OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
Could be a good value hedge if Trump "health problems".
He's fucking mental. However that's a requirement of most of the GOP front runners so not a barrier to the nomination.
Trump is not going to meekly quit as a "loser". He is going to go down fighting as a martyr. If he loses the election it will be the fault of the following: Liberals. Obama. The lying fake news media. His idiot staffers. China. And to try to avoid losing every dirty trick you can think of will be deployed.
We're already witnessing the facade of democracy being removed with voting stations removed in black areas. With the conspiratorial attacks against postal voting. With armed militia storming state capitol buildings. Expect all of this writ large - GOP election officials rigging the voting process to disenfranchise blacks, latinos, "criminals" etc, groups of armed "patriots" providing "protection" for the constitution by forming militia that literally chase off non-Trump voters.
Yes all this sounds appalling. But we're already seeing it happen in the test phase. And these "patriots" believe that their actions are ordained by God.
GOP voter suppression is a disgrace. I can't think of one other developed nation where they would get away with the things that they do and they have the brass neck to lecture other countries on "democracy".
I guess it's where you end up when everything including the judiciary is party politicised. I agree that Trump will fight it out and expect to see corruption, voter fraud and suppression on a truly industrial scale and they won't even attempt to hide it. He's going to do his level best to steal this election and I am not convinced that he won't succeed.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
They can't "get back to work" you wazzock if their company has gone pop. We're facing into 5-6m unemployed and you're telling them to swivel.
One of the great successes of the Coalition was to make work pay, rather than just subsidising people with benefits. This is why unemployment never reached anywhere near the predicted heights due to the financial crisis. We need to get back to this. Whilst the furlough scheme has been necessary people have become too comfortable on it. I know of people who have requested that they remain on Furlough until October as they are enjoying their time at home too much.
Good job they got rid of the daily oress conferences, otherwise we would be having to endure months of "what about the second wave", "is the outbreak in Bognor the start of the second wave", "should we lockdown in case of the second wave", "should we not lockdown in the case of a second wave", (i have my figures totally wrong), so it looks like a second wave...questions.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
They can't "get back to work" you wazzock if their company has gone pop. We're facing into 5-6m unemployed and you're telling them to swivel.
Jobs can always be found. Remember Norman Tebbit, 1981:
'He didn't riot. He got on his bike and looked for work, and he kept looking till he found it'
Let's stop this sponging.
But of course you wouldn't understand that. You're a Liberal Democrat! [for today anyway]
Just so we're clear. You are saying that everyone not working is "sponging".
What I am saying is that a good proportion [not everyone] of those on benefits are sponging.
OGH has been arguing for a while that Trump may not be the GOP Presidential candidate and Peter from Putney has also made the same case here. I agree. The ignominy of electoral defeat, as the incumbent President, will be unacceptable to the Orange Narcissist. So if he becomes convinced he’s going to lose I think he will concoct a reason for a “noble” withdrawal. On the other hand his narcissism will encourage him to believe he can win despite the polls. Which path will his narcissism take him?
I’ve been betting that he won’t be the nominee by backing Pence at 42 and Haley at 65. £100 staked to win £2400+ if its Pence or Haley.
Could be a good value hedge if Trump "health problems".
He's fucking mental. However that's a requirement of most of the GOP front runners so not a barrier to the nomination.
Trump is not going to meekly quit as a "loser". He is going to go down fighting as a martyr. If he loses the election it will be the fault of the following: Liberals. Obama. The lying fake news media. His idiot staffers. China. And to try to avoid losing every dirty trick you can think of will be deployed.
We're already witnessing the facade of democracy being removed with voting stations removed in black areas. With the conspiratorial attacks against postal voting. With armed militia storming state capitol buildings. Expect all of this writ large - GOP election officials rigging the voting process to disenfranchise blacks, latinos, "criminals" etc, groups of armed "patriots" providing "protection" for the constitution by forming militia that literally chase off non-Trump voters.
Yes all this sounds appalling. But we're already seeing it happen in the test phase. And these "patriots" believe that their actions are ordained by God.
GOP voter suppression is a disgrace. I can't think of one other developed nation where they would get away with the things that they do and they have the brass neck to lecture other countries on "democracy".
I guess it's where you end up when everything including the judiciary is party politicised. I agree that Trump will fight it out and expect to see corruption, voter fraud and suppression on a truly industrial scale and they won't even attempt to hide it. He's going to do his level best to steal this election and I am not convinced that he won't succeed.
As with other American insanities its their country so whatever they want they get. People are obviously happy having partisan people running elections or they would vote to change it. In any election you always get the correct result, people get what they vote for. So if Trump is able to steal this then that's what people enabled with previous votes.
