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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020: Intriguing new poll question from Fox New – how do you

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  • I do not see how; it is not backdated. If your employer makes 20 or more people redundant, there must be a consultation period. Only after that consultation can they dismiss people, which is when your notice period starts. (Mine has five weeks left.) They can't backdate when this started, and aiui they cannot furlough you now if you were not already furloughed.
    Indeed - my point is that if someone has already been furloughed once a consultation has been done their notice can then be furlough. How is it job retention if the job has been made redundant? This is likely to come up as a scenario a lot as the scheme ends...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    malcolmg said:

    Have to agree and all the thanks you get for your efforts is to be considered as either too stupid to be able to grade students or alternatively you are a liar and a fraud.
    You do get more thanks than that, in person.

    But at this moment, I’m apparently being blamed for schools being shut, when the government shut them and has no clear idea of how to reopen them, giving confused, conflicting and often impossible instructions and then shouts and stamps its feet when this is pointed out to them. I’m blamed for the exam debacle, when it was the government set up a flawed system and then put in place measures that warped it further.

    And even in normal times, I’m blamed if not every child gets an A* at A-level, or becomes a model citizen, or does something stupid out of school hours.

    And I’m paid less than I would get for the equivalent job in an office.

    So - why do I bother?

    If the government want to destroy education entirely, they’ve done a damn good job.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    LadyG said:

    Starmer is utterly charmless and boring, and has the problem of Scotland, Sunak has a genuine if geeky/weedy charisma, and is very smart. And doesn’t need Scotland.

    Yes I can see Sunak winning a smallish 2024 majority as Recovery Man, after a well timed Boris resignation.
    Either that or Starmer leading a highly unstable and potentially short lived coalition and losing to Sunak as the incumbent.
  • justin124 said:

    I have just been reading up about Warren Mitchell and came across this on Wilkipedia :
    'He studied physical chemistry at University College, Oxford as an RAF cadet student on a six-month university short course which the armed services sponsored for potential officers.'
    That was in 1944 . Mitchell obviously never graduated and his experience of Oxford was pretty brief. I was unaware of such courses. Do they still exist?

    A couple of threads back someone posted a video clip from 1970 of Warren Mitchell reminiscing about Oxford.

    Universities still today offer full and short courses to serving armed forces personnel.

    During the war, there were also shortened degree courses for ordinary students, which aiui were awarded on a pass/fail basis.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,138
    LadyG said:

    Anecdote Klaxon.

    My hairdresser tells me that her friend in Croydon council says the government has plans to seal off London overnight, by putting the army all along the M25. Soon.

    Now, i ascribe a veracity value of about 0.01 to this gossip. Sure, HMG is preparing for all scenarios, but this is extreme.

    However it is interesting as a picture of how ordinary people are approaching the virus. They don’t think it’s over. They’re still scared. They’re probably right.

    As someone who lives about half a mile inside the M25, and rarely ventures much further into London than that, I sure hope your veracity value is on the money!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited August 2020

    Surprised this visit hasn't affected recent polling. Or effected as Scottish Tories might say.

    https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1294214186357133312?s=20

    I think he poses a real threat to any chances Labour has.

    Charisma out of 10 - 9.5 vs SKS 1.0

    Progressive - 8.5 vs SKS ??

    Anti Establishment 1.0 vs SKS 0.5

    Likeability 9.0 vs 4.5

    etc etc

    I think Labour are screwed without a long deep painful economic decline and even then not sure the current leader has enough personality to exploit that.

    Hope i am wrong but although i can see Richis scores falling cant see SKS's rising that much
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,615
    Many thanks to those who shared their retaking A-levels stories. Certainly confirmed my bias that retaking may be a better option than just settling for a second/third/fourth university/course choice.

    On topic, the fox news poll is intriguing (and terrifying). I've basically decided now I will be cashed out and green before election day, just trying to time my exit.

    On the night itself, I'll be placing bets as information comes in, in the hope of outrunning other bettors. But I suspect the speed and knowledge of punters will have increased.

    Last time around, I remember you could still back Clinton to win popular vote and make good money long after it was obvious she would win that once California came in. I don't expect that kind of opportunity to come again but still hoping.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,559
    edited August 2020

    Indeed - my point is that if someone has already been furloughed once a consultation has been done their notice can then be furlough. How is it job retention if the job has been made redundant? This is likely to come up as a scenario a lot as the scheme ends...
    One of the first changes made to the furlough scheme was the ability to re-employ and furlough a former member of staff who had left and their new job had disappeared.

    This is no different from that, it's keeping furloughed former employees off the unemployment queue for longer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    Did the truth ever come out about that rather plump, middle aged
    I thought for a moment of great surprise that you were going to say something about a certain RT talk show host!

    On the substantive point, of course we know what she was doing. She was cleaning the windows, and somebody asked her to move some waste paper that happened to be there.

    It had nothing to do with rigging the election. How could you even think that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    eristdoof said:

    If Biden wins Florida, he wins the White House. Not just because of Fl but because it means that enough other states will have moved to the Dems.

    If Trump wins Florida, Biden still has a few other realistic combinatins to win, the most famous being Wi-Mi-Pa.
    The needle is thin to thread for Biden without Florida, and thinner for Trump. The probability either one wins the whitehouse and does not have Florida is low.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Watching radical feminists scrap with the pro trans lobby over who has the right to call themselves a woman is a bit like watching alien versus predator for me.
  • LadyG said:

    Starmer is utterly charmless and boring, and has the problem of Scotland, Sunak has a genuine if geeky/weedy charisma, and is very smart. And doesn’t need Scotland.

