A Chinese city near the Russian border has now “imposed a lockdown on all residential communities and villages”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
The city of Harbin, which has a population of 10 million people, is implementing strict measures today, similar to those imposed on the central city of Wuhan during the early stages of the Covid-19 outbreak in January.
From less authoritative source...
Like in Wuhan, people are collapsing on streets in Harbin
If the government had any sense, they would address the dodgy dossier at the press conference and give very clear examples of why they didn't engage. Nobody in their right mind is going to put up money sight unseen for ventilators from a football agent or hand over money to companies that have less turnover than a car booter.
This is what Bad Al would do, find the most glaring of mistakes, and just repeat them restlessly.
If the government had any sense, they would address the dodgy dossier at the press conference and give very clear examples of why they didn't engage. Nobody in their right mind is going to put up money sight unseen for ventilators from a football agent or hand over money to companies that have less turnover than a car booter.
I was just thinking this, but knowing the government they probably won't...
So Starmer's first PMQs outing didn't really hit the spot for the PB glitterati. The fake news outlets seemed to like it though.
You should read the contemporary comments - across the political spectrum positive for Starmer as a refreshing improvement from the dire Corbyn.
Well yes, but that's an extremely low bar.
I don't quite share the general approval of Starmer's approach. To me he comes over not only as dull but also as nit-picking and pedantic. He's also a bit transparent when he solemnly says he's not going to play politics and then in the next sentence plays politics.
A big improvement on Corbyn, of course - who wouldn't be? - and also better than Brown or Miliband, who were both dismal. In that sense, he'll do, but I think Boris will be able to bluster his way around him.
The big loser today was Blackford. Corbyn helped make him look statesmanlike and measured. Starmer makes him look like a blustering buffoon.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Anybody but Liz Kendall in that seat she would have lost guaranteed. Tories threw a lot of time and quality at that seat.
I don't think you are in a position to guarantee anything of the sort. Leicester West has been Labour-held at every election since World War 2, and there is nothing in the electoral data over several elections to suggest an exceptional personal vote for Liz Kendall. In 2019 she outperformed Leicester East where Labour's performance is likely to have been depressed by scandal related to Keith Vaz - but she underperformed in relation to Ashworth in Leicester South.
Oh. I see. We're leading on the "Seat XYZ has been Labour for ever..." line.
If the government had any sense, they would address the dodgy dossier at the press conference and give very clear examples of why they didn't engage. Nobody in their right mind is going to put up money sight unseen for ventilators from a football agent or hand over money to companies that have less turnover than a car booter.
I was just thinking this, but knowing the government they probably won't...
Van-Tam is the only one that gets put up that doesn't take any shit.
Call on LBC last night from someone who had personally tried to sell PPE to the Govt.
He said total farce - approx 90% of offers (including his!) are from importers, all saying they will source the PPE from the same factories, mainly in China.
He said each importer making an offer has to say WHICH factory they will get their PPE from - Govt insists on this information.
So as soon as Govt sees numerous duplications of different importers all saying the same factory they can put all those proposals in the bin as they aren't additional sources of PPE at all.
Then there are a number of academics on twitter that like to feed all the new data in and give decent updates on the actual situation, not the media incorrect overview.
Looking at those charts from David Paton, hasn't the decline in UK deaths since 8 April been somewhat more marked than say in Spain, Italy or France, or am I simply clutching at straws here?
Still rather gentle, although it does look trending down. If you compare comparable days (ie deaths recorded for a given day at D+6, thanks to David Paton's excellent chart), it looks like this:
Some representations look steeper because they continue to add deaths to earlier days (ie you can add a further 78 deaths to the 8th of April, because we've picked up an average of nearly 10 deaths on that day for every extra day we've had to gain further data) - which automatically makes the line tilt downwards to the right (we haven't picked up those extra deaths for the 14th, 15th and 16th yet, for example), but that just points to us having had longer to find out about earlier deaths.
The worst representations include the knowingly incomplete data for 17th-21st of April, where we already know that the numbers who died on that day was significantly higher than the figures we have already.
But with that said, it does look to be trending downwards (and additional deaths recorded for given days with more time gathering data seems to be diminishing as well, which is positive).
To be honest, I'm now more interested in hospital admission levels, which has less latency, shows an earlier stage of the disease, and, I believe, is definitely sloping downwards now.
