I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Gosh. I spy somebody who still thinks Donald Trump is a "smart businessman" who is "not a politician" and thus "knows how to get things done"?
People are strange sometimes.
Gosh I spy a leftist that would never say a positive word about the 45th POTUS whatever he has done. What can't be taken away he smashed the Bush and Clinton cabals and presided over an economy where the key data was unstintingly positive, before CCP virus. Trump has obvious faults but all ORANGEMAN BAD, no not having it.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
He has been in post 2 months now and it is still not clear what Labour stands for under Starmer. Now perhaps COVID-19 has meant that it has been an inauspicious time to focus on relaunching Labour, but Starmer will need to start doing so by the Autumn or his opponents will look to define him instead. I think the Tory attack line will be that he flip flops (see Boris continually going on about schools)
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
I think you will find I was massively critical of lots of different groups actions, not just young people.
Golf and angling being banned was a hilarious overreach. Singles/same household golf should have been allowed right through the pandemic. And I've never seen non socially distanced angling. On the campsites they seem to have gone from zero to full communal without the obvious intermediate step of simply allowing people to their own statics (With full facilities including shower, cooking, washing up) contained within the static and not communal.
South Korea has a fully functioning app...just the west won't accept that level of monitoring.
AFAIK that's not a proximity contact tracing app. It's more of an alert app with location logging. It operates like a fitness app that records where you have been, and then the government alerts people who have come in close(ish) proximity (100 m resolution IIRC) to other infected people. With few cases that would work well, even though many people would be told to isolate who do not need to, but with many cases in the community you would be alerting absolutely huge numbers of people.
You can almost certainly do what the South Koreans are doing purely using mobile phone signalling data. No app required, and it works with any phone that is on. That seems to be what Israel has done.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
And this business of 'come behind us and support us' he's behaving like the turd that he is.
He hates to be challenged.
On one level, that's been known for a while.
Get rid of people who might challenge him from Cabinet and the backbenches? Tick.
Avoid the Andrew Neil interview during the election campaign? Tick.
It's also worth remembering that he didn't have that much experience as a Minister before becoming PM, so he hasn't spent that much time getting good at this answering questions lark.
Trouble is that, at the moment, answering questions on the spot in public is part of the job which he has craved for so long.
Gets rid of challengers and those who have displeased him? Avoids media scrutiny? Inexperienced?
but with many cases in the community you would be alerting absolutely huge numbers of people.
That's where we're at with our pandemic, fortunately decreasing day by day ! The 3 metre issue with the current app isn't a gamebreaker - Better to alert too many than too few.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
He has been in post 2 months now and it is still not clear what Labour stands for under Starmer. Now perhaps COVID-19 has meant that it has been an inauspicious time to focus on relaunching Labour, but Starmer will need to start doing so by the Autumn or his opponents will look to define him instead. I think the Tory attack line will be that he flip flops (see Boris continually going on about schools)
He has got about 4 years til an election that matters. Id imagine the first 2 years are more about convincing people he is not for Corbynism than defining what he is for. And rightly so.
The economy is utterly fucked thanks to the Rona. The previous benefits system wasn't fit for purpose. UC isn't fit for purpose. People either don't get enough money to survive or think "its unfair for these scroungers to get money I have to pay for where's mine". UBI resolves all of these issues...
If you go with UBI, you have to acknowledge that it is the only benefit. None of this oh well these parents aren't feeding their kids, so we need this extra benefit for free meals in summer hols etc.
My biggest fear with UBI, is this is exactly what will happen. We will get the Gordon Brown type, I have found another group who have special circumstances, so we need another benefit and that benefit is so poorly targeted.
It obviously depends on the level you set UBI at. If its £400 per month extra targeted benefits are still widely needed, if its £1500 per month it wouldnt need any extra benefits apart from for significant disabilities imo.
How on earth will the country pay for a £1500 per month UBI ?! Assuming 40 million adults that's £720 billion a year. That's just a smidgen below current spending for everything else on its own !
Total benefits are about £260 billion which would pay for £500 a month with no tax increase You could make it net neutral for someone on the average wage by increase increasing income tax rate to 40% as you suggest. This would enable an increase in UBI to £1,000 a month. One needs to model it and vary the parameters to get a real feel. How much is spent on unemployment benefit? Here's a surprise.
All of these benefits are directed to people who need it, UBI will end up in the hands of people like me, even at 40% tax it's a complete waste of money. The only way to make it work is to have it set at a much higher level otherwise it's reducing the budget for people who need it and giving it to people like me who really don't. I'd go on the record to The Times and other newspapers of record and open up my own income statements and show how futile giving money to people like me really is.
You'd have it taken off in a taper. I think UBI could be amazing for *essential workers*, to channel Joe Biden.
I think a far better policy would be to invest in getting Universal Credit right and the taper for that down from 65% to 40%.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
South Korea has a fully functioning app...just the west won't accept that level of monitoring.
AFAIK that's not a proximity contact tracing app. It's more of an alert app with location logging. It operates like a fitness app that records where you have been, and then the government alerts people who have come in close(ish) proximity (100 m resolution IIRC) to other infected people. With few cases that would work well, even though many people would be told to isolate who do not need to, but with many cases in the community you would be alerting absolutely huge numbers of people.
You can almost certainly do what the South Koreans are doing purely using mobile phone signalling data. No app required, and it works with any phone that is on. That seems to be what Israel has done.
I am well aware, I was kinda of arguing, it depends how you want to define fully functioning and app. Most people in the street don't see the difference for instance in apps that do all their processing in the cloud vs on the device.
I see this as a little bit the same, you can argue nobody has an on phone contract tracing app, but you could also argue countries do have fully functional contract tracing apps (it just happens to be that all the data collection is done in the cloud and the app is really just the window / alert system).
For the user in South Korea, they have an app, it provides contact tracing info and it works. It just doesn't work like all the ones in the West want to, where privacy has been decided to be absolutely crucial.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
I think you will find I was massively critical of lots of different groups actions, not just young people.
Golf and angling being banned was a hilarious overreach. Singles/same household golf should have been allowed right through the pandemic. And I've never seen non socially distanced angling. On the campsites they seem to have gone from zero to full communal without the obvious intermediate step of simply allowing people to their own statics (With full facilities including shower, cooking, washing up) contained within the static and not communal.
Yes, I don't think the camping decision is a good idea. All those indoor shared toilets / showers seem a terrible idea.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Agreed, the Republican establishment despise Trump and want him to lose but they wanted him to lose in 2016 too, hence you had the likes of Bush Snr voting for Hillary and Romney voting to impeach Trump and now Colin Powell and Cindy McCain and John Bolton saying they will vote for Biden or want Trump defeated.
However it is not them who are the key swing voters in this election but rustbelt white working class Democrats who swung behind Trump and gave him victory in key states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan Biden must win back to be elected
Whoever wins Florida will probably prevail. That maybe crucially is GOP governed, most of the other swing states are not and seem very keen on holding back the economic re-opening. A big problem for Trump possibly as he gave the shut down the green light. A choice he may regret now.
