I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.
Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.
The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.
If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.
The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.
Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ? If not, this is likely to end badly.
We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.
The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.
I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.
Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.
If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.
Assuming anyone more that an insignificant minority are actually catching it from hard surfaces. And in a way that actually delivers a dangerous viral load. The lack of development on information about how this thing spreads is incredibly frustrating (although maybe it is there and haven’t been paying close enough attention).
Re:mobile batteries - buy shares in manufacturers of portable chargers!
One of the good reasons for centralizing the data from a contact tracing app is that it would help in working out the details of the transmission characteristics.
It feels very significant that the decision on that has been made by a pair of large companies, rather than by governments.
Yes, and it's time we woke up to how much power they have.
I don't know enough about these apps to have an opinion on them, but it does scare me that private US companies might be able to make or break governments' public health emergency policies.
With this specific issue, it's completely the other way around.
Apple and Google have worked out a technical solution to contract tracing, and only contact tracing. They've done this in response to many governments suggesting all-encompassing people-tracking apps that represent a gross and ongoing invasion of privacy under the cover of the current crisis.
Yes, there are other issues with the power certain large companies have over us, Facebook and Google are now both properly evil companies, with Amazon and Uber not far behind them. But on this narrow and immediate problem, Apple and Google are doing the right thing.
It seems to me the whole story of these Turkish gowns was massively overblown (both, paradoxically in their importance and lack of importance). They seemed to become both a symbol of a claimed situation of our health service on the brink (“NHS will collapse if these vital gown don’t arrive by Friday”) as well as a symbol of the additional inadequacy of Govt response (“but they will only last 2 days anyway”).
And here were are, a couple of weeks later (? - I lose track) and we haven’t even used them. The NHS hasn’t collapsed, and to some extent the story (well the headlines anyway) seems to have moved on from PPE.
Other way round. The symbolism of the Turkish order was it showed HMG was on the job despite the sniping from Labour and the papers about not contacting Del Boy Chancers, not even the ones who turned to exporting the kit they "did not have". Turkey was the big government order to save the NHS.
Turkey was not a big order. About a third of a week, I think.
Though I agree, a symbol for the media, as demanded by the media.
Mr. Jonathan, we don't know what the reality is. Figures are difficult to compare due to both demographic differences and statistical reporting differences.
All we can say for certain is that there have been a significant number of deaths, but that the daily number is declining.
Edited extra bit: as well as trying to under-report to avoid bad headlines, some stats don't include care homes etc, and some do. Plus there are also cases of presumed COVID-19 without that being verified.
Frankly, the Government's approach to care homes, the app, and the earlier than previously thought spread due to the Chinese cover up are more significant than uncertain stats that are affected by different reporting measures.
It is remarkable that moment the data starts telling an inconvenient political story the government says it is unreliable. 🤷♂️
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.
They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun
Announcing it as he did, was a hostage to fortune. Myself, and clearly the press interpreted the comment as 'back to work on Monday'. If all he offers is a bloody picnic, he is in trouble. No the announcement now has to be big, whether he likes it or not!
Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.
Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?
The South Sea bubble collapsed in 1720. So my guess is that data prior to 1706 doesn't exist, or isn't reliable or compatible
Its the Govts fault that the supplier did not come up with satisfactory goods?
No no. Whenever you buy something it's essential that you don't check first. Don't look at ratings. Don't read reviews. Don't do any research. Just buy. And then if it turns out to be a pile of crap it's entirely the suppliers' fault.
Tsk.
And how would you implement this in the prevailing circs?
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
Could you imagine what Whitby say would look like if people were allowed out.
People haven't been allowed out for 7 weeks a lot of people are going to overdo and do stupid things when this is lifted.
Nah, I don’t buy this. It’s the same thinking that said pensioners would just go straight out and buy a Ferrari following George Osborne’s reforms of the rules in drawing down lump sums from their pensions it tax free.
Most people are very sensible. The media and twitter will always be able to find some examples of silliness (just as you can find a few pensioners who bought a Ferrari) - which they’ll then present as typical - but they will be isolated.
If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.
Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.
This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.
As throughout this crisis.
There is no one hour a day rule. There was a statement by a politician. The legal regulations say otherwise. Lifting a non-existent restriction is almost Brownian in its chicanery.
I’d never heard of this supposed rule before this morning. Since I couldn’t do a supermarket shop where I live in an hour, I’d have ignored it even if I knew of it.
Its the Govts fault that the supplier did not come up with satisfactory goods?
No no. Whenever you buy something it's essential that you don't check first. Don't look at ratings. Don't read reviews. Don't do any research. Just buy. And then if it turns out to be a pile of crap it's entirely the suppliers' fault.
Tsk.
And how would you implement this in the prevailing circs?
Do a bit of research.
Likely to fall on deaf ears as far as Boris goes. I've been defending him of late but he really is the sloppiest and laziest PM since ... well probably since the office was created.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
Since you predicted the coronavirus would not kill as many people per day in the UK as suicide = 16 a little more circumspection and humility, as well as rather more grace when dealing with others would not go amiss.
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.
They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun
I no longer consider myself bound by these stupid rules. They’ve lost all credibility with me.
I will maintain social distancing, sure, but otherwise (when I’m not working - rare) I’ll go out whenever I want to do whatever I want with my family.
There is a sense that lockdown might become like Brexit, in that most people stop caring about the details, they just want it over with.
Its the Govts fault that the supplier did not come up with satisfactory goods?
Yes, there should have been quality checks done before flying it here rather than the PR exercise to save their skins. Once again we see they can spray money to save themselves rather than admit to their failings.
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.
They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun
I no longer consider myself bound by these stupid rules. They’ve lost all credibility with me.
I will maintain social distancing, sure, but otherwise (when I’m not working - rare) I’ll go out whenever I want to do whatever I want with my family.
It may surprise you to know that this girl, on the Left, is in wholehearted agreement.
Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.
Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?
The South Sea bubble collapsed in 1720. So my guess is that data prior to 1706 doesn't exist, or isn't reliable or compatible
LOL - Radio 4 now changing the story to "worst collapse since 1720". Do they read PB?
Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.
I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.
I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.
We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.
Otherwise people die.
The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.
No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.
No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.
Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.
Not with the NHS solution, only with the A/G solution. the NHS solution is using a central database of contacts.
