At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
It doesn't need to wash with "The Public", it needs to wash with 365 Tory MPs, more than half of whom need to vote against the government to trigger an election.
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win, you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund at Christmas.
But what if EYE win?
That's £660 and you're in the Middle East. I'm not coming over there.
Fair enough, hope someone matches you on Betfair than.
The one that got away. Ah well.
Let's think of a gentle and fair even money £20 bet to do instead. One that settles this year.
I'll revert with a proposal.
I'm happy to bet with you, if you're happy to bet with me? A more fun bet paid to the site is fine, if £660 is too much.
No it's fine. But it's my £20 to your £660. Wanted to make double sure you are OK with that sort of sum.
So if you win - which you will - I donate £20 on your behalf to PB Xmas 2021.
And if I win - which I just might - what happens then with the £660?
Whatever you want me to do with it! (Xmas 2020, nine months from now).
I am curious given that most of the press is anti Labour - Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Express, Times - why do you think that is?
Why is the Mail Online attacking the government's handling of this crisis on a daily basis? Their attack on Helen Whatley today was vitriolic. Perhaps you don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
Because they need a story to justify themselves.
hWy don't they run positive stories then?
As if that would sell copies/clicks
Didn't stop them running endless positive Brexit stories or their daily sainted Katherine & William puff pieces.
Why so negative on the government's performance in this crisis? As I said you just don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
Let's see if any paper picks up on how bollocks this letter is then. I predict it will be zero because the more sensational the story is, the more copies/clicks it generates.
The Mail or Telegraph wouldn't hesitate to attack the letter if they thought they could get some political mileage out of it.
Which headline do you think will generate more interest "government failings putting nhs workers at risk" or "labour's sexed up letter to the health minister"?
To the readers of the Mail and to the ever dwindling readership of the Telegraph, the latter.
Well, according to Folkhälsomyndigheten, Sweden apparently had 106 deaths on the 9th of April and their scale on that graph doesn't go above 100, so something doesn't look right at first glance.
This graph hasn’t had the last four days updates added, so maybe the lagging deaths for the peak day aren’t there?
I am curious given that most of the press is anti Labour - Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Express, Times - why do you think that is?
Why is the Mail Online attacking the government's handling of this crisis on a daily basis? Their attack on Helen Whatley today was vitriolic. Perhaps you don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
Because they need a story to justify themselves.
hWy don't they run positive stories then?
As if that would sell copies/clicks
Didn't stop them running endless positive Brexit stories or their daily sainted Katherine & William puff pieces.
Why so negative on the government's performance in this crisis? As I said you just don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
Let's see if any paper picks up on how bollocks this letter is then. I predict it will be zero because the more sensational the story is, the more copies/clicks it generates.
The Mail or Telegraph wouldn't hesitate to attack the letter if they thought they could get some political mileage out of it.
Which headline do you think will generate more interest "government failings putting nhs workers at risk" or "labour's sexed up letter to the health minister"?
To the readers of the Mail and to the ever dwindling readership of the Telegraph, the latter.
Na, it's a process story. The other seems more real.
Care home deaths are inevitable according to the CMO because people are coming and going ! Ignoring the fact that if carers had PPE then it wouldn’t be inevitable.
Care home deaths are inevitable according to the CMO because people are coming and going ! Ignoring the fact that if carers had PPE then it wouldn’t be inevitable.
I think that's overestimating PPE. If it was so good there wouldn't be any transmission in hospitals.
The other thing that annoys me about these briefings is the way they always say Britain is doing things better, how wonderful everything British is. Are other countries' governments doing this? Trump of course...
Cant they be honest and just say yes some things have been better elsewhere and we're learning the lessons
That will happen when the media will react calmly and with nuance, and not scream "FAILURE" or "U-TURN" in 150pt letters on the front pages.
It's always someone else's fault
Anyway the UK newspapers are often terrible.