Florida and Pennsylvania are the key swing states this time yes
Maybe Trump could get some Guardian readers to ask people in these states to vote Biden. Might swing it for him.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
He has been in post 2 months now and it is still not clear what Labour stands for under Starmer. Now perhaps COVID-19 has meant that it has been an inauspicious time to focus on relaunching Labour, but Starmer will need to start doing so by the Autumn or his opponents will look to define him instead. I think the Tory attack line will be that he flip flops (see Boris continually going on about schools)
I agree, but it has its own risks for the Conservatives, given how many U-turns Boris has made.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
He has been in post 2 months now and it is still not clear what Labour stands for under Starmer. Now perhaps COVID-19 has meant that it has been an inauspicious time to focus on relaunching Labour, but Starmer will need to start doing so by the Autumn or his opponents will look to define him instead. I think the Tory attack line will be that he flip flops (see Boris continually going on about schools)
Starmer stands for honesty, decency and competence, where Johnson is none of those things. Remarkably, Johnson is attacking Starmer strongly on that man's truthfulness. Which seems mad, but everything Johnson does in this context is focus-grouped.
PS I doubt the "flip flop" line will work. Starmer doesn't look like a flip-flopper. I don't think the schools line worked this week as Starmer had an answer.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
You go wrong from the get-go in the 1st para. Trump voters in 2016 did not know what they were getting. They had not seen him in office. Amongst their number was a sizeable proportion who voted for him reluctantly with an attitude of "OK, don't really love the guy, but it'll be something different, he might be good in the job, and I don't want Hillary, so let's give him a shot." It was an experiment. A punt.
They have now had an eyeful of the reality over the last 4 years and a sizeable proportion of that sizeable proportion, be they Republicans or otherwise, are thinking, "Nope. Jerk. Clueless. Not again." This is what is driving the polls right now and it is what will drive the result. Given the 2016 start point of a freakish EC win from a PV deficit it spells landslide defeat this time. Any other outcome is vanishingly unlikely unless voter suppression reaches ridiculous levels and I have enough faith in the US electoral process to more or less discount that.
WH2020 is a silent majority election. And the silent majority have had enough of Donald Trump.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
I think you will find I was massively critical of lots of different groups actions, not just young people.
Golf and angling being banned was a hilarious overreach. Singles/same household golf should have been allowed right through the pandemic. And I've never seen non socially distanced angling. On the campsites they seem to have gone from zero to full communal without the obvious intermediate step of simply allowing people to their own statics (With full facilities including shower, cooking, washing up) contained within the static and not communal.
Yes, I don't think the camping decision is a good idea. All those indoor shared toilets / showers seem a terrible idea.
Sure. Unlockdown seems and has seemed too fast in some areas and too slow in others.
That said I think the guidance on 1 metre/2 metre was very good. It allows restaurants to arrange a seating plan - 1 metre side side, front back chairs 1 metre apart with the 'ultimately facing' chairs 2 metres apart seperated by 2 tables and 2 chairs.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
You go wrong from the get-go in the 1st para. Trump voters in 2016 did not know what they were getting. They had not seen him in office. Amongst their number was a sizeable proportion who voted for him reluctantly with an attitude of "OK, don't really love the guy, but it'll be something different, he might be good in the job, and I don't want Hillary, so let's give him a shot." It was an experiment. A punt.
They have now had an eyeful of the reality over the last 4 years and a sizeable proportion of that sizeable proportion, be they Republicans or otherwise, are thinking, "Nope. Jerk. Not again." This is what is driving the polls right now and it is what will drive the result. Given the 2016 start point of a freakish EC win from a PV deficit it spells landslide defeat this time. Any other outcome is vanishingly unlikely unless voter suppression reaches ridiculous levels and I have enough faith in the US electoral process to more or less discount that.
WH2020 is a silent majority election. And the silent majority have had enough of Donald Trump.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
Ah I was wondering where golf came from!
Hmmm.
That would surely be because of the two, golf is the mass, repeated activity (a million players?), and the virus is far enough suppressed than 100k-200k or so one off person-attendances (involving a lot of duplication) at a set of demonstrations is not significant enough to register in the overall scheme of things even given lack of social distance in some cases.
yet the actual article is about loss of revenue from oil workers who have found alternative accommodation nearer the gas fields.
+1 - that hotel closure has nothing to do with Covid 19 - heck it's probably full at the moment and will remain so until the new facilities open in August.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
He has been in post 2 months now and it is still not clear what Labour stands for under Starmer. Now perhaps COVID-19 has meant that it has been an inauspicious time to focus on relaunching Labour, but Starmer will need to start doing so by the Autumn or his opponents will look to define him instead. I think the Tory attack line will be that he flip flops (see Boris continually going on about schools)
Starmer stands for honesty, decency and competence, where Johnson is none of those things. Remarkably, Johnson is attacking Starmer strongly on that man's truthfulness. Which seems mad, but everything Johnson does in this context is focus-grouped.
PS I doubt the "flip flop" line will work. Starmer doesn't look like a flip-flopper. I don't think the schools line worked this week as Starmer had an answer.
I think this is a classic "he said she said" defence - if you attack your opponent on the same grounds as they are attacking you, it neutralises it in a "well they're both as bad as each other" kind of way, for the casual observer. Particularly if Boris being economical with the truth is already priced in to his brand.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
The 2016 election was the most I ever won betting on politics. You could get Trump at 6/1 on the day and states like Michigan for Trump at 18/1. Obviously that won't happen this time but I'm tempted by Trump in Virginia at 9/2.. Minnesota is another one.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
I backed Trump to win at 4/1 in 2016. I would need much much higher to back him this time. He is toast. Will not be close. I have never in my life been more certain of a political outcome. Not even my call of a "Boris" landslide in our GE and I was close to certain about that.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
I think you will find I was massively critical of lots of different groups actions, not just young people.
Golf and angling being banned was a hilarious overreach. Singles/same household golf should have been allowed right through the pandemic. And I've never seen non socially distanced angling. On the campsites they seem to have gone from zero to full communal without the obvious intermediate step of simply allowing people to their own statics (With full facilities including shower, cooking, washing up) contained within the static and not communal.
Yes, I don't think the camping decision is a good idea. All those indoor shared toilets / showers seem a terrible idea.
Sure. Unlockdown seems and has seemed too fast in some areas and too slow in others.
That said I think the guidance on 1 metre/2 metre was very good. It allows restaurants to arrange a seating plan - 1 metre side side, front back chairs 1 metre apart with the 'ultimately facing' chairs 2 metres apart seperated by 2 tables and 2 chairs.
The whole 2m thing was "gold plating" really. It was taken from what was thought about normal cold / flu type transmission and I think some behavioural science that if you say 2m and people bend the rules and get a bit closer than they are more than likely still spend most of their time > 1m.
One of the best bits of plague reporting I've read. An academic but highly accessible account of how the media covered the 1889-90 flu pandemic, with much to recognise.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
Ah I was wondering where golf came from!
Hmmm.
That would surely be because of the two, golf is the mass, repeated activity (a million players?), and the virus is far enough suppressed than 100k-200k or so one off person-attendances (involving a lot of duplication) at a set of demonstrations is not significant enough to register in the overall scheme of things even given lack of social distance in some cases.
And because a lot of the BLM demos were actually very responsible in their behaviour.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
Isnt the answer simply Biden instead of Clinton? 2016 was the two most hated candidates in history against each other. I dont sense much hatred of Biden at all.
