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  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Just popping by. I won't be here long
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Do we know you? :smile:
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    But sweet Christ. Paris.

    https://twitter.com/Conflits_FR/status/1272903091898195968?s=20

    We are in a genuinely terrifying dystopian movie
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited June 2020
    Andrew said:


    Again, all these state polling figures are very similar to polling during summer 2016, which is somewhat remarkable given events.

    Some were indeed, but Michigan appears to be a much bigger lead. This quite a significant difference, opens up so many more paths for Biden.

    Lets check state polling from 2016 for June

    Arizona
    PPP (D)* 6/22 - 6/23 691 RV 3.7 44 40 Trump +4
    OH Predictive Insights 6/20 - 6/20 1060 LV 3.0 42 47 Clinton +5

    Michigan (May/July, no June polls)
    CBS News/YouGov* 7/13 - 7/15 1201 LV 4.1 42 39 Clinton +3
    MRG* 7/11 - 7/15 800 LV 3.5 34 29 Clinton +5
    Mitchell Research 7/5 - 7/11 600 LV 4.0 40 34 Clinton +6
    Gravis 7/7 - 7/8 1562 A 2.4 48 41 Clinton +7
    Detroit News 5/24 - 5/26 600 LV 4.0 43 39 Clinton +4

    Wisconsin
    PPP (D)* 6/22 - 6/23 843 RV 3.4 47 39 Clinton +8
    CBS News/YouGov 6/21 - 6/24 993 LV 4.3 41 36 Clinton +5
    Marquette 6/6 - 6/9 666 LV 4.9 46 37 Clinton +9

    Pennsylvania
    Quinnipiac 6/30 - 7/11 982 RV 3.1 41 43 Trump +2
    NBC/WSJ/Marist 7/5 - 7/10 829 RV 3.4 45 36 Clinton +9
    Gravis* 6/27 - 6/28 1958 RV 2.2 50 48 Clinton +2
    PPP (D)* 6/22 - 6/23 980 RV 3.1 46 42 Clinton +4
    Quinnipiac 6/8 - 6/19 950 RV 3.2 42 41 Clinton +1
    PPP (D) 6/3 - 6/5 1106 RV 3.0 44 44 Tie

    WI was an almighty miss right through November but the rest of the polling is better for Biden than it was for Clinton. You won't make money relying on polling as bad as Wisconsin in the long run.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    SeanT said:
    Seems the word 'riot' is the antonym of the word 'lockdown'.
  • SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Welcome back, Sean!
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Some quite scary images. One seriously wounded so far

    https://twitter.com/LPLdirect/status/1272886192007188480?s=20
  • SeanT said:
    Seems the word 'riot' is the antonym of the word 'lockdown'.
    Savoir vivre.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    What are the apparent benefits to the UK of the large contributions made with taxpayers' money to other nations?

    I think we used to have a sort of business investment fund that invested in poorer parts of the world in return for some of the profits, which sounds mutually beneficial and sensible, but believe Brown axed that.

    Soft power, exports and related jobs, increased international security, less terrorism are the main tangible benefits along with a moral benefit of helping those weaker than yourself, which many but not all would also consider a benefit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Hello @SeanT !
    Been some colourful characters here over the last year or so.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2020
    SeanT said:

    But sweet Christ. Paris.

    https://twitter.com/Conflits_FR/status/1272903091898195968?s=20

    We are in a genuinely terrifying dystopian movie

    Luckily much of Britain is experiencing a more unifying cultural moment, as a young working-class black footballer is David against Goliath and George Best combined for a day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    The man, the legend.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    For anyone who watched the series about this chain this news will come as no surprise to anyone

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53063278
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    What are the apparent benefits to the UK of the large contributions made with taxpayers' money to other nations?

    I think we used to have a sort of business investment fund that invested in poorer parts of the world in return for some of the profits, which sounds mutually beneficial and sensible, but believe Brown axed that.

    I'kll never forget the QT where someone asked about money being sent to India

    ''poorest in the world absolutely destitute...blah blah blah''

    But they've got a space programme.

    ''Well true but these really are the poorest, more poor blah''

    But they've got a space programme

    ''extreme poverty, destitution, unimaginable conditions''

    But they've got a space programme. We don't have a space programme...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434

    What are the apparent benefits to the UK of the large contributions made with taxpayers' money to other nations?

    I think we used to have a sort of business investment fund that invested in poorer parts of the world in return for some of the profits, which sounds mutually beneficial and sensible, but believe Brown axed that.

