I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
5% or so..
Actually that's what it was years ago before VirginGiving kicked them up the backside but it seems a lot more reasonable and the fees are listed at https://www.justgiving.com/info/fees-2019-march
so it's 1.9% + 20p from every transaction (a lot of which will be going to the bank who provides the processing gateway) and 5% of the gift aided reclaim amount.
So what you are saying, is they used to really take the piss.
Yep, they really used to and now they (or their banks) just take somewhat take the piss. For reference Stripe would charge me 1.4% + 20p for the transaction so I suspect JustGiving are pocketing at least .5% or probably .9%
I wonder if the government will have the guts and integrity to adopt the only approach to the economic crisis which is both feasible and fair - higher and steeply progressive taxation with a focus on wealth.
If they do I'll be voting Conservative next time, Starmer or no Starmer.
And if they do it I won't be voting Conservative next time, Boris or no Boris
Boris is instinctively a big state spender. This crisis will make him even more so. He is also a social liberal. The Conservative Party won the last election but what follows will probably be unrecognisable to economic or social conservatives. Cheer away because your side won but in many respects a Boris Government is not going to look much different from a Blair one.
I agree. That's why I think it's very likely a new political party, probably led by someone like Nigel Farage, will emerge in the next two or three years which is not in favour of big state spending. (I know this doesn't seem like a good time to argue in favour of a smaller state but that will fade over time).
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
5% or so..
Actually that's what it was years ago before VirginGiving kicked them up the backside but it seems a lot more reasonable and the fees are listed at https://www.justgiving.com/info/fees-2019-march
so it's 1.9% + 20p from every transaction (a lot of which will be going to the bank who provides the processing gateway) and 5% of the gift aided reclaim amount.
So what you are saying, is they used to really take the piss.
Yep, they really used to and now they (or their banks) just take somewhat take the piss. For reference Stripe would charge me 1.4% + 20p for the transaction so I suspect JustGiving are pocketing at least .5% or probably .9%
For running a website? The costs are probably far, far lower.
The video from last week was remarkable. He was at death's door but came out with a video that most people thought was sincere. Which at the same time rehearsed the soundbites several times ("engaged in a national battle"), set himself up as the Churchill of the moment and contained the typical Johnsonian contradictions (Does he still think Luis from Porto has been treating the UK as his own country for too long?)
It was quite a thing. I am pretty sure that, whilst properly ill, he was never in the danger zone, his treatment was ultra precautionary, nevertheless it was a very appealing and powerful video that he made.
The government do seem to have stuffed up our virus response though. Doubt this can be hidden forever.
I don't see how that is any different to the regular explanations the likes of Witty and Vallance have given at the press conferences. But then straight after that, we get the "but can I have daughter's friends over for a play date", "no", "well these rules are too confusing".
I missed that particular instance but we do know the rules are too confusing because we have seen the public, the police, and politicians misunderstand them.
No, they might claim they are too confusing, but it as an convenient excuse. I didn't know I couldn't go on a 300 miles round trip to the lake district to have a BBQ officer....
The rules are really very simple. And it is why 90 odd percentage of people have had no issue following them.
And the other 10 per cent who did find them too confusing included the police and the Prime Minister.
"US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who caution it is premature to draw any conclusions."
"US intelligence is reviewing sensitive intelligence collection aimed at the Chinese government, according to the intelligence source, as they pursue the theory. But some intelligence officials say it is possible the actual cause may never be know"
100% certain the Chinese will know. They have the ability to track everybody, so they will be able to review all the movements etc, and contact trace all the way back.
The question is do foreign security services have good enough intel to find out these communications and if they do find it was a leak from a lab, want to upset the whole apple cart and reveal it.
If they can prove it to a level satisfactory to even many who would be wary of upsetting the Chinese government I think it would definitely be worth it for them to reveal it.
Possible, but on the evidence so far, unlikely.
The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 ....The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.
More scientific data could swing the balance of evidence to favor one hypothesis over another. Obtaining related viral sequences from animal sources would be the most definitive way of revealing viral origins. For example, a future observation of an intermediate or fully formed polybasic cleavage site in a SARS-CoV-2-like virus from animals would lend even further support to the natural-selection hypotheses. It would also be helpful to obtain more genetic and functional data about SARS-CoV-2, including animal studies. The identification of a potential intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2, as well as sequencing of the virus from very early cases, would similarly be highly informative. Irrespective of the exact mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 originated via natural selection, the ongoing surveillance of pneumonia in humans and other animals is clearly of utmost importance...
The named authors on this paper carry considerably more weight in their field than "US intelligence".
Complete point-missing. The claim being tested is that a *naturally-evolved* virus escaped from a lab.
The hard core conspiracy theorists claim that it was an invented virus.
If it was an accidental escape, then surely the Chinese would have known exactly what it was as soon as it got out, and that doesn't really fit the timelines.
We know that viruses jump species (SARS, MERS, Ebola, HIV, nvCJD), and this is particularly likely where exotic live animals are in close contact with people. The Wuhan wet market fits the bill pretty well.
The Chinese nedd a total ban on these and rigorous enforcement.
I certainly don't believe the first and the last seems the most reasonable.
However, the lab story. We know in China the culture of trying to cover up any mistake and save face is enormous, especially if you work for the government.
I don't think it is impossible that something could happen, and that an individual (or small group of individuals) desperately worried about repercussions of a mistake and do everything possible to cover it up. And they might not have known quite the repercussions i.e. it is possible that they didn't know how this manifested itself in humans and didn't quite how bad it was.
By the time, it is exposed, this thing is so contagious, that is has spread wildly. Then as it moves up the chain of command of the party from local to national, again the same sort of face saving and cover ups continues to obfuscate and delay any response.
In fact, we know previously that there was an outbreak in China when SARs escaped from a lab in China, where they were doing research on it and was initially covered up. That was a disease they already knew about and both the severity and potential treatments.
"US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who caution it is premature to draw any conclusions."
"US intelligence is reviewing sensitive intelligence collection aimed at the Chinese government, according to the intelligence source, as they pursue the theory. But some intelligence officials say it is possible the actual cause may never be know"
100% certain the Chinese will know. They have the ability to track everybody, so they will be able to review all the movements etc, and contact trace all the way back.
The question is do foreign security services have good enough intel to find out these communications and if they do find it was a leak from a lab, want to upset the whole apple cart and reveal it.
If they can prove it to a level satisfactory to even many who would be wary of upsetting the Chinese government I think it would definitely be worth it for them to reveal it.
Possible, but on the evidence so far, unlikely.
The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 ....The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.
More scientific data could swing the balance of evidence to favor one hypothesis over another. Obtaining related viral sequences from animal sources would be the most definitive way of revealing viral origins. For example, a future observation of an intermediate or fully formed polybasic cleavage site in a SARS-CoV-2-like virus from animals would lend even further support to the natural-selection hypotheses. It would also be helpful to obtain more genetic and functional data about SARS-CoV-2, including animal studies. The identification of a potential intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2, as well as sequencing of the virus from very early cases, would similarly be highly informative. Irrespective of the exact mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 originated via natural selection, the ongoing surveillance of pneumonia in humans and other animals is clearly of utmost importance...
