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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thinking the Unthinkable – how’s this going to be paid for?

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  • Options
    SussexJamesSussexJames Posts: 86
    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...


    You seem to forget houses find it very difficult to up sticks and move abroad.

    It's why property and land taxes are easy to tax as they are harder to avoid than a lot of other taxes.
    Sure - but dig out 2 levels of basement, add an extension and spend thousands on renovations and your house is worth not a penny more in current tax world.

    You then pay the same as your neighbour who hasn't redecorated or improved and has an asset worth half yours.

    If you improve your property with an extension outwardsw, upwards or downwards, you'll get assessed to see if it needs rebanding for council tax. So it will be worth a penny - or a bit - more.
    Now, if you're advocating that the top council tax band is too restricted, that's another discussion.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    It seems to me from the discussion on this thread that there's really very little we can do about the predicament we are in.

    We have been engaged on is a sort of socialism on steroids.

    A vast subsidy of the least productive part of our society on the one hand. and an agressive, determined and sustained throttling of the most productive part on the other.

    Why would anybody be surprised a the result? complete penury, extreme misery and possible social and economic breakdown.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Topping, it's a sinister trend.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...


    You seem to forget houses find it very difficult to up sticks and move abroad.

    It's why property and land taxes are easy to tax as they are harder to avoid than a lot of other taxes.
    Sure - but dig out 2 levels of basement, add an extension and spend thousands on renovations and your house is worth not a penny more in current tax world.

    You then pay the same as your neighbour who hasn't redecorated or improved and has an asset worth half yours.

    If you improve your property with an extension outwardsw, upwards or downwards, you'll get assessed to see if it needs rebanding for council tax. So it will be worth a penny - or a bit - more.
    Now, if you're advocating that the top council tax band is too restricted, that's another discussion.
    BiB - Happy to be corrected on this, but I don't think you pay. When you sell the property, then it gets reassessed for CT. At least that's how I understand the system.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    RobD said:

    isam said:
    Are you claiming it isn't an epidemic?
    I thought he was being funny by not using ‘pandemic’ but I guess if he’s just referring to the U.K. it correct.

    Back on the starting blocks for you Herr Trigger!
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    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,701
    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Oh and just to congratulate the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. Took a lot of stick but he made it. 100k tests. Tick.
    One could ask questions - (i) Is he marking his own homework? (ii) Was the target too hard and thus more important things have suffered because of it? (iii) Was the target too easy given it has been met? (iv) Is it not a trifle suspicious how it has been exactly met on the exact due day? (v) Just what generally was Hancock playing at with this whole "target" business? (vi) Was he - is he - using it to distract and hide something?
    But let's not do this. This is not a time to be churlish. The time to be churlish will be come the inevitable public inquiry next year into all aspects of the government's response to Covid-19.

    Question 1 - are you suggesting they are making the numbers up? I think you'll need evidence to support this. As with most deadlines, the work is finished immediately prior to the deadline. That indicates that effort was well managed.
    "Managed" being the key word. Or "manipulated". But no matter. It gives the media a story.....
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,355
    Cyclefree said:

    The idea that even the poorest should have to pay income tax due to some moral need for all to contribute is a bit weird. Everyone pays VAT and other universal taxes already.

    The poor may pay less VAT because more of what they spend money on is exempt from it. But when they do it is highly regressive because that is the nature of any sales tax.

    The argument is that everyone should contribute because it avoids (a) the free rider problem; and (b) it makes for better accountability. But it is the same argument - in reverse - as that made by some rich people: I don’t use these services so why should I pay for them. I don’t have much truck with that. But if universality is important then there is an argument that it should apply to all citizens. That is the argument behind having universal welfare benefits after all. If these are available to all, people will be more willing to pay for them. If they are only available to a few then those who pay may be less willing to pay for them. This problem is already seen in the US and could come here if we’re not careful.
    I too think that everyone should pay income tax, albeit at a nominal level at the lower end. If you are not paying anything at all you are excluded from the national conversation about "taxpayers money". This does not help to foster togetherness.

    Also agree on the great benefits of universality. Not sure if it's affordable in all cases however.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,027

    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...


    You seem to forget houses find it very difficult to up sticks and move abroad.

    It's why property and land taxes are easy to tax as they are harder to avoid than a lot of other taxes.
    Sure - but dig out 2 levels of basement, add an extension and spend thousands on renovations and your house is worth not a penny more in current tax world.

    You then pay the same as your neighbour who hasn't redecorated or improved and has an asset worth half yours.

    If you improve your property with an extension outwardsw, upwards or downwards, you'll get assessed to see if it needs rebanding for council tax. So it will be worth a penny - or a bit - more.
    Now, if you're advocating that the top council tax band is too restricted, that's another discussion.
    The rebanding won't however occur until the house is sold.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TOPPING said:

    These fcukers spend oodles on infra red sights and top of the range body armour but won't pay an alterations shop to take up the hems of their breeks (I'm assuming that they're too useless to do it themselves)?

    https://twitter.com/youwouldknow/status/1256184749351190528?s=20

    Amazing so many left handers.
    Do people generally use their dominant hand? (or mainly their dominant hand). Instinctively I assume so, but then again, I've only ever fired an air pistol...
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    TOPPING said:

    Fell into a right miserable funk on Wednesday and it shows no sign of lifting on what is now day 45 in the cage. Management meeting this lunchtime just reinforces the misery - CEO looking at options to start resuming "normal" in June maybe.

