I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
The notion of mass testing and tracking outbreaks looks a feasible response and signs from Germany suggest a premature easing might cause problems.
I don't think the signs from Germany do suggest that. I am prepared to be corrected on the latest figures, but I haven't yet seen any figures that say that the German R0 rate is estimated to have gone back above 1. As of yesterday the 7 day case average was still trending strongly down.
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
I mean how stupid and greedy do you have to be to do this?
Talking hypothetically rather than about this particular case (because the individual may or may not be found to be at fault here,) someone committing a breach such as this could legitimately be described as greedy, but not necessarily stupid. It all depends on the size of the payout on the bet.
If it's considerably greater than the potential fine (which it probably will be) then you're still in the black. Thus, if all our hypothetical footballer cares about is money (and he doesn't consider any potential damage to his public image to have a significant bearing on the state of his finances,) then making the bet is a sensible decision. Best case you don't get caught and you make lots of and lots of money, worst case you are caught and fined and then you just make lots of money. Either way you're richer.
It is stupid, because there is no real liquidity in such markets, not in comparison to a footballers wages.
Its like being an successful international diamond robber and then deciding to knock off the corner shop in your lunchtime.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Plus the British state will come under considerable stress over the coming year, so the SNP could exploit its moment of weakness.
You can tell the government weren’t taking it seriously enough at the start because the Health Minister went down with Covid-19. As did the Health Secretary. As did the Prime Minister. And his partner. And the Chief Medical Officer.
None of them understood what they were dealing with at even the most basic level.
That's a very weak complaint. Lots of politicians, medical officers and officials around the world have gone down with this virus, presumably because they meet a lot of people and spend a lot of time in meetings talking.
The fact that the Chief Medical Officer was one of them rather destroys your argument. Is he on your list of ignorant, incompetent, Brexit-obsessed dilettantes?
I haven’t mentioned Brexit at all. And yes, I do think the Chief Medical Officer has performed poorly.
But like all fish, this one rots from the head. The fact that the Prime Minister took half of February off and couldn’t be bothered to turn up to five Cobra meetings on the subject is indicative of a hallmark lack of urgency or interest in dull detail. And he was found out.
I am afraid you are working backwards from your conclusion, like many others. You might have had a point if the SAGE group and the COBRA meetings were recommending urgent action which Boris didn't bother to read or implement. But there is absolutely zero evidence of that, quite the opposite.
It is highly unusual for a Prime Minister to miss so many Cobra meetings. And simply opening a newspaper would have alerted the Prime Minister to the nature of the danger. A Prime Minister who took his responsibilities seriously (just about all of his predecessors) would have been asking searching questions. But he couldn’t be arsed.
The notion of mass testing and tracking outbreaks looks a feasible response and signs from Germany suggest a premature easing might cause problems.
I don't think the signs from Germany do suggest that. I am prepared to be corrected on the latest figures, but I haven't yet seen any figures that say that the German R0 rate is estimated to have gone back above 1. As of yesterday the 7 day case average was still trending strongly down.
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
I don't disagree with that - I think we need more time given the speed of infection before we can pass judgement on the German easing of restrictions but as you say the German numbers on tests, cases and deaths look so much better than those of France, Italy, Spain or the UK.
Can't win either way. You don't say past the peak and you have opposition politicians saying you aren't treating the public like adults, you do tell them and then you are accused of encouraging reckless behaviour.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
I mean how stupid and greedy do you have to be to do this?
Talking hypothetically rather than about this particular case (because the individual may or may not be found to be at fault here,) someone committing a breach such as this could legitimately be described as greedy, but not necessarily stupid. It all depends on the size of the payout on the bet.
If it's considerably greater than the potential fine (which it probably will be) then you're still in the black. Thus, if all our hypothetical footballer cares about is money (and he doesn't consider any potential damage to his public image to have a significant bearing on the state of his finances,) then making the bet is a sensible decision. Best case you don't get caught and you make lots of and lots of money, worst case you are caught and fined and then you just make lots of money. Either way you're richer.
It is stupid, because there is no real liquidity in such markets, not in comparison to a footballers wages.
Its like being an successful international diamond robber and then deciding to knock off the corner shop in your lunchtime.
Bookies love footballers accounts, listening to the massive quantity of bets Joey Barton made affirmed that.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
Kenny MacAskill has made a lot of noises about not pushing for a referendum until we know What Brexit Means, which is at least a decade away. There's a decent number of Leavers in the SNP and they might be happy with the fish.
Matt Hancock boasts he has hit 100,000-a-day testing target but only if you don't mind counting multiple tests on the same person and 40,000 kits that were posted to patients but not processed!
It might come as news to the Daily Mail, but testing people multiple times in a day is a good thing....and they have been doing this since very early on.
Even by the 100k people tested, there was 73k people tested. From the start position to there, and given Wales / Scotland have not managed to increase at all, that isn't a bad effort.
Matt Hancock boasts he has hit 100,000-a-day testing target but only if you don't mind counting multiple tests on the same person and 40,000 kits that were posted to patients but not processed!
It might come as news to the Daily Mail, but testing people multiple times in a day is a good thing....and they have been doing this since very early on.
I get that but not until you had explained it to me, I suspect most people think 100,000 tests means 100,000 people have been tested. That nuance should be communicated and perhaps we should look at the numbers of people being tested with the same forensic detail as we seem to be applying to the actual number of tests.
It might come as news to the Daily Mail, but testing people multiple times in a day is a good thing....and they have been doing this since very early on.
As do Germany, Italy, and everybody else. For example, Italy's 68k tests yesterday were on 41k people.
The notion of mass testing and tracking outbreaks looks a feasible response and signs from Germany suggest a premature easing might cause problems.
