Interesting snippet: wife was speaking to Marianne Faithfull yesterday, who is making slow but steady recovery after having the virus. But everybody else in the hospital (one of the larger London ones) who was admitted on the day she was has died.
He’s probably right isn’t he? What difference would it really make? There’s nearly 70m of us.
It means that the country will be continually reinfected.
Who are these 15,000 people a week? We know there is a steady stream of returning nationals - but who else? Hard to see why we are having anyone arrive at the moment.
You can be sure that the government doesn't know and doesn't care.
We should at the very least introduce a visa system for everyone entering the UK. On the fruit pickers, I expect the labour could have been found domestically.
Strange, that. I thought there'd be hoards of Brexiteers clamouring for the chance to take over from the Romanians.
Interesting snippet: wife was speaking to Marianne Faithfull yesterday, who is making slow but steady recovery after having the virus. But everybody else in the hospital (one of the larger London ones) who was admitted on the day she was has died.
Wake up, do exercises, spend an hour doing Hungarian translation exercises, do chores as instructed by higher powers, lunch, spend time in the garden or write, go for a walk, dinner, talk, listen to music or watch TV. Spending more time online is fitted in throughout this.
That's nice.
I'm working harder than I ever have before during this - I'm up at 5am and in bed by 11pm and either working or looking after my child the whole time in between (she is currently distracted by Milkshake).
My wife is the same.
I'm impressed. To be honest I am almost the exact opposite. I am finding concentration very difficult and don't even get on with the work I have to do. My productivity isn't even a quarter of what it is in normal times. I am spending a lot of time walking and running but find I don't even have the concentration span for books. I fear it is indicative of depression. I am finding I am spending a lot of time on PB, probably too much to be honest, but it is a comfort. I really cannot wait for this to be over but the financial implications will be with me for a long time.
Where my partner and I benefit enormously now is that we have been through one life-changing disaster, so this is not new territory. What you learn is to put the past to one side as much as you can and focus on your goals for the future.
My partner made a full recovery in part because he wasted little time with regret and from a very early stage put all his energies into his recovery. In this respect he is inspirational. We are all suffering a catastrophe and how we recover from it will depend on what we do in the coming weeks and months.
It’s ok to not be ok. None of us are ok. And if you fear you are depressed, get the professional help you need. Just asking for it is a major step forward. However, it may well be that your state of mind now reflects that you understand the future more clearly than many. This is not a holiday, but limbo, an ante-chamber to purgatory. Far too few really understand that yet.
Right now there are limited things we can do, but never let a crisis go to waste. Now is a good time to reflect, so if you can’t concentrate on reading (I can’t either), try thinking through what needs to be done. Write down lists of them. Do one or two things on the list each day.
It won’t feel like much but when you look over time at long lists of ticked-off items, you start to realise you are doing things after all.
Thanks Alastair, I really appreciate that.
Sorry to hear that. One of the few advantages of a more..er..variegated career trajectory is that major upheavals don't come as quite such a shock.
As Alastair M. suggests, if you're at the point where you think that you may be depressed rather than feeling justifiably gloomy because the world is going to hell in a handcart, in my experience that might be the time to speak to a professional.
Interesting snippet: wife was speaking to Marianne Faithfull yesterday, who is making slow but steady recovery after having the virus. But everybody else in the hospital (one of the larger London ones) who was admitted on the day she was has died.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
The Covid-19 mortality rate in Germany, which had drawn a lot of attention in the early phase of the pandemic, has meanwhile increased to 2.9%.
That suggests that the early anomaly whereby Germany seemed to have an extremely low mortality rate compared with other countries was a reflection of earlier testing rather than a real difference in outcomes.
Furthermore, I can't remember the exact stat, but in the early weeks of this, the average age of those found to be infected in Germany was ~20 years younger than places like Italy.
They are still doing really well (although another 300 death day reported today), but the initial outbreak was definitely concentrated among younger people.
Then their quick testing probably helped stop an Italy situation, where it seems youngsters went for their weekend meal with nonna, and gave it to them.
Their Mortality rate of 2.9% compares with ours of 13.3%.
Not mortality rate, Case Fatality Rate. Nobody knows the true mortality rates at the moment.
Interesting snippet: wife was speaking to Marianne Faithfull yesterday, who is making slow but steady recovery after having the virus. But everybody else in the hospital (one of the larger London ones) who was admitted on the day she was has died.
She is the sole survivor.
Wild horses wouldn't kill Marianne.
Once Keef has laid hands upon you, you are indestructible.
When the lockdown started I knew I was a likely victim of Covid 19 - 76 year old male, hypertension, living alone. Made a will a few years ago but realised there was nobody left alive who had known me all those years. So I started to write my memoirs - or rather A Memoir. It proved to be extremely interesting in the sense of what I could remember and what I could not. I never kept a diary. Some of my public life was on the record but not the private side. I have now finished the work although it can be added to when another memory occurs. But the best bit is I am still here - and no symptoms.
He’s probably right isn’t he? What difference would it really make? There’s nearly 70m of us.
It means that the country will be continually reinfected.
Who are these 15,000 people a week? We know there is a steady stream of returning nationals - but who else? Hard to see why we are having anyone arrive at the moment.
You can be sure that the government doesn't know and doesn't care.
We should at the very least introduce a visa system for everyone entering the UK. On the fruit pickers, I expect the labour could have been found domestically.
Strange, that. I thought there'd be hoards of Brexiteers clamouring for the chance to take over from the Romanians.
I imagine it's the employers. No job is so easy that you don't need to learn how to do it. Do you make one phone call to a known contact with 150 experienced pickers on his books or try to recruit and train 150 novices?
The Covid-19 mortality rate in Germany, which had drawn a lot of attention in the early phase of the pandemic, has meanwhile increased to 2.9%.
That suggests that the early anomaly whereby Germany seemed to have an extremely low mortality rate compared with other countries was a reflection of earlier testing rather than a real difference in outcomes.
Furthermore, I can't remember the exact stat, but in the early weeks of this, the average age of those found to be infected in Germany was ~20 years younger than places like Italy.