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
He has been in post 2 months now and it is still not clear what Labour stands for under Starmer. Now perhaps COVID-19 has meant that it has been an inauspicious time to focus on relaunching Labour, but Starmer will need to start doing so by the Autumn or his opponents will look to define him instead. I think the Tory attack line will be that he flip flops (see Boris continually going on about schools)
Starmer stands for honesty, decency and competence, where Johnson is none of those things. Remarkably, Johnson is attacking Starmer strongly on that man's truthfulness. Which seems mad, but everything Johnson does in this context is focus-grouped.
PS I doubt the "flip flop" line will work. Starmer doesn't look like a flip-flopper. I don't think the schools line worked this week as Starmer had an answer.
I think this is a classic "he said she said" defence - if you attack your opponent on the same grounds as they are attacking you, it neutralises it in a "well they're both as bad as each other" kind of way, for the casual observer. Particularly if Boris being economical with the truth is already priced in to his brand.
Boris is a liar. Sacked for it twice. And so what. People don't like facts they like what they think. Even if Starmer catches Boris out in a brazen lie that absolutely shows he's making it up and doesn't have a grasp on the facts, Johnson has the ultimate get out card - the virus.
"The Rt Hon and Learned Gentleman needs to cut me a little slack. Its all very well trying to lure me into traps and to show errors, but I am both running the country raising a new baby and recovering from this virus. Back off" would get a lot of sympathy because its utterly human.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
The 2016 election was the most I ever won betting on politics. You could get Trump at 6/1 on the day and states like Michigan for Trump at 18/1. Obviously that won't happen this time but I'm tempted by Trump in Virginia at 9/2.. Minnesota is another one.
What makes you tempted on Virginia for him? He lost it in 2016 and since then the Democrats have flipped the legislature from the GOP, it's also highly educated. I'd expect Rhode Island to go Trump before Virginia does
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
Disagree. He needs to simplify his narrative, but he knows where it is going. Boris very blustery and is going to get the arse factchecked off him again. Speaker reprimand not good either.
And this is a pretty good line, in a "it's funny 'cause it's true" way:
Starmer rambling somewhat. He won't enthuse the election at GE2024
He's not incompetent just uninspriring. He will excite the electorate no more than Red Ed.
You are very likely right, but his more important job is to simply make Labour credible again to give his successor a good chance. If Labour form the govt in 2024 it will be because the Tories lost rather than Starmer winning through exciting the country.
He has been in post 2 months now and it is still not clear what Labour stands for under Starmer. Now perhaps COVID-19 has meant that it has been an inauspicious time to focus on relaunching Labour, but Starmer will need to start doing so by the Autumn or his opponents will look to define him instead. I think the Tory attack line will be that he flip flops (see Boris continually going on about schools)
Starmer stands for honesty, decency and competence, where Johnson is none of those things. Remarkably, Johnson is attacking Starmer strongly on that man's truthfulness. Which seems mad, but everything Johnson does in this context is focus-grouped.
PS I doubt the "flip flop" line will work. Starmer doesn't look like a flip-flopper. I don't think the schools line worked this week as Starmer had an answer.
I think this is a classic "he said she said" defence - if you attack your opponent on the same grounds as they are attacking you, it neutralises it in a "well they're both as bad as each other" kind of way, for the casual observer. Particularly if Boris being economical with the truth is already priced in to his brand.
Boris is a liar. Sacked for it twice. And so what. People don't like facts they like what they think. Even if Starmer catches Boris out in a brazen lie that absolutely shows he's making it up and doesn't have a grasp on the facts, Johnson has the ultimate get out card - the virus.
"The Rt Hon and Learned Gentleman needs to cut me a little slack. Its all very well trying to lure me into traps and to show errors, but I am both running the country raising a new baby and recovering from this virus. Back off" would get a lot of sympathy because its utterly human.
But it invites an obvious riposte:
'If he feels he cannot juggle those three challenges, should he not alleviate the situation by standing down as Prime Minister?'
One of the best bits of plague reporting I've read. An academic but highly accessible account of how the media covered the 1889-90 flu pandemic, with much to recognise.
The reason I hunted it out is a Wikipedia reference to research that places the jump of the common Coronavirus, OC43, to around the 1890 mark, and the speculation (and it is only a speculation) that this could be a candidate for the 1890 pandemic. It has to be noted that very good flu candidates with more in the way of evidence base are available.
Why do you think that would be the case in the UK and not the US? Personally I think they reopened golf courses too early.
twitter.com/cnni/status/1275754313780953088
The new positive case numbers doesn't seem to chime with this. Everywhere that has had big protests, except the already hard hit cities of NY and Washington, have seen big spikes.
Citation needed.
George Floyd was murdered on the 25th of May. I hear there was a bit of a protest in Minneapolis about this. Here is Minnesota's Covid deaths, hospitalisations and cases from the 25th onwards.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Gosh. I spy somebody who still thinks Donald Trump is a "smart businessman" who is "not a politician" and thus "knows how to get things done"?
People are strange sometimes.
Gosh I spy a leftist that would never say a positive word about the 45th POTUS whatever he has done. What can't be taken away he smashed the Bush and Clinton cabals and presided over an economy where the key data was unstintingly positive, before CCP virus. Trump has obvious faults but all ORANGEMAN BAD, no not having it.
Why do you think that would be the case in the UK and not the US? Personally I think they reopened golf courses too early.
twitter.com/cnni/status/1275754313780953088
The new positive case numbers doesn't seem to chime with this. Everywhere that has had big protests, except the already hard hit cities of NY and Washington, have seen big spikes.
Citation needed.
George Floyd was murdered on the 25th of May. I hear there was a bit of a protest in Minneapolis about this. Here is Minnesota's Covid deaths, hospitalisations and from the 25th onwards.
Can you point out the big spike?
I should have said LIKE NY and Washington. The report quoted shows at the end all the places that have had continued large protests and you can overlay it will the rate of increase. Go look at p40 onwards...all those protests across the the west coast and the south, which is exactly where we are seeing spikes.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
You go wrong from the get-go in the 1st para. Trump voters in 2016 did not know what they were getting. They had not seen him in office. Amongst their number was a sizeable proportion who voted for him reluctantly with an attitude of "OK, don't really love the guy, but it'll be something different, he might be good in the job, and I don't want Hillary, so let's give him a shot." It was an experiment. A punt.
They have now had an eyeful of the reality over the last 4 years and a sizeable proportion of that sizeable proportion, be they Republicans or otherwise, are thinking, "Nope. Jerk. Not again." This is what is driving the polls right now and it is what will drive the result. Given the 2016 start point of a freakish EC win from a PV deficit it spells landslide defeat this time. Any other outcome is vanishingly unlikely unless voter suppression reaches ridiculous levels and I have enough faith in the US electoral process to more or less discount that.
WH2020 is a silent majority election. And the silent majority have had enough of Donald Trump.
Take this to the bank.
Certainly Trump's net (dis)approval ratings, which were already poor, are now worse than they have been at any time since January 2019. They roughly mirror those of Carter and GHW Bush five months before the elections they lost. They're well behind those of any president who won re-election.