Saying that contacts are stored on phones is not saying that contacts are *only* stored on phones. The language used is deliberately vague.
"You won't share anything until you need to make a report, with all the data remaining on your phone until you need to report that you're having COVID-19 symptoms"
Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.
I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.
I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.
We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.
Otherwise people die.
The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.
No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.
No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.
Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.
A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.
Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).
Im walking on the road maybe half the time Im out around London at the moment, choosing quiet times and roads. Im quite aware of when cars are coming but it may appear to someone passing the opposite way that I am not (I may have looked and seen it was clear a few seconds earlier and unless cars were silently doing 100mph in a 20mph zone, would still be clear as I passed).
Its the Govts fault that the supplier did not come up with satisfactory goods?
Yes, there should have been quality checks done before flying it here rather than the PR exercise to save their skins. Once again we see they can spray money to save themselves rather than admit to their failings.
How do you improvise quality checks in a third party country? The tests almost certainly don't just consist of someone looking at some samples.
And then you have the problem of an improvised *testing* setup.
I don't remember a one hour rule, advice was to exercise as you normally do wasn't it ?
For one of my friends that was previously 60 mile bike rides on a regular basis ! I've been out for longer than an hour on occasion, but always from home and on my own whilst exercising
I extended my bike range to 38km yesterday teatime. It was glorious.
Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.
I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.
I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.
We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.
Otherwise people die.
The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.
No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.
No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.
Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.
Not with the NHS solution, only with the A/G solution. the NHS solution is using a central database of contacts.
Saying that contacts are stored on phones is not saying that contacts are *only* stored on phones. The language used is deliberately vague.
"You won't share anything until you need to make a report, with all the data remaining on your phone until you need to report that you're having COVID-19 symptoms"
Doesn't sound vague to me.
People are seeing problems where there aren't any.
If and when a ping comes through, or get the virus, I always have the option of waiting to see if I get any symptoms (isolating as appropriate), and/or going and getting a test. Although it is clearly not playing the game, and better for everyone if people use the App to allow the NHS to generate new pings.
There is also a promise that all the data will be deleted after the crisis is over.
I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.
Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.
The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.
If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.
The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.
To me some of this is problematic, and a bit "tabloid". We need a more subtle analysis, rather than black and white. Amongst others:
1 - There has never been a restriction to "once a day" (except in Wales, which is essentially a one party state run by near idiots). That was only ever "advice". It seems sensible in places like London - even though it is the 'greenest' big city in Europe. In my medium sized market town in an ex-mining area, which has miles and miles of trails and hundreds of hectares of country park, it is less logical.
If I have wanted to exercise twice a day, I have done so - in full accordance with the law.
2 - "Lockdown makes everyone miserable" is a large overstatement. Less happy than otherwise, maybe. Miserable - no.
3 - "The government's end of the bargain" is actually something for all of us to do.
4 - "Terrified shielders". Not the ones I know - cautious and realistic, yes. Careful, yes. Mature in their thinking - yes. "Terrified", like children scared by the Sand Man - no.
I think the only 'terrified' person I have met has been an assistant in my local Tesco, who "hates" (direct quote) having to do her job.
Regarding the Indian gas leak accident. For a startup accident, one would certainly look, even in normal circumstances, at how the prior plant shutdown was performed. Doubly so, given India's chaotic lockdown - were the best people to perform the plant shutdown even able to access the site. In Andhra Pradesh, to my knowledge, there are certainly nstances of chemical plant workers being hauled off buses and beaten by police at the start of lockdown.
I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.
Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.
The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.
If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.
The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.
Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ? If not, this is likely to end badly.
We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.
The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.
I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.
Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.
If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.
Assuming anyone more that an insignificant minority are actually catching it from hard surfaces. And in a way that actually delivers a dangerous viral load. The lack of development on information about how this thing spreads is incredibly frustrating (although maybe it is there and haven’t been paying close enough attention).
Re:mobile batteries - buy shares in manufacturers of portable chargers!
The 15 minute contact thing seems to have popped up again having not been mentioned since the beginning of the outbreak. Either it has always been reckoned likely and they have just been playing safe, or it's the result of research. I have also seen suggestions that outside spread is unlikely
They need some excuses for relaxing lockdown. You will get the scientific 15 minutes , no transmission outside guff, then like care homes if it goes wrong they just don't count the numbers and say all is well.
It seems to me the whole story of these Turkish gowns was massively overblown (both, paradoxically in their importance and lack of importance). They seemed to become both a symbol of a claimed situation of our health service on the brink (“NHS will collapse if these vital gown don’t arrive by Friday”) as well as a symbol of the additional inadequacy of Govt response (“but they will only last 2 days anyway”).
And here were are, a couple of weeks later (? - I lose track) and we haven’t even used them. The NHS hasn’t collapsed, and to some extent the story (well the headlines anyway) seems to have moved on from PPE.
Other way round. The symbolism of the Turkish order was it showed HMG was on the job despite the sniping from Labour and the papers about not contacting Del Boy Chancers, not even the ones who turned to exporting the kit they "did not have". Turkey was the big government order to save the NHS.
Turkey was not a big order. About a third of a week, I think.
Though I agree, a symbol for the media, as demanded by the media.
Turkey was a very big order until it turned out there was almost nothing there. Remember the pictures of the RAF plane landing in Turkey, with more planes on standby, where it just sat for a couple of days.
Politics: lots of references to Jenrick Air in the papers so perhaps the SoS for Housing who has so many houses he forgot which one he was supposed to be living at is carrying the can, even though it is not really clear what his involvement would have been.
Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.
Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?
The South Sea bubble collapsed in 1720. So my guess is that data prior to 1706 doesn't exist, or isn't reliable or compatible
I would go for reliable as it's clear that the Black Death most have had a more significant impact but that probably isn't a comparison that you wish to use in the current circumstances.
Since the creation of the UK in 1707 would have been just as easy to write and wouldn't have me wondering why 1706 (which wasn't a good year) was so very bad.
If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.
Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.
This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.
As throughout this crisis.
There is no one hour a day rule. There was a statement by a politician. The legal regulations say otherwise. Lifting a non-existent restriction is almost Brownian in its chicanery.
I’d never heard of this supposed rule before this morning. Since I couldn’t do a supermarket shop where I live in an hour, I’d have ignored it even if I knew of it.