    You would hope it would lead to stable prosperous democracies providing lucrative export markets for British business, making the world safer for British citizens, and reducing the flow of desperate people attempting to reach Britain as a safe haven.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
    Touche
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
    Whipping up a race war. Really poor show.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The news on dexamethasone may well be even better than it looks at first sight, for two reasons. Firstly, given that it presumably acts by reducing the immune system's inflammatory over-reaction to infection of the lungs, it seems likely that as well as saving lives in the short-term it will reduce the long-term damage to the lungs of those who survive. Secondly, it seems likely that the results could be even better if scientists can find a suitable anti-viral to administer in combination with it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    .

    Honestly why didn't the government try to get its hands on as much dexa-metha- thingy as poss before announcing its efficacy?

    At least it could have made the taxpayer a few quid flogging it to other countries.

    Its not like we don't need the cash.

    Because it's cheap as chips and available globally.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
    Whipping up a race war. Really poor show.
    Lol, on pb.com - some war that'd be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Honestly why didn't the government try to get its hands on as much dexa-metha- thingy as poss before announcing its efficacy?

    At least it could have made the taxpayer a few quid flogging it to other countries.

    Its not like we don't need the cash.

    Because it's cheap as chips and available globally.
    Which is the cherry on top. Deaths down by a third, and the medication is available worldwide.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. T, welcome back.

    Mr. Above/Mr. Password, cheers for those answers.

    I have some sympathy with much of that. But given that taxpayers' money is finite (despite recent furloughing) I don't see why DFID, alongside only Health, got ringfenced when every other department had to make substantial cuts.

    We could do with more money for the courts, and I'd sooner have a well-functioning judicial system here than spending money overseas.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Also, Dijon. What the hell is happening in Dijon?

    https://twitter.com/themetskipper/status/1272810439320252416?s=20

    I am genuinely worried for the future of the West. I wrote about it here:

    https://unherd.com/2020/06/the-disturbing-history-of-statue-smashing/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    England case numbers out -

    by specimen date -

    image
    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited June 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
    Whipping up a race war. Really poor show.
    Lol, on pb.com - some war that'd be.
    :smile: - but we do see certain people getting vicariously worked up in a reprehensible way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
    Don't be churlish - we haven't seen Sean in absolutely ages....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Noone cares what former PMs think. Now, local lad playing centre forward for Man United. That's a different story.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    What are the apparent benefits to the UK of the large contributions made with taxpayers' money to other nations?

    I think we used to have a sort of business investment fund that invested in poorer parts of the world in return for some of the profits, which sounds mutually beneficial and sensible, but believe Brown axed that.

    I'kll never forget the QT where someone asked about money being sent to India

    ''poorest in the world absolutely destitute...blah blah blah''

    But they've got a space programme.

    ''Well true but these really are the poorest, more poor blah''

    But they've got a space programme

    ''extreme poverty, destitution, unimaginable conditions''

    But they've got a space programme. We don't have a space programme...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,563
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_xP said:
    + 1

    That tweet hits the nail on the head!
    Except that it is complete crap. The EU foreign aid budget in 2019 was 1.6bnEuros: https://ec.europa.eu/echo/news/eu-adopts-record-budget-humanitarian-aid-2019_en

    The top 10 donors are here: https://www.countriesnow.com/top-10-largest-donor-of-foreign-aid-in-the-world-3/
    Our budget was over $10.6bn and the second largest in the world. Or, to put it another way little Britain's aid budget will be more than 6x the EU budget.
    Worth publishing the list

    1. United States 31.00
    2. United Kingdom 12.46
    3. Japan 11.19
    4. France 10.60
    5. Germany 10.44
    6. Netherlands 5.45
    7. United Arab Emirates 5.20
    8. Sweden 3.95
    9. Canada 3.90
    10. Spain 3.81

    So France and Germany aren't far behind the UK and the Netherlands and Sweden both donate far more per capita.
    Actually according to the DfID, the UK ODA spend last year was £15.17 billion or just a shade under $19 billion

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878395/Statistics-on-International-Development-Provisional-UK-Aid-Spend-2019.pdf

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Rash hits the back of the net, but I'm never that into 'u-turn' hysteria.

    It's good that governments are capable of engaging with the debate and changing their minds.

