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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay is becoming big problem for the Johnson/Cummings regime

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,787
    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    LadyG said:

    I also love this bit: "Africa during the Moor civilisation was well respected, with many conquests and contributions towards European culture"

    Not only is this illiterate, it also references a period in time when people in north Africa - "the Moor civilisation" (sic) - were actually enslaving white Europeans, including Britons.

    Many conquests? So conquest is a good thing?
    I thought they used to involve slaughter, pillage and rape. Maybe I'm wrong though.
    Moorish Andalusia was one of the great European cultural revivals, and very multicultural. In particular for European Jewry, until they were either expelled or forcibly converted after the Reconquista.
    Not quite the utopia you describe I think foxy

    This is what the BBC says

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/islam/history/spain_1.shtml

    The restrictions I believe were Dhimmi status and payment of the Jizya tax

    Wikipedia says the following

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_under_Muslim_rule

    Note the part about second class citizens
    Oh certainly second class citizens, as indeed they were in Christian Europe too. The Jizya is an interesting one though. Obviously a tax on religious minorities, but also an exemption from things like military service.

    Certainly Spanish Jewry flourished under the Moors in a way not seen again in Europe until the Shtetl of the Polish Commonwealth. The expulsion of Spanish Jews by the Spanish Christians particularly to the Ottoman empire led to communities that still speak a form of Spanish today. Heavily depleted by Nazi extermination in places like Thessaloniki, of course.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    This is the only place I hear the word woke, I’ve no idea what it means, this is the only place I hear discussions about trans rights, whatever they may be. The rest of the world is not interested.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,777

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1278050073872564224?s=20

    This statement was supported by Australia, Austria, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Germany, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Palau, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom

    Fair number of European countries declined to sign this, it seems: Italy, Spain, Portugal and most of Eastern Europe.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,978
    edited June 2020

    Do not go to Hong Kong

    Do not transit Hong Kong

    Do not fly on Cathay Pacific

    Article 38 This Law shall apply to offences under this Law committed against the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region from outside the Region by a person who is not a permanent resident of the Region.

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-07/01/c_139178753.htm

    An article that suggests they are very confident no one will do more than make a mild fuss, given it seems unnecessarily provocative to other nations even for them.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    Do not go to Hong Kong

    Do not transit Hong Kong

    Do not fly on Cathay Pacific

    Article 38 This Law shall apply to offences under this Law committed against the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region from outside the Region by a person who is not a permanent resident of the Region.

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-07/01/c_139178753.htm

    Looks like we'll have to give citizenship to 3 million (is it three million?) to the Hong Kong BNOs.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like Terry Crews is the latest bod to offend the wokerati.

    But I thought he was pretty woke himself?
    People's front of Judea vs Judean people's front.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited June 2020
    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1278050073872564224?s=20

    This statement was supported by Australia, Austria, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Germany, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Palau, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom

    Fair number of European countries declined to sign this, it seems: Italy, Spain, Portugal and most of Eastern Europe.
    From the Algarve to Athens, and also, increasingly, in the former Communist states of Eastern Europe, China's influence is very strong.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    LadyG said:

    I also love this bit: "Africa during the Moor civilisation was well respected, with many conquests and contributions towards European culture"

    Not only is this illiterate, it also references a period in time when people in north Africa - "the Moor civilisation" (sic) - were actually enslaving white Europeans, including Britons.

    Many conquests? So conquest is a good thing?
    I thought they used to involve slaughter, pillage and rape. Maybe I'm wrong though.
    Moorish Andalusia was one of the great European cultural revivals, and very multicultural. In particular for European Jewry, until they were either expelled or forcibly converted after the Reconquista.
    Not quite the utopia you describe I think foxy

    This is what the BBC says

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/islam/history/spain_1.shtml

    The restrictions I believe were Dhimmi status and payment of the Jizya tax

    Wikipedia says the following

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_under_Muslim_rule

    Note the part about second class citizens
    Oh certainly second class citizens, as indeed they were in Christian Europe too. The Jizya is an interesting one though. Obviously a tax on religious minorities, but also an exemption from things like military service.

    Certainly Spanish Jewry flourished under the Moors in a way not seen again in Europe until the Shtetl of the Polish Commonwealth. The expulsion of Spanish Jews by the Spanish Christians particularly to the Ottoman empire led to communities that still speak a form of Spanish today. Heavily depleted by Nazi extermination in places like Thessaloniki, of course.
    The last Jew in Spain is an excellent book covering that period with good insights into metal working and medicine as practiced at the time.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    I don't think that means what they think it means. Of course they are going to be unhappy with Democrats rioting, looting, pulling down statues.

