I just have an open mind on it and am interested in hearing all points of view. On here we only have support for the lockdown or criticism it’s not strict enough, so posting alternative POVs is a good thing
Apart from my personal anxiety, I do see an argument for getting those non-Covid patients who need urgent surgery or treatment back into the medical system given we now have some facilities away from main hospitals or other temporary field hospitals.
If there is available capacity, I'd have no issue with it being used to help those people with chronic or urgent non-Covid conditions who need proper care and treatment.
That's NOT the same as saying the lock down should be ended, wholly or partially, at this time.
Yes but nobody knows anything about capacity or utilisation do they? And they don;t want you know in case you start asking awkward questions about why people with other serious conditions are not being treated.
Have you considered that as hospitals are dealing with increasing numbers of covid cases that introducing non infected patients might spread it more
On twitter there is an interesting discussion on ICU percentage usage.
The NHS used to publish this data, but very strangely it has stopped.
Underneath there are posts suggesting that after ramping up capacity, the tumbleweed is blowing through some of these facilities.
Hopefully.
The most positive thing the Government / NHS has achieved is a rapid increase in ICU capacity
Nobody should be critical of over provision of capacity
Yes but you don't know because they are not telling you. You have no idea. You don;t know if ICU usage is 10% or 90%. You are completely ignorant of that number aren;t you?
Ask yourself why.
No. YOU have no idea. Not a bloody clue.
According to the data that have been released, deaths in ICU represent only a small fraction of deaths from COVID in hospital.
The total number of deaths in hospital announced on 9 April was 7978.
Evidently less than half of even the hospital patients who had died had been admitted to ICU. Perhaps as few as 11%.
Half the patients admitted to ICU were 61 or younger. Three quarters were 69 or younger. This is a disease known to have the highest fatality rate in those in their 70s and above. If the ICUs are keeping their heads above water at all it is because of ruthless targeting of resources towards the younger patients with better prospects.
The idea that 90% of ICU capacity could be going unused is as offensive piece of ignorant fantasy as I've ever heard.
The news I heard yesterday from the head of NHS trusts was that current ICU usage is 86% of current capacity and 136% of pre covid capacity. Those figures seem fairly realistic to me given there will be issues with variation around the country which might mean there is a small amount of misalignment between need and usage.
So, what happens if the numbers are crunched and at some point in May it is revealed that the effects of the lockdown will harm or kill more people than the coronavirus itself? Everyone cares right now about people falling victim to Covid-19, because it is an immediate fatal event and is easily directly linked to this disaster; nobody presently gives a stuff about the sixty-year-old woman who's going to die next year because her routine breast screening was scrapped and her cancer wasn't spotted early enough, or about the fifteen-year-old boy who's going to kill himself in ten years' time because his prospects of a decent income and standard of living were ruined by an economic depression, and no-one beyond their immediate social circles will know or care when those personal tragedies eventually come to pass.
The decision to which the Government comes when armed with this new data - and especially if the numbers point towards the need to ease lockdown and deliberately sacrifice citizens for the greater long-term good - will be the acid test of whether or not it is truly committed to following scientific advice. We might, perhaps, have some sympathy for Boris Johnson for being the poor bugger who's going to end up having to make that choice.
First, apologies for snipping some of your excellent response.
It comes down to some simple questions: Is my life worth more than yours? Is my death more significant because in laying down my life I help GDP just a little by giving someone else a chance?
That's the logical end point of your argument - dress it up however you like but have we not lost something when we value all life simply in economic terms?
If we lose 50,000 lives to Coronavirus now, or 50,000 lives to suicides, other serious illnesses, poverty, etc, over the course of the next five years, you have a point.
Who is to judge which lives are more valuable? (Although, as you hint, if you want to be really hard headed about it, age and futue economic productivity should give you a clue).
However, if it turns out the economic consequences of the lockdown are an order of magnitude greater than the virus itself, say, 10,000 extra lives lost to the virus now if we ease restrictions, vs 100,000 lives lost later if we do not, the choice is obvious.
I fear the consequences of the virus are very "known" at this point whereas the depth and potential consequences of economic depression are very unknown and could be very severe indeed.
Good article, though with a fast-moving pandemic the risk is that a series of deputies go down in turn. For that matter, we need some contingency planning in case the next pandemic is worse and a whole bunch of Cabinet Ministers fall ill at the same time as the PM.
On a lighter note, thanks for the entertaining responses to my wine-and-omelette exploration. Tomorrow, I'm considering cooking pasta, also for the first time. I've got some "artisan Tortaglione" from Sainsbury (spirally things) which I bought when bargaining for 2-week isolation (all the cheap pasta had been panic-bought, but anyway I thought that pasta virginity should be broken with some good stuff), and some tomato sauce. Just boil them, right? There are rather a lot of them, I wonder if they'll keep if I eat half? (Where is Cyclefree?)
The wine, by the way, is Politically Correct. Given to me by a leftie friend, it's 19 Crimes red wine from Australia, based on a riot in 1904 against a rum tax. The rebels were punished with a variety of trumped-up charges, and with each bottle you can find one of the crimes inscribed on the cork. I have "Assault with attempt to rob". It's very good. (The wine, not the assault.)
CYCLEFREE’S ITALIAN COOKING CORNER - Episode 1
1. Get a Big Pan - pasta needs a lot of water to cook in. You are not boiling or poaching an egg. 2. Put some sea salt (or other salt if you don’t have the former) in the bottom. Not a sprinkle, mind. A good handful. 3. Fill with water. Bring to the boil. Properly - not simmering. 4. Put in your tortiglioni - 100 gms per person is about right, maybe a bit more if this is your only dish, a bit less if it’s a starter. 5. Stir - you don’t want the pasta to stick to the bottom or sides of the pan. 6. Meanwhile in a smaller pan heat your sauce. Also, grate your Parmesan. 7. The instructions on the packet will tell you for how long the pasta should be cooked. Al dente is the aim. A bit of bite but not chewy. 8. Drain using a colander and then - and this is IMPORTANT - put in a serving bowl and immediately mix in the sauce covering all the pasta. None of this little dribble on top in the middle. Ruins the pasta and breaks my heart. You can simply mix it all together in the pan in which the pasta was cooked, which will be warm.