Davey proposing a move left then, why would you want to compete with Labour urghhhhh
LibDems are better able to take Tory seats than Labour are, even on similar policies. It is not competition with Labour but cooperation with Labour to take seats off the Tories and form a left of centre government which has the support of a majority of the country.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
I think UBI would have to include children though at a very much reduced rate.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
They can't "get back to work" you wazzock if their company has gone pop. We're facing into 5-6m unemployed and you're telling them to swivel.
Jobs can always be found. Remember Norman Tebbit, 1981:
'He didn't riot. He got on his bike and looked for work, and he kept looking till he found it'
Let's stop this sponging.
But of course you wouldn't understand that. You're a Liberal Democrat! [for today anyway]
Just so we're clear. You are saying that everyone not working is "sponging".
What I am saying is that a good proportion [not everyone] of those on benefits are sponging.
Yang's plan was for $1000 a month, so that'd be around £800/mth here. 40% tax rate at 20k going north to 60% at 50k to pay for it ? No I've not done the sums.
Ypu need to add in the savings on benefits and state pension.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
Exactly, how long until any UBI turns into just another benefit and we get additional child tax credits and working tax credits on top of it. The idea is completely ridiculous.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
In which Davey fought the Tories the way that matters: by ensuring in government that the Tories watered down their nonsense.
Davey has a tricky problem, which his launch statement might solve. In Tory-facing constituencies, most voters are more comfortable with one-nation Toryism than any other political brand. But the pool of potential party workers (absolutely essential for any third party to motivate) is comfier with Gordon Brown-style Social Democracy.
So you have to keep the activists pushing leaflets through doors on wet February Wednesdays (when the campaign for the May 2021 locals starts), while not frightening the Volvo-owning voters.
"Centre-left" is a good, non-frightening label to square that circle. And five years of real achievement in managing Tories is a record to boast about.
It's largely because of Davey's work in government that Britain's made its staggering progress in eliminating coal from electricity generation for the past three months.
And that's the kind of real action that motivates my one-nation Tory neighbours far more than Johnson's serial failures or Labour's continuing ambiguity on anti-semitism.
Swissport is set to cut more than half of its UK workforce as air companies struggle with the effects of the coronavirus crisis. It is consulting on cutting up to 4,556 jobs, the GMB union said.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
Exactly, how long until any UBI turns into just another benefit and we get additional child tax credits and working tax credits on top of it. The idea is completely ridiculous.
For me, it is one of these ideas that is probably not bad to an economist looking at theory, but then hits the real world, with politicians and pressure groups and the fact that the 0.01% that it doesn't work for isn't then just a number and the media will scream blue murder about the edge cases.
Good move in principle, but will be an interesting one to watch.
The new place is 60% smaller, and the old one was already overcrowded.
And it is half a mile from the nearest tube station.
Suspect that finding a way to work with 100 fewer tube drivers may have been a better idea, which would have saved similar money.
Perhaps they will do both.
1000 fewer, unless they're on £550k each Still, you could probably lose them all (how many are there?) and go for a DLR-like system, maybe with a lower paid conductor/safety office on each train? Massive strikes of course while that was implemented, which would be political suicide.
No.
The £55m is a five year figure. The claimed saving is £11m a year.
Your average tube driver is paid approx 75-80k a year, plus overheads and pensions etc make it near enough 110k.
Never trust anything any media say in a summary on any subject whatsoever without factchecking it to death .
"Leaving our current home would save £55 million over five years, which would help us to protect and invest in the things that matter most to Londoners, as well as supporting the regeneration of the Royal Docks."
It includes this clear guidance on collecting customer details:
'You should assist this service [NHS Test and Trace] by keeping a temporary record of your customers and visitors for 21 days, in a way that is manageable for your business, and assist NHS Test and Trace with requests for that data if needed.'
Sounds a lot less robust than the Guernsey "Customer Data" tracking that was in place earlier - that had to be available to the Track & Trace team 24/7. With stiff fines for non-compliance - including being shut down.
The document does go on to say:
'We [the government] will work with industry and relevant bodies to design this system in line with data protection legislation, and set out details shortly.'
Could be a lot of fun and games with GDPR!
Seems to be covered under article 6 (c), (d), (e) and (f) so not a great problem there!
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
Disagree. He needs to simplify his narrative, but he knows where it is going. Boris very blustery and is going to get the arse factchecked off him again. Speaker reprimand not good either.
Yang's plan was for $1000 a month, so that'd be around £800/mth here. 40% tax rate at 20k going north to 60% at 50k to pay for it ? No I've not done the sums.
Ypu need to add in the savings on benefits and state pension.
