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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Do you mean that the key mistake was the government not assessing the likelihood of China telling the truth? If so, I agree with you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    Not all the advice of the scientists was scientific (on the likelihood of a lockdown being observed, for example).
    And I am sure no scientist advised that it was acceptable to discharge infected patients into care homes.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    I really wish some of you lot would try to be a politician rather than just criticise all the time. I watched a BBC report from Moscow yesterday where ambulance drivers had to wait for 9 hours in a queue with a seriously ill patient in the back. Is that happening here? This is a once in a 100 year pandemic and somehow the Government was supposed to have covered every single base. What they have done throughout is follow the medical professionals advice. This is a disease that no one has seen before and it behaves in the oddest way. The most important thing that the Government has done is to ensure that the NHS was not overwhelmed and they have done that spectacularly well, in fact probably too well. It cracks me up that the slightest criticism of teachers on this site is met with howls of derision yet most of you think you would do a far better job than politicians.

    Ambulances queuing for hours? We had that even before Covid-19.
    https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/30/queue-23-ambulances-wait-get-overstretched-ae-11977218/

    Remember also Exercise Cygnus on pandemics, which revealed many of the shortcomings we now face but whose findings the government suppressed rather than acting on. This was pre-Boris btw. His hands are as a clean as if he had just sung Happy Birthday twice, so expect to hear more of this in the post-crisis inquiries.
    Exercise Cygnus warned the NHS could not cope with pandemic three years ago but 'terrifying' results were kept secret
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exclusive-ministers-warned-nhs-could-not-cope-pandemic-three/

    Government supporters offer whataboutery (look at Italy!) or the M&W defence: it is taking all the right measures but not necessarily in the right order, or with any sense of urgency. Conservatives were calling for action in February. As noted at the start of this thread, the government announced today its PPE tsar, called for weeks ago on this very pb. HMG is setting up a website which will be ready "within weeks". It is the lack of urgency that is so depressing and that may well be because, having centralised power at Number 10, Boris and Cummings then disappeared from the scene leaving a vacuum.
    This kind of shite criticsm isnt worth the key depressions
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Will the PM host an emergency CAMRA meeting?

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-the-pandemic-could-cause-a-shortage-of-beer-and-fizzy-drinks-11975329

    Coronavirus: Fears of beer shortage as carbon dioxide supplies fizzle out

    Alcohol alchemy: Unsold beer reborn as craft gin
    Japanese brewery spirits away pandemic-hit pubs' liquid waste problem
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Food-Beverage/Alcohol-alchemy-Unsold-beer-reborn-as-craft-gin2

    Another example of Asian best practice ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Bad advice leaves the government in as damned if you do/damned if you don't situation though. If the government had ignored the advice from SAGE would there not be articles now about how we had overreacted and caused unnecessary damage to the economy against the advice of experts?
    That’s not what I said. Advice needs to be understood before acted upon. The advice is not purely scientific and lay upon political assumptions that were the responsibility of politicians. It appears that politicians let scientists take political decisions in ignorance. If the political assumptions had been changed, so might the advice.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    Not all the advice of the scientists was scientific (on the likelihood of a lockdown being observed, for example).
    And I am sure no scientist advised that it was acceptable to discharge infected patients into care homes.
    Nope, and in the years to come questions about specific decisions like that will be asked.

    Personally I’m more concerned with the really big mistake made in February: why didn’t we shut the borders?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    I really wish some of you lot would try to be a politician rather than just criticise all the time. I watched a BBC report from Moscow yesterday where ambulance drivers had to wait for 9 hours in a queue with a seriously ill patient in the back. Is that happening here? This is a once in a 100 year pandemic and somehow the Government was supposed to have covered every single base. What they have done throughout is follow the medical professionals advice. This is a disease that no one has seen before and it behaves in the oddest way. The most important thing that the Government has done is to ensure that the NHS was not overwhelmed and they have done that spectacularly well, in fact probably too well. It cracks me up that the slightest criticism of teachers on this site is met with howls of derision yet most of you think you would do a far better job than politicians.

    Ambulances queuing for hours? We had that even before Covid-19.
    https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/30/queue-23-ambulances-wait-get-overstretched-ae-11977218/

    Remember also Exercise Cygnus on pandemics, which revealed many of the shortcomings we now face but whose findings the government suppressed rather than acting on. This was pre-Boris btw. His hands are as a clean as if he had just sung Happy Birthday twice, so expect to hear more of this in the post-crisis inquiries.
    Exercise Cygnus warned the NHS could not cope with pandemic three years ago but 'terrifying' results were kept secret
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exclusive-ministers-warned-nhs-could-not-cope-pandemic-three/

    Government supporters offer whataboutery (look at Italy!) or the M&W defence: it is taking all the right measures but not necessarily in the right order, or with any sense of urgency. Conservatives were calling for action in February. As noted at the start of this thread, the government announced today its PPE tsar, called for weeks ago on this very pb. HMG is setting up a website which will be ready "within weeks". It is the lack of urgency that is so depressing and that may well be because, having centralised power at Number 10, Boris and Cummings then disappeared from the scene leaving a vacuum.
    This kind of shite criticsm isnt worth the key depressions
    And that kind of sh...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Or perhaps they thought that some things were not a price worth paying to restrict infection.

    Its the only reason I can see for their casual attitude to restrictions on foreign travel.
    I think that the SARS outbreak caused a lot of complacency. In the UK there were 8k cases and 774 deaths without any drastic countermeasures. I suspect it took time to realise that this was different and much, much more serious.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Of course, I bet there were civil servants telling ministers that the information coming out of China was accurate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Bad advice leaves the government in as damned if you do/damned if you don't situation though. If the government had ignored the advice from SAGE would there not be articles now about how we had overreacted and caused unnecessary damage to the economy against the advice of experts?
    That’s not what I said. Advice needs to be understood before acted upon. The advice is not purely scientific and lay upon political assumptions that were the responsibility of politicians. It appears that politicians let scientists take political decisions in ignorance. If the political assumptions had been changed, so might the advice.
    One might add that a number of countries have responded differently and more effectively; presumably also on the basis of scientific advice.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FF43 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    I'm pretty sure Theresa May would have turned up to the COBR meetings. Particularly if told the UK was facing an imminent pandemic that could claim 500 000 lives.
    Who said the UK was facing that and on which date? That doesn't appear in any article I've seen.
  • PPE from Turkey today delayed

    HMG will need to have answers

    Not good

    The ultimate answer is that we need to become less dependent upon imports for vital supplies.

    Whether the government has realised this yet is something I'm not sure of.
    To be honest it is the massive volume of production and of course the main supplier of the components is China, so you can gear up manufacture but if you cannot source the materials you end up in a cul de sac
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.


    Flight brings vital equipment from China to Scotland.

    A charter flight carrying essential personal protective equipment (PPE) and NHS supplies has landed in Scotland.

    The cargo which included around 10 million face masks as well as infusion pumps for Intensive Care Units and virus collecting kits for use in health laboratories, landed at Glasgow Prestwick Airport from China on Saturday morning.

    Minister for Trade, Investment and Innovation Ivan McKee said:

    “Scotland’s health and social care system is facing unprecedented demand.

    “Protecting staff working on the frontline is an absolute priority which is why we have been working at pace with the NHS and manufacturers both in Scotland and internationally to improve and increase the supply of PPE.

    “This charter flight, carrying additional equipment ordered by the Scottish Government, is significant and we will be focusing the distribution of these supplies to health and social care settings over the coming days.

    “In these incredibly challenging times the Scottish Government will continue to do all it can to make health and social care staff feel as safe as possible in their workplace.”

    Jim Miller, Director of Procurement, Commissioning and Facilities at NHS National Services Scotland (NSS), said:

    “This delivery is the result of a painstaking collective effort involving multiple partners working together to provide our NHS and social care colleagues with the PPE they need to keep them safe.