    Yes I can see Sunak winning a smallish 2024 majority as Recovery Man, after a well timed Boris resignation.
    Rishi Sunak has the ability and charisma to win. In short, he looks the part, direct from central casting.

    So the only question is how Rishi gets to be leader of the party (and hence already Prime Minister) before the election. In short, will Boris resign? A personal scandal can be ruled out because his colourful private life is already priced in. And what could happen politically to force out Boris but not his Chancellor? The other danger for Rishi-backers is that if he does fall out with Boris (or more realistically Dominic Cummings) then Sunak is richer than the Queen so can easily afford to flounce.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    A couple of threads back someone posted a video clip from 1970 of Warren Mitchell reminiscing about Oxford.

    Universities still today offer full and short courses to serving armed forces personnel.

    During the war, there were also shortened degree courses for ordinary students, which aiui were awarded on a pass/fail basis.
    Didn’t they also offer shortened courses for demobbed students in both 1919 and 1945? Or am I confusing that with these shortened courses?

    Incidentally another, even more famous actor went on a similar course at Exeter College before joining the RAF - Richard Jenkins (as he was then).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    moonshine said:

    The quasi sacking of Javid and swift elevation of Rishi becomes more intriguing the more I see of him. Because it’s becoming much harder to characterise this as Boris / Cummings forcing out a robust counterweight and putting in an inexperienced puppet.

    Rishi’s potential (both electorally and administratively) would have been obvious to Boris before he appointed him. Which makes it start to look much more like active succession planning. One has to wonder what’s been said between them behind closed doors.

    There’s a lot to play out from this recession still but a hypothetical Rishi vs Starmer contest in 2024 (or beyond) would be quite a one sided affair one feels.
    Worried by this post. Not the prediction as such - could be right could be wrong - but the lexicology. Not only do we have "Boris" now - and people know my views on that - but we seem to be embracing "Rishi" instead of Sunak. Another brand taking off - people talking about a Tory politician who was unknown a year ago as if he's an intimate acquaintance - and I sense I am powerless to stop it. Wits end.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,932
    As I've been alerted to this:

    Palatial betting?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617


    This article in The Metro has pictures of these cranks shouting abuse and also reports they were taking down number plates too. In order to shame people to death no less.

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/07/05/scottish-nationalists-tell-english-stay-fk-away-blockade-border-12947735/
    I hadn't been following this story at all - something else to deal with at the relevant time - but a sudden thought made me google - and yes Sean Clerkin was involved.

    Very much a wild card - not someone to be taken as at all representative. The last time I'd heard of him he was being thrown out of Holyrood Parliament for protesting against the FM.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    kinabalu said:

    Worried by this post. Not the prediction as such - could be right could be wrong - but the lexicology. Not only do we have "Boris" now - and people know my views on that - but we seem to be embracing "Rishi" instead of Sunak. Another brand taking off - people talking about a Tory politician who was unknown a year ago as if he's an intimate acquaintance - and I sense I am powerless to stop it. Wits end.
    My mother’s pension age friends have called him Dishi Rishi since long before the Rishi’s Dishies scheme.

    It’s all a bit unfair on Keir because in a runoff between the two, he’s the one who comes across as the one who’s socially distant and not “one of us”. And yet Sunak (just to make you feel happy on a Friday!) is the one married to the billionaire. Politics is all perception.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    A couple of threads back someone posted a video clip from 1970 of Warren Mitchell reminiscing about Oxford.

    Universities still today offer full and short courses to serving armed forces personnel.

    During the war, there were also shortened degree courses for ordinary students, which aiui were awarded on a pass/fail basis.
    I have a friend whose father attended Oxford on a course related to his becoming an Army Officer . This was towards the end of World War 2. He was not there long and I presume he went there on the same basis as Mitchell. Six months was far too short to obtain any degree. It seems stretching things for such people to be able to claim to have been Oxford-educated in a meaningful sense- though I am aware of Jeffrey Archer! I am just wondering whether similar courses are available today on which people can seek to enroll.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kinabalu said:

    Worried by this post. Not the prediction as such - could be right could be wrong - but the lexicology. Not only do we have "Boris" now - and people know my views on that - but we seem to be embracing "Rishi" instead of Sunak. Another brand taking off - people talking about a Tory politician who was unknown a year ago as if he's an intimate acquaintance - and I sense I am powerless to stop it. Wits end.
    ‘I sense I am powerless to stop it’

    In your normal life are you generally capable of steering UK public opinion as you wish?

    You are Vladimir Putin and I claim my 5 bit-rubles
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    ydoethur said:

    You do get more thanks than that, in person.

    But at this moment, I’m apparently being blamed for schools being shut, when the government shut them and has no clear idea of how to reopen them, giving confused, conflicting and often impossible instructions and then shouts and stamps its feet when this is pointed out to them. I’m blamed for the exam debacle, when it was the government set up a flawed system and then put in place measures that warped it further.

    And even in normal times, I’m blamed if not every child gets an A* at A-level, or becomes a model citizen, or does something stupid out of school hours.

    And I’m paid less than I would get for the equivalent job in an office.

    So - why do I bother?

