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  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Really? Wow. That could make a difference to the GE next month!...no... wait. When is it again? Remind me?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    44 hotels were owned by the group: all over the country.

    Specialist Leisure Group went into administration last Friday...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited May 2020

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    IMO it's better to rely on David Paton's figures which are based on the number of deaths taking place on a particular day rather than the government figures which include people who died many days and even weeks ago.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Really Sunil I thought better of you.
    Explain. I did use "question marks".
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What is the state of the care home industry? What % of their residents have they lost and have attitudes changed towards them making them less likely a routine solution to care?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Quincel said:

    eek said:

    Just realised they have put the former Chief Exec of Talk Talk in charge of track and trace and the app.

    Erm, massive data hack anyone?

    Hasn't there already been one, or at least a data leak?
    Yes, Serco leaked 300 emails by accident.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/20/serco-apologises-leaking-contact-tracers-personal-email-addresses/
    What a combination Serco and the CEO of Talk Talk.. What could possibly go wrong?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Probably just catching up with the weekend reporting, although I will eat my trousers if there is no second wave.
    OK, just have to see what the figures are tomorrow.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    What happened to Dominic Cummings's "civic duty"?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Probably just catching up with the weekend reporting, although I will eat my trousers if there is no second wave.
    If a second wave is expected later in the year then we should be removing restrictions now and building herd immunity.
    How do you know that the second wave is not coming in three weeks, soon after the two Bank Holidays in May?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Has anyone done an analysis of the Remain/Leave-supporting status of the Tory MPs who've called for Cummings to go?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Really Sunil I thought better of you.
    Explain. I did use "question marks".
    As Andy says plus the usual weekend lag lengthened by the bank holiday.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern?lang=en
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    £69 anti-body test.

    "But the Government is thought to have become jittery about the prospect of people finding out they might be immune to the virus and ignoring lockdown rules. "
    (Mail)

    Oh they need not worry, people now have the Cummings Get Out Clause* to hand. Who needs to pay £69?



    * Opinion is divided on the exact nature of this clause. There are a number of basic ingredients such as driving around with symptoms that might be the virus, an eye test, childcare arrangements, fear of both parents being ill, driving without a rest for 4 or 5 hours. But the details don't matter as the overriding one is: follow instinct at all times!!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting - "Save lives and livelihoods

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1265705075336339456?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    A lot of people (not on PB) are making fools of themselves by implying that "because Cummings allegedly did something wrong it's okay for other people to do the same." Logical fallacy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited May 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    IMO it's better to rely on David Paton's figures which are based on the number of deaths taking place on a particular day rather than the government figures which include people who died many days and even weeks ago.
    I'm using those figures for analysis too - afraid the exponent has slipped, which indicates the halving time for the virus is now around 15 days rather than 14

    893e-0.047x R² = 0.9879 since the peak.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    eristdoof said:

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Probably just catching up with the weekend reporting, although I will eat my trousers if there is no second wave.
    If a second wave is expected later in the year then we should be removing restrictions now and building herd immunity.
    How do you know that the second wave is not coming in three weeks, soon after the two Bank Holidays in May?
    We don't but there doesn't appear to have been a second wave in other countries which have eased restrictions earlier.

    Nor does there seem to be any increase in positive tests since the first bank holiday.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    First of many. Many companies rely on Spring and Summer and losing this period will never be regained.

    For many summer season businesses this will be truly devastating. Many companies will lose money autumn/winter but gain it Spring/Summer.

    For companies that have survived last winter only to have now lost money Spring/Summer and now facing an even worse than normal Winter this is just destructive.
    You don’t need to tell me. I’ve been boring on about it for weeks now.

    When a lot of those job losses are concentrated in particular areas with few alternatives and even those affected by the loss of trade etc, the prospects are poor for those areas.

    “Levelling up” my arse!
    So what do you suggest ?
    At the very least end restrictions on outdoor trade. Its insane that indoor businesses like New Look and Next that can trade all year around are getting ready to open but beer gardens that rely on spring and summer are shut.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited May 2020

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Really Sunil I thought better of you.
    Explain. I did use "question marks".
    So Sunil is a panicking alarmist?

