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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From a betting perspective the dangers of “fighting the last w

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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    He says new advice to wear face coverings on public transport and in enclosed spaces does not include the wearing of medical face masks.

    Just had to order a few cloth ones online, my employer said they will give me few disposable ones until they arrive.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Ok golf with a single other non-household member is permitted. Excellent.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310

    Interestingly since lockdown the Council haven't cut the grass at all in the area in front of where I live, its been completely overgrown and full of dandelions etc that my children have loved picking when they get out.

    Don't know if its a coincidence after the 'go back to work' message yesterday or not but there is someone from the Council outside now cutting the grass.

    I'm wondering about GP surgeries. Ours effectively closed down weeks ago and it's hard to get seen physically -

    "Have you got a cough?"
    "No".
    "A fever?"
    "No".
    "OK, so what's the problem then?"
    "Gone deaf and my eyeballs are bleeding."
    "But no cough or fever?"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    SKS pointing out MANY MANY areas that need URGENT clarification

    Best contribution i have seen from SKS

    Like people being unable to understand the concept of not traveling from England to Scotland?
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited May 2020
    PB Tories attack Starmer, no surprises there then. Non-Tories like him. No surprise there then.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    According to the BBC garden Centers are going to be opening from Wednesday: is that right?

    Not mentioned in the paper.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,289
    SKS once again shish-kebabing the government over the chaos of these sets of announcements
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289

    Manchester City's parent company has agreed a deal for Belgian second-tier outfit Lommel SK. They are the ninth club to join the City Football Group (CFG), which has stakes in teams playing in the United States, Japan, Australia and China, among others.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/52615577

    Maybe where Kyle Walker ends up playing next season.

    away from home with ladies of negotiable virtue.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884

    Starmer is going to have a problem doing this in 6 minutes

    He cannot help acting like a lawyer in court

    I like Starmer but he needs to be shorter and more succinct

    Concise compared to the bumbler opposite.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

    Useful discussion.

    Intuitively it seems obvious that masks must do some good. A major part of the problem is that lots of medical experts are so in terror of the anecdote police that they travel from the position that RCTs are in many cases the gold standard of evidence to the position that anything which is not an RCT is not evidence at all. It is very difficult to do an RCT of masks. Then again, nobody has done an RCT of the value of parachutes, but there is pretty good intuitive and anecdotal evidence that they are quite a lot better than placebo for those who have to jump out of aeroplanes.

    Theonly intuitive argument I can see is overconfidence inspired by mask wearing. As against that, I don't believe compulsory seatbelt wearing has had any such effect, and there is a reasonably compelling counterargument that visible wearing of masks by others will serve to remind the absent minded to socially distance.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236

    malcolmg said:

    Geoff Barton from the Association of School and College Leaders says his organisation is "a bit disappointed" by the guidance that the youngest children are set to be the first to go back to school. He says the younger children are the ones who will find the distancing rules harder to understand - and that they will be harder for teachers to control.

    -----

    Dickhead....young kids are at zero risk, AND the science appears to show they don't transmit it to adults. You know perhaps Witty and Vallance have looked at the scientific literature on this and not gone well send the rug rats back first for no reason in particular.

    I bet if they had said send back older kids first, they would have replied, but they are higher risk to teachers and each other.

    Just the other day a 6 week old baby died, are you completely stupid. They may be low risk but are certainly not zero risk.
    Reports of a 'Kawasaki-like disease' affecting kids are also still burning away in the background.
    I love the desperation of the long lock down supporters anxious to prove they haven;t been sold one of the biggest pups in history.

    Bit like today's ONS report on 'workforce deaths' of COVID. There have been more than two thousand! out of a workforce of....er......30 plus million. And out of a total number of deaths at the time of I think, 25,000?

    Indeed, is the ONS sample even large enough to be drawing these conclusions?
    I love the desperation of the 'liberate our economy at any cost' supporters ever ready to leap on any post that might prove inconvenient to their ardent hopes. Can you no just wander around with a wooden replica .50 cal mg and take selfies like your brethren?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    If people are confused by the new rules...they are going to have no idea how to manage this..

