It's not a "tiny number" crossing the Channel, not any more. It's thousands. And if we continue to allow it to happen, it could become tens of thousands.
Adopting a hardline on people trafficking across the Channel is obviously the right policy, both morally and for the purpose of this website, politically. It mystifies me that there are those here who cannot see that.
This all seems rather decadently trivial, compared with the news that UK GDP is expected to register a 21% drop in the 2nd Quarter, this week - by far the worst in the G7.
Somebody nobody has ever heard of was a headcase thirty years ago. But has since recanted.
Be honest, this is not about the IRA. It is about Brexit.
She has not recanted. Not her support for the IRA. Nor her denial of the Serbian genocide of the Bosnian Muslims. Nor her vile views on child abuse videos and jihadist videos.
If the PM wanted a Brexit supporter in the Lords (why? it’s been done, we keep being told) Carswell or Hannan would do. Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey were ennobled. What does Fox bring other than a disregard for facts, vile opinions and insults to those bereaved and injured by terrorists?
It is utterly shameful by the PM and Tory supporters who defend it share in his shame.
What surprises me is that the Palace didn't veto this one. It looks bad for them too.
Can the Palace veto life peerages?
Do the Standards Committee not get involved in these kind of decisions?
It’s the House of Lords Appointment Commission which vets the candidates but they do not have a veto. Ultimately, it’s the PM who makes the decision. So this is on Johnson and no-one else.
I think @MarqueeMark has a point. No-one knows who she is and it does not matter very much in the grand scheme of things if she is ennobled or not. A more interesting question is why she was proposed. Has Boris not heard of her either? Is Cummings too young to know the IRA used to be a big deal? Is Number 10 trolling Jeremy Corbyn?
The latter would be in character - i.e. infantile - but one hopes not.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
It's not as bad as all that. July is coming in hot at +8, early August data is coming in at +8 as well. From a smaller base, but the recovery is quite V shaped.
It's not a "tiny number" crossing the Channel, not any more. It's thousands. And if we continue to allow it to happen, it could become tens of thousands.
Adopting a hardline on people trafficking across the Channel is obviously the right policy, both morally and for the purpose of this website, politically. It mystifies me that there are those here who cannot see that.
Of course. And those who are now abusing the government for (very belatedly) trying to get a grip will be the same idiots who will scream in outrage when, inevitably and tragically, these boats start sinking and hundreds die.
Getting tough like Australia did is the answer. No one even tries to sail to Oz any more. No lives are lost.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
I was in Worcester last week. A city centre I knew very, well but had not been to for many years. Worcester used to be such a clean, well maintained and vibrant city centre, man what a s*****le it is today.
P.S. Your current analysis doesn't even take account of any second wave. An NHS contact here in Wales has been told to plan for it to get much busier three weeks after the schools open.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
It's not as bad as all that. July is coming in hot at +8, early August data is coming in at +8 as well. From a smaller base, but the recovery is quite V shaped.
Except that we will surely get a 2nd wave. Almost every other country in Europe is now experiencing this, from Belgium to Spain to Germany to Poland.
I see no reason why the UK should be immune, just as we were not immune from the 1st wave. And we have yet to see the economic effects of mass unemployment, which will start soon.
Expect a W shaped recession: the economy will shrink again in the autumn or winter. And the final uptick will be slowwwwwwww
If we get a good vaccine, of course, then everything changes. IF
It's not a "tiny number" crossing the Channel, not any more. It's thousands. And if we continue to allow it to happen, it could become tens of thousands.
Adopting a hardline on people trafficking across the Channel is obviously the right policy, both morally and for the purpose of this website, politically. It mystifies me that there are those here who cannot see that.
Of course. And those who are now abusing the government for (very belatedly) trying to get a grip will be the same idiots who will scream in outrage when, inevitably and tragically, these boats start sinking and hundreds die.
Getting tough like Australia did is the answer. No one even tries to sail to Oz any more. No lives are lost.
Funny, for some folk (apparently) everything pales into weedy irrelevance 'cos of Covid and the related economic apocalypse yet the same old hobby horses are always there to be ridden hard.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
Unfortunately I think you are correct. York is getting hit as you say as a University city,plus it relies heavily on foreign students as well as tourists. Also due to its old buildings many of its pubs and eating places are small, nearly impossible to keep social distance. On a brighter note a house near me has sold on it ,only three days on the market.
At what point do we find out if a vaccine is going to work?
There's a quote in the Times today (IIRC) from an unnamed government expert who reckons there is a "one in three" chance we will ever get a truly effective vaccine.
Mr. Putney, there was some discussion of the Odds Checker situation here a few weeks ago by those who do rather more betting (and with larger stakes) than me. Some behind the scenes reasons, disagreement over fees, etc. Seems a shame.