    In fact that Pew study is quite interesting in general.

    https://www.people-press.org/2020/06/30/publics-mood-turns-grim-trump-trails-biden-on-most-personal-traits-major-issues/

    https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278033125889708033

    And the for/against pattern still strong.

    https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278027489621745667

    Interesting regarding who is changing opinion. IMO this likely means the change is mostly occuring in places that already are Democrat.
    https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1278056226136391681
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,458
    'US buys up world stock of key Covid-19 drug'

    Ah the special relationship alive and well. Key partner, ally and soon to be food supplier. America first! America first! America first!

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,368
    This thread is past its sell by date.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    No Donald, it really is you we are after, don't kid yourself.
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    BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    For May's criticism to have any effect, she needs credibility. As the UK's worst ever modern day pm, she has none. She was terrible and remains so.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    NEW THREAD

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,777

    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1278050073872564224?s=20

    This statement was supported by Australia, Austria, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Germany, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Palau, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom

    Fair number of European countries declined to sign this, it seems: Italy, Spain, Portugal and most of Eastern Europe.
    From the Algarve to Athens, and also, increasingly, in the former Communist states of Eastern Europe, China's influence is very strong.
    It seems it's having an effect. Also noteworthy that countries with historically weak democratic traditions are most susceptible to Chinese influence.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,762
    nichomar said:

    This is the only place I hear the word woke, I’ve no idea what it means, this is the only place I hear discussions about trans rights, whatever they may be. The rest of the world is not interested.

    Indeed. PB Tories are now as exercised by 'wokeness' (whatever that is) as they used to be by SJWs, virtue signalling, and the mortal dangers of increasing government borrowing.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889


    Seems Johnson's ridiculous comparison with FDR has gone down badly.

    "A mammoth programme of building and job creation vs a lick of paint for the UK's crumbling hospitals and schools: How Boris's 'new deal' compares to the original created by Roosevelt in the Great Depression of 1930s America"

    That's the Daily Mail!

    "Boris Johnson showed us the architectural drawings for recovery – but not the precise specifications"

    Telegraph

    Johnson functions by being the mood of the country. He wants to be relentlessly positive, upbeat, optimistic, "bounce forward" etc.

    At least 60,000 people have died, many others have been left with long-term medical issues by this terrible virus. It has been, for all the bonhomie, a shock, an economic, social and especially cultural shock.

    Our way of living, our normality, our certainties were not secure or guaranteed. By dint of a virus, they were undermined and destroyed for weeks. There will and indeed are those who will continue to argue we shouldn't have locked down or we should have let the young roam wild and free etc but that's not the point.

    For many families, it has been fundamental - the way of existence has been challenged but people have adapted and as with any forced adaptation, there are positives as well as negatives. For many who have found out working at home is not just possible but actually pleasant, there's no desire to go back to the suit and tie, the early morning commute, the crowded train or bus.

    Instead of a desperate desire to return to the "old normal" it would be nice to hear a Prime Minister talk about the "new normal", how we work, live and interact in the post-Covid 19 world.

    Perhaps Johnson thinks he can re-assure by saying things can go back to the way they were but perhaps that's not what everyone wants to hear or wants to experience. Our lives have changed, life has changed, perhaps we value it just a little more than work.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,304

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I also love this bit: "Africa during the Moor civilisation was well respected, with many conquests and contributions towards European culture"

    Not only is this illiterate, it also references a period in time when people in north Africa - "the Moor civilisation" (sic) - were actually enslaving white Europeans, including Britons.

    Many conquests? So conquest is a good thing?
    Apparently so, as long as it is brown people conquering white people

    I would be really happy to look a fool, if someone could show me that this is a hoax. It is so mind-warping.

    However, under this thread there are several other people saying their schools have sent out similar stuff. So I fear it may be real
    Given that white skin is, as far as the species is concerned, probably an aberration, the consequence of a lack of sunlight and hence an increased need to synthesise Vitamin D, some of this stuff is quite funny.

    My skin is a sort of pink colour, but goes brown very rapidly. So much so that I'm sometimes 'suspected' of being Middle Eastern and to get pulled over for cross-questioning at airports.
    It is your Welsh heritage! They say that the Celts descended from North Africa!

    I wear my North African heritage with pride.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,303
    US virus cases have grown 80% in 14 days.

    That means US could hit 160K new cases a day in about a month's time.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You know, all that infrastructure investment is terribly expensive, and the Government is going to need to raise large sums of money to finance it ... why hello there, Channel 4 - how nice to see you... :smiley:
    Channel 4 is long overdue privatisation.