Sit down with your Politically Correct wine and enjoy!
The decision to which the Government comes when armed with this new data - and especially if the numbers point towards the need to ease lockdown and deliberately sacrifice citizens for the greater long-term good - will be the acid test of whether or not it is truly committed to following scientific advice. We might, perhaps, have some sympathy for Boris Johnson for being the poor bugger who's going to end up having to make that choice.
What are they going to do to get those people are being sacrificed to acquiesce? Force thenm out of their homes? Refuse them financial assistance (when others have been given it. to stop them going out)? This is where the freedom questions spins around, those who are desperate to not be under a lockdown seem awfully keen to stop others from being so.
I would expect that the easing of lockdown, when it comes, will be gradual and will probably begin with the re-opening of discretionary retail, followed by the schools. The hospitality industry will probably be shuttered for many months and will bear the brunt of the longer-term economic damage, because even when it is allowed to start back up many businesses will already have failed, and those that survive will be made to implement social distancing protocols which will substantially reduce the number of customers they can serve at any one time.
You may not know but I'm a teacher (independent school) and have explained already how schools are a significant issue. First, they are the sign that lockdown is over, the massive change in travel and behaviour can only be countenanced when people are also told that there is no need for social distancing.
Secondly, your two openieng suggestions do not cohere; shops open and reduce customers, okay, fine, sounds pretty safe. Schools open where there will be no social distancing and where the virus that remains can, and will be spread between students and then to the staff and their parents? Makes no sense whatsoever. If I'm forced back whilst social distancing is still in place I won't do so unless I am given PPE and that all students right down to nursery (I teach the whole range, 4-18) are made to stay two metres away from each other and staff. Sound possible?
I made the mistake of interpenetrating their numbers like that yesterday and got an earful on here.
Sweden like us report a lot of there deaths days later, I think that the 17 deaths will be died yesterday and reported today, but there will be others reported in next few days and relating to today.
That sead, Sweden does seem to have reached a Plato, early to say for defiant.
From the article: "However, trends in the data released by the country's Public Health Authority show that confirmed deaths and cases fall over the weekend before rising again, because of what is believed to be a delay in reporting."
There's something else important that we need to remember with respect to the duration of the lockdown, beyond the issues both of the necessity to maintain suppression and of public consent (an important contributor to the latter of which is tested by this poll.)
We would expect, and indeed the Government and its advisors have confirmed as much in recent daily briefings, that work is going on behind the scenes to quantify the likely impact of the lockdown on public health - both directly through the deferment and cancellation of treatments and appointments, due to capacity pressures created by the coronavirus, and indirectly through the consequences of the lockdown measures, and the longer-term impact on incomes and rates of poverty that they are bound to create.
So, what happens if the numbers are crunched and at some point in May it is revealed that the effects of the lockdown will harm or kill more people than the coronavirus itself? Everyone cares right now about people falling victim to Covid-19, because it is an immediate fatal event and is easily directly linked to this disaster; nobody presently gives a stuff about the sixty-year-old woman who's going to die next year because her routine breast screening was scrapped and her cancer wasn't spotted early enough, or about the fifteen-year-old boy who's going to kill himself in ten years' time because his prospects of a decent income and standard of living were ruined by an economic depression, and no-one beyond their immediate social circles will know or care when those personal tragedies eventually come to pass.
Basically, if the estimates suggest that we can save 100,000 lives over five years by easing restrictions in such a way that 10,000 extra people who would otherwise have dodged the coronavirus bullet will be struck down by it, mostly within the next few months, then logically those particular restrictions ought to be eased. If, on the other hand, those numbers are reversed then they ought not to be.
The decision to which the Government comes when armed with this new data - and especially if the numbers point towards the need to ease lockdown and deliberately sacrifice citizens for the greater long-term good - will be the acid test of whether or not it is truly committed to following scientific advice. We might, perhaps, have some sympathy for Boris Johnson for being the poor bugger who's going to end up having to make that choice.
A lot of huge “ifs” there, though. Bearing in mind that CV-19 is one with exponential growth at the slightest opportunity, as well, those ifs look very wobbly.
More likely the outcome we all don’t want to accept but is so very likely: there will be considerable and unpleasant costs (economically and socially) from the lockdown. Yet far, far worse costs from letting up too much or too soon.
It’s tied up with loss aversion, and we’re all going to try to come up with what-ifs to try to persuade us there’s a more painless route out... but we’re almost certainly gonna have to select one or the other of the painful ones, and one’s definitely the most painful (but the one that tempts us most back to “things can be back the way they were... can’t they?”)
following on from MM's moth announcements, a list of the birds I have seen or heard from my property since the lockdown started. Anything seen or heard when I was outside my bounds had been excluded
Blackbird Blackcap Wren Robin Blue tit Great tit Long tailed tit Song Thrush Chaffinch Goldcrest Greenfinch Chiffchaff House sparrow Swallow Starling Pied Wagtail Magpie Rook Carrion crow Pheasant Partridge Canada goose Greylag goose Red Kite Buzzard Kestrel Mallard (Actually this is a pet) Woodpigeon Collared dove Tawny Owl Domestic Fowl Running Ducks
There are a few more but I lack the skill to identify their calls although I am getting better at that.
Nice list! A few there that we've not had in our garden, or seen doing a fly-past.
