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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The armed, Trump-backed, lockdown protestors who are helping b

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The armed, Trump-backed, lockdown protestors who are helping build the profile of possible Biden VP pick, Gretchen Whitmer

The efforts to combat COVID-19 have divided America and overnight saw extraordinary scenes when hundreds of protesters, many of them armed, burst into Michigan’s state capitol to object to plans to extend the state of emergency in the state. The State’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, has incurred the wrath of Trump for not being appreciative enough of his efforts.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sounds like a good pick and a good tip.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    The US is so utterly f****d.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Pagan2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    You are making an assumption here that tax is all that incentivises people to forgo income.

    for example
    My job my take home pay is Y, for a shelf stacker it is X
    The extra money I get paid (Y-X) incentivises me to keep in my job and not quit and become a shelf stacker.

    However my job also involves unpaid overtime, stress, support rota's, longer commutes probably as most shelf stackers will live closer to work. If the value Y-X becomes small enough that I don't think the extra pay is worth all that extra angst I definitely go sod this I will go shelf stacking instead. Your progressive taxation lowers the value of Y-X as I will be paying a larger portion of tax than currently thus lowering the value of Y and possibly raising the value of X.

    No, it's the other way round. The proposal I described is designed to reduce the perverse incentive not to take the increased pay, which you get at the moment because of various tax band effects (and benefits as well). At no point in the system I'm describing would you be heavily penalised for earning extra pay.
    You miss my point entirely, I am not talking about not taking extra pay I am talking about the effect on take home pay differentials let me illustrate with some figures

    A earns 20k he pays currently 20% tax of 29pounds a week and takes home 332
    B earns 40k he pays currently 20% tax of 106pounds a week and takes home 529

    B considers that the extra 197£ a week is reasonable compensation for the unpaid overtime , the commute costs, the stress and the support rota

    under your system A now pays for example 5% and b pays 35%

    A now pays tax of 7£ a week and takes home 354£
    b now pays tax of 185$ a week and takes home 450£

    Now B is wondering if the 96 pounds extra is worth it for the unpaid overtime , the commute costs, the stress and the support rota
    No, your figure of 35% at £40K is far, far too high. I haven't done the full sums (and of course it could be calibrated at whatever rate the Chancellor wanted), but I'd guess it would probably be around 15% at that level.
    It's about 20% at the moment. Anyone who pays a net rate of 35% is earning six figures.
    Also the 35% corresponds to Richards new sliding scale scheme not net taxation where the percent tax you pay depends where you are on the scale between minium wage and 150k
    Don't forget NI and personal allowances which are fading in and out of this subthread. Currently someone on £50k pays 25 per cent according to:
    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/estimate-paye-take-home-pay/your-pay
    Yes, it's why I don't understand Richard's proposal. Our tax system works very much like he says it should already, just without having multiple rates.
    You haven't understood at all. The current system does have multiple rates, barmy ones: excluding NI, rates of 20%, 40%, 59.7% in the Child Benefit withdrawal region for parents, then 40% again up to £100K, then 60% as the personal allowances is tapered out, then 40% again, then 45% over £150K. It's made even more complicated by NI, and at the lower end by benefits withdrawals, and at the higher end potentially by the tapered annual allowance for pension contributions.

    Ii the proposal I mentioned there would be no sudden changes in marginal rates, let alone barmy ones as we currently have. Instead the marginal rate would start very low and smoothly increase up to a maximum value. So it is progressive, but without the distorting effects of irrationally high marginal rates at certain points in the curve.
    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Sounds like a good pick and a good tip.

    Provided Biden is still the nominee at that stage. I think he is 95%+ certain to be, but with the sexual assault allegations, there has to be a least a little bit of doubt there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    I have always said that a governor would be a good choice and she looks the best of the bunch for me. The lack of Democratic governors has been a real weakness for the party in the last couple of Presidential cycles and Michigan is a key state.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TimT said:

    Sounds like a good pick and a good tip.

    Provided Biden is still the nominee at that stage. I think he is 95%+ certain to be, but with the sexual assault allegations, there has to be a least a little bit of doubt there.
    Indeed. Given his potential dementia and age there has to be at least a little bit of doubt even without such allegations. Getting a name of a Veep out there should hopefully make them successor rather than Sanders if he does fall under a metaphorical bus.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.

    Yes, absolutely, dealing with that should certainly be part of the overall policy aim. These ludicrously high marginal rates are highly distorting.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The most extraordinary aspect of the Michigan story is that carrying arms into the capitol building is apparently perfectly legal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.

    Yes, absolutely, dealing with that should certainly be part of the overall policy aim. These ludicrously high marginal rates are highly distorting.
    It should be first priority. Its better than the past when Brown made it possible to effectively be on over 100% income tax but it is absolutely absurd that the highest effectively marginally taxed people in our society are some of the poorest.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.

    Yes, absolutely, dealing with that should certainly be part of the overall policy aim. These ludicrously high marginal rates are highly distorting.
    It should be first priority. Its better than the past when Brown made it possible to effectively be on over 100% income tax but it is absolutely absurd that the highest effectively marginally taxed people in our society are some of the poorest.
    Agreed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Frightening photos.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    The US is so utterly f****d.

    Obama v McCain was a decent choice. Obama v Romney likewise. But 2016 was abysmal and this looks worse.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited May 2020
    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.

    Yes, absolutely, dealing with that should certainly be part of the overall policy aim. These ludicrously high marginal rates are highly distorting.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the restrictions in that state get tighter after this. Intimidating the parliament is not a constructive approach.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Useful to know though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    The most extraordinary aspect of the Michigan story is that carrying arms into the capitol building is apparently perfectly legal.

    When I was in the US for a court case I was involved in I thought it was absolutely hilarious that there were no smoking type signs with guns in them and then a further reminder that lawyers should not take their guns into court. I think I showed my bumptiousness by taking photos.

    The country's love affair with guns is a really deep sickness.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    The downward slope for this thing is slow enough at the best of times. At R0.9 it is going to take forever.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    RobD said:

    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.

    Yes, absolutely, dealing with that should certainly be part of the overall policy aim. These ludicrously high marginal rates are highly distorting.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the restrictions in that state get tighter after this. Intimidating the parliament is not a constructive approach.
    I don't know Michigan well, but I do know that the Upper Peninsula is a very different beast than the urban areas. If by restrictions, you mean access to the Capitol building, probably. If you mean guns, well ...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.

    Yes, absolutely, dealing with that should certainly be part of the overall policy aim. These ludicrously high marginal rates are highly distorting.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the restrictions in that state get tighter after this. Intimidating the parliament is not a constructive approach.
    I don't know Michigan well, but I do know that the Upper Peninsula is a very different beast than the urban areas. If by restrictions, you mean access to the Capitol building, probably. If you mean guns, well ...
    You think intimidation by carrying automatic rifles right outside the door to their meeting place will have no influence on lawmaker's views on the right to carry such weapons in public?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
    I had assumed R referred to the whole population, not just the children.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
    Its the whole population, not the kids.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    From the last thread - since the peak (8th April), overall, I think we are seeing a fairly linear decrease. Looks like a decrease of 30 deaths per day (approx).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    DavidL said:

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    The downward slope for this thing is slow enough at the best of times. At R0.9 it is going to take forever.
    That depends on the starting point.

    A few cycles of R0.75 gives you a big drop which then allows R0.9 to maintain slow downward pressure while restrictions are eased.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    So todays big news is they have changed the way tests are counted in order to appear to hit Hancocks target. Whats the chance Peston @bbclaurak et al ask about it?

    Revealed: How government changed the rules to hit 100,000 tests target
    The government has changed the way it is counting the number of covid-19 tests carried out in a bid to hit its target of 100,000 tests per day by the end of April, HSJ can reveal.
    hsj.co.uk
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
    One striking feature I found about Maryland is that the rural areas are just as GOP leaning as say Indiana, it's simply the relative population of the DC burbs and Baltimore outweigh those areas very comfortably.
    Illinois is probably the most striking example of just how geographically urbanised a Dem heavy vote can be in a state.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    US germ warfare lab creates test for pre-infectious Covid-19 carriers

    The test has emerged from a project set up by the US military’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) aimed at rapid diagnosis of germ or chemical warfare poisoning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/us-germ-warfare-lab-creates-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
    And assault rifles?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Not surprised Denmark's and Germany's infection rates increase as lockdown is eased. One advantage these countries have over the UK is that with a lower level of infection they have more headroom to ease off before having to slam the brakes on again.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    RobD said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    If you're counting Child Benefit withdrawal as income tax then what about Universal Credit withdrawal? That takes income tax up over 70%.

    Yes, absolutely, dealing with that should certainly be part of the overall policy aim. These ludicrously high marginal rates are highly distorting.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the restrictions in that state get tighter after this. Intimidating the parliament is not a constructive approach.
    I don't know Michigan well, but I do know that the Upper Peninsula is a very different beast than the urban areas. If by restrictions, you mean access to the Capitol building, probably. If you mean guns, well ...
    You think intimidation by carrying automatic rifles right outside the door to their meeting place will have no influence on lawmaker's views on the right to carry such weapons in public?
    It might, but there'd be a backlash. (I don't own a gun, and am British, so also fail to understand much of the gun culture here).

    Clearly, in this instance, the gun carrying was meant to be intimidating and that should absolutely not be tolerated. But when is gun-carrying in public intimidating and when is it not? Most of us would say that you'd know it when you see it; the gun lobby would say that's the slippery slope.

    All I am saying is that, in rural regions, hunting is a major part of the way of life, and guns are seen as just natural. Most days I hear at least some of our neighbours doing shooting practice, and all of us have hunters on our properties. Seeing people shop at the supermarket in full camouflage is natural. If you seek to change what people see as a fundamental part of their way of life, then you must expect a backlash.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    From the last thread - since the peak (8th April), overall, I think we are seeing a fairly linear decrease. Looks like a decrease of 30 deaths per day (approx).
    If that continues, how many days before we reach close to no deaths, theoretically speaking? (I know it probably won't happen like that in reality).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
    And assault rifles?
    Personally, I see no reason for any member of the public to own an assault rifle.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited May 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    From the last thread - since the peak (8th April), overall, I think we are seeing a fairly linear decrease. Looks like a decrease of 30 deaths per day (approx).
    If that continues, how many days before we reach close to no deaths, theoretically speaking? (I know it probably won't happen like that in reality).
    If you're letting flights in from JFK ?

    Never.

    At constant R the linear rate will actually slow though so your last 30 death fall will take much longer than your first 30 death fall.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    From the last thread - since the peak (8th April), overall, I think we are seeing a fairly linear decrease. Looks like a decrease of 30 deaths per day (approx).
    If that continues, how many days before we reach close to no deaths, theoretically speaking? (I know it probably won't happen like that in reality).
    If you're letting flights in from JFK ?

    Never.
    Are we still doing that?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    He's a shaved Corbyn.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    US germ warfare lab creates test for pre-infectious Covid-19 carriers

    The test has emerged from a project set up by the US military’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) aimed at rapid diagnosis of germ or chemical warfare poisoning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/us-germ-warfare-lab-creates-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers

    Darpa again. More grist to the Cummings blog.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    I'm nicely green on Whitmer, should Biden see fit.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    The most extraordinary aspect of the Michigan story is that carrying arms into the capitol building is apparently perfectly legal.

    When I was in the US for a court case I was involved in I thought it was absolutely hilarious that there were no smoking type signs with guns in them and then a further reminder that lawyers should not take their guns into court. I think I showed my bumptiousness by taking photos.

    The country's love affair with guns is a really deep sickness.
    On the steps entrance to the house where Lincoln Died is a no smoking style sign saying No Guns.

    Superflous really I thought.

    A few doors down is an excellent diner called Lincoln's Waffle Shop.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    TGOHF666 said:

    He's a shaved Corbyn.
    Hardly he is more an old Bliar
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    For anyone who has PBS America on their TV, there is a programme coming up shortly on the 1918 flu epidemic, right after the last episode of The Vietnam War documentary.

    Fun times .....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    Still a material chance that he is not. The nominee, that is. That he is terrible is going nowhere.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    For anyone who has PBS America on their TV, there is a programme coming up shortly on the 1918 flu epidemic, right after the last episode of The Vietnam War documentary.

    Fun times .....

    Will never happen again though will it....Mrs U has some bat soup on the go at the moment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
    Its the whole population, not the kids.
    That is what I was getting at. If the rise in R is due to the schools reopening and sending R-child rocketing then do we care? Is R-adult rising or are we being misled by unhelpful averaging?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
    One striking feature I found about Maryland is that the rural areas are just as GOP leaning as say Indiana, it's simply the relative population of the DC burbs and Baltimore outweigh those areas very comfortably.
    Illinois is probably the most striking example of just how geographically urbanised a Dem heavy vote can be in a state.
    Washington State and Oregon likewise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
    Its the whole population, not the kids.
    That is what I was getting at. If the rise in R is due to the schools reopening and sending R-child rocketing then do we care? Is R-adult rising or are we being misled by unhelpful averaging?
    We care any which way, if it is the little germ spreaders or the parents picking them up, or it could be some other relaxed measure. It is important to find it what exactly is driving it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Analysis by Denmark's infectious diseases agency the State Serum Institute (SSI) found the so-called reproduction rate, known as 'R', rose since schools opened on April 15 as the virus lockdown was eased.

    According to the data, the 'R rate' increased from 0.6 in mid-April to 0.9 as of yesterday.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8278013/Denmarks-coronavirus-rate-infection-RISEN-0-6-0-9-schools-opened.html

    Germany's number of coronavirus infections have risen for the fifth day in a row and the government are now nervously observing the effects of easing the nationwide lockdown.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8277837/Germany-sees-number-infections-rise-fifth-day-row.html

    We are going to be stop / starting for the next 6 months.

    Do we care about R among Danish schoolchildren? Our early strategy almost encouraged the virus to spread through playgrounds.
    Its the whole population, not the kids.
    That is what I was getting at. If the rise in R is due to the schools reopening and sending R-child rocketing then do we care? Is R-adult rising or are we being misled by unhelpful averaging?
    It's based on hospital admissions, so it's highly unlikely it's the children that are responsible for this uptick, rather their parents who got it, and spread it to others.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    TGOHF666 said:

    He's a shaved Corbyn.
    Hardly he is more an old Bliar
    Re-tread Kinnock, surely?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_1988_presidential_campaign#Kinnock_controversy
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Will heavy rain have any effect on covid.. keep people indoors?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
    One striking feature I found about Maryland is that the rural areas are just as GOP leaning as say Indiana, it's simply the relative population of the DC burbs and Baltimore outweigh those areas very comfortably.
    Illinois is probably the most striking example of just how geographically urbanised a Dem heavy vote can be in a state.
    Washington State and Oregon likewise.
    Much of New York State is very rural and conservative.

    Pennsylvania is the interesting one: it's very evenly divided between Philly and Pittsburgh and their 'burbs at each end of the state, and what's often described as "Kentucky in between".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    How Guernsey is coming out of lockdown:

    https://www.gov.gg/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=124781&p=0

    Notably travel restrictions (hello UK) will be the last thing to be lifted.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Will heavy rain have any effect on covid.. keep people indoors?

    I presume it is preferable to days of sunshine which tempt people to bend the rules.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    We're starting our first pre summer heatwave in SE Spain - temperatures from now till September in the 30s or thereabouts. I wonder if it well help to slow the infection rate a bit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Will heavy rain have any effect on covid.. keep people indoors?

    I presume it is preferable to days of sunshine which tempt people to bend the rules.
    It’s going to be most dry and sunny from tomorrow for the foreseeable, which will displease the COVID gloomsters!
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    Just checked on the ONS data and found that my township (approx. 8000 people) has had 9 deaths which is quite high compared to other villages and neighbourhoods. But we do have 5 care homes and I am assuming that when they die in hospital they are recorded as coming from their home address(is that right Foxy?)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    rpjs said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
    One striking feature I found about Maryland is that the rural areas are just as GOP leaning as say Indiana, it's simply the relative population of the DC burbs and Baltimore outweigh those areas very comfortably.
    Illinois is probably the most striking example of just how geographically urbanised a Dem heavy vote can be in a state.
    Washington State and Oregon likewise.
    Much of New York State is very rural and conservative.

    Pennsylvania is the interesting one: it's very evenly divided between Philly and Pittsburgh and their 'burbs at each end of the state, and what's often described as "Kentucky in between".
    I dont think many people realise how rural it gets fairly quickly outside of NYC. It isnt like the sprawl that comes out of London where you can travel in every direction for a long time and it really is just lessening of the population density with small gaps between fairly sizeable towns.

    You go North of NYC and you can be in the arse end of nowhere with no clue how close you are to a mega city.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
    The elderly, poor, and the ill are allowed to man-up too. They get to choose, and not you.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
    The elderly, poor, and the ill are allowed to man-up too. They get to choose, and not you.

    They have chosen. Lockdown is overwhelmingly popular.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    No, but there are a slew of well-known fear factors that make us misperceive risks - overstating some (e.g. risks we cannot control, e.g. Ebola and COVID), and understating others (e.g. risks that come on slowly or which we don't think will effect us, e.g. climate change).

    In that sense, our risk perception can be 'irrational' - but in evolutionary terms, it is very rational to overstate some fears and understate others.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Peak Telegraph article title ?

    "I am refusing to give up on my holiday to Dordogne - even if it means cycling to get there "

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/refusing-give-holiday-dordogne-even-means-cycling-get/

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    TGOHF666 said:

    He's a shaved Corbyn.
    I understand that having a shaved Corbyn is quite popular these days.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
    The elderly, poor, and the ill are allowed to man-up too. They get to choose, and not you.

    They have chosen. Lockdown is overwhelmingly popular.
    True, but I've no idea how your comment connects to the above.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    TGOHF666 said:

    He's a shaved Corbyn.
    Hardly he is more an old Bliar
    Even before he was senile he was never as smart as Blair.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TGOHF666 said:

    He's a shaved Corbyn.
    Hardly he is more an old Bliar
    Dementia Kinnock more like it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
    The elderly, poor, and the ill are allowed to man-up too. They get to choose, and not you.

    And by all accounts they have. I don't see crowds of them storming government buildings (bearing assault weapons or not) demanding liberty, and all polling suggests general support for the lockdown.

    Perhaps if you lot got the elderly, poor, and the ill to make the case rather than some teenage mutated Marxist, it might make it remotely convincing.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
    The elderly, poor, and the ill are allowed to man-up too. They get to choose, and not you.

    And by all accounts they have. I don't see crowds of them storming government buildings (bearing assault weapons or not) demanding liberty, and all polling suggests general support for the lockdown.

    Perhaps if you lot got the elderly, poor, and the ill to make the case rather than some teenage mutated Marxist, it might make it remotely convincing.
    Who's 'you lot'?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    eadric said:

    Just got an email from a friend who got this badly in March - tested positive. I hadn't heard for a while so presumed she was better - she's pretty fit, in her forties, not a vulnerable demog.

    She told me she still has it quite badly. Chest pain, tightness breathing, fatigue, and more. She is getting better but it is very slow.

    FWIW IF I had it back in January, I too still have some symptoms. Shortness of breath, lingering cough, tiredness sometimes; nothing terrible but noticeable

    And see here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/lingering-and-painful-long-and-unclear-road-to-coronavirus-recovery-long-lasting-symptoms

    This bastard virus takes a loooooong time to bugger off. This will have implications for public health for many years. Sadly.

    This is also why Johnson should have stayed off work. He’s no good to himself or the country if he’s not fighting fit.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
    The author asserts "We seem to have lost all sense of proportion " at the beginning of a paragraph and ends it with "placing the entire country under house arrest. "
    I presume this is meta irony.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. Observer, I'm inclined to agree.

    Difficult situation, though.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited May 2020

    rpjs said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    RobD said:

    Frightening photos.

    Pretty much like all the neighbourhood parties around here. ;)

    Perhaps I should explain - we live in the agricultural reserve which is pretty rural, despite its proximity to DC and Baltimore. Lots of people hunt, so lots of camo and guns, and they frequently do it together as a social event with beer.
    One striking feature I found about Maryland is that the rural areas are just as GOP leaning as say Indiana, it's simply the relative population of the DC burbs and Baltimore outweigh those areas very comfortably.
    Illinois is probably the most striking example of just how geographically urbanised a Dem heavy vote can be in a state.
    Washington State and Oregon likewise.
    Much of New York State is very rural and conservative.

    Pennsylvania is the interesting one: it's very evenly divided between Philly and Pittsburgh and their 'burbs at each end of the state, and what's often described as "Kentucky in between".
    I dont think many people realise how rural it gets fairly quickly outside of NYC. It isnt like the sprawl that comes out of London where you can travel in every direction for a long time and it really is just lessening of the population density with small gaps between fairly sizeable towns.

    You go North of NYC and you can be in the arse end of nowhere with no clue how close you are to a mega city.
    Yeah, there's even a big divide just in Westchester County (where I live, the county immediately north of the Bronx). It's very urban in the south - Yonkers is sometimes called the "sixth borough of New York City". Where I am in the middle, Sleepy Hollow / Tarrytown, is small towns with a lot of countryside around and further north gets very rural very quickly.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andy_JS said:

    From the last thread - since the peak (8th April), overall, I think we are seeing a fairly linear decrease. Looks like a decrease of 30 deaths per day (approx).
    If that continues, how many days before we reach close to no deaths, theoretically speaking? (I know it probably won't happen like that in reality).
    ~2 weeks.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    100k+

    #PrayforBethRigby
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Yes kinabalu I agree, one must consider primary concerns like the stage of the economic cycle, the size of the deficit as well as secondary concerns like the size of the debt to get a big picture view.

    Do you agree with that?

    :smile: - bang!

    And yes, of course, no probs reciprocating.

    The debt, the deficit, where one thinks one is in the economic cycle, these are all key to assessing the state of the public finances.

    Debt is "secondary"? Hmm. Not for me. Or rather not necessarily. It really does depend. For example, if yields shoot up the amount of debt you're carrying and its maturity profile can be rather important.

    But that's a mere quibble. We have nailed it. Not only that, I think our lengthy exchange on this most arcane of topics has benefited the whole board.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited May 2020

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Speaking for myself I prefer to be alive and not die from a horrible disease fighting for every breath.

    Have I been driven to irrationality through a culture of fear?
    This is just another facet of the man up, get some fighting spirit bullshit smeared over a libertarian lens.The folk most vulnerable are the elderly, poor and already ill, perhaps these warriors for personal liberty (who'd be the first to bleat about bien pensant metropolitan privilege) should have a taste of that before indulging in their adolescent essay writing.
    The elderly, poor, and the ill are allowed to man-up too. They get to choose, and not you.

    And by all accounts they have. I don't see crowds of them storming government buildings (bearing assault weapons or not) demanding liberty, and all polling suggests general support for the lockdown.

    Perhaps if you lot got the elderly, poor, and the ill to make the case rather than some teenage mutated Marxist, it might make it remotely convincing.
    Support for lockdown is high because people are paid to stay at home. The liberty aspect of this crisis is yet to play out.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    He's a shaved Corbyn.
    Hardly he is more an old Bliar
    Even before he was senile he was never as smart as Blair.
    He doesn't have to be.
    He just has to be more smart than Trump.
    Come to think of it he doesn't even need to be that, anybody could be better than Trump even if they did absolutely nothing.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Does anyone know of a graph of daily deaths by region of those with COVID? We keep seeing the hospitalisations graph in the daily presser but I can't recall seeing this. We see London markedly falling but not much elsewhere, so I was wondering if this is just hospitalisations or if deaths are now also equally spread across the country.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    I gather from @bigjohnowls on PT that the way tests are counted was changed to hit the target?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    slade said:

    Just checked on the ONS data and found that my township (approx. 8000 people) has had 9 deaths which is quite high compared to other villages and neighbourhoods. But we do have 5 care homes and I am assuming that when they die in hospital they are recorded as coming from their home address(is that right Foxy?)

    Oh dear that's a real local hotspot as you say. No COVID deaths in my ONS neighbourhood, despite being in the town, but I think all the most local care homes are in next door neighbourhoods.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    He's a shaved Corbyn.
    Hardly he is more an old Bliar
    Even before he was senile he was never as smart as Blair.
    He doesn't have to be.
    He just has to be more smart than Trump.
    Come to think of it he doesn't even need to be that, anybody could be better than Trump even if they did absolutely nothing.
    I don't disagree. I just wish the choice in quality was clearer. It really shouldn't have been hard.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    I don't go out, but a passing friend (kept several metres away as we shouted to each other down my drive), tells me the local town has seen a lot more traffic in last couple of days. Her journey to (essential) work is also a lot busier ('in the first two weeks I was almost the only car on the road').

    Definitely starting to fray.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    kinabalu said:

    I gather from @bigjohnowls on PT that the way tests are counted was changed to hit the target?

    Does it matter? It's just nitpicking now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pro_Rata said:

    slade said:

    Just checked on the ONS data and found that my township (approx. 8000 people) has had 9 deaths which is quite high compared to other villages and neighbourhoods. But we do have 5 care homes and I am assuming that when they die in hospital they are recorded as coming from their home address(is that right Foxy?)

    Oh dear that's a real local hotspot as you say. No COVID deaths in my ONS neighbourhood, despite being in the town, but I think all the most local care homes are in next door neighbourhoods.
    Is there a way of seeing a smaller area than London Borough?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    eadric said:

    NY schools closed until end of academic year...

    In america that's probably next week anyway (it's actual 8 more weeks looking at https://mommypoppins.com/new-york-city-kids/schools/heres-the-nyc-public-school-calendar-for-2019-2020).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. Borough, I was out today, briefly, and there were notably more people about, and traffic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    122,000 plus tests
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    122,000 plus tests

    2000 from Scotland...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608

    122,000 plus tests

    BOOM!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    122,000 plus tests

    That's one very painful nose someone must have.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    122,000 plus tests

    BOOM!
    :lol:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Peston will be sucking lemons at the moment...
This discussion has been closed.