    If the government want to destroy education entirely, they’ve done a damn good job.
    But you are touching young hearts and moulding young minds.

    Can't do that in an office.

    Get arrested.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kinabalu said:

    Worried by this post. Not the prediction as such - could be right could be wrong - but the lexicology. Not only do we have "Boris" now - and people know my views on that - but we seem to be embracing "Rishi" instead of Sunak. Another brand taking off - people talking about a Tory politician who was unknown a year ago as if he's an intimate acquaintance - and I sense I am powerless to stop it. Wits end.
    Quite right too, to feel like that - both at the foolishness of such shamefully uncritical thinking and the longer-term problems it is storing up. It's not just social but mental distancing one has to practice when politicians are around.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Many thanks to those who shared their retaking A-levels stories. Certainly confirmed my bias that retaking may be a better option than just settling for a second/third/fourth university/course choice.

    Maybe. It depends what the actual choices will be, not the theoretical ones. The conventional wisdom is that it will be easier to get into university this year than it will be in 2021.

    Then there are choices of university and course. If all that counts is Oxbridge, that is different from the subject being the important thing. Which is it in your case? @Foxy has already told us he chose medicine at not-Oxford over not-medicine at Oxford, but I can certainly recall people being advised to apply for less popular courses to get into Oxford.

    One thing I've not seen mentioned here that I've seen three times IRL is students doing a BA/BSc somewhere followed by a Masters at Oxbridge. Best of both worlds.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    kinabalu said:

    But you are touching young hearts and moulding young minds.

    Can't do that in an office.

    Get arrested.
    That last one seems a bit of a non-sequitur.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    This exams stuff is still going on. Bet it doesn't hurt the Tory lead though, such is life

    There's a new poll?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    The Valiant, someone earlier posted they'd deliberately done that to highlight how vulnerable the site is to hacking, having contacted Mr. 1000 but not yet received a reply.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    As I've been alerted to this:

    Palatial betting?

    I suppose it is the palace of Westminster.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Rishi Sunak has the ability and charisma to win. In short, he looks the part, direct from central casting.

    So the only question is how Rishi gets to be leader of the party (and hence already Prime Minister) before the election. In short, will Boris resign? A personal scandal can be ruled out because his colourful private life is already priced in. And what could happen politically to force out Boris but not his Chancellor? The other danger for Rishi-backers is that if he does fall out with Boris (or more realistically Dominic Cummings) then Sunak is richer than the Queen so can easily afford to flounce.
    Yes I think Boris will resign. I thought it might be early 2021 - post brexit - but he now seems a bit peppier. However he is still a very old new father, he will have achieved greatness just by winning and delivering brexit, if he steers us to recovery in, say, 2023, he could gracefully retire to write his memoirs (for millions) and play with his toddler. TODDLER.

    Sunak takes over and wins a handy majority in 2024 against a boring Starmer with no policies, a Scottish problem, and a racialist party still crippled by Jew-hatred.

    Job done.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,165

    This exams stuff is still going on. Bet it doesn't hurt the Tory lead though, such is life

    The Tories ought to be blamed for shutting down schools.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,753

    I think the problem for colleges in the round is just that their overall results have been held to 2019 values, whereas other institutions have been allowed to inflate to a greater or lesser degree. So if you have just got your A Levels from Bigtown College, the uni place you were hoping for has been nabbed by someone from St Smallcohort's (NB St C's could be independent, or it could be an 11-18 comp). And the best that can happen now is probably a deferred place.

    There's also a problem that, with the weighting put on an institution's past performance- pretty rubbish if you are an unusually able student for the college. And the conversion of continuous(ish) rankings into discrete grades seems to have been done in the meanest way possible, which is why some students have been downgraded from a C to a U, rather than C to D.

    So yes, it's a big fat mess. But the national KPI of making the grade distribution similar has been met, so why should Downing Street care?
    My local sixth form college (very large and very successful) principal is absolutely furious. Partly because some high grades have not been met, but mainly because of the number of U grades in several subjects that have not had a fail for years. Those that know the sector well will know that many subjects have A-level pass rates of 100% year after year (it's actually quite hard to fail an A-level - those students that are likely to usually don't end up completing the course). To find, for no good reason, many subjects falling below 100% has made him incandescent. This isn't over yet.
  • justin124 said:

    I have a friend whose father attended Oxford on a course related to his becoming an Army Officer . This was towards the end of World War 2. He was not there long and I presume he went there on the same basis as Mitchell. Six months was far too short to obtain any degree. It seems stretching things for such people to be able to claim to have been Oxford-educated in a meaningful sense- though I am aware of Jeffrey Archer! I am just wondering whether similar courses are available today on which people can seek to enroll.
    Many universities offer short courses or diplomas or CPD (continued professional development) courses. Distance learning too.
    https://www.conted.ox.ac.uk/about/undergraduate-diplomas
    https://www.ice.cam.ac.uk/courses/undergraduate-certificates-and-diplomas
    and there's more!
  • @alexquant Thanks, I've relayed your message.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    My local sixth form college (very large and very successful) principal is absolutely furious. Partly because some high grades have not been met, but mainly because of the number of U grades in several subjects that have not had a fail for years. Those that know the sector well will know that many subjects have A-level pass rates of 100% year after year (it's actually quite hard to fail an A-level - those students that are likely to usually don't end up completing the course). To find, for no good reason, many subjects falling below 100% has made him incandescent. This isn't over yet.
    Well then, they can actually take the exams?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893

    Watching radical feminists scrap with the pro trans lobby over who has the right to call themselves a woman is a bit like watching alien versus predator for me.