    People could start mixing in 'bubbles' of family and friends from NEXT MONTH under Boris's roadmap for exiting the lockdown

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8307695/Government-considers-allowing-people-reconnect-close-family-new-Covid-19-lockdown-rules.html
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352

    PB Tories attack Starmer, no surprises there then. Non-Tories like him. No surprise there then.

    You may note my criticism was constructive and I said I like him

    He is not beyond criticism to be fair
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    edited May 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Ok golf with a single other non-household member is permitted. Excellent.

    But not if they are married?

    (Sorry, this disease of asking stupid questions is just way too contagious....)
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352
    RobD said:

    Starmer mentions that all international arrivals will be subject to quarantine, not just those by air.

    Good
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    This is a completely incoherent reply.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems like they've done pretty well. What's the issue? :)
    You can always trust the Tories to fill their chums pockets, a bigger bunch of crooks you will never find.
    Any evidence at all that is what happened here?
    they got the contract without any tender, who picked them and why them.
    Might be because they were the only company able to do it?
    Possibly but highly unlikely.
    Possibly they were the only company to tender who had facilities to do the tests. As opposed to football agents etc...
    Point was I believe that there was no tender and they have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. Things should be done properly, these people are so arrogant they just don't care about how anything is perceived..
    Things were done properly. A company who were capable of delivering what was necessary was chosen and said company has delivered.
    Max, just because you say that does not mean it was done right in any way. At best it looks dodgy. How lucky that a firm with prominent Tory MP as consultant just happen to be only company invited to have a £133M contract.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Starmer seeming to have an issue with devolution wanting things done as "one United Kingdom".

    We're not one United Kingdom, we've got 4 nations of which 3 make their own decisions. Why should Boris dictate to Sturgeon etc or vice-versa. Does Starmer not understand the concept of devolution?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    Starmer seeming to have an issue with devolution wanting things done as "one United Kingdom".

    We're not one United Kingdom, we've got 4 nations of which 3 make their own decisions. Why should Boris dictate to Sturgeon etc or vice-versa. Does Starmer not understand the concept of devolution?

    Again, Germany's 16 different regions have different rules....They are the model we should be following, or at least that's what I hear on twitter.
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    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Boris points out the obvious, people are already at work following new Covid 19 procedures.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    PB Tories attack Starmer, no surprises there then. Non-Tories like him. No surprise there then.

    I have nothing against him but the problem is that there are different flavours of forensic. He sounds as if he is trying to persuade a High Court judge; he should sound as if he were trying to persuade a jury.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884

    SKS once again shish-kebabing the government over the chaos of these sets of announcements

    Credit to him he was excellent.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    This is a completely incoherent reply.

    Now, now, Starmer wasn't that bad ;)
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    This is an absolutely dreadful reply from Johnson, one of the worst I've seen in a long time, I have to be honest.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    MrEd said:

    OK Quincel, I am going to continue my discussion with you from last night on the back of what is a very well written piece :) I agree Trump won by the skin of his teeth on the votes last time but there are a number of arguments against the logic.

    First, take a look at those charts. There was a lot more volatility in Clinton vs Trump but what is clear is that Biden's lead over Trump has slumped. What is noticeable is that Trump's ratings have barely budged since the start of the timeline but Biden's has come down over 3%. His latest leads are down to 3-4%.

    Second, there is the enthusiasm factor. In fact, there was a piece on here several weeks ago talking about the enthusiasm gap Biden has to Trump. Trump's voters are enthused either by him or, if not him, by his judicial appointments. Biden's are less so and there are a noticeable chunk of Bernie's base that won't vote for Biden as he is seen as a Democrat stooge. That last factor impacted in 2016.

    At the end of the day, what happens in November will come down to (a) turnout and (b) how Independents vote. If you are hardcore Republican or Democrat, you will not change your mind nor propensity to vote. But think about independents.
    As Sir Norfolk says, Trump should get an incumbency boost. He is scoring better than Biden on the economy. Given what is happening in the world, it is hard to argue that it is Trump's fault the economy has gone downhill. People will be looking for who will lead them out economically. I don't see Biden trumping Trump. Add in the China factor and more information (in Der Spiegel) that the Chinese hid information and that is likely to play in his favour.

