8 weeks and a day since I visited Central London (Liverpool Street station - um, to trainspot a new Class 745 intercity unit ) 8 weeks since I rode the Tube anywhere (Gants Hill to Epping via Hainault and Woodford and back) 7 weeks and 6 days since I flew from Luton to Aberdeen (to see my brother, his wife and their newborn son!) 7 weeks since I did the train from Aberdeen to Inverness and back 6 weeks and a day since I rode any plane, train or bus at all (plane from Aberdeen to Southend, two trains from Southend Airport to Romford via Shenfield, bus from Romford to Gants Hill) 5 weeks and 6 days since I visited a really big Sainsbury's 5 weeks and 2 days since I did any shopping at all (local shops/pharmacy) - though I also visited Valentines Park
It is the refusal to discuss anything beyond the most banal version of the current government line that bothers me.
That is entirely the fault of the media.
Yes it might be interesting if the minister riffed a few ideas, but the journos cannot be trusted with that.
Indeed, its no surprise when the media act like petulant kids that they get replied to as such.
Maybe if the media stopped sending political journos who have a life's training of trying to talk over the person they're interviewing or seeking a "gotcha" moment . . . and instead started sending scientifically trained journalists who understand what they're talking about . . . we could then get some interesting questions and answers.
8 weeks and a day since I visited Central London (Liverpool Street station - um, to trainspot a new Class 745 intercity unit ) 8 weeks since I rode the Tube anywhere (Gants Hill to Epping via Hainault and Woodford and back) 7 weeks and 6 days since I flew from Luton to Aberdeen (to see my brother, his wife and their newborn son!) 7 weeks since I did the train from Aberdeen to Inverness and back 6 weeks and a day since I rode any plane, train or bus at all (plane from Aberdeen to Southend, two trains from Southend Airport to Romford via Shenfield, bus from Romford to Gants Hill) 5 weeks and 6 days since I visited a really big Sainsbury's 5 weeks and 2 days since I did any shopping at all (local shops/pharmacy) - though I also visited Valentines Park
Trains... must have trains...
Train Simulator 2020?
Just don't buy all the DLC.
I know nothing about it. Is it one of these games that soon ending up costing you £100s?
I nearly fell off my seat when I heard that buying all the DLC for iRacing costs over $1000 and you have to still pay monthly.
Not nearly as tedious as the government briefings, which this rather neatly skewers. It's no good complaining the media are acting like children when you speak to them - and the rest of the country - like two year olds.
The media demanded these. Does Merkel or Macron do daily ones?
I don't really care about that, or whether briefing should be daily or weekly. It is the refusal to discuss anything beyond the most banal version of the current government line that bothers me.
Well remove the political "journalists" and replace them with specialists in medicine and public health. Much more technical questions, especially of the experts. People obsessed with the who's up and who's down, can I get a gotcha and who think that the poly is the most interesting person in the room are just wasting everyone's time.
It is the refusal to discuss anything beyond the most banal version of the current government line that bothers me.
That is entirely the fault of the media.
Yes it might be interesting if the minister riffed a few ideas, but the journos cannot be trusted with that.
They riff ideas all the time, but via anonymous briefings.
I do think the media collude, but not in the way you suggest. What they collude is enabling the secret squirrel, no-name version because they rather like the intrigue.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
Norwich city centre much busier than a week ago. Far more traffic too.
Not good. I don't like the lockdown but it still has to be respected whether we like it or not.
Maybe some people just need the money and don;t feel they can rely on the state to provide it.
Doesn't sound like they were at work. Sounds as though they were outside of work actually!
In a way the the government has had rotten luck. Their leader was stricken with illness at exactly the wrong time. and the weather since lockdown has been amazing in much of the country. That bank holiday!
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
I see Barnier is still wanting us to sign on the dotted line their choices of a "level playing field" for a future agreement.
To continue the cricket theme: doing what the other side least want you to do is generally a good tactic.
Indeed. Some don't seem to have understood that the EU are the opposition during these negotiations.
We can be friendly with Australians even during the Ashes but on the pitch our batsmen and bowlers need to do what's best for England not what the Australians want us to do.
Ridiculous comment. People who regard negotiations as things one does with “opposition” have generally never done any serious negotiating. Negotiation is a tool to bring about or obtain something by discussion. It has no “opponents”.
Norwich city centre much busier than a week ago. Far more traffic too.
Not good. I don't like the lockdown but it still has to be respected whether we like it or not.
Maybe some people just need the money and don;t feel they can rely on the state to provide it.
Doesn't sound like they were at work. Sounds as though they were outside of work actually!
In a way the the government has had rotten luck. Their leader was stricken with illness at exactly the wrong time. and the weather since lockdown has been amazing in much of the country. That bank holiday!
Rotten luck? It's provided an excuse for inaction (although they wouldn't claim that!) and people have overwhelmingly abided by the guidance despite the weather.
Interesting from that video I linked, saying surprised by the lack of smokers in ICU with them. Said expecting for them to be overrun on the younger side with puffers and that isn't what they have had.
Now they give a number of possible reasons why that could be skewed and it is just one hospital, but interesting nugget that has been reported elsewhere.
It is the refusal to discuss anything beyond the most banal version of the current government line that bothers me.
That is entirely the fault of the media.
Yes it might be interesting if the minister riffed a few ideas, but the journos cannot be trusted with that.