Anyone who predicts that Trump will win at this point is a fool. That doesn't mean that there are no value bets to be had at long odds, but value bets are a very different thing to believing that something is more likely than not to happen.
How can golf possibly affect the pandemic trajectory more than a mass protest ?!
I don’t know. Perhaps it doesn’t. But the overwhelming theme on this board, particularly posts by Mr Urquhart, is that absolutely anything young people do has to be intrinsically dodgy by definition. So it should be banned. Nice people who play golf, have street parties on VE Day etc could NEVER be accountable for such bad things.
Ah I was wondering where golf came from!
Hmmm.
That would surely be because of the two, golf is the mass, repeated activity (a million players?), and the virus is far enough suppressed than 100k-200k or so one off person-attendances (involving a lot of duplication) at a set of demonstrations is not significant enough to register in the overall scheme of things even given lack of social distance in some cases.
And because a lot of the BLM demos were actually very responsible in their behaviour.
(Credit: Lincolnite)
I'll never understand the mask round the chinners. Wear one or don't, but round the chin ?!
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
I cannot see that. A minority Government would not make him Deputy PM.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
I cannot see that. A minority Government would not make him Deputy PM.
It likely would, with Starmer taking the Cameron role and Davey the Clegg role in a reverse of 2010. The LDs would be kingmakers in such a hung parliament and would want it as the price of their support
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Gosh. I spy somebody who still thinks Donald Trump is a "smart businessman" who is "not a politician" and thus "knows how to get things done"?
People are strange sometimes.
Gosh I spy a leftist that would never say a positive word about the 45th POTUS whatever he has done. What can't be taken away he smashed the Bush and Clinton cabals and presided over an economy where the key data was unstintingly positive, before CCP virus. Trump has obvious faults but all ORANGEMAN BAD, no not having it.
Trump, just like Berlusconi, is very much a real politician, and of the worst kind.
Berlusconi at least has better claims to being a smart businessman, if you think doing deals with the mafia is smart. Trump is not even a good business person, he only has enough cunning, and the right connections, to get other people to pay for his repeated failures. It's certainly not the kind of business smarts you would want in someone in charge of any large organisation or anything that is socially useful. Trashing the environment and massively increasing debt so that billionaires can make even more of a fast buck is terrible economic management.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
I cannot see that. A minority Government would not make him Deputy PM.
It likely would, with Starmer taking the Cameron role and Davey the Clegg role in a reverse of 2010. The LDs would be kingmakers in such a hung parliament and would want it as the price of their support
I think Justin's point is that would be a coalition, not a minority government - and that Labour members would be resistant to it.
Would anyone still think we should be tearing down statues on the say so of these people if it is? Recent targets strongly suggest they are Maoists bent on ruthless destruction and vandalism for its own sake rather than reasonable people making a point.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Agreed, the Republican establishment despise Trump and want him to lose but they wanted him to lose in 2016 too, hence you had the likes of Bush Snr voting for Hillary and Romney voting to impeach Trump and now Colin Powell and Cindy McCain and John Bolton saying they will vote for Biden or want Trump defeated.
However it is not them who are the key swing voters in this election but rustbelt white working class Democrats who swung behind Trump and gave him victory in key states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan Biden must win back to be elected
Whoever wins Florida will probably prevail. That maybe crucially is GOP governed, most of the other swing states are not and seem very keen on holding back the economic re-opening. A big problem for Trump possibly as he gave the shut down the green light. A choice he may regret now.
FLorida is a big enough EC swing that trump cannot win if he loses FL on a practical level. If he loses FL the Dems will almost certainly be picking up the extra 9 EC votes eslewhere needed to win the presidency. Biden though can still win even if FL stays with Trump.
Would anyone still think we should be tearing down statues on the say so of these people if it is? Recent targets strongly suggest they are Maoists bent on ruthless destruction and vandalism for its own sake rather than reasonable people making a point.
Its as if they have a wider political agenda than protesting racial injustice.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Gosh. I spy somebody who still thinks Donald Trump is a "smart businessman" who is "not a politician" and thus "knows how to get things done"?
People are strange sometimes.
Gosh I spy a leftist that would never say a positive word about the 45th POTUS whatever he has done. What can't be taken away he smashed the Bush and Clinton cabals and presided over an economy where the key data was unstintingly positive, before CCP virus. Trump has obvious faults but all ORANGEMAN BAD, no not having it.
Rubbish no better than Obama. The US Economy was tepid at best through Obama, yes he set conditions that encouraged buying jobs and so bigger state but wages were flat, Median income went up hugely under Trump, as did overall employment.
I am an anti-Conservative politician, and that’s how I would lead our party. We are a million miles from the Tories. While we promote international co-operation and human rights abroad, they pull up the drawbridge. While we want world-leading plans for a Green Revolution, their climate plans are timid at best. While we would root out poverty and inequality, the Conservatives have no commitment to social justice and have failed to take any action in response to the Black Lives Matter protests.
At least that's kind of better - but I think it's the wrong direction to be going in.
By implication he's saying he'd support Labour.
And with that go Lib Dem hopes of turning the South West yellow...
Would anyone still think we should be tearing down statues on the say so of these people if it is? Recent targets strongly suggest they are Maoists bent on ruthless destruction and vandalism for its own sake rather than reasonable people making a point.
Its as if they have a wider political agenda than protesting racial injustice.
On the contrary - it is as though their agenda is *not* about protesting racial injustice.
Would anyone still think we should be tearing down statues on the say so of these people if it is? Recent targets strongly suggest they are Maoists bent on ruthless destruction and vandalism for its own sake rather than reasonable people making a point.
Its as if they have a wider political agenda than protesting racial injustice.
On the contrary - it is as though their agenda is *not* about protesting racial injustice.
Next you will be telling me that these anti-fascists groups like ANTIFA, perhaps aren't primarily motivated by being against fascists are you...I'm shocked I tell you....
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
I cannot see that. A minority Government would not make him Deputy PM.
It likely would, with Starmer taking the Cameron role and Davey the Clegg role in a reverse of 2010. The LDs would be kingmakers in such a hung parliament and would want it as the price of their support
I think Justin's point is that would be a coalition, not a minority government - and that Labour members would be resistant to it.
Many Tory members and the Tory right were resistant to the 2010 coalition too, the numbers meant it happened anyway
Mr. Doethur, it's almost as if they're a cult of far left fools, indulged by moderates (including the Leader of the Opposition) who should know better.
Would anyone still think we should be tearing down statues on the say so of these people if it is? Recent targets strongly suggest they are Maoists bent on ruthless destruction and vandalism for its own sake rather than reasonable people making a point.
Its as if they have a wider political agenda than protesting racial injustice.
On the contrary - it is as though their agenda is *not* about protesting racial injustice.
Next you will be telling me that these anti-fascists groups like ANTIFA, perhaps aren't primarily motivated by being against fascists are you...I'm shocked I tell you....
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
You go wrong from the get-go in the 1st para. Trump voters in 2016 did not know what they were getting. They had not seen him in office. Amongst their number was a sizeable proportion who voted for him reluctantly with an attitude of "OK, don't really love the guy, but it'll be something different, he might be good in the job, and I don't want Hillary, so let's give him a shot." It was an experiment. A punt.