    “Together with supply partners and Scottish Government, NSS continues to work 24/7 to source and supply the PPE that Scotland needs to fight COVID-19.”
    https://www.facebook.com/scott.mcilwrick/videos/10158412866754740/

    I genuinely hope it works. Their record to date has not been good.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Or perhaps they thought that some things were not a price worth paying to restrict infection.

    Its the only reason I can see for their casual attitude to restrictions on foreign travel.
    Their only thought was their pockets, hence they liked the herd option and shedloads dying. They only changed when it was obvious the pitchforks were coming out and they then just spun a a web of lies whilst doing just what they had to. As we saw , Boris had preferential treatment , none of these chancers need worry. Whilst plebs will be told to take a few paracetamol till they are near death.
    They knew fine what they were doing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Or perhaps they thought that some things were not a price worth paying to restrict infection.

    Its the only reason I can see for their casual attitude to restrictions on foreign travel.
    I think that the SARS outbreak caused a lot of complacency. In the UK there were 8k cases and 774 deaths without any drastic countermeasures. I suspect it took time to realise that this was different and much, much more serious.
    We were discussing very early on how this was different from SARS, and why
    at the likely consequences might be.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    edited April 2020
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    Not all the advice of the scientists was scientific (on the likelihood of a lockdown being observed, for example).
    And I am sure no scientist advised that it was acceptable to discharge infected patients into care homes.
    Nope, and I’m the years to come questions about specific decisions like that will be asked.

    Personally I’m more concerned with the really big mistake made in February: why didn’t we shut the borders?
    The borders that are open even now, without testing or self-isolation, except where they've been closed at the far end? If that was a mistake in February, it remains so.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    I really wish some of you lot would try to be a politician rather than just criticise all the time. I watched a BBC report from Moscow yesterday where ambulance drivers had to wait for 9 hours in a queue with a seriously ill patient in the back. Is that happening here? This is a once in a 100 year pandemic and somehow the Government was supposed to have covered every single base. What they have done throughout is follow the medical professionals advice. This is a disease that no one has seen before and it behaves in the oddest way. The most important thing that the Government has done is to ensure that the NHS was not overwhelmed and they have done that spectacularly well, in fact probably too well. It cracks me up that the slightest criticism of teachers on this site is met with howls of derision yet most of you think you would do a far better job than politicians.

    Ambulances queuing for hours? We had that even before Covid-19.
    https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/30/queue-23-ambulances-wait-get-overstretched-ae-11977218/

    Remember also Exercise Cygnus on pandemics, which revealed many of the shortcomings we now face but whose findings the government suppressed rather than acting on. This was pre-Boris btw. His hands are as a clean as if he had just sung Happy Birthday twice, so expect to hear more of this in the post-crisis inquiries.
    Exercise Cygnus warned the NHS could not cope with pandemic three years ago but 'terrifying' results were kept secret
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exclusive-ministers-warned-nhs-could-not-cope-pandemic-three/

    Government supporters offer whataboutery (look at Italy!) or the M&W defence: it is taking all the right measures but not necessarily in the right order, or with any sense of urgency. Conservatives were calling for action in February. As noted at the start of this thread, the government announced today its PPE tsar, called for weeks ago on this very pb. HMG is setting up a website which will be ready "within weeks". It is the lack of urgency that is so depressing and that may well be because, having centralised power at Number 10, Boris and Cummings then disappeared from the scene leaving a vacuum.
    This kind of shite criticsm isnt worth the key depressions
    Tory Boris lover dives to his defence
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Jonathan said:

    I really wish some of you lot would try to be a politician rather than just criticise all the time. I watched a BBC report from Moscow yesterday where ambulance drivers had to wait for 9 hours in a queue with a seriously ill patient in the back. Is that happening here? This is a once in a 100 year pandemic and somehow the Government was supposed to have covered every single base. What they have done throughout is follow the medical professionals advice. This is a disease that no one has seen before and it behaves in the oddest way. The most important thing that the Government has done is to ensure that the NHS was not overwhelmed and they have done that spectacularly well, in fact probably too well. It cracks me up that the slightest criticism of teachers on this site is met with howls of derision yet most of you think you would do a far better job than politicians.

    Bless. Let’s have an 8pm clap for the politicians, the true victims of this crisis.

    It might answer the question of what sound does one hand clapping make.

    I don't think I could give Boris Johnson the clap.

    I'm the wrong gender.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.


    Flight brings vital equipment from China to Scotland.

    A charter flight carrying essential personal protective equipment (PPE) and NHS supplies has landed in Scotland.

    The cargo which included around 10 million face masks as well as infusion pumps for Intensive Care Units and virus collecting kits for use in health laboratories, landed at Glasgow Prestwick Airport from China on Saturday morning.

    Minister for Trade, Investment and Innovation Ivan McKee said:

    “Scotland’s health and social care system is facing unprecedented demand.

    “Protecting staff working on the frontline is an absolute priority which is why we have been working at pace with the NHS and manufacturers both in Scotland and internationally to improve and increase the supply of PPE.

    “This charter flight, carrying additional equipment ordered by the Scottish Government, is significant and we will be focusing the distribution of these supplies to health and social care settings over the coming days.

    “In these incredibly challenging times the Scottish Government will continue to do all it can to make health and social care staff feel as safe as possible in their workplace.”

    Jim Miller, Director of Procurement, Commissioning and Facilities at NHS National Services Scotland (NSS), said:

    “This delivery is the result of a painstaking collective effort involving multiple partners working together to provide our NHS and social care colleagues with the PPE they need to keep them safe.

    “Together with supply partners and Scottish Government, NSS continues to work 24/7 to source and supply the PPE that Scotland needs to fight COVID-19.”
    https://www.facebook.com/scott.mcilwrick/videos/10158412866754740/

    I genuinely hope it works. Their record to date has not been good.
    Better than all the rest though David, even if not by much and that only because Sturgeon is scared to have her own policy and give the unionists a stick to beat her with. At some point they need to grow a pair.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Bad advice leaves the government in as damned if you do/damned if you don't situation though. If the government had ignored the advice from SAGE would there not be articles now about how we had overreacted and caused unnecessary damage to the economy against the advice of experts?
    That’s not what I said. Advice needs to be understood before acted upon. The advice is not purely scientific and lay upon political assumptions that were the responsibility of politicians. It appears that politicians let scientists take political decisions in ignorance. If the political assumptions had been changed, so might the advice.
    I'm agreeing with you, my problem is with the setup. We have a group of unaccountable scientists making political decisions. The government have failed to give SAGE any kind of serious oversight and I think both Boris and Hancock are at fault here. Personally, I think Hancock needs to fall for a lot of this, he's clearly not up to the job and has been far too reliant on the experts for making the decisions for him. If Boris hadn't just won an 80 seat majority I think he'd be in serious trouble too. Politically Boris is safe I think, but it's proven what we all already knew about him. He's let other people take charge of a situation, partially because he's lazy and partly to pass the buck, but he's he PM and isn't able to do that and it's shown him to be unsuitable for job.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2020

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    I guess being PM is more important, but he did have a newly pregnant fiancée at the time I think.

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1251630747078836224
    Let's hope we're not in the middle of another crisis when he inevitably chucks Carrie.
    Ffs
    Maybe putting the fired for lying philanderer in charge was a bad idea.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited April 2020

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Bad advice leaves the government in as damned if you do/damned if you don't situation though. If the government had ignored the advice from SAGE would there not be articles now about how we had overreacted and caused unnecessary damage to the economy against the advice of experts?
    That’s not what I said. Advice needs to be understood before acted upon. The advice is not purely scientific and lay upon political assumptions that were the responsibility of politicians. It appears that politicians let scientists take political decisions in ignorance. If the political assumptions had been changed, so might the advice.
    It is quite a lightweight government, is my sense. Not surprising when you consider its genesis - subservience to Johnson and a willingness to sign up to No Deal Brexit being the key attributes for membership.

