Prof Franks pointed out that, according to the Imperial College model that sparked Britain’s sudden lockdown, Sweden should have seen between 42,000 and 85,000 deaths.
So far, this country of 10.1 million people has seen 5,763 fatalities,
Britain had a sudden lockdown and 50,000 still died. As for the Swedish projection, was that assuming the status quo?
And the fatality rate must be an order of magnitude lower there if they are reaching herd immunity and we are at less than 10%.
Yes. From the original paper and the excel spreadsheet. The higher figure is completely unmitigated, and lower figures are from different methods. With some social distancing but no extra measures to protect the elderly (which is far less than the Swedish measures), you get the 40,000 figure. With enhanced social distancing of the elderly (reduction in social contact by 60%), which is pretty much what Sweden have tried to do, the final death toll was projected at 16,000 for Sweden when the disease had fully run its course and all restrictions could then be lifted.
Which they’re still nowhere near doing. They still have the same restrictions, we’ve lifted ours until we’re very similar to them, they’ve incurred a worse economic hit than any of their neighbours together with a death toll far far worse than any of them, and there’s little sign of any economic recovery in sight for them.
Funny how that all tends not to be mentioned.
Well, the Swedes themselves do say this is a marathon not a sprint. And so far we're not even halfway through the marathon. We just have to wait and see.
If there's no early vaccine, the Swedes will be vindicated.
If there is, they will have endured a more torrid time (in both death toll and economic impact) than Denmark, Norway and Finland for no benefit.
No, you can't say that. What if there is a horrific second wave? Or the virus mutates into something worse? Or the pandemic itself kicks off horrible second order chaos - wars, revolutions, and so on?
This whole thing is so huge, grave and unprecedented - complex beyond imagining - it is a fool's errand to make definite predictions.
It's making me think of replaying Republic: The Revolution again, where you lead a political faction seeking to overthrough a post-Soviet strongman through people power/coup or diplomacy by preference.
As for intelligence-led policing, this is not as precise as you'd imagine either in most cases. Absolute actionable info (e.g. this will happen at this precise time, such and such will be here, such and such will be armed) when it comes to criminal gangs is a minority proportion of what is called intelligence led police operations. Most of it is based upon more general info and knowledge, that a killing of a person may lead to another killing of known individuals. That a certain area has been chosen for a dust up and so on.
As a simple example. We had our childhood family house raided twice back in the day. Both complete errors, nothing found and they pretty much knew it after about 60 seconds thus ensuring the place didn't get totally turned over. Did we live in an area with a reputation? Absolutely. Did something suggest the house might need turning over for weapons? Yes. Was it wrong? Yes.
As for stopping someone "because an officer incorrectly identified it as being registered in Yorkshire", ffs - people in Yorkshire aren't allowed in London?
Yes, I had wondered that. Granted I'm just going off the headline, but it confused me.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Or perhaps because the full footage would reveal that the "racial profiling" claim is pish, and that it shows the police explaining that the stop is due to misquoting the numberplate.
People dont normally get stopped for driving somewhere other than their home town! What is this nonsense?
This is the Met Statement. I need to see the full footage before I can say more. However Dawn Butler's history leads me to be skeptical when she claims things.
------------- At approximately midday on Sunday, 9 August, police stopped a vehicle in Hackney.
Prior to stopping the vehicle, an officer incorrectly entered the registration into a police computer which identified the car as registered to an address in Yorkshire.
Upon stopping the vehicle and speaking with the driver, it quickly became apparent that the registration had been entered incorrectly and was registered to the driver in London.
Once the mistake was realised the officer sought to explain this to the occupants; they were then allowed on their way.
No searches were carried out on any individuals.
One of the occupants has since been contacted by a senior officer and they have discussed the stop, subsequent interaction as well as feedback regarding the stop.
We would welcome the opportunity to discuss this matter further with the occupants if they wish to do so.
The statement is missing the crucial piece of information - Why did they enter the registration into a police computer in the first place? This is no way shows that they were making a sensible stop rather than a racially profiled one.
Surely the police dont drive around town randomly entering number plates into a computer and stopping some? If they do no wonder they have no time to do sensible things like investigate assaults and theft.
I thought ANPR was automatic to be honest - but I'm not an expert on these things.
Although @noneoftheabove has a good point - ANPR wouldn’t have entered it wrongly. It sounds as though it was entered manually.
But - if the driver was white, would racial profiling be involved?
Or did they just think, nice car in dodgy area, is suspicious, let’s check it out?
Have you been to Hackney? It's not all jellied eels and burqas. There are plenty of rich people who live there, work there and own businesses there. And of course it is part of London: the richest city in the country by far, so many other Londoners drive through it.
A flashy car is hardly rare in Hackney.
No, I have never been to Hackney. Is all of it nice? Is some of it run down? Where exactly was this car stopped?
Quite a lot of it is now "nice". Houses in the most expensive Hackney locale, Albion Sq, cost £2.5m
There are very few places in central or inner London where a flashy car is so out of place it would, by itself, be a reason to stop a vehicle. Maybe the odd cul de sac on a very rundown estate. But then the car would be parked, I presume.
So 1.5x the price of the average house in newport beach
Hah.
I fear that the price of houses in places like Albion Sq, Hackney, will be the first to suffer from Ye Great Declyne of Londun Propertie Valuef
Prof Franks pointed out that, according to the Imperial College model that sparked Britain’s sudden lockdown, Sweden should have seen between 42,000 and 85,000 deaths.
So far, this country of 10.1 million people has seen 5,763 fatalities,
Britain had a sudden lockdown and 50,000 still died. As for the Swedish projection, was that assuming the status quo?
And the fatality rate must be an order of magnitude lower there if they are reaching herd immunity and we are at less than 10%.
Yes. From the original paper and the excel spreadsheet. The higher figure is completely unmitigated, and lower figures are from different methods. With some social distancing but no extra measures to protect the elderly (which is far less than the Swedish measures), you get the 40,000 figure. With enhanced social distancing of the elderly (reduction in social contact by 60%), which is pretty much what Sweden have tried to do, the final death toll was projected at 16,000 for Sweden when the disease had fully run its course and all restrictions could then be lifted.
Which they’re still nowhere near doing. They still have the same restrictions, we’ve lifted ours until we’re very similar to them, they’ve incurred a worse economic hit than any of their neighbours together with a death toll far far worse than any of them, and there’s little sign of any economic recovery in sight for them.
Funny how that all tends not to be mentioned.
Well, the Swedes themselves do say this is a marathon not a sprint. And so far we're not even halfway through the marathon. We just have to wait and see.
If there's no early vaccine, the Swedes will be vindicated.
If there is, they will have endured a more torrid time (in both death toll and economic impact) than Denmark, Norway and Finland for no benefit.