It is literally just the first thought of Michael Gove in response to how much exercise should someone take in lockdown (and caveated with do what you normally do). It is not even "Gove's law" let alone UK law.
A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.
Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).
Im walking on the road maybe half the time Im out around London at the moment, choosing quiet times and roads. Im quite aware of when cars are coming but it may appear to someone passing the opposite way that I am not (I may have looked and seen it was clear a few seconds earlier and unless cars were silently doing 100mph in a 20mph zone, would still be clear as I passed).
At the moment there is so little traffic that the risk attached to that has changed.
Comparison of changed risk. If I recall, the amount of cycling out there is up to 4x the previous, but the number of accidents has only doubled. That is despite many of the new ones being the cycling equivalent of Inspector Clouseau, and in severe need of training.
(It is called Bikeability, and is available free to adults almost everywhere in England - don't know about the others.)
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.
They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun
I no longer consider myself bound by these stupid rules. They’ve lost all credibility with me.
I will maintain social distancing, sure, but otherwise (when I’m not working - rare) I’ll go out whenever I want to do whatever I want with my family.
There is a sense that lockdown might become like Brexit, in that most people stop caring about the details, they just want it over with.
I think people are fairly clear with the details of what they want to end - not being allowed to see mates down the pub, send kids to school, go wander aimlessly, have casual sex etc etc. Whereas Brexit never produced anything concrete that was real that ardent Brexiteers wanted to stop. Hence the Glorious Sovereignty of Free England able to choose to leave its borders wide open whereas the slave EU states had no option to close them like they did.
A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.
Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).
Im walking on the road maybe half the time Im out around London at the moment, choosing quiet times and roads. Im quite aware of when cars are coming but it may appear to someone passing the opposite way that I am not (I may have looked and seen it was clear a few seconds earlier and unless cars were silently doing 100mph in a 20mph zone, would still be clear as I passed).
At the moment there is so little traffic that the risk attached to that has changed.
Comparison of changed risk. If I recall, the amount of cycling out there is up to 4x the previous, but the number of accidents has only doubled. That is despite many of the new ones being the cycling equivalent of Inspector Clouseau, and in severe need of training.
(It is called Bikeability, and is available free to adults almost everywhere in England - don't know about the others.)
There are some really dodgy new and lapsed cyclists around - and they tend to use the pavement, hence Im left walking on the road!
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
It’s entirely relevant. It’s the propaganda that cheap.
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Firstly we do not know if its the highest deaths in Europe until we can compare like with like and secondly your cheap jibe adds nothing to the seriousness of what has befallen the world at large.
"The NHS has tasked a private company to "investigate" if it can switch its contact-tracing app over to the global standard proposed by Apple and Google, it has emerged just days after the UK’s version launched on the Isle of Wight."
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.
They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun
I no longer consider myself bound by these stupid rules. They’ve lost all credibility with me.
I will maintain social distancing, sure, but otherwise (when I’m not working - rare) I’ll go out whenever I want to do whatever I want with my family.
There is a sense that lockdown might become like Brexit, in that most people stop caring about the details, they just want it over with.
I think people are fairly clear with the details of what they want to end - not being allowed to see mates down the pub, send kids to school, go wander aimlessly, have casual sex etc etc. Whereas Brexit never produced anything concrete that was real that ardent Brexiteers wanted to stop. Hence the Glorious Sovereignty of Free England able to choose to leave its borders wide open whereas the slave EU states had no option to close them like they did.
It was lack of controls on workers from Eastern Europe working class Brexit voters wanted to stop, not temporary closing of borders for health reasons.
I'd like to wish everyone a happy Victory at Edgbaston bank holiday weekend, I hope others will enjoy the Ashes re-run on TMS as much as I - though in 2005 I was watching on C4 rather than listening to the radio.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
It’s entirely relevant. It’s the propaganda that cheap.
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Firstly we do not know if its the highest deaths in Europe until we can compare like with like and secondly your cheap jibe adds nothing to the seriousness of what has befallen the world at large.
Why did the government only cast doubt on the figures when they told an inconvenient story?
Regarding the Indian gas leak accident. For a startup accident, one would certainly look, even in normal circumstances, at how the prior plant shutdown was performed. Doubly so, given India's chaotic lockdown - were the best people to perform the plant shutdown even able to access the site. In Andhra Pradesh, to my knowledge, there are certainly nstances of chemical plant workers being hauled off buses and beaten by police at the start of lockdown.
Sadly, the other thing that needs looking at is nepotism. One reason the Bhopal disaster didn't involve a proper prosecution of the company involved was that a number of the local plant managers had got their jobs via political connections. A full enquiry/prosecution would have involved asking too many questions...
A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.
Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).
Im walking on the road maybe half the time Im out around London at the moment, choosing quiet times and roads. Im quite aware of when cars are coming but it may appear to someone passing the opposite way that I am not (I may have looked and seen it was clear a few seconds earlier and unless cars were silently doing 100mph in a 20mph zone, would still be clear as I passed).
At the moment there is so little traffic that the risk attached to that has changed.
Comparison of changed risk. If I recall, the amount of cycling out there is up to 4x the previous, but the number of accidents has only doubled. That is despite many of the new ones being the cycling equivalent of Inspector Clouseau, and in severe need of training.
(It is called Bikeability, and is available free to adults almost everywhere in England - don't know about the others.)
There are some really dodgy new and lapsed cyclists around - and they tend to use the pavement, hence Im left walking on the road!
Agree on that in some respects.
In many places it is compounded by policies to encourage effective pavement cycling via "shared surfaces". Not necessarily a problem in itself, but it is too easy an excuse for avoiding introducing the type of segregated infrastructure that will encourage such people to use bikes more safely.
Around here, I've just heard that one of the dodgier vehicle rat-runs through our largest park has been closed permanently to motorised through traffic, which is glorious for people on foot or bike, and local residents.
It's quite funny because the barriers at both ends are now bent where vehicles have hit them. But they have followed the first Rule of Gateposts, which is to make them strong enough so that any normal thing hitting it loses.
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.
They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun
Announcing it as he did, was a hostage to fortune. Myself, and clearly the press interpreted the comment as 'back to work on Monday'. If all he offers is a bloody picnic, he is in trouble. No the announcement now has to be big, whether he likes it or not!