They are still doing really well (although another 300 death day reported today), but the initial outbreak was definitely concentrated among younger people.
Then their quick testing probably helped stop an Italy situation, where it seems youngsters went for their weekend meal with nonna, and gave it to them.
Their Mortality rate of 2.9% compares with ours of 13.3%.
Not mortality rate, Case Fatality Rate. Nobody knows the true mortality rates at the moment.
Social Distancing and Stay Home Save Lives seems not to be as important as we are being told it is ... time for some hard questions in the press coverage.
And Amanda 'it's all due to 5G' Holden of all people.
Dear me, there is no end to the thirst of these self aggrandising celebs. She was positing crap on twitter a day or so ago taking the bin out and mowing the lawn in a ball gown.
Those that are excellent, are (generally) sought after.
Those that aren't, (generally) end up in the schools that don't have a choice.
Not sure it works very efficiently as you think. You can't really 'seek after' a good individual teacher. And there are many frictions that make teachers stay where they are, or move for reasons other the opportunity to teach the richest kids.
Also, needless to say, the situation you describe does not lend itself to good outcomes for even above-median kids.
Mrs B's school (league table-topping private girls school) is finding it hard to even get applicants for some posts and they pay well above average. Meanwhile one of my neighbours chooses to teach in a sink school out of quite an interesting sense of moral duty.
Oh, it's completely inefficient and ridiculously hap-hazard.
But I have witnessed a Head Teacher using all kinds of tugging-the-grapevine stuff to find out if applicant X is good or not.
Social Distancing and Stay Home Save Lives seems not to be as important as we are being told it is ... time for some hard questions in the press coverage.
And Amanda 'it's all due to 5G' Holden of all people.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
The thing that depressed me about the Peston tweet was the responses to it ... a small minority of people, mostly doctors, pointing out that it all sounded pretty sensible - not just because of the services a field hospital could be expected to provide, but also the fact you don't want to be shuttling around very sick patients between hospitals - but the vast majority seemed convinced that either the criteria had been set impossibly high to keep the Nightingales largely empty and artificially bump up their apparent success rate (because the Nightingales are all a useless feel-good propaganda conspiracy to hide failings elsewhere and, according to some, to shovel money towards mysterious Abu Dhabi-based Tory donors) or alternatively the Nightingales are a set of death camps constructed to enforce the Tory genocide and everyone sent there is going to die (I'm not sure these respondents had read or understand the criteria).
There didn't even seem to be anybody making the prattish-but-not-entirely-loopy argument that the excess capacity was a waste of money. There was the odd SNP booster proudly proclaiming that Scotland wasn't making the same mistakes as the Westminster government, and Nicola had ensured that the Glasgow version wouldn't just be a COVID-focused field hospital but instead a fully-functional full-blown hospital with all specialist departments and kit necessary to treat anyone with any condition...
For those who aren't aware of her, Lesley Riddoch (not sure why she isn't blue-ticked on Twitter) is a fairly well-known journalist-with-Opinions and these days a bit of a small-scale think-tanker. Her response to Peston was one of the saner ones.
On the other hand the responses to Lesley mostly seem to be pointing out what was said here.
Had a look and you're right, thank goodness, that's a much better balance even though there still seem to be nutters from both the "they're thinly disguised death camps" and "they're there to fake the figures" camps!
The quality of debate on PB is many times better than on Twitter (what parts I've seen of it anyway). And sadly tends to be rather in advance of the news coverage too...
They may just have been PR but imagine if we needed them and they weren't there.
My comment was not meant as negatively as it perhaps came over. The PR aspect of the Nightingale(s) is real and important. High visibility achievement. Big morale boost. And it's an insurance policy. If it's barely used it does not follow that it was not needed.
However, there is a (serious and informed) view that the resources could have been better used, and that it is atm tying up resource that would be better employed elsewhere. And it is not common knowledge that only a very few patients meet the criteria to be treated there.
So, bottom line, I do not think all of this tetchy impatience and exasperation with the likes of Peston challenging government spin (and much of the government comms IS spin remember) on the grounds of "oh for god's sake, it's a crisis, they are doing their level best, let them get on with it" is such a brilliant thing.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
I would love to see the media reaction to the UK government following this policy. We would be inundated with stories of single mothers being "dragged from their kids" etc.
They already pushing the narrative of it impossible for people to manage to stick to the UK's fairly easy lockdown (compared to most other countries), let alone the Chinese you must stay in your one bedroom apartment and the government will tell you when you can come out for your 15 mins exercise via loudspeakers on street corners.
The Covid-19 mortality rate in Germany, which had drawn a lot of attention in the early phase of the pandemic, has meanwhile increased to 2.9%.
That suggests that the early anomaly whereby Germany seemed to have an extremely low mortality rate compared with other countries was a reflection of earlier testing rather than a real difference in outcomes.
Furthermore, I can't remember the exact stat, but in the early weeks of this, the average age of those found to be infected in Germany was ~20 years younger than places like Italy.
They are still doing really well (although another 300 death day reported today), but the initial outbreak was definitely concentrated among younger people.
Then their quick testing probably helped stop an Italy situation, where it seems youngsters went for their weekend meal with nonna, and gave it to them.
Their Mortality rate of 2.9% compares with ours of 13.3%.
Not mortality rate, Case Fatality Rate. Nobody knows the true mortality rates at the moment.
I was pondering what long-term changes the virus will have on people. Quite significant for many I predict.
Personally I have 3 already.
Done with flying. Future holidays will be by car to Europe
Done with meat. The pictures from the Chinese markets gave me the final push into something I was drifting towards.
Done with football. Season ticket and Sky sport cancelled.
Maybe the first will apply to a lot of people. I’d say the biggest difference will be a move towards social distancing stand offishness, and less packed, more expensive pubs/restaurants
God I know loads of young people who are heading abroad for holidays at the earliest opportunity. Me too.
Why do they need to go abroad in particular?