They have now had an eyeful of the reality over the last 4 years and a sizeable proportion of that sizeable proportion, be they Republicans or otherwise, are thinking, "Nope. Jerk. Not again." This is what is driving the polls right now and it is what will drive the result. Given the 2016 start point of a freakish EC win from a PV deficit it spells landslide defeat this time. Any other outcome is vanishingly unlikely unless voter suppression reaches ridiculous levels and I have enough faith in the US electoral process to more or less discount that.
WH2020 is a silent majority election. And the silent majority have had enough of Donald Trump.
Take this to the bank.
Certainly Trump's net (dis)approval ratings, which were already poor, are now worse than they have been at any time since January 2019. They roughly mirror those of Carter and GHW Bush five months before the elections they lost. They're well behind those of any president who won re-election.
Anyone who predicts that Trump will win at this point is a fool. That doesn't mean that there are no value bets to be had at long odds, but value bets are a very different thing to believing that something is more likely than not to happen.
When Bannon took over in August 2016. Trump was up to 14 points behind and won handily. Two points you miss, never under-estimate the big man and Biden is no Reagan or Clinton. Oh and there may be a slight suspicion the polls are a teensy bit biased. Yougov and Ipsos forget it, been wrong too often both sides of the pond. Some of the less moneyed polls are much closer, seek and you may find.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
You go wrong from the get-go in the 1st para. Trump voters in 2016 did not know what they were getting. They had not seen him in office. Amongst their number was a sizeable proportion who voted for him reluctantly with an attitude of "OK, don't really love the guy, but it'll be something different, he might be good in the job, and I don't want Hillary, so let's give him a shot." It was an experiment. A punt.
They have now had an eyeful of the reality over the last 4 years and a sizeable proportion of that sizeable proportion, be they Republicans or otherwise, are thinking, "Nope. Jerk. Not again." This is what is driving the polls right now and it is what will drive the result. Given the 2016 start point of a freakish EC win from a PV deficit it spells landslide defeat this time. Any other outcome is vanishingly unlikely unless voter suppression reaches ridiculous levels and I have enough faith in the US electoral process to more or less discount that.
WH2020 is a silent majority election. And the silent majority have had enough of Donald Trump.
Take this to the bank.
Certainly Trump's net (dis)approval ratings, which were already poor, are now worse than they have been at any time since January 2019. They roughly mirror those of Carter and GHW Bush five months before the elections they lost. They're well behind those of any president who won re-election.
Anyone who predicts that Trump will win at this point is a fool. That doesn't mean that there are no value bets to be had at long odds, but value bets are a very different thing to believing that something is more likely than not to happen.
When Bannon took over in August 2016. Trump was up to 14 points behind and won handily. Two points you miss, never under-estimate the big man and Biden is no Reagan or Clinton. Oh and there may be a slight suspicion the polls are a teensy bit biased. Yougov and Ipsos forget it, been wrong too often both sides of the pond. Some of the less moneyed polls are much closer, seek and you may find.
There are also a disproportionate number of 'don't knows' or 'undecideds' who say they think Trump will win but will not tell pollsters they will be voting for him, I still think it will be close
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
Isnt the answer simply Biden instead of Clinton? 2016 was the two most hated candidates in history against each other. I dont sense much hatred of Biden at all.
No more pity. Biden is a globalist though from Wilmington, Delaware the globalist postbox. He is going to get field stripped, when the time comes.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Gosh. I spy somebody who still thinks Donald Trump is a "smart businessman" who is "not a politician" and thus "knows how to get things done"?
People are strange sometimes.
Gosh I spy a leftist that would never say a positive word about the 45th POTUS whatever he has done. What can't be taken away he smashed the Bush and Clinton cabals and presided over an economy where the key data was unstintingly positive, before CCP virus. Trump has obvious faults but all ORANGEMAN BAD, no not having it.
You sound like a cliche. Shape up.
The US budget position pre-Covid was "unstintingly positive", was it?
His 2016 win, capturing the Republican Party, getting elected as POTUS - this was a truly stunning achievement. He is charismatic, ruthless, and possessed of street smarts and a low cunning. He has a genuine gift for pressing the buttons of supporters and opponents alike, and for communicating base sentiments to basic people in ostensibly basic but actually quite effective language. He can read people and has an instinct for their weaknesses. He is, all in all, a formidable operator. Or has been anyway.
Ok. Now the other side of the ledger -
He is a pathological liar and narcissist, a misogynist, a dog-whistling racist, a person driven exclusively by his own personal interest and gratification, a person of shallow intellect and mean spirit and low character, a malevolent troll of zero attention span beyond that required to send a tweet, and - the biggie - he is STAGGERINGLY inept and out of his depth in the job.
Unfit for office, in other words, which enough people can now see. Of course there are still plenty of people dumb enough to still think he's a supersmart cookie who knows what he's doing - you are evidence of that - but not nearly enough this time.
No the Lincoln project is very much the old Bush GOP, hugely rejected by the Republican support, still overwhelmingly behind Trump. Most of the US death figures have been in Democrat run states, overwhelmingly so. Blaming Trump on this is not by any means the whole picture. Where I would agree is while I expect Trump may pull through, very good bet he could lose the Senate.
Agreed, the Republican establishment despise Trump and want him to lose but they wanted him to lose in 2016 too, hence you had the likes of Bush Snr voting for Hillary and Romney voting to impeach Trump and now Colin Powell and Cindy McCain and John Bolton saying they will vote for Biden or want Trump defeated.
However it is not them who are the key swing voters in this election but rustbelt white working class Democrats who swung behind Trump and gave him victory in key states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan Biden must win back to be elected
Whoever wins Florida will probably prevail. That maybe crucially is GOP governed, most of the other swing states are not and seem very keen on holding back the economic re-opening. A big problem for Trump possibly as he gave the shut down the green light. A choice he may regret now.
FLorida is a big enough EC swing that trump cannot win if he loses FL on a practical level. If he loses FL the Dems will almost certainly be picking up the extra 9 EC votes eslewhere needed to win the presidency. Biden though can still win even if FL stays with Trump.
Remember what I said on Sunday - State voters love to vote for a candidate from their home state and Val Demings would probably give Biden Florida.
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
The 2016 election was the most I ever won betting on politics. You could get Trump at 6/1 on the day and states like Michigan for Trump at 18/1. Obviously that won't happen this time but I'm tempted by Trump in Virginia at 9/2.. Minnesota is another one.
Too much DC overflow in Virginia, Minnesota much more likely.
A new paper written by academics Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath has revealed that the Conservatives “are now more popular with people on low incomes than high incomes.”
In December’s election the Conservatives established a 15-point lead over Labour among people on low incomes, the first time in history the Tories have outpolled the Labour Party in this demographic. The Tories held a 9-point lead among those on high incomes, this lead grew to 15-points among low income voters making them the true people’s party…
I can see the whole woke thing becoming a dividing line like Brexit. BUT, I think Tories polling reliance on working class votes is very dangerous for them. We are going into very bad economic times, the working class are normally hardest hit by downturns (and I think we will see increasing automation). And of course all us middle class types can WFH, where as most working class jobs require you to continue to go out every day and risk the Covid.