I don't think the signs from Germany do suggest that. I am prepared to be corrected on the latest figures, but I haven't yet seen any figures that say that the German R0 rate is estimated to have gone back above 1. As of yesterday the 7 day case average was still trending strongly down.
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
The crucial parameter when deciding whether or not to ease the restrictions should be the R0 factor. It needs to be so far below 1 that the uptick from easing restrictions doesn't catapult you back into exponential growth territory.
The most interesting soundbite from Mr Johnson's comeback presser was his estimate that the UK's R0 was "between 0.6 and 0.9". Over the last week the UK has reported almost 40k new cases.
The RKI has verbally communicated (but not yet officially published) R0 moving between 0.75 and 1.0. Reported new infections ca. 10k.
I mean how stupid and greedy do you have to be to do this?
Talking hypothetically rather than about this particular case (because the individual may or may not be found to be at fault here,) someone committing a breach such as this could legitimately be described as greedy, but not necessarily stupid. It all depends on the size of the payout on the bet.
If it's considerably greater than the potential fine (which it probably will be) then you're still in the black. Thus, if all our hypothetical footballer cares about is money (and he doesn't consider any potential damage to his public image to have a significant bearing on the state of his finances,) then making the bet is a sensible decision. Best case you don't get caught and you make lots of and lots of money, worst case you are caught and fined and then you just make lots of money. Either way you're richer.
It is stupid, because there is no real liquidity in such markets, not in comparison to a footballers wages.
Its like being an successful international diamond robber and then deciding to knock off the corner shop in your lunchtime.
Bookies love footballers accounts, listening to the massive quantity of bets Joey Barton made affirmed that.
Not when they’re selling horses on the spreads...
Back at the turn of the century, a pretty darn famous manager used to love putting his own team in his Saturday acca with the firm I worked for.
Matt Hancock boasts he has hit 100,000-a-day testing target but only if you don't mind counting multiple tests on the same person and 40,000 kits that were posted to patients but not processed!
It might come as news to the Daily Mail, but testing people multiple times in a day is a good thing....and they have been doing this since very early on.
I get that but not until you had explained it to me, I suspect most people think 100,000 tests means 100,000 people have been tested. That nuance should be communicated and perhaps we should look at the numbers of people being tested with the same forensic detail as we seem to be applying to the actual number of tests.
To be fair, it has been in the tweets every day from very near the start of the outbreak. On this I don't think the government have been trying to pull any fast ones.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
We've got our own currency. Scotland hasn't. It's a huge deal.
Just had a glance on politics twitter, and as expected, lots of people desperately unhappy at any good news.
Yes all the obvious ones.. Piers Morgan etc
I am convinced if this current government had been in power during WWII, some would be happily cheering on every allied failure and playing down every success.
But minister, leaked documents revealed that the estimated casualties for this operation was 2500. Can you please apologize to the families for getting these people killed.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
Can't win either way. You don't say past the peak and you have opposition politicians saying you aren't treating the public like adults, you do tell them and then you are accused of encouraging reckless behaviour.
Well, there's at least one pol saying that the UK has avoided the tragedy that's befallen other countries, and there's the rest of us saying stop being a crass fcuking idiot.
Just had a glance on politics twitter, and as expected, lots of people desperately unhappy at any good news.
Yes all the obvious ones.. Piers Morgan etc
I am convinced if this current government had been in power during WWII, some would be happily cheering on every allied failure and playing down every success.
But minister, leaked documents revealed that the estimated casualties for this operation was 2500. Can you please apologize to the families for getting these people killed.
On the plus side, they'd have been taken to the Tower....
Hancock - Our goal is to first liberate the beaches of Northern France by the end of the month.
Piers Morgan - What a waste of space, we should be liberating the whole of France immediately. Why haven't we done this faster.
------
Hancock - We have captured all the beaches.
Piers Morgan - You said we would capture the beaches by the 30th, we have only captured 4/5th of them.
Hancock - We are just finishing off the last pocket of resistance of the 5th beach.
Piers Morgan - Yes but minister you have failed haven't you, miserable, piss poor effort, what as waste of space. How many people have you killed pursuing this stupid aspiration. We should have liberated from the South first.
The Irish government’s five stage plan. They seem to think they will get to stage five by mid August with each stage three weeks later than the previous one.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Wasn't the basic problem we joined at 2.95DM to the pound which was unsupportable given the economic disparity between the UK and Germany in terms of interest rates, inflation and other measures?
That was decided by a Conservative Government led by Margaret Thatcher.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
If we get a Black Wednesday style Sterling crisis then we'll be glad to have our own Central Bank. It is the lack of our own Central Bank being in charge that caused Black Wednesday and it is a lack of having their own Central Bank that is causing EU nations such distress.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Wasn't the basic problem we joined at 2.95DM to the pound which was unsupportable given the economic disparity between the UK and Germany in terms of interest rates, inflation and other measures?
That was decided by a Conservative Government led by Margaret Thatcher.
I think the exchange rate was probably right at the time. But two years later, the economic fundamentals had shifted substantially. (And two years later on, they were different again). The problem wasn't the rate itself, it was the absurdity of fixing the rate between two very different economies.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Just had a glance on politics twitter, and as expected, lots of people desperately unhappy at any good news.
Yes all the obvious ones.. Piers Morgan etc
I am convinced if this current government had been in power during WWII, some would be happily cheering on every allied failure and playing down every success.
But minister, leaked documents revealed that the estimated casualties for this operation was 2500. Can you please apologize to the families for getting these people killed.
It is rather reminiscent of the much exaggerated claims of Luftwaffe planes shot down during the Battle of Britain.
I mean how stupid and greedy do you have to be to do this?
Talking hypothetically rather than about this particular case (because the individual may or may not be found to be at fault here,) someone committing a breach such as this could legitimately be described as greedy, but not necessarily stupid. It all depends on the size of the payout on the bet.