I'll still be going abroad quite a lot, just not by plane
The thing that depressed me about the Peston tweet was the responses to it ... a small minority of people, mostly doctors, pointing out that it all sounded pretty sensible - not just because of the services a field hospital could be expected to provide, but also the fact you don't want to be shuttling around very sick patients between hospitals - but the vast majority seemed convinced that either the criteria had been set impossibly high to keep the Nightingales largely empty and artificially bump up their apparent success rate (because the Nightingales are all a useless feel-good propaganda conspiracy to hide failings elsewhere and, according to some, to shovel money towards mysterious Abu Dhabi-based Tory donors) or alternatively the Nightingales are a set of death camps constructed to enforce the Tory genocide and everyone sent there is going to die (I'm not sure these respondents had read or understand the criteria).
There didn't even seem to be anybody making the prattish-but-not-entirely-loopy argument that the excess capacity was a waste of money. There was the odd SNP booster proudly proclaiming that Scotland wasn't making the same mistakes as the Westminster government, and Nicola had ensured that the Glasgow version wouldn't just be a COVID-focused field hospital but instead a fully-functional full-blown hospital with all specialist departments and kit necessary to treat anyone with any condition...
For those who aren't aware of her, Lesley Riddoch (not sure why she isn't blue-ticked on Twitter) is a fairly well-known journalist-with-Opinions and these days a bit of a small-scale think-tanker. Her response to Peston was one of the saner ones.
On the other hand the responses to Lesley mostly seem to be pointing out what was said here.
Had a look and you're right, thank goodness, that's a much better balance even though there still seem to be nutters from both the "they're thinly disguised death camps" and "they're there to fake the figures" camps!
The quality of debate on PB is many times better than on Twitter (what parts I've seen of it anyway). And sadly tends to be rather in advance of the news coverage too...
Being in advance of the news coverage is what you would want for people making bets!
The Covid-19 mortality rate in Germany, which had drawn a lot of attention in the early phase of the pandemic, has meanwhile increased to 2.9%.
That suggests that the early anomaly whereby Germany seemed to have an extremely low mortality rate compared with other countries was a reflection of earlier testing rather than a real difference in outcomes.
Furthermore, I can't remember the exact stat, but in the early weeks of this, the average age of those found to be infected in Germany was ~20 years younger than places like Italy.
They are still doing really well (although another 300 death day reported today), but the initial outbreak was definitely concentrated among younger people.
Then their quick testing probably helped stop an Italy situation, where it seems youngsters went for their weekend meal with nonna, and gave it to them.
Their Mortality rate of 2.9% compares with ours of 13.3%.
Not mortality rate, Case Fatality Rate. Nobody knows the true mortality rates at the moment.
We know the mortality rate per million population and ours is 4 times higher than theirs
No we don't.
Well i think we do. You arguing the ones on worldometers are understated i presume but why would Germany compared yo us be more understated?
We really don't. Watch the video. We won't comparable mortality rates until we have antibody testing and conducted nationwide surveys.
Ive watched it now but whichever of the 3 ways you measure it Germany has currently and will end up with a much lower mortality rate than us.
Probably. But the numbers you are quoting aren't mortality rate. The reasons for it will also be complicated. Better hospitals, sure, but Northern Italy had some of the best hospitals in Europe. As there is no known effective treatment, it doesn't appear to be making that much difference if you are get to the seriously ill.
If Germany have developed a better practice than Italy, Spain, France, UK and US, good on them. But they are seeing 300 a day die, so it suggests even their excellent healthcare system can't do that much once you get to that stage.
But looks like ethnicity could be a factor, as does air pollution, diet, weight, age, other underlying comorbidities. Every country has different make-up of these.
It seems the South Asian community, which is very large in the UK, is particularly susceptible. Genetically much more likely to have issues with diabetes and heart disease, even before considering issues with weight and diet.
I am sure the US are suffering really badly because of the weight and diet issue.
The quality of debate on PB is many times better than on Twitter (what parts I've seen of it anyway). And sadly tends to be rather in advance of the news coverage too...
Not "sadly", it's the USP. You can make good money betting from info and insight on here. The key skill is intuiting who to listen to and who to ignore. And in the former camp I don't just mean those who call a lot of things right. Even more useful are those who call everything wrong, thus pointing you to what is almost bound to happen. They are gold dust. No names, no pack drill.
They may just have been PR but imagine if we needed them and they weren't there.
My comment was not meant as negatively as it perhaps came over. The PR aspect of the Nightingale(s) is real and important. High visibility achievement. Big morale boost. And it's an insurance policy. If it's barely used it does not follow that it was not needed.
However, there is a (serious and informed) view that the resources could have been better used, and that it is atm tying up resource that would be better employed elsewhere. And it is not common knowledge that only a very few patients meet the criteria to be treated there.
So, bottom line, I do not think all of this tetchy impatience and exasperation with the likes of Peston challenging government spin (and much of the government comms IS spin remember) on the grounds of "oh for god's sake, it's a crisis, they are doing their level best, let them get on with it" is such a brilliant thing.
"If it's barely used it does not follow that it was not needed ... However, there is a (serious and informed) view that the resources could have been better used..."
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Social Distancing and Stay Home Save Lives seems not to be as important as we are being told it is ... time for some hard questions in the press coverage.
And Amanda 'it's all due to 5G' Holden of all people.
He’s probably right isn’t he? What difference would it really make? There’s nearly 70m of us.
It means that the country will be continually reinfected.
Who are these 15,000 people a week? We know there is a steady stream of returning nationals - but who else? Hard to see why we are having anyone arrive at the moment.
You can be sure that the government doesn't know and doesn't care.
We should at the very least introduce a visa system for everyone entering the UK. On the fruit pickers, I expect the labour could have been found domestically.
Do you really mean the UK or are you using it to mean GB?
They may just have been PR but imagine if we needed them and they weren't there.
My comment was not meant as negatively as it perhaps came over. The PR aspect of the Nightingale(s) is real and important. High visibility achievement. Big morale boost. And it's an insurance policy. If it's barely used it does not follow that it was not needed.
However, there is a (serious and informed) view that the resources could have been better used, and that it is atm tying up resource that would be better employed elsewhere. And it is not common knowledge that only a very few patients meet the criteria to be treated there.
