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SystemSystem Posts: 12,623
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From a betting perspective the dangers of “fighting the last war”

On Boxing Day last year, a fortnight after the Tories won an 80 seat majority, a delighted family friend declared over lunch “I couldn’t believe the result. Politics has been so unpredictable, and no-one thought Boris would win big!”

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020
    US unemployment data is apocalyptic, and may exceed Great Depression levels, with a minimal social safety net and no further aid for the average voter forthcoming from Congress. By the time we reach November, a cold, impoverished population may well prefer to elect a turnip over Trump.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    What Happened??
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,596
    Third.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    CarlottaVance said:

    So the “super cautious” Labour Welsh administration (with the worst Covid rates and poorest testing) are opening garden centres, libraries and recycling centres, while the reckless Tory government in England are not.

    Our recycling centre reopened only due to the personal efforts of our Tory MP so claimed the MP and his cheerleaders on Fbook. When challenged by ordinary punters that this was probably a Bad Idea due to queuing and this virus said cheerleaders said the blame would lie with the Labour council for reopening it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    From BBC...

    In that statement he is expected to tell MPs more about the Covid-19 alert system, the use of face masks, and the return of professional football.

    That makes it sounds like the footy is coming back.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,525
    https://twitter.com/jennirsl/status/1259825618201513986
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    On topic, excellent piece, exactly right, the markets are wrong, fill your boots.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,596
    edited May 2020
    Just back from the park, and there is no one sitting about sunbathing or picnicking at all. Ungrateful b**tards.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    BluestBlue said:

    US unemployment data is apocalyptic, and may exceed Great Depression levels, with a minimal social safety net and no further aid for the average voter forthcoming from Congress. By the time we reach November, a cold, impoverished population may well prefer to elect a turnip over Trump.

    It would depend on whether the turnips in question were perceived as East Coast Liberals.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,667
    I assume this has already been done (can't wade through through the previous thread on Android even if I wanted to)?

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1259787912826302465?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    From BBC...

    In that statement he is expected to tell MPs more about the Covid-19 alert system, the use of face masks, and the return of professional football.

    That makes it sounds like the footy is coming back.

    Great news if so!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,667
    IanB2 said:

    Just back from the park, and there is no one sitting about sunbathing or picnicking at all. Ungrateful b**tards.

    All at work I assume.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    From BBC...

    In that statement he is expected to tell MPs more about the Covid-19 alert system, the use of face masks, and the return of professional football.

    That makes it sounds like the footy is coming back.

    Great news if so!
    Watching the human cock fighting at the weekend, no crowds for sports is a weird viewing experience.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    From BBC...

    In that statement he is expected to tell MPs more about the Covid-19 alert system, the use of face masks, and the return of professional football.

    That makes it sounds like the footy is coming back.

    Shame. I was hoping the Lockdown would save West Ham from relegation.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    Theuniondivvie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from the park, and there is no one sitting about sunbathing or picnicking at all. Ungrateful b**tards.

    All at work I assume.
    Illegal under the current SI. That may change by Wednesday, may not...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Great article Pip!

    I hope, hope, hope you are right. Best thing for the world if Trump goes, even if the replacement is someone who should then retire promptly. Just hope he's got a good Veep pick.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1259821103528189953?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    From BBC...

    In that statement he is expected to tell MPs more about the Covid-19 alert system, the use of face masks, and the return of professional football.

    That makes it sounds like the footy is coming back.

    Great news if so!
    Watching the human cock fighting at the weekend, no crowds for sports is a weird viewing experience.
    Its going to be very strange having no crowds at Anfield when the title is/has been won. But I'm not worried about fans crowding, the fans will show respect.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    Fighting the last war also explains why somebody out there seems to be somehow convinced that the Democrats are going to nominate Hillary Clinton.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from the park, and there is no one sitting about sunbathing or picnicking at all. Ungrateful b**tards.

    All at work I assume.
    Illegal under the current SI. That may change by Wednesday, may not...
    Which provisions would that be illegal under?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    What 2016 showed is it is polls in the key swing states e.g. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida that matter, not the national popular vote totals
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I assume this has already been done (can't wade through through the previous thread on Android even if I wanted to)?

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1259787912826302465?s=20

    How many of them were working throughout?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    edited May 2020
    209 new deaths in England, of which ~30 are from more than 2 weeks or more ago.

