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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could it be even at this late stage that Trump doesn’t become the nominee?
The above video is one of a series of hard attacking ads against Donald Trump that are being produced by an apparently well funded Republican organisation called the Lincoln Project. They are aimed at the Republicans and the aim is to raise doubts about the incumbent’s fitness to continue in office and so preventing a second term.
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I too don't think that Trump will be disinvited from standing on the Republican ticket but there's no love lost for him within the party and the way things are going, the Democrats are rightly odds-on to win in November.
Back in the UK the Gov't have eased restrictions far too rapidly and with an already complacent and ignorant public we are heading for BIG trouble. A serious second wave is now inevitable I fear.
So to get rid of Trump you need to somehow persuade *Trump* that it's a bad idea for him to run. You might try to persuade him that he's doomed to defeat, but he's not exactly renowned for listening to dispassionate expertise, and he looked doomed last time and still came back and won.
There's also the possibility of ill health or death, and there is a pandemic raging, but the probability of nature stepping in by November recedes with every month he survives.
On topic, I'm waiting to see what 'funnies' Trump comes out with in Arizona, a State where the virus is definitely spreading.
And we plan to go and see family on Saturday; first time we'll have seen that group of grandchildren in the flesh for ages.
Does anyone else find that pre-and early teens are not coping well with isolation from their friends? Becoming withdrawn?
Biden recognised the danger of in JANUARY!
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/nobody-expected-the-coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-did.html
However, in practice I don’t think it’s possible. If elections could be held in 1864 and 1944 it could only be because there is no real way of postponing them.
So, as I predicted weeks ago, we have had a lockdown that has been utterly destructive to the economy (Telegraph yesterday suggested a cost of 165bn to save an estimated 50,000 lives - making the point some here have made that this figure was way in excess of NICE guidelines). But moreover we have had a lockdown that has not worked.
I'm not going to say all this has been for nothing (based on the above figure of it saving 50k lives) but it has been an obscenely expensive way to do it.
The question is what next. A second wave is almost certainly coming. We cannot afford a second lockdown - nor can we imagine it will be adhered to if it's implemented.
Sounds like big trouble ahead for the government.
Indeed he may last longer, but that depends on covid and how Boris and Rishi deal with the economy
Trump’s term ends at noon on 20th January. That is flat, that is final.
However, there is a loophole that if nobody has been elected president by then, Congress (in practice, the House) can nominate an acting president until such time as an election is held. While this was to deal with deadlocks in the electoral college, it seems valid for the current case as well.
So, in theory, the election could be postponed and an acting president appointed.
HOWEVER, as the House is controlled by the Dems, that would not of course be Trump. You would have thought they would nominate Pelosi, or possibly Warren.
Which means, of course, that Trump will not want to delay the election as it is the only way he can stay in power.
Edit - all this presupposes the thread header is moot and he is the nominee. I’d love for him not to be, and for Haley or Rice or Rubio, somebody sane, to appear. But I do not see it.
They won't move against Boris unless and until he looks like losing.
Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t. We can’t know because if it had run riot we don’t know what the effects would have been. Although Brazil might be about to give some indication.
What I do say is that what has happened up to now will be less important than the way the government manages the recovery. The epic clusterfuck they have made of reopening schools doesn’t fill me with confidence.
A lot more people waking up to the fact they won't be coming back off furlough.
You are right that "was it all worth it" will be the mood music of the next few months (before Wave II comes...)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/16/germany-vietnam-test-trace-england-coronavirus
I was entirely convinced that what my brother in law had in December was CCAD. (or CFAD). I told him so many times.
But...don't forget...the source of this CCAD has now tested antibody positive. Perhaps he had an asymptomatic case in March or April, but it is a bit of a coincidence!
Will the antibody test ever become generally available?
In short winning the White House this November, might not be enough to rid the world of Trump. Perhaps a Pyrrhic victory.
There might also be some Conservatives who care about Brexit. Unlikely, I know. What Boris and Cummings realise is that, especially since David Cameron did not force Eurosceptics to define Brexit before the referendum, is that most Brexiteers care only for the fact of Brexit, not the nature of it. This includes the Prime Minister himself.
But it is possible that for one or two Brexiteers, the ones not appointed to the Cabinet to act as human shields, Boris's BINO, aggravated by his tactic of capitulating to the EU while declaring victory (shades of Trump!) might prove a step not far enough.
He can take the hit, and then someone else come in.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/
I think he will be the candidate. I think that we will see even more of the distortions, dirty tricks and outright lies that we saw with "crooked Hillary". I fear we will see repeats of the nonsense of 600k+ people and one polling station. I remain fearful that this vile man will find a way to win. But, thankfully, it looks increasingly unlikely.
I think the closest anyone came in the twentieth century was Taft, who nearly lost to Roosevelt, and Johnson, who could have lost had he actually fought the primaries.
But even Ford and Hoover were renominated.
There have been four basic responses to the CV-19 crisis:
1. Complete early travel and internal lockdown
2. Belated - but broadly complete - lockdowns
3. Belated and half-hearted lockdowns
4. No (or only targeted) lockdowns
Now, we can argue about categorisation, but New Zealand is clearly in (1), while Sweden is in (4).