Pensioners already have triple locked UBI of course - nothing to do with them being the most powerful voting demographic at all.
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
So I don't even need to be watching PMQs to know that Starmer is right now handing Johnson his ass again. Week after week after week this happens. How much longer before Tory MPs get restless?
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
Total benefits are about £260 billion which would pay for £500 a month with no tax increase You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel. How much is spent on unemployment benefit? Here's a surprise.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
Disagree. He needs to simplify his narrative, but he knows where it is going. Boris very blustery and is going to get the arse factchecked off him again. Speaker reprimand not good either.
Good point about the narrative.
He is not in Court and needs to find a way of a simple argument
Good move in principle, but will be an interesting one to watch.
The new place is 60% smaller, and the old one was already overcrowded.
And it is half a mile from the nearest tube station.
Suspect that finding a way to work with 100 fewer tube drivers may have been a better idea, which would have saved similar money.
Perhaps they will do both.
1000 fewer, unless they're on £550k each Still, you could probably lose them all (how many are there?) and go for a DLR-like system, maybe with a lower paid conductor/safety office on each train? Massive strikes of course while that was implemented, which would be political suicide.
No.
The £55m is a five year figure. The claimed saving is £11m a year.
Your average tube driver is paid approx 75-80k a year, plus overheads and pensions etc make it near enough 110k.
So 100 tube drivers.
Never trust anything any media say on any subject whatsoever without factchecking it to death .
"Leaving our current home would save £55 million over five years, which would help us to protect and invest in the things that matter most to Londoners, as well as supporting the regeneration of the Royal Docks."
I stand corrected. Teach me right for trying to be a smart-arse
No idea tube drivers got that much. I'm in the wrong career!
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
Total benefits are about £260 billion which would pay for £500 a month with no tax increase You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel. How much is spent on unemployment benefit? Here's a surprise.
But that money is very much not distributed evenly in age and location!
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
Disagree. He needs to simplify his narrative, but he knows where it is going. Boris very blustery and is going to get the arse factchecked off him again. Speaker reprimand not good either.
And this is a pretty good line, in a "it's funny 'cause it's true" way:
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
If you read fact check nobody has a fully functional trace app
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
South Korea has a fully functioning app...just the west won't accept that level of monitoring.
It's not an app - it's surveillance via cellphone location. That gets round the biggest problem apps face - getting people to download them. The second biggest problem is that so far they can't tell the difference between 1m and 3m - which is a big deal if you are going to be ordering people into quarantine on its basis.
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
There will always be people looking for more benefits. The more you hand out, the more these people want.
The only solution is to get the economy moving, turn off the benefits tap and get people back to work!
They can't "get back to work" you wazzock if their company has gone pop. We're facing into 5-6m unemployed and you're telling them to swivel.
Jobs can always be found. Remember Norman Tebbit, 1981:
'He didn't riot. He got on his bike and looked for work, and he kept looking till he found it'
Let's stop this sponging.
But of course you wouldn't understand that. You're a Liberal Democrat! [for today anyway]
Just so we're clear. You are saying that everyone not working is "sponging".
What I am saying is that a good proportion [not everyone] of those on benefits are sponging.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
So I don't even need to be watching PMQs to know that Starmer is right now handing Johnson his ass again. Week after week after week this happens. How much longer before Tory MPs get restless?
Don't really see that myself. Starmer's Public Union masters have put him in a very difficult position. The amount of children not getting education is a disaster on so many levels and Starmer is prevented from doing the right thing for our children.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Biden is going high with his very positive effective ads to the middle class that don't mention Trump. He's leaving the negative attack ads to the Republican Lincoln Project.
I think it is a very effective "high/low" strategy. Leaves Trump reeling. Will he retire from the ring?
South Korea has a fully functioning app...just the west won't accept that level of monitoring.
It's not an app - it's surveillance via cellphone location. That gets round the biggest problem apps face - getting people to download them. The second biggest problem is that so far they can't tell the difference between 1m and 3m - which is a big deal if you are going to be ordering people into quarantine on its basis.
I am well aware that the South Korea system is much more encompassing, I suppose it depends how you want to argue what is fully functional and what is COVID "tracing". Most people in the street don't concern themselves where the processing is done and if there is other data scraping being used, just oh there is this thing I can download and it tells me if I have been exposed to somebody who has COVID and that I need to go and get a test at this time / location.
-----
The “self-quarantine safety protection” app, developed by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, allows those who have been quarantined to stay in touch with caseworkers. It also uses GPS to keep track of their location to make sure they are not breaking their quarantine, MIT Technology Review reports.