Agreed. More evidence of this from Scotland earlier today - ICU patients down to 155 (from > 200 a week or so ago) and also a large fall in hospitalised patients. The Northern Ireland dashboard (which annoyingly seems to have disappeared!) gave very nice data on hospital capacity etc.
Call on LBC last night from someone who had personally tried to sell PPE to the Govt.
He said total farce - approx 90% of offers (including his!) are from importers, all saying they will source the PPE from the same factories, mainly in China.
He said each importer making an offer has to say WHICH factory they will get their PPE from - Govt insists on this information.
So as soon as Govt sees numerous duplications of different importers all saying the same factory they can put all those proposals in the bin as they aren't additional sources of PPE at all.
Well the Guardian story from last night....
Delboy Enterprises, no website, no online presence, no obvious business, has a mate in Holland, who sells eco-toilets, says they can get masks. Now clearly Dutch bloke knows some fixer in China, who knows somebody who runs a factory.
So that's 3 middle men, and Delboy contacts the government and says I can get you these in 3 weeks time and I want the money now. And no surprise the government park him.
The ventilators were the same, either total made up nonsense, or all coming from the same place, which weren't suitable for the UK.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
If the government had any sense, they would address the dodgy dossier at the press conference and give very clear examples of why they didn't engage. Nobody in their right mind is going to put up money sight unseen for ventilators from a football agent or hand over money to companies that have less turnover than a car booter.
This is what Bad Al would do, find the most glaring of mistakes, and just repeat them restlessly.
What these people are doing should be criminal, they are just wasting the time and effort of people who are already extremely busy in order to make a quick buck.
A reminder that, according to the ‘model’ that Henrietta and Eadric were touting around just a few weeks ago, today is the day that we should have been reaching 100 million confirmed Coronavirus cases worldwide.
In fairness to the model, we can't say there aren't 100 million cases worldwide.
For example, Nigeria only has 782 official cases but they have only done 8,000 tests for a population of 196 million people
The ‘model’ was derived from confirmed reported cases, not from actual real world cases (for which no data exists). In the early days, shortage of tests was just as much an issue as now - for example the US. It was a fine illustration of how fiddling around trying to fit a formula to existing mathematical data hoping to project it forward was an utter waste of time. So many ‘chartist’ investors have lost money believing they can do the same.
This is entirely correct, but in fairness, the "model" was "trying" to project confirmed cases based on data then to data now. The early countries had much stronger reporting regimes (except the UK obviously, which is automatically crap at everything) than the ones being hit now.
So in theory it is possible that, if Africa, S America and the developing bits of Asia had the same levels of testing as did Europe, N America and China/Japan/S Korea, then we would be looking at 100m confirmed cases.
If there are the current 2 million confirmed cases in those countries with testing regimes but a further 98 million current cases in those countries without, we are going to see an absolutely huge uptick in global deaths in two or three weeks time.
As against the probability that the model’s idiotic number-fiddling was always nonsense from the start. As many of us said at the time.
If the government had any sense, they would address the dodgy dossier at the press conference and give very clear examples of why they didn't engage. Nobody in their right mind is going to put up money sight unseen for ventilators from a football agent or hand over money to companies that have less turnover than a car booter.
This is what Bad Al would do, find the most glaring of mistakes, and just repeat them restlessly.
What these people are doing should be criminal, they are just wasting the time and effort of people who are already extremely busy in order to make a quick buck.
And now they are being legitimised and egged on by the media and the Labour party.
If the government had any sense, they would address the dodgy dossier at the press conference and give very clear examples of why they didn't engage. Nobody in their right mind is going to put up money sight unseen for ventilators from a football agent or hand over money to companies that have less turnover than a car booter.
This is what Bad Al would do, find the most glaring of mistakes, and just repeat them restlessly.
What these people are doing should be criminal, they are just wasting the time and effort of people who are already extremely busy in order to make a quick buck.
And now they are being legitimised and egged on by the media and the Labour party.
Where's Roger Cooke when you need him? Doorstepping some of these people seems exactly what is needed.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
If the government had any sense, they would address the dodgy dossier at the press conference and give very clear examples of why they didn't engage. Nobody in their right mind is going to put up money sight unseen for ventilators from a football agent or hand over money to companies that have less turnover than a car booter.