    You can get away with this in normal times. Not so much now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Or perhaps they thought that some things were not a price worth paying to restrict infection.

    Its the only reason I can see for their casual attitude to restrictions on foreign travel.
    I think that the SARS outbreak caused a lot of complacency. In the UK there were 8k cases and 774 deaths without any drastic countermeasures. I suspect it took time to realise that this was different and much, much more serious.
    8k cases in the UK? I don't think you've got that right. There were 8k cases worldwide and only 4 in the UK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    @malcolmg

    Your earlier post on Michael Gove was bang out of order.

    Please apologise at once to all slimeballs and rats.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    Latest data



  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.


    Flight brings vital equipment from China to Scotland.

    A charter flight carrying essential personal protective equipment (PPE) and NHS supplies has landed in Scotland.

    The cargo which included around 10 million face masks as well as infusion pumps for Intensive Care Units and virus collecting kits for use in health laboratories, landed at Glasgow Prestwick Airport from China on Saturday morning.

    Minister for Trade, Investment and Innovation Ivan McKee said:

    “Scotland’s health and social care system is facing unprecedented demand.

    “Protecting staff working on the frontline is an absolute priority which is why we have been working at pace with the NHS and manufacturers both in Scotland and internationally to improve and increase the supply of PPE.

    “This charter flight, carrying additional equipment ordered by the Scottish Government, is significant and we will be focusing the distribution of these supplies to health and social care settings over the coming days.

    “In these incredibly challenging times the Scottish Government will continue to do all it can to make health and social care staff feel as safe as possible in their workplace.”

    Jim Miller, Director of Procurement, Commissioning and Facilities at NHS National Services Scotland (NSS), said:

    “This delivery is the result of a painstaking collective effort involving multiple partners working together to provide our NHS and social care colleagues with the PPE they need to keep them safe.

    “Together with supply partners and Scottish Government, NSS continues to work 24/7 to source and supply the PPE that Scotland needs to fight COVID-19.”
    https://www.facebook.com/scott.mcilwrick/videos/10158412866754740/

    I genuinely hope it works. Their record to date has not been good.
    Better than all the rest though David, even if not by much and that only because Sturgeon is scared to have her own policy and give the unionists a stick to beat her with. At some point they need to grow a pair.
    Interestingly, some sign of that happening (so to speak!) in the Graun reports this morning.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    ydoethur said:

    @malcolmg

    Your earlier post on Michael Gove was bang out of order.

    Please apologise at once to all slimeballs and rats.

    I apologise to them wholeheartedly, he is way worse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    FF43 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    I'm pretty sure Theresa May would have turned up to the COBR meetings. Particularly if told the UK was facing an imminent pandemic that could claim 500 000 lives.
    When the model output changed to the 500k figure Boris was in the room. The issue is that he wasn't in the room before that because our experts completely underestimated the severity of this for far, far too long and our politicians are either too stupid or too incompetent to give them any real oversight.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    FF43 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    I'm pretty sure Theresa May would have turned up to the COBR meetings. Particularly if told the UK was facing an imminent pandemic that could claim 500 000 lives.
    Who said the UK was facing that and on which date? That doesn't appear in any article I've seen.
    This is where Johnson's reputation catches up with him.

    Had it come to light that Theresa May missed 5 Cobra meetings the general reaction would have been that there was probably a good reason for it. Johnson misses 5 and the general reaction is "lazy bastard".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.


    Flight brings vital equipment from China to Scotland.

    A charter flight carrying essential personal protective equipment (PPE) and NHS supplies has landed in Scotland.

    The cargo which included around 10 million face masks as well as infusion pumps for Intensive Care Units and virus collecting kits for use in health laboratories, landed at Glasgow Prestwick Airport from China on Saturday morning.

    Minister for Trade, Investment and Innovation Ivan McKee said:

    “Scotland’s health and social care system is facing unprecedented demand.

    “Protecting staff working on the frontline is an absolute priority which is why we have been working at pace with the NHS and manufacturers both in Scotland and internationally to improve and increase the supply of PPE.

    “This charter flight, carrying additional equipment ordered by the Scottish Government, is significant and we will be focusing the distribution of these supplies to health and social care settings over the coming days.

    “In these incredibly challenging times the Scottish Government will continue to do all it can to make health and social care staff feel as safe as possible in their workplace.”

    Jim Miller, Director of Procurement, Commissioning and Facilities at NHS National Services Scotland (NSS), said:

    “This delivery is the result of a painstaking collective effort involving multiple partners working together to provide our NHS and social care colleagues with the PPE they need to keep them safe.

    “Together with supply partners and Scottish Government, NSS continues to work 24/7 to source and supply the PPE that Scotland needs to fight COVID-19.”
    https://www.facebook.com/scott.mcilwrick/videos/10158412866754740/

    I genuinely hope it works. Their record to date has not been good.
    Better than all the rest though David, even if not by much and that only because Sturgeon is scared to have her own policy and give the unionists a stick to beat her with. At some point they need to grow a pair.
    Interestingly, some sign of that happening (so to speak!) in the Graun reports this morning.
    About time she bit the bullet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Daily confirmed deaths are showing definite weekend drops ternds and for some countries and big drop for easter ( especially Germany, Sweden, France and Ireland) . Clearly an administrative effect.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    FF43 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    I'm pretty sure Theresa May would have turned up to the COBR meetings. Particularly if told the UK was facing an imminent pandemic that could claim 500 000 lives.
    To be honest if that was the case , I can not think of another PM in my lifetime who would not have turned up to those specific COBRA meetings.
    If true it is pretty damning.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    I'm pretty sure Theresa May would have turned up to the COBR meetings. Particularly if told the UK was facing an imminent pandemic that could claim 500 000 lives.
    When the model output changed to the 500k figure Boris was in the room. The issue is that he wasn't in the room before that because our experts completely underestimated the severity of this for far, far too long and our politicians are either too stupid or too incompetent to give them any real oversight.
    they are both , too stupid and too incompetent. I would not trust them to run a bath.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    edited April 2020

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Or perhaps they thought that some things were not a price worth paying to restrict infection.

    Its the only reason I can see for their casual attitude to restrictions on foreign travel.
    I think that the SARS outbreak caused a lot of complacency. In the UK there were 8k cases and 774 deaths without any drastic countermeasures. I suspect it took time to realise that this was different and much, much more serious.
    8k cases in the UK? I don't think you've got that right. There were 8k cases worldwide and only 4 in the UK.


    First rule of applied statistics: know what population you are talking about.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Or perhaps they thought that some things were not a price worth paying to restrict infection.

    Its the only reason I can see for their casual attitude to restrictions on foreign travel.
    I think that the SARS outbreak caused a lot of complacency. In the UK there were 8k cases and 774 deaths without any drastic countermeasures. I suspect it took time to realise that this was different and much, much more serious.
    We were discussing very early on how this was different from SARS, and why
    at the likely consequences might be.
    The China figures did not indicate that particularly. Indeed, if you believe them, they still don't. 4.5k deaths out of 1.3bn would indicate something like a couple of hundred deaths in the UK. Not something to ignore but not something to tear the country apart on.

