" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Those that are excellent, are (generally) sought after.
Those that aren't, (generally) end up in the schools that don't have a choice.
Not sure it works very efficiently as you think. You can't really 'seek after' a good individual teacher. And there are many frictions that make teachers stay where they are, or move for reasons other the opportunity to teach the richest kids.
Also, needless to say, the situation you describe does not lend itself to good outcomes for even above-median kids.
Mrs B's school (league table-topping private girls school) is finding it hard to even get applicants for some posts and they pay well above average. Meanwhile one of my neighbours chooses to teach in a sink school out of quite an interesting sense of moral duty.
Oh, it's completely inefficient and ridiculously hap-hazard.
But I have witnessed a Head Teacher using all kinds of tugging-the-grapevine stuff to find out if applicant X is good or not.
There is also the question of what "good" means? Riot control or motivation? Stretching the top set or getting as many as possible average pupils through? There was an interview somewhere with David Cameron musing on whether Eton was becoming an academic hothouse at the expense of rich clots, but whether it is or isn't, we might suspect that demands on teachers will be different in each case. For boarding schools, where students are onsite and awake for triple the time, can a new teacher run extra-curricular activities? Is there a star name? A chap in the betting shop chose his son's public school because the cricket coach was a recently retired Test player. Shades of moosehead professors at American universities!
And even if you can agree on what you are looking for, can you judge these qualities? We've heard a lot about test reliability recently with regard to the pandemic, and interviews are notoriously unreliable. Even supposing you get any applicants at all, as @edb has mentioned.
I agree completely - the current situation seems to be a denial of differences in ability between teachers and then trying to fix the problem by all kinds of back channel actions.
In the case of teachers that did pass their probation - at one couldn't keep order in a class. The other was simply not good at getting the children to learn. Their replacements - teaching exactly the same children - did manage to do both.
In other words, the human reaction to a system that doesn't work - go around it.
Those that are excellent, are (generally) sought after.
Those that aren't, (generally) end up in the schools that don't have a choice.
Not sure it works very efficiently as you think. You can't really 'seek after' a good individual teacher. And there are many frictions that make teachers stay where they are, or move for reasons other the opportunity to teach the richest kids.
Also, needless to say, the situation you describe does not lend itself to good outcomes for even above-median kids.
Mrs B's school (league table-topping private girls school) is finding it hard to even get applicants for some posts and they pay well above average. Meanwhile one of my neighbours chooses to teach in a sink school out of quite an interesting sense of moral duty.
Oh, it's completely inefficient and ridiculously hap-hazard.
But I have witnessed a Head Teacher using all kinds of tugging-the-grapevine stuff to find out if applicant X is good or not.
There is also the question of what "good" means? Riot control or motivation? Stretching the top set or getting as many as possible average pupils through? There was an interview somewhere with David Cameron musing on whether Eton was becoming an academic hothouse at the expense of rich clots, but whether it is or isn't, we might suspect that demands on teachers will be different in each case. For boarding schools, where students are onsite and awake for triple the time, can a new teacher run extra-curricular activities? Is there a star name? A chap in the betting shop chose his son's public school because the cricket coach was a recently retired Test player. Shades of moosehead professors at American universities!
And even if you can agree on what you are looking for, can you judge these qualities? We've heard a lot about test reliability recently with regard to the pandemic, and interviews are notoriously unreliable. Even supposing you get any applicants at all, as @edb has mentioned.
I agree completely - the current situation seems to be a denial of differences in ability between teachers and then trying to fix the problem by all kinds of back channel actions.
In the case of teachers that did pass their probation - at one couldn't keep order in a class. The other was simply not good at getting the children to learn. Their replacements - teaching exactly the same children - did manage to do both.
In other words, the human reaction to a system that doesn't work - go around it.
Rather than fix it. Depressingly common.
Fix it means trying to fight the entire infrastructure of the education industry. You'll get reviled in the Guardian and the TES. And get nowhere.
If you are just trying to get a teacher for 4b, the average School Head may take a short cut, rather than do the above.
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
A windfall tax won't help newspapers become sustainable.
Leaving aside the abhorrence of windfall taxes, they bring income in a one-off way.
Sustainability means something that can be maintained for years. Pretending a one-off tax take can be used for long term spending is daft.