So, bottom line, I do not think all of this tetchy impatience and exasperation with the likes of Peston challenging government spin (and much of the government comms IS spin remember) on the grounds of "oh for god's sake, it's a crisis, they are doing their level best, let them get on with it" is such a brilliant thing.
Have a look at how the Spanish Flu was combatted in the second wave and I think the role of the Nightingales becomes clearer.
As long as it's for the 'good' papers like themselves not the evviiiiilllll papers like the Sun and Mail.
Bit like the idea that non-personal donations to political parties should be banned. Apart from the Trade Unions.
I liked the reaction I got, when I suggested I was fine with the Trade Union exception - as the future founder of the Amalgamated Union of Hedge Fund Owners.
I've been bemused by our lax attitude to people arriving into the UK from the very start. All those people flying back from their Italian ski trips telling us that the only advice they got (if they got any at all) was isolate if you get any symptoms.
If the UK does end up with the worst record in Europe (as the WHO seems to be suggesting) then some of our actions are going o look very stupid indeed.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
They’re not going down the pub during those 14 days, are they?
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Wow after what has transpired, if you believe anything the Chinese government says you must be pretty gullible.
The quality of debate on PB is many times better than on Twitter (what parts I've seen of it anyway). And sadly tends to be rather in advance of the news coverage too...
Not "sadly", it's the USP. You can make good money betting from info and insight on here. The key skill is intuiting who to listen to and who to ignore. And in the former camp I don't just mean those who call a lot of things right. Even more useful are those who call everything wrong, thus pointing you to what is almost bound to happen. They are gold dust. No names, no pack drill.
Hmm... I'm rather less convinced of the wisdom of the hivemind of this website. No one gets it wrong all the time either I think.
What is very valuable is that some posters pick up quirks or eccentricities of the market which can be obviously profitable.
A roll call of fame for some great tips would be a lovely thread header if someone fancies doing it!
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
A windfall tax won't help newspapers become sustainable.
Leaving aside the abhorrence of windfall taxes, they bring income in a one-off way.
Sustainability means something that can be maintained for years. Pretending a one-off tax take can be used for long term spending is daft.
We also need to consider why the brute force of state taxation should be used to supply funds to private enterprise.
Newspapers seem ridiculously expensive to me now. I enjoy reading them and can comfortably afford them but paying £2 for a daily paper seems extraodinary when I can get the metro or standard for free plus news whenever I want it online or on tv.
The best teachers are mostly born not made I suspect, although it is also very hard work.
It is a set of skills, and like any skillset it is possible to train and develop them. There's a mentality required, sure, but I think the idea that teachers are 'born' is naive and genuinely damaging.
As long as it's for the 'good' papers like themselves not the evviiiiilllll papers like the Sun and Mail.
Bit like the idea that non-personal donations to political parties should be banned. Apart from the Trade Unions.
I liked the reaction I got, when I suggested I was fine with the Trade Union exception - as the future founder of the Amalgamated Union of Hedge Fund Owners.
Mr. Divvie, any chance the SPL will be played behind closed doors?
I doubt it, apart from anything else the SPFL is not noted for 'brave' decisions. Much of Scottish football depends so much on gate receipts (compared to tv money), there may not be any iobvious advantages in going down that route.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Wow after what has transpired, if you believe anything the Chinese government says you must be pretty gullible.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
you have precisely zero idea of what really goes on in China because you aren't there and the totalitarian government restricts news, disappears whistleblowers and lies through its teeth.
I was pondering what long-term changes the virus will have on people. Quite significant for many I predict.
Personally I have 3 already.
Done with flying. Future holidays will be by car to Europe
Done with meat. The pictures from the Chinese markets gave me the final push into something I was drifting towards.
Done with football. Season ticket and Sky sport cancelled.
Third one seems a bit extreme.....
I have been headed that way or awhile, the endemic corruption in FIFA and Uefa and the unbelievable greed and excess of the players. Listening to them all during the crisis has just made me rthink why do I bother. Listening to them banging on you would think that finishing the PL season was the major issue facing the nation.
"If it's barely used it does not follow that it was not needed ... However, there is a (serious and informed) view that the resources could have been better used..."
As long as it's for the 'good' papers like themselves not the evviiiiilllll papers like the Sun and Mail.
Bit like the idea that non-personal donations to political parties should be banned. Apart from the Trade Unions.
I liked the reaction I got, when I suggested I was fine with the Trade Union exception - as the future founder of the Amalgamated Union of Hedge Fund Owners.
I've been bemused by our lax attitude to people arriving into the UK from the very start. All those people flying back from their Italian ski trips telling us that the only advice they got (if they got any at all) was isolate if you get any symptoms.
If the UK does end up with the worst record in Europe (as the WHO seems to be suggesting) then some of our actions are going o look very stupid indeed.
Ultimately the government has decided that extra deaths are a price worth paying not to restrict foreign travel.
Now whether that's because the government thinks the economic hit from restricting travel would be too great and/or the political hit from restricting travel (ie stopping people from having their holidays) would be too great and/or the personal hit (politicians and Sir Humphreys are frequent travellers) would be too great I don't know.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Wow after what has transpired, if you believe anything the Chinese government says you must be pretty gullible.
A nutter writes ...
Its always insults when you are bested isn't it? pejorative terms for people with learning difficulties.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
you have precisely zero idea of what really goes on in China because you aren't there and the totalitarian government restricts news, disappears whistleblowers and lies through its teeth.
Try to resist the Pavlovian reaction, even if you do have a monomania about Chinese conspirators.
Just think about it. Is it a good idea for people with symptoms to be tested and/or adequately isolated? Or not?
Warning: if your brain starts hurting, stop trying to think.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Wow after what has transpired, if you believe anything the Chinese government says you must be pretty gullible.
A nutter writes ...
Its always insults when you are bested isn't it? pejorative terms for people with learning difficulties.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
You can believe the Chinese government if you want to, and cite their "achievements" accordingly. I prefer not to believe a word of it.
Today's "revision" to the Chinese death figures and the apparent chaos regarding Spain's numbers suggest to me that comparing the performance of different countries, and trying to determine the best policy responses from such comparison is somewhat risky.
Not that this will prevent those who are desperate to rubbish our government's response to the virus from trying.