    Although I was concerned it was the NASA image of Nitrogen Oxide from northern China that convinced me that the Chinese were lying and that this was far more serious. China had not done that because a few hundred people had died.
    Looking at that again I see it is dated 25th February https://www.naturalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/91/2020/03/satellite-image-nitrogen-dioxide-china.jpg

    By that time it was also evident that the outbreak in Italy was of a completely different order from anything we had seen for 100 years. So there is a delay but it is not huge. Whether using that time effectively would have bought us more time is uncertain but as I said phase 1 collapsed within days because it was already too late.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    "The state pension would rise in line with either wage growth or inflation, which are both expected to be lower as a result of coronavirus."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/pensioners-could-foot-bill-coronavirus-support-triple-lock-guarantee/

    Not sure that is going to age well at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Scott_xP said:
    So far then Starmer has just taken Labour back to its voteshare at the last general election
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Daily confirmed deaths are showing definite weekend drops ternds and for some countries and big drop for easter ( especially Germany, Sweden, France and Ireland) . Clearly an administrative effect.
    Which reminds me. Happy Easter to any Orthodox pb readers, for whom today is Easter Day. Perhaps those countries will show an administrative dip this weekend.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    I'm pretty sure Theresa May would have turned up to the COBR meetings. Particularly if told the UK was facing an imminent pandemic that could claim 500 000 lives.
    To be honest if that was the case , I can not think of another PM in my lifetime who would not have turned up to those specific COBRA meetings.
    If true it is pretty damning.
    It's not true. The 500k figure was from the updated model by then Boris was in the meetings.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Daily confirmed deaths are showing definite weekend drops ternds and for some countries and big drop for easter ( especially Germany, Sweden, France and Ireland) . Clearly an administrative effect.
    Quick, get the Covid Data Wranglers in. They can declare that its all over.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.


    Flight brings vital equipment from China to Scotland.

    A charter flight carrying essential personal protective equipment (PPE) and NHS supplies has landed in Scotland.

    The cargo which included around 10 million face masks as well as infusion pumps for Intensive Care Units and virus collecting kits for use in health laboratories, landed at Glasgow Prestwick Airport from China on Saturday morning.

    Minister for Trade, Investment and Innovation Ivan McKee said:

    “Scotland’s health and social care system is facing unprecedented demand.

    “Protecting staff working on the frontline is an absolute priority which is why we have been working at pace with the NHS and manufacturers both in Scotland and internationally to improve and increase the supply of PPE.

    “This charter flight, carrying additional equipment ordered by the Scottish Government, is significant and we will be focusing the distribution of these supplies to health and social care settings over the coming days.

    “In these incredibly challenging times the Scottish Government will continue to do all it can to make health and social care staff feel as safe as possible in their workplace.”

    Jim Miller, Director of Procurement, Commissioning and Facilities at NHS National Services Scotland (NSS), said:

    “This delivery is the result of a painstaking collective effort involving multiple partners working together to provide our NHS and social care colleagues with the PPE they need to keep them safe.

    “Together with supply partners and Scottish Government, NSS continues to work 24/7 to source and supply the PPE that Scotland needs to fight COVID-19.”
    https://www.facebook.com/scott.mcilwrick/videos/10158412866754740/

    I genuinely hope it works. Their record to date has not been good.
    Better than all the rest though David, even if not by much and that only because Sturgeon is scared to have her own policy and give the unionists a stick to beat her with. At some point they need to grow a pair.
    Interestingly, some sign of that happening (so to speak!) in the Graun reports this morning.
    About time she bit the bullet.
    The SNP administration is of course a minority government. It will be critical what the other parties do. SLAB got a near-terminal dose from being in bed with the Tories over indyref. And the Greens get a lot of their votes from the young, I believe.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    I really wish some of you lot would try to be a politician rather than just criticise all the time. I watched a BBC report from Moscow yesterday where ambulance drivers had to wait for 9 hours in a queue with a seriously ill patient in the back. Is that happening here? This is a once in a 100 year pandemic and somehow the Government was supposed to have covered every single base. What they have done throughout is follow the medical professionals advice. This is a disease that no one has seen before and it behaves in the oddest way. The most important thing that the Government has done is to ensure that the NHS was not overwhelmed and they have done that spectacularly well, in fact probably too well. It cracks me up that the slightest criticism of teachers on this site is met with howls of derision yet most of you think you would do a far better job than politicians.

    Bless. Let’s have an 8pm clap for the politicians, the true victims of this crisis.

    It might answer the question of what sound does one hand clapping make.

    I don't think I could give Boris Johnson the clap.

    I'm the wrong gender.
    I hope you're not responsible for Sex Ed in your school.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,608
    edited April 2020
    Is it really 25 years since the Oklahoma bombing? I might have guessed 15, tops.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708

    Is it really 25 years since the Oklahoma bombing? I might have guessed 15, tops.

    It's almost 19 years since 9/11.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    FF43 said:

    We're seeing a lot of this, not least on this site.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1251593226915590148

    Equally, there are also plenty of people - especially in media circles - who see the government as the other football team across town, who always do things wrong and can't possibly do anything good, because they are unredeemably bad people.

    I really don't understand what a lot of the Sundays are up to today, they seem determined to undermine what has been good public support for the lockdown, which will prolong the crisis and lead to more unnecessary deaths and economic damage. But hey, it sells newspapers so why not?

    There will be time to analyse decisions made later, when the inevitable enquiry happens, I just don't think the middle of a pandemic is the right time to be doing it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
    Currently India has a death rate of just 0.4 per million compared to a global average of 20.7.

    Clearly the fact it has few over 80s who are most at risk of death from coronavirus does seem to be reducing the impact there


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Or perhaps they thought that some things were not a price worth paying to restrict infection.

    Its the only reason I can see for their casual attitude to restrictions on foreign travel.
    I think that the SARS outbreak caused a lot of complacency. In the UK there were 8k cases and 774 deaths without any drastic countermeasures. I suspect it took time to realise that this was different and much, much more serious.
    8k cases in the UK? I don't think you've got that right. There were 8k cases worldwide and only 4 in the UK.
    You're right. I picked that up from the NHS website but its referring to the worldwide figure, not the UK one.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Feels like a more heat than light day on PB.

    Meanwhile wrestling with what to do about father in home with CV19. The home is not communicating at all well, which suggests they are struggling. Phone calls mostly not answered, when you do get through you get carefully worded replies and emails not replied to.

    Contemplating busting Dad out, although not sure is that is wise, legal or because of prescriptions etc technically possible.

    So play nice on PB, this thing isn’t over.

    I don’t know what to advise, especially without knowing your father’s particular circumstances, but you have my absolute sympathy.

    +1 - that sounds a really tough dilemma. Perhaps discuss urgently with his GP, who would coverr the prescriptions aspect if (s)he agrees with taking him out of there?
    My son in laws father (87) is being kept in his home by the authorities despite being in terrible health, falling nearly daily, on a permanent catheter, and confused. He has 4 carers a day and when he falls my son in law or his sister have to attend in ppe before an ambulance is called

    On each occasions recently the paramedics stabilise him and then leave him with his carers. He should be in a nursing home or hospital but neither will take him.

    The really sad issue is his wife is in dementia care in a nearby nursing home but they with not take him to be with her

    This catastrophe is changing so many lives and seems neverending




    It's so grim, BGNW. Sympathies with all your family. I'm glad my father died end of last year so he didn't have to see this.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Bad advice leaves the government in as damned if you do/damned if you don't situation though. If the government had ignored the advice from SAGE would there not be articles now about how we had overreacted and caused unnecessary damage to the economy against the advice of experts?
    That’s not what I said. Advice needs to be understood before acted upon. The advice is not purely scientific and lay upon political assumptions that were the responsibility of politicians. It appears that politicians let scientists take political decisions in ignorance. If the political assumptions had been changed, so might the advice.
    It is quite a lightweight government, is my sense. Not surprising when you consider its genesis - subservience to Johnson and a willingness to sign up to No Deal Brexit being the key attributes for membership.

    You can get away with this in normal times. Not so much now.
    I think the fact that the Cabinet had to consist of Brexiteers that would go through with a no deal exit is crucial. It was a very small gene pool. People like Patel and Raab would never be holding the positions they do otherwise. It is an inexperienced and lightweight Cabinet all led by a man you really can't be arsed about the details and lets them get on with it. Let's wait to see how it all turns out, hopefully not too badly for all our sakes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    Is it really 25 years since the Oklahoma bombing? I might have guessed 15, tops.