This is what Bad Al would do, find the most glaring of mistakes, and just repeat them restlessly.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
It's pure fantasy. And I'd hold the election in December (of 2024) again, just for laughs.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
I really don't see an election before Autumn 2023 at the earliest - with the first half of 2024 being more likely. Even a change of PM would not require that - Macmillan became PM in January 1957 yet no election took place until October 1959. Similarly Callaghan took office in April 1976 but no election held until May 1979. I see no case on policy grounds either - Blair did not call an election in 2003 to gain a mandate for his war of joint aggression in Iraq.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
It's pure fantasy. And I'll hold the election in December (of 2024) again, just for laughs.
Any theory of an early GE based on perceived need for an overt mandate for anything is mistaken. Governments will do what they have a majority for and wont go early unless they see an advantage. This gov is unlikely to think it can improve that much more than what it already has in terms of a majority, so taking the risk would be crazy, and splitting and losing majority will be tough. Mandate wont come into a discussion of relevant factors.
The south bank of the Tyne pulling the rest of the North East down as usual!
Fastest way to wind up my friend in Gateshead?
"It's nice to be back in Newcastle"
In my experience, Newcastle United fans that live in Gateshead are happy to say that they live in what is essentially Greater Newcastle. Sunderland fans however will deny it forever, even if they can see St James Park from their window.
The south bank of the Tyne pulling the rest of the North East down as usual!
Fastest way to wind up my friend in Gateshead?
"It's nice to be back in Newcastle"
In my experience, Newcastle United fans that live in Gateshead are happy to say that they live in what is essentially Greater Newcastle. Sunderland fans however will deny it forever, even if they can see St James Park from their window.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Anybody but Liz Kendall in that seat she would have lost guaranteed. Tories threw a lot of time and quality at that seat.
I don't think you are in a position to guarantee anything of the sort. Leicester West has been Labour-held at every election since World War 2, and there is nothing in the electoral data over several elections to suggest an exceptional personal vote for Liz Kendall. In 2019 she outperformed Leicester East where Labour's performance is likely to have been depressed by scandal related to Keith Vaz - but she underperformed in relation to Ashworth in Leicester South.
There is a big WWC Brexit vote in Leicester West, not so much in the other Leicester seats. The Tories have no chance in the other 2, other seats similar to Liecester South went in the Midlands. Labour held that due to Liz Kendall, without her it would have gone for sure.
What a surprise, all the usual suspects who were terribly impressed by the likes of CUK, Rory Stewart and the Lib Dems are now terribly impressed by Keir Starmer. Doesn't bode well for his electoral chances.
Wishing on a Starmer! Worse PM ratings than Jezza when Jezza was last an option as PM
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Anybody but Liz Kendall in that seat she would have lost guaranteed. Tories threw a lot of time and quality at that seat.
I don't think you are in a position to guarantee anything of the sort. Leicester West has been Labour-held at every election since World War 2, and there is nothing in the electoral data over several elections to suggest an exceptional personal vote for Liz Kendall. In 2019 she outperformed Leicester East where Labour's performance is likely to have been depressed by scandal related to Keith Vaz - but she underperformed in relation to Ashworth in Leicester South.
There is a big WWC Brexit vote in Leicester West, not so much in the other Leicester seats. The Tories have no chance in the other 2, other seats similar to Liecester South went in the Midlands. Labour held that due to Liz Kendall, without her it would have gone for sure.
Oh god...so all you need to do is spit in a pot. How come nobody tested this before, when they were actually devising the tests?
Because, bureaucracy. Saliva tests have been suggested for some time before this study, but regulators do not habitually move very quickly, and need a good kicking even in the current circumstances to make them do so.
A better multitasker than Hancock might be up to the task.
Then there are a number of academics on twitter that like to feed all the new data in and give decent updates on the actual situation, not the media incorrect overview.
Looking at those charts from David Paton, hasn't the decline in UK deaths since 8 April been somewhat more marked than say in Spain, Italy or France, or am I simply clutching at straws here?
Still rather gentle, although it does look trending down. If you compare comparable days (ie deaths recorded for a given day at D+6, thanks to David Paton's excellent chart), it looks like this:
Some representations look steeper because they continue to add deaths to earlier days (ie you can add a further 78 deaths to the 8th of April, because we've picked up an average of nearly 10 deaths on that day for every extra day we've had to gain further data) - which automatically makes the line tilt downwards to the right (we haven't picked up those extra deaths for the 14th, 15th and 16th yet, for example), but that just points to us having had longer to find out about earlier deaths.