    So a best best case of me leaving the hamster cage by day 76 though if "normal" is the split shifts we ran for all of a week and a half I'm not getting out of here until day 90. So this is maybe half distance possibly.

    Fuck.

    Are you able to exercise?
    And if so, do you use a wheel, or an exercise ball?
  • Options
    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...


    You seem to forget houses find it very difficult to up sticks and move abroad.

    It's why property and land taxes are easy to tax as they are harder to avoid than a lot of other taxes.
    Sure - but dig out 2 levels of basement, add an extension and spend thousands on renovations and your house is worth not a penny more in current tax world.

    You then pay the same as your neighbour who hasn't redecorated or improved and has an asset worth half yours.

    If you improve your property with an extension outwardsw, upwards or downwards, you'll get assessed to see if it needs rebanding for council tax. So it will be worth a penny - or a bit - more.
    Now, if you're advocating that the top council tax band is too restricted, that's another discussion.
    LOL - unless you knock a house down to rebuild or subdivide your property hasn't been rebanded since 1991. Just the 30 years ago..
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,355
    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...
    VAT is your baby for that. It's an unbelievably efficient tax. It's the absolute governor.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    That is quite bizarre. If I was thinking of doing one of my silly satirical type posts lampooning 'Hancock's Target' I would probably do something like that - liken it in deadpan language to JFK and the moonshot and things equally OTT and absurd and ridiculous. And here we have a supposedly loyal Tory MP taking the piss out of it in just that way! Is Freeman for the chop now, I wonder? And does it indicate a growing contempt for Hancock on the backbenches?
    Oh, come on. He's not saying that Hancock's achievement is comparable to the moon landings, just that the principle is that same. He set what looked like an almost impossible target and has effectively met it under difficult circumstances.

    Millions of self-help books are sold every year on the principle that you can learn from the techniques used by great leaders. I don't think Freeman is suggesting anything beyond that.
    We must have different absurdity thresholds, you and I. My genuine initial reaction was to look for the blue tick because it must surely be a piss take.

    Pleased for Matt though. I do like him. Not sure how effective he is but I do like him.
    Did you even bother to read the article? It is well written.
    I confess I didn't. But "well written" always helps.

    This is quite well written too -

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2019

    Don't you think?
    It is indeed, clear and concise bullet points.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the thread seems to focus on tax rises, from inheritance tax, to higher corporation and inheritance tax to even forcing the poorest to pay income tax again.

    As Margaret Thatcher said 'No, No, No' we have a Tory government not a Labour government and I doubt even Starmer would go as far as the tax bombshells Cyclefree is floating here. Especially when we need to grow the economy once lockdown ends not hammer it with tax rises

    We will need to grow the economy and I take your point on tax squashing demand. However, the government - indeed all governments - are going to spend £fucktons. The UK is fiscally sovereign - we can print money which is a distinct advantage to France and Germany. So we either find people to sell our debt to - and there will be a lot of competition - or we print cash.

    Either way your No No No will very likely become Yes Yes Yes. The point where cash is needed to keep poor people from starving, you will I assume be saying no no no...
    So we print cash.

    An awful suggestion normally especially when facing inflation. But we are facing a pandemic not seen for a century and deflation. So really right now printing money is the worst solution we can think of except all others.
    You and I know that. I await HYUFD coming on to defend Keith Josephism because printing money makes Tory hedge fund donors poorer which is absolutely what all these new Tory voters in places like Stockton-on-Tees are concerned about.

    I think this will quickly turn into rampant cakeism from HYUFDist loons. 'Yes you peons voted Tory and we thank you for that. We're going to enact policies which will sadly make some of you poor and hungry to make the fat and wealthy fatter and wealthier. They matter to us, you do not. Don't worry though - to pacify you we're going to say every day how we are controlling immigration by leaving the border wide open and how we're Getting Brexit Done. Whats that? You're having to eat grass? But you said that you would be *happy* to eat grass if thats what it took.'
    By next year the transition period will end and we will slam the door firmly shut on free movement from the EU to the UK, so working class Northern and Midlands Brexit and Boris voters will get what they want with Brexit done and Priti Patel 's points system replacing an open door to immigration from Eastern Europe
    All the fruit picking and hotel cleaning jobs that they want.
    I thought I'd read that the Immigration Bit had been quietly dropped. For now, anyway.
    Still yet to see all those Brexiteers stampeding for the jobs they said the foreigners were stealing. Heard some clown on LBC the other day moaning that there was no way he was taking a job given if he did the government took 60p out of every pound off his benefits. His example was if he did 8 hours at £8 an hour he only got £3.20, arithmetic obviously not his strongpoint. However shows there are many fat and happy on their benefits and have no principles of trying to help themselves or understand that if they actually work they should get less benefits, shocking.
    You should have a closer look - one of the problems is that the benefit cuts are not perfectly synchronised with earning some money. So you get a job and have to inform them to reduce benefits at the right moment (get that wrong and get in trouble). If the casual job ends, changing back to the old level of benefits is not automatic either.