Indeed, its no surprise when the media act like petulant kids that they get replied to as such.
Maybe if the media stopped sending political journos who have a life's training of trying to talk over the person they're interviewing or seeking a "gotcha" moment . . . and instead started sending scientifically trained journalists who understand what they're talking about . . . we could then get some interesting questions and answers.
That has been painfully necessary since week one.
It is down to the egos of the journos that they are still turning up, looking like tw@s.
Interesting from that video I linked, saying surprised by the lack of smokers in ICU with them. Said expecting for them to be overrun on the younger side with puffers and that isn't what they have had.
Now they give a number of possible reasons why that could be skewed and it is just one hospital, but interesting nugget that has been reported elsewhere.
Hm, weren't British American Tobacco working on a vaccine?
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
The government have zero room for f##k ups under any second wave. The public might be being very understanding of a fast moving situation at the moment, but if it is repeated again in 6 months, their poll ratings will take an unrecoverable hit.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
It is the refusal to discuss anything beyond the most banal version of the current government line that bothers me.
That is entirely the fault of the media.
Yes it might be interesting if the minister riffed a few ideas, but the journos cannot be trusted with that.
Indeed, its no surprise when the media act like petulant kids that they get replied to as such.
Maybe if the media stopped sending political journos who have a life's training of trying to talk over the person they're interviewing or seeking a "gotcha" moment . . . and instead started sending scientifically trained journalists who understand what they're talking about . . . we could then get some interesting questions and answers.
That has been painfully necessary since week one.
It is down to the egos of the journos that they are still turning up, looking like tw@s.
I am suddenly reminded of a conversation I had with a lawyer a long while ago.
He had been a junior on a complex finance case, defending.
The prosecution, instead of presenting a simple case too the jury, used the technicalities of the law brilliantly, He managed, by repeatedly asking the defendant the questions, on the same issue, from different angles to get an apparent contradiction out of the defendant.
The chap I was speaking to thought they had lost, and was surprised to see his chief all smiles.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
The government have zero room for f##k ups under any second wave. The public might be being very understanding of a fast moving situation at the moment, but if it is repeated again in 6 months, their poll ratings will take an unrecoverable hit.
Although that hit will require Starmer to up his game from what we have seen so far.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
The increasingly desperate media will be spinning 90k test this time next week as a massive failure on the part of the government.
I've been collecting useful graphics on COVID and related issues for training purposes. For those without a biology background following the vaccine and serological testing stories, this might be useful:
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
Although it takes time to get a South Korea style automated priority booking system setup, they really could have a series of "priority" lanes. High priority, NHS staff, show up, wave your badge, through to plebs who just have to queue.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
I think an uncoordinated rush to the testing centre would somewhere between a fuckup and disaster.
What makes you think that if people book an appointment they won't turn up?
There will be no whitewash at the White House. But there will be bleach.
Precedent, didn't Hillary bleach her emails?
Last night's outburst would have killed the careers of 99.9% of politicians. Dead.
It would. And approximately 100 previous examples would have too. It is as if America - or a large part of it - has become detached from anything even faintly recognizable as sanity or common decency. One dreads to imagine where all of this shit could lead if he were to win a second term. I mean, he won't, it's not happening, but one does occasionally find oneself dreading to imagine it.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
The increasingly desperate media will be spinning 90k test this time next week as a massive failure on the part of the government.
If they get to 80k+ a day and spin the "we have capacity for 100k", they will be fine. The media nitpicking over that will look even more petty than usual.
If it is only 50-60k a day, the 100k capacity spin won't wash.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
I think an uncoordinated rush to the testing centre would somewhere between a fuckup and disaster.
What makes you think that if people book an appointment they won't turn up?
I don't disagree, but the only way to have demand exceed supply is to have a queue. The NHS, of all organisations, should well understand this!
The media are holding the government hostage over the number of tests done - nothing else matters.
Another existing drug which might be repurposed. Should be trialled, as it's not particularly dangerous at the levels required to deliver a therapeutic dose to the lungs. The anticoagulant activity might be a bonus ( @Foxy ?)
The anticoagulant nafamostat potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro:an existing drug with multiple possible therapeutic effects https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.054981v1.full.pdf ...We previously found that nafamostat mesylate, an existing drug used for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), effectively blocked MERS-CoV S protein-initiated cell fusion by targeting TMPRSS2, and inhibited MERS-CoV infection of human lung epithelium-derived Calu-3 cells. Here we established a quantitative fusion assay dependent on SARS-CoV-2 S protein, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and found that nafamostat mesylate potently inhibited the fusion while camostat mesylate was about 10-fold less active. Furthermore, nafamostat mesylate blocked SARS-CoV-2 infection of Calu-3 cells with an EC50 around 10 nM, which is below its average blood concentration after intravenous administration through continuous infusion. These findings, together with accumulated clinical data regarding its safety, make nafamostat a likely candidate drug to treat COVID- 19...