If it's considerably greater than the potential fine (which it probably will be) then you're still in the black. Thus, if all our hypothetical footballer cares about is money (and he doesn't consider any potential damage to his public image to have a significant bearing on the state of his finances,) then making the bet is a sensible decision. Best case you don't get caught and you make lots of and lots of money, worst case you are caught and fined and then you just make lots of money. Either way you're richer.
It is stupid, because there is no real liquidity in such markets, not in comparison to a footballers wages.
Its like being an successful international diamond robber and then deciding to knock off the corner shop in your lunchtime.
Bookies love footballers accounts, listening to the massive quantity of bets Joey Barton made affirmed that.
Not when they’re selling horses on the spreads...
Back at the turn of the century, a pretty darn famous manager used to love putting his own team in his Saturday acca with the firm I worked for.
Insurance betting was the norm on the snooker circuit until relatively recently.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Gone backwards in a month.
I know for the umpteenth time you think (erroneously yet again) that you've got your magic SNP killing silver bullet, but you might as well use the correct numbers or folk might think you're talking through your arse on a subject you know nothing about..
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
They're not posting out any are they?
Union doesn't believe the Scottish governments own figures of 2,063.
It was in today's briefing which you presumably don't watch for Hunnish patriotic reasons.
The Scottish govt released the tweets - not my problem if they have 2 sets of books.
Those aren't Scottish Government tweets. They are from Holyrood current affairs magazine. That does make a difference to your conclision.
TUD quoted the Holyrood Mag - TGHOF666 the Scottish government’s tweets. Which is reliable?
Hmm, I checked. TUD did indeed quote the mag, which is fair enough, but in his posting at 5:48 TGoHF666 clearly ascribed the "tweets" to the Scottish Gmt - no other tweets present to be the ones he meant?
The tweets are obviously reporting the FM's press conference, if you look at the whole thread, but that is not the same thing as official SG tweets.
So which ones are accurate? The Scottish govt, or the Holyrood Mag report?
I can't reply to that as the SG tweets to which Mr ex-Flashman refers are apparently nonexistent
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Gone backwards in a month.
I know for the umpteenth time you think (erroneously yet again) that you've got your magic SNP killing silver bullet, but you might as well use the correct numbers or folk might think you're talking through your arse on a subject you know nothing about..
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
They're not posting out any are they?
Union doesn't believe the Scottish governments own figures of 2,063.
It was in today's briefing which you presumably don't watch for Hunnish patriotic reasons.
The Scottish govt released the tweets - not my problem if they have 2 sets of books.
Those aren't Scottish Government tweets. They are from Holyrood current affairs magazine. That does make a difference to your conclision.
TUD quoted the Holyrood Mag - TGHOF666 the Scottish government’s tweets. Which is reliable?
Hmm, I checked. TUD did indeed quote the mag, which is fair enough, but in his posting at 5:48 TGoHF666 clearly ascribed the "tweets" to the Scottish Gmt - no other tweets present to be the ones he meant?
The tweets are obviously reporting the FM's press conference, if you look at the whole thread, but that is not the same thing as official SG tweets.
So which ones are accurate? The Scottish govt, or the Holyrood Mag report?
I can't reply to that as the SG tweets to which Mr ex-Flashman refers are apparently nonexistent
Ands you can stop editing my responses in a misleading way. What UI said was "I can't reply to that as the SG tweets to which Mr ex-Flashman refers are apparently nonexistent, which is the entire burden of my last response. He may have posted some in anotgher post, but how do I know which he meant?"
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
The notion of mass testing and tracking outbreaks looks a feasible response and signs from Germany suggest a premature easing might cause problems.
I don't think the signs from Germany do suggest that. I am prepared to be corrected on the latest figures, but I haven't yet seen any figures that say that the German R0 rate is estimated to have gone back above 1. As of yesterday the 7 day case average was still trending strongly down.
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
The crucial parameter when deciding whether or not to ease the restrictions should be the R0 factor. It needs to be so far below 1 that the uptick from easing restrictions doesn't catapult you back into exponential growth territory.
The most interesting soundbite from Mr Johnson's comeback presser was his estimate that the UK's R0 was "between 0.6 and 0.9". Over the last week the UK has reported almost 40k new cases.
The RKI has verbally communicated (but not yet officially published) R0 moving between 0.75 and 1.0. Reported new infections ca. 10k.
Something doesn't add up there.
It's quite likely that if the UK had tested 100,000 people per day at the start of April we would have had 40k positive results. That's the difference, the UK is starting from a high base, much higher than Germany because our horrible and late start. Germany shut down public events in a much more timely manner and generally took the situation seriously. The UK government allowed Cheltenham to go ahead and football matches. That's the disaster we're currently paying for. On the scale Germany is second only to Korea in terms of the quality of response to the virus. The UK is near the bottom of the league with Italy, Spain and the US.
The problem starts on the way down of the virus not the way up. I'm expecting both Johnson/Tory and Sturgeon/SNP popularity to take a big hit as we start drawing closer to ending lockdown/winter second peak happening.
Sometimes it is wise to save your criticisms for the correct moment. If you are simply restlessly "everything is bullshit", people switch off.
It is like the outrage over government cuts, every single thing was "back to Wigan Pier", people switched off, so when they did cut back things that probably weren't a good idea, nobody was listening.
If I were in charge of the stats, in order to keep the "proportion of positive tests" meaningful I think I would have preferred the daily testing number to be "test results recorded today" rather than tests physically performed or dispensed. But that's not specifically about today (though this has highlighted the issue) and some kind of distortion will have occurred at all periods when the testing capacity was being expanded rapidly. I would also have wanted to sepatate the results by pillar, would have been rather more useful for end users I suspect.