Indeed, Ave_It insisted yesterday that all was back to normal and Huzzah! The first rule of Lockdown is IGNORE what the gobshite cabinet minister is saying as it won't be factual. "One hour" - incorrect. "100k tests" - incorrect. "back to work" - incorrect.
I made these points repeatedly yesterday to fly over your head - we are not going back to work because: 1. Social Distancing remains in place unaltered 2. You cannot social distance in a school. Schools remain shut with a phased part time reopening only before September 3. You cannot social distance on public transport. Its not the mayor's fault, London had less buses/trains because of Dead Drivers and others sick / isolating. Run all the buses and trains with social distancing and there is a fraction of required capacity hence no mass reopening and WFH for the duration.
Once the Daily Mail spots this I expect it will just ignore today's front page and declare A TRIUMPH FOR BORIS. Partisans already willing to cheer Boris announcing that the sky is green will do the same. But for normals out there this will not go down well. They have been PROMISED Hope. And thats going to be smashed. By Boris.
Personally, living in a flat in west London with no garden or balcony, being able to go for a picnic in the park will be quite a major liberation. I'll be extremely disappointed if that is not in the end permitted.
Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.
I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.
I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.
We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.
Otherwise people die.
The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.
No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.
No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.
Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.
Not with the NHS solution, only with the A/G solution. the NHS solution is using a central database of contacts.
Saying that contacts are stored on phones is not saying that contacts are *only* stored on phones. The language used is deliberately vague.
"You won't share anything until you need to make a report, with all the data remaining on your phone until you need to report that you're having COVID-19 symptoms"
Doesn't sound vague to me.
They refer to sharing with others, those with whom you've been in contact. They are also correct that the data remains on your phone.
What they're deliberately not saying is that it also resides on the government servers at all times. The company who have been writing the software are a big database company, with apparently zero experience of writing mobile apps.
I'm generally supportive of the government, but they've screwed this one up.
Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.
I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.
I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.
We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.
Otherwise people die.
The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.
Um, no - if that was the case how would the return path of the NHS telling you that someone has been infected would.
The Apple Google version does something approaching what you describe, the NHS one is a data grab (for their know no better and Pivotal labs make their money from big complex databases)
The return path is simple.
The way I would design it is that the app holds a SQLite database on the phone with the IDs of phones with which it has been in significant contact over the last n days. When someone is diagnosed and hits the notify button on the app, the app sends their ID to the supplier along with the list of recent contacts. The supplier then sends a push notification to those contacts. All the supplier needs to store in order to achieve this is the ID and push token for every phone with the app.
As for the "it doesn't work" reports, maybe it doesn't but I wouldn't be surprised if this is just the press failing to understand the software development process as usual. A typical software engineer produces 20-100 defects per thousand lines of code. For shrink wrap software release quality is regarded as less than 1 defect per thousand lines of code. So, when the developers think they've finished with the product, there should be several rounds of testing and fixing before it is released. If you don't find any major defects during this testing you aren't doing it right.
It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.
I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.
I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.
They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun
I no longer consider myself bound by these stupid rules. They’ve lost all credibility with me.
I will maintain social distancing, sure, but otherwise (when I’m not working - rare) I’ll go out whenever I want to do whatever I want with my family.
There is a sense that lockdown might become like Brexit, in that most people stop caring about the details, they just want it over with.
I think people are fairly clear with the details of what they want to end - not being allowed to see mates down the pub, send kids to school, go wander aimlessly, have casual sex etc etc. Whereas Brexit never produced anything concrete that was real that ardent Brexiteers wanted to stop. Hence the Glorious Sovereignty of Free England able to choose to leave its borders wide open whereas the slave EU states had no option to close them like they did.
We are further dow the road in Spain towards being able to 'relax' the lockdown but many remain very nervous and fearful of a new outbreak. I live in a village with no cases and people want to keep it that way. Obviously we are aware of the need for balance but I think the view is that the hardships will ahve been poitless if we are reckless now and think it is all over. The strongest social meesage I've see is along these lines:
'We are relaxing the rules a little because we now have spare ICU capacity, not because Covid19 has gone away'.
Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.
Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?
The South Sea bubble collapsed in 1720. So my guess is that data prior to 1706 doesn't exist, or isn't reliable or compatible
I thought it was the great frost of 1709 which caused great starvation across Europe.
If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.
Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.
This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.
As throughout this crisis.
There is no one hour a day rule. There was a statement by a politician. The legal regulations say otherwise. Lifting a non-existent restriction is almost Brownian in its chicanery.
I’d never heard of this supposed rule before this morning. Since I couldn’t do a supermarket shop where I live in an hour, I’d have ignored it even if I knew of it.
It is literally just the first thought of Michael Gove in response to how much exercise should someone take in lockdown (and caveated with do what you normally do). It is not even "Gove's law" let alone UK law.
The relevant law - in the 2020 CV regulations - is so clear and simple that politicians and media never refer to it. You can leave your home if you have a 'reasonable excuse'. The regulation goes on to list some things which count as such (not exhaustive) of which 'exercise' is one. The rest is hot air.
Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.
Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?
The South Sea bubble collapsed in 1720. So my guess is that data prior to 1706 doesn't exist, or isn't reliable or compatible
The modern concept of GDP comes from Simon Kuznets's work in the 1930s, and the measurement of GDP dates from after WWII; earlier figures are indirect imputations and estimations from other, also sparse data.
Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.
I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.
I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.
We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.
Otherwise people die.
The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.
No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.
No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.
Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.
Not with the NHS solution, only with the A/G solution. the NHS solution is using a central database of contacts.
Saying that contacts are stored on phones is not saying that contacts are *only* stored on phones. The language used is deliberately vague.
"You won't share anything until you need to make a report, with all the data remaining on your phone until you need to report that you're having COVID-19 symptoms"
Doesn't sound vague to me.
They refer to sharing with others, those with whom you've been in contact. They are also correct that the data remains on your phone.
What they're deliberately not saying is that it also resides on the government servers at all times. The company who have been writing the software are a big database company, with apparently zero experience of writing mobile apps.
I'm generally supportive of the government, but they've screwed this one up.
No, the quote is from an article on a technology website which is quite explicit that the data will not leave your phone. Your idea that "won't share anything" means you are still sharing it with the government is wrong. The data does not reside on the government servers. Quite apart from the civil liberties aspect, there are lots of technical reasons why you simply wouldn't do this.