Morris - Thanks for that. I do recall that Oddschecker was owned/maybe still is by a major bookmaking firm (SkyBet iirc?), perhaps this has something to do with Ladbrokes no longer appearing in their listings.
Sky owned oddschecker since 2007 were sold to Stars Group (Pokerstars) who in turn merged with PPBetfair to become Flutter. So now PP/Betfair/Sky can make it difficult/expensive for Ladbrokes/Coral to appear on oddschecker.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
It's not as bad as all that. July is coming in hot at +8, early August data is coming in at +8 as well. From a smaller base, but the recovery is quite V shaped.
Which puts us on a shape of:
100 - 79 - 85 - 92, which is indeed an encouraging sign. Being just 8% down after the pandemic's worst (hopefully) effects would be well ahead of the most optimistic estimates from beforehand. And I would indeed say that getting back to 2019 GDP by 2023 looks very much on the cards, if not by the end of 2021.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
Unfortunately I think you are correct. York is getting hit as you say as a University city,plus it relies heavily on foreign students as well as tourists. Also due to its old buildings many of its pubs and eating places are small, nearly impossible to keep social distance. On a brighter note a house near me has sold on it ,only three days on the market.
The housing market is perky because of the stamp duty holiday. But it is exactly that. A holiday.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
It's not as bad as all that. July is coming in hot at +8, early August data is coming in at +8 as well. From a smaller base, but the recovery is quite V shaped.
Which puts us on a shape of:
100 - 79 - 85 - 92, which is indeed an encouraging sign. Being just 8% down after the pandemic's worst (hopefully) effects would be well ahead of the most optimistic estimates from beforehand. And I would indeed say that getting back to 2019 GDP by 2023 looks very much on the cards, if not by the end of 2021.
I hope you are right and I am proved to be foolishly fearful.
At what point do we find out if a vaccine is going to work?
I think we already have significant evidence that at least one will. The Oxford/AstraZeneca one looks good and it's mainly now doing the wider trial to determine any negative side-effects in a large and varied population over a longer time. Indications are positive, from what I've seen. We should have a written-up and peer-reviewed detailed report late next month (and yes, it could still be disappointing, but things are looking good so far). Other vaccines are also doing well.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
It's not as bad as all that. July is coming in hot at +8, early August data is coming in at +8 as well. From a smaller base, but the recovery is quite V shaped.
Which puts us on a shape of:
100 - 79 - 85 - 92, which is indeed an encouraging sign. Being just 8% down after the pandemic's worst (hopefully) effects would be well ahead of the most optimistic estimates from beforehand. And I would indeed say that getting back to 2019 GDP by 2023 looks very much on the cards, if not by the end of 2021.
Arithmetic with big percentage changes is prone to error as Stodge pointed out earlier. Best use multiplicative factors or logs.
And "works" in this context means "is probably better than nothing," not "would consign covid to the smallpox dustbin of history, if people bothered to take the stuff."
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
It's not as bad as all that. July is coming in hot at +8, early August data is coming in at +8 as well. From a smaller base, but the recovery is quite V shaped.
Which puts us on a shape of:
100 - 79 - 85 - 92, which is indeed an encouraging sign. Being just 8% down after the pandemic's worst (hopefully) effects would be well ahead of the most optimistic estimates from beforehand. And I would indeed say that getting back to 2019 GDP by 2023 looks very much on the cards, if not by the end of 2021.
I hope you are right and I am proved to be foolishly fearful.
I do think that the shape of the economy may well be rather different, though. Speculation over the long-running effects (now that many large companies have been forced into a massive and short-notice trial of extended working from home) should be worthwhile. The repercussions and knock on negatives (and opportunities) that could result. My suspicion is that 2-3 days per week WFH will become the norm (people will still want to meet up occasionally) and we might see a greater prevalence of "satellite" office systems and associated infrastructure and supporting stuff.
It isn't exactly improving here in Bradford council area.
Meanwhile over the border in Craven, 1 case in a fortnight.
Looks like we'll be in partial lockdown for a while longer. We can still go to the places we don't want to go to but not to those that we do. 50 strangers in a pub is safe, two relatives in their house is unsafe. I think the technical term for that is arse about face.
FWIW my better half thinks that the Government is laying the groundwork for shutting the pubs back down again after the schools come back. More scientists have apparently been piping up to have a moan about them, and they appear to be involved in a disproportionately large number of the high-profile local scares, most recently in Aberdeen and Preston.
After all, how many reports do we hear of clusters of cases surrounding other unshuttered activities such as discretionary retail, restaurants or gyms, especially bearing in mind some people were panicking about the latter because of all that heavy breathing?
If the pubs do go then it looks very much as if all their workers will be thrown on the scrapheap due to the determination of the Chancellor to wind up the furlough scheme, although it's not inconceivable that some kind of support package like that devised for the theatres might be used to keep the businesses themselves on life support until they're able to resume trading.