    Last -1 to -3 day reporting period, slightly down on yesterday numbers, 139 vs 148.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-11-May-2020.xlsx

    Incoming headline....number of deaths rise again.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,667
    Guardian trolling or just stupid?

    https://twitter.com/RobertGlen3/status/1259751123847708672?s=20
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    209 new deaths in England, of which ~30 are from more than 2 weeks or more ago.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-11-May-2020.xlsx

    weekend effect but positive I think
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I assume this has already been done (can't wade through through the previous thread on Android even if I wanted to)?

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1259787912826302465?s=20

    Factory and many construction workers are generally more skilled than hospitality workers but the latter are still not able to return to work
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,402
    I tend to agree with this article but with two important notes of caution:

    1. Clinton led Trump ON POLLING DAY and won by 2%. Analyses by psephologists in the know tend to suggest Biden is going to need a 3 or 4% lead. So the chart showing a polling lead isn't always showing an electoral college lead, in all likelihood.

    2. Trump has the advantage of incumbency that neither candidate had in 2016. It does TEND to be the case that undecideds break for the devil they know, although it's hard to see how that will play out with such a devisive devil as Donald.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    HYUFD said:

    What 2016 showed is it is polls in the key swing states e.g. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida that matter, not the national popular vote totals

    That would be great if the state polls were reliable, but if you were trying to call 2016 based on state polls you'd be seeing things like this:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I assume this has already been done (can't wade through through the previous thread on Android even if I wanted to)?

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1259787912826302465?s=20

    Factory and many construction workers are generally more skilled than hospitality workers but the latter are still not able to return to work
    Erm...precisely what sort of 'hospitality' do you have in mind?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,344
    edited May 2020
    Great header. As I`m regulary saying, I`ve been building up a big position against Trump over the last three months. I`ll go in even bigger now. There`s some value in the state betting I think, I`m on Dems in N Carolina and Iowa.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Guardian trolling or just stupid?

    https://twitter.com/RobertGlen3/status/1259751123847708672?s=20

    Plenty of beautiful places in England. Likely to disappear off into the Pennines in the car once I can get a free day...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    An excellent, very well-argued piece. I’m cautious precisely because it matches my own preconceptions.

    How could this go wrong? Joe Biden might blow up beforehand - this might happen in one of three ways: he might die or become too ill to continue; he might be prevailed upon to step down because of his murky sexual history; or he might be prevailed upon to step down because his faculties have waned. Or Donald Trump may outcampaign Joe Biden.

    If the campaign is about Donald Trump, I can’t see him winning. If he can make it about his opponent, I expect he’ll win - Joe Biden has a lot of baggage.

    In the end, I agree with @Quincel.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:


    1. Clinton led Trump ON POLLING DAY and won by 2%. Analyses by psephologists in the know tend to suggest Biden is going to need a 3 or 4% lead.

    What? Why? Biden should be strong in the mid-west, why's he got this humongous electoral vote disadvantage???
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    209 new deaths in England, of which ~30 are from more than 2 weeks or more ago.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-11-May-2020.xlsx

    weekend effect but positive I think
    Won't be in 10-14 days once all the government-encouraged VE Day pissup infections start to smash their way into the figures.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,261
    IanB2 said:

    Just back from the park, and there is no one sitting about sunbathing or picnicking at all. Ungrateful b**tards.

    Alert sunbathing is fine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    edited May 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    209 new deaths in England, of which ~30 are from more than 2 weeks or more ago.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-11-May-2020.xlsx

    weekend effect but positive I think
    I looks like there is probably a bit of a plateau in the fall at the moment. There is still an underlying issue of new infections are too high, somewhere between 15-20k new ones a day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from the park, and there is no one sitting about sunbathing or picnicking at all. Ungrateful b**tards.

    Alert sunbathing is fine.
    Who isn't alert for the rain when sunbathing in Britain?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,345
    edited May 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    209 new deaths in England, of which ~30 are from more than 2 weeks or more ago.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-11-May-2020.xlsx

    weekend effect but positive I think
    I looks like there is probably a bit of a plateau in the fall at the moment. There is still an underlying issue of new infections are too high, somewhere between 15-20k new ones a day.
    image

    Lowest initial Sunday number (45) since the beginning of March
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    The announcement from Transport for London (TfL) also says:

    The requirement to maintain 2m (6ft) social distancing wherever possible means that TfL will only be able to carry around 13-15% of the normal number of passengers on the Tube and bus networks even when 100% of services are operating once again

    This isn't going to work out well.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,525
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Erm...precisely what sort of 'hospitality' do you have in mind?