I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.
Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.
The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.
If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.
The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.
Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ? If not, this is likely to end badly.
We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.
The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.
I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.
Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.
If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.
Assuming anyone more that an insignificant minority are actually catching it from hard surfaces. And in a way that actually delivers a dangerous viral load. The lack of development on information about how this thing spreads is incredibly frustrating (although maybe it is there and haven’t been paying close enough attention).
Re:mobile batteries - buy shares in manufacturers of portable chargers!
The 15 minute contact thing seems to have popped up again having not been mentioned since the beginning of the outbreak. Either it has always been reckoned likely and they have just been playing safe, or it's the result of research. I have also seen suggestions that outside spread is unlikely
They need some excuses for relaxing lockdown. You will get the scientific 15 minutes , no transmission outside guff, then like care homes if it goes wrong they just don't count the numbers and say all is well.
Some of my reading yesterday suggested that some formula would be used accountibg for (a) proximity (b) duration (c) whether the infected contact spread to other people.
The proof of the pudding is successful.suppression of R as contacts increase. The app can lose chains of transmission as they pass via non app users or users whose Apps were inactive, pick them up again further on, and still do a decent job of suppression as long as it works well enough to get a decent proportion of the right people into rapid self-isolation. The app design is a big concern though, and the better it works, the better it will suppress, and the more we will be able to ease distancing measures.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
We are on course for 50 times the deaths in both Iraqs and Afghanistan combined. The tories need to start worrying about what they are going to say at the inquiry because it's going to be absolutely brutal. It'll be Chilcot times Leveson to the power of Stevens.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
Since you predicted the coronavirus would not kill as many people per day in the UK as suicide = 16 a little more circumspection and humility, as well as rather more grace when dealing with others would not go amiss.
Remember your comments about sounding like a mix beween eyore and private fraser back.in february wrt Mr Meeks warning about Coronavirus.
Mr. Jonathan, do you actually disagree with me about the statistics?
Do you disagree with my criticisms over the app/care home situation? Or that the Chinese cover up made things significantly worse in countries such as the UK and France?
Or is it only the single pro-Government line in my post that you consider to perhaps be worthy of doubt?
Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.
Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?
The South Sea bubble collapsed in 1720. So my guess is that data prior to 1706 doesn't exist, or isn't reliable or compatible
The modern concept of GDP comes from Simon Kuznets's work in the 1930s, and the measurement of GDP dates from after WWII; earlier figures are indirect imputations and estimations from other, also sparse data.
As a matter of interest - is there any older data on the split of the economy between manufacturing, services etc? I haven't been able to find anything much before the 1940s. Anything computed, guessed at?
On topic the relaxation is going to be "evidence led" and "based on scientific advice". That is going to recognise that infection outside is unlikely unless there is prolonged close contact (no snogging in the park). It means establishments that are outside should be able to open, beer gardens, garden centres, farmers markets, etc. It means that those who work outside (eg on construction sites) can go to work.
Outside that things are more difficult. Where are our 4k+ new cases coming from? Where are the weak points? Public transport? Supermarkets? Care both residential and in the home? Hospitals? I have not seen any detailed analysis of this and it must be key.
I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.
Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.
The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.
If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.
The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.
It’s not just the easing to be got right but the support for businesses while this happens.
Little point telling people they have to go on a crowded Tube and also tell them they can’t go to a restaurant or pub for a meal/drink. If they can do the former they can do the latter. The medical risk is the same.
And if they do want to make this distinction, then they will have to support the latter for months and months.
Pubs/ restaurants are not viable as takeaways or with only half a dozen people in them all standing 2 metres apart. Either they operate as now or not at all. The government either effectively shuts down the hospitality industry or supports it. Rinse and repeat for many other sectors.
Does it even understand the scale of the decisions it needs to take and the implications? I have my doubts.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
It’s entirely relevant. It’s the propaganda that cheap.
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Firstly we do not know if its the highest deaths in Europe until we can compare like with like and secondly your cheap jibe adds nothing to the seriousness of what has befallen the world at large.
Why did the government only cast doubt on the figures when they told an inconvenient story?
Mr. Jonathan, do you actually disagree with me about the statistics?
Do you disagree with my criticisms over the app/care home situation? Or that the Chinese cover up made things significantly worse in countries such as the UK and France?
Or is it only the single pro-Government line in my post that you consider to perhaps be worthy of doubt?
I have lost patience with the way this government spins and manipulates data to serve its short term political ends and am depressed that people go along with it.
It is perfectly valid to discuss why our death count is so high, even if the government would prefer us not to.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
It’s entirely relevant. It’s the propaganda that cheap.
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Firstly we do not know if its the highest deaths in Europe until we can compare like with like and secondly your cheap jibe adds nothing to the seriousness of what has befallen the world at large.
Why did the government only cast doubt on the figures when they told an inconvenient story?
On topic the relaxation is going to be "evidence led" and "based on scientific advice". That is going to recognise that infection outside is unlikely unless there is prolonged close contact (no snogging in the park). It means establishments that are outside should be able to open, beer gardens, garden centres, farmers markets, etc. It means that those who work outside (eg on construction sites) can go to work.
Outside that things are more difficult. Where are our 4k+ new cases coming from? Where are the weak points? Public transport? Supermarkets? Care both residential and in the home? Hospitals? I have not seen any detailed analysis of this and it must be key.
I continually asked this question about Spain and Italy when their new cases were around 4-5K 7 weeks into lockdown and was told it was families and lag.
30 May for the diary. My memory of 1997 was finally knowing what multiple orgasm felt like.
I know this might be an unfashionable view, but I think you might be in for another one at the next election. Starmer has 4 years to show his professionalism and Johnson has 4 years to show his rank amateurism, which the public will become increasingly tired of. I don't particularly want a Labour government, but the Tory party needs a very large dose of disinfectant, as does the Republican Party in the US.
One trouble with easing the lockdown is that it is hard to do it in a way that does not draw attention to its arbitrary nature. The front pages in the header mention picnics and country visits, which of course caught many people out when they were first banned -- even pb was unsure if some activities were actually verboten or if the police were overreaching. Still, four years before an election.
I don’t buy this “we’re 4 years away from an election so no need to worry” meme.
