Reading the Guardian (I know, I know) I found this, in the cricket section 'Johnson said: “The problem with cricket as everybody understands, that the ball is a natural vector of disease, potentially, at any rate and we’ve been round it many times with our scientific friends.'
Well, I didn't understand it, especially as the use of saliva to make the thing swing is banned. Can anyone enlighten me, please.
The ICC has banned the use of saliva to shine the ball, but not the use of sweat. Unfortunately, 10 Pakistani players have just tested positive for Covid while preparing to tour here; not sure if the ball was involved!
I would have thought that some ingenuity could be used to find a way of playing cricket - e.g. umpire to swiftly disinfect the ball after every delivery? It seems a great shame that club/village cricket is banned. My son plays tennis and volleyball every day now - aren't these balls also vectors for transmission?
The ball is leather, whereas tennis- and volleyballs are some sort of man-made material. Is that the problems, I wonder. Our local cricket club has started training sessions again.
Doing the ball with surgical spirit between every over could be quite beneficial for the batsmen - the ball would turn into an over-ripe pomegranate.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
Interesting. I did not know Matthew Goodwin was associated with JRF.
The interesting conclusion is that the Tories now lead Labour with those on low incomes (excluding the unemployed) and had a big swing to them with working class voters in 2019 while there was a swing from the Tories to the LDs amongst those on high incomes
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
Could be a good value hedge if Trump "health problems".
R of any level is exponential. Just a negative exponent for R < 1, and 0 for R = 1
OK smarty-pants.
Mathematically 1.01 is exponential growth, but as the figures we are seeing are estimates with a confidence intervall around them, you can't conclude that R=1.01 really does indicate exponential growth
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
The issue though is many white working class Trump voters are basically 'Trump Democrats' and voted Republican in 2016 for the first time since Reagan. That helped Trump win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania which even voted for Gore and Kerry.
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
"Leaving our current home would save £55 million over five years, "
11 million a year (and these savings never work out as big as planned). That seems like a total drop in the bucket. How much have staffing costs gone up under him?
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
Could be a good value hedge if Trump "health problems".
He's fucking mental. However that's a requirement of most of the GOP front runners so not a barrier to the nomination.
Trump is not going to meekly quit as a "loser". He is going to go down fighting as a martyr. If he loses the election it will be the fault of the following: Liberals. Obama. The lying fake news media. His idiot staffers. China. And to try to avoid losing every dirty trick you can think of will be deployed.
We're already witnessing the facade of democracy being removed with voting stations removed in black areas. With the conspiratorial attacks against postal voting. With armed militia storming state capitol buildings. Expect all of this writ large - GOP election officials rigging the voting process to disenfranchise blacks, latinos, "criminals" etc, groups of armed "patriots" providing "protection" for the constitution by forming militia that literally chase off non-Trump voters.
Yes all this sounds appalling. But we're already seeing it happen in the test phase. And these "patriots" believe that their actions are ordained by God.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
The issue though is many white working class Trump voters are basically 'Trump Democrats' and voted Republican in 2016 for the first time since Reagan. That helped Trump win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania which even voted for Gore and Kerry.
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
The Pence bet is fine, I don't like the Haley bet but he's betting NOMINEE so the presidential race outcome doesn't matter for him.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
I think it is unlikely that Trump will step down before the election. Yes he is a sore loser, but he is stubborn and the term "Quitter" is an insult he throws at others. He woud not let himself be tarred with this brush.
It is possible that the GOP could topple him, but still quite unlikely.
There will be an absolute exodus of companies from expensive central London office blocks. Why stump up all that cost when you can have a significant proportion of your staff WFH at their expense?
R of any level is exponential. Just a negative exponent for R < 1, and 0 for R = 1
OK smarty-pants.
Mathematically 1.01 is exponential growth, but as the figures we are seeing are estimates with a confidence intervall around them, you can't conclude that R=1.01 really does indicate exponential growth
Sorry that's just wrong. IF WE KNOW R is precisely 1.01 then we know growth is +ve exponential. KNOWING R to 2 decimal places is pretty much impossible.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
The issue though is many white working class Trump voters are basically 'Trump Democrats' and voted Republican in 2016 for the first time since Reagan. That helped Trump win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania which even voted for Gore and Kerry.
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
The Pence bet is fine, I don't like the Haley bet but he's betting NOMINEE so the presidential race outcome doesn't matter for him.
But it does reduce the chances of him being pushed, so it does influence the Nominee indirectly.
Reading the Guardian (I know, I know) I found this, in the cricket section 'Johnson said: “The problem with cricket as everybody understands, that the ball is a natural vector of disease, potentially, at any rate and we’ve been round it many times with our scientific friends.'
Well, I didn't understand it, especially as the use of saliva to make the thing swing is banned. Can anyone enlighten me, please.
The ICC has banned the use of saliva to shine the ball, but not the use of sweat. Unfortunately, 10 Pakistani players have just tested positive for Covid while preparing to tour here; not sure if the ball was involved!
I would have thought that some ingenuity could be used to find a way of playing cricket - e.g. umpire to swiftly disinfect the ball after every delivery? It seems a great shame that club/village cricket is banned. My son plays tennis and volleyball every day now - aren't these balls also vectors for transmission?
The ball is leather, whereas tennis- and volleyballs are some sort of man-made material. Is that the problems, I wonder. Our local cricket club has started training sessions again.
