, and it makes more sense to think the government are playing a percentage game with R rather than going for absolute suppression in every instance.
It is more than likely that international football will not be viable for many months
A lot of people, myself included, got a lot of egg on their face predicting Clinton would win (and reasonably well) in 2016. One can fully see why people don't want to do so again, and indeed social media is chock-full of centre-left people saying "mark my words, Trump will do it again".
But that does seem to me to be an over-correction and slight misremembering of 2016. At times, Clinton's lead in the poll averages was as high as Biden's is now, but Trump also led at times (albeit much less often), and polls ranged fairly widely (as there was no incumbent and views are always a little less settled in such cases). By election day, the lead was low single figures, very much in line with the actual result. Conventional wisdom assumed the "pussy grabbing" tape would harm Trump more than it did, and that Clinton would get a late swing - but the polls didn't say that and it didn't happen.
My conclusion is there isn't too much wrong with conventional US polls. Regardless of what this index says, if Biden maintains an average lead of 7 or 8% (which is around where we are depending on the tracker), he will win the popular vote by probably in the range 6-9% and that will win the election for him - it's just not close enough to realistically be susceptible to the vagaries of the electoral college.
He might not maintain that polling lead, of course - it could shrink or could grow. But I see "I'm voting Biden but expect Trump to win" as a reaction to 2016, nothing more (and indeed the twin brother is the overconfident MAGA-fan "I'm voting Trump and expect him to win as the polls were fake news last time too!")
I still think it’s more likely than not that Biden wins at a canter but I thought the same about Clinton. Hindsight’s jury seems to now say it was always obvious Trump would win because despite the polls, Clinton was such an uncompelling candidate. Hmmm...
One of the problems with a lockdown was that if it worked, people would complain it wasn’t necessary.
Italy did next to nothing in the early weeks when the virus was spreading through Lombardy - they had a terrible regional crisis with overflowing hospitals, but no sign of a death rate approaching anywhere near those sorts of levels. Similarly in Iran - one of the earliest outbreaks - where the 'action' they were taking included going out and licking shrines and the like. I well remember Eadric linking to Twitter videos of people dropping dead in the street and suggesting Iran may be hiding deaths on a truly epic scale - yet nothing along those lines has emerged since then.
If someone is going to a holiday cottage in Brittany, why do they give a stuff if Paris and Marseilles have problems?
Are people in Tunbridge Wells that fussed about Leicester and Manchester (beyond general interest in how the whole thing is being handled)?
I reckon this could be a useful tool, but calibrating it to overcome these biasses is not easy.
Given in the US a random pair of neighbours are more likely than not to vote the same way given urban-rural polarisation of the vote and so forth, this is either
i. Projection
or
ii. People disliking/not knowing their neighbours.
Was a similar question ever asked in the midterms, or in 2016 ?
Some people would go to France because they live there.
As for Eadric he's full of nonsense. Ignore.
Iran isn't the UK. One reason the death tolls are higher in the West is that the virus is terrible for the elderly of whom we have a lot. In countries with poorer healthcare the elderly have largely already died so aren't there to be vulnerable to it. In Iran only 6% of the population is over 65, the figure in the UK is over 18%