    That's actually one of the few things I like about Boris' premiership – he is willing to change his mind following a public debate on policy matters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited June 2020

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    Self contained accomodation, caravans and so forth should probably have been open by now. Large hotels, not so sure. B&Bs are the middle case I guess.
    But people should be able to get to their own damned caravans already.
    Basic reproductive rate of the virus hasn't changed all that much since the start of lockdown (Gone up slightly as restrictions have eased I think), the power of keeping it below 1/ compound interest (in reverse) ;)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_xP said:
    + 1

    That tweet hits the nail on the head!
    Except that it is complete crap. The EU foreign aid budget in 2019 was 1.6bnEuros: https://ec.europa.eu/echo/news/eu-adopts-record-budget-humanitarian-aid-2019_en

    The top 10 donors are here: https://www.countriesnow.com/top-10-largest-donor-of-foreign-aid-in-the-world-3/
    Our budget was over $10.6bn and the second largest in the world. Or, to put it another way little Britain's aid budget will be more than 6x the EU budget.
    Worth publishing the list

    1. United States 31.00
    2. United Kingdom 12.46
    3. Japan 11.19
    4. France 10.60
    5. Germany 10.44
    6. Netherlands 5.45
    7. United Arab Emirates 5.20
    8. Sweden 3.95
    9. Canada 3.90
    10. Spain 3.81

    So France and Germany aren't far behind the UK and the Netherlands and Sweden both donate far more per capita.
    Actually according to the DfID, the UK ODA spend last year was £15.17 billion or just a shade under $19 billion

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878395/Statistics-on-International-Development-Provisional-UK-Aid-Spend-2019.pdf

    The list was from 2013 so most will be out of date and presumably mostly bigger from inflation/growth by now.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    It would be helpful for Boris to say something about pubs and restaurants today. Say similar to what is happening in Northern Ireland from 3 July.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    What are the apparent benefits to the UK of the large contributions made with taxpayers' money to other nations?

    I think we used to have a sort of business investment fund that invested in poorer parts of the world in return for some of the profits, which sounds mutually beneficial and sensible, but believe Brown axed that.

    I'kll never forget the QT where someone asked about money being sent to India

    ''poorest in the world absolutely destitute...blah blah blah''

    But they've got a space programme.

    ''Well true but these really are the poorest, more poor blah''

    But they've got a space programme

    ''extreme poverty, destitution, unimaginable conditions''

    But they've got a space programme. We don't have a space programme...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
    "Yeah, yeah, but if you give them anything they'll only go and spend it on booze or a spaceship."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Mr. T, welcome back.

    Mr. Above/Mr. Password, cheers for those answers.

    I have some sympathy with much of that. But given that taxpayers' money is finite (despite recent furloughing) I don't see why DFID, alongside only Health, got ringfenced when every other department had to make substantial cuts.

    We could do with more money for the courts, and I'd sooner have a well-functioning judicial system here than spending money overseas.

    Health was ringfenced for a good reason. Imagine it hadn't been with the pandemic arriving !
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    It would be interesting to get some kind of breakdown on the 233 new reported deaths. Are the majority now in care homes?

    The NHS England total has declined from 129 last Tuesday to 79 this Tuesday. Also, only three of those were in London.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Bozo Antoinette: "Let them eat Greggs"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Mr. T, welcome back.

    Mr. Above/Mr. Password, cheers for those answers.

    I have some sympathy with much of that. But given that taxpayers' money is finite (despite recent furloughing) I don't see why DFID, alongside only Health, got ringfenced when every other department had to make substantial cuts.

    We could do with more money for the courts, and I'd sooner have a well-functioning judicial system here than spending money overseas.

    Im not sure why it should be ringfenced either. I am in favour of spending it but not arbitrary % thresholds nor do I really care which dept it sits in. I dont see why we shouldnt contribute more when we are doing well and less when doing badly either.

    Given we are paying more than most other wealthy countries lobbying for a level playing field would be one of my priorities in this area.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2020

    Andrew said:

    Few more polls came through, inc MI+16 and AZ+4:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1272894207959728132

    Again, all these state polling figures are very similar to polling during summer 2016, which is somewhat remarkable given events.
    This time in 2016 Clinton was ahead by
    8 in Colorado and New Mexico
    4 in Virginia
    2 in Nevada
    1.5 in Florida
    1 in Arizona
    -4.2 in Georgia

    These polling averages a clearly quite a bit higher.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    SeanT said:

    But sweet Christ. Paris.

    https://twitter.com/Conflits_FR/status/1272903091898195968?s=20

    We are in a genuinely terrifying dystopian movie

    Is that the one where there is an over excitable journalist with lots of friends placed in every major news story who has multiple personality disorder and an obsession with race war? I think Ive read about it somewhere.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It was a mistake for Cameron to ringfenced DFID spending and increase it year on year when most other departments were having to cut spending.