The named authors on this paper carry considerably more weight in their field than "US intelligence".
Complete point-missing. The claim being tested is that a *naturally-evolved* virus escaped from a lab.
The hard core conspiracy theorists claim that it was an invented virus.
If it was an accidental escape, then surely the Chinese would have known exactly what it was as soon as it got out, and that doesn't really fit the timelines.
We know that viruses jump species (SARS, MERS, Ebola, HIV, nvCJD), and this is particularly likely where exotic live animals are in close contact with people. The Wuhan wet market fits the bill pretty well.
The Chinese nedd a total ban on these and rigorous enforcement.
Whereas what they've actually done is recruit security guards at the markets - to arrest anyone taking photos.
Toby Young's new site actually has some interesting stuff and certainly things and links I wasn't aware of.
e.g.
"According to Major General (Res) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, the head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, the epidemic in each country will last no longer than eight weeks, peaking in the sixth week. He has crunched the data across a number of countries and found that the rise and fall of new infections is the same in each one, provided you adjust for the different start times. “This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response,” he told Arutz Sheva 7, the Israeli television news service. “The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline.”
Professor Ben-Israel, who has a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University, said it was clear how the epidemic starts in each country and why infections begin to climb, but not clear why new infections always peak after six weeks and then start to decline. Nonetheless, he has enough confidence in his analysis to recommend that Israel abandon its lockdown and get everyone back to work within two weeks."
I wonder if the government will have the guts and integrity to adopt the only approach to the economic crisis which is both feasible and fair - higher and steeply progressive taxation with a focus on wealth.
If they do I'll be voting Conservative next time, Starmer or no Starmer.
And if they do it I won't be voting Conservative next time, Boris or no Boris
Boris is instinctively a big state spender. This crisis will make him even more so. He is also a social liberal. The Conservative Party won the last election but what follows will probably be unrecognisable to economic or social conservatives. Cheer away because your side won but in many respects a Boris Government is not going to look much different from a Blair one.
I agree. That's why I think it's very likely a new political party, probably led by someone like Nigel Farage, will emerge in the next two or three years which is not in favour of big state spending. (I know this doesn't seem like a good time to argue in favour of a smaller state but that will fade over time).
Perhaps a new party will also emerge perhaps led by someone like George Galloway or Richard Burgon for Corbynomics and socialism
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
5% or so..
Actually that's what it was years ago before VirginGiving kicked them up the backside but it seems a lot more reasonable and the fees are listed at https://www.justgiving.com/info/fees-2019-march
so it's 1.9% + 20p from every transaction (a lot of which will be going to the bank who provides the processing gateway) and 5% of the gift aided reclaim amount.
So what you are saying, is they used to really take the piss.
Yep, they really used to and now they (or their banks) just take somewhat take the piss. For reference Stripe would charge me 1.4% + 20p for the transaction so I suspect JustGiving are pocketing at least .5% or probably .9%
For running a website? The costs are probably far, far lower.
For running a website that has the quality levels to be trusted with bank details? handle financial transactions? etc etc.
A remarkable number of people think that running an on-line business is something that any one person can do. And therefore should cost nothing to run.
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
In a development that runs contrary to the rules of science and technology, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claims to have invented a device that can detect the presence of coronavirus at a distance of 100 metres, writes Patrick Wintour, the Guardian’s diplomatic editor.
The IRGC, subject to intense US sanctions and seen by Washington as the source of instability across the Middle East, unveiled the device earlier this week at a ceremony hosted by its commander Maj Gen Hossein Salami.
The device “creates a magnetic field, and by using an embedded bipolar virus, any infected area can be detected within a 100-metre radius”, according to the IRGC, which said the process takes under five seconds.
Salami said:
This device does not require blood transfusions and operates remotely and intelligently, i.e. it is used for mass screening and fully detects infected surfaces and people who are infected.
He said it would also act as a smart disinfectant since it would know which areas need disinfecting.
This is an amazing scientific phenomenon, and it has been tested in various hospitals, and it has answered more than 80% of its accuracy, and it will be a very good basis for any kind of virus.
It is fair to say that the device’s unveiling led to a degree of scepticism on social media, with some Iranians saying they did not know whether to laugh or cry.
Separately Babak Shokri, vice-chancellor of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences claimed Iran will be able to market a coronavirus-resistant fabric within a month.
It must be faith-powered.....
To be fair, if Iran is 100% infected then they are probably getting it wrong 1/5 deliberately as it wouldn't be credible to claim 100% accuracy...
Germany has a much better idea of the infection rate because of much wider testing. Merkel perfectly shows how an R0 of 1 is nowhere near good enough to relax a lockdown. The act of doing so will, as she says, overrun the health service quickly,
The bottom line, and people can rage about it all they want, is that without mass testing, tracking and tracing there is no end to lockdown as we know it but with it, so knowing the numbers that will allow for tightening and relaxation as necessary, there will be.
There are a number of issues that have shown how the desire for two different things in this situation is incompatible and the struggle, and often failure, to adapt to that is fascinating to see played out,
Firstly, those who saw no need to lock down earlier yet who now want lockdown to finish. These are incompatible desires. Initially, waiting to lock down may have been seen as necessary at that point but it is now lengthening the duration of the lockdown.
Secondly, waiting until people themselves wanted to lock down was a hostage to fortune as it now relies on people doing the opposite and polling has shown that, at that this point, a greater lockdown is desired more than a relaxation. Government mandated lockdown could have led to government mandated unlocking and that power was negated.
Thirdly, the incompatibility of freedoms. The situation can lead to either a curtailment on freedom of movement and socialisation, with its effect on business or a curtailment, or a curtailment of freedom regarding having health, movements and activities closely monitored, The point is moot at the moment, as we don’t have the ability to do that and lockdown will remain until we can (see also the Merkel point, related to testing, tracking and tracing above) but, when it becomes possible and the choice has to be made, which freedom will you trade? I’d have to choose, at this juncture, to have my health, movements and activities closely monitored (and that with the full knowledge that any anonymity given would be a very thin veneer).
"US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who caution it is premature to draw any conclusions."
"US intelligence is reviewing sensitive intelligence collection aimed at the Chinese government, according to the intelligence source, as they pursue the theory. But some intelligence officials say it is possible the actual cause may never be know"
100% certain the Chinese will know. They have the ability to track everybody, so they will be able to review all the movements etc, and contact trace all the way back.
The question is do foreign security services have good enough intel to find out these communications and if they do find it was a leak from a lab, want to upset the whole apple cart and reveal it.
If they can prove it to a level satisfactory to even many who would be wary of upsetting the Chinese government I think it would definitely be worth it for them to reveal it.
Possible, but on the evidence so far, unlikely.
The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 ....The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.
