I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
Patel polls worse than Boris, Sunak polls better. If Boris goes the only viable alternative in government is Sunak.
However while Sunak would win back some Remainers from Starmer and Labour he would lose some Leavers to Farage and the Brexit Party
Yepp. But they shut on Friday. Not back til 19 August. Nine and half weeks fun, here we come! And the weather has been fantastic for two months. I’ve already got a cracking tan, and been swimming nearly every day for last month, sometimes twice a day.
Football summer-school, handball summercamp, sailing, the usual. The only deviation from the normal is no foreign trips, but the wife seems determined to drag me to Greece or Italy at the end of July, so we’ll see. I’m looking forward to my three domestic Swedish trips.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
Patel polls worse than Boris, Sunak polls better. If Boris goes the only viable alternative in government is Sunak.
However while Sunak would win back some Remainers from Starmer and Labour he would lose some Leavers to Farage and the Brexit Party
I thought Sunak supported Leave?
He did. One of the papers (STimes I think) reported that his since gone distinctly cool on the whole thing having looked at the economic catastrophe he is about to deal with.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
Patel polls worse than Boris, Sunak polls better. If Boris goes the only viable alternative in government is Sunak.
However while Sunak would win back some Remainers from Starmer and Labour he would lose some Leavers to Farage and the Brexit Party
I thought Sunak supported Leave?
I suspect HYUFD is thinking racial here: the liberally inclined Remainers would warm to a party leader from the ethnic minorities; Leavers would be more queasy. I'd like to think this isn't the case however.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
Patel polls worse than Boris, Sunak polls better. If Boris goes the only viable alternative in government is Sunak.
However while Sunak would win back some Remainers from Starmer and Labour he would lose some Leavers to Farage and the Brexit Party
I thought Sunak supported Leave?
He did. One of the papers (STimes I think) reported that his since gone distinctly cool on the whole thing having looked at the economic catastrophe he is about to deal with.
Sunak is also more likely to do a soft Brexit deal with the EU and less likely to back WTO terms Brexit than Boris or Patel
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
As Sunil said. He did demonstrably better than Cameron and May managed in GEs, had a big hand in winning the referendum, won 2/2 Mayoralties, is a well regarded journalist and author. Women find him attractive
Where did it all go wrong Mr Best?
I think you missed the 'Tribalism aside' bit. Yes, your party has had political success under him (was that luck or good management?) but I was trying to dig a bit deeper. (His merits as a journalist, author and lothario are probably up for debate.)
I didn't miss it at all, I am not a Tory.
I voted against him when he ran for London Mayor, and bet against him because I thought he was a buffoon. I voted Tory in December at the last minute because they were the only ones who were going to respect the referendum result, it is ridiculous to call them "my party", it turned my stomach to do it. I am just capable of being able to judge people on their record, and electorally he has a fantastic one.
It is you who cannot see things without bias. The things I stated that he is good at are demonstrably true, whether you like him or not.
My apologies. But (to me at least) you do come across as one of the most tribal Tories on here.
Anyone who reaches the top of the tree in their chosen profession is entitled to think they meet the standard of "any good" I reckon, whether you agree with them or not. Starmer chose to be a QC, became one and then became DPP. He went into politics and became leader of one of the two major parties. So even if he never became PM, I don't think it would be right to question if he was any good. If my son does half as much I would be very proud.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
What I want to know is whether we are now better at treating the disease? Have survival chances for those infected improved?
I think that treatment has improved over the last three months, but it is hard to be certain as diagnosis is much better. Mild cases are now in the figures, thereby shifting the denominator too.
I've posted repeatedly that regardless of the froth social distancing means that chunks of normality cannot resume - hospitality and entertainment sectors are screwed, but most importantly so it education.
My eldest son has decided to defer university to 2021. His first choice university emailing him to withdraw their guarantee of accomodation because they don't know how much capacity they will have or how they will operate was the final straw.
My other two kids haven't been to school since March. We are lucky - my wife is a student TA and we have laptops, so they do school work. Millions don't with so many schools full of seriously deprived kids who never mind not doing work aren't getting all the other support they get from school like food and sanctuary.
2m or 1m social distancing means kids do not go back to school full-time. The longer this goes on the more of a disaster this is for our children. My daughter was 9 yesterday, we organised her best friend to come for a play date - they hadn't seen each other- or any of their class mates - for 3 months. That is forever to young children.
A plan to move kids into Nightingale schools is urgently required. That bumbling twat can't keep dodging his responsibilities and making stupid decisions for headlines. Man up, accept the challenge, let our kids have a safe education.
It seems the most sensible strategy for Labour & by extension Starmer right now is the "never get in the way of your enemy when they are making a mistake" one.
There’s no upside for e.g. trying to change anything about Brexit for instance - the Conservative government has a huge majority & a mandate to deliver. Best to let them get on with it & completely own the consequences. Once we get into 2021/2 & the actual economic effects of Brexit have become clearer (whatever they turn out to be: not trying to take any sides here) - then the voters who leant their votes to Johnson in order to “get Brexit done” will be back in play. If Brexit goes badly that just makes the job easier, but it isn’t a requirement.
Same goes for the pandemic. The government has been intent on making a hash of dealing with it, so best to stay out of the way since there’s not much that can be done directly. The best option for Labour is sticking the government with the consequences in the minds of the population.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
Will we ever be free of Farage and his populist poison?
I think most countries have a nasty right wing populist party with a significant support base. Why shouldn't we?
Indeed, Canada and the Republic of Ireland are probably the only exceptions to that at the moment in the West
You've never heard of Sinn Fein then? Mildly welfarist in social policy (as was Hitler) but otherwise standard, populist, authoritarian, ethnocentric neo-fascism, with the classic worship of violence and guns
Sinn Fein is now populist far left, pro immigration and pro socialism, not populist far right
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
As Sunil said. He did demonstrably better than Cameron and May managed in GEs, had a big hand in winning the referendum, won 2/2 Mayoralties, is a well regarded journalist and author. Women find him attractive
Where did it all go wrong Mr Best?
I think you missed the 'Tribalism aside' bit. Yes, your party has had political success under him (was that luck or good management?) but I was trying to dig a bit deeper. (His merits as a journalist, author and lothario are probably up for debate.)
I didn't miss it at all, I am not a Tory.
I voted against him when he ran for London Mayor, and bet against him because I thought he was a buffoon. I voted Tory in December at the last minute because they were the only ones who were going to respect the referendum result, it is ridiculous to call them "my party", it turned my stomach to do it. I am just capable of being able to judge people on their record, and electorally he has a fantastic one.
