politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Expectations of an easing are running high and Boris looks set

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Expectations of an easing are running high and Boris looks set to gamble

The tabloids are very clear this morning that the shutdown is going to be eased next week. Johnson’s comments on yesterday receive great coverage and all sound positive for ministers provided of course, that he hasn’t over promised and that the change does not produce an increase in the death toll.I just wonder whether the tabloids have raised an expectation for an easing of the lockdown which is in excess of what is possible at the moment.

Read the full story here

Black_Rook

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Sandpit

Now for the difficult bit, where there are a number of different ways to go and the big calls are going to be political rather than scientific.

DecrepiterJohnL

One trouble with easing the lockdown is that it is hard to do it in a way that does not draw attention to its arbitrary nature. The front pages in the header mention picnics and country visits, which of course caught many people out when they were first banned -- even pb was unsure if some activities were actually verboten or if the police were overreaching. Still, four years before an election.

ydoethur

The anniversary of one of our greatest PMs coming to office at the head of a broad coalition to deal with a major national emergency caused by the dithering and complacency of his unelected predecessor, facing down a dangerous German attempt to take over all of Europe that, once he had thwarted it, he was removed from office.

And it’s interesting to note it marks the anniversary of David Cameron becoming PM as well.

(Be honest, I had you for a minute there, didn’t I?)

tlg86

ydoethur said:

The anniversary of one of our greatest PMs coming to office at the head of a broad coalition to deal with a major national emergency caused by the dithering and complacency of his unelected predecessor, facing down a dangerous German attempt to take over all of Europe that, once he had thwarted it, he was removed from office.

And it’s interesting to note it marks the anniversary of David Cameron becoming PM as well.

(Be honest, I had you for a minute there, didn’t I?)

Cameron didn't become PM until 11 May 2010.

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

The anniversary of one of our greatest PMs coming to office at the head of a broad coalition to deal with a major national emergency caused by the dithering and complacency of his unelected predecessor, facing down a dangerous German attempt to take over all of Europe that, once he had thwarted it, he was removed from office.

And it’s interesting to note it marks the anniversary of David Cameron becoming PM as well.

(Be honest, I had you for a minute there, didn’t I?)

Cameron didn't become PM until 11 May 2010.

Bugger, that ruins it.

tlg86

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

The anniversary of one of our greatest PMs coming to office at the head of a broad coalition to deal with a major national emergency caused by the dithering and complacency of his unelected predecessor, facing down a dangerous German attempt to take over all of Europe that, once he had thwarted it, he was removed from office.

And it’s interesting to note it marks the anniversary of David Cameron becoming PM as well.

(Be honest, I had you for a minute there, didn’t I?)

Cameron didn't become PM until 11 May 2010.

Bugger, that ruins it.

Unfortunately that's what happens when you choke and don't win outright!

ydoethur

Oh lor. This just gets worse...

Coronavirus PPE: Gowns ordered from Turkey fail to meet safety standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

ydoethur

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

tlg86 said:

ydoethur said:

The anniversary of one of our greatest PMs coming to office at the head of a broad coalition to deal with a major national emergency caused by the dithering and complacency of his unelected predecessor, facing down a dangerous German attempt to take over all of Europe that, once he had thwarted it, he was removed from office.

And it’s interesting to note it marks the anniversary of David Cameron becoming PM as well.

(Be honest, I had you for a minute there, didn’t I?)

Cameron didn't become PM until 11 May 2010.

Bugger, that ruins it.

Unfortunately that's what happens when you choke and don't win outright!

*Gets popcorn and turns in general direction of Epping Forest...*

Black_Rook

Our regular reminder: setting aside the very old and the very vulnerable, Covid-19 really is about as dangerous as a bad strain of seasonal flu:


Researchers from Stanford University in the US have been trying to count the risk another way - equating it to that which we face from dying while driving.

In the UK, they calculate that those under the age of 65 have faced the same risk over the past few months from coronavirus as they would have faced from driving 185 miles a day - the equivalent of commuting from Swindon to London.

Strip out the under-65s with health conditions - about one in 16 - and the risk is even lower, with deaths in non-vulnerable groups being "remarkably uncommon".

Putting risk in perspective is going to be essential for individuals and decision-makers, the authors suggest.

If we do, we may learn to live with coronavirus. We may have to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692


The full piece is worth a read.

******

From a personal point of view, I don't worry about the health effects of my catching the virus, because I understand the risks and feel that I'm probably about as likely to get run over by a car or simply drop down dead of a heart attack whilst I'm out running. That doesn't put me off my exercise, or keep me lying awake at night, anymore than does the knowledge that I am likely to have to deal with a cancer diagnosis at some point during the course of my lifespan. If you worried about everything that could go wrong then you couldn't function.

What I do worry about is bringing it home to my asthmatic husband, however - which is why I still won't be off out on jollies like clothes shopping sprees and trips to cafes and restaurants every week, if and when those options become available.

I just feel that managing the presence of this disease around us involves striking the right balance, and walking the tightrope between becoming blasé on one hand and paranoid on the other. Even in our household we're going to want to go out for a treat occasionally when this option becomes available again - and that's led by the other half, not by me. Up until yesterday, when he had to go to the doctor's surgery, he'd not been more than 50 yards from the flat since he started working from home in March. There are good reasons why society chooses to punish criminals with incarceration: he's finding being caged very hard to bear. Even with my limited freedom, which is more akin to day release, the monotonous drudgery of it all is really beginning to grate.

Lockdown is a dreadful psychological burden on people and, as others more articulate than I have pointed out before, it is profoundly unhelpful for its hardline supporters to go around accusing anyone who points the fact out of being a reckless fool who wants people to die horribly. We must, at some point soon, start heading back out into the world - with extreme caution, to be sure - but it must be done nonetheless. We can't go on living like this.

Nigelb

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

IanB2

Good morning campers.

On the day that Henrietta and Eadric predicted we would reach one billion confirmed cases worldwide, I see the figure is 3.8 million. The growth in UK cases and US deaths continues to look anomalously high.

On Sunday we’ll be allowed to sit in the park and visit the garden centre, and maybe sit outside a cafe, and probably little else extra.

