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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voting closes in the LAB leadership contest with Starmer rated

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Hancock is also inviting follow-ups - something his successors won't thank him for....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    omg, seriously? A journalist just asked why was the health secretary tested?
  • Channel 4 - why did you get the test

    And they wonder why they are boycotted
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    Out of interest, how did the Hodge describe those disastrous previous press conferences at the time?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Channel 4 - why did you get the test

    And they wonder why they are boycotted

    It's an utterly ridiculous question. He's the bloody health secretary!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    Magic Grandpa's final interview tonight.

    Saturday can't come soon enough.

    After Saturday he becomes the wise old grandee dispensing svengali like wisdom from the backbenches and the protest rallies, to whom the Leader, initially at least, will need to pay appropriate homage.
    If Starmer really wants to show that his leadership is a fresh start he should expel the malignant old fool from the party, along with his acolytes.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Scott_xP said:
    I see - the govt to blame for biology now ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    TGOHF666 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume private provision in the NHS is now a good thing? ;)

    The private sector rides to the rescue of the NHS ?

    Lets have a clap for the private sector ..
    PBs Tweedle dumb and Tweedle dumber are alive and well.

    Of course you draft everybody in when your in a crisis. Even unaccredited labs like some of those added today are needed and were needed weeks ago.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441

    Foxy said:

    Latest Leicester/Leics figures
    129 current inpatients
    64 now recovered and discharged
    26 total deaths

    Overflow ICU now in use, but good to see numbers of recovered going up.

    I think that criteria for discharge are inconsistent even within healthcare systems, maybe even more so between different countries.
    I'm struggling to find data for the UK (not just on world-o-meter). The differences in proportions active/resolved cases over time might be indicative of average severity.
    Do you have a source for that kind of numbers?
    The Health Secretary stated (I think!) that there were 12,000 people in hospital in England at present. Since there are 28,000 people who have been tested positive in England and ~2700 deaths, that would suggest that 13,000 people have been either discharged or are recovering at home. Does that sound about right?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    TGOHF666 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume private provision in the NHS is now a good thing? ;)

    The private sector rides to the rescue of the NHS ?

    Lets have a clap for the private sector ..
    PBs Tweedle dumb and Tweedle dumber are alive and well.

    Of course you draft everybody in when your in a crisis. Even unaccredited labs like some of those added today are needed and were needed weeks ago.
    No need to be rude. What I said may have been said in jest.. hence the smiley.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Out of interest, how did the Hodge describe those disastrous previous press conferences at the time?
    He’s just a government shill !

    Apparently significant progress in NHS testing is managing 5,000 out of half a million front line workers and they could have involved the private sector weeks ago .

    At least we have a new slogan , no test is better than a bad test ! Zzzzzz
  • DensparkDenspark Posts: 68
    IshmaelZ said:

    Denspark said:

    The industrial and scientific might of the whole world is working on therapies and/or a vaccine for this. Surely we must succeed?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/coronavirus-vaccine-is-coming-in-a-year-to-18-months-show-me

    Has some reasons for hope and some for caution. I don't know enough biology to assess whether hope or caution is better placed!
    Further down that link it says that the BCG vaccine may help blunt the Covid-19 virus.

    "studies showing the BCG vaccine provided protection against not just tuberculosis bacteria but also other types of contagions. So his team put together the data on what countries had universal BCG vaccine policies and when they were put in place. They then compared the number of confirmed cases and deaths from Covid-19 to find a strong correlation."

    In which case the oldies should be benefitting from that, but don't seem to be.
    apparently the Uk only had universal BCG vaccination for kids from 1953. so the 70+ cohort likely never got it.
    80plus because given at age 14 (so first cohort born 1939).
    ah very true..... i've lost the ability to count......
    i thought i got mine in 1st year at secondary but maybe my memory is failing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    nico67 said:

    Out of interest, how did the Hodge describe those disastrous previous press conferences at the time?
    He’s just a government shill !

    Apparently significant progress in NHS testing is managing 5,000 out of half a million front line workers and they could have involved the private sector weeks ago .