    --> ? <—
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2020
    Andy_JS said:


    IMO it's better to rely on David Paton's figures which are based on the number of deaths taking place on a particular day rather than the government figures which include people who died many days and even weeks ago.

    This for me is the best summary, shows roughly care home deaths ~4% daily decline, hospitals 5%, homes 6% (although home deaths are almost zero now so that part isn't so important going forward).




    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15may2020


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Very good suggestions, number 10 should be simple enough to do blanket for the entire nation. Legalise all licenced premises to sell for on or off trade overnight and suspend regulations against outdoor drinking (but not being drunk and disorderly or other crimes).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    eristdoof said:

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Probably just catching up with the weekend reporting, although I will eat my trousers if there is no second wave.
    If a second wave is expected later in the year then we should be removing restrictions now and building herd immunity.
    How do you know that the second wave is not coming in three weeks, soon after the two Bank Holidays in May?
    We don't but there doesn't appear to have been a second wave in other countries which have eased restrictions earlier.

    Nor does there seem to be any increase in positive tests since the first bank holiday.
    If it weren’t for the handful of small scale studies finding low levels of antibodies, you’d look at the data and conclude that significant proportions of the population now has either immunity or significant resistance.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people (not on PB) are making fools of themselves by implying that "because Cummings allegedly did something wrong it's okay for other people to do the same." Logical fallacy.

    Indeed. What these smartarses don't understand is that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites. After all, the moral outrage against Cummings is predicated on the premise that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them as the intellectually-limited hypocrites that they are.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people (not on PB) are making fools of themselves by implying that "because Cummings allegedly did something wrong it's okay for other people to do the same." Logical fallacy.

    It’s the other way around. Those who have made significant sacrifice were consoling themselves with the thought that we were all in it together. Until we weren’t.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    First of many. Many companies rely on Spring and Summer and losing this period will never be regained.

    For many summer season businesses this will be truly devastating. Many companies will lose money autumn/winter but gain it Spring/Summer.

    For companies that have survived last winter only to have now lost money Spring/Summer and now facing an even worse than normal Winter this is just destructive.
    You don’t need to tell me. I’ve been boring on about it for weeks now.

    When a lot of those job losses are concentrated in particular areas with few alternatives and even those affected by the loss of trade etc, the prospects are poor for those areas.

    “Levelling up” my arse!
    I know, I've been agreeing with you and making similar points myself. On this we think alike.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240

    So if 42 Conservative MPs think Dominic Cummings should stand down, that’s the majority gone. Sounds like there’s scope for an imaginative Opposition motion there.

    My God, those 42 MPs are mostly just putting out messages to virtue-signal and save face with their constituents. That is completely different to taking on the Prime Minister directly in a trial of strength and voting with the Opposition on ... what? A fucking Bill of Attainder against Cummings?

    It's called politics. You can't just take everything at face value.
    OK- how many backbench Conservatives have to go public saying "Cummings must go" for it to be a problem? How many for that problem to be terminal?
    Literally five times as many. For it to have an actual effect beyond virtue-signalling, they would have to resign the whip and destroy their own careers, and even then they probably wouldn't achieve their goal. They ain't gonna do that for this pointless nonsense.
    Come on. The threshold is clearly lower than 200.

    There's an iceberg effect here- we just don't know how big.

    Also, think back to Jezza v Thatch; even a 55-45 win isn't enough, really. Technically, maybe, but not really.

    So what is?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757

    Monkeys said:

    We said "isolate" when you had symptoms. Hancock.

    Hang on, the last three days you've been telling us that that regulation was guided by instinct and could be ignored if there are issues such as childcare.

    It is just bollocks now. Totall bollocks. I don't know how they keep a straight face.

    The Cummins family was isolated. In London. In the car. In County Durham.