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1259821636720697344
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    edited May 2020
    Here's the document

    https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6887280/FINAL-6-6637-CO-HMG-C19-Recovery-FINAL-110520-v1.pdf

    Edited to link the PDF directly
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,122
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from the park, and there is no one sitting about sunbathing or picnicking at all. Ungrateful b**tards.

    Alert sunbathing is fine.
    Who isn't alert for the rain when sunbathing in Britain?
    And no chance of dozing off in this weather.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    edited May 2020
    Well we got there in the end....I am not going to be alone wearing my respirator mask and goggles...

    The public will be advised to wear face coverings in crowded places and wash their clothes regularly, as the government imposes “smarter controls” in England to limit the spread the coronavirus until a successful treatment or vaccine is found.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/public-advised-wear-face-masks-coronavirus-lockdown-easing-plan-for-england

    Interesting about the clothes washing. I don't think people really know about this being a risk. Listening to ER doctors say they never go into their house without stripping down and placing everything in the washing machine, brought it home to me.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,344
    AlastairMeeks said:

    An excellent, very well-argued piece. I’m cautious precisely because it matches my own preconceptions.

    How could this go wrong? Joe Biden might blow up beforehand - this might happen in one of three ways: he might die or become too ill to continue; he might be prevailed upon to step down because of his murky sexual history; or he might be prevailed upon to step down because his faculties have waned. Or Donald Trump may outcampaign Joe Biden.

    If the campaign is about Donald Trump, I can’t see him winning. If he can make it about his opponent, I expect he’ll win - Joe Biden has a lot of baggage.

    In the end, I agree with @Quincel.

    Agree with your thoughts re: Biden. That`s why most of my bets are to LAY Trump rather than backing Biden.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,667
    AlastairMeeks said:

    An excellent, very well-argued piece. I’m cautious precisely because it matches my own preconceptions.

    How could this go wrong? Joe Biden might blow up beforehand - this might happen in one of three ways: he might die or become too ill to continue; he might be prevailed upon to step down because of his murky sexual history; or he might be prevailed upon to step down because his faculties have waned. Or Donald Trump may outcampaign Joe Biden.

    If the campaign is about Donald Trump, I can’t see him winning. If he can make it about his opponent, I expect he’ll win - Joe Biden has a lot of baggage.

    In the end, I agree with @Quincel.

    I can't remember how much the debates affected the result last time (I recall Trump was his usual ghastly self so not much I guess), but they really are going to be a shitshow this time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,345
    edmundintokyo said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:


    1. Clinton led Trump ON POLLING DAY and won by 2%. Analyses by psephologists in the know tend to suggest Biden is going to need a 3 or 4% lead.

    What? Why? Biden should be strong in the mid-west, why's he got this humongous electoral vote disadvantage???
    Also, unless Biden's advisers are as dumb as a bag of hammers, they will not repeat the mistake that Hillary made in ignoring the electoral vote map.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    edited May 2020
    eadric said:

    Ten weeks late. Ten fucking weeks. I bought my first masks on February 14th

    I don't like bashing the government but this is a colossal public health error.

    https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1259830859303133184?s=20

    I predict we are going to see bog roll style hoarding all over again....glad I already have my reusable respirator mask.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,596
    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    An excellent, very well-argued piece. I’m cautious precisely because it matches my own preconceptions.

    How could this go wrong? Joe Biden might blow up beforehand - this might happen in one of three ways: he might die or become too ill to continue; he might be prevailed upon to step down because of his murky sexual history; or he might be prevailed upon to step down because his faculties have waned. Or Donald Trump may outcampaign Joe Biden.

    If the campaign is about Donald Trump, I can’t see him winning. If he can make it about his opponent, I expect he’ll win - Joe Biden has a lot of baggage.

    In the end, I agree with @Quincel.

    Agree with your thoughts re: Biden. That`s why most of my bets are to LAY Trump rather than backing Biden.
    Safer to back the Dems as the winning party.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,082
    Let's be honest, the best way to keep people at home is to threaten them with arrest if they aren't wearing a face mask. Whether that's what the government is aiming for, I don't know.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1259830156279132161?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    edited May 2020
    61% of Tory voters and 54% of Leave voters support the new lockdown rules, only 32% of Labour voters and 35% of Remain voters do

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1259757225624711168?s=20
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,344
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    An excellent, very well-argued piece. I’m cautious precisely because it matches my own preconceptions.

