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  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited April 2020
    MikeL said:

    Just like Gordon Brown's Euro tests!

    First 4 tests look likely to be met within 3 weeks.

    Test 5 isn't at all clear cut - it will easily be open to interpretation either way.

    Number 4? PPE and tests? At the present rate doesn't look like it's going to be anywhere near. Just this morning the otherwise optimistic Sikora was downbeat as the tests he was trying out from South Korea were not reliable.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Sandpit said:

    Can I be first to argue that the UK health system should be much more like Germany's?

    Everyone opposed to the government’s response should agree. ;)

    https://www.businessinsider.nl/germany-why-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-italy-spain-test-healthcare-2020-3?international=true&r=US

    The levels of investment should be similar.

    They aren't


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Laura Kunnesberg - give us an idea when the restrictions will be eased

    Did she sleep through Raab address.

    You can't ask her to change her questions, in response to answers previously given.

    It would undermine the entire concept of modern journalism.

    It would involve listening. No real journalist could ever do that.
    Even my wife exploded

    'Raab just given you the answer to that, what an idiotic question'
    Your wife is wrong - if a journalist starts acknowledging the answers, that's on the slippery slope to suggesting that the interviewed subject has something to add.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    ukpaul said:

    Vague blather.
    It is the right answer, however. Everything is reliant on these numbers and we won't know when that willbe until those numbers turn up.
    Indeed.

    Which is why the 'plan to leave lockdown' is worthless until the results on the ground improve.

    The limiting factors are new tests, new infections and new deaths not whether there is an official plan or not.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    isam said:

    The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    The problem, in my eyes, to that kind of polling, is that its like asking the British public if they think the 1/2 favourite for Saturdays big race, the horse everyone is talking about on the 24hour news cycle, is a good bet to win at those odds. 91% may say yes, and the minority opposing it, thinking it is actually a lay, will be the professionals/clued up layers and bookies. So being out of sync with public opinion, to me, isn't anything to worry about

    Maybe I see everything in terms of gambling, to my detriment, though
    I am surprised at the unanimity, I'd have thought "Don't know but I hope to fuck someone does" was the right answer.

    I would be value for money if YouGov hired me as a question editor, though. This is another ambiguous one: is the question, Do you yourself think it is the best way of minimising the effects of the virus, or Do you support the decision given that it has the imprimatur of the govt and their boffins?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Laura Kunnesberg - give us an idea when the restrictions will be eased

    Did she sleep through Raab address.

    Just point and laugh.

    "Next question...."
    Like the UW Covid model, the journalist chat bots at the press conference clearly need to be turned off...and replaced with some new ones.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The government tells Britain that what it is doing in working, but the fact they cannot give any date whatsoever for a lock down withdrawal suggests they have very little confidence in the first statement.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Laura K wants a question which will be digestible for the light and fluffy 6pm News.

    She knows the answer before it's given.

    She isn't trying to get genuine new info - she is just trying to supply something for the masses who have no interest in any detail.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    Are the media bosses really watching this crap and thinking yes it’s great, definitely no need to change the approach...?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    What on earth is a paleo - conservative

    For me I am 100% behind the extension as are 91% of the public in this poll
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoconservatism
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    The government tells Britain that what it is doing in working, but the fact they cannot give any date whatsoever for a lock down withdrawal suggests they have very little confidence in the first statement.

    That's because they don't have a magic crystal ball that they can use to see the future.
  • DensparkDenspark Posts: 68
    hospitals bed usage down again today.
    Up slightly in wales and East england , down in the rest of the country.

    London 20% down since the 8th april.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    MikeL said:

    Just like Gordon Brown's Euro tests!

    First 4 tests look likely to be met within 3 weeks.

    Test 5 isn't at all clear cut - it will easily be open to interpretation either way.

    3) is the same as 1) and 2)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    No 5 is a bit tenuous.

    4 seems to be a goal that is always just over the horizon.
    18k tests yesterday
    Also capacity apparently far higher, 35,000.
    So only have to triple capacity and use it at nearly 100% in the next two weeks to reach the government target.
    Well they have already tripled it in the previous two weeks.
    Tests have been pretty static for the last 10 days.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    The problem, in my eyes, to that kind of polling, is that its like asking the British public if they think the 1/2 favourite for Saturdays big race, the horse everyone is talking about on the 24hour news cycle, is a good bet to win at those odds. 91% may say yes, and the minority opposing it, thinking it is actually a lay, will be the professionals/clued up layers and bookies. So being out of sync with public opinion, to me, isn't anything to worry about

    Maybe I see everything in terms of gambling, to my detriment, though
    But it does rather undercut the argument that any moment now the British public's going to revolt against the lockdown (or similar arguments that the government has been constrained by how early they could have started the lockdown or how long they can continue it for before people would just start ignoring it)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    The government tells Britain that what it is doing in working, but the fact they cannot give any date whatsoever for a lock down withdrawal suggests they have very little confidence in the first statement.

    We they could always just give a date 6 months into the future like Germany. Would that make you happy?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    No 5 is a bit tenuous.

    4 seems to be a goal that is always just over the horizon.
    18k tests yesterday
    Also capacity apparently far higher, 35,000.
    So only have to triple capacity and use it at nearly 100% in the next two weeks to reach the government target.
    Well they have already tripled it in the previous two weeks.
    Tests have been pretty static for the last 10 days.
    Sorry, I was referring to capacity.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    I turned off at that point.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    Of course he doesn't, he is an evil uncaring baby eating immigrant hating Tory...or something like that.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    A bit niche, but we interviewed the head of the Oxford Univertsity tech transfer office who will be responsible for rolling out the covid-19 vaccine that was all over everywhere last weekend. It will be avaiable royalty-free, at least until the pandemic is over:
    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/exclusive-new-ip-policy-help-forge-partnerships-potential-uk-covid-19-vaccine
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    By paleo-conservatives, do you mean Toby Young?
    Except its not what he thinks.

    Here he is in his own words on his new website:

    "Although I believe the lockdown needs to be dialled back, I’m not absolutely certain of that and am open to having my mind changed."
    So it... is what he thinks?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Denspark said:

    hospitals bed usage down again today.
    Up slightly in wales and East england , down in the rest of the country.

    London 20% down since the 8th april.

    Has anybody actually moaned yet that they wont be able to have their trade fair "because of that bloody Nightingale Hospital...."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Pagan2 said:

    Ok so inequality in education only matters to you when it is caused by money. Even though the other that you don't want to address is both much bigger and also impacts on the other kids who are trying to learn as children of those parents tend to be disruptive in the classroom and take up teacher time to deal with and make it more difficult for those to learn to do so?