Nigelb

And another indication that spin is still more important than substance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/06/author-of-guardian-article-on-death-tolls-asks-government-to-stop-using-it

On a personal note, I’m pretty disgusted by the manner in which the government has avoided acknowledging its gross error on care homes, despite it being very clear that they are aware of it.

IanB2

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.

Someone has posted a video about it here:

https://onthewight.com/contact-tracing-app-watch-how-to-download-set-up-and-use/

Black_Rook

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

At this stage we don't know, do we? Trialling it is presumably the point of the Isle of Wight experiment. Although, given that they still can't get testing right - without which, the thing won't work anyway - I have severe reservations.

I was having a discussion about this last night. At the moment I'm losing faith and starting to despair. Right now, the probability of collapse and an uncontrolled tsunami wave of infections seems greater than that of successful containment.

alex_

ydoethur said:

Oh lor. This just gets worse...

Coronavirus PPE: Gowns ordered from Turkey fail to meet safety standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

It seems to me the whole story of these Turkish gowns was massively overblown (both, paradoxically in their importance and lack of importance). They seemed to become both a symbol of a claimed situation of our health service on the brink (“NHS will collapse if these vital gown don’t arrive by Friday”) as well as a symbol of the additional inadequacy of Govt response (“but they will only last 2 days anyway”).

And here were are, a couple of weeks later (? - I lose track) and we haven’t even used them. The NHS hasn’t collapsed, and to some extent the story (well the headlines anyway) seems to have moved on from PPE.

RochdalePioneers

I'm so excited. They are lifting the restriction on only going out once a day - the one that Does Not Exist in England - and letting people sit on the grass and park benches. Which aside from the odd publicised tweet from a police force somewhere is already happening widely.

So good, we don't have to have the "I'm going shopping / I'm going for exercise officer" excuse ready but fundamentally nothing has changed as you still have to do all of this contained within yiur immediate family unit.

As it's still a significant number of shops and businesses shut, still only a phased return to school from June, still WFH where possible I think the Tories have a MASSIVE presentational problem.

"Is that it?" will be the response to The Bozza when he does his much advertised speech on Sunday followed by furious headline writing not least in the Daily Mail on Monday who have made themselves look ludicrous today with their Boris fellating

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.

Someone has posted a video about it here:

https://onthewight.com/contact-tracing-app-watch-how-to-download-set-up-and-use/

Good luck, some app feedback would go down well here.

Appgate: Day 3. NHSX have tasked their development partner with looking at a switch to Apple/Google solution used by almost everyone else.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/nhs-explores-feasibility-moving-contact-tracing-app-apple-google/

Nigelb

Black_Rook said:

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

At this stage we don't know, do we? Trialling it is presumably the point of the Isle of Wight experiment. Although, given that they still can't get testing right - without which, the thing won't work anyway - I have severe reservations.

I was having a discussion about this last night. At the moment I'm losing faith and starting to despair. Right now, the probability of collapse and an uncontrolled tsunami wave of infections seems greater than that of successful containment.

If they are relying on the app, then the answer is no, for now.
I was thinking also about the teams supposedly being set up to do targeted community testing as part of the system, about which we have heard very little. For now we have the more or less untargeted and inefficiently run drive in system.

Fishing

Black_Rook said:

Our regular reminder: setting aside the very old and the very vulnerable, Covid-19 really is about as dangerous as a bad strain of seasonal flu:


Researchers from Stanford University in the US have been trying to count the risk another way - equating it to that which we face from dying while driving.

In the UK, they calculate that those under the age of 65 have faced the same risk over the past few months from coronavirus as they would have faced from driving 185 miles a day - the equivalent of commuting from Swindon to London.

Strip out the under-65s with health conditions - about one in 16 - and the risk is even lower, with deaths in non-vulnerable groups being "remarkably uncommon".

Indeed, I think under-30s without pre-existing conditions face about the same chance of being struck by lightning (1 in 1.2 million or so) as they do of dying from the Wuhan flu. A similar order of magnitude anyway. And certainly much, much less than dying in a traffic accident.

But despite all the money spent on teaching children maths, most people don't think rationally in this way. If something dominates the newspapers, the more neurotic will convince themselves it's a real probability they will get it, even if the chances are incredibly remote. Terrorists rely on this effect.

My favourite personal example of this is a 30-something friend who lectured me about how stupid I was to venture out without a facemask. While smoking a cigarette and drinking a can of beer.

IanB2

Fishing said:

Black_Rook said:

Our regular reminder: setting aside the very old and the very vulnerable, Covid-19 really is about as dangerous as a bad strain of seasonal flu:


Researchers from Stanford University in the US have been trying to count the risk another way - equating it to that which we face from dying while driving.

In the UK, they calculate that those under the age of 65 have faced the same risk over the past few months from coronavirus as they would have faced from driving 185 miles a day - the equivalent of commuting from Swindon to London.

Strip out the under-65s with health conditions - about one in 16 - and the risk is even lower, with deaths in non-vulnerable groups being "remarkably uncommon".

Indeed, I think under-30s without pre-existing conditions face about the same chance of being struck by lightning (1 in 1.2 million or so) as they do of dying from the Wuhan flu. A similar order of magnitude anyway. And certainly much, much less than dying in a traffic accident.

But despite all the money spent on teaching children maths, most people don't think rationally in this way. If something dominates the newspapers, the more nervously-inclined will convince themselves it's a real probability they will get it, even if the chances are incredibly remote. Terrorists rely on this effect.

My favourite personal example of this is a 30-something friend who lectured me about how stupid I was to venture out without a facemask. While smoking a cigarette and drinking a can of beer.

The clearest stat I saw (HT Tim Harford) is that, if you get the virus, it roughly doubles the chance you already have of dying during 2020 (of any cause), whatever your age and state of health. Capped at 100%, obvs.

OnlyLivingBoy

I'm sure the government know what they're doing.
Wait, what?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/all-400000-gowns-flown-from-turkey-for-nhs-fail-uk-standards

alex_

IanB2 said:

Good morning campers.

On the day that Henrietta and Eadric predicted we would reach one billion confirmed cases worldwide, I see the figure is 3.8 million. The growth in UK cases and US deaths continues to look anomalously high.

On Sunday we’ll be allowed to sit in the park and visit the garden centre, and maybe sit outside a cafe, and probably little else extra.