    After about 1 hour of looking at this issue, most people become a fan of a Universal Basic Income.
    For sure that would be a much better solution
    If you are interested, my EvulMasterplan looks like this

    1) Abolish the tax free allowance for income tax and NI.
    2) UBI of the former basic rate of tax paid by the government, monthly, directly to a specified account.
    3) Automatic assumed payment of minimum NI included in that.
    4) UBI can never be taxed, withdrawn etc. Everyone gets it
    5) All earrings above UBI are taxed.
    6) Additional benefits for disability etc. But these should be rare.
    Sounds nice and simple solution , what would they do with all the parasitic lawyers and accountants that do the tax evasion though.
    Expand Rockall into a massive new naval base as an unpaid workfare program. With teaspoons.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1256193931001434112?s=20

    Still sub 50% for the Tories, poor effort.
    Disaster.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    On the plus side for Sweden someone has come back to life on the 17th of April, yesterday they had 80 Covid deaths recorded for that day, today it is 79.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Also @kinabalu good charts in that link you gave. Especially Figure 2 showing that the deficit 1.2% of GDP is the lowest the UK has had since 2001/02 which thankfully leaves us in a much better position going into this crisis than in 2007/08 when look how close the deficit was to the yellow line in that chart - and how it had been that close since 2002/03.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1256193931001434112?s=20

    Still sub 50% for the Tories, poor effort.
    Disaster.
    The Tories are now the party of the 48%.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    TOPPING said:

    These fcukers spend oodles on infra red sights and top of the range body armour but won't pay an alterations shop to take up the hems of their breeks (I'm assuming that they're too useless to do it themselves)?

    https://twitter.com/youwouldknow/status/1256184749351190528?s=20

    Amazing so many left handers.
    Do people generally use their dominant hand? (or mainly their dominant hand). Instinctively I assume so, but then again, I've only ever fired an air pistol...
    Yes plus some weapons are not able to be used by lefties as they eject the cartridge away from the body if held by a rightie and into your face if by a leftie. Although some can be amended to be used by lefties.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    edited May 2020
    7 day hospital death trend for England:



    We're looking at ~ 350 deaths in hospitals within the next few days and hopefully below 300 within the next 7 days. The infection rate should now be low enough to implement a test and separate policy.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I'm watching Kellyanne Conway - her face seems to be turning to Trump color, unless it's the lights used on the north lawn TV site.
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    kinabalu said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...
    VAT is your baby for that. It's an unbelievably efficient tax. It's the absolute governor.
    And utterly avoidable if you so choose :D
  • Options
    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Also @kinabalu good charts in that link you gave. Especially Figure 2 showing that the deficit 1.2% of GDP is the lowest the UK has had since 2001/02 which thankfully leaves us in a much better position going into this crisis than in 2007/08 when look how close the deficit was to the yellow line in that chart - and how it had been that close since 2002/03.

    Imagine this had hit in 2009 - we would have been rooked.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,355

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    That is quite bizarre. If I was thinking of doing one of my silly satirical type posts lampooning 'Hancock's Target' I would probably do something like that - liken it in deadpan language to JFK and the moonshot and things equally OTT and absurd and ridiculous. And here we have a supposedly loyal Tory MP taking the piss out of it in just that way! Is Freeman for the chop now, I wonder? And does it indicate a growing contempt for Hancock on the backbenches?
    Oh, come on. He's not saying that Hancock's achievement is comparable to the moon landings, just that the principle is that same. He set what looked like an almost impossible target and has effectively met it under difficult circumstances.

    Millions of self-help books are sold every year on the principle that you can learn from the techniques used by great leaders. I don't think Freeman is suggesting anything beyond that.
    We must have different absurdity thresholds, you and I. My genuine initial reaction was to look for the blue tick because it must surely be a piss take.

    Pleased for Matt though. I do like him. Not sure how effective he is but I do like him.
    Did you even bother to read the article? It is well written.
    I confess I didn't. But "well written" always helps.

    This is quite well written too -

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2019

    Don't you think?
    It is indeed, clear and concise bullet points.
    I thought so too.

    And what did you make of that definition of what constitutes sound public finances? -

    The TFEU obliges EU Member States to comply with budgetary discipline by respecting two criteria: a deficit to GDP ratio and a debt to GDP ratio not exceeding reference values of 3% and 60% respectively, as defined in the Protocol on the EDP annexed to the TFEU.