    How could this go wrong? Joe Biden might blow up beforehand - this might happen in one of three ways: he might die or become too ill to continue; he might be prevailed upon to step down because of his murky sexual history; or he might be prevailed upon to step down because his faculties have waned. Or Donald Trump may outcampaign Joe Biden.

    If the campaign is about Donald Trump, I can’t see him winning. If he can make it about his opponent, I expect he’ll win - Joe Biden has a lot of baggage.

    In the end, I agree with @Quincel.

    Agree with your thoughts re: Biden. That`s why most of my bets are to LAY Trump rather than backing Biden.
    Safer to back the Dems as the winning party.
    Back dems at 2.0 or lay Trump at 2.1. I prefer the latter as I not 100% that Trump will run (I think we may have discussed this before?).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    Ten weeks late. Ten fucking weeks. I bought my first masks on February 14th

    I don't like bashing the government but this is a colossal public health error.

    https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1259830859303133184?s=20

    I predict we are going to see bog roll style hoarding all over again....glad I already have my reusable respirator mask.
    How the feck are they going to explain away their volte face on this?

    Did the science on masks completely change? Why did they tell us masks had no benefits? How many got infected, how many died, because the British government was lying to the people, or just enormously stupid?

    It was obvious from early Feb that masks were useful in reducing transmission from the wearer, as long as enough people wore them.

    Now the government looks duplicitous AND incompetent, in the middle of a terrible plague
    Their handling of PPE in recent weeks seems to answer this question. ;)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,344
    HYUFD said:

    61% of Tory voters and 54% of Leave vpters support the new lockdown rules, only 32% of Labour voters and 35% of Remain voters do

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1259757225624711168?s=20

    Risk-averse left wing tendency.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    HYUFD said:

    61% of Tory voters and 54% of Leave vpters support the new lockdown rules, only 32% of Labour voters and 35% of Remain voters do

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1259757225624711168?s=20

    But the public does not understand the “new” lockdown rules so what relevance does this polling have?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    https://twitter.com/RuthLeaEcon/status/1259828648976232450?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1259797076902318081?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    Ten weeks late. Ten fucking weeks. I bought my first masks on February 14th

    I don't like bashing the government but this is a colossal public health error.

    https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1259830859303133184?s=20

    I predict we are going to see bog roll style hoarding all over again....glad I already have my reusable respirator mask.
    How the feck are they going to explain away their volte face on this?

    Did the science on masks completely change? Why did they tell us masks had no benefits? How many got infected, how many died, because the British government was lying to the people, or just enormously stupid?

    It was obvious from early Feb that masks were useful in reducing transmission from the wearer, as long as enough people wore them.

    Now the government looks duplicitous AND incompetent, in the middle of a terrible plague
    I wouldn't be surprised in the redacted SAGE documents if is probably information that says something like masks do reduce transmission, but concern over supplies to front line staff mean we will recommend ....

    I haven't heard any plans from the government how they are now going to meet this need. Germany said last month they were setting up dedicated production in order to make 50 million a week by August.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/RuthLeaEcon/status/1259828648976232450?s=20

    That was enough of a rest for the environment... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    What 2016 showed is it is polls in the key swing states e.g. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida that matter, not the national popular vote totals

    That would be great if the state polls were reliable, but if you were trying to call 2016 based on state polls you'd be seeing things like this:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/
    Most Florida polls had Trump ahead and Trafalgar group had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Mr. Stocky, be interesting to see the gender split.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Have we discussed this one yet?
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20053207v1.full.pdf

    (Pre-pub, not peer reviewed) analysis suggesting similarities between SARS-CoV-2 and measles, mumps and rubella, notes that ages worst affected are those not in general receipt of MMR vaccine and correlates levels of rubella antibodies with COVID-19 severity. Not my field, mostly (the epi part does acknowledge the weakness of using population evidence) so I can't comment on the quality, but I would appreciate the irony of the wrongly vilified MMR vaccine offering some protection.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    HYUFD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    What 2016 showed is it is polls in the key swing states e.g. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida that matter, not the national popular vote totals