    Well, the best move is keep quiet, and get off planet before you are noticed....

    So yes.
  • ydoethur said:

    Didn’t they also offer shortened courses for demobbed students in both 1919 and 1945? Or am I confusing that with these shortened courses?

    Incidentally another, even more famous actor went on a similar course at Exeter College before joining the RAF - Richard Jenkins (as he was then).
    https://www.facebook.com/BBCArchive/videos/1970-nationwide-warren-mitchell-on-oxford/662833444215017/

    Mitchell mentions meeting Richard Burton at Oxford who inspired him to become an actor.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    LadyG said:

    In what way is his first sentence wrong?
    I wouldn't say any of it is wrong as such. I'm probably being a snob but it's just the cod prose. Presenting banal sentiment as a weighty and noble and thrilling call to arms. You could do it so much better. Indeed you do. :smile:
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    That’s quite a Good Goodwin.

    Only a minority of Labour MPs think schools should teach kids respect for “authority”

    What do the rest suggest schools should do? Instill a respect for anarchy?
  • Monarchist hackers :lol:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    Watching radical feminists scrap with the pro trans lobby over who has the right to call themselves a woman is a bit like watching alien versus predator for me.

    To me the answer seems rather obvious. All those who have been through the very difficult and painful sex change process have earned the right to be known as their acquired gender. Those who have not, have not.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    LadyG said:

    That’s quite a Good Goodwin.

    Only a minority of Labour MPs think schools should teach kids respect for “authority”

    What do the rest suggest schools should do? Instill a respect for anarchy?
    Unless Gooders has misquoted or abbreviated the meaning out of it, the q is 'Schools shd teach kids authority'. What does that even mean?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    LadyG said:

    That’s quite a Good Goodwin.

    Only a minority of Labour MPs think schools should teach kids respect for “authority”

    What do the rest suggest schools should do? Instill a respect for anarchy?
    The word respect is missing, should they not be taught to evaluate authority and if it deserves it then respect it?
  • Unless Gooders has misquoted or abbreviated the meaning out of it, the q is 'Schools shd teach kids authority'. What does that even mean?
    And the first question shows most think the job has already been done and young people do already respect British values.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139

    To me the answer seems rather obvious. All those who have been through the very difficult and painful sex change process have earned the right to be known as their acquired gender. Those who have not, have not.
    And if the former, never have their identity or gender questioned on PB ever again.
  • "Young people don't respect British values" - what does this mean?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    edited August 2020
    LadyG said:

    Well then, they can actually take the exams?
    Too late. The big, big drawback with A-levels - one the Cummings/Gove reforms have made much worse - is that universities have made their decisions based on performance in exams in a one month window marked by suspect processes before students can appeal the grades. And they don't change their minds.

    With GCSEs, things can be fudged. After all, a high percentage just stay on at their school, and God knows FE colleges are not usually in a position to be fussy.

    But A-levels are one strike. And these ones have gone horribly, catastrophically wrong.

    (I would also add that for some subjects, 'A-levels' per se are not available, as coursework elements will be inadmissable. That means they will probably bear less resemblance to a normal year's grades than teacher estimates.)

    One thing this shows is that our system of assessment at 18 is wrong, and needs radical reform. Somehow, among the many suggestions put forward, we need to find a way to have university applications en masse after the results are known.

    The obvious suggestion is a foundation year at a local college for those planning to go on to uni. That would also give students a chance to find out if they liked the course/subject.

    And then only have two year undergraduate degrees at university. An end to Part 1.

    But whether that could work in practice is another question.
  • To me the answer seems rather obvious. All those who have been through the very difficult and painful sex change process have earned the right to be known as their acquired gender. Those who have not, have not.
    It all seems a bit angels dancing on pin heads. If you are manager of Boots and want to know how much lipstick to stock, the criterion for womanhood is different from that used for how many tampons, and different again from how many customer toilets might be needed. The arguments though, other than for sport, tend to revolve around ethereal notions of some unspecified essence of womanliness.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Clearly making money is more important than shutting off one of the main sources of new infections

    11 The President of Spain by Night, Ramón Mas, announces that the nightlife sector will take to court the decision of the central government and the autonomies to close nightclubs, bars and dance halls throughout the country, to be considered this decision a "total aberration" that has been taken "without speaking" with the employers of leisure or with businessmen, and without offering any rescue or aid plan, he has assured, for this sector that represents 1.8% of the GDP, which generates 200,000 jobs and comprises 25,000 companies
  • wf1954wf1954 Posts: 16
    justin124 said:

    I have a friend whose father attended Oxford on a course related to his becoming an Army Officer . This was towards the end of World War 2. He was not there long and I presume he went there on the same basis as Mitchell. Six months was far too short to obtain any degree. It seems stretching things for such people to be able to claim to have been Oxford-educated in a meaningful sense- though I am aware of Jeffrey Archer! I am just wondering whether similar courses are available today on which people can seek to enroll.
    Your friend's recollection definitely ties in with my father's experience. In 1942 at the age of 17, he joined a Royal Navy officer training programme called The Y Scheme. The first 6 months involved studying at Glasgow University.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    And if the former, never have their identity or gender questioned on PB ever again.
    Absolutely. Anybody who genuinely feels strongly enough that their body does not match their gender, to go through everything involved in a sex change, deserves immense respect and support.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893
    ydoethur said:

    Too late. The big, big drawback with A-levels - one the Cummings/Gove reforms have made much worse - is that universities have made their decisions based on performance in exams in a one month window marked by suspect processes before students can appeal the grades. And they don't change their minds.