    At least we have a new slogan , no test is better than a bad test ! Zzzzzz
    They've had that mantra from the start.
  • TGOHF666 said:

    RobD said:

    I assume private provision in the NHS is now a good thing? ;)

    The private sector rides to the rescue of the NHS ?

    Lets have a clap for the private sector ..
    PBs Tweedle dumb and Tweedle dumber are alive and well.

    Of course you draft everybody in when your in a crisis. Even unaccredited labs like some of those added today are needed and were needed weeks ago.
    Do you think being rude makes your point rather than obscures it
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Scott_xP said:
    Spoiler - not all NHS staff are critical.

    A bit like some thinking...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Good to see Hancock back working. Let’s hope the reality lives up to the rhetoric of 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month. Will Hancock have a job if it doesn’t?

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Centrists: Labour needs to be a broad church!
    Also centrists:
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Magic Grandpa's final interview tonight.

    Saturday can't come soon enough.

    After Saturday he becomes the wise old grandee dispensing svengali like wisdom from the backbenches and the protest rallies, to whom the Leader, initially at least, will need to pay appropriate homage.
    If Starmer really wants to show that his leadership is a fresh start he should expel the malignant old fool from the party, along with his acolytes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    TGOHF666 said:

    Spoiler - not all NHS staff are critical.

    But that's not what he said.

    He said patients over NHS staff.
  • Jonathan said:

    Good to see Hancock back working. Let’s hope the reality lives up to the rhetoric of 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month. Will Hancock have a job if it doesn’t?

    I have no doubt he will be in post in May and beyond
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spoiler - not all NHS staff are critical.

    A bit like some thinking...
    You would have to ask the person who set the priorities that key decisions makers count as key staff, a very sensible decision.

    Which was not Hancock ...
  • ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Latest Leicester/Leics figures
    129 current inpatients
    64 now recovered and discharged
    26 total deaths

    Overflow ICU now in use, but good to see numbers of recovered going up.

    I think that criteria for discharge are inconsistent even within healthcare systems, maybe even more so between different countries.
    I'm struggling to find data for the UK (not just on world-o-meter). The differences in proportions active/resolved cases over time might be indicative of average severity.
    Do you have a source for that kind of numbers?
    The Health Secretary stated (I think!) that there were 12,000 people in hospital in England at present. Since there are 28,000 people who have been tested positive in England and ~2700 deaths, that would suggest that 13,000 people have been either discharged or are recovering at home. Does that sound about right?
    I don't have an answer to that question.
    World-o-meter shows the rate of recovered for other major European countries much lower at 10%-20%, but only a total of 135 cases for the UK.
    The 13,000 you mention will mostly be at home, but then probably not recovered yet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    MattW said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spoiler - not all NHS staff are critical.

    A bit like some thinking...
    You would have to ask the person who set the priorities that key decisions makers count as key staff, a very sensible decision.

    Which was not Hancock ...
    The second in command for the country's coronavirus response is key staff? Hmmm, I'm not so sure.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Latest Leicester/Leics figures
    129 current inpatients
    64 now recovered and discharged
    26 total deaths

    Overflow ICU now in use, but good to see numbers of recovered going up.

    I think that criteria for discharge are inconsistent even within healthcare systems, maybe even more so between different countries.
    I'm struggling to find data for the UK (not just on world-o-meter). The differences in proportions active/resolved cases over time might be indicative of average severity.
    Do you have a source for that kind of numbers?
    The Health Secretary stated (I think!) that there were 12,000 people in hospital in England at present. Since there are 28,000 people who have been tested positive in England and ~2700 deaths, that would suggest that 13,000 people have been either discharged or are recovering at home. Does that sound about right?
    I don't have an answer to that question.
    World-o-meter shows the rate of recovered for other major European countries much lower at 10%-20%, but only a total of 135 cases for the UK.
    The 13,000 you mention will mostly be at home, but then probably not recovered yet?
    I think the 135 figure was last updated on 22 March. They just aren't publishing that information at the moment.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Centrists: Labour needs to be a broad church!
    Also centrists:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Magic Grandpa's final interview tonight.

    Saturday can't come soon enough.