-----
The Corona 100m (Co100) app, was launched on February 11 and, using government data, alerts users when they come within 100 metres of a location visited by an infected person. It had a million downloads in its first ten days after launch, according to South Korean government website Korea.net, which said the app “allows users to conveniently avoid potentially dangerous locations without checking the travel histories of those infected”.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
Disagree. He needs to simplify his narrative, but he knows where it is going. Boris very blustery and is going to get the arse factchecked off him again. Speaker reprimand not good either.
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
If you read fact check nobody has a fully functional trace app
I read it as several countries having "a functioning track and trace app" (part in quotes the thing that Johnson claimed no country has). The apps exist and they function. What's not yet clear is whether enough people will voluntarily use them to make them useful. The UK does not appear to have a functioning tack and trace app.
So I don't even need to be watching PMQs to know that Starmer is right now handing Johnson his ass again. Week after week after week this happens. How much longer before Tory MPs get restless?
Don't really see that myself. Starmer's Public Union masters have put him in a very difficult position. The amount of children not getting education is a disaster on so many levels and Starmer is prevented from doing the right thing for our children.
Even working on the basis that there's any truth in that assertion, can you say what is the clear and straightforward plan that BJ and the Tories are proposing to do 'the right thing for our children'?
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
If you read fact check nobody has a fully functional trace app
I read it as several countries having "a functioning track and trace app" (part in quotes the thing that Johnson claimed no country has). The apps exist and they function. What's not yet clear is whether enough people will voluntarily use them to make them useful. The UK does not appear to have a functioning tack and trace app.
Indeed and confirms no country has an app that is 'fully' operational across all it's citizens
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
Davey proposing a move left then, why would you want to compete with Labour urghhhhh
LibDems are better able to take Tory seats than Labour are, even on similar policies. It is not competition with Labour but cooperation with Labour to take seats off the Tories and form a left of centre government which has the support of a majority of the country.
NonLibs are finished unless they become Liberal again, not just another bunch of stateists as they are. Majority of the country, maybe in your dreams.
So I don't even need to be watching PMQs to know that Starmer is right now handing Johnson his ass again. Week after week after week this happens. How much longer before Tory MPs get restless?
So I don't even need to be watching PMQs to know that Starmer is right now handing Johnson his ass again. Week after week after week this happens. How much longer before Tory MPs get restless?
Don't really see that myself. Starmer's Public Union masters have put him in a very difficult position. The amount of children not getting education is a disaster on so many levels and Starmer is prevented from doing the right thing for our children.
Well I'm not watching - I find that the best way to avoid cognitive bias.
But I dispute the "union masters" perception. Starmer is simply positioning for a series of "I told you so"s if things go pear.
Key line from Starmer today after observing that 65,000 have died as a result of covid-19: "The Prime Minister should welcome challenges that may save lives, rather than complaining about it."
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
"It adds that the rate is believed to have risen recently, and explains: “We believe that this is likely to be due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings.”
Protests and illegal raves....for the record I am kinda of joking.
The Huffington Post writer is either a moron or being deliberately misleading over this following passage though.
"The report also includes other data that have not been made public – most notably that the daily estimate of the number of daily new infections last Thursday stood at 7,000. This is in contrast to the figure of actual positive tests reported for the same day, which was 1,346."
The government scientists have said for ages that the rough rule of thumb is at least x5 the number of tests positives. This is totally consistent with this.
Key line from Starmer today after observing that 65,000 have died as a result of covid-19: "The Prime Minister should welcome challenges that may save lives, rather than complaining about it."
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Biden's going to win because he's NOT AOC. If you want a credible path back for the GOP after the shellacking they'll take this time it'll be precisely when the Democrats DO stand an AOC type for the presidency in 2028.
Cummings doesn’t rate anybody. He genuinely thinks he is one of the greatest intellects of our times, the last true polymath.
The problem, and it is a very big problem, is that he is totally wrong. He is fizzing with imagination and mostly rather bizarre ideas, but is lazy and arrogant and as a result has no idea how to implement them, and as his understanding of the world around him is very limited he genuinely doesn’t understand the consequences of his actions so most of his attempts to implement his policies have been disastrous.
That’s why he is both a magnificent campaigner, and a rotten administrator whose business ventures all failed, and who kept losing his battles at the DfE, even as he thought he was winning most of them.
It’s also why he made such a shambles of his personal quarantine.
I get the impression he thinks hes an amazing innovator when hes more just in favour of disrupting the system, no matter the system. Which can be very necessary but is not inherently a good thing with everything.
So I put him in the bracket of those who suggest ideas because it upsets the 'right people' as if that automatically means it must be good. He'll be right sometimes, but not as much as he thinks.
Any fool can destroy. Creating something worthwhile which lasts is much much harder.
