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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A dangerous vacuum or duality: A wing and a prayer isn’t good

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    Not his twin but ......
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,833
    I have moved my garden bench to the front of my house. Ordinarily it wouldn't be somewhere I'd linger - a B road in a suburb, usually pretty busy with traffic. But traffic is virtually nonexistent and there is instead a constant passagietta of suburbanites taking their exercise on foot or by bike and stopping for a chat at a polite distance. And there is a pleasant view of suburban trees heavy with blossom, of magnolia and wisteria. It gets the sun from lunchtime until sunset. It's like being in a beer garden.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    alterego said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    Not his twin but ......
    We shall see...
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    alterego said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    Not his twin but ......
    We shall see...
    We shall indeed. On the other hand we may not. There I go with my KS impression. Apologies for that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Andy_JS said:

    Germany just reported 2,117 new cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I think the new deths is a technical error on Woldomeaters front page the Germany page seems to say 127 deaths.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Yes we all remember how popular John Major was after winning in 1992 - he had defied gravity, he had shown the Conservatives would always win. The locals had been good, Labour had a new leader but were going nowhere.

    Remind me how that worked out for your lot...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Andy_JS said:

    Germany just reported 2,117 new cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Isn't that just a partial report though?

    Worldometers seems to add information during the day as it arrrives, so the 'today' figure is not necessairly reliable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited April 2020
    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    No one sane cares much about party politics, polls or elections* at the moment. The election is years away. We don’t have the faintest idea what that election will like.

    * With the notable exception of the US election and the defeat of Trump.

  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    I thought I had seen somebody on here a few days ago saying that the virus cant or dost survive on newspaper. don't know how accurate
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    You are absolutely right. There is no good reason to think Labour have any more appeal to voters than before.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    Blair and Cameron both led in the polls in the month after they were elected leader and they were the last 2 leaders to take their party from opposition into Government.

    Of course things could change but on first impressions it does suggest there is not going to be a Starmer landslide at the next general election even if he turns it round and scrapes into No 10
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    Blair and Cameron both led in the polls in the month after they were elected leader and they were the last 2 leaders to take their party from opposition into Government.

    Of course things could change but on first impressions it does suggest there is not going to be a Starmer landslide at the next general election even if he turns it round and scrapes into No 10
    Good grief, what a load of old crap.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany just reported 2,117 new cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Isn't that just a partial report though?

    Worldometers seems to add information during the day as it arrrives, so the 'today' figure is not necessairly reliable.
    I thought it was gospel till I saw how different it was to the official figures here in Spain.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,833

    alterego said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    Not his twin but ......
    We shall see...
    Big positive approval numbers for the government. Big positive approval numbers for SKS. Everyone very happy with politicians.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,151

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
    Perhaps so, but it's still a notable and significant shift in attitude, which speaks as to his actual possibilities even if they do not see it as enough.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I trust that all the poll naysayers tonight will recall their words if the next poll gives a Labour bounce. They will be shrielking it from the rooftops. It'll be just like the LDs when they win a parish by-election. :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,151
    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    True, but they were pretty low even before the flag rallying saw the Tories go yet higher, and if even a few more had noticed it wasn't unreasonable to suspect some level of relatively impressive bounce.

    The time will come.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
    Starmer may be sane, but he's not exactly inspiring is he. I've not seen or heard any compelling account of how and why he will turn things around in the Midlands and the North.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556



    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Pride comes before a fall...
    So does the tightrope-walking onanist - but what a life! :wink:
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    Blair and Cameron both led in the polls in the month after they were elected leader and they were the last 2 leaders to take their party from opposition into Government.

    Of course things could change but on first impressions it does suggest there is not going to be a Starmer landslide at the next general election even if he turns it round and scrapes into No 10
    Good grief, what a load of old crap.
    Yeah HYUFD is somewhat overegging it.


    But there is a serious point here. For the next few months, at until the autumn polictics as we 'know it' is suspended. Sir Keith won't have the honeymoon period, and the frothy 'getting to know you' photo spreads etc.