    Then look at Biden. He has put out a fair few incoherent statements that have already been the subject of Republican adverts. As I said last night about the Tara Reade story, and Max PB stated, an increasing number of voters (and these will be people who are disproportionately independents) are unhappy about the seeming hypocrisy of the Democrats in attacking Reade whilst saying Blasey Ford had to be believed. The latest line that nothing happened because Obama vetted him as VP somewhat fell apart when a local newspaper in California found a possible reference in court documents from the 90s. And the Republicans are now making increasing noises about Obama (and Biden) framing Michael Flynn. That won't convince the Dems and it might not convince many independents but it will boost Republican turnout and, if further details emerge about Biden's role, that will cause further controversy.

    I wouldn't bet my house on Trump but I certainly wouldn't on Biden. As I said FPT, I think there is good value in putting a 100/1 bet on Harris, Warren or Klobuchar as the Democrat nomination (so betting on JB stepping down) than backing him in November.

    Firstly, thank you for your kind assessment of my article.

    Regarding our disagreement, I think it comes down to two points which aren't really reconcilable:

    1. Whether Biden is particularly weak and has a meaningful risk of being replaced; and
    2. Whether the factors you identify re: China, Flynn, Reade, and so on are more or less significant than the ones I pointed to (the general polls, the state polls, Clinton's unusually low favourability, and Trump's entrenched ratings).

    On Point 1, I just can't believe Biden will go. I don't think it is impossible, and I accept I don't really have an argument why his risk is so low, but I intuitively feel that it is immensely difficult for a major party to ditch a presumptive nominee these days. 'The machine' is too large to turn around.

    On Point 2 I have a slightly different view. I think we can't really reconcile because we don't disagree with anything the other is saying (or not much) but we just value the points differently. And ultimately it is a subjective judgement call on which factors are more important each election, making this a classic situation of 'You may be right, but I think you probably aren't'. It isn't that I think any of what you say is wrong, I just think it is outweighed by other factors. And you think the same of me.

    Time will tell, and good luck with your betting.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems like they've done pretty well. What's the issue? :)
    You can always trust the Tories to fill their chums pockets, a bigger bunch of crooks you will never find.
    Any evidence at all that is what happened here?
    they got the contract without any tender, who picked them and why them.
    Might be because they were the only company able to do it?
    Possibly but highly unlikely.
    Possibly they were the only company to tender who had facilities to do the tests. As opposed to football agents etc...
    Point was I believe that there was no tender and they have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. Things should be done properly, these people are so arrogant they just don't care about how anything is perceived..
    Things were done properly. A company who were capable of delivering what was necessary was chosen and said company has delivered.
    Max, just because you say that does not mean it was done right in any way. At best it looks dodgy. How lucky that a firm with prominent Tory MP as consultant just happen to be only company invited to have a £133M contract.
    They were the only company that put themselves forwards, there's a difference.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems like they've done pretty well. What's the issue? :)
    You can always trust the Tories to fill their chums pockets, a bigger bunch of crooks you will never find.
    Any evidence at all that is what happened here?
    they got the contract without any tender, who picked them and why them.
    Might be because they were the only company able to do it?
    Possibly but highly unlikely.
    Possibly they were the only company to tender who had facilities to do the tests. As opposed to football agents etc...
    Point was I believe that there was no tender and they have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. Things should be done properly, these people are so arrogant they just don't care about how anything is perceived..
    You made a claim that the contract was somehow inappropriately obtained. I don't think there's any evidence of that, is there?
    I made no such claim , I said it looked suspicious, and there is no evidence that it is not inappropriate either , having been done behind closed doors with one company and no tender whatsoever and that company just happening to have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. We will never know as they will have it well hidden.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    Who is this clown from Essex?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems like they've done pretty well. What's the issue? :)
    You can always trust the Tories to fill their chums pockets, a bigger bunch of crooks you will never find.
    Any evidence at all that is what happened here?
    they got the contract without any tender, who picked them and why them.
    Might be because they were the only company able to do it?
    Possibly but highly unlikely.
    Possibly they were the only company to tender who had facilities to do the tests. As opposed to football agents etc...
    Point was I believe that there was no tender and they have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. Things should be done properly, these people are so arrogant they just don't care about how anything is perceived..
    You made a claim that the contract was somehow inappropriately obtained. I don't think there's any evidence of that, is there?
    I made no such claim , I said it looked suspicious, and there is no evidence that it is not inappropriate either , having been done behind closed doors with one company and no tender whatsoever and that company just happening to have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. We will never know as they will have it well hidden.
    Sorry if I misinterpreted what you said, Malc. I thought you were suggesting that there was some impropriety in the way the contrast was obtained.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360