The thing is that at the sort of numbers we (and indeed most countries are at/reporting) the differences are arguably no more than a rounding error. The virus will likely infect 1/3 of the planet. That is what pandemics do. Either the thing is A LOT less harmful than is being made out, or all countries are only at the foot hills for returning to anything close to normality. The idea that all countries are on a single track to a final destination, determined almost entirely by a response over a small two week window seems unlikely. Talks of countries being “over the peak” and effectively on the road to elimination seems fanciful when in all cases this has happened by imposition of draconian measures that are now being relaxed. Numbers will surely begin to go up again as social distancing reduces and methods of spread are widened again. Unless it really is the reality that hot(ter) weather is a great protector against the virus. In which case we await the autumn...

OnlyLivingBoy

Black_Rook said:

Our regular reminder: setting aside the very old and the very vulnerable, Covid-19 really is about as dangerous as a bad strain of seasonal flu:


Researchers from Stanford University in the US have been trying to count the risk another way - equating it to that which we face from dying while driving.

In the UK, they calculate that those under the age of 65 have faced the same risk over the past few months from coronavirus as they would have faced from driving 185 miles a day - the equivalent of commuting from Swindon to London.

Strip out the under-65s with health conditions - about one in 16 - and the risk is even lower, with deaths in non-vulnerable groups being "remarkably uncommon".

Putting risk in perspective is going to be essential for individuals and decision-makers, the authors suggest.

If we do, we may learn to live with coronavirus. We may have to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692


The full piece is worth a read.

******

From a personal point of view, I don't worry about the health effects of my catching the virus, because I understand the risks and feel that I'm probably about as likely to get run over by a car or simply drop down dead of a heart attack whilst I'm out running. That doesn't put me off my exercise, or keep me lying awake at night, anymore than does the knowledge that I am likely to have to deal with a cancer diagnosis at some point during the course of my lifespan. If you worried about everything that could go wrong then you couldn't function.

What I do worry about is bringing it home to my asthmatic husband, however - which is why I still won't be off out on jollies like clothes shopping sprees and trips to cafes and restaurants every week, if and when those options become available.

I just feel that managing the presence of this disease around us involves striking the right balance, and walking the tightrope between becoming blasé on one hand and paranoid on the other. Even in our household we're going to want to go out for a treat occasionally when this option becomes available again - and that's led by the other half, not by me. Up until yesterday, when he had to go to the doctor's surgery, he'd not been more than 50 yards from the flat since he started working from home in March. There are good reasons why society chooses to punish criminals with incarceration: he's finding being caged very hard to bear. Even with my limited freedom, which is more akin to day release, the monotonous drudgery of it all is really beginning to grate.

Lockdown is a dreadful psychological burden on people and, as others more articulate than I have pointed out before, it is profoundly unhelpful for its hardline supporters to go around accusing anyone who points the fact out of being a reckless fool who wants people to die horribly. We must, at some point soon, start heading back out into the world - with extreme caution, to be sure - but it must be done nonetheless. We can't go on living like this.

If you had to drive from Swindon to London every day death would probably be a welcome respite.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.

Someone has posted a video about it here:

https://onthewight.com/contact-tracing-app-watch-how-to-download-set-up-and-use/

Good luck, some app feedback would go down well here.

Appgate: Day 3. NHSX have tasked their development partner with looking at a switch to Apple/Google solution used by almost everyone else.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/nhs-explores-feasibility-moving-contact-tracing-app-apple-google/

The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.

I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.

Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.

If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.

Mysticrose

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

DecrepiterJohnL

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I'm sure the government know what they're doing.
Wait, what?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/all-400000-gowns-flown-from-turkey-for-nhs-fail-uk-standards

They'd have done better using those Del Boy chancers from Labour's list. Stockpiles and supply chain logistics need their own inquiry tout suite, and as Dominic Cummings has been vocal on this in the past (albeit not in this context) we might even get one.

alex_

RochdalePioneers said:

I'm so excited. They are lifting the restriction on only going out once a day - the one that Does Not Exist in England - and letting people sit on the grass and park benches. Which aside from the odd publicised tweet from a police force somewhere is already happening widely.

So good, we don't have to have the "I'm going shopping / I'm going for exercise officer" excuse ready but fundamentally nothing has changed as you still have to do all of this contained within yiur immediate family unit.

As it's still a significant number of shops and businesses shut, still only a phased return to school from June, still WFH where possible I think the Tories have a MASSIVE presentational problem.

"Is that it?" will be the response to The Bozza when he does his much advertised speech on Sunday followed by furious headline writing not least in the Daily Mail on Monday who have made themselves look ludicrous today with their Boris fellating

On the other hand, given that most of the polls seem to indicate support for extending lockdown, maybe there will be private relief. Obviously the media will do their thing as they always do. I think what is most important is what happens in European countries over the next few weeks. We’ve got a second chance to be late for the party, but this time we will be learning from a position of relative* safety from, not exposure to, the virus (relative to planned direction of travel - notwithstanding that other countries had harsher lockdowns to ease from).

Mysticrose

IanB2 said:

Good morning campers.

On the day that Henrietta and Eadric predicted we would reach one billion confirmed cases worldwide, I see the figure is 3.8 million. The growth in UK cases and US deaths continues to look anomalously high.

On Sunday we’ll be allowed to sit in the park and visit the garden centre, and maybe sit outside a cafe, and probably little else extra.

I didn't see those predictions but presumably they were made before the world went into lockdown? That has been a game changer, as I'm sure you will acknowledge if you're not feeling cantankerous?

God only knows what would have happened if nowhere had taken these stringent measures, but it wouldn't have been good.

Theuniondivvie

Just what you'd want to break the lockdown tedium.

https://twitter.com/BBCGaryR/status/1258275596385255425?s=20

Scott_xP

Fishing

A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.

Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).

DecrepiterJohnL

alex_ said:

ydoethur said:

Oh lor. This just gets worse...

Coronavirus PPE: Gowns ordered from Turkey fail to meet safety standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

It seems to me the whole story of these Turkish gowns was massively overblown (both, paradoxically in their importance and lack of importance). They seemed to become both a symbol of a claimed situation of our health service on the brink (“NHS will collapse if these vital gown don’t arrive by Friday”) as well as a symbol of the additional inadequacy of Govt response (“but they will only last 2 days anyway”).

