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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thinking the Unthinkable – how’s this going to be paid for?

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    Betting post: I`ve posted a few times over the last few weeks and months that Trump`s narcicism means that he doesn`t fight battles he thinks he won`t win. His ego can`t take defeat. I`m still not convinced he`ll run. And I believe that if he does he will lose - and lose badly. That was my position before the virus and think it even more so now. Accordingly, I`ve been laying Trump all over the shop both to win the GE and to be the Rep nominee.

    I now see that Trump himself is starting to question things. See links below, which are articles written in the last few hours.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/trump-doesnt-understand-why-hes-losing/610924/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/30/trump-shocked-learn-he-might-not-win-reelection/

    There are various ways to lay Trump with BF:

    Winning party: lay Republicans at 2.04
    Republican nominee: lay Trump at 1.07
    Nominee combo: lay Trump/Biden at 1.20
    Next President: lay Trump at 2.12

    I wouldn`t put anyone off taking any of these, but my favourite lay at the moment is the bottom market on this list.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    There was a time when it wasn't totally bonkers to think that maybe Japan had a lot of hidden infection that hadn't shown up because of lack of testing, and I wouldn't be surprised if there were some shenanigans specific to *Tokyo*, which had bizarrely low numbers before the Olympic cancellation and an unexplained spike in flu deaths not seen in its commuter belt. However, we'd long since have seen these undetected cases show up in hospitals. We'd also have seen the number of cases grow as the number of tests has been (belatedly) increasing, but the opposite is happening.

    Japan doesn't have a UK-level covid19 epidemic. It just doesn't.
    I know you live there and all, but apart from the masks and shops being shut I doubt I'd know there was a pandemic in the UK if I didn't read the news. It's not as though people are routinely collapsing in the street.

    Anyway, my point is that it's still just about plausible that it's there under the surface and eventually will come out. I think it's likely that for cultural reasons, Japan would see lower transmission rates than (say) Italy, but not enough to kill it on its own. There are some very odd stories floating around:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52466834

    We just don't know. In general, experience tells me that Japan is better on data quality than most of Southern Europe, but then again I have no direct experience with its national reporting. They could easily have fallen into the trap of massaging figures downwards to try and prevent people panicking. It's just going to be impossible to compare countries until the epidemic is long passed.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,453
    DavidL said:

    Neither were available to the government when we started the lockdown.

    The next sensible phase would be to use certain centres for Covid cases only and allow other hospitals to return to elective surgery, while carrying out v careful screening on all patients that enter. The alternative is that people dying from Covid could soon be overtaken by those who have waited too long for a stent or other such non-emergency life saving surgery
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Stocky said:

    Betting post: I`ve posted a few times over the last few weeks and months that Trump`s narcicism means that he doesn`t fight battles he thinks he won`t win. His ego can`t take defeat. I`m still not convinced he`ll run. And I believe that if he does he will lose - and lose badly. That was my position before the virus and think it even more so now. Accordingly, I`ve been laying Trump all over the shop both to win the GE and to be the Rep nominee.

    I now see that Trump himself is starting to question things. See links below, which are articles written in the last few hours.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/trump-doesnt-understand-why-hes-losing/610924/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/30/trump-shocked-learn-he-might-not-win-reelection/

    There are various ways to lay Trump with BF:

    Winning party: lay Republicans at 2.04
    Republican nominee: lay Trump at 1.07
    Nominee combo: lay Trump/Biden at 1.20
    Next President: lay Trump at 2.12

    I wouldn`t put anyone off taking any of these, but my favourite lay at the moment is the bottom market on this list.

    He didn't think he'd win in 2016
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited May 2020

    It's everywhere already, go for a walk and you'll find people smoking it. It smells much stronger than 20 years ago as well.

    It seems that 90% of 15-25 year old males are smoking it, I dread to think about all the mental health problems resulting in a decade or so.
    It's currently believed 17.3% of 16-24 year olds have used cannabis "in the last year", approximately 5% at least twice a month.

    Drug use overall hit a low a few years ago, and has risen since - but is yet to come anywhere near all time highs (which I believe was 2001-2).

  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    tlg86 said:

    But only if you're prepared to dish out serious punishment for possession of illegal drugs.
    If legalised drugs are sold "not for profit" then you surely kill the illegal versions and , metaphorically, those involved therewith.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    DavidL said:

    It is also significant that it has taken until now to generate sufficient testing capacity and it took several weeks to produce the Nightingale capacity. Neither were available to the government when we started the lockdown.
    We are certainly in a massively better place now than we were a few weeks back. Kudos to the Govt. for that. The Royal Hindsight Commission will decide how much of this we should have had in place on 1st January, but at least by 1st May testing and ICU capacity is now in place. The stories behind the scenes of the heads that needed to be knocked together to get us here will be fascinating. The "different ways of working" will be legion.

    Where are those EU ventilators BTW?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    It's currently believed 17.3% of 16-24 year olds have used cannabis "in the last year".

    Drug use overall hit a low a few years ago, and has risen since - but is yet to come anywhere near all time highs (which I believe was 2001-2).

    Kids these days don't know how to have fun...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567
    Why the Justin Amash candidacy matters

    "Amash carries none of that baggage. Like his progressive congressional counterpart, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the libertarian is young, idealistic and looks like the multi-ethnic future of America."

    https://spectator.us/justin-amash-candidacy-matters/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    edited May 2020
    Stocky said:

    Interesting that you had issues with BA BigG. Looks like at some point soon I`m going to have to tackle BA over £2,500 flights which look unlikely to happen in July. Any tips? Did you get the refund via BA or via your credit card company?

    Any advice much appreciated.
    I did tackle BA when we went into lockdown by e mail as it impossible to get any sense any other way. However, they only offered me a voucher as their flight was still scheduled on the 12th May to Vancouver, return on the 25th May. A week or so ago I received an e mail from BA confirming they had cancelled both flights and referred me to my booking app.

    The app only allows for you to apply for a voucher and it is very difficult to actually see where you apply for a refund which is the law at present, unless of course the EU do pass this change which you need to watch. I e mailed BA again and tried their customer services on the phone for over a couple of days and in the end, and after a one and a quarter hour wait, I did get through to a BA customer service rep working from her home in Bolton who processed the refund and was very helpful. Within 48 hours of my phone call with BA my full refund of £2,034.76 was back in my credit card account

    I had e mailed Nationwide at the same time I was having difficulty with BA re my credit card and they were very efficient contacting me within a couple of days confirming their responsibility under the credit card act and to keep in touch over progress with BA

    I would suggest to yourself and indeed anyone going on holiday over the next few months to keep an eye on when the flights etc are actually cancelled and the minute the cancellation takes place contact the company preferably by phone, or otherwise e mail and simultaneously contact your credit card issuer and seek to use the Section 75 credit card scheme, and maybe even more importantly if the EU really do pass this dreadful attack on European holidaymakers, to cover for any loss

    On the BA app you can seek out the flight status by keying in your destination and flight date and it will show if the flight is still active

    I hope this helps
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    And the UK Government gave a bailout to Hungarian airline Wizz Air just after refusing even a commercial loan to Virgin Atlantic.

    (Wizz Air also happens to have the strongest financial position of any airline in Europe and could survive without any flights for 22 months, but can make a profit on the "soft loan" they got)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249

    We are certainly in a massively better place now than we were a few weeks back. Kudos to the Govt. for that. The Royal Hindsight Commission will decide how much of this we should have had in place on 1st January, but at least by 1st May testing and ICU capacity is now in place. The stories behind the scenes of the heads that needed to be knocked together to get us here will be fascinating. The "different ways of working" will be legion.

    Where are those EU ventilators BTW?
    I am sure that there is a very high powered committee representing a vast plethora of interests working on it whilst we speak.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2020

    Kids these days don't know how to have fun...
    I am always amused in the gym (those places we used to go to work out), when I hear the "kids" talk about being on a cut / eating super clean / not drinking, so they are in tip-top condition for their upcoming 2 week bender in Ayia Napa.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Really? What word do you apply to people who refuse to vote for somebody they believe to be a senile rapist?
    Wait, which one's the senile rapist?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    alterego said:

    If legalised drugs are sold "not for profit" then you surely kill the illegal versions and , metaphorically, those involved therewith.
    That assumes the proposal is to legalise all drugs. I'm not sure anyone wants to legalise heroin, though I might be wrong.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,430
    DavidL said:

    With respect this is just nonsense. At the time the best advice was that control of the virus by trace and isolate was doomed to fail. The object therefore was to flatten the curve, an object that has been achieved. Now, with the experience of SK, it is thought that it might be possible to control the virus this way long term. Whether that in fact proves to be the case remains to be seen but it is rewriting history to suggest that was an option that was suggested as being open to the government at the time.

    The cost of the lockdown runs to tens of billions a week. We must be locked down for as short a period as possible compatible with our primary objective of not allowing the NHS to be overwhelmed. In Scotland the lock down undoubtedly came at least 2 weeks, possibly 3 weeks too early. The extra capacity created in the NHS has not been used. Other people whose treatment was deferred will die as a result of that wasted capacity. The number of cases remains small and the costs of the lockdown wholly disproportionate. As I understand it the same could be said for the SW. When to lockdown was a difficult decision which had to be taken when a part of the country, London in this case, was reaching breaking point so far as the NHS was concerned.
    I disagree that the primary objective of the lockdown should be to avoid the health service being overwhelmed. Also the government's original "flatten the curve" policy was misconceived (they don't talk about it now).

    The primary objective of the lockdown should be to get control over the epidemic infection rate and keep total infections down, The second objective is to buy time so other more targeted and less damaging methods of control can be brought in. including test, trace and quarantine. Not overwhelming the health service is necessary but is dealt with by this primary purpose of infection rate control. None of this is new; it was discussed at the time, including by myself. Asian countries were already successfully following this policy.

    By acting late, ineffectively and not using the time to prepare, the government has given itself less room for manoeuvre to ease off lockdown, with the result that many more people will die and the lockdown will be longer and more economically and socially damaging than it need to have been.

    We are where we are and we have to deal with the situation as it is, but we also need to be aware that are choices now are limited by those mistakes previously made.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Well part of the issue is that not all weed is the same.

    You get mild stuff, through to damn hard stuff.

    If it was legalised would it 'all' be legalised. I doubt it. So the hard skunk stuff would be there still.

    It'll be like 'legalising' alcohol, but the only thing you can buy is Mild Ale.

    Or is it different in other countries?
    Why not legalise it but regulate it like alcohol?

    If you want beer you can drink beer. If you want spirits you can buy spirits. If you want ludicrously strong spirits like Overproof Rum you can buy it.

    But the key with regulation is knowledge. The strength is listed, you know what you are buying and you can know the risks. Better than the only thing being available is moonshine spirits that you don't know the strength of and could contain added toxins.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    alterego said:

    I've still got clothes bought before I was born.
    It really is time though to let go of that blue towelling romper suit....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249

    I agree if we have enough staff to cover both. Not sure about that.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,453

    Chinese flogging dangerous shit again...

    Chinese ventilators that ministers heralded as vital to the NHS’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 were badly built, unsuitable for use in hospitals and potentially dangerous for patients, it has emerged.

    A well-placed NHS source said the incident highlighted problems that had occurred with a range of medical supplies and equipment ordered from China during the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Some other stuff ordered from China recently, especially personal protective equipment, has also turned out to be either of a lesser quality than what we need or to be the wrong thing altogether, like T-shirts instead of long-sleeved surgical gowns” they said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/30/entire-order-of-250-chinese-ventilators-were-useless-despite

    Just taking the piss. Flog the west any old shit, because they will be too busy to worry about any come back.

    The problem is, in the Uk in particular, procurement has been about buy the cheapest possible. The Chinese have ripped off patents for medical devices left right and centre, as they have in other areas, and their companies have been rewarded with sales of low quality equipment. The one thing that has prevented it being even worse has been the requirements of CE marking and FDA regulations.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567

    Chinese flogging dangerous shit again...

    Chinese ventilators that ministers heralded as vital to the NHS’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 were badly built, unsuitable for use in hospitals and potentially dangerous for patients, it has emerged.

    A well-placed NHS source said the incident highlighted problems that had occurred with a range of medical supplies and equipment ordered from China during the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Some other stuff ordered from China recently, especially personal protective equipment, has also turned out to be either of a lesser quality than what we need or to be the wrong thing altogether, like T-shirts instead of long-sleeved surgical gowns” they said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/30/entire-order-of-250-chinese-ventilators-were-useless-despite

    Just taking the piss. Flog the west any old shit, because they will be too busy to worry about any come back.

    There are some key industries that we will have to get back up and running in this country when this is over. Even if they have to be subsidised.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    edited May 2020

    He didn't think he'd win in 2016
    I`m not sure. I thought he`d win in 2016 and did very well! I was in Florida the week before the election - in an up-market cosmopolitan area that I would have had as nailed-on Dem. There were Trump posters and placards in gardens everywhere. I think it hinges on internal party polling.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    There are some key industries that we will have to get back up and running in this country when this is over. Even if they have to be subsidised.
    Factories Up-Norfffff seems like a total no-brainer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    Oh and just to congratulate the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. Took a lot of stick but he made it. 100k tests. Tick.

    One could ask questions - (i) Is he marking his own homework? (ii) Was the target too hard and thus more important things have suffered because of it? (iii) Was the target too easy given it has been met? (iv) Is it not a trifle suspicious how it has been exactly met on the exact due day? (v) Just what generally was Hancock playing at with this whole "target" business? (vi) Was he - is he - using it to distract and hide something?

    But let's not do this. This is not a time to be churlish. The time to be churlish will be come the inevitable public inquiry next year into all aspects of the government's response to Covid-19.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    And the UK Government gave a bailout to Hungarian airline Wizz Air just after refusing even a commercial loan to Virgin Atlantic.

    (Wizz Air also happens to have the strongest financial position of any airline in Europe and could survive without any flights for 22 months, but can make a profit on the "soft loan" they got)
    This line from that article seems rather relevant: The UK Government will make a profit on this loan
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155
    DavidL said:

    I am sure that there is a very high powered committee representing a vast plethora of interests working on it whilst we speak.
    I spoke to a German colleague - he has a brother taking part in the "Naked Doctor" protest about PPE.

    He is not impressed with the EU order thing. Given he lives a rock throw from a Wurth facility...
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,407
    FF43 said:

    I disagree that the primary objective of the lockdown should be to avoid the health service being overwhelmed. Also the government's original "flatten the curve" policy was misconceived (they don't talk about it now).

    The primary objective of the lockdown should be to get control over the epidemic infection rate and keep total infections down, The second objective is to buy time so other more targeted and less damaging methods of control can be brought in. including test, trace and quarantine. Not overwhelming the health service is necessary but is dealt with by this primary purpose of infection rate control. None of this is new; it was discussed at the time, including by myself. Asian countries were already successfully following this policy.

    By acting late, ineffectively and not using the time to prepare, the government has given itself less room for manoeuvre to ease off lockdown, with the result that many more people will die and the lockdown will be longer and more economically and socially damaging than it need to have been.

    We are where we are and we have to deal with the situation as it is, but we also need to be aware that are choices now are limited by those mistakes previously made.
    Crude, politically-motivated rubbish.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    kinabalu said:

    Oh and just to congratulate the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. Took a lot of stick but he made it. 100k tests. Tick.

    One could ask questions - (i) Is he marking his own homework? (ii) Was the target too hard and thus more important things have suffered because of it? (iii) Was the target too easy given it has been met? (iv) Is it not a trifle suspicious how it has been exactly met on the exact due day? (v) Just what generally was Hancock playing at with this whole "target" business? (vi) Was he - is he - using it to distract and hide something?

    But let's not do this. This is not a time to be churlish. The time to be churlish will be come the inevitable public inquiry next year into all aspects of the government's response to Covid-19.

    Why do you think that a public inquiry is inevitable? 80 majority an all.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Endillion said:

    Wait, which one's the senile rapist?
    Well, it's not proven in either case, but I'd say it's perfectly reasonable to conclude both of them. And Biden's cognitive decline seems worse than Trump's, which makes me wonder why all the liberals who were going on about Trump's lack of intelligence being so important for the last four years would pick Biden.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    FF43 said:

    I disagree that the primary objective of the lockdown should be to avoid the health service being overwhelmed. Also the government's original "flatten the curve" policy was misconceived (they don't talk about it now).

    The primary objective of the lockdown should be to get control over the epidemic infection rate and keep total infections down, The second objective is to buy time so other more targeted and less damaging methods of control can be brought in. including test, trace and quarantine. Not overwhelming the health service is necessary but is dealt with by this primary purpose of infection rate control. None of this is new; it was discussed at the time, including by myself. Asian countries were already successfully following this policy.

    By acting late, ineffectively and not using the time to prepare, the government has given itself less room for manoeuvre to ease off lockdown, with the result that many more people will die and the lockdown will be longer and more economically and socially damaging than it need to have been.

    We are where we are and we have to deal with the situation as it is, but we also need to be aware that are choices now are limited by those mistakes previously made.
    The government still talks about flattening the curve daily. The advice was that what SK was trying wouldn't work. The time won has been used to almost miraculous effect. I am genuinely astonished how fast the NHS and the Treasury have moved. You can certainly make the point we did not start in the right place and that the existing plans should have looked more closely at what south Asian countries achieved with previous pandemics like SARS but that was the advice the government had.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2020
    alterego said:

    If legalised drugs are sold "not for profit" then you surely kill the illegal versions and , metaphorically, those involved therewith.
    Why on earth would legalised drugs be sold not for profit?

    They should be sold for profit by a regulated company like Diageo.

    The reality is who buys moonshine from a gangster when they can get a bottle of vodka (skunk) or beer (soft marijuana) from a shop?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Oh and just to congratulate the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. Took a lot of stick but he made it. 100k tests. Tick.

    One could ask questions - (i) Is he marking his own homework? (ii) Was the target too hard and thus more important things have suffered because of it? (iii) Was the target too easy given it has been met? (iv) Is it not a trifle suspicious how it has been exactly met on the exact due day? (v) Just what generally was Hancock playing at with this whole "target" business? (vi) Was he - is he - using it to distract and hide something?

    But let's not do this. This is not a time to be churlish. The time to be churlish will be come the inevitable public inquiry next year into all aspects of the government's response to Covid-19.

    If the government / Hancock is totally billy bullshitting about the amounts it will soon leak and it would massively discredit the government stats on everything related to CV. It would make claims that lockdown was a few days late or shortage of PPE look like a minor bumps in the round.

    I think there are valid criticisms / improvements i.e. the test turn around need to be less than 24hrs for front line workers and we need to more to a system where such workers can get one done basically straight away (while the plebs can queue).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155

    And the UK Government gave a bailout to Hungarian airline Wizz Air just after refusing even a commercial loan to Virgin Atlantic.

    (Wizz Air also happens to have the strongest financial position of any airline in Europe and could survive without any flights for 22 months, but can make a profit on the "soft loan" they got)
    Virgin Atlantic have refused to be transparent, repeatedly about their structure. Given the way that they seem to make a loss onshore, while paying over the odds for services provided by offshore companies....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pagan2 said:

    You are making an assumption here that tax is all that incentivises people to forgo income.

    for example
    My job my take home pay is Y, for a shelf stacker it is X
    The extra money I get paid (Y-X) incentivises me to keep in my job and not quit and become a shelf stacker.

    However my job also involves unpaid overtime, stress, support rota's, longer commutes probably as most shelf stackers will live closer to work. If the value Y-X becomes small enough that I don't think the extra pay is worth all that extra angst I definitely go sod this I will go shelf stacking instead. Your progressive taxation lowers the value of Y-X as I will be paying a larger portion of tax than currently thus lowering the value of Y and possibly raising the value of X.

    No, it's the other way round. The proposal I described is designed to reduce the perverse incentive not to take the increased pay, which you get at the moment because of various tax band effects (and benefits as well). At no point in the system I'm describing would you be heavily penalised for earning extra pay.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    edited May 2020
    Stocky said:

    I`m not sure. I thought he`d win in 2016 and did very well! I was in Florida the week before the election - and an up-market cosmopolitan area that I would have had as nailed-on Dem. There were Trump posters and placards in gardens everywhere. I think it hinges on internal party polling.
    Sheepish saying this but I also backed him to win in 2016. Not that I truly thought he would but the odds - approx 4/1 IIRC - looked too high with the Brexit debacle over here being still such a fresh memory.

    PS:

    That's me, you and @Alistair in the Trump Toast club now.

    Great club too. All welcome!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Virgin Atlantic have refused to be transparent, repeatedly about their structure. Given the way that they seem to make a loss onshore, while paying over the odds for services provided by offshore companies....
    Virgin are reaping what they have sowed. I know nobody who has sympathy for them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    It's good there'll be a profit to the taxpayer over Wizz Air and all, but our Gov't doesn't seem to have any control whatsoever over our airspace.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,090

    Well said.

    Some people are acting as if the only acceptable death number is zero or as close to zero as possible. The objective was to not overwhelm the NHS and flatten the curve - and the curve has been flattened and the NHS was never overwhelmed.

    The lockdown came at the right point for London and was probably too early for the rest of the UK but it makes sense not to repeat the Italian mistake of locking down one region only then seeing people flee from there to the rest of the nation. So it made sense sadly to lock down too early in the rest of the UK otherwise we'd have been flooded with Londoners bringing the plague with them.
    I'm sorry, but the nature of exponential mathematics means your argument is cobblers. The earlier you impose restrictions that reduce R, the less time you have to impose them for, as it takes less time to reduce the number of infections from a lower base.

    Earlier action would have saved lives and money.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    tlg86 said:

    That assumes the proposal is to legalise all drugs. I'm not sure anyone wants to legalise heroin, though I might be wrong.
    Where is there an assumption of legalisation being all embracing? I specifically related the consequence to whatever drug is legalised. What you legalise is a different debate.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    edited May 2020

    Well, it's not proven in either case, but I'd say it's perfectly reasonable to conclude both of them. And Biden's cognitive decline seems worse than Trump's, which makes me wonder why all the liberals who were going on about Trump's lack of intelligence being so important for the last four years would pick Biden.
    Biden isn't as sharp as he was but there's no sign that he's losing his mind, it's a totally different kind of thing to Trump.

    You notice it less with Trump because you get used to him being confused and incoherent but the decline is really dramatic if you look at a clip from when he was younger and realise that he used to be able to express coherent thoughts:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-w47wgdhso
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896

    Take-away / delivery I guess?
    One of our pubs is operating it's food service as a takeaway, and very, very good it is, too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,155

    If the government / Hancock is totally billy bullshitting about the amounts it will soon leak and it would massively discredit the government stats on everything related to CV. It would make claims that lockdown was a few days late or shortage of PPE look like a minor bumps in the round.

    I think there are valid criticisms / improvements i.e. the test turn around need to be less than 24hrs for front line workers and we need to more to a system where such workers can get one done basically straight away (while the plebs can queue).
    It is a classic example of a stretch goal.

    It's interesting to listen to the rather blurry criticism of the strategy - see BBC reports etc - from inside the system. It sounds rather as if the approach that the system would prefer would be a carefully designed testing structure, then order the right testing facilities to match. All very waterfall.

    The public administartion organisations in this country love waterfall planing.

    The other approach is to say - if we have a too many tests, LOL. So we just keep increasing testing capacity. Who gets tested can be changed relatively quickly,

    I would also presume that it was a case of "setup new facility x. Debug it. Create y facilities to the same formula". That kind of rollout can end up looking quite... exponential.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    edited May 2020

    Biden isn't as sharp as he was but there's no sign that he's losing his mind, it's a totally different kind of thing to Trump.

    You notice it less with Trump because you get used to him being confused and incoherent but the decline is really dramatic if you look at a clip from when he was younger and realise that he used to be able to express coherent thoughts:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-w47wgdhso
    Iain Dale put up an interview on his podcast a few weeks ago that he did with Trump before Trump got into politics. It was extraordinary. He sounded very different then. (I still didn`t like him obvs.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,863

    I did tackle BA when we went into lockdown by e mail as it impossible to get any sense any other way. However, they only offered me a voucher as their flight was still scheduled on the 12th May to Vancouver, return on the 25th May. A week or so ago I received an e mail from BA confirming they had cancelled both flights and referred me to my booking app.

    The app only allows for you to apply for a voucher and it is very difficult to actually see where you apply for a refund which is the law at present, unless of course the EU do pass this change which you need to watch. I e mailed BA again and tried their customer services on the phone for over a couple of days and in the end, and after a one and a quarter hour wait, I did get through to a BA customer service rep working from her home in Bolton who processed the refund and was very helpful. Within 48 hours of my phone call with BA my full refund of £2,034.76 was back in my credit card account

    I had e mailed Nationwide at the same time I was having difficulty with BA re my credit card and they were very efficient contacting me within a couple of days confirming their responsibility under the credit card act and to keep in touch over progress with BA

    I would suggest to yourself and indeed anyone going on holiday over the next few months to keep an eye on when the flights etc are actually cancelled and the minute the cancellation takes place contact the company preferably by phone, or otherwise e mail and simultaneously contact your credit card issuer and seek to use the Section 75 credit card scheme, and maybe even more importantly if the EU really do pass this dreadful attack on European holidaymakers, to cover for any loss

    On the BA app you can seek out the flight status by keying in your destination and flight date and it will show if the flight is still active

    I hope this helps
    BA ignored my brother's request for a refund on his London to Heathrow flights booked for 12 May and replaced it with an alternative flight.

    Spot the flaw:

    image

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    Chinese flogging dangerous shit again...

    Chinese ventilators that ministers heralded as vital to the NHS’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 were badly built, unsuitable for use in hospitals and potentially dangerous for patients, it has emerged.

    A well-placed NHS source said the incident highlighted problems that had occurred with a range of medical supplies and equipment ordered from China during the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Some other stuff ordered from China recently, especially personal protective equipment, has also turned out to be either of a lesser quality than what we need or to be the wrong thing altogether, like T-shirts instead of long-sleeved surgical gowns” they said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/30/entire-order-of-250-chinese-ventilators-were-useless-despite

    Just taking the piss. Flog the west any old shit, because they will be too busy to worry about any come back.

    I wouldn't take it personally. By all accounts anyone who tries to buy stuff from Chinese suppliers without knowing who they're buying from and how to make sure they get their money's worth is going to get robbed, Western, Chinese or otherwise.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    The problem is, in the Uk in particular, procurement has been about buy the cheapest possible. The Chinese have ripped off patents for medical devices left right and centre, as they have in other areas, and their companies have been rewarded with sales of low quality equipment. The one thing that has prevented it being even worse has been the requirements of CE marking and FDA regulations.
    Chinese have always ripped off patents on everything. Way back I worked with James Mackie exporting jute machinery and the Chinese even copied the patent plaque on the machine.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291

    If the government / Hancock is totally billy bullshitting about the amounts it will soon leak and it would massively discredit the government stats on everything related to CV. It would make claims that lockdown was a few days late or shortage of PPE look like a minor bumps in the round.

    I think there are valid criticisms / improvements i.e. the test turn around need to be less than 24hrs for front line workers and we need to more to a system where such workers can get one done basically straight away (while the plebs can queue).
    Fair enough. You are better informed than me on this issue. I track 5 PB posters on matters virus and you are one of them. Awesome responsibility, this, I realize, so I probably shouldn't have said.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Biden isn't as sharp as he was but there's no sign that he's losing his mind, it's a totally different kind of thing to Trump.

    You notice it less with Trump because you get used to him being confused and incoherent but the decline is really dramatic if you look at a clip from when he was younger and realise that he used to be able to express coherent thoughts:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-w47wgdhso
    Wow its a different person.

    Biden I think it is clear he's losing his mind. And with the rape allegations surrounding him with Reade too . . . he is not a good candidate at all.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    Stocky said:

    Why do you think that a public inquiry is inevitable? 80 majority an all.
    And in a year. We will be a long way from resolving the issues in a year
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Stocky said:

    Iain Dale put up an interview on his podcast a few weeks ago that he did with Trump before Trump got into politics. It was extraordinary. He sounded very different then. (I still didn`t like him obvs.)

    Yup, it's kind of jarring to hear him having a lot of the same phrases and verbal tics, but deploying them to say normal, coherent things without the brain worms.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,387
    It's getting clearer we are prepping no deal.

    https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/generale/2020/05/01/news/brexit_l_ultimatum_di_londra_l_ue_accetti_le_nostre_condizioni_ecco_perche_altrimenti_stop_ai_negoziati_-255319167/

    All but the top is paywalled, but enough to get the gist here.

    I was worrying about a French trade border shutdown come January with them not wanting intensive border management during a second pandemic wave. I read about some trilateral UK/Ireland/France deal to assure trade flows during COVID last week. The only explanation that such a thing would not be taken as read is that HMG shared that worry, and are looking at No Deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It is a classic example of a stretch goal.

    It's interesting to listen to the rather blurry criticism of the strategy - see BBC reports etc - from inside the system. It sounds rather as if the approach that the system would prefer would be a carefully designed testing structure, then order the right testing facilities to match. All very waterfall.

    The public administartion organisations in this country love waterfall planing.

    The other approach is to say - if we have a too many tests, LOL. So we just keep increasing testing capacity. Who gets tested can be changed relatively quickly,

    I would also presume that it was a case of "setup new facility x. Debug it. Create y facilities to the same formula". That kind of rollout can end up looking quite... exponential.
    Too many people still don't understand exponential growth even now. Hence people expected the testing to go up on a linear scale.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,430
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    The government still talks about flattening the curve daily. The advice was that what SK was trying wouldn't work. The time won has been used to almost miraculous effect. I am genuinely astonished how fast the NHS and the Treasury have moved. You can certainly make the point we did not start in the right place and that the existing plans should have looked more closely at what south Asian countries achieved with previous pandemics like SARS but that was the advice the government had.
    I agree the government has done a number of good things recently - although note most are in line with what's happening elsewhere. But there's no getting away from the UK's very high Covid-19 death and infection rates. This not only means a lot of personal tragedy but also in policy terms, it severely restricts the governments' options and possibility of significantly easing lockdown in the short term. As I say, we are where we are and we have to deal with it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249

    I am always amused in the gym (those places we used to go to work out), when I hear the "kids" talk about being on a cut / eating super clean / not drinking, so they are in tip-top condition for their upcoming 2 week bender in Ayia Napa.
    Love Island "culture".
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    This line from that article seems rather relevant: The UK Government will make a profit on this loan
    And would do so on all loans made at 0.6%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stocky said:

    Betting post: I`ve posted a few times over the last few weeks and months that Trump`s narcicism means that he doesn`t fight battles he thinks he won`t win. His ego can`t take defeat. I`m still not convinced he`ll run. And I believe that if he does he will lose - and lose badly. That was my position before the virus and think it even more so now. Accordingly, I`ve been laying Trump all over the shop both to win the GE and to be the Rep nominee.

    I now see that Trump himself is starting to question things. See links below, which are articles written in the last few hours.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/trump-doesnt-understand-why-hes-losing/610924/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/30/trump-shocked-learn-he-might-not-win-reelection/

    There are various ways to lay Trump with BF:

    Winning party: lay Republicans at 2.04
    Republican nominee: lay Trump at 1.07
    Nominee combo: lay Trump/Biden at 1.20
    Next President: lay Trump at 2.12

    I wouldn`t put anyone off taking any of these, but my favourite lay at the moment is the bottom market on this list.

    I am using the winning party market. I'm far more cautious than I would otherwise be as I fear the GOP using Coronavirus as cover for a massive voter disenfranchisement push but otherwise I'm with you. Trump is fucked.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    With respect this is just nonsense. At the time the best advice was that control of the virus by trace and isolate was doomed to fail. The object therefore was to flatten the curve, an object that has been achieved. Now, with the experience of SK, it is thought that it might be possible to control the virus this way long term. Whether that in fact proves to be the case remains to be seen but it is rewriting history to suggest that was an option that was suggested as being open to the government at the time. ..
    What was open to the government was locking down a week earlier.
    And all the evidence is that the sooner the lockdown, the shorter time it might have had to last.
    If all the evidence was that 'track and trace was doomed to fail' then locking down ought to have happened immediately. the reason it didn't was the flirtation with herd immunity.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150

    BA ignored my brother's request for a refund on his London to Heathrow flights booked for 12 May and replaced it with an alternative flight.

    Spot the flaw:

    image

    Oh dear. He needs to get his refund and tell his credit card company
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,184

    No, it's the other way round. The proposal I described is designed to reduce the perverse incentive not to take the increased pay, which you get at the moment because of various tax band effects (and benefits as well). At no point in the system I'm describing would you be heavily penalised for earning extra pay.
    You miss my point entirely, I am not talking about not taking extra pay I am talking about the effect on take home pay differentials let me illustrate with some figures

    A earns 20k he pays currently 20% tax of 29pounds a week and takes home 332
    B earns 40k he pays currently 20% tax of 106pounds a week and takes home 529

    B considers that the extra 197£ a week is reasonable compensation for the unpaid overtime , the commute costs, the stress and the support rota

    under your system A now pays for example 5% and b pays 35%

    A now pays tax of 7£ a week and takes home 354£
    b now pays tax of 185$ a week and takes home 450£

    Now B is wondering if the 96 pounds extra is worth it for the unpaid overtime , the commute costs, the stress and the support rota
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    Wow its a different person.

    Biden I think it is clear he's losing his mind. And with the rape allegations surrounding him with Reade too . . . he is not a good candidate at all.
    Disagree, his memory's going a bit but his mind's still there. And they were always going to put up a rape accuser against any man who ran.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh yeah, Biden being a disaster zone of a candidate is another reason I am being cautious.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    And would do so on all loans made at 0.6%
    Not quite, they would do so only to companies they can be assured would repay the loan - which given you said that "Wizz Air also happens to have the strong financial position of any airline in Europe" etc seems to apply to them. Seems like a win/win that loan, they make money, we make money, there doesn't seem to be risk.

    If another company took a loan at 0.6% but there was a 1% default risk then that would be a bad deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    One of our pubs is operating it's food service as a takeaway, and very, very good it is, too.
    We treated ourselves on Tuesday to the legendary fish and chips from the Cott Inn at Dartington - currently still flying the big banner proclaiming it "The Best Pub in Britain". Just pulling in to the car park and smelling the food was a joy. Very organised, we had a time slot of 6.50, food was 10 minutes late but we could live with that. Ferocioulsy hot, we ate them in the car, looking out over Totnes.

    It was about the happiest the wife has been in 8 weeks....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567
    R4 You and Yours covering the finances of care sector.

    "a financial wreck", before the virus struck.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,291
    Stocky said:

    Why do you think that a public inquiry is inevitable? 80 majority an all.
    Because it's just so big and we are heading for such a bad outcome - probably the worst in Europe. Surely some sort of formal "lessons learned" process will happen and be conducted in public? Don't know about the timing though.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Why on earth would legalised drugs be sold not for profit?

    They should be sold for profit by a regulated company like Diageo.

    The reality is who buys moonshine from a gangster when they can get a bottle of vodka (skunk) or beer (soft marijuana) from a shop?
    Your first sentence - it depends on what your motivation is for producing a legal version. Do you want to kill the illegal version or do you want to make a profit? You pays your money ......

    Not sure about your last sentence either, but if that's your experience it doesn't necessarily have wider ramifications.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Disagree, his memory's going a bit but his mind's still there. And they were always going to put up a rape accuser against any man who ran.
    Considering Reade's accusations have some media statements in the early nineties it seems more concerning than just something that was always going to happen.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,932

    Chinese flogging dangerous shit again...

    Chinese ventilators that ministers heralded as vital to the NHS’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 were badly built, unsuitable for use in hospitals and potentially dangerous for patients, it has emerged.

    A well-placed NHS source said the incident highlighted problems that had occurred with a range of medical supplies and equipment ordered from China during the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Some other stuff ordered from China recently, especially personal protective equipment, has also turned out to be either of a lesser quality than what we need or to be the wrong thing altogether, like T-shirts instead of long-sleeved surgical gowns” they said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/30/entire-order-of-250-chinese-ventilators-were-useless-despite

    Just taking the piss. Flog the west any old shit, because they will be too busy to worry about any come back.

    Which is why we need to increase our own capacity to manufacture PPE, medical equipment etc.

    Whether the government realises that is doubtful.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    edited May 2020
    Alistair said:

    I am using the winning party market. I'm far more cautious than I would otherwise be as I fear the GOP using Coronavirus as cover for a massive voter disenfranchisement push but otherwise I'm with you. Trump is fucked.
    Why lay (at 2.04) on winning party market when you can lay Trump specifically (at 2.12) and have two chances of winning? You are running the risk of Trump pulling out and the Reps going on to win with a different nominee.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Thirty million per British registered plane for Wizz Air. Well done them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alterego said:

    Your first sentence - it depends on what your motivation is for producing a legal version. Do you want to kill the illegal version or do you want to make a profit? You pays your money ......

    Not sure about your last sentence either, but if that's your experience it doesn't necessarily have wider ramifications.
    I want to do both. And for-profit companies work smarter and better than not-for-profit ones. Profit is not a bad thing.

    How much illegal moonshine alcohol do you buy from gangsters? I've personally always bought beer, wine and spirits that were legally produced as opposed to illegal unregulated gangster moonshine.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pagan2 said:

    You miss my point entirely, I am not talking about not taking extra pay I am talking about the effect on take home pay differentials let me illustrate with some figures

    A earns 20k he pays currently 20% tax of 29pounds a week and takes home 332
    B earns 40k he pays currently 20% tax of 106pounds a week and takes home 529

    B considers that the extra 197£ a week is reasonable compensation for the unpaid overtime , the commute costs, the stress and the support rota

    under your system A now pays for example 5% and b pays 35%

    A now pays tax of 7£ a week and takes home 354£
    b now pays tax of 185$ a week and takes home 450£

    Now B is wondering if the 96 pounds extra is worth it for the unpaid overtime , the commute costs, the stress and the support rota
    No, your figure of 35% at £40K is far, far too high. I haven't done the full sums (and of course it could be calibrated at whatever rate the Chancellor wanted), but I'd guess it would probably be around 15% at that level.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,249
    Nigelb said:

    What was open to the government was locking down a week earlier.
    And all the evidence is that the sooner the lockdown, the shorter time it might have had to last.
    If all the evidence was that 'track and trace was doomed to fail' then locking down ought to have happened immediately. the reason it didn't was the flirtation with herd immunity.
    I am really not sure how you can say that when yesterday we had 6k new cases. If a lockdown stopped the spread completely then maybe but it clearly doesn't just as the government models said it wouldn't. What I think we need to focus a lot more attention on is where those 6k people got infected, where are the weak points and what can we do about them if we come out of lockdown.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,544
    Alistair said:

    I am using the winning party market. I'm far more cautious than I would otherwise be as I fear the GOP using Coronavirus as cover for a massive voter disenfranchisement push but otherwise I'm with you. Trump is fucked.
    I haven't noticed it mentioned here, although it may have been, but a Texas poll put Biden a point up.
    MOE of course, but pointing to a big problem for Trump.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171

    Which is why we need to increase our own capacity to manufacture PPE, medical equipment etc.

    Whether the government realises that is doubtful.
    We've been through this before. ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567
    Apparently some/many councils have taken the Government's extra money for care sector and not passed it on, accuses an operator on R4.

    One for the journalists to ask about tonight.

    Would make a change from when is the lockdown going to end.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    Considering Reade's accusations have some media statements in the early nineties it seems more concerning than just something that was always going to happen.
    There don't seem to be any media statements saying what she's now saying - lost of detail here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/29/joe-biden-sexual-assault-allegation-tara-reade-column/3046962001/
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,184

    No, your figure of 35% at £40K is far, far too high. I haven't done the full sums (and of course it could be calibrated at whatever rate the Chancellor wanted), but I'd guess it would probably be around 15% at that level.
    You think at a level which is 80% of the value when you start paying higher rate tax that they would be paying less than the current basic rate? I can't see where you get that idea from as it would result in less money coming into the treasury. Dont forget 40k a year is in top 25% of earners in the country
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    edited May 2020

    R4 You and Yours covering the finances of care sector.

    "a financial wreck", before the virus struck.

    And yet the spin has been that it's all profiteering billionaires.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,869

    I did tackle BA when we went into lockdown by e mail as it impossible to get any sense any other way. However, they only offered me a voucher as their flight was still scheduled on the 12th May to Vancouver, return on the 25th May. A week or so ago I received an e mail from BA confirming they had cancelled both flights and referred me to my booking app.

    The app only allows for you to apply for a voucher and it is very difficult to actually see where you apply for a refund which is the law at present, unless of course the EU do pass this change which you need to watch. I e mailed BA again and tried their customer services on the phone for over a couple of days and in the end, and after a one and a quarter hour wait, I did get through to a BA customer service rep working from her home in Bolton who processed the refund and was very helpful. Within 48 hours of my phone call with BA my full refund of £2,034.76 was back in my credit card account

    I had e mailed Nationwide at the same time I was having difficulty with BA re my credit card and they were very efficient contacting me within a couple of days confirming their responsibility under the credit card act and to keep in touch over progress with BA

    I would suggest to yourself and indeed anyone going on holiday over the next few months to keep an eye on when the flights etc are actually cancelled and the minute the cancellation takes place contact the company preferably by phone, or otherwise e mail and simultaneously contact your credit card issuer and seek to use the Section 75 credit card scheme, and maybe even more importantly if the EU really do pass this dreadful attack on European holidaymakers, to cover for any loss

    On the BA app you can seek out the flight status by keying in your destination and flight date and it will show if the flight is still active

    I hope this helps

    I had an absolute nightmare with Aeroflot. In the end I called their SPb office, spoke to somebody claiming to be a supervisor and told them I would paypal them 500€ if they processed my refund. Russian corruption is very efficient.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171
    kinabalu said:

    Oh and just to congratulate the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. Took a lot of stick but he made it. 100k tests. Tick.

    One could ask questions - (i) Is he marking his own homework? (ii) Was the target too hard and thus more important things have suffered because of it? (iii) Was the target too easy given it has been met? (iv) Is it not a trifle suspicious how it has been exactly met on the exact due day? (v) Just what generally was Hancock playing at with this whole "target" business? (vi) Was he - is he - using it to distract and hide something?

    But let's not do this. This is not a time to be churlish. The time to be churlish will be come the inevitable public inquiry next year into all aspects of the government's response to Covid-19.

    Question 1 - are you suggesting they are making the numbers up? I think you'll need evidence to support this. As with most deadlines, the work is finished immediately prior to the deadline. That indicates that effort was well managed.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    I want to do both. And for-profit companies work smarter and better than not-for-profit ones. Profit is not a bad thing.

    How much illegal moonshine alcohol do you buy from gangsters? I've personally always bought beer, wine and spirits that were legally produced as opposed to illegal unregulated gangster moonshine.
    There's still big business in dodgy vodka and the like.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    SUCCESSFUL MANUFACTURING OF CLINICAL-GRADE SARS-CoV-2 SPECIFIC T CELLS FOR ADOPTIVE CELL THERAPY (not my CAPS... but nonetheless, interesting.)
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20077487v1
    Background Adoptive therapy with SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells for COVID-19 has not been reported. The feasibility of rapid clinical-grade manufacturing of virus-specific T cells from convalescent donors has not been demonstrated for this or prior pandemics. Methods One unit of whole blood was collected from each convalescent donor following standard blood bank practices. After the plasma was separated and stored separately, the leukocytes were stimulated using overlapping peptides of SARS-CoV-2, covering the immunodominant sequence domains of the S protein and the complete sequence of the N and M proteins. Thereafter, functionally reactive cells were enriched overnight using an automated device capturing IFNγ-secreting cells. Findings From 1x10[9] leukocytes, 0.56 to 1.16x10[6] IFNγ+ T cells were produced from each of the first two donors. Most of the T cells (64% to 71%) were IFNγ+, with preferential enrichment of CD56+ T cells, effector memory T cells, and effector memory RA+ T cells. TCRVβ spectratyping revealed oligoclonal distribution, with over-representation of subfamilies including Vβ3, Vβ16 and Vβ17. With just two donors, the probability that a recipient in the same ethnic group would share at least one donor HLA allele or one haplotype could be as high as >90% and >30%, respectively. Interpretations This study is limited by small number of donors and absence of recipient data; however, crucial first proof-of-principle data are provided demonstrating the feasibility of clinical-grade production of SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells for urgent clinical use, conceivably with plasma therapy concurrently. Our data showing that virus-specific T cells can be detected easily after brief stimulation with SARS-CoV-2 specific peptides suggest that a parallel diagnostic assay can be developed alongside serology testing....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,932
    RobD said:

    We've been through this before. ;)
    And the result will be whether we see new PPE factories being opened in the coming months.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171

    And the result will be whether we see new PPE factories being opened in the coming months.
    Yeah, but your claim is that the government have yet to realise it. It's easy to see that they have.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,387
    This, my friends, will be our post transition trade agreement on January 1st. This is it.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/freight-transport-in-the-context-of-covid-19-joint-statement-by-the-united-kingdom-france-and-ireland

    It makes Neville Chamberlain s piece of paper look like the Encyclopedia Brittanica.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    There's still big business in dodgy vodka and the like.
    Is the proportion of vodka made and sold by criminal gangs higher or lower than the proportion of vodka made and sold by lawful regulated business like Diageo?

    Is the proportion of vodka made and sold by criminal gangs higher or lower than the proportion of marijuana made and sold by criminal gangs?
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    I want to do both. And for-profit companies work smarter and better than not-for-profit ones. Profit is not a bad thing.

    How much illegal moonshine alcohol do you buy from gangsters? I've personally always bought beer, wine and spirits that were legally produced as opposed to illegal unregulated gangster moonshine.
    I believe in profit motivation as much as you seem to. I was merely suggesting that prioritising motivation was a determining factor in profit or not. There is also a grey aspect - how much profit?

    I have never knowingly bought anything from a gangster - pure as the driven snow in that respect.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    It is a classic example of a stretch goal.

    It's interesting to listen to the rather blurry criticism of the strategy - see BBC reports etc - from inside the system. It sounds rather as if the approach that the system would prefer would be a carefully designed testing structure, then order the right testing facilities to match. All very waterfall.

    The public administartion organisations in this country love waterfall planing.

    The other approach is to say - if we have a too many tests, LOL. So we just keep increasing testing capacity. Who gets tested can be changed relatively quickly,

    I would also presume that it was a case of "setup new facility x. Debug it. Create y facilities to the same formula". That kind of rollout can end up looking quite... exponential.
    I notice the Guardian had a good moan about private companies been involved....you know like how Germany does it...but funny they didn't mention that.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Alistair said:

    Oh yeah, Biden being a disaster zone of a candidate is another reason I am being cautious.

    Trump colluded with a foreign government to try and frame Biden. If he were a disaster zone of a candidate then Trump wouldn't have taken that risk.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    Also interesting paper on the Australian (pre)pandemic response:

    Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.25.20080127v1.full.pdf
    ...Australia took an early and precautionary approach to COVID-19. On 1 February, when China was the only country reporting uncontained transmission, Australian authorities restricted all travel from mainland China to Australia, in order to reduce the risk of importation of the virus. Only Australian citizens and residents (and their dependants) were permitted to travel from China to Australia. These individuals were advised to self-quarantine for 14 days from their date of arrival Further border measures, including enhanced testing and provision of additional advice, were placed on arrivals from other countries, based on a risk-assessment tool developed in early February...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768

    I wouldn't take it personally. By all accounts anyone who tries to buy stuff from Chinese suppliers without knowing who they're buying from and how to make sure they get their money's worth is going to get robbed, Western, Chinese or otherwise.
    Its not China to blame for the fact that eveyone is reliant on supplies from China

    Rather its those countries that have been prepared to cease making stuff and import it from the place they can get it cheapest.

    This is how the market works though you would have thought PB Tories would be familiar with Capitalism
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171

    I notice the Guardian had a good moan about private companies been involved....you know like how Germany does it...but funny they didn't mention that.
    Unbelievable. The private sector is the reason Germany was so successful at testing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171
    DougSeal said:

    Trump colluded with a foreign government to try and frame Biden. If he were a disaster zone of a candidate then Trump wouldn't have taken that risk.
    I thought he was found not guilty.

    :D
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    RobD said:

    I thought he was found not guilty.

    :D
    Oh - sorry - forgot he'd been totally exonerated. Bigly so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,544
    DavidL said:

    I am really not sure how you can say that when yesterday we had 6k new cases. If a lockdown stopped the spread completely then maybe but it clearly doesn't just as the government models said it wouldn't. What I think we need to focus a lot more attention on is where those 6k people got infected, where are the weak points and what can we do about them if we come out of lockdown.
    The weak point is probably the fact that large numbers of people are still working as normal.
    Some are essential. But others aren't really. I see quite a.bit of construction work going on.A vast amount of deliveries, and there has been no social distancing enforced or even enabled at my brother's sorting office where postal workers assemble before firing off in all directions to visit most of the houses in the country. I haven't witnessed any enforcement of the rules and some ignoring them flagrantly.
    Truth is that we didn't lockdown in any real sense. It is no surprise we have thousands of daily new infections
    This was a political choice which one may approve of or not.
    But it was a strategy that never was going to stamp this thing out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,347

    No, your figure of 35% at £40K is far, far too high. I haven't done the full sums (and of course it could be calibrated at whatever rate the Chancellor wanted), but I'd guess it would probably be around 15% at that level.
    It's about 20% at the moment. Anyone who pays a net rate of 35% is earning six figures.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171
    DougSeal said:

    Oh - sorry - forgot he'd been totally exonerated. Bigly so.
    It was huge moment, beautiful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,049
    This suggests an antibody response does occur in even mildly affected patients (and even when it doesn't, viral clearance can take place):

    Neutralizing antibody response in mild COVID-19
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0325-2
    This preprint reports robust induction of SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralizing antibodies in 94% of 175 patients with clinically mild COVID-19 within 2 weeks of symptom onset. Compared with young patients, middle-aged and older patients in this cohort had higher titres of neutralizing and binding antibodies. As older patients are generally considered at greater risk of severe disease, the robust humoral responses in this cohort may explain their apparent protection. Of note, 10 of 175 patients recovered without developing detectable neutralizing antibody titres, suggesting that antiviral binding antibodies and cellular immune responses can both result in convalescence. Longitudinal observations in addition to stringent clinical and immunological characterization are needed to further assess the specificity and relative contribution to protection of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,932
    RobD said:

    Yeah, but your claim is that the government have yet to realise it. It's easy to see that they have.
    I didn't claim anything I said it was doubtful and it is doubtful.

    If its not then perhaps you could tell us when new PPE factories will come into production in this country.
This discussion has been closed.