It might come as news to the Daily Mail, but testing people multiple times in a day is a good thing....and they have been doing this since very early on.
As do Germany, Italy, and everybody else. For example, Italy's 68k tests yesterday were on 41k people.
In Italy I don't think it is 68k tests on 41k yesterday but 68k tests involding 41k new people. The 27k already tested may have not been tested twice yesterday but just had a previous test. The healed ones need to have 2 negative tests, with the second test 48 hours after the first. So they have at least 3 tests in the end given they had a positive one at the beginning.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Gone backwards in a month.
I know for the umpteenth time you think (erroneously yet again) that you've got your magic SNP killing silver bullet, but you might as well use the correct numbers or folk might think you're talking through your arse on a subject you know nothing about..
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
They're not posting out any are they?
Union doesn't believe the Scottish governments own figures of 2,063.
It was in today's briefing which you presumably don't watch for Hunnish patriotic reasons.
The Scottish govt released the tweets - not my problem if they have 2 sets of books.
Those aren't Scottish Government tweets. They are from Holyrood current affairs magazine. That does make a difference to your conclision.
TUD quoted the Holyrood Mag - TGHOF666 the Scottish government’s tweets. Which is reliable?
Hmm, I checked. TUD did indeed quote the mag, which is fair enough, but in his posting at 5:48 TGoHF666 clearly ascribed the "tweets" to the Scottish Gmt - no other tweets present to be the ones he meant?
The tweets are obviously reporting the FM's press conference, if you look at the whole thread, but that is not the same thing as official SG tweets.
So which ones are accurate? The Scottish govt, or the Holyrood Mag report?
I can't reply to that as the SG tweets to which Mr ex-Flashman refers are apparently nonexistent
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
No, as tieing our currencies to the rest of Europe's means we cannot take the fiscal action we need, see Germany, Italy and Greece, the latter have to follow the former who run the Eurozone effectively
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Wasn't the basic problem we joined at 2.95DM to the pound which was unsupportable given the economic disparity between the UK and Germany in terms of interest rates, inflation and other measures?
That was decided by a Conservative Government led by Margaret Thatcher.
No the basic problem was that we didn't have a freely floating exchange rate backed by our own independentedly operating Central Bank.
Same problem that has repeatedly hit the Eurozone since then.
It is rather reminiscent of the much exaggerated claims of Luftwaffe planes shot down during the Battle of Britain.
Just on that narrow point, we knew almost to the plane how many Luftwaffe aircraft were shot down because the battle was fought in the skies above Britain so it was a simple matter of counting the wrecks when they hit the ground in Kent. It was the Nazis who overestimated how many RAF fighters they'd destroyed because they could only use the less reliable metric of asking the pilots, so if two or three pilots claimed the same victim, and to be fair, they had all been shooting at it when it went down, overestimates were inevitable.
The notion of mass testing and tracking outbreaks looks a feasible response and signs from Germany suggest a premature easing might cause problems.
I don't think the signs from Germany do suggest that. I am prepared to be corrected on the latest figures, but I haven't yet seen any figures that say that the German R0 rate is estimated to have gone back above 1. As of yesterday the 7 day case average was still trending strongly down.
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
The crucial parameter when deciding whether or not to ease the restrictions should be the R0 factor. It needs to be so far below 1 that the uptick from easing restrictions doesn't catapult you back into exponential growth territory.
The most interesting soundbite from Mr Johnson's comeback presser was his estimate that the UK's R0 was "between 0.6 and 0.9". Over the last week the UK has reported almost 40k new cases.
The RKI has verbally communicated (but not yet officially published) R0 moving between 0.75 and 1.0. Reported new infections ca. 10k.
Something doesn't add up there.
It's quite likely that if the UK had tested 100,000 people per day at the start of April we would have had 40k positive results. That's the difference, the UK is starting from a high base, much higher than Germany because our horrible and late start. Germany shut down public events in a much more timely manner and generally took the situation seriously. The UK government allowed Cheltenham to go ahead and football matches. That's the disaster we're currently paying for. On the scale Germany is second only to Korea in terms of the quality of response to the virus. The UK is near the bottom of the league with Italy, Spain and the US.
Yes, I see a considerable discrepancy. That's why I think there will be a considerable discrepancy between the timelines for a way out of the current situation.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Gone backwards in a month.
I know for the umpteenth time you think (erroneously yet again) that you've got your magic SNP killing silver bullet, but you might as well use the correct numbers or folk might think you're talking through your arse on a subject you know nothing about..
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
They're not posting out any are they?
Union doesn't believe the Scottish governments own figures of 2,063.
It was in today's briefing which you presumably don't watch for Hunnish patriotic reasons.
The Scottish govt released the tweets - not my problem if they have 2 sets of books.
Those aren't Scottish Government tweets. They are from Holyrood current affairs magazine. That does make a difference to your conclision.
TUD quoted the Holyrood Mag - TGHOF666 the Scottish government’s tweets. Which is reliable?
Hmm, I checked. TUD did indeed quote the mag, which is fair enough, but in his posting at 5:48 TGoHF666 clearly ascribed the "tweets" to the Scottish Gmt - no other tweets present to be the ones he meant?
The tweets are obviously reporting the FM's press conference, if you look at the whole thread, but that is not the same thing as official SG tweets.
So which ones are accurate? The Scottish govt, or the Holyrood Mag report?
I can't reply to that as the SG tweets to which Mr ex-Flashman refers are apparently nonexistent
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Gone backwards in a month.
I know for the umpteenth time you think (erroneously yet again) that you've got your magic SNP killing silver bullet, but you might as well use the correct numbers or folk might think you're talking through your arse on a subject you know nothing about..
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
They're not posting out any are they?
Union doesn't believe the Scottish governments own figures of 2,063.