We also need to consider why the brute force of state taxation should be used to supply funds to private enterprise.
Newspapers seem ridiculously expensive to me now. I enjoy reading them and can comfortably afford them but paying £2 for a daily paper seems extraodinary when I can get the metro or standard for free plus news whenever I want it online or on tv.
At 50p Id start to be interested again.
50 years ago there was no internet and no 24 hour news and only 3 channels on the TV.
Newspapers were the main source of news for most people and had a mass readership so could afford to price themselves cheaply and still make a profit.
Now newspapers if they want to make a profit have to price their papers much more highly to make a profit from a much smaller readership, especially if they are broadsheets which will not be funded completely by advertisers for cheap, populist fare that attracts more readers but want to stick to higher quality articles which their select readership will pay more for
Newspapers were as much about entertainment at least as much as news, at least since the coming of the BBC. They gave readers something to keep the mind active during commuting or just sitting at home or, for posh people, at the club.
When I was briefly in newspapers decades ago, the rule of thumb was that broadsheets were paid by advertising, tabloids by cover price. Even so, losses were common. For instance, The Times hated the fact it was subsidised by the Sunday Times (which used to be a completely unrelated paper, btw; the similar name is a coincidence).
Now, the main problems are fewer commuters, and the ones who are left are entertained by free papers, phones, kindles and so on. This means that newsagents often do not bother opening early so even if said commuters wanted to buy a paper, they can't: a viscious circle. Which creates the other viscious circle earlier in this subthread: higher prices mean fewer readers mean higher prices. And less money for writers and journalists so quality falls so readers depart which means less money...
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Fraser Nelson's lacerating article on government policy is a must read.
Among the stats he reveals is that a third of the excess deaths in recent weeks cannot be attributed to Coronavirus.
It might be inferred from that is that lockdown isn't just destroying our economy. It may very well already be costing lives. Significant numbers of them.
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
I was worried about it being rejected from two papers, but that was before I saw that it was accepted by prestigious publication "lockdownsceptics.org"
Fraser Nelson's lacerating article on government policy is a must read.
Among the stats he reveals is that a third of the excess deaths in recent weeks cannot be attributed to Coronavirus.
It might be inferred from that is that lockdown isn't just destroying our economy. It may very well already be costing lives. Significant numbers of them.
Yep, there is something vampiric about it. In the case of Sir Mick, the quality of muses must have gone down the pan a bit, he & Keef haven't produced a banger for going on 40 years (though they have a great heap of laurel strewn bangers to rest upon I will happily admit).
Last great Stones album for me was Some Girls (1978). Which I actually like more now than some of the more celebrated ones.
Fraser Nelson's lacerating article on government policy is a must read.
Among the stats he reveals is that a third of the excess deaths in recent weeks cannot be attributed to Coronavirus.
It might be inferred from that is that lockdown isn't just destroying our economy. It may very well already be costing lives. Significant numbers of them.
Fraser Nelson's lacerating article on government policy is a must read.
Among the stats he reveals is that a third of the excess deaths in recent weeks cannot be attributed to Coronavirus.
It might be inferred from that is that lockdown isn't just destroying our economy. It may very well already be costing lives. Significant numbers of them.
Cannot, or weren't?
I think he used cannot.
Then that should be obvious on the death certificate. Cannot implies there is no chance of it being related to coronavirus.
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
Even when Johnson is inevitably brought down by a scandal he can't lie his way out of and the tories change leader; that won't be enough to trigger a GE. It would have to be something that would cause 40+ tories to vote against the government in a VoC. Given that your average tory MP has the integrity of a jackal it's hard to imagine what that something would be.
The last two Conservative Prime Ministers who have taken over mid-parliament have of their own accord held early elections: Theresa May and Boris himself. I'd not rule out the next one doing the same even though there is no need.
One other possible factor: the Scots voting for independence, if the Scottish Government holds its own referendum, or the SNP (not strictly the same thing) holds an unofficial one.
Well, one thing at least seems to be getting back to normal. Today I had a nuisance phone call. First one since the UK's lock-down started. The silence of the phones in that respect has been very welcome, only times the phone has rung it's been people I know.
Good afternoon, everybody. PB has been (is being) a wonderful resource during the days of isolation.