But why say, as I just heard Raab say, "in other democracies when people see the army on the street they are worried, but British people feel reassured" it's so silly and unnecessary and what has it got to do with a coronavirus briefing
@kamski@eristdoof did you see a change in attitude amongst the population in Germany once the discussions about weakening the lockdown started? Is that why the government here are so reluctant to discuss the lockdown perhaps?
Care home deaths are inevitable according to the CMO because people are coming and going ! Ignoring the fact that if carers had PPE then it wouldn’t be inevitable.
People shouldn't come and go then. Lock them down, staff sleep on the premises. Too late now, probably.
Why does this army chap keep saying drive thru testing is really innovative. I remember it being discussed before the UK lockdown started, presumably because it was already being done elsewhere at the time.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
It doesn't need to wash with "The Public", it needs to wash with 365 Tory MPs, more than half of whom need to vote against the government to trigger an election.
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win, you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund at Christmas.
But what if EYE win?
That's £660 and you're in the Middle East. I'm not coming over there.
Fair enough, hope someone matches you on Betfair than.
The one that got away. Ah well.
Let's think of a gentle and fair even money £20 bet to do instead. One that settles this year.
I'll revert with a proposal.
I'm happy to bet with you, if you're happy to bet with me? A more fun bet paid to the site is fine, if £660 is too much.
No it's fine. But it's my £20 to your £660. Wanted to make double sure you are OK with that sort of sum.
So if you win - which you will - I donate £20 on your behalf to PB Xmas 2021.
And if I win - which I just might - what happens then with the £660?
Whatever you want me to do with it! (Xmas 2020, nine months from now).
OK, great. I probably would pop over there.
So we are done!
My £20 vs your £660.
I win if there is a UK general election on or before 31 Dec 2021.
Why does this army chap keep saying drive thru testing is really innovative. I remember it being discussed before the UK lockdown started, presumably because it was already being done elsewhere at the time.
Well's that just bollocks. South Korea were doing it within days of getting up and running. And loads of countries doing it, even the US...but that is probably because they do everything drive-thru, from fast food to banking.
NB - Using the most recent data provided from both sources, as the Swedish source doesn't say what info they had at D+6, in order to be comparable between Sweden and UK
The other thing that annoys me about these briefings is the way they always say Britain is doing things better, how wonderful everything British is. Are other countries' governments doing this? Trump of course...
Cant they be honest and just say yes some things have been better elsewhere and we're learning the lessons
That will happen when the media will react calmly and with nuance, and not scream "FAILURE" or "U-TURN" in 150pt letters on the front pages.
It's always someone else's fault
Anyway the UK newspapers are often terrible.
But why say, as I just heard Raab say, "in other democracies when people see the army on the street they are worried, but British people feel reassured" it's so silly and unnecessary and what has it got to do with a coronavirus briefing
It also misses out a part of the UK which has decidedly mixed feelings about seeing the army on the street.
But that part of the world has been excised from the memories of the Raabsters of this world I daresay.
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
Was talking to some folk in a machine learning group yesterday - fairly intelligent bunch, well read, etc. Amazed to see resistance ....... Americans of course.
Well, according to Folkhälsomyndigheten, Sweden apparently had 106 deaths on the 9th of April and their scale on that graph doesn't go above 100, so something doesn't look right at first glance.
This graph hasn’t had the last four days updates added, so maybe the lagging deaths for the peak day aren’t there?
Possible. I’ve added a graph with the latest data as published today for the dates up to the 16th - both countries assume data more recent is suspect. I’ve also done it as bar graphs, which is better than spiky line graphs for discrete daily data. UK made translucent for ease of comparison.
God, I stopped listening to the questions, but just turned it on...can you guarantee in some hypothetical scenario...lockdown end, lockdown, lockdown,....
Well, my data is straight from the Swedish statistical bods, and without any crafty smoothing but the deaths ascribed by each country to each day as of today’s data. Which doesn’t look quite as similar as Mr Phoenix44 would like it to read, I think.
They are like the hosts out of Westworld, stuck on their loop.