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
8 weeks and a day since I visited Central London (Liverpool Street station - um, to trainspot a new Class 745 intercity unit ) 8 weeks since I rode the Tube anywhere (Gants Hill to Epping via Hainault and Woodford and back) 7 weeks and 6 days since I flew from Luton to Aberdeen (to see my brother, his wife and their newborn son!) 7 weeks since I did the train from Aberdeen to Inverness and back 6 weeks and a day since I rode any plane, train or bus at all (plane from Aberdeen to Southend, two trains from Southend Airport to Romford via Shenfield, bus from Romford to Gants Hill) 5 weeks and 6 days since I visited a really big Sainsbury's 5 weeks and 2 days since I did any shopping at all (local shops/pharmacy) - though I also visited Valentines Park
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Or, if we hadn't had a lockdown, what the numbers would have been and where and when.
There will be no whitewash at the White House. But there will be bleach.
Precedent, didn't Hillary bleach her emails?
Last night's outburst would have killed the careers of 99.9% of politicians. Dead.
It would. And approximately 100 previous examples would have too. It is as if America - or a large part of it - has become detached from anything even faintly recognizable as sanity or common decency. One dreads to imagine where all of this shit could lead if he were to win a second term. I mean, he won't, it's not happening, but one does occasionally find oneself dreading to imagine it.
I think a chunk of his vote just enjoy him trolling "experts". They are in on the joke....
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
The increasingly desperate media will be spinning 90k test this time next week as a massive failure on the part of the government.
The demand is there. The first batch of appointments was snapped up in minutes.
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Actually I am fully behind what the Government has done to prepare the NHS for an unknown number of patients, I think that they should be getting an enormous amount of credit which the media will never give them. The NHS staff working in ICU do an incredible job.
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
On the last point, that has clearly worked elsewhere, without those effects.
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
The increasingly desperate media will be spinning 90k test this time next week as a massive failure on the part of the government.
If they get to 80k+ a day and spin the "we have capacity for 100k", they will be fine. The media nitpicking over that will look even more petty than usual.
If it is only 50-60k a day, the 100k capacity spin won't wash.
I disagree. The media are baying for blood, and this is the one thing they've all latched on to, a target given repeatedly by ministers.
If we get to 80k they'll be asking the government why they failed, will they resign and if ministers will be taking only 80% of their pay until the pandemic is over?
They can bring in a more organised system a couple of days later, but on Thursday and Friday the *only* thing that counts is the number of tests being 100k.
8 weeks and a day since I visited Central London (Liverpool Street station - um, to trainspot a new Class 745 intercity unit ) 8 weeks since I rode the Tube anywhere (Gants Hill to Epping via Hainault and Woodford and back) 7 weeks and 6 days since I flew from Luton to Aberdeen (to see my brother, his wife and their newborn son!) 7 weeks since I did the train from Aberdeen to Inverness and back 6 weeks and a day since I rode any plane, train or bus at all (plane from Aberdeen to Southend, two trains from Southend Airport to Romford via Shenfield, bus from Romford to Gants Hill) 5 weeks and 6 days since I visited a really big Sainsbury's 5 weeks and 2 days since I did any shopping at all (local shops/pharmacy) - though I also visited Valentines Park
Trains... must have trains...
Train Simulator 2020?
Possibility - but it's just not the same!
You could try trolling people on railway discussion forums...
Another existing drug which might be repurposed. Should be trialled, as it's not particularly dangerous at the levels required to deliver a therapeutic dose to the lungs. The anticoagulant activity might be a bonus ( @Foxy ?)
The anticoagulant nafamostat potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro:an existing drug with multiple possible therapeutic effects https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.054981v1.full.pdf ...We previously found that nafamostat mesylate, an existing drug used for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), effectively blocked MERS-CoV S protein-initiated cell fusion by targeting TMPRSS2, and inhibited MERS-CoV infection of human lung epithelium-derived Calu-3 cells. Here we established a quantitative fusion assay dependent on SARS-CoV-2 S protein, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and found that nafamostat mesylate potently inhibited the fusion while camostat mesylate was about 10-fold less active. Furthermore, nafamostat mesylate blocked SARS-CoV-2 infection of Calu-3 cells with an EC50 around 10 nM, which is below its average blood concentration after intravenous administration through continuous infusion. These findings, together with accumulated clinical data regarding its safety, make nafamostat a likely candidate drug to treat COVID- 19...
Anecdotally, somewhere around 30% of those with severe symptoms have strange clotting problems. So maybe. But, to my understanding, the biochemical basis of the problem has not been identified yet, just the outcome observed.
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Or, if we hadn't had a lockdown, what the numbers would have been and where and when.
This fellow thinks the German and Italian lockdowns were unnecessary
Respiratory Support in Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Patients, with a Focus on Resource-Limited Settings https://www.ajtmh.org/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0283 ...Severe bilateral pneumonia is the main feature of severe COVID-19, and adequate ventilatory support is crucial for patient survival. Although our knowledge of the disease is still rapidly increasing, this review summarizes current guidance on the best provision of ventilatory support, with a focus on resource-limited settings. Key messages include that supplemental oxygen is a first essential step for the treatment of severe COVID-19 patients with hypoxemia and should be a primary focus in resource-limited settings where capacity for invasive ventilation is limited. Oxygen delivery can be increased by using a non-rebreathing mask and prone positioning. The presence of only hypoxemia should in general not trigger intubation because hypoxemia is often remarkably well tolerated. Patients with fatigue and at risk for exhaustion, because of respiratory distress, will require invasive ventilation. In these patients, lung protective ventilation is essential. Severe pneumonia in COVID-19 differs in some important aspects from other causes of severe pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome, and limiting the positive end-expiratory pressure level on the ventilator may be important. This ventilation strategy might reduce the currently very high case fatality rate of more than 50% in invasively ventilated COVID-19 patients...