    Once the Civil Service is reformed and the BBC is privatised that should be next.
    Why smash statues when trashing our cultural bandwidth is so much more profitable?
    Well The BBC is long overdue for a serious kick in the pants. I refuse to listen to its anti anyone who does not fit woke detailing. its getting serious. Fuck the licence fee.. let those who want to listen to that sort of shite pay.
    There are others to listen to including the aforementioned Times Radio.

    If they get rid of BBC4 .. what is left worth watching?
    FWIW there would actually be no problem in it ditching BBC4, if they turned BBC2 back into what was originally intended - i.e. something very closely resembling BBC4. That would allow them to consolidate all the content into one channel and reduce the need to fill scheduled TV with repeats.

    Simply corral all the lifestyle stuff - cookery, gardening, interiors - into the two hours from 6 til 8 during the week, and then from 8pm onwards it's BBC4. All eminently doable if they kill off Newsnight or stick it out of the way on the rolling news channel.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,762

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like Terry Crews is the latest bod to offend the wokerati.

    But I thought he was pretty woke himself?
    So was JK Rowling once. Eventually they learn that you can’t be woke enough.
    I've managed to upset someone the other day.

    I pointed out I'm the privately educated son of a doctor, I really don't have much in common with some poor BAME person living on the poverty line.

    They argued that I must have been the victim of racism/bigotry at some time just like the poor BAME person and it must have held us both back.

    They couldn't comprehend I and society* considers me a success.

    *Well my mother still wants me to be a doctor, but hey ho.
    Undoubtedly you are successful TSE but that doesn't prove that you haven't been subject to racism/bigotry.

    I suspect you have just had to work a bit harder and be a bit better than a white privately educated doctor's son.

    Unconscious bias is a proven phenomenon.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637
    Scott_xP said:
    NYT recently had story comparing 13 possible Biden VP running mates. Yours truly rated them re: experience (good & bad), home state (battleground or not), progressiveism (in balancing Uncle Joe), diversity (Black or Latina a plus) and "other" for factors not included above.

    For example, as to experience, gave US senators & governors points, but not congresswoman or mayors; in case of Susan Rice, I deducted a point because while her experience as NSA and UN Ambassador is significant, think bring up Libya, Syria and foreign policy in general is NOT.

    When I added up the points, my top 3 choices ended up being

    >> Stacey Abrams (GA US Senate candidate 2018) - low on experience (state legislature) but ran good US Senate race; from battleground state; very popular with progressives, Black which will hep with turnout, also an excellent speaker and debater

    >> Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM Governor) - only been Gov a year but good marks so far; from battleground state, popular with progressives, only Latina under consideration (it appears) which helps in number of key state; westerner to balance out easterner Biden (note that New NM is WAY more "western" in cultural sense than Cali)

    >> Tammy Duckworth (IL US Senator) - Iraq War veteran helicopter pilot who lost her legs after being shot down in combat; reasonably popular (with a few caveats) with progressives, only Asian American under consideration (her mother Thai, her father White American); gets under Trumpsky's skin

    Checking around, but looks like I've lost Joe's number, and he's not called me in while (like never). SO maybe some eagle-eyed Biden staffer will see these words of wisdom and convey to Uncle Joe? Though personally am AOK with whomever he chooses - even Ivanka!
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    stodge said:

    Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.

    https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473

    The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.

    The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.

    Yes, I know...

    The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.

    I just cannot accept the Midwest numbers which look ridiculous and would see Biden chewing up a fair chunk of what we would think of safe Red states.

    Yes, I looked at the data. What it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data. So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    stodge said:

    Thought I'd try and track down the crosstabs on the USA Today/Suffolk Poll which showed Biden leading Trump 53-41.

    https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/7_1_2020_xtabs_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=B623A987214F1686CE192F921495863B05A02473

    The gender split explains the lead - among men it's tied at 47 but among women Biden leads 59-35, a colossal 24-point advantage.

    The geographical split shows Biden winning the North East 58-37 and the West 59-37. Trump wins the South 52-41 but incredibly (and completely contrary to the PBS-Marist poll at the weekend), Biden is winning the Midwest 61-32.

    Yes, I know...

    The White vote is split 49-48 in Trump's favour which would be a 12% swing on 2016.

    I just cannot accept the Midwest numbers which look ridiculous and would see Biden chewing up a fair chunk of what we would think of safe Red states.