    By the way should someone tell Kinablu we changed thread so he achieves thread equality?

    I'm here.

    It's not that some people being better parents than others doesn't matter, it's just that the solution for this is worse than the problem. Are we going to have kids brought up 24/7 in identikit communes by standardized robots rather than at home by their own flesh & blood? No. Not for me. What we can do, however, is enact measures which will substantially reduce the impact of parental financial means on the formal educational opportunities of children. This is specifically and exclusively what I am arguing for. Of course I can argue other more extreme things but I'm not doing so here. Parents can continue to help their kids in a thousand different ways. But not by purchasing them a ticket for the schooling equivalent of a gilded gated community. And that is it. It's hardly Pol Pot.

    I'm always astonished by the outrage. It says a lot about how entrenched this particular perk of the affluent is. Yet I rarely hear a serious argument overtly in favour of it - that the purchasing of educational privilege is a good thing and should be encouraged. All I tend to hear are either (i) lurid comparisons of my modestly progressive aspiration to the totalitarian USSR or (ii) various manifestations of "spocking" - a word I use here to mean the nitpicking of an idea to death using ostensibly logical but in fact ludicrously exaggerated assumptions of what would happen if it were implemented - or (iii) the rather sterile argument that something which will not eliminate all educational inequalities is somehow doomed to failure in eliminating any of them.

    But anyway. Virus.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    seriously?

    that is laughably shit .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250

    Sandpit said:

    Can I be first to argue that the UK health system should be much more like Germany's?

    Everyone opposed to the government’s response should agree. ;)

    https://www.businessinsider.nl/germany-why-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-italy-spain-test-healthcare-2020-3?international=true&r=US

    The levels of investment should be similar.

    They aren't


    France has higher health spending than Germany.

    BJO, do you have evidence that France is doing better than Germany?

  • The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    What on earth is a paleo - conservative

    For me I am 100% behind the extension as are 91% of the public in this poll
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoconservatism
    Thank you and I am relieved it is not in my nature or attitude to be in that category
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    Of course he doesn't, he is an evil uncaring baby eating immigrant hating Tory...or something like that.
    The boffins in CCHQ got the virus wrong, it wasn't supposed to target the old. :(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    A bit niche, but we interviewed the head of the Oxford Univertsity tech transfer office who will be responsible for rolling out the covid-19 vaccine that was all over everywhere last weekend. It will be avaiable royalty-free, at least until the pandemic is over:
    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/exclusive-new-ip-policy-help-forge-partnerships-potential-uk-covid-19-vaccine

    Can't we send your bod to the press conference instead? We might learn something then.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    Laura Kunnesberg - give us an idea when the restrictions will be eased

    Did she sleep through Raab address.

    Not exactly that lass from CNN taking down Trump.
    The CNN lass was excellent.

    Kunnesberg is one of many journalists having a stinker in this crisis
    Sam Coates, the next waste of space. Points to the 'debate' being important about when x will happen when it's him and his colleagues who are creating that debate. Good put down from Raab, though, getting close to saying 'what a stupid question'.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting - sex, age and co-morbidities clearly linked to mortality, but ethnicity not as clear - so they're investigating it urgently.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    The government tells Britain that what it is doing in working, but the fact they cannot give any date whatsoever for a lock down withdrawal suggests they have very little confidence in the first statement.

    Perfectly reasonable not to give any dates - it would be irresponsible to do so. However, it is important to set out the parameters of the decision making process. The public needs to be prepared for what is going to be a long, drawn out process. It's good that Starmer got the focus onto this and Labour needs to keep on probing. That's the way we will get a detailed exit strategy. Having an effective opposition is good for this country.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    seriously?

    that is laughably shit .
    The correct answer is that the Lady Chakrabarti is to be commissioned to lead a Royal Commission into institutional racism on the part of COVID variant viruses.

    A separate commission will handle the sexism issue.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    seriously?

    that is laughably shit .
    The wording of the question was 'are you on their side?' (which is just as ridiculous).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited April 2020

    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    seriously?

    that is laughably shit .
    There must be a chat room where the journos egg each other on to ask the most inane question without actually getting fired. Although "feel bad" guy might just have gone too far and lost their job....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    No 5 is a bit tenuous.

    4 seems to be a goal that is always just over the horizon.
    18k tests yesterday
    Also capacity apparently far higher, 35,000.
    So only have to triple capacity and use it at nearly 100% in the next two weeks to reach the government target.
    Well they have already tripled it in the previous two weeks.
    Tests have been pretty static for the last 10 days.
    Government are going to say we have the capacity but not the demand so we have met our target..

    As the 60 million of us untested shout WHAATT
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    Of course he doesn't, he is an evil uncaring baby eating immigrant hating Tory...or something like that.
    The boffins in CCHQ got the virus wrong, it wasn't supposed to target the old. :(
    Serves them right for buying a cheap knock-off Chinese virus like that.

    Everyone knows that the best Evil Biological Weapons are made by the American Military - it's in all the movies.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    No 5 is a bit tenuous.

    4 seems to be a goal that is always just over the horizon.
    18k tests yesterday
    Also capacity apparently far higher, 35,000.
    So only have to triple capacity and use it at nearly 100% in the next two weeks to reach the government target.
    Well they have already tripled it in the previous two weeks.
    Tests have been pretty static for the last 10 days.
    Government are going to say we have the capacity but not the demand so we have met our target..

    As the 60 million of us untested shout WHAATT
    Giving everyone the antigen test would be pointless.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Next Q - does Raab's feel bad that the virus impacts BAME and old people more severely ?

    Of course he doesn't, he is an evil uncaring baby eating immigrant hating Tory...or something like that.
    The boffins in CCHQ got the virus wrong, it wasn't supposed to target the old. :(
    Serves them right for buying a cheap knock-off Chinese virus like that.

    Everyone knows that the best Evil Biological Weapons are made by the American Military - it's in all the movies.
    And did you donate to the CCHQ war chest last year?

    :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn

    We have the 3rd biggest population in Europe so that would be about par
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    A bit niche, but we interviewed the head of the Oxford Univertsity tech transfer office who will be responsible for rolling out the covid-19 vaccine that was all over everywhere last weekend. It will be avaiable royalty-free, at least until the pandemic is over:
    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/exclusive-new-ip-policy-help-forge-partnerships-potential-uk-covid-19-vaccine

    Can't we send your bod to the press conference instead? We might learn something then.
    That would be bad journalism, then.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Interesting - sex, age and co-morbidities clearly linked to mortality, but ethnicity not as clear - so they're investigating it urgently.