    Forget not makign a good first impression, he might not make any first impression, and for one as dull and as boring as him, that might not a good thing for labour.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    Blair and Cameron both led in the polls in the month after they were elected leader and they were the last 2 leaders to take their party from opposition into Government.

    Of course things could change but on first impressions it does suggest there is not going to be a Starmer landslide at the next general election even if he turns it round and scrapes into No 10
    I appreciate that the last month feels like an eternity but we are quite four months into a Parliament that could last five years. Polling this early and in the current circumstances is a pointless waste of time and resources.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
    Who are you calling a PB Tory ?

    I've already pointed out two open goals that Starmer could score in:

    Why has the government not placed restrictions on people entering the country ?

    Why has the government allowed us to become so dependent upon imports for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies ?

    Lets see if he manages to notice them.
  • Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    My friend has assured me that the Mail isn't too rough on the buttocks, so in this era of toilet paper shortages you might buy it for use in an emergency.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    HYUFD said:
    I wonder if anyone has given Sir Keith a list of the seats he'd lose on those numbers?
    Who is Keith?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If the PM was close to death he’d have been on a ventilator. The Mail on Sunday seem determined to beatify the PM into Mother Theresa .

    I’m glad he’s improving but enough already !
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Just looking at the stats on worldomeater I'm surprised at how well south Africa is managing things. only 25 deaths. which seems low compared to how long the virus has been in South Africa, any thoughts or knowledge?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    My friend has assured me that the Mail isn't too rough on the buttocks, so in this era of toilet paper shortages you might buy it for use in an emergency.
    It is soft, strong and highly absorbing (I'm told).
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
    Who are you calling a PB Tory ?

    I've already pointed out two open goals that Starmer could score in:

    Why has the government not placed restrictions on people entering the country ?

    Why has the government allowed us to become so dependent upon imports for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies ?

    Lets see if he manages to notice them.
    He's planning to tie himself up in a knot over Free Movement over the course of this parliament which is why he can't do the first one.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    humbugger said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
    Starmer may be sane, but he's not exactly inspiring is he. I've not seen or heard any compelling account of how and why he will turn things around in the Midlands and the North.
    If Starmer has any sense, for the moment he would be well advised to STFU. The less he says, the less he becomes a hostage to fortune. Remain supportive of the government during the crisis, once the crisis is over the government's handling can be forensically dissected. That is when politics should return to the status quo and errors can be pinpointed.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    stodge said:

    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Yes we all remember how popular John Major was after winning in 1992 - he had defied gravity, he had shown the Conservatives would always win. The locals had been good, Labour had a new leader but were going nowhere.

    Remind me how that worked out for your lot...
    Er, we cowed Labour into such craven submission that the only leader to beat us electorally is called a Tory by his own party :smile:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    My friend has assured me that the Mail isn't too rough on the buttocks, so in this era of toilet paper shortages you might buy it for use in an emergency.
    Does the Mail have another function?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited April 2020
    See later post
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,151
    Scott_xP said:
    I've no objection to a recall of Parliament, but is there a particular purpose the parties have in mind or just as a general principle?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    Because if there's one thing the coronavirus fears, it's an abundance of hot air...
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I've no objection to a recall of Parliament, but is there a particular purpose the parties have in mind or just as a general principle?
    so this is their TRY HARDER tactic. Interesting.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BigRich said:

    Just looking at the stats on worldomeater I'm surprised at how well south Africa is managing things. only 25 deaths. which seems low compared to how long the virus has been in South Africa, any thoughts or knowledge?

    They do seem to be doing much better than expected. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-52228932

    One theory is that they still universally give the BCG vaccine, and lots of them are on antivirals for HIV.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    BigRich said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany just reported 2,117 new cases and no fatalities.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I think the new deths is a technical error on Woldomeaters front page the Germany page seems to say 127 deaths.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/
    Well, the Germans are reporting 155 deaths, 2678 total up from 2523.

    https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/news/coronavirus-news-mehr-als-500-000-corona-faelle-in-den-usa-pflegeheim-in-nrw-nach-hilferuf-evakuiert_id_11576018.html
  • Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    My friend has assured me that the Mail isn't too rough on the buttocks, so in this era of toilet paper shortages you might buy it for use in an emergency.
    Does the Mail have another function?
    Yes.