That seems unnecessary. She is more than capable of leading mot following when she wants.
Indeed. Such knee-jerk comments - SNP BAAAAAD! - are not only tedious to read but obscure the very serious questions devolution poses for the London administration (and vice versa): that things are being done differently, and in some cases better, elsewhere. Not just in Germany ...
On which theme, Tabby is now showing weekly data for the Scottish Test and Protect (track and trace) service - about a quarter of the way down the webpage. Latest complete week's data shows contact tracing completed to date for 90% of cases that week.
One thing is clear from today's PMQs and yesterday's unlockdown briefing, Johnson is no longer serious. The Churchill of Our Day shtick is over.
Raises his voice level, starts speaking a little more quickly and goes into a preprepared non sequitur whilst looking round for "here here"s from the backbenches. Same tactic every question.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
Trump lost in 2016 by 3 million votes but was very fortunate in the way the EC votes fell. What I ask myself is who is going to vote for Trump now who didn't in 2016? I can't see there being many whereas there is plenty of evidence emerging of people who voted for him in 2016 who will either vote Biden or abstain this time.
Out of interest why would someone who voted for a Libertarian in 2016 not do so again in 2020? I also understand that the Green Party or not going to be on the ballot in a lot of critical states this year.
Whist I still think this could go either way because there are 5 months to go to be honest your comments seem to me to be more a wish list of what hope might happen rather than an analysis of what is happening. The idea that people knew what Trump was like in 2016 and still voted for him was similar to the argument we heard about why Corbyn was going to come through in 2019 as he did 2 years earlier.
A new paper written by academics Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath has revealed that the Conservatives “are now more popular with people on low incomes than high incomes.”
In December’s election the Conservatives established a 15-point lead over Labour among people on low incomes, the first time in history the Tories have outpolled the Labour Party in this demographic. The Tories held a 9-point lead among those on high incomes, this lead grew to 15-points among low income voters making them the true people’s party…
I can see the whole woke thing becoming a dividing line like Brexit. BUT, I think Tories polling reliance on working class votes is very dangerous for them. We are going into very bad economic times, the working class are normally hardest hit by downturns (and I think we will see increasing automation). And of course all us middle class types can WFH, where as most working class jobs require you to continue to go out every day and risk the Covid.
The Tories still won higher income voters, they just lost a few to the LDs.
Culturally though post Brexit the white working class has swung to the Tories and Boris and that is little to do with economics
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
I cannot see that. A minority Government would not make him Deputy PM.
It likely would, with Starmer taking the Cameron role and Davey the Clegg role in a reverse of 2010. The LDs would be kingmakers in such a hung parliament and would want it as the price of their support
That would imply a coalition - rather than a minority Government. Unlikely Starmer would go for that.
Trump's going to get hammered. Take it to the bank.
I keep doing this but needing loads more words. The beauty of concision.
And you are warmly welcomed to TrumpToast club.
Do you want the tee shirt or the toast rack?
I want the hundred pounds in fresh notes from one of my best friends who has bet against me (+ lots more from the bookies)
There are several things which could probably indicate a quick Biden victory on election night. Indiana is staying red but if it's not instacalled for Trump (At the same time as Kentucky) he's likely in trouble. Quick projection for Biden in Michigan would obviously be another.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
You go wrong from the get-go in the 1st para. Trump voters in 2016 did not know what they were getting. They had not seen him in office. Amongst their number was a sizeable proportion who voted for him reluctantly with an attitude of "OK, don't really love the guy, but it'll be something different, he might be good in the job, and I don't want Hillary, so let's give him a shot." It was an experiment. A punt.
They have now had an eyeful of the reality over the last 4 years and a sizeable proportion of that sizeable proportion, be they Republicans or otherwise, are thinking, "Nope. Jerk. Not again." This is what is driving the polls right now and it is what will drive the result. Given the 2016 start point of a freakish EC win from a PV deficit it spells landslide defeat this time. Any other outcome is vanishingly unlikely unless voter suppression reaches ridiculous levels and I have enough faith in the US electoral process to more or less discount that.
WH2020 is a silent majority election. And the silent majority have had enough of Donald Trump.
Take this to the bank.
Certainly Trump's net (dis)approval ratings, which were already poor, are now worse than they have been at any time since January 2019. They roughly mirror those of Carter and GHW Bush five months before the elections they lost. They're well behind those of any president who won re-election.
Anyone who predicts that Trump will win at this point is a fool. That doesn't mean that there are no value bets to be had at long odds, but value bets are a very different thing to believing that something is more likely than not to happen.
Oh yes. As a bettor I'd back Trump if the odds were big enough. 8/1 might tempt me.
One thing is clear from today's PMQs and yesterday's unlockdown briefing, Johnson is no longer serious. The Churchill of Our Day shtick is over.
There was a point when he was serious?
From the announcement of lockdown to when he fell ill, yes. Johnson clearly saw himself as Churchill standing alone against the virus, but it would be beaten. Now he doesn't care whether it gets beaten or not. He wants to change the topic.
A new paper written by academics Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath has revealed that the Conservatives “are now more popular with people on low incomes than high incomes.”
In December’s election the Conservatives established a 15-point lead over Labour among people on low incomes, the first time in history the Tories have outpolled the Labour Party in this demographic. The Tories held a 9-point lead among those on high incomes, this lead grew to 15-points among low income voters making them the true people’s party…
I can see the whole woke thing becoming a dividing line like Brexit. BUT, I think Tories polling reliance on working class votes is very dangerous for them. We are going into very bad economic times, the working class are normally hardest hit by downturns (and I think we will see increasing automation). And of course all us middle class types can WFH, where as most working class jobs require you to continue to go out every day and risk the Covid.
BiB - alternatively, working class people are more likely to be doing jobs that actually matter. Plenty of middle class jobs are dispensable.
"I have spent my life fighting Tories." Apart from 5 years governing with them.
Lib Dems have a problem here. All their MPs in England have Tories as challengers so they want to fight them. There are hardly any Labour targets. However, the political space is for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party. That is totally empty right now.
Davey is just setting himself up to be Starmer's Deputy PM if there is a hung parliament in 2024.
The last fiscally conservative, socially liberal LD leader was Nick Clegg.
Enough said
I cannot see that. A minority Government would not make him Deputy PM.
It likely would, with Starmer taking the Cameron role and Davey the Clegg role in a reverse of 2010. The LDs would be kingmakers in such a hung parliament and would want it as the price of their support
That would imply a coalition - rather than a minority Government. Unlikely Starmer would go for that.
Given the only non coalition minority governments since WW2 in 1974 and 2017 lasted no more than a few months to 2 years he likely would.
Plus a LD coalition would enable him to isolate the Corbynite left as such a coalition enabled Cameron to isolate the Cornerstone right from 2010 to 2015
If we discount the views of everyone who called the 2016 election wrong then we will be left with very few commentators to discuss, and those that are left largely from the ranks of the Republican Party.
The late Plato did and what did she get on this board for her efforts?
The campaign has hardly started and we are all calling it for Joe Biden. Probably channeling our desires.
In the UK we think we have good coverage of US news. We don't. It is all filtered through the political lens of our correspondents. So we all thought Stormy/Avenatti (remember them?) were going to bring down Trump.