    Sound broadly reasonable?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,455
    HYUFD said:
    One of the results I am anticipating from this virus episode is putting the Green Party back to a respectable showing.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    Eyeballing it that looks like a downward trend to me but bumpy. We'll have to see what continues to happen though.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    What's your reading of how things will proceed in Sweden? I think it's going to go very badly.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    One of the results I am anticipating from this virus episode is putting the Green Party back to a respectable showing.
    Ah, more splits on the left. Wonderful! :smiley:
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,795
    Alistair said:

    On the plus side for Sweden someone has come back to life on the 17th of April, yesterday they had 80 Covid deaths recorded for that day, today it is 79.

    Swedish data seems to be both lumpy and laggy. We probably won't know until next week whether this week is up, flat or down.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    They really must be chewing the carpets at the news channels. The more hyperbolic their attacks get the more people ignore them.
    See also BBC Scotland.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    They are his people
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    That is quite bizarre. If I was thinking of doing one of my silly satirical type posts lampooning 'Hancock's Target' I would probably do something like that - liken it in deadpan language to JFK and the moonshot and things equally OTT and absurd and ridiculous. And here we have a supposedly loyal Tory MP taking the piss out of it in just that way! Is Freeman for the chop now, I wonder? And does it indicate a growing contempt for Hancock on the backbenches?
    Oh, come on. He's not saying that Hancock's achievement is comparable to the moon landings, just that the principle is that same. He set what looked like an almost impossible target and has effectively met it under difficult circumstances.

    Millions of self-help books are sold every year on the principle that you can learn from the techniques used by great leaders. I don't think Freeman is suggesting anything beyond that.
    We must have different absurdity thresholds, you and I. My genuine initial reaction was to look for the blue tick because it must surely be a piss take.

    Pleased for Matt though. I do like him. Not sure how effective he is but I do like him.
    Did you even bother to read the article? It is well written.
    I confess I didn't. But "well written" always helps.

    This is quite well written too -

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2019

    Don't you think?
    It is indeed, clear and concise bullet points.
    I thought so too.

    And what did you make of that definition of what constitutes sound public finances? -

    The TFEU obliges EU Member States to comply with budgetary discipline by respecting two criteria: a deficit to GDP ratio and a debt to GDP ratio not exceeding reference values of 3% and 60% respectively, as defined in the Protocol on the EDP annexed to the TFEU.

    Sound broadly reasonable?
    That's the TFEU definition and no it does not.

    It says that you can be running a 2.9% deficit during a boom time so long as your debt isn't high without giving any thought as to what happens when the next inevitable recession comes after the boom - which is precisely what happened in 2007/08.

    This may be breaking news to you but I don't agree 100% with everything in the TFEU ;)
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,355
    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...
    VAT is your baby for that. It's an unbelievably efficient tax. It's the absolute governor.
    And utterly avoidable if you so choose :D
    Not in most cases. And the collection mechanism is a thing of beauty.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    One of the results I am anticipating from this virus episode is putting the Green Party back to a respectable showing.
    I thought it would coincide with Corbyn being replaced by Starmer.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1256193931001434112?s=20

    Still sub 50% for the Tories, poor effort.
    Tories more than Labour, LDs and Greens combined
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    They really must be chewing the carpets at the news channels. The more hyperbolic their attacks get the more people ignore them.
    Not really. It's their job to hold the government to account. People can then make their own minds up as to how well the govt is doing.

    Of course there will be plenty supporting the government who are keen not to rock the boat and try something new while the pandemic is ongoing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited May 2020
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    One of the results I am anticipating from this virus episode is putting the Green Party back to a respectable showing.
    The Greens are the main gainers on this poll since Starmer's election alongside the Tories
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    What's your reading of how things will proceed in Sweden? I think it's going to go very badly.
    I change my mind every day about Sweden. Today I don’t even know what to think. Their data is all over the place
    Their data can lag for up to 14 days, either by incompetence or policy the statistics in Sweden don't make sense.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    What's your reading of how things will proceed in Sweden? I think it's going to go very badly.
    Get back to me in a week.

    Two days ago I thought Sweden was going to be pretty smug about how it had handled things. Now my gut is telling mw they are going to stabalise at a high ongoing death count and have to pivot to harder lockdown.

    But we are dealing with laggy data and this may just be a blip and in a couple of days time everything will still be on a downward trend.

    So, I don't know. I certainly wouldn't be gambling any money of the situation.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
  • Options
    SussexJamesSussexJames Posts: 86
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kamski said:

    Whether charging for going to the doctor is a good idea or not I don't know, but the argument that people can afford to pay vets so why not doctors is really silly.

    Also weird that so many suggestions but no mention of a carbon tax, which is anyway a no-brainer even without Covid.

    Why? People happily pay a call out charge for a sick pet but faint with horror at doing the same for a sick child. Which is more important?

    Carbon taxes are a very good idea. But if they are going to be effective in stopping behaviour we do not want they will not raise much money. Or not as much as we may need. I would also tax airline fuel (assuming there are any airlines left) and raise Air Passenger Duty.
    Tax on residential property. Tap into the £6 trillion. Do you like the sound of that?
    One of the key elements that people overlook on taxes is are they cost efficient and easy to collect accurately ...


