Devolution is a real mess, isn't it? One of Labour's disasters.
What would your alternative have been?
Tory SOP was to float around and promise all sorts of guff then completely ignore it when in office. I'm sure that would be exactly Nabavi's preferred alternative.
Sounds pretty sensible.
Hasn't that been our strategy for the last two hundred years?
Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"
Damn right too!
Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
Surely Tunnock teacakes for SNP supporters. Have you no national pride?
As you very well know Tunnocks Teacakes are a Unionist confectionery and therefore banned from all Nat tradesmen's entrances. The preferred Nat bum sweet would be home made tablet or perhaps something from Lidl.
Members of the Faculty of Advocates have just been granted key worker status. Means I or any member of my family have the right to be tested if we become symptomatic. Whoopee. Not sure I have ever been thought "key" before and the less said about being a worker the better.
Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"
Damn right too!
Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
Surely Tunnock teacakes for SNP supporters. Have you no national pride?
As you very well know Tunnocks Teacakes are a Unionist confectionery and therefore banned from all Nat tradesmen's entrances. The preferred Nat bum sweet would be home made tablet or perhaps something from Lidl.
Compare and contrast the ranty absurdity of Jezbollah's question which Bozza just bats away vs the forensic take apart of the massive contradictions in the various bits of government advice
No Labour member should be allowed to use the term Jezbollah IMO.
Typical Corbyn - wants everyone on welfare forever...
The Tories are presiding over such massive spending that it trashes public finances for generations - Labour`s response?: "You`re not spending enough".
Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"
Damn right too!
Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"
Damn right too!
Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
From 29 April, figures for deaths include all cases where there is a positive confirmed test for coronavirus. The figures include deaths with lab-confirmed COVID-19 in all settings, not just those in hospital, and this provides us with a single figure on an equivalent basis for the whole of the UK.
These UK figures are compiled from validated data provided by each of the four nations of the UK. Figures from Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland) have always included tested cases outside hospital. Figures for England from 29 April onwards are provided by Public Health England and draw together several different data sources, including data from NHS England and Improvement, to produce this broader measure.
This approach allows us to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up-to-date figures across all settings. The data includes deaths with lab-confirmed COVID-19 reported as at 5pm the previous day. The amount of time between occurrence of death and reporting in these figures may vary slightly and in some cases could be a few days, so figures at 5pm may not include all deaths for that day. The PHE method draws on data from 3 data sources and individual records of deaths are included in the figures as soon as they are available in any of these 3 sources.
In rare instances, the daily count under the new measure may be lower than the old measure because some hospital deaths in the hospital-only data will include individuals who have already been included in the composite count. Individual deaths have already been reported in the PHE series on previous days.
Boris points out the obvious, people are already at work following new Covid 19 procedures.
Quite, and have been since March.
For me and the area of my company my team works in, yesterday's announcement essentially changed exactly nothing.
It drives me made that people keep saying there is no advice. There is an incredible amount.
We were entirely led by the gov.uk advice in March and April. Which was in essence stay 2m apart and wash your hands. Wear PPE if appropriate That was about it but what else did we need?
We had a brainstorm and came up with 28 separate ideas to enable the 2m thing.Most of them are implemented now. Many will remain permanently i think as they are not really COVID specific but have led to us being more efficient in how we are organised...turns out we weren't working all that smartly time and motion wise anyway lol, virus or no virus...
Starmer mentions that all international arrivals will be subject to quarantine, not just those by air.
Good
Will do a lot of good for food deliveries I am sure.
Access through France allows imports
So not all arrivals to UK will be quarantined then.
I thought you knew Boris has done a deal with Macron to permit access to the UK from France and indeed Ireland.
I was just going on the post saying Starmer had had it confirmed that all international arrivals would be quarantined. They are far from clear on anything so hard to keep up with what is in and what is out.
Compare and contrast the ranty absurdity of Jezbollah's question which Bozza just bats away vs the forensic take apart of the massive contradictions in the various bits of government advice
No Labour member should be allowed to use the term Jezbollah IMO.
Not very comradely is it?