    With GCSEs, things can be fudged. After all, a high percentage just stay on at their school, and God knows FE colleges are not usually in a position to be fussy.

    But A-levels are one strike. And these ones have gone horribly, catastrophically wrong.

    (I would also add that for some subjects, 'A-levels' per se are not available, as coursework elements will be inadmissable. That means they will probably bear less resemblance to a normal year's grades than teacher estimates.)

    One thing this shows is that our system of assessment at 18 is wrong, and needs radical reform. Somehow, among the many suggestions put forward, we need to find a way to have university applications en masse after the results are known.

    The obvious suggestion is a foundation year at a local college for those planning to go on to uni. That would also give students a chance to find out if they liked the course/subject.

    And then only have two year undergraduate degrees at university. An end to Part 1.

    But whether that could work in practice is another question.
    Or modify University entry and/or the A-Level exam schedule so that the results are available before interview.

    I did 2 A Levels a year early.

    When I got a 2 pass offer from my university of choice, at interview, it startled the interviewing professor when I pointed out that he had just given me a place....
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    "Young people don't respect British values" - what does this mean?

    It means they don’t think like a seventy year old Telegraph reader.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    That last one seems a bit of a non-sequitur.
    Yes, sorry. Forgetting we're not chatting down the pub after a few.

    My serious point is that teaching - for those who both like it and are good at it - must provide a level of satisfaction hard to find in an office job. So this (I'm thinking) makes it hard to leave even if one gets periodically pissed off and the stress is high and the money not great.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    Too late. The big, big drawback with A-levels - one the Cummings/Gove reforms have made much worse - is that universities have made their decisions based on performance in exams in a one month window marked by suspect processes before students can appeal the grades. And they don't change their minds.

    With GCSEs, things can be fudged. After all, a high percentage just stay on at their school, and God knows FE colleges are not usually in a position to be fussy.

    But A-levels are one strike. And these ones have gone horribly, catastrophically wrong.

    (I would also add that for some subjects, 'A-levels' per se are not available, as coursework elements will be inadmissable. That means they will probably bear less resemblance to a normal year's grades than teacher estimates.)

    One thing this shows is that our system of assessment at 18 is wrong, and needs radical reform. Somehow, among the many suggestions put forward, we need to find a way to have university applications en masse after the results are known.

    The obvious suggestion is a foundation year at a local college for those planning to go on to uni. That would also give students a chance to find out if they liked the course/subject.

    And then only have two year undergraduate degrees at university. An end to Part 1.

    But whether that could work in practice is another question.
    That's an interesting point. One issue with Scotland which PBTories have been ignoring in their haste to say SNPBad is that the exams are Highers, more like AS levels than A levels, and that the university degree is a 4 year system - the first year being multiple subjects eg at Edinburgh. So there is something of that aspect there already, which may be helpful in dealing with the various expectations - justified or, as many PBTories insist, otherwise (which last doesn't make sense unless you send your children to a private school or other one which benefits disproportionately from the mass marking down which has now been cancelled).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    To me the answer seems rather obvious. All those who have been through the very difficult and painful sex change process have earned the right to be known as their acquired gender. Those who have not, have not.
    I couldn`t disagree with you more.

    Individuals should be able to identify as any gender they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this.

    As for the operation itself, which is gruesome and removes healthy tissue to mimic a sex (not gender) they are not, the surgeon who does such a thing gets no respect from me.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Stocky said:

    I couldn`t disagree with you more.

    Individuals should be able to identify as any gender they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this.

    As for the operation itself, which is gruesome and removes healthy tissue to mimic a sex (not gender) they are not, the surgeon who does such a thing gets no respect from me.
    What about in sport?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    It all seems a bit angels dancing on pin heads. If you are manager of Boots and want to know how much lipstick to stock, the criterion for womanhood is different from that used for how many tampons, and different again from how many customer toilets might be needed. The arguments though, other than for sport, tend to revolve around ethereal notions of some unspecified essence of womanliness.
    There have always been transvestites, drag queens, and very feminine gay men, who purchase 'women's' beauty items. That has not really changed, it's just now that a subset appears to want gender to be assigned on the basis of a notion - one that can change daily if desired. I don't see why the state should tie itself in knots trying to fit around this. If you like your willy and want to keep it, more power to you, but you don't get to use the ladies' loos. That should be the *ahem* long and short of it.
  • A fun week:
    1. My dad rushed into hospital with a prolapsed hernia. Expected emergency surgery delayed then cancelled as its too risky in his condition and its better to manage it as is. He's home now but the daft old sod really should have got it sewn up years ago FFS.
    2. The boy and his A-Levels. Downgraded vs expectations but scrapes over the line to get the minimum requirement for his primary choice. Which is more than a lot got but still epic stress
    3. Brilliant interview on Tuesday with once in a blue moon opportunity. That has now progressed to what appears to be confirmed subject to contract. I'll need to get a Ltd company up and running...
    4. Rumblings about the state of the business turned into a "theoretical" conversation with the CEO about restructure on Tuesday has turned this afternoon into my notice period starts 1st September albeit with a promise of a genuine review at the end of October where cancelling it is an option or else PILON+accrued holidays from 1st November.