IHME was due to release their updated figures on the 15th. This was pushed back to the 16th. and then the afternoon of the 16th.
Still no sign of it and no word on when it will be published.
Suspect their model has finally collapsed and is spitting out absurd figures (or even more absurd figures than before) than even they can see are wacky.
Think the "World-leading disease data analysts" as the guardian described them have pretty much trashed their reputation.
Swab testers going home early as they have no swabs to analyse
Who would have thought setting up mass testing centres that require NHS staff to travel up to 90 mins for a test would be under capacity. Need to get them more local.
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
I was worried about it being rejected from two papers, but that was before I saw that it was accepted by prestigious publication "lockdownsceptics.org"
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
The thing with masks is, yes they're beneficial, and yes, we'd wear them on public transport, but what about when we're in the office, at a conference, in a pub? That's where the real danger lies, and that's when you're likely to take your mask off along with your coat and gloves.
This is an interesting post. Due to being in "shielding" and been housebound post-op for a couple of months before that, my only trip out to the outside world since everything got Too Real was to get a blood test, and it really struck me how the receptionist sat far back from the front desk with a heavy-duty respirator on (think it was from his DIY woodworking kit rather than medical stock though). When I see TV presenters interviewing someone I do wonder at what point, if any, we're going to see them wearing masks too. That would bring things home...
Yep, there is something vampiric about it. In the case of Sir Mick, the quality of muses must have gone down the pan a bit, he & Keef haven't produced a banger for going on 40 years (though they have a great heap of laurel strewn bangers to rest upon I will happily admit).
Last great Stones album for me was Some Girls (1978). Which I actually like more now than some of the more celebrated ones.
Pretty much the same for me, though I spent a dope filled summer listening endlessly to Emotional Rescue. Didn't really stick with me afterwards though.
Well, one thing at least seems to be getting back to normal. Today I had a nuisance phone call. First one since the UK's lock-down started. The silence of the phones in that respect has been very welcome, only times the phone has rung it's been people I know.
Good afternoon, everybody. PB has been (is being) a wonderful resource during the days of isolation.
There was a recent report that spam and scams were up 4,000 per cent since the pandemic started. Good luck everyone.
Guernsey Covid-19 briefing - success to date down to early lockdown, testing and control of borders. Control of borders will probably be the last thing to go.
Swab testers going home early as they have no swabs to analyse
Who would have thought setting up mass testing centres that require NHS staff to travel up to 90 mins for a test would be under capacity. Need to get them more local.
They recently opened a drive through one at the Ikea at the Metro Centre here. Just for NHS and care staff though I believe. Anyone know if you need a referral to go?
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
The only reason an election happens next year is if it turns out the government has made enormous errors of judgement regarding the covid-19 situation. That seems unlikely at present.
Don't know if it's been discussed already on PB but Bob Dylan's recently released 16 min magnum opus on the murder of JFK, is well worth a listen.
First original song he's released in years and a welcome change from the string of album releases which have been cover versions from the Great American Songbook.
If we have time to listen to a song like this it is surely now.
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
Even when Johnson is inevitably brought down by a scandal he can't lie his way out of and the tories change leader; that won't be enough to trigger a GE. It would have to be something that would cause 40+ tories to vote against the government in a VoC. Given that your average tory MP has the integrity of a jackal it's hard to imagine what that something would be.
The last two Conservative Prime Ministers who have taken over mid-parliament have of their own accord held early elections: Theresa May and Boris himself. I'd not rule out the next one doing the same even though there is no need.
One other possible factor: the Scots voting for independence, if the Scottish Government holds its own referendum, or the SNP (not strictly the same thing) holds an unofficial one.
The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of no indyref2 during this parliament, so the Scottish government can do what it likes, even if the SNP win a majority next year the UK government like the Spanish government in Catalonia will ignore it.
The 2014 referendum was once in a generation and No won
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
Swab testers going home early as they have no swabs to analyse
Who would have thought setting up mass testing centres that require NHS staff to travel up to 90 mins for a test would be under capacity. Need to get them more local.
They recently opened a drive through one at the Ikea at the Metro Centre here. Just for NHS and care staff though I believe. Anyone know if you need a referral to go?
You need a letter from your manager at our drive thru..
10% of our staff off with Covid19 quarantine at present, in a big Acute Trust.