It is you who cannot see things without bias. The things I stated that he is good at are demonstrably true, whether you like him or not.
My apologies. But (to me at least) you do come across as one of the most tribal Tories on here.
Anyone who reaches the top of the tree in their chosen profession is entitled to think they meet the standard of "any good" I reckon, whether you agree with them or not. Starmer chose to be a QC, became one and then became DPP. He went into politics and became leader of one of the two major parties. So even if he never became PM, I don't think it would be right to question if he was any good. If my son does half as much I would be very proud.
I think that's rather circular reasoning: someone who gets to the top of their profession is demonstrably good because they've reached the top of their profession. Sir Fred Goodwin, for example, ran the biggest bank on the planet. You couldn't have a more brilliant career, yet he almost destroyed the British economy. What gives?
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. And I don't believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a when than an if.
The problem there is that Starmer doesn't share their values and doesn't seem interested in pretending that he does.
Though if Starmer did reach Downing Street he'd have the joys of implementing 'export or starve' because you can be sure Boris and Sunak will have spent every penny which is available and then a whole load more.
I don't mean the parochialism and xenophobia, I mean the aspiration for higher living standards and better public services. You must encourage the best and appeal to the best. I think Starmer will be well placed to do this once the shine has worn off the gaudy twinset of "Boris" the man and "Brexit" the mis-sold dream.
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
The its OK to beat a suspected Nazi type narrative is even more dangerous than its ok for a mob to pull a statue down. All law breakers need to be condemned and punished, otherwise we end up with every weekend of EDL vs anti-EDL battles on our streets.
2m or 1m social distancing means kids do not go back to school.
A point which cannot be emphasised enough. This is not caused by teachers or Unions. It is a function of lack of physical space. And hygiene facilities.
A plan to move kids into Nightingale schools is urgently required.
It is. This also requires more teachers back in the profession.
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. I do not believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a 'when' than an 'if'.
1. The 'red-wallers' aren't the naive dupes you take them for. And the fact you see them that way probably indicates that they won't be returning to the warm embrace of people who think like you any time soon. They weren't persuaded that Boris shared their values, they voted for him in preference to a party that clearly despised their values. That doesn't look like it will change any time soon, but Kier accepting Brexit was, in fairness, a start. 2. You have no idea whether Brexit will make anyone's life worse. I appreciate you'll have read a thousand editorials confidently predicting economic armageddon, but it's always a mistake believing one's own publicity.
I'm saying they will NOT get fooled again. I have a reservoir of respect for joe average despite being so far from average myself.
This is also the core reason why I am close to certain that Trump is doomed this year.
As for Brexit not helping them materially - this seems a given to me. I just cannot see how it can possibly be otherwise.
And I am saying they didn't get fooled.
Here's how it can be otherwise - the envisaged drawbacks make a marginal difference, more than offset by the envisaged benefits combined with Government activity accompanying the change that would have been difficult had we still been members.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Will we ever be free of Farage and his populist poison?
I think most countries have a nasty right wing populist party with a significant support base. Why shouldn't we?
Indeed, Canada and the Republic of Ireland are probably the only exceptions to that at the moment in the West
And Scotland.
No, the Brexit Party got 15% of the vote in Scotland last year in the European Parliament elections, about the same average percentage the populist far right got across Europe in those elections
Tribalism aside, can anyone really say, with hand on heart, that Boris Johnson is any good? If so, how?
As Sunil said. He did demonstrably better than Cameron and May managed in GEs, had a big hand in winning the referendum, won 2/2 Mayoralties, is a well regarded journalist and author. Women find him attractive
Where did it all go wrong Mr Best?
I think you missed the 'Tribalism aside' bit. Yes, your party has had political success under him (was that luck or good management?) but I was trying to dig a bit deeper. (His merits as a journalist, author and lothario are probably up for debate.)
I didn't miss it at all, I am not a Tory.
I voted against him when he ran for London Mayor, and bet against him because I thought he was a buffoon. I voted Tory in December at the last minute because they were the only ones who were going to respect the referendum result, it is ridiculous to call them "my party", it turned my stomach to do it. I am just capable of being able to judge people on their record, and electorally he has a fantastic one.
It is you who cannot see things without bias. The things I stated that he is good at are demonstrably true, whether you like him or not.
My apologies. But (to me at least) you do come across as one of the most tribal Tories on here.
Anyone who reaches the top of the tree in their chosen profession is entitled to think they meet the standard of "any good" I reckon, whether you agree with them or not. Starmer chose to be a QC, became one and then became DPP. He went into politics and became leader of one of the two major parties. So even if he never became PM, I don't think it would be right to question if he was any good. If my son does half as much I would be very proud.
I think that's rather circular reasoning: someone who gets to the top of their profession is demonstrably good because they've reached the top of their profession. Sir Fred Goodwin, for example, ran the biggest bank on the planet. You couldn't have a more brilliant career, yet he almost destroyed the British economy. What gives?
I dont know much about his ability so cant comment, but even people who are very good make mistakes that they are remembered for. David Seaman was one of England & Arsenal's greatest ever goalkeepers, but he is remembered for mistakes that meant him getting lobbed twice from long range and losing important games for club and country. In the main, I am comfortable saying people who reach the top of their tree in their chosen profession are quite talented
We urgently needed hospital capacity. A plea to bring in anyone with medical qualifications and vast overflow facilities built. It was needed to protect our physical health. We now need to do the same for education. We cannot abandon our children to the virus. They need education. They need their friends. And for too many they need a hot meal, safety and security.
A class size 15 means we need two teachers for every class - impossible. And schools don't have flexible walls to socially distance but accommodate all. Yet it could be done - we just need overflow schools. Refit community centres. Sports facilities. Empty offices. Anywhere that can be turned into oversized classrooms. Get our kids back to school safely.
What angers the piss out of me is that the sacked liar we have as an Education Secretary and the Corbynite moron that shadows him haven't said a bloody word about trying to find a solution. Instead Wiliarson went after the teachers like the guidelines published by his department are their fault. Yes people want to shop and drink. How about having kids not losing the ability to socially develop and learn? That is more important.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
The its OK to beat a suspected Nazi type narrative is even more dangerous than its ok for a mob to pull a statue down. All law breakers need to be condemned and punished, otherwise we end up with every weekend of EDL vs anti-EDL battles on our streets.