Still listen to Broken English, great album. Unfortunately can't see anything on the track list that readily lends itself to punning.
Yes, I've heard some really good songs by her. And many would say being being a muse to a great creator is in itself something elevated. Although I'm not convinced about this. How come muses are almost always young and female and devastatingly sexy and the "musee" male and 30 years older? What's the deal there?
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
You can believe the Chinese government if you want to, and cite their "achievements" accordingly. I prefer not to believe a word of it.
Today's "revision" to the Chinese death figures and the apparent chaos regarding Spain's numbers suggest to me that comparing the performance of different countries, and trying to determine the best policy responses from such comparison is somewhat risky.
Not that this will prevent those who are desperate to rubbish our government's response to the virus from trying.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
He’s probably right isn’t he? What difference would it really make? There’s nearly 70m of us.
It means that the country will be continually reinfected.
Who are these 15,000 people a week? We know there is a steady stream of returning nationals - but who else? Hard to see why we are having anyone arrive at the moment.
You can be sure that the government doesn't know and doesn't care.
We should at the very least introduce a visa system for everyone entering the UK. On the fruit pickers, I expect the labour could have been found domestically.
Strange, that. I thought there'd be hoards of Brexiteers clamouring for the chance to take over from the Romanians.
I imagine it's the employers. No job is so easy that you don't need to learn how to do it. Do you make one phone call to a known contact with 150 experienced pickers on his books or try to recruit and train 150 novices?
The way it was reported on the TV was that the Romanians were going to train the British pickers, though whether that's true or not I'm a little dubious. (The Romanian economy has come on a long way in the last ten years; if they are educated and speak fluent English there are likely better jobs for them back home, though maybe not in today's circumstances!)
I used to live in an agricultural area with a lot of vegetable and fruit-picking work. The job agencies would advertise for postings with specific languages, so pickers who had moved to town would join a Polish / Lithuanian / Romanian-speaking gang. A hired minibus would then pick them up early in the morning and take them out to the farms. There'd also be seasonal workers living on caravans or similar on site who'd been hired by agencies abroad and came over usually by long-distance coach (cheaper than a plane ticket). I wouldn't envy the work, but it had become essentially impossible for locals to do the job even if they wanted to. The East Europeans living on farm-provided accommodation were on paltry wages after the "deductions" were taken into account and life in the shoddy housing apparently (I've heard some horrid first-hand accounts) had very some dark undercurrents around intoxication, violence and sexual coercion; those I knew who'd moved to town were very keen to move into other sectors that have fairly rough pay and conditions (factory work with night-shifts, care-work, contract cleaning) and viewed agricultural work as either a way to get started or a last-ditch fall-back if other plans failed.
I'm hoping, probably in vain, that things have improved since then. At the time I reckoned that if you paid these people properly and imposed strict legal compliance on their working and living conditions, it might just no longer be a competitive industry for the UK (at least in the absence of an automation solution) and would probably end up going the way of the last few textile sweatshops that minimum wage prosecutions were putting the kibosh on at the time.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
You can believe the Chinese government if you want to, and cite their "achievements" accordingly. I prefer not to believe a word of it.
Today's "revision" to the Chinese death figures and the apparent chaos regarding Spain's numbers suggest to me that comparing the performance of different countries, and trying to determine the best policy responses from such comparison is somewhat risky.
Not that this will prevent those who are desperate to rubbish our government's response to the virus from trying.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
You need a lie down, or perhaps to add a little more water to it.
Mr. Divvie, any chance the SPL will be played behind closed doors?
I doubt it, apart from anything else the SPFL is not noted for 'brave' decisions. Much of Scottish football depends so much on gate receipts (compared to tv money), there may not be any iobvious advantages in going down that route.
lot of the clubs have a scheme where they broadcast live games via the internet to overseas fans. ie) DEETV for dundee.
It wouldn't take a lot of work to strip out the overseas filter and broadcast games for a couple of quid a head to folk in the UK.
need signoff from SKY/BT Sport/whoever holds the rights but i cant imagine they'd be too worried about teams broadcasting Dundee V Arbroath.
Those that are excellent, are (generally) sought after.
Those that aren't, (generally) end up in the schools that don't have a choice.
Not sure it works very efficiently as you think. You can't really 'seek after' a good individual teacher. And there are many frictions that make teachers stay where they are, or move for reasons other the opportunity to teach the richest kids.
Also, needless to say, the situation you describe does not lend itself to good outcomes for even above-median kids.
Mrs B's school (league table-topping private girls school) is finding it hard to even get applicants for some posts and they pay well above average. Meanwhile one of my neighbours chooses to teach in a sink school out of quite an interesting sense of moral duty.
Oh, it's completely inefficient and ridiculously hap-hazard.
But I have witnessed a Head Teacher using all kinds of tugging-the-grapevine stuff to find out if applicant X is good or not.
There is also the question of what "good" means? Riot control or motivation? Stretching the top set or getting as many as possible average pupils through? There was an interview somewhere with David Cameron musing on whether Eton was becoming an academic hothouse at the expense of rich clots, but whether it is or isn't, we might suspect that demands on teachers will be different in each case. For boarding schools, where students are onsite and awake for triple the time, can a new teacher run extra-curricular activities? Is there a star name? A chap in the betting shop chose his son's public school because the cricket coach was a recently retired Test player. Shades of moosehead professors at American universities!
And even if you can agree on what you are looking for, can you judge these qualities? We've heard a lot about test reliability recently with regard to the pandemic, and interviews are notoriously unreliable. Even supposing you get any applicants at all, as @edb has mentioned.
So why do we need to be locked down minister? If tipping more virus into the mix doesn't make a difference then neither would domestic UK people...
I know, its stupid. But he said it.
He is basing his response and the policy on what the medical professionals have advised the Government to do.
So flying into the UK from any old hot spot followed by no formal requirement, just advice, for 14 days of quarantine restrictions for that incomer is based on the advice from medical professionals? OK then, carry on!
Just like coming out of self-isolation after just a week, and carrying on going outdoors for exercise during "isolation".