Maybe Jezbollah shouldn't be in the Labour Party given his history of antisemitism? Would be a cleaner solution.
Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"
Damn right too!
Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
This guidance applies in England – people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should follow the specific rules in those parts of the UK.
If you live in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland additional guidance is available:
Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
The difference regulations in different parts of the UK mean that English workers are now going to work to do the jobs that raise the taxes, that will then be given to Scottish and Welsh people, so they can continue to stay at home.
Put it even more bluntly: Englishmen will die so that Scotsmen may live
You been on the cooking sherry again, time to stop listening to Vera Lynn I think.
Starmer mentions that all international arrivals will be subject to quarantine, not just those by air.
Good
Will do a lot of good for food deliveries I am sure.
Access through France allows imports
So not all arrivals to UK will be quarantined then.
I thought you knew Boris has done a deal with Macron to permit access to the UK from France and indeed Ireland.
I was just going on the post saying Starmer had had it confirmed that all international arrivals would be quarantined. They are far from clear on anything so hard to keep up with what is in and what is out.
The bi-lateral UK - France decision was confirmed in a joint statement by Boris and Macron yesterday
Labour MP: "No-one should be expected to return to work when it isn`t safe".
FFS it`s never going to be safe!
This is the problem with the message we need to lockdown and you must stay at home. From that, very hard to convince people any activity is safe.
The briefing from the government to the media last night had the stats of for instance only 1% of kids were in school, when 20% are children of key workers. Now some will have partners who aren't and been looking after them, but clearly large numbers of parents are so scared to let their kids to go to school, they would rather leave them at home on their own.
Compare and contrast the ranty absurdity of Jezbollah's question which Bozza just bats away vs the forensic take apart of the massive contradictions in the various bits of government advice
No Labour member should be allowed to use the term Jezbollah IMO.
Not very comradely is it?
Maybe Jezbollah shouldn't be in the Labour Party given his history of antisemitism? Would be a cleaner solution.
Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"
Damn right too!
Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"
Damn right too!
Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
Surely Tunnock teacakes for SNP supporters. Have you no national pride?
As you very well know Tunnocks Teacakes are a Unionist confectionery and therefore banned from all Nat tradesmen's entrances. The preferred Nat bum sweet would be home made tablet or perhaps something from Lidl.
"A face covering is not the same as a facemask such as the surgical masks or respirators used as part of personal protective equipment by healthcare and other workers"
"A face covering is not the same as a facemask such as the surgical masks or respirators used as part of personal protective equipment by healthcare and other workers"
Compare and contrast the ranty absurdity of Jezbollah's question which Bozza just bats away vs the forensic take apart of the massive contradictions in the various bits of government advice
No Labour member should be allowed to use the term Jezbollah IMO.
Not very comradely is it?
Maybe Jezbollah shouldn't be in the Labour Party given his history of antisemitism? Would be a cleaner solution.
I wasnt talking to you.
I was talking to a fellow member
As a member of another party I'd want to see racist bigots kicked out of my own party, even if I quit my party while it was led by a racist bigot.
If your "comrade" thinks the same I respect him for that. Your "comrade" shouldn't put party politics over standing up to racism.
What would have been normal between friendly states is either that the US would have waived immunity (as the person was not performing diplomatic immunity, and the prosecution would not have been by an enemy state for political gain), or that the US would have prosecuted her on return to the US for the crime and she would have served any sentence handed down in US custody.
Members of the Faculty of Advocates have just been granted key worker status. Means I or any member of my family have the right to be tested if we become symptomatic. Whoopee. Not sure I have ever been thought "key" before and the less said about being a worker the better.
Well the legal system is just as much infrastructure as (say) the railways. Not sure I'd exactly leap at the chance of a test though. I watched one being done the other day and it looked quite an unpleasant experience. They need to go deep multiple times in multiple places to get what they need. There's no way it could be done randomly and at scale without stick or carrot.
Geoff Barton from the Association of School and College Leaders says his organisation is "a bit disappointed" by the guidance that the youngest children are set to be the first to go back to school. He says the younger children are the ones who will find the distancing rules harder to understand - and that they will be harder for teachers to control.