The mad Remainery left has reached the stage where it is justifying brutal racist beatings of random white people, by large black gangs, because it is "part of a campaign of equal rights for all"
My God. Dear sweet Holy Jesus
"Both the general law and its Gresham’s corollary point, in contemporary circumstances, towards the resort to physical violence, in the form of firearms or high explosive, as being so probable as to be predicted with virtual certainty. The experience of the last decade and more, all round the world, shows that acts of violence, however apparently irrational or inappropriate their targets, precipitate a frenzied search on the part of the society attacked to discover and remedy more and more grievances, real or imaginary, among those from the violence is supposed to emanate or on whose behalf it is supposed to be exercised. Those commanding a position of political leverage would then be superhuman if they could refrain from pointing to the acts of terrorism and, while condemning them, declaring that further and faster concessions and grants of privilege are the only means to avoid such acts being repeated on a rising scale. We know that those who thus argue will always find a ready hearing. This is what produces the gearing effect of terrorism in the contemporary world, yielding huge results from acts of violence perpetrated by minimal numbers. It is not, I repeat again and again, that the mass of a particular population are violently or criminally disposed. Far from it; that population soon becomes itself the prisoner of the violence and machinations of an infinitely small minority among it. Just a few thugs, a few shots, a few bombs at the right place and time—and that is enough for disproportionate consequences to follow.
Differentiation by color, where it exists, is an enormously important factor in this context, effective in a number of ways which all operate in the same direction. It is, first, a permanent and involuntary uniform, which performs all and more of the functions of a uniform in warfare, distinguishing one side from the other, friend from foe, and making it possible to see at a glance what is happening, where to render assistance, and where to attack. This is why those who have sought to organize the domination of a majority by a minority have commonly, where possible, used insignia and means of mutual recognition to increase the potency of small numbers."
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. I do not believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a 'when' than an 'if'.
1. The 'red-wallers' aren't the naive dupes you take them for. And the fact you see them that way probably indicates that they won't be returning to the warm embrace of people who think like you any time soon. They weren't persuaded that Boris shared their values, they voted for him in preference to a party that clearly despised their values. That doesn't look like it will change any time soon, but Kier accepting Brexit was, in fairness, a start. 2. You have no idea whether Brexit will make anyone's life worse. I appreciate you'll have read a thousand editorials confidently predicting economic armageddon, but it's always a mistake believing one's own publicity.
I'm saying they will NOT get fooled again. I have a reservoir of respect for joe average despite being so far from average myself.
This is also the core reason why I am close to certain that Trump is doomed this year.
As for Brexit not helping them materially - this seems a given to me. I just cannot see how it can possibly be otherwise.
And I am saying they didn't get fooled.
Here's how it can be otherwise - the envisaged drawbacks make a marginal difference, more than offset by the envisaged benefits combined with Government activity accompanying the change that would have been difficult had we still been members.
There aren't any tangible benefits, Lucky. Never have been. It's ethereal and about identity. It's all in the mind. It's a feeling - "We've got our country back" - "We've regained control" - and it will wear off in no time. You just watch.
Still running significant number of new positive cases every day.
Pillar 2 uptick, but it's quite noisy because the numbers of tests going out occasionally surge.
Pillar 2 numbers look stubborn.
I think it may be more useful to look at the trend by specimen date (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate). Note this only applies to Pillar 1 (NHS labs; so staff and those admitted to hospital primarily). This is showing a fairly consistent decline week-on-week (e.g., ~20% down last week from the week before).
It would be useful if the Pillar 2 data were available by specimen date (I suspect there is a more substantial delay there, especially for posted samples: 2 days for return posting following the sample being provided, plus 2-3 days for processing, with longer delays depending upon when the post is collected etc.). It would also be good to break the latter down by location (e.g., the number taken from nursing homes would be interesting).
But if we assume that the number testing positive in hospital is (and has been throughout the epidemic) roughly proportional to the amount of infection in the community (this may not be true due to shielding etc. of course with those likely to have a serious infection being less likely to get infected now) then the Pillar 1 numbers by specimen date might be most useful way of assessing the progress of the pandemic.
Will we ever be free of Farage and his populist poison?
I think most countries have a nasty right wing populist party with a significant support base. Why shouldn't we?
Indeed, Canada and the Republic of Ireland are probably the only exceptions to that at the moment in the West
And Scotland.
Haven't you got those orange Order wierdos?
It has, but more pertinently it has the SNP. The SNP certainly has enough aggressive boors to qualify as nasty, it is populist, and it enjoys significant support. Whether it is 'right wing' or not is debatable. It is not racist in the traditional sense, which is to its credit, but the views of many within it of the English, and of English immigration into Scotland, are ripe to say the least.
Does simply making it one metre make schools "back to normal"? Much magical thinking here.
I just don't get it. This is the same farce as we had with masks.
Masks are really bad no they are really good!
One metre is deadly no it's fine!
WTF are they doing
The problem, as well as the confused messaging you allude to, is that the physical infrastructure is simply not there in most schools. The classrooms are too small. So you need smaller class sizes. But there aren't enough teachers. Or extra classrooms. There aren't enough toilets or washing facilities. The corridors are too narrow for kids to distance. Etc, etc. All of these still apply whether one or two metres. None of these are the fault of Unions who are pointing out these issues. Nor are they insurmountable. But the solutions all necessitate that they will not "return to normal" until there is a vaccine.
OR we accept that there will be an ongoing and significant level of infection, of a new disease which kills 1% of those it affects, and is fairly nasty with 5-20%
The government should maybe just prepare us for a new and nastier amount of risk, so as to save the economy, and our kids' brains
Well yes of course. That is the other alternative. However, the government seems to want it both ways.
it's time to choose the hard nosed Swedish model. People are going to die. There is a new disease. We have no choice. Destroying the economy, and the education of a million kids, is even worse.
Difficult in the healthandsafety culture we've created.
Alongside the blame culture and the compensation culture.
There is no shortage of people who would rather destroy the economy and the education of a million kids than have the right boxes unticked.
I don't think they have any idea what is about to hit us, economically.
A 25% fall in GDP..... SO FAR
Well its pretty much a certainty GDP will rise from here so not sure why SO FAR is in captitals apart from more attempts to spread fear?
The decline could continue late in Q2/Q3 we just don't know.
Then there is the possibility of a chain reaction of debt and default, as consumers refuse to spend and commuters refuse to commute: city centres (esp London) hollow out and the Depression intensifies
And of course it is also possible we get a second wave and another attempted lockdown
So, yes, SO FAR is in capitals for a reason
Economic illiteracy to add to your piffles of blather.
OBR forecasts are a 27% increase in Q3 GDP. With the retail sector opening up it is impossible for GDP to fall from here, it is just a question of how much it goes up, my guess is 15-25%.