The Tories lost the 1997 election in autumn 1992 when they cocked up massively on Black Wednesday over the ERM. How they dealt with that and its aftermath and their tin ear for its effect on people was fatal to their chances at the next election.
How the government deals with the virus and its economic effects will determine the next election. People who lose jobs, businesses, homes, futures because of government decisions now will not forget this in 4 years time.
Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.
Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?
The South Sea bubble collapsed in 1720. So my guess is that data prior to 1706 doesn't exist, or isn't reliable or compatible
I would go for reliable as it's clear that the Black Death most have had a more significant impact but that probably isn't a comparison that you wish to use in the current circumstances.
Since the creation of the UK in 1707 would have been just as easy to write and wouldn't have me wondering why 1706 (which wasn't a good year) was so very bad.
I don't think the South Sea Bubble affected the real economy much, but the Great Frost of 1709 certainly did:
The name given to VE Day in Germany is "Tag der Befreiung" meaning "Day of liberation", which sums up the view here very well. It was the day that the evil of the Nazi government was removed. There are many sad personal stories of soldiers and civillians who died, people who were also victims os the Nazi regime even though they were fighting for them.
Tomorrow is a public holiday in Berlin (not the rest of the country) and only for this year because of the 75th anniversary.
Calling it the Day of Liberation is a bit odd when you consider what happened to Berlin between 1945 and 1989. But from our point of view, it is right that we celebrate our triumph over Nazism, not the German people. We should also have a holiday to celebrate beating that other scourge of the 20th century - Marxism (VM day?). November 9th - the day the Berlin Wall came down - is probably the best day to do that.
Certainly a better day for a holiday than the second May Bank Holiday. Nobody knows what that is there for (Whitsun, apparently).
On topic the relaxation is going to be "evidence led" and "based on scientific advice". That is going to recognise that infection outside is unlikely unless there is prolonged close contact (no snogging in the park). It means establishments that are outside should be able to open, beer gardens, garden centres, farmers markets, etc. It means that those who work outside (eg on construction sites) can go to work.
Outside that things are more difficult. Where are our 4k+ new cases coming from? Where are the weak points? Public transport? Supermarkets? Care both residential and in the home? Hospitals? I have not seen any detailed analysis of this and it must be key.
I continually asked this question about Spain and Italy when their new cases were around 4-5K 7 weeks into lockdown and was told it was families and lag.
Yes but that doesn't make sense does it? Unless that family is then interacting with the outer world in a way that allows it to spread further anyone in the family who is going to be infected will be infected much more quickly than that. Until we know where those cases are coming from we don't have a basis on which to assess the risks.
Mr. Jonathan, do you actually disagree with me about the statistics?
Do you disagree with my criticisms over the app/care home situation? Or that the Chinese cover up made things significantly worse in countries such as the UK and France?
Or is it only the single pro-Government line in my post that you consider to perhaps be worthy of doubt?
I have lost patience with the way this government spins and manipulates data to serve its short term political ends and am depressed that people go along with it.
It is perfectly valid to discuss why our death count is so high, even if the government would prefer us not to.
Whinging and discussing are very different things. I also dislike the government very much, but am often put in a position defending it because those making criticisms go over the top.
But I agree that the margins are lopsided in NY and CA, and Trump is clearly compeitive in swing states.
There were some polls posted from a Frank Luntz tweet yesterday or the day before showing Republican voters were far more blasé about the pandemic. In America far more than here, each side has its own facts. That is what we need to remember when betting. There is no point in extrapolating from Trump bungling the response to Covid-19 if his supporters do not think it matters very much in the first place, to take one example.
Mr. Jonathan, do you actually disagree with me about the statistics?
Do you disagree with my criticisms over the app/care home situation? Or that the Chinese cover up made things significantly worse in countries such as the UK and France?
Or is it only the single pro-Government line in my post that you consider to perhaps be worthy of doubt?
I have lost patience with the way this government spins and manipulates data to serve its short term political ends and am depressed that people go along with it.
It is perfectly valid to discuss why our death count is so high, even if the government would prefer us not to.
The facts that the UK, esp England, is one of the highest density countries in Europe (only Netherlands and Belgium are higher) and our status as a major economic hub and our wealth allowing international travel and our cherishing of the liberal democracy ideals have to be primary factors as to why our death rate is high.
If I had been writing a book on which European countries would be most affected by a global pandemic I would have had UK as favourite.
I`m long pissed off that this dreadful situation, which the government is battling like crazy to get us out of, is being used by many to bash the government for party political reasons. I find it shocking and immoral.
Please lay off party politics. I don`t vote Conservative, but support them in what they are trying to do, as I would any party at this time. We are all in this together.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
It’s entirely relevant. It’s the propaganda that cheap.
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Firstly we do not know if its the highest deaths in Europe until we can compare like with like and secondly your cheap jibe adds nothing to the seriousness of what has befallen the world at large.
Why did the government only cast doubt on the figures when they told an inconvenient story?
The name given to VE Day in Germany is "Tag der Befreiung" meaning "Day of liberation", which sums up the view here very well. It was the day that the evil of the Nazi government was removed. There are many sad personal stories of soldiers and civillians who died, people who were also victims os the Nazi regime even though they were fighting for them.
Tomorrow is a public holiday in Berlin (not the rest of the country) and only for this year because of the 75th anniversary.
Calling it the Day of Liberation is a bit odd when you consider what happened to Berlin between 1945 and 1989. But from our point of view, it is right that we celebrate our triumph over Nazism, not the German people. We should also have a holiday to celebrate beating that other scourge of the 20th century - Marxism (VM day?). November 9th - the day the Berlin Wall came down - is probably the best day to do that.
Certainly a better day for a holiday than the second May Bank Holiday. Nobody knows what that is there for (Whitsun, apparently).
Marxism Defeat Day? The tankies would explode.... not to mention quite a people in university common rooms.
The name given to VE Day in Germany is "Tag der Befreiung" meaning "Day of liberation", which sums up the view here very well. It was the day that the evil of the Nazi government was removed. There are many sad personal stories of soldiers and civillians who died, people who were also victims os the Nazi regime even though they were fighting for them.
Tomorrow is a public holiday in Berlin (not the rest of the country) and only for this year because of the 75th anniversary.