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
The increasingly desperate media will be spinning 90k test this time next week as a massive failure on the part of the government.
If they get to 80k+ a day and spin the "we have capacity for 100k", they will be fine. The media nitpicking over that will look even more petty than usual.
If it is only 50-60k a day, the 100k capacity spin won't wash.
I disagree. The media are baying for blood, and this is the one thing they've all latched on to, a target given repeatedly by ministers.
If we get to 80k they'll be asking the government why they failed, will they resign and if ministers will be taking only 80% of their pay until the pandemic is over?
They can bring in a more organised system a couple of days later, but on Thursday and Friday the *only* thing that counts is the number of tests being 100k.
Not been funny but the media are having a very bad war. They can go all Piers Morgan as much as they like, the public already think they are a bunch of twats over how they react.
The government can say we are doing way more tests per day than South Korea ever did and up there with Germany. That is IF they get to say 80k, but that in itself will be a huge ask.
On trend! 557 for the 7 days to the 17th, I predicted 560 a couple of days ago, for the 7 days to the 18th I estimated 520 and that looks about right as well. The following day was about 490-510 which is also about right.
The 20th looks like it will be another mini-peak the same as the 15th but the overall trend is downwards.
%age change in cumulative 7 day deaths compared to the same day last week:
There will be no whitewash at the White House. But there will be bleach.
Precedent, didn't Hillary bleach her emails?
Last night's outburst would have killed the careers of 99.9% of politicians. Dead.
It would. And approximately 100 previous examples would have too. It is as if America - or a large part of it - has become detached from anything even faintly recognizable as sanity or common decency. One dreads to imagine where all of this shit could lead if he were to win a second term. I mean, he won't, it's not happening, but one does occasionally find oneself dreading to imagine it.
Though there's still the occasional outbreak of 'Trump sends the lefties' wild stuff, at least there are no longer pious exclamations about respecting the office even if you don't respect the man. Trump so evidently doesn't respect the office you'd have to be a loon to ask anyone else to do so during the current term.
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Different levels of lockdown in different areas is theoretically the best way of doing it, but it requires extensive policing if it's to be effective - roadblocks on county boundaries and railways etc. Oh, and London will be the last place unlocked, which will make the media go nuts.
There will be no whitewash at the White House. But there will be bleach.
Precedent, didn't Hillary bleach her emails?
Last night's outburst would have killed the careers of 99.9% of politicians. Dead.
It would. And approximately 100 previous examples would have too. It is as if America - or a large part of it - has become detached from anything even faintly recognizable as sanity or common decency. One dreads to imagine where all of this shit could lead if he were to win a second term. I mean, he won't, it's not happening, but one does occasionally find oneself dreading to imagine it.
I think a chunk of his vote just enjoy him trolling "experts". They are in on the joke....
Undoubtedly. He is essentially a Troll. If you have just the one word to sum him up that is a very good one to pick. Indeed it was my choice earlier today.
Another existing drug which might be repurposed. Should be trialled, as it's not particularly dangerous at the levels required to deliver a therapeutic dose to the lungs. The anticoagulant activity might be a bonus ( @Foxy ?)
The anticoagulant nafamostat potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro:an existing drug with multiple possible therapeutic effects https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.054981v1.full.pdf ...We previously found that nafamostat mesylate, an existing drug used for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), effectively blocked MERS-CoV S protein-initiated cell fusion by targeting TMPRSS2, and inhibited MERS-CoV infection of human lung epithelium-derived Calu-3 cells. Here we established a quantitative fusion assay dependent on SARS-CoV-2 S protein, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and found that nafamostat mesylate potently inhibited the fusion while camostat mesylate was about 10-fold less active. Furthermore, nafamostat mesylate blocked SARS-CoV-2 infection of Calu-3 cells with an EC50 around 10 nM, which is below its average blood concentration after intravenous administration through continuous infusion. These findings, together with accumulated clinical data regarding its safety, make nafamostat a likely candidate drug to treat COVID- 19...
Anecdotally, somewhere around 30% of those with severe symptoms have strange clotting problems. So maybe. But, to my understanding, the biochemical basis of the problem has not been identified yet, just the outcome observed.
Yes, I have no idea whether it would be helpful, either - I was just speculating that what appears to be a tolerable side effect, if the drug were to get used as an antiviral, might just be beneficial.
Another existing drug which might be repurposed. Should be trialled, as it's not particularly dangerous at the levels required to deliver a therapeutic dose to the lungs. The anticoagulant activity might be a bonus ( @Foxy ?)
The anticoagulant nafamostat potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro:an existing drug with multiple possible therapeutic effects https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.054981v1.full.pdf ...We previously found that nafamostat mesylate, an existing drug used for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), effectively blocked MERS-CoV S protein-initiated cell fusion by targeting TMPRSS2, and inhibited MERS-CoV infection of human lung epithelium-derived Calu-3 cells. Here we established a quantitative fusion assay dependent on SARS-CoV-2 S protein, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and found that nafamostat mesylate potently inhibited the fusion while camostat mesylate was about 10-fold less active. Furthermore, nafamostat mesylate blocked SARS-CoV-2 infection of Calu-3 cells with an EC50 around 10 nM, which is below its average blood concentration after intravenous administration through continuous infusion. These findings, together with accumulated clinical data regarding its safety, make nafamostat a likely candidate drug to treat COVID- 19...