Still running significant number of new positive cases every day.
Pillar 2 uptick, but it's quite noisy because the numbers of tests going out occasionally surge.
Pillar 2 numbers look stubborn.
I think it may be more useful to look at the trend by specimen date (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate). Note this only applies to Pillar 1 (NHS labs; so staff and those admitted to hospital primarily). This is showing a fairly consistent decline week-on-week (e.g., ~20% down last week from the week before).
It would be useful if the Pillar 2 data were available by specimen date (I suspect there is a more substantial delay there, especially for posted samples: 2 days for return posting following the sample being provided, plus 2-3 days for processing, with longer delays depending upon when the post is collected etc.). It would also be good to break the latter down by location (e.g., the number taken from nursing homes would be interesting).
But if we assume that the number testing positive in hospital is (and has been throughout the epidemic) roughly proportional to the amount of infection in the community (this may not be true due to shielding etc. of course with those likely to have a serious infection being less likely to get infected now) then the Pillar 1 numbers by specimen date might be most useful way of assessing the progress of the pandemic.
Just for LOLs I plotted pillars 1,2,4 against cases -
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
We urgently needed hospital capacity. A plea to bring in anyone with medical qualifications and vast overflow facilities built. It was needed to protect our physical health. We now need to do the same for education. We cannot abandon our children to the virus. They need education. They need their friends. And for too many they need a hot meal, safety and security.
A class size 15 means we need two teachers for every class - impossible. And schools don't have flexible walls to socially distance but accommodate all. Yet it could be done - we just need overflow schools. Refit community centres. Sports facilities. Empty offices. Anywhere that can be turned into oversized classrooms. Get our kids back to school safely.
What angers the piss out of me is that the sacked liar we have as an Education Secretary and the Corbynite moron that shadows him haven't said a bloody word about trying to find a solution. Instead Wiliarson went after the teachers like the guidelines published by his department are their fault. Yes people want to shop and drink. How about having kids not losing the ability to socially develop and learn? That is more important.
Well said, maybe its not the answer (it feels like a good solution to me), but why isnt this even being discussed? We have loads of educated skilled people economically inactive, loads of unused buildings, and loads of kids needing an education - cant we do more than just home schooling and remote teaching?
Starmer has surprised on the upside. I didn't vote for him but I'm quite happy with him so far.
The big picture is that the election was won by persuading the Red Wallers that "Boris" shared their values and that he and his "Brexit" would improve their lives - but of course he doesn't and it won't. The opposite, in fact, in both cases.
To win again next time, therefore, the Cons must hope that the Who were talking out of their backsides. I do not believe they were - so I think Starmer is on his way to Downing St. It's more of a 'when' than an 'if'.
1. The 'red-wallers' aren't the naive dupes you take them for. And the fact you see them that way probably indicates that they won't be returning to the warm embrace of people who think like you any time soon. They weren't persuaded that Boris shared their values, they voted for him in preference to a party that clearly despised their values. That doesn't look like it will change any time soon, but Kier accepting Brexit was, in fairness, a start. 2. You have no idea whether Brexit will make anyone's life worse. I appreciate you'll have read a thousand editorials confidently predicting economic armageddon, but it's always a mistake believing one's own publicity.
I'm saying they will NOT get fooled again. I have a reservoir of respect for joe average despite being so far from average myself.
This is also the core reason why I am close to certain that Trump is doomed this year.
As for Brexit not helping them materially - this seems a given to me. I just cannot see how it can possibly be otherwise.
And I am saying they didn't get fooled.
Here's how it can be otherwise - the envisaged drawbacks make a marginal difference, more than offset by the envisaged benefits combined with Government activity accompanying the change that would have been difficult had we still been members.
There aren't any tangible benefits, Lucky. Never have been. It's ethereal and about identity. It's all in the mind. It's a feeling - "We've got our country back" - We've regained control" - and it will wear off in no time. You just watch.
You undermine your case when you say silly things like that. The EU carries a membership fee. We can argue about the amount written on the side of a bus, and whether the saving will be dwarved by the disastrous loss of the membership, but it is a real and tangible benefit, and just forgetting it exists suggests you are stewing in your own hyperbole rather than maintaining a grip on the facts.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
But if we assume that the number testing positive in hospital is (and has been throughout the epidemic) roughly proportional to the amount of infection in the community (this may not be true due to shielding etc. of course with those likely to have a serious infection being less likely to get infected now) then the Pillar 1 numbers by specimen date might be most useful way of assessing the progress of the pandemic.
My concern there is that Pillar1 figures might be disproportionately a testing picture for NHS staff now. They're testing as many people as ever, 21/22k or so, but the fraction of those that are patients must be rather small.
~6 weeks back, NHS staff were perhaps more in the drivethrough section of pillar2, given that pillar1 was running at near max capacity (now it's 65% or something, and even that only because they're using the spare capacity to double test most).
I sense that I've called this one earlier and righter than I've ever called anything.
Trump is utterly fucked and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
I'm curious: if he's heading for a stone-cold hammering, might he seek an excuse and withdraw late? For an extreme narcissist that would fit.
Mmm, I wonder. It would be a result, I guess, main thing being that he goes, but I do think the big rejection at the polls is needed, so I personally would be disappointed with that.
1.07 on Betfair to be the nominee so punters don't quite think it's a wrap.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
For working class Leavers it won't be, ending free movement was the main reason they voted Leave
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
The its OK to beat a suspected Nazi type narrative is even more dangerous than its ok for a mob to pull a statue down. All law breakers need to be condemned and punished, otherwise we end up with every weekend of EDL vs anti-EDL battles on our streets.
All violence should be condemned, Im not sure anyone mainstream is saying differently. For the avoidance of doubt I condemn violent attacks on EDL members just as much as I do police, BLM protestors or bystanders caught in the crossfire.
Vandalism and violence are not equivalents though. Dunt says vandalism, you read (or deliberately conflate) it as violence.
The law is not an absolute either. That anarchic rag, the Daily Telegraph estimated the average person breaks the law once a day, and that was in 2008, since then we have added tens of thousands of pages of new laws and redacted very little, so it will increased from then. The vast majority are never punished for their law breaking.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
We urgently needed hospital capacity. A plea to bring in anyone with medical qualifications and vast overflow facilities built. It was needed to protect our physical health. We now need to do the same for education. We cannot abandon our children to the virus. They need education. They need their friends. And for too many they need a hot meal, safety and security.