Doing the ball with surgical spirit between every over could be quite beneficial for the batsmen - the ball would turn into an over-ripe pomegranate.
In baseball they seem to use a new ball for every pitch. I’m not sure if that would be affordable in cricket though.
More to the point it would change the game completely. The wear on the ball is an essential part of the fabric of cricket.
The three states in America where the virus infection rate is growing the most are Texas, Arizona and Florida. The average daily maximum temprature in these states currently is between 33-43 degrees, so I not sure that this virus is affected by seasonality.
The complication with seasonality is that it aside from how well the virus spreads at a given temperature/humidity, it affects whether you go indoors and whether you open the windows, so plausibly hot places were better in the spring but are worse in the summer, because people hide inside with the air conditioning on and the windows closed.
Yes, and I think the indoor/outdoor variation in transmissibility appears to be far greater than any temperature effect. The latter has barely been demonstrated, whereas a very large majority of the properly documented cases seem to have occurred indoors.
Reading the Guardian (I know, I know) I found this, in the cricket section 'Johnson said: “The problem with cricket as everybody understands, that the ball is a natural vector of disease, potentially, at any rate and we’ve been round it many times with our scientific friends.'
Well, I didn't understand it, especially as the use of saliva to make the thing swing is banned. Can anyone enlighten me, please.
All the players touch the ball.
Have a pile of alcowipes at each stump for the umpire to wipe the ball down with every over.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
The issue though is many white working class Trump voters are basically 'Trump Democrats' and voted Republican in 2016 for the first time since Reagan. That helped Trump win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania which even voted for Gore and Kerry.
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
What percentage of Dem 2012 voter voted GOP in 2016?
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
That's not a bad bet per se, but the best one all along has been to lay Trump.
If there's a risk of a second wave this winter then building more herd immunity now is a good idea isn't it.
Or would you prefer that we all cower in our homes for the next year ?
There's a long way to go to get 60% having had Covid-19 which should give some herd immunity. Also with a two week incubation period and exponential growth of infection it's not easy to control the rate. The NHS could still be overwhelmed if we get this wrong.
R of 1.01 and R of 3 are both exponential but the time scale is very different.
And we don't need to get anywhere near 60% to get some herd immunity.
Now we can either open up society a bit more over the summer and build some more herd immunity or we can cower in our homes for the next year.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
The issue though is many white working class Trump voters are basically 'Trump Democrats' and voted Republican in 2016 for the first time since Reagan. That helped Trump win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania which even voted for Gore and Kerry.
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
The Pence bet is fine, I don't like the Haley bet but he's betting NOMINEE so the presidential race outcome doesn't matter for him.
But it does reduce the chances of him being pushed, so it does influence the Nominee indirectly.
His main opponent is the 'rona for the GOP nomination. Short of that he's got it totally sewn up.
What is "centre-left"? The whole left / right thing depends on where the Overton window is sat and I'd argue that with a broadening of left and right positions recently the "centre" of left is a big place.
The radical centre - taking what works from left and right and applying them as solutions for a population that largely isn't politically ideological. Makes sense to me. And lets the party do what it needs to get back to - taking Tory seats where they are the target and taking Labour seats likewise.
Davey or Moran.Hmm. With 2 other white male party leaders its really hard for Davey to pose as radical. I think he'd stand a better chance with the membership focusing on local politics rather than trying to woo Gen Z and anyone else that doesn't remember the tuition fees balls up.
Joseph R. Biden Jr. has taken a commanding lead over President Trump in the 2020 race, building a wide advantage among women and nonwhite voters and making deep inroads with some traditionally Republican-leaning groups that have shifted away from Mr. Trump following his ineffective response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new national poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Biden is currently ahead of Mr. Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared with 36 percent for Mr. Trump. That is among the most dismal showings of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.
Nearly three-fifths of voters disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including majorities of white voters and men. Self-described moderate voters disapproved of Mr. Trump on the coronavirus by a margin of more than two to one.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
I think it is unlikely that Trump will step down before the election. Yes he is a sore loser, but he is stubborn and the term "Quitter" is an insult he throws at others. He woud not let himself be tarred with this brush.
It is possible that the GOP could topple him, but still quite unlikely.
Not stand down but have to stand down due to ill health. That way he doesn't get the quitter tag and is able to stand down undefeated. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a "heart attack" in the next few months before the campaign starts and Pence takes over.
Don't see why not. It's only paradoxical if you define everything in right/left terms -though I am disappointed that he should feel it necessary to nod to that with his "centre left" description. In any event, governments of all political stripes enact radical policies from time to time.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
The issue though is many white working class Trump voters are basically 'Trump Democrats' and voted Republican in 2016 for the first time since Reagan. That helped Trump win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania which even voted for Gore and Kerry.
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
What percentage of Dem 2012 voter voted GOP in 2016?
9% of Democrats voted for Trump in 2016 compared to only 7% of Democrats who voted for Romney in 2012
Reading the Guardian (I know, I know) I found this, in the cricket section 'Johnson said: “The problem with cricket as everybody understands, that the ball is a natural vector of disease, potentially, at any rate and we’ve been round it many times with our scientific friends.'
Well, I didn't understand it, especially as the use of saliva to make the thing swing is banned. Can anyone enlighten me, please.