Calling it the Day of Liberation is a bit odd when you consider what happened to Berlin between 1945 and 1989. But from our point of view, it is right that we celebrate our triumph over Nazism, not the German people. We should also have a holiday to celebrate beating that other scourge of the 20th century - Marxism (VM day?). November 9th - the day the Berlin Wall came down - is probably the best day to do that.
Certainly a better day for a holiday than the second May Bank Holiday. Nobody knows what that is there for (Whitsun, apparently).
Not just Berlin but the whole of eastern Europe. From one malicious dictatorship to another all the way to 1989. I still find it staggering that so many thought that that brutal regime was admirable or anything other than contemptible in any sense. The fact that apparently clever people were apologists for such evil shows that there is nothing new about fake news or alternative facts.
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
It’s entirely relevant. It’s the propaganda that cheap.
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Firstly we do not know if its the highest deaths in Europe until we can compare like with like and secondly your cheap jibe adds nothing to the seriousness of what has befallen the world at large.
Why did the government only cast doubt on the figures when they told an inconvenient story?
They cast doubt on the figures from the very start.
A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.
Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).
Im walking on the road maybe half the time Im out around London at the moment, choosing quiet times and roads. Im quite aware of when cars are coming but it may appear to someone passing the opposite way that I am not (I may have looked and seen it was clear a few seconds earlier and unless cars were silently doing 100mph in a 20mph zone, would still be clear as I passed).
At the moment there is so little traffic that the risk attached to that has changed.
Comparison of changed risk. If I recall, the amount of cycling out there is up to 4x the previous, but the number of accidents has only doubled. That is despite many of the new ones being the cycling equivalent of Inspector Clouseau, and in severe need of training.
(It is called Bikeability, and is available free to adults almost everywhere in England - don't know about the others.)
There are some really dodgy new and lapsed cyclists around - and they tend to use the pavement, hence Im left walking on the road!
Agree on that in some respects.
In many places it is compounded by policies to encourage effective pavement cycling via "shared surfaces". Not necessarily a problem in itself, but it is too easy an excuse for avoiding introducing the type of segregated infrastructure that will encourage such people to use bikes more safely.
Around here, I've just heard that one of the dodgier vehicle rat-runs through our largest park has been closed permanently to motorised through traffic, which is glorious for people on foot or bike, and local residents.
It's quite funny because the barriers at both ends are now bent where vehicles have hit them. But they have followed the first Rule of Gateposts, which is to make them strong enough so that any normal thing hitting it loses.
The lockdown has changed my views on restricting car use. London would be a better city with more significantly more cycling and walking links where people dont worry about cars, and its achievable. (I still dont like the way councils try to achieve the above by making life worse for car drivers rather than focusing on better for cyclists and pedestrians).
Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:
Go for a picnic.
Really?
Cheap comment. Not relevant.
It’s entirely relevant. It’s the propaganda that cheap.
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Firstly we do not know if its the highest deaths in Europe until we can compare like with like and secondly your cheap jibe adds nothing to the seriousness of what has befallen the world at large.
Why did the government only cast doubt on the figures when they told an inconvenient story?
They did it to annoy whingers like you?
Stay classy Felix.
I always match the comment to the poster.
It took you a while to figure out that comeback, but a decent effort. 6/10 😀
Mr. Jonathan, do you actually disagree with me about the statistics?
Do you disagree with my criticisms over the app/care home situation? Or that the Chinese cover up made things significantly worse in countries such as the UK and France?
Or is it only the single pro-Government line in my post that you consider to perhaps be worthy of doubt?
I have lost patience with the way this government spins and manipulates data to serve its short term political ends and am depressed that people go along with it.
It is perfectly valid to discuss why our death count is so high, even if the government would prefer us not to.
The facts that the UK, esp England, is one of the highest density countries in Europe (only Netherlands and Belgium are higher) and our status as a major economic hub and our wealth allowing international travel and our cherishing of the liberal democracy ideals have to be primary factors as to why our death rate is high.
If I had been writing a book on which European countries would be most affected by a global pandemic I would have had UK as favourite.
I`m long pissed off that this dreadful situation, which the government is battling like crazy to get us out of, is being used by many to bash the government for party political reasons. I find it shocking and immoral.
Please lay off party politics. I don`t vote Conservative, but support them in what they are trying to do, as I would any party at this time. We are all in this together.
Comments
Apple and Google have worked out a technical solution to contract tracing, and only contact tracing. They've done this in response to many governments suggesting all-encompassing people-tracking apps that represent a gross and ongoing invasion of privacy under the cover of the current crisis.
Yes, there are other issues with the power certain large companies have over us, Facebook and Google are now both properly evil companies, with Amazon and Uber not far behind them. But on this narrow and immediate problem, Apple and Google are doing the right thing.
Though I agree, a symbol for the media, as demanded by the media.
https://fullfact.org/online/photos-social-distancing/
“Look at the shiny, shiny here people, take a picnic, forget we have worst death toll in Europe and that you’ve possibly lost your job”
Likely to fall on deaf ears as far as Boris goes. I've been defending him of late but he really is the sloppiest and laziest PM since ... well probably since the office was created.
I see lockdown 'easing' is running away from the government already. I guess they have modelled this reaction (including the tabloids)?
Monday will be mayhem and this weekend the parks and beaches will be rammed.
Doesn't sound vague to me.
And then you have the problem of an improvised *testing* setup.
If and when a ping comes through, or get the virus, I always have the option of waiting to see if I get any symptoms (isolating as appropriate), and/or going and getting a test. Although it is clearly not playing the game, and better for everyone if people use the App to allow the NHS to generate new pings.
There is also a promise that all the data will be deleted after the crisis is over.
1 - There has never been a restriction to "once a day" (except in Wales, which is essentially a one party state run by near idiots). That was only ever "advice". It seems sensible in places like London - even though it is the 'greenest' big city in Europe. In my medium sized market town in an ex-mining area, which has miles and miles of trails and hundreds of hectares of country park, it is less logical.
If I have wanted to exercise twice a day, I have done so - in full accordance with the law.
2 - "Lockdown makes everyone miserable" is a large overstatement. Less happy than otherwise, maybe. Miserable - no.
3 - "The government's end of the bargain" is actually something for all of us to do.
4 - "Terrified shielders". Not the ones I know - cautious and realistic, yes. Careful, yes. Mature in their thinking - yes. "Terrified", like children scared by the Sand Man - no.