    You seem to forget houses find it very difficult to up sticks and move abroad.

    It's why property and land taxes are easy to tax as they are harder to avoid than a lot of other taxes.
    Sure - but dig out 2 levels of basement, add an extension and spend thousands on renovations and your house is worth not a penny more in current tax world.

    You then pay the same as your neighbour who hasn't redecorated or improved and has an asset worth half yours.

    If you improve your property with an extension outwardsw, upwards or downwards, you'll get assessed to see if it needs rebanding for council tax. So it will be worth a penny - or a bit - more.
    Now, if you're advocating that the top council tax band is too restricted, that's another discussion.
    LOL - unless you knock a house down to rebuild or subdivide your property hasn't been rebanded since 1991. Just the 30 years ago..
    That's a general rebanding assessment. If your property is extended, you may get rebanded.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/council-tax-band-changes
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2020

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    Eyeballing it that looks like a downward trend to me but bumpy. We'll have to see what continues to happen though.
    Grey line is 7 day average, Orange line is my centroid normally spread average, blue is the daily figures



    It definitely was going down. I wouldn't like to say what it is doing now.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    One of the results I am anticipating from this virus episode is putting the Green Party back to a respectable showing.
    Yes but at the expense of the Limpdems by the looks.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:
    The 31% who ‘know’ aliens don’t exist are the stupid ones. The universe contains 100 BILLION galaxies each with 100 BILLION stars, so there are trillions of planets.

    It is extremely improbable ours is the only planet showing signs of life.

    And of course there may be trillions of parallel universes. Or an infinite number.
    Or we could all be in a computer simulation.

    But then there would be aliens, I suppose. :D
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
    HYUFD said:

    They are his people
    In other words We SHOULD negotiate with terrorists when they're my terrorists.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2020
    IF Trump is at that point when up to a fifth of Americans are losing their jobs, well.

    Biden? that's their guy to take down their bitterest enemy ever?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    Eyeballing it that looks like a downward trend to me but bumpy. We'll have to see what continues to happen though.
    Grey line is 7 day average, Orange line is my centroid normally spread average



    It definitely was going down. I wouldn't like to say what it is doing now.
    Agreed. Even with those lines it looks like it is going down to me but we can't be certain. Once laggy data is added in the descent could be it could be a plateau or it could even be rising once more. Its hard to know at this stage.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    They really must be chewing the carpets at the news channels. The more hyperbolic their attacks get the more people ignore them.
    See also BBC Scotland.
    I find BBC Scotland quite sycophantic tbh, but I wouldn't deny that Nicola has had a fairly good crisis despite the chaos and incompetence all around her. I thought Alex Bell's piece was more than a bit harsh.
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    blairfblairf Posts: 98
    Ref header. This is a once in a hundred year chance to not tinker but totally reform.

    1.NI/Tax unified and as others said. Ditch the breaks... all of them. Pensioners, self employed the lot.
    2. VAT on everything, no exceptions. tampons, bread, books the lot.
    3. Pensions. part of 1, just get rid of the allowances all together.
    4. Land value tax. it really isn't hard. Ref Korea.
    5. Abolish stamp duties and rates. Part of 4.
    6. Escalate the sin taxes, fuel, fags, booze, gambling, carbon. All of them. you want to do bad things feel free but you're paying for it.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    As I understand it, two things are happening in Sweden, in Stockholm and surrounding county the outbreak has peaked and is now reducing, but in the rest of the country it is still growing slowly.

    The Swedish althoratys think that 25% or slightly over of the Stockholm population has had it and is now there for immune, and this combined with the mostly voluntary reduction in scochale contact, has brought R to under 1, without the hospitals being overrun.

    Outside the capitally, R is still over 1, and thfor growing but rise is slow, so the hospitals will likely not be overrun.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    felix said:
    Perhaps he's going for the Michael Howard approach of losing with competence.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    They are his people
    In other words We SHOULD negotiate with terrorists when they're my terrorists.
    The Americans have always had a love-hate relationship with terrorists. Who do you think supported the IRA?
  • Options
    blairfblairf Posts: 98
    MaxPB said:

    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    What's your reading of how things will proceed in Sweden? I think it's going to go very badly.
    I change my mind every day about Sweden. Today I don’t even know what to think. Their data is all over the place
    Their data can lag for up to 14 days, either by incompetence or policy the statistics in Sweden don't make sense.
    I was talking to a major investment bank who have employed an army of their own epidemiologists to try and get a jump on government actions and their impacts on the markets. they are all working nicely... except Sweden. go figure.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited May 2020
    blairf said:

    Ref header. This is a once in a hundred year chance to not tinker but totally reform.

    1.NI/Tax unified and as others said. Ditch the breaks... all of them. Pensioners, self employed the lot.
    2. VAT on everything, no exceptions. tampons, bread, books the lot.
    3. Pensions. part of 1, just get rid of the allowances all together.
    4. Land value tax. it really isn't hard. Ref Korea.
    5. Abolish stamp duties and rates. Part of 4.
    6. Escalate the sin taxes, fuel, fags, booze, gambling, carbon. All of them. you want to do bad things feel free but you're paying for it.