I agree, although tearing down now and coming up with a plan later seems all the rage these days.
Key line from Starmer today after observing that 65,000 have died as a result of covid-19: "The Prime Minister should welcome challenges that may save lives, rather than complaining about it."
I wonder if things would have turned out differently had Starmer been in post at the start of March?
Ultimately we need to decide what matters. Starmer is kind of suggesting that one death is one too many, but the reality is that eradication is not possible unless you're New Zealand, for example. Even the saintly Germans still have it.
And this business of 'come behind us and support us' he's behaving like the turd that he is.
He hates to be challenged.
On one level, that's been known for a while.
Get rid of people who might challenge him from Cabinet and the backbenches? Tick.
Avoid the Andrew Neil interview during the election campaign? Tick.
It's also worth remembering that he didn't have that much experience as a Minister before becoming PM, so he hasn't spent that much time getting good at this answering questions lark.
Trouble is that, at the moment, answering questions on the spot in public is part of the job which he has craved for so long.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Biden is going high with his very positive effective ads to the middle class that don't mention Trump. He's leaving the negative attack ads to the Republican Lincoln Project.
I think it is a very effective "high/low" strategy. Leaves Trump reeling. Will he retire from the ring?
I think he'll want to swing some punches first so unless his party revoke his licence - which I just don't see - he will be pulling on the trunks. And I hope he does. The fight will be ugly but imo it's necessary.
Why do you think that would be the case in the UK and not the US? Personally I think they reopened golf courses too early.
twitter.com/cnni/status/1275754313780953088
The new positive case numbers doesn't seem to chime with this. Everywhere that has had big protests, except the already hard hit cities of NY and Washington, have seen big spikes.
Also..."The study comes as new data shows that more and more young people are testing positive for coronavirus, particularly in states that have opened back up."
Young people are the people who are at the protests, just saying like. And according to the academic study, everybody else has increased their social distancing due to avoiding protests....does not compute.
I doubt protests are the only reason, but 10,000s of people standing huddled together for hours on end, coughing and spluttering due to tear gas. I struggle to believe that isn't a vector of transmission.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Agreed, the Republican establishment despise Trump and want him to lose but they wanted him to lose in 2016 too, hence you had the likes of Bush Snr voting for Hillary and Romney voting to impeach Trump and now Colin Powell and Cindy McCain and John Bolton saying they will vote for Biden or want Trump defeated.
However it is not them who are the key swing voters in this election but rustbelt white working class Democrats who swung behind Trump and gave him victory in key states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan Biden must win back to be elected
You have to hand it to shagger. The sheer bare-faced cheek in trying to insist that not only did they not have a test track and trace app as critical to their plans, but that no-one has one. "Germany does" - NOOOO
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
If you read fact check nobody has a fully functional trace app
I read it as several countries having "a functioning track and trace app" (part in quotes the thing that Johnson claimed no country has). The apps exist and they function. What's not yet clear is whether enough people will voluntarily use them to make them useful. The UK does not appear to have a functioning tack and trace app.
Indeed and confirms no country has an app that is 'fully' operational across all it's citizens
The qualifier 'fully' was not present in what Johnson said, unless fullfact misquotes him. Quote they give is "Yes of course it’s perfectly true that it would be great to have an app, but no country currently has a functioning track and trace app".
Several countries do have a functioning track and trace app. Maybe he just got his words wrong and meant functioning (app based) track and trace *system*. That's arguably true, depending how you define functioning.
Key line from Starmer today after observing that 65,000 have died as a result of covid-19: "The Prime Minister should welcome challenges that may save lives, rather than complaining about it."
What has Starmer put forward that may help. Answer nothing, back to school no chance, health drive for the nation no, a look at why the NHS recovery rate is so low, not a prayer. No not a thing and Johnson get's a free pass on the ridiculous situation where recreational sport is still banned and gym's shut. Both would be a huge plus for mental and physical health.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
Key line from Starmer today after observing that 65,000 have died as a result of covid-19: "The Prime Minister should welcome challenges that may save lives, rather than complaining about it."
I wonder if things would have turned out differently had Starmer been in post at the start of March?
Ultimately we need to decide what matters. Starmer is kind of suggesting that one death is one too many, but the reality is that eradication is not possible unless you're New Zealand, for example. Even the saintly Germans still have it.
Starmer's question was a good one but I'm not sure his figures were accurate. I think the issue now is the turnaround time from test to result. Test to result needs to be less than 48 hours. Crack that and all methods of track and trace, app and no app become far more effective. It's a bit worrying that we don't get the number of people tested per day in the Gov't information. Indicates the whole system whilst having a good capacity for volume now isn't quite as organised as it should be.
