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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pale Horse. Politics in the shadow of Covid-19

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  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    Sandpit said:

    ......Your scheme also need to account for the extra state spending involved in publicly educating all those who currently educate their kids privately, .......

    That doesn´t make much sense. Schools simly put the new pupil into an existing class - no extra expense involved...... And the admin remains the same. Secretaries etc do not work on a per capita basis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,603
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    Wrong link that I can no longer edit in Vanilla. Correction;

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755487257243648
    Fantastic news!
    Why such joy ?
    1. The EU as an organisation is much weaker than it was three months ago. It's response to the current crisis has been abysmal, and leaves many questions unanswered as regards to the operation of the single currency.
    2. The reason given by No.10, that being outside the EU structures allows much more freedom in how the UK deals with the aftermath of a severe recession.
    3. The UK doesn't really doesn't want to be caught up in the EU collective response, when we don't have a seat at the table. There is likely to be substantial political reform required (=Treaty, rushed through).
    4. Any extension costs at least a couple of hundred million a week in ongoing membership fees, money which is much better spent on the UK economy than thrown into the big EU money pit for no return.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium
    QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer

    1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat?
    2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it?
    3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium?
    4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain?
    5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last?
    6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance?
    7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through?
    8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone?
    9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven
    10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?

    Extra Questions
    1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles?
    2. Who is the Prime Minister of France?
    3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?

    TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).


    QUIZ Answers.

    1. Fish
    2. Orange (or red)
    3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!)
    4. Mt Everest
    5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m)
    6. 400m (4x100m relay)
    7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks)
    8. iPhone 3G
    9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11)
    10. On the Moon

    Extras
    1. Mississippi
    2. Eduard Philippe
    3. Six (Each had two names)
    TIE BREAKER - 873 people!

    5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
    60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
    I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
    Yes it is.

    The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.

    Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
    Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...

    That's impressive, even for PB...
    What is wrong with the idea of a long, but unquantifiable, time?
    Nothing.

    I said "X is not Y"

    He replied "Yes it is. X could be a long time but Y is gone when they run out [after 60 minutes in this case]"
    Ah OK. But how long do they last means something different from how long do their effects last, as with a bout of sex which results in a successful pregnancy.
    How long do you last can mean when do you need another one

    But it's not worth arguing. It was a badly drafted question, that is all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems the bulk of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slow down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was has become normal number of reported deaths for the prior 2 day period. Which is somewhat worrying.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TimT said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    No one who was serious about negotiation would ask for it now.

    Extensions always get agreed at the last minute (not literally). They just do.
    In the UN, extensions often first take the form of stopping the clock, literally at the last minute.
    stopping the clock I what I've seen before as well.

    I did one project where a 21 day clock lasted 2 years and 12 days.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium
    QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer

    1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat?
    2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it?
    3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium?
    4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain?
    5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last?
    6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance?
    7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through?
    8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone?
    9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven
    10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?

    Extra Questions
    1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles?
    2. Who is the Prime Minister of France?
    3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?

    TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).


    QUIZ Answers.

    1. Fish
    2. Orange (or red)
    3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!)
    4. Mt Everest
    5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m)
    6. 400m (4x100m relay)
    7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks)
    8. iPhone 3G
    9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11)
    10. On the Moon

    Extras
    1. Mississippi
    2. Eduard Philippe
    3. Six (Each had two names)
    TIE BREAKER - 873 people!

    5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
    60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
    I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
    Yes it is.

    The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.

    Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
    Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...

    That's impressive, even for PB...
    What is wrong with the idea of a long, but unquantifiable, time?
    Nothing.

    I said "X is not Y"

    He replied "Yes it is. X could be a long time but Y is gone when they run out [after 60 minutes in this case]"
    Ah OK. But how long do they last means something different from how long do their effects last, as with a bout of sex which results in a successful pregnancy.
    How long do you last can mean when do you need another one

    But it's not worth arguing. It was a badly drafted question, that is all.
    I do accept that, it's just there's not much else to do.