More scientific data could swing the balance of evidence to favor one hypothesis over another. Obtaining related viral sequences from animal sources would be the most definitive way of revealing viral origins. For example, a future observation of an intermediate or fully formed polybasic cleavage site in a SARS-CoV-2-like virus from animals would lend even further support to the natural-selection hypotheses. It would also be helpful to obtain more genetic and functional data about SARS-CoV-2, including animal studies. The identification of a potential intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2, as well as sequencing of the virus from very early cases, would similarly be highly informative. Irrespective of the exact mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 originated via natural selection, the ongoing surveillance of pneumonia in humans and other animals is clearly of utmost importance...
The named authors on this paper carry considerably more weight in their field than "US intelligence".
Complete point-missing. The claim being tested is that a *naturally-evolved* virus escaped from a lab.
The hard core conspiracy theorists claim that it was an invented virus.
If it was an accidental escape, then surely the Chinese would have known exactly what it was as soon as it got out, and that doesn't really fit the timelines.
We know that viruses jump species (SARS, MERS, Ebola, HIV, nvCJD), and this is particularly likely where exotic live animals are in close contact with people. The Wuhan wet market fits the bill pretty well.
The Chinese nedd a total ban on these and rigorous enforcement.
That is a fringe theory, and not the one the article quoted attempts to rebut.
I don't accept that if you have a virus research lab you know everything about each and every virus it contains. I imagine you collect as lot of virus-y looking bats and, over time, learn something about some of the viruses they carry. Anyway, viruses mutate all the time. The escape theory may be wrong, but it isn't an obvious non-strarter.
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
But are we still catching up nursing home deaths? We seem to have contrived another layer of confusion to an already murky picture here.
The very same murky picture we appear to be completely relying on to determine decisions that will profoundly affect our lives for decades.
But that is really the point. The absolute numbers are a list of individual tragedies but in the overall scheme of things they don't actually matter too much so far as policy is concerned. What is important is the direction of travel and to measure that you need to have a consistent basis of recording (and be satisfied that that element that you are recording is genuinely indicative of the overall situation). If you start mucking about with the basis of recording half way through this becomes much more difficult. You simply don't have a data base upon which to base your decisions.
In the end, Coronavirus is a judgement call. Everybody knows there is a tipping point where a horrible economic depression will kill far more Britons than Coronavirus ever could.
The only question is, when is the tipping point? I would argue its already past. It was almost past when we decided to go into lockdown.
It needs a person with huge courage and fortitude to accept media trumpeted high profile deaths today to stop more lower profile deaths tomorrow.
We don't have such a leader.
And in the long term, when the bills start raining in, we will suffer greatly.
Browsing Betfair this morning I can see that, at some point, someone had £360 matched laying Michelle Obama as VP pick at 4.8, and I'm physically sick with envy.
Some of the matches on the various US markets are absolutely disgusting.
I was pleased to lay Mitt Romney at 14/1. It's really strange when these stupid bets have won me more than any considered betting (overall).
I wonder if the government will have the guts and integrity to adopt the only approach to the economic crisis which is both feasible and fair - higher and steeply progressive taxation with a focus on wealth.
If they do I'll be voting Conservative next time, Starmer or no Starmer.
And if they do it I won't be voting Conservative next time, Boris or no Boris
Boris is instinctively a big state spender. This crisis will make him even more so. He is also a social liberal. The Conservative Party won the last election but what follows will probably be unrecognisable to economic or social conservatives. Cheer away because your side won but in many respects a Boris Government is not going to look much different from a Blair one.
I agree. That's why I think it's very likely a new political party, probably led by someone like Nigel Farage, will emerge in the next two or three years which is not in favour of big state spending. (I know this doesn't seem like a good time to argue in favour of a smaller state but that will fade over time).
Ed Davey did pitch the LibDems as fiscal conservatives but whether that remains his position after Covid-19, I do not know. More likely, if Borisism works, Boris will remain and if not, the Conservative Party will change its policy and its leader.
Of course many countries have simply banned arrivals from Britain, except for their own nationals.
They're all wrong and we're right?
But that really isn't the choice, is it ? We're talking about a complete absence of any kind of screening. Asking if we should ban all arrivals isn't an answer to that.
I think the answer is that it doesn't work. Screening by temperature misses the asymptomatic and those with mild symptoms, and catches a lot of other people. No other country is currently much worse than us so it doesn't really matter. And to do it properly the Government would have to rent hotels and quarantine everyone for 14 days under house arrest,
New Zealand managed it. If people genuinely, really genuinely need to fly they'll accept quarantine on each end.
The difference being that the number of visitors who genuinely, really genuinely, need to fly to New Zealand is statistically zero.
Why do people (Other than repatriation) need to fly here during a lockdown ?
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
5% or so..
Actually that's what it was years ago before VirginGiving kicked them up the backside but it seems a lot more reasonable and the fees are listed at https://www.justgiving.com/info/fees-2019-march
so it's 1.9% + 20p from every transaction (a lot of which will be going to the bank who provides the processing gateway) and 5% of the gift aided reclaim amount.
So what you are saying, is they used to really take the piss.
Yep, they really used to and now they (or their banks) just take somewhat take the piss. For reference Stripe would charge me 1.4% + 20p for the transaction so I suspect JustGiving are pocketing at least .5% or probably .9%
For running a website? The costs are probably far, far lower.
JustGiving make just about £4m profit on a bit less than £30m in turnover. Staff costs ~£10m (they have *a lot* of developers - their R&D-tax-credit-eligible expenditure alone is about £2m).
And it is a good platform for the job. You could easily spend more trying to do it yourself, and waste a lot of time in the process. And they don't pay dividends.
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
The worst cases in this are truly impressive. One charity - now gone, I believe - used to consist of -
1) Lobby the EU/Governments for money about problem X 2) Use the money to hold conferences for the Great and Good - chiefly EU/Government bigwigs - off season in holiday resorts, to discuss problem X 3) Repeat (1) 4) No money was spent on problem X
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
"Big Charity" is very top-heavy of management and admin costs. Too many of them spend more money on lobbying that actually helping those they say they help - ask Shelter how many people they provide actual shelter for each Christmas, it's zero.
Your money goes much further when donated to a local charity serving a specific community need.
I know the government now has a very long to-do list, but charity reform needs to be high on the list.
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
I have in the post seen posts of charity campaigners celebrating and boosting about a fund raising effort that generated a 10% return (after campaign costs) while scuppering another charities campaign.
I'm sure Charlie will be along later to confirm similar tales. It's why I'm very careful to only give money to small charities that haven't gone into the chugging and TV advert markets.
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...
That's impressive, even for PB...
What is wrong with the idea of a long, but unquantifiable, time?
The number of new confirmed coronavirus infections in Germany has risen for a second consecutive day, as the country prepares to lift restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the virus*.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases reported 2,866 new confirmed cases on Thursday, bringing the country’s total to to 130,450. The number of new cases on Wednesday was 2,486.
