Does anyone know of a graph of daily deaths by region of those with COVID? We keep seeing the hospitalisations graph in the daily presser but I can't recall seeing this. We see London markedly falling but not much elsewhere, so I was wondering if this is just hospitalisations or if deaths are now also equally spread across the country.
I should have read the thread, I see someone had already posted it. Mea culpa.
So now my area is second in the country below the Midlands. From what I'm seeing out on the streets that figures.
Yes kinabalu I agree, one must consider primary concerns like the stage of the economic cycle, the size of the deficit as well as secondary concerns like the size of the debt to get a big picture view.
Do you agree with that?
- bang!
And yes, of course, no probs reciprocating.
The debt, the deficit, where one thinks one is in the economic cycle, these are all key to assessing the state of the public finances.
Debt is "secondary"? Hmm. Not for me. Or rather not necessarily. It really does depend. For example, if yields shoot up the amount of debt you're carrying and its maturity profile can be rather important.
But that's a mere quibble. We have nailed it. Not only that, I think our lengthy exchange on this most arcane of topics has benefited the whole board.
Absolutely yields matter though its worth remembering most bonds have a long maturity of 10 to 30 to 50 years. Even if yields change up or down it takes a long time for that to filter through to all bonds. That is why the deficit matters more again because the deficit must be borrowed now and not just a fraction of it now like bond renewals.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Tbh, BJ, this is all nitpicking now. The government has surpassed it and you're better off recognising it as a job well done (though 4 weeks late) than nitpicking at a nothing problem.
Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.
According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.
Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.
We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.
Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
Its the whole population, not the kids.
That is what I was getting at. If the rise in R is due to the schools reopening and sending R-child rocketing then do we care? Is R-adult rising or are we being misled by unhelpful averaging?
We care any which way, if it is the little germ spreaders or the parents picking them up, or it could be some other relaxed measure. It is important to find it what exactly is driving it.
Schools increase use of transport of all types, they increase movement of the general population on the streets, they increase mixing between families and they increase mixing within a family. That adds up.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
What kind of a person doesn't learn from their mistakes?
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
It didn't matter if the target was met today or next week either way it would have been a victory.
The fact the target was met today though when people saying they weren't just makes it all the more impressive.
It doesn't matter if we win a football match 1-0 or 8-0 it is a win either way but this is an 8-0 victory for the country. Well done everyone.
The real story behind the pivot behind testing is going to be fascinating. I think a lot of Sir Humphrey's have spent the last month saying not possible.
Will heavy rain have any effect on covid.. keep people indoors?
I presume it is preferable to days of sunshine which tempt people to bend the rules.
Definitely fewer people on my my late night walks when it's been raining. I love walking out in the rain (or, even better, snow) but, looking out during the day, it's clear that the daily exercisers aren't of the same mind.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
For all Hancock's dodgy counting, that's a far more serious failure, Scotland won't be catching loads of cases. Perhaps it is time for border controls after all.
“I think there’s a perception out that Sweden has not put in control measures and just has allowed the disease to spread,” Ryan told reporters. “Nothing can be further from the truth.”
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
The real story behind the pivot behind testing is going to be fascinating. I think a lot of Sir Humphrey's have spent the last month saying not possible.
It's also noticeable how many private sector companies were thanked. I'm sure there are plenty at PHE who are spitting with rage over this level of involvement, they'd rather not be able to test than have the private sector show them up.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Even if some jiggery-pokery, as long as we continue to see high numbers being done, Hancock is fine. If it 100k today, then back down to 50k a day, then there will be some questions being asked.
Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.
According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.
Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.
We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.
Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
Its the whole population, not the kids.
That is what I was getting at. If the rise in R is due to the schools reopening and sending R-child rocketing then do we care? Is R-adult rising or are we being misled by unhelpful averaging?
R is the average number of people that an infected person infects, so what you call R-Child being high, means that children are infecting lots of people, and most people are not adults. It would be no better than a high R-adult.
The real story behind the pivot behind testing is going to be fascinating. I think a lot of Sir Humphrey's have spent the last month saying not possible.
It's also noticeable how many private sector companies were thanked. I'm sure there are plenty at PHE who are spitting with rage over this level of involvement, they'd rather not be able to test than have the private sector show them up.
But the Guardian were briefed that these private companies were shit....no idea who briefed them.
Even if some jiggery-pokery, as long as we continue to see high numbers being done, Hancock is fine. If it 100k today, then back down to 50k a day, then there will be some questions being asked.
I assume they aren't going to reduce the number of tests being sent out, so it would be surprising for it to slump.
Even if you deduct the dodgy home test kit accounting, the England numbers are miles and miles ahead of Scotland and Wales. Scotland and Wales look like the control groups for test numbers that England would have been stuck with without Hancock's target.