    It's almost 19 years since 9/11.
    Yeah, that's the scary one. I can remember it like it was yesterday.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
    Currently India has a death rate of just 0.4 per million compared to a global average of 20.7.

    Clearly the fact it has few over 80s who are most at risk of death from coronavirus does seem to be reducing the impact there


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    The figure from India isn't credible.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    Is it really 25 years since the Oklahoma bombing? I might have guessed 15, tops.

    Bill Clinton was president so it could well be. Certainly more than 15 because America's had two 8-year presidents since he left.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May be Gove is stating the truth rather than “taking a line”?
    First time for everything..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251730693815705600?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732031815462913?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732692011552769?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733412320366594?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733827103395841?s=20

    While he's right that it appears to be more (to an extent in hindsight) "Poor advice" rather than "ignored advice" Ministers still get to carry the can. What questions didn't they ask? Who did they get to play "devil's advocate" and so on.

    Meanwhile, I assume those calling for Hancock's head will also be calling for the heads of his peers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where responsibility also lies?

    I know you are a paid acolyte of the Tory government but maybe give it a rest now and again.
    Deluded does not quite cover it....

    Sick Kids Hospital finished yet?

    Or is that England's Westminster's fault too?

    Lucky you've got Forty a day Freeman on the case, eh?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    edited April 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
    Currently India has a death rate of just 0.4 per million compared to a global average of 20.7.

    Clearly the fact it has few over 80s who are most at risk of death from coronavirus does seem to be reducing the impact there

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    I think the key there is 'currently'. If you believe the figures, which many don't.

    Looking at the graphs above, we'll all be talking about Russia, India and Africa a month from now. Possibly Brazil too. These countries all have very dense population centres and relatively poor healthcare.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Feels like a more heat than light day on PB.

    Meanwhile wrestling with what to do about father in home with CV19. The home is not communicating at all well, which suggests they are struggling. Phone calls mostly not answered, when you do get through you get carefully worded replies and emails not replied to.

    Contemplating busting Dad out, although not sure is that is wise, legal or because of prescriptions etc technically possible.

    So play nice on PB, this thing isn’t over.

    I don’t know what to advise, especially without knowing your father’s particular circumstances, but you have my absolute sympathy.

    +1 - that sounds a really tough dilemma. Perhaps discuss urgently with his GP, who would coverr the prescriptions aspect if (s)he agrees with taking him out of there?
    My son in laws father (87) is being kept in his home by the authorities despite being in terrible health, falling nearly daily, on a permanent catheter, and confused. He has 4 carers a day and when he falls my son in law or his sister have to attend in ppe before an ambulance is called

    On each occasions recently the paramedics stabilise him and then leave him with his carers. He should be in a nursing home or hospital but neither will take him.

    The really sad issue is his wife is in dementia care in a nearby nursing home but they with not take him to be with her

    This catastrophe is changing so many lives and seems neverending

    This is a sad story, like so many at the moment. I feel for all of you involved.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
    Currently India has a death rate of just 0.4 per million compared to a global average of 20.7.

    Clearly the fact it has few over 80s who are most at risk of death from coronavirus does seem to be reducing the impact there


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    The figure from India isn't credible.
    India's a big place. Is the virus evenly spread? China's numbers are probably low if you look at the whole country and not just Wuhan. Though in India's case there is also diversity between rich and poor, who might not have access to healthcare in order to be diagnosed in the first place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    The Finnish expert, Mikko Paunio, has updated his paper 'Has SARS-CoV-2 Fooled the Whole World?' with new figures in an addendum.

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/mikko-paunio-paper/

    Now includes a Boston homeless shelter where 37% tested had antibodies and yet no symptoms.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Blimey I just watched the unherd interview with the Swedish prof, and he’s saying almost exactly everything I thought. So, obviously I think it’s great

    https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
    Currently India has a death rate of just 0.4 per million compared to a global average of 20.7.

    Clearly the fact it has few over 80s who are most at risk of death from coronavirus does seem to be reducing the impact there


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    The figure from India isn't credible.
    India's a big place. Is the virus evenly spread? China's numbers are probably low if you look at the whole country and not just Wuhan. Though in India's case there is also diversity between rich and poor, who might not have access to healthcare in order to be diagnosed in the first place.
    The last point is the key one. There may be scores of people dying that just don't get counted.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited April 2020
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Feels like a more heat than light day on PB.

    Meanwhile wrestling with what to do about father in home with CV19. The home is not communicating at all well, which suggests they are struggling. Phone calls mostly not answered, when you do get through you get carefully worded replies and emails not replied to.

    Contemplating busting Dad out, although not sure is that is wise, legal or because of prescriptions etc technically possible.

    So play nice on PB, this thing isn’t over.

    I don’t know what to advise, especially without knowing your father’s particular circumstances, but you have my absolute sympathy.

    +1 - that sounds a really tough dilemma. Perhaps discuss urgently with his GP, who would coverr the prescriptions aspect if (s)he agrees with taking him out of there?
    My son in laws father (87) is being kept in his home by the authorities despite being in terrible health, falling nearly daily, on a permanent catheter, and confused. He has 4 carers a day and when he falls my son in law or his sister have to attend in ppe before an ambulance is called

    On each occasions recently the paramedics stabilise him and then leave him with his carers. He should be in a nursing home or hospital but neither will take him.

    The really sad issue is his wife is in dementia care in a nearby nursing home but they with not take him to be with her

    This catastrophe is changing so many lives and seems neverending




    It's so grim, BGNW. Sympathies with all your family. I'm glad my father died end of last year so he didn't have to see this.
    Thank you. It is heartbreaking for so many and my wife and I feel so much for our son in law, his sister, and mother and father who are in a nightmare because the additional problem is they cannot visit their mother in dementia care. It was her 85th birthday yesterday and all they could get was a photograph of her with two nurses and some flowers

    It is hitting so many families and so much suffering I do feel we all need to be kinder to each other

    Politics will continue with entrenched positions and robust argument is part of the to and fro. However, sometimes the personal attacks go just too far
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    isam said:

    Blimey I just watched the unherd interview with the Swedish prof, and he’s saying almost exactly everything I thought. So, obviously I think it’s great

    https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

    He's certainly saying things I really hope are true.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.

    Malc - it's their fecking job

    Beats whining about not being able to buy stuff PHE have already bought for distribution in England. Lets hope its up to standard.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Bad advice leaves the government in as damned if you do/damned if you don't situation though. If the government had ignored the advice from SAGE would there not be articles now about how we had overreacted and caused unnecessary damage to the economy against the advice of experts?
    That’s not what I said. Advice needs to be understood before acted upon. The advice is not purely scientific and lay upon political assumptions that were the responsibility of politicians. It appears that politicians let scientists take political decisions in ignorance. If the political assumptions had been changed, so might the advice.
    I'm agreeing with you, my problem is with the setup. We have a group of unaccountable scientists making political decisions. The government have failed to give SAGE any kind of serious oversight and I think both Boris and Hancock are at fault here. Personally, I think Hancock needs to fall for a lot of this, he's clearly not up to the job and has been far too reliant on the experts for making the decisions for him. If Boris hadn't just won an 80 seat majority I think he'd be in serious trouble too. Politically Boris is safe I think, but it's proven what we all already knew about him. He's let other people take charge of a situation, partially because he's lazy and partly to pass the buck, but he's he PM and isn't able to do that and it's shown him to be unsuitable for job.
    I agree with you.

    I do have serious concerns about being overly critical of the Government DURING the pandemic. I am fearful that in response to unrelenting criticism, this Government and Boris in particular, will do something inappropriate to curry favour with the voters.

    When it is all over criticise away!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Feels like a more heat than light day on PB.

    Meanwhile wrestling with what to do about father in home with CV19. The home is not communicating at all well, which suggests they are struggling. Phone calls mostly not answered, when you do get through you get carefully worded replies and emails not replied to.

    Contemplating busting Dad out, although not sure is that is wise, legal or because of prescriptions etc technically possible.