    Pro_Rata said:

    Geoff Barton from the Association of School and College Leaders says his organisation is "a bit disappointed" by the guidance that the youngest children are set to be the first to go back to school. He says the younger children are the ones who will find the distancing rules harder to understand - and that they will be harder for teachers to control.

    -----

    Dickhead....young kids are at zero risk, AND the science appears to show they don't transmit it to adults. You know perhaps Witty and Vallance have looked at the scientific literature on this and not gone well send the rug rats back first for no reason in particular.

    I bet if they had said send back older kids first, they would have replied, but they are higher risk to teachers and each other.

    The children being non transmitters line has not been pushed as heavily as in the early days, and I've not read up the current state of knowledge. However, a lot of that early truth that was true then wasn't true does turn.out to be true after all.

    Each setting is different:

    Nurseries: No way kids will social distance, but high staff: child ratios meaning adult-adult close contact difficult to avoid. But, staff generally young and non unionised.

    Infants: Social distancing tricky, but anyone who has seen the two-by-two walking knows some corralling is possible. Staff ratios are modestly high, but adult closel contact should be minimisable. Send your younger teachers in.

    Juniors: Awareness of social distancing, adult contacts minimisable, not a bad place. The need to socially distance kids from one another is still not necessarily the case.

    Secondary: In classrooms social distancing should be OK. The staff room is again key, but
    Swedish Mr Witty stated at the weekend, that not a single case of transmission in Nordic "primary" schools from pupils to teachers. The only transmission had been from teacher to teacher.
    I would love to know how they could be so confident of that. Although teachers have always been pretty notorious about what they do with their spare time.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    edited May 2020
    So no change to the SI. Unless it is yet to change as of this moment. The current FAQ links to the existing one.

    Change in the guidance, however, means you can now do some sports, sit on a bench, or sunbathe (with the same one other person from outside your household) without plod getting involved.
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    This is an absolutely dreadful reply from Johnson, one of the worst I've seen in a long time, I have to be honest.

    In your completely neutral opinion of course.;)
    As neutral as yours.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    According to the BBC garden Centers are going to be opening from Wednesday: is that right?

    Not mentioned in the paper.
    But it is in the FAQ:

    1.1 What can I do from Wednesday 13 May that I couldn’t do before?
    There will be a limited number of things you can do on Wednesday that you cannot do now:

    spend time outdoors – for example

    sitting and enjoying the fresh air, picnicking, or sunbathing

    meet one other person from a different household outdoors - following social distancing guidelines

    exercise outdoors as often as you wish - following social distancing guidelines

    use outdoor sports courts or facilities, such as a tennis or basketball court, or golf course – with members of your household, or one other person while staying 2 metres apart

    go to a garden centre
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Not enough tweed and tartan from Blackford.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TOPPING said:

    So no change to the SI. Unless it is yet to change as of this moment. The current FAQ links to the existing one.

    Change in the guidance, however, means you can now do some sports, sit on a bench, or sunbathe (with the same one other person from outside your household) without plod getting involved.

    Starmer was waving the command paper around. I assume the changes are coming.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    dr_spyn said:

    Who is this clown from Essex?

    Can you narrow it down a bit?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    Full data for yesterday:

    100,490 tests
    3,877 positive

    1,186 Pillar 1
    2,691 Pillar 2

    Deaths in all settings 210 - lower due to timing issues than:
    Deaths in hospital 229

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    RobD said:

    Starmer mentions that all international arrivals will be subject to quarantine, not just those by air.