    No more
    image

    DFID is still ringfenced at 0.7% of GDP.

    There we go @RobD knew it wouldn't take long. He really doesn't understand this percentage of GDP idea does he?
    But if the departments are merged, the Foreign Office can get cut and the DFID can pick up the slack.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    @Alistair Trump backers can always hope for a mass repeat of the WIsconsin polling disaster I guess. It's not a strategy I'm following though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited June 2020

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    It would be interesting to get some kind of breakdown on the 233 new reported deaths. Are the majority now in care homes?

    The NHS England total has declined from 129 last Tuesday to 79 this Tuesday. Also, only three of those were in London.
    The weekend reporting effect is very sharp for the non-hospital numbers.

    See the graph at - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk.

    Tuesday and Wednesday are highest.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    SeanT said:

    But sweet Christ. Paris.

    https://twitter.com/Conflits_FR/status/1272903091898195968?s=20

    We are in a genuinely terrifying dystopian movie

    Is that the one where there is an over excitable journalist with lots of friends placed in every major news story who has multiple personality disorder and an obsession with race war? I think Ive read about it somewhere.
    Yes, that's my latest plot
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In Covid watching news the great state of Georgia is seeing it's death count levelling off after initially showing what many would call a period of "strongly declining". Cases are now peaking again




  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    @Alistair Trump backers can always hope for a mass repeat of the WIsconsin polling disaster I guess. It's not a strategy I'm following though.

    The problem was not Wisconsin being a polling disaster but it being repeated across the rust belt! Which, with the benefit of hindsight, of course it would be. You wouldn't get a polling miss in just one state, you'd get a polling miss across correlated demographics.

    I am certainly far, far warier this time out in interpreting the American state polling.

    Trump is fucking toast though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    My sources tell me that testing is implying between 15% and 20% of people in London have antibodies. This is imo quite a good number. It's not the "iceberg" but it does seem as if there has been plenty of asymptomatic infection. That was a bad thing at the start of the epidemic since it hastened the spread - lots of people not knowing they have the virus and going around shedding it - but at a certain point it becomes a net good thing because of the dampening impact of significant 'community immunity' (what a lovely sounding term!). Perhaps we have passed that tipping point now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Blimey if you read some of these posts you would think the government had no right to impement a manifesto it had an 80 seat majority for.

    If they are so comfortable with their 80-seat majority, why the u-turns?
    That doesn't stop them from being idiots. They should have seen this coming. Sensible to keep the scheme in place over the summer. A drop in the ocean compared to spending elsewhere.
    One thing is certain, though - if things are back to normal. and he drops the scheme next summer, the haters will be saying, or posting numerous tweets of other people saying, he is starving poor kids to death.
    Precisely.

    As I proposed earlier, they should have pledged to match fund donations. If they had done that, Rashford and his Labour fan club would be squabbling amongst themselves right now rather than doing a victory lap.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    What are the apparent benefits to the UK of the large contributions made with taxpayers' money to other nations?

    I think we used to have a sort of business investment fund that invested in poorer parts of the world in return for some of the profits, which sounds mutually beneficial and sensible, but believe Brown axed that.

    I think the bottom line is that merging the two departments is a very good idea. I agree with Richard Nabavi that the timing suggests some Brexit deal features that Tory backbenchers aren't going to like.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2020


    It would be interesting to get some kind of breakdown on the 233 new reported deaths. Are the majority now in care homes?

    The ONS has figures on location of covid deaths: care homes increased steadily to a peak of ~45%ish a month ago, then declined to around a third now. This is actual date of death so a more accurate picture than the daily numbers, but only until Jun5th.

    The guy below posts breakdowns of the daily figures:


    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1272898297267699714
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
    Don't be churlish - we haven't seen Sean in absolutely ages....
    Agreed - we'll need some insider travel tips shortly!
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    Bozo Antoinette: "Let them eat Greggs"

    That will really put Nicola under pressure.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited June 2020
    SeanT said:

    Also, Dijon. What the hell is happening in Dijon?

    https://twitter.com/themetskipper/status/1272810439320252416?s=20

    I am genuinely worried for the future of the West. I wrote about it here:

    https://unherd.com/2020/06/the-disturbing-history-of-statue-smashing/

    Would you be happy with the accolade of 'thinking man's Rod Liddle'?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear, their consultancy income must be under threat
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    sarissa said:

    Bozo Antoinette: "Let them eat Greggs"

    That will really put Nicola under pressure.....
    Who'd be a food company.

