Well I was completely wrong about the Furlough application website. It did not crash and was fast It was very easy to use, we asked a question and got an answer within an hour. Our application has been accepted and we will get the money within a week. That is a fantastic effort by the Government.
Are you Dominic Cummings by chance?
What he says is very true. The new system is working very well. I have heard not a word of praise in the MSM. If it had crashed? A certain lack of balance in the media pervades, which only reduces their shredded credibility further.
It is an awesome achievement which I thought they had no chance of doing. But tomorrows headlines will be about the Government not engaging with a telecom company who think that they can get hold of some cheap masks
I know banging this drum...but why the f##k weren't they doing this training 2 months ago? What's the worst that could have happened, wasted some money and squaddies time for a couple of days.
665 new deaths in England. Again, quite a significant amount of back-dated deaths in there from many days / weeks ago..
I think this was just in focus yesterday because it was particularly pronounced. It's been a consistent feature of the data for weeks, though. Usually driven by a single trust (yesterday it was two) that releases a bunch that go back a few weeks.
Reporting has actually gotten quicker over the past few weeks. At the start of April, they were reporting around 15% of deaths the following day; it's now probably up to about 20% (caveat that the ultimate position of recent days is still very uncertain). The percentage reported after three days has increased from ~60% to more like 80%.
Edit: the speed up in reporting is making the current position look worse than it probably is. Because if you compare deaths after (say) 7 days, then actually you're comparing a higher proportion of the more recent figure with a lower proportion of the earlier one. So the recent one is a bit exaggerated. It's possible that the deaths are coming down a bit faster than it appears; it'll just take a bit of time to be sure.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
The story is that the government have told a series of different stories about it, and when the head of the FCO stated the truth - that they politically chose not to - they forced a retraction. That the EU scheme hasn't delivered isn't the issue - the government's fear that it screwed up thats the story.
Any evidence that he was coerced into writing the second letter? I assume it was signed vi coactus or something.
665 new deaths in England. Again, quite a significant amount of back-dated deaths in there from many days / weeks ago..
Coming down painfully slowly?
Some of us have been banging on for a while that we won't know when we've passed the peak until 2-4 weeks after the peak.
The specific day was the 8th, I think we can say that fairly confidently now. There has been a slow decrease since then.
Doesn't that imply that the measures in place have reduces R0, but only to something just below 1? If they were really effective the decrease should be quite fast.
Deaths are a lagging indicator. People dying in the last 7 days (~90% of the daily figures released) were infected two or three weeks ago.
Unfortunately there isn't a better publicly accessible data source with a line by line breakdown of each case from when the patient was initially diagnosed with age, sex, location, pre-existing conditions (Y/N and severity) and outcome. With that there is probably enough information to come up with an R0 value and do some predictive modelling.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
"will die"... given that it hasn't delivered a single item yet, that's quite a claim.
The simple fact is that the media cannot cope with the fact that the NHS is coping so is just making stuff up. They were desperate for the ambulances queueing at A&E photos.
It's very frustrating - they are faffing about with measures to allow kids out for a walk with an adult but it is very vague and keeps changing. Suffice to say that confidence in the government is already taking a hit and is likely to worsen if they don't get back on track.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
The story is that the government have told a series of different stories about it, and when the head of the FCO stated the truth - that they politically chose not to - they forced a retraction. That the EU scheme hasn't delivered isn't the issue - the government's fear that it screwed up thats the story.
Any evidence that he was coerced into writing the second letter? I assume it was signed vi coactus or something.
We can't prove it. But either he waltzed into the select committee to talk in confidence about something he knew nothing about and then volunteered to write a bizarrely worded letter of contradiction immediately afterwards - in which case fire him - or he said what was true, the government pooed itself and thrust a SPAD-written letter in front of him on pain of his career to sign.
Well I was completely wrong about the Furlough application website. It did not crash and was fast It was very easy to use, we asked a question and got an answer within an hour. Our application has been accepted and we will get the money within a week. That is a fantastic effort by the Government.
Are you Dominic Cummings by chance?
What he says is very true. The new system is working very well. I have heard not a word of praise in the MSM. If it had crashed? A certain lack of balance in the media pervades, which only reduces their shredded credibility further.
You don't hear a word about the schemes that are working well e.g. the food box deliveries, the volunteering scheme, etc.
There is no sign of civil unrest, there are no real shortages in the shops, internet has held up.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
The story is that the government have told a series of different stories about it, and when the head of the FCO stated the truth - that they politically chose not to - they forced a retraction. That the EU scheme hasn't delivered isn't the issue - the government's fear that it screwed up thats the story.
Any evidence that he was coerced into writing the second letter? I assume it was signed vi coactus or something.
We can't prove it. But either he waltzed into the select committee to talk in confidence about something he knew nothing about and then volunteered to write a bizarrely worded letter of contradiction immediately afterwards - in which case fire him - or he said what was true, the government pooed itself and thrust a SPAD-written letter in front of him on pain of his career to sign.
Everyone makes a mistake. It would be silly to fire someone over misspeaking like that.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
665 new deaths in England. Again, quite a significant amount of back-dated deaths in there from many days / weeks ago..
Coming down painfully slowly?
Some of us have been banging on for a while that we won't know when we've passed the peak until 2-4 weeks after the peak.
The specific day was the 8th, I think we can say that fairly confidently now. There has been a slow decrease since then.
Doesn't that imply that the measures in place have reduces R0, but only to something just below 1? If they were really effective the decrease should be quite fast.
Down from 2.7 to about 0.8. Which you could say IS quite effective.
I think that we can only infer that, but it sounds about right. We need to test a bit more widely to be sure. We also need to trace so we can determine which areas transmission is still occurring in.
My hunch is domestically, and in multi occupancy residences and workplaces, particularly care homes and hospitals.