The worst representations include the knowingly incomplete data for 17th-21st of April, where we already know that the numbers who died on that day was significantly higher than the figures we have already.
But with that said, it does look to be trending downwards (and additional deaths recorded for given days with more time gathering data seems to be diminishing as well, which is positive).
To be honest, I'm now more interested in hospital admission levels, which has less latency, shows an earlier stage of the disease, and, I believe, is definitely sloping downwards now.
Our old friend has these... not quite what you asked for
Oh god...so all you need to do is spit in a pot. How come nobody tested this before, when they were actually devising the tests?
Because, bureaucracy. Saliva tests have been suggested for some time before this study, but regulators do not habitually move very quickly, and need a good kicking even in the current circumstances to make them do so.
A better multitasker than Hancock might be up to the task.
I don't just mean the UK, I am surprised Germany didn't try this when they had the various labs devising the tests. Or perhaps they did and their results weren't as good.
maybe. Remember TBlair's fulsome praise for Michael Howard at what I believe was the latter's first PMQ's outing. Fat lot of good that did him.
Yep Howard was a no-hoper from day one and Starmer is the same. Yes the MSM will get right behind him but the silent majority find their own news these days. Yes big problems lie ahead but bigger Unions is not the answer. When you look at the shadow picks where it really counts Chancellor and most important of all in future Education, telling who is chosen. Momentum may have been skinned but Scouse Lenny and Prentice are even more influential.
Who would be good as Labour leader then?
Who has the best chance of GTTO next time?
Out of what came forward I would have given Nandy a shot. In terms of the best they have in the parliamentary party Liz Kendall I could vote for. I know she has the biggest personal constituency vote of any Labour MP in the East Midlands. She could take that appeal out much further but doesn't fit the mould with the Union high command. That Starmer hasn't used her is another clue.
Interesting that you say that re-Liz Kendall when the swing against her in Leicester West was double the average anti-Labour swing in 2019.
Anybody but Liz Kendall in that seat she would have lost guaranteed. Tories threw a lot of time and quality at that seat.
I don't think you are in a position to guarantee anything of the sort. Leicester West has been Labour-held at every election since World War 2, and there is nothing in the electoral data over several elections to suggest an exceptional personal vote for Liz Kendall. In 2019 she outperformed Leicester East where Labour's performance is likely to have been depressed by scandal related to Keith Vaz - but she underperformed in relation to Ashworth in Leicester South.
There is a big WWC Brexit vote in Leicester West, not so much in the other Leicester seats. The Tories have no chance in the other 2, other seats similar to Liecester South went in the Midlands. Labour held that due to Liz Kendall, without her it would have gone for sure.
West sorry
Leicester South was a Tory seat held by Tom Boardman until October 1974 and regained by the Tories in 1983. Leicester East was held by Peter Bruinvels for the Tories 1983 - 1987.
Ought to speed up testing procedures if acted on. twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1252950302333992962
Oh god...so all you need to do is spit in a pot. How come nobody tested this before, when they were actually devising the tests?
Because, bureaucracy. Saliva tests have been suggested for some time before this study, but regulators do not habitually move very quickly, and need a good kicking even in the current circumstances to make them do so. A better multitasker than Hancock might be up to the task.
In this case, surely, the regulators were the scientists, in whom some people have deposited great faith: ie the abominal Cummings and his followers.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
Ought to speed up testing procedures if acted on. twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1252950302333992962
Oh god...so all you need to do is spit in a pot. How come nobody tested this before, when they were actually devising the tests?
Because, bureaucracy. Saliva tests have been suggested for some time before this study, but regulators do not habitually move very quickly, and need a good kicking even in the current circumstances to make them do so. A better multitasker than Hancock might be up to the task.
In this case, surely, the regulators were the scientists, in whom some people have deposited great faith: ie the abominal Cummings and his followers.
So who would you rely on for advice on testing procedure - Gwynth Paltrow?
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
mmmm
I think this song sums up the idea of an election next year
A bit of simple predictive analysis - I think the 7 day death figure for the 16th will be around 605, for the 17th around 560 and for 18th around 520. Between 490 and 510 for the 19th.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
But Governments have often been unpopular - sometimes massively so as evidenced by the Major Government 1993 - 1997 and the Wilson Government 1967 - 1970 - yet could not be forced to hold an election .