    National Insurance should be ringfenced as solely for state pensions, the NHS and contributions based JSA
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    What's your reading of how things will proceed in Sweden? I think it's going to go very badly.
    I change my mind every day about Sweden. Today I don’t even know what to think. Their data is all over the place
    Their data can lag for up to 14 days, either by incompetence or policy the statistics in Sweden don't make sense.
    Here is the change in counts for daily deaths from the 17th of April to the 30th of April for Sweden

    -1,2,1,2,2,1,6,5,8,8,5,7,15,9

    So for 8 days Sweden's death data gets signficant additions and then minor changes for another 7 before stabalising.

    Haven't tracked their ICU data with the same care so can't tell you how much the most recent figures will rise.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,823
    Welcome news for addicts of Euro-poli-drama:

    Netflix Boards Danish Political Drama ‘Borgen’ For New Season, Adds All Seasons to Platform
    https://variety.com/2020/tv/global/netflix-borgen-drama-dr-2022-1234592836/

    Season 12... the battle between the Moderate Centrists and their new rivals, the Centrist Moderates.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,369
    I am still chuckling about Corbyn being deceived by his own election team.it really is lorralorralaughs.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited May 2020
    Are the NHS death counters having the day off?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:
    Perhaps he's going for the Michael Howard approach of losing with competence.
    I should imagine the Corbynites are loving it - indeed they may even be trolling the polling companies!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:
    The 31% who ‘know’ aliens don’t exist are the stupid ones. The universe contains 100 BILLION galaxies each with 100 BILLION stars, so there are trillions of planets.

    It is extremely improbable ours is the only planet showing signs of life.

    And of course there may be trillions of parallel universes. Or an infinite number.
    Life maybe, intelligent life who knows
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:
    The 31% who ‘know’ aliens don’t exist are the stupid ones. The universe contains 100 BILLION galaxies each with 100 BILLION stars, so there are trillions of planets.

    It is extremely improbable ours is the only planet showing signs of life.

    And of course there may be trillions of parallel universes. Or an infinite number.
    It seems mathematically impossible that aliens don't exist, indeed there are probably millions of them. Whether we will ever have any meaningful interaction with them given the time and space involved is a much more difficult question to which the provisional answer has to be "no".
    But still they come...
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    blairf said:

    Ref header. This is a once in a hundred year chance to not tinker but totally reform.

    1.NI/Tax unified and as others said. Ditch the breaks... all of them. Pensioners, self employed the lot.
    2. VAT on everything, no exceptions. tampons, bread, books the lot.
    3. Pensions. part of 1, just get rid of the allowances all together.
    4. Land value tax. it really isn't hard. Ref Korea.
    5. Abolish stamp duties and rates. Part of 4.
    6. Escalate the sin taxes, fuel, fags, booze, gambling, carbon. All of them. you want to do bad things feel free but you're paying for it.

    I would agree with all of that, except the last one. Instead I would add legalise and tax, Cannabis, prostitution, and so on.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited May 2020
    felix said:
    Starmer has got about the same bounce IDS got in late 2001 at the moment, indeed IDS probably got more. However still a long way to go
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2020
    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    What's your reading of how things will proceed in Sweden? I think it's going to go very badly.
    I change my mind every day about Sweden. Today I don’t even know what to think. Their data is all over the place
    The data is slow.

    The numbers real world reaction to policy changes is also slow.

    As a result you have to make slow decisions.

    Just chill for a while.

    Use your chilling out time to read Thinking In Systems: A Primer
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited May 2020

    felix said:
    Perhaps he's going for the Michael Howard approach of losing with competence.
    One early 2004 Yougov poll had the Tories on 40% after Howard became leader

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    BigRich said:

    blairf said:

    Ref header. This is a once in a hundred year chance to not tinker but totally reform.

    1.NI/Tax unified and as others said. Ditch the breaks... all of them. Pensioners, self employed the lot.
    2. VAT on everything, no exceptions. tampons, bread, books the lot.
    3. Pensions. part of 1, just get rid of the allowances all together.
    4. Land value tax. it really isn't hard. Ref Korea.
    5. Abolish stamp duties and rates. Part of 4.
    6. Escalate the sin taxes, fuel, fags, booze, gambling, carbon. All of them. you want to do bad things feel free but you're paying for it.

    I would agree with all of that, except the last one. Instead I would add legalise and tax, Cannabis, prostitution, and so on.
    Prostitution is legal in this country so hard to legalise it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Are the NHS death counters having the day off?

    The England stats are already available. 352 deaths announced, 86% from the 7 days prior.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    Just back from my weekly shopping expedition. The new gap in supplies seems to be eggs - both Morrisons and the Co-op had run out.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Are the NHS death counters having the day off?