    At no point did they come in contact with Joe Public or put them at any additional risk.
    How is driving 350 miles after a stressful period at work without stopping not reckless driving? He was putting anyone on those roads at great risk. Or more likely stopped, probably more than once given they couldnt last 30 minutes without a stop on their next journey, when they were well.
    Some people regularly drive 250 miles. I think people in London think driving is impossible or something.
    The highway code recommends 15 mins break every 2 hours. Driving 350 miles without stopping, with an ill family, when you think you might be ill yourself and after an extremely stressful week at work puts others at risk.
    You've nailed him. He's finished.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people (not on PB) are making fools of themselves by implying that "because Cummings allegedly did something wrong it's okay for other people to do the same." Logical fallacy.

    Indeed. What these smartarses don't understand is that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites. After all, the moral outrage against Cummings is predicated on the premise that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them as the intellectually-limited hypocrites that they are.
    Except that Cummings came up with the lockdown rules! What a Hypocrite!
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Cyclefree said:

    “So what do you suggest?” (@another_richard):-

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Its astonishing that the government expects the economy to survive and thrive under the welter of additional burdens placed on it. I thought these people were conservatives.

    Wait until they find out the truth. And wait until they finally have to make the decisions they have been desperate to avoid for months.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    “So what do you suggest?” (@another_richard):-

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    They seem sensible ideas at first glance (haven't looked at previous thread).

    Might I suggest you contact local MPs, government departments, trade bodies etc.

    The problem the government faces is that the likes of Piers Moron will rant that the government wants to kill people whenever there's any suggestion of reducing restrictions.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020

    So if 42 Conservative MPs think Dominic Cummings should stand down, that’s the majority gone. Sounds like there’s scope for an imaginative Opposition motion there.

    My God, those 42 MPs are mostly just putting out messages to virtue-signal and save face with their constituents. That is completely different to taking on the Prime Minister directly in a trial of strength and voting with the Opposition on ... what? A fucking Bill of Attainder against Cummings?

    It's called politics. You can't just take everything at face value.
    OK- how many backbench Conservatives have to go public saying "Cummings must go" for it to be a problem? How many for that problem to be terminal?
    Literally five times as many. For it to have an actual effect beyond virtue-signalling, they would have to resign the whip and destroy their own careers, and even then they probably wouldn't achieve their goal. They ain't gonna do that for this pointless nonsense.
    Come on. The threshold is clearly lower than 200.

    There's an iceberg effect here- we just don't know how big.

    Also, think back to Jezza v Thatch; even a 55-45 win isn't enough, really. Technically, maybe, but not really.

    So what is?
    Let's say 150 signalling virtue. Probably 20 resigning the whip.

    Although Boris has already kicked 20 of his own MPs out of the Conservative Party in a single day for defying him, so maybe even that wouldn't do the trick.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Monkeys said:

    Monkeys said:

    We said "isolate" when you had symptoms. Hancock.

    Hang on, the last three days you've been telling us that that regulation was guided by instinct and could be ignored if there are issues such as childcare.

    It is just bollocks now. Totall bollocks. I don't know how they keep a straight face.

    The Cummins family was isolated. In London. In the car. In County Durham.

    At no point did they come in contact with Joe Public or put them at any additional risk.
    How is driving 350 miles after a stressful period at work without stopping not reckless driving? He was putting anyone on those roads at great risk. Or more likely stopped, probably more than once given they couldnt last 30 minutes without a stop on their next journey, when they were well.
    Some people regularly drive 250 miles. I think people in London think driving is impossible or something.
    The highway code recommends 15 mins break every 2 hours. Driving 350 miles without stopping, with an ill family, when you think you might be ill yourself and after an extremely stressful week at work puts others at risk.
    You've nailed him. He's finished.
    He might be if someone saw him at the services.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited May 2020
    Andrew said:

    Andy_JS said:


    IMO it's better to rely on David Paton's figures which are based on the number of deaths taking place on a particular day rather than the government figures which include people who died many days and even weeks ago.