    Good
    Will do a lot of good for food deliveries I am sure.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Starmer mentions that all international arrivals will be subject to quarantine, not just those by air.

    Good
    Will do a lot of good for food deliveries I am sure.
    Those surely must be exempt! :o
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems like they've done pretty well. What's the issue? :)
    You can always trust the Tories to fill their chums pockets, a bigger bunch of crooks you will never find.
    Any evidence at all that is what happened here?
    they got the contract without any tender, who picked them and why them.
    Might be because they were the only company able to do it?
    Possibly but highly unlikely.
    Possibly they were the only company to tender who had facilities to do the tests. As opposed to football agents etc...
    Point was I believe that there was no tender and they have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. Things should be done properly, these people are so arrogant they just don't care about how anything is perceived..
    Things were done properly. A company who were capable of delivering what was necessary was chosen and said company has delivered.
    Max, just because you say that does not mean it was done right in any way. At best it looks dodgy. How lucky that a firm with prominent Tory MP as consultant just happen to be only company invited to have a £133M contract.
    They were the only company that put themselves forwards, there's a difference.
    do you have proof of that.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Quincel said:

    MrEd said:

    Firstly, thank you for your kind assessment of my article.

    Regarding our disagreement, I think it comes down to two points which aren't really reconcilable:

    1. Whether Biden is particularly weak and has a meaningful risk of being replaced; and
    2. Whether the factors you identify re: China, Flynn, Reade, and so on are more or less significant than the ones I pointed to (the general polls, the state polls, Clinton's unusually low favourability, and Trump's entrenched ratings).

    On Point 1, I just can't believe Biden will go. I don't think it is impossible, and I accept I don't really have an argument why his risk is so low, but I intuitively feel that it is immensely difficult for a major party to ditch a presumptive nominee these days. 'The machine' is too large to turn around.

    On Point 2 I have a slightly different view. I think we can't really reconcile because we don't disagree with anything the other is saying (or not much) but we just value the points differently. And ultimately it is a subjective judgement call on which factors are more important each election, making this a classic situation of 'You may be right, but I think you probably aren't'. It isn't that I think any of what you say is wrong, I just think it is outweighed by other factors. And you think the same of me.

    Time will tell, and good luck with your betting.
    Thank you Quincel and please more articles from you.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    Boris points out the obvious, people are already at work following new Covid 19 procedures.

    Quite, and have been since March.

    For me and the area of my company my team works in, yesterday's announcement essentially changed exactly nothing.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2020
    Is it just me or has Sadiq Khan been very very very quiet during this crisis?

    In places like New York you have the Mayor giving press conferences on a regular basis (in addition to obviously the Governor).
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310

    According to the BBC garden Centers are going to be opening from Wednesday: is that right?

    Ah so I WAS right. Humble pie eaten by me on PT therefore regurgitated.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good to see Boris put Blackford in his place!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Starmer mentions that all international arrivals will be subject to quarantine, not just those by air.

    Good
    Will do a lot of good for food deliveries I am sure.
    Access through France allows imports
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    According to the BBC garden Centers are going to be opening from Wednesday: is that right?

    Not mentioned in the paper.
    But it is in the FAQ:

    1.1 What can I do from Wednesday 13 May that I couldn’t do before?
    There will be a limited number of things you can do on Wednesday that you cannot do now:

    spend time outdoors – for example

    sitting and enjoying the fresh air, picnicking, or sunbathing

    meet one other person from a different household outdoors - following social distancing guidelines

    exercise outdoors as often as you wish - following social distancing guidelines

    use outdoor sports courts or facilities, such as a tennis or basketball court, or golf course – with members of your household, or one other person while staying 2 metres apart

    go to a garden centre
    I imagine social distancing basketball to be quite a high scoring affair.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Blackford better than SKS, and good return by Johnson.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2020
    "PM: People should apply common sense"

    Twitter aren't going to like that. It seems like this "use common sense" message was also briefed to journalists.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,478
    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    He says new advice to wear face coverings on public transport and in enclosed spaces does not include the wearing of medical face masks.