Answer - When it is safe and we dont know when that is yet so stop asking the same stupid question
Whitty just said no vaccine for at least a calendar year BTW
Which is huge. That means we definitely have to deal with at least a second wave. Not that most people didn't think that was the case, but this is chief egghead saying it.
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
I think I would wait a year to see what the longer term effects are.
Given that I am higher risk, I'm probably not even going down the pub without one. So immediately, I'd say
I'm higher risk too, which is why I wouldn't chance a new vaccine, that has been rushed through tests until longer term effects are known. Probably won't go to the pub either.
They are like the hosts out of Westworld, stuck on their loop.
Answer - When it is safe and we dont know when that is yet so stop asking the same stupid question
Whitty just said no vaccine for at least a calendar year BTW
Which is huge. That means we definitely have to deal with at least a second wave. Not that most people didn't think that was the case, but this is chief egghead saying it.
Don't forget the antivirals... that can help manage future waves a lot better. The vaccine is one part of the puzzle, but only one part.
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
I think I would wait a year to see what the longer term effects are.
Given that I am higher risk, I'm probably not even going down the pub without one. So immediately, I'd say
I'm higher risk too, which is why I wouldn't chance a new vaccine, that has been rushed through tests until longer term effects are known. Probably won't go the pub either.
Interesting given your attitude to Alpine holiday only a month or so ago.
They are like the hosts out of Westworld, stuck on their loop.
Answer - When it is safe and we dont know when that is yet so stop asking the same stupid question
Whitty just said no vaccine for at least a calendar year BTW
Which is huge. That means we definitely have to deal with at least a second wave. Not that most people didn't think that was the case, but this is chief egghead saying it.
Don't forget the antivirals... that can help manage future waves a lot better. The vaccine is one part of the puzzle, but only one part.
Sure. But no eradication, no vaccine, it does mean the government need to get arse in gear preparing. All the mistakes made this time around can not be repeated.
They are like the hosts out of Westworld, stuck on their loop.
Answer - When it is safe and we dont know when that is yet so stop asking the same stupid question
Whitty just said no vaccine for at least a calendar year BTW
Which is huge. That means we definitely have to deal with at least a second wave. Not that most people didn't think that was the case, but this is chief egghead saying it.
Don't forget the antivirals... that can help manage future waves a lot better. The vaccine is one part of the puzzle, but only one part.
Or, 50% of us have had it already without noticing.
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
I think I would wait a year to see what the longer term effects are.
Given that I am higher risk, I'm probably not even going down the pub without one. So immediately, I'd say
My wife and I have come to terms with being locked down for a long time and to be honest, at our age and vulnerability, we will be very wary even when lockdown is lifted and continuing maintaining safe spacing
Most likely we will need to receive a vaccine before we can relax
They are like the hosts out of Westworld, stuck on their loop.
Answer - When it is safe and we dont know when that is yet so stop asking the same stupid question
Whitty just said no vaccine for at least a calendar year BTW
May have a vaccine with proof of concept in less than a year
Yes. Also worth pondering who would get that (e.g., front-line medics / carers / those at higher risk). With smaller volumes it could still make a big difference.
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
I think I would wait a year to see what the longer term effects are.
Given that I am higher risk, I'm probably not even going down the pub without one. So immediately, I'd say
I'm higher risk too, which is why I wouldn't chance a new vaccine, that has been rushed through tests until longer term effects are known. Probably won't go to the pub either.
My drinking in pubs days are numbered this year methinks
Although i am sat with a pint of Bacardi and Pepsi Max in my right hand as i post this with my left hand
I wish someone would ask about vaccine manufacturing capacity. The last thing we need is for the Oxford team to come up with a valid vaccine in 6 months and have nowhere in the country to make it in mass quantities. Relying on the international market has proved to be unreliable. We need to be in charge of this step at home, even if it means giving GSK and Astra a massive load of cash to build vaccine production.
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
I think I would wait a year to see what the longer term effects are.
Given that I am higher risk, I'm probably not even going down the pub without one. So immediately, I'd say
I'm higher risk too, which is why I wouldn't chance a new vaccine, that has been rushed through tests until longer term effects are known. Probably won't go to the pub either.