Even evolving a treatment with significant benefits, or a rapid reliable test would make their route a poor one - choosing to take a greater early impact than others. I think their route only really works if there’s no hope beyond letting it (slowly) hit everyone.
As for intelligence-led policing, this is not as precise as you'd imagine either in most cases. Absolute actionable info (e.g. this will happen at this precise time, such and such will be here, such and such will be armed) when it comes to criminal gangs is a minority proportion of what is called intelligence led police operations. Most of it is based upon more general info and knowledge, that a killing of a person may lead to another killing of known individuals. That a certain area has been chosen for a dust up and so on.
As a simple example. We had our childhood family house raided twice back in the day. Both complete errors, nothing found and they pretty much knew it after about 60 seconds thus ensuring the place didn't get totally turned over. Did we live in an area with a reputation? Absolutely. Did something suggest the house might need turning over for weapons? Yes. Was it wrong? Yes.
As for stopping someone "because an officer incorrectly identified it as being registered in Yorkshire", ffs - people in Yorkshire aren't allowed in London?
Yes, I had wondered that. Granted I'm just going off the headline, but it confused me.
Read the thread. We discussed this. There are several perfectly legitimate reasons why a London copper might be rightly alert to Yorkshire plates in Hackney.
eg Cars stolen in Yorkshire sold in Hackney
Plates stolen in Yorkshire sold down south
Criminals from Yorkshire doing county line drug runs to the capital
If we persist with this PC menacing of the police we will prevent them doing any policing at all. It is RIDIC
Prof Franks pointed out that, according to the Imperial College model that sparked Britain’s sudden lockdown, Sweden should have seen between 42,000 and 85,000 deaths.
So far, this country of 10.1 million people has seen 5,763 fatalities,
Britain had a sudden lockdown and 50,000 still died. As for the Swedish projection, was that assuming the status quo?
And the fatality rate must be an order of magnitude lower there if they are reaching herd immunity and we are at less than 10%.
Yes. From the original paper and the excel spreadsheet. The higher figure is completely unmitigated, and lower figures are from different methods. With some social distancing but no extra measures to protect the elderly (which is far less than the Swedish measures), you get the 40,000 figure. With enhanced social distancing of the elderly (reduction in social contact by 60%), which is pretty much what Sweden have tried to do, the final death toll was projected at 16,000 for Sweden when the disease had fully run its course and all restrictions could then be lifted.
Which they’re still nowhere near doing. They still have the same restrictions, we’ve lifted ours until we’re very similar to them, they’ve incurred a worse economic hit than any of their neighbours together with a death toll far far worse than any of them, and there’s little sign of any economic recovery in sight for them.
Funny how that all tends not to be mentioned.
Well, the Swedes themselves do say this is a marathon not a sprint. And so far we're not even halfway through the marathon. We just have to wait and see.
If there's no early vaccine, the Swedes will be vindicated.
If there is, they will have endured a more torrid time (in both death toll and economic impact) than Denmark, Norway and Finland for no benefit.
No, you can't say that. What if there is a horrific second wave? Or the virus mutates into something worse? Or the pandemic itself kicks off horrible second order chaos - wars, revolutions, and so on?
This whole thing is so huge, grave and unprecedented - complex beyond imagining - it is a fool's errand to make definite predictions.
Or indeed to make comparisons.
Both chaotic systems (and the basic mathematics of disease transmission are chaotic) and complex adaptive systems (which our responses to the pandemic make the whole COVID experience), are by their nature unpredictable because they are extremely sensitive to input conditions - tiny adjustments in input can result in massive changes in output/results.
So you can't even say, had Sweden made these few changes, this would have been the result, let alone say that Sweden's results are comparable with any other countries', including their neighbors. Chance could easily have made Sweden the least impacted, and Denmark the worst, without changing any of the actual government and social interventions.
This is not to say that those interventions such as mask wearing and social distancing are not beneficial - they are. But we cannot, nor could we ever, make predictions about results, precisely because we are dealing with both chaotic and complex adaptive systems which are, by their nature, unpredictable and hyper-sensitive to initial conditions.
As for intelligence-led policing, this is not as precise as you'd imagine either in most cases. Absolute actionable info (e.g. this will happen at this precise time, such and such will be here, such and such will be armed) when it comes to criminal gangs is a minority proportion of what is called intelligence led police operations. Most of it is based upon more general info and knowledge, that a killing of a person may lead to another killing of known individuals. That a certain area has been chosen for a dust up and so on.
As a simple example. We had our childhood family house raided twice back in the day. Both complete errors, nothing found and they pretty much knew it after about 60 seconds thus ensuring the place didn't get totally turned over. Did we live in an area with a reputation? Absolutely. Did something suggest the house might need turning over for weapons? Yes. Was it wrong? Yes.
As for stopping someone "because an officer incorrectly identified it as being registered in Yorkshire", ffs - people in Yorkshire aren't allowed in London?
Yes, I had wondered that. Granted I'm just going off the headline, but it confused me.
Read the thread. We discussed this. There are several perfectly legitimate reasons why a London copper might be rightly alert to Yorkshire plates in Hackney.
eg Cars stolen in Yorkshire sold in Hackney
Plates stolen in Yorkshire sold down south
Criminals from Yorkshire doing county line drug runs to the capital
If we persist with this PC menacing of the police we will prevent them doing any policing at all. It is RIDIC
Yes, thank you, I wasn't suggesting it was illegitimate, just that headlines (or really tweets, which serve a similar function when linking to something) have power (as it is all many will see) and putting that explanation in the tweet without the deeper explanation makes it look odd.
Prof Franks pointed out that, according to the Imperial College model that sparked Britain’s sudden lockdown, Sweden should have seen between 42,000 and 85,000 deaths.
So far, this country of 10.1 million people has seen 5,763 fatalities,
Britain had a sudden lockdown and 50,000 still died. As for the Swedish projection, was that assuming the status quo?
And the fatality rate must be an order of magnitude lower there if they are reaching herd immunity and we are at less than 10%.
Yes. From the original paper and the excel spreadsheet. The higher figure is completely unmitigated, and lower figures are from different methods. With some social distancing but no extra measures to protect the elderly (which is far less than the Swedish measures), you get the 40,000 figure. With enhanced social distancing of the elderly (reduction in social contact by 60%), which is pretty much what Sweden have tried to do, the final death toll was projected at 16,000 for Sweden when the disease had fully run its course and all restrictions could then be lifted.
Which they’re still nowhere near doing. They still have the same restrictions, we’ve lifted ours until we’re very similar to them, they’ve incurred a worse economic hit than any of their neighbours together with a death toll far far worse than any of them, and there’s little sign of any economic recovery in sight for them.
Funny how that all tends not to be mentioned.