It was in today's briefing which you presumably don't watch for Hunnish patriotic reasons.
The Scottish govt released the tweets - not my problem if they have 2 sets of books.
Those aren't Scottish Government tweets. They are from Holyrood current affairs magazine. That does make a difference to your conclision.
TUD quoted the Holyrood Mag - TGHOF666 the Scottish government’s tweets. Which is reliable?
Hmm, I checked. TUD did indeed quote the mag, which is fair enough, but in his posting at 5:48 TGoHF666 clearly ascribed the "tweets" to the Scottish Gmt - no other tweets present to be the ones he meant?
The tweets are obviously reporting the FM's press conference, if you look at the whole thread, but that is not the same thing as official SG tweets.
So which ones are accurate? The Scottish govt, or the Holyrood Mag report?
I can't reply to that as the SG tweets to which Mr ex-Flashman refers are apparently nonexistent
The notion of mass testing and tracking outbreaks looks a feasible response and signs from Germany suggest a premature easing might cause problems.
I don't think the signs from Germany do suggest that. I am prepared to be corrected on the latest figures, but I haven't yet seen any figures that say that the German R0 rate is estimated to have gone back above 1. As of yesterday the 7 day case average was still trending strongly down.
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
The crucial parameter when deciding whether or not to ease the restrictions should be the R0 factor. It needs to be so far below 1 that the uptick from easing restrictions doesn't catapult you back into exponential growth territory.
The most interesting soundbite from Mr Johnson's comeback presser was his estimate that the UK's R0 was "between 0.6 and 0.9". Over the last week the UK has reported almost 40k new cases.
The RKI has verbally communicated (but not yet officially published) R0 moving between 0.75 and 1.0. Reported new infections ca. 10k.
Something doesn't add up there.
It's quite likely that if the UK had tested 100,000 people per day at the start of April we would have had 40k positive results. That's the difference, the UK is starting from a high base, much higher than Germany because our horrible and late start. Germany shut down public events in a much more timely manner and generally took the situation seriously. The UK government allowed Cheltenham to go ahead and football matches. That's the disaster we're currently paying for. On the scale Germany is second only to Korea in terms of the quality of response to the virus. The UK is near the bottom of the league with Italy, Spain and the US.
Certainly mistakes were made in the fog of war metaphor. All nations have done, apart perhaps Taiwan and South Korea.
What we really need though is a plan of what to do with that testing capacity.
Who will we test, and how often? Who will do the contact tracing? How will we prevent positive tests from spreading the virus?
Testing is a nessecary step in controlling the disease, but is not an end in itself.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
No, as tieing our currencies to the rest of Europe's means we cannot take the fiscal action we need, see Germany, Italy and Greece, the latter have to follow the former who run the Eurozone effectively
Black Wednesday had nothing to do with fiscal policy.
The problem starts on the way down of the virus not the way up. I'm expecting both Johnson/Tory and Sturgeon/SNP popularity to take a big hit as we start drawing closer to ending lockdown/winter second peak happening.
Yes, all things are transient, and never more so than high popularity ratings right now, with so much shit yet to come.
I wonder how the left-wing middle-class segment of the SNP that like Sturgeon for her sort of EU-leaning moralistic stance - minimum price on alcohol etc etc - that are designed to hit poorer people (in a somewhat patronising manner IMO) would like it if Corona brought these measures to bear on the middle classes rather than poorer people. For example, if she decided to send kids to school in the summer so they don't get their holidays or something. Measures that impact directly on them "for their own good."
I'd like it if these measures of control brought us to the end of the control freak era.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I think there's an argument a Eurozone based on Germany, the Low Countries and a few other northern European countries would be a very strong and stable currency.
France brings in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and some others - they could function outside the Eurozone quite happily and that might be for the best all round.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
No, as tieing our currencies to the rest of Europe's means we cannot take the fiscal action we need, see Germany, Italy and Greece, the latter have to follow the former who run the Eurozone effectively
Though the people of Greece and Italy actually rather like a currency that doesn't shrink in their pockets every day.
They just need to have governments who understand a stable currency has different properties.
If inflation was a way to grow an economy then Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be the sites of unimaginable wealth, and Germany and Switzerland impoverished backwaters.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
There is never enough firepower to buck the market.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Unless the Bank of England funds 100% of it, there will need to be some price discovery.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
No, as tieing our currencies to the rest of Europe's means we cannot take the fiscal action we need, see Germany, Italy and Greece, the latter have to follow the former who run the Eurozone effectively
Though the people of Greece and Italy actually rather like a currency that doesn't shrink in their pockets every day.
They just need to have governments who understand a stable currency has different properties.
If inflation was a way to grow an economy then Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be the sites of unimaginable wealth, and Germany and Switzerland impoverished backwaters.
Its not a case of all or nothing.
A freely floating exchange rate acts as a natural stabiliser and shock absorber so that the currency reacts and takes spreading out much of the shock rather than the economy having to take on the entire burden.
Having shock absorbers like that doesn't make you Venezuela or Zimbabwe.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Basically everybody will have to rev up the printing machines to full throttle. Only time will answer your question. UK and EU are in a quite similar position.
Lol, at last some certitude in a disquieting world. The PB experts who year in year out have proved that they know feck all about Scottish politics still know feck all about Scottish politics.
The SNP up about 6 points snce the GE Labour down 3 the Conservatives the same. It 's that Starmer bounce again!
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Unless the Bank of England funds 100% of it, there will need to be some price discovery.
The Bank of England doesn't need to fund 100% of it, just not 0% will help wonders.
The Bank of England can do what we need it to do. The European nations lack the firepower we have with an independent Central Bank.
The notion of mass testing and tracking outbreaks looks a feasible response and signs from Germany suggest a premature easing might cause problems.