The daily death toll also rose for a second day, by 315 to 3,569, the tally showed. On Wednesday the reported death toll was 285.
* I think there seems to be a bit of overstating what Germany are actually proposing. Opening small shops (like the ones we never closed in the UK) and some kids to go into school to do their exams. All the main stuff is going to be closed until at least the 31st August.
So a prompt Brexit is needed because we need more flexibility for the Coronavirus?
I’m not one with a strong opinion on whether Brexit negotiations should be delayed or not, but this Government really can’t help communicating the most appalling shite.
It’s why I refuse to give them a free pass on handling the virus itself. This is a government which actively eschews planning, and whose first instinct is to deceive the public.
My suspicion is politicking rather posturing. The Jacobins, who may connected with Dominic Cummings or the man himself, are looking to shut down the possibility of extension against a more pragmatic faction within Johnson's government.
Toby Young's new site actually has some interesting stuff and certainly things and links I wasn't aware of.
e.g.
"According to Major General (Res) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, the head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, the epidemic in each country will last no longer than eight weeks, peaking in the sixth week. He has crunched the data across a number of countries and found that the rise and fall of new infections is the same in each one, provided you adjust for the different start times. “This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response,” he told Arutz Sheva 7, the Israeli television news service. “The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline.”
Professor Ben-Israel, who has a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University, said it was clear how the epidemic starts in each country and why infections begin to climb, but not clear why new infections always peak after six weeks and then start to decline. Nonetheless, he has enough confidence in his analysis to recommend that Israel abandon its lockdown and get everyone back to work within two weeks."
So, he predicts that Italy is going to miraculously drop to nothing over the next week, and Spain will follow a week later. The US is going to be down to nothing a week or two behind that, and no-one will see a secondary resurgence when the remove their restrictions? And how does he account for the long plateaus in e.g. Iran, Germany, Italy, Austria? Or the NZ strategy where a quirk of geography, demographics, and leadership, has seen an almost total lockdown which has prevented transmission, and minimized the death rate.
And we have little or no data from Africa and South America.
Toby Young's new site actually has some interesting stuff and certainly things and links I wasn't aware of.
e.g.
"According to Major General (Res) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, the head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, the epidemic in each country will last no longer than eight weeks, peaking in the sixth week. He has crunched the data across a number of countries and found that the rise and fall of new infections is the same in each one, provided you adjust for the different start times. “This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response,” he told Arutz Sheva 7, the Israeli television news service. “The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline.”
Professor Ben-Israel, who has a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University, said it was clear how the epidemic starts in each country and why infections begin to climb, but not clear why new infections always peak after six weeks and then start to decline. Nonetheless, he has enough confidence in his analysis to recommend that Israel abandon its lockdown and get everyone back to work within two weeks."
He hasn't got a clue what's going on but he confidently tells the government to abandon the lockdown.
Browsing Betfair this morning I can see that, at some point, someone had £360 matched laying Michelle Obama as VP pick at 4.8, and I'm physically sick with envy.
Some of the matches on the various US markets are absolutely disgusting.
I was pleased to lay Mitt Romney at 14/1. It's really strange when these stupid bets have won me more than any considered betting (overall).
At the end of the day betting is about finding someone stupider than you. Betfair opens it up for you to directly connect with idiots around the world.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
Poor figures from Spain again today more than 5000 new cases and more than 500 new deaths. Still a long way to go.
Is their truly any evidence that lockdowns work or is the virus just following its curve?
The spanish Health service is very good but has come close to collapse this time. Very close indeed. No lockdown would have been a massacre of the people and the service.
Spain has been in a severe lockdown for 34 days, yet there were 5000 new cases yesterday. Italy has been in lockdown for 38 days, yet there were 3000 new cases yesterday.
It may be that without a lockdown the number of cases would have been 100 times higher, but is there any evidence of that?
Well the evidence is there in the fact that the growth in cases pre-lockdown was massively more than it is now with no flattening of the curve. Had that been allowed to continue the hospitals would have been overwhelmed throughout the country instead of just in a few areas. The curve has been flattened considerably but the lag is considerable. You seem to not appreciate how dangerous the position is.
NH posts anecdotes that support his belief that it's all a fuss about nothing.
What the one from Matt Hancock yesterday when he said there were more empty beds in the NHS yesterday than at any point in its history?
So I suppose you conclude from that that we may as well not have bothered with a lockdown
Why do you think that? I don't believe it is a fuss about nothing, but did you think that at the peak of the virus spread in the UK that there would be more empty beds in the NHS than at any point in its history?
The Government asked for 20,000 nurses to come out of retirement to help out, yet hospitals are strugling to place their nurses due to lack of patients.
These are not anecdotes, these are facts.
It’s because people have calculated the best way of making sure that they, or their family, don’t die or get seriously ill. Maybe the behavioural scientists thought that people would be happy to put themselves in danger. They thought that schools would have 20% of pupils, the reality is 2%*. Ot appears that they thought the same about non emergency hospital visits and miscalculated massively in that area too. What is needed is a clear message that hospitals are safe and that COVID cases are kept separate.
Fun fact, Scott Morrison in Australia is desperate to open schools, states are nearly all telling him that it isn’t safe and they have that power. Victoria opened the schools yesterday for those who wanted to attend and 97% of pupils were kept away by their parents.
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
That's exactly what happened when they introduced free prescriptions for medicine etc in Scotland: much of the additional cost turned out to be covered by the reduction in bureaucracy, given that quite a few people such as OAPs and those on the dole were getting prescriptions free anyway, whatever happened.
Prescription charges are a silly fig leaf so that the politicians can claim GP visits are "free".
Having a sensible charge for a GP appointment (including free prescription if needed) may have lots of side benefits, but is apparently taboo.
Charges for GP appointments pay for themselves by preventing missed appointments.
But only if you assume there will be a reduction in missed appointments, whereas the opposite might be the case if people are more willing to skip if they've paid, and if you wildly over-estimate the cost of missed appointments by dividing the massive fixed costs of a facility into ten-minute units.
I doubt there would be any savings in practice.
Extra admin costs. Including chasing up.
You just ban any future appointments till they have paid over the phone, simple.
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
I have in the post seen posts of charity campaigners celebrating and boosting about a fund raising effort that generated a 10% return (after campaign costs) while scuppering another charities campaign.
I'm sure Charlie will be along later to confirm similar tales. It's why I'm very careful to only give money to small charities that haven't gone into the chugging and TV advert markets.
In the US, you have the right to demand of fundraisers what percentage is actually disbursed for the advertised cause. Often the number is depressingly low. I only give if it is over 85%.
The worst seem to be the various "State Trooper" funds. They give you a sticker to put on your car, with the implication that this may help you get off traffic violations (it does not). Essentially, they are (barely) legal means for affluent beggars to take your money in the name of charity.
Of course many countries have simply banned arrivals from Britain, except for their own nationals.
They're all wrong and we're right?
But that really isn't the choice, is it ? We're talking about a complete absence of any kind of screening. Asking if we should ban all arrivals isn't an answer to that.