Well, the Swedes themselves do say this is a marathon not a sprint. And so far we're not even halfway through the marathon. We just have to wait and see.
If there's no early vaccine, the Swedes will be vindicated.
If there is, they will have endured a more torrid time (in both death toll and economic impact) than Denmark, Norway and Finland for no benefit.
No, you can't say that. What if there is a horrific second wave? Or the virus mutates into something worse? Or the pandemic itself kicks off horrible second order chaos - wars, revolutions, and so on?
This whole thing is so huge, grave and unprecedented - complex beyond imagining - it is a fool's errand to make definite predictions.
Or indeed to make comparisons.
Both chaotic systems (and the basic mathematics of disease transmission are chaotic) and complex adaptive systems (which our responses to the pandemic make the whole COVID experience), are by their nature unpredictable because they are extremely sensitive to input conditions - tiny adjustments in input can result in massive changes in output/results.
So you can't even say, had Sweden made these few changes, this would have been the result, let alone say that Sweden's results are comparable with any other countries', including their neighbors. Chance could easily have made Sweden the least impacted, and Denmark the worst, without changing any of the actual government and social interventions.
This is not to say that those interventions such as mask wearing and social distancing are not beneficial - they are. But we cannot, nor could we ever, make predictions about results, precisely because we are dealing with both chaotic and complex adaptive systems which are, by their nature, unpredictable and hyper-sensitive to initial conditions.
Yes, exactly.
By the way, much the same can be said of a grand political-economic rupture like Brexit. It is so big and unusual its long term consequences are inherently unpredictable. It depends on so many imponderables which interact with each other in enormously and incalculably complex ways.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
As for intelligence-led policing, this is not as precise as you'd imagine either in most cases. Absolute actionable info (e.g. this will happen at this precise time, such and such will be here, such and such will be armed) when it comes to criminal gangs is a minority proportion of what is called intelligence led police operations. Most of it is based upon more general info and knowledge, that a killing of a person may lead to another killing of known individuals. That a certain area has been chosen for a dust up and so on.
As a simple example. We had our childhood family house raided twice back in the day. Both complete errors, nothing found and they pretty much knew it after about 60 seconds thus ensuring the place didn't get totally turned over. Did we live in an area with a reputation? Absolutely. Did something suggest the house might need turning over for weapons? Yes. Was it wrong? Yes.
I think you're treating a serious problem too casually. If your exp0erience of the police is that they stop and search you on average EVERY WEEK, as happens to two people who I know, it has a counter-productively alienating effect. Quite possibly it will sometimes turn up a offence, just as it would if, say, every business was inspected every week to see if the correct sales figures were being reported to HMRC. It is still not worth it.
As for stopping someone "because an officer incorrectly identified it as being registered in Yorkshire", ffs - people in Yorkshire aren't allowed in London?
Nick, you know people, I lived it, week in week out. Got stopped an absolute welter of times, had the house visited. Got knows how many times my details went on to Crucible and the like. Yet,no convictions, nothing.
Secondly why are these people stopped, do we know why, do you really know why, hasn't anyone asked and got a response? Is it by the same 2 or 3 cops, is it by different cops? What station do they operate form and so on. Give us some details Nick.
Thirdly, alienation is a choice unless the 'system' whatever that is is against you and deliberately picking on you. Then you have every right to be be alienated from the forces of the state. If you are completely without suspicion or known history and some dodgy plod keep seeming to pull you over then that's misconduct. If there is a policy at a higher level that says stop on sight with nothing that's the system.
Berlarusians are lovely people. And the women are, ahem, stunning. They deserve better than this tired, repulsive old autocrat.
Go, White Russia!
The really interesting question is what Putin would do, if the people threatened to put a pro-Western leader in power. He would not be happy.
Worst cast scenario for him if avowedly pro-western forces seem to be gaining influence on his border would appear to be 'secretly' invade to ensure that, with the country in question involved in an intractable low level war, it will never then join NATO or the EU. They've lost too much buffer already.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
This Claire Fox ad is clearly targeted at Remain voting Tories in London and the South, suggesting Starmer is targeting them ahead of Leave voters in the Red Wall Labour lost last year
The blue collar leave voters won't be coming back to Labour while Johnson is PM, even if the country is on its knees economically. They love Johnson!
They wont love him when they have been on UC for a couple of years.
This Claire Fox ad is clearly targeted at Remain voting Tories in London and the South, suggesting Starmer is targeting them ahead of Leave voters in the Red Wall Labour lost last year
You're displaying your ignorance comrade.
Do you think us working class northern leavers go around leaving flowers on Bobby Sands' grave?
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
That request seems like a perfect dead cat. Has some bad news hit he is distracting from?
Also, don't forget to pillory Sir Keir for not wearing a mask outdoors in that video above, even though he is not required to, I remember the debates on here previously about how important that was.
That request seems like a perfect dead cat. Has some bad news hit he is distracting from,
Also, don't forget to pillory Sir Keir for not wearing a mask outdoors in that video above, even though he is not required to, I remember the debates on here previously about how important that was.
Surely Trump should ask to be carved into the half dome at Yosemite.
It's not as bad as all that. July is coming in hot at +8, early August data is coming in at +8 as well. From a smaller base, but the recovery is quite V shaped.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Yes, I agree. Sadly I am pessimistic about Belarus. I reckon the pressure of Putin will mean the autocrat clings on. But we can hope...
For a brief period I considered the possibility that Byronic, formerly of this parish, was actually Robert Kilroy Silk. I still don’t rule it out entirely.
At other times it’s hard not to get a bit solipsist on this site and imagine that every other poster is an artistic creation of a single individual, trotting out stereotypes from every conceivable notch on the political spectrum.
Prof Franks pointed out that, according to the Imperial College model that sparked Britain’s sudden lockdown, Sweden should have seen between 42,000 and 85,000 deaths.
So far, this country of 10.1 million people has seen 5,763 fatalities,
Britain had a sudden lockdown and 50,000 still died. As for the Swedish projection, was that assuming the status quo?
And the fatality rate must be an order of magnitude lower there if they are reaching herd immunity and we are at less than 10%.
Yes. From the original paper and the excel spreadsheet. The higher figure is completely unmitigated, and lower figures are from different methods. With some social distancing but no extra measures to protect the elderly (which is far less than the Swedish measures), you get the 40,000 figure. With enhanced social distancing of the elderly (reduction in social contact by 60%), which is pretty much what Sweden have tried to do, the final death toll was projected at 16,000 for Sweden when the disease had fully run its course and all restrictions could then be lifted.
Which they’re still nowhere near doing. They still have the same restrictions, we’ve lifted ours until we’re very similar to them, they’ve incurred a worse economic hit than any of their neighbours together with a death toll far far worse than any of them, and there’s little sign of any economic recovery in sight for them.