    Clearly they think it will cause a shortage for healthcare workers.
    As I said down-thread, I bet in the redacted SAGE advice there was probably "masks could be helpful in slowing transmission, but we are feel that there is possibility for panic and hoarding leading to medical personnel shortages"...
    No, watch the Van Tam video I linked below. He is quite explicit, he believes what he is saying. He even says "there is no evidence that mask wearing by people who are well has any benefit".

    Take a monent and I digest that. It means the deputy chief medical officer for England does not understand the conceot of aymptomatic transmission: the fact you can appear well and feel well but still be shedding viral loads all over the shop.

    It is precisely this characteristic which makes coronavirus so dangerous. And our expert does not comprehend this very very basic and important fact.

    No wonder the UK has so mightily fucked up its corona response. Our scientists are cretins. After the crisis has ebbed they all need to be cleared out. Get rid, not fit for purpose.
    I think that phrase was instead chosen very carefully - the public who are well pose zero risk whether wearing a mask or not (the fact that determining who is well is not really possible is conveniently not addressed). If the evidence of protection for the wearer of a mask is mixed (as I think is still the case, particularly if you consider any old mask rather than ones designed for bio-protection) then the statement is not untrue. So, technically a true statement supporting the policy of not asking public to wear masks, but answering a narrow question that nobody was asking.

    On the last paragraph, I don't see convincing evidence (yet) that the UK has done particularly badly*. I don't discount it, but I just don't see the evidence yet. Which scientists do you want kicking out? The ones whose modelling led to the government imposing lock down afterall? I thought you were in favour of that.

    * Care homes excepted, although even there it's not obvious that the stupid things they've done are more stupid than other countries.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    How many would you prefer?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310
    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

    Useful discussion.

    Intuitively it seems obvious that masks must do some good. A major part of the problem is that lots of medical experts are so in terror of the anecdote police that they travel from the position that RCTs are in many cases the gold standard of evidence to the position that anything which is not an RCT is not evidence at all. It is very difficult to do an RCT of masks. Then again, nobody has done an RCT of the value of parachutes, but there is pretty good intuitive and anecdotal evidence that they are quite a lot better than placebo for those who have to jump out of aeroplanes.

    Theonly intuitive argument I can see is overconfidence inspired by mask wearing. As against that, I don't believe compulsory seatbelt wearing has had any such effect, and there is a reasonably compelling counterargument that visible wearing of masks by others will serve to remind the absent minded to socially distance.

    Yes, that's the fallacy-trap which Mr Van Tam seems to have fallen into, like the great fat gormless moron he is.
    Hang on a second. Isn't that the super-sharp good egg who filleted the dreaded Pesto on live TV just a short while ago?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    How many would you prefer?
    None for me, but thanks for asking.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,766

    dr_spyn said:

    Are the French confused by the message from The Élysée Palace?

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1259540093305569280

    Probably. It seems to be in some sort of foreign language.
    Those French! It's like they have a different word for everything.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Devolution is a real mess, isn't it? One of Labour's disasters.

    Don't worry.. nationalism will be killed stone dead any day now.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Seems like they've done pretty well. What's the issue? :)
    You can always trust the Tories to fill their chums pockets, a bigger bunch of crooks you will never find.
    Any evidence at all that is what happened here?
    they got the contract without any tender, who picked them and why them.
    Might be because they were the only company able to do it?
    Possibly but highly unlikely.
    Possibly they were the only company to tender who had facilities to do the tests. As opposed to football agents etc...
    Point was I believe that there was no tender and they have a prominent Tory MP as a consultant. Things should be done properly, these people are so arrogant they just don't care about how anything is perceived..
    I have no idea about the specific here.

    But Randox is a fantastic company and one of Northern Ireland’s leading businesses. It’s a world leader in molecular diagnostics.

    I know you have a very high opinion of Owen Paterson, but I suspect that Randox’s capabilities had more of an impact that him whispering sweet nothings into various ears
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Questions almost all from tory MPs, does that just reflect the numbers?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    Devolution is a real mess, isn't it? One of Labour's disasters.

    What would your alternative have been?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    edited May 2020
    kinabalu said:

    According to the BBC garden Centers are going to be opening from Wednesday: is that right?