    Yes, I looked at the data. What it looks like they have done is massively overweight the number of those with a Bachelors and higher degree in the survey and massively underweighted those without a high school degree. So from what I make out, the survey has 24% of respondents with High School or Less vs. 40% in the 2018 census bureau data, and have 42% of respondents with a Bachelor or higher degree vs 32% in the census data. So no wonder it gives the Democrats such a big lead.
    The lessons from this I think is that they key data to look at is in these surveys from now on is what are the splits of educational achievement as these seem to be good indicators of voting intentions
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Scott_xP said:
    NYT recently had story comparing 13 possible Biden VP running mates. Yours truly rated them re: experience (good & bad), home state (battleground or not), progressiveism (in balancing Uncle Joe), diversity (Black or Latina a plus) and "other" for factors not included above.

    For example, as to experience, gave US senators & governors points, but not congresswoman or mayors; in case of Susan Rice, I deducted a point because while her experience as NSA and UN Ambassador is significant, think bring up Libya, Syria and foreign policy in general is NOT.

    When I added up the points, my top 3 choices ended up being

    >> Stacey Abrams (GA US Senate candidate 2018) - low on experience (state legislature) but ran good US Senate race; from battleground state; very popular with progressives, Black which will hep with turnout, also an excellent speaker and debater

    >> Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM Governor) - only been Gov a year but good marks so far; from battleground state, popular with progressives, only Latina under consideration (it appears) which helps in number of key state; westerner to balance out easterner Biden (note that New NM is WAY more "western" in cultural sense than Cali)

    >> Tammy Duckworth (IL US Senator) - Iraq War veteran helicopter pilot who lost her legs after being shot down in combat; reasonably popular (with a few caveats) with progressives, only Asian American under consideration (her mother Thai, her father White American); gets under Trumpsky's skin

    Checking around, but looks like I've lost Joe's number, and he's not called me in while (like never). SO maybe some eagle-eyed Biden staffer will see these words of wisdom and convey to Uncle Joe? Though personally am AOK with whomever he chooses - even Ivanka!
    Lujan Grisham is my recommendation for VP bet. Brings a number of positives to the ticket and Biden's Latino numbers have been mixed.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That narrative has been accepted in Scotland for weeks now, but it is only just beginning to be widely understood in England. Tory backbenchers are not going to be happy bunnies come the autumn.
    What narrative?

    Excess deaths have ended and besides Leicester we're coming out of lockdown and getting on with things. How does that fit your narrative?

    Really stupid cartoon to be running on the day excess deaths figures are reported (from weeks ago) as being negative.
    Difference is that Scotland really is at nearly zero deaths from Covid.

    The English update is good news, but it's not zero Covid deaths; it's the number of Covid deaths is less than the variability in the baseline. England is getting there, but noticeably more slowly than many of our neighbours.
    Scotland shouldn't be compared to England it should be compared to a region of England as that is comparing like-for-like in population areas.

    Many regions of England are at or near zero COVID deaths.
    Scotland has fewer ethnic minorities as well, and there does appear to be a genetic component
    Excuses excuses.
    Indeed. Its not like we are short of our quotient of fat smokers and drinkers with high levels of comorbidity.
    Yes, I’ve now seen a long list of excuses why England is performing worse than Scotland, but there are actually a lot of reasons why Scotland *ought* to be performing worse than England, not least levels of heart/lung disease, low general fitness, poverty, obesity, diabetes and alcohol abuse. That we are not must partly be down to good governance, but also to high compliance among the populace. Folk respect the government and experts of Scotland in a way lacking down south.
    I suspect Scotland got a smaller dose of virus to begin with.

    In life there's always luck involved.

    But a smaller dose of virus in the first wave would make Scotland more vulnerable if there are future waves.

    Just as there are parts of England which are more vulnerable than others to a second wave.
    Is that like being a little bit pregnant
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1278050073872564224?s=20

    This statement was supported by Australia, Austria, Belgium, Belize, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Germany, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Palau, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom

    Fair number of European countries declined to sign this, it seems: Italy, Spain, Portugal and most of Eastern Europe.
    Chinese will be trembling at the thought of Raab telling them they are naughty.
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    MangoMango Posts: 1,013



    You want it all to have been down to Farage because that suits your warped and quite deluded world view. You simply cannot accept that your side were beaten by a better campaign that did not rely upon xenophobia.

    It relied on xenophobia. It was won on xenophobia. It has nowhere to go but xenophobia.

    I know your personal views and preferences differ, but that does not change this essential truth.

    Meanwhile Putin laughs. You're (all) on his side too.
This discussion has been closed.