My drinking in pubs days are numbered this year methinks
Although i am sat with a pint of Bacardi and Pepsi Max in my right hand as i post this with my left hand
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
I think I would wait a year to see what the longer term effects are.
Given that I am higher risk, I'm probably not even going down the pub without one. So immediately, I'd say
I'm higher risk too, which is why I wouldn't chance a new vaccine, that has been rushed through tests until longer term effects are known. Probably won't go to the pub either.
My drinking in pubs days are numbered this year methinks
Although i am sat with a pint of Bacardi and Pepsi Max in my right hand as i post this with my left hand
Hic
Yeah, my bar manager son a bit despondent tonight
I was a bit despondent but the first pint of Bacardi and Coke seems to have lifted my spirits.
Got my first Zoom meeting tomorrow.
Might experiment with how much alcohol can be consumed in a virtual CLP meeting!!
I want to know about elective surgery. I’m due to re-attempt the surgery I was supposed to have at Christmas around August time. My surgeon assured me I will be prioritised as soon as things start returning to normal, whatever that means...
Care home deaths are inevitable according to the CMO because people are coming and going ! Ignoring the fact that if carers had PPE then it wouldn’t be inevitable.
Surely not just staff, but it's new admissions too, coming from other elderly wards in hospitals. Granted, they need to be tested, but there's false negatives.
Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
Was talking to some folk in a machine learning group yesterday - fairly intelligent bunch, well read, etc. Amazed to see resistance ....... Americans of course.
Sounds like they need some science and logic learning before they attempt the machine kind.
If that is the case what on earth is going to happen when the furlough scheme ends at the end of June? Mass unemployment, businesses closed for good, fall in tax revenue.....?
The Evening standard ran a piece yesterday saying Oxford to Twickerham was 160 mile round trip....a quick google map shows that was horseshit too. And there was a closer centre.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
It doesn't need to wash with "The Public", it needs to wash with 365 Tory MPs, more than half of whom need to vote against the government to trigger an election.
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win, you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund at Christmas.
But what if EYE win?
That's £660 and you're in the Middle East. I'm not coming over there.
Fair enough, hope someone matches you on Betfair than.
The one that got away. Ah well.
Let's think of a gentle and fair even money £20 bet to do instead. One that settles this year.
I'll revert with a proposal.
I'm happy to bet with you, if you're happy to bet with me? A more fun bet paid to the site is fine, if £660 is too much.
No it's fine. But it's my £20 to your £660. Wanted to make double sure you are OK with that sort of sum.
So if you win - which you will - I donate £20 on your behalf to PB Xmas 2021.
And if I win - which I just might - what happens then with the £660?
Whatever you want me to do with it! (Xmas 2020, nine months from now).
OK, great. I probably would pop over there.
So we are done!
My £20 vs your £660.
I win if there is a UK general election on or before 31 Dec 2021.
You win if there isn't.
Nearly there. Election before 31st Dec 2020 (nine months from now), not 2021.
The Evening standard ran a piece yesterday saying Oxford to Twickerham was 160 mile round trip....a quick google map shows that was horseshit too. And there was a closer centre.
The issue isn't the nearest centre it's that people are being told to go to specific ones rather than their nearest one.
If that is the case what on earth is going to happen when the furlough scheme ends at the end of June? Mass unemployment, businesses closed for good, fall in tax revenue.....?
If that is the case what on earth is going to happen when the furlough scheme ends at the end of June? Mass unemployment, businesses closed for good, fall in tax revenue.....?
That’s going to be the difficult bit. There’s eventually going to be a limit to how much government can keep the exceptional support flowing, and when it ends there’s going to be a lot of people moving onto the much-less-generous standard unemployment benefit and universal credit systems.
As was made clear at the press conference today by Dr Whitty, while the initial lockdown strategy was very much science-driven, the next phases become much more political in terms of the timing and decisions made.