At what point do we find out if a vaccine is going to work?
There's a quote in the Times today (IIRC) from an unnamed government expert who reckons there is a "one in three" chance we will ever get a truly effective vaccine.
Don't pin your hopes on it.
I see no reason why that government expert would be uninformed. But it doesn’t really matter does it. It just needs to be “good enough”. Good enough to shift the R down a gear, good enough to take another 50% out of the CFR, good enough that everyone swallows hard and gets on with their lives again.
Everything I’ve heard from those in a position to know is that it will be just that. No silver bullet but good enough.
At what point do we find out if a vaccine is going to work?
There's a quote in the Times today (IIRC) from an unnamed government expert who reckons there is a "one in three" chance we will ever get a truly effective vaccine.
Don't pin your hopes on it.
I see no reason why that government expert would be uninformed. But it doesn’t really matter does it. It just needs to be “good enough”. Good enough to shift the R down a gear, good enough to take another 50% out of the CFR, good enough that everyone swallows hard and gets on with their lives again.
Everything I’ve heard from those in a position to know is that it will be just that. No silver bullet but good enough.
And "works" in this context means "is probably better than nothing," not "would consign covid to the smallpox dustbin of history, if people bothered to take the stuff."
I would imagine that enough of the population would take the vaccine for it to have a useful effect. Even a substantial number of refuseniks won't alter that: if the vaccine is worth having (i.e. even if it just substantially reduces the lethality of the illness, rather than being the much longed-for silver bullet) then those who take it will be much less likely to get seriously ill or to perish and the Government will withdraw remaining economic support mechanisms and tell people to get on with their lives.
After that, the people who are protected by the vaccine will get the benefit of it and those who refuse to be lanced will just have to take their chances.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
The University of Washington Covid model - which was originally laughably bad but has grown increasingly accurate and informative - has updated again, with predictions out to December 1. And this time they have factored in a significant easing of social distancing, disuse of masks, and so on.
The USA is expected to get ~300,000 deaths Brazil 190,000 Mexico: 120,000
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
Unfortunately I think you are correct. York is getting hit as you say as a University city,plus it relies heavily on foreign students as well as tourists. Also due to its old buildings many of its pubs and eating places are small, nearly impossible to keep social distance. On a brighter note a house near me has sold on it ,only three days on the market.
The housing market is perky because of the stamp duty holiday. But it is exactly that. A holiday.
Worth repeating, that's a TWENTY ONE PERCENT drop in GDP in one quarter.
The economy of the nation has just shrunk by a fifth. In three months. This is probably the sharpest fall since that comet wiped out the dinosaurs. This is the worst drop in recorded history.
The question isn't what has happened, it's what is happening and what will happen and how percentages will be used to distort the truth.
So, GDP was 100 and it's now 79 - in the third quarter, GDP rebounds by 20% - fantastic, we're back to 99, it's a V-shaped recovery and everything can get back to normal.
No,a rebound of 20% puts us back to 95 so we're still 5% down.
This is the point - we know there was pent-up demand which came out as restrictions eased but what's happening now?
Okay, foolish of me to book a roast lunch with friends on the hottest weekend of the year BUT in east London, the roads were quiet, the restaurant quiet and the pub garden quiet.
Coming back down from Manor Park to East Ham at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon, I'd say in excess of 50% of the shops closed and shuttered.
I know the seaside resorts are doing well but how are things generally?
Having just toured a lot of English towns I'd say things are pretty damn bad, despite a few bright spots (holiday resorts, supermarkets, campsites, etc).
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
Unfortunately I think you are correct. York is getting hit as you say as a University city,plus it relies heavily on foreign students as well as tourists. Also due to its old buildings many of its pubs and eating places are small, nearly impossible to keep social distance. On a brighter note a house near me has sold on it ,only three days on the market.
The housing market is perky because of the stamp duty holiday. But it is exactly that. A holiday.
I can’t claim credit for the term but it’s a K Shape recovery isn’t it? Bifurcation in fortunes. Acceleration of trend towards big tech, the death (or at least maiming) of the daily commuter, niche / boutique retail the only survivor of the high street. Etc...
As for housing, as someone currently buying a house, all I can say is that the semirural boom far precedes the stamp holiday, which really was just pouring petrol on the fire. The market has been manic since 12 Dec.
“Levelling up” was supposed to be the agenda and we’re getting it. Just with a bit more levelling down from the cities going on than anyone would hope.
At what point do we find out if a vaccine is going to work?
There's a quote in the Times today (IIRC) from an unnamed government expert who reckons there is a "one in three" chance we will ever get a truly effective vaccine.
Don't pin your hopes on it.
I see no reason why that government expert would be uninformed. But it doesn’t really matter does it. It just needs to be “good enough”. Good enough to shift the R down a gear, good enough to take another 50% out of the CFR, good enough that everyone swallows hard and gets on with their lives again.