Mueller got called out months beforehand in the US but we were not told that.
Biden has not faced journalists for 90 odd days, and we think that is normal.
Biden is not a great candidate, there is a reason his previous runs for the presidency bombed. He's been around for nearly 50 years. He plagiarized the great Kinnock in his 1988 run.
Biden looks like he has dementia. His face mask flapping off his ear a few weeks ago had echoes of Dukakis and the tank. He seems to have a knack for inappropriately touching women and girls of all ages. His treatment of Anita Hill was memorable. Trump and his acolytes will be merciless in exploiting all this.
No one has heard of John Durham in the UK. Barr was on record this weekend as saying there WAS a plot to bring down Trump.
There is a long way to go. Typically the campaign does not start till Labor (sic) Day Sept 7th (a bit late this year) or the conventions (August I think) at the earliest.
Does this mean Trump will necessarily win? No. But Biden is not a shoe in just because we all know absolutely no one who will vote for Trump.
I don't think these adverts will have a huge amount of impact with the Republican vote although they are very punchy. If you were Republican and voted for Trump in 2016 knowing all what you did about him, I'm not sure what exactly persuades you not to vote for him in 2020 - yes, he's awful, is a slob etc but you know what you were getting already.
As have mentioned before, one of the least commented facts is that Trump probably does have a base of extra votes that he can eat into from 2016 namely the 3.8% combined vote of the Libertarians and McMullin, or 4.8m extra votes compared with 2012. Given the latters' stances, it is a fair assumption to say that most of their votes were ex-Republicans. Some will stay away but there may be some that see the rioting on the streets, statues being tore down etc and decide to hold their noses and vote for Trump.
The other thing it always pays to pay attention to in this situation is what people are actually doing. The Politico article that interviewed various GOP executives across the country made it very clear that they do not see Trump as a liability and are genuinely positive about their prospects in November. The same goes for the GOP in Congress: apart from Romney and Murkowski, who each uniquely have alternative power bases in their states (Mormons i Utah, family dominance in Alaska) none of the other GOP Senators (even Collins fighting a tough re-election battle) have publicly disvowed him. That suggests they don't see him as a liability either.
One final point. Much has been said of Biden's basement strategy and how clever it is to let Trump make his mistakes. However, the longer this goes on, the longer the Democrats risk being branded as the party of left wing activists who take down statues and defund the Police. Nor would it be right to assume that an anti-Police stance guarantees extra Black votes when many Black neighbourhoods are seeing a sharp rise in shootings. Biden needs to come out and define exactly what he is for. Otherwise he risks being seen as just an anti-Trump vote which might not be enough.
I would take awful if awful is generating conditions that increase employment and income. Trump did this without question. On Economic and Business matters Trumps beats any real politician and that's why he will pick up as soon as the debate moves there. Of course the opponent will do anything to stop that happening.
Gosh. I spy somebody who still thinks Donald Trump is a "smart businessman" who is "not a politician" and thus "knows how to get things done"?
People are strange sometimes.
Gosh I spy a leftist that would never say a positive word about the 45th POTUS whatever he has done. What can't be taken away he smashed the Bush and Clinton cabals and presided over an economy where the key data was unstintingly positive, before CCP virus. Trump has obvious faults but all ORANGEMAN BAD, no not having it.
You sound like a cliche. Shape up.
The US budget position pre-Covid was "unstintingly positive", was it?
His 2016 win, capturing the Republican Party, getting elected as POTUS - this was a truly stunning achievement. He is charismatic, ruthless, and possessed of street smarts and a low cunning. He has a genuine gift for pressing the buttons of supporters and opponents alike, and for communicating base sentiments to basic people in ostensibly basic but actually quite effective language. He can read people and has an instinct for their weaknesses. He is, all in all, a formidable operator. Or has been anyway.
Ok. Now the other side of the ledger -
He is a pathological liar and narcissist, a misogynist, a dog-whistling racist, a person driven exclusively by his own personal interest and gratification, a person of shallow intellect and mean spirit and low character, a malevolent troll of zero attention span beyond that required to send a tweet, and - the biggie - he is STAGGERINGLY inept and out of his depth in the job.
Unfit for office, in other words, which enough people can now see. Of course there are still plenty of people dumb enough to still think he's a supersmart cookie who knows what he's doing - you are evidence of that - but not nearly enough this time.
As the budget is set by congress, not much Trump could do there. The American domestic presidential powers are often over estimated in the UK.
Some of the points on both sides are fair, apart from the racist, which is garbage. We will see what the American people will see, myself I don't think the map will be that much different to last time. Many close states could go either way.
Clinton was in many ways a poor choice but much tougher and cleverer than Biden, who again will be running on an unpopular platform. Late abortion, open borders, defund police, higher taxes etc.
Comments
On the campsites they seem to have gone from zero to full communal without the obvious intermediate step of simply allowing people to their own statics (With full facilities including shower, cooking, washing up) contained within the static and not communal.
You can almost certainly do what the South Koreans are doing purely using mobile phone signalling data. No app required, and it works with any phone that is on. That seems to be what Israel has done.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/LLLby
Avoids media scrutiny?
Inexperienced?
But nothing like Trump.
©PB BJ Boosters.
I see this as a little bit the same, you can argue nobody has an on phone contract tracing app, but you could also argue countries do have fully functional contract tracing apps (it just happens to be that all the data collection is done in the cloud and the app is really just the window / alert system).
For the user in South Korea, they have an app, it provides contact tracing info and it works. It just doesn't work like all the ones in the West want to, where privacy has been decided to be absolutely crucial.
Meanwhile another hotel bites the dust with 45 jobs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-53157227?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/23/andrew-bailey-struggles-resist-pressures-monetary-financing/
https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1275760103350829058
PS I doubt the "flip flop" line will work. Starmer doesn't look like a flip-flopper. I don't think the schools line worked this week as Starmer had an answer.
They have now had an eyeful of the reality over the last 4 years and a sizeable proportion of that sizeable proportion, be they Republicans or otherwise, are thinking, "Nope. Jerk. Clueless. Not again." This is what is driving the polls right now and it is what will drive the result. Given the 2016 start point of a freakish EC win from a PV deficit it spells landslide defeat this time. Any other outcome is vanishingly unlikely unless voter suppression reaches ridiculous levels and I have enough faith in the US electoral process to more or less discount that.
WH2020 is a silent majority election. And the silent majority have had enough of Donald Trump.
Take this to the bank.
That said I think the guidance on 1 metre/2 metre was very good. It allows restaurants to arrange a seating plan - 1 metre side side, front back chairs 1 metre apart with the 'ultimately facing' chairs 2 metres apart seperated by 2 tables and 2 chairs.
That would surely be because of the two, golf is the mass, repeated activity (a million players?), and the virus is far enough suppressed than 100k-200k or so one off person-attendances (involving a lot of duplication) at a set of demonstrations is not significant enough to register in the overall scheme of things even given lack of social distance in some cases.
https://unherd.com/2020/06/was-the-two-metre-rule-one-big-lie/
https://twitter.com/BGrueskin/status/1275762858006102017
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3867475/
(Credit: Lincolnite)
"The Rt Hon and Learned Gentleman needs to cut me a little slack. Its all very well trying to lure me into traps and to show errors, but I am both running the country raising a new baby and recovering from this virus. Back off" would get a lot of sympathy because its utterly human.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-53164226
But Sir Alllllllllun says he doesn't know anybody who has died from it.