And here were are, a couple of weeks later (? - I lose track) and we haven’t even used them. The NHS hasn’t collapsed, and to some extent the story (well the headlines anyway) seems to have moved on from PPE.

Other way round. The symbolism of the Turkish order was it showed HMG was on the job despite the sniping from Labour and the papers about not contacting Del Boy Chancers, not even the ones who turned to exporting the kit they "did not have". Turkey was the big government order to save the NHS.

TGOHF666

I missed this - what next for dear Rory ? A University chancellorship ?

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1258278226088153093?s=21

alex_

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.

Someone has posted a video about it here:

https://onthewight.com/contact-tracing-app-watch-how-to-download-set-up-and-use/

Good luck, some app feedback would go down well here.

Appgate: Day 3. NHSX have tasked their development partner with looking at a switch to Apple/Google solution used by almost everyone else.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/nhs-explores-feasibility-moving-contact-tracing-app-apple-google/

The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.

I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.

Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.

If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.

Assuming anyone more that an insignificant minority are actually catching it from hard surfaces. And in a way that actually delivers a dangerous viral load. The lack of development on information about how this thing spreads is incredibly frustrating (although maybe it is there and haven’t been paying close enough attention).

Re:mobile batteries - buy shares in manufacturers of portable chargers!

DecrepiterJohnL

TGOHF666 said:

I missed this - what next for dear Rory ? A University chancellorship ?

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1258278226088153093?s=21

Rory is not a spy mayor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsZbY0tF1Zk

IanB2

TGOHF666 said:

I missed this - what next for dear Rory ? A University chancellorship ?

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1258278226088153093?s=21

Maybe he was the superspreader?

Mysticrose

TGOHF666 said:

I missed this - what next for dear Rory ? A University chancellorship ?

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1258278226088153093?s=21

He really has lost his way.

alex_

DecrepiterJohnL said:

alex_ said:

ydoethur said:

Oh lor. This just gets worse...

Coronavirus PPE: Gowns ordered from Turkey fail to meet safety standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

It seems to me the whole story of these Turkish gowns was massively overblown (both, paradoxically in their importance and lack of importance). They seemed to become both a symbol of a claimed situation of our health service on the brink (“NHS will collapse if these vital gown don’t arrive by Friday”) as well as a symbol of the additional inadequacy of Govt response (“but they will only last 2 days anyway”).

And here were are, a couple of weeks later (? - I lose track) and we haven’t even used them. The NHS hasn’t collapsed, and to some extent the story (well the headlines anyway) seems to have moved on from PPE.

Other way round. The symbolism of the Turkish order was it showed HMG was on the job despite the sniping from Labour and the papers about not contacting Del Boy Chancers, not even the ones who turned to exporting the kit they "did not have". Turkey was the big government order to save the NHS.

But still the same effect. It was all a story of spin from one side or another. OK so it’s a bit unusual for the Govt to be promoting a “24 hrs to save the NHS” line but it still wasn’t true. And if it wasn’t true then perhaps it didn’t matter to the Govt whether the gowns were safe or not. Because they were getting their supplies from elsewhere. Just not in one impressive soundingly large number.

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

Oh lor. This just gets worse...

Coronavirus PPE: Gowns ordered from Turkey fail to meet safety standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

Its the Govts fault that the supplier did not come up with satisfactory goods?

LostPassword

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

Theuniondivvie

I see we're at the stage where we hardly blink an eye when the government floats major policy and public health decisions via tabloid.

Mysticrose

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Oh lor. This just gets worse...

Coronavirus PPE: Gowns ordered from Turkey fail to meet safety standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

Its the Govts fault that the supplier did not come up with satisfactory goods?

No no. Whenever you buy something it's essential that you don't check first. Don't look at ratings. Don't read reviews. Don't do any research. Just buy. And then if it turns out to be a pile of crap it's entirely the suppliers' fault.

Tsk.

IanB2

7.30 and there is already a pleasant warmth in the air. Looks like a hot day is coming

tlg86

IanB2 said:

TGOHF666 said:

I missed this - what next for dear Rory ? A University chancellorship ?

https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1258278226088153093?s=21

Maybe he was the superspreader?

Perhaps that biopic will get made...

alex_

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

I don’t know anything about it, but it seems a strange world where govt critics are complaining of the development of a home grown NHS app, in preference to outsourcing to Apple or Google!

JohnLilburne

Theuniondivvie said:

I see we're at the stage where we hardly blink an eye when the government floats major policy and public health decisions via tabloid.

Hasn't that always happened?

Casino_Royale

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

eristdoof

Fishing said:

A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.

Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).

Your "very unlikely to be at risk" category includes the prime minister, who spent a couple of weeks in hospital.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

The one hour was always just advice.

There are cafes here already busily spacing out their outdoor tables, who are going to be disappointed if they can’t start serving next week.

Casino_Royale

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

kamski

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Good morning campers.

On the day that Henrietta and Eadric predicted we would reach one billion confirmed cases worldwide, I see the figure is 3.8 million. The growth in UK cases and US deaths continues to look anomalously high.

On Sunday we’ll be allowed to sit in the park and visit the garden centre, and maybe sit outside a cafe, and probably little else extra.

I didn't see those predictions but presumably they were made before the world went into lockdown? That has been a game changer, as I'm sure you will acknowledge if you're not feeling cantankerous?

God only knows what would have happened if nowhere had taken these stringent measures, but it wouldn't have been good.

The implication that a billion cases could be reached without any measures being taken, or behaviour changing is a bizarre fantasy. In fact, measures had already been taken when those "predictions" were made so your point is pointless.

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

As throughout this crisis.

IanB2

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.

Mexicanpete

Mysticrose said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

Oh lor. This just gets worse...

Coronavirus PPE: Gowns ordered from Turkey fail to meet safety standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

Its the Govts fault that the supplier did not come up with satisfactory goods?

No no. Whenever you buy something it's essential that you don't check first. Don't look at ratings. Don't read reviews. Don't do any research. Just buy. And then if it turns out to be a pile of crap it's entirely the suppliers' fault.

Tsk.

I hope we are getting a refund on shipping too. Didn't we scramble an RAF aircraft to then sit on the tarmac in Turkey for a day or two before returning with the dodgy cargo?