What a surprise, all the usual suspects who were terribly impressed by the likes of CUK, Rory Stewart and the Lib Dems are now terribly impressed by Keir Starmer. Doesn't bode well for his electoral chances.
Wishing on a Starmer! Worse PM ratings than Jezza when Jezza was last an option as PM
Starmer's first outing set the tone and asked forensic questions in a professional manner. It was an impressive debut but of course this is only the beginning, and lots of hurdles to overcome to finally slay Corbynism and antisemitism.
Additionally if he has supplied a dodgy dossier on PPE that could rebound, but I for one feel the lifting of Corbyn's toxicity as a great relief
I have to be careful as HYUFD will try to banish me to labour (as I voted Blair twice) or even worse the Lib Dems ( who) but rest assured HYUFD, I am only voting conservative for the foreseable future
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
It doesn't need to wash with "The Public", it needs to wash with 365 Tory MPs, more than half of whom need to vote against the government to trigger an election.
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win, you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund at Christmas.
How much have we spent on Dysons useless Ventilators?
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
Unless you know differently, £0 on Dyson ventilators. Dyson have incurred all the cost. You don't seem to get this idea of competitive development. And if they have paid anything, I think unlike a dodgy Chinese antibody kit maker, they will get the money back.
When it comes to breathing support devices, you are barking up the wrong tree. It is a win for the government. No shortages and development of a new CPAP device that is more effective treatment.
Now drive-through testings, that is a different kettle of fish. To only be able to setup 26, with an ambition of 50 in a month, that is pathetic. There are bloody wedding events planners who can setup more marquees than that in a month.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
It doesn't need to wash with "The Public", it needs to wash with 365 Tory MPs, more than half of whom need to vote against the government to trigger an election.
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund.
I agree - 'the Public' will have to lump it and confine itself to big anti-Government swings at by elections and local elections.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
It doesn't need to wash with "The Public", it needs to wash with 365 Tory MPs, more than half of whom need to vote against the government to trigger an election.
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win, you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund at Christmas.
But what if EYE win?
That's £660 and you're in the Middle East. I'm not coming over there.
How much have we spent on Dysons useless Ventilators?
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
If as it now seems, ventilators are not the best thing for Coronavirus sufferers, I am sure Dyson will provide a credit note for something else. It's still a bung but it won't be wasted money at least.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
I have no idea where you get this fantasy from but it is amusing
A bit of simple predictive analysis - I think the 7 day death figure for the 16th will be around 605, for the 17th around 560 and for 18th around 520. Between 490 and 510 for the 19th.
"Final" figures (14 days after date of death) for those days:
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
But Governments have often been unpopular - sometimes massively so as evidenced by the Major Government 1993 - 1997 and the Wilson Government 1967 - 1970 - yet could not be forced to hold an election .
Well exactly. The idea a government cannot bear public discontent in resisting a fresh election is preposterous. The Tories have managed to get into a position where they can have 14 years at least in power, and given their majority size a decent change of even more than that. If they become massively unpopular it only strengthens the desire to hold on until the last moment in the hope that something comes up which will change their circumstances.
They have a majority large enough to survive complete u-turning on their previous plans. So the only question is whether they think they can improve their position with an election, and would any such improvement be worth the risk of an election.
The answer there is possibly, and definitely not.
It's also preposterous to suggest it 'almost impossible' to implement necessary measures without a fresh and specific mandate. Perhaps it would be easier, though I have doubts about that, but governments have a mandate to react to circumstances as it is (for those that care about whatever they think they mean by 'mandate'), so in response to an emergency there isn't even a need to seek a fresh one. For better and worse this is the parliament we've chosen to govern us, and they have every reason to seek whatever solutions they think appropriate.
You don't need a fresh parliament every time the situation changes from that at the time of the election.
How much have we spent on Dysons useless Ventilators?
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
If as it now seems, ventilators are not the best thing for Coronavirus sufferers, I am sure Dyson will provide a credit note for something else. It's still a bung but it won't be wasted money at least.
Having seen what Dyson can do to a loosely fitted carpet, I was from the beginning reluctant to see his contraptions fixed up to people’s lungs.
I am curious given that most of the press is anti Labour - Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Express, Times - why do you think that is?
Why is the Mail Online attacking the government's handling of this crisis on a daily basis? Their attack on Helen Whatley today was vitriolic. Perhaps you don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
How much have we spent on Dysons useless Ventilators?