-----
Dickhead....young kids are at zero risk, AND the science appears to show they don't transmit it to adults. You know perhaps Witty and Vallance have looked at the scientific literature on this and not gone well send the rug rats back first for no reason in particular.
I bet if they had said send back older kids first, they would have replied, but they are higher risk to teachers and each other.
The children being non transmitters line has not been pushed as heavily as in the early days, and I've not read up the current state of knowledge. However, a lot of that early truth that was true then wasn't true does turn.out to be true after all.
Each setting is different:
Nurseries: No way kids will social distance, but high staff: child ratios meaning adult-adult close contact difficult to avoid. But, staff generally young and non unionised.
Infants: Social distancing tricky, but anyone who has seen the two-by-two walking knows some corralling is possible. Staff ratios are modestly high, but adult closel contact should be minimisable. Send your younger teachers in.
Juniors: Awareness of social distancing, adult contacts minimisable, not a bad place. The need to socially distance kids from one another is still not necessarily the case.
Secondary: In classrooms social distancing should be OK. The staff room is again key, but
It's not been mentioned that children don't transmit the virus because studies have shown that it is not true. Hotspots in various schools have shown that (Germany, New Zealand, France etc.). The reason that not many have been seen recently is because schools shut down. Obvious, really.
At least we know that all children and staff will have to wear facemasks in primary as well as secondary now, though.
I teach infants at times and the idea that you can minimise contact is very wrong. The only way is to shut them in a room on their own, so they are not a good choice. Adults with them are pretty numerous and there's a lot of contact adult to child to adult and so on. Juniors could be taught outside in small groups, probably. They might be the best to target as a beginning. Secondary you are into an age where children get the virus as easily as adults and, dangerously, they can do so and not really know, making them into transmitters between families and other adults around them. This is why nothing apart from 'seeing' a couple of classes has been mentioned for that age group.
The message that my (independent) school is sending is a reminder that we are independent and we can make our own decisions. I'm sure that this private/state divide is going to be something that is going to be publicised and, frankly, it is another area where the poorest are being made more vulnerable because of their lack of agency.
Watching the parliamentary debate, Boris was fine and on reasonable form, except for a 3-minute spell when he had to answer Starmer's precise questions. Responding to Starmer he seemed to fall apart, was rather nervous, and bumbled a lot. It seems to me that, for whatever reason, he rather fears (and actually respects) Starmer, and is worried about his own ability to master the detail he will need as this continues over the coming months and years in their sparring sessions. Boris knows that he can't just swat Starmer aside with a joke, a bon mot or a bit of Latin, but needs to take him seriously. So, I expect Starmer will, over time, get the upper hand through his methodical approach, and Boris's reputation will take a hit.
Members of the Faculty of Advocates have just been granted key worker status. Means I or any member of my family have the right to be tested if we become symptomatic. Whoopee. Not sure I have ever been thought "key" before and the less said about being a worker the better.
Well the legal system is just as much infrastructure as (say) the railways. Not sure I'd exactly leap at the chance of a test though. I watched one being done the other day and it looked quite an unpleasant experience. They need to go deep multiple times in multiple places to get what they need. There's no way it could be done randomly and at scale without stick or carrot.
Yeah, not rushing for one myself even if freely available.
Sir Richard Branson is selling a stake in Virgin Galactic to raise $500m to prop up his other businesses including Virgin Atlantic.
To whom? I'm sure he will find a buyer but I do find it curious how industries with such a poor historical return find such large investments. Airlines and railways are even better examples, since they have little chance of a sudden breakthrough and success.
More links at lockdownsceptics this afternoon to software engineers and epidemiologists taking down Ferguson's 13 year old code for the model that put UK in lockdown.