The ICC has banned the use of saliva to shine the ball, but not the use of sweat. Unfortunately, 10 Pakistani players have just tested positive for Covid while preparing to tour here; not sure if the ball was involved!
I would have thought that some ingenuity could be used to find a way of playing cricket - e.g. umpire to swiftly disinfect the ball after every delivery? It seems a great shame that club/village cricket is banned. My son plays tennis and volleyball every day now - aren't these balls also vectors for transmission?
The ball is leather, whereas tennis- and volleyballs are some sort of man-made material. Is that the problems, I wonder. Our local cricket club has started training sessions again.
Doing the ball with surgical spirit between every over could be quite beneficial for the batsmen - the ball would turn into an over-ripe pomegranate.
In baseball they seem to use a new ball for every pitch. I’m not sure if that would be affordable in cricket though.
More to the point it would change the game completely. The wear on the ball is an essential part of the fabric of cricket.
Everyone knows that bats are the natural vector for coronavirus, not balls...
You may as well quite randomtwitterbot288473 than someone called irishmonk.
This is complete nonsense, a quick google of reputable news sources will tell you that.
Like the FT?
Japan has given the UK just six weeks to strike a post-Brexit deal, putting Boris Johnson’s government under pressure to agree one of the fastest trade negotiations in history — and Britain’s first in more than 40 years.
Time is so short that both sides will need to “limit their ambitions”, warned Hiroshi Matsuura, Tokyo’s chief negotiator, in comments that dash UK hopes of winning deep trade liberalisation from Japan.
While meeting the timetable would hand Mr Johnson an early trade victory, it also highlights the risk of the UK being bounced into bad deals before the Brexit transition expires at the end of the year. https://www.ft.com/content/a70e644e-f585-4d20-8551-9e3972004f4f
It includes this clear guidance on collecting customer details:
'You should assist this service [NHS Test and Trace] by keeping a temporary record of your customers and visitors for 21 days, in a way that is manageable for your business, and assist NHS Test and Trace with requests for that data if needed.'
Id consider myself a radical centrist. I absolutely see the need for significant and fundamental change, but just couldnt care less whether the solution to a problem is from the left or right as long as it is effective. Sometimes the most effective is from the lefts "toolkit", sometimes its from the rights "toolkit".
Reading the Guardian (I know, I know) I found this, in the cricket section 'Johnson said: “The problem with cricket as everybody understands, that the ball is a natural vector of disease, potentially, at any rate and we’ve been round it many times with our scientific friends.'
Well, I didn't understand it, especially as the use of saliva to make the thing swing is banned. Can anyone enlighten me, please.
The ICC has banned the use of saliva to shine the ball, but not the use of sweat. Unfortunately, 10 Pakistani players have just tested positive for Covid while preparing to tour here; not sure if the ball was involved!
I would have thought that some ingenuity could be used to find a way of playing cricket - e.g. umpire to swiftly disinfect the ball after every delivery? It seems a great shame that club/village cricket is banned. My son plays tennis and volleyball every day now - aren't these balls also vectors for transmission?
The ball is leather, whereas tennis- and volleyballs are some sort of man-made material. Is that the problems, I wonder. Our local cricket club has started training sessions again.
Doing the ball with surgical spirit between every over could be quite beneficial for the batsmen - the ball would turn into an over-ripe pomegranate.
In baseball they seem to use a new ball for every pitch. I’m not sure if that would be affordable in cricket though.
That's not true.
If the pitch is not hit and flies straight into the catcher's mit, then he just throws it straight back to the pitcher. If the ball is foul-tipped (snicked) or ends up in the dirt, then the catcher lobs it to the home plate umpire who gives it a quick check and usually throws it to the pitcher. The do get through a hell of a lot more balls than in cricket though.
If a home run is hit then the spectator who catches the ball is allowed to keep it. That would be a great strategy if allowed in cricket. Don't like how this ball is starting to reverse swing, try and hit it into the crowd.
Anyway the idea of having a new ball every over in cricket is crazy. No spinners would bowl all summer.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Davey or Moran.Hmm. With 2 other white male party leaders its really hard for Davey to pose as radical. I think he'd stand a better chance with the membership focusing on local politics rather than trying to woo Gen Z and anyone else that doesn't remember the tuition fees balls up.
Listening to the stuff he is putting out I think he can disarm the coalition years issue: 1. "I took on the Tories and won". According to the Tories everything that happened in the coalition they did. So simply reverse that. Everything good in the coalition was the LibDems. Everything bad was the Tories - and look at how bad they have been without us there to restrain them". Doesn't have to be true, just has to be spun hard enough to resonate with the times. And the Tories post 2015 have been truly awful... 2. The tuition fees fiasco was a major mistake by Nick Clegg. He didn't tell us that was his plan until it was too late. For all the hurt that has caused I am sorry, the party has moved on from Nick Clegg's time"
As I’ve posted before, it’s pretty much impossible for Trump to postpone the election absent a constitutional amendment. Both houses would have to agree to a change of date, and the House simply won’t. An amendment is even more impossible: it would require 2/3 majorities in both house and ratification by 3/4 of the states.
Trump’s best chance for shenanigans would be to use the Coronavirus crisis to urge GOP-controlled states to cancel the Presidential election altogether in their states and appoint their Electoral College members directly. This would in fact be perfectly constitutional: it last occurred in 1876 when Colorado was admitted to the Union too late in the year to hold an election.