    Most pills come with time specific directions "to be taken at night/with food" etc. And no doctor gives you pills, they give you prescriptions which take on average >90 mins to fill anyway before you start.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems some of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slowl down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was being reported over the past week. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Correctly, sadly more a plateau than a fall.

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1250776533863628800/photo/1
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Amazon has closed its six distribution centres in France, two days after a French court ruled it was not doing enough to protect workers from the coronavirus pandemic.

    Well you are shit out of luck if you want something from Amazon in France.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,603

    Socky said:

    kinabalu said:

    People will do a hell of a lot to give their kids an advantage in life. As regards education, in the absence of private schools this will mainly take the form of (i) trying to base themselves near the best state schools and (ii) investing in extra tuition outside of school hours.

    That is plenty for most people, and basically how things operate at present.

    Anecdote time: when I was at school, we looked down on the local private schools, as they were mainly used by parents as a plan B if little Johnny was too thick to pass the 11 plus. When Comprehensives came along, there was a cheaper solution: move to be near a good state school.

    The bad state schools were unaffected.
    Which is something that the believers in comprehensives have never confronted. Despite the mantra that all are equal, some are simply secondary moderns renamed, while others are effectively grammar schools.
    Indeed so.

    Many advocates of comprehensive education just happen to live in areas where their local "comp" has living in a £750k house as a minimum entry requirement.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1250695060766720000?s=20
    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1250697711944454144?s=20
    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1250700351763894272?s=20

    Of course many countries have simply banned arrivals from Britain, except for their own nationals.

    They're all wrong and we're right?

    But that really isn't the choice, is it ?
    We're talking about a complete absence of any kind of screening. Asking if we should ban all arrivals isn't an answer to that.
    I think the answer is that it doesn't work. Screening by temperature misses the asymptomatic and those with mild symptoms, and catches a lot of other people. No other country is currently much worse than us so it doesn't really matter. And to do it properly the Government would have to rent hotels and quarantine everyone for 14 days under house arrest,
    New Zealand managed it. If people genuinely, really genuinely need to fly they'll accept quarantine on each end.
    The difference being that the number of visitors who genuinely, really genuinely, need to fly to New Zealand is statistically zero.
    Why do people (Other than repatriation) need to fly here during a lockdown ?
    Fruit pickers?
    Why? There are masses of people furloughed. A special dispensation to pick fruit for extra money could be very attractive. 'land army' etc.
    As if Brits would get off their arses and pick fruit over lazing around and binge watching Netflix. (I include myself in that second category).
    tell them it's NHS fruit for nurses.
    Money, good cause, relieve the boredom. There are lots of reasons.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited April 2020

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems the bulk of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slow down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was has become normal number of reported deaths for the prior 2 day period. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Lets face it, Our government policy is putting us very close to be totally at sea.

    The worst economic decline ever, no real movement on the mortality numbers, soaring debt, no plan to get out.

    And soon, a restive public. The 'this is working' parroting from the doctors is starting to wear a bit thin.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,603
    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ......Your scheme also need to account for the extra state spending involved in publicly educating all those who currently educate their kids privately, .......

    That doesn´t make much sense. Schools simly put the new pupil into an existing class - no extra expense involved...... And the admin remains the same. Secretaries etc do not work on a per capita basis.
    So everyone gets larger class sizes as a result? That doesn't sound sellable to the masses.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    ClippP said:

    That doesn´t make much sense. Schools simly put the new pupil into an existing class - no extra expense involved...... And the admin remains the same. Secretaries etc do not work on a per capita basis.

    To the extent anyone has done any planning, I believe that the idea is that the private schools will be nationalised as happened with hospitals at the start of the NHS.

    Therefore the state has to find the cash to run Eton Comprehensive (et al).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Socky said:


    So a two-tier system totally funded by the state. Though of course happens already, and is a good reason for reform and privatisation.