    WAYCIST !
  • ukpaul said:

    Laura Kunnesberg - give us an idea when the restrictions will be eased

    Did she sleep through Raab address.

    Not exactly that lass from CNN taking down Trump.
    The CNN lass was excellent.

    Kunnesberg is one of many journalists having a stinker in this crisis
    Sam Coates, the next waste of space. Points to the 'debate' being important about when x will happen when it's him and his colleagues who are creating that debate. Good put down from Raab, though, getting close to saying 'what a stupid question'.
    And it was stupid by Coates

    You have to wonder with these widescale attacks on these journalists if someone in their media management are becoming concerned about their reputation for journalism
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Whoops, that reminds me I got distracted from this thread earlier, in case @Socky is still around:
    Socky said:

    So you said earlier that parents who can afford to pay for school are forced to, whereas those who can't (presumably) have their fees paid by the government? In that case, do you believe that both sets of parents would move their children to a different school if they were unhappy with the standard, or only the paying parent?

    I suspect that the paying parents, assuming they were in the majority, would have a general uplifting effect that benefited all.

    If transferable vouchers were given to poorer parents, then yes they would also be supplying feedback.
    Now I'm following even less. Are you saying that transferable vouchers would be just as good as making parents pay? If so, how does your argument support making parents pay? If not, why not?

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Defending the government Part 2 (Don't worry, I return to the attack in my next post, Part 3):

    It is not the case the financial responses has been 'lamentable', as Alastair posted upthread. It too has been pretty good. The only real criticism I would make was of the Potemkin budget of the 11th March. As I posted on the day (and I was one of very few people who made the criticism at that time), it was completely unrealistic in terms of what was already blindingly obvious on the economic impact of the pandemic. To giver the government their due, however, within a few days they had grasped the scale of the issue and have dealt with it super-fast. Those saying that the money has been too slow to appear are being totally unrealistic as to what is possible.

    The ideas behind the financial response are pretty good, as I said. It’s the implementation that’s been lamentable.
    I don’t agree on the ideas front: too focused on loans and the use of banks and the furlough scheme does not work for businesses which can continue to provide a reduced service. It encourages a shutdown. Better than nothing but if this lockdown is going to continue then the Treasury’s finest minds (ha!) need to rethink it. They should start by talking to some actual SMEs first.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    To be fair, these journos know they are just going through the motions, htye can ask any old shit because the only thing anybody is going to be watching is the walking Captain finishing his walk and bursting through £15m in time for the six-o'clock news.....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    The problem, in my eyes, to that kind of polling, is that its like asking the British public if they think the 1/2 favourite for Saturdays big race, the horse everyone is talking about on the 24hour news cycle, is a good bet to win at those odds. 91% may say yes, and the minority opposing it, thinking it is actually a lay, will be the professionals/clued up layers and bookies. So being out of sync with public opinion, to me, isn't anything to worry about

    Maybe I see everything in terms of gambling, to my detriment, though
    Hm, I'm not sure you could apply that logic to all polls that have an overwhelming favourite.
    No, I wouldnt, only those where the public are asked if they think the thing that is being backed by everyone in the media is a good thing, with a heavier lean when the flip side could mean lots of people dying.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:
    Thanks for sharing that, I would hate to have missed Peter Hitchens congratulating himself on having the courage to look like an idiot in public.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn

    He has already become such an irrelevant footnote that I misread the name and wondered in what way Top Gear was to blame for all this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    If you are a paleo conservative you probably want to reverse all the Reform Acts since 1832 and go back to a 5% franchise, so on that basis you would then be in line with the new electorate!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    HYUFD said:

    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn

    We have the 3rd biggest population in Europe so that would be about par
    So you think the Govt response is distinctly average.

    I will get back to you in 4 weeks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Cyclefree said:

    Defending the government Part 2 (Don't worry, I return to the attack in my next post, Part 3):

    It is not the case the financial responses has been 'lamentable', as Alastair posted upthread. It too has been pretty good. The only real criticism I would make was of the Potemkin budget of the 11th March. As I posted on the day (and I was one of very few people who made the criticism at that time), it was completely unrealistic in terms of what was already blindingly obvious on the economic impact of the pandemic. To giver the government their due, however, within a few days they had grasped the scale of the issue and have dealt with it super-fast. Those saying that the money has been too slow to appear are being totally unrealistic as to what is possible.

    The ideas behind the financial response are pretty good, as I said. It’s the implementation that’s been lamentable.
    I don’t agree on the ideas front: too focused on loans and the use of banks and the furlough scheme does not work for businesses which can continue to provide a reduced service. It encourages a shutdown. Better than nothing but if this lockdown is going to continue then the Treasury’s finest minds (ha!) need to rethink it. They should start by talking to some actual SMEs first.
    The furlough scheme does work for quite a lot of businesses which can operate a reduced service (assuming they have more than one employee), but otherwise, I agree.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    ukpaul said:

    Laura Kunnesberg - give us an idea when the restrictions will be eased

    Did she sleep through Raab address.

    Not exactly that lass from CNN taking down Trump.
    The CNN lass was excellent.

    Kunnesberg is one of many journalists having a stinker in this crisis
    Sam Coates, the next waste of space. Points to the 'debate' being important about when x will happen when it's him and his colleagues who are creating that debate. Good put down from Raab, though, getting close to saying 'what a stupid question'.
    But Coates needs a debate.

    Without debate he doesn't have a job.

    He is part of the entertainment industry.

    It's high time all the holier than thou talk about public service broadcasting was confined to the bin. TV news is now part of the entertainment industry.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    Anyway, sunbathing weather here.

    The sky is cloudless, clear and very very blue.

    I watched ewes which had just lambed and their lambs being moved by the farmer up the hill next to where I am living and they have all scrambled off to get the nice new grass there.

    I have acquired a large variety of knitting wools and will be making lots of lovely things to wear. If anyone fancies a nice hand-knitted garment - not just wool but in cotton or silk or linen etc - then VM me.

    I need to get a pair of really good binoculars and a book about birds so that I can recognise the many birds around here. The birdsong is wonderful.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    RobD said:

    The government tells Britain that what it is doing in working, but the fact they cannot give any date whatsoever for a lock down withdrawal suggests they have very little confidence in the first statement.

    That's because they don't have a magic crystal ball that they can use to see the future.
    That is because the press foiled the appointment of Dom's superforecaster. Even so, they should have at least a rough idea.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    HYUFD said:

    The paleo-conservatives are not so much out of line with the British public as in a completely different queue:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1250807470655766529?s=21

    If you are a paleo conservative you probably want to reverse all the Reform Acts since 1832 and go back to a 5% franchise, so on that basis you would then be in line with the new electorate!
    1832 - that ghastly howling democracy?