Funny how that all tends not to be mentioned.
Well, the Swedes themselves do say this is a marathon not a sprint. And so far we're not even halfway through the marathon. We just have to wait and see.
If there's no early vaccine, the Swedes will be vindicated.
If there is, they will have endured a more torrid time (in both death toll and economic impact) than Denmark, Norway and Finland for no benefit.
No, you can't say that. What if there is a horrific second wave? Or the virus mutates into something worse? Or the pandemic itself kicks off horrible second order chaos - wars, revolutions, and so on?
This whole thing is so huge, grave and unprecedented - complex beyond imagining - it is a fool's errand to make definite predictions.
In those circumstances, having been previously been infected is unlikely to offer you protection either. So the Swedes aren't going to be in any better position then.
A vaccine, even if it is only moderately effective, has a massive impact on the behavioural changes that we need to make, and on the size of any second wave.
It's making me think of replaying Republic: The Revolution again, where you lead a political faction seeking to overthrough a post-Soviet strongman through people power/coup or diplomacy by preference.
The guy that built that went on to create Deep Mind, which was sold to Google for gazillions.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Yes, I agree. Sadly I am pessimistic about Belarus. I reckon the pressure of Putin will mean the autocrat clings on. But we can hope...
Lukashenko has been a thorn in Putin’s side for a long time so if he intervenes it won’t be to prop him up but to secure some other outcome.
This Claire Fox ad is clearly targeted at Remain voting Tories in London and the South, suggesting Starmer is targeting them ahead of Leave voters in the Red Wall Labour lost last year
The blue collar leave voters won't be coming back to Labour while Johnson is PM, even if the country is on its knees economically. They love Johnson!
Indeed they voted for Corbyn in 2017 despite his IRA links but switched to Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, this ad does not target them however, it targets Remain voters in London and the South who voted Tory in 2017 and 2019 mainly to keep Corbyn out, not out of love for Brexit.
Belarus looks serious. What will Russia do if things get out of control?
Depends on what out of control is.
A genuine pro Western democrat will come under subversion attempts pretty much from the get go and if necessary they will drive over the border on some pretext, stability probably. The West will profess to be surprised and do nothing, probably led by Germany who are just about the most wimpish state the 21st century has seen in standing for the success of democracy. .
The Russian relationship with President Big Hat on the other hand is seriously odd, talk of some kind of unification/federation has persisted. The relationship on both sides talks of brotherly comradeship yet the suspicions on both sides are deep. The Wagner mercenary episode, the movement of offensive forces further west, the Belarus military moving to the border in turn. All recent indicators of that.
What we do not know is whether the Russians have a deep embedded set of operations and levers within the Belarus state system i.e. within the ruling party, Belarus KGB (yes still called by that name) and in the military. They have something have no doubt , but is it enough to manage a situation to their advantage without having to send badged units? No idea.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
As a note he prefers the term cum stained oik just saying
This Claire Fox ad is clearly targeted at Remain voting Tories in London and the South, suggesting Starmer is targeting them ahead of Leave voters in the Red Wall Labour lost last year
The blue collar leave voters won't be coming back to Labour while Johnson is PM, even if the country is on its knees economically. They love Johnson!
Indeed they voted for Corbyn in 2017 despite his IRA links but switched to Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, this ad does not target them however, it targets Remain voters in London and the South who voted Tory in 2017 and 2019 mainly to keep Corbyn out, not out of love for Brexit.
Could be clever by Starmer
Agreed
Nobody cares about Fox other than political obsessives.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
As a note he prefers the term cum stained oik just saying
This Claire Fox ad is clearly targeted at Remain voting Tories in London and the South, suggesting Starmer is targeting them ahead of Leave voters in the Red Wall Labour lost last year
The blue collar leave voters won't be coming back to Labour while Johnson is PM, even if the country is on its knees economically. They love Johnson!
Indeed they voted for Corbyn in 2017 despite his IRA links but switched to Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, this ad does not target them however, it targets Remain voters in London and the South who voted Tory in 2017 and 2019 mainly to keep Corbyn out, not out of love for Brexit.
Could be clever by Starmer
Agreed
Nobody cares about Fox other than political obsessives.
If HYUFD says it is a smart move by Starmer, I am not going to disagree.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Yes, I agree. Sadly I am pessimistic about Belarus. I reckon the pressure of Putin will mean the autocrat clings on. But we can hope...
Lukashenko has been a thorn in Putin’s side for a long time so if he intervenes it won’t be to prop him up but to secure some other outcome.
But at least he's Putin's thorn. Putin will not want a pro-West, pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy leader in power.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Yes, I agree. Sadly I am pessimistic about Belarus. I reckon the pressure of Putin will mean the autocrat clings on. But we can hope...
Lukashenko has been a thorn in Putin’s side for a long time so if he intervenes it won’t be to prop him up but to secure some other outcome.
But at least he's Putin's thorn. Putin will not want a pro-West, pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy leader in power.
Blimey, Lukashenko really is worried, he's only given himself 79% of the vote according to an 'exit poll'
The long-time leader of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, appears set to declare a landslide victory in an election that saw his toughest opposition challenge in years.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 37, entered in place of her jailed husband and went on to lead large opposition rallies.
But a state TV exit poll showed Mr Lukashenko winning 79.7% of the vote.
Blimey, Lukashenko really is worried, he's only given himself 79% of the vote according to an 'exit poll'
The long-time leader of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, appears set to declare a landslide victory in an election that saw his toughest opposition challenge in years.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 37, entered in place of her jailed husband and went on to lead large opposition rallies.
But a state TV exit poll showed Mr Lukashenko winning 79.7% of the vote.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Sounds marvellous. I had never heard of Lavenham until this post and now I've looked it up. I suppose this shows my ignorance of the East.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Neither you nor your friend ever got to interact with any of the locals then.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Sounds marvellous. I had never heard of Lavenham until this post and now I've looked it up. I suppose this shows my ignorance of the East.
Me the same! I had "vaguely" heard of it, as in "oh it's nice" but never looked it up.
It's absolutely ravishing. A perfect little medieval town. It also boasts one of the finest parish churches in Europe.
Blimey, Lukashenko really is worried, he's only given himself 79% of the vote according to an 'exit poll'
The long-time leader of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, appears set to declare a landslide victory in an election that saw his toughest opposition challenge in years.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 37, entered in place of her jailed husband and went on to lead large opposition rallies.
But a state TV exit poll showed Mr Lukashenko winning 79.7% of the vote.
For a brief period I considered the possibility that Byronic, formerly of this parish, was actually Robert Kilroy Silk. I still don’t rule it out entirely.
At other times it’s hard not to get a bit solipsist on this site and imagine that every other poster is an artistic creation of a single individual, trotting out stereotypes from every conceivable notch on the political spectrum.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Neither you nor your friend ever got to interact with any of the locals then.
lol!