Everything I’ve heard from those in a position to know is that it will be just that. No silver bullet but good enough.
Spot on. A vaccine which lowers viral load, and makes the disease a little less bad to catch makes a massive difference.
One rule for Boris Johnson and one rule for the rest of us.
Johnson has rules?
Oh he has rules, he just makes them up on the spot makes new ones when those no longer are useful for him.
I hold him in complete and utter contempt. And for me he has no redeeming qualities whatsoever.
I'm sure he cares enormously what you think about him.
Me too though. I'm very down on Johnson. More than I used to be. It's sad we have such a person as PM. We ought to have higher standards as a nation. Even some standards would be good.
To be fair Johnson looked after his brother , who was a remainer.
lol - his dad next no doubt.
I find it impossible to respect the guy. There have been 7 PMs in my adult lifetime - 5 Tory 2 Labour - and this is the first time I've felt this way. Not a pleasant feeling either. I draw no energy or inspiration from it. It's depressing.
The older I get the more respect I have for John Major on policy. I think he did very well on the Maastricht Treaty and NI, he did what he thought was the best for the country against some bad enemies in his own party and the Murdoch empire.
I think Major is due a reassessment. He played a difficult hand well. He is also a thoroughly decent man. He and Ken Clarke are perhaps the last Tories I respected. The current lot with their mates' rates Covid contracts for party donors in the spivvier parts of the financial sector, their weird embrace of loathsome ex-Trot genocide deniers and their congenital dishonesty and bullshit are a disgrace to their party as well as a stain on our country.
At what point do we find out if a vaccine is going to work?
I think we already have significant evidence that at least one will. The Oxford/AstraZeneca one looks good and it's mainly now doing the wider trial to determine any negative side-effects in a large and varied population over a longer time. Indications are positive, from what I've seen. We should have a written-up and peer-reviewed detailed report late next month (and yes, it could still be disappointing, but things are looking good so far). Other vaccines are also doing well.
Novavax is also getting really encouraging results. Its vaccine is producing a much stronger response than Oxford, Moderna or Pfizer. The issue is that this might cause the body to over-respond to CV19, causing bigger problems.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Just heard on Sky the police checked the wrong reg number. The reg keeper came back to someone in Yorkshire, that is why they say they stopped the vehicle. It then became apparent once stopped the reg was incorrect.
I misunderstood for a second, and thought you’d said Buttler. My reaction was “I know he’s been making mistakes as a keeper, but for a simple stop to be headline news is really quite concerning”
And "works" in this context means "is probably better than nothing," not "would consign covid to the smallpox dustbin of history, if people bothered to take the stuff."
I would imagine that enough of the population would take the vaccine for it to have a useful effect. Even a substantial number of refuseniks won't alter that: if the vaccine is worth having (i.e. even if it just substantially reduces the lethality of the illness, rather than being the much longed-for silver bullet) then those who take it will be much less likely to get seriously ill or to perish and the Government will withdraw remaining economic support mechanisms and tell people to get on with their lives.
After that, the people who are protected by the vaccine will get the benefit of it and those who refuse to be lanced will just have to take their chances.
My concern was that it will be difficult evidentially to prove how much of an effect a vaccine is having, when there's huge confounders like e.g. different time of year (if it's ready by winter) and riskier behaviour by the vaccinated on grounds of feelings of immunity (and indeed the unvaccinated feeling safer because others are vaccinated). But then the refuseniks will of course be doing us a massive favour by setting up a huge controlled experiment (not blinded but you can't have everything) which would otherwise be ethically impossible.
I do not see how the Scottish examination system survives this. Its credibility is completely wrecked.
If everyone had been downgraded then it might have ridden it out, but it looks as though candidates have been regraded more or less at random, which is both indefensible and outrageous.
It also looks as though the appeals will be no better.
And the punchline -
In England, it’s going to be far, far worse.
Take any odds on Gavin Williamson next to leave Cabinet, because if he makes it to the end of August I will be amazed.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Just heard on Sky the police checked the wrong reg number. The reg keeper came back to someone in Yorkshire, that is why they say they stopped the vehicle. It then became apparent once stopped the reg was incorrect.
Whats the problem with someone from Yorkshire driving in Hackney? Ive never been stopped driving a London registered car in Yorkshire and would consider it bizarre if I was simply for being out of town. Free movement of cars around the country please.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
I do not see how the Scottish examination system survives this. Its credibility is completely wrecked.
If everyone had been downgraded then it might have ridden it out, but it looks as though candidates have been regraded more or less at random, which is both indefensible and outrageous.
It also looks as though the appeals will be no better.
And the punchline -
In England, it’s going to be far, far worse.
Take any odds on Gavin Williamson next to leave Cabinet, because if he makes it to the end of August I will be amazed.