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
I think that LOTO Priti would be an excellent idea. She would keep Labour in power for a second term.
She might but she would also be combative and panic leftwingers to keep her out of No 10, especially if Starmer got into Government and then proved unpopular as PM
On twitter there is an interesting discussion on ICU percentage usage.
The NHS used to publish this data, but very strangely it has stopped.
Underneath there are posts suggesting that after ramping up capacity, the tumbleweed is blowing through some of these facilities.
Hopefully.
The most positive thing the Government / NHS has achieved is a rapid increase in ICU capacity
Nobody should be critical of over provision of capacity
Yes but you don't know because they are not telling you. You have no idea. You don;t know if ICU usage is 10% or 90%. You are completely ignorant of that number aren;t you?
Ask yourself why.
No. YOU have no idea. Not a bloody clue.
According to the data that have been released, deaths in ICU represent only a small fraction of deaths from COVID in hospital.
The total number of deaths in hospital announced on 9 April was 7978.
Evidently less than half of even the hospital patients who had died had been admitted to ICU. Perhaps as few as 11%.
Half the patients admitted to ICU were 61 or younger. Three quarters were 69 or younger. This is a disease known to have the highest fatality rate in those in their 70s and above. If the ICUs are keeping their heads above water at all it is because of ruthless targeting of resources towards the younger patients with better prospects.
The idea that 90% of ICU capacity could be going unused is as offensive piece of ignorant fantasy as I've ever heard.
The news I heard yesterday from the head of NHS trusts was that current ICU usage is 86% of current capacity and 136% of pre covid capacity. Those figures seem fairly realistic to me given there will be issues with variation around the country which might mean there is a small amount of misalignment between need and usage.
They seem realistic to me as well. And I don't draw much comfort from the fact that they seem to be plateauing (how could it be otherwise if they are nearly at 100%?) Particularly as there are so many hospital patients dying without even having been admitted to intensive care units.
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
Even in a lockdown situation, uninfected people will come into contact with the virus, albeit at a much smaller scale.
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
I think that LOTO Priti would be an excellent idea. She would keep Labour in power for a second term.
Patel being LOTO to Starmer as PM would likely lead to Labour putting forward a rejoin manifesto for Starmer's second GE campaign. If leavers want to us to definitely stay out of the EU for the foreseeable future, they need to avoid doing what Labour did and not elect their own version of Corbyn.
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
How do the daily testing figures compare?
I don't think the number of tests is relevant. If you go to china now they put you in quarantine for 14 gays, Italians have been in effective quarantine forc32 days yet are still getting infected in huge numbers
Interesting article David - but I'm sorry we can't blame the 'system' for this. Raab is the first secretary of state. What does that position exist for other than to stand in for the PM? It should have been perfectly possible for the cabinet to fall behind Raab as acting PM - or someone else if they can agree. We're paying the price for having a feeble cabinet of yes men. That was the plan. Everything run through No. 10 by Cummings.
So, what happens if the numbers are crunched and at some point in May it is revealed that the effects of the lockdown will harm or kill more people than the coronavirus itself? Everyone cares right now about people falling victim to Covid-19, because it is an immediate fatal event and is easily directly linked to this disaster; nobody presently gives a stuff about the sixty-year-old woman who's going to die next year because her routine breast screening was scrapped and her cancer wasn't spotted early enough, or about the fifteen-year-old boy who's going to kill himself in ten years' time because his prospects of a decent income and standard of living were ruined by an economic depression, and no-one beyond their immediate social circles will know or care when those personal tragedies eventually come to pass.
The decision to which the Government comes when armed with this new data - and especially if the numbers point towards the need to ease lockdown and deliberately sacrifice citizens for the greater long-term good - will be the acid test of whether or not it is truly committed to following scientific advice. We might, perhaps, have some sympathy for Boris Johnson for being the poor bugger who's going to end up having to make that choice.
First, apologies for snipping some of your excellent response.
It comes down to some simple questions: Is my life worth more than yours? Is my death more significant because in laying down my life I help GDP just a little by giving someone else a chance?
That's the logical end point of your argument - dress it up however you like but have we not lost something when we value all life simply in economic terms?
If we lose 50,000 lives to Coronavirus now, or 50,000 lives to suicides, other serious illnesses, poverty, etc, over the course of the next five years, you have a point.
Who is to judge which lives are more valuable? (Although, as you hint, if you want to be really hard headed about it, age and futue economic productivity should give you a clue).
However, if it turns out the economic consequences of the lockdown are an order of magnitude greater than the virus itself, say, 10,000 extra lives lost to the virus now if we ease restrictions, vs 100,000 lives lost later if we do not, the choice is obvious.
I fear the consequences of the virus are very "known" at this point whereas the depth and potential consequences of economic depression are very unknown and could be very severe indeed.
If they're "very known", what are they?
Well, you have an absolute ceiling - circa 500k deaths, taken from the imperial study. The let it rip.
The study done by the London School of infectious diseases is more nuanced, looking at the effects of varying lengths of lockdown.
Ideally you would want to be somewhere in between the 500k and where we are now, e.g. a maximum 100k controlled deaths over the course of the next year or two, in exchange for a gradual reopening of the economy and gradual herd immunity.
What worries me most is the way job losses in America, which obviously lacks our welfare system or furlough scheme, are rising exponentially.
My personal fear is that once you get beyond a certain point, you invite systems failure - people defaulting on loans, banks either failing or being propped up with funny money that leads to hyperinflation, a cycle of economic chaos that's difficult to break.
I think that LOTO Priti would be an excellent idea. She would keep Labour in power for a second term.
She might but she would also be combative and panic leftwingers to keep her out of No 10, especially if Starmer got into Government and then proved unpopular as PM
Isn't that a similar argument as made by the Soviet side of Labour in defence of Corbyn?