'If he feels he cannot juggle those three challenges, should he not alleviate the situation by standing down as Prime Minister?'
So he really, really cannot say it.
George Floyd was murdered on the 25th of May. I hear there was a bit of a protest in Minneapolis about this. Here is Minnesota's Covid deaths, hospitalisations and cases from the 25th onwards.
Can you point out the big spike?
Deaths
Hospitalisations
Cases
The economy? No better than Obama and he started with a better situation than Obama did. Best that could be said is he was unable to crash it.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/9-charts-comparing-trump-economy-to-obama-bush-administrations-2019-9-1028833119#unemployment-shot-up-dramatically-during-the-financial-crisis-at-the-end-of-george-w-bush-s-and-the-start-of-barack-obama-s-terms-before-steadily-dropping-for-most-of-the-decade-2
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf
I am not saying protests are THE reason, I am arguing I don't believe they aren't A reason. As the West coast and South were opening up.
Anyone who predicts that Trump will win at this point is a fool. That doesn't mean that there are no value bets to be had at long odds, but value bets are a very different thing to believing that something is more likely than not to happen.
https://twitter.com/PlanningShit/status/1275712720160120832
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-40529083
Berlusconi at least has better claims to being a smart businessman, if you think doing deals with the mafia is smart. Trump is not even a good business person, he only has enough cunning, and the right connections, to get other people to pay for his repeated failures. It's certainly not the kind of business smarts you would want in someone in charge of any large organisation or anything that is socially useful. Trashing the environment and massively increasing debt so that billionaires can make even more of a fast buck is terrible economic management.
Would anyone still think we should be tearing down statues on the say so of these people if it is? Recent targets strongly suggest they are Maoists bent on ruthless destruction and vandalism for its own sake rather than reasonable people making a point.
https://twitter.com/summerelopez/status/1275637377369808896
Opinium 18-19th June
Net approval
BJ -5%
Sturgeon +15%
Pretty sure it's only a matter of time before some hapless BJ booster starts moaning about Sturgeon not following Johnson.
Edit: Lol.
Trump's going to get hammered. Take it to the bank.
The US budget position pre-Covid was "unstintingly positive", was it?
https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306
And my objectivity is legendary. Here look -
His 2016 win, capturing the Republican Party, getting elected as POTUS - this was a truly stunning achievement. He is charismatic, ruthless, and possessed of street smarts and a low cunning. He has a genuine gift for pressing the buttons of supporters and opponents alike, and for communicating base sentiments to basic people in ostensibly basic but actually quite effective language. He can read people and has an instinct for their weaknesses. He is, all in all, a formidable operator. Or has been anyway.
Ok. Now the other side of the ledger -
He is a pathological liar and narcissist, a misogynist, a dog-whistling racist, a person driven exclusively by his own personal interest and gratification, a person of shallow intellect and mean spirit and low character, a malevolent troll of zero attention span beyond that required to send a tweet, and - the biggie - he is STAGGERINGLY inept and out of his depth in the job.
Unfit for office, in other words, which enough people can now see. Of course there are still plenty of people dumb enough to still think he's a supersmart cookie who knows what he's doing - you are evidence of that - but not nearly enough this time.
And you are warmly welcomed to TrumpToast club.
Do you want the tee shirt or the toast rack?
In December’s election the Conservatives established a 15-point lead over Labour among people on low incomes, the first time in history the Tories have outpolled the Labour Party in this demographic. The Tories held a 9-point lead among those on high incomes, this lead grew to 15-points among low income voters making them the true people’s party…
https://order-order.com/2020/06/24/working-classes-back-tories-reject-woke-labour-party/
I can see the whole woke thing becoming a dividing line like Brexit. BUT, I think Tories polling reliance on working class votes is very dangerous for them. We are going into very bad economic times, the working class are normally hardest hit by downturns (and I think we will see increasing automation). And of course all us middle class types can WFH, where as most working class jobs require you to continue to go out every day and risk the Covid.
Headline : 51
Last 7 days : 50
Yesterday: 4
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-justice-of-blindness/
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-comfort-of-lies/
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1275751976555462659?s=20
On which theme, Tabby is now showing weekly data for the Scottish Test and Protect (track and trace) service - about a quarter of the way down the webpage. Latest complete week's data shows contact tracing completed to date for 90% of cases that week.
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker
Out of interest why would someone who voted for a Libertarian in 2016 not do so again in 2020? I also understand that the Green Party or not going to be on the ballot in a lot of critical states this year.
Whist I still think this could go either way because there are 5 months to go to be honest your comments seem to me to be more a wish list of what hope might happen rather than an analysis of what is happening. The idea that people knew what Trump was like in 2016 and still voted for him was similar to the argument we heard about why Corbyn was going to come through in 2019 as he did 2 years earlier.
Culturally though post Brexit the white working class has swung to the Tories and Boris and that is little to do with economics
There are several things which could probably indicate a quick Biden victory on election night.
Indiana is staying red but if it's not instacalled for Trump (At the same time as Kentucky) he's likely in trouble.
Quick projection for Biden in Michigan would obviously be another.
You barbarian.
What other kind of prepared is there?
Honestly.
*returns to trying to be productive and not melt*
https://unherd.com/2020/06/we-will-have-to-take-a-side-in-cold-war-ii/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
Plus a LD coalition would enable him to isolate the Corbynite left as such a coalition enabled Cameron to isolate the Cornerstone right from 2010 to 2015
The campaign has hardly started and we are all calling it for Joe Biden. Probably channeling our desires.
In the UK we think we have good coverage of US news. We don't. It is all filtered through the political lens of our correspondents. So we all thought Stormy/Avenatti (remember them?) were going to bring down Trump.
Mueller got called out months beforehand in the US but we were not told that.
Biden has not faced journalists for 90 odd days, and we think that is normal.
Biden is not a great candidate, there is a reason his previous runs for the presidency bombed. He's been around for nearly 50 years. He plagiarized the great Kinnock in his 1988 run.
Biden looks like he has dementia. His face mask flapping off his ear a few weeks ago had echoes of Dukakis and the tank. He seems to have a knack for inappropriately touching women and girls of all ages. His treatment of Anita Hill was memorable. Trump and his acolytes will be merciless in exploiting all this.
No one has heard of John Durham in the UK. Barr was on record this weekend as saying there WAS a plot to bring down Trump.
There is a long way to go. Typically the campaign does not start till Labor (sic) Day Sept 7th (a bit late this year) or the conventions (August I think) at the earliest.
Does this mean Trump will necessarily win? No. But Biden is not a shoe in just because we all know absolutely no one who will vote for Trump.
Some of the points on both sides are fair, apart from the racist, which is garbage. We will see what the American people will see, myself I don't think the map will be that much different to last time. Many close states could go either way.
Clinton was in many ways a poor choice but much tougher and cleverer than Biden, who again will be running on an unpopular platform. Late abortion, open borders, defund police, higher taxes etc.