    Watching the government hurling your tax money at feeding the poor, and at the same time being castigated for being responsible for rampant childhood .....er......obesity.

    We can't have them obese kids going hungry though....er......right?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Is this what a second wave looks like?

    Depressing images coming out of Iran again: usually an ominous sign

    https://twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1272917034549075969?s=20
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear, their consultancy income must be under threat
    Sounding more and more like a good idea.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear, their consultancy income must be under threat
    Quite - the sound you hear is rice bowls breaking. In the executive offices of various NGOs....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    SeanT said:

    Is this what a second wave looks like?

    Depressing images coming out of Iran again: usually an ominous sign

    https://twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1272917034549075969?s=20

    Looks bad across all Islamic countries even on the official figures - I'm assuming it's a Ramadan effect.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear, their consultancy income must be under threat
    Do Tony Blair's embedded teams help governments access DfiD money?

    https://twitter.com/institutegc/status/1259075645595725824
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    All come a bit late really, this should be across all UK news channels. Adam Boulton is a twitter addict so I doubt he will manage it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear, their consultancy income must be under threat
    In France they are much better at this.

    In France, aid budgets are explicitly for the promotion of French interests. Want a power station? Sure, but Alstom and Lafarge are building it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    edited June 2020
    Just went into tax credits calculator.

    Single parent, two children, working part-time earning £7,500 per year gets:

    Child tax credits £477.87 every 4 weeks (ie £119 per week)
    Working tax credits of £360.80 every 4 weeks (ie £90 per week)

    They will also get child benefit of £35 per week (£21.05 1st child, £13.95 2nd child)

    Can anyone explain what the child tax credits and child benefit (total £154 per week) is for if it isn't to feed your children?

    In total such a person is getting per year £12,688 benefits + £7,500 earnings (zero tax/NI) to give total of £20,188 cash in their pocket.

    And they can't buy their children lunch?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andrew said:


    It would be interesting to get some kind of breakdown on the 233 new reported deaths. Are the majority now in care homes?

    The ONS has figures on location of covid deaths: care homes increased steadily to a peak of ~45%ish a month ago, then declined to around a third now. This is actual date of death so a more accurate picture than the daily numbers, but only until Jun5th.

    The guy below posts breakdowns of the daily figures:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1272898297267699714
    Oh? I can only assume in that case that those PHE numbers, which are the largest contributor, include a LOT of deaths where reporting has been significantly delayed then? Unless the percentage of people dying of this thing at home is rising, which doesn't seem logical.

    Hopefully once the backlog of delayed reporting has been cleared the daily totals will fall off a cliff.
    kinabalu said:

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    My sources tell me that testing is implying between 15% and 20% of people in London have antibodies. This is imo quite a good number. It's not the "iceberg" but it does seem as if there has been plenty of asymptomatic infection. That was a bad thing at the start of the epidemic since it hastened the spread - lots of people not knowing they have the virus and going around shedding it - but at a certain point it becomes a net good thing because of the dampening impact of significant 'community immunity' (what a lovely sounding term!). Perhaps we have passed that tipping point now.
    Daily Covid hospital deaths for the London region, June 1st onwards:

    9, 13, 30, 8, 10, 5, 4, 0, 17, 7, 3, 8, 3, 3, 5, 3

    The last date on which a double digit number was recorded was last Tuesday, June 9th. The population of London exceeds that of Scotland and Wales combined and, needless to say, lives at a vastly higher density, so that can't be anything other than encouraging?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    edited June 2020

    SeanT said:

    Is this what a second wave looks like?

    Depressing images coming out of Iran again: usually an ominous sign

    https://twitter.com/Laaask2/status/1272917034549075969?s=20

    Looks bad across all Islamic countries even on the official figures - I'm assuming it's a Ramadan effect.
    If this virus comes back as a second wave, around the world, worse than the first..... God help us.

    What's more, even if you "contain" the virus, life is seriously dystopian.