A class size 15 means we need two teachers for every class - impossible. And schools don't have flexible walls to socially distance but accommodate all. Yet it could be done - we just need overflow schools. Refit community centres. Sports facilities. Empty offices. Anywhere that can be turned into oversized classrooms. Get our kids back to school safely.
What angers the piss out of me is that the sacked liar we have as an Education Secretary and the Corbynite moron that shadows him haven't said a bloody word about trying to find a solution. Instead Wiliarson went after the teachers like the guidelines published by his department are their fault. Yes people want to shop and drink. How about having kids not losing the ability to socially develop and learn? That is more important.
Well said, maybe its not the answer (it feels like a good solution to me), but why isnt this even being discussed? We have loads of educated skilled people economically inactive, loads of unused buildings, and loads of kids needing an education - cant we do more than just home schooling and remote teaching?
Probably better to do a more temporal shift , rather than open the doors to just anyone. Split classes in half. Some do 0800 -1300, the others 1400-1900 from September.
Until then make school optional, as truancy is impossible to enforce at present. Probably find more or less the right numbers want to come for the next six weeks.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
Patel polls worse than Boris, Sunak polls better. If Boris goes the only viable alternative in government is Sunak.
However while Sunak would win back some Remainers from Starmer and Labour he would lose some Leavers to Farage and the Brexit Party
I thought Sunak supported Leave?
I suspect HYUFD is thinking racial here: the liberally inclined Remainers would warm to a party leader from the ethnic minorities; Leavers would be more queasy. I'd like to think this isn't the case however.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
For working class Leavers it won't be, ending free movement was the main reason they voted Leave
Exactly. That's all you have to do. The rest can be parked indefinitely.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
If what you say were true it would be an issue. But there 100 arrests yesterday and doubtless there will have been many more today as cctv is trawled through. The smartphone makes these things much easier to prosecute.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
For working class Leavers it won't be, ending free movement was the main reason they voted Leave
It would be a mistake to interpret a protest vote against immigration as being specifically about free movement and the concept of EU citizenship. Listen to the infamous vox pops from Barnsley.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
For working class Leavers it won't be, ending free movement was the main reason they voted Leave
You are making a very big assumption there. I do not expect Brexit to feature any more prominently in 2024 than EU membership or the Iraq War - did in 2010. Those voters will have moved on - indeed many have probably already done so. The endless parliamentary shenanigans had much to do with how such people voted in 2019. That will no longer be relevant.
Will we ever be free of Farage and his populist poison?
I think most countries have a nasty right wing populist party with a significant support base. Why shouldn't we?
Indeed, Canada and the Republic of Ireland are probably the only exceptions to that at the moment in the West
And Scotland.
Haven't you got those orange Order wierdos?
It has, but more pertinently it has the SNP. The SNP certainly has enough aggressive boors to qualify as nasty, it is populist, and it enjoys significant support. Whether it is 'right wing' or not is debatable. It is not racist in the traditional sense, which is to its credit, but the views of many within it of the English, and of English immigration into Scotland, are ripe to say the least.
Lucky in no way is the SNP right wing , quite the opposite and far too left wing. The bully boy unionist/LOL are a disgrace to Scotland. Independence supporters have gatherings up to 20000+ and never an arrest or a bit of trouble. You never get a unionist/LOL gathering without arrests.
We urgently needed hospital capacity. A plea to bring in anyone with medical qualifications and vast overflow facilities built. It was needed to protect our physical health. We now need to do the same for education. We cannot abandon our children to the virus. They need education. They need their friends. And for too many they need a hot meal, safety and security.
A class size 15 means we need two teachers for every class - impossible. And schools don't have flexible walls to socially distance but accommodate all. Yet it could be done - we just need overflow schools. Refit community centres. Sports facilities. Empty offices. Anywhere that can be turned into oversized classrooms. Get our kids back to school safely.
What angers the piss out of me is that the sacked liar we have as an Education Secretary and the Corbynite moron that shadows him haven't said a bloody word about trying to find a solution. Instead Wiliarson went after the teachers like the guidelines published by his department are their fault. Yes people want to shop and drink. How about having kids not losing the ability to socially develop and learn? That is more important.
Well said, maybe its not the answer (it feels like a good solution to me), but why isnt this even being discussed? We have loads of educated skilled people economically inactive, loads of unused buildings, and loads of kids needing an education - cant we do more than just home schooling and remote teaching?
Probably better to do a more temporal shift , rather than open the doors to just anyone. Split classes in half. Some do 0800 -1300, the others 1400-1900 from September.
Until then make school optional, as truancy is impossible to enforce at present. Probably find more or less the right numbers want to come for the next six weeks.
As the moment "just anyone" is teaching the kids at home. Kids with parents who dont bother or dont have a good education themselves suffer the most.
Surely it is better that the "just anyone" can be someone teaching 10 kids perhaps in a subject they did at A level or related to their degree? Which would also free up time and space for the professional teachers to teach the rest.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
I think the police now do better arrest tactics. After the Duggan riots there was a lot of doorknocking in the early mornings for weeks after, and quite a few convictions.
The police tactics at these events seem to be contain and disrupt violence, and to gather evidence for later arrests and conviction. Arrests in the heat of the moment are likely to inflame matters.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
For working class Leavers it won't be, ending free movement was the main reason they voted Leave
It would be a mistake to interpret a protest vote against immigration as being specifically about free movement and the concept of EU citizenship. Listen to the infamous vox pops from Barnsley.
But if we assume that the number testing positive in hospital is (and has been throughout the epidemic) roughly proportional to the amount of infection in the community (this may not be true due to shielding etc. of course with those likely to have a serious infection being less likely to get infected now) then the Pillar 1 numbers by specimen date might be most useful way of assessing the progress of the pandemic.
My concern there is that Pillar1 figures might be disproportionately a testing picture for NHS staff now. They're testing as many people as ever, 21/22k or so, but the fraction of those that are patients must be rather small.
~6 weeks back, NHS staff were perhaps more in the drivethrough section of pillar2, given that pillar1 was running at near max capacity (now it's 65% or something, and even that only because they're using the spare capacity to double test most).
That's definitely possible. Although if there were a rise in cases in the community you might still expect to see an increase in the number of positive tests in hospitals, which at least to date doesn't seem to be happening.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
I think the police now do better arrest tactics. After the Duggan riots there was a lot of doorknocking in the early mornings for weeks after, and quite a few convictions.
The police tactics at these events seem to be contain and disrupt violence, and to gather evidence for later arrests and conviction. Arrests in the heat of the moment are likely to inflame matters.