Even if some jiggery-pokery, as long as we continue to see high numbers being done, Hancock is fine. If it 100k today, then back down to 50k a day, then there will be some questions being asked.
Agreed, though noteworthy that it was 80k yesterday so that's already 200k over past 2 days.
Does anyone know of a graph of daily deaths by region of those with COVID? We keep seeing the hospitalisations graph in the daily presser but I can't recall seeing this. We see London markedly falling but not much elsewhere, so I was wondering if this is just hospitalisations or if deaths are now also equally spread across the country.
Is this the sort of thing you are looking for?
The HSJ does a good daily update breaking down by region
Even if some jiggery-pokery, as long as we continue to see high numbers being done, Hancock is fine. If it 100k today, then back down to 50k a day, then there will be some questions being asked.
I assume they aren't going to reduce the number of tests being sent out, so it would be surprising for it to slump.
Depends if there are enough requests though doesn't it?
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
The whinge that the government have 'changed' the way they count the tests is garbage. They didn't send out test kits at all previously, so there's no change in the counting method, just an additional category of tests, which is what we all wanted, right?
This has been the most blatant case of opponents of the government obsessing to find something they can blame them for that I've ever seen. And that's from a very large sample.
The important thing is that the government have done what they said they were trying to do - increase testing capacity dramatically - and with remarkable efficiency. Hats off not so much to the government, more to the civil servants who actually did the logistical and planning work. Kudos to them. They get lots of brickbats but rarely get praise when it goes well.
Just checked on the ONS data and found that my township (approx. 8000 people) has had 9 deaths which is quite high compared to other villages and neighbourhoods. But we do have 5 care homes and I am assuming that when they die in hospital they are recorded as coming from their home address(is that right Foxy?)
Oh dear that's a real local hotspot as you say. No COVID deaths in my ONS neighbourhood, despite being in the town, but I think all the most local care homes are in next door neighbourhoods.
I am not sure if the data includes all community deaths, and ends on April 17 which is a bit before the main care home outbreaks.
Scotland and Wales still rising by hospitalisations, but falling throughout England
What is going on in the devolved nations?
We are further down the curve. What it actually shows is that the theory an earlier lockdown in England would have stopped the spread of the virus is, well, mince.
Even if some jiggery-pokery, as long as we continue to see high numbers being done, Hancock is fine. If it 100k today, then back down to 50k a day, then there will be some questions being asked.
I assume they aren't going to reduce the number of tests being sent out, so it would be surprising for it to slump.
Depends if there are enough requests though doesn't it?
It just has to stay high until contact tracing resumes and tests of frontline workers are further expanded.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
For all Hancock's dodgy counting, that's a far more serious failure, Scotland won't be catching loads of cases. Perhaps it is time for border controls after all.
Completely different approach, targetuing them as opposed to just posting to anyone and his hamster in a tearing panic tractor production style. Also, simply sending out tests at random doesn't in itself help understand the outbreak.
The actual figure seems to be 49K cumulative tests total on last Sunday - another 7.3K this week if my mental arithmetic is correct, and you need to add the tests done in the "UK" stations in Scotland, for which I don't have data (indeed not sure if they are included in those figures). The pervcent of positive cases is also going down.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Why not?
10,000 tests a day would be correct for Scotland's population. 2000 is horrendous failure no matter how you cut it.
Active cases: 100943 including 1578 (-116) in ICU and 1965 new cases Deaths: +269 (28236) Healed/discharged: +2304 (78249) Tests: +74208 (2053425)
It's the continued tracking down of the ICU number that's really encouraging to me. That has basically dropped at 50-100 a day for the last month. And I think the ICU number is a great "backward looking" indicator of where the disease is.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Gone backwards in a month.
I know for the umpteenth time you think (erroneously yet again) that you've got your magic SNP killing silver bullet, but you might as well use the correct numbers or folk might think you're talking through your arse on a subject you know nothing about..
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Why not?
At a random guess - not enough lab capability to process tests.
As why that is - no push to increase the lab capacity....
Does anyone know of a graph of daily deaths by region of those with COVID? We keep seeing the hospitalisations graph in the daily presser but I can't recall seeing this. We see London markedly falling but not much elsewhere, so I was wondering if this is just hospitalisations or if deaths are now also equally spread across the country.
Is this the sort of thing you are looking for?
The HSJ does a good daily update breaking down by region
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
For all Hancock's dodgy counting, that's a far more serious failure, Scotland won't be catching loads of cases. Perhaps it is time for border controls after all.
Completely different approach, targetuing them as opposed to just posting to anyone and his hamster in a tearing panic tractor production style. Also, simply sending out tests at random doesn't in itself help understand the outbreak.