I don't think the signs from Germany do suggest that. I am prepared to be corrected on the latest figures, but I haven't yet seen any figures that say that the German R0 rate is estimated to have gone back above 1. As of yesterday the 7 day case average was still trending strongly down.
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
The crucial parameter when deciding whether or not to ease the restrictions should be the R0 factor. It needs to be so far below 1 that the uptick from easing restrictions doesn't catapult you back into exponential growth territory.
The most interesting soundbite from Mr Johnson's comeback presser was his estimate that the UK's R0 was "between 0.6 and 0.9". Over the last week the UK has reported almost 40k new cases.
The RKI has verbally communicated (but not yet officially published) R0 moving between 0.75 and 1.0. Reported new infections ca. 10k.
Something doesn't add up there.
It's quite likely that if the UK had tested 100,000 people per day at the start of April we would have had 40k positive results. That's the difference, the UK is starting from a high base, much higher than Germany because our horrible and late start. Germany shut down public events in a much more timely manner and generally took the situation seriously. The UK government allowed Cheltenham to go ahead and football matches. That's the disaster we're currently paying for. On the scale Germany is second only to Korea in terms of the quality of response to the virus. The UK is near the bottom of the league with Italy, Spain and the US.
Certainly mistakes were made in the fog of war metaphor. All nations have done, apart perhaps Taiwan and South Korea.
What we really need though is a plan of what to do with that testing capacity.
Who will we test, and how often? Who will do the contact tracing? How will we prevent positive tests from spreading the virus?
Testing is a nessecary step in controlling the disease, but is not an end in itself.
I refer you to yesterday's post, testing can form the major part of a funnel strategy to test, track, trace and separate. You can skip the middle two steps until we figure out how and still have a huge effect on bring down the R to well below where it is now by removing virus carrying people from the general population until they have recovered and are no longer infectious. If we were following steps 1 and 4 we could potentially prevent today's 6k positive results from causing another 10k infections assuming an R of 0.7 currently.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
He didn't say it so far tonight, but give it a few Rioja filled hours in boring Primrose Hill.
The predictions of EU dissolution have been going on for at least as long as the predictions of the SNP being kicked out of the honeymoon suite.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Basically everybody will have to rev up the printing machines to full throttle. Only time will answer your question. UK and EU are in a quite similar position.
The UK printing press is the Bank of England.
Where is the French printing press? Where is the Italian printing press? Where is the Spanish printing press? Where is the Dutch printing press? Where is the German printing press?
Do the Dutch and Germans need the same printing as Italy and Spain?
No, as tieing our currencies to the rest of Europe's means we cannot take the fiscal action we need, see Germany, Italy and Greece, the latter have to follow the former who run the Eurozone effectively
Indeed - Greece could have left the Euro and brought back the Drachma. It wouldn't have been nice and I still wonder if the Greek Government (of whatever stripe) would have taken the measures necessary to deal with the deep structural problems in the Greek economy but the tourist trade would have boomed as the currency devalued.
I'm less clear what it would have meant to the debt situation.
Had the Euro been restricted to Germany, Austria, Holland and Sweden it would have made sense, been a huge success and would now be regarded as one of the world's strongest and most stable currencies.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
No, as tieing our currencies to the rest of Europe's means we cannot take the fiscal action we need, see Germany, Italy and Greece, the latter have to follow the former who run the Eurozone effectively
Though the people of Greece and Italy actually rather like a currency that doesn't shrink in their pockets every day.
They just need to have governments who understand a stable currency has different properties.
If inflation was a way to grow an economy then Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be the sites of unimaginable wealth, and Germany and Switzerland impoverished backwaters.
Its not a case of all or nothing.
A freely floating exchange rate acts as a natural stabiliser and shock absorber so that the currency reacts and takes spreading out much of the shock rather than the economy having to take on the entire burden.
Having shock absorbers like that doesn't make you Venezuela or Zimbabwe.
can you give some examples of countries that have inflated themselves to riches by debasing their currency?
Indeed Mrs Thatcher was very keen (perhaps too keen) on squeezing inflation out of the economy, as a foundation for growth.
Inflation is like an alcoholic having an eye opener to cure his hangover. A temporary relief, followed by increased misery. Currency debasement is addictive, it does not create the conditions for sustainable growth, it postpones them.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
It's going to be a volatile period and that narrative isn't set in stone. Imagine if we get a Black Wednesday-style Sterling crisis, and it turns out that the Eurozone is actually a safe harbour.
We got a Black Wednesday crisis as we were in the ERM
Because the government was trying to buck the market without enough firepower.
No, as tieing our currencies to the rest of Europe's means we cannot take the fiscal action we need, see Germany, Italy and Greece, the latter have to follow the former who run the Eurozone effectively
Though the people of Greece and Italy actually rather like a currency that doesn't shrink in their pockets every day.
They just need to have governments who understand a stable currency has different properties.
If inflation was a way to grow an economy then Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be the sites of unimaginable wealth, and Germany and Switzerland impoverished backwaters.
Its not a case of all or nothing.
A freely floating exchange rate acts as a natural stabiliser and shock absorber so that the currency reacts and takes spreading out much of the shock rather than the economy having to take on the entire burden.
Having shock absorbers like that doesn't make you Venezuela or Zimbabwe.
A free floating exchange rate acts as an absorver of temporary effects of one-off events. It doesn't usually work against structural, systemic issues, as the examples show.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Basically everybody will have to rev up the printing machines to full throttle. Only time will answer your question. UK and EU are in a quite similar position.
Not really, Italy still pays interest to the ECB, the ECB then pays it's shareholders on an ownership basis. They don't get all of their own interest back in the same way the treasury do from the BoE.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
He didn't say it so far tonight, but give it a few Rioja filled hours in boring Primrose Hill.