You can't have UBI and any sort of freedom of movement / entitlement to benefits for a significant period of time.
I'm just glad we have so much spare cash hanging around looking for a good home to fund it. I mean, its not as if our debt/GDP ratio has just passed 100% for the first time since 1963, is it?
Here's the problem. The economy has contracted significantly. We're now seeing the shakeout of the companies laid to waste by the lockdown and the rate of failures is going to accelerate rapidly as furlough winds down and economic activity doesn't wind up.
The economy is an act of confidence. People believe they have money they can spend so they buy goods/services. Without enough money to pay for said goods/services they either get into debt or do without. If enough people do without the providers of those goods / services go under and yet more people don't have the cash.
Think of UBI as a guaranteed way to keep money circulating through the economy. Money circulating drives consumption which creates jobs...
The numbers do not add up without eyewatering levels of taxation which add to the disincentive to work that is arguably contained in UBI. So I fear such a policy would aggravate rather than mitigate the problems we undoubtedly face.
I also find Davey's positioning as an "anti-Tory" quite bizarre. At the 2019 election at his insistence the Lib Dems had a fiscal policy that was well to the right of and more cautious than Boris. More like the sort of policies that Davey enthusiastically supported in the Coalition when George was Chancellor, in fact.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Agreed, the Republican establishment despise Trump and want him to lose but they wanted him to lose in 2016 too, hence you had the likes of Bush Snr voting for Hillary and Romney voting to impeach Trump and now Colin Powell and Cindy McCain and John Bolton saying they will vote for Biden or want Trump defeated.
However it is not them who are the key swing voters in this election but rustbelt white working class Democrats who swung behind Trump and gave him victory in key states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan Biden must win back to be elected
Whoever wins Florida will probably prevail. That maybe crucially is GOP governed, most of the other swing states are not and seem very keen on holding back the economic re-opening. A big problem for Trump possibly as he gave the shut down the green light. A choice he may regret now.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
Total benefits are about £260 billion which would pay for £500 a month with no tax increase You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel. How much is spent on unemployment benefit? Here's a surprise.
All of these benefits are directed to people who need it, UBI will end up in the hands of people like me, even at 40% tax it's a complete waste of money. The only way to make it work is to have it set at a much higher level otherwise it's reducing the budget for people who need it and giving it to people like me who really don't. I'd go on the record to The Times and other newspapers of record and open up my own income statements and show how futile giving money to people like me really is.
Why do you think that would be the case in the UK and not the US? Personally I think they reopened golf courses too early.
twitter.com/cnni/status/1275754313780953088
The new positive case numbers doesn't seem to chime with this. Everywhere that has had big protests, except the already hard hit cities of NY and Washington, have seen big spikes.
Also..."The study comes as new data shows that more and more young people are testing positive for coronavirus, particularly in states that have opened back up."
Young people are the people who are at the protests, just saying like. And according to the academic study, everybody else has increased their social distancing due to avoiding protests....does not compute.
I doubt protests are the only reason, but 10,000s of people standing huddled together for hours on end, coughing and spluttering due to tear gas. I struggle to believe that isn't a vector of transmission.
It’s good to see you know more than the people who actually did the study. Have to say you read it very quickly - or did you just pick the quote from the article?
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
I think you will find I was massively critical of lots of different groups actions, not just young people.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Gosh. I spy somebody who still thinks Donald Trump is a "smart businessman" who is "not a politician" and thus "knows how to get things done"?
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
Total benefits are about £260 billion which would pay for £500 a month with no tax increase You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel. How much is spent on unemployment benefit? Here's a surprise.
All of these benefits are directed to people who need it, UBI will end up in the hands of people like me, even at 40% tax it's a complete waste of money. The only way to make it work is to have it set at a much higher level otherwise it's reducing the budget for people who need it and giving it to people like me who really don't. I'd go on the record to The Times and other newspapers of record and open up my own income statements and show how futile giving money to people like me really is.
You'd have it taken off in a taper. I think UBI could be amazing for *essential workers*, to channel Joe Biden.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
Total benefits are about £260 billion which would pay for £500 a month with no tax increase You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel. How much is spent on unemployment benefit? Here's a surprise.
All of these benefits are directed to people who need it, UBI will end up in the hands of people like me, even at 40% tax it's a complete waste of money. The only way to make it work is to have it set at a much higher level otherwise it's reducing the budget for people who need it and giving it to people like me who really don't. I'd go on the record to The Times and other newspapers of record and open up my own income statements and show how futile giving money to people like me really is.