Casino_Royale

Fishing said:

A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.

Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).

Agreed.

Fishing

eristdoof said:

Fishing said:

A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.

Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).

Your "very unlikely to be at risk" category includes the prime minister, who spent a couple of weeks in hospital.

Yes, hence "very unlikely to be" rather than "won't be".

Casino_Royale

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Excellent post.

eek

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.

Um, no - if that was the case how would the return path of the NHS telling you that someone has been infected would.

The Apple Google version does something approaching what you describe, the NHS one is a data grab (for their know no better and Pivotal labs make their money from big complex databases)

JohnLilburne

alex_ said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.

Someone has posted a video about it here:

https://onthewight.com/contact-tracing-app-watch-how-to-download-set-up-and-use/

Good luck, some app feedback would go down well here.

Appgate: Day 3. NHSX have tasked their development partner with looking at a switch to Apple/Google solution used by almost everyone else.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/nhs-explores-feasibility-moving-contact-tracing-app-apple-google/

The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.

I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.

Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.

If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.

Assuming anyone more that an insignificant minority are actually catching it from hard surfaces. And in a way that actually delivers a dangerous viral load. The lack of development on information about how this thing spreads is incredibly frustrating (although maybe it is there and haven’t been paying close enough attention).

Re:mobile batteries - buy shares in manufacturers of portable chargers!

The 15 minute contact thing seems to have popped up again having not been mentioned since the beginning of the outbreak. Either it has always been reckoned likely and they have just been playing safe, or it's the result of research. I have also seen suggestions that outside spread is unlikely

eristdoof

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Good morning campers.

On the day that Henrietta and Eadric predicted we would reach one billion confirmed cases worldwide, I see the figure is 3.8 million. The growth in UK cases and US deaths continues to look anomalously high.

On Sunday we’ll be allowed to sit in the park and visit the garden centre, and maybe sit outside a cafe, and probably little else extra.

I didn't see those predictions but presumably they were made before the world went into lockdown? That has been a game changer, as I'm sure you will acknowledge if you're not feeling cantankerous?

God only knows what would have happened if nowhere had taken these stringent measures, but it wouldn't have been good.

Pretty much.
The predictions were made as the Italian cases were growing exponentially, and the deaths were starting to get worrying. The UK outbreak was just starting but not yet any deaths.

eek

Casino_Royale said:

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

Could you imagine what Whitby say would look like if people were allowed out.

People haven't been allowed out for 7 weeks a lot of people are going to overdo and do stupid things when this is lifted.

IanB2

kamski said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Good morning campers.

On the day that Henrietta and Eadric predicted we would reach one billion confirmed cases worldwide, I see the figure is 3.8 million. The growth in UK cases and US deaths continues to look anomalously high.

On Sunday we’ll be allowed to sit in the park and visit the garden centre, and maybe sit outside a cafe, and probably little else extra.

I didn't see those predictions but presumably they were made before the world went into lockdown? That has been a game changer, as I'm sure you will acknowledge if you're not feeling cantankerous?

God only knows what would have happened if nowhere had taken these stringent measures, but it wouldn't have been good.

The implication that a billion cases could be reached without any measures being taken, or behaviour changing is a bizarre fantasy. In fact, measures had already been taken when those "predictions" were made so your point is pointless.

Many on here said at the time that trying to fit a mathematical formula to a few early data points was always a complete waste of time. The surprise was that they kept it up for so long.

The countries that were in that early data - like China - were already taking firm measures, so the point about lockdown doesn’t really apply.

Lesson is not to make statistical projections without some understanding.

Casino_Royale

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

No, there isn’t. Our Government bureaucracy would probably take 6-12 months to develop a scheme like that.

The lockdown can’t last that long so the Government is going to need to take some calculated (and modest, in my view, compared to the alternatives) risks.

Sandpit

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

There's plenty of Tories who won't be touching it with a bargepole either, including for technical reasons and a total distrust of government agencies using and abusing the data.

The Apple/Google approach seems more reasonable, the Korea/China/UK/France approach looks like it came from those who think Orwell wrote instruction manuals for governments.

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.

No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.

RochdalePioneers

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

As throughout this crisis.

There is no one hour a day rule. There was a statement by a politician. The legal regulations say otherwise. Lifting a non-existent restriction is almost Brownian in its chicanery.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1258285951878602752

Sandpit

alex_ said:

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

I don’t know anything about it, but it seems a strange world where govt critics are complaining of the development of a home grown NHS app, in preference to outsourcing to Apple or Google!

Because the NHS app does't work properly and can't be made to work - as opposed to the Apple/Google solution which does work (for contact tracing, as opposed to any other purpose).

JohnLilburne

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

The one hour was always just advice.

There are cafes here already busily spacing out their outdoor tables, who are going to be disappointed if they can’t start serving next week.

I'm planning a long walk tomorrow. It's an attempt at normality as it's something I might do on a bank holiday anyway, although I normally wouldn't head out directly from my front door and would stop in a pub or two. I've not been observing the "one hour" rule either. The riskiest bits of exercise are normally the first kilometre or so, after that I either see no one or can easily pass on wide paths.

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

The one hour was always just advice.

There are cafes here already busily spacing out their outdoor tables, who are going to be disappointed if they can’t start serving next week.

It was a bit more than that though, wasn’t it?

You were allowed out once a day for essential exercise. Gove then said about an hour or a five minute drive was reasonable.

Many people then took their cue from that, including the police it seems.

Cafes reopening would be a win though.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.

No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.

No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.

Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.

Mexicanpete

Casino_Royale said:

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.

kamski

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

As throughout this crisis.

The not stopping to eat a picnic thing was always stupid. Either do a really strict shutdown (as in Milan, although I'm not sure it helped much not allowing people to go more than 200 metres from their homes), OR close certain activities and stop people gathering but don't tell people what they can or can't leave the house for or how many times a day or what activities are allowed in a park or other such nonsense (as here in Cologne).

RochdalePioneers

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

Could you imagine what Whitby say would look like if people were allowed out.

People haven't been allowed out for 7 weeks a lot of people are going to overdo and do stupid things when this is lifted.

It does raise the question - what precisely will the amended regulations say and what will that mean for your crowd descending on Whitby (other seaside Mecca's are available).