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
If as it now seems, ventilators are not the best thing for Coronavirus sufferers, I am sure Dyson will provide a credit note for something else. It's still a bung but it won't be wasted money at least.
Having seen what Dyson can do to a loosely fitted carpet, I was from the beginning reluctant to see his contraptions fixed up to people’s lungs.
How much have we spent on Dysons useless Ventilators?
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
If as it now seems, ventilators are not the best thing for Coronavirus sufferers, I am sure Dyson will provide a credit note for something else. It's still a bung but it won't be wasted money at least.
Having seen what Dyson can do to a loosely fitted carpet, I was from the beginning reluctant to see his contraptions fixed up to people’s lungs.
I am curious given that most of the press is anti Labour - Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Express, Times - why do you think that is?
Why is the Mail Online attacking the government's handling of this crisis on a daily basis? Their attack on Helen Whatley today was vitriolic. Perhaps you don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
I have no idea where you get this fantasy from but it is amusing
You have a very well developed imagination
This government is in place until 2024
They will have to implement caring Labour policies then. I do not think the country has the stomach for more austerity - unless specifically mandated at a GE - or indeed for any cuts at all to the living standards of the bottom quartile. I think there could be widespread civil disorder.
No....antibody tests at the moment are just as time consuming as PCR. Nobody in the world has ability to do in them in the community at any level of accuracy. They all still need to be processed in the lab.
How much have we spent on Dysons useless Ventilators?
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
If as it now seems, ventilators are not the best thing for Coronavirus sufferers, I am sure Dyson will provide a credit note for something else. It's still a bung but it won't be wasted money at least.
Having seen what Dyson can do to a loosely fitted carpet, I was from the beginning reluctant to see his contraptions fixed up to people’s lungs.
It's easy to be snarky but so far the Ventilator Challenge has resulted in two copied designs in production with some delivered already, a new CPAP machine, and there are two new ventilator designs going through approval (one of them the Dyson design).
That is the complete opposite from a failure, we could do with a whole load more failures like this.
So- a nurse that house shares with my son and his girlfriend ended her 14 days quarantine on Saturday (son was ill - both the nurses had to take 14 days out).
Went back to work Monday and is symptomatic today............
Turns out she also met a mate and the mates brother on Saturday.......
So the NHS has lost the services of 2 nurses for at least 28 days out of a space of a month or so.
Ironically my son started a new job this week and now he will be quarantined too.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
I have no idea where you get this fantasy from but it is amusing
You have a very well developed imagination
This government is in place until 2024
They will have to implement caring Labour policies then. I do not think the country has the stomach for more austerity - unless specifically mandated at a GE - or indeed for any cuts at all to the living standards of the bottom quartile. I think there could be widespread civil disorder.
Ought to speed up testing procedures if acted on. twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1252950302333992962
Oh god...so all you need to do is spit in a pot. How come nobody tested this before, when they were actually devising the tests?
Because, bureaucracy. Saliva tests have been suggested for some time before this study, but regulators do not habitually move very quickly, and need a good kicking even in the current circumstances to make them do so. A better multitasker than Hancock might be up to the task.
In this case, surely, the regulators were the scientists, in whom some people have deposited great faith: ie the abominal Cummings and his followers.
How much have we spent on Dysons useless Ventilators?
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
If as it now seems, ventilators are not the best thing for Coronavirus sufferers, I am sure Dyson will provide a credit note for something else. It's still a bung but it won't be wasted money at least.
Having seen what Dyson can do to a loosely fitted carpet, I was from the beginning reluctant to see his contraptions fixed up to people’s lungs.
It's easy to be snarky but so far the Ventilator Challenge has resulted in two copied designs in production with some delivered already, a new CPAP machine, and there are two new ventilator designs going through approval (one of them the Dyson design).
That is the complete opposite from a failure, we could do with a whole load more failures like this.
If we had done as well on testing and PPE as the ventilators / CPAP masks, the media would be back to complaining about the government advice wasn't clear enough on how long of a dog walk was allowed.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
I have no idea where you get this fantasy from but it is amusing
You have a very well developed imagination
This government is in place until 2024
They will have to implement caring Labour policies then. I do not think the country has the stomach for more austerity - unless specifically mandated at a GE - or indeed for any cuts at all to the living standards of the bottom quartile. I think there could be widespread civil disorder.