    To be honest I have my doubts about the act of *1432* - 40 shillings of property lets peasants and villains vote by the score!
  • HYUFD said:

    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn

    We have the 3rd biggest population in Europe so that would be about par
    So you think the Govt response is distinctly average.

    I will get back to you in 4 weeks.
    Do you really think that in 4 weeks time we will be able to assess how individual countries have performed in covid 19.

    It will be months, even years, before any real lessons will be obvious
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    No 5 is a bit tenuous.

    4 seems to be a goal that is always just over the horizon.
    18k tests yesterday
    Also capacity apparently far higher, 35,000.
    So only have to triple capacity and use it at nearly 100% in the next two weeks to reach the government target.
    Well they have already tripled it in the previous two weeks.
    Tests have been pretty static for the last 10 days.
    Sorry, I was referring to capacity.
    Capacity is important, but insufficient on its own, you need to figure out whom to test, as well.

    On the wider question of "when?" I'd like to repost an attempt of an answer that I first posted a week ago:


    When can we begin - in a responsible way - to relax the lockdown?

    There are 3 crucial factors:

    1) The overall infection needs to subside. We need to be confident that a capable, representative testing regime shows a substantial decline in new infections.
    Bringing it down to zero would require maintaining an even tighter lockdown until Christmas. That's not practically feasible. We need to accept that some infectious carriers will still be around, that new community transmission will occur, new clusters forming.
    There are several lags, both statistically and in real terms. Fatalities lag infections, but the release of hospital patients lags even more. Some people need more than a month to recover, even the "fat blond Jesus" has been lingering for a couple of weeks already. That's why point 2 is important.

    2) There are currently some health care capacities in abundance where the virus hasn't yet shown up, but we need to mind the weakest link of the chain. Even current hotspots will see new infections. We must be sure that all health care facilities are back to a sufficient level of free capacity, stocks of PPE, etc. are replenished.

    3) We need to have an extensive and efficient testing regime in place that can deal with the expected multitude of newly forming infection clusters. That means not only test kits, reagents, lab capacity and staff, but beyond that - maybe even more importantly - we need intelligence, we need to know whom to test.
    A major weakness of the British response seems to have been an early breakdown of contact tracing. The legwork, interviewing the infected and tracking down the contacts, is immensely personnel-intensive. The competent authorities in the UK had been overwhelmed quickly. Ramping up the numbers of staff and instructing them is essential but presumably not sufficient. They need to be assisted by data collecting and processing. The wider population needs to be introduced to the fact that anonymised and secure apps are being developed for that and that the participation of everyone is absolutely crucial for the whole scheme to work. People need to be explained that the relatively minor infringement of their data protection is worth the saving of so many lives.

    The relaxing of the lockdown will be sequential, incremental, possibly with regional or local variations. It will also probably not be linear but oscillating between loosening and tightening again. But until we have a vaccine available the strategy depicted above is without any realistic, responsible alternative.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    An example of just what a contiguous bastard CV is.

    USNS Mercy now has coronvirus outbreak among the crew, despite all crew members being screened before boarding to start the mission.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    £15m, journos.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    The government tells Britain that what it is doing in working, but the fact they cannot give any date whatsoever for a lock down withdrawal suggests they have very little confidence in the first statement.

    That's because they don't have a magic crystal ball that they can use to see the future.
    That is because the press foiled the appointment of Dom's superforecaster. Even so, they should have at least a rough idea.
    Not in the next three weeks, but maybe after. That's a rough idea, isn't it?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Ok so inequality in education only matters to you when it is caused by money. Even though the other that you don't want to address is both much bigger and also impacts on the other kids who are trying to learn as children of those parents tend to be disruptive in the classroom and take up teacher time to deal with and make it more difficult for those to learn to do so?

    By the way should someone tell Kinablu we changed thread so he achieves thread equality?

    I'm here.

    It's not that some people being better parents than others doesn't matter, it's just that the solution for this is worse than the problem. Are we going to have kids brought up 24/7 in identikit communes by standardized robots rather than at home by their own flesh & blood? No. Not for me. What we can do, however, is enact measures which will substantially reduce the impact of parental financial means on the formal educational opportunities of children. This is specifically and exclusively what I am arguing for. Of course I can argue other more extreme things but I'm not doing so here. Parents can continue to help their kids in a thousand different ways. But not by purchasing them a ticket for the schooling equivalent of a gilded gated community. And that is it. It's hardly Pol Pot.

    I'm always astonished by the outrage. It says a lot about how entrenched this particular perk of the affluent is..

    But anyway. Virus.
    I have no skin in the game as couldn't afford private for my son. However the point I keep making and you consistently fail to answer is even if you ban all private schools it won't stop people using money to buy advantage

    They will if really wealthy have them educated abroad, if not really wealthy they will hire private tutors. I can see many teaming up one set hires a maths tutor, one hires an english etc....hmmm sounds almost like an unofficial private school there doesnt it. They will also use financial advantage and buy houses in good school areas and guess what that will crowd the poor out whereas now where many send their kids private they have no reason to buy up all the housing in good school areas so poorer people have more chance. Your solution I suspect is that it would condemn even more of the poorest to the failing schools and all because leftie ideological theory doesn't ever work when put into practise
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    felix said:

    All the talk about ending the lockdown as we are past the peak is utterly reckless. Italy and Spain are both well past the peak and still seeing thousands of daily infections and large numbers of deaths. Today and yesterday the Spanish figures were pretty depressing. There. Is. No. Quick. Way. Out. Of. This.

    If extreme lock down works then those Spain and Italy numbers should be falling through the floor, right?
    You will get in trouble for saying that
    People on a blog site's comment section calling out your idiocy isn't exactly getting thrown in a gulag.
    What have I said that is idiotic?

    The NHS was supposed to be completely overwhelmed but in fact it has gone the other way and has record empty beds.

    I started reporting on here three weeks ago that hospitals were very quiet and was accused of misinformation, yet Matt Hancock confirmed yesterday what I had been saying with record empty NHS beds, yet somehow I am an idiot and everyone who said i was lying is superior.

    It would be interesting to ascertain how much of the reduction is due to.people who don't really need the NHS clogging up the system ?
    Very few. When you stop all routine surgery, all endoscopy, all review outpatients, it all goes a bit quiet, and on a waiting list.

    That there are quiet areas should not be a surprise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    @matthiasfromhamburg - true about testing. I think ramping up capacity is more important for the next wave, rather than this one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    RobD said:

    The government tells Britain that what it is doing in working, but the fact they cannot give any date whatsoever for a lock down withdrawal suggests they have very little confidence in the first statement.