    If we throw lots of middle class people in jail, the jails will probably get better as well.

    You don't get to Good via Evil.

    I support a fully privatized schools system. Fees to be the same and every parent to receive this amount (per child) from the government in the form of a voucher. Within that framework schools to compete for the best pupils and pupils to compete for the best schools. Really like that. Best of all possible worlds. As for "good vs evil", I at first recoiled, but given I do view educational inequality as an evil, I suppose it is a battle along those lines. No jail for dissidents, though, I assure you!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    Wrong link that I can no longer edit in Vanilla. Correction;

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755487257243648
    Fantastic news!
    Why such joy ?
    1. The EU as an organisation is much weaker than it was three months ago. It's response to the current crisis has been abysmal, and leaves many questions unanswered as regards to the operation of the single currency.
    2. The reason given by No.10, that being outside the EU structures allows much more freedom in how the UK deals with the aftermath of a severe recession.
    3. The UK doesn't really doesn't want to be caught up in the EU collective response, when we don't have a seat at the table. There is likely to be substantial political reform required (=Treaty, rushed through).
    4. Any extension costs at least a couple of hundred million a week in ongoing membership fees, money which is much better spent on the UK economy than thrown into the big EU money pit for no return.
    I am absolutely delighted at this news.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems the bulk of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slow down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was has become normal number of reported deaths for the prior 2 day period. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Lets face it, Our government policy is putting us very close to be totally at sea.

    The worst economic decline ever, no real movement on the mortality numbers, soaring debt, no plan to get out.

    And soon, a restive public. The 'this is working' parroting from the doctors is starting to wear a bit thin.
    You do realise that most people dying will have been infected before we went into lockdown. As for getting out of it, Germany have said normal life is on hold until at least the 31st August. I think all European countries are going to be the same, so you might as well prepare yourself for months of restrictions.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems some of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slowl down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was being reported over the past week. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Correctly, sadly more a plateau than a fall.

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1250776533863628800/photo/1
    It needs a bit more time to settle. At a cost of GBP2.5bn a day and countless livelihoods/

    Do us an effing favour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    No one who was serious about negotiation would ask for it now.

    Extensions always get agreed at the last minute (not literally). They just do.
    What this "spokesman" is saying by categorically ruling out any extension, is that no agreement no matter how good is worth any delay no matter how short. It's a deeply unserious to say if you are pretending to negotiate a good deal. And the idea that talking nonsense is the serious way to negotiate is itself unserious. You either mean what you say or you don't.
    This isn't a negotiation or part of it. It's posturing. The EU know that if we were close to a good deal we'd extend. We know they know. They know we know they know.

    This is for the press. It's a deeply irrelevant and unserious question, so it gets the answer it deserves.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems some of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slowl down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was being reported over the past week. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Correctly, sadly more a plateau than a fall.

    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1250776533863628800/photo/1
    I thought we would be in the thousands per day this week, there was always going to be a plateau before the fall
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    The whole point is that they didn't, because the people running communism states had no intention of living by the rules of the utopian fiction they imposed on others.

    Well quite. It is not a model to follow.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    Wrong link that I can no longer edit in Vanilla. Correction;

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755487257243648
    Fantastic news!
    Why such joy ?
    1. The EU as an organisation is much weaker than it was three months ago. It's response to the current crisis has been abysmal, and leaves many questions unanswered as regards to the operation of the single currency.
    2. The reason given by No.10, that being outside the EU structures allows much more freedom in how the UK deals with the aftermath of a severe recession.
    3. The UK doesn't really doesn't want to be caught up in the EU collective response, when we don't have a seat at the table. There is likely to be substantial political reform required (=Treaty, rushed through).
    4. Any extension costs at least a couple of hundred million a week in ongoing membership fees, money which is much better spent on the UK economy than thrown into the big EU money pit for no return.
    I am absolutely delighted at this news.
    That is because you are, as confirmed by that statement, an economic imbecile
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    kinabalu said:

    Socky said:


    So a two-tier system totally funded by the state. Though of course happens already, and is a good reason for reform and privatisation.