Watching the parliamentary debate, Boris was fine and on reasonable form, except for a 3-minute spell when he had to answer Starmer's precise questions. Responding to Starmer he seemed to fall apart, was rather nervous, and bumbled a lot. It seems to me that, for whatever reason, he rather fears (and actually respects) Starmer, and is worried about his own ability to master the detail he will need as this continues over the coming months and years in their sparring sessions. Boris knows that he can't just swat Starmer aside with a joke, a bon mot or a bit of Latin, but needs to take him seriously. So, I expect Starmer will, over time, get the upper hand through his methodical approach, and Boris's reputation will take a hit.
I'm only watching in my mind but this is nevertheless exactly what I'm seeing. Pleased to have it confirmed.
More links at lockdownsceptics this afternoon to software engineers and epidemiologists taking down Ferguson's 13 year old code for the model that put UK in lockdown.
“It is very difficult to look at the Ferguson code with any understanding of software engineering and conclude that this is good, or even tolerable,”
I thought the tech from Google whose job was to make the code more accessible said it wasn't actually that bad? I wonder if these people are reviewing it already know what they want to find before looking at it.
I wonder what it was at the peak, as this is from well after it.
Mrrrm, yeah.
On the other hand, govt models are assuming 16k current per day, more back then, and it's an infection that also hangs around a while. Long survey period too.
Does anybody agree with my Trump theory. It's clear to me he will get a 2nd term. I forecast he will introduce Ivanka into an important gov role around 2022. With a view of her becoming the first female president of the USA in November 2024.
Nurseries: No way kids will social distance, but high staff: child ratios meaning adult-adult close contact difficult to avoid. But, staff generally young and non unionised.
Infants: Social distancing tricky, but anyone who has seen the two-by-two walking knows some corralling is possible. Staff ratios are modestly high, but adult closel contact should be minimisable. Send your younger teachers in.
Juniors: Awareness of social distancing, adult contacts minimisable, not a bad place. The need to socially distance kids from one another is still not necessarily the case.
Secondary: In classrooms social distancing should be OK. The staff room is again key, but
This last point is not true. Even in the 16+ school groups they still unthinkingly show a something on their smartphone to friends with heads practically touching, or unthinkingly hugging friends etc.
Nurseries: No way kids will social distance, but high staff: child ratios meaning adult-adult close contact difficult to avoid. But, staff generally young and non unionised.
Infants: Social distancing tricky, but anyone who has seen the two-by-two walking knows some corralling is possible. Staff ratios are modestly high, but adult closel contact should be minimisable. Send your younger teachers in.
Juniors: Awareness of social distancing, adult contacts minimisable, not a bad place. The need to socially distance kids from one another is still not necessarily the case.
Secondary: In classrooms social distancing should be OK. The staff room is again key, but
This last point is not true. Even in the 16+ school groups they still unthinkingly show a something on their smartphone to friends with heads practically touching, or unthinkingly hugging friends etc.
These are also the 'risk takers' that police have been finding, particularly boys. It's cool and independent to ignore any form of distancing apparently (frontal lobe reasons?)
More links at lockdownsceptics this afternoon to software engineers and epidemiologists taking down Ferguson's 13 year old code for the model that put UK in lockdown.
Humanity has proved highly effective at finding medical countermeasures to infectious diseases, and is likely to do so for COVID-19; but this may take time. As quickly as possible, the Government must move to a more sustainable solution, where the continued restrictions described above can be lifted altogether. To enable this, the Government must develop, trial, manufacture and distribute reliable treatments or vaccines as swiftly as possible.
The virus is unlikely to die out spontaneously; nor is it likely to be eradicated. Only one human infectious disease - smallpox - has ever been eradicated. The Government must therefore develop either a treatment that enables us to manage it like other serious diseases or have people acquire immunity by vaccination.
It is possible a safe and effective vaccine will not be developed for a long time (or even ever), so while maximising the chances this will happen quickly where the Government can, it must not rely on this course of action happening. There are currently over 70 credible vaccine development programmes worldwide and the first UK human trial has begun at the University of Oxford.
Is there any indication or documentation whether socially distanced Personal Training is allowed?
They say work where you can't work from home go to work, which says it should be OK, and it fits within the "gatherings of 2" rule from the regulations.