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
How do the daily testing figures compare?
I don't think the number of tests is relevant. If you go to china now they put you in quarantine for 14 gays, Italians have been in effective quarantine forc32 days yet are still getting infected in huge numbers
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
How do the daily testing figures compare?
I don't think the number of tests is relevant. If you go to china now they put you in quarantine for 14 gays, Italians have been in effective quarantine forc32 days yet are still getting infected in huge numbers
Surely it is? If they are testing ten times as many as a month ago that's an improvement.
I'm head talk from those in the know of restrictions on non essential home deliveries. Make of that what you will. Does seem to contradict the noise coming from Fraser Nelson and co.
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
How do the daily testing figures compare?
I don't think the number of tests is relevant. If you go to china now they put you in quarantine for 14 gays, Italians have been in effective quarantine forc32 days yet are still getting infected in huge numbers
There's something else important that we need to remember with respect to the duration of the lockdown, beyond the issues both of the necessity to maintain suppression and of public consent (an important contributor to the latter of which is tested by this poll.)
We would expect, and indeed the Government and its advisors have confirmed as much in recent daily briefings, that work is going on behind the scenes to quantify the likely impact of the lockdown on public health - both directly through the deferment and cancellation of treatments and appointments, due to capacity pressures created by the coronavirus, and indirectly through the consequences of the lockdown measures, and the longer-term impact on incomes and rates of poverty that they are bound to create.
So, what happens if the numbers are crunched and at some point in May it is revealed that the effects of the lockdown will harm or kill more people than the coronavirus itself? Everyone cares right now about people falling victim to Covid-19, because it is an immediate fatal event and is easily directly linked to this disaster; nobody presently gives a stuff about the sixty-year-old woman who's going to die next year because her routine breast screening was scrapped and her cancer wasn't spotted early enough, or about the fifteen-year-old boy who's going to kill himself in ten years' time because his prospects of a decent income and standard of living were ruined by an economic depression, and no-one beyond their immediate social circles will know or care when those personal tragedies eventually come to pass.
Basically, if the estimates suggest that we can save 100,000 lives over five years by easing restrictions in such a way that 10,000 extra people who would otherwise have dodged the coronavirus bullet will be struck down by it, mostly within the next few months, then logically those particular restrictions ought to be eased. If, on the other hand, those numbers are reversed then they ought not to be.
The decision to which the Government comes when armed with this new data - and especially if the numbers point towards the need to ease lockdown and deliberately sacrifice citizens for the greater long-term good - will be the acid test of whether or not it is truly committed to following scientific advice. We might, perhaps, have some sympathy for Boris Johnson for being the poor bugger who's going to end up having to make that choice.
A lot of huge “ifs” there, though. Bearing in mind that CV-19 is one with exponential growth at the slightest opportunity, as well, those ifs look very wobbly.
More likely the outcome we all don’t want to accept but is so very likely: there will be considerable and unpleasant costs (economically and socially) from the lockdown. Yet far, far worse costs from letting up too much or too soon.
It’s tied up with loss aversion, and we’re all going to try to come up with what-ifs to try to persuade us there’s a more painless route out... but we’re almost certainly gonna have to select one or the other of the painful ones, and one’s definitely the most painful (but the one that tempts us most back to “things can be back the way they were... can’t they?”)
There are obviously no easy routes out of this situation. The main question is, therefore, which is the least damaging?
For so long as full lockdown causes less harm in the long run than starting to dial back then it should stay; once it can reasonably be supposed to cause more harm then it should be relaxed. The rest is noise.
I think that LOTO Priti would be an excellent idea. She would keep Labour in power for a second term.
She might but she would also be combative and panic leftwingers to keep her out of No 10, especially if Starmer got into Government and then proved unpopular as PM
Isn't that a similar argument as made by the Soviet side of Labour in defence of Corbyn?
It is but as Thatcher proved while UK voters might vote for a hard right leader to clean up a Labour government's mess as Corbyn and Foot proved they are unlikely to vote for a hard left leader
I think that LOTO Priti would be an excellent idea. She would keep Labour in power for a second term.
She might but she would also be combative and panic leftwingers to keep her out of No 10, especially if Starmer got into Government and then proved unpopular as PM
Isn't that a similar argument as made by the Soviet side of Labour in defence of Corbyn?
It is but as Thatcher proved while UK voters might vote for a hard right leader to clean up a Labour government's mess as Corbyn proved they are unlikely to vote for a hard left leader
Hard right, Mrs Thatch' ? Compared to Priti she was a raving Trot!
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
How do the daily testing figures compare?
I don't think the number of tests is relevant. If you go to china now they put you in quarantine for 14 gays, Italians have been in effective quarantine forc32 days yet are still getting infected in huge numbers
So 32 days into Italy's lockdown there were 4700 new cases today. I know I keep saying this but that seems such a high figure that long into a lockdown
Imagine that three weeks ago the Italians had been reporting 50,000 new cases a day.
If we'd gotten down to sub-5,000 from 50,000 everyone would be proclaiming the lockdown a huge success.
Well, real daily infections number just prior to lockdown were probably at least 50,000. It's just that the amount of testing was tiny. Italy was doing sub-5,000 tests a day, and getting (at peak) 56% of those tested with the virus. When you remember that about a third of people with the disease get false negatives, that means that the true proportion of those tested was probably close to 75%.