    This for me is the best summary, shows roughly care home deaths ~4% daily decline, hospitals 5%, homes 6% (although home deaths are almost zero now so that part isn't so important going forward).




    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15may2020


    y = 959e-0.049x
    R² = 0.9888

    From the peak (Yes 959 is artificially fitted, as was 893 for the hospitals) so slightly more positive actually.

    Edit: English and welsh hospitals that's for...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    edited May 2020
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    44 hotels were owned by the group: all over the country.

    Specialist Leisure Group went into administration last Friday...
    I know. But I was at a funeral that day and had other matters on my mind.

    Cyclefree said:

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Very good suggestions, number 10 should be simple enough to do blanket for the entire nation. Legalise all licenced premises to sell for on or off trade overnight and suspend regulations against outdoor drinking (but not being drunk and disorderly or other crimes).
    I thought one needed geniuses to do all sorts of thinking for the government. I dreamt these up in 5 minutes. What the hell are all these political geniuses and advisors actually doing?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people (not on PB) are making fools of themselves by implying that "because Cummings allegedly did something wrong it's okay for other people to do the same." Logical fallacy.

    What happened to Dominic Cummings's "civic duty"?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Cyclefree said:

    “So what do you suggest?” (@another_richard):-

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    They seem sensible ideas at first glance (haven't looked at previous thread).

    Might I suggest you contact local MPs, government departments, trade bodies etc.

    The problem the government faces is that the likes of Piers Moron will rant that the government wants to kill people whenever there's any suggestion of reducing restrictions.
    When people are facing mass unemployment for years, they won;t give a f8ck what Piers Morgan says. As if they ever did
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone done an analysis of the Remain/Leave-supporting status of the Tory MPs who've called for Cummings to go?

    What for?

    Brexit Tory MPs hate Cummings because he correctly identified that they were a load of useless idiotic tossers who would do their campaign more harm than good unless they were ruthlessly pushed aside.

    Remainers hate Cummings for precisely the same reason.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Twitter reckons

    Dido oversaw one of the biggest breaches of private data whilst at Talk Talk.

    Tories gave her a job in charge of data.

    Any idea if its true?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "As coronavirus arrived in France this winter, staff at an army base in the east of the country were dutifully burning hundreds of thousands of facemasks.

    The incinerations were part of a money-saving programme to run down the state’s stock of 1.7 billion protective masks that had reached a peak in 2011.

    Neither ministers nor MPs had questioned the initiative, which would almost certainly have escaped attention altogether if the pandemic had never struck."

    (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-frances-facemask-fiasco-burns-deep-for-macron-kfkbdsd57
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Twitter reckons

    Dido oversaw one of the biggest breaches of private data whilst at Talk Talk.

    Tories gave her a job in charge of data.

    Any idea if its true?

    It’s true. It’ll be your life for rent.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    44 hotels were owned by the group: all over the country.

    Specialist Leisure Group went into administration last Friday...
    I know. But I was at a funeral that day and had other matters on my mind.

    Cyclefree said:

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Very good suggestions, number 10 should be simple enough to do blanket for the entire nation. Legalise all licenced premises to sell for on or off trade overnight and suspend regulations against outdoor drinking (but not being drunk and disorderly or other crimes).
    I thought one needed geniuses to do all sorts of thinking for the government. I dreamt these up in 5 minutes. What the hell are all these political geniuses and advisors actually doing?
    Worrying about how many minutes apart golf partners should tee off from?

    Unlocking outdoor hospitality should be done already. Its literally insane when we know that outdoor transmission is much less likely than indoor transmission that we are opening up indoor businesses while keeping outdoor ones locked out.

    Are they seriously suggesting that in a couple of weeks time if I'm bored I can go spend time with thousands of other people browsing in a shopping complex like The Trafford Centre but I can't sit in the sunshine keeping summer hospitality businesses alive?

    Its insane. The government is doing an awful job here going arse over tit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    All settings is either
    y = 1280e-0.035x R² = 0.9496 or
    y = 1434.7e-0.04x R² = 0.9666

    Which indicates a 17 to 20 day halving time for the virus, take your pick.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205



    Its insane. The government is doing an awful job here going arse over tit.