Meanwhile the Nats who had been defending the SNP government must be spitting feathers:
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Or perhaps because the full footage would reveal that the "racial profiling" claim is pish, and that it shows the police explaining that the stop is due to misquoting the numberplate.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
It sounds like a nonsense justification to be completely honest
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Or perhaps because the full footage would reveal that the "racial profiling" claim is pish, and that it shows the police explaining that the stop is due to misquoting the numberplate.
People dont normally get stopped for driving somewhere other than their home town! What is this nonsense?
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
My view is the Police stopped the car because it was probably a nice car, it was from out of town and that was suspicious to them.
I don't think that is suspicious at all, I used to do a lot of driving in the North (my car is registered in the South) and I never got stopped once.
It depends on what else came up.
If it was registered to a car in Yorkshire that was a different make, model or colour, prima facie that would suggest a cloned or false number plate and probably a stolen car.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
No you misunderstood me or I wasn't clear. And you can't respectfully call somebody an idiot so quit with that shite and we'll get on fine.
I think investigating thefts is a good use of Police time, I said investigating where a car comes from is a waste of Police time. They had no evidence it was stolen. They said they stopped the car because it came from Yorkshire and that's all they have provided. You extrapolated more than that - but there's no evidence to say you're right.
The Police say thefts aren't investigated nowadays, they should investigate them but they don't. That was stating reality.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
No you misunderstood me or I wasn't clear. And you can't respectfully call somebody an idiot so quit with that shite and we'll get on fine.
I think investigating thefts is a good use of Police time, I said investigating where a car comes from is a waste of Police time. They had no evidence it was stolen.
The Police say thefts aren't investigated nowadays, they should investigate them but they don't. That was stating reality.
My view is the Police stopped the car because it was probably a nice car, it was from out of town and that was suspicious to them.
I don't think that is suspicious at all, I used to do a lot of driving in the North (my car is registered in the South) and I never got stopped once.
It depends on what else came up.
If it was registered to a car in Yorkshire that was a different make, model or colour, prima facie that would suggest a cloned or false number plate and probably a stolen car.
That would certainly be a reason to stop it.
To me it's odd the Police haven't said that then. As you say that seems quite reasonable to me.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
No you misunderstood me or I wasn't clear. And you can't respectfully call somebody an idiot so quit with that shite and we'll get on fine.
I think investigating thefts is a good use of Police time, I said investigating where a car comes from is a waste of Police time. They had no evidence it was stolen.
The Police say thefts aren't investigated nowadays, they should investigate them but they don't. That was stating reality.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Or perhaps because the full footage would reveal that the "racial profiling" claim is pish, and that it shows the police explaining that the stop is due to misquoting the numberplate.
People dont normally get stopped for driving somewhere other than their home town! What is this nonsense?
If the Police checked the wrong reg , it might have had intell to stop and check.
AIUI they will have to prove employees were ordered to continue working while on furlough.
That may be a high bar, and expensive.
My guess will be that they will prosecute a few high profile and egregious offenders to make it look like they’re doing something and let the rest go regardless of what happened.
I absolutely can't stand people that say "with all due respect" or "no offence" and then immediately say something disrespectful or offensive.
If you want to offend, just do it. Don't be a coward, which you evidently are Sean. No doubt you'll run away again soon and join the forum again under another name.
My view is the Police stopped the car because it was probably a nice car, it was from out of town and that was suspicious to them.
I don't think that is suspicious at all, I used to do a lot of driving in the North (my car is registered in the South) and I never got stopped once.
It depends on what else came up.
If it was registered to a car in Yorkshire that was a different make, model or colour, prima facie that would suggest a cloned or false number plate and probably a stolen car.
That would certainly be a reason to stop it.
To me it's odd the Police haven't said that then. As you say that seems quite reasonable to me.
They may have assumed it was obvious: ‘we thought it referred to a different car from outside the area, therefore suspected a theft.’
I agree they could have been clearer if that is the case.
I absolutely can't stand people that say "with all due respect" or "no offence" and then immediately say something disrespectful or offensive.
If you want to offend, just do it. Don't be a coward, which you evidently are Sean. No doubt you'll run away again soon and join the forum again under another name.
My view is the Police stopped the car because it was probably a nice car, it was from out of town and that was suspicious to them.
I don't think that is suspicious at all, I used to do a lot of driving in the North (my car is registered in the South) and I never got stopped once.
It depends on what else came up.
If it was registered to a car in Yorkshire that was a different make, model or colour, prima facie that would suggest a cloned or false number plate and probably a stolen car.
That would certainly be a reason to stop it.
To me it's odd the Police haven't said that then. As you say that seems quite reasonable to me.
They may have assumed it was obvious: ‘we thought it referred to a different car from outside the area, therefore suspected a theft.’
I agree they could have been clearer if that is the case.