The actual figure seems to be 49K cumulative tests total on last Sunday - another 7.3K this week if my mental arithmetic is correct, and you need to add the tests done in the "UK" stations in Scotland, for which I don't have data (indeed not sure if they are included in those figures). The pervcent of positive cases is also going down.
14% daily positive tests seems too high, especially five weeks into lockdown, the target should surely to be to get the positive percentage back below 5% which is where it was before the epidemic started to get out of hand.
The whinge that the government have 'changed' the way they count the tests is garbage. They didn't send out test kits at all previously, so there's no change in the counting method, just an additional category of tests, which is what we all wanted, right?
This has been the most blatant case of opponents of the government obsessing to find something they can blame them for that I've ever seen. And that's from a very large sample.
Look at Southam on here. So desperate to fault the government he's been ranting on about the HSJ bollocks, when Hancock beat his target so easily it really doesn't matter how they count them.
In a generally gloomy and depressing situation, this is proper good news: about the government doing well. It should be seen as such; enough of the carping.
Please point me to this whinging. They found a way to hit the target they set for themselves. The world will keep on turning.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Why not?
10,000 tests a day would be correct for Scotland's population. 2000 is horrendous failure no matter how you cut it.
Indeed, I was saying so this morning. Questions need to be asked, and as before I'm not making a political point, mass testing is the route out of lockdown. Each day England now has the capacity to test enough people to pursue quite a few ways out of lockdown, it's no use if Scotland hasn't. I'm all for PHE opening up English testing capacity to Scotland, send some of those tests out to Scottish NHS staff and other front line workers who need them and process them in one of the pillar 2 labs. Tbh, I'd be making that offer in public if I were in Hancock's position if the testing situation hasn't improved in Scotland in a few days.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Its 300 fewer tests than were performed on 5th April in Scotland.
Gone backwards in a month.
I know for the umpteenth time you think (erroneously yet again) that you've got your magic SNP killing silver bullet, but you might as well use the correct numbers or folk might think you're talking through your arse on a subject you know nothing about..
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
For all Hancock's dodgy counting, that's a far more serious failure, Scotland won't be catching loads of cases. Perhaps it is time for border controls after all.
Completely different approach, targetuing them as opposed to just posting to anyone and his hamster in a tearing panic tractor production style. Also, simply sending out tests at random doesn't in itself help understand the outbreak.
The actual figure seems to be 49K cumulative tests total on last Sunday - another 7.3K this week if my mental arithmetic is correct, and you need to add the tests done in the "UK" stations in Scotland, for which I don't have data (indeed not sure if they are included in those figures). The pervcent of positive cases is also going down.
14% daily positive tests seems too high, especially five weeks into lockdown, the target should surely to be to get the positive percentage back below 5% which is where it was before the epidemic started to get out of hand.
I wouldn't disagree. I do however now realise that definitely doesn't include people tested in the drive in sites - for which TUD has now found the totals being tested. I imagine they are rather better (being able to drive, and all that).
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Active cases: 100943 including 1578 (-116) in ICU and 1965 new cases Deaths: +269 (28236) Healed/discharged: +2304 (78249) Tests: +74208 (2053425)
It's the continued tracking down of the ICU number that's really encouraging to me. That has basically dropped at 50-100 a day for the last month. And I think the ICU number is a great "backward looking" indicator of where the disease is.
Agreed - also encouraging in the UK on that regard - in Scotland the numbers fell from >200 to 110 by today. I assume this is replicated elsewhere across the country.
I gather from @bigjohnowls on PT that the way tests are counted was changed to hit the target?
Does it matter? It's just nitpicking now.
Hmm, not so sure. I gather in the language of the original target - number of people tested - it's 70k not 100k. If so, they should have stuck to that. 70k is a big number and the direction of travel looks good. By frigging it to get the cheap headline they look a bit devious. Risk is erosion of public trust. But OK, not the most ginormous of issues, I'll give you that.
I see the 'it's not important if the target isn't met today' lads have miraculously pivoted to 'what a victory for Matt Clem Fitzgerald Hilda Hancock!!!'
Just 2000 tests in Scotland - WTF is the SNP up to ?
Well they're not posting out 50k tests, that's for sure.
Why not?
10,000 tests a day would be correct for Scotland's population. 2000 is horrendous failure no matter how you cut it.
Indeed, I was saying so this morning. Questions need to be asked, and as before I'm not making a political point, mass testing is the route out of lockdown. Each day England now has the capacity to test enough people to pursue quite a few ways out of lockdown, it's no use if Scotland hasn't. I'm all for PHE opening up English testing capacity to Scotland, send some of those tests out to Scottish NHS staff and other front line workers who need them and process them in one of the pillar 2 labs. Tbh, I'd be making that offer in public if I were in Hancock's position if the testing situation hasn't improved in Scotland in a few days.