Good to listen in to Starmer at #PMQs, it was like a QC interrogating a witness. Worked well in a quiet chamber, but maybe less so when all the cheering hoons come back.
A Chinese city near the Russian border has now “imposed a lockdown on all residential communities and villages”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
The city of Harbin, which has a population of 10 million people, is implementing strict measures today, similar to those imposed on the central city of Wuhan during the early stages of the Covid-19 outbreak in January.
From less authoritative source...
Like in Wuhan, people are collapsing on streets in Harbin
Looking at those charts from David Paton, hasn't the decline in UK deaths since 8 April been somewhat more marked than say in Spain, Italy or France, or am I simply clutching at straws here?
If you smooth a bit, initially we look a bit more like Italy, a faster downslope than Spain.
Early days though, and tbh I'm not so sure we've replicated the Italian success in drastically squashing the numbers of infections (neither has anyone else of the major outbreak countries).
A Chinese city near the Russian border has now “imposed a lockdown on all residential communities and villages”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
The city of Harbin, which has a population of 10 million people, is implementing strict measures today, similar to those imposed on the central city of Wuhan during the early stages of the Covid-19 outbreak in January.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
UK deaths per million inhabitants = 255 Ecuador deaths per million inhabitants = 29
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
UK deaths per million inhabitants = 255 Ecuador deaths per million inhabitants = 29
A Chinese city near the Russian border has now “imposed a lockdown on all residential communities and villages”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
The city of Harbin, which has a population of 10 million people, is implementing strict measures today, similar to those imposed on the central city of Wuhan during the early stages of the Covid-19 outbreak in January.
Strange .... they have so few cases recorded
"There are currently 52 confirmed cases in Harbin."
Well I was completely wrong about the Furlough application website. It did not crash and was fast It was very easy to use, we asked a question and got an answer within an hour. Our application has been accepted and we will get the money within a week. That is a fantastic effort by the Government.
Yes, our civil service are very good indeed, once they get the politicos out of the way.
Well at least the LD politicos don't give them too much bother now they've buggered off to Facebook et al.
A Chinese city near the Russian border has now “imposed a lockdown on all residential communities and villages”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
The city of Harbin, which has a population of 10 million people, is implementing strict measures today, similar to those imposed on the central city of Wuhan during the early stages of the Covid-19 outbreak in January.
Strange .... they have so few cases recorded
"There are currently 52 confirmed cases in Harbin."
Belgium talking about erasing restrictions next month, small shops, schools etc.
That seems ..... brave. You can understand when say Austria or Denmark does likewise, but Belgium's numbers are horrific.
It’s kind of Belgium to test out a really mad super Swedish fuck-it-we’ve-got-loads-dying-but-let’s-throw-the-beerhalls-open-anyway strategy. If, in a month, it’s all tickety boo, we can copy them. If, however, their crematoria are expanding capacity...
The Swedish strategy you were advocating here just a few days ago? Or a different Swedish strategy that has so far escaped any attention?
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
UK deaths per million inhabitants = 255 Ecuador deaths per million inhabitants = 29
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
So they are at 50% in the polls and have a 80 seat majority and their collapse is predicted
I think when the public turn it will be swift. Dissatisfaction at the response to the virus could spread as fast as the virus itself. At an R0 of 3, that 50% poll rating is likely to be 25% in the space of a few weeks. But we will see. I could be wrong. If either Oxford or Imperial are successful this year with a UK authored vaccine, that will IMO make a material and positive difference to the government's prospects of survival.
Well that, or we get a second wave...now if the government have morphed its response into something akin to Germany, I think they get benefit of the doubt. Global pandemic, fast moving, basically every country other than handful very badly hit (even Germany not in the same league as South Korea, but clearly ramping everything up with stereotypical German efficiency).
However, if there are repeats of the mistakes made now, be difficult not to see massive upheaval in the opinion polls which really sticks.
I'm a vaccine man. Both teams sound genuinely confident of delivering for mass rollout early next year. That's not long now. Social distancing and shield the vulnerable until then. Partial return to normality in the meantime, starting late May. Trigger points for hospital admissions which if exceeded cause certain restrictions to be reinstated. Economy down but not quite out. Total excess deaths pre-vaccine of the order 100k. This is my forecast if I had to make one.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
A Chinese city near the Russian border has now “imposed a lockdown on all residential communities and villages”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
The city of Harbin, which has a population of 10 million people, is implementing strict measures today, similar to those imposed on the central city of Wuhan during the early stages of the Covid-19 outbreak in January.
From less authoritative source...
Like in Wuhan, people are collapsing on streets in Harbin
That is the kind of story that should be leading the news, as it is so ominously important - not eu procurement committee membership bollocks
"The gates of all communities and villages will be guarded, residents who enter and exit must hold a health code, wear masks and show normal body temperatures, while no other people and vehicles will be allowed to enter, according to the new measures adopted by the Harbin government."
52 cases my arse.
If it is bad, it also spells huge trouble on a number of different fronts, not least for the stability of China. They have spent the past month pumping out propaganda of how the great leader and the party have beat coronavirus and look how much better we are than the West.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
Indeed = the EU has so far had a very bad academic -and I speak as a remainer living in Spain and, like many here, feeling very let down by it.
665 new deaths in England. Again, quite a significant amount of back-dated deaths in there from many days / weeks ago..
Coming down painfully slowly?
Some of us have been banging on for a while that we won't know when we've passed the peak until 2-4 weeks after the peak.
The specific day was the 8th, I think we can say that fairly confidently now. There has been a slow decrease since then.
Doesn't that imply that the measures in place have reduces R0, but only to something just below 1? If they were really effective the decrease should be quite fast.