    That's because they don't have a magic crystal ball that they can use to see the future.
    That is because the press foiled the appointment of Dom's superforecaster. Even so, they should have at least a rough idea.
    No, the "freaks and weirdos" are actually working on this as we speak.

    https://epcced.github.io/ramp/

    If our media were switched on, they might ask about such things.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    No 5 is a bit tenuous.

    4 seems to be a goal that is always just over the horizon.
    18k tests yesterday
    Also capacity apparently far higher, 35,000.
    So only have to triple capacity and use it at nearly 100% in the next two weeks to reach the government target.
    Well they have already tripled it in the previous two weeks.
    Tests have been pretty static for the last 10 days.
    Sorry, I was referring to capacity.
    Capacity is important, but insufficient on its own, you need to figure out whom to test, as well.

    On the wider question of "when?" I'd like to repost an attempt of an answer that I first posted a week ago:


    When can we begin - in a responsible way - to relax the lockdown?

    There are 3 crucial factors:

    1) The overall infection needs to subside. We need to be confident that a capable, representative testing regime shows a substantial decline in new infections.
    Bringing it down to zero would require maintaining an even tighter lockdown until Christmas. That's not practically feasible. We need to accept that some infectious carriers will still be around, that new community transmission will occur, new clusters forming.
    There are several lags, both statistically and in real terms. Fatalities lag infections, but the release of hospital patients lags even more. Some people need more than a month to recover, even the "fat blond Jesus" has been lingering for a couple of weeks already. That's why point 2 is important.

    2) There are currently some health care capacities in abundance where the virus hasn't yet shown up, but we need to mind the weakest link of the chain. Even current hotspots will see new infections. We must be sure that all health care facilities are back to a sufficient level of free capacity, stocks of PPE, etc. are replenished.

    3) We need to have an extensive and efficient testing regime in place that can deal with the expected multitude of newly forming infection clusters. That means not only test kits, reagents, lab capacity and staff, but beyond that - maybe even more importantly - we need intelligence, we need to know whom to test.
    A major weakness of the British response seems to have been an early breakdown of contact tracing. The legwork, interviewing the infected and tracking down the contacts, is immensely personnel-intensive. The competent authorities in the UK had been overwhelmed quickly. Ramping up the numbers of staff and instructing them is essential but presumably not sufficient. They need to be assisted by data collecting and processing. The wider population needs to be introduced to the fact that anonymised and secure apps are being developed for that and that the participation of everyone is absolutely crucial for the whole scheme to work. People need to be explained that the relatively minor infringement of their data protection is worth the saving of so many lives.

    The relaxing of the lockdown will be sequential, incremental, possibly with regional or local variations. It will also probably not be linear but oscillating between loosening and tightening again. But until we have a vaccine available the strategy depicted above is without any realistic, responsible alternative.
    "The relaxing of the lockdown will be sequential, incremental, possibly with regional or local variations. It will also probably not be linear but oscillating between loosening and tightening again."

    You're naughty - you just want to see Peston's head explode, don't you?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    To be fair, these journos know they are just going through the motions, htye can ask any old shit because the only thing anybody is going to be watching is the walking Captain finishing his walk and bursting through £15m in time for the six-o'clock news.....

    He's passed £15 million with 10 minutes to spare!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Defending the government Part 2 (Don't worry, I return to the attack in my next post, Part 3):

    It is not the case the financial responses has been 'lamentable', as Alastair posted upthread. It too has been pretty good. The only real criticism I would make was of the Potemkin budget of the 11th March. As I posted on the day (and I was one of very few people who made the criticism at that time), it was completely unrealistic in terms of what was already blindingly obvious on the economic impact of the pandemic. To giver the government their due, however, within a few days they had grasped the scale of the issue and have dealt with it super-fast. Those saying that the money has been too slow to appear are being totally unrealistic as to what is possible.

    The ideas behind the financial response are pretty good, as I said. It’s the implementation that’s been lamentable.
    I don’t agree on the ideas front: too focused on loans and the use of banks and the furlough scheme does not work for businesses which can continue to provide a reduced service. It encourages a shutdown. Better than nothing but if this lockdown is going to continue then the Treasury’s finest minds (ha!) need to rethink it. They should start by talking to some actual SMEs first.
    The furlough scheme does work for quite a lot of businesses which can operate a reduced service (assuming they have more than one employee), but otherwise, I agree.
    Yes, quite. In addition Ms Cyclefree is wrong on the suggestion that help should not have gone through banks. It would be utterly impractical to do it any other way: the civil service simply doesn't have thousands of loan officers sitting around to process claims from businesses, whereas the banks already have the infrastructure and systems in place.

    She's also wrong about them not talking to SMEs. They did.

    Overall it's a good package. The main hole in it was help to medium-sized companies, but they've tweaked that now. The other obvious hole was no help to contractors incorporated as one-person businesses, but that was intentional.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    HYUFD said:

    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn

    We have the 3rd biggest population in Europe so that would be about par
    So you think the Govt response is distinctly average.

    I will get back to you in 4 weeks.
    Do you really think that in 4 weeks time we will be able to assess how individual countries have performed in covid 19.

    It will be months, even years, before any real lessons will be obvious
    So in my books Germany, S Korea have handled this really well.

    Trumps handling has been appalling.

    We are far closer to which in our outcomes?

    You keep saying it's not easy. I agree why do you think Germany and S Korea appear to have found it much easier than the UK?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    Surely the EU will request an extension?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Whatever you think of Johnson's teams performance over the virus, they are being utter twats over this:

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1250821284247867393
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,567

    kamski said:

    The reason why Britain didn't lock down earlier is the same reason that people are agitating for it to be lifted now. People would not buy into that kind of action unless it was clearly necessary - and it wasn't so clearly necessary until the deaths started mounting up - and it couldn't be enforced until legislation was in place, and I doubt that could have been pushed through any earlier.

    And yet many other countries managed to lock down when they had far fewer deaths per capita than the UK did when it locked down.
    Of course it could have been "pushed through" earlier.
    You say "of course" it (the legislation) could have been pushed through earlier. Was it even ready? In an ideal world, the government would have introduced the Bill before - or at least at the same time as - it brought in the lock-down. That the initial phase had no legal basis suggests that the very lengthy Bill might well have still been being drafted at the time.
    They could have made use of the Civil Contingecies act. That would not have required any sort of Parliamentary scrutiny at that point and could then have been superceded by a properly considered act a week or two later
    They could. But the very fact that it wouldn't have required any parliamentary scrutiny is good reason to be very wary of using it. I wouldn't argue that the response to Covid-19 has been perfect by any means but decisions always look easier in retrospect and an instinct not to massively disrupt people's lives (Brexit apart, and that's a bloody big exception), is not usually a bad thing.