Italy is now doing more than 50,000 tests per day, and just 7% of them are coming out positive.
following on from MM's moth announcements, a list of the birds I have seen or heard from my property since the lockdown started. Anything seen or heard when I was outside my bounds had been excluded
Blackbird Blackcap Wren Robin Blue tit Great tit Long tailed tit Song Thrush Chaffinch Goldcrest Greenfinch Chiffchaff House sparrow Swallow Starling Pied Wagtail Magpie Rook Carrion crow Pheasant Partridge Canada goose Greylag goose Red Kite Buzzard Kestrel Mallard (Actually this is a pet) Woodpigeon Collared dove Tawny Owl Domestic Fowl Running Ducks
There are a few more but I lack the skill to identify their calls although I am getting better at that.
Best guy on bird calls I ever birded with was a German particle phycisist at Oxford.
He also managed the most brilliant identification balls-up when we went to twitch a Siberian Red-flanked Bluetail in Dorset.
We were all watching the bird. He was not able to get on it.
I'm head talk from those in the know of restrictions on non essential home deliveries. Make of that what you will. Does seem to contradict the noise coming from Fraser Nelson and co.
Our son's future mother in law was stopped by the police on Llandudno Promenade this morning and asked where she was going and her post code.
She said Asda and she has a local post code so no problem
Negatives: sunburn and far too much weeding done. We’ve long run out of garden waste space.
Positives: my other half’s cooking and the espresso martinis are now in production.
Net balance: positive.
You know those Great Escape trousers we were talking about earlier? Well, on your next daily walks, you will have to deposit a little of your garden waste everywhere around the village.
Considering The Guardian are always pleading poverty, blowing the budget on irrelevant opinion polling (I would give the Government a decent rating at present, I might even say if there was a election tomorrow they would get my vote. I doubt I will be voting for them in 2024 however) seems particularly profligate.
following on from MM's moth announcements, a list of the birds I have seen or heard from my property since the lockdown started. Anything seen or heard when I was outside my bounds had been excluded
Blackbird Blackcap Wren Robin Blue tit Great tit Long tailed tit Song Thrush Chaffinch Goldcrest Greenfinch Chiffchaff House sparrow Swallow Starling Pied Wagtail Magpie Rook Carrion crow Pheasant Partridge Canada goose Greylag goose Red Kite Buzzard Kestrel Mallard (Actually this is a pet) Woodpigeon Collared dove Tawny Owl Domestic Fowl Running Ducks
There are a few more but I lack the skill to identify their calls although I am getting better at that.
Best guy on bird calls I ever birded with was a German particle phycisist at Oxford.
He also managed the most brilliant identificcation balls-up when we went to twitch a Siberian Red-flanked Bluetail in Dorset.
We were all watching the bird. He was not able to get on it.
"Where iz it in relation to ze robin?"
"It is the bloody "robin"...."
Fair play to all twitchers - I think I was put off at primary school (pre- national Curriculem ) when my teacher in the last 2 years was a twitcher and made us do "bird -work" on a Friday . After a few sniggers it was bloody boring for a kid who could not stand nature
The public have seen through the media and even BJO (maybe)
Its a Marathon nor a sprint
I think you celebrate too early
If you cant be popular when your leader is in ICU .......
I have never celebrated this evil virus or the present position
However, you have been proclaiming the UK as the biggest failure in dealing with this for some time now and I have consistently posted that it is far too early to declare who has or has not been successful and I maintain this is months or even years before any clarification of how covid was eventually and hopefully vanquished and who took the best actions
following on from MM's moth announcements, a list of the birds I have seen or heard from my property since the lockdown started. Anything seen or heard when I was outside my bounds had been excluded
Blackbird Blackcap Wren Robin Blue tit Great tit Long tailed tit Song Thrush Chaffinch Goldcrest Greenfinch Chiffchaff House sparrow Swallow Starling Pied Wagtail Magpie Rook Carrion crow Pheasant Partridge Canada goose Greylag goose Red Kite Buzzard Kestrel Mallard (Actually this is a pet) Woodpigeon Collared dove Tawny Owl Domestic Fowl Running Ducks
There are a few more but I lack the skill to identify their calls although I am getting better at that.
Best guy on bird calls I ever birded with was a German particle phycisist at Oxford.
He also managed the most brilliant identificcation balls-up when we went to twitch a Siberian Red-flanked Bluetail in Dorset.
We were all watching the bird. He was not able to get on it.
"Where iz it in relation to ze robin?"
"It is the bloody "robin"...."
Fair play to all twitchers - I think I was put off at primary school (pre- national Curriculem ) when my teacher in the last 2 years was a twitcher and made us do "bird -work" on a Friday . After a few sniggers it was bloody boring for a kid who could not stand nature
I got out of twitching because I had largely run out of new birds to see that didn't involve chartering a plane to some exotic Scottish island. (Nearly 500 species of bird seen in the UK).
But I do feel sorry for those who are still in the game. There must be no bunch of people suffering more in the lock down than those hearing of an exotic Lark that would ordinarily be easily attained.....!
Considering The Guardian are always pleading poverty, blowing the budget on irrelevant opinion polling (I would give the Government a decent rating at present, I might even say if there was a election tomorrow they would get my vote. I doubt I will be voting for them in 2024 however) seems particularly profligate.
i doubt they commission individual polls, they will have a contract for the next year or two for a set number of polls at a fixed price that will be hard to get out of.
It's the situation a lot of companies find themselves in right now. They have to either pay their suppliers for something they don't need any more, or face litigation for breaking the contract, or severely pissing off that supplier if they need them again after the crisis.
Ironically it is easier to lay off your own staff (one to three months notice at most) than it is to get out of expensive service contracts. So staff get cut faster even though they're more useful and a cheaper in house resource.
I think that LOTO Priti would be an excellent idea. She would keep Labour in power for a second term.
She might but she would also be combative and panic leftwingers to keep her out of No 10, especially if Starmer got into Government and then proved unpopular as PM
Isn't that a similar argument as made by the Soviet side of Labour in defence of Corbyn?