I'm not assuming malice here, I genuinely think it probably was an honest mistake. I just think the Police could have/should have handled it better.
Dawn has the full video so she says, I wonder if she'll provide it so we can see the whole thing.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Or perhaps because the full footage would reveal that the "racial profiling" claim is pish, and that it shows the police explaining that the stop is due to misquoting the numberplate.
People dont normally get stopped for driving somewhere other than their home town! What is this nonsense?
If the Police checked the wrong reg , it might have had intell to stop and check.
Truthfully, I don’t speak as their greatest fan and it’s certainly an embarrassing cock up by the Met, but I don’t think it’s more. Butler is always looking for racism and/or sexism in everything and she seems to be doing it again here. I think it’s rather foolish of her - the boy who cried wolf springs to mind. What will happen now is that those people who should, as @Fysics_Teacher noted above, be wondering why non-white drivers are stopped so often if racial profile isn’t involved, will assume it’s Butler whinging again and move on.
I meant to mark the obvious trolling as spam, I've corrected it now.
I think the effect is the same, it generates an email. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately?) there is no "dislike/disagree" button.
It's not a case of dislike in this case - although I agree with you in general - it's obvious trolling and baiting for a reaction as per Sean's normal usage of this site.
Anyway I've fallen right into it but I thought you deserved an explanation.
I absolutely can't stand people that say "with all due respect" or "no offence" and then immediately say something disrespectful or offensive.
If you want to offend, just do it. Don't be a coward, which you evidently are Sean. No doubt you'll run away again soon and join the forum again under another name.
I will say no more.
With all due respect, why not take a break? You are allowing yourself to be sledged and getting somewhat animated. No offence!
It's not a "tiny number" crossing the Channel, not any more. It's thousands. And if we continue to allow it to happen, it could become tens of thousands.
LOL
You won. Suck it up!
WTF has this got to do with Brexit? I presume that is what you are referring to?
The French have acted like wankers over this issue for years, pre Brexit and post Brexit. They let the migrants cross at various frontiers then wave them through to the Channel ports. Now the migrants have found a new way of crossing. That is all.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
No you misunderstood me or I wasn't clear. And you can't respectfully call somebody an idiot so quit with that shite and we'll get on fine.
I think investigating thefts is a good use of Police time, I said investigating where a car comes from is a waste of Police time. They had no evidence it was stolen.
The Police say thefts aren't investigated nowadays, they should investigate them but they don't. That was stating reality.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Or perhaps because the full footage would reveal that the "racial profiling" claim is pish, and that it shows the police explaining that the stop is due to misquoting the numberplate.
People dont normally get stopped for driving somewhere other than their home town! What is this nonsense?
This is the Met Statement. I need to see the full footage before I can say more. However Dawn Butler's history leads me to be skeptical when she claims things.
------------- At approximately midday on Sunday, 9 August, police stopped a vehicle in Hackney.
Prior to stopping the vehicle, an officer incorrectly entered the registration into a police computer which identified the car as registered to an address in Yorkshire.
Upon stopping the vehicle and speaking with the driver, it quickly became apparent that the registration had been entered incorrectly and was registered to the driver in London.
Once the mistake was realised the officer sought to explain this to the occupants; they were then allowed on their way.
No searches were carried out on any individuals.
One of the occupants has since been contacted by a senior officer and they have discussed the stop, subsequent interaction as well as feedback regarding the stop.
We would welcome the opportunity to discuss this matter further with the occupants if they wish to do so.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
I missed the memo that Hackney is now for local cars only!
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The police entered the reg incorrectly and the result came back as "Yorkshire" - so they stopped the car to see if that was the case. Why did Butler only upload 1m of an 8m video?
Butler doesnt have any powers over the population so I dont really mind what she does or her motives for doing so, although hope she never gets a senior position in a major party.
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
Alternatively, they may have information on criminals coming from Yorkshire into London. Or stolen cars from Yorkshire being sold in London. And so on and so forth.
Why is this not reported on more then? Hardly seems a good use of Police time and don't the Police most of the time say theft is basically pointless to investigate nowadays?
Make your bloody mind up. You just demanded that the police should "investigate serious crimes like thefts", then, when I pointed out that that may be the exact reason they stopped this car - thefts - you said "theft is basically pointless to investigate".
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
No you misunderstood me or I wasn't clear. And you can't respectfully call somebody an idiot so quit with that shite and we'll get on fine.
I think investigating thefts is a good use of Police time, I said investigating where a car comes from is a waste of Police time. They had no evidence it was stolen.
The Police say thefts aren't investigated nowadays, they should investigate them but they don't. That was stating reality.
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
Perhaps for the same reason that in the Bianca Williams case the footage was edited (except for the Times) to cut out the 20-25s of them failing to do as instructed by the police whilst they were pissing about with the camera (plus the failing to stop before that)?