    If we throw lots of middle class people in jail, the jails will probably get better as well.

    You don't get to Good via Evil.

    I support a fully privatized schools system. Fees to be the same and every parent to receive this amount (per child) from the government in the form of a voucher. Within that framework schools to compete for the best pupils and pupils to compete for the best schools. Really like that. Best of all possible worlds. As for "good vs evil", I at first recoiled, but given I do view educational inequality as an evil, I suppose it is a battle along those lines. No jail for dissidents, though, I assure you!
    The main cause of educational inequality as I have told you before is parents and not necessarily because they are rich but because they value education and push their children. This is why some demographics do better than others. Their parents come from a culture that values education and even if they are poor they will take time to help with homework, get them reading, home tutor them on top of it.

    A child with parents that do not give a toss about education and see it as a waste of time as you just claim dole and deal some weed on the side innit....those will always struggle and as a group do poorly.

    You want educational inequality gone....take parents out of the loop and you would have more success
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems the bulk of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slow down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was has become normal number of reported deaths for the prior 2 day period. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Lets face it, Our government policy is putting us very close to be totally at sea.

    The worst economic decline ever, no real movement on the mortality numbers, soaring debt, no plan to get out.

    And soon, a restive public. The 'this is working' parroting from the doctors is starting to wear a bit thin.
    You do realise that most people dying will have been infected before we went into lockdown. As for getting out of it, Germany have said normal life is on hold until at least the 31st August. I think all European countries are going to be the same, so you might as well prepare yourself for months of restrictions.
    The WHO says the average Corona incubation period is five days and we have been in lockdown for three and a half weeks.

  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    kinabalu said:

    I support a fully privatized schools system. Fees to be the same and every parent to receive this amount (per child) from the government in the form of a voucher. Within that framework schools to compete for the best pupils and pupils to compete for the best schools. Really like that. Best of all possible worlds.

    I could live with that.
    kinabalu said:

    As for "good vs evil", I at first recoiled, but given I do view educational inequality as an evil, I suppose it is a battle along those lines.

    My point is that arguing that sacrifices have to be made to get to a pure system is counter-productive. Nature will find a way...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems the bulk of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slow down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was has become normal number of reported deaths for the prior 2 day period. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Lets face it, Our government policy is putting us very close to be totally at sea.

    The worst economic decline ever, no real movement on the mortality numbers, soaring debt, no plan to get out.

    And soon, a restive public. The 'this is working' parroting from the doctors is starting to wear a bit thin.
    You do realise that most people dying will have been infected before we went into lockdown. As for getting out of it, Germany have said normal life is on hold until at least the 31st August. I think all European countries are going to be the same, so you might as well prepare yourself for months of restrictions.
    The WHO says the average Corona incubation period is five days and we have been in lockdown for three and a half weeks.

    But the incubation period varies up to IIRC about 14 days, plus you have to allow the patient to become overtly ill and die = typically 18 days. 32 days, so we have plenty of time to go yet, no?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    MaxPB said:

    The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.

    Looking at the day breakdown, it seems the bulk of the increase is due to delayed reporting over the Easter weekend, but there is also no sign of any real slow down in the deaths over the past 2 days, compared to what was has become normal number of reported deaths for the prior 2 day period. Which is somewhat worrying.
    Lets face it, Our government policy is putting us very close to be totally at sea.

    The worst economic decline ever, no real movement on the mortality numbers, soaring debt, no plan to get out.

    And soon, a restive public. The 'this is working' parroting from the doctors is starting to wear a bit thin.
    You do realise that most people dying will have been infected before we went into lockdown. As for getting out of it, Germany have said normal life is on hold until at least the 31st August. I think all European countries are going to be the same, so you might as well prepare yourself for months of restrictions.
    The WHO says the average Corona incubation period is five days and we have been in lockdown for three and a half weeks.