Humanity has proved highly effective at finding medical countermeasures to infectious diseases, and is likely to do so for COVID-19; but this may take time. As quickly as possible, the Government must move to a more sustainable solution, where the continued restrictions described above can be lifted altogether. To enable this, the Government must develop, trial, manufacture and distribute reliable treatments or vaccines as swiftly as possible.
The virus is unlikely to die out spontaneously; nor is it likely to be eradicated. Only one human infectious disease - smallpox - has ever been eradicated. The Government must therefore develop either a treatment that enables us to manage it like other serious diseases or have people acquire immunity by vaccination.
It is possible a safe and effective vaccine will not be developed for a long time (or even ever), so while maximising the chances this will happen quickly where the Government can, it must not rely on this course of action happening. There are currently over 70 credible vaccine development programmes worldwide and the first UK human trial has begun at the University of Oxford.
Which is probably why challenge trials are seriously being discussed again...
More links at lockdownsceptics this afternoon to software engineers and epidemiologists taking down Ferguson's 13 year old code for the model that put UK in lockdown.
1. Clinton led Trump ON POLLING DAY and won by 2%. Analyses by psephologists in the know tend to suggest Biden is going to need a 3 or 4% lead.
What? Why? Biden should be strong in the mid-west, why's he got this humongous electoral vote disadvantage???
Fivethirtyeight, for example, have noted that while Biden has a lead in five swing states where there has been recent polling (North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania) the lead is less than the national polling lead.
The implication is that, to flip several of these states - and he needs to flip three or four reasonably delegate heavy states - he has rather less room to play with than his national polling lead.
The way I see it, if Biden matches Clinton, his Mid West strength alone will probably give him Pennsylvania and Michigan. But he does need one more than that. Ohio and Iowa are underpolled but look a stretch - Trump actually won them both pretty comfortably in 2016. His best other shot in that area is Wisconsin, where Biden's polling has been less good than he'd hope. After that, he needs to look at Florida, North Carolina or Arizona - all possibly winnable but he'll need a reasonable popular vote lead.
Comments
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths
(well, 7 if you include Blackford's 5...)
(and what a waste of tablet)
Not very comradely is it?
9.1 Does this guidance apply across the UK?
This guidance applies in England – people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should follow the specific rules in those parts of the UK.
If you live in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland additional guidance is available:
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland
FFS it`s never going to be safe!
50,000 bounceback loans totalling £5 billion
Implies average of £100k
But maximum bounceback loan is £50k!?
These UK figures are compiled from validated data provided by each of the four nations of the UK. Figures from Health Protection Scotland, Public Health Wales and the Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland) have always included tested cases outside hospital. Figures for England from 29 April onwards are provided by Public Health England and draw together several different data sources, including data from NHS England and Improvement, to produce this broader measure.
This approach allows us to compile deaths data on a daily basis using up-to-date figures across all settings. The data includes deaths with lab-confirmed COVID-19 reported as at 5pm the previous day. The amount of time between occurrence of death and reporting in these figures may vary slightly and in some cases could be a few days, so figures at 5pm may not include all deaths for that day. The PHE method draws on data from 3 data sources and individual records of deaths are included in the figures as soon as they are available in any of these 3 sources.
In rare instances, the daily count under the new measure may be lower than the old measure because some hospital deaths in the hospital-only data will include individuals who have already been included in the composite count. Individual deaths have already been reported in the PHE series on previous days.
We had a brainstorm and came up with 28 separate ideas to enable the 2m thing.Most of them are implemented now. Many will remain permanently i think as they are not really COVID specific but have led to us being more efficient in how we are organised...turns out we weren't working all that smartly time and motion wise anyway lol, virus or no virus...
The briefing from the government to the media last night had the stats of for instance only 1% of kids were in school, when 20% are children of key workers. Now some will have partners who aren't and been looking after them, but clearly large numbers of parents are so scared to let their kids to go to school, they would rather leave them at home on their own.
I was talking to a fellow member
Otherwise you'll look like a right tit.
Just repeating.
If your "comrade" thinks the same I respect him for that. Your "comrade" shouldn't put party politics over standing up to racism.