It is but as Thatcher proved while UK voters might vote for a hard right leader to clean up a Labour government's mess as Corbyn proved they are unlikely to vote for a hard left leader
Hard right, Mrs Thatch' ? Compared to Priti she was a raving Trot!
Not to mention that as Mrs Thatcher herself saw things, she was cleaning up Ted Heath's mess.
I think that LOTO Priti would be an excellent idea. She would keep Labour in power for a second term.
She might but she would also be combative and panic leftwingers to keep her out of No 10, especially if Starmer got into Government and then proved unpopular as PM
Isn't that a similar argument as made by the Soviet side of Labour in defence of Corbyn?
It is but as Thatcher proved while UK voters might vote for a hard right leader to clean up a Labour government's mess as Corbyn proved they are unlikely to vote for a hard left leader
Hard right, Mrs Thatch' ? Compared to Priti she was a raving Trot!
following on from MM's moth announcements, a list of the birds I have seen or heard from my property since the lockdown started. Anything seen or heard when I was outside my bounds had been excluded
Blackbird Blackcap Wren Robin Blue tit Great tit Long tailed tit Song Thrush Chaffinch Goldcrest Greenfinch Chiffchaff House sparrow Swallow Starling Pied Wagtail Magpie Rook Carrion crow Pheasant Partridge Canada goose Greylag goose Red Kite Buzzard Kestrel Mallard (Actually this is a pet) Woodpigeon Collared dove Tawny Owl Domestic Fowl Running Ducks
There are a few more but I lack the skill to identify their calls although I am getting better at that.
Best guy on bird calls I ever birded with was a German particle phycisist at Oxford.
He also managed the most brilliant identificcation balls-up when we went to twitch a Siberian Red-flanked Bluetail in Dorset.
We were all watching the bird. He was not able to get on it.
"Where iz it in relation to ze robin?"
"It is the bloody "robin"...."
Fair play to all twitchers - I think I was put off at primary school (pre- national Curriculem ) when my teacher in the last 2 years was a twitcher and made us do "bird -work" on a Friday . After a few sniggers it was bloody boring for a kid who could not stand nature
I got out of twitching because I had largely run out of new birds to see that didn't involve chartering a plane to some exotic Scottish island. (Nearly 500 species of bird seen in the UK).
But I do feel sorry for those who are still in the game. There must be no bunch of people suffering more in the lock down than those hearing of an exotic Lark that would ordinarily be easily attained.....!
Police have been active protecting Ring Ouzels from twitchers.
I wonder what the press are going to do in response to this?
Take a look at Electoral Calculus and see how the Tories would in an election based on polling figures LESS than those. Will give you an idea of how far Labour has to pull back. It is extraordinary and explains why some left-wingers are desperate at the moment.
I wonder what the press are going to do in response to this?
Cry
I am largely supportive of the Government over Covid-19, there were some early errors but by and large they have done OK.
If I can use 'pass the parcel' as an analogy, I wouldn't want to be the party of government when the music stopped.
I cannot see the economic carnage that will follow Covid-19 making too many incumbent governments popular.
Boris and Rishi may play absolute blinders, but the post Covid-19 train wreck could well be out of their control. Deserved or not, if voters start to look for scapegoats to blame for their financial woes, it will be incumbent governments the world over that will suffer.
None of these polls matter - the first test, subject to a by-election, will be the round of local elections next May which will include both this year's contest and the County Council contests which were last fought in 2017 when Theresa May was at the height of her popularity.
I wonder what the press are going to do in response to this?
Cry
I am largely supportive of the Government over Covid-19, there were some early errors but by and large they have done OK.
If I can use 'pass the parcel' as an analogy, I wouldn't want to be the party of government when the music stopped.
I cannot see the economic carnage that will follow Covid-19 making too many incumbent governments popular.
Boris and Rishi may play absolute blinders, but the post Covid-19 train wreck could well be out of their control. Deserved or not, if voters start to look for scapegoats to blame for their financial woes, it will be incumbent governments the world over that will suffer.
I am largely supportive of the Government over Covid-19, there were some early errors but by and large they have done OK.
If I can use 'pass the parcel' as an analogy, I wouldn't want to be the party of government when the music stopped.
I cannot see the economic carnage that will follow Covid-19 making too many incumbent governments popular.
Boris and Rishi may play absolute blinders, but the post Covid-19 train wreck could well be out of their control. Deserved or not, if voters start to look for scapegoats to blame for their financial woes, it will be incumbent governments the world over that will suffer.
Yes, one day it may be LAB 55 CON 29 and we'll see who enjoys that poll.
following on from MM's moth announcements, a list of the birds I have seen or heard from my property since the lockdown started. Anything seen or heard when I was outside my bounds had been excluded
Blackbird Blackcap Wren Robin Blue tit Great tit Long tailed tit Song Thrush Chaffinch Goldcrest Greenfinch Chiffchaff House sparrow Swallow Starling Pied Wagtail Magpie Rook Carrion crow Pheasant Partridge Canada goose Greylag goose Red Kite Buzzard Kestrel Mallard (Actually this is a pet) Woodpigeon Collared dove Tawny Owl Domestic Fowl Running Ducks
There are a few more but I lack the skill to identify their calls although I am getting better at that.
Best guy on bird calls I ever birded with was a German particle phycisist at Oxford.
He also managed the most brilliant identificcation balls-up when we went to twitch a Siberian Red-flanked Bluetail in Dorset.
We were all watching the bird. He was not able to get on it.
"Where iz it in relation to ze robin?"
"It is the bloody "robin"...."
Fair play to all twitchers - I think I was put off at primary school (pre- national Curriculem ) when my teacher in the last 2 years was a twitcher and made us do "bird -work" on a Friday . After a few sniggers it was bloody boring for a kid who could not stand nature
I got out of twitching because I had largely run out of new birds to see that didn't involve chartering a plane to some exotic Scottish island. (Nearly 500 species of bird seen in the UK).