    Ah so I WAS right. Humble pie eaten by me on PT therefore regurgitated.
    My understanding is that garden centres open from Wednesday IF they can implement safe social distancing in those garden centres.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    Nothing in the FAQs regarding the furlough scheme.

    This is closest it comes, implying (I think) an end to the furlough scheme for all but those who work in sectors that the government is barring from opening:

    "4.2 What if they try to fire me because I won’t go to work but cannot work at home?

    We urge employers to take socially responsible decisions and listen to the concerns of their staff. Employers and employees should come to a pragmatic agreement about their working arrangements.

    If individuals need advice, they should approach ACAS where they can get impartial advice about work disputes."
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352

    Devolution is a real mess, isn't it? One of Labour's disasters.

    The present problems come down to devolved NHS and in Scotland and especially in Wales they have had problems getting the R rate down, so being able to manage their individual requirements does make sense
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    RobD said:

    It seems very one-way. How many French tourists are going to come to the UK on holiday? :p

    Can't really blame the French for preferring St Tropez to Clacton
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    edited May 2020
    Surely time to scarp Barnett formula.

    If Scotland wishes to run its own operation then high time for them to now fund it in full.

    Time for them to only get IT, NI, VAT, CT etc raised in Scotland and they then fund everything in Scotland.

    They then get charged for share of defence etc.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    Fabricants wig hasnt grown
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Are the French confused by the message from The Élysée Palace?

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1259540093305569280

    Probably. It seems to be in some sort of foreign language.
    Those French! It's like they have a different word for everything.
    except entrepreneur.*

    * that was always a shit point btw. entrepreneur does not mean "entrepreneur."
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    How many would you prefer?
    50!

    On which note, what do you call a bloke who scoffs 50 eggs and then throws up all over the place?

    Cool Hand Puke - :smile:
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352
    IshmaelZ said:

    Questions almost all from tory MPs, does that just reflect the numbers?

    Not sure that is correct
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    MikeL said:

    Full data for yesterday:

    100,490 tests
    3,877 positive

    1,186 Pillar 1
    2,691 Pillar 2

    Deaths in all settings 210 - lower due to timing issues than:
    Deaths in hospital 229

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths

    So deaths are roughly a quarter of the peak. Object 1: do not allow the NHS to be overwhelmed. Tick. Object 2: reduce the death rate to a more manageable level. Tick (ish). Object 3: find ways of reopening the economy without imperilling objects 1 and 2. Work in progress.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Typical Corbyn - wants everyone on welfare forever...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Fabricants wig hasnt grown

    Maybe his barber is open by post?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Fabricants wig hasnt grown

    Perhaps he cuts his own hair? ;)
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,289
    Michael Fabricant's hair even more twatty that Bozza's. Although a good question he asks about hope for a cleaner future as we insist that everyone drive everywhere as you'll catch the pox off the bus
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,286
    I so missed Jeremy Corbyn's totally moronic questions. What a blast from the past.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    There's a picture of Ian Blackford on teh BBC website being interviewed from home in front of what appears to be a tartan sheet stretched out on the wall behind him

    Ok then....
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    Corbyn "the death rate is so high". No it isn`t.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310

    kinabalu said:

    According to the BBC garden Centers are going to be opening from Wednesday: is that right?

    Ah so I WAS right. Humble pie eaten by me on PT therefore regurgitated.
    My understanding is that garden centres open from Wednesday IF they can implement safe social distancing in those garden centres.
    Right. Which most surely can because they are quite large.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,289
    Compare and contrast the ranty absurdity of Jezbollah's question which Bozza just bats away vs the forensic take apart of the massive contradictions in the various bits of government advice
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2020

    I so missed Jeremy Corbyn's totally moronic questions. What a blast from the past.

    Has Maureen from Margate been asking about the trade union rights of the local pigeons?
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    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347

    Boris points out the obvious, people are already at work following new Covid 19 procedures.

    Quite, and have been since March.

    For me and the area of my company my team works in, yesterday's announcement essentially changed exactly nothing.
    It drives me made that people keep saying there is no advice. There is an incredible amount.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    Surely Tunnock teacakes for SNP supporters. Have you no national pride?