We did. And they were very friendly. My favourite was the Chinese Uber driver in Cambridge, who said business was "finally picking up". I fear Cambridge has suffered badly.
The holiday ended with a perfect moment: we walked to the Orchard Tea Rooms on Grantchester Meadows and I watched THE cricket as the kids had cream teas, in the sun. And I drank cold Suffolk beer.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Yes, I agree. Sadly I am pessimistic about Belarus. I reckon the pressure of Putin will mean the autocrat clings on. But we can hope...
Lukashenko has been a thorn in Putin’s side for a long time so if he intervenes it won’t be to prop him up but to secure some other outcome.
But at least he's Putin's thorn. Putin will not want a pro-West, pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy leader in power.
Only to the extent that he has made himself the personal arbiter of the Belarus Russian relationship and that the alternatives are worse. Big Hat has spent a lot of time suppressing pro-integrationist (call them Soviet if you will) forces in Belarus as well as pro democratic forces to help achieve that position. Russia doesn't ,much like that and it doesn't like that Belarus has been finding more of its own nationalist identity but the situation is tolerable if they choose to view it such. The reality though is that as a whole the Belarussians still have a pretty favourable view of their mates to the East, just not necessarily enough to idly stand by as it becomes vassal state. There isn't a big appetite to become part of the expanded Western Europe either.
The bigger issue is that Belarus dependency on Russia is huge and it would take a long go at breaking that and bringing them into the orbit of the democratic part of Europe. Europe up until now isn't interested in being quite that bold, too much hassle.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
You could do similar trips in pretty much every part of the country.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Neither you nor your friend ever got to interact with any of the locals then.
lol!
We did. And they were very friendly. My favourite was the Chinese Uber driver in Cambridge, who said business was "finally picking up". I fear Cambridge has suffered badly.
The holiday ended with a perfect moment: we walked to the Orchard Tea Rooms on Grantchester Meadows and I watched THE cricket as the kids had cream teas, in the sun. And I drank cold Suffolk beer.
Ahhh. Never to be forgotten.
Cambridge is beautiful. Chelsea buns from Fitzbillies?
I had a flat in Peterborough and worked in the Fens and West Norfolk. It was the early 1980s and I suspect Fenfolk are more enlightened these days.
Blimey, Lukashenko really is worried, he's only given himself 79% of the vote according to an 'exit poll'
The long-time leader of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, appears set to declare a landslide victory in an election that saw his toughest opposition challenge in years.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 37, entered in place of her jailed husband and went on to lead large opposition rallies.
But a state TV exit poll showed Mr Lukashenko winning 79.7% of the vote.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
You could do similar trips in pretty much every part of the country.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
Yes, precisely.
And this has happened before. It was the Napoleonic wars - ruling continental Europe out of bounds - that made the upper classes and artistic folk of Britain look homewards and discover the beauties of Britain, from the Lakes to the Mendips to Fingal's Cave and the Fens.
So I have a hunch something similar might happen now. I hope so. Britain is the undiscovered country.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Neither you nor your friend ever got to interact with any of the locals then.
lol!
We did. And they were very friendly. My favourite was the Chinese Uber driver in Cambridge, who said business was "finally picking up". I fear Cambridge has suffered badly.
The holiday ended with a perfect moment: we walked to the Orchard Tea Rooms on Grantchester Meadows and I watched THE cricket as the kids had cream teas, in the sun. And I drank cold Suffolk beer.
Ahhh. Never to be forgotten.
Cambridge is beautiful. Chelsea buns from Fitzbillies?
I had a flat in Peterborough and worked in the Fens and West Norfolk. It was the early 1980s and I suspect Fenfolk are more enlightened these days.
Cambridge is beyond beautiful. It is Venice with a purpose. It is the loveliest small city on earth, and with a mind-boggling richness of culture and history. The kids in my care got bored of me saying "this is famous" and "that is famous" but in each case I was right. Every thing I pointed at was world famous. Right down to the Eagle Pub.
Given they will be working Full Time and they are aiming to keep kids safer I dont think your proposal will fly.
Given Hancock has a worse record with Care Home deaths than Harold Shipman at what point does your stop paying them proposal kick in for crap politicians??
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Neither you nor your friend ever got to interact with any of the locals then.
lol!
We did. And they were very friendly. My favourite was the Chinese Uber driver in Cambridge, who said business was "finally picking up". I fear Cambridge has suffered badly.
The holiday ended with a perfect moment: we walked to the Orchard Tea Rooms on Grantchester Meadows and I watched THE cricket as the kids had cream teas, in the sun. And I drank cold Suffolk beer.
Ahhh. Never to be forgotten.
Cambridge is beautiful. Chelsea buns from Fitzbillies?
I had a flat in Peterborough and worked in the Fens and West Norfolk. It was the early 1980s and I suspect Fenfolk are more enlightened these days.
Cambridge is beyond beautiful. It is Venice with a purpose. It is the loveliest small city on earth, and with a mind-boggling richness of culture and history. The kids in my care got bored of me saying "this is famous" and "that is famous" but in each case I was right. Every thing I pointed at was world famous. Right down to the Eagle Pub.
Ahhhh... the Eagle and the next door Baron of Beef.
In the Baron, Tolkein and CS Lewis would read each other bits from their books as they were writing them.
This Claire Fox ad is clearly targeted at Remain voting Tories in London and the South, suggesting Starmer is targeting them ahead of Leave voters in the Red Wall Labour lost last year
The blue collar leave voters won't be coming back to Labour while Johnson is PM, even if the country is on its knees economically. They love Johnson!
This Claire Fox ad is clearly targeted at Remain voting Tories in London and the South, suggesting Starmer is targeting them ahead of Leave voters in the Red Wall Labour lost last year
The blue collar leave voters won't be coming back to Labour while Johnson is PM, even if the country is on its knees economically. They love Johnson!
Curious that the internet still seems to be up in Minsk
No reports of live fire yet.
Most of the footage is coming from Minsk but there is a possibility that the police and paramilitary police are having problems managing the trouble elsewhere due to an over-emphasis on the capital. That'd be interesting if true.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
You could do similar trips in pretty much every part of the country.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
Yes, precisely.
And this has happened before. It was the Napoleonic wars - ruling continental Europe out of bounds - that made the upper classes and artistic folk of Britain look homewards and discover the beauties of Britain, from the Lakes to the Mendips to Fingal's Cave and the Fens.
So I have a hunch something similar might happen now. I hope so. Britain is the undiscovered country.
If you go to Suffolk again then Clare is another fine medieval wool town, Cavendish is a very pretty village and Haverhill is for the admirers of industrial estates.