It both inflames and distracts the police. I think Avon police said last week that every arrest consumes the immediate time of 4 police officers which in the middle of a march is a waste of resources. Far better to make sure you have the evidence and photos and grab the culprits later.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
For working class Leavers it won't be, ending free movement was the main reason they voted Leave
It would be a mistake to interpret a protest vote against immigration as being specifically about free movement and the concept of EU citizenship. Listen to the infamous vox pops from Barnsley.
I don't see Farage returning as a major force post- Brexit. Any party he led would be deprived of the oxygen of publicity readily provided by the EU parliamentary elections.
He's betting on a second wave and a culture war. Quite frankly, he might be right
The Opposition would be much more likely to be the beneficiary of any second wave. Were Corbyn still in place, Farage might pull in some support - but not now. A culture war also has too much of a BNP smell to have potential to reach far.
Starmer's big problem is that, while people may be warming to him, people still view his party as containing a bunch of hard-left activists and MPs who would ultimately be directing what a Labour Government would do (the implication is that people don't believe Starmer controls his party: I think that is fair enough). This is why you had Starmer far outpolling the Labour party with YouGov as to how people view their respective suitabilities for Government.
It is why I disagree with the view that it is leadership ratings that will determine the outcome of a General Election. That only works if people believe the party is in line with the leader and their views. It is clear people are sceptical. Unless Starmer shows he is willing to go to town against MPs like Dawn Butler, Naz Shah and the rest of them who like to proclaim how racism is the #1 defining issue in the country and antifa are saints vs those nasty right wing thugs etc etc, many Red Wall voters will not come back to Labour.
As for the Tories, I think Boris is gone next year. He's tired, he's got a new kid, he is falling behind in the ratings and the UK will have cut its ties with the EU, which will give him an opportunity to go out on a "high". Most importantly, though, I don't think he has the heart for fighting a culture war, which will be the defining feature of politics for the next few years, and being a posh, white bloke, he is at a slight disadvantage. When the penny drops for him (if it hasn't) as to the political mood of the next few years, he will be out.
I'm also sceptical, in this scenario, Rishi Sunak is the front-runner. Yes, he's nice and done a good job so far with the economy but, as someone said to me the only day, he comes across as a bit wet and lacking steel. I think who the Conservatives (MPs and activists) will decide they will need to fight back in the culture wars is someone aggressive and willing to take the fight to the left. So - actionable idea - I'm going for Priti Patel as the next PM (35/1 last time I looked on Ladbrokes). Her statement at the dispatch box and how she handled the letter from the Labour MPs on race shows she is not afraid of a fight and that is likely to appeal.
I agree with all your comments re- the Tories - including what you have said in relation to Priti Patel. On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970! I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
Corbyn got Leavers in 2017 who then voted for Boris in 2019.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
I disagree and expect Brexit to be far less salient in 2024 even when compared with 2017 - never mind 2019.
For working class Leavers it won't be, ending free movement was the main reason they voted Leave
You are making a very big assumption there. I do not expect Brexit to feature any more prominently in 2024 than EU membership or the Iraq War - did in 2010. Those voters will have moved on - indeed many have probably already done so. The endless parliamentary shenanigans had much to do with how such people voted in 2019. That will no longer be relevant.
By 2010 Brown had already withdrawn British forces from Iraq.
If free movement is ended by 2024 but Starmer says he would restore it that would have been like Cameron saying he would send troops back to Iraq in 2010
Will we ever be free of Farage and his populist poison?
I think most countries have a nasty right wing populist party with a significant support base. Why shouldn't we?
Indeed, Canada and the Republic of Ireland are probably the only exceptions to that at the moment in the West
And Scotland.
Haven't you got those orange Order wierdos?
It has, but more pertinently it has the SNP. The SNP certainly has enough aggressive boors to qualify as nasty, it is populist, and it enjoys significant support. Whether it is 'right wing' or not is debatable. It is not racist in the traditional sense, which is to its credit, but the views of many within it of the English, and of English immigration into Scotland, are ripe to say the least.
Lucky in no way is the SNP right wing , quite the opposite and far too left wing. The bully boy unionist/LOL are a disgrace to Scotland. Independence supporters have gatherings up to 20000+ and never an arrest or a bit of trouble. You never get a unionist/LOL gathering without arrests.
I've lived here for a while now Malc, I've seen a pissed up guy start on someone for having an English accent on the train (neatly diffused when the guy turned out to be Welsh), and been at trade shows representing a Scottish company when nationalists have spouted forth about 'building a wall' before I opened my mouth and the English accent popped out. I'm not saying the nastiness is endemic, but there's also no point in pretending it's not there. The SNP doesn't need to dislike immigrants because the 'other' that they blame everything on is us.
That said, I have had many of my own assumptions challenged since I came here, and I am definitely a less arrogant and glib and hopefully a better and more understanding person than I was when I arrived.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
I think the police now do better arrest tactics. After the Duggan riots there was a lot of doorknocking in the early mornings for weeks after, and quite a few convictions.
The police tactics at these events seem to be contain and disrupt violence, and to gather evidence for later arrests and conviction. Arrests in the heat of the moment are likely to inflame matters.
Well thats good to hear.
Let's hope that a lot of the fuel for these violent protests was months of pent up frustration at being locked inside. Young men like to be out and about, and a lot of them like to fight too
We urgently needed hospital capacity. A plea to bring in anyone with medical qualifications and vast overflow facilities built. It was needed to protect our physical health. We now need to do the same for education. We cannot abandon our children to the virus. They need education. They need their friends. And for too many they need a hot meal, safety and security.
A class size 15 means we need two teachers for every class - impossible. And schools don't have flexible walls to socially distance but accommodate all. Yet it could be done - we just need overflow schools. Refit community centres. Sports facilities. Empty offices. Anywhere that can be turned into oversized classrooms. Get our kids back to school safely.
What angers the piss out of me is that the sacked liar we have as an Education Secretary and the Corbynite moron that shadows him haven't said a bloody word about trying to find a solution. Instead Wiliarson went after the teachers like the guidelines published by his department are their fault. Yes people want to shop and drink. How about having kids not losing the ability to socially develop and learn? That is more important.
Well said, maybe its not the answer (it feels like a good solution to me), but why isnt this even being discussed? We have loads of educated skilled people economically inactive, loads of unused buildings, and loads of kids needing an education - cant we do more than just home schooling and remote teaching?
Probably better to do a more temporal shift , rather than open the doors to just anyone. Split classes in half. Some do 0800 -1300, the others 1400-1900 from September.