To be honest though, I don’t think that’s at all likely and even if Trump could get the Republican legislatures in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to play ball, their Democratic governors would veto it from orbit.
Best chance for Trump is if the Electoral College fails to elect a President (at least 273 EC votes are required), then the House holds a “contingent election”. This does not favour the Democrats as the election is conducted by state with each state delegation having one vote. Even with the expected D gains in November the Republicans would have a majority of delegations. I don’t think there’s much likelihood of this happening though.
And as to voter suppression, well it’s what Republicans do, but I’m pretty sanguine about it, as they’ve pretty much done as much ad they can anyway. Any further measures are likely to hurt their own electorate as much as the Democrats’. Trump’s recent railing against postal voting is a case in point: it’s as likely to suppress the turnout of older potential Republican voters as younger potential Democratic ones.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
You can't have UBI and any sort of freedom of movement / entitlement to benefits for a significant period of time.
I'm just glad we have so much spare cash hanging around looking for a good home to fund it. I mean, its not as if our debt/GDP ratio has just passed 100% for the first time since 1963, is it?
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
The issue though is many white working class Trump voters are basically 'Trump Democrats' and voted Republican in 2016 for the first time since Reagan. That helped Trump win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania which even voted for Gore and Kerry.
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
What percentage of Dem 2012 voter voted GOP in 2016?
9% of Democrats voted for Trump in 2016 compared to only 7% of Democrats who voted for Romney in 2012
That 7% of Democrats for Romney is a surprise. I'm guessing here that "Democrat" means a registered democrat which is free and allows that voter to vote in Democrat Primaries. I have always been sceptical about the status if "registered voter" and have thought there must be a proportion of "spoilers" in the primary elections, ie they register for the other party to hinder them in the primaries and then vote for their favourite party in the RepvDem elections.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It includes this clear guidance on collecting customer details:
'You should assist this service [NHS Test and Trace] by keeping a temporary record of your customers and visitors for 21 days, in a way that is manageable for your business, and assist NHS Test and Trace with requests for that data if needed.'
Sounds a lot less robust than the Guernsey "Customer Data" tracking that was in place earlier - that had to be available to the Track & Trace team 24/7. With stiff fines for non-compliance - including being shut down.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
I am an anti-Conservative politician, and that’s how I would lead our party. We are a million miles from the Tories. While we promote international co-operation and human rights abroad, they pull up the drawbridge. While we want world-leading plans for a Green Revolution, their climate plans are timid at best. While we would root out poverty and inequality, the Conservatives have no commitment to social justice and have failed to take any action in response to the Black Lives Matter protests.
At least that's kind of better - but I think it's the wrong direction to be going in.
I am an anti-Conservative politician, and that’s how I would lead our party. We are a million miles from the Tories. While we promote international co-operation and human rights abroad, they pull up the drawbridge. While we want world-leading plans for a Green Revolution, their climate plans are timid at best. While we would root out poverty and inequality, the Conservatives have no commitment to social justice and have failed to take any action in response to the Black Lives Matter protests.
At least that's kind of better - but I think it's the wrong direction to be going in.
By implication he's saying he'd support Labour.
And with that go Lib Dem hopes of turning the South West yellow...
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
It is a perfectly reasonable positioning. It would probably work well for Starmer as it did for Cameron. Gives him the excuse to ignore the remnants of the Corbynista wing. I think the electorate would like it too. I think many people liked the Coalition government. Interestingly it was a damn sight more effective and competent than the bunch of lightweight muppets we have currently got.
Yang's plan was for $1000 a month, so that'd be around £800/mth here. 40% tax rate at 20k going north to 60% at 50k to pay for it ? No I've not done the sums.
You may as well quite randomtwitterbot288473 than someone called irishmonk.
This is complete nonsense, a quick google of reputable news sources will tell you that.
Like the FT?
Japan has given the UK just six weeks to strike a post-Brexit deal, putting Boris Johnson’s government under pressure to agree one of the fastest trade negotiations in history — and Britain’s first in more than 40 years.
Time is so short that both sides will need to “limit their ambitions”, warned Hiroshi Matsuura, Tokyo’s chief negotiator, in comments that dash UK hopes of winning deep trade liberalisation from Japan.
While meeting the timetable would hand Mr Johnson an early trade victory, it also highlights the risk of the UK being bounced into bad deals before the Brexit transition expires at the end of the year. https://www.ft.com/content/a70e644e-f585-4d20-8551-9e3972004f4f
One thing is missing from the FT's version, which is the comparison with the EU-Japan trade deal.
I don't recall what concessions the Japanese made to the EU, and whether and to what extent they apply to the sort of goods the UK deals in.
Good move in principle, but will be an interesting one to watch.
The new place is 60% smaller, and the old one was already overcrowded.
And it is half a mile from the nearest tube station.
Suspect that finding a way to work with 100 fewer tube drivers may have been a better idea, which would have saved similar money.
Perhaps they will do both.
1000 fewer, unless they're on £550k each Still, you could probably lose them all (how many are there?) and go for a DLR-like system, maybe with a lower paid conductor/safety office on each train? Massive strikes of course while that was implemented, which would be political suicide.
It includes this clear guidance on collecting customer details:
'You should assist this service [NHS Test and Trace] by keeping a temporary record of your customers and visitors for 21 days, in a way that is manageable for your business, and assist NHS Test and Trace with requests for that data if needed.'