At last a sensible and credible LoTO. I am looking forward to The Clown making a full recovery. I am also looking forward with glee to his lack of preparedness and "back of a fag packet" mentality being torn apart by one of the first leading politicians in some years to have held down a proper job. It is the first time in my life time that I am hoping for the collapse of a Conservative government
Every chance. The majority is big but the depth of talent and competence is not. I think they might fall over in a heap before too long.
If the depth of talent and competence on the other side was so great then your prediction has a slight chance of coming true. The return of Edward and the worst voice in politics Reeves isn't likely to concern the government.
But only the government team is playing the virus and the economic fallout.
True but as I can see long-term factors outside this government's control make this virus even worse for this country. Care homes are a long-term disaster and the general Health and education standards are not what most would desire, which can't help, we have 27% obesity, among older people much higher.
The economic fallout can't be avoided but we do have a chancellor who so far appears very sharp for a modern politician. I salute the job retention scheme from idea to delivery. If this shutdown doesn't go on too long it will act as a great bridge for most.
What is certain is that the parties will have very different proposals for dealing with the post-corona economy and public finances. This choice will (imo) have to be presented formally to the electorate. There will need to be an overt mandate for the sort of drastic measures which either side favours. So, a GE in 2021 or perhaps early 2022. I know everyone is sick of elections but there seems no way around it. Summer 2021 if I had to stick my neck out. If most people share your very high opinion of Sunak at that time, the Cons will no doubt win again. If not, Starmer and Labour probably get a go.
What on Earth makes you think there will be a GE before the legally mandated date of May 2024?
Betfair offering 17 on a 2021 election, or 50 on 2020 if you're feeling really brave.
I'll stick with the 1.56 on 2024, which pays more than your savings account will over the next four years.
Just about the only thing I can see bringing down the government in the next 18 months, is an extension to the EU exit date leaving the UK responsible for hundreds of billions in EU bailout costs.
That's some of my money wanting 42 there. I'll settle for 34 if you or anybody else is interested . If I get that I will consider it, win or lose, one of my very best value bets. The Dec 12th GE was fought for the right to govern the pre-corona UK. The country by this time next year will be a wholly different place. It will be unrecognizable. The measures required to raise and shape the "new" economy will benefit from a fresh and specific mandate. They will be almost impossible to implement otherwise. Of course the government may try to resist the pressure that they go to the polls and seek that mandate - "we won an election just over a year ago bla bla" - but I don't think such an attitude will wash with the public.
It doesn't need to wash with "The Public", it needs to wash with 365 Tory MPs, more than half of whom need to vote against the government to trigger an election.
I'll have up to twenty quid of your 34 on 2020 if you like? If I win, you can donate my winnings to the PB hosting fund at Christmas.
But what if EYE win?
That's £660 and you're in the Middle East. I'm not coming over there.
Fair enough, hope someone matches you on Betfair than.
The one that got away. Ah well.
Let's think of a gentle and fair even money £20 bet to do instead. One that settles this year.
I'll revert with a proposal.
I'm happy to bet with you, if you're happy to bet with me? A more fun bet paid to the site is fine, if £660 is too much.
No it's fine. But it's my £20 to your £660. Wanted to make double sure you are OK with that sort of sum.
So if you win - which you will - I donate £20 on your behalf to PB Xmas 2021.
And if I win - which I just might - what happens then with the £660?
Whatever you want me to do with it! (Xmas 2020, nine months from now).
OK, great. I probably would pop over there.
So we are done!
My £20 vs your £660.
I win if there is a UK general election on or before 31 Dec 2021.
You win if there isn't.
Nearly there. Election before 31st Dec 2020 (nine months from now), not 2021.
No!
The whole exchange has been about a 2021 election. Please check it back.
In fact if there is a 2020 one YOU win. I only win if it is in calendar year 2021.
So the "confirmation note" should be amended from "on or before 31 Dec 2021" to "in 2021".
Just got word through, my company are set to furlough around 50% of the office, apparently I'm in the list. Everyone on 80% of salary, company topping up where £2500 isn't enough.