Not so, the decrease in cases should be quite fast (once we've worked through the residual transmission-at-home new cases), but the decrease in deaths will be much flatter because people don't die a fixed number of days after contracting the disease.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
If they have this stuff why are nurses in Spain and Italy still struggling for PPE?
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
"Dogs being trained to find passengers with COVID-19 at airports The Medical Detection Dogs charity says it hopes the dogs will be able to let medics know if a person needs to be tested or not.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
So they are at 50% in the polls and have a 80 seat majority and their collapse is predicted
I think when the public turn it will be swift. Dissatisfaction at the response to the virus could spread as fast as the virus itself. At an R0 of 3, that 50% poll rating is likely to be 25% in the space of a few weeks. But we will see. I could be wrong. If either Oxford or Imperial are successful this year with a UK authored vaccine, that will IMO make a material and positive difference to the government's prospects of survival.
Well that, or we get a second wave...now if the government have morphed its response into something akin to Germany, I think they get benefit of the doubt. Global pandemic, fast moving, basically every country other than handful very badly hit (even Germany not in the same league as South Korea, but clearly ramping everything up with stereotypical German efficiency).
However, if there are repeats of the mistakes made now, be difficult not to see massive upheaval in the opinion polls which really sticks.
I'm a vaccine man. Both teams sound genuinely confident of delivering for mass rollout early next year. That's not long now. Social distancing and shield the vulnerable until then. Partial return to normality in the meantime, starting late May. Trigger points for hospital admissions which if exceeded cause certain restrictions to be reinstated. Economy down but not quite out. Total excess deaths pre-vaccine of the order 100k. This is my forecast if I had to make one.
Well we have to remain optimistic. The alternative is rather dystopian.
I thought Bill Gates gave some interesting insights, which was putting the vaccine to one side, we have had a load of medical tech that has been really only getting minimal effort that could be hugely trans-formative. This massive focus on finding a vaccine will turbo charge research in these fields and could well provide a huge number of advances we never though were possible.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
You're not this stupid, surely? You're not that blinded by Europhobia are you?
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
UK deaths per million inhabitants = 255 Ecuador deaths per million inhabitants = 29
Ecuador deaths (that the Ecuadorian government gives a shit about, or know were alive in the first pace) per million inhabitants = 29
What a surprise, all the usual suspects who were terribly impressed by the likes of CUK, Rory Stewart and the Lib Dems are now terribly impressed by Keir Starmer. Doesn't bode well for his electoral chances.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
You're not this stupid, surely? You're not that blinded by Europhobia are you?
And not or.
There's a cost and a benefit to joining any scheme. I'm not sure why the default assumption is that just because it has EU in the name it must be good.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
You're not this stupid, surely? You're not that blinded by Europhobia are you?
And not or.
There's a cost and a benefit to joining any scheme. I'm not sure why the default assumption is that just because it has EU in the name it must be good.
No one is making that assumption. The only people labouring under an EU angle are crazed Europhobes who would literally prefer to see people die than participate in an EU scheme.
The scheme was non-exclusive and offered a different way for Britain to access scarce supplies. But it seems that the government had a point of principle to prove and it wasn't going to let the fact that it might well lead to avoidable deaths stop it making that point of principle.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
The story is that the government have told a series of different stories about it, and when the head of the FCO stated the truth - that they politically chose not to - they forced a retraction. That the EU scheme hasn't delivered isn't the issue - the government's fear that it screwed up thats the story.
Do you really think anyone outside this site is discussing this story? They’re not. It’s piffle. It’s fluff, it’s a side order or triviality in a sauce of irrelevance, given that we we confronting a global catastrophe. It’s borderline irresponsible to make this any kind of lead story
Those working for the NHS and in care homes, and their friends and families are discussing it.
As is the news that government let a lot of PPE go overseas.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
You're not this stupid, surely? You're not that blinded by Europhobia are you?
And not or.
There's a cost and a benefit to joining any scheme. I'm not sure why the default assumption is that just because it has EU in the name it must be good.
Like an EU currency scheme - there would be costs but definitely a good idea right ??
Another observation, it looks like reporting of deaths is getting faster or at least more frontloaded:
We started with around 75-80% of 7 day deaths coming on days 1-3, it's now around 85-90%. I think that is set to continue as well as NHS trusts get better at keeping on top of the reporting.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
Indeed = the EU has so far had a very bad academic -and I speak as a remainer living in Spain and, like many here, feeling very let down by it.
Oops - predictive text produced 'academic' when i meant of course 'pandemic'!
I know banging this drum...but why the f##k weren't they doing this training 2 months ago? What's the worst that could have happened, wasted some money and squaddies time for a couple of days.
If they can't hit it with a big hammer I would be cautious about any squaddie performing any test on anyone.
That's what I was going to say. Wouldn't fancy a soldier sticking things in my mouth. But it's better coming from you for obvious reasons. People will listen.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
You're not this stupid, surely? You're not that blinded by Europhobia are you?
And not or.
There's a cost and a benefit to joining any scheme. I'm not sure why the default assumption is that just because it has EU in the name it must be good.
Like an EU currency scheme - there would be costs but definitely a good idea right ??
Yes. Just like an EU currency scheme. But one where we could carry on using sterling. And dollars. And zlotys.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Anybody but Liz Kendall in that seat she would have lost guaranteed. Tories threw a lot of time and quality at that seat.
So Starmer's first PMQs outing didn't really hit the spot for the PB glitterati. The fake news outlets seemed to like it though.
You should read the contemporary comments - across the political spectrum positive for Starmer as a refreshing improvement from the dire Corbyn.
Well yes, but that's an extremely low bar.
I don't quite share the general approval of Starmer's approach. To me he comes over not only as dull but also as nit-picking and pedantic. He's also a bit transparent when he solemnly says he's not going to play politics and then in the next sentence plays politics.