Sounds a lot less robust than the Guernsey "Customer Data" tracking that was in place earlier - that had to be available to the Track & Trace team 24/7. With stiff fines for non-compliance - including being shut down.
The document does go on to say:
'We [the government] will work with industry and relevant bodies to design this system in line with data protection legislation, and set out details shortly.'
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
For the sake of argument, how would we rate a Pence vs Biden race compared to Trump vs Biden? Given the generic polling I find it easier to see a path to victory for Trump; If he didn't want to run I non-ironically feel like he'd be better substituting Ivanka, she keeps basically the entire Trumpist vote and can also probably swing some moderates looking for a fresh face.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
It is a perfectly reasonable positioning. It would probably work well for Starmer as it did for Cameron. Gives him the excuse to ignore the remnants of the Corbynista wing. I think the electorate would like it too. I think many people liked the Coalition government. Interestingly it was a damn sight more effective and competent than the bunch of lightweight muppets we have currently got.
It's reasonable positioning - but how does this approach result in seat gains?
The seats the Lib Dems need to win are Tory seats, they're competing with the wrong party again. I'm not against a clear stance for the Lib Dems so we know what they stand for but it seems to me that trying to do what Ashdown did with Blair is faulty as their seat makeup isn't the same as it was then.
There's an argument that the Lib Dems will do better as people aren't afraid of Starmer as a PM and that's compelling - but the sensible thing then would be to pitch yourself right of Labour. People will want to stop Labour's excesses, not make them more left wing.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
The whole point of UBI is that you don't do this. You have a single payment. Otherwise, you eliminate a lot of the gains / savings on admin of a single un-means tested benefits system.
UBI + loads of current benefits is worst of both worlds.
Id consider myself a radical centrist. I absolutely see the need for significant and fundamental change, but just couldnt care less whether the solution to a problem is from the left or right as long as it is effective. Sometimes the most effective is from the lefts "toolkit", sometimes its from the rights "toolkit".
A good post. People often make the mistake of thinking centrists are somehow wet lettuces! It is time centrists started being more aggressive and attacking the extremes that are fundamentally damaging to the economy and the country. I am a right of centre centrist, but I would like to see a left of centre Labour party as a credible alternative so we can get rid of Johnson and his gang of lightweight incompetents.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
Greetings StJ. Trust you did not suffer too greatly from Villa Withdrawal Symptoms.
Personally I don't think T will quit but I've too much respect for the likes of OGH, PfP and your good self to dismiss the idea entirely. I've hedged a bit by just laying Trump. It wouldn't be as profitable as what you have done but it would pay, and avoid the frustration of The Orange One being replaced by someone really wacky - Ted Cuz for example.
You can't have UBI and any sort of freedom of movement / entitlement to benefits for a significant period of time.
I'm just glad we have so much spare cash hanging around looking for a good home to fund it. I mean, its not as if our debt/GDP ratio has just passed 100% for the first time since 1963, is it?
Here's the problem. The economy has contracted significantly. We're now seeing the shakeout of the companies laid to waste by the lockdown and the rate of failures is going to accelerate rapidly as furlough winds down and economic activity doesn't wind up.
The economy is an act of confidence. People believe they have money they can spend so they buy goods/services. Without enough money to pay for said goods/services they either get into debt or do without. If enough people do without the providers of those goods / services go under and yet more people don't have the cash.
Think of UBI as a guaranteed way to keep money circulating through the economy. Money circulating drives consumption which creates jobs...
They are having to make very difficult trade offs.
They are but we would be much better placed if Johnson hadn't been asleep at the wheel and had taken the pandemic threat seriously sooner. That two weeks off for the second half of Feb still looks critical to me. By the time he woke up to the threat we had lost the initiative and have been fire-fighting ever since.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
The whole point of UBI is that you don't do this. You have a single payment. Otherwise, you eliminate a lot of the gains / savings on admin of a single un-means tested benefits system.
UBI + loads of current benefits is worst of both worlds.
There are lots of different UBI proposals with different aims.
Some are effectively delivering QE cutting out the banking middleman with low level grants to everyone directly
Others are to replace benefits and cut admin costs.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
They can't "get back to work" you wazzock if their company has gone pop. We're facing into 5-6m unemployed and you're telling them to swivel.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
I think it is unlikely that Trump will step down before the election. Yes he is a sore loser, but he is stubborn and the term "Quitter" is an insult he throws at others. He woud not let himself be tarred with this brush.
It is possible that the GOP could topple him, but still quite unlikely.
Not stand down but have to stand down due to ill health. That way he doesn't get the quitter tag and is able to stand down undefeated. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a "heart attack" in the next few months before the campaign starts and Pence takes over.
Dodging electoral disaster as he did that in Vietnam!
Yang's plan was for $1000 a month, so that'd be around £800/mth here. 40% tax rate at 20k going north to 60% at 50k to pay for it ? No I've not done the sums.
Increasing that particular tax rate doesnt bring in much income. Many would argue it cuts tax receipts. So, no.
They are having to make very difficult trade offs.
They are but we would be much better placed if Johnson hadn't been asleep at the wheel and had taken the pandemic threat seriously sooner. That two weeks off for the second half of Feb still looks critical to me. By the time he woke up to the threat we had lost the initiative and have been fire-fighting ever since.