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
Even when Johnson is inevitably brought down by a scandal he can't lie his way out of and the tories change leader; that won't be enough to trigger a GE. It would have to be something that would cause 40+ tories to vote against the government in a VoC. Given that your average tory MP has the integrity of a jackal it's hard to imagine what that something would be.
The last two Conservative Prime Ministers who have taken over mid-parliament have of their own accord held early elections: Theresa May and Boris himself. I'd not rule out the next one doing the same even though there is no need.
One other possible factor: the Scots voting for independence, if the Scottish Government holds its own referendum, or the SNP (not strictly the same thing) holds an unofficial one.
The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of no indyref2 during this parliament, so the Scottish government can do what it likes, even if the SNP win a majority next year the UK government like the Spanish government in Catalonia will ignore it.
The 2014 referendum was once in a generation and No won
I hope everyone has had their lunch before reading this little piece on the Smithfield Pork factory in South Dakota. No lockdown in that State at present.
Don't know if it's been discussed already on PB but Bob Dylan's recently released 16 min magnum opus on the murder of JFK, is well worth a listen.
First original song he's released in years and a welcome change from the string of album releases which have been cover versions from the Great American Songbook.
If we have time to listen to a song like this it is surely now.
Pitch perfect timing and very resonant.
I love Dylan but was not expecting anything new from him as good as (I'm told) this is. Planning to do it with first drink later today. 6 ish.
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Downing Street also suggested summer holidays should not be booked yet as there is no certainty of when the lockdown will be lifted and travel can resume.
We ain't going anywhere folks until at least September.
To be fair, watching footage of last night from up and down the country, quite a few people seem to get distracted / overexcited to be out the house and all seem to bunch up in the street.
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Downing Street also suggested summer holidays should not be booked yet as there is no certainty of when the lockdown will be lifted and travel can resume.
We ain't going anywhere folks until at least September.
I'd be surprised to see much foreign travel in Europe before September.
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
Even when Johnson is inevitably brought down by a scandal he can't lie his way out of and the tories change leader; that won't be enough to trigger a GE. It would have to be something that would cause 40+ tories to vote against the government in a VoC. Given that your average tory MP has the integrity of a jackal it's hard to imagine what that something would be.
The last two Conservative Prime Ministers who have taken over mid-parliament have of their own accord held early elections: Theresa May and Boris himself. I'd not rule out the next one doing the same even though there is no need.
One other possible factor: the Scots voting for independence, if the Scottish Government holds its own referendum, or the SNP (not strictly the same thing) holds an unofficial one.
The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of no indyref2 during this parliament, so the Scottish government can do what it likes, even if the SNP win a majority next year the UK government like the Spanish government in Catalonia will ignore it.
The 2014 referendum was once in a generation and No won
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
Even when Johnson is inevitably brought down by a scandal he can't lie his way out of and the tories change leader; that won't be enough to trigger a GE. It would have to be something that would cause 40+ tories to vote against the government in a VoC. Given that your average tory MP has the integrity of a jackal it's hard to imagine what that something would be.
The last two Conservative Prime Ministers who have taken over mid-parliament have of their own accord held early elections: Theresa May and Boris himself. I'd not rule out the next one doing the same even though there is no need.
One other possible factor: the Scots voting for independence, if the Scottish Government holds its own referendum, or the SNP (not strictly the same thing) holds an unofficial one.
The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of no indyref2 during this parliament, so the Scottish government can do what it likes, even if the SNP win a majority next year the UK government like the Spanish government in Catalonia will ignore it.
The 2014 referendum was once in a generation and No won
Why is whatever Spain did the standard?
Even if only Canada is, Quebec only had a second independence referendum 15 years after the first
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Downing Street also suggested summer holidays should not be booked yet as there is no certainty of when the lockdown will be lifted and travel can resume.
We ain't going anywhere folks until at least September.
Nothing to do with Coronavirus though right? that advice is being given on the basis the economy will be so shattered by a September nobody will be able to afford those holidays.
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Is that as a mask, or BROTH substitute ?
As a chest poultice, held in place by a bra.
I really wish I were joking, but I am not. They will be burning witches again round here shortly!
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Is that as a mask, or BROTH substitute ?
As a chest poultice, held in place by a bra.