    Look at this FT article on South Korea (££)

    Schoolkids in plastic boxes. No social interaction allowed

    https://www.ft.com/content/d68d6292-0486-4bfc-bf5c-54ce850a3f7a



    "By the time eight-year-old Lee Ji-ho is bundled out the door for his one day a week of in-class schooling, his mother has already completed an online form detailing his temperature, any signs of a cough or other respiratory complaints, and whether any family members have recently arrived home from overseas or are in quarantine.

    "Once at school in Seoul’s Seocho district, he sits metres apart from classmates and is instructed not to talk to friends — not even during lunch, where instead he eats in solitude, separated from the other children by a plastic divider."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kinabalu said:

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    My sources tell me that testing is implying between 15% and 20% of people in London have antibodies. This is imo quite a good number. It's not the "iceberg" but it does seem as if there has been plenty of asymptomatic infection. That was a bad thing at the start of the epidemic since it hastened the spread - lots of people not knowing they have the virus and going around shedding it - but at a certain point it becomes a net good thing because of the dampening impact of significant 'community immunity' (what a lovely sounding term!). Perhaps we have passed that tipping point now.
    It would seem so. London’s average death rate is now lower than in non-Covid times, at least according to a story I read today. Time for action!
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Abolish all these stupid knighthoods, honours etc. Everyone does a job, some better than others, some have a gift for something, so what, thats life. Cancel the whole damn system, its an anachronism that desereves to be be to bed. Away with it I say. ASre we a forward thinking democracy or just bent on issuing priveleges to the few.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    MikeL said:

    Just went into tax credits calculator.

    Single parent, two children, working part-time earning £7,500 per year gets:

    Child tax credits £477.87 every 4 weeks (ie £119 per week)
    Working tax credits of £360.80 every 4 weeks (ie £90 per week)

    They will also get child benefit of £35 per week (£21.05 1st child, £13.95 2nd child)

    Can anyone explain what the child tax credits and child benefit (total £154 per week) is for if it isn't to feed your children?

    In total such a person is getting per year £12,688 benefits + £7,500 earnings (zero tax/NI) to give total of £20,188 cash in their pocket.

    And they can't buy their children lunch?

    Self employed hairdresser?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    MikeL said:

    Just went into tax credits calculator.

    Single parent, two children, working part-time earning £7,500 per year gets:

    Child tax credits £477.87 every 4 weeks (ie £119 per week)
    Working tax credits of £360.80 every 4 weeks (ie £90 per week)

    They will also get child benefit of £35 per week (£21.05 1st child, £13.95 2nd child)

    Can anyone explain what the child tax credits and child benefit (total £154 per week) is for if it isn't to feed your children?

    In total such a person is getting per year £12,688 benefits + £7,500 earnings (zero tax/NI) to give total of £20,188 cash in their pocket.

    And they can't buy their children lunch?

    Housing costs.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Sean’s sole contribution this evening seems to be to whip up fear and loathing.

    Are the extremists concerned that covidphobia is dwindling? Send for Sean!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    MikeL said:

    Just went into tax credits calculator.

    Single parent, two children, working part-time earning £7,500 per year gets:

    Child tax credits £477.87 every 4 weeks (ie £119 per week)
    Working tax credits of £360.80 every 4 weeks (ie £90 per week)

    They will also get child benefit of £35 per week (£21.05 1st child, £13.95 2nd child)

    Can anyone explain what the child tax credits and child benefit (total £154 per week) is for if it isn't to feed your children?

    In total such a person is getting per year £12,688 benefits + £7,500 earnings (zero tax/NI) to give total of £20,188 cash in their pocket.

    And they can't buy their children lunch?

    Housing costs.
    Housing benefit :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    The receptor binding domain of the viral spike protein is an immunodominant and highly specific target of antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 patients
    https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/5/48/eabc8413
    ...Currently, the virus infection in individuals and at the population level is being monitored by PCR testing of symptomatic patients for the presence of viral RNA. There is an urgent need for SARS-CoV-2 serologic tests to identify all infected individuals, irrespective of clinical symptoms, to conduct surveillance and implement strategies to contain spread. As the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein is poorly conserved between SARS-CoVs and other pathogenic human coronaviruses, the RBD represents a promising antigen for detecting CoV-specific antibodies in people. Here we use a large panel of human sera (63 SARS-CoV-2 patients and 71 control subjects) and hyperimmune sera from animals exposed to zoonotic CoVs to evaluate RBD's performance as an antigen for reliable detection of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. By day 9 after the onset of symptoms, the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 RBD antigen was highly sensitive (98%) and specific (100%) for antibodies induced by SARS-CoVs. We observed a strong correlation between levels of RBD binding antibodies and SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in patients. Our results, which reveal the early kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses, support using the RBD antigen in serological diagnostic assays and RBD-specific antibody levels as a correlate of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in people....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    Scott_xP said:
    The short term impact will be that 'our officials won't be feted so much at those fab overseas receptions'
    So speaks someone whose knowledge of diplomatic receptions is gleaned from Ferrero Rochet adverts. The reality is a lot less glamorous.
    Based on my experience of the FCO and DFID my only hope is that this is a reverse takeover. DFID is a genuinely world beating organisation, the FCO... not so much.
    LOL, biggest bunch of money wasters and inefficiency ever known to man.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    SeanT said:
    Back from the grave Sean, welcome.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MikeL said:

    Just went into tax credits calculator.

    Single parent, two children, working part-time earning £7,500 per year gets:

    Child tax credits £477.87 every 4 weeks (ie £119 per week)
    Working tax credits of £360.80 every 4 weeks (ie £90 per week)

    They will also get child benefit of £35 per week (£21.05 1st child, £13.95 2nd child)

    Can anyone explain what the child tax credits and child benefit (total £154 per week) is for if it isn't to feed your children?

    In total such a person is getting per year £12,688 benefits + £7,500 earnings (zero tax/NI) to give total of £20,188 cash in their pocket.

    And they can't buy their children lunch?

    Rent.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Yes indeed. Of all the bad news today, this is potentially the worst.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    SeanT said:

    Yes indeed. Of all the bad news today, this is potentially the worst.
    Oh fuck.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Andrew said:


    It would be interesting to get some kind of breakdown on the 233 new reported deaths. Are the majority now in care homes?

    The ONS has figures on location of covid deaths: care homes increased steadily to a peak of ~45%ish a month ago, then declined to around a third now. This is actual date of death so a more accurate picture than the daily numbers, but only until Jun5th.

    The guy below posts breakdowns of the daily figures:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1272898297267699714
    Oh? I can only assume in that case that those PHE numbers, which are the largest contributor, include a LOT of deaths where reporting has been significantly delayed then? Unless the percentage of people dying of this thing at home is rising, which doesn't seem logical.

    Hopefully once the backlog of delayed reporting has been cleared the daily totals will fall off a cliff.
    kinabalu said:

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    My sources tell me that testing is implying between 15% and 20% of people in London have antibodies. This is imo quite a good number. It's not the "iceberg" but it does seem as if there has been plenty of asymptomatic infection. That was a bad thing at the start of the epidemic since it hastened the spread - lots of people not knowing they have the virus and going around shedding it - but at a certain point it becomes a net good thing because of the dampening impact of significant 'community immunity' (what a lovely sounding term!). Perhaps we have passed that tipping point now.
    Daily Covid hospital deaths for the London region, June 1st onwards:

    9, 13, 30, 8, 10, 5, 4, 0, 17, 7, 3, 8, 3, 3, 5, 3

    The last date on which a double digit number was recorded was last Tuesday, June 9th. The population of London exceeds that of Scotland and Wales combined and, needless to say, lives at a vastly higher density, so that can't be anything other than encouraging?
    It’s extremely encouraging - be good to see some serious analysis on the London phenomenon. Especially since this was the pariah city on PB...

    ‘Dickheads in London’ would cause a second spike thanks to their canoodling and frolicking in the April warm spells, or so we were assured on PB.

    But those dogs never barked.

    Why not?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    MikeL said:

    Just went into tax credits calculator.

    Single parent, two children, working part-time earning £7,500 per year gets:

    Child tax credits £477.87 every 4 weeks (ie £119 per week)
    Working tax credits of £360.80 every 4 weeks (ie £90 per week)

    They will also get child benefit of £35 per week (£21.05 1st child, £13.95 2nd child)

    Can anyone explain what the child tax credits and child benefit (total £154 per week) is for if it isn't to feed your children?

    In total such a person is getting per year £12,688 benefits + £7,500 earnings (zero tax/NI) to give total of £20,188 cash in their pocket.

    And they can't buy their children lunch?