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
Not a good day to be citing what the Chinese know as part of your argument.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
You can believe the Chinese government if you want to, and cite their "achievements" accordingly. I prefer not to believe a word of it.
Today's "revision" to the Chinese death figures and the apparent chaos regarding Spain's numbers suggest to me that comparing the performance of different countries, and trying to determine the best policy responses from such comparison is somewhat risky.
Not that this will prevent those who are desperate to rubbish our government's response to the virus from trying.
Oh what a devastatingly clever refutation of the proposition that people who are infected should be adequately isolated.
You need a lie down, or perhaps to add a little more water to it.
He’s probably right isn’t he? What difference would it really make? There’s nearly 70m of us.
It means that the country will be continually reinfected.
Who are these 15,000 people a week? We know there is a steady stream of returning nationals - but who else? Hard to see why we are having anyone arrive at the moment.
You can be sure that the government doesn't know and doesn't care.
We should at the very least introduce a visa system for everyone entering the UK. On the fruit pickers, I expect the labour could have been found domestically.
Strange, that. I thought there'd be hoards of Brexiteers clamouring for the chance to take over from the Romanians.
I imagine it's the employers. No job is so easy that you don't need to learn how to do it. Do you make one phone call to a known contact with 150 experienced pickers on his books or try to recruit and train 150 novices?
The way it was reported on the TV was that the Romanians were going to train the British pickers, though whether that's true or not I'm a little dubious. (The Romanian economy has come on a long way in the last ten years; if they are educated and speak fluent English there are likely better jobs for them back home, though maybe not in today's circumstances!)
I used to live in an agricultural area with a lot of vegetable and fruit-picking work. The job agencies would advertise for postings with specific languages, so pickers who had moved to town would join a Polish / Lithuanian / Romanian-speaking gang. A hired minibus would then pick them up early in the morning and take them out to the farms. There'd also be seasonal workers living on caravans or similar on site who'd been hired by agencies abroad and came over usually by long-distance coach (cheaper than a plane ticket). I wouldn't envy the work, but it had become essentially impossible for locals to do the job even if they wanted to. The East Europeans living on farm-provided accommodation were on paltry wages after the "deductions" were taken into account and life in the shoddy housing apparently (I've heard some horrid first-hand accounts) had very some dark undercurrents around intoxication, violence and sexual coercion; those I knew who'd moved to town were very keen to move into other sectors that have fairly rough pay and conditions (factory work with night-shifts, care-work, contract cleaning) and viewed agricultural work as either a way to get started or a last-ditch fall-back if other plans failed.
I'm hoping, probably in vain, that things have improved since then. At the time I reckoned that if you paid these people properly and imposed strict legal compliance on their working and living conditions, it might just no longer be a competitive industry for the UK (at least in the absence of an automation solution) and would probably end up going the way of the last few textile sweatshops that minimum wage prosecutions were putting the kibosh on at the time.
Indeed, its a toleration of expolitation.
The 'accommodation' and minibuses provided are likely to be perfect breeding grounds for covid infection as well.
Still listen to Broken English, great album. Unfortunately can't see anything on the track list that readily lends itself to punning.
Yes, I've heard some really good songs by her. And many would say being being a muse to a great creator is in itself something elevated. Although I'm not convinced about this. How come muses are almost always young and female and devastatingly sexy and the "musee" male and 30 years older? What's the deal there?
Yep, there is something vampiric about it. In the case of Sir Mick, the quality of muses must have gone down the pan a bit, he & Keef haven't produced a banger for going on 40 years (though they have a great heap of laurel strewn bangers to rest upon I will happily admit).
They may just have been PR but imagine if we needed them and they weren't there.
My comment was not meant as negatively as it perhaps came over. The PR aspect of the Nightingale(s) is real and important. High visibility achievement. Big morale boost. And it's an insurance policy. If it's barely used it does not follow that it was not needed.
However, there is a (serious and informed) view that the resources could have been better used, and that it is atm tying up resource that would be better employed elsewhere. And it is not common knowledge that only a very few patients meet the criteria to be treated there.
So, bottom line, I do not think all of this tetchy impatience and exasperation with the likes of Peston challenging government spin (and much of the government comms IS spin remember) on the grounds of "oh for god's sake, it's a crisis, they are doing their level best, let them get on with it" is such a brilliant thing.
Have a look at how the Spanish Flu was combatted in the second wave and I think the role of the Nightingales becomes clearer.
Do you have a link for this, or a short explanation? My attempt to Google it the last time I saw you mention it failed to find the answer.
A windfall tax won't help newspapers become sustainable.
Leaving aside the abhorrence of windfall taxes, they bring income in a one-off way.
Sustainability means something that can be maintained for years. Pretending a one-off tax take can be used for long term spending is daft.
We also need to consider why the brute force of state taxation should be used to supply funds to private enterprise.
Newspapers seem ridiculously expensive to me now. I enjoy reading them and can comfortably afford them but paying £2 for a daily paper seems extraodinary when I can get the metro or standard for free plus news whenever I want it online or on tv.
At 50p Id start to be interested again.
50 years ago there was no internet and no 24 hour news and only 3 channels on the TV.
Newspapers were the main source of news for most people and had a mass readership so could afford to price themselves cheaply and still make a profit.
Now newspapers if they want to make a profit have to price their papers much more highly to make a profit from a much smaller readership, especially if they are broadsheets which will not be funded completely by advertisers for cheap, populist fare that attracts more readers but want to stick to higher quality articles which their select readership will pay more for
Anyway - does anyone have any idea why the NHS staff in those pictures from last night weren't making any effort at social distancing from one another - despite probably being in the highest risk group for COVID-19 infection?
Is it something they're told not to bother with, or what?
Those that are excellent, are (generally) sought after.
Those that aren't, (generally) end up in the schools that don't have a choice.
Not sure it works very efficiently as you think. You can't really 'seek after' a good individual teacher. And there are many frictions that make teachers stay where they are, or move for reasons other the opportunity to teach the richest kids.
Also, needless to say, the situation you describe does not lend itself to good outcomes for even above-median kids.