Right, I'm off. Play nicely, everyone.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/does-diplomatic-immunity-apply-american-diplomat-s-wife-fatal-crash-n1066011
What would have been normal between friendly states is either that the US would have waived immunity (as the person was not performing diplomatic immunity, and the prosecution would not have been by an enemy state for political gain), or that the US would have prosecuted her on return to the US for the crime and she would have served any sentence handed down in US custody.
https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1259875398378295296
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1259871194565742594?s=20
At least we know that all children and staff will have to wear facemasks in primary as well as secondary now, though.
I teach infants at times and the idea that you can minimise contact is very wrong. The only way is to shut them in a room on their own, so they are not a good choice. Adults with them are pretty numerous and there's a lot of contact adult to child to adult and so on. Juniors could be taught outside in small groups, probably. They might be the best to target as a beginning. Secondary you are into an age where children get the virus as easily as adults and, dangerously, they can do so and not really know, making them into transmitters between families and other adults around them. This is why nothing apart from 'seeing' a couple of classes has been mentioned for that age group.
The message that my (independent) school is sending is a reminder that we are independent and we can make our own decisions. I'm sure that this private/state divide is going to be something that is going to be publicised and, frankly, it is another area where the poorest are being made more vulnerable because of their lack of agency.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1259875465508130817
https://twitter.com/GR19702/status/1259876179382865925?s=20
Not complicated......
I seriously doubt it's a means of transmission.
The whole thing is a bit of a distraction.
https://twitter.com/TheBabaTee/status/1258503536134012928?s=20
https://lockdownsceptics.org/
“It is very difficult to look at the Ferguson code with any understanding of software engineering and conclude that this is good, or even tolerable,”
On the other hand, govt models are assuming 16k current per day, more back then, and it's an infection that also hangs around a while. Long survey period too.
Shall we tell them or not?
Is this a serology test? That would make a difference.
Humanity has proved highly effective at finding medical countermeasures to infectious diseases, and is likely to do so for COVID-19; but this may take time. As quickly as possible, the Government must move to a more sustainable solution, where the continued restrictions described above can be lifted altogether. To enable this, the Government must develop, trial, manufacture and distribute reliable treatments or vaccines as swiftly as possible.
The virus is unlikely to die out spontaneously; nor is it likely to be eradicated. Only one human infectious disease - smallpox - has ever been eradicated. The Government must therefore develop either a treatment that enables us to manage it like other serious diseases or have people acquire immunity by vaccination.
It is possible a safe and effective vaccine will not be developed for a long time (or even ever), so while maximising the chances this will happen quickly where the Government can, it must not rely on this course of action happening. There are currently over 70 credible vaccine development programmes worldwide and the first UK human trial has begun at the University of Oxford.
Is there any indication or documentation whether socially distanced Personal Training is allowed?
They say work where you can't work from home go to work, which says it should be OK, and it fits within the "gatherings of 2" rule from the regulations.
Dirk Bogarde: Have you any message you wish to send to General Greer?
Marius Göring: Kindly inform General Greer that he is an incompetent idiot.
WHO conditionally backs Covid-19 vaccine trials that infect people
‘Challenge’ studies would deliberately give coronavirus to healthy volunteers
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/08/who-conditionally-backs-covid-19-vaccine-trials-that-infect-people
The code is bad but the model generated results that matched the other models other countries have used.
Of course the model is correct isn't the answer the people "who want someone to blame" will accept.
The implication is that, to flip several of these states - and he needs to flip three or four reasonably delegate heavy states - he has rather less room to play with than his national polling lead.
The way I see it, if Biden matches Clinton, his Mid West strength alone will probably give him Pennsylvania and Michigan. But he does need one more than that. Ohio and Iowa are underpolled but look a stretch - Trump actually won them both pretty comfortably in 2016. His best other shot in that area is Wisconsin, where Biden's polling has been less good than he'd hope. After that, he needs to look at Florida, North Carolina or Arizona - all possibly winnable but he'll need a reasonable popular vote lead.