politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer overtakes Johnson in latest YouGov leader ratings
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer overtakes Johnson in latest YouGov leader ratings
Even though he’s only been LAB leader for just five and a half weeks the latest YouGov “well/badly” ratings have Starmer edging ahead of Johnson. The Standard reports:
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With friends like that, who needs enemies?
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1260313454193389568
What does seem clear, being a fatty really isnt a good idea with CV.
I remember when asked about should people try to lose weight at one of the press conference. Lady Egghead, just went well diets aren't good idea really, need full change of lifestyle, which is very hard thing to do.
Brilliant, well done, just tell everybody its too hard, so don't bother.
Even in Scotland
It has been obvious to one and all taxes will have to rise (apart from HYUFD)
https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1260311767948951557
Before this, very low unemployment, but low productivity. Even considering what OGH Jnr told us about this number, were concerns about how companies were just coasting along as things were fine and no real need to do full assessments of what parts of their businesses were efficient etc.
I think we will see a lot of hard looks at what everybodies roles are and if they are needed, if they are needed in an office etc.
Not good for unemployment.
Here’s a tweet of his from a couple of years back...
https://twitter.com/GenChuckYeager/status/942640687341649920
But the furlough extension is a lifeline to millions who do not need to worry before late October at the earliest
Beware comparative statistics in medical information. 82% less likely? What is the reference group? What are the actual underlying numbers?
I am not dismissing the paper, but let's look at the maths in absolute terms.
Those who are in their 20s have about a 1% chance of hospitalization if they catch the virus.
So 10 in 1000 will require hospitalization.
An 82% reduction in that means that 2 in 1000 smokers in that age group require hospitalization.
So the absolute reduction in risk, not comparative reduction, is from 1% to 0.2%, i.e. only a 0.8% reduction in real absolute risk.
So, even if one accepts a 100% causality here, for 8 people to be saved hospitalization, 1000 non-smokers would have to take up smoking, or a NNT (number needed to treat) of 125 per 1 saved hospitalization.
Doesn't sound so impressive now, does it?
In the poll immediately after he became leader, Ed Miliband had a +20% net positive rating on the "well/badly" question with You Gov. Five weeks later he was down to +2%, and he kept going down thereafter. By contrast, with Starmer also over a month in, he's on +23% net on the same question with no sign of the positive rating from earlier polls falling away. If that continues, the 2024 election could yet be competitive.
I think there have been only two general elections in the last 40 years in which Labour has gone into the election with a leader with a positive rating - Blair in 1997 and 2001.
I said the other day, I think a lot of people think we just hide away for another month, then it will be back to normal. Basically lots of people had had a nice long break and then everything will be opened up and running again.
Hence the "can we go on our summer holibobs" type question, to which there is a confused shocked look when the answer is no.
People don't really get economics at the best of times, I am sure they don't get how grinding the economy to halt for 3 months, that every day is just eye wateringly expensive. Hence the lets have another bank holiday is always greeted with, great idea.
And I definitely don't think they have grasped this idea that until a vaccine, work and life will not be normal.
As much as Johnson and the Tories have been terrible....that lot would have been worse.....
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality monitor Week 18 2020 v01 2020-05-12.pdf
Summary of findings here:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/continuous-mortality-investigation_we-are-publishing-weekly-mortality-updates-activity-6665953037342904320-RRQE
* There were 1.6 times as many deaths registered in week 18 of 2020 than if mortality rates had been the same as week 18 of 2019. The ratio was 2.2 in week 17 and 2.4 in week 16.
* These ‘excess’ deaths in week 18 were 10% higher than the number of registered deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. The difference was significantly higher in previous weeks: 43% in week 17 and 51% in week 16.
* There may have been around 60,000 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 11 May 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.
Good news is we seem to be starting to rapidly approach normality, even when non-hospital deaths are taken into consideration (excess of 140% down to 120% to 60% over the last three weeks).
The way you constantly attack the government leads me to believe you actually want this scheme and others to actually fail, because you have been poisoned by brexit
Trump is getting trounced among a crucial constituency: The haters
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/12/donald-trump-haters-joe-biden-clinton-244629
... President Donald Trump is losing a critical constituency: voters who see two choices on the ballot — and hate them both.
Unlike in 2016, when a large group of voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton broke sharply for Trump, the opposite is happening now...
Nicotine and the renin-angiotensin system
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6295500/
There is some plausibility to nicotinc receptors being significant in the pathology of Covid-19.
I would also be interested in looking at the details of the regression analysis. If you factor out cardiovascular diseases including hypertension, then that may well interfere in the detection of a smoking effect.
The public inquiry is going to be like the old joke about shareholders and the markets: when the tide goes out we'll see who is swimming with no trunks.
Something few people and even fewer politicians want the country to do.
What a guy.