    My wife loves the puzzles so I cannot cancel the on line subscription
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    edited April 2020
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I've no objection to a recall of Parliament, but is there a particular purpose the parties have in mind or just as a general principle?
    No it will be pointless again just like when they went to court to stop prorogation then sat on their fat arses and did absolutely nothing in the time the court case kept them sitting
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I've no objection to a recall of Parliament, but is there a particular purpose the parties have in mind or just as a general principle?
    Bore the Covid-19 virus into submission?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    BigRich said:

    Just looking at the stats on worldomeater I'm surprised at how well south Africa is managing things. only 25 deaths. which seems low compared to how long the virus has been in South Africa, any thoughts or knowledge?

    summer in SA?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    HYUFD said:
    I wonder if anyone has given Sir Keith a list of the seats he'd lose on those numbers?
    I'm sure Doris could supply one if asked
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited April 2020
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    IshmaelZ said:

    BigRich said:

    Just looking at the stats on worldomeater I'm surprised at how well south Africa is managing things. only 25 deaths. which seems low compared to how long the virus has been in South Africa, any thoughts or knowledge?

    They do seem to be doing much better than expected. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-52228932

    One theory is that they still universally give the BCG vaccine, and lots of them are on antivirals for HIV.
    Having seen the brutality of their lockdown enforcement I think most people are afraid to go out twofold - police/army and virus. Pretty nasty footage of people being roughed up and rumours of deaths.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
    Perhaps so, but it's still a notable and significant shift in attitude, which speaks as to his actual possibilities even if they do not see it as enough.
    Yeah, I guess so.
    While it's not in my political interests to see a revived Labour party in Scotland, I'd imagine the country (UK) is in a kind of mental lockdown anyway with not much interest in new political retail offers. I'd say that's influencing the polling rather than deep admiration & love for current governments, SNP included.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    My friend has assured me that the Mail isn't too rough on the buttocks, so in this era of toilet paper shortages you might buy it for use in an emergency.
    Does the Mail have another function?
    Yes.

    My wife loves the puzzles so I cannot cancel the on line subscription
    I am not sure that the online offering is as functional as the paper edition for the use outlined by TSE.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS' first poll as Tory leader was Labour 46% Tories 29%.
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
    Still, he is starting with the major advantage of not being IDS.
    But the major disadvantage of being Sir Keir Starmer.
    I see PB Tories have moved seamlessly from 'Lab must get rid of mad Trot Corb & get a sane leader' to 'Lab have sane leader but he's just not good enough'.

    Gor blimey, strike a light, could have knocked me down wiith a feather guv.
    Perhaps so, but it's still a notable and significant shift in attitude, which speaks as to his actual possibilities even if they do not see it as enough.
    Yeah, I guess so.
    While it's not in my political interests to see a revived Labour party in Scotland, I'd imagine the country (UK) is in a kind of mental lockdown anyway with not much interest in new political retail offers. I'd say that's influencing the polling rather than deep admiration & love for current governments, SNP included.
    I fully expect the labour party to drop more seats in 2024 when people realise the potential horror of a corbyn government for the crisis and also realise a lot of those people are still in place.....we need a decent new party to replace them as opposition
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Gabs3 said:
    We all need scapegoats. The EU, for the moment is as handy as any other.
  • Gabs3 said:
    We all need scapegoats. The EU, for the moment is as handy as any other.
    The media and the EU have lost credibility in this crisis
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,567

    dr_spyn said:
    One of the oddities of technology development is that the last time a human left earth orbit was 1972.
    That is very sad.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Regarding scepticism of lockdowns, quarantines and the idea that we are all at risk of dying from Covid19 to the extent such measures are justified, I’d say this...