A big improvement on Corbyn, of course - who wouldn't be? - and also better than Brown or Miliband, who were both dismal. In that sense, he'll do, but I think Boris will be able to bluster his way around him.
A reminder that, according to the ‘model’ that Henrietta and Eadric were touting around just a few weeks ago, today is the day that we should have been reaching 100 million confirmed Coronavirus cases worldwide.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Kendall? C'mon. We're talking the LABOUR party here. But Nandy, yes, maybe. I actually voted for her.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Anybody but Liz Kendall in that seat she would have lost guaranteed. Tories threw a lot of time and quality at that seat.
btw overdue but welcome to the site. We need sensible types from the left which it sounds as though you may be?
665 new deaths in England. Again, quite a significant amount of back-dated deaths in there from many days / weeks ago..
I think this was just in focus yesterday because it was particularly pronounced. It's been a consistent feature of the data for weeks, though. Usually driven by a single trust (yesterday it was two) that releases a bunch that go back a few weeks.
Reporting has actually gotten quicker over the past few weeks. At the start of April, they were reporting around 15% of deaths the following day; it's now probably up to about 20% (caveat that the ultimate position of recent days is still very uncertain). The percentage reported after three days has increased from ~60% to more like 80%.
Edit: the speed up in reporting is making the current position look worse than it probably is. Because if you compare deaths after (say) 7 days, then actually you're comparing a higher proportion of the more recent figure with a lower proportion of the earlier one. So the recent one is a bit exaggerated. It's possible that the deaths are coming down a bit faster than it appears; it'll just take a bit of time to be sure.
Yes, though psychologically that's helpful in avoiding complacency in the lockdown so that we can drive the rate of infection as low as possible.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
You're not this stupid, surely? You're not that blinded by Europhobia are you?
And not or.
There's a cost and a benefit to joining any scheme. I'm not sure why the default assumption is that just because it has EU in the name it must be good.
Like an EU currency scheme - there would be costs but definitely a good idea right ??
Yes. Just like an EU currency scheme. But one where we could carry on using sterling. And dollars. And zlotys.
Why does anyone care about joining a bureaucracy to procure PPE from a process that, so far, has procured nothing? I do not get it. We could have surely procured the same PPE, had it existed, in other ways? Even as a hypothetical I don't see the controversy.
A reminder that, according to the ‘model’ that Henrietta and Eadric were touting around just a few weeks ago, today is the day that we should have been reaching 100 million confirmed Coronavirus cases worldwide.
In fairness to the model, we can't say there aren't 100 million cases worldwide.
For example, Nigeria only has 782 official cases but they have only done 8,000 tests for a population of 196 million people
Starmer was forensic, measured and showed how he can think on his feet – qualities that you would associate with someone who had been a successful Director of Public Arosecutions before he entered Parliament.
Well, yes.
But it’s good to know it’s not just successful DPPs that have it, Starmer appears to have it too.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
I’m not going to engage you with on the EU ever again. It’s bizarre how you react. It’s like a switch is thrown in your head and you go from a smart witty man to this frothing Remoaner lunatic. And strangest of all is the fact you don’t seem aware of it
Why do you think it is remotely acceptable for the government to refuse to join a scheme for an urgently-needed commodity, a decision that will almost certainly cost lives?
Perhaps because they think there are faster ways of procurement? Given HMG has delivered a billion items and this scheme zero, they might have a point.
You're not this stupid, surely? You're not that blinded by Europhobia are you?
And not or.
There's a cost and a benefit to joining any scheme. I'm not sure why the default assumption is that just because it has EU in the name it must be good.
Like an EU currency scheme - there would be costs but definitely a good idea right ??
Yes. Just like an EU currency scheme. But one where we could carry on using sterling. And dollars. And zlotys.
Why does anyone care about joining a bureaucracy to procure PPE from a process that, so far, has procured nothing? I do not get it. We could have surely procured the same PPE, had it existed, in other ways? Even as a hypothetical I don't see the controversy.
It's called diversification. Why on earth wouldn't anyone grasp an opportunity to add another channel for procurement?
Although for doltish leavers I'm sure the irony is lost that PPE did come in eventually. From Turkey.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
The story is that the government have told a series of different stories about it, and when the head of the FCO stated the truth - that they politically chose not to - they forced a retraction. That the EU scheme hasn't delivered isn't the issue - the government's fear that it screwed up thats the story.
Do you really think anyone outside this site is discussing this story? They’re not. It’s piffle. It’s fluff, it’s a side order or triviality in a sauce of irrelevance, given that we we confronting a global catastrophe. It’s borderline irresponsible to make this any kind of lead story
Those working for the NHS and in care homes, and their friends and families are discussing it.
As is the news that government let a lot of PPE go overseas.
Not the ones I have spoken to.
But they are pissed about stuff going overseas.
As I have said before I think we need a full inquiry after the dust settles to look into this. It should look at politicians, the civil service and the health service.
Significant failures by any of the decision makers in any of those organisations should lead to sackings, not nice retirements or moving them sideways - actual sackings.
A reminder that, according to the ‘model’ that Henrietta and Eadric were touting around just a few weeks ago, today is the day that we should have been reaching 100 million confirmed Coronavirus cases worldwide.
In fairness to the model, we can't say there aren't 100 million cases worldwide.
For example, Nigeria only has 782 official cases but they have only done 8,000 tests for a population of 196 million people
The ‘model’ was derived from confirmed reported cases, not from actual real world cases (for which no data exists). In the early days, shortage of tests was just as much an issue as now - for example the US. It was a fine illustration of how fiddling around trying to fit a formula to existing mathematical data hoping to project it forward was an utter waste of time. So many ‘chartist’ investors have lost money believing they can do the same.
Not sure how significant it is, but today I had a phone call inviting me to attend a (delayed) 6-month check for cancer: a cystoscopy. This will require a certain amount of PPE for those doing it (normally two or three from memory).