    PS And even with the 5 day median period, that gives about 23 days to die - so Mr Urquhart F would seem to be right?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ClippP said:

    Sandpit said:

    ......Your scheme also need to account for the extra state spending involved in publicly educating all those who currently educate their kids privately, .......

    That doesn´t make much sense. Schools simly put the new pupil into an existing class - no extra expense involved...... And the admin remains the same. Secretaries etc do not work on a per capita basis.
    But I'm sure you (or others like you) have told us that class sizes are too large and school facilities too crowded at the moment.

    And yet you can accommodate a 8% increase in headcount just like that?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    Wrong link that I can no longer edit in Vanilla. Correction;

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755487257243648
    Fantastic news!
    Why such joy ?
    1. The EU as an organisation is much weaker than it was three months ago. It's response to the current crisis has been abysmal, and leaves many questions unanswered as regards to the operation of the single currency.
    2. The reason given by No.10, that being outside the EU structures allows much more freedom in how the UK deals with the aftermath of a severe recession.
    3. The UK doesn't really doesn't want to be caught up in the EU collective response, when we don't have a seat at the table. There is likely to be substantial political reform required (=Treaty, rushed through).
    4. Any extension costs at least a couple of hundred million a week in ongoing membership fees, money which is much better spent on the UK economy than thrown into the big EU money pit for no return.
    "We don't want a negotiation of any kind with the EU" Which at least has the merit of clarity, albeit with some drastic consequences.

    But that wasn't what the spox said. He claims the need for certainty. But are we to plan for Juche with our milder version of Kim Jong Un complete with personality cult, so we can move our business out of the UK pronto? Our are things going to carry on pretty much as now and we plan for that?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Oh dear, 861 deaths in hospitals reported today.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    No one who was serious about negotiation would ask for it now.

    Extensions always get agreed at the last minute (not literally). They just do.
    What this "spokesman" is saying by categorically ruling out any extension, is that no agreement no matter how good is worth any delay no matter how short. It's a deeply unserious to say if you are pretending to negotiate a good deal. And the idea that talking nonsense is the serious way to negotiate is itself unserious. You either mean what you say or you don't.
    This isn't a negotiation or part of it. It's posturing. The EU know that if we were close to a good deal we'd extend. We know they know. They know we know they know.

    This is for the press. It's a deeply irrelevant and unserious question, so it gets the answer it deserves.
    We have to allow for people meaning what they say. And if this "spokesman" does mean what he says, it has quite significant consequences compared with him not meaning what he says.

    If it's purely for public consumption and has nothing to do with the negotiation, he could just say" negotiations are on track and we hope to have a good deal by December"

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited April 2020
    Socky said:

    Why even try to make the whole system better if you can just game it enough to get the results you need?

    This is why the USSR is relevant. Beautiful and simple idea, crap in reality.

    As ever, perfect is the enemy of good enough.

    The USSR is a strawman. You will be aware that when one is discussing NHS reform somebody wedded to the status quo will always keep on pointing to the US healthcare abomination and saying, "Look, that's what the alternative looks like." That is what you're doing here.

    As for not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good, that too is exactly what you are doing. Yes, if there are no private schools it will cause issues. It certainly won't totally eliminate educational inequality. You never can do that. I accept this. But - key point - just because something fixes only 40% of a problem does not mean it is not worth doing. It is. It's good but it's not perfect.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    No one who was serious about negotiation would ask for it now.

    Extensions always get agreed at the last minute (not literally). They just do.
    What this "spokesman" is saying by categorically ruling out any extension, is that no agreement no matter how good is worth any delay no matter how short. It's a deeply unserious to say if you are pretending to negotiate a good deal. And the idea that talking nonsense is the serious way to negotiate is itself unserious. You either mean what you say or you don't.
    This isn't a negotiation or part of it. It's posturing. The EU know that if we were close to a good deal we'd extend. We know they know. They know we know they know.