Economic damage seems to be broadly consistent among the four groups. Sweden's economy has no better PMIs than the UK, and is rather worse than Germany (in group 2) or New Zealand (group 1).
Second waves, assuming that the community prevalence is relatively well contained (most of Europe, most of Asia) can be largely avoided by rules that limit only a small portion of activity: masks on public transports, restrictions on choirs and nightclubs.
Those countries that went for (3), such as the US, or (4), such as Sweden are not bouncing back better than those in (1) or (2). And - based on the fact that places like Arizona are now locking down again - seem to be in a worse position.
Why?
Because people don't just act according to government advice, they act according to whether they feel safe. If they don't feel safe, there is a de facto lockdown. Which means all the economic damage without actually getting rid of the virus.
Have you been drinking?
Even supermarket retail is not completely immune as my daughter sadly found out yesterday. Our spending patterns have been disrupted and will remain so.
Causality seems to exist only dependent on the desire of the speaker.
For me personally, I will be looking at the incidence of this virus in the community. If I am persuaded that there is no sign of it locally I may be fairly relaxed about going to a restaurant or café. If it is still present neither I nor my family will.
Is that clear? I could see the Senate rejecting Pelosi and Trump arguing that there is deadlock so the incumbent remains in place
The Trump admin is making people forget how corrupt the GWB admin was and the failure to punish them for their corruption emboldened the GOP.
And Biden has signalled he will be jusy as soft, if not more so.
Honestly, has Hyufd hacked your account? I’ll be watching closely to see if you start dissing Radiohead...
You are making the mistake of looking at the input, not the output.
The exception is the US, which has taken a Swedish approach to a population that really needs a Chinese approach.
Now, this is where it gets murky. In theory, if there is no winner from the Presidential election, it then goes to the nominated Vice President. That could be done by the Senate. However, you could argue that if there is no election, there is no Vice President either. Therefore, the House could claim the right to nominate an acting President, and there would be a logic to putting forward the Speaker as third in line.
Of course, there might be other problems and other solutions. The senate could nominate a rival claimant. In which case, it would end in the Supreme Court. Or Congress could meet in joint session, in which case the Dems would still have a majority. Or Congress itself might be declared not to be valid, as there had been no elections. In which case the only real solution would be for the non-disqualified members of the Senate to vote on matters.
But my instinct is it would go to the House. That’s the simplest, quickest and most logical route to follow.
In a sense though this is moot. Because what matters is what Trump understands. The moment he appreciates that if there are no elections he’s more buggered than a reluctant Turkish conscript, it doesn’t matter what subsequent process will be followed - he’ll make damn good and sure there are elections, and as noted upthread, the pandemic actually offers him massive advantages in terms of winning again despite being more out his depth than a midge swimming in the Mindanao Deep.
By "control", I mean keeping the cases to sporadic outbreaks. You can live with those.
I have one issue with yesterday's announcement: I think opening up pubs, restaurants etc. to indoor use is too risky, and could cause a huge spike (and therefore damage the economy) as people gather to watch football in the pub etc. Social distancing of any sort will go out of the window. Our infection rates are still too high to risk this.
My suggestion: no indoor use of cafes, restaurants, bars during July or August while the weather is good. Review for September. But allow and encourage outdoor use now by letting all hospitality outlets expand tables and chairs outside as far as possible. Crucially, give local authorities immediate powers to close roads to traffic where appropriate to let pubs, cafes etc. sprawl unhindered across the streets of town and city centres.
A true continental cafe, pedestrianised culture here in the UK, and environmentally sound. And I think more people would go out and spend safe in the knowledge that transmission outside is much less likely.
The problem, and it is a very big problem, is that he is totally wrong. He is fizzing with imagination and mostly rather bizarre ideas, but is lazy and arrogant and as a result has no idea how to implement them, and as his understanding of the world around him is very limited he genuinely doesn’t understand the consequences of his actions so most of his attempts to implement his policies have been disastrous.
That’s why he is both a magnificent campaigner, and a rotten administrator whose business ventures all failed, and who kept losing his battles at the DfE, even as he thought he was winning most of them.
It’s also why he made such a shambles of his personal quarantine.
Value.
Or is that a bit to real world for the house cowerers ?
And if you think a second wave is coming then isn't increasing herd immunity now a good idea ?
Edit: to be clearer, the role of kingmaker requires the self-awareness to understand that you will never be a successful candidate for the role of king. I don’t believe Pelosi has that.
Agree with everything else, but lazy?
The evidence suggests that Cummings (and Gove) are running the country while Johnson fiddles.
There should be categorisation of countries from "little or no risk" (requiring self certification and tests, such as South Korea) through medium risk (requiring quarantine) to high risk (no flights).
They think it should be easier to travel from New York to London than from York to London.
Biden, though, is unlikely to stand for a second term.
And the likelihood is that a Trump loss will lead to some epic infighting amongst theRepublicans.