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
So they are at 50% in the polls and have a 80 seat majority and their collapse is predicted
I think when the public turn it will be swift. Dissatisfaction at the response to the virus could spread as fast as the virus itself. At an R0 of 3, that 50% poll rating is likely to be 25% in the space of a few weeks. But we will see. I could be wrong. If either Oxford or Imperial are successful this year with a UK authored vaccine, that will IMO make a material and positive difference to the government's prospects of survival.
Well that, or we get a second wave...now if the government have morphed its response into something akin to Germany, I think they get benefit of the doubt. Global pandemic, fast moving, basically every country other than handful very badly hit (even Germany not in the same league as South Korea, but clearly ramping everything up with stereotypical German efficiency).
However, if there are repeats of the mistakes made now, be difficult not to see massive upheaval in the opinion polls which really sticks.
I'm a vaccine man. Both teams sound genuinely confident of delivering for mass rollout early next year. That's not long now. Social distancing and shield the vulnerable until then. Partial return to normality in the meantime, starting late May. Trigger points for hospital admissions which if exceeded cause certain restrictions to be reinstated. Economy down but not quite out. Total excess deaths pre-vaccine of the order 100k. This is my forecast if I had to make one.
Well we have to remain optimistic. The alternative is rather dystopian.
I thought Bill Gates gave some interesting insights, which was putting the vaccine to one side, we have had a load of medical tech that has been really only getting minimal effort that could be hugely trans-formative. This massive focus on finding a vaccine will turbo charge research in these fields and could well provide a huge number of advances we never though were possible.
Well that is good to hear - Gates says little that isn't at the very least worth thinking about.
As for my 100,000 UK deaths forecast being IYO "optimistic". This rather says something, doesn't it.
Guido has looked into what potential PPE providers Labour is asking the Government to explore. Some of these are crackers. Delboy would be proud.
--------------------------
A football agent company run by a professional football agent offering to provide “ventilators”.
A historical clothing company offering to make up to 175 gowns a week – or fewer than one gown per hospital per week. Its products currently include a sixteenth century silk bodice. Gowns need to be single use and made to advanced, exacting specifications from specific fabrics.
A lady called Bella Gonshorovitz who makes clothes to measure and has a Go Fund Me page offering to make up to 500 gowns a week. Just under 1.5 per hospital per week.
The Whent, a Company that exists to reduce dependence on plastic, peculiarly offering to produce tests and also gloves. Medical gloves must be made to exacting specifications and are largely made of plastic. The company currently makes canned mineral water but is now offering to make Covid tests…
An events company in Surrey offering “supplying masks and respirators from China”. The company claims to provide the “ultimate corporate day experience…[with] delicious cuisine from sushi to sandwiches, hot and cold buffets, BBQ, breakfast, snacks and lunch”. Great, just no mention of advanced medical equipment like respirators…
A private legal practice in Birmingham with only two employees and no website offering to provide scrubs and gowns. How?..
A provider of ‘wholesale electronic and telecommunications parts and equipment’ that doesn’t appear to be an active company has offered to provide 250,000 plastic aprons and masks as well as hand sanitiser. They don’t even have a website…
A company only incorporated in February 2020 that has only one director and shareholder. There’s no evidence of it ever having conducted any business…
Good lord, is that half-wit still peddling the same nonsense? We demolished it in five minutes years ago. Even John McDonnell in the end got embarrassed about it.
Guido has looked into what potential PPE providers Labour is asking the Government to explore. Some of these are crackers.
--------------------------
A football agent company run by a professional football agent offering to provide “ventilators”.
A historical clothing company offering to make up to 175 gowns a week – or fewer than one gown per hospital per week. Its products currently include a sixteenth century silk bodice. Gowns need to be single use and made to advanced, exacting specifications from specific fabrics.
A lady called Bella Gonshorovitz who makes clothes to measure and has a Go Fund Me page offering to make up to 500 gowns a week. Just under 1.5 per hospital per week.
The Whent, a Company that exists to reduce dependence on plastic, peculiarly offering to produce tests and also gloves. Medical gloves must be made to exacting specifications and are largely made of plastic. The company currently makes canned mineral water but is now offering to make Covid tests…
An events company in Surrey offering “supplying masks and respirators from China”. The company claims to provide the “ultimate corporate day experience…[with] delicious cuisine from sushi to sandwiches, hot and cold buffets, BBQ, breakfast, snacks and lunch”. Great, just no mention of advanced medical equipment like respirators…
A private legal practice in Birmingham with only two employees and no website offering to provide scrubs and gowns. How?..
A provider of ‘wholesale electronic and telecommunications parts and equipment’ that doesn’t appear to be an active company has offered to provide 250,000 plastic aprons and masks as well as hand sanitiser. They don’t even have a website…
A company only incorporated in February 2020 that has only one director and shareholder. There’s no evidence of it ever having conducted any business…
Not sure how significant it is, but today I had a phone call inviting me to attend a (delayed) 6-month check for cancer: a cystoscopy. This will require a certain amount of PPE for those doing it (normally two or three from memory).
I think PPE shortages are localised. You might be in a lucky area.
Guido has looked into what potential PPE providers Labour is asking the Government to explore. Some of these are crackers. Delboy would be proud.
--------------------------
A football agent company run by a professional football agent offering to provide “ventilators”.
A historical clothing company offering to make up to 175 gowns a week – or fewer than one gown per hospital per week. Its products currently include a sixteenth century silk bodice. Gowns need to be single use and made to advanced, exacting specifications from specific fabrics.
A lady called Bella Gonshorovitz who makes clothes to measure and has a Go Fund Me page offering to make up to 500 gowns a week. Just under 1.5 per hospital per week.