It sounds like they're ditching "stay home". But you still can't go to the pub or send your kids to school or shop where you want or see people outside your immediate. Public transport isn't coming back.

So when Whitby's carparks fill and people ditch cars anywhere. When the hordes descend towards the harbour where you absolutely cannot "stay safe" by socially distancing, what will the few remaining police be armed with? Right now they can move people on - I assume that power will be pulled.

We're back to herd immunity by the sounds of it.

Pulpstar

Nigelb said:

And another indication that spin is still more important than substance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/06/author-of-guardian-article-on-death-tolls-asks-government-to-stop-using-it

On a personal note, I’m pretty disgusted by the manner in which the government has avoided acknowledging its gross error on care homes, despite it being very clear that they are aware of it.

I hope you and others find justice at the future inquiry on this one

Jonathan

Government Policy response to highest deaths in Europe:

Go for a picnic.

Really?

Theuniondivvie

JohnLilburne said:

Theuniondivvie said:

I see we're at the stage where we hardly blink an eye when the government floats major policy and public health decisions via tabloid.

Hasn't that always happened?

Yep, those copies of 'Hurray, we're at war' front pages dated 01/09/39 are collectors' pieces.

I'm sure I've seen another Mail front page with Hurrah in the headline, can't quite put my finger on it.

Casino_Royale

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

Could you imagine what Whitby say would look like if people were allowed out.

People haven't been allowed out for 7 weeks a lot of people are going to overdo and do stupid things when this is lifted.

Nah, I don’t buy this. It’s the same thinking that said pensioners would just go straight out and buy a Ferrari following George Osborne’s reforms of the rules in drawing down lump sums from their pensions it tax free.

Most people are very sensible. The media and twitter will always be able to find some examples of silliness (just as you can find a few pensioners who bought a Ferrari) - which they’ll then present as typical - but they will be isolated.

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.

No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.

No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.

Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.

Not with the NHS solution, only with the A/G solution. the NHS solution is using a central database of contacts.

Saying that contacts are stored on phones is not saying that contacts are *only* stored on phones. The language used is deliberately vague.

eristdoof

FTP

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Fishing said:

isam said:

At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.

We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.

We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.

The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.

Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought

Hopefully never.

We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.

We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.

You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought

We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending

I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.

Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.

We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.

Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.

Isn't that less of an issue now than it was in the past?

We're more likely now to be speaking to a German who may have lost his grandfather in the war.

However even then I'd hope most Germans are glad they lost the war, even if there are personal tragedies. My best friend growing up lost his mother's mother in a concentration camp, I'm never going to have any sympathy to anyone who regrets or is upset with us having defeated the Nazis.

The name given to VE Day in Germany is "Tag der Befreiung" meaning "Day of liberation", which sums up the view here very well. It was the day that the evil of the Nazi government was removed. There are many sad personal stories of soldiers and civillians who died, people who were also victims os the Nazi regime even though they were fighting for them.

Tomorrow is a public holiday in Berlin (not the rest of the country) and only for this year because of the 75th anniversary.

JohnLilburne

RochdalePioneers said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

If, as reported, this “easing” is simply to be able to go out to exercise as much as you want and maintain social distancing - whilst the lockdown continues - then it’s not really much of an easing.

Plenty of people have already ditched the one hour a day rule - like me. This just means if you stop to eat a picnic or have a sunbathe you can’t be pinched by the rozzers.

This Government is following public opinion, not leading it.

As throughout this crisis.

There is no one hour a day rule. There was a statement by a politician. The legal regulations say otherwise. Lifting a non-existent restriction is almost Brownian in its chicanery.

What Gove said was "for most people, that might be an hour walk or half an hour run". As most people are sedentary, that's actually quite a lot. But in the same statement he said "do what you would normally do". Which for many runners is 10+ miles on a Sunday morning

Pulpstar

I don't remember a one hour rule, advice was to exercise as you normally do wasn't it ?

For one of my friends that was previously 60 mile bike rides on a regular basis !
I've been out for longer than an hour on occasion, but always from home and on my own whilst exercising

LostPassword

alex_ said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.

Someone has posted a video about it here:

https://onthewight.com/contact-tracing-app-watch-how-to-download-set-up-and-use/

Good luck, some app feedback would go down well here.

Appgate: Day 3. NHSX have tasked their development partner with looking at a switch to Apple/Google solution used by almost everyone else.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/nhs-explores-feasibility-moving-contact-tracing-app-apple-google/

The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.

I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.

Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.

If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.

Assuming anyone more that an insignificant minority are actually catching it from hard surfaces. And in a way that actually delivers a dangerous viral load. The lack of development on information about how this thing spreads is incredibly frustrating (although maybe it is there and haven’t been paying close enough attention).

Re:mobile batteries - buy shares in manufacturers of portable chargers!

One of the good reasons for centralizing the data from a contact tracing app is that it would help in working out the details of the transmission characteristics.

It feels very significant that the decision on that has been made by a pair of large companies, rather than by governments.

IanB2

eek said:

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.

Um, no - if that was the case how would the return path of the NHS telling you that someone has been infected would.

The Apple Google version does something approaching what you describe, the NHS one is a data grab (for their know no better and Pivotal labs make their money from big complex databases)

The contact details are of course recorded on the other phone. That’s where the contact data comes from.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Jonathan, we don't know what the reality is. Figures are difficult to compare due to both demographic differences and statistical reporting differences.

All we can say for certain is that there have been a significant number of deaths, but that the daily number is declining.

Edited extra bit: as well as trying to under-report to avoid bad headlines, some stats don't include care homes etc, and some do. Plus there are also cases of presumed COVID-19 without that being verified.

Frankly, the Government's approach to care homes, the app, and the earlier than previously thought spread due to the Chinese cover up are more significant than uncertain stats that are affected by different reporting measures.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

LostPassword said:

Mysticrose said:

Not the faintest chance I will use this App and I know others who feel the same.

I'd consider the Apple / Google one if it's proven it doesn't store data.

I've seen a lot of that view on facebook. Makes me very sad.

We need this app. We need it to work. We need as many people to use it as possible, despite their distrust and disgust of the Tories.

Otherwise people die.

The data is only stored on your own device until the point at which you choose to contact the NHS using it.