The government doesn't have to do any such damned thing. That's the difference between 'winning the argument' and winning the election - the losers get to make impotent demands, and we get to laugh at them
So- a nurse that house shares with my son and his girlfriend ended her 14 days quarantine on Saturday (son was ill - both the nurses had to take 14 days out).
Went back to work Monday and is symptomatic today............
Turns out she also met a mate and the mates brother on Saturday.......
So the NHS has lost the services of 2 nurses for at least 28 days out of a space of a month or so.
Ironically my son started a new job this week and now he will be quarantined too.
And they just been told no tests to spare - despite a drive thru operation in Ipswich
So- a nurse that house shares with my son and his girlfriend ended her 14 days quarantine on Saturday (son was ill - both the nurses had to take 14 days out).
Went back to work Monday and is symptomatic today............
Turns out she also met a mate and the mates brother on Saturday.......
So the NHS has lost the services of 2 nurses for at least 28 days out of a space of a month or so.
Ironically my son started a new job this week and now he will be quarantined too.
People do not cope well being locked in buildings. This is happening all over the country. What on earth do you expect?
So- a nurse that house shares with my son and his girlfriend ended her 14 days quarantine on Saturday (son was ill - both the nurses had to take 14 days out).
Went back to work Monday and is symptomatic today............
Turns out she also met a mate and the mates brother on Saturday.......
So the NHS has lost the services of 2 nurses for at least 28 days out of a space of a month or so.
Ironically my son started a new job this week and now he will be quarantined too.
People do not cope well being locked in buildings. This is happening all over the country. What on earth do you expect?
I'm not sure what you think I am saying tbh - What do I expect?????
If this is the sort of evidence Starmer relied on as head of CPS, no wonder all those historic child sex cases were a disaster.
Should have had Hancock in charge he would have promised the earth and delivered fuck all
Hancock has made mistakes but he has stopped the NHS being overwhelmed to be fair
The main policy that seems to have avoided the NHS being overwhelmed was the move to lockdown, which only happened a week or so after most to Europe had already brought one in and with the likes of the Cheltenham Festival continuing in the meantime. The government hardly deserves credit for being the last to jump.
Nor does it deserve credit for the early cessation of contact tracing, nor the disregarding of widespread testing initially, nor the failure to ramp up testing to match capacity, nor the failure to order in PPE initially, nor the ignoring of locally sourced PPE, nor the absence of proper quarantining, nor the failure to protect residents and staff in care homes, nor the failure to quickly bring in technological fixes to contact tracing (aka South Korea).
In terms of health policy, if not the economic response, it's been a total omnishambles so far.
So- a nurse that house shares with my son and his girlfriend ended her 14 days quarantine on Saturday (son was ill - both the nurses had to take 14 days out).
Went back to work Monday and is symptomatic today............
Turns out she also met a mate and the mates brother on Saturday.......
So the NHS has lost the services of 2 nurses for at least 28 days out of a space of a month or so.
Ironically my son started a new job this week and now he will be quarantined too.
People do not cope well being locked in buildings. This is happening all over the country. What on earth do you expect?
Comments
https://www.ft.com/content/c1ddd0f4-1faf-4a50-a5ce-dad3ba341870
"Harbin outbreak threatens China’s coronavirus recovery"
or Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-harbin/chinese-city-fighting-biggest-coronavirus-outbreak-tightens-travel-curbs-idUSKCN22409D?feedType=RSS&
"Chinese city tightens coronavirus travel curbs in biggest outbreak"
This is what Bad Al would do, find the most glaring of mistakes, and just repeat them restlessly.
How quaint.
Poundland pregnancy test sales up by 25% since the start of coronavirus lockdown.
https://www.itv.com/news/central/2020-04-22/poundland-pregnancy-test-sales-up-by-25-since-the-start-of-coronavirus-lockdown/
He said total farce - approx 90% of offers (including his!) are from importers, all saying they will source the PPE from the same factories, mainly in China.
He said each importer making an offer has to say WHICH factory they will get their PPE from - Govt insists on this information.
So as soon as Govt sees numerous duplications of different importers all saying the same factory they can put all those proposals in the bin as they aren't additional sources of PPE at all.
Delboy Enterprises, no website, no online presence, no obvious business, has a mate in Holland, who sells eco-toilets, says they can get masks. Now clearly Dutch bloke knows some fixer in China, who knows somebody who runs a factory.