Translation for those who might need it. The S protein of SARS-CoV-2 is the spike protein on the virus' outer envelope that binds to the ACE2 receptor on the host cell surface. Once the virus has bound to the cell, it requires the action of one of the host cell's enzymes, a protease (in this case one coded for by the TMPRSS2 gene), to facilitate the virus' entry into the host cell (which it does by cleaving the S protein).
Nigel, am I right in thinking that they are saying this anticoagulant blocks the action of the protease TMPRSS2 in permitting the second stage of that process, entry into the cell (fusion), rather than the first stage, the binding to the ACE2 receptor?
On trend! 557 for the 7 days to the 17th, I predicted 560 a couple of days ago, for the 7 days to the 18th I estimated 520 and that looks about right as well. The following day was about 490-510 which is also about right.
The 20th looks like it will be another mini-peak the same as the 15th but the overall trend is downwards.
%age change in cumulative 7 day deaths compared to the same day last week:
Given that 20k deaths was supposed to be a good outcome. We are already well in excess of that level even if you only add in the last reported ONS care home deaths what does your model estimate the range of first wave deaths will be?
All 5,000 home testing kits for key workers ran out within two minutes. The spokesman added the government hoped to have 18,000 daily home testing kits available for key workers by the “end of next week”.
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
That's because capacity was only at 50k yesterday. They are confident of getting capacity up to 100k. All they need to do is offer more tests tomorrow.
No, I am saying, lets imagine capacity is still increased, they are saying they will only do 18k home test kits next week. I don't see how they get more than 20k from hospitals, as admissions starting to fall. And there aren't enough drive-throughs to be doing be doing 50-60-70k tests a day from that approach.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
I thought they were going from 20 to 50 drive-throughs before the end of the month? That might provide enough.
26 to 50 yes. But you need people to be aware of them and of the mindset to go to one. It takes times for people to start doing this.
I though they were getting appointments at the drive-throughs via the government website.
They won't be getting 100k tests a day done, if they insist on websites and appointments. They need as many centres as possible, and telling everyone who thinks they would benefit from a test to turn up. Demand needs to exceed supply.
The increasingly desperate media will be spinning 90k test this time next week as a massive failure on the part of the government.
I'm less interested in the media judgement, than in what I would regard as a reasonable judgement.
As far as I can reconstruct, the 100,000 test pledge was made on the 2nd April, the first day that the UK managed 10,000 tests. So the promise was to increase the number of tests by an order of magnitude.
My personal judgement then would be that, if they can sustain test numbers in the high tens of thousands then that's near enough to an order of magnitude increase to count as a pass. This currently looks like a stretching target.
On trend! 557 for the 7 days to the 17th, I predicted 560 a couple of days ago, for the 7 days to the 18th I estimated 520 and that looks about right as well. The following day was about 490-510 which is also about right.
The 20th looks like it will be another mini-peak the same as the 15th but the overall trend is downwards.
%age change in cumulative 7 day deaths compared to the same day last week:
Given that 20k deaths was supposed to be a good outcome. We are already well in excess of that level even if you only add in the last reported ONS care home deaths what does your model estimate the range of first wave deaths will be?
I think minimum 30,000 maybe as high as 35,000
I thought 20,000 was the best case scenario, better than just ‘good’?
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
On the last point, that has clearly worked elsewhere, without those effects.
How well it works is probably dependent on how people view themselves . So, you can impose it in a region as long as people think of having a regional identity as well as a national one. It would probably have been fine having different rules for Scotland and/or Wales than for England, for example. Maybe London could also have had different rules. But I'm not sure that you could have different rules between, say, the South East and the South West, without both a lot of fuss being made, and bending of rules.
On trend! 557 for the 7 days to the 17th, I predicted 560 a couple of days ago, for the 7 days to the 18th I estimated 520 and that looks about right as well. The following day was about 490-510 which is also about right.
The 20th looks like it will be another mini-peak the same as the 15th but the overall trend is downwards.
%age change in cumulative 7 day deaths compared to the same day last week:
Given that 20k deaths was supposed to be a good outcome. We are already well in excess of that level even if you only add in the last reported ONS care home deaths what does your model estimate the range of first wave deaths will be?
I think minimum 30,000 maybe as high as 35,000
Professor Costello reckoned up to 40k. I reckon he was right
Some evidence now that the Infection Fatality Ratio is 0.3-0.5%. Between 3 and 5 times as fatal as the flu
If that is the case there will be an enormous dust-up to decide if we over-reacted.
Of course, this bug is more infectious than the flu and puts waaaay more people in hospital, even if it doesn’t kill them. Also it seems to leave more lingering health problems.
It won’t take long to conclude that if the figure is anywhere near those, you for sure certainly over-reacted.
I am sure you haven’t forgotten your posting here that, in such an eventuality, you would both deserve and welcome the ordure that PB’ers would justifiably send your way.
On trend! 557 for the 7 days to the 17th, I predicted 560 a couple of days ago, for the 7 days to the 18th I estimated 520 and that looks about right as well. The following day was about 490-510 which is also about right.
The 20th looks like it will be another mini-peak the same as the 15th but the overall trend is downwards.