'Yeager had gained one victory before he was shot down over France in his first aircraft (P-51B-5-NA s/n 43-6763) on March 5, 1944 during his eighth mission. He escaped to Spain on March 30 with the help of the Maquis (French Resistance) and returned to England on May 15, 1944. During his stay with the Maquis, Yeager assisted the guerrillas in duties that did not involve direct combat; he helped construct bombs for the group, a skill that he had learned from his father. He was awarded the Bronze Star for helping a B-24 navigator, "Pat" Patterson, who was shot in the knee during the escape attempt, to cross the Pyrenees. Yeager cut off the tendon by which Patterson's leg was hanging below the knee, then tied off the leg with a spare shirt made of parachute silk.'
Big_G_NorthWales said:
' It depends on the outcome of covid down the line to be fair
It could go either way'
That might well determine the extent of the decline in his popularity but unlikely the fact of it. Virtually all PMs would be on a 'high' in the aftermath of a big electoral victory, and in addition Johnson has been buoyed by the desire for rallying around in a spirit of national unity to combat Covid together with a wave of sympathy for his own plight having been struck by this virus.It is very likely to be a matter of how far his popularity falls - and how quickly it comes about.
Looks like they are going to use Covid as an excuse to raise taxes in a long term basis rather than face a grown up conversation Bout the right level of tax
In the long-run, we are all dead.
If in two years we are still no vaccine, only marginal improvement in treatments, we are talking a totally different world. Many businesses will be radically altered or not sustainable.
This is not the roaring 20's......
And here we have Brexit.......
The UK economy is going to be particularly traumatised....
Stop. A hike to a 25p basic rate is utter insanity.
The effects on aggregate demand would be dire at the exact time when we need to promote spending.
Borrow and print our way out. It’s a global crisis FFS.
But with one there is at least the chance he may appoint people to vital roles not based on how craven or related they were to him.
That he may not fire them on a whim because they told him what he did not wish to hear.
He may not set policy by a 3 am tweet, or change it based on the last person he spoke to.
Or storm off when asked a perfectly reasonable question.
Or a myriad of other things.
One might be tempted to laugh at such odds, the trouble is that Laddies' Shadsy has invariably shown himself to be very shrewd when setting such odds.
One thing's for sure, Boris really needs to up his game and soon. His performance throughout this year, even making due allowance for his serious illness, has been lamentable and continues to be so.
“The use of the word addiction is not one that I have ever used and not one I agree with,” the Chancellor said. “Nobody who is on the furlough scheme wants to be on this scheme.”
But two thoughts:-
1. The length, size and extent of the scheme is a measure of the failure of our lockdown and to take more effective measures earlier. I wonder whether the government will get more blame for the latter or more credit for the former.
2. Long depressing discussion with daughter this evening. She is looking at what the takeaway business is bringing in and the costs. Desperate as she is to keep the business going she does not see how this is going to be possible without the landlord waiving or very significantly reducing the rent.
Other factors:-
- the likely need to contribute to employees’ wages even under the furlough scheme which will simply be unaffordable;
- the length of time pubs are likely to remain closed during the most profitable time of the year thus making no margins to tide them over the quieter winter season;
- the likelihood of a recession which will reduce demand even when reopening is legally possible; and
- social distancing requirements which will make it impossible to operate at all, if applied literally, and certainly to operate profitably.
So unless something turns up it is looking increasingly inevitable that she will have to close her business.
Depressed is an understatement for how she is feeling. I am gutted for her.
If more people will WFH, do we need HS2? Could we use that to put into R&D, what about setting up factories for supplies of critical items like PPE?
The reality is we are going to have a hell of a lot more unemployed people in 12 months time. You could try and work towards the state creating employment with targeted infrastructure building, onshoring critical items, etc etc etc.
The market intervention by the state by locking them down demands an equal and opposite countermeasure.
Good luck to your daughter - I have been interested and saddened to read your accounts.
Shame he's hacked away a number of possible sucessors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7JITDt_tpI
And this country has for years been living beyond them.
If government debt had been a few hundred billion lower then there would have been more scope for action now.
Likewise the more debt and the less savings individuals have the more at risk they will now be.
He doesn't look the sort to change a nappy or do a 2 AM feed.
The French quarantine exception might help lay the groundwork.
I enjoyed your header earlier, sorry to miss it. Busy day trying to put humpty dumpy together again.
More WFH means less commuting.
How do we want cities to look?
Do we need, not want, but need, a car for almost every adult poisoning us?
Can we get more living within walking distance of their work? How can cycling be made safer?
Is it wise to prop up airlines when a great deal of business travel is a totally unnecessary perk for those who reach a certain level in the company hierarchy?
This is a chance to do some thinking. I don't have the answers.
The absence of work on preparing an Irish Sea border shows that they cannot be trusted to keep their word on treaties. Who would be fool enough to sign another?
Boris has lots of faults but maybe more respect for Carrie and his son would not go amiss