    Its no wonder I am on happy pills and alcohol :smile:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893
    Scott_xP said:
    No one should ever get less than an A* in their first language.

    In fact, exams in English can be abolished. Think of the savings.....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories ought to be blamed for shutting down schools.
    Why?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    ydoethur said:

    Without going into details - let’s just say the exam boards in effect accepted my judgements. So personally, I have not been branded a cheat or a liar with the exception of a couple of unpleasant people on here.

    But I’m still very angry about the shambolic way this has been handled. It really does make me wonder whether it’s worth staying in teaching, because what’s the point if everything you do is misjudged on the basis of a flawed algorithm incorrectly applied? Why put up with the hassle for an extra five weeks’ holiday a year?
    I hope no one`s branding you a "cheat or a liar" Ydoethur.

    As we agreed the other day, it was naive in the extreme for Ofqual to assume that teacher grades would be consistent with previous years. Teachers are , after all, under pressure from a school league table perspective and from a parent perspective.

    Teachers were always, then, going to grade pupils at the, ahem, top end of expectations. Pointing this out is not to in any way place blame. If the teachers at my daughter`s school didn`t do this at least to the mean that teachers did overall across the country then I would be annoyed with the teachers.

    So teachers are not being called cheats or liars - and anyone saying that they are should be ashamed of themselves.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    A fun week:
    1. My dad rushed into hospital with a prolapsed hernia. Expected emergency surgery delayed then cancelled as its too risky in his condition and its better to manage it as is. He's home now but the daft old sod really should have got it sewn up years ago FFS.
    2. The boy and his A-Levels. Downgraded vs expectations but scrapes over the line to get the minimum requirement for his primary choice. Which is more than a lot got but still epic stress
    3. Brilliant interview on Tuesday with once in a blue moon opportunity. That has now progressed to what appears to be confirmed subject to contract. I'll need to get a Ltd company up and running...
    4. Rumblings about the state of the business turned into a "theoretical" conversation with the CEO about restructure on Tuesday has turned this afternoon into my notice period starts 1st September albeit with a promise of a genuine review at the end of October where cancelling it is an option or else PILON+accrued holidays from 1st November.

    Its no wonder I am on happy pills and alcohol :smile:

    Sounds like quite a roller coaster RP! At least RP Jr got the grades (just) and you got the job.

    Stay strong feller, and enjoy the booze!
  • Stocky said:

    I couldn`t disagree with you more.

    Individuals should be able to identify as any gender they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this.

    As for the operation itself, which is gruesome and removes healthy tissue to mimic a sex (not gender) they are not, the surgeon who does such a thing gets no respect from me.
    Individuals should be able to identify as any ethnicity they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    nichomar said:

    What about in sport?
    Sport participation is based on sex not gender. Always has been. "Gender" as a word wasn`t even invented until, I think the 50-60s, and sport preceded this!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    A fun week:
    1. My dad rushed into hospital with a prolapsed hernia. Expected emergency surgery delayed then cancelled as its too risky in his condition and its better to manage it as is. He's home now but the daft old sod really should have got it sewn up years ago FFS.
    2. The boy and his A-Levels. Downgraded vs expectations but scrapes over the line to get the minimum requirement for his primary choice. Which is more than a lot got but still epic stress
    3. Brilliant interview on Tuesday with once in a blue moon opportunity. That has now progressed to what appears to be confirmed subject to contract. I'll need to get a Ltd company up and running...
    4. Rumblings about the state of the business turned into a "theoretical" conversation with the CEO about restructure on Tuesday has turned this afternoon into my notice period starts 1st September albeit with a promise of a genuine review at the end of October where cancelling it is an option or else PILON+accrued holidays from 1st November.

    Its no wonder I am on happy pills and alcohol :smile:

    Really sorry to hear about your Dad. That excepted, though stressful, it might appear that things are falling nicely in to place? Especially if your current role ends in a payment that you could potentially invest in your new venture?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    Individuals should be able to identify as any ethnicity they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this
    Yes they should. And we can mock them if they warrant mocking for doing so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    No one should ever get less than an A* in their first language.

    In fact, exams in English can be abolished. Think of the savings.....
    One of the changes that was definitely noticeable in the C&G shambles reforms was that they did tighten up noticeably on MFL A-levels.

    Although @Dura_Ace would know more than me, my understanding is they do now include substantial elements of literature, study and cultural knowledge that just wasn't there before. So they're not a gimme for native speakers as they once were.

    Of course, that makes them bloody near impossible for the notoriously monoglot English...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516
    Stocky said:

    I couldn`t disagree with you more.

    Individuals should be able to identify as any gender they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this.

    As for the operation itself, which is gruesome and removes healthy tissue to mimic a sex (not gender) they are not, the surgeon who does such a thing gets no respect from me.
    I find that view extraordinary, but thanks for expressing it so respectfully.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    Stocky said:

    I hope no one`s branding you a "cheat or a liar" Ydoethur.

    As we agreed the other day, it was naive in the extreme for Ofqual to assume that teacher grades would be consistent with previous years. Teachers are , after all, under pressure from a school league table perspective and from a parent perspective.