Until then make school optional, as truancy is impossible to enforce at present. Probably find more or less the right numbers want to come for the next six weeks.
I am genuinely surprised to see you, as a very distinguished doctor, propose a course of action that would leave no time to clean the classrooms.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
I'll leave you to work out who Keith Palmer was and why there was a monument to him!
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
I think the police now do better arrest tactics. After the Duggan riots there was a lot of doorknocking in the early mornings for weeks after, and quite a few convictions.
The police tactics at these events seem to be contain and disrupt violence, and to gather evidence for later arrests and conviction. Arrests in the heat of the moment are likely to inflame matters.
Well thats good to hear.
Let's hope that a lot of the fuel for these violent protests was months of pent up frustration at being locked inside. Young men like to be out and about, and a lot of them like to fight too
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
Is 'I hate Donald Trump but' the new 'I'm not racist but' Should we reassure people that we hate him before being even handed about him?
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
On the other hand it does look like he has an issue with the right side of his body.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
Is 'I hate Donald Trump but' the new 'I'm not racist but' Should we reassure people that we hate him before being even handed about him?
Unfortunately, if you don’t, say anything about him that’s not actually calling for his head on a pole and you are assumed to be a supporter.
I had that in 2016. When I criticised Clinton as a weak candidate who was arrogant, lazy, reckless and vulnerable (not on here) I was accused of being a Trump supporter.
I was right, as it happens, although the results have given me no pleasure.
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
I agree. I am THE TrumpToaster but I don't see much wrong with that.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
I think the police now do better arrest tactics. After the Duggan riots there was a lot of doorknocking in the early mornings for weeks after, and quite a few convictions.
The police tactics at these events seem to be contain and disrupt violence, and to gather evidence for later arrests and conviction. Arrests in the heat of the moment are likely to inflame matters.
Well thats good to hear.
Let's hope that a lot of the fuel for these violent protests was months of pent up frustration at being locked inside. Young men like to be out and about, and a lot of them like to fight too
I would liken Starmer to any new English football manager.
They come in with huge hopes on their shoulders that they just HAVE to be better than the last guy.
And then they have to face Germany.
Let's see how Starmer acquits himself when the report into endemic anti-semitism in the Labour Party gets published. It's not like he hasn't had years in the Shadow Cabinet to prepare his answers.
I would liken Starmer to any new English football manager.
They come in with huge hopes on their shoulders that they just HAVE to be better than the last guy.
And then they have to face Germany.
Let's see how Starmer acquits himself when the report into endemic anti-semitism in the Labour Party gets published. It's not like he hasn't had years in the Shadow Cabinet to prepare his answers.
You assume that the media care about that any more.
I would liken Starmer to any new English football manager.
They come in with huge hopes on their shoulders that they just HAVE to be better than the last guy.
And then they have to face Germany.
Let's see how Starmer acquits himself when the report into endemic anti-semitism in the Labour Party gets published. It's not like he hasn't had years in the Shadow Cabinet to prepare his answers.
It’s going to be very awkward.
What Jennie Formby was thinking in compiling that internal report I do not know, but it was absolutely damning.
What’s even more bizarre is she seemed to think it was exculpatory.
THIS is incredible. Sky News caught in the most outrageous lie
A compilation of some of the violence by Black Lives Matter protesters at Waterloo Station - you can hear them chanting "fuck EDL". It speaks for itself.
Sky calmly says these are the "counter demonstrators, who came to defend statues"
I met the EDL, when they were doing their city marches a few years ago. What a bunch of total arseholes they were, rampaging through the city intimidating ordinary folk.
Absolute rotters, no doubt. Hoons and morons. But we have no idea who THESE guys are and of course no idea at all whether they are EDL.
All we know is that they were lone white men caught on their own in the wrong place and beaten near to death because they were white. The fact you can't bring yourself to condemn this, in even the most desultory way, speaks many many volumes
I condemn all mob violence, doesn't everyone?
And yet, you didn't. Your first reaction was to scoff at EDL, even as you watched people get beaten half to death
The EDL go to provoke mob violence, so condemning them is a reasonable place to start.
If a black man were beaten by a mob of whites they way that man was yesterday at Waterloo Station, and the only arrest, and only negative comments from the left and media concerned a black man having a piss up a wall when there are no public toilets open, no pubs, no restaurants, no hotels, nowhere to go, then we would have race riots even more quickly than we are going to now
I think the police now do better arrest tactics. After the Duggan riots there was a lot of doorknocking in the early mornings for weeks after, and quite a few convictions.
The police tactics at these events seem to be contain and disrupt violence, and to gather evidence for later arrests and conviction. Arrests in the heat of the moment are likely to inflame matters.
Well thats good to hear.
Let's hope that a lot of the fuel for these violent protests was months of pent up frustration at being locked inside. Young men like to be out and about, and a lot of them like to fight too
That's been a tactic for a long, long time.
Indeed, one of the complaints from various communities, is that the police come knocking on doors six months after a demo, with a warrant. It is perceived, by some, as using a past action as tool, "when they want to get someone".
Comments
PM - Sunak
Chancellor - Hunt
Foreign Secretary - Tugendhat
Home Secretary - Patel
https://twitter.com/EmmaLBentley/status/1272128138806468608?s=19
But nobody seems to have noticed - everyone just looking at death numbers.
If so, he deserves to have more than 30 followers.
My eldest son has decided to defer university to 2021. His first choice university emailing him to withdraw their guarantee of accomodation because they don't know how much capacity they will have or how they will operate was the final straw.
My other two kids haven't been to school since March. We are lucky - my wife is a student TA and we have laptops, so they do school work. Millions don't with so many schools full of seriously deprived kids who never mind not doing work aren't getting all the other support they get from school like food and sanctuary.
2m or 1m social distancing means kids do not go back to school full-time. The longer this goes on the more of a disaster this is for our children. My daughter was 9 yesterday, we organised her best friend to come for a play date - they hadn't seen each other- or any of their class mates - for 3 months. That is forever to young children.
A plan to move kids into Nightingale schools is urgently required. That bumbling twat can't keep dodging his responsibilities and making stupid decisions for headlines. Man up, accept the challenge, let our kids have a safe education.
There’s no upside for e.g. trying to change anything about Brexit for instance - the Conservative government has a huge majority & a mandate to deliver. Best to let them get on with it & completely own the consequences. Once we get into 2021/2 & the actual economic effects of Brexit have become clearer (whatever they turn out to be: not trying to take any sides here) - then the voters who leant their votes to Johnson in order to “get Brexit done” will be back in play. If Brexit goes badly that just makes the job easier, but it isn’t a requirement.