    Don’t know how many of you bet on the horses, but from a point of view of making a book, I’d say the race to find the correct strategy to deal with the pandemic is more like a maiden ft lightly and unraced horses than a handicap with form in the book. As such I’d want to be a layer of every runner, esp the odds on fav which has no form to speak of but the world and his wife want to back at any price. I just think we don’t know enough to be so sure that a particular strategy is correct beyond doubt.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited April 2020
    Gabs3 said:
    Not really that much of a surprise. But Italy has been an economic mess for years even before the Euro and nationalists there are blaming the EU for everything.

    Huge corruption hasn’t helped either and the bureaucracy is crazy there . I’ve never been a fan of the Euro which was always an accident waiting to happen.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Yes, why don’t we get them arguing over every minute detail like they did over Brexit?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    stodge said:

    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Yes we all remember how popular John Major was after winning in 1992 - he had defied gravity, he had shown the Conservatives would always win. The locals had been good, Labour had a new leader but were going nowhere.

    Remind me how that worked out for your lot...
    Sir Keith Stormer is no Tony Blair though.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Gabs3 said:
    We all need scapegoats. The EU, for the moment is as handy as any other.
    The media and the EU have lost credibility in this crisis
    By the time this is all over credibility will be in short supply from all quarters.

    The EU could provide a handy hook on which to hang the failures of national governments. We did it for years!

    Media questioning at the press conferences have by-and-large been very, very poor. When a good, difficult to answer question comes along, it is normally on the hour, and I have noticed the BBC cuts to the news presenter rather than wait for the answer.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    stodge said:

    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Yes we all remember how popular John Major was after winning in 1992 - he had defied gravity, he had shown the Conservatives would always win. The locals had been good, Labour had a new leader but were going nowhere.

    Remind me how that worked out for your lot...
    Sir Keith Stormer is no Tony Blair though.....
    KIER. KIER STRAMER.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited April 2020

    stodge said:

    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Yes we all remember how popular John Major was after winning in 1992 - he had defied gravity, he had shown the Conservatives would always win. The locals had been good, Labour had a new leader but were going nowhere.

    Remind me how that worked out for your lot...
    Sir Keith Stormer is no Tony Blair though.....
    ...and for that we are eternally grateful. Hopefully vanity wars are off Keir's agenda.

    And he already has a knighthood. Something Tony is still whistling for.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    stodge said:

    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Yes we all remember how popular John Major was after winning in 1992 - he had defied gravity, he had shown the Conservatives would always win. The locals had been good, Labour had a new leader but were going nowhere.

    Remind me how that worked out for your lot...
    Sir Keith Stormer is no Tony Blair though.....
    Tony Blair didn’t become Labour leader until 1994
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,151
    Scott_xP said:
    Too many questions gone unanswered? So he's angry at the press questions being ineffective too?

    But it's not initself unreasonable. It might prove unreasonable in practice, depending if the questions are good, or just criticisms of things that are trying to be addressed and asking won't affect that, but if it is recalled it will be interesting to see the substance of any scrutiny. Because it is very easy to go through the motions when it comes to democratic scrutiny, in two different directions - one being the appearance of scrutiny without any tru effort, insight or engagement from the executive which makes it a token exercise, and then there's the mistake of confusing scrutiny with opposition (whilst it is a big part of opposition, scrutiny as an exercise is not purely about opposition, which is why backbenchers can play a good role in it).
    Gabs3 said:
    I don't buy it. Once the crisis is passed I don't see why their views would not return to norma.
  • The #banter is painful on here tonight
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Too many questions gone unanswered? So he's angry at the press questions being ineffective too?