I think the answer is that it doesn't work. Screening by temperature misses the asymptomatic and those with mild symptoms, and catches a lot of other people. No other country is currently much worse than us so it doesn't really matter. And to do it properly the Government would have to rent hotels and quarantine everyone for 14 days under house arrest,
New Zealand managed it. If people genuinely, really genuinely need to fly they'll accept quarantine on each end.
The difference being that the number of visitors who genuinely, really genuinely, need to fly to New Zealand is statistically zero.
Why do people (Other than repatriation) need to fly here during a lockdown ?
Fruit pickers?
Why? There are masses of people furloughed. A special dispensation to pick fruit for extra money could be very attractive. 'land army' etc.
Did the politburo queue up to buy food like the proles?
Instead of designing an elegant system that works well in theory, just pick an ugly one that works well in practice.
The Soviet Union is not my favourite domain to test out arguments about the UK but OK. So the (revised) question is -
If the politburo had used the same system as the proles to buy food, would the system have got slicker?
My view is it almost certainly would.
The whole point is that they didn't, because the people running communism states had no intention of living by the rules of the utopian fiction they imposed on others.
Of course many countries have simply banned arrivals from Britain, except for their own nationals.
They're all wrong and we're right?
But that really isn't the choice, is it ? We're talking about a complete absence of any kind of screening. Asking if we should ban all arrivals isn't an answer to that.
I think the answer is that it doesn't work. Screening by temperature misses the asymptomatic and those with mild symptoms, and catches a lot of other people. No other country is currently much worse than us so it doesn't really matter. And to do it properly the Government would have to rent hotels and quarantine everyone for 14 days under house arrest,
New Zealand managed it. If people genuinely, really genuinely need to fly they'll accept quarantine on each end.
The difference being that the number of visitors who genuinely, really genuinely, need to fly to New Zealand is statistically zero.
Why do people (Other than repatriation) need to fly here during a lockdown ?
Fruit pickers?
Why? There are masses of people furloughed. A special dispensation to pick fruit for extra money could be very attractive. 'land army' etc.
As if Brits would get off their arses and pick fruit over lazing around and binge watching Netflix. (I include myself in that second category).
I wonder how much the justgiving company are going to make from that?
I personally find it all very uncomfortable that there is a business, who makes money out of taking a significant percentage of charity donations. I know they claim most of it is payment processing, but still, I don't like it at all.
That's how most charitable giving works, though, be that the commercial operations that run the chuggers for the big charities (who take an obscene amount) to the enormous admin costs of most charities themselves.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
"Big Charity" is very top-heavy of management and admin costs. Too many of them spend more money on lobbying that actually helping those they say they help - ask Shelter how many people they provide actual shelter for each Christmas, it's zero.
Your money goes much further when donated to a local charity serving a specific community need.
I know the government now has a very long to-do list, but charity reform needs to be high on the list.
If anyone wants to get more involved, RAFT (Rapid Action by Fore and Trusts) is focusing on providing emergency grants to small charities.
We are always looking for high quality assessors to help us both in this (and the regular Fore programme) - they get to know the small local charities (less than £500K annual income) that we support very well.
It's a really very good set up and very rewarding from the assessors I've spoken to.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
You way underestimate the degree to which parents will go, in order to give their kids the best possible education.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
When the Labour party was talking about this, in the 70s-80s, the leading public boardings schools acquired land in France and talked to the French government.
Who offered (by the Socialists no less) a guarantee in law of no taxes in return for making French the primary language of the schools. The French were thinking of capturing the minds of the next generation.....
Quite a few schools still have the land.
I was tutored for Maths A level by the (retired) master who had toured France to find the right spot for his school.
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...
That's impressive, even for PB...
What is wrong with the idea of a long, but unquantifiable, time?
Nothing.
I said "X is not Y"
He replied "Yes it is. X could be a long time but Y is gone when they run out [after 60 minutes in this case]"
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
Ha ha,nope most middle class parents would move house or go church more regularly to get their little darlings into an outstanding state school or tutor their children relentlessly to get into a grammar school.
Under no circumstances whatsoever would thry touch a requires improvement or inadequate state school with a bargepole
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...
That's impressive, even for PB...
What is wrong with the idea of a long, but unquantifiable, time?
Nothing.
I said "X is not Y"
He replied "Yes it is. X could be a long time but Y is gone when they run out [after 60 minutes in this case]"
Ah OK. But how long do they last means something different from how long do their effects last, as with a bout of sex which results in a successful pregnancy.
My suspicion is politicking rather posturing. The Jacobins, who may connected with Dominic Cummings or the man himself, are looking to shut down the possibility of extension against a more pragmatic faction within Johnson's government.
When May delayed Brexit the Brexit Party surged at Tory expense, Boris and Cummings do not want the same thing to happen if they delay ending the transition period
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...
That's impressive, even for PB...
Not at all, I feel certain I've managed to contradict myself within the same sentence before, though that may be easier than it sounds depending on length of and construction of the sentence.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
Ha ha,nope most middle class parents would move house or go church more regularly to get their little darlings into an outstanding state school or tutor their children relentlessly to get into a grammar school.
Under no circumstances whatsoever would thry touch a requires improvement or inadequate state school with a bargepole
Ah yes, the Education Christians.
I call them that, due to the phenomenon of Rice Christians* where missionaries operate.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
Ha ha,nope most middle class parents would move house or go church more regularly to get their little darlings into an outstanding state school or tutor their children relentlessly to get into a grammar school.
Under no circumstances whatsoever would thry touch a requires improvement or inadequate state school with a bargepole
Covid could well accelerate the death of organised religions - a bit like cinema.
You way underestimate the degree to which parents will go, in order to give their kids the best possible education.
I don't think I am. People will do a hell of a lot to give their kids an advantage in life. As regards education, in the absence of private schools this will mainly take the form of (i) trying to base themselves near the best state schools and (ii) investing in extra tuition outside of school hours.
Sending their kids off to boarding school in foreign climes will not be a popular option.
That's exactly what happened when they introduced free prescriptions for medicine etc in Scotland: much of the additional cost turned out to be covered by the reduction in bureaucracy, given that quite a few people such as OAPs and those on the dole were getting prescriptions free anyway, whatever happened.
Prescription charges are a silly fig leaf so that the politicians can claim GP visits are "free".
Having a sensible charge for a GP appointment (including free prescription if needed) may have lots of side benefits, but is apparently taboo.
Charges for GP appointments pay for themselves by preventing missed appointments.
But only if you assume there will be a reduction in missed appointments, whereas the opposite might be the case if people are more willing to skip if they've paid, and if you wildly over-estimate the cost of missed appointments by dividing the massive fixed costs of a facility into ten-minute units.
I doubt there would be any savings in practice.
Extra admin costs. Including chasing up.
You just ban any future appointments till they have paid over the phone, simple.
Not really, this is the sort of thing that would 20-30 years ago been really complex and hard to sort out and police. Nowadays with computer systems you really could automate a lot of it away.