Or perhaps because the full footage would reveal that the "racial profiling" claim is pish, and that it shows the police explaining that the stop is due to misquoting the numberplate.
People dont normally get stopped for driving somewhere other than their home town! What is this nonsense?
This is the Met Statement. I need to see the full footage before I can say more. However Dawn Butler's history leads me to be skeptical when she claims things.
------------- At approximately midday on Sunday, 9 August, police stopped a vehicle in Hackney.
Prior to stopping the vehicle, an officer incorrectly entered the registration into a police computer which identified the car as registered to an address in Yorkshire.
Upon stopping the vehicle and speaking with the driver, it quickly became apparent that the registration had been entered incorrectly and was registered to the driver in London.
Once the mistake was realised the officer sought to explain this to the occupants; they were then allowed on their way.
No searches were carried out on any individuals.
One of the occupants has since been contacted by a senior officer and they have discussed the stop, subsequent interaction as well as feedback regarding the stop.
We would welcome the opportunity to discuss this matter further with the occupants if they wish to do so.
Thanks for posting.
I tend to agree with you on Dawn and her history is not looking good on this matter. She would have more leverage if she hadn't been shown to be a bit of a fool before. Having said that I am sure she has experienced racism far more than I have.
I think in this case it probably was an innocent mistake.
But the statement still doesn't really explain why they stopped the car in the first place? Being from somewhere else in the country isn't reasonable grounds, otherwise I'd be stopped every time I drove to London.
So I hope the Police will add more context and clarify what I suspect is an honest mistake.
Comments
On average about one in five outlets/pubs/restaurants are still shuttered, and look very unlikely to reopen as they were; many of them already have To Let signs.
That neatly matches a 21% drop in GDP = coincidentally.
We aren't going to get a V shaped bounce-back. It will be a long slow crawl. Even predictions that we will return to 2019 GDP by 2023 look, at the moment, a bit optimistic to me. It could take 5-10 years.
And then you have to add in the special crisis facing central London (and other big cities, university towns, places like Bath/Cambridge/Edinburgh).
It is grim. I hope I am overly pessimistic but Jeez.
But I do think we're going to see massive unemployment when furlough ends and this is going to have a bad knock on effect.
Realising that he was not up to the job was a very depressing time for folk like me.
Not that the figures are inherently implausible, except insofar as we all know there will have been massive voter fraud.
Getting tough like Australia did is the answer. No one even tries to sail to Oz any more. No lives are lost.
Tim Bresnan has one ball left.
And there’s one delivery to be bowled and all.
P.S. Your current analysis doesn't even take account of any second wave. An NHS contact here in Wales has been told to plan for it to get much busier three weeks after the schools open.
It's looking bad.
I see no reason why the UK should be immune, just as we were not immune from the 1st wave. And we have yet to see the economic effects of mass unemployment, which will start soon.
Expect a W shaped recession: the economy will shrink again in the autumn or winter. And the final uptick will be slowwwwwwww
If we get a good vaccine, of course, then everything changes. IF
York is getting hit as you say as a University city,plus it relies heavily on foreign students as well as tourists.
Also due to its old buildings many of its pubs and eating places are small, nearly impossible to keep social distance.
On a brighter note a house near me has sold on it ,only three days on the market.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1292508438501773314?s=20
https://twitter.com/JoergForbrig/status/1292508247077814272
Don't pin your hopes on it.
100 - 79 - 85 - 92, which is indeed an encouraging sign.
Being just 8% down after the pandemic's worst (hopefully) effects would be well ahead of the most optimistic estimates from beforehand. And I would indeed say that getting back to 2019 GDP by 2023 looks very much on the cards, if not by the end of 2021.
Other vaccines are also doing well.
p.s. Sorry, you seem to have done so!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/09/young-people-twice-likely-refuse-coronavirus-vaccine-study-shows/
And "works" in this context means "is probably better than nothing," not "would consign covid to the smallpox dustbin of history, if people bothered to take the stuff."
My suspicion is that 2-3 days per week WFH will become the norm (people will still want to meet up occasionally) and we might see a greater prevalence of "satellite" office systems and associated infrastructure and supporting stuff.
After all, how many reports do we hear of clusters of cases surrounding other unshuttered activities such as discretionary retail, restaurants or gyms, especially bearing in mind some people were panicking about the latter because of all that heavy breathing?
If the pubs do go then it looks very much as if all their workers will be thrown on the scrapheap due to the determination of the Chancellor to wind up the furlough scheme, although it's not inconceivable that some kind of support package like that devised for the theatres might be used to keep the businesses themselves on life support until they're able to resume trading.
Everything I’ve heard from those in a position to know is that it will be just that. No silver bullet but good enough.
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1292511445293424642?s=20
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1292511791617122304?s=20
After that, the people who are protected by the vaccine will get the benefit of it and those who refuse to be lanced will just have to take their chances.