The Whent, a Company that exists to reduce dependence on plastic, peculiarly offering to produce tests and also gloves. Medical gloves must be made to exacting specifications and are largely made of plastic. The company currently makes canned mineral water but is now offering to make Covid tests…
An events company in Surrey offering “supplying masks and respirators from China”. The company claims to provide the “ultimate corporate day experience…[with] delicious cuisine from sushi to sandwiches, hot and cold buffets, BBQ, breakfast, snacks and lunch”. Great, just no mention of advanced medical equipment like respirators…
A private legal practice in Birmingham with only two employees and no website offering to provide scrubs and gowns. How?..
A provider of ‘wholesale electronic and telecommunications parts and equipment’ that doesn’t appear to be an active company has offered to provide 250,000 plastic aprons and masks as well as hand sanitiser. They don’t even have a website…
A company only incorporated in February 2020 that has only one director and shareholder. There’s no evidence of it ever having conducted any business…
Well I was completely wrong about the Furlough application website. It did not crash and was fast It was very easy to use, we asked a question and got an answer within an hour. Our application has been accepted and we will get the money within a week. That is a fantastic effort by the Government.
Are you Dominic Cummings by chance?
I am not sure he is from Southampton
When people on Furlough get paid at the end of the month the Governments ratings will soar.
You may be right, you may be wrong.
Talking of furlough, time to do one I think. I have stayed focused on trying to support the government line, however under the circumstances, propaganda from all sides is becoming really tiresome, but moreso from yourself than most.
Now I wonder if the media will challenge Labour on this dodgy dossier? I will guess not, just as they have repeated the Telegraph and Guardian articles on this.
Not sure how significant it is, but today I had a phone call inviting me to attend a (delayed) 6-month check for cancer: a cystoscopy. This will require a certain amount of PPE for those doing it (normally two or three from memory).
I think PPE shortages are localised. You might be in a lucky area.
It’s more incomplete sets.
What’s the bloody point if you have 10,000 gowns but no masks/face protectors?
Not sure how significant it is, but today I had a phone call inviting me to attend a (delayed) 6-month check for cancer: a cystoscopy. This will require a certain amount of PPE for those doing it (normally two or three from memory).
Its very significant, Hospitals realise that they have the capacity to start reopening some of their services as they are not swamped by Covid-19.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Kendall? C'mon. We're talking the LABOUR party here. But Nandy, yes, maybe. I actually voted for her.
No election until 2021 anyway.
I think that's a pessimistic analysis. Even if Starmer proves as bad a leader as Corbyn I would expect him to be given until 2022 before facing a challenge.
A reminder that, according to the ‘model’ that Henrietta and Eadric were touting around just a few weeks ago, today is the day that we should have been reaching 100 million confirmed Coronavirus cases worldwide.
In fairness to the model, we can't say there aren't 100 million cases worldwide.
For example, Nigeria only has 782 official cases but they have only done 8,000 tests for a population of 196 million people
The ‘model’ was derived from confirmed reported cases, not from actual real world cases (for which no data exists). In the early days, shortage of tests was just as much an issue as now - for example the US. It was a fine illustration of how fiddling around trying to fit a formula to existing mathematical data hoping to project it forward was an utter waste of time. So many ‘chartist’ investors have lost money believing they can do the same.
This is entirely correct, but in fairness, the "model" was "trying" to project confirmed cases based on data then to data now. The early countries had much stronger reporting regimes (except the UK obviously, which is automatically crap at everything) than the ones being hit now.
So in theory it is possible that, if Africa, S America and the developing bits of Asia had the same levels of testing as did Europe, N America and China/Japan/S Korea, then we would be looking at 100m confirmed cases.
Guido has looked into what potential PPE providers Labour is asking the Government to explore. Some of these are crackers. Delboy would be proud.
--------------------------
A football agent company run by a professional football agent offering to provide “ventilators”.
A historical clothing company offering to make up to 175 gowns a week – or fewer than one gown per hospital per week. Its products currently include a sixteenth century silk bodice. Gowns need to be single use and made to advanced, exacting specifications from specific fabrics.
A lady called Bella Gonshorovitz who makes clothes to measure and has a Go Fund Me page offering to make up to 500 gowns a week. Just under 1.5 per hospital per week.
The Whent, a Company that exists to reduce dependence on plastic, peculiarly offering to produce tests and also gloves. Medical gloves must be made to exacting specifications and are largely made of plastic. The company currently makes canned mineral water but is now offering to make Covid tests…
An events company in Surrey offering “supplying masks and respirators from China”. The company claims to provide the “ultimate corporate day experience…[with] delicious cuisine from sushi to sandwiches, hot and cold buffets, BBQ, breakfast, snacks and lunch”. Great, just no mention of advanced medical equipment like respirators…
A private legal practice in Birmingham with only two employees and no website offering to provide scrubs and gowns. How?..
A provider of ‘wholesale electronic and telecommunications parts and equipment’ that doesn’t appear to be an active company has offered to provide 250,000 plastic aprons and masks as well as hand sanitiser. They don’t even have a website…
A company only incorporated in February 2020 that has only one director and shareholder. There’s no evidence of it ever having conducted any business…
So...once you have tested positive for covid using a test from a canned mineral water company, you will be seen by a doctor dressed in sixteenth century silk bodice and if you get really ill put on a ventilator from a football agent.
And these are just from the companies that actually exist, not the spivs who run dormant businesses, who appear to be able to get more medical kit in a single go, than the most powerful nations on earth.
Guido has looked into what potential PPE providers Labour is asking the Government to explore. Some of these are crackers. Delboy would be proud.
--------------------------
A football agent company run by a professional football agent offering to provide “ventilators”.
A historical clothing company offering to make up to 175 gowns a week – or fewer than one gown per hospital per week. Its products currently include a sixteenth century silk bodice. Gowns need to be single use and made to advanced, exacting specifications from specific fabrics.