    Mayday mayday!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396

    HYUFD said:

    They are his people
    In other words We SHOULD negotiate with terrorists when they're my terrorists.
    The Americans have always had a love-hate relationship with terrorists. Who do you think supported the IRA?
    Gaddafi?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:
    Starmer has got about the same bounce IDS got in 2001 at the moment, indeed IDS probably got more. However still a long way to go
    It wasn't an entirely serious post tbf.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:
    The 31% who ‘know’ aliens don’t exist are the stupid ones. The universe contains 100 BILLION galaxies each with 100 BILLION stars, so there are trillions of planets.

    It is extremely improbable ours is the only planet showing signs of life.

    And of course there may be trillions of parallel universes. Or an infinite number.
    Life maybe, intelligent life who knows
    Bit like the Labour party then.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    edited May 2020
    slade said:

    Just back from my weekly shopping expedition. The new gap in supplies seems to be eggs - both Morrisons and the Co-op had run out.

    M&S too yesterday, but my local garage has them. However, they're requesting people bring their egg boxes back - I think that is the problem in the supply chain.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,355

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    That is quite bizarre. If I was thinking of doing one of my silly satirical type posts lampooning 'Hancock's Target' I would probably do something like that - liken it in deadpan language to JFK and the moonshot and things equally OTT and absurd and ridiculous. And here we have a supposedly loyal Tory MP taking the piss out of it in just that way! Is Freeman for the chop now, I wonder? And does it indicate a growing contempt for Hancock on the backbenches?
    Oh, come on. He's not saying that Hancock's achievement is comparable to the moon landings, just that the principle is that same. He set what looked like an almost impossible target and has effectively met it under difficult circumstances.

    Millions of self-help books are sold every year on the principle that you can learn from the techniques used by great leaders. I don't think Freeman is suggesting anything beyond that.
    We must have different absurdity thresholds, you and I. My genuine initial reaction was to look for the blue tick because it must surely be a piss take.

    Pleased for Matt though. I do like him. Not sure how effective he is but I do like him.
    Did you even bother to read the article? It is well written.
    I confess I didn't. But "well written" always helps.

    This is quite well written too -

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2019

    Don't you think?
    It is indeed, clear and concise bullet points.
    I thought so too.

    And what did you make of that definition of what constitutes sound public finances? -

    The TFEU obliges EU Member States to comply with budgetary discipline by respecting two criteria: a deficit to GDP ratio and a debt to GDP ratio not exceeding reference values of 3% and 60% respectively, as defined in the Protocol on the EDP annexed to the TFEU.

    Sound broadly reasonable?
    That's the TFEU definition and no it does not.

    It says that you can be running a 2.9% deficit during a boom time so long as your debt isn't high without giving any thought as to what happens when the next inevitable recession comes after the boom - which is precisely what happened in 2007/08.

    This may be breaking news to you but I don't agree 100% with everything in the TFEU ;)
    More the overall concept is what I thought might be interesting - how when assessing the state of a nation's public finances one looks at the level of deficit and of debt as a % of GDP.

    I suppose it's pretty obvious but, you know, I thought why not circulate because one or two people on here might not have a handle on this stuff like you and I have.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    They really must be chewing the carpets at the news channels. The more hyperbolic their attacks get the more people ignore them.
    See also BBC Scotland.
    I find BBC Scotland quite sycophantic tbh, but I wouldn't deny that Nicola has had a fairly good crisis despite the chaos and incompetence all around her. I thought Alex Bell's piece was more than a bit harsh.
    Obviously not sycophantic enough, according to a Survation poll the Scottish public give the SG a 70% rating for trustworthiness over the Corona virus v. 42% for the BBC.

    D'ye think Jackson's official complaint against the BBC for lack of SNPbadness is well advised?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,823
    Nissan shakes off virus woes with April rebound in China, sources say
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/01/business/corporate-business/nissan-shakes-off-virus-woes-april-rebound-china-sales/
    BEIJING – Vehicle sales by Nissan Motor Co. in China this month had almost recovered to the prior year’s level, after logging a coronavirus-related 44.9 percent plunge in March, two sources with knowledge of the automaker’s preliminary data have said.

    The data reinforces growing optimism that the world’s biggest car market is stabilizing fast as businesses return to normal in China, making it a rare bright spot as most dealerships in Europe and the United States remain shut...
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    blairf said:

    Ref header. This is a once in a hundred year chance to not tinker but totally reform.

    1.NI/Tax unified and as others said. Ditch the breaks... all of them. Pensioners, self employed the lot.
    2. VAT on everything, no exceptions. tampons, bread, books the lot.
    3. Pensions. part of 1, just get rid of the allowances all together.
    4. Land value tax. it really isn't hard. Ref Korea.
    5. Abolish stamp duties and rates. Part of 4.
    6. Escalate the sin taxes, fuel, fags, booze, gambling, carbon. All of them. you want to do bad things feel free but you're paying for it.

    Some of these are starting to sound like the planning of Steiner's attack.

    The size of Britain's economy when we emerge simply cannot and will not be large enough to yield anything like the money required from these measures to recoup what we have spent either now and in the future.