    Teachers were always, then, going to grade pupils at the, ahem, top end of expectations. Pointing this out is not to in any way place blame. If the teachers at my daughter`s school didn`t do this at least to the mean that teachers did overall across the country then I would be annoyed with the teachers.

    So teachers are not being called cheats or liars - and anyone saying that they are should be ashamed of themselves.
    And yet two posters have - on this very forum. And been thoroughly unpleasant about it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,876
    edited August 2020
    LadyG said:

    Yes I think Boris will resign. I thought it might be early 2021 - post brexit - but he now seems a bit peppier. However he is still a very old new father, he will have achieved greatness just by winning and delivering brexit, if he steers us to recovery in, say, 2023, he could gracefully retire to write his memoirs (for millions) and play with his toddler. TODDLER.

    Sunak takes over and wins a handy majority in 2024 against a boring Starmer with no policies, a Scottish problem, and a racialist party still crippled by Jew-hatred.

    Job done.
    Ignoring the antisemitism-baiting... I expect Boris might resign on health grounds next year if he has still not fully recovered from Covid-19. I doubt the pull of fatherhood will come into play, however (and remember Boris himself spent most of his childhood farmed out to boarding schools).

    We are in an odd position because Boris won by hijacking much of Labour's 2017 platform so we are left with Labour trying to oppose the Conservatives doing what Labour proposed, and Conservatives supporting what they'd spent their political lives opposing. If Brexit goes badly then I expect Conservatives will remember Boris is not one of them, and will end up something like America's Lincoln Project of non-Trump Republicans.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893

    Individuals should be able to identify as any ethnicity they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this
    Why only ethnicity?

    Iain Banks postulated a future in which changing species, or even becoming an AI was just a phase....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    "Young people don't respect British values" - what does this mean?

    Quite! I know what young people are but the next bit needs a definition.

    TBH, this - does the youth of today respect British values? - is imo one of those questions that psychologically steers to an answer of No unless it's a young person being asked.

    A bit like - "Do you trust today's politicians?"

    People will tend to say No because it's expected of them. They fear looking a mug or an eccentric otherwise.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893
    ydoethur said:

    One of the changes that was definitely noticeable in the C&G shambles reforms was that they did tighten up noticeably on MFL A-levels.

    Although @Dura_Ace would know more than me, my understanding is they do now include substantial elements of literature, study and cultural knowledge that just wasn't there before. So they're not a gimme for native speakers as they once were.

    Of course, that makes them bloody near impossible for the notoriously monoglot English...
    Indeed - I showed some past papers to my daughter. Who has now demanded extra Spanish lessons, since her idea that cruising on I-speak-the-language has been dashed.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    edited August 2020

    I find that view extraordinary, but thanks for expressing it so respectfully.
    Liberalism. Individuals should be able to pursue their chosen paths in life without coercion.

    Identify as a man (gender) one day and woman the next, only to reverse this a few years later, is fine by me. Individuals should have maximum freedom right up to the point that they harm others. Then, on only then, their freedom stops.

    Conservatives are offended by the notion of gender differing from sex - but mere offence is not harm. J S Mill was clear on that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    kinabalu said:

    Quite! I know what young people are but the next bit needs a definition.

    TBH, this - does the youth of today respect British values? - is imo one of those questions that psychologically steers to an answer of No unless it's a young person being asked.

    A bit like - "Do you trust today's politicians?"

    People will tend to say No because it's expected of them. They fear looking a mug or an eccentric otherwise.
    'British Values' (again thanks to Gove) has a very specific legal meaning, in schools at least:

    All have a duty to ‘actively promote’ the fundamental British values of democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty, and mutual respect and tolerance of those with different faiths and beliefs. These values were first set out by the government in the ‘Prevent’ strategy in 2011.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guidance-on-promoting-british-values-in-schools-published
  • There have always been transvestites, drag queens, and very feminine gay men, who purchase 'women's' beauty items. That has not really changed, it's just now that a subset appears to want gender to be assigned on the basis of a notion - one that can change daily if desired. I don't see why the state should tie itself in knots trying to fit around this. If you like your willy and want to keep it, more power to you, but you don't get to use the ladies' loos. That should be the *ahem* long and short of it.
    Older women do not use tampons, nor do young girls. The former use lipstick but not the latter. All sit down to pee.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893
    ydoethur said:

    'British Values' (again thanks to Gove) has a very specific legal meaning, in schools at least:

    All have a duty to ‘actively promote’ the fundamental British values of democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty, and mutual respect and tolerance of those with different faiths and beliefs. These values were first set out by the government in the ‘Prevent’ strategy in 2011.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guidance-on-promoting-british-values-in-schools-published
    Note the opposition to 'Prevent' in a certain section of the Labour party....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    Older women do not use tampons, nor do young girls. The former use lipstick but not the latter. All sit down to pee.
    For a moment, I was thoroughly startled by the image of older women using lipstick instead of tampons.
  • ydoethur said:

    'British Values' (again thanks to Gove) has a very specific legal meaning, in schools at least:

    All have a duty to ‘actively promote’ the fundamental British values of democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty, and mutual respect and tolerance of those with different faiths and beliefs. These values were first set out by the government in the ‘Prevent’ strategy in 2011.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guidance-on-promoting-british-values-in-schools-published
    Seeing them written down like that, you can see why Gove might think these are important things for people to learn. Starting with Gove and his colleagues.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    Seeing them written down like that, you can see why Gove might think these are important things for people to learn. Starting with Gove and his colleagues.
    Who was it said 'you value most what you do not have?'
  • isamisam Posts: 41,138
    Doing the rounds on Facebook, complete with incorrect spelling of Sir Keir



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    Scott_xP said:
    What has ABdP Johson become? BCuP Johnson?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516
    Stocky said:

    Liberalism. Individuals should be able to pursue their chosen paths in life without coercion.