    But it's not initself unreasonable. It might prove unreasonable in practice, depending if the questions are good, or just criticisms of things that are trying to be addressed and asking won't affect that, but if it is recalled it will be interesting to see the substance of any scrutiny. Because it is very easy to go through the motions when it comes to democratic scrutiny, in two different directions - one being the appearance of scrutiny without any tru effort, insight or engagement from the executive which makes it a token exercise, and then there's the mistake of confusing scrutiny with opposition (whilst it is a big part of opposition, scrutiny as an exercise is not purely about opposition, which is why backbenchers can play a good role in it).
    Gabs3 said:
    I don't buy it. Once the crisis is passed I don't see why their views would not return to norma.
    When do you think the crisis will be passed and especially the economic one
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,151

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Too many questions gone unanswered? So he's angry at the press questions being ineffective too?

    But it's not initself unreasonable. It might prove unreasonable in practice, depending if the questions are good, or just criticisms of things that are trying to be addressed and asking won't affect that, but if it is recalled it will be interesting to see the substance of any scrutiny. Because it is very easy to go through the motions when it comes to democratic scrutiny, in two different directions - one being the appearance of scrutiny without any tru effort, insight or engagement from the executive which makes it a token exercise, and then there's the mistake of confusing scrutiny with opposition (whilst it is a big part of opposition, scrutiny as an exercise is not purely about opposition, which is why backbenchers can play a good role in it).
    Gabs3 said:
    I don't buy it. Once the crisis is passed I don't see why their views would not return to norma.
    When do you think the crisis will be passed and especially the economic one
    It's a question of stages. Economically I assume we'll be dealing with the aftermath for decades, and intense problems for most of the next half decade. In terms of the immediate crisis one hopes we'll be in a quiter period by the summer, which would allow for some period of reflection and analysis.
  • Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    Blair and Cameron both led in the polls in the month after they were elected leader and they were the last 2 leaders to take their party from opposition into Government.

    Of course things could change but on first impressions it does suggest there is not going to be a Starmer landslide at the next general election even if he turns it round and scrapes into No 10
    Good grief, what a load of old crap.
    Indeed, so much so, I'm logging off
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    TGOHF666 said:
    What do we know about the polling company? Or is this a Daily Mail style online bullshit poll?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure why people think Labour would see a bounce in the polls.

    How many of the public even realize KS is the new leader , and the PM in hospital is bound to effect the polling to a degree .

    Blair and Cameron both led in the polls in the month after they were elected leader and they were the last 2 leaders to take their party from opposition into Government.

    Of course things could change but on first impressions it does suggest there is not going to be a Starmer landslide at the next general election even if he turns it round and scrapes into No 10
    Good grief, what a load of old crap.
    Yeah HYUFD is somewhat overegging it.


    But there is a serious point here. For the next few months, at until the autumn polictics as we 'know it' is suspended. Sir Keith won't have the honeymoon period, and the frothy 'getting to know you' photo spreads etc.

    Forget not makign a good first impression, he might not make any first impression, and for one as dull and as boring as him, that might not a good thing for labour.
    Starmer has better approval ratings than Corbyn ever got - by a country mile - and better than any Labour leader for 17 years. If the party is ever to get back into a competitive position having a credible offer at the top is a pre-requisite. This is not a sprint - especially given current circumstances.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    NHS saves Johnson's life.

    The next n number of NHS funding settlements are going to be interesting.

    "We saved your life PM, how about funding us to save someone else's?"

  • Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    NHS saves Johnson's life.

    The next n number of NHS funding settlements are going to be interesting.

    "We saved your life PM, how about funding us to save someone else's?"

    I have no doubt that Boris will lavish a lot of money on the NHS

    Indeed I expect to be his focus every day from now on
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_xP said:
    Because if there's one thing the coronavirus fears, it's an abundance of hot air...
    Can video conferencing really have 650 individual streams...?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    Gabs3 said:
    Not really that much of a surprise. But Italy has been an economic mess for years even before the Euro and nationalists there are blaming the EU for everything.

    Huge corruption hasn’t helped either and the bureaucracy is crazy there . I’ve never been a fan of the Euro which was always an accident waiting to happen.
    The EU is facing a nightmare decade.

    The only reason countries like Hungary are still inside is because of lavish EU subsidies pouring from west to East.