The northern parts of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire abound with pretty villages, lovely countryside and stately homes if you know where to look for them.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Neither you nor your friend ever got to interact with any of the locals then.
lol!
We did. And they were very friendly. My favourite was the Chinese Uber driver in Cambridge, who said business was "finally picking up". I fear Cambridge has suffered badly.
The holiday ended with a perfect moment: we walked to the Orchard Tea Rooms on Grantchester Meadows and I watched THE cricket as the kids had cream teas, in the sun. And I drank cold Suffolk beer.
Ahhh. Never to be forgotten.
Cambridge is beautiful. Chelsea buns from Fitzbillies?
I had a flat in Peterborough and worked in the Fens and West Norfolk. It was the early 1980s and I suspect Fenfolk are more enlightened these days.
Cambridge is beyond beautiful. It is Venice with a purpose. It is the loveliest small city on earth, and with a mind-boggling richness of culture and history. The kids in my care got bored of me saying "this is famous" and "that is famous" but in each case I was right. Every thing I pointed at was world famous. Right down to the Eagle Pub.
Ahhhh... the Eagle and the next door Baron of Beef.
In the Baron, Tolkein and CS Lewis would read each other bits from their books as they were writing them.
Curious that the internet still seems to be up in Minsk
No reports of live fire yet.
Most of the footage is coming from Minsk but there is a possibility that the police and paramilitary police are having problems managing the trouble elsewhere due to an over-emphasis on the capital. That'd be interesting if true.
As for intelligence-led policing, this is not as precise as you'd imagine either in most cases. Absolute actionable info (e.g. this will happen at this precise time, such and such will be here, such and such will be armed) when it comes to criminal gangs is a minority proportion of what is called intelligence led police operations. Most of it is based upon more general info and knowledge, that a killing of a person may lead to another killing of known individuals. That a certain area has been chosen for a dust up and so on.
As a simple example. We had our childhood family house raided twice back in the day. Both complete errors, nothing found and they pretty much knew it after about 60 seconds thus ensuring the place didn't get totally turned over. Did we live in an area with a reputation? Absolutely. Did something suggest the house might need turning over for weapons? Yes. Was it wrong? Yes.
As for stopping someone "because an officer incorrectly identified it as being registered in Yorkshire", ffs - people in Yorkshire aren't allowed in London?
Almost certainly the car associated with the (incorrectly entered) number plate was of a different make, model and colour. So should the police just ignore that? Or investigate? Stolen car? Stolen number plates?
Has Ms Butler published the full 8 minutes yet, or just edited highlights?
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
You could do similar trips in pretty much every part of the country.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
Yes, precisely.
And this has happened before. It was the Napoleonic wars - ruling continental Europe out of bounds - that made the upper classes and artistic folk of Britain look homewards and discover the beauties of Britain, from the Lakes to the Mendips to Fingal's Cave and the Fens.
So I have a hunch something similar might happen now. I hope so. Britain is the undiscovered country.
If you go to Suffolk again then Clare is another fine medieval wool town, Cavendish is a very pretty village and Haverhill is for the admirers of industrial estates.
The northern parts of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire abound with pretty villages, lovely countryside and stately homes if you know where to look for them.
Add 3 degrees celsius and about 1000 hours of annual sunshine to the UK and it becomes THE perfect tourist destination. Small, rich, splendid history, amazing buildings, glorious coastline, world capital city, magnificent countryside, multifarious culture, thousands of islands, the English language.
Happily, global warming looks set to give us this, so we can expect 200m visitors a year by 2040.
Curious that the internet still seems to be up in Minsk
No reports of live fire yet.
Most of the footage is coming from Minsk but there is a possibility that the police and paramilitary police are having problems managing the trouble elsewhere due to an over-emphasis on the capital. That'd be interesting if true.
No sign of army uniforms yet.
That would be a recipe for big trouble would it not? You want revolutions to be swift and to cut the head off the snake. Or alternatively to be crushed quickly and comprehensively, depending on you perspective. Parts of the country out of the govt’s control but the capital still is the governments grip is a recipe for foreign actors to involve themselves...
On the subject of road trips, I thought I would start in Kissing in Germany, go onto Petting, Fucking (Austria) and then up to Wedding in Berlin. After that, perhaps go onto Split in Croatia.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
Agree. I'm in Perth, Scotland atm. Nice place I've only been to once before.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
You could do similar trips in pretty much every part of the country.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
Yes, precisely.
And this has happened before. It was the Napoleonic wars - ruling continental Europe out of bounds - that made the upper classes and artistic folk of Britain look homewards and discover the beauties of Britain, from the Lakes to the Mendips to Fingal's Cave and the Fens.
So I have a hunch something similar might happen now. I hope so. Britain is the undiscovered country.
If you go to Suffolk again then Clare is another fine medieval wool town, Cavendish is a very pretty village and Haverhill is for the admirers of industrial estates.
The northern parts of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire abound with pretty villages, lovely countryside and stately homes if you know where to look for them.
Add 3 degrees celsius and about 1000 hours of annual sunshine to the UK and it becomes THE perfect tourist destination. Small, rich, splendid history, amazing buildings, glorious coastline, world capital city, magnificent countryside, multifarious culture, thousands of islands, the English language.
Happily, global warming looks set to give us this, so we can expect 200m visitors a year by 2040.
Half of them in a rubber dinghy from France.
Add Devon to the list of sublime places today. High twenties, none of that high thirties brashness of SE England. The Angel in Dartmouth has just got a Michelin star, 27 in Kingsbridge can't be far behind - and the Seahorse in a Dart riverside tent seems to have taken off....
On the subject of road trips, I thought I would start in Kissing in Germany, go onto Petting, Fucking (Austria) and then up to Wedding in Berlin. After that, perhaps go onto Split in Croatia.
I wondered why Butler took so long to post the footage of the stop - the first clip was reversed, suggesting she was the driver. The second clip showed the "black man" she was with was so pale a casual observer might call him "white".
On the subject of road trips, I thought I would start in Kissing in Germany, go onto Petting, Fucking (Austria) and then up to Wedding in Berlin. After that, perhaps go onto Split in Croatia.
Or you could have just thought Bollock(s) and gone to the Philippines, or Phuket and gone to Thailand.
On the subject of road trips, I thought I would start in Kissing in Germany, go onto Petting, Fucking (Austria) and then up to Wedding in Berlin. After that, perhaps go onto Split in Croatia.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Yes, I agree. Sadly I am pessimistic about Belarus. I reckon the pressure of Putin will mean the autocrat clings on. But we can hope...
Lukashenko has been a thorn in Putin’s side for a long time so if he intervenes it won’t be to prop him up but to secure some other outcome.
But at least he's Putin's thorn. Putin will not want a pro-West, pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy leader in power.