    So play nice on PB, this thing isn’t over.

    I don’t know what to advise, especially without knowing your father’s particular circumstances, but you have my absolute sympathy.

    +1 - that sounds a really tough dilemma. Perhaps discuss urgently with his GP, who would coverr the prescriptions aspect if (s)he agrees with taking him out of there?
    My son in laws father (87) is being kept in his home by the authorities despite being in terrible health, falling nearly daily, on a permanent catheter, and confused. He has 4 carers a day and when he falls my son in law or his sister have to attend in ppe before an ambulance is called

    On each occasions recently the paramedics stabilise him and then leave him with his carers. He should be in a nursing home or hospital but neither will take him.

    The really sad issue is his wife is in dementia care in a nearby nursing home but they with not take him to be with her

    This catastrophe is changing so many lives and seems neverending
    Dreadful situation. Awful for your s-i-l and his family and especially for the poor old chap if, as I suspect, he's aware.
    Suspect the Home might not take him because of staff overload. It must be a wits-end situation for many Home Managers, many of whom didn't join to cope with this sort of thing.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Daily confirmed deaths are showing definite weekend drops ternds and for some countries and big drop for easter ( especially Germany, Sweden, France and Ireland) . Clearly an administrative effect.
    Which reminds me. Happy Easter to any Orthodox pb readers, for whom today is Easter Day. Perhaps those countries will show an administrative dip this weekend.
    My wife is celebrating Easter today, which of course I had forgotten until I was woken up with decorated eggs this morning! :D
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    malcolmg said:

    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251730693815705600?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732031815462913?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732692011552769?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733412320366594?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733827103395841?s=20

    While he's right that it appears to be more (to an extent in hindsight) "Poor advice" rather than "ignored advice" Ministers still get to carry the can. What questions didn't they ask? Who did they get to play "devil's advocate" and so on.

    Meanwhile, I assume those calling for Hancock's head will also be calling for the heads of his peers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where responsibility also lies?

    I know you are a paid acolyte of the Tory government but maybe give it a rest now and again.
    Deluded does not quite cover it....

    Sick Kids Hospital finished yet?

    Or is that England's Westminster's fault too?

    Lucky you've got Forty a day Freeman on the case, eh?
    All Bitter and Twisted, you just hate Scotland and especially the SNP, did they refuse to accept you as you were too right wing a Tory to be a member. You will make yourself ill with all that bile.
  • eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Feels like a more heat than light day on PB.

    Meanwhile wrestling with what to do about father in home with CV19. The home is not communicating at all well, which suggests they are struggling. Phone calls mostly not answered, when you do get through you get carefully worded replies and emails not replied to.

    Contemplating busting Dad out, although not sure is that is wise, legal or because of prescriptions etc technically possible.

    So play nice on PB, this thing isn’t over.

    I don’t know what to advise, especially without knowing your father’s particular circumstances, but you have my absolute sympathy.

    +1 - that sounds a really tough dilemma. Perhaps discuss urgently with his GP, who would coverr the prescriptions aspect if (s)he agrees with taking him out of there?
    My son in laws father (87) is being kept in his home by the authorities despite being in terrible health, falling nearly daily, on a permanent catheter, and confused. He has 4 carers a day and when he falls my son in law or his sister have to attend in ppe before an ambulance is called

    On each occasions recently the paramedics stabilise him and then leave him with his carers. He should be in a nursing home or hospital but neither will take him.

    The really sad issue is his wife is in dementia care in a nearby nursing home but they with not take him to be with her

    This catastrophe is changing so many lives and seems neverending

    This is a sad story, like so many at the moment. I feel for all of you involved.
    Thank you and it is distressing, but one of many thousands of similar situations throughout the UK
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
    Currently India has a death rate of just 0.4 per million compared to a global average of 20.7.

    Clearly the fact it has few over 80s who are most at risk of death from coronavirus does seem to be reducing the impact there

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    I think the key there is 'currently'. If you believe the figures, which many don't.

    Looking at the graphs above, we'll all be talking about Russia, India and Africa a month from now. Possibly Brazil too. These countries all have very dense population centres and relatively poor healthcare.
    If it was a disease which affected all ages equally and which killed under 50s at the same rate as over 50s that would be true and India and Africa would be most badly hit.

    However it is a disease which most kills over 80s and it is only countries in the West which tend to have life expectancies over 80 so all the evidence so far is it is richer countries in Europe and North America that have been worst hit
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    Except the experts moved it from low to moderate. I think there will have been a failing in the advice, and a failure in resilience. I’m sure there will be lots of other failures as well. I’m just not sure that the pm not attending a meeting makes the grade
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So far then Starmer has just taken Labour back to its voteshare at the last general election
    Not bad in a fortnight. Just think of what the figures will look like by 2024!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    I guess being PM is more important, but he did have a newly pregnant fiancée at the time I think.

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1251630747078836224
    Let's hope we're not in the middle of another crisis when he inevitably chucks Carrie.
    Having met her, I'd say Carrie wil be chucked about as easily as a bottle bank at a cyclist....
    Let's hope she's not a Dilyn boiler.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.

    Malc - it's their fecking job

    Beats whining about not being able to buy stuff PHE have already bought for distribution in England. Lets hope its up to standard.
    Did I read that the plane with the Turkish PPE kit has been delayed?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.

    Malc - it's their fecking job

    Beats whining about not being able to buy stuff PHE have already bought for distribution in England. Lets hope its up to standard.
    Will be better than the junk tests Hancock bought, or money wasted on imaginary ventilators. Having to wait for your pals to get set up to produce is a real pain, sure they will eventually get round to producing PPE for him..
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Perhaps those meetings aren’t key?
    Really, really unimportant Cobra meetings?
    That’s why I don’t like the obsession with “cobra” as media branding. It is literally just Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. By convention all meetings chaired by the PM are held there.

    But there were multiple Cobra meetings working through the detail of options and consequences. Chaired by the Health Secretary who was responsible for briefing the PM

    When it cane to Cobra meeting drew all the threads together and needed to make decisions s the PM chaired it in person.

    That strikes me as government working g as it should.

    Let me put it another way: would and if those Cobra meetings made different decisions if the PM had been there?
    What it tells me Charles is that the alarm bells were not ringing nearly loud enough. By early February it should have been obvious that this was not just a matter for the Health Secretary but a national emergency that was going to involve almost every arm of government. Whether that failure was systemic, with the relevant experts not having a loud enough voice in the decision making process, or a result of innumerate and distracted politicians failing to grasp what they were being told will no doubt be the central point of the inevitable inquiry.
    In early february it was not clear there would be a pandemic in Europe, but it very definitely was the time to act on "It could hit us badly, we need a cross govenment plan in case it hits us", by early march the epdiemic was real in Northern Italy, with ouutbreaks in Western Geramny and Eastern France. That should have been the time to put the preparations into action.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251730693815705600?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732031815462913?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732692011552769?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733412320366594?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733827103395841?s=20

    While he's right that it appears to be more (to an extent in hindsight) "Poor advice" rather than "ignored advice" Ministers still get to carry the can. What questions didn't they ask? Who did they get to play "devil's advocate" and so on.

    Meanwhile, I assume those calling for Hancock's head will also be calling for the heads of his peers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where responsibility also lies?

    I know you are a paid acolyte of the Tory government but maybe give it a rest now and again.
    Deluded does not quite cover it....

    Sick Kids Hospital finished yet?

    Or is that England's Westminster's fault too?

    Lucky you've got Forty a day Freeman on the case, eh?
    You will make yourself ill with all that bile.
    Look in the mirror.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    I really wish some of you lot would try to be a politician rather than just criticise all the time. I watched a BBC report from Moscow yesterday where ambulance drivers had to wait for 9 hours in a queue with a seriously ill patient in the back. Is that happening here? This is a once in a 100 year pandemic and somehow the Government was supposed to have covered every single base. What they have done throughout is follow the medical professionals advice. This is a disease that no one has seen before and it behaves in the oddest way. The most important thing that the Government has done is to ensure that the NHS was not overwhelmed and they have done that spectacularly well, in fact probably too well. It cracks me up that the slightest criticism of teachers on this site is met with howls of derision yet most of you think you would do a far better job than politicians.