I really wish I were joking, but I am not. They will be burning witches again round here shortly!
I'm struggling to think of the appropriate control arm for the RCT...
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
With added garlic. For the vampires. You can never be too careful....
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
The only reason an election happens next year is if it turns out the government has made enormous errors of judgement regarding the covid-19 situation. That seems unlikely at present.
EU relationship seems more plausible. If the govt has cocked up significantly and cant get away with it, then just up to the Tory party to install a new PM and cabinet.
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Although deaths not increasing, we are still seeing a large % of positive tests. I think we should brace ourselves for a very long tail of daily deaths.
OT: If any F1 fans here are missing the season, Formula 1 have put some full races on their Youtube channel. Currently watching one with Murray Walker commentating, it's bliss
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Is that as a mask, or BROTH substitute ?
As a chest poultice, held in place by a bra.
I really wish I were joking, but I am not. They will be burning witches again round here shortly!
My mother used to give me a goose fat poultice held in place by a liberty bodice for the winter to ward off TB. It did the trick.
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Is that as a mask, or BROTH substitute ?
Not sure I would go with the onion poultice. PB's house Epidemiologist has previously declared broth to be the answer so I'll stick with that.
David Starkey used to make interesting history documentaries; I have at least six of his DVDs on the shelf. But now he seems to have become the thinking viewers' Katie Hopkins, a professional controversialist.
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Is that as a mask, or BROTH substitute ?
As a chest poultice, held in place by a bra.
I really wish I were joking, but I am not. They will be burning witches again round here shortly!
My mother used to give me a goose fat poultice held in place by a liberty bodice for the winter to ward off TB. It did the trick.
Have you seen the F1 drivers racing each other online? The Indy car drivers are doing it too.
Although deaths not increasing, we are still seeing a large % of positive tests. I think we should brace ourselves for a very long tail of daily deaths.
That's the thing - the message from Italy and Spain, and now looking the same for the UK - we may have reached the peak but numbers of deaths are only declining very slowly.
Don't know if it's been discussed already on PB but Bob Dylan's recently released 16 min magnum opus on the murder of JFK, is well worth a listen.
First original song he's released in years and a welcome change from the string of album releases which have been cover versions from the Great American Songbook.
If we have time to listen to a song like this it is surely now.
Pitch perfect timing and very resonant.
I love Dylan but was not expecting anything new from him as good as (I'm told) this is. Planning to do it with first drink later today. 6 ish.
Starts off banal, but persist, as it steadily improves. Strangely soothing, and I imagine it would work very well indeed accompanied by a large malt, or G&T.
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Is that as a mask, or BROTH substitute ?
As a chest poultice, held in place by a bra.
I really wish I were joking, but I am not. They will be burning witches again round here shortly!
My mother used to give me a goose fat poultice held in place by a liberty bodice for the winter to ward off TB. It did the trick.
Have you seen the F1 drivers racing each other online? The Indy car drivers are doing it too.
Did you mean to quote me? If so, I've seen the F1 with a few others one. Great fun. Poor Ben Stokes (although he seems to be about as good as Johnny Herbert is!)
Starts off banal, but persist, as it steadily improves. Strangely soothing, and I imagine it would work very well indeed accompanied by a large malt, or G&T.
Right. It will have to be the malt then. Gin revs me up and we don't want that right now.
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
He claims to be an academic epidemiologist, though. And he thinks that the infection fatality rate can be only slightly bigger than the percentage of the whole population of NYC who have already been killed by the virus, at this early stage ...
It is quite astonishing that anyone could still be claiming that the infection fatality rate could be as low as 0.13%, seeing that even taking only confirmed cases into account 0.09% of the population of New York City has already died. And we may be only halfway through the first wave.
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
I don't find it astonishing. We're in a truly terrible place with no clear and quick way out. If the mortality rate is tiny it follows that we are close to mass immunity already - since millions will have had it and barely known they were sick. This is a devastatingly attractive notion. It's up there with the magic money tree and life after death. If anything I'm surprised how few believers it has garnered.
I thought all we needed to do with turn off the 5G masts?
I think they need to be burned down by a pitchfork waving mob, but perhaps we are a bit more rustic where I live.
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
Is that as a mask, or BROTH substitute ?
As a chest poultice, held in place by a bra.