Yang's plan was for $1000 a month, so that'd be around £800/mth here. 40% tax rate at 20k going north to 60% at 50k to pay for it ? No I've not done the sums.
Increasing that particular tax rate doesnt bring in much income. Many would argue it cuts tax receipts. So, no.
Don't forget everyone's income is inflated with a UBI. If it's £800/mth with a £10 per hour wage job and working 1500 hours that's £24,600 gross.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
The whole point of UBI is that you don't do this. You have a single payment. Otherwise, you eliminate a lot of the gains / savings on admin of a single un-means tested benefits system.
UBI + loads of current benefits is worst of both worlds.
There are lots of different UBI proposals with different aims.
Some are effectively delivering QE cutting out the banking middleman with low level grants to everyone directly
Others are to replace benefits and cut admin costs.
I presumed we weren't talking about the US temporary QE type approach of a few months of payments (which on a recent Freakonomics episode was highly criticized by economists, they stated the UK furlough scheme was much better use of money).
I see no point in giving everybody a small amount every month long term plus the benefits system. You can basically do this via current system plus altering tax credits and tax boundaries.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
They can't "get back to work" you wazzock if their company has gone pop. We're facing into 5-6m unemployed and you're telling them to swivel.
Jobs can always be found. Remember Norman Tebbit, 1981:
'He didn't riot. He got on his bike and looked for work, and he kept looking till he found it'
Let's stop this sponging.
But of course you wouldn't understand that. You're a Liberal Democrat! [for today anyway]
Davey or Moran.Hmm. With 2 other white male party leaders its really hard for Davey to pose as radical. I think he'd stand a better chance with the membership focusing on local politics rather than trying to woo Gen Z and anyone else that doesn't remember the tuition fees balls up.
Listening to the stuff he is putting out I think he can disarm the coalition years issue: 1. "I took on the Tories and won". According to the Tories everything that happened in the coalition they did. So simply reverse that. Everything good in the coalition was the LibDems. Everything bad was the Tories - and look at how bad they have been without us there to restrain them". Doesn't have to be true, just has to be spun hard enough to resonate with the times. And the Tories post 2015 have been truly awful... 2. The tuition fees fiasco was a major mistake by Nick Clegg. He didn't tell us that was his plan until it was too late. For all the hurt that has caused I am sorry, the party has moved on from Nick Clegg's time"
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
The whole point of UBI is that you don't do this. You have a single payment. Otherwise, you eliminate a lot of the gains / savings on admin of a single un-means tested benefits system.
UBI + loads of current benefits is worst of both worlds.
There are lots of different UBI proposals with different aims.
Some are effectively delivering QE cutting out the banking middleman with low level grants to everyone directly
Others are to replace benefits and cut admin costs.
I presumed we weren't talking about the US temporary QE type approach of a few months of payments (which on a recent Freakonomics episode was highly criticized by economists, they stated the UK furlough scheme was much better use of money).
UBI is universal basic income. The first word in that is "universal", which means you give it to everyone both rich and poor. You can remove it at higher incomes with a tax taper if you like. You should scrap the state pension if you're going ahead with this.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
It is a perfectly reasonable positioning. It would probably work well for Starmer as it did for Cameron. Gives him the excuse to ignore the remnants of the Corbynista wing. I think the electorate would like it too. I think many people liked the Coalition government. Interestingly it was a damn sight more effective and competent than the bunch of lightweight muppets we have currently got.
It's reasonable positioning - but how does this approach result in seat gains?
The seats the Lib Dems need to win are Tory seats, they're competing with the wrong party again. I'm not against a clear stance for the Lib Dems so we know what they stand for but it seems to me that trying to do what Ashdown did with Blair is faulty as their seat makeup isn't the same as it was then.
There's an argument that the Lib Dems will do better as people aren't afraid of Starmer as a PM and that's compelling - but the sensible thing then would be to pitch yourself right of Labour. People will want to stop Labour's excesses, not make them more left wing.
There are many people like me that loath the direction that Johnson and Cummings have taken the Conservatives and therefore will not vote Tory at the next election. I have never voted Labour, but have voted LD a few times. If a LD has a chance of winning in my constituency then I would vote LD and will feel a lot more comfortable about that choice with Corbyn no longer as the alternative PM.
I think LDs will do a lot better in LD/Tory marginals now because of that factor. Whether their manifesto is left or right of Labour is almost immaterial as most people don't take much notice. LDs took Tory votes in the Blair years because a lot of Tories were OK with a centrist Labour government, so could vote against the pre-Cameron right wing version of the Tories- a party that was not as right wing dominated as the current incarnation.
For the sake of argument, how would we rate a Pence vs Biden race compared to Trump vs Biden? Given the generic polling I find it easier to see a path to victory for Trump; If he didn't want to run I non-ironically feel like he'd be better substituting Ivanka, she keeps basically the entire Trumpist vote and can also probably swing some moderates looking for a fresh face.
Yes Biden would beat Pence in my view, Trump v Biden is still too close to call as far as I am concerned
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
About a third is our existing social security and pensions budget, elsewhere we could run a smaller much govt across the board with a high UBI, and yes it obviously would need significant tax changes, not sure why you would need nil or low rate NI or income tax bands for example.