Does anyone know of a graph of daily deaths by region of those with COVID? We keep seeing the hospitalisations graph in the daily presser but I can't recall seeing this. We see London markedly falling but not much elsewhere, so I was wondering if this is just hospitalisations or if deaths are now also equally spread across the country.
Is this the sort of thing you are looking for?
The HSJ does a good daily update breaking down by region
“I think there’s a perception out that Sweden has not put in control measures and just has allowed the disease to spread,” Ryan told reporters. “Nothing can be further from the truth.”
That does seem to be a common misunderstanding.
Everything’s open, just fewer people allowed in - probably where we will be in a month or two
So did Hancock make his target or not? Confusing. Smells like a bit of fudge here, but who care's if he just got over or under the line. Compared to where it was, it is a huge improvement. Let's hope it is sustained.
Either way, it's amazing how motivated politicians become when it's their reputation on the line.
Err, have you seen the pictures of the airport terminals? Virtually no-one is coming from high-risk areas, or anywhere much else for that matter, and if they do come they are immediately in lockdown the same as the rest of us. So it's really not an issue at the moment.
Comments
So now my area is second in the country below the Midlands. From what I'm seeing out on the streets that figures.
We asked how we could fix it.
Given they've gone comfortably beyond the 100,000 it may not even have been necessary....
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1246710511053475840
Time to bin labour's tired stop privatisation of our NHS.
Both working in harmony saves lives
The bit about said middle aged men getting lucky, not so much.
We all get it wrong on occasions
The fact the target was met today though when people saying they weren't just makes it all the more impressive.
It doesn't matter if we win a football match 1-0 or 8-0 it is a win either way but this is an 8-0 victory for the country. Well done everyone.
Your desire to see the NHS fail is especially galling as you take your massive NHS pension.....
Active cases: 100943
including 1578 (-116) in ICU
and 1965 new cases
Deaths: +269 (28236)
Healed/discharged: +2304 (78249)
Tests: +74208 (2053425)
Have the grace to accept it
- is the person armed with a weapon (any kind, not just assault)?
and
- are they black?
If the answer to both of these questions is "yes", then the weapon carrying is intimidating and the police will shoot the perpetrator.
He missed the target set by the @10downingstreet
Despite changing the rules to include non processed tests, including those not returned, including those not even received by the testee.
You have fallen for it unsurprisingly
Gone backwards in a month.
Scotland and Wales look like the control groups for test numbers that England would have been stuck with without Hancock's target.
I can do that too. But then what?
I imagine it might dip over the weekend.
The HSJ does a good daily update breaking down by region
https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-every-region-now-at-least-25-per-cent-below-peak/7027212.article
This has been the most blatant case of opponents of the government obsessing to find something they can blame them for that I've ever seen. And that's from a very large sample.
The important thing is that the government have done what they said they were trying to do - increase testing capacity dramatically - and with remarkable efficiency. Hats off not so much to the government, more to the civil servants who actually did the logistical and planning work. Kudos to them. They get lots of brickbats but rarely get praise when it goes well.
Its like you getting £1,000 from me.
Up to Tuesday you were only counting it when it was in your bank Account.
Now you are counting it because you have posted me an envelope for me to put the cheque in.
And in this deadly disease that is wrong
Lockdown
Lockdown
Lockdown
....
The actual figure seems to be 49K cumulative tests total on last Sunday - another 7.3K this week if my mental arithmetic is correct, and you need to add the tests done in the "UK" stations in Scotland, for which I don't have data (indeed not sure if they are included in those figures). The pervcent of positive cases is also going down.
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker
There were 2,537 tests carried out yesterday between hospitals, care homes and the community
There were also 2,124 test carried out at the regional drive-through testing centres yesterday
In total, there were 4,661 tests carried out across Scotland yesterday and 22,400 keyworkers or familiy members have now been tested
Laboratory capacity for coronavirus tests is now 4,350 tests per day, with testing in all 14 NHS areas
4,350 figure is just for NHS testing. If including Glasgow University lab and other drive through labs, total capacity is now 8,350 tests per day
As why that is - no push to increase the lab capacity....
Did he really mean that?
They need to be kept until we have passed whatever 2nd wave comes.
Up until Monday that meant they were counted once they were processed.
Then we decided to count posted out and not received back. Posted out but not yet received. And even requested a test.
You would be screaming if anyone else changed how to count them 3 days before a deadline to meet a self imposed target.
You are giving an impression that you are desperate for HMG to succeed for political reasons even if it has to move the goalposts to do so
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1256179319979814912?s=20
https://twitter.com/scotgov/status/1255844792950538240?s=20
56,702-54,639= 2,063
Unless the Scottish government has got its sums wrong again.
But Sam Coates does.
Everything’s open, just fewer people allowed in - probably where we will be in a month or two
Either way, it's amazing how motivated politicians become when it's their reputation on the line.