Same goes for the pandemic. The government has been intent on making a hash of dealing with it, so best to stay out of the way since there’s not much that can be done directly. The best option for Labour is sticking the government with the consequences in the minds of the population.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1271859388014383104?s=19
they also do actually kill people
I'm not sure Patel is that good at Home Secretary though.
(in Arkansas)
This summer is going to be like 1988 again, thousands of cars running around the M25 looking for the party!
I do agree with you that Johnson and Sunak will pursue a "scorched earth" policy as regards the public finances.
But there is always this -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory
Politicians of all stripes can pretend to believe in this in order to liberate themselves from fiscal restraint.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272182413314195456?s=20
Here's how it can be otherwise - the envisaged drawbacks make a marginal difference, more than offset by the envisaged benefits combined with Government activity accompanying the change that would have been difficult had we still been members.
I sense that I've called this one earlier and righter than I've ever called anything.
Trump is utterly fucked and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
God bless America. They have their issues - hence 2016 - but they are not Moron Nation.
On the whole, I also share your scepticism in respect of leadership ratings. I recall how poorly Ted Heath was rated in the late 60s even when his party was recording leads in excess of 25%. Wilson was far more popular - yet Heath did win in 1970!
I rather part company with your assessment of Labour today. In simple terms, I am not persuaded that Keir Starmer will fail to poll 41% across GB in 2024 - given that Corbyn managed precisely that in 2017.
A class size 15 means we need two teachers for every class - impossible. And schools don't have flexible walls to socially distance but accommodate all. Yet it could be done - we just need overflow schools. Refit community centres. Sports facilities. Empty offices. Anywhere that can be turned into oversized classrooms. Get our kids back to school safely.
What angers the piss out of me is that the sacked liar we have as an Education Secretary and the Corbynite moron that shadows him haven't said a bloody word about trying to find a solution. Instead Wiliarson went after the teachers like the guidelines published by his department are their fault. Yes people want to shop and drink. How about having kids not losing the ability to socially develop and learn? That is more important.
Differentiation by color, where it exists, is an enormously important factor in this context, effective in a number of ways which all operate in the same direction. It is, first, a permanent and involuntary uniform, which performs all and more of the functions of a uniform in warfare, distinguishing one side from the other, friend from foe, and making it possible to see at a glance what is happening, where to render assistance, and where to attack. This is why those who have sought to organize the domination of a majority by a minority have commonly, where possible, used insignia and means of mutual recognition to increase the potency of small numbers."
It would be useful if the Pillar 2 data were available by specimen date (I suspect there is a more substantial delay there, especially for posted samples: 2 days for return posting following the sample being provided, plus 2-3 days for processing, with longer delays depending upon when the post is collected etc.). It would also be good to break the latter down by location (e.g., the number taken from nursing homes would be interesting).
But if we assume that the number testing positive in hospital is (and has been throughout the epidemic) roughly proportional to the amount of infection in the community (this may not be true due to shielding etc. of course with those likely to have a serious infection being less likely to get infected now) then the Pillar 1 numbers by specimen date might be most useful way of assessing the progress of the pandemic.
OBR forecasts are a 27% increase in Q3 GDP. With the retail sector opening up it is impossible for GDP to fall from here, it is just a question of how much it goes up, my guess is 15-25%.
Starmer is unlikely to win them without promising not to restore free movement
~6 weeks back, NHS staff were perhaps more in the drivethrough section of pillar2, given that pillar1 was running at near max capacity (now it's 65% or something, and even that only because they're using the spare capacity to double test most).
1.07 on Betfair to be the nominee so punters don't quite think it's a wrap.
Vandalism and violence are not equivalents though. Dunt says vandalism, you read (or deliberately conflate) it as violence.
The law is not an absolute either. That anarchic rag, the Daily Telegraph estimated the average person breaks the law once a day, and that was in 2008, since then we have added tens of thousands of pages of new laws and redacted very little, so it will increased from then. The vast majority are never punished for their law breaking.
Until then make school optional, as truancy is impossible to enforce at present. Probably find more or less the right numbers want to come for the next six weeks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqDGF4pSd_s
Surely it is better that the "just anyone" can be someone teaching 10 kids perhaps in a subject they did at A level or related to their degree? Which would also free up time and space for the professional teachers to teach the rest.
The police tactics at these events seem to be contain and disrupt violence, and to gather evidence for later arrests and conviction. Arrests in the heat of the moment are likely to inflame matters.
Boris has already delivered Brexit of course
If free movement is ended by 2024 but Starmer says he would restore it that would have been like Cameron saying he would send troops back to Iraq in 2010
That said, I have had many of my own assumptions challenged since I came here, and I am definitely a less arrogant and glib and hopefully a better and more understanding person than I was when I arrived.
It doesn't look steep at all, nor does he run the last 10 feet.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1271916479206825984
Let's hope that a lot of the fuel for these violent protests was months of pent up frustration at being locked inside. Young men like to be out and about, and a lot of them like to fight too
But:
If (if) it was slippery, that’s how I would have walked down it.
And the instant he was back on firm ground, he straightened up and seemed fine again.
I think we need to be a bit careful that we don’t have what happened with Hilary Clinton, where a bad migraine became a brain tumour.
He’s obviously struggling mentally (his Twitter feed proves that) and he never was fit to be president, but let’s go easy on the illness rumours. We don’t want to play into the hands of his nuttier supporters.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271820635040362497?s=21
Slightly confusing article - but basically the notion of reducing from 2m to 1m is not as strongly supported by the evidence as has been clamed.
I had that in 2016. When I criticised Clinton as a weak candidate who was arrogant, lazy, reckless and vulnerable (not on here) I was accused of being a Trump supporter.
I was right, as it happens, although the results have given me no pleasure.
And I recall hearing that he gets a touch of vertigo on descents.
No big deal.
I hope you have a good lawyer on standby...
They come in with huge hopes on their shoulders that they just HAVE to be better than the last guy.
And then they have to face Germany.
Let's see how Starmer acquits himself when the report into endemic anti-semitism in the Labour Party gets published. It's not like he hasn't had years in the Shadow Cabinet to prepare his answers.
What Jennie Formby was thinking in compiling that internal report I do not know, but it was absolutely damning.
What’s even more bizarre is she seemed to think it was exculpatory.
Indeed, one of the complaints from various communities, is that the police come knocking on doors six months after a demo, with a warrant. It is perceived, by some, as using a past action as tool, "when they want to get someone".