%age change in cumulative 7 day deaths compared to the same day last week:
When does your model predict daily deaths getting down to double figures? Single figures?
'In 1888, the first medical use of H2O2 was described by Love as efficacious in treating numerous diseases, including scarlet fever, diphtheria, nasal catarrh, acute coryza, whooping cough, asthma hay fever and tonsillitis (Love, 1888). Similarly, Oliver and collaborators reported that intravenous injection of H2O2 was efficacious in treating influenza pneumonia in the epidemic following World War I (Oliver et al., 1920). Despite its beneficial effects, in the 1940s medical interest in further research on H2O2 was slowed down by the emerging development of new prescription medicines.' https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3417441/
One nil to Trump?
They used lot of weird stuff in the 1920s; most of it (like H2O2) with marginal efficacy. The second paper you cite has zero to do with injecting bleach, but about therapeutic approaches to targeting hydrogen peroxide metabolism... in stroke victims: ...We believe that the therapeutic potential of drugs targeting H2O2 metabolism needs to be explored in depth at a preclinical level in order to transform their theoretical use in brain ischaemia in a true clinical application....
In the mid to late 40's Hydrogen Peroxide was used as a disinfectant wound cleanser for minor skin injuries. Recall being told that the frothing was the cleansing. Quite an encouragement to use it.
It's still used as a topical disinfectant, in mouthwash, and of course to bleach hair (and it's undoubtedly effective in cleaning surfaces). Injecting, not so much.
Quite, but given that, here is what we know:
- H202 kills viruses - it's used to clean ambulances - H202 could kill or harm you if you ingest or inject it in excessive quantity or at excessive concentrations - H202 will not kill you if you ingest or inject it in small enough quantities and at low enough concentrations
What we don't yet know, is whether there is any crossover in the Venn diagram between being effective at killing viruses and being non-injurious to human health.
**IF** there is, and if this can be established by recognised testing, then if administered professionally, you have an all-purpose front-line weapon against viruses, regardless of specifics, that is cheap, quick, and easy to administer, in all countries.
Given how effective it is at killing other viruses, don't you think this would have been tested by now? The fact we haven't been doing that for the past decades suggest there is no overlap whatsoever.
That's a bit of a logic fail isn't it? It cannot be effective or someone would have tested it by now?
Many must find it beneficial, including some doctors, if we're to believe the poster above who warns of a burgeoning peroxide subculture.
8 weeks and a day since I visited Central London (Liverpool Street station - um, to trainspot a new Class 745 intercity unit ) 8 weeks since I rode the Tube anywhere (Gants Hill to Epping via Hainault and Woodford and back) 7 weeks and 6 days since I flew from Luton to Aberdeen (to see my brother, his wife and their newborn son!) 7 weeks since I did the train from Aberdeen to Inverness and back 6 weeks and a day since I rode any plane, train or bus at all (plane from Aberdeen to Southend, two trains from Southend Airport to Romford via Shenfield, bus from Romford to Gants Hill) 5 weeks and 6 days since I visited a really big Sainsbury's 5 weeks and 2 days since I did any shopping at all (local shops/pharmacy) - though I also visited Valentines Park
Trains... must have trains...
Train Simulator 2020?
Just don't buy all the DLC.
I know nothing about it. Is it one of these games that soon ending up costing you £100s?
I nearly fell off my seat when I heard that buying all the DLC for iRacing costs over $1000 and you have to still pay monthly.
iRacing is easily the best for learning real tracks though although they are always bumpier in real life. I reckon I've got over 5 grand in my simulator...
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Or, if we hadn't had a lockdown, what the numbers would have been and where and when.
This fellow thinks the German and Italian lockdowns were unnecessary
Eadric, various friends who are established figures in biorisk management and health security (Ivy-League professors, epidemiologists, virologists, public health officials) in a private Facebook discussion of Ben Israel's work, have systematically debunked all his arguments. I can't be arsed to repost here, but the arguments ran to several pages, even with the expletives deleted.
Just beware that there are a lot of instant experts out there with impressive sounding credentials and scientific looking graphs who really don't know what the f**k they are talking about
'In 1888, the first medical use of H2O2 was described by Love as efficacious in treating numerous diseases, including scarlet fever, diphtheria, nasal catarrh, acute coryza, whooping cough, asthma hay fever and tonsillitis (Love, 1888). Similarly, Oliver and collaborators reported that intravenous injection of H2O2 was efficacious in treating influenza pneumonia in the epidemic following World War I (Oliver et al., 1920). Despite its beneficial effects, in the 1940s medical interest in further research on H2O2 was slowed down by the emerging development of new prescription medicines.' https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3417441/
One nil to Trump?
They used lot of weird stuff in the 1920s; most of it (like H2O2) with marginal efficacy. The second paper you cite has zero to do with injecting bleach, but about therapeutic approaches to targeting hydrogen peroxide metabolism... in stroke victims: ...We believe that the therapeutic potential of drugs targeting H2O2 metabolism needs to be explored in depth at a preclinical level in order to transform their theoretical use in brain ischaemia in a true clinical application....
In the mid to late 40's Hydrogen Peroxide was used as a disinfectant wound cleanser for minor skin injuries. Recall being told that the frothing was the cleansing. Quite an encouragement to use it.
It's still used as a topical disinfectant, in mouthwash, and of course to bleach hair (and it's undoubtedly effective in cleaning surfaces). Injecting, not so much.