    Identify as a man (gender) one day and woman the next, only to reverse this a few years later, is fine by me. Individuals should have maximum freedom right up to the point that they harm others. Then, on only then, their freedom stops.

    Conservatives are offended by the notion of gender differing from sex - but mere offence is not harm. J S Mill was clear on that.
    I also believe in maximum freedom, and the right of individuals to self-identity as any gender they want - but I don't see why the state (and the taxpayer) should be involved. Take all the freedom you want, but not on my dollar.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,694
    ydoethur said:

    What has ABdP Johson become?

    Promoted beyond his abilities (per Gav...)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252
    isam said:

    Doing the rounds on Facebook, complete with incorrect spelling of Sir Keir



    It wasn't me!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516
    ydoethur said:
    :lol:

    Although following his new exercise regime, he's gone down to an A cup.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    edited August 2020
    Has anyone looked at comments re exam grades story on BBC website?

    Literally all of the most liked comments are supporting downgrading teachers estimates.

    Looks like another media misjudgement.

    One wonders whether, out of the blue, this is Starmer's first mis-step - ie he is giving the impression he supports prizes for all - and of course people will read into that a similar attitude to public spending, benefits etc.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-53776938?sortBy=HighestRating&sortOrder=Descending&filter=none#comments
  • On-topic the new Fox question is intended to remove the shy-Trump effect. I'm happy to wait and see how things look in the autumn.
  • Employment question. Business enters consultation, needs to make the role redundant. Conversations, consultation (held on a day the person being consulted is on furlough as directed) and then a "sadly we are making your role redundant. However, I have already been promised that 2 months into my 3 months notice, there will be a trading review where if things have picked up my role may be reinstated.

    Q - can they make a role redundant and trigger notice having already confirmed the role may not be redundant a few months down the line before notice period expires? Feels odd that I will have it confirmed the role is redundant but in 2 months we may make it unredundant. I don't see how that works, albeit from having served less than 2 years therefore no rights at all.

    Yes, I think I have new more interesting consulting venture to start. But even so...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    LadyG said:

    That’s quite a Good Goodwin.

    Only a minority of Labour MPs think schools should teach kids respect for “authority”

    What do the rest suggest schools should do? Instill a respect for anarchy?
    Labour MPs are right on every one of those questions though. As I recall even Tory MPs are to the left of the British public on some questions, eg the death penalty. I've always suspected that Cummings' next referendum will be on the death penalty, the ultimate way to stick it to the Libs while rallying the silent majority behind the Tory banner (while also getting round the objections of elite Tory opinion, just as with Brexit). This will probably be my personal emigration point, BTW).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Individuals should be able to identify as any ethnicity they wish without having to be operated on to achieve this
    Which is the case. I can identify as Chinese if I want. Or whatever. But to identify is not the same as to legally become. The gender issue is imo sufficiently different as to render the comparison to race unhelpful. Changing of gender is driven by gender dysphoria. The feeling of being male in a female body or vice versa. There's no true equivalent for race. Also race is far more fluid that m/f. Also race is not as integral to legal identity as gender is. So, yes, I can identify as Chinese and that's pretty much end of story. Piece of cake. But if I'm a woman trapped in a man's body, I want to do more than just identify as a woman. I want to become a woman. I want to change my birth cert. I probably (although not necessarily) want to undergo hormone treatments and physical operation(s) too. And I want to assume my legal female ID on receipt of a diagnosis of gender dysphoria rather than having to wait until all treatments are completed.

    Do I have this right? This is the debate.

    I think I do.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    MikeL said:

    Has anyone looked at comments re exam grades story on BBC website?

    Literally all of the most liked comments are supporting downgrading teachers estimates.

    Looks like another media misjudgement.

    One wonders whether, out of the blue, this is Starmer's first mis-step - ie he is giving the impression he supports prizes for all - and of course people will read into that a similar attitude to public spending, benefits etc.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-53776938?sortBy=HighestRating&sortOrder=Descending&filter=none#comments

    Unsurprising. The public hate young people, as should be evident from their voting behaviour.k
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    :lol:

    Although following his new exercise regime, he's gone down to an A cup.
    Are we talking about his waistline, or is 'exercise regime' a euphemism for 'bad news for Carrie?'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    Labour MPs are right on every one of those questions though. As I recall even Tory MPs are to the left of the British public on some questions, eg the death penalty. I've always suspected that Cummings' next referendum will be on the death penalty, the ultimate way to stick it to the Libs while rallying the silent majority behind the Tory banner (while also getting round the objections of elite Tory opinion, just as with Brexit). This will probably be my personal emigration point, BTW).
    I don't like Cummings and I think he should quit, but it seems a bit much to suggest he hold a referendum on hanging himself.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Unsurprising. The public hate young people, as should be evident from their voting behaviour.k
    And it's a story about Labour party policy, not about the exam grades per se, so that will affect the balance of the commentators.
This discussion has been closed.