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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
    Waste of a cream egg if you ask me
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236

    Devolution is a real mess, isn't it? One of Labour's disasters.

    What would your alternative have been?
    Tory SOP was to float around and promise all sorts of guff then completely ignore it when in office. I'm sure that would be exactly Nabavi's preferred alternative.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    He says new advice to wear face coverings on public transport and in enclosed spaces does not include the wearing of medical face masks.

    Clearly they think it will cause a shortage for healthcare workers.
    As I said down-thread, I bet in the redacted SAGE advice there was probably "masks could be helpful in slowing transmission, but we are feel that there is possibility for panic and hoarding leading to medical personnel shortages"...
    No, watch the Van Tam video I linked below. He is quite explicit, he believes what he is saying. He even says "there is no evidence that mask wearing by people who are well has any benefit".

    Take a monent and I digest that. It means the deputy chief medical officer for England does not understand the concept of asymptomatic transmission: the fact you can appear well and feel well but still be shedding viral loads all over the shop - therefore a mask is useful.

    It is precisely this characteristic, asymptomatic transmission, which makes coronavirus so uniquely dangerous. And our expert does not comprehend this very very basic and important fact.

    No wonder the UK has so mightily fucked up its corona response. Our scientists are cretins. After the crisis has ebbed they all need to be cleared out. Get RID
    Or may be he defines “well” as “not having the virus” rather than “having the virus but not having symptoms”
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
    Takes a while to melt, though, and all the more so if you've put lots up there.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    When will Corbyn learn - very, very few people care about inequality.

    People do care about a safety net for people who can't support themselves.

    But people do not want equality.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    He says new advice to wear face coverings on public transport and in enclosed spaces does not include the wearing of medical face masks.

    Clearly they think it will cause a shortage for healthcare workers.
    As I said down-thread, I bet in the redacted SAGE advice there was probably "masks could be helpful in slowing transmission, but we are feel that there is possibility for panic and hoarding leading to medical personnel shortages"...
    No, watch the Van Tam video I linked below. He is quite explicit, he believes what he is saying. He even says "there is no evidence that mask wearing by people who are well has any benefit".

    Take a monent and I digest that. It means the deputy chief medical officer for England does not understand the concept of asymptomatic transmission: the fact you can appear well and feel well but still be shedding viral loads all over the shop - therefore a mask is useful.

    It is precisely this characteristic, asymptomatic transmission, which makes coronavirus so uniquely dangerous. And our expert does not comprehend this very very basic and important fact.

    No wonder the UK has so mightily fucked up its corona response. Our scientists are cretins. After the crisis has ebbed they all need to be cleared out. Get RID
    Or may be he defines “well” as “not having the virus” rather than “having the virus but not having symptoms”
    Yes, I'm sure that is right.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,289

    I so missed Jeremy Corbyn's totally moronic questions. What a blast from the past.

    Has Maureen from Margate been asking about the trade union rights of the local pigeons?
    The pigeons should join the Unite Union. Or for the same effect much quicker just shat on their own heads.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,286

    I so missed Jeremy Corbyn's totally moronic questions. What a blast from the past.

    Has Maureen from Margate been asking about the trade union rights of the local pigeons?
    No it was one of Jeremy's own alotment grown questions.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Devolution is a real mess, isn't it? One of Labour's disasters.

    What would your alternative have been?
    Tory SOP was to float around and promise all sorts of guff then completely ignore it when in office. I'm sure that would be exactly Nabavi's preferred alternative.
    Sounds pretty sensible.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Boris calling for the British public's "common sense"

    Damn right too!

    Yep, once we know that the great British public will voluntarily limit themselves to 3 cream eggs up the bum we can rest easy.
    I'm not especially a fan of putting anything up your bum, but if that is what floats your boat then a cream egg as an item that melts sounds like a better idea than plastic or metal objects.
    Takes a while to melt, though, and all the more so if you've put lots up there.
    Not as long as glass bottles though. I'm not sure why anyone thinks sticking glass up there is a good idea 😱
This discussion has been closed.