I really wish I were joking, but I am not. They will be burning witches again round here shortly!
Blimey. Still, cremation would prevent further transmission.
Comments
There is a reason for peer-review in science.
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/The-Spanish-Flu-pandemic-of-1918/
If you are just trying to get a teacher for 4b, the average School Head may take a short cut, rather than do the above.
His website address tells you where his views lies.
I mean lockdown sceptics?
When I was briefly in newspapers decades ago, the rule of thumb was that broadsheets were paid by advertising, tabloids by cover price. Even so, losses were common. For instance, The Times hated the fact it was subsidised by the Sunday Times (which used to be a completely unrelated paper, btw; the similar name is a coincidence).
Now, the main problems are fewer commuters, and the ones who are left are entertained by free papers, phones, kindles and so on. This means that newsagents often do not bother opening early so even if said commuters wanted to buy a paper, they can't: a viscious circle. Which creates the other viscious circle earlier in this subthread: higher prices mean fewer readers mean higher prices. And less money for writers and journalists so quality falls so readers depart which means less money...
Among the stats he reveals is that a third of the excess deaths in recent weeks cannot be attributed to Coronavirus.
It might be inferred from that is that lockdown isn't just destroying our economy. It may very well already be costing lives. Significant numbers of them.
https://twitter.com/Mike_Blackley/status/1251036278566592512?s=20
https://twitter.com/NatHunter_1/status/1251089892962009088?s=20
11 people under 45 with no underlying health conditions have died. 9 men and 2 women.
One other possible factor: the Scots voting for independence, if the Scottish Government holds its own referendum, or the SNP (not strictly the same thing) holds an unofficial one.
Good afternoon, everybody. PB has been (is being) a wonderful resource during the days of isolation.
The Conservative Party wants more scrutiny of the government north of Hadrian's Wall; less south.
But you are. Hence it would be nice to hear about it from you.
Still no sign of it and no word on when it will be published.
Suspect their model has finally collapsed and is spitting out absurd figures (or even more absurd figures than before) than even they can see are wacky.
Think the "World-leading disease data analysts" as the guardian described them have pretty much trashed their reputation.
Who would have thought setting up mass testing centres that require NHS staff to travel up to 90 mins for a test would be under capacity. Need to get them more local.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/swab-tester-uk-germany-south-korea
So far from the "research" of these people being publicised online, I should think a very good case could be made for them to be confined in padded cells.
First original song he's released in years and a welcome change from the string of album releases which have been cover versions from the Great American Songbook.
If we have time to listen to a song like this it is surely now.
Pitch perfect timing and very resonant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NbQkyvbw18
Down from the past 2 days.
The 2014 referendum was once in a generation and No won
10% of our staff off with Covid19 quarantine at present, in a big Acute Trust.
https://twitter.com/GetBritainOut/status/1251125319601438723?s=19
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1250961644043280384?s=19
Chlorine chicken sounds nicer than Coronavirus chops.
Downing Street also suggested summer holidays should not be booked yet as there is no certainty of when the lockdown will be lifted and travel can resume.
We ain't going anywhere folks until at least September.
Seems the government is doing OK then
The Met says its officers will be reminded of the importance of "social distancing" as videos show people close to one another."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-met-police-criticised-for-allowing-clapping-crowds-to-flout-lockdown-rules-on-westminster-bridge-11974644
I kid you not. Onion poultices are all the rage for Covid19 in my village, yes really!
And is there any shortage of sources of news - surely all kinds of new online sources have sprung up over the last few years.
This is also relevant to the debate about BBC taking adverts. It's often claimed "if BBC take adverts then commercial TV stations will close".
But look how much advertising the internet has taken in recent years - that hasn't led to commercial TV stations closing down.
In fact we have more TV channels than ever before - just as we have more sources of news than ever before.
So the last thing we need is subsidies to give certain people an unfair advantage.
https://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_risk/committees/scmp/documents/cv_paunio_en.pdf
Are Northern Ireland going to raise them, make it 7, maybe Scotland will go for a 10 point plan.
I really wish I were joking, but I am not. They will be burning witches again round here shortly!
Cummings.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1251134956555907072?s=20
Strangely soothing, and I imagine it would work very well indeed accompanied by a large malt, or G&T.
Still, cremation would prevent further transmission.