    The only thing that might help is to take an axe to everything that isn;t the NHS in the public sector, slash taxes and deregulate madly.

    That might make us some money. I doubt whether it would be anything like enough.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,424
    I really hope the story about the change to counting tests isn't true. The story about the NHS procurement manager is bad enough, fiddling with the numbers on the same day is too much confidence-knocking news in one go.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    They really must be chewing the carpets at the news channels. The more hyperbolic their attacks get the more people ignore them.
    See also BBC Scotland.
    I find BBC Scotland quite sycophantic tbh, but I wouldn't deny that Nicola has had a fairly good crisis despite the chaos and incompetence all around her. I thought Alex Bell's piece was more than a bit harsh.
    Obviously not sycophantic enough, according to a Survation poll the Scottish public give the SG a 70% rating for trustworthiness over the Corona virus v. 42% for the BBC.

    D'ye think Jackson's official complaint against the BBC for lack of SNPbadness is well advised?
    I fear with Jackson you need to ask if this is the stupidest thing he could have done with his time and conclude the answer is probably and regrettably not.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    felix said:
    The Boris is Back Bounce.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited May 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Are the NHS death counters having the day off?

    The England stats are already available. 352 deaths announced, 86% from the 7 days prior.
    For some reason, I can't see them on the website.

    Edit:- Can now.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,795
    eadric said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    The Downward trend in new Swedish ICU has definitely stopped



    Indeed given this data is laggy that suggests that after a week there will be a rise in the most recent figures.

    What's your reading of how things will proceed in Sweden? I think it's going to go very badly.
    I change my mind every day about Sweden. Today I don’t even know what to think. Their data is all over the place
    My guess is that Sweden won't be a total disaster, but basically it's a distraction. If you are not the UK or a couple of other countries your country will do better than Sweden at this stage. And if you are the UK then what can you learn from Sweden? Would it have been better not to have locked down and had absolutely catastrophic death rates? And if you are looking for role models, why not choose South Korea or somewhere like Denmark?

    There is one curiosity. People talk about British exceptionalism, but Swedish exceptionalism is on a different scale entirely. Including expectations that viruses behave differently there.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,455
    Scott_xP said:
    We should have learned from the Blair era that the problem with simplistic targets is always that they can be achieved in easier ways than that intended. Soviet hospitals wheeling patients into the street to die, redux.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,355
    TGOHF666 said:

    Also @kinabalu good charts in that link you gave. Especially Figure 2 showing that the deficit 1.2% of GDP is the lowest the UK has had since 2001/02 which thankfully leaves us in a much better position going into this crisis than in 2007/08 when look how close the deficit was to the yellow line in that chart - and how it had been that close since 2002/03.

    Imagine this had hit in 2009 - we would have been rooked.
    Damn right. And now we're utterly rooked.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,396
    Scott_xP said:
    Agreeing to mail is a bit dodgy but if the tests have been sent out after people have applied for them and are therefore presumably motivated what is the problem with that exactly?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    HYUFD said:

    They are his people
    In other words We SHOULD negotiate with terrorists when they're my terrorists.
    The Americans have always had a love-hate relationship with terrorists. Who do you think supported the IRA?
    Mainly north east Catholics. I was in a bar in the Combat Zone in Boston in the late 70s when a couple of heavy set males in blue jeans and black leather jackets came in and stood quietly by the door, followed by several females dressed the same, who wandered through the bar passing buckets around for donations under the watchful eyes of the men. That was Noraid. Northeastern Catholics loved the country so much that they'd do anything short of actually going there. They viewed the IRA as romantically as we viewed the old west. In those days there were many bumper stickers that sid simply 26 + 6 = 1. It didn't require an explanation.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,917
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    They really must be chewing the carpets at the news channels. The more hyperbolic their attacks get the more people ignore them.
    See also BBC Scotland.
    I find BBC Scotland quite sycophantic tbh, but I wouldn't deny that Nicola has had a fairly good crisis despite the chaos and incompetence all around her. I thought Alex Bell's piece was more than a bit harsh.
    Obviously not sycophantic enough, according to a Survation poll the Scottish public give the SG a 70% rating for trustworthiness over the Corona virus v. 42% for the BBC.

    D'ye think Jackson's official complaint against the BBC for lack of SNPbadness is well advised?
    I fear with Jackson you need to ask if this is the stupidest thing he could have done with his time and conclude the answer is probably and regrettably not.
    OH? What could be more stupid? I'm curious, please ...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
    Nigelb said:

    Welcome news for addicts of Euro-poli-drama:

    Netflix Boards Danish Political Drama ‘Borgen’ For New Season, Adds All Seasons to Platform
    https://variety.com/2020/tv/global/netflix-borgen-drama-dr-2022-1234592836/

    Season 12... the battle between the Moderate Centrists and their new rivals, the Centrist Moderates.

    A later series on intra Scandi relations during the virus would be interesting. I'd imagine some reference to Swedish smugness getting its comeuppance would be unavoidable, if a little tasteless.
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