Indeed, unless AI and the effects of the lockdown and Covid lead to a big rise in long term unemployment and reduction in full time, permanent jobs then UBI is not realistic
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Agreed, the Republican establishment despise Trump and want him to lose but they wanted him to lose in 2016 too, hence you had the likes of Bush Snr voting for Hillary and Romney voting to impeach Trump and now Colin Powell and Cindy McCain and John Bolton saying they will vote for Biden or want Trump defeated.
However it is not them who are the key swing voters in this election but rustbelt white working class Democrats who swung behind Trump and gave him victory in key states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan Biden must win back to be elected
Whoever wins Florida will probably prevail. That maybe crucially is GOP governed, most of the other swing states are not and seem very keen on holding back the economic re-opening. A big problem for Trump possibly as he gave the shut down the green light. A choice he may regret now.
Florida and Pennsylvania are the key swing states this time yes
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
Watch the economic numbers. If the US economy recovers quickly, Trump still has a chance.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
Why do you think that would be the case in the UK and not the US? Personally I think they reopened golf courses too early.
twitter.com/cnni/status/1275754313780953088
The new positive case numbers doesn't seem to chime with this. Everywhere that has had big protests, except the already hard hit cities of NY and Washington, have seen big spikes.
Also..."The study comes as new data shows that more and more young people are testing positive for coronavirus, particularly in states that have opened back up."
Young people are the people who are at the protests, just saying like. And according to the academic study, everybody else has increased their social distancing due to avoiding protests....does not compute.
I doubt protests are the only reason, but 10,000s of people standing huddled together for hours on end, coughing and spluttering due to tear gas. I struggle to believe that isn't a vector of transmission.
It’s good to see you know more than the people who actually did the study. Have to say you read it very quickly - or did you just pick the quote from the article?
The paper doesn't argue against the premise that the protests likely spread COVID. It is arguing that people who didn't attend were more likely to be socially distanced. And thus the net was not a statistical increase.
"Likewise, while it is possible that the protests caused an increase in the spread of COVID-19 among those who attended the protests, we demonstrate that the protests had little effect on the spread of COVID19 for the entire population of the counties with protests during the more than three weeks following protest onset. "
However, young people spreading to one another, while not as likely to feel the effects, so they don't get tested as much as a proportion. Now, we are seeing increasing number of young people testing positive. There is a lag when it is spread among young people, this is how it kicked off in Northern Italy. It was rampant among the young population who commuted to Milan, but not that many noticed it, as they didn't feel that bad, but then we found they had given it to all their families, especially the oldies.
And the charts at the end of the paper that show instances of lots of protests seem to correlate very closely with what we are now seeing with the case spikes.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
Total benefits are about £260 billion which would pay for £500 a month with no tax increase You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel. How much is spent on unemployment benefit? Here's a surprise.
All of these benefits are directed to people who need it, UBI will end up in the hands of people like me, even at 40% tax it's a complete waste of money. The only way to make it work is to have it set at a much higher level otherwise it's reducing the budget for people who need it and giving it to people like me who really don't. I'd go on the record to The Times and other newspapers of record and open up my own income statements and show how futile giving money to people like me really is.
You'd have it taken off in a taper. I think UBI could be amazing for *essential workers*, to channel Joe Biden.
It's not universal then is it. The whole argument for UBI is that it has absolutely zero red tape and everyone gets it at the same level when they turn 18.
Comments
I guess it's where you end up when everything including the judiciary is party politicised. I agree that Trump will fight it out and expect to see corruption, voter fraud and suppression on a truly industrial scale and they won't even attempt to hide it. He's going to do his level best to steal this election and I am not convinced that he won't succeed.
BBC News - Coronavirus: UK must prepare for second virus wave - health leaders
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53159918
Good job they got rid of the daily oress conferences, otherwise we would be having to endure months of "what about the second wave", "is the outbreak in Bognor the start of the second wave", "should we lockdown in case of the second wave", "should we not lockdown in the case of a second wave", (i have my figures totally wrong), so it looks like a second wave...questions.
I learned recently of another very sad case, former Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell, aged 32. Sounded like it might have been suicide.
Horrible coincidence.
It is not competition with Labour but cooperation with Labour to take seats off the Tories and form a left of centre government which has the support of a majority of the country.
On the nominee front: just remembered I had a bet on Haley as the 2020 nominee. Excitingly, I forgot to note the odds, but made it in October 2018.
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-track-and-trace-app-boris-johnson/
The £55m is a five year figure. The claimed saving is £11m a year.
Your average tube driver is paid approx 75-80k a year, plus overheads and pensions etc make it near enough 110k.
So 100 tube drivers. There are approx. 4000 employed.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2018/12/16/no-london-underground-tube-drivers-are-not-earning-100000/
Never trust anything any media say in a summary on any subject whatsoever without factchecking it to death
"Leaving our current home would save £55 million over five years, which would help us to protect and invest in the things that matter most to Londoners, as well as supporting the regeneration of the Royal Docks."