I am an anti-Conservative politician, and that’s how I would lead our party. We are a million miles from the Tories. While we promote international co-operation and human rights abroad, they pull up the drawbridge. While we want world-leading plans for a Green Revolution, their climate plans are timid at best. While we would root out poverty and inequality, the Conservatives have no commitment to social justice and have failed to take any action in response to the Black Lives Matter protests.
At least that's kind of better - but I think it's the wrong direction to be going in.
By implication he's saying he'd support Labour.
And with that go Lib Dem hopes of turning the South West yellow...
Only 3 of the top 20 LD target seats are now in the South West compared to 12 in London and the South East
Id consider myself a radical centrist. I absolutely see the need for significant and fundamental change, but just couldnt care less whether the solution to a problem is from the left or right as long as it is effective. Sometimes the most effective is from the lefts "toolkit", sometimes its from the rights "toolkit".
A good post. People often make the mistake of thinking centrists are somehow wet lettuces! It is time centrists started being more aggressive and attacking the extremes that are fundamentally damaging to the economy and the country. I am a right of centre centrist, but I would like to see a left of centre Labour party as a credible alternative so we can get rid of Johnson and his gang of lightweight incompetents.
Most normals aren't political and aren't ideological. They want stuff done and if it works then who cares if its "left" or "right".
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
They can't "get back to work" you wazzock if their company has gone pop. We're facing into 5-6m unemployed and you're telling them to swivel.
Jobs can always be found. Remember Norman Tebbit, 1981:
'He didn't riot. He got on his bike and looked for work, and he kept looking till he found it'
Let's stop this sponging.
But of course you wouldn't understand that. You're a Liberal Democrat! [for today anyway]
Just so we're clear. You are saying that everyone not working is "sponging".
Comments
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1275727461754560512?s=20
https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1275728145719705601?s=20
Mathematically 1.01 is exponential growth, but as the figures we are seeing are estimates with a confidence intervall around them, you can't conclude that R=1.01 really does indicate exponential growth
https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1275510556011778049?s=20
If Trump is not on the ballot they might even vote for Biden over Pence or Haley
11 million a year (and these savings never work out as big as planned). That seems like a total drop in the bucket. How much have staffing costs gone up under him?
Trump is not going to meekly quit as a "loser". He is going to go down fighting as a martyr. If he loses the election it will be the fault of the following: Liberals. Obama. The lying fake news media. His idiot staffers. China. And to try to avoid losing every dirty trick you can think of will be deployed.
We're already witnessing the facade of democracy being removed with voting stations removed in black areas. With the conspiratorial attacks against postal voting. With armed militia storming state capitol buildings. Expect all of this writ large - GOP election officials rigging the voting process to disenfranchise blacks, latinos, "criminals" etc, groups of armed "patriots" providing "protection" for the constitution by forming militia that literally chase off non-Trump voters.
Yes all this sounds appalling. But we're already seeing it happen in the test phase. And these "patriots" believe that their actions are ordained by God.
Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets.
However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
It is possible that the GOP could topple him, but still quite unlikely.
This is complete nonsense, a quick google of reputable news sources will tell you that.
It will take a long time, a vaccine (or a disastrous failure) to get to herd immunity.
If not 60% what value do you suggest?
https://theconversation.com/what-is-herd-immunity-and-how-many-people-need-to-be-vaccinated-to-protect-a-community-116355
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1275733209666420737
The radical centre - taking what works from left and right and applying them as solutions for a population that largely isn't politically ideological. Makes sense to me. And lets the party do what it needs to get back to - taking Tory seats where they are the target and taking Labour seats likewise.
Mr. Biden is currently ahead of Mr. Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared with 36 percent for Mr. Trump. That is among the most dismal showings of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.
Nearly three-fifths of voters disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including majorities of white voters and men. Self-described moderate voters disapproved of Mr. Trump on the coronavirus by a margin of more than two to one.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/world/coronavirus-updates.html#link-30be8e18
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/crosstabs0624release/18307fed6cb2dc5a/full.pdf
I think it may well be coming down the line.
It's only paradoxical if you define everything in right/left terms -though I am disappointed that he should feel it necessary to nod to that with his "centre left" description.
In any event, governments of all political stripes enact radical policies from time to time.
https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1275729185592541187
Where Yang leads.......
Japan has given the UK just six weeks to strike a post-Brexit deal, putting Boris Johnson’s government under pressure to agree one of the fastest trade negotiations in history — and Britain’s first in more than 40 years.
Time is so short that both sides will need to “limit their ambitions”, warned Hiroshi Matsuura, Tokyo’s chief negotiator, in comments that dash UK hopes of winning deep trade liberalisation from Japan.
While meeting the timetable would hand Mr Johnson an early trade victory, it also highlights the risk of the UK being bounced into bad deals before the Brexit transition expires at the end of the year.
https://www.ft.com/content/a70e644e-f585-4d20-8551-9e3972004f4f
The new place is 60% smaller, and the old one was already overcrowded.
And it is half a mile from the nearest tube station.
Suspect that finding a way to work with 100 fewer tube drivers may have been a better idea, which would have saved similar money.
Perhaps they will do both.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eb96e8e86650c278b077616/Keeping-workers-and-customers-safe-during-covid-19-restaurants-pubs-bars-takeaways-230620.pdf
It includes this clear guidance on collecting customer details:
'You should assist this service [NHS Test and Trace] by keeping a temporary record of your customers and visitors for 21 days, in a way that is manageable for your business, and assist NHS Test and Trace with requests for that data if needed.'