I think the only 'terrified' person I have met has been an assistant in my local Tesco, who "hates" (direct quote) having to do her job.
Hopefully Starmer can bring the party back to contention.
Politics: lots of references to Jenrick Air in the papers so perhaps the SoS for Housing who has so many houses he forgot which one he was supposed to be living at is carrying the can, even though it is not really clear what his involvement would have been.
Since the creation of the UK in 1707 would have been just as easy to write and wouldn't have me wondering why 1706 (which wasn't a good year) was so very bad.
Comparison of changed risk. If I recall, the amount of cycling out there is up to 4x the previous, but the number of accidents has only doubled. That is despite many of the new ones being the cycling equivalent of Inspector Clouseau, and in severe need of training.
(It is called Bikeability, and is available free to adults almost everywhere in England - don't know about the others.)
General election on BBC:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1258290364831629312
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1258247127639248896?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1258253668543016960?s=20
"The NHS has tasked a private company to "investigate" if it can switch its contact-tracing app over to the global standard proposed by Apple and Google, it has emerged just days after the UK’s version launched on the Isle of Wight."
(Telegraph)
In many places it is compounded by policies to encourage effective pavement cycling via "shared surfaces". Not necessarily a problem in itself, but it is too easy an excuse for avoiding introducing the type of segregated infrastructure that will encourage such people to use bikes more safely.
Around here, I've just heard that one of the dodgier vehicle rat-runs through our largest park has been closed permanently to motorised through traffic, which is glorious for people on foot or bike, and local residents.
It's quite funny because the barriers at both ends are now bent where vehicles have hit them. But they have followed the first Rule of Gateposts, which is to make them strong enough so that any normal thing hitting it loses.
I made these points repeatedly yesterday to fly over your head - we are not going back to work because:
1. Social Distancing remains in place unaltered
2. You cannot social distance in a school. Schools remain shut with a phased part time reopening only before September
3. You cannot social distance on public transport. Its not the mayor's fault, London had less buses/trains because of Dead Drivers and others sick / isolating. Run all the buses and trains with social distancing and there is a fraction of required capacity hence no mass reopening and WFH for the duration.
Once the Daily Mail spots this I expect it will just ignore today's front page and declare A TRIUMPH FOR BORIS. Partisans already willing to cheer Boris announcing that the sky is green will do the same. But for normals out there this will not go down well. They have been PROMISED Hope. And thats going to be smashed. By Boris.
What they're deliberately not saying is that it also resides on the government servers at all times. The company who have been writing the software are a big database company, with apparently zero experience of writing mobile apps.
I'm generally supportive of the government, but they've screwed this one up.
The way I would design it is that the app holds a SQLite database on the phone with the IDs of phones with which it has been in significant contact over the last n days. When someone is diagnosed and hits the notify button on the app, the app sends their ID to the supplier along with the list of recent contacts. The supplier then sends a push notification to those contacts. All the supplier needs to store in order to achieve this is the ID and push token for every phone with the app.
As for the "it doesn't work" reports, maybe it doesn't but I wouldn't be surprised if this is just the press failing to understand the software development process as usual. A typical software engineer produces 20-100 defects per thousand lines of code. For shrink wrap software release quality is regarded as less than 1 defect per thousand lines of code. So, when the developers think they've finished with the product, there should be several rounds of testing and fixing before it is released. If you don't find any major defects during this testing you aren't doing it right.
'We are relaxing the rules a little because we now have spare ICU capacity, not because Covid19 has gone away'.
The key states poll could just reflect big Trump leads in Arizona and Florida
Normally his approval rating is better with registered voters than it is with all adults.
The proof of the pudding is successful.suppression of R as contacts increase. The app can lose chains of transmission as they pass via non app users or users whose Apps were inactive, pick them up again further on, and still do a decent job of suppression as long as it works well enough to get a decent proportion of the right people into rapid self-isolation. The app design is a big concern though, and the better it works, the better it will suppress, and the more we will be able to ease distancing measures.
I fear, though, that the government will go for some easy headlines and throw businesses off a cliff.
Depressing times.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
But I agree that the margins are lopsided in NY and CA, and Trump is clearly compeitive in swing states.
Do you disagree with my criticisms over the app/care home situation? Or that the Chinese cover up made things significantly worse in countries such as the UK and France?
Or is it only the single pro-Government line in my post that you consider to perhaps be worthy of doubt?
Outside that things are more difficult. Where are our 4k+ new cases coming from? Where are the weak points? Public transport? Supermarkets? Care both residential and in the home? Hospitals? I have not seen any detailed analysis of this and it must be key.
Little point telling people they have to go on a crowded Tube and also tell them they can’t go to a restaurant or pub for a meal/drink. If they can do the former they can do the latter. The medical risk is the same.
And if they do want to make this distinction, then they will have to support the latter for months and months.
Pubs/ restaurants are not viable as takeaways or with only half a dozen people in them all standing 2 metres apart. Either they operate as now or not at all. The government either effectively shuts down the hospitality industry or supports it. Rinse and repeat for many other sectors.
Does it even understand the scale of the decisions it needs to take and the implications? I have my doubts.
It is perfectly valid to discuss why our death count is so high, even if the government would prefer us not to.
The Tories lost the 1997 election in autumn 1992 when they cocked up massively on Black Wednesday over the ERM. How they dealt with that and its aftermath and their tin ear for its effect on people was fatal to their chances at the next election.
How the government deals with the virus and its economic effects will determine the next election. People who lose jobs, businesses, homes, futures because of government decisions now will not forget this in 4 years time.
He has had any number of spectacular failures, each of which has been rewarded with a promotion.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/magazine/2017/01-02/1709-deep-freeze-europe-winter/
Certainly a better day for a holiday than the second May Bank Holiday. Nobody knows what that is there for (Whitsun, apparently).
If I had been writing a book on which European countries would be most affected by a global pandemic I would have had UK as favourite.
I`m long pissed off that this dreadful situation, which the government is battling like crazy to get us out of, is being used by many to bash the government for party political reasons. I find it shocking and immoral.
Please lay off party politics. I don`t vote Conservative, but support them in what they are trying to do, as I would any party at this time. We are all in this together.
If you weren't listening then so be it.