A lady called Bella Gonshorovitz who makes clothes to measure and has a Go Fund Me page offering to make up to 500 gowns a week. Just under 1.5 per hospital per week.
The Whent, a Company that exists to reduce dependence on plastic, peculiarly offering to produce tests and also gloves. Medical gloves must be made to exacting specifications and are largely made of plastic. The company currently makes canned mineral water but is now offering to make Covid tests…
An events company in Surrey offering “supplying masks and respirators from China”. The company claims to provide the “ultimate corporate day experience…[with] delicious cuisine from sushi to sandwiches, hot and cold buffets, BBQ, breakfast, snacks and lunch”. Great, just no mention of advanced medical equipment like respirators…
A private legal practice in Birmingham with only two employees and no website offering to provide scrubs and gowns. How?..
A provider of ‘wholesale electronic and telecommunications parts and equipment’ that doesn’t appear to be an active company has offered to provide 250,000 plastic aprons and masks as well as hand sanitiser. They don’t even have a website…
A company only incorporated in February 2020 that has only one director and shareholder. There’s no evidence of it ever having conducted any business…
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Anybody but Liz Kendall in that seat she would have lost guaranteed. Tories threw a lot of time and quality at that seat.
I don't think you are in a position to guarantee anything of the sort. Leicester West has been Labour-held at every election since World War 2, and there is nothing in the electoral data over several elections to suggest an exceptional personal vote for Liz Kendall. In 2019 she outperformed Leicester East where Labour's performance is likely to have been depressed by scandal related to Keith Vaz - but she underperformed in relation to Ashworth in Leicester South.
Then there are a number of academics on twitter that like to feed all the new data in and give decent updates on the actual situation, not the media incorrect overview.
Looking at those charts from David Paton, hasn't the decline in UK deaths since 8 April been somewhat more marked than say in Spain, Italy or France, or am I simply clutching at straws here?
Still rather gentle, although it does look trending down. If you compare comparable days (ie deaths recorded for a given day at D+6, thanks to David Paton's excellent chart), it looks like this:
Some representations look steeper because they continue to add deaths to earlier days (ie you can add a further 78 deaths to the 8th of April, because we've picked up an average of nearly 10 deaths on that day for every extra day we've had to gain further data) - which automatically makes the line tilt downwards to the right (we haven't picked up those extra deaths for the 14th, 15th and 16th yet, for example), but that just points to us having had longer to find out about earlier deaths.
The worst representations include the knowingly incomplete data for 17th-21st of April, where we already know that the numbers who died on that day was significantly higher than the figures we have already.
But with that said, it does look to be trending downwards (and additional deaths recorded for given days with more time gathering data seems to be diminishing as well, which is positive).
To be honest, I'm now more interested in hospital admission levels, which has less latency, shows an earlier stage of the disease, and, I believe, is definitely sloping downwards now.
Absolutely no one, bar a few drooling Remoaners, gives a tiny flying fucklet about this EU procurement story. It’s quintessential bubble material. Tittle tattle for eurogeeks.
Testing, yes, care homes, yes, but whether or not the uk was on this or that Brussels committee which doesn’t seem to have done anything anyway....no.
It is an eerie thought, but there are probably nurses and care home workers enjoying the sun today who will die because the government decided not to participate in this scheme.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Like I said, crazy Remoaners care, no one else does. Good luck with your litigation
UK deaths per million inhabitants = 255 Ecuador deaths per million inhabitants = 29
One province of Ecuador reported 5700 excess death in a fortnight, which put the rate at about 1600 per million for that province, and almost certainly amongst the very worst in the world.
A reminder that, according to the ‘model’ that Henrietta and Eadric were touting around just a few weeks ago, today is the day that we should have been reaching 100 million confirmed Coronavirus cases worldwide.
You'd have thought that by now Eadric might have learned that models can tell fibs...
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52381612
Reporting has actually gotten quicker over the past few weeks. At the start of April, they were reporting around 15% of deaths the following day; it's now probably up to about 20% (caveat that the ultimate position of recent days is still very uncertain). The percentage reported after three days has increased from ~60% to more like 80%.
Edit: the speed up in reporting is making the current position look worse than it probably is. Because if you compare deaths after (say) 7 days, then actually you're comparing a higher proportion of the more recent figure with a lower proportion of the earlier one. So the recent one is a bit exaggerated. It's possible that the deaths are coming down a bit faster than it appears; it'll just take a bit of time to be sure.
Unfortunately there isn't a better publicly accessible data source with a line by line breakdown of each case from when the patient was initially diagnosed with age, sex, location, pre-existing conditions (Y/N and severity) and outcome. With that there is probably enough information to come up with an R0 value and do some predictive modelling.
If the EU, as seems to be the case, has secured substantial supplies of PPE and nurses, doctors and care home workers keep dying for lack of it, the government's zealotry will have cost lives for no better reason than the government blindly hates the EU.
Manslaughter charges should follow.
Oh, that's Paris....
Dead nurses are a small price to pay so that you can indulge your hatred of the EU. I should have known that.
My hunch is domestically, and in multi occupancy residences and workplaces, particularly care homes and hospitals.
Good to listen in to Starmer at #PMQs, it was like a QC interrogating a witness. Worked well in a quiet chamber, but maybe less so when all the cheering hoons come back.
From BBC...
A Chinese city near the Russian border has now “imposed a lockdown on all residential communities and villages”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
The city of Harbin, which has a population of 10 million people, is implementing strict measures today, similar to those imposed on the central city of Wuhan during the early stages of the Covid-19 outbreak in January.
From less authoritative source...