But I do feel sorry for those who are still in the game. There must be no bunch of people suffering more in the lock down than those hearing of an exotic Lark that would ordinarily be easily attained.....!
Police have been active protecting Ring Ouzels from twitchers.
Any birder going to twitch a Ring Ousel must have SERIOUS cabin fever. A regular passage migrant across the country as they head for their moorland breeding grounds...not a bird you would normally fire up the Quattro for.
I am largely supportive of the Government over Covid-19, there were some early errors but by and large they have done OK.
If I can use 'pass the parcel' as an analogy, I wouldn't want to be the party of government when the music stopped.
I cannot see the economic carnage that will follow Covid-19 making too many incumbent governments popular.
Boris and Rishi may play absolute blinders, but the post Covid-19 train wreck could well be out of their control. Deserved or not, if voters start to look for scapegoats to blame for their financial woes, it will be incumbent governments the world over that will suffer.
Yes, one day it may be LAB 55 CON 29 and we'll see who enjoys that poll.
If it happens, it might be sooner than PB Tories dare to think.
To be honest, my priority is not worrying about the stripe of the government of the day. I am more interested in my family unit surviving Covid-19 and its financial aftershock.
As far as I am concerned, if it meant this catastrophe would stop tomorrow I would be quite content to gift the Conservatives 50 years of landslide governments.
I wonder if anyone has given Sir Keith a list of the seats he'd lose on those numbers?
Those figures don't suggest any upsurge in support for Sir Keir joining the government. Nor do they suggest the critics of the government's response to the virus are in tune with the public. The public knows the government is doing its best in extremely difficult circumstances and that many of those shrieking hysterically from the sidelines are clueless.
It's easy to shriek more tests more beds more PPE. Much more difficult to make it happen instantly as the public understands.
The main thing you have to remember here is that, while vocal, a great deal of the criticism is really rather witless. So, yeah, I think they're going to TRY HARDER
following on from MM's moth announcements, a list of the birds I have seen or heard from my property since the lockdown started. Anything seen or heard when I was outside my bounds had been excluded
Blackbird Blackcap Wren Robin Blue tit Great tit Long tailed tit Song Thrush Chaffinch Goldcrest Greenfinch Chiffchaff House sparrow Swallow Starling Pied Wagtail Magpie Rook Carrion crow Pheasant Partridge Canada goose Greylag goose Red Kite Buzzard Kestrel Mallard (Actually this is a pet) Woodpigeon Collared dove Tawny Owl Domestic Fowl Running Ducks
There are a few more but I lack the skill to identify their calls although I am getting better at that.
Best guy on bird calls I ever birded with was a German particle phycisist at Oxford.
He also managed the most brilliant identificcation balls-up when we went to twitch a Siberian Red-flanked Bluetail in Dorset.
We were all watching the bird. He was not able to get on it.
"Where iz it in relation to ze robin?"
"It is the bloody "robin"...."
Fair play to all twitchers - I think I was put off at primary school (pre- national Curriculem ) when my teacher in the last 2 years was a twitcher and made us do "bird -work" on a Friday . After a few sniggers it was bloody boring for a kid who could not stand nature
I got out of twitching because I had largely run out of new birds to see that didn't involve chartering a plane to some exotic Scottish island. (Nearly 500 species of bird seen in the UK).
But I do feel sorry for those who are still in the game. There must be no bunch of people suffering more in the lock down than those hearing of an exotic Lark that would ordinarily be easily attained.....!
Police have been active protecting Ring Ouzels from twitchers.
Any birder going to twitch a Ring Ousel must have SERIOUS cabin fever. A regular passage migrant across the country as they head for their moorland breeding grounds...not a bird you would normally fire up the Quattro for.
Warning to rabbit lovers, the link might cause a spillage of coffee.
Saw a gull pick up and fly off with a rabbit at North Haven, Skomer, The gull was mobbed and it dropped its prey, I have no idea if other gulls finished it off.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210677/Sweden-records-17-deaths-coronavirus-lowest-daily-rise-fortnight.html
1. Get a Big Pan - pasta needs a lot of water to cook in. You are not boiling or poaching an egg.
2. Put some sea salt (or other salt if you don’t have the former) in the bottom. Not a sprinkle, mind. A good handful.
3. Fill with water. Bring to the boil. Properly - not simmering.
4. Put in your tortiglioni - 100 gms per person is about right, maybe a bit more if this is your only dish, a bit less if it’s a starter.
5. Stir - you don’t want the pasta to stick to the bottom or sides of the pan.
6. Meanwhile in a smaller pan heat your sauce. Also, grate your Parmesan.
7. The instructions on the packet will tell you for how long the pasta should be cooked. Al dente is the aim. A bit of bite but not chewy.
8. Drain using a colander and then - and this is IMPORTANT - put in a serving bowl and immediately mix in the sauce covering all the pasta. None of this little dribble on top in the middle. Ruins the pasta and breaks my heart. You can simply mix it all together in the pan in which the pasta was cooked, which will be warm.
Sit down with your Politically Correct wine and enjoy!
Buon appetito!
Was it there, but difficulties with distribution?
Did we just not have enough and with the world clamouring for it too found it hard to replenish stocks?
Did the politicians / bureaucrats waste that period of time where it was obvious this was coming but before it hit us?
We know that problems around PPE have been reported around the world so we are not unique in this.
But "lessons have been learnt" really will not be good enough if fault is found
Secondly, your two openieng suggestions do not cohere; shops open and reduce customers, okay, fine, sounds pretty safe. Schools open where there will be no social distancing and where the virus that remains can, and will be spread between students and then to the staff and their parents? Makes no sense whatsoever. If I'm forced back whilst social distancing is still in place I won't do so unless I am given PPE and that all students right down to nursery (I teach the whole range, 4-18) are made to stay two metres away from each other and staff. Sound possible?