    Glad you've noticed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    44 hotels were owned by the group: all over the country.

    Specialist Leisure Group went into administration last Friday...
    I know. But I was at a funeral that day and had other matters on my mind.

    Cyclefree said:

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Very good suggestions, number 10 should be simple enough to do blanket for the entire nation. Legalise all licenced premises to sell for on or off trade overnight and suspend regulations against outdoor drinking (but not being drunk and disorderly or other crimes).
    I thought one needed geniuses to do all sorts of thinking for the government. I dreamt these up in 5 minutes. What the hell are all these political geniuses and advisors actually doing?
    Worrying about how many minutes apart golf partners should tee off from?

    Unlocking outdoor hospitality should be done already. Its literally insane when we know that outdoor transmission is much less likely than indoor transmission that we are opening up indoor businesses while keeping outdoor ones locked out.

    Are they seriously suggesting that in a couple of weeks time if I'm bored I can go spend time with thousands of other people browsing in a shopping complex like The Trafford Centre but I can't sit in the sunshine keeping summer hospitality businesses alive?

    Its insane. The government is doing an awful job here going arse over tit.
    I quite agree. There is no sense to what the government is doing. It seems driven by panic and the need for favourable publicity.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    isam said:


    Yes, just what I used to think when everyone banged on about Farage sweating and making hilarious mis-spellings/pronunciations of his name. It was fair game then, apparently... some used to think it was funny too

    It probably does mean they fear him though

    The curious thing is if this is the reaction when the Conservatives are still 6 points ahead - what will it be like when Labour leads by 10-15 points?
    It is pretty lamentable whenever it happens really.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people (not on PB) are making fools of themselves by implying that "because Cummings allegedly did something wrong it's okay for other people to do the same." Logical fallacy.

    Indeed. What these smartarses don't understand is that making that argument automatically exposes them as hypocrites. After all, the moral outrage against Cummings is predicated on the premise that endangering public health is the worst thing in the world, so when the exact same people then conclude 'therefore I can go ahead and endanger public health as much as I like', it reveals them as the intellectually-limited hypocrites that they are.
    Except that Cummings came up with the lockdown rules! What a Hypocrite!
    Irrelevant. Either endangering the public health is a moral evil or it isn't. To put it another way, would it be OK to murder someone just because an authority figure committed a murder? No, it bloody well would not!

    People making the argument that it would be OK expose their 'morality' as a sham.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    44 hotels were owned by the group: all over the country.

    Specialist Leisure Group went into administration last Friday...
    I know. But I was at a funeral that day and had other matters on my mind.

    Cyclefree said:

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Very good suggestions, number 10 should be simple enough to do blanket for the entire nation. Legalise all licenced premises to sell for on or off trade overnight and suspend regulations against outdoor drinking (but not being drunk and disorderly or other crimes).
    I thought one needed geniuses to do all sorts of thinking for the government. I dreamt these up in 5 minutes. What the hell are all these political geniuses and advisors actually doing?
    They'll be having meetings and meetings about meetings.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019



    No its the idea that I was voting for an MEP that I'm struggling with.

    Its preposterous. I was voting for there to be no MEPs.

    Or perhaps you were voting for there to be no Bosnian muslim men left alive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    If you take care homes out the analysis you get back to a 14 day halving period. On their own, at least 17 days if not more.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    44 hotels were owned by the group: all over the country.

    Specialist Leisure Group went into administration last Friday...
    I know. But I was at a funeral that day and had other matters on my mind.

    Cyclefree said:

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Very good suggestions, number 10 should be simple enough to do blanket for the entire nation. Legalise all licenced premises to sell for on or off trade overnight and suspend regulations against outdoor drinking (but not being drunk and disorderly or other crimes).
    I thought one needed geniuses to do all sorts of thinking for the government. I dreamt these up in 5 minutes. What the hell are all these political geniuses and advisors actually doing?
    Worrying about how many minutes apart golf partners should tee off from?