    That would be great if the state polls were reliable, but if you were trying to call 2016 based on state polls you'd be seeing things like this:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/
    Most Florida polls had Trump ahead and Trafalgar group had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania
    Now if only we had a way to work out which factoids to cherry-pick ahead of time...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    edited May 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
    If it helps stop droplets, probably? I can see surgical masks for sale on there.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,641
    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    I've just looked. Delivery in July!
  • Rob_downunderRob_downunder Posts: 130
    HYUFD said:

    What 2016 showed is it is polls in the key swing states e.g. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida that matter, not the national popular vote totals

    Arizona looks good for Biden this year, and the Dems have a good senate candidate in Gabby Giffords Husband down the ticket. This gives Biden extra breathing space.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
    You want to look for something that states it is at least P2 (FFP2) or better a P3 (or FFP3).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1259821103528189953?s=20

    A few days ago deaths were "trending down strongly" now they are "not rising" and "well below peak"

    When will people learn that the Swedish data gets significant up dates for 2 weeks, his dotted line should extend 1r days back, not 7.

    There was a point where people were saying no day had more than 100 deaths, now here are 4 days with over a hundred deaths.

    Laggy data is Laggy, especially after a weekend.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1259834342395838464?s=20
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,525
    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    I just got 2 emails offering to sell me masks.

    Seems legit...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    Scott_xP said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    I just got 2 emails offering to sell me masks.

    Seems legit...
    Probably the same emails that HMG received. ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    CarlottaVance said:

    twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1259834342395838464?s=20

    I can't work out why they didn't release the detailed document at the same time as the speech.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
    If it helps stop droplets, probably? I can see surgical masks for sale on there.
    The lead times are not quick. I can see there being big supply issues going forward.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    When travelling to outdoor spaces, it is important that people respect the rules in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and do not travel to different parts of the UK where it would be inconsistent with guidance or regulations issued by the relevant devolved administration.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884171/FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_WEB__1_.pdf
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
    If it helps stop droplets, probably? I can see surgical masks for sale on there.
    The lead times are not quick. I can see there being big supply issues going forward.
    Yep, but this has been trailed for weeks now. But look around, you'll be able to find some if you really need/want some.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,790
    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
    If it helps stop droplets, probably? I can see surgical masks for sale on there.
    The lead times are not quick. I can see there being big supply issues going forward.
    Yep, but this has been trailed for weeks now. But look around, you'll be able to find some if you really need/want some.
    I don’t actually want any, but if the Government is going to insist, they have to be readily available...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eadric said:

    Ten weeks late. Ten fucking weeks. I bought my first masks on February 14th

    I don't like bashing the government but this is a colossal public health error.

    https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1259830859303133184?s=20

    I predict we are going to see bog roll style hoarding all over again....glad I already have my reusable respirator mask.
    Calm yourself. They have been advised. It's not the law. They are advising that you should aim to cover your face with something. Not necessarily a proper facemask.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
    If it helps stop droplets, probably? I can see surgical masks for sale on there.
    The lead times are not quick. I can see there being big supply issues going forward.
    Yep, but this has been trailed for weeks now. But look around, you'll be able to find some if you really need/want some.
    I don’t actually want any, but if the Government is going to insist, they have to be readily available...
    That's why they aren't insisting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1259834342395838464?s=20

    I can't work out why they didn't release the detailed document at the same time as the speech.
    Yes, me too. It's a good document. Honest and cogent.

    It would have avoided ALL of this kerfuffle. Another silly blunder
    I bet it wasn't ready.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    edited May 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    You don't need to buy a face mask.

    "A face covering is not the same as a facemask such as the surgical masks or respirators used as part of personal protective equipment by healthcare and other workers"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    Amazon?
    And is a “dust” mask sufficient?
    If it helps stop droplets, probably? I can see surgical masks for sale on there.
    The lead times are not quick. I can see there being big supply issues going forward.
    Yep, but this has been trailed for weeks now. But look around, you'll be able to find some if you really need/want some.
    I don’t actually want any, but if the Government is going to insist, they have to be readily available...
    Why wouldn't you wear one? It just seems a no brainer to me. Also, it isn't just about protecting yourself, it is about reducing community spread.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1259837490908803073?s=20

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1259837492599160832?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    This is generous:

    Second, the Government will require all international arrivals not on a short list of exemptions to self-isolate in their accommodation for fourteen days on arrival into the UK. Where international travellers are unable to demonstrate where they would self-isolate, they will be required to do so in accommodation arranged by the Government. The Government is working closely with the devolved administrations to coordinate implementation across the UK.