Only to the extent that he has made himself the personal arbiter of the Belarus Russian relationship and that the alternatives are worse. Big Hat has spent a lot of time suppressing pro-integrationist (call them Soviet if you will) forces in Belarus as well as pro democratic forces to help achieve that position. Russia doesn't ,much like that and it doesn't like that Belarus has been finding more of its own nationalist identity but the situation is tolerable if they choose to view it such. The reality though is that as a whole the Belarussians still have a pretty favourable view of their mates to the East, just not necessarily enough to idly stand by as it becomes vassal state. There isn't a big appetite to become part of the expanded Western Europe either.
The bigger issue is that Belarus dependency on Russia is huge and it would take a long go at breaking that and bringing them into the orbit of the democratic part of Europe. Europe up until now isn't interested in being quite that bold, too much hassle.
Fun fact regarding Belarus: it has the world's longest serving Government-in-Exile.
On the subject of road trips, I thought I would start in Kissing in Germany, go onto Petting, Fucking (Austria) and then up to Wedding in Berlin. After that, perhaps go onto Split in Croatia.
Once on a cycling holiday in the Netherlands, I did a short detour so as take in the village of Sexbierum*. Perhaps a nice place to go after Split to recuperate.
* We decided not to go to the nearby village of Monster, as it sounded too dangerous.
On the subject of road trips, I thought I would start in Kissing in Germany, go onto Petting, Fucking (Austria) and then up to Wedding in Berlin. After that, perhaps go onto Split in Croatia.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
You could do similar trips in pretty much every part of the country.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
Yes, precisely.
And this has happened before. It was the Napoleonic wars - ruling continental Europe out of bounds - that made the upper classes and artistic folk of Britain look homewards and discover the beauties of Britain, from the Lakes to the Mendips to Fingal's Cave and the Fens.
So I have a hunch something similar might happen now. I hope so. Britain is the undiscovered country.
If you go to Suffolk again then Clare is another fine medieval wool town, Cavendish is a very pretty village and Haverhill is for the admirers of industrial estates.
The northern parts of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire abound with pretty villages, lovely countryside and stately homes if you know where to look for them.
Add 3 degrees celsius and about 1000 hours of annual sunshine to the UK and it becomes THE perfect tourist destination. Small, rich, splendid history, amazing buildings, glorious coastline, world capital city, magnificent countryside, multifarious culture, thousands of islands, the English language.
Happily, global warming looks set to give us this, so we can expect 200m visitors a year by 2040.
I'm not sure it evens needs that much of a weather change.
The weather can easily be too hot if you like walking or in cities generally or anywhere with a high density of people.
Cold, frosty weather can also be lovely in the countryside for walking to pubs with log fires etc.
Well it would be nice to complete the whole set. But it is easy to get carried away. Not that many people really thought the end was coming, but remember that Erdogan 'coup' attempt a few years back?
Erdogan had most of the Turkish people on his side. He is genuinely popular with conservative Muslim provincial Turks (many of whom have recently moved to Istanbul). I find Erdogan repugnant, but that is the case. The coup was an elite coup and lacked popularity.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Oh certainly very different situations, but just to note that we all love to believe the people will triumph, and hopefully they will, but these autocrats can be stubbornly effective at holding on.
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Yes, I agree. Sadly I am pessimistic about Belarus. I reckon the pressure of Putin will mean the autocrat clings on. But we can hope...
Lukashenko has been a thorn in Putin’s side for a long time so if he intervenes it won’t be to prop him up but to secure some other outcome.
But at least he's Putin's thorn. Putin will not want a pro-West, pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy leader in power.
Only to the extent that he has made himself the personal arbiter of the Belarus Russian relationship and that the alternatives are worse. Big Hat has spent a lot of time suppressing pro-integrationist (call them Soviet if you will) forces in Belarus as well as pro democratic forces to help achieve that position. Russia doesn't ,much like that and it doesn't like that Belarus has been finding more of its own nationalist identity but the situation is tolerable if they choose to view it such. The reality though is that as a whole the Belarussians still have a pretty favourable view of their mates to the East, just not necessarily enough to idly stand by as it becomes vassal state. There isn't a big appetite to become part of the expanded Western Europe either.
The bigger issue is that Belarus dependency on Russia is huge and it would take a long go at breaking that and bringing them into the orbit of the democratic part of Europe. Europe up until now isn't interested in being quite that bold, too much hassle.
Fun fact regarding Belarus: it has the world's longest serving Government-in-Exile.
Slightly off topic. but last week I took my older daughter and her best friend on a spontaneous road trip holiday across Eastern England (as Europe looks dangerously quarantinable). We meant to go for two or three days in the end we did six, as it was such fun and the weather was so grand.
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
You could do similar trips in pretty much every part of the country.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
Yes, precisely.
And this has happened before. It was the Napoleonic wars - ruling continental Europe out of bounds - that made the upper classes and artistic folk of Britain look homewards and discover the beauties of Britain, from the Lakes to the Mendips to Fingal's Cave and the Fens.
So I have a hunch something similar might happen now. I hope so. Britain is the undiscovered country.
If you go to Suffolk again then Clare is another fine medieval wool town, Cavendish is a very pretty village and Haverhill is for the admirers of industrial estates.
The northern parts of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire abound with pretty villages, lovely countryside and stately homes if you know where to look for them.
Comments
I fear that the price of houses in places like Albion Sq, Hackney, will be the first to suffer from Ye Great Declyne of Londun Propertie Valuef
eg Cars stolen in Yorkshire sold in Hackney
Plates stolen in Yorkshire sold down south
Criminals from Yorkshire doing county line drug runs to the capital
If we persist with this PC menacing of the police we will prevent them doing any policing at all. It is RIDIC
Both chaotic systems (and the basic mathematics of disease transmission are chaotic) and complex adaptive systems (which our responses to the pandemic make the whole COVID experience), are by their nature unpredictable because they are extremely sensitive to input conditions - tiny adjustments in input can result in massive changes in output/results.
So you can't even say, had Sweden made these few changes, this would have been the result, let alone say that Sweden's results are comparable with any other countries', including their neighbors. Chance could easily have made Sweden the least impacted, and Denmark the worst, without changing any of the actual government and social interventions.
This is not to say that those interventions such as mask wearing and social distancing are not beneficial - they are. But we cannot, nor could we ever, make predictions about results, precisely because we are dealing with both chaotic and complex adaptive systems which are, by their nature, unpredictable and hyper-sensitive to initial conditions.
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1292548890189799427?s=20
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1292542228141875200?s=20
By the way, much the same can be said of a grand political-economic rupture like Brexit. It is so big and unusual its long term consequences are inherently unpredictable. It depends on so many imponderables which interact with each other in enormously and incalculably complex ways.