Then the bullshit answers from last week. Bluster bluster we've cut child poverty. Erm the Children's Commissioner confirms you are lying. Raah bluster.
Top man. Mrs RP wants to stroke his hair "I bet it'd be really soft like a puppy". Ewww.
You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel.
How much is spent on unemployment benefit?
Here's a surprise.
He is not in Court and needs to find a way of a simple argument
No idea tube drivers got that much. I'm in the wrong career!
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1275748543723114497?s=20
https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1275518991390306305?s=20
I think it is a very effective "high/low" strategy. Leaves Trump reeling. Will he retire from the ring?
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The “self-quarantine safety protection” app, developed by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, allows those who have been quarantined to stay in touch with caseworkers. It also uses GPS to keep track of their location to make sure they are not breaking their quarantine, MIT Technology Review reports.
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The Corona 100m (Co100) app, was launched on February 11 and, using government data, alerts users when they come within 100 metres of a location visited by an infected person. It had a million downloads in its first ten days after launch, according to South Korean government website Korea.net, which said the app “allows users to conveniently avoid potentially dangerous locations without checking the travel histories of those infected”.
https://www.smartcitiesworld.net/news/news/south-korea-to-step-up-online-coronavirus-tracking-5109
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1275753017103585280?s=20
https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/53149036
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
What a jerk he is.
He hates to be challenged.
But I dispute the "union masters" perception. Starmer is simply positioning for a series of "I told you so"s if things go pear.
C'mon.
Protests and illegal raves....for the record I am kinda of joking.
The Huffington Post writer is either a moron or being deliberately misleading over this following passage though.
"The report also includes other data that have not been made public – most notably that the daily estimate of the number of daily new infections last Thursday stood at 7,000. This is in contrast to the figure of actual positive tests reported for the same day, which was 1,346."
The government scientists have said for ages that the rough rule of thumb is at least x5 the number of tests positives. This is totally consistent with this.
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1275754313780953088
Ultimately we need to decide what matters. Starmer is kind of suggesting that one death is one too many, but the reality is that eradication is not possible unless you're New Zealand, for example. Even the saintly Germans still have it.
Get rid of people who might challenge him from Cabinet and the backbenches? Tick.
Avoid the Andrew Neil interview during the election campaign? Tick.
It's also worth remembering that he didn't have that much experience as a Minister before becoming PM, so he hasn't spent that much time getting good at this answering questions lark.
Trouble is that, at the moment, answering questions on the spot in public is part of the job which he has craved for so long.
Also..."The study comes as new data shows that more and more young people are testing positive for coronavirus, particularly in states that have opened back up."
Young people are the people who are at the protests, just saying like.
And according to the academic study, everybody else has increased their social distancing due to avoiding protests....does not compute.
I doubt protests are the only reason, but 10,000s of people standing huddled together for hours on end, coughing and spluttering due to tear gas. I struggle to believe that isn't a vector of transmission.
However it is not them who are the key swing voters in this election but rustbelt white working class Democrats who swung behind Trump and gave him victory in key states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan Biden must win back to be elected
Several countries do have a functioning track and trace app. Maybe he just got his words wrong and meant functioning (app based) track and trace *system*. That's arguably true, depending how you define functioning.
The 65k figure is wrong as well.
Crack that and all methods of track and trace, app and no app become far more effective. It's a bit worrying that we don't get the number of people tested per day in the Gov't information. Indicates the whole system whilst having a good capacity for volume now isn't quite as organised as it should be.
I also find Davey's positioning as an "anti-Tory" quite bizarre. At the 2019 election at his insistence the Lib Dems had a fiscal policy that was well to the right of and more cautious than Boris. More like the sort of policies that Davey enthusiastically supported in the Coalition when George was Chancellor, in fact.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/791611216116363265
People are strange sometimes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-53056582
"Likewise, while it is possible that the protests caused an increase in the spread of COVID-19 among those who attended the protests, we demonstrate that the protests had little effect on the spread of COVID19 for the entire population of the counties with protests during the more than three weeks following protest onset. "
However, young people spreading to one another, while not as likely to feel the effects, so they don't get tested as much as a proportion. Now, we are seeing increasing number of young people testing positive. There is a lag when it is spread among young people, this is how it kicked off in Northern Italy. It was rampant among the young population who commuted to Milan, but not that many noticed it, as they didn't feel that bad, but then we found they had given it to all their families, especially the oldies.
And the charts at the end of the paper that show instances of lots of protests seem to correlate very closely with what we are now seeing with the case spikes.