Whoops. My old friend Vaughan Gething, making history as the first British politician to swear on an open mic during a virtual Parliament meeting (in Wales). https://youtu.be/0Z_PYM0v9fo
If that is the case what on earth is going to happen when the furlough scheme ends at the end of June? Mass unemployment, businesses closed for good, fall in tax revenue.....?
That’s going to be the difficult bit. There’s eventually going to be a limit to how much government can keep the exceptional support flowing, and when it ends there’s going to be a lot of people moving onto the much-less-generous standard unemployment benefit and universal credit systems.
As was made clear at the press conference today by Dr Whitty, while the initial lockdown strategy was very much science-driven, the next phases become much more political in terms of the timing and decisions made.
When do we think there will be cross-over from the media reporting issues around the virus to the media focussing on the economic consequences?
Just got word through, my company are set to furlough around 50% of the office, apparently I'm in the list. Everyone on 80% of salary, company topping up where £2500 isn't enough.
I don't know which they went to. I just know they had a ding dong with their line manager about if they were eligible, then there was a load of pissing about with paperwork, nobody seeming to know who they needed to talk to and then all they said is they were heading off to Bristol to get it done.
Comments
But why say, as I just heard Raab say, "in other democracies when people see the army on the street they are worried, but British people feel reassured" it's so silly and unnecessary and what has it got to do with a coronavirus briefing
"When will the lockdown end?"
Using information from https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige
(and the UK information from that useful cricketwyvern chap) (and using the same vertical scales as in the originally provided diagram at 8:1)
Then we'll be on:
"Have you exited lockdown too early?"
Surely the COM bods are telling them that this is very very unlikely to be avoidable unless many more of us had have than they think.
How is it going at Porton Down on finding out how many of us have had it.
So we are done!
My £20 vs your £660.
I win if there is a UK general election on or before 31 Dec 2021.
You win if there isn't.
But that part of the world has been excised from the memories of the Raabsters of this world I daresay.
I’ve also done it as bar graphs, which is better than spiky line graphs for discrete daily data. UK made translucent for ease of comparison.
Which doesn’t look quite as similar as Mr Phoenix44 would like it to read, I think.
Whitty just said no vaccine for at least a calendar year BTW
Most likely we will need to receive a vaccine before we can relax
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1253002842958413825?s=20
Although i am sat with a pint of Bacardi and Pepsi Max in my right hand as i post this with my left hand
Hic
Got my first Zoom meeting tomorrow.
Might experiment with how much alcohol can be consumed in a virtual CLP meeting!!
Non starter for non drivers.
Under 16 in Cumbria told she had to go to Stansed for a test.
Fortunately local media interest in this latter case got her a more local test.
https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2020-04-21/coronavirus-test-centre-at-bristol-airport-for-key-workers/
And there has been a mobile one at the football ground for two weeks.
https://www.bristol-sport.co.uk/news/covid-19-swab-testing-for-ubhw-trust-nhs-staff-at-ashton-gate/
Testers in Worcester dont have to drive 80 miles to get a bath!
Cant the Government get a retraction!
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1252937718620979200?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1252973122132852737?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1252979394886459393?s=20
As was made clear at the press conference today by Dr Whitty, while the initial lockdown strategy was very much science-driven, the next phases become much more political in terms of the timing and decisions made.
Has your friend been sent to that one?
Was it open?
https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2020-04-21/coronavirus-test-centre-at-bristol-airport-for-key-workers/
The whole exchange has been about a 2021 election. Please check it back.
In fact if there is a 2020 one YOU win. I only win if it is in calendar year 2021.
So the "confirmation note" should be amended from "on or before 31 Dec 2021" to "in 2021".
Life is about to get a lot more boring.
https://youtu.be/0Z_PYM0v9fo
Your slipping both the articles appear to contradict what you are saying
The Bristol Airport one isnt open yet
and the one at Ashton Gate is for staff of University Hospitals Bristol & Weston Trust NHS staff which does not cover Bath