Mrs B's school (league table-topping private girls school) is finding it hard to even get applicants for some posts and they pay well above average. Meanwhile one of my neighbours chooses to teach in a sink school out of quite an interesting sense of moral duty.
Oh, it's completely inefficient and ridiculously hap-hazard.
But I have witnessed a Head Teacher using all kinds of tugging-the-grapevine stuff to find out if applicant X is good or not.
There is also the question of what "good" means? Riot control or motivation? Stretching the top set or getting as many as possible average pupils through? There was an interview somewhere with David Cameron musing on whether Eton was becoming an academic hothouse at the expense of rich clots, but whether it is or isn't, we might suspect that demands on teachers will be different in each case. For boarding schools, where students are onsite and awake for triple the time, can a new teacher run extra-curricular activities? Is there a star name? A chap in the betting shop chose his son's public school because the cricket coach was a recently retired Test player. Shades of moosehead professors at American universities!
And even if you can agree on what you are looking for, can you judge these qualities? We've heard a lot about test reliability recently with regard to the pandemic, and interviews are notoriously unreliable. Even supposing you get any applicants at all, as @edb has mentioned.
I agree completely - the current situation seems to be a denial of differences in ability between teachers and then trying to fix the problem by all kinds of back channel actions.
In the case of teachers that did pass their probation - at one couldn't keep order in a class. The other was simply not good at getting the children to learn. Their replacements - teaching exactly the same children - did manage to do both.
In other words, the human reaction to a system that doesn't work - go around it.
I'm impressed. To be honest I am almost the exact opposite. I am finding concentration very difficult and don't even get on with the work I have to do. My productivity isn't even a quarter of what it is in normal times. I am spending a lot of time walking and running but find I don't even have the concentration span for books. I fear it is indicative of depression. I am finding I am spending a lot of time on PB, probably too much to be honest, but it is a comfort. I really cannot wait for this to be over but the financial implications will be with me for a long time.
A few years ago I got heavily into a Japanese author called Haruki Murakami. When I sink into one of his strange yet oddly tranquil and life affirming novels I leave this world behind for as long as it takes. His masterpiece is The Wind Up Bird Chronicle.
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
No Deal Brexit, 31 December 2020.
I guess it is possible the parliamentary party might fracture, though Covid-19 makes it less likely because it provides political cover for all the spending and investment Boris planned anyway. Without that cover, it was possible backbenchers might eventually have wondered why the state was running trains and broadband, and what exactly happened to the former Chancellors and other ministers Boris had purged from the Commons while everyone was distracted by tales of Jeremy Corbyn's Stalinist cabal deselecting Labour MPs (which almost never happened iirc) and who made #ClassicDom god anyway?
So Boris is probably safe but if he were replaced, it is possible his successor might seek an early election. The last two did: Theresa May and Boris himself.
I realise I'm casting pearls before swine, but if you've followed my tips so far you'll have been treated to a superb Lucia di Lammermoor starring Anna Netrebko and an especially good Mariusz Kwiecien, a magnificent Il Barbiere di Siviglia with Joyce DiDinato, a magisterial Macbeth with Anna Netrebko absolutely nailing the part of Lady Macbeth, and a fantastic Don Pasquale again with Anna Netrebko outstanding in a very different role. All those from the Met's daily free streaming. Also on the list has been Garsington's Il Nozze di Figaro, available anytime and a beautifully intelligent production with some lovely performances by less well-known singers.
Today's gem (available until 10.30pm this evening UK time) is again from the Met, and should be a real hoot. It is Rossini's Comte Ory, a comic opera which doesn't take itself too seriously but is great escapist fun. Again a stellar cast: Juan Diego Flórez, Diana Damrau, and Joyce DiDonato.
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
" a new paper by Mikko Paunio, a Finnish epidemiologist and key scientific advisor to the Finish Government, estimates that the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus roughly as dangerous as seasonal flu. Paunio submitted an earlier version of this paper to a MedRxiv prepublication site, as well as PLOS Medicine, but both rejected it. Consequently, I’ve decided to publish it on this site. If any epidemiologists want to challenge Paunio’s conclusions, feel free to do so in the comments."
Betting post - you can lay the date of the next election being in 2021 at 9.8. Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
Even when Johnson is inevitably brought down by a scandal he can't lie his way out of and the tories change leader; that won't be enough to trigger a GE. It would have to be something that would cause 40+ tories to vote against the government in a VoC. Given that your average tory MP has the integrity of a jackal it's hard to imagine what that something would be.
Comments
And while I do still get a paper, there is hardly any news worth reading at the moment so I can see why people aren't that bothered.
As Alastair M. suggests, if you're at the point where you think that you may be depressed rather than feeling justifiably gloomy because the world is going to hell in a handcart, in my experience that might be the time to speak to a professional.
At least thats I get the only time I actually look at a newspaper which is at the barbers these days,.
The virus is preferable to these people.
But I have witnessed a Head Teacher using all kinds of tugging-the-grapevine stuff to find out if applicant X is good or not.
The Chinese carried on testing, and put everyone positive into hospital until they tested negative. But the Chinese, eh? What do they know, compared with us?
https://tinyurl.com/yajqvpew
The quality of debate on PB is many times better than on Twitter (what parts I've seen of it anyway). And sadly tends to be rather in advance of the news coverage too...
However, there is a (serious and informed) view that the resources could have been better used, and that it is atm tying up resource that would be better employed elsewhere. And it is not common knowledge that only a very few patients meet the criteria to be treated there.
So, bottom line, I do not think all of this tetchy impatience and exasperation with the likes of Peston challenging government spin (and much of the government comms IS spin remember) on the grounds of "oh for god's sake, it's a crisis, they are doing their level best, let them get on with it" is such a brilliant thing.
They already pushing the narrative of it impossible for people to manage to stick to the UK's fairly easy lockdown (compared to most other countries), let alone the Chinese you must stay in your one bedroom apartment and the government will tell you when you can come out for your 15 mins exercise via loudspeakers on street corners.
--AS
If Germany have developed a better practice than Italy, Spain, France, UK and US, good on them. But they are seeing 300 a day die, so it suggests even their excellent healthcare system can't do that much once you get to that stage.