The predictions of EU dissolution have been going on for at least as long as the predictions of the SNP being kicked out of the honeymoon suite.
The EU isn't going to dissolve, its just going to be a backwards warped union with impoverished elements because they are not the same and one answer doesn't work for all.
You of all people should be able to understand that logic.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Basically everybody will have to rev up the printing machines to full throttle. Only time will answer your question. UK and EU are in a quite similar position.
The UK printing press is the Bank of England.
Where is the French printing press? Where is the Italian printing press? Where is the Spanish printing press? Where is the Dutch printing press? Where is the German printing press?
Do the Dutch and Germans need the same printing as Italy and Spain?
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Unless the Bank of England funds 100% of it, there will need to be some price discovery.
The Bank of England doesn't need to fund 100% of it, just not 0% will help wonders.
The Bank of England can do what we need it to do. The European nations lack the firepower we have with an independent Central Bank.
The ECB has bigger bazookas than the Bank of England.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Basically everybody will have to rev up the printing machines to full throttle. Only time will answer your question. UK and EU are in a quite similar position.
The UK printing press is the Bank of England.
Where is the French printing press? Where is the Italian printing press? Where is the Spanish printing press? Where is the Dutch printing press? Where is the German printing press?
Do the Dutch and Germans need the same printing as Italy and Spain?
It's in Frankfurt am Main.
Which one is?
The Spanish one or the Dutch one? The German one or the Italian one?
Do the Dutch and Germans have the same requirements as the Italians and Spanish?
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Basically everybody will have to rev up the printing machines to full throttle. Only time will answer your question. UK and EU are in a quite similar position.
The UK printing press is the Bank of England.
Where is the French printing press? Where is the Italian printing press? Where is the Spanish printing press? Where is the Dutch printing press? Where is the German printing press?
Do the Dutch and Germans need the same printing as Italy and Spain?
No, it's the debt servicing cost that's the issue, our monetised debt doesn't matter because we pay ourselves the interest. Italy's monetised debt does matter because they don't pay themselves all of the interest.
I don't know about anyone else, but I can't think of any better way to celebrate when we finally stagger, exhausted, miserable and quite possibly bankrupt, to the end of the Covid Ultramarathon than to hold another constitutional referendum followed by another immensely complex divorce process lasting until the late 2020s. It'll be so much fun.
The fact that it's pound for pound probably the stupidest SLab (ex) pol putting it out there is possibly less comforting.
At some point (presumably as late as possible) Sturgeon is going to have to level with her activists and supporters, and admit that indy is off the table for the foreseeable future.
In a world struggling through a Great Depression, and with countries running 10% deficits (what will Scotland's be, 20%?!) no nation could take the insane leap in the dark that is independence - especially without a currency or a central bank. Immediate bankruptcy would ensue.
Sturgeon knows this, smarter Nats know it, but her party will hate it.
That's when the impressive SNP hegemony might finally fall apart.
Maybe correct, but maybe not. The CV damage provides HMG with a convenient carpet to sweep the Brexit damage underneath. But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Yes, a possibility. I considered it. But unlikely.
The difference is that Brexit has been voted for, and passed and is now a legal reality. The last push over the line just happens to coincide with corona, which helps Hard Brexiteers.
To reach indy the Scottish government has to win the next election (v probable, of course) call a new referendum and then win the following three-six month long campaign, when all these problems will be vigorously aired.
I can't see a route to victory. Voters will recoil from the extra chaos.
There is a further complication for Nats: the state of the EU (the presumed destination for indyScot). The EU is going to be in turmoil for half a decade now. Riven with debt and distrust. It won't look half so inviting.
Sturgeon must know all this, so her tricky job is to keep the Nats in power without ever reaching for her stated goal.
So you think the state of the UK will be more inviting, not in turmoil, not debt ridden, no distrust?
Er, yeah. Clearly.
You do understand what is about to hit the EU, don't you, Matthias?
Doom, I tell ya, doom. Italy might leave, Poland and Hungary, too. And then the EU will crumble, surely.
Hungary is actually quite possible, once Eastern Europe realises that the good times are over, and no more money is coming from Brussels.
Yes, of course. Poland and Italy, too. But will that mean the end of the EU? I don't think so.
I never said it would be, did I?
It sounded a bit like that. So what is "going to hit the EU"? Rising debt and an amount of turmoil? Yes, but that's true for the whole world, isn't it?
Our debt will be illusory as I explained earlier today. Is it really debt if you pay no interest?
Unless the Bank of England funds 100% of it, there will need to be some price discovery.
The Bank of England doesn't need to fund 100% of it, just not 0% will help wonders.
The Bank of England can do what we need it to do. The European nations lack the firepower we have with an independent Central Bank.
The ECB has bigger bazookas than the Bank of England.
That's the problem. It has bigger and diverse problems and lower granularity.
We don't need a bigger problem, we need an ability to solve our problems as we require. If I'm unwell I want a surgeon using a scalpel not a bazooka while treating me.
Lol, at last some certitude in a disquieting world. The PB experts who year in year out have proved that they know feck all about Scottish politics still know feck all about Scottish politics.
The SNP up about 6 points snce the GE Labour down 3 the Conservatives the same. It 's that Starmer bounce again!
Comments
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1256291893077520384?s=20
But isn't the same true for Scindy? Quite a lot of the secession damage could be swept under the exact same carpet, couldn't it?
Nonetheless, Merkel has every reason to preach caution because the last thing her government wants is for the Germans to start to drop social distancing out of complacency. So we do need to take her warnings with a pinch of salt, and see them at least in part as efforts to harden the resolve of the German people.