Like in Wuhan, people are collapsing on streets in Harbin
https://www.ibtimes.sg/like-wuhan-people-are-collapsing-streets-harbin-china-enforces-emergency-lockdown-43263
Early days though, and tbh I'm not so sure we've replicated the Italian success in drastically squashing the numbers of infections (neither has anyone else of the major outbreak countries).
Ecuador deaths per million inhabitants = 29
Nothing to see, move along....
52 cases my arse.
If it is bad, it also spells huge trouble on a number of different fronts, not least for the stability of China. They have spent the past month pumping out propaganda of how the great leader and the party have beat coronavirus and look how much better we are than the West.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
I thought Bill Gates gave some interesting insights, which was putting the vaccine to one side, we have had a load of medical tech that has been really only getting minimal effort that could be hugely trans-formative. This massive focus on finding a vaccine will turbo charge research in these fields and could well provide a huge number of advances we never though were possible.
And not or.
Fixed that for you.
The scheme was non-exclusive and offered a different way for Britain to access scarce supplies. But it seems that the government had a point of principle to prove and it wasn't going to let the fact that it might well lead to avoidable deaths stop it making that point of principle.
As is the news that government let a lot of PPE go overseas.
We started with around 75-80% of 7 day deaths coming on days 1-3, it's now around 85-90%. I think that is set to continue as well as NHS trusts get better at keeping on top of the reporting.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1252957313524215809?s=20
https://twitter.com/Egbert_PengWu/status/1252958022172844033?s=20
I don't quite share the general approval of Starmer's approach. To me he comes over not only as dull but also as nit-picking and pedantic. He's also a bit transparent when he solemnly says he's not going to play politics and then in the next sentence plays politics.
A big improvement on Corbyn, of course - who wouldn't be? - and also better than Brown or Miliband, who were both dismal. In that sense, he'll do, but I think Boris will be able to bluster his way around him.
https://twitter.com/wearewst/status/1252950400753434626?s=21
No election until 2021 anyway.
(Not wanting to slander you, obvs.)
For example, Nigeria only has 782 official cases but they have only done 8,000 tests for a population of 196 million people
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/22/wealth-tax-rise-could-raise-174bn-tackle-covid-19-expert-says
https://twitter.com/CatrinNye/status/1252911296007352320?s=20
Well, yes.
But it’s good to know it’s not just successful DPPs that have it, Starmer appears to have it too.
Although for doltish leavers I'm sure the irony is lost that PPE did come in eventually. From Turkey.
But they are pissed about stuff going overseas.
As I have said before I think we need a full inquiry after the dust settles to look into this. It should look at politicians, the civil service and the health service.
Significant failures by any of the decision makers in any of those organisations should lead to sackings, not nice retirements or moving them sideways - actual sackings.
As for my 100,000 UK deaths forecast being IYO "optimistic". This rather says something, doesn't it.
--------------------------
A football agent company run by a professional football agent offering to provide “ventilators”.
A historical clothing company offering to make up to 175 gowns a week – or fewer than one gown per hospital per week. Its products currently include a sixteenth century silk bodice. Gowns need to be single use and made to advanced, exacting specifications from specific fabrics.
A lady called Bella Gonshorovitz who makes clothes to measure and has a Go Fund Me page offering to make up to 500 gowns a week. Just under 1.5 per hospital per week.
The Whent, a Company that exists to reduce dependence on plastic, peculiarly offering to produce tests and also gloves. Medical gloves must be made to exacting specifications and are largely made of plastic. The company currently makes canned mineral water but is now offering to make Covid tests…
An events company in Surrey offering “supplying masks and respirators from China”. The company claims to provide the “ultimate corporate day experience…[with] delicious cuisine from sushi to sandwiches, hot and cold buffets, BBQ, breakfast, snacks and lunch”. Great, just no mention of advanced medical equipment like respirators…
A private legal practice in Birmingham with only two employees and no website offering to provide scrubs and gowns. How?..
A provider of ‘wholesale electronic and telecommunications parts and equipment’ that doesn’t appear to be an active company has offered to provide 250,000 plastic aprons and masks as well as hand sanitiser. They don’t even have a website…
A company only incorporated in February 2020 that has only one director and shareholder. There’s no evidence of it ever having conducted any business…
https://order-order.com/2020/04/22/rachel-reeves-sends-government-wild-ppe-goose-chase/
They already are doing 10,000s of visors for the NHS, by the looks of their twitter account and blog.
Talking of furlough, time to do one I think. I have stayed focused on trying to support the government line, however under the circumstances, propaganda from all sides is becoming really tiresome, but moreso from yourself than most.
What’s the bloody point if you have 10,000 gowns but no masks/face protectors?
So in theory it is possible that, if Africa, S America and the developing bits of Asia had the same levels of testing as did Europe, N America and China/Japan/S Korea, then we would be looking at 100m confirmed cases.
And these are just from the companies that actually exist, not the spivs who run dormant businesses, who appear to be able to get more medical kit in a single go, than the most powerful nations on earth.
If you compare comparable days (ie deaths recorded for a given day at D+6, thanks to David Paton's excellent chart), it looks like this:
Some representations look steeper because they continue to add deaths to earlier days (ie you can add a further 78 deaths to the 8th of April, because we've picked up an average of nearly 10 deaths on that day for every extra day we've had to gain further data) - which automatically makes the line tilt downwards to the right (we haven't picked up those extra deaths for the 14th, 15th and 16th yet, for example), but that just points to us having had longer to find out about earlier deaths.
The worst representations include the knowingly incomplete data for 17th-21st of April, where we already know that the numbers who died on that day was significantly higher than the figures we have already.
But with that said, it does look to be trending downwards (and additional deaths recorded for given days with more time gathering data seems to be diminishing as well, which is positive).
To be honest, I'm now more interested in hospital admission levels, which has less latency, shows an earlier stage of the disease, and, I believe, is definitely sloping downwards now.