    In Singapore and Australia when they introduced 14 day self quarantine if a non-resident arrived without a 14 day hotel reservation they were simply refused entry.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    TOPPING said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    You don't need to buy a face mask.

    "A face covering is not the same as a facemask such as the surgical masks or respirators used as part of personal protective equipment by healthcare and other workers"
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1259833361180307456?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1259833934579408904?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1259836527837949952?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    CarlottaVance said:

    This is generous:

    Second, the Government will require all international arrivals not on a short list of exemptions to self-isolate in their accommodation for fourteen days on arrival into the UK. Where international travellers are unable to demonstrate where they would self-isolate, they will be required to do so in accommodation arranged by the Government. The Government is working closely with the devolved administrations to coordinate implementation across the UK.

    In Singapore and Australia when they introduced 14 day self quarantine if a non-resident arrived without a 14 day hotel reservation they were simply refused entry.

    Would have been a great announcement 3 months ago...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    edited May 2020
    Did Raab say that it was ok to meet both your parents outside? If so he was wrong.

    "people can now also spend time outdoors subject to: not meeting up with any more than one person from outside your household"

    Couldn't immediately find anything about meeting your family indoors.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,053
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    From BBC...

    In that statement he is expected to tell MPs more about the Covid-19 alert system, the use of face masks, and the return of professional football.

    That makes it sounds like the footy is coming back.

    Great news if so!
    Watching the human cock fighting at the weekend, no crowds for sports is a weird viewing experience.
    Its going to be very strange having no crowds at Anfield when the title is/has been won. But I'm not worried about fans crowding, the fans will show respect.
    I'll save that one for the day we get the pics of thousands of Liverpool fans thronging the streets celebrating.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,122
    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I wouldn't be surprised in the redacted SAGE documents if is probably information that says something like masks do reduce transmission, but concern over supplies to front line staff mean we will recommend ....

    I haven't heard any plans from the government how they are now going to meet this need. Germany said last month they were setting up dedicated production in order to make 50 million a week by August.

    "Up until Monday, the UK government had resisted following governments of other countries which have already advised its people to wear face coverings when outside of their homes.

    "Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific advisor, said there had been a "long debate about the efficacy of face coverings" but that coverings can "reduce the probability" of the disease being transmitted by a person.

    "The view of SAGE was that there is evidence of a modest effect in terms of someone protecting someone else," he said."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-government-advises-people-to-wear-face-masks-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

    SAGE, in their wisdom, have finally realised what a drunken idiot like me realised ten weeks ago, and which every other government in the world realised about a month ago.

    This is not just a calamitous error, it is possibly a political car crash, because this is something where everyone can see that government was lying or inept, or both, and thereby causing unnecessary deaths.
    The research since the beginning of the pandemic has not been utterly conclusive, but it has without a shadow of doubt trended in one direction only. And the evidence of countries with high mask usage is unequivocal.

    It's quite possible that universal mask usage has a similar efficacy to lockdown, and it's an order of magnitude cheaper. Not that hard to manufacture, either, if government tried in the same way it did with ventilators.

    Associations of stay-at-home order and face-masking recommendation with trends in daily new cases and deaths of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the United States
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088237v1

    A simple model to show the relative risk of viral aerosol infection from breathing and the benefit of wearing masks in different settings with implications for Covid-19
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20082990v2

    To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300117?via=ihub

    Rationale for universal face masks in public against COVID‐19
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/resp.13834
    The role of community-wide wearing of face mask for control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic due to SARS-CoV-2
    https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30235-8/pdf

    Performance of fabrics for home-made masks against spread of respiratory infection through droplets: a quantitative mechanistic study
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.19.20071779v1

    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks
    https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252

    Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v3

    The scientific rationale for the use of simple masks or improvised facial coverings to trap exhaled aerosols and possibly reduce the breathborne spread of COVID-19
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1752-7163/ab8a55

    Impact of population mask wearing on Covid-19 post lockdown
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063529v1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    CarlottaVance said:

    This is generous:

    Second, the Government will require all international arrivals not on a short list of exemptions to self-isolate in their accommodation for fourteen days on arrival into the UK. Where international travellers are unable to demonstrate where they would self-isolate, they will be required to do so in accommodation arranged by the Government. The Government is working closely with the devolved administrations to coordinate implementation across the UK.