    Unlocking outdoor hospitality should be done already. Its literally insane when we know that outdoor transmission is much less likely than indoor transmission that we are opening up indoor businesses while keeping outdoor ones locked out.

    Are they seriously suggesting that in a couple of weeks time if I'm bored I can go spend time with thousands of other people browsing in a shopping complex like The Trafford Centre but I can't sit in the sunshine keeping summer hospitality businesses alive?

    Its insane. The government is doing an awful job here going arse over tit.
    I quite agree. There is no sense to what the government is doing. It seems driven by panic and the need for favourable publicity.
    Then we can expect the medical experts within Sage to resign, if the Government is flagrantly gaming lockdown to get out of its own political hole.

    Alternatively they could be following advice.
  • Oh dear
  • Another 6 point gap, Labour will be on par soon
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Another 6 point gap, Labour will be on par soon

    Still not 38-40 then :wink:
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    And so it begins: a large hotel/holiday company goes into administration. 2 hotels in Windermere and Keswick close and, according to the press, 2500 people lose their jobs.

    44 hotels were owned by the group: all over the country.

    Specialist Leisure Group went into administration last Friday...
    I know. But I was at a funeral that day and had other matters on my mind.

    Cyclefree said:

    What I said on the previous thread.

    1. Start opening up the hospitality sector.
    2. Set out the advice on risks and sensible hygiene practices.
    3. Do not put them into law.
    4. Businesses to adopt what is reasonable for their premises.
    5.Get rid of the 2 metre guidance. The WHO recommends 1 metre and this is widely used in the rest of Europe.
    6. Maintain furlough on a sliding / transitional basis for, say, a month or so.
    7. Offer compensation sums instead of furlough for those businesses that want to close to allow investment in other businesses.
    8. Work with insurance sector to have fairer burden sharing in relation to business interruption insurance.
    9. Make it law that businesses are not liable if their customers catch this virus just as they are not liable if one of their customers catches the flu etc.
    10. Relax licensing laws to allow pubs / hotels to do as much business outside without needing to go through time-consuming and expensive individual applications.

    How about these for starters.

    Very good suggestions, number 10 should be simple enough to do blanket for the entire nation. Legalise all licenced premises to sell for on or off trade overnight and suspend regulations against outdoor drinking (but not being drunk and disorderly or other crimes).
    I thought one needed geniuses to do all sorts of thinking for the government. I dreamt these up in 5 minutes. What the hell are all these political geniuses and advisors actually doing?
    They'll be having meetings and meetings about meetings.
    I may suggest these to my MP, Trudi Harrison. Fat lot of good it will do. She is Boris’s PPS. But she has said nothing - absolutely nothing - about the hospitality sector, despite it being a very significant employer in her constituency.

    Tim Farron, on the other hand, has been very active and vocal.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Pulpstar said:

    If you take care homes out the analysis you get back to a 14 day halving period. On their own, at least 17 days if not more.

    Being rather brutal taking care homes out gives a better guide as to how restrictions can be eased.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    edited May 2020

    Twitter reckons

    Dido oversaw one of the biggest breaches of private data whilst at Talk Talk.

    Tories gave her a job in charge of data.

    Any idea if its true?

    It was in this week's Private Eye.
    When she was asked if the hacked data at Talk Talk was encrpyted her reply was:
    "The awful truth is I don't know"
    She is the chair of the Test and Trace programme so therefore persumably oversees the App. What could possibly go wrong?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people (not on PB) are making fools of themselves by implying that "because Cummings allegedly did something wrong it's okay for other people to do the same." Logical fallacy.

    Agreed. I also don't get why people think it's relevant to say

    "I didn't visit my dying relative, yet he can go to Durham"

    He didn't visit dying relatives, he wouldn't be allowed in the hospital/care home same as anyone else. Even if he had just gone to Durham because it was more comfortable than staying in London, it shouldn't give people grievance over their non visiting of people with covid-19 in hospitals, it makes no difference

  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Newsnight have got that scalp !