If the pitch is not hit and flies straight into the catcher's mit, then he just throws it straight back to the pitcher. If the ball is foul-tipped (snicked) or ends up in the dirt, then the catcher lobs it to the home plate umpire who gives it a quick check and usually throws it to the pitcher. The do get through a hell of a lot more balls than in cricket though.
If a home run is hit then the spectator who catches the ball is allowed to keep it. That would be a great strategy if allowed in cricket. Don't like how this ball is starting to reverse swing, try and hit it into the crowd.
Anyway the idea of having a new ball every over in cricket is crazy. No spinners would bowl all summer.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
1. "I took on the Tories and won". According to the Tories everything that happened in the coalition they did. So simply reverse that. Everything good in the coalition was the LibDems. Everything bad was the Tories - and look at how bad they have been without us there to restrain them". Doesn't have to be true, just has to be spun hard enough to resonate with the times. And the Tories post 2015 have been truly awful...
2. The tuition fees fiasco was a major mistake by Nick Clegg. He didn't tell us that was his plan until it was too late. For all the hurt that has caused I am sorry, the party has moved on from Nick Clegg's time"
Trump’s best chance for shenanigans would be to use the Coronavirus crisis to urge GOP-controlled states to cancel the Presidential election altogether in their states and appoint their Electoral College members directly. This would in fact be perfectly constitutional: it last occurred in 1876 when Colorado was admitted to the Union too late in the year to hold an election.
To be honest though, I don’t think that’s at all likely and even if Trump could get the Republican legislatures in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to play ball, their Democratic governors would veto it from orbit.
Best chance for Trump is if the Electoral College fails to elect a President (at least 273 EC votes are required), then the House holds a “contingent election”. This does not favour the Democrats as the election is conducted by state with each state delegation having one vote. Even with the expected D gains in November the Republicans would have a majority of delegations. I don’t think there’s much likelihood of this happening though.
And as to voter suppression, well it’s what Republicans do, but I’m pretty sanguine about it, as they’ve pretty much done as much ad they can anyway. Any further measures are likely to hurt their own electorate as much as the Democrats’. Trump’s recent railing against postal voting is a case in point: it’s as likely to suppress the turnout of older potential Republican voters as younger potential Democratic ones.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
(I jest, to be clear.)
At least that's kind of better - but I think it's the wrong direction to be going in.
By implication he's saying he'd support Labour.
No I've not done the sums.
I don't recall what concessions the Japanese made to the EU, and whether and to what extent they apply to the sort of goods the UK deals in.
'We [the government] will work with industry and relevant bodies to design this system in line with data protection legislation, and set out details shortly.'
Could be a lot of fun and games with GDPR!
The seats the Lib Dems need to win are Tory seats, they're competing with the wrong party again. I'm not against a clear stance for the Lib Dems so we know what they stand for but it seems to me that trying to do what Ashdown did with Blair is faulty as their seat makeup isn't the same as it was then.
There's an argument that the Lib Dems will do better as people aren't afraid of Starmer as a PM and that's compelling - but the sensible thing then would be to pitch yourself right of Labour. People will want to stop Labour's excesses, not make them more left wing.
UBI + loads of current benefits is worst of both worlds.
Biden 1.695
Trump 2.87
Pence 105
H Clinton 105 (who on earth is betting on her?) (more has been staked on her than on Pence!)
Last matched prices, Rep candidate as result of convention (market £3m):
Trump 1.07
Pence 26
Haley 28
Romney 200
Ryan 250
Kasich 550
Personally I don't think T will quit but I've too much respect for the likes of OGH, PfP and your good self to dismiss the idea entirely. I've hedged a bit by just laying Trump. It wouldn't be as profitable as what you have done but it would pay, and avoid the frustration of The Orange One being replaced by someone really wacky - Ted Cuz for example.
The economy is an act of confidence. People believe they have money they can spend so they buy goods/services. Without enough money to pay for said goods/services they either get into debt or do without. If enough people do without the providers of those goods / services go under and yet more people don't have the cash.
Think of UBI as a guaranteed way to keep money circulating through the economy. Money circulating drives consumption which creates jobs...
Some are effectively delivering QE cutting out the banking middleman with low level grants to everyone directly
Others are to replace benefits and cut admin costs.
I see no point in giving everybody a small amount every month long term plus the benefits system. You can basically do this via current system plus altering tax credits and tax boundaries.
Trump 2.9 - act NOW if you wish to lay with a 2 handle.
3.5 by Sept. 5 by eve of election. Landslide 3/11.
#trumptoast
'He didn't riot. He got on his bike and looked for work, and he kept looking till he found it'
Let's stop this sponging.
But of course you wouldn't understand that. You're a Liberal Democrat! [for today anyway]
You should scrap the state pension if you're going ahead with this.
I think LDs will do a lot better in LD/Tory marginals now because of that factor. Whether their manifesto is left or right of Labour is almost immaterial as most people don't take much notice. LDs took Tory votes in the Blair years because a lot of Tories were OK with a centrist Labour government, so could vote against the pre-Cameron right wing version of the Tories- a party that was not as right wing dominated as the current incarnation.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/wife-of-former-cabinet-minister-owen-paterson-found-dead-at-their-family-home/ar-BB15UbxC?ocid=msedgntp
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat