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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thinking the Unthinkable – how’s this going to be paid for?

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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846

    Andrew said:


    Nuance....it was clear the 100k a day target came from the claim Germany can do about that and South Korea probably can if needed.

    But the South Korean approach is far superior to the German.


    Possibly, but as usual: lots of differences. They've clearly done a great job though.

    Huge amounts of tests was never a really big element in Korea btw - I looked at the stats a little while back, iirc they never did more than 100k in a week, let alone a day. That's about the same as Denmark (1/10th the population).
    I didn't say Korea did 100k, but they can do that if required. It was more like 25k a day peak.

    The big thing though is that their contract tracing app automatically prioritises people based on a number of factors. And it is fast to get results.
    You still make the assumption enough will use the app to make it useful. Personally i will be surprised if 50% have it and use it
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,792
    edited May 2020

    Argh

    FF43 said:

    I think the testing thing is OK. So maybe it's only really 50 000 a day. That's a big improvement. Great. Now think about test effectiveness and building it up further.

    It's evidence that media management and saving face is more important to them than honest information about the reality of the situation. That's a terrible message to send to all the people under pressure across the country who might feel tempted to massage their figures so they look better.

    It's one of the main reasons China reacted to this late and that we're in this situation. It's a disaster for the government to undermine their own trustworthiness in this way.

    If they'd held their hand up, acknowledged the failure to meet the target, explained why, for reasonable reasons it was missed (mainly the failure of the antibody tests, say) and pointed to what had been achieved and the lessons learned, I would have been prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt. A few days ago I said that the 100,000 figure itself was arbitrary and would give credit for major progress towards an order of magnitude increase.

    But, this?
    I guess you are right. Given all the other crap going on, some of it caused by this government, fiddling the test target figures feels like a lesser battle. Especially when the level of testing is basically a good news story.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940

    Mr. Meeks, doesn't matter either way.

    If aliens are nice they'd help us. If not, they'd obliterate/enslave us.

    Of course according to Ancient Aliens they have already been here and have helped humankind for thousands of years.
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    ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Does anyone know of a graph of daily deaths by region of those with COVID? We keep seeing the hospitalisations graph in the daily presser but I can't recall seeing this. We see London markedly falling but not much elsewhere, so I was wondering if this is just hospitalisations or if deaths are now also equally spread across the country.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    Pagan2 said:

    Andrew said:


    Nuance....it was clear the 100k a day target came from the claim Germany can do about that and South Korea probably can if needed.

    But the South Korean approach is far superior to the German.


    Possibly, but as usual: lots of differences. They've clearly done a great job though.

    Huge amounts of tests was never a really big element in Korea btw - I looked at the stats a little while back, iirc they never did more than 100k in a week, let alone a day. That's about the same as Denmark (1/10th the population).
    I didn't say Korea did 100k, but they can do that if required. It was more like 25k a day peak.

    The big thing though is that their contract tracing app automatically prioritises people based on a number of factors. And it is fast to get results.
    You still make the assumption enough will use the app to make it useful. Personally i will be surprised if 50% have it and use it
    I'm using the ZOE app, but I very much doubt I'll use anything emanating from GCHQ. I don't think the Chinese will bother with me, but I don't trust the British Government.
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