But looks like ethnicity could be a factor, as does air pollution, diet, weight, age, other underlying comorbidities. Every country has different make-up of these.
It seems the South Asian community, which is very large in the UK, is particularly susceptible. Genetically much more likely to have issues with diabetes and heart disease, even before considering issues with weight and diet.
I am sure the US are suffering really badly because of the weight and diet issue.
wibble wibble wibble
"We are doing our best to make sure they dont but its incredibly challenging"
NB -
I seem to be defining a woman purely in terms of her relationship to a bunch of blokes. Letting myself down badly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY2wQ6aUykk
Leaving aside the abhorrence of windfall taxes, they bring income in a one-off way.
Sustainability means something that can be maintained for years. Pretending a one-off tax take can be used for long term spending is daft.
We also need to consider why the brute force of state taxation should be used to supply funds to private enterprise.
https://twitter.com/_petermason/status/1251097728995807233
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1251099902257573888
I liked the reaction I got, when I suggested I was fine with the Trade Union exception - as the future founder of the Amalgamated Union of Hedge Fund Owners.
I've been bemused by our lax attitude to people arriving into the UK from the very start. All those people flying back from their Italian ski trips telling us that the only advice they got (if they got any at all) was isolate if you get any symptoms.
If the UK does end up with the worst record in Europe (as the WHO seems to be suggesting) then some of our actions are going o look very stupid indeed.
What is very valuable is that some posters pick up quirks or eccentricities of the market which can be obviously profitable.
A roll call of fame for some great tips would be a lovely thread header if someone fancies doing it!
At 50p Id start to be interested again.
(Speaking as someone who teaches HE)
When do we want it? We've already got it!
Much of Scottish football depends so much on gate receipts (compared to tv money), there may not be any iobvious advantages in going down that route.
I have been headed that way or awhile, the endemic corruption in FIFA and Uefa and the unbelievable greed and excess of the players. Listening to them all during the crisis has just made me rthink why do I bother. Listening to them banging on you would think that finishing the PL season was the major issue facing the nation.
Interesting note on gate receipts, though. There'd also be the risk of people congregating outside even if the doors were closed.
{union congress applauds for 27 minutes}
China is both the cause of, and the solution to, everybody's problem. It's like the alcohol of public health.
I presume that tractor production has also reached a new peak in Wuhan?
Now whether that's because the government thinks the economic hit from restricting travel would be too great and/or the political hit from restricting travel (ie stopping people from having their holidays) would be too great and/or the personal hit (politicians and Sir Humphreys are frequent travellers) would be too great I don't know.
Pretty nasty stuff.
Just think about it. Is it a good idea for people with symptoms to be tested and/or adequately isolated? Or not?
Warning: if your brain starts hurting, stop trying to think.
Today's "revision" to the Chinese death figures and the apparent chaos regarding Spain's numbers suggest to me that comparing the performance of different countries, and trying to determine the best policy responses from such comparison is somewhat risky.
Not that this will prevent those who are desperate to rubbish our government's response to the virus from trying.
Can anyone think why we would have an election next year?
Boris has his big majority, it's hard to see why he would want to risk it...
I used to live in an agricultural area with a lot of vegetable and fruit-picking work. The job agencies would advertise for postings with specific languages, so pickers who had moved to town would join a Polish / Lithuanian / Romanian-speaking gang. A hired minibus would then pick them up early in the morning and take them out to the farms. There'd also be seasonal workers living on caravans or similar on site who'd been hired by agencies abroad and came over usually by long-distance coach (cheaper than a plane ticket). I wouldn't envy the work, but it had become essentially impossible for locals to do the job even if they wanted to. The East Europeans living on farm-provided accommodation were on paltry wages after the "deductions" were taken into account and life in the shoddy housing apparently (I've heard some horrid first-hand accounts) had very some dark undercurrents around intoxication, violence and sexual coercion; those I knew who'd moved to town were very keen to move into other sectors that have fairly rough pay and conditions (factory work with night-shifts, care-work, contract cleaning) and viewed agricultural work as either a way to get started or a last-ditch fall-back if other plans failed.
I'm hoping, probably in vain, that things have improved since then. At the time I reckoned that if you paid these people properly and imposed strict legal compliance on their working and living conditions, it might just no longer be a competitive industry for the UK (at least in the absence of an automation solution) and would probably end up going the way of the last few textile sweatshops that minimum wage prosecutions were putting the kibosh on at the time.
It wouldn't take a lot of work to strip out the overseas filter and broadcast games for a couple of quid a head to folk in the UK.
need signoff from SKY/BT Sport/whoever holds the rights but i cant imagine they'd be too worried about teams broadcasting Dundee V Arbroath.
And even if you can agree on what you are looking for, can you judge these qualities? We've heard a lot about test reliability recently with regard to the pandemic, and interviews are notoriously unreliable. Even supposing you get any applicants at all, as @edb has mentioned.
The 'accommodation' and minibuses provided are likely to be perfect breeding grounds for covid infection as well.
Not looking good on the gown front
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/17/uk-coronavirus-live-lockdown-last-three-weeks-dominic-raab-latest-updates
In the case of Sir Mick, the quality of muses must have gone down the pan a bit, he & Keef haven't produced a banger for going on 40 years (though they have a great heap of laurel strewn bangers to rest upon I will happily admit).
Newspapers were the main source of news for most people and had a mass readership so could afford to price themselves cheaply and still make a profit.
Now newspapers if they want to make a profit have to price their papers much more highly to make a profit from a much smaller readership, especially if they are broadsheets which will not be funded completely by advertisers for cheap, populist fare that attracts more readers but want to stick to higher quality articles which their select readership will pay more for
Is it something they're told not to bother with, or what?
In the case of teachers that did pass their probation - at one couldn't keep order in a class. The other was simply not good at getting the children to learn. Their replacements - teaching exactly the same children - did manage to do both.
In other words, the human reaction to a system that doesn't work - go around it.
So Boris is probably safe but if he were replaced, it is possible his successor might seek an early election. The last two did: Theresa May and Boris himself.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/
https://lockdownsceptics.org/mikko-paunio-paper/