The real issue is actually a different one, GPs like being different to dentists.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
You way underestimate the degree to which parents will go, in order to give their kids the best possible education.
I went to a state secondary school. It was shit. That is why I chose to use hard earned money to privately educate my kids. It has been painful but worth it. It is my choice to spend my money on what food I give my kids and where I take them on holiday (when I can afford it). I don't see why interfering political busybodies should dictate where I school them any more than they should dictate the other areas of choice that I make on their behalf.
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...
That's impressive, even for PB...
Not at all, I feel certain I've managed to contradict myself within the same sentence before, though that may be easier than it sounds depending on length of and construction of the sentence.
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
Yes, but even following the doctor's instruction to the letter, you could wait up to 30 minutes before taking the first one.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
well evidence suggests you are wrong as are schools are full of the children of foreign influential people. Why do you think ours will act any different?
No one who was serious about negotiation would ask for it now.
Extensions always get agreed at the last minute (not literally). They just do.
What this "spokesman" is saying by categorically ruling out any extension, is that no agreement no matter how good is worth any delay no matter how short. It's a deeply unserious to say if you are pretending to negotiate a good deal. And the idea that talking nonsense is the serious way to negotiate is itself unserious. You either mean what you say or you don't.
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
I agree. But "how long do they last" is not the same as "when do you run out of pills"
Yes it is.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
Umm. Your second sentence contradicts your first...
That's impressive, even for PB...
Not at all, I feel certain I've managed to contradict myself within the same sentence before, though that may be easier than it sounds depending on length of and construction of the sentence.
Quiz questions: @rcs1000 This was mine from last week. Think carefully before answering. Difficulty: medium QUIZ Questions - not the expected answer
1. Wife and I had Bombay Duck for dinner. What type of animal did we eat? 2. An aeroplane contains a device called a Flight Data Recorder, that is used to help investigate accidents. Commonly known as the Black Box, what colour is it? 3. What is the chemical symbol for the element Potassium? 4. Before the discovery of Mt Everest, what was the world’s tallest mountain? 5. A doctor gives you three pills and says to take one every 30 minutes. How long do they last? 6. According to the world records, the highest speed men’s running race is held over what distance? 7. If you navigate the Suez Canal by boat, how many locks do you have to pass through? 8. Launched in 2008, what was the name given to the second generation iPhone? 9. Write down the number eleven thousand, eleven hundred and eleven 10. Where is the Sea of Tranquility?
Extra Questions 1. What has four eyes and runs 2,000 miles? 2. Who is the Prime Minister of France? 3. Rapper Eminem was in a band called D12. Otherwise known as the Dirty Dozen, how many members did this band have?
TIE BREAKER Airbus A380 - How many people evacuated in 90 seconds for certification test? (plane was full of economy seats).
QUIZ Answers.
1. Fish 2. Orange (or red) 3. K (Po is Polonium, don’t get them confused!) 4. Mt Everest 5. 60 minutes (0m, 30m and 60m) 6. 400m (4x100m relay) 7. None (the Panama Canal is the one with the big locks) 8. iPhone 3G 9. 12,111 (11,111 is 11k *one* hundred and 11) 10. On the Moon
Extras 1. Mississippi 2. Eduard Philippe 3. Six (Each had two names) TIE BREAKER - 873 people!
5 is misleading - arguably the medical effect of the pills lasts 90m, even though you consume the last one at 60m
60' after taking the first one, you have none left. Most people instinctively think it's 90'
Yes, but even following the doctor's instruction to the letter, you could wait up to 30 minutes before taking the first one.
From a behaviourist's perspective, you should probably to a Monte Carlo simulation for expected patient compliance with the doctor's orders. I would assume that the result would be somewhat greater than 60'
You way underestimate the degree to which parents will go, in order to give their kids the best possible education.
I don't think I am. People will do a hell of a lot to give their kids an advantage in life. But in the absence of private schools this will mainly take the form of (i) trying to base themselves near the best state schools and (ii) investing in extra tuition outside of school hours.
Sending their kids off to boarding school in foreign climes will not be a popular option.
Oh, it will, doubly so for the thousands of foreign nationals who choose to base themselves in the UK at least in part because of the good private schools.
As I believe we have discussed before, a lot of the UK private schools already have outposts in places where many nationalities gather - and they are very popular indeed.
Your scheme also need to account for the extra state spending involved in publicly educating all those who currently educate their kids privately, and the loss of around 1% of the economy (including foreign currency transfers) from all the private schools closing.
Of course. If it hadn't been for the plotters in HQ conspiring to win 30 seats in 2017 then Corbyn would have been PM as witnessed by the far stronger -60 seats haul in 2019 once the traitors had left
People will do a hell of a lot to give their kids an advantage in life. As regards education, in the absence of private schools this will mainly take the form of (i) trying to base themselves near the best state schools and (ii) investing in extra tuition outside of school hours.
That is plenty for most people, and basically how things operate at present.
Anecdote time: when I was at school, we looked down on the local private schools, as they were mainly used by parents as a plan B if little Johnny was too thick to pass the 11 plus. When Comprehensives came along, there was a cheaper solution: move to be near a good state school.
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
Ha ha,nope most middle class parents would move house or go church more regularly to get their little darlings into an outstanding state school or tutor their children relentlessly to get into a grammar school.
Under no circumstances whatsoever would thry touch a requires improvement or inadequate state school with a bargepole
Covid could well accelerate the death of organised religions - a bit like cinema.
Certainly those close to end of life like CoE.
Far from it, our local church is getting even more viewers online than it does attend its normal services.
There are 90 million Anglicans globally, more than the entire population of the UK and more people globally are Christians or Muslims than live in China or India
Of course. If it hadn't been for the plotters in HQ conspiring to win 30 seats in 2017 then Corbyn would have been PM as witnessed by the far stronger -60 seats haul in 2019 once the traitors had left
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
well evidence suggests you are wrong as are schools are full of the children of foreign influential people. Why do you think ours will act any different?
Exactly. If you're an internationally wealthy person, it matters little if your kid goes to Eton College UK, Eton College Singapore or Eton College Dubai.
If The UK branch closes then the others just get busier - with the UK wealthy kids joining in too.
Those in the UK who have worked 100 hours a week for years to set up a business and become wealthy, are not about to send their kids to the local comp, no matter how much you try and compel them.
Poor figures from Spain again today more than 5000 new cases and more than 500 new deaths. Still a long way to go.
Is their truly any evidence that lockdowns work or is the virus just following its curve?
The spanish Health service is very good but has come close to collapse this time. Very close indeed. No lockdown would have been a massacre of the people and the service.
Spain has been in a severe lockdown for 34 days, yet there were 5000 new cases yesterday. Italy has been in lockdown for 38 days, yet there were 3000 new cases yesterday.
It may be that without a lockdown the number of cases would have been 100 times higher, but is there any evidence of that?