    In Singapore and Australia when they introduced 14 day self quarantine if a non-resident arrived without a 14 day hotel reservation they were simply refused entry.

    Arranged? Doesn't say anything about paying. :smiley::D
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1259834342395838464?s=20

    Look at the almost Orwellian grinding orthodoxy of those statements.

    V shaped recovery? in your dreams

    Any recovery at all? debatable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    edited May 2020
    Nigelb said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I wouldn't be surprised in the redacted SAGE documents if is probably information that says something like masks do reduce transmission, but concern over supplies to front line staff mean we will recommend ....

    I haven't heard any plans from the government how they are now going to meet this need. Germany said last month they were setting up dedicated production in order to make 50 million a week by August.

    "Up until Monday, the UK government had resisted following governments of other countries which have already advised its people to wear face coverings when outside of their homes.

    "Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific advisor, said there had been a "long debate about the efficacy of face coverings" but that coverings can "reduce the probability" of the disease being transmitted by a person.

    "The view of SAGE was that there is evidence of a modest effect in terms of someone protecting someone else," he said."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-government-advises-people-to-wear-face-masks-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

    SAGE, in their wisdom, have finally realised what a drunken idiot like me realised ten weeks ago, and which every other government in the world realised about a month ago.

    This is not just a calamitous error, it is possibly a political car crash, because this is something where everyone can see that government was lying or inept, or both, and thereby causing unnecessary deaths.
    The research since the beginning of the pandemic has not been utterly conclusive, but it has without a shadow of doubt trended in one direction only. And the evidence of countries with high mask usage is unequivocal.

    It's quite possible that universal mask usage has a similar efficacy to lockdown, and it's an order of magnitude cheaper. Not that hard to manufacture, either, if government tried in the same way it did with ventilators.
    1
    It is also a measure that really doesn't have any downsides. You tell people to wear one AND maintain social distancing. If they don't work, you haven't lost anything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,521
    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1259835888147759104?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1259836841844445185?s=20

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1259837201506017282?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,122
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So where am I supposed to buy a mask from?

    You don't need to buy a face mask.

    "A face covering is not the same as a facemask such as the surgical masks or respirators used as part of personal protective equipment by healthcare and other workers"
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1259833361180307456?s=20
    Even that's a bit shit.
    The clear scientific evidence is that altering two different fabrics is far more effective.
    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks
    https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    eadric said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I wouldn't be surprised in the redacted SAGE documents if is probably information that says something like masks do reduce transmission, but concern over supplies to front line staff mean we will recommend ....

    I haven't heard any plans from the government how they are now going to meet this need. Germany said last month they were setting up dedicated production in order to make 50 million a week by August.

    "Up until Monday, the UK government had resisted following governments of other countries which have already advised its people to wear face coverings when outside of their homes.

    "Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK's chief scientific advisor, said there had been a "long debate about the efficacy of face coverings" but that coverings can "reduce the probability" of the disease being transmitted by a person.

    "The view of SAGE was that there is evidence of a modest effect in terms of someone protecting someone else," he said."

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uk-government-advises-people-to-wear-face-masks-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

    SAGE, in their wisdom, have finally realised what a drunken idiot like me realised ten weeks ago, and which every other government in the world realised about a month ago.

    This is not just a calamitous error, it is possibly a political car crash, because this is something where everyone can see that government was lying or inept, or both, and thereby causing unnecessary deaths.
    The research since the beginning of the pandemic has not been utterly conclusive, but it has without a shadow of doubt trended in one direction only. And the evidence of countries with high mask usage is unequivocal.

    It's quite possible that universal mask usage has a similar efficacy to lockdown, and it's an order of magnitude cheaper. Not that hard to manufacture, either, if government tried in the same way it did with ventilators.
    1
    It is also a measure that really doesn't have any downsides. You tell people to wear one AND maintain social distancing. If they don't work, you haven't lost anything.
    Maybe people feel a bit more secure wearing one and wouldn't respect social distancing as much? If they don't work you've just increased transmission a bit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,788
    The government says it is considering allowing people to expand their household group to include one other household "in the same exclusive group", and is also examining how to let people gather in slightly larger groups, including for weddings.

    However, this would be part of the second stage and would not be possible until 1 June at the earliest, depending on the suppression of the virus.

    -----

    If the public were too confused by last nights pretty straight forward announcements, they are going to have their brain explode with this move.
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