Quite, but given that, here is what we know:
- H202 kills viruses - it's used to clean ambulances - H202 could kill or harm you if you ingest or inject it in excessive quantity or at excessive concentrations - H202 will not kill you if you ingest or inject it in small enough quantities and at low enough concentrations
What we don't yet know, is whether there is any crossover in the Venn diagram between being effective at killing viruses and being non-injurious to human health.
**IF** there is, and if this can be established by recognised testing, then if administered professionally, you have an all-purpose front-line weapon against viruses, regardless of specifics, that is cheap, quick, and easy to administer, in all countries.
Given how effective it is at killing other viruses, don't you think this would have been tested by now? The fact we haven't been doing that for the past decades suggest there is no overlap whatsoever.
That's a bit of a logic fail isn't it? It cannot be effective or someone would have tested it by now?
Many must find it beneficial, including some doctors, if we're to believe the poster above who warns of a burgeoning peroxide subculture.
I doubt any find it beneficial beyond as a placebo.
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Or, if we hadn't had a lockdown, what the numbers would have been and where and when.
This fellow thinks the German and Italian lockdowns were unnecessary
Problem with that (if analysis is correct, I pass no comment on that) is that reproduction of 1 means steady state of number infected, in hospital, dying (once the system reaches equilibrium). So in Italy, where the health service was overwhelmed, keeping infections at that level just means continued chaos. It was necessary there to reduce the numbers to a manageable level first (by reproduction < 1).
In Germany, different story of course, health service was coping.
More generally, the reported numbers we have at the moment are probably not all that accurate from anywhere (even Germany, S Korea with lots of testing) so I'd be very cautious about the uncertainties that implies for the reproduction number (which I would guess are not included in the shaded confidence interval as that's pretty much impossible to do as they are unknown, that instead just assuming a random/representative population sample).
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Actually I am fully behind what the Government has done to prepare the NHS for an unknown number of patients, I think that they should be getting an enormous amount of credit which the media will never give them. The NHS staff working in ICU do an incredible job.
I do apologise if I've misinterpreted your posts, but you seem to be fairly vocal in criticising the lockdown policy. I didn't assume in any way that you were casting aspersions on the health provision aspect.
Some evidence now that the Infection Fatality Ratio is 0.3-0.5%. Between 3 and 5 times as fatal as the flu
If that is the case there will be an enormous dust-up to decide if we over-reacted.
Of course, this bug is more infectious than the flu and puts waaaay more people in hospital, even if it doesn’t kill them. Also it seems to leave more lingering health problems.
We may have made a mistake - it will certainly be better for us if it turns out that way.
This time last year my wife did 11 straight days (12 hour shifts) at her hospital as they were so busy and had a bit of sickness amongst her colleagues. Today was her first shift in 8 days (she is down to minimum hours). I have just spoken to her. She has one patient to look after against her normal 8-12.
Alright, we get it. We understand that you live in one of the (many) areas of the country that hasn't seen much transmission. The lockdown therefore seems totally over the top and actively detrimental to the provision of regular health services.
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Or, if we hadn't had a lockdown, what the numbers would have been and where and when.
This fellow thinks the German and Italian lockdowns were unnecessary
Comments
Maybe if the media stopped sending political journos who have a life's training of trying to talk over the person they're interviewing or seeking a "gotcha" moment . . . and instead started sending scientifically trained journalists who understand what they're talking about . . . we could then get some interesting questions and answers.
I nearly fell off my seat when I heard that buying all the DLC for iRacing costs over $1000 and you have to still pay monthly.
I do think the media collude, but not in the way you suggest. What they collude is enabling the secret squirrel, no-name version because they rather like the intrigue.
Some games (simulators, I think) can reach five figures.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1253655394741882882?s=20
https://twitter.com/djdave1926/status/1253656027163234305?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anal_bleaching
So lets say all strands go well, that 20k home tests, 20k hospital tests, 20k drive-throughs...still not going to get to the 100k tests a day.
Now they give a number of possible reasons why that could be skewed and it is just one hospital, but interesting nugget that has been reported elsewhere.
But everybody knows my view.
It is down to the egos of the journos that they are still turning up, looking like tw@s.
So, even optimistically, 20k for each strand.
He had been a junior on a complex finance case, defending.
The prosecution, instead of presenting a simple case too the jury, used the technicalities of the law brilliantly, He managed, by repeatedly asking the defendant the questions, on the same issue, from different angles to get an apparent contradiction out of the defendant.
The chap I was speaking to thought they had lost, and was surprised to see his chief all smiles.
The jury acquitted.
The increasingly desperate media will be spinning 90k test this time next week as a massive failure on the part of the government.
https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/s960x960/94143975_10217400872355495_7505068343141859328_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_oc=AQnXmTag19yShHoUElP4pjYMT6rkbJMlkFywasCZO6sYg275wFYHxJngbo7IJK6l7Kw&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&_nc_tp=7&oh=69eb5c372f517b18fafff93b59af0a56&oe=5EC7C5EF
What makes you think that if people book an appointment they won't turn up?
If it is only 50-60k a day, the 100k capacity spin won't wash.
The media are holding the government hostage over the number of tests done - nothing else matters.
Should be trialled, as it's not particularly dangerous at the levels required to deliver a therapeutic dose to the lungs.