    And all this discussion is retrospective. We can't stay in lockdown for 12 months so something approximating to life as normalish is going to have to return while Covid-19 is still out there, circulating and infecting. Discussion and policy options have to think about the future too.
    I agree with the entirety of your comment.

    But the point being made was that there HAD to be delays because the necessary legislation could not get through Parliament quickly enough. This is clearly not true because the Civil Contingencies act is there on the statute books and, if necessary, could have been used. Indeed, for all that I detest the act and think it should be repealed at the earliest opportunity because of its scope for abuse, if ever there was a situation that could have called for it to be used this was it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Cyclefree said:



    I have acquired a large variety of knitting wools and will be making lots of lovely things to wear. If anyone fancies a nice hand-knitted garment - not just wool but in cotton or silk or linen etc - then VM me.

    Do you do facemasks?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    No 5 is a bit tenuous.

    4 seems to be a goal that is always just over the horizon.
    18k tests yesterday
    Also capacity apparently far higher, 35,000.
    So only have to triple capacity and use it at nearly 100% in the next two weeks to reach the government target.
    Well they have already tripled it in the previous two weeks.
    Tests have been pretty static for the last 10 days.
    Sorry, I was referring to capacity.
    Capacity is important, but insufficient on its own, you need to figure out whom to test, as well.

    On the wider question of "when?" I'd like to repost an attempt of an answer that I first posted a week ago:


    When can we begin - in a responsible way - to relax the lockdown?

    There are 3 crucial factors:

    1) The overall infection needs to subside. We need to be confident that a capable, representative testing regime shows a substantial decline in new infections.
    Bringing it down to zero would require maintaining an even tighter lockdown until Christmas. That's not practically feasible. We need to accept that some infectious carriers will still be around, that new community transmission will occur, new clusters forming.
    There are several lags, both statistically and in real terms. Fatalities lag infections, but the release of hospital patients lags even more. Some people need more than a month to recover, even the "fat blond Jesus" has been lingering for a couple of weeks already. That's why point 2 is important.

    2) There are currently some health care capacities in abundance where the virus hasn't yet shown up, but we need to mind the weakest link of the chain. Even current hotspots will see new infections. We must be sure that all health care facilities are back to a sufficient level of free capacity, stocks of PPE, etc. are replenished.

    3) We need to have an extensive and efficient testing regime in place that can deal with the expected multitude of newly forming infection clusters. That means not only test kits, reagents, lab capacity and staff, but beyond that - maybe even more importantly - we need intelligence, we need to know whom to test.
    A major weakness of the British response seems to have been an early breakdown of contact tracing. The legwork, interviewing the infected and tracking down the contacts, is immensely personnel-intensive. The competent authorities in the UK had been overwhelmed quickly. Ramping up the numbers of staff and instructing them is essential but presumably not sufficient. They need to be assisted by data collecting and processing. The wider population needs to be introduced to the fact that anonymised and secure apps are being developed for that and that the participation of everyone is absolutely crucial for the whole scheme to work. People need to be explained that the relatively minor infringement of their data protection is worth the saving of so many lives.

    The relaxing of the lockdown will be sequential, incremental, possibly with regional or local variations. It will also probably not be linear but oscillating between loosening and tightening again. But until we have a vaccine available the strategy depicted above is without any realistic, responsible alternative.
    Agreed.
    But you don't start explaining things to the wider population by saying talking about plans for what we do post lockdown is a "distraction".
    That is both patronising and stupid.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Defending the government Part 2 (Don't worry, I return to the attack in my next post, Part 3):

    It is not the case the financial responses has been 'lamentable', as Alastair posted upthread. It too has been pretty good. The only real criticism I would make was of the Potemkin budget of the 11th March. As I posted on the day (and I was one of very few people who made the criticism at that time), it was completely unrealistic in terms of what was already blindingly obvious on the economic impact of the pandemic. To giver the government their due, however, within a few days they had grasped the scale of the issue and have dealt with it super-fast. Those saying that the money has been too slow to appear are being totally unrealistic as to what is possible.

    The ideas behind the financial response are pretty good, as I said. It’s the implementation that’s been lamentable.
    I don’t agree on the ideas front: too focused on loans and the use of banks and the furlough scheme does not work for businesses which can continue to provide a reduced service. It encourages a shutdown. Better than nothing but if this lockdown is going to continue then the Treasury’s finest minds (ha!) need to rethink it. They should start by talking to some actual SMEs first.
    The furlough scheme does work for quite a lot of businesses which can operate a reduced service (assuming they have more than one employee), but otherwise, I agree.
    Yes, quite. In addition Ms Cyclefree is wrong on the suggestion that help should not have gone through banks. It would be utterly impractical to do it any other way: the civil service simply doesn't have thousands of loan officers sitting around to process claims from businesses, whereas the banks already have the infrastructure and systems in place.

    She's also wrong about them not talking to SMEs. They did.

    Overall it's a good package. The main hole in it was help to medium-sized companies, but they've tweaked that now. The other obvious hole was no help to contractors incorporated as one-person businesses, but that was intentional.
    It was a good initial package.
    But if this goes on for very long, for a very large number of companies, it is a plaster over a gaping wound.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    HYUFD said:

    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn

    We have the 3rd biggest population in Europe so that would be about par
    So you think the Govt response is distinctly average.

    I will get back to you in 4 weeks.
    Do you really think that in 4 weeks time we will be able to assess how individual countries have performed in covid 19.

    It will be months, even years, before any real lessons will be obvious
    So in my books Germany, S Korea have handled this really well.

    Trumps handling has been appalling.

    We are far closer to which in our outcomes?

    You keep saying it's not easy. I agree why do you think Germany and S Korea appear to have found it much easier than the UK?
    South Korea have had SARs and MERS, and spent years developing a technological response to this, that includes infringements on our civil liberties that many in the west aren't comfortable with.

    Even now I don't foresee the UK public being happy with the state being able to spy on our every move, purchase and interaction.

    Germany, have long been comfortable with the use of the private sector when it comes to health care. Its something that many on the left in the UK don't like the idea of and any suggestion of utilising it gets tarred with "privatising the NHS" e.g. I presume you weren't a fan of Tony Blair desire to extend healthcare capacity via the use of private sector providers?