    If you think that these facts carry any weight in a world in which a right wing Tory clique is running the country and starving 1,300,000 children because they enjoy inflicting suffering on innocent small people you have another think coming.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    Just popping by. I won't be here long

    Judging by your usual behaviour while you're here I would say that's a very safe bet.
    Whipping up a race war. Really poor show.
    BOOOOO
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2020
    They seem to be taking absolutely no chances whatsoever, which is understandable, also given their success with dealing with the pandemic so far. Am I right in thinking this is actually about cases imported from Europe to a meat market by salmon, and they've actually only had cases, rather than deaths resulting from that, so far ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    MikeL said:

    Just went into tax credits calculator.

    Single parent, two children, working part-time earning £7,500 per year gets:

    Child tax credits £477.87 every 4 weeks (ie £119 per week)
    Working tax credits of £360.80 every 4 weeks (ie £90 per week)

    They will also get child benefit of £35 per week (£21.05 1st child, £13.95 2nd child)

    Can anyone explain what the child tax credits and child benefit (total £154 per week) is for if it isn't to feed your children?

    In total such a person is getting per year £12,688 benefits + £7,500 earnings (zero tax/NI) to give total of £20,188 cash in their pocket.

    And they can't buy their children lunch?

    Rent.
    Scandal more like.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited June 2020

    Daily Covid hospital deaths for the London region, June 1st onwards:

    9, 13, 30, 8, 10, 5, 4, 0, 17, 7, 3, 8, 3, 3, 5, 3

    The last date on which a double digit number was recorded was last Tuesday, June 9th. The population of London exceeds that of Scotland and Wales combined and, needless to say, lives at a vastly higher density, so that can't be anything other than encouraging?

    It does look all over bar the shouting here in London. At least for now. Caveat is there is still a lot of distancing atm. If this were to change the virus could get going again but I would foresee a second peak - of about one third the previous one - rather than a second wave. But that is just London. We have a nice bank of antibodies here. There is the rest of the country to think about. The rest of the world too - as much as we would prefer it not to exist, it does.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    They seem to be taking absolutely no chances whatsoever, which is understandable, also given their success with dealing with the pandemic so far. Am I right in thinking this is actually about cases imported from Europe to a meat market by salmon, and they've actually only had cases, rather than deaths resulting from that, so far ?
    Try not to be rational. Only hyperbole and hysteria will be tolerated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    Will they be spending 14 days in quarantine after using?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited June 2020
    Deleted. Messed up blockquote

    Sorry Sean T
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Scott_xP said:
    Will our special trade representative during the 2000s be rehired ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Andrew said:


    It would be interesting to get some kind of breakdown on the 233 new reported deaths. Are the majority now in care homes?

    The ONS has figures on location of covid deaths: care homes increased steadily to a peak of ~45%ish a month ago, then declined to around a third now. This is actual date of death so a more accurate picture than the daily numbers, but only until Jun5th.

    The guy below posts breakdowns of the daily figures:

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1272898297267699714
    Oh? I can only assume in that case that those PHE numbers, which are the largest contributor, include a LOT of deaths where reporting has been significantly delayed then? Unless the percentage of people dying of this thing at home is rising, which doesn't seem logical.

    Hopefully once the backlog of delayed reporting has been cleared the daily totals will fall off a cliff.
    kinabalu said:

    The virus is clearly fizzling out.

    Today's numbers are beyond microscopic by normal Tuesday standards – usually by far the worst day of the week by reporting day because of weekend lag.

    When is the government going to confirm a clear timetable for lockdown release?

    Shops are open but the hospitality sector is in dire need of certainty – it's the backbone of Britain and we need to salvage as much as we can from the summer and revive the British tourism sector quick sharp.

    My sources tell me that testing is implying between 15% and 20% of people in London have antibodies. This is imo quite a good number. It's not the "iceberg" but it does seem as if there has been plenty of asymptomatic infection. That was a bad thing at the start of the epidemic since it hastened the spread - lots of people not knowing they have the virus and going around shedding it - but at a certain point it becomes a net good thing because of the dampening impact of significant 'community immunity' (what a lovely sounding term!). Perhaps we have passed that tipping point now.
    Daily Covid hospital deaths for the London region, June 1st onwards:

    9, 13, 30, 8, 10, 5, 4, 0, 17, 7, 3, 8, 3, 3, 5, 3

    The last date on which a double digit number was recorded was last Tuesday, June 9th. The population of London exceeds that of Scotland and Wales combined and, needless to say, lives at a vastly higher density, so that can't be anything other than encouraging?
    From https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    Essentially, on weekends, reporting of non-hospital deaths pretty much stops.

    image
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Rashford is the new opposition. Landing blows where Starmer could not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
This discussion has been closed.