Well the evidence is there in the fact that the growth in cases pre-lockdown was massively more than it is now with no flattening of the curve. Had that been allowed to continue the hospitals would have been overwhelmed throughout the country instead of just in a few areas. The curve has been flattened considerably but the lag is considerable. You seem to not appreciate how dangerous the position is.
NH posts anecdotes that support his belief that it's all a fuss about nothing.
What the one from Matt Hancock yesterday when he said there were more empty beds in the NHS yesterday than at any point in its history?
So I suppose you conclude from that that we may as well not have bothered with a lockdown
Why do you think that? I don't believe it is a fuss about nothing, but did you think that at the peak of the virus spread in the UK that there would be more empty beds in the NHS than at any point in its history?
The Government asked for 20,000 nurses to come out of retirement to help out, yet hospitals are strugling to place their nurses due to lack of patients.
These are not anecdotes, these are facts.
It’s because people have calculated the best way of making sure that they, or their family, don’t die or get seriously ill. Maybe the behavioural scientists thought that people would be happy to put themselves in danger. They thought that schools would have 20% of pupils, the reality is 2%*. Ot appears that they thought the same about non emergency hospital visits and miscalculated massively in that area too. What is needed is a clear message that hospitals are safe and that COVID cases are kept separate.
Fun fact, Scott Morrison in Australia is desperate to open schools, states are nearly all telling him that it isn’t safe and they have that power. Victoria opened the schools yesterday for those who wanted to attend and 97% of pupils were kept away by their parents.
Some many operations have been cancelled, they need to work out a way to get these done. Does anyone know what surgeons are doing at the moment?
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
well evidence suggests you are wrong as are schools are full of the children of foreign influential people. Why do you think ours will act any different?
Exactly. If you're an internationally wealthy person, it matters little if your kid goes to Eton College UK, Eton College Singapore or Eton College Dubai.
If The UK branch closes then the others just get busier - with the UK wealthy kids joining in too.
Those in the UK who have worked 100 hours a week for years to set up a business and become wealthy, are not about to send their kids to the local comp, no matter how much you try and compel them.
And certainly not a local comp rated any less than outstanding
The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.
People will do a hell of a lot to give their kids an advantage in life. As regards education, in the absence of private schools this will mainly take the form of (i) trying to base themselves near the best state schools and (ii) investing in extra tuition outside of school hours.
That is plenty for most people, and basically how things operate at present.
Anecdote time: when I was at school, we looked down on the local private schools, as they were mainly used by parents as a plan B if little Johnny was too thick to pass the 11 plus. When Comprehensives came along, there was a cheaper solution: move to be near a good state school.
The bad state schools were unaffected.
Which is something that the believers in comprehensives have never confronted. Despite the mantra that all are equal, some are simply secondary moderns renamed, while others are effectively grammar schools.
Of course many countries have simply banned arrivals from Britain, except for their own nationals.
They're all wrong and we're right?
But that really isn't the choice, is it ? We're talking about a complete absence of any kind of screening. Asking if we should ban all arrivals isn't an answer to that.
I think the answer is that it doesn't work. Screening by temperature misses the asymptomatic and those with mild symptoms, and catches a lot of other people. No other country is currently much worse than us so it doesn't really matter. And to do it properly the Government would have to rent hotels and quarantine everyone for 14 days under house arrest,
New Zealand managed it. If people genuinely, really genuinely need to fly they'll accept quarantine on each end.
The difference being that the number of visitors who genuinely, really genuinely, need to fly to New Zealand is statistically zero.
Why do people (Other than repatriation) need to fly here during a lockdown ?
Fruit pickers?
Why? There are masses of people furloughed. A special dispensation to pick fruit for extra money could be very attractive. 'land army' etc.
As if Brits would get off their arses and pick fruit over lazing around and binge watching Netflix. (I include myself in that second category).
Shut private schools their kids will be schooled abroad, shut private health firms again they will simply go abroad etc. You will never achieve what you want
I hardly think that people are going to pack their kids off (!) to foreign boarding schools in preference to the local state secondary. Perhaps a few. No doubt a few more will move house if they judge the local school to be dreadful. However most will make the best of it in that good old English way. They will not only use the local school but throw themselves into improving it.
well evidence suggests you are wrong as are schools are full of the children of foreign influential people. Why do you think ours will act any different?
Exactly. If you're an internationally wealthy person, it matters little if your kid goes to Eton College UK, Eton College Singapore or Eton College Dubai.
If The UK branch closes then the others just get busier - with the UK wealthy kids joining in too.
Those in the UK who have worked 100 hours a week for years to set up a business and become wealthy, are not about to send their kids to the local comp, no matter how much you try and compel them.
And certainly not a local comp rated any less than outstanding
It's quite possible to do well irrespective of all this crap.
If you're not daft then you'll do well in the UK. If you're somewhat wiser you'll do somewhat better.
The Easter weekend numbers don't look good from the data release from first glance. I think the 11th-14th will be the peak of the virus and it will slowly drop off after that.
It's a plateau - the peak has been flattened. And it is below the nhs capacity.
Comments
The government do seem to have stuffed up our virus response though. Doubt this can be hidden forever.
But the say that they are "tech for good" and it's all reinvested in developing new tools
However, the lab story. We know in China the culture of trying to cover up any mistake and save face is enormous, especially if you work for the government.
I don't think it is impossible that something could happen, and that an individual (or small group of individuals) desperately worried about repercussions of a mistake and do everything possible to cover it up. And they might not have known quite the repercussions i.e. it is possible that they didn't know how this manifested itself in humans and didn't quite how bad it was.
By the time, it is exposed, this thing is so contagious, that is has spread wildly. Then as it moves up the chain of command of the party from local to national, again the same sort of face saving and cover ups continues to obfuscate and delay any response.
In fact, we know previously that there was an outbreak in China when SARs escaped from a lab in China, where they were doing research on it and was initially covered up. That was a disease they already knew about and both the severity and potential treatments.
e.g.
"According to Major General (Res) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, the head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, the epidemic in each country will last no longer than eight weeks, peaking in the sixth week. He has crunched the data across a number of countries and found that the rise and fall of new infections is the same in each one, provided you adjust for the different start times. “This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response,” he told Arutz Sheva 7, the Israeli television news service. “The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline.”
Professor Ben-Israel, who has a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University, said it was clear how the epidemic starts in each country and why infections begin to climb, but not clear why new infections always peak after six weeks and then start to decline. Nonetheless, he has enough confidence in his analysis to recommend that Israel abandon its lockdown and get everyone back to work within two weeks."
A remarkable number of people think that running an on-line business is something that any one person can do. And therefore should cost nothing to run.
The effects of the pills could last for a long time, potentially the rest of your life, but the pills are gone when they run out.
Given that its not quantifiable how long the effects of the pills last for the only possible logical answer to that question is when they run out.
The bottom line, and people can rage about it all they want, is that without mass testing, tracking and tracing there is no end to lockdown as we know it but with it, so knowing the numbers that will allow for tightening and relaxation as necessary, there will be.