    EM canned from tonights show...

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    If you take care homes out the analysis you get back to a 14 day halving period. On their own, at least 17 days if not more.

    Apparently care home residents are 0.6% of the UK population, and 38% of UK Covid deaths
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Mango said:



    No its the idea that I was voting for an MEP that I'm struggling with.

    Its preposterous. I was voting for there to be no MEPs.

    Or perhaps you were voting for there to be no Bosnian muslim men left alive.
    I knew she was ex communist and pro IRA but didn't realise the bit about her being a genocide denier till now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    IanB2 said:

    412 dead today? Second wave approaching?

    Really Sunil I thought better of you.
    Explain. I did use "question marks".
    So Sunil is a panicking alarmist?

    --> ? <—</p>
    Or an alarming panickist :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Another 6 point gap, Labour will be on par soon

    Just a word of warning. We thought we were home and dry in 1992 and then came Kinnock's Sheffield Rally. 'Oh yeah, bring it on'...20 seat Conservative majority! Pride comes before a fall!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What are the chances of a holiday in Portugal mid July? The resort is open, the planes might be flying...

    But would it be much of a holiday? We are staying in a hotel down the road from our friends.. would the hotels let people come and go? Masks worn?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you live in an urban area you're more likely to find yourself in breach of a regulation based on getting too close to other people than people living in the middle of nowhere.
    Even ignoring the super elite like Cummings, the idea that our law treats people equally regardless of class or race is miles away from reality. Particularly on an issue like this, how you respond initially to the police (and importantly their perception of your response) will have far more impact on whether you get charged than the severity of the crime you committed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Changes since the general election:

    Con -2%
    Lab +4%
    LD -3%
    Grn +1%
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    isam said:

    What are the chances of a holiday in Portugal mid July? The resort is open, the planes might be flying...

    But would it be much of a holiday? We are staying in a hotel down the road from our friends.. would the hotels let people come and go? Masks worn?

    Portugal did a pretty good job of containing the virus. I doubt they're going to let the likes of you in, Sam. ;)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    isam said:

    What are the chances of a holiday in Portugal mid July? The resort is open, the planes might be flying...

    But would it be much of a holiday? We are staying in a hotel down the road from our friends.. would the hotels let people come and go? Masks worn?

    My guess short of second wave then apart from a degree of social distancing and no buffet meals and reduced capacity then yes you would get a holiday.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Its always interesting how trusting certain posters are of Western figures whilst being absolutely certain that Chinas are out by 50x.

    * I dont know and accept I wont ever know the truth either way. All these years later estimates for Chernobyl range from 31 to a few million!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Twitter reckons

    Dido oversaw one of the biggest breaches of private data whilst at Talk Talk.

    Tories gave her a job in charge of data.

    Any idea if its true?

    I preferred her early work, particularly White Flag.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take care homes out the analysis you get back to a 14 day halving period. On their own, at least 17 days if not more.

    Apparently care home residents are 0.6% of the UK population, and 38% of UK Covid deaths
    Controversial opinion: I am surprised its not higher. Care homes have done a good job to keep it such a low proportion, I believe in many nations they're the majority of deaths and for good reason.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Is anyone else geeking out over the Spacex launch in 90 minutes or so, weather permitting? I was an avid fan of Apollo and this brings it all back. TV coverage began over 4 hours before the launch and I'm just lapping it up. I've found my inner 18 year old again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    If we name all the Liverpool players they may yet still miss out on the title too.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Tories retaining 96% of their support from the GE according to the new opinion poll.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I get the feeling that Boris is going to be pensioned off to recover his health.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    Another 6 point gap, Labour will be on par soon

    Just a word of warning. We thought we were home and dry in 1992 and then came Kinnock's Sheffield Rally. 'Oh yeah, bring it on'...20 seat Conservative majority! Pride comes before a fall!
    Actually:

    "Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall". Proverbs, 16:18.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Following on from the discussion on "Boris" Vs "Johnson", I was wondering whether there is anyone else in political life who uses one name in public and another in private? George Osborne changed his name but as far as I know his family and friends don't call him Gideon. It's a bit weird, no? And maybe a bit unsurprising that he has a rather distant relationship with the truth?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories retaining 96% of their support from the GE according to the new opinion poll.