    This is for the press. It's a deeply irrelevant and unserious question, so it gets the answer it deserves.
    We have to allow for people meaning what they say. And if this "spokesman" does mean what he says, it has quite significant consequences compared with him not meaning what he says.

    If it's purely for public consumption and has nothing to do with the negotiation, he could just say" negotiations are on track and we hope to have a good deal by December"

    And then journalists write headlines “government won’t rule out extension”

    The problem is we have a fundamentally unserious media
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Sandpit said:

    Exactly. If you're an internationally wealthy person, it matters little if your kid goes to Eton College UK, Eton College Singapore or Eton College Dubai.

    If The UK branch closes then the others just get busier - with the UK wealthy kids joining in too.

    Those in the UK who have worked 100 hours a week for years to set up a business and become wealthy, are not about to send their kids to the local comp, no matter how much you try and compel them.

    I don't know why you're equating the wealthy with those who have set up a business and worked 100 hours a week for years. Most wealthy people have not done that. And an awful lot of people who have done that are not wealthy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Which is something that the believers in comprehensives have never confronted. Despite the mantra that all are equal, some are simply secondary moderns renamed, while others are effectively grammar schools.

    The belief is not that they are all equal - an impossible ask - but that they are more equal than the alternatives.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Noone who was serious about negotiation would think this. Our government is deeply unserious.

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761

    Wrong link that I can no longer edit in Vanilla. Correction;

    https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755487257243648
    Fantastic news!
    Why such joy ?
    1. The EU as an organisation is much weaker than it was three months ago. It's response to the current crisis has been abysmal, and leaves many questions unanswered as regards to the operation of the single currency.
    2. The reason given by No.10, that being outside the EU structures allows much more freedom in how the UK deals with the aftermath of a severe recession.
    3. The UK doesn't really doesn't want to be caught up in the EU collective response, when we don't have a seat at the table. There is likely to be substantial political reform required (=Treaty, rushed through).
    4. Any extension costs at least a couple of hundred million a week in ongoing membership fees, money which is much better spent on the UK economy than thrown into the big EU money pit for no return.
    I am absolutely delighted at this news.
    Sorry, its not "news". Its statement of current policy. Which will remain current policy. Until (if) it changes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Socky said:

    That is plenty for most people, and basically how things operate at present.

    Anecdote time: when I was at school, we looked down on the local private schools, as they were mainly used by parents as a plan B if little Johnny was too thick to pass the 11 plus. When Comprehensives came along, there was a cheaper solution: move to be near a good state school.

    The bad state schools were unaffected.

    Most say that when comps replaced grammars it BOOSTED private schools.

    Are you postulating the opposite?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Sandpit said:

    So everyone gets larger class sizes as a result? That doesn't sound sellable to the masses.

    No. There would need to be a (modest) increase in the education budget.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Pagan2 said:

    well evidence suggests you are wrong as are schools are full of the children of foreign influential people. Why do you think ours will act any different?

    I confidently assert that a wealthy Brit is less likely to choose a boarding school in Russia than a Russian oligarch is to choose Eton or Harrow.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Pagan2 said:

    The main cause of educational inequality as I have told you before is parents and not necessarily because they are rich but because they value education and push their children. This is why some demographics do better than others. Their parents come from a culture that values education and even if they are poor they will take time to help with homework, get them reading, home tutor them on top of it.

    A child with parents that do not give a toss about education and see it as a waste of time as you just claim dole and deal some weed on the side innit....those will always struggle and as a group do poorly.

    You want educational inequality gone....take parents out of the loop and you would have more success

    Good points. But it's both the parents AND their money. I want to take just the second out of the equation. The inequality this leaves - which is substantial - can and should be tolerated.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    So everyone gets larger class sizes as a result? That doesn't sound sellable to the masses.

    No. There would need to be a (modest) increase in the education budget.
    Only about 10bn...for no improvement in education at all.
This discussion has been closed.