There are a number of issues that have shown how the desire for two different things in this situation is incompatible and the struggle, and often failure, to adapt to that is fascinating to see played out,
Firstly, those who saw no need to lock down earlier yet who now want lockdown to finish. These are incompatible desires. Initially, waiting to lock down may have been seen as necessary at that point but it is now lengthening the duration of the lockdown.
Secondly, waiting until people themselves wanted to lock down was a hostage to fortune as it now relies on people doing the opposite and polling has shown that, at that this point, a greater lockdown is desired more than a relaxation. Government mandated lockdown could have led to government mandated unlocking and that power was negated.
Thirdly, the incompatibility of freedoms. The situation can lead to either a curtailment on freedom of movement and socialisation, with its effect on business or a curtailment, or a curtailment of freedom regarding having health, movements and activities closely monitored, The point is moot at the moment, as we don’t have the ability to do that and lockdown will remain until we can (see also the Merkel point, related to testing, tracking and tracing above) but, when it becomes possible and the choice has to be made, which freedom will you trade? I’d have to choose, at this juncture, to have my health, movements and activities closely monitored (and that with the full knowledge that any anonymity given would be a very thin veneer).
I don't accept that if you have a virus research lab you know everything about each and every virus it contains. I imagine you collect as lot of virus-y looking bats and, over time, learn something about some of the viruses they carry. Anyway, viruses mutate all the time. The escape theory may be wrong, but it isn't an obvious non-strarter.
Oxfam, for instance, spend about 9% on admin and 7% on "fundraising activities". Of the other 84% they don't break down what goes on humanitarian aid, development projects, and "campaigning", I don't think.
Age UK (Help the Aged as was) used to be one of the worst for admin v. projects. And it is still really hard to find out how they actually disburse their funds - it's almost like they are deliberately obscuring it.
The only question is, when is the tipping point? I would argue its already past. It was almost past when we decided to go into lockdown.
It needs a person with huge courage and fortitude to accept media trumpeted high profile deaths today to stop more lower profile deaths tomorrow.
We don't have such a leader.
And in the long term, when the bills start raining in, we will suffer greatly.
If the politburo had used the same system as the proles to buy food, would the system have got slicker?
My view is it almost certainly would.
https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755997116874761
And it is a good platform for the job. You could easily spend more trying to do it yourself, and waste a lot of time in the process. And they don't pay dividends.
1) Lobby the EU/Governments for money about problem X
2) Use the money to hold conferences for the Great and Good - chiefly EU/Government bigwigs - off season in holiday resorts, to discuss problem X
3) Repeat (1)
4) No money was spent on problem X
https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1250755487257243648
Your money goes much further when donated to a local charity serving a specific community need.
I know the government now has a very long to-do list, but charity reform needs to be high on the list.
I'm sure Charlie will be along later to confirm similar tales. It's why I'm very careful to only give money to small charities that haven't gone into the chugging and TV advert markets.
That's impressive, even for PB...
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/aircraft-hbot-hyperbaric-oxygen-chambers/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases reported 2,866 new confirmed cases on Thursday, bringing the country’s total to to 130,450. The number of new cases on Wednesday was 2,486.
The daily death toll also rose for a second day, by 315 to 3,569, the tally showed. On Wednesday the reported death toll was 285.
* I think there seems to be a bit of overstating what Germany are actually proposing. Opening small shops (like the ones we never closed in the UK) and some kids to go into school to do their exams. All the main stuff is going to be closed until at least the 31st August.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1250760140862693377?s=20
I’m not one with a strong opinion on whether Brexit negotiations should be delayed or not, but this Government really can’t help communicating the most appalling shite.
It’s why I refuse to give them a free pass on handling the virus itself. This is a government which actively eschews planning, and whose first instinct is to deceive the public.
And we have little or no data from Africa and South America.
Fun fact, Scott Morrison in Australia is desperate to open schools, states are nearly all telling him that it isn’t safe and they have that power. Victoria opened the schools yesterday for those who wanted to attend and 97% of pupils were kept away by their parents.
And JustGiving being located in the Blue Fin building, competing with City developer salaries is/was JustStupid, I agree.
The worst seem to be the various "State Trooper" funds. They give you a sticker to put on your car, with the implication that this may help you get off traffic violations (it does not). Essentially, they are (barely) legal means for affluent beggars to take your money in the name of charity.
* Opportunity cost of course. All true costs are opportunity costs.
Extensions always get agreed at the last minute (not literally). They just do.
You don't get to Good via Evil.
If anyone wants to get more involved, RAFT (Rapid Action by Fore and Trusts) is focusing on providing emergency grants to small charities.
We are always looking for high quality assessors to help us both in this (and the regular Fore programme) - they get to know the small local charities (less than £500K annual income) that we support very well.
It's a really very good set up and very rewarding from the assessors I've spoken to.
Who offered (by the Socialists no less) a guarantee in law of no taxes in return for making French the primary language of the schools. The French were thinking of capturing the minds of the next generation.....
Quite a few schools still have the land.
I was tutored for Maths A level by the (retired) master who had toured France to find the right spot for his school.
I said "X is not Y"
He replied "Yes it is. X could be a long time but Y is gone when they run out [after 60 minutes in this case]"
Under no circumstances whatsoever would thry touch a requires improvement or inadequate state school with a bargepole
This is why the USSR is relevant. Beautiful and simple idea, crap in reality.
As ever, perfect is the enemy of good enough.
And they have eight eyes!
So business having been hammered by the virus will now be given another shock . The government is unhinged.
I call them that, due to the phenomenon of Rice Christians* where missionaries operate.
Certainly those close to end of life like CoE.
Sending their kids off to boarding school in foreign climes will not be a popular option.
The real issue is actually a different one, GPs like being different to dentists.
It is my choice to spend my money on what food I give my kids and where I take them on holiday (when I can afford it). I don't see why interfering political busybodies should dictate where I school them any more than they should dictate the other areas of choice that I make on their behalf.
As I believe we have discussed before, a lot of the UK private schools already have outposts in places where many nationalities gather - and they are very popular indeed.
Your scheme also need to account for the extra state spending involved in publicly educating all those who currently educate their kids privately, and the loss of around 1% of the economy (including foreign currency transfers) from all the private schools closing.
Anecdote time: when I was at school, we looked down on the local private schools, as they were mainly used by parents as a plan B if little Johnny was too thick to pass the 11 plus. When Comprehensives came along, there was a cheaper solution: move to be near a good state school.
The bad state schools were unaffected.
There are 90 million Anglicans globally, more than the entire population of the UK and more people globally are Christians or Muslims than live in China or India
If The UK branch closes then the others just get busier - with the UK wealthy kids joining in too.
Those in the UK who have worked 100 hours a week for years to set up a business and become wealthy, are not about to send their kids to the local comp, no matter how much you try and compel them.
Does anyone know what surgeons are doing at the moment?
If you're not daft then you'll do well in the UK. If you're somewhat wiser you'll do somewhat better.