No, that's how the Apple/Google solution works. The NHS one works with a big database of names and locations behind it.

No, the data of who you have contacted is only stored on the device until you report positive. At that point it is shared and those people are pinged.

Records of contacts will be stored on phones. If a user comes down with coronavirus symptoms they report this in the app. That data is then shared with a health service database and their anonymous ID matched with other phones they have come into contact with.

Not with the NHS solution, only with the A/G solution. the NHS solution is using a central database of contacts.

Saying that contacts are stored on phones is not saying that contacts are *only* stored on phones. The language used is deliberately vague.

Then a lot of media reporting so far has been wrong. Let’s see what they tell me when the notification arrives.

My guess is that the central database is simply a record of who has downloaded the app in the first place. Which is hardly a big intrusion.

The intrusion to worry about is the NHS keeping a count of how many times my married lover has come round.

Pulpstar

eristdoof said:

Fishing said:

A second example of irrationality just occurred to me - I was walking along a narrow pavement yesterday and a woman walked out into the road without looking to avoid me - taking the far greater risk of being run over to avoid the negligible risk of catching the virus.

Anyway, the point of all this is that the lockdown should end tomorrow (should never have been imposed) for anyone very unlikely to be at risk - the young and middle-aged without pre-existing conditions. And the elderly should isolate themselves as much as possible (though, to avoid legal discrimination, it should be strictly voluntary).

Your "very unlikely to be at risk" category includes the prime minister, who spent a couple of weeks in hospital.

Over 50 male and obese is a magnitude more at risk than 35, healthy weight female

eek

One for the PB historians

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1258283158426058754

Can someone tell me why 1706 was so bad, a quick google search doesn't tell me anything beyond the negotiations for the 1707 Act of Union and the battle to get the Hanoverian dynasty as the family to replace Queen Anne.

Or is it that the Bank of England don't have figures going back before 1706?

kamski

LostPassword said:

alex_ said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

Black_Rook said:

I'm still not expecting much from the Government. A road map (maybe with some dates in it, maybe not.) The garden centres perhaps? A little more freedom than "once a day" to go outside and enjoy the fresh air. Not much else.

Certainly if they do try to be bold then they have to be aware of the serious risk that the disease starts ramping back up again, they fail to control it, and then a subsequent attempt to retighten the lockdown falls flat on its face.

The bargain between the Government and the people is that lockdown, which makes almost everyone thoroughly miserable, is what we have to endure to buy the authorities time to put a lid on the virus. If it becomes obvious that the Government can't keep its end of the bargain then any attempts to incarcerate the populace for a second time will be met with despair ('this is going to go on forever'; 'it's not helping so what's the point?') and anger ('we did what you told us and you still fucked everything up, surprise surprise') followed by mass disobedience. If enough people give up on the lockdown and insist on going where they want, when they want - visiting Granny, having dinner parties for friends, playing football down the park, driving to the coast every time the Sun comes out, telling the two metre rule to get knotted - then the police don't have the strength in numbers to enforce the rules.

If it becomes obvious to the public that every available course of action eventually leads to mass death from this disease, then our unity of purpose will collapse and we'll split into two groups: terrified shielders who continue to try to ride the thing out at home, and fatalists who reason 'what's the point in stewing in our juices whilst the country collapses around us, if we're essentially only buying all the people we're meant to be saving an extra handful of months?' And the latter group will be resigned to letting the disease rip through the population and take whoever it is going to take with it. Some of them won't care, but most will simply have given up all hope that it can be stopped and given in to the inevitable.

The Prime Minister simply has to get easing right at the first attempt. He will get no second chance.

Is there any sign that they have an effective track and trace program ready to roll ?
If not, this is likely to end badly.

We island residents are supposed to be getting our letters with details of how to access the new App some time today.

Someone has posted a video about it here:

https://onthewight.com/contact-tracing-app-watch-how-to-download-set-up-and-use/

Good luck, some app feedback would go down well here.

Appgate: Day 3. NHSX have tasked their development partner with looking at a switch to Apple/Google solution used by almost everyone else.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/nhs-explores-feasibility-moving-contact-tracing-app-apple-google/

The local news site’s video suggests that accessing the App will be very easy.

I will be interested to see how much more quickly it drains the battery.

Otherwise it looks like we will only hear from the App if we have been in contact with a confirmed infection. Which, if we are following the government guidelines, shouldn’t happen. I will be interested to see whether there is any explanation as to how (and how accurately) ‘contact’ is being defined and measured. There will be a big difference in terms of alerts between being close to someone for fifteen minutes and squeezing past someone briefly on a narrow path or pavement.

If someone comes into contact with the virus on a hard surface, the App clearly can’t help - until their positive test comes through.

Assuming anyone more that an insignificant minority are actually catching it from hard surfaces. And in a way that actually delivers a dangerous viral load. The lack of development on information about how this thing spreads is incredibly frustrating (although maybe it is there and haven’t been paying close enough attention).

Re:mobile batteries - buy shares in manufacturers of portable chargers!

One of the good reasons for centralizing the data from a contact tracing app is that it would help in working out the details of the transmission characteristics.

It feels very significant that the decision on that has been made by a pair of large companies, rather than by governments.

Yes, and it's time we woke up to how much power they have.

I don't know enough about these apps to have an opinion on them, but it does scare me that private US companies might be able to make or break governments' public health emergency policies.

kjh

I see the debate as to who is more intelligent, men or women, has been resolved. Poll in America gives Trump a 2% lead with men, but a 20% deficit with women.

JohnLilburne

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.

They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun

Casino_Royale

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1258285951878602752

Brave Sir Robin..

MattW

Theuniondivvie said:

Just what you'd want to break the lockdown tedium.

https://twitter.com/BBCGaryR/status/1258275596385255425?s=20

Which will give him policies to be implemented by his Scottish Labour MPs.

Oh.

Jonathan

eristdoof said:

FTP

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Fishing said:

isam said:

At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.

We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.

We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.

The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.

Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought

Hopefully never.

We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.

We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.

You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought

We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending

I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.

Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.

We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.

Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.

Isn't that less of an issue now than it was in the past?

We're more likely now to be speaking to a German who may have lost his grandfather in the war.