    Not sure that means anything to be honest. Perhaps the question is whether the 43% is now a solid vote or whether the Conservative vote will soften further.

    We'll see.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mango said:



    No its the idea that I was voting for an MEP that I'm struggling with.

    Its preposterous. I was voting for there to be no MEPs.

    Or perhaps you were voting for there to be no Bosnian muslim men left alive.
    Yeah because that's the topic that was being discussed at the election.

    Give over. It didn't matter who the candidates were, they were vapid placeholder names and utterly irrelevant.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Meanwhile, away from the latest revelations about whether Dominic Cummings may have passed wind or not in his fateful trip to Durham, the world continues to miss the point completely about hydroxychloroqin. Trials now being 'suspended' due to 'safety concerns'.

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-trial-hydroxychloroquine-covid-treatment.html

    The latest hydroxychloroqin trial that was completed and found that it wasn't efficacious (funded by drug companies who make other stuff) did not use it in conjunction with Zinc, which is the combination that has shown remarkable results anecdotally:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eVs_EWVCVPc

    'Must be taken in conjunction with zinc'

    'Every patient given this has been symptom free in 8 to 10 hours'

    This would be a real scandal. If a cheap and easy to produce anti-malarial drug in combination with a widely available mineral were to be the gold standard coronavirus treatment, and had the capability to stop this being a feared diagnosis, but drug companies and people who frankly just don't like Donald Trump stop it happening.

    But as you were, Cummings etc....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I get the feeling that Boris is going to be pensioned off to recover his health.

    When I wrote a couple of weeks ago that he looked well off his form, I had a lot of consumer resistance to the idea on thread. There seems to be more support for that view now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Saltire said:

    Twitter reckons

    Dido oversaw one of the biggest breaches of private data whilst at Talk Talk.

    Tories gave her a job in charge of data.

    Any idea if its true?

    It was in this week's Private Eye.
    When she was asked if the hacked data at Talk Talk was encrpyted her reply was:
    "The awful truth is I don't know"
    She is the chair of the Test and Trace programme so therefore persumably oversees the App. What could possibly go wrong?
    "The awful truth is I don't know." :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take care homes out the analysis you get back to a 14 day halving period. On their own, at least 17 days if not more.

    Being rather brutal taking care homes out gives a better guide as to how restrictions can be eased.
    Sure, the one caveat is the ONS data only goes up to the 15th May at the moment
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    edited May 2020
    I believe a similar reason was why many prominent people were investigated for witchcraft in the olden days.

    And some people are already in a panic at the possibility:

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1265693847545360390
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Following on from the discussion on "Boris" Vs "Johnson", I was wondering whether there is anyone else in political life who uses one name in public and another in private? George Osborne changed his name but as far as I know his family and friends don't call him Gideon. It's a bit weird, no? And maybe a bit unsurprising that he has a rather distant relationship with the truth?

    What drugs are you taking?

    If his friends and family don't call him Gideon then why should the public call him Gideon?

    There's something deeply nasty about this name shaming. Call people what they want to be called, its just basic respect.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2020


    Controversial opinion: I am surprised its not higher. Care homes have done a good job to keep it such a low proportion, I believe in many nations they're the majority of deaths and for good reason.

    Our care home death numbers are surprisingly a (relatively) small fraction of our total deaths - in Europe it's a half or more, even 2/3 in Spain. Here it's less than a quarter.

    The problem has been the wider death rate outside care homes. Our hospital numbers are horrendous.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Tim_B said:

    Is anyone else geeking out over the Spacex launch in 90 minutes or so, weather permitting? I was an avid fan of Apollo and this brings it all back. TV coverage began over 4 hours before the launch and I'm just lapping it up. I've found my inner 18 year old again.

    What channel?
This discussion has been closed.