The anticoagulant activity might be a bonus ( @Foxy ?)
The anticoagulant nafamostat potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro:an existing drug with multiple possible therapeutic effects
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.054981v1.full.pdf
...We previously found that nafamostat mesylate, an existing drug used for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), effectively blocked MERS-CoV S protein-initiated cell fusion by targeting TMPRSS2, and inhibited MERS-CoV infection of human lung epithelium-derived Calu-3 cells. Here we established a quantitative fusion assay dependent on SARS-CoV-2 S protein, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, and found that nafamostat mesylate potently inhibited the fusion while camostat mesylate was about 10-fold less active. Furthermore, nafamostat mesylate blocked SARS-CoV-2 infection of Calu-3 cells with an EC50 around 10 nM, which is below its average blood concentration after intravenous administration through continuous infusion. These findings, together with accumulated clinical data regarding its safety, make nafamostat a likely candidate drug to treat COVID- 19...
What is totally absent from your posts is any sense of understanding that there are just as many areas where the health services have seen an absolute tidal wave of pandemic-related admissions, and staff have worked their arses off just trying to keep the system afloat. Without additional measures taken, hospitals in those areas would surely have collapsed.
The remaining question seems to be simply whether it would have been feasible to have a lockdown only in those places which were thought to be at risk, while leaving everyone else's life as normal. Or, if that had happened, whether we would simply have seen a flood of people from the cities to the countryside, bringing the virus with them and overwhelming services everywhere. Or, indeed, if imposing the lockdown arbitrarily on some places but not others, if that would have weakened the messaging across the board and damaged efforts where it really mattered.
Ahead of the game.
If we get to 80k they'll be asking the government why they failed, will they resign and if ministers will be taking only 80% of their pay until the pandemic is over?
They can bring in a more organised system a couple of days later, but on Thursday and Friday the *only* thing that counts is the number of tests being 100k.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/
https://twitter.com/pwyowell/status/1253584201691156486?s=21
https://twitter.com/pwyowell/status/1253631255607947264?s=21
https://twitter.com/pwyowell/status/1253632548657418240?s=21
https://www.ajtmh.org/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0283
...Severe bilateral pneumonia is the main feature of severe COVID-19, and adequate ventilatory support is crucial for patient survival. Although our knowledge of the disease is still rapidly increasing, this review summarizes current guidance on the best provision of ventilatory support, with a focus on resource-limited settings. Key messages include that supplemental oxygen is a first essential step for the treatment of severe COVID-19 patients with hypoxemia and should be a primary focus in resource-limited settings where capacity for invasive ventilation is limited. Oxygen delivery can be increased by using a non-rebreathing mask and prone positioning. The presence of only hypoxemia should in general not trigger intubation because hypoxemia is often remarkably well tolerated. Patients with fatigue and at risk for exhaustion, because of respiratory distress, will require invasive ventilation. In these patients, lung protective ventilation is essential. Severe pneumonia in COVID-19 differs in some important aspects from other causes of severe pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome, and limiting the positive end-expiratory pressure level on the ventilator may be important. This ventilation strategy might reduce the currently very high case fatality rate of more than 50% in invasively ventilated COVID-19 patients...
The government can say we are doing way more tests per day than South Korea ever did and up there with Germany. That is IF they get to say 80k, but that in itself will be a huge ask.
On trend! 557 for the 7 days to the 17th, I predicted 560 a couple of days ago, for the 7 days to the 18th I estimated 520 and that looks about right as well. The following day was about 490-510 which is also about right.
The 20th looks like it will be another mini-peak the same as the 15th but the overall trend is downwards.
%age change in cumulative 7 day deaths compared to the same day last week:
Nigel, am I right in thinking that they are saying this anticoagulant blocks the action of the protease TMPRSS2 in permitting the second stage of that process, entry into the cell (fusion), rather than the first stage, the binding to the ACE2 receptor?
We are already well in excess of that level even if you only add in the last reported ONS care home deaths what does your model estimate the range of first wave deaths will be?
I think minimum 30,000 maybe as high as 35,000
As far as I can reconstruct, the 100,000 test pledge was made on the 2nd April, the first day that the UK managed 10,000 tests. So the promise was to increase the number of tests by an order of magnitude.
My personal judgement then would be that, if they can sustain test numbers in the high tens of thousands then that's near enough to an order of magnitude increase to count as a pass. This currently looks like a stretching target.
I am sure you haven’t forgotten your posting here that, in such an eventuality, you would both deserve and welcome the ordure that PB’ers would justifiably send your way.
Many must find it beneficial, including some doctors, if we're to believe the poster above who warns of a burgeoning peroxide subculture.
Just beware that there are a lot of instant experts out there with impressive sounding credentials and scientific looking graphs who really don't know what the f**k they are talking about
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1253678949567209474?s=20
In Germany, different story of course, health service was coping.
More generally, the reported numbers we have at the moment are probably not all that accurate from anywhere (even Germany, S Korea with lots of testing) so I'd be very cautious about the uncertainties that implies for the reproduction number (which I would guess are not included in the shaded confidence interval as that's pretty much impossible to do as they are unknown, that instead just assuming a random/representative population sample).
I would say the govt needs to act quickly if it wants to retain control.
If they are trying the "bit pregnant" approach I don't have great hopes for it.
Probably COVID19 is worried about a Father Jack infection....