    Bless. Let’s have an 8pm clap for the politicians, the true victims of this crisis.

    It might answer the question of what sound does one hand clapping make.

    I don't think I could give Boris Johnson the clap.

    I'm the wrong gender.
    I hope you're not responsible for Sex Ed in your school.
    I was thinking more that he wouldn't be interested.

    Unless you know something I don't....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Is it really 25 years since the Oklahoma bombing? I might have guessed 15, tops.

    It's almost 19 years since 9/11.
    Yeah, that's the scary one. I can remember it like it was yesterday.
    Me too. I can remember every detail as if it just happened to me. I was on CVN-70 and it became very apparent very quickly that we were soon going to be in a shooting war. I sent a message to the Naval Attaché in DC asking for clarification of my position and any special instructions. I don't know what I was expecting; maybe 'Godspeed and good luck' or an order to jump off the round-down and swim to India. When the reply eventually came a week later it just said, 'If they give you a medal don't accept it.'
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So far then Starmer has just taken Labour back to its voteshare at the last general election
    Not bad in a fortnight. Just think of what the figures will look like by 2024!
    Perhaps Harriet could fit an exponential curve to the data.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251730693815705600?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732031815462913?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732692011552769?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733412320366594?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733827103395841?s=20

    While he's right that it appears to be more (to an extent in hindsight) "Poor advice" rather than "ignored advice" Ministers still get to carry the can. What questions didn't they ask? Who did they get to play "devil's advocate" and so on.

    Meanwhile, I assume those calling for Hancock's head will also be calling for the heads of his peers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where responsibility also lies?

    I know you are a paid acolyte of the Tory government but maybe give it a rest now and again.
    Deluded does not quite cover it....

    Sick Kids Hospital finished yet?

    Or is that England's Westminster's fault too?

    Lucky you've got Forty a day Freeman on the case, eh?
    You will make yourself ill with all that bile.
    Look in the mirror.

    Hours of innocent amusement can be had by watching the comments between you two!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.

    Malc - it's their fecking job

    Beats whining about not being able to buy stuff PHE have already bought for distribution in England. Lets hope its up to standard.
    Did I read that the plane with the Turkish PPE kit has been delayed?
    You did indeed, it is Cockup as you know.
  • Labour gain 4 points in a poll today, although Starmer's approval is down
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251730693815705600?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732031815462913?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251732692011552769?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733412320366594?s=20
    https://twitter.com/prcmarshall/status/1251733827103395841?s=20

    While he's right that it appears to be more (to an extent in hindsight) "Poor advice" rather than "ignored advice" Ministers still get to carry the can. What questions didn't they ask? Who did they get to play "devil's advocate" and so on.

    Meanwhile, I assume those calling for Hancock's head will also be calling for the heads of his peers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where responsibility also lies?

    I know you are a paid acolyte of the Tory government but maybe give it a rest now and again.
    Deluded does not quite cover it....

    Sick Kids Hospital finished yet?

    Or is that England's Westminster's fault too?

    Lucky you've got Forty a day Freeman on the case, eh?
    You will make yourself ill with all that bile.
    Look in the mirror.

    I am serene and too modest to say how good I look in profile.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    I must say that I am impressed that it has taken about 4 weeks into lockdown before some properly serious political troubles for the government to emerge, with accompanying hyperbole for those whom the gov stumbling and having genuine questions to be asked just isn't enough.

    I'll predict that in about 2 weeks the govs ratings will take a sustained hit from the impact of negative stories and, hopefully, the plateau tapering off reducing a rally round the flag effect, combined with the ramping up of lockdown fatigue.

    Within 4 weeks ratings will be about where they were pre crisis.

    This scary. The government might be tempted to boost its ratings by prematurely announcing successes and relaxation of the lockdown.
    Let's see how popular the government is when unemployment touches 7m. Will people still be crying out to be placed under house arrest in their homes? Or will something else matter to them altogether.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/nearly-seven-million-jobs-at-risk-if-lockdown-lasts-for-months
    That hare is already running.

    The main reason I remain broadly agreeable to the Government's handling of the crisis is that I believe the lockdown, irrespective of it's ramifications was the least worst option.

    If Boris feels he is being unloved by the media and his public he may well make a decision that will boost his popularity first and foremost.
    That's what I'm hoping for. Not wishing to be unpopular is a healthy motivator for politicians. I believe they need to take a good look at Sweden and work out how to get us there.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Both are unscrupulous lying lazy egotistic wankers as well
    Morning Malc. Been digging turnips this morning.? It has not improved your humour.
    Unfortunately I have to yet again read about the unscrupulous wankers who rule my country knowing we had a chance to be free of the tossers but were thwarted by similar greedy spineless wankers in Scotland.
    PS: good morning to you, it is another beautiful sunny day here as well.
    Bit of a u-turn on the SNP there Malc, though I do see your point!







    *Oh, you meant Boris.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.

    Malc - it's their fecking job

    Beats whining about not being able to buy stuff PHE have already bought for distribution in England. Lets hope its up to standard.
    Did I read that the plane with the Turkish PPE kit has been delayed?
    You did indeed, it is Cockup as you know.
    Last seen heading for JFK?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris Johnson ducked out of a COBRA meeting to be photographed signing a letter so I can’t muster up too much shock that he couldn’t be arsed finding out what might be happening about a pandemic.

    The idea that it was all some hidden mystery is, however, absurd. I was no great seer but I concluded my article on 19 February with the words:

    “Right now we are at a crisis in the true sense of the word, a moment when we do not know which course a disease is going to take. The stakes are very high indeed. Those of us who are not experts must hope that those who are find a way to keep Covid-19 tamed. The alternatives are just awful.”

    It turns out that the Prime Minister was asleep at the wheel.

    How much do you blame the scientists? If the government was following their advice, it’s hard to be too critical, but like everyone else on here I’d like to think I’d have been a bit more cautious.
    It is the government’s job to understand the advice it is getting and the assumptions it is based upon. The scientists may well have been at substantial fault. That does not absolve the government from its failure to understand the advice it received.
    Bad advice leaves the government in as damned if you do/damned if you don't situation though. If the government had ignored the advice from SAGE would there not be articles now about how we had overreacted and caused unnecessary damage to the economy against the advice of experts?
    That’s not what I said. Advice needs to be understood before acted upon. The advice is not purely scientific and lay upon political assumptions that were the responsibility of politicians. It appears that politicians let scientists take political decisions in ignorance. If the political assumptions had been changed, so might the advice.
    I'm agreeing with you, my problem is with the setup. We have a group of unaccountable scientists making political decisions. The government have failed to give SAGE any kind of serious oversight and I think both Boris and Hancock are at fault here. Personally, I think Hancock needs to fall for a lot of this, he's clearly not up to the job and has been far too reliant on the experts for making the decisions for him. If Boris hadn't just won an 80 seat majority I think he'd be in serious trouble too. Politically Boris is safe I think, but it's proven what we all already knew about him. He's let other people take charge of a situation, partially because he's lazy and partly to pass the buck, but he's he PM and isn't able to do that and it's shown him to be unsuitable for job.
    I agree with you.

    I do have serious concerns about being overly critical of the Government DURING the pandemic. I am fearful that in response to unrelenting criticism, this Government and Boris in particular, will do something inappropriate to curry favour with the voters.

    When it is all over criticise away!
    Fair point!
  • Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Feels like a more heat than light day on PB.

    Meanwhile wrestling with what to do about father in home with CV19. The home is not communicating at all well, which suggests they are struggling. Phone calls mostly not answered, when you do get through you get carefully worded replies and emails not replied to.