    Part of the reason for our inability to ramp up testing is because all of the sort of testing required in the England goes through PHE. Now we are finally starting to make use of the private sector to increase capacity.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Vallance made the point that the medics considered the long term implications of what they are doing and the potentially deleterious affect on health when weighing up their recommendations/

    Sorry, but how can he? he isn't an economist, much less a politician he doesn't have the first idea of how much the economy is going to shrink, how big a hit that contraction will give to tax revenues, and what the government might do in response.

    Raab has effectively delegated the running of the country to the unqualified, unelected and unaccountable

    Terrifying.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Vallance made the point that the medics considered the long term implications of what they are doing and the potentially deleterious affect on health when weighing up their recommendations/

    Sorry, but how can he? he isn't an economist, much less a politician he doesn't have the first idea of how much the economy is going to shrink, how big a hit that contraction will give to tax revenues, and what the government might do in response.

    Raab has effectively delegated the running of the country to the unqualified, unelected and unaccountable

    Terrifying.

    Luckily such experts exist in the civil service.
  • HYUFD said:

    On Topic

    Yes

    and when we finally add in Care home deaths we pass France to move to 3rd in the shittest outcome in Europe league table and to me looks more and more like we will end up with most deaths in Europe.

    I blame Jeremy Corbyn

    We have the 3rd biggest population in Europe so that would be about par
    So you think the Govt response is distinctly average.

    I will get back to you in 4 weeks.
    Do you really think that in 4 weeks time we will be able to assess how individual countries have performed in covid 19.

    It will be months, even years, before any real lessons will be obvious
    So in my books Germany, S Korea have handled this really well.

    Trumps handling has been appalling.

    We are far closer to which in our outcomes?

    You keep saying it's not easy. I agree why do you think Germany and S Korea appear to have found it much easier than the UK?
    I cannot answer that - there are multiple factors in play and even the experts are saying that various countries have different systems, demography, population concentrations, etc

    We may have made mistakes with the benefit of hindsight but so have most other countries, and we are only in the first chapter of a very long book
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited April 2020

    Whatever you think of Johnson's teams performance over the virus, they are being utter twats over this:

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1250821284247867393

    As they do not want to suffer the fate May did when she delayed Brexit by extending the transition period and seeing Leavers again defect from the Tories to the Brexit Party

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1250692097205841920?s=19
  • Monkeys said:

    Surely the EU will request an extension?

    HMG have said today they will reject any extension and we will leave at the end of the year
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Monkeys said:

    Surely the EU will request an extension?

    UK spokesman claims even if EU requests one we will say 'no'.

    Deranged.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Vallance made the point that the medics considered the long term implications of what they are doing and the potentially deleterious affect on health when weighing up their recommendations/

    Sorry, but how can he? he isn't an economist, much less a politician he doesn't have the first idea of how much the economy is going to shrink, how big a hit that contraction will give to tax revenues, and what the government might do in response.

    Raab has effectively delegated the running of the country to the unqualified, unelected and unaccountable

    Terrifying.

    They are considering the long term implications on health.

    Other experts are contributing on the economy.

    Why is that a problem?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    2nd wave virus next winter, combined with No Deal Brexit?

    Hello PM Starmer in 2024 and for the next decade.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Nigelb said:

    It was a good initial package.
    But if this goes on for very long, for a very large number of companies, it is a plaster over a gaping wound.

    Agreed, but I don't think anyone has a solution for that problem. If (as seems likely) there is some kind of lockdown or even extensive self-imposed isolation for an extended period, there are going to be a lot of businesses going bust and high unemployment whatever any government does.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    Vallance made the point that the medics considered the long term implications of what they are doing and the potentially deleterious affect on health when weighing up their recommendations/

    Sorry, but how can he? he isn't an economist, much less a politician he doesn't have the first idea of how much the economy is going to shrink, how big a hit that contraction will give to tax revenues, and what the government might do in response.

    Raab has effectively delegated the running of the country to the unqualified, unelected and unaccountable

    Terrifying.

    Luckily such experts exist in the civil service.
    Raab's five tests show he isn;t listening to any of them. He is in thrall to SAGE. Completely.

    Presumably because he thinks that's the best way of covering his hide.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    Vallance made the point that the medics considered the long term implications of what they are doing and the potentially deleterious affect on health when weighing up their recommendations/

    Sorry, but how can he? he isn't an economist, much less a politician he doesn't have the first idea of how much the economy is going to shrink, how big a hit that contraction will give to tax revenues, and what the government might do in response.

    Raab has effectively delegated the running of the country to the unqualified, unelected and unaccountable

    Terrifying.

    Luckily such experts exist in the civil service.
    Raab's five tests show he isn;t listening to any of them. He is in thrall to SAGE. Completely.

    Presumably because he thinks that's the best way of covering his hide.
    Those tests are so nebulous that their thresholds can easily be changed based on the latest advice.
  • Monkeys said:

    Surely the EU will request an extension?

    Yes, of course. It's the responsible thing to do in circumstances like the current ones.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, sunbathing weather here.

    The sky is cloudless, clear and very very blue.

    I watched ewes which had just lambed and their lambs being moved by the farmer up the hill next to where I am living and they have all scrambled off to get the nice new grass there.

    I have acquired a large variety of knitting wools and will be making lots of lovely things to wear. If anyone fancies a nice hand-knitted garment - not just wool but in cotton or silk or linen etc - then VM me.

    I need to get a pair of really good binoculars and a book about birds so that I can recognise the many birds around here. The birdsong is wonderful.

    We were in a similar position some years back and although not ornithologists we still found that some guides just didn't show nearly enough for us in terms of the sex/age/seasonal variation in plumage etc., especially in illustrations. You need something specially painted to show this - books with a single photo etc per bird are useless.

    This is the one we now have - might be worth looking at, esp as it is n ot just GB.

    Collins Bird Guide
    Lars Svensson, Peter James Grant, Killian Mullarney


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, sunbathing weather here.

    The sky is cloudless, clear and very very blue.

    I watched ewes which had just lambed and their lambs being moved by the farmer up the hill next to where I am living and they have all scrambled off to get the nice new grass there.

    I have acquired a large variety of knitting wools and will be making lots of lovely things to wear. If anyone fancies a nice hand-knitted garment - not just wool but in cotton or silk or linen etc - then VM me.

    I need to get a pair of really good binoculars and a book about birds so that I can recognise the many birds around here. The birdsong is wonderful.

    I’m jealous! It’s been cloudy and cool here on Tyneside, I was hoping to top-up my tan from the last few days.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Vallance made the point that the medics considered the long term implications of what they are doing and the potentially deleterious affect on health when weighing up their recommendations/

    Sorry, but how can he? he isn't an economist, much less a politician he doesn't have the first idea of how much the economy is going to shrink, how big a hit that contraction will give to tax revenues, and what the government might do in response.