And Corona is way bigger than Brexit.
Go, White Russia!
The really interesting question is what Putin would do, if the people threatened to put a pro-Western leader in power. He would not be happy.
Keir goes to Peterborough.
Labour target 27, majority 2580. 2.7% swing required.
Secondly why are these people stopped, do we know why, do you really know why, hasn't anyone asked and got a response? Is it by the same 2 or 3 cops, is it by different cops? What station do they operate form and so on. Give us some details Nick.
Thirdly, alienation is a choice unless the 'system' whatever that is is against you and deliberately picking on you. Then you have every right to be be alienated from the forces of the state. If you are completely without suspicion or known history and some dodgy plod keep seeming to pull you over then that's misconduct. If there is a policy at a higher level that says stop on sight with nothing that's the system.
PS shouty caps, unbecoming.
Belarus is much harder to call. But Putin will be looking on.
Do you think us working class northern leavers go around leaving flowers on Bobby Sands' grave?
https://twitter.com/Ozkok_A/status/1292555908481003522?s=20
Hopefully he's a huge coward and would do a runner if things looked difficult for him.
Also, don't forget to pillory Sir Keir for not wearing a mask outdoors in that video above, even though he is not required to, I remember the debates on here previously about how important that was.
At other times it’s hard not to get a bit solipsist on this site and imagine that every other poster is an artistic creation of a single individual, trotting out stereotypes from every conceivable notch on the political spectrum.
A vaccine, even if it is only moderately effective, has a massive impact on the behavioural changes that we need to make, and on the size of any second wave.
A genuine pro Western democrat will come under subversion attempts pretty much from the get go and if necessary they will drive over the border on some pretext, stability probably. The West will profess to be surprised and do nothing, probably led by Germany who are just about the most wimpish state the 21st century has seen in standing for the success of democracy. .
The Russian relationship with President Big Hat on the other hand is seriously odd, talk of some kind of unification/federation has persisted. The relationship on both sides talks of brotherly comradeship yet the suspicions on both sides are deep. The Wagner mercenary episode, the movement of offensive forces further west, the Belarus military moving to the border in turn. All recent indicators of that.
What we do not know is whether the Russians have a deep embedded set of operations and levers within the Belarus state system i.e. within the ruling party, Belarus KGB (yes still called by that name) and in the military. They have something have no doubt , but is it enough to manage a situation to their advantage without having to send badged units? No idea.
*could*
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1292558754546950145?s=20
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1292560577819107329
The long-time leader of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, appears set to declare a landslide victory in an election that saw his toughest opposition challenge in years.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, 37, entered in place of her jailed husband and went on to lead large opposition rallies.
But a state TV exit poll showed Mr Lukashenko winning 79.7% of the vote.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53707011
We went from Osea Island (Essex coast) to Maldon, through Suffolk to Dedham and Lavenham (OMG!) then on to Bury St Edmunds and we finished in Cambridge.
Without exaggeration it was sublime. East Anglia is, in parts, quite stunning. It is hard to think of any region of the world which combines rural beauty (the Stour!) with rich history, with remarkable architecture, in such a small space. Maybe Tuscany? But the food is less varied in Tuscany. We got great curries AND tapas.
It was a delight and a revelation.
I did wonder if it was just a one-off but the evening I returned I got an email from an old friend who had just coincidentally spent a week in north Norfolk, "swimming with seals!". She is normally a Provence or Tobago kind of girl but she said it was maybe the best holiday she'd ever had. And she used the same word: sublime.
I wonder if one of the upsides of Covid will be the discovery that our own country, Great Britain, for all its many faults and problems, is also incredibly fascinating, storied and beautiful.
It's absolutely ravishing. A perfect little medieval town. It also boasts one of the finest parish churches in Europe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Peter_and_St_Paul's_Church,_Lavenham
We went there. Because of plague, we were the only people there. What a moment.
Mike is Vince Cables Dad
I am Tony Blair
We did. And they were very friendly. My favourite was the Chinese Uber driver in Cambridge, who said business was "finally picking up". I fear Cambridge has suffered badly.
The holiday ended with a perfect moment: we walked to the Orchard Tea Rooms on Grantchester Meadows and I watched THE cricket as the kids had cream teas, in the sun. And I drank cold Suffolk beer.
Ahhh. Never to be forgotten.
The bigger issue is that Belarus dependency on Russia is huge and it would take a long go at breaking that and bringing them into the orbit of the democratic part of Europe. Europe up until now isn't interested in being quite that bold, too much hassle.
But few ever do.
At some point, maybe dating back to the 18th century and the aristo's grand tours, it became fashionable to exalt the culture of Tuscany etc over this country.
At what point to we stop paying teachers?
I had a flat in Peterborough and worked in the Fens and West Norfolk. It was the early 1980s and I suspect Fenfolk are more enlightened these days.
Automatic gunfire? Or just a lot of tear gas canisters?
Curious that the internet still seems to be up in Minsk
And this has happened before. It was the Napoleonic wars - ruling continental Europe out of bounds - that made the upper classes and artistic folk of Britain look homewards and discover the beauties of Britain, from the Lakes to the Mendips to Fingal's Cave and the Fens.
So I have a hunch something similar might happen now. I hope so. Britain is the undiscovered country.
Given Hancock has a worse record with Care Home deaths than Harold Shipman at what point does your stop paying them proposal kick in for crap politicians??
In the Baron, Tolkein and CS Lewis would read each other bits from their books as they were writing them.
Most of the footage is coming from Minsk but there is a possibility that the police and paramilitary police are having problems managing the trouble elsewhere due to an over-emphasis on the capital. That'd be interesting if true.
No sign of army uniforms yet.
The northern parts of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire abound with pretty villages, lovely countryside and stately homes if you know where to look for them.
Has Ms Butler published the full 8 minutes yet, or just edited highlights?
Happily, global warming looks set to give us this, so we can expect 200m visitors a year by 2040.
Both pillar 1 & 2 rates down slightly in week 31
Add Devon to the list of sublime places today. High twenties, none of that high thirties brashness of SE England. The Angel in Dartmouth has just got a Michelin star, 27 in Kingsbridge can't be far behind - and the Seahorse in a Dart riverside tent seems to have taken off....
https://twitter.com/MPFed/status/1292568229005553664?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rada_of_the_Belarusian_Democratic_Republic
* We decided not to go to the nearby village of Monster, as it sounded too dangerous.
https://twitter.com/olgaNYC1211/status/1289940321426530304?s=09
The weather can easily be too hot if you like walking or in cities generally or anywhere with a high density of people.
Cold, frosty weather can also be lovely in the countryside for walking to pubs with log fires etc.
Think all the "Encirclement" memes...
In turn that may well mean they rally round Putin - he is seen as the strong man who pushed back the West...