    Contemplating busting Dad out, although not sure is that is wise, legal or because of prescriptions etc technically possible.

    So play nice on PB, this thing isn’t over.

    I don’t know what to advise, especially without knowing your father’s particular circumstances, but you have my absolute sympathy.

    +1 - that sounds a really tough dilemma. Perhaps discuss urgently with his GP, who would coverr the prescriptions aspect if (s)he agrees with taking him out of there?
    My son in laws father (87) is being kept in his home by the authorities despite being in terrible health, falling nearly daily, on a permanent catheter, and confused. He has 4 carers a day and when he falls my son in law or his sister have to attend in ppe before an ambulance is called

    On each occasions recently the paramedics stabilise him and then leave him with his carers. He should be in a nursing home or hospital but neither will take him.

    The really sad issue is his wife is in dementia care in a nearby nursing home but they with not take him to be with her

    This catastrophe is changing so many lives and seems neverending
    Dreadful situation. Awful for your s-i-l and his family and especially for the poor old chap if, as I suspect, he's aware.
    Suspect the Home might not take him because of staff overload. It must be a wits-end situation for many Home Managers, many of whom didn't join to cope with this sort of thing.

    To be honest I could and have wept a few times at the absolute upending of our emotions and indeed he is aware of it, distressed at the separation from his wife, and at times he becomes very confused. To loving families it becomes unbearable

    I believe the nursing homes have effectively closed their doors leaving many elderly to try to cope at home with little safeguarding
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Labour gain 4 points in a poll today, although Starmer's approval is down

    Worry not. These opinion polls at this time are as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    The EBC is pathetic, £320M a year for these useless tw**s

    No Sunday Politics Scotland, @BBCScotland
    ? Isn’t there a wee crisis going on? Or does it not concern us in Scotland? Perhaps U.K. Gov is looking after us? You really are pathetic, BBC. And don’t tell us there is prog at 2.30- that is essentially Gov statement.
  • Labour gain 4 points in a poll today, although Starmer's approval is down

    Worry not. These opinion polls at this time are as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
    I'm not worrying, I'm just posting!

    Whilst I think Starmer is incredibly boring, the majority see him as an improvement on Corbyn, so if we were to predict, he should be able to reach 40% in the polls since Corbyn managed that in 2017.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    I must say that I am impressed that it has taken about 4 weeks into lockdown before some properly serious political troubles for the government to emerge, with accompanying hyperbole for those whom the gov stumbling and having genuine questions to be asked just isn't enough.

    I'll predict that in about 2 weeks the govs ratings will take a sustained hit from the impact of negative stories and, hopefully, the plateau tapering off reducing a rally round the flag effect, combined with the ramping up of lockdown fatigue.

    Within 4 weeks ratings will be about where they were pre crisis.

    This scary. The government might be tempted to boost its ratings by prematurely announcing successes and relaxation of the lockdown.
    Let's see how popular the government is when unemployment touches 7m. Will people still be crying out to be placed under house arrest in their homes? Or will something else matter to them altogether.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/nearly-seven-million-jobs-at-risk-if-lockdown-lasts-for-months
    That hare is already running.

    The main reason I remain broadly agreeable to the Government's handling of the crisis is that I believe the lockdown, irrespective of it's ramifications was the least worst option.

    If Boris feels he is being unloved by the media and his public he may well make a decision that will boost his popularity first and foremost.
    That's what I'm hoping for. Not wishing to be unpopular is a healthy motivator for politicians. I believe they need to take a good look at Sweden and work out how to get us there.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Both are unscrupulous lying lazy egotistic wankers as well
    Morning Malc. Been digging turnips this morning.? It has not improved your humour.
    Unfortunately I have to yet again read about the unscrupulous wankers who rule my country knowing we had a chance to be free of the tossers but were thwarted by similar greedy spineless wankers in Scotland.
    PS: good morning to you, it is another beautiful sunny day here as well.
    Bit of a u-turn on the SNP there Malc, though I do see your point!







    *Oh, you meant Boris.
    Naughty Naughty :D:D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    edited April 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data



    Russia and India definitely look like the next big problem countries.
    Currently India has a death rate of just 0.4 per million compared to a global average of 20.7.

    Clearly the fact it has few over 80s who are most at risk of death from coronavirus does seem to be reducing the impact there

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    I think the key there is 'currently'. If you believe the figures, which many don't.

    Looking at the graphs above, we'll all be talking about Russia, India and Africa a month from now. Possibly Brazil too. These countries all have very dense population centres and relatively poor healthcare.
    If it was a disease which affected all ages equally and which killed under 50s at the same rate as over 50s that would be true and India and Africa would be most badly hit.

    However it is a disease which most kills over 80s and it is only countries in the West which tend to have life expectancies over 80 so all the evidence so far is it is richer countries in Europe and North America that have been worst hit
    In the less developed countries, you see people in their forties and fifties with severe illnesses, which often go untreated. Dense populations, poor healthcare and a cultural lack of respect for personal space are all exacerbating factors.

    I've been consistent in my belief that India is going to be hit very hard indeed by this virus, and I see nothing in the published figures to make me change my mind.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Government having to do it themselves, Carlotta will be raging.

    Malc - it's their fecking job

    Beats whining about not being able to buy stuff PHE have already bought for distribution in England. Lets hope its up to standard.
    Did I read that the plane with the Turkish PPE kit has been delayed?
    You did indeed, it is Cockup as you know.
    Last seen heading for JFK?
    Boris sold it to his pal Trump
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    kyf_100 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    I must say that I am impressed that it has taken about 4 weeks into lockdown before some properly serious political troubles for the government to emerge, with accompanying hyperbole for those whom the gov stumbling and having genuine questions to be asked just isn't enough.

    I'll predict that in about 2 weeks the govs ratings will take a sustained hit from the impact of negative stories and, hopefully, the plateau tapering off reducing a rally round the flag effect, combined with the ramping up of lockdown fatigue.

    Within 4 weeks ratings will be about where they were pre crisis.

    This scary. The government might be tempted to boost its ratings by prematurely announcing successes and relaxation of the lockdown.
    Let's see how popular the government is when unemployment touches 7m. Will people still be crying out to be placed under house arrest in their homes? Or will something else matter to them altogether.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/nearly-seven-million-jobs-at-risk-if-lockdown-lasts-for-months
    That hare is already running.

    The main reason I remain broadly agreeable to the Government's handling of the crisis is that I believe the lockdown, irrespective of it's ramifications was the least worst option.

    If Boris feels he is being unloved by the media and his public he may well make a decision that will boost his popularity first and foremost.
    That's what I'm hoping for. Not wishing to be unpopular is a healthy motivator for politicians. I believe they need to take a good look at Sweden and work out how to get us there.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Both are unscrupulous lying lazy egotistic wankers as well
    Morning Malc. Been digging turnips this morning.? It has not improved your humour.
    Unfortunately I have to yet again read about the unscrupulous wankers who rule my country knowing we had a chance to be free of the tossers but were thwarted by similar greedy spineless wankers in Scotland.
    PS: good morning to you, it is another beautiful sunny day here as well.
    Bit of a u-turn on the SNP there Malc, though I do see your point!







    *Oh, you meant Boris.
    The ferry from Immingham will get you to Sweden! I trust you are not alluding to their herd-immunity strategy.
  • If I were to take some of the "rallying" effect away, I would say Johnson's Government will probably poll somewhere between 40 and 50% in normal times. Labour will want to be in the high 30s before long, to be showing good signs of progress.

    The party that appears to have done "best" in an election always seems to gain after for some time. Labour did that in 2017, where they were ahead for a couple of months after.

    So my guess would be that rallying around + winning party boost is probably inflating the Tory numbers somewhat.

    I would predict to see Labour lead in one poll over the next five years.
This discussion has been closed.