    Raab has effectively delegated the running of the country to the unqualified, unelected and unaccountable

    Terrifying.

    Luckily such experts exist in the civil service.
    Raab's five tests show he isn;t listening to any of them. He is in thrall to SAGE. Completely.

    Presumably because he thinks that's the best way of covering his hide.
    Those tests are so nebulous that their thresholds can easily be changed based on the latest advice.
    Well it will give the press pack something to talk to themselves about for the next day or two.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, sunbathing weather here.

    The sky is cloudless, clear and very very blue.

    I watched ewes which had just lambed and their lambs being moved by the farmer up the hill next to where I am living and they have all scrambled off to get the nice new grass there.

    I have acquired a large variety of knitting wools and will be making lots of lovely things to wear. If anyone fancies a nice hand-knitted garment - not just wool but in cotton or silk or linen etc - then VM me.

    I need to get a pair of really good binoculars and a book about birds so that I can recognise the many birds around here. The birdsong is wonderful.

    I’m jealous! It’s been cloudy and cool here on Tyneside, I was hoping to top-up my tan from the last few days.
    I thought the only opportunity for a Geordie to top up their tan without going abroad was via a sunbed or spray tan?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    2nd wave virus next winter, combined with No Deal Brexit?

    Hello PM Starmer in 2024 and for the next decade.

    What would guarantee PM Starmer is splitting the vote on the right and seeing Leavers defect from the Tories to the Brexit Party under FPTP by extending the transition indefinitely.

    As Yougov showed it is Remainers who strongly support extending the transition and the vast majority of them are already voting for Starmer's Labour Party or the LDs, most Leavers are still voting Tory and oppose extending the transition
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, sunbathing weather here.

    The sky is cloudless, clear and very very blue.

    I watched ewes which had just lambed and their lambs being moved by the farmer up the hill next to where I am living and they have all scrambled off to get the nice new grass there.

    I have acquired a large variety of knitting wools and will be making lots of lovely things to wear. If anyone fancies a nice hand-knitted garment - not just wool but in cotton or silk or linen etc - then VM me.

    I need to get a pair of really good binoculars and a book about birds so that I can recognise the many birds around here. The birdsong is wonderful.

    Binoculars. There's good and then there's good. Low three figures will be OK. Mid three figures - good. Four figures - good. You probably don't the colour to be perfectly true unless you are trying to identify tricky warblers.

    Best thing is to go to the Birdfair in Rutland. But it has just been canned for 2020. There you could have tried dozens and dozens. They are very personal are binoculars. Weight, feel in the hands, ease of focussing, size of lenses...you can't buy them on line. In Focus is who I use and they have a shop at Martin Mere WWT. Although Martin Mere will be closed too for now, but worth a diversion if you are travelling up to Cumbria by car.

    Plenty of field guides. RSPB I think used to give you one when you joined. If they don't, not expensive to buy - Harrop.

    There is a huge resource to check bird song online. Get to know a few - blue tit, great tit, wren, robin, dunnock, goldfinch, song thrush, blackbird, blackcap, willow warbler. Then you'll start going "mmmm - what's that?"



  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Defending the government Part 2 (Don't worry, I return to the attack in my next post, Part 3):

    It is not the case the financial responses has been 'lamentable', as Alastair posted upthread. It too has been pretty good. The only real criticism I would make was of the Potemkin budget of the 11th March. As I posted on the day (and I was one of very few people who made the criticism at that time), it was completely unrealistic in terms of what was already blindingly obvious on the economic impact of the pandemic. To giver the government their due, however, within a few days they had grasped the scale of the issue and have dealt with it super-fast. Those saying that the money has been too slow to appear are being totally unrealistic as to what is possible.

    The ideas behind the financial response are pretty good, as I said. It’s the implementation that’s been lamentable.
    I don’t agree on the ideas front: too focused on loans and the use of banks and the furlough scheme does not work for businesses which can continue to provide a reduced service. It encourages a shutdown. Better than nothing but if this lockdown is going to continue then the Treasury’s finest minds (ha!) need to rethink it. They should start by talking to some actual SMEs first.
    The furlough scheme does work for quite a lot of businesses which can operate a reduced service (assuming they have more than one employee), but otherwise, I agree.
    Yes, quite. In addition Ms Cyclefree is wrong on the suggestion that help should not have gone through banks. It would be utterly impractical to do it any other way: the civil service simply doesn't have thousands of loan officers sitting around to process claims from businesses, whereas the banks already have the infrastructure and systems in place.

    She's also wrong about them not talking to SMEs. They did.

    Overall it's a good package. The main hole in it was help to medium-sized companies, but they've tweaked that now. The other obvious hole was no help to contractors incorporated as one-person businesses, but that was intentional.
    As I have said multiple times, I think loans are the wrong way to go. The government should expand the grants side of the package. A loan is no good to a business which has no income and will not be able to replace the lost income when it reopens.

    Cyclefree said:



    I have acquired a large variety of knitting wools and will be making lots of lovely things to wear. If anyone fancies a nice hand-knitted garment - not just wool but in cotton or silk or linen etc - then VM me.

    Do you do facemasks?
    A new Cyclefree business is born! Stylish covers to put over proper masks. They could match your scarf and hat - also knitted by me.

    I can see the presentation on Dragon’s Den already......
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited April 2020

    Monkeys said:

    Surely the EU will request an extension?

    UK spokesman claims even if EU requests one we will say 'no'.

    Deranged.
    It depends on the length of the extension, how many billions the EU would want, and how much we could be involved in bailing out the EU post covid 19

    Furthermore, how much EU law would inhibit our ability to mitigate the financial damage to our economy and the making of our own laws

    Answers to these questions will be needed to retain public opinion

    If Starmer tries to persuade the voters that paying more into the EU over transition and being restricted by EU law at the same time, he may find he has a big problem with them
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    2nd wave virus next winter, combined with No Deal Brexit?

    Hello PM Starmer in 2024 and for the next decade.

    What would guarantee PM Starmer is splitting the vote on the right and seeing Leavers defect from the Tories to the Brexit Party under FPTP by extending the transition indefinitely.

    As Yougov showed it is Remainers who strongly support extending the transition and the vast majority of them are already voting for Starmer's Labour Party or the LDs, most Leavers are still voting Tory and oppose extending the transition
    That opinion polling has no relevance what so ever. Brexit is STILL an abstract concept considering nothing has actually changed yet. It will cease to be an abstract concept in such a scenario referenced above.
This discussion has been closed.