    That’s about to end, probably forever

    What then keeps a country like Hungary in the orbit of Brussels? Nothing. They can get the benefits of the SM in EEA
    The Euro has been the cause of most of the backlash against the EU . Ironic in that the proponents of that who wanted a more closer union have in effect caused more division .

    I’m an ardent supporter of the EU but really don’t like the Euro .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    eadric said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    What do we know about the polling company? Or is this a Daily Mail style online bullshit poll?
    The poll is legit

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1249089760720715780?s=21

    Extraordinary
    Only extraordinary in that Leave isn't streets ahead.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    NHS saves Johnson's life.

    The next n number of NHS funding settlements are going to be interesting.

    "We saved your life PM, how about funding us to save someone else's?"

    I have no doubt that Boris will lavish a lot of money on the NHS

    Indeed I expect to be his focus every day from now on.
    Yep - the NHS is going to be getting a lot more money. And they’ll have to look at social care, too. We’re all going to be paying a lot more tax. Interesting times.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    edited April 2020
    eadric said:

    nico67 said:

    Gabs3 said:
    Not really that much of a surprise. But Italy has been an economic mess for years even before the Euro and nationalists there are blaming the EU for everything.

    Huge corruption hasn’t helped either and the bureaucracy is crazy there . I’ve never been a fan of the Euro which was always an accident waiting to happen.
    The EU is facing a nightmare decade.

    The only reason countries like Hungary are still inside is because of lavish EU subsidies pouring from west to East.

    That’s about to end, probably forever

    What then keeps a country like Hungary in the orbit of Brussels? Nothing. They can get the benefits of the SM in EEA
    If the EU can't stop Hungary sliding into an authoritarian, anti-liberal sinkhole, then what is the purpose of the EU?
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    Parliament should not be suspended due to the coronavirus epidemic, and MPs should continue to attend Parliament in person. They are essential workers and they must continue to do their jobs, but there can be fewer of them in the Chamber. I doubt that most other democracies will be suspending their legislative assemblies. The Conservatives have form on this after all the prorogation tactics over Brexit last year. This move to suspend Parliament and civil liberties is too much like the Reichstag Fire Decree of 1933. I say don't do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    NHS saves Johnson's life.

    The next n number of NHS funding settlements are going to be interesting.

    "We saved your life PM, how about funding us to save someone else's?"

    I have no doubt that Boris will lavish a lot of money on the NHS

    Indeed I expect to be his focus every day from now on.
    Yep - the NHS is going to be getting a lot more money. And they’ll have to look at social care, too. We’re all going to be paying a lot more tax. Interesting times.

    And manufacturing. Ridiculously reliant on China for just about everything from iphones to basic medication. Big change coming.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    A message to the Entryists: You don't have exclusivity over the use of the word Socialist. We are all Socialists, comrades. Find your own word if you want to differentiate yourselves from the mainstream of the Labour Party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    NHS saves Johnson's life.

    The next n number of NHS funding settlements are going to be interesting.

    "We saved your life PM, how about funding us to save someone else's?"

    I have no doubt that Boris will lavish a lot of money on the NHS

    Indeed I expect to be his focus every day from now on.
    Yep - the NHS is going to be getting a lot more money. And they’ll have to look at social care, too. We’re all going to be paying a lot more tax. Interesting times.

    And manufacturing. Ridiculously reliant on China for just about everything from iphones to basic medication. Big change coming.
    We’re not all going to be paying more tax. Many of us will not have a job. So the rest of us will have to pay a lot more tax and some other government spending will be reduced.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    What do we know about the polling company? Or is this a Daily Mail style online bullshit poll?
    The poll is legit

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1249089760720715780?s=21

    Extraordinary
    Only extraordinary in that Leave isn't streets ahead.
    I find it very unlikely that the EU in 2030 will have 27 members, as now. The institution might have weathered Brexit, but coronavirus on top is a mortal blow.

    For non euro members it’s a no-brainer. If the monetary flows from rich to poor have ended, get out. Or demand a looser membership.