So that's 3 middle men, and Delboy contacts the government and says I can get you these in 3 weeks time and I want the money now. And no surprise the government park him.
The ventilators were the same, either total made up nonsense, or all coming from the same place, which weren't suitable for the UK.
Yesterday cumulative total 17,337. Today = 18,100
18,100 - 17,337 = 763.
As against the probability that the model’s idiotic number-fiddling was always nonsense from the start. As many of us said at the time.
"It's nice to be back in Newcastle"
https://www.diabetes.org.uk/in_your_area/london/london-region-news-/new-figures-rise-diabetes
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
We’re all Saudis now.
Saliva tests have been suggested for some time before this study, but regulators do not habitually move very quickly, and need a good kicking even in the current circumstances to make them do so.
A better multitasker than Hancock might be up to the task.
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1252635468744843267?s=20
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1252972819295670272?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aefbH624kA
I think this song sums up the idea of an election next year
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSkXLOi51nI
Additionally if he has supplied a dodgy dossier on PPE that could rebound, but I for one feel the lifting of Corbyn's toxicity as a great relief
I have to be careful as HYUFD will try to banish me to labour (as I voted Blair twice) or even worse the Lib Dems ( who) but rest assured HYUFD, I am only voting conservative for the foreseable future
Holby City a fictional Hospital has provided more Ventilators to the NHS than the Tory Donor Dyson
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win, you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund at Christmas.
When it comes to breathing support devices, you are barking up the wrong tree. It is a win for the government. No shortages and development of a new CPAP device that is more effective treatment.
Now drive-through testings, that is a different kettle of fish. To only be able to setup 26, with an ambition of 50 in a month, that is pathetic. There are bloody wedding events planners who can setup more marquees than that in a month.
GE in 2021. I have posted some money on Betfair asking for 34.
That is (easily) the lowest bid in the market.
So, anyone who thinks it's fantasy island - hit me!
That's £660 and you're in the Middle East. I'm not coming over there.
You have a very well developed imagination
This government is in place until 2024
16th ~ 650
17th ~ 600
18th ~ 550
Not enough data for the 19th.
On the other hand, I managed to lay at 9.8 the other day (and tipped it on here).
Govt has today reported Pillar 4 tests for first time (though some took place on earlier days).
Yet nobody seems to have said anything!
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths
They have a majority large enough to survive complete u-turning on their previous plans. So the only question is whether they think they can improve their position with an election, and would any such improvement be worth the risk of an election.
The answer there is possibly, and definitely not.
It's also preposterous to suggest it 'almost impossible' to implement necessary measures without a fresh and specific mandate. Perhaps it would be easier, though I have doubts about that, but governments have a mandate to react to circumstances as it is (for those that care about whatever they think they mean by 'mandate'), so in response to an emergency there isn't even a need to seek a fresh one. For better and worse this is the parliament we've chosen to govern us, and they have every reason to seek whatever solutions they think appropriate.
You don't need a fresh parliament every time the situation changes from that at the time of the election.
I am curious given that most of the press is anti Labour - Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Express, Times - why do you think that is?
Why is the Mail Online attacking the government's handling of this crisis on a daily basis? Their attack on Helen Whatley today was vitriolic.
Perhaps you don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
Even then, 51 in a day, is pathetic.
https://twitter.com/ben_rumsby/status/1252977634474065921?s=21
That is the complete opposite from a failure, we could do with a whole load more failures like this.
Went back to work Monday and is symptomatic today............
Turns out she also met a mate and the mates brother on Saturday.......
So the NHS has lost the services of 2 nurses for at least 28 days out of a space of a month or so.
Ironically my son started a new job this week and now he will be quarantined too.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/guidance-on-coronavirus-covid-19-tests-and-testing-kits
Unfortunately, it is seems to be the lumbering bureaucracy of Public Health England which is in charge of testing for the virus itself:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-guidance-for-clinical-diagnostic-laboratories
Nor does it deserve credit for the early cessation of contact tracing, nor the disregarding of widespread testing initially, nor the failure to ramp up testing to match capacity, nor the failure to order in PPE initially, nor the ignoring of locally sourced PPE, nor the absence of proper quarantining, nor the failure to protect residents and staff in care homes, nor the failure to quickly bring in technological fixes to contact tracing (aka South Korea).
In terms of health policy, if not the economic response, it's been a total omnishambles so far.