Our Government is meanwhile citing the situation in Germany as a reason why we can't yet ease the lockdown here. That's a convenient crutch for them, so they're content to latch on to Merkel's warnings verbatim as an excuse for the status quo. I think the real reason why they feel (correctly) that they can't yet ease the lockdown here is because our numbers are still several times the magnitude of those in Germany and won't get down to their levels for some weeks yet. The volumes involved mean that they cant expect tracing to be fully effective when starting from such a high base.
Obviously it would be embarrasing to admit that we're so far out of line still, and that that's the reason why we just have to watch enviously as other countries take tentative steps back to normality.
Its like being an successful international diamond robber and then deciding to knock off the corner shop in your lunchtime.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/1304119/analysis-nicola-sturgeon-and-boris-johnson-part-ways-at-the-peak/?utm_source=twitter
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8276715/Nobel-Prize-winning-biologist-blasts-Matt-Hancocks-100-000-daily-Covid-tests-target-PR-stunt.html
It might come as news to the Daily Mail, but testing people multiple times in a day is a good thing....and they have been doing this since very early on.
The one in the tweet was from 2/4/20.
The most interesting soundbite from Mr Johnson's comeback presser was his estimate that the UK's R0 was "between 0.6 and 0.9". Over the last week the UK has reported almost 40k new cases.
The RKI has verbally communicated (but not yet officially published) R0 moving between 0.75 and 1.0. Reported new infections ca. 10k.
Something doesn't add up there.
Back at the turn of the century, a pretty darn famous manager used to love putting his own team in his Saturday acca with the firm I worked for.
But minister, leaked documents revealed that the estimated casualties for this operation was 2500. Can you please apologize to the families for getting these people killed.
Hancock - Our goal is to first liberate the beaches of Northern France by the end of the month.
Piers Morgan - What a waste of space, we should be liberating the whole of France immediately. Why haven't we done this faster.
------
Hancock - We have captured all the beaches.
Piers Morgan - You said we would capture the beaches by the 30th, we have only captured 4/5th of them.
Hancock - We are just finishing off the last pocket of resistance of the 5th beach.
Piers Morgan - Yes but minister you have failed haven't you, miserable, piss poor effort, what as waste of space. How many people have you killed pursuing this stupid aspiration. We should have liberated from the South first.
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/e5e599-government-publishes-roadmap-to-ease-covid-19-restrictions-and-reope/
That was decided by a Conservative Government led by Margaret Thatcher.
https://davidallengreen.com/2020/05/when-virgin-care-sued-the-nhs-and-how-virgin-have-since-misdirected-and-misrepresented-about-what-happened/
I'm not a mind reader and don't in any case wish to delve into the darker recesses of Mr ex-Flashman's brain.
https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1256303061322129408?s=20
Also
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1256302353394864129?s=20
Which is quite different.
It is like the outrage over government cuts, every single thing was "back to Wigan Pier", people switched off, so when they did cut back things that probably weren't a good idea, nobody was listening.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-boss-waheed-saleem-was-in-group-that-treated-charity-as-labour-party-club-wftbdmcvk
Same problem that has repeatedly hit the Eurozone since then.
https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1256302353394864129?s=20
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1256302834578001921?s=20
What we really need though is a plan of what to do with that testing capacity.
Who will we test, and how often? Who will do the contact tracing? How will we prevent positive tests from spreading the virus?
Testing is a nessecary step in controlling the disease, but is not an end in itself.
I wonder how the left-wing middle-class segment of the SNP that like Sturgeon for her sort of EU-leaning moralistic stance - minimum price on alcohol etc etc - that are designed to hit poorer people (in a somewhat patronising manner IMO) would like it if Corona brought these measures to bear on the middle classes rather than poorer people. For example, if she decided to send kids to school in the summer so they don't get their holidays or something. Measures that impact directly on them "for their own good."
I'd like it if these measures of control brought us to the end of the control freak era.
France brings in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and some others - they could function outside the Eurozone quite happily and that might be for the best all round.
They just need to have governments who understand a stable currency has different properties.
If inflation was a way to grow an economy then Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be the sites of unimaginable wealth, and Germany and Switzerland impoverished backwaters.
A freely floating exchange rate acts as a natural stabiliser and shock absorber so that the currency reacts and takes spreading out much of the shock rather than the economy having to take on the entire burden.
Having shock absorbers like that doesn't make you Venezuela or Zimbabwe.
Only time will answer your question. UK and EU are in a quite similar position.
The Bank of England can do what we need it to do. The European nations lack the firepower we have with an independent Central Bank.
The predictions of EU dissolution have been going on for at least as long as the predictions of the SNP being kicked out of the honeymoon suite.
Where is the French printing press?
Where is the Italian printing press?
Where is the Spanish printing press?
Where is the Dutch printing press?
Where is the German printing press?
Do the Dutch and Germans need the same printing as Italy and Spain?
I'm less clear what it would have meant to the debt situation.
Had the Euro been restricted to Germany, Austria, Holland and Sweden it would have made sense, been a huge success and would now be regarded as one of the world's strongest and most stable currencies.
Indeed Mrs Thatcher was very keen (perhaps too keen) on squeezing inflation out of the economy, as a foundation for growth.
Inflation is like an alcoholic having an eye opener to cure his hangover. A temporary relief, followed by increased misery. Currency debasement is addictive, it does not create the conditions for sustainable growth, it postpones them.
You of all people should be able to understand that logic.
The Spanish one or the Dutch one?
The German one or the Italian one?
Do the Dutch and Germans have the same requirements as the Italians and Spanish?
We don't need a bigger problem, we need an ability to solve our problems as we require. If I'm unwell I want a surgeon using a scalpel not a bazooka while treating me.
Covid Data Wrangler alert.
https://twitter.com/ansgarjohn/status/1255621706196103168?s=20
That's his pinned tweet btw.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0501/1136167-road-map-details/
Flying Colours?