Why would Dawn Butler only release a short excerpt of "the whole incident"? Reports are it was 8 minutes.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1292496308910137346?s=20
Some on Twitter claim the driver (Butler was the passenger) was not black (do the Met racially profile passengers?) and the car was registered outside the area (some people register cars in lower crime post codes to reduce premiums).
I hope the Met release any footage they have.
The USA is expected to get ~300,000 deaths
Brazil 190,000
Mexico: 120,000
And in Europe:
UK 65,000
Italy: 50,000
Spain 40,000
Interesting.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
As for housing, as someone currently buying a house, all I can say is that the semirural boom far precedes the stamp holiday, which really was just pouring petrol on the fire. The market has been manic since 12 Dec.
“Levelling up” was supposed to be the agenda and we’re getting it. Just with a bit more levelling down from the cities going on than anyone would hope.
Lukashenko: 79.7%
Tihanovskaya: 6.8%
http://news.met.police.uk/news/statement-re-vehicle-stop-in-hackney-408320
Surely most vehicles moving in any London borough are registered outside the borough all the time?
The reg keeper came back to someone in Yorkshire, that is why they say they stopped the vehicle.
It then became apparent once stopped the reg was incorrect.
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1292515159542505472?s=20
My reaction was “I know he’s been making mistakes as a keeper, but for a simple stop to be headline news is really quite concerning”
https://www.scotsman.com/education/insight-full-story-scotlands-exam-results-shambles-2936974
I do not see how the Scottish examination system survives this. Its credibility is completely wrecked.
If everyone had been downgraded then it might have ridden it out, but it looks as though candidates have been regraded more or less at random, which is both indefensible and outrageous.
It also looks as though the appeals will be no better.
And the punchline -
In England, it’s going to be far, far worse.
Take any odds on Gavin Williamson next to leave Cabinet, because if he makes it to the end of August I will be amazed.
Meanwhile the Nats who had been defending the SNP government must be spitting feathers:
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1292456005293477892?s=20
Dan will have his Labour membership back any day now
If the police can find time to stop cars simply for being out of town, why can they not find time to investigate serious crimes such as thefts and assaults? I do care what the police do, and it is bizarre behaviour to prioritise stopping cars for being from Yorkshire. Perhaps that was the best they could come up with as a justification.
I don't think that is suspicious at all, I used to do a lot of driving in the North (my car is registered in the South) and I never got stopped once.
If it was registered to a car in Yorkshire that was a different make, model or colour, prima facie that would suggest a cloned or false number plate and probably a stolen car.
That would certainly be a reason to stop it.
You're an idiot. With all due respect.
I think investigating thefts is a good use of Police time, I said investigating where a car comes from is a waste of Police time. They had no evidence it was stolen. They said they stopped the car because it came from Yorkshire and that's all they have provided. You extrapolated more than that - but there's no evidence to say you're right.
The Police say thefts aren't investigated nowadays, they should investigate them but they don't. That was stating reality.
I'm sorry if it wasn't clear what I meant.
That may be a high bar, and expensive.
My guess will be that they will prosecute a few high profile and egregious offenders to make it look like they’re doing something and let the rest go regardless of what happened.
I'm sorry you have an inability to understand words.
If you want to offend, just do it. Don't be a coward, which you evidently are Sean. No doubt you'll run away again soon and join the forum again under another name.
I will say no more.
I agree they could have been clearer if that is the case.
Dawn has the full video so she says, I wonder if she'll provide it so we can see the whole thing.
Anyway I've fallen right into it but I thought you deserved an explanation.
-------------
At approximately midday on Sunday, 9 August, police stopped a vehicle in Hackney.
Prior to stopping the vehicle, an officer incorrectly entered the registration into a police computer which identified the car as registered to an address in Yorkshire.
Upon stopping the vehicle and speaking with the driver, it quickly became apparent that the registration had been entered incorrectly and was registered to the driver in London.
Once the mistake was realised the officer sought to explain this to the occupants; they were then allowed on their way.
No searches were carried out on any individuals.
One of the occupants has since been contacted by a senior officer and they have discussed the stop, subsequent interaction as well as feedback regarding the stop.
We would welcome the opportunity to discuss this matter further with the occupants if they wish to do so.
I tend to agree with you on Dawn and her history is not looking good on this matter. She would have more leverage if she hadn't been shown to be a bit of a fool before. Having said that I am sure she has experienced racism far more than I have.
I think in this case it probably was an innocent mistake.
But the statement still doesn't really explain why they stopped the car in the first place? Being from somewhere else in the country isn't reasonable grounds, otherwise I'd be stopped every time I drove to London.
So I hope the Police will add more context and clarify what I suspect is an honest mistake.
Always good to see a new poster!
What do we think about this?