However even then I'd hope most Germans are glad they lost the war, even if there are personal tragedies. My best friend growing up lost his mother's mother in a concentration camp, I'm never going to have any sympathy to anyone who regrets or is upset with us having defeated the Nazis.

The name given to VE Day in Germany is "Tag der Befreiung" meaning "Day of liberation", which sums up the view here very well. It was the day that the evil of the Nazi government was removed. There are many sad personal stories of soldiers and civillians who died, people who were also victims os the Nazi regime even though they were fighting for them.

Tomorrow is a public holiday in Berlin (not the rest of the country) and only for this year because of the 75th anniversary.

My in laws family included a young Man / boy conscripted to,captured and then imprisoned on the Russian front, uncles and aunts incinerated in Dresden and brothers active in the SPD disappeared in the 30s. My grandmother in law was raped repeatedly during the fall of Berlin.

They had much is to be thankful for when the Nazis were ultimately defeated and normality returned. A day for them to remember and reflect.

LostPassword

Casino_Royale said:

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

Big change in the weather on Saturday (in the north) and then Sunday (further south) as Arctic air is dragged down by a migrating Greenland high.

Casino_Royale

JohnLilburne said:

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

It’s also pretty cynical to wait until Sunday to make the official announcement given the review is today. It’s going to be a lovely day tomorrow (and may well be all weekend) and people want to know if they can go out and enjoy it.

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence. They fear big VE Day crowds, but I think that’s misplaced.

I think it was a knee-jerk reaction from Boris. He was being mullered by Starmer at PMQs. Swirling around his head would have been tomorrow's negative headlines, and then the lightbulb moment! By saying something about easing lockdown all the bad headlines go away and PMQs is a default Boris win! Boom! And then everything runs away from him and the furious backpedaling begins.

They've been floating ideas about lifting the lockdown all week in the press. It was always going to happen. Although I think most changes won't happen until the end of the next three week review period. Maybe we'll be allowed out at Whitsun

I no longer consider myself bound by these stupid rules. They’ve lost all credibility with me.

I will maintain social distancing, sure, but otherwise (when I’m not working - rare) I’ll go out whenever I want to do whatever I want with my family.

IanB2

"If, when they input their symptoms into the app, it’s deemed it could be coronavirus, the user will then have the option to send all contact data to a centralised database connected to the app. Information in this database will be used to identify other users potentially at risk, trace the spread of Covid-19 and inform the governments response."

The database is simply a phone directory of who has the App.

rkrkrk

Fishing said:

Black_Rook said:

Our regular reminder: setting aside the very old and the very vulnerable, Covid-19 really is about as dangerous as a bad strain of seasonal flu:


Researchers from Stanford University in the US have been trying to count the risk another way - equating it to that which we face from dying while driving.

In the UK, they calculate that those under the age of 65 have faced the same risk over the past few months from coronavirus as they would have faced from driving 185 miles a day - the equivalent of commuting from Swindon to London.

Strip out the under-65s with health conditions - about one in 16 - and the risk is even lower, with deaths in non-vulnerable groups being "remarkably uncommon".

Indeed, I think under-30s without pre-existing conditions face about the same chance of being struck by lightning (1 in 1.2 million or so) as they do of dying from the Wuhan flu. A similar order of magnitude anyway. And certainly much, much less than dying in a traffic accident.

But despite all the money spent on teaching children maths, most people don't think rationally in this way. If something dominates the newspapers, the more neurotic will convince themselves it's a real probability they will get it, even if the chances are incredibly remote. Terrorists rely on this effect.

That stat looks complete garbage to me.

If that were true, we might expect 1 or 2 people under 30 without underlying
conditions to have died so far in the UK.

Alanbrooke

eristdoof said:

FTP

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Fishing said:

isam said:

At what point do we stop celebrating VE Day? We are not Germany’s enemies after all. We were talking about this over dinner and my missus said why not celebrate it as ‘the end of the war’ without mentioning ‘victory’ and maybe Germany could join in, making it a celebration of peace.

We still commemorate the end of WW1 of course.

We were never Germany's enemy, as our behaviour after WW2 clearly showed. We were Nazism's enemy. And we still are. I think it's good to remember what our ancestors fought for in that terrible struggle and why.

The Germans can join in if they want. After all, some Germans suffered under Nazism too - not just the 5 million dead in the war. Of course it will be more complicated for them.

Yes I just meant stop celebrating ‘victory’ and celebrate ‘the end of the war’ really, not to forget it happened or why people fought

Hopefully never.

We should remember our history - the good, the bad and the ugly. Lest we forget.

We should cease to celebrate victory on VE Day about the same time as the Americans cease to celebrate July 4th, or the French cease to celebrate Bastille Day.

You’re replying to a post where I say we should celebrate the end of the war, not to forget it or why people fought

We are friends with Germany, I don’t think it’s friendly to celebrate ‘victory’ where million of Germans died. We should celebrate the war ending

I couldn't disagree more with that logic though.

Americans celebrate victory in their war of independence against us. Doesn't mean they hate us.

We defeated the Nazis. We absolutely should celebrate that as a key moment in our history. The Germans today are not the Nazis. As well as liberating France etc, Hitler's downfall liberated Germany too, that's something to celebrate all around.

Well it’s ok to disagree. I wouldn’t be comfortable celebrating ‘victory’ in front of a German who’d lost his father in the war, so I think we should cease calling it a victory. Yes we defeated the Nazis, but millions of Germans who died were not Nazis.

Isn't that less of an issue now than it was in the past?

We're more likely now to be speaking to a German who may have lost his grandfather in the war.

However even then I'd hope most Germans are glad they lost the war, even if there are personal tragedies. My best friend growing up lost his mother's mother in a concentration camp, I'm never going to have any sympathy to anyone who regrets or is upset with us having defeated the Nazis.

The name given to VE Day in Germany is "Tag der Befreiung" meaning "Day of liberation", which sums up the view here very well. It was the day that the evil of the Nazi government was removed. There are many sad personal stories of soldiers and civillians who died, people who were also victims os the Nazi regime even though they were fighting for them.

Tomorrow is a public holiday in Berlin (not the rest of the country) and only for this year because of the 75th anniversary.

Maybe

but if you were in the East swapping Hitler for Stalin wasn't exactly liberation.