Sweden like us report a lot of there deaths days later, I think that the 17 deaths will be died yesterday and reported today, but there will be others reported in next few days and relating to today.
That sead, Sweden does seem to have reached a Plato, early to say for defiant.
Jeremy Vine
@theJeremyVine
That number again: 300,034,974,000
(5 tests each)
"However, trends in the data released by the country's Public Health Authority show that confirmed deaths and cases fall over the weekend before rising again, because of what is believed to be a delay in reporting."
Bearing in mind that CV-19 is one with exponential growth at the slightest opportunity, as well, those ifs look very wobbly.
More likely the outcome we all don’t want to accept but is so very likely: there will be considerable and unpleasant costs (economically and socially) from the lockdown. Yet far, far worse costs from letting up too much or too soon.
It’s tied up with loss aversion, and we’re all going to try to come up with what-ifs to try to persuade us there’s a more painless route out... but we’re almost certainly gonna have to select one or the other of the painful ones, and one’s definitely the most painful (but the one that tempts us most back to “things can be back the way they were... can’t they?”)
Of course, in the UK we never stopped non-essential workers from going to work.
The study done by the London School of infectious diseases is more nuanced, looking at the effects of varying lengths of lockdown.
Ideally you would want to be somewhere in between the 500k and where we are now, e.g. a maximum 100k controlled deaths over the course of the next year or two, in exchange for a gradual reopening of the economy and gradual herd immunity.
What worries me most is the way job losses in America, which obviously lacks our welfare system or furlough scheme, are rising exponentially.
My personal fear is that once you get beyond a certain point, you invite systems failure - people defaulting on loans, banks either failing or being propped up with funny money that leads to hyperinflation, a cycle of economic chaos that's difficult to break.
Negatives: sunburn and far too much weeding done. We’ve long run out of garden waste space.
Positives: my other half’s cooking and the espresso martinis are now in production.
Net balance: positive.
For so long as full lockdown causes less harm in the long run than starting to dial back then it should stay; once it can reasonably be supposed to cause more harm then it should be relaxed. The rest is noise.
I mean, all those wasted pixels, wasted.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1249049820809101313?s=20
If we'd gotten down to sub-5,000 from 50,000 everyone would be proclaiming the lockdown a huge success.
Well, real daily infections number just prior to lockdown were probably at least 50,000. It's just that the amount of testing was tiny. Italy was doing sub-5,000 tests a day, and getting (at peak) 56% of those tested with the virus. When you remember that about a third of people with the disease get false negatives, that means that the true proportion of those tested was probably close to 75%.
Italy is now doing more than 50,000 tests per day, and just 7% of them are coming out positive.
That's a massive part of the difference.
He also managed the most brilliant identification balls-up when we went to twitch a Siberian Red-flanked Bluetail in Dorset.
We were all watching the bird. He was not able to get on it.
"Where iz it in relation to ze robin?"
"It is the bloody "robin"...."
She said Asda and she has a local post code so no problem
Or dig a tunnel to hide it in.....
https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1249053550665183237/photo/1
I think you celebrate too early
If you cant be popular when your leader is in ICU .......
Already difficult + 1-4 weeks + 5-8 weeks = 41%
Not difficult + 9-12 weeks + 13-24 weeks + 25+ weeks = 44%
Don't know = 15%
Median is thus 8.5 weeks or a touch higher.
And that is from 1-3 April so actually takes up to start of June.
However, you have been proclaiming the UK as the biggest failure in dealing with this for some time now and I have consistently posted that it is far too early to declare who has or has not been successful and I maintain this is months or even years before any clarification of how covid was eventually and hopefully vanquished and who took the best actions
But I do feel sorry for those who are still in the game. There must be no bunch of people suffering more in the lock down than those hearing of an exotic Lark that would ordinarily be easily attained.....!
It's the situation a lot of companies find themselves in right now. They have to either pay their suppliers for something they don't need any more, or face litigation for breaking the contract, or severely pissing off that supplier if they need them again after the crisis.
Ironically it is easier to lay off your own staff (one to three months notice at most) than it is to get out of expensive service contracts. So staff get cut faster even though they're more useful and a cheaper in house resource.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
So Starmer doing about as well as IDS so far
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-52047532
If I can use 'pass the parcel' as an analogy, I wouldn't want to be the party of government when the music stopped.
I cannot see the economic carnage that will follow Covid-19 making too many incumbent governments popular.
Boris and Rishi may play absolute blinders, but the post Covid-19 train wreck could well be out of their control. Deserved or not, if voters start to look for scapegoats to blame for their financial woes, it will be incumbent governments the world over that will suffer.
Move to the Midlands - the Centre of Civilisation. Or watch the answer to my Gardening Corner Compost Question tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1248950419889565696
To be honest, my priority is not worrying about the stripe of the government of the day. I am more interested in my family unit surviving Covid-19 and its financial aftershock.
As far as I am concerned, if it meant this catastrophe would stop tomorrow I would be quite content to gift the Conservatives 50 years of landslide governments.
It's easy to shriek more tests more beds more PPE. Much more difficult to make it happen instantly as the public understands.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210397/Horrific-moment-seagull-plucks-live-rabbit-warren-swallowing-WHOLE.html?ito=facebook_share_article-top&fbclid=IwAR2IcwfyEAzICrkV1XYA9r06YMo9HUgJprkNBbwm1zRwz4KbZ5t40yQd95U
Saw a gull pick up and fly off with a rabbit at North Haven, Skomer, The gull was mobbed and it dropped its prey, I have no idea if other gulls finished it off.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/