    After Saturday he becomes the wise old grandee dispensing svengali like wisdom from the backbenches and the protest rallies, to whom the Leader, initially at least, will need to pay appropriate homage.
    If Starmer really wants to show that his leadership is a fresh start he should expel the malignant old fool from the party, along with his acolytes.
    Corbyn and his acolytes - some of whom belonged to other parties and fought against Labour - should never have been allowed into Labour. They are a nasty far left little groupuscule, whose disappearance back into the nasty dark shadows from which they came cannot come a moment too soon for me.

    I don’t think a party should be a broad church if that means allowing in anti-semites, Communists and terrorist appeasers. It should have some standards.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    Dear Lord.

    The Prof said that the antibody test was best done at 28 days.

    Questioner translated that into ineffective before 28 days.

    Thicko Journo.

    Another one with an Oxford University Arts Degree, perhaps?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:
    Why? Seems like a self inflicted wound.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:
    Why? Seems like a self inflicted wound.
    Someone posted afterwards saying they were just topping up the salary of their higher paid staff. I had assumed that the government scheme was either/or.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Latest Leicester/Leics figures
    129 current inpatients
    64 now recovered and discharged
    26 total deaths

    Overflow ICU now in use, but good to see numbers of recovered going up.

    I think that criteria for discharge are inconsistent even within healthcare systems, maybe even more so between different countries.
    I'm struggling to find data for the UK (not just on world-o-meter). The differences in proportions active/resolved cases over time might be indicative of average severity.
    Do you have a source for that kind of numbers?
    The Health Secretary stated (I think!) that there were 12,000 people in hospital in England at present. Since there are 28,000 people who have been tested positive in England and ~2700 deaths, that would suggest that 13,000 people have been either discharged or are recovering at home. Does that sound about right?
    I don't have an answer to that question.
    World-o-meter shows the rate of recovered for other major European countries much lower at 10%-20%, but only a total of 135 cases for the UK.
    The 13,000 you mention will mostly be at home, but then probably not recovered yet?
    I think so... would be good if someone asked this in the press conference, since it's a very useful piece of information. Interestingly, there are more recovered individuals in Spain rather than in Italy. Given the timings of the epidemics, I suspect this might mean that Spain's figures refer to discharges than being negative on a subsequent test so would be broadly comparable to those in the UK. But it's supposition without harder data!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    20 days after "We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000," We have new more promises from Hancock not even describing it as a target now.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Centrists: Labour needs to be a broad church!
    Also centrists:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Magic Grandpa's final interview tonight.

    Saturday can't come soon enough.

    After Saturday he becomes the wise old grandee dispensing svengali like wisdom from the backbenches and the protest rallies, to whom the Leader, initially at least, will need to pay appropriate homage.
    If Starmer really wants to show that his leadership is a fresh start he should expel the malignant old fool from the party, along with his acolytes.
    How does Labour get to be a broad church, if it includes people who think it shouldn't be a broad church, and will go to absurd lengths to ensure that it isn't?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    BigRich said:

    Latest figures log rate per million population.
    Italy definitely seems to be flattening off.
    Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken.
    (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)


    We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
    It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
    Thanks for producing this Andy_Cooke

    I don't know how simple it would be, but, is there a way of indicating with a X when on that graph each nation implemented its Lock down?
    I can have a crack. It looks rather busy and I'm not sure how easy it is to pick them out:

    Bloody hell, you have to feel sorry for the Belgians. One of the earliest countries in relative terms to implement a lockdown and yet the worst numbers for death rates on that graph.
    Yeah.
    Of course, the 16 days since the lockdown isn’t enough time yet to see any benefit, but I’d suspect that their status as effectively the crossroads of Europe has hurt them here - they get a LOT of foreign travel (especially businessmen and diplomats) which could have turbocharged their exponential growth in infections in the pre-shutdown days.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    20 days after "We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000," We have new more promises from Hancock not even describing it as a target now.

    He didn't describe it as a target? Are we watching the same press conference?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Setting aside the stuff about the tests, they appear to be saying that hospital admissions are still rising, but not sharply, and may reduce.

    If the lockdown was working, shouldn't it have reduced hospital admissions by now?

    How does this end, unless we can reduce the spread? With a form of herd immunity, but just