    The nightmare is being in the euro. That’s almost impossible to quit.
    Either there is massive reform or it will become a club of Germany, Benelux etc. Euro is a deflationary super weapon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Isn’t it amazing how the Coronavirus crisis seems to confirm pb’ers existing prejudices as if by magic.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    Jonathan said:

    Isn’t it amazing how the Coronavirus crisis seems to confirm pb’ers existing prejudices as if by magic.

    Well I've heard that Black Cats can carry the virus, but I'm not blaming the Mackems for spreading it.

    Night all.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    NHS saves Johnson's life.

    The next n number of NHS funding settlements are going to be interesting.

    "We saved your life PM, how about funding us to save someone else's?"

    I have no doubt that Boris will lavish a lot of money on the NHS

    Indeed I expect to be his focus every day from now on.
    Yep - the NHS is going to be getting a lot more money. And they’ll have to look at social care, too. We’re all going to be paying a lot more tax. Interesting times.

    And manufacturing. Ridiculously reliant on China for just about everything from iphones to basic medication. Big change coming.
    It's not China that's the problem, it's having all your eggs in one basket that is the issue.

    A ridiculous amount of stuff comes from a surprisingly small, if populus, area. You can draw a circle around Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the industrial parts of China, a huge amount of stuff is made within this area that is only 2-3% of the Earth's surface. I've long thought that it was a problem, and that typhoons, earthquakes, volcanoes and the like could seriously disrupt manufacturing that we depend on. I didn't consider pandemics.

    From a security point of view, in the broadest sense of the word, we want the manufacturing of essential goods to be geographically dispersed, even if it's not quite as economically efficient. It doesn't mean they have to be made in the UK, as we would still want other sources for things we make, just in case.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited April 2020
    stodge said:

    Conservative majority increases to 250 on UNS... :smile:

    Yes we all remember how popular John Major was after winning in 1992 - he had defied gravity, he had shown the Conservatives would always win. The locals had been good, Labour had a new leader but were going nowhere.

    Remind me how that worked out for your lot...
    4 months after the 1992 general election Labour under its new leader John Smith was already polling over 40% in 2 out of 4 polls that month and ahead of Major's Tories in half of them too


    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,567
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I've no objection to a recall of Parliament, but is there a particular purpose the parties have in mind or just as a general principle?
    I would suggest even just general principle is reason enough. We are a Parliamentary democracy and Parliament needs to be able to hold the executive to account as they have done in situations equally if not more serious than this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    glw said:

    Relieved that Boris is now well on the mend.

    Can I contradict Mr Harry Cole. Do not buy a paper it could well be infested with Coronavirus, infact 'stay at home'.

    Besides, The Mail is also quite dreadful.
    NHS saves Johnson's life.

    The next n number of NHS funding settlements are going to be interesting.

    "We saved your life PM, how about funding us to save someone else's?"

    I have no doubt that Boris will lavish a lot of money on the NHS

    Indeed I expect to be his focus every day from now on.
    Yep - the NHS is going to be getting a lot more money. And they’ll have to look at social care, too. We’re all going to be paying a lot more tax. Interesting times.

    And manufacturing. Ridiculously reliant on China for just about everything from iphones to basic medication. Big change coming.
    It's not China that's the problem, it's having all your eggs in one basket that is the issue.

    A ridiculous amount of stuff comes from a surprisingly small, if populus, area. You can draw a circle around Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the industrial parts of China, a huge amount of stuff is made within this area that is only 2-3% of the Earth's surface. I've long thought that it was a problem, and that typhoons, earthquakes, volcanoes and the like could seriously disrupt manufacturing that we depend on. I didn't consider pandemics.

    From a security point of view, in the broadest sense of the word, we want the manufacturing of essential goods to be geographically dispersed, even if it's not quite as economically efficient. It doesn't mean they have to be made in the UK, as we would still want other sources for things we make, just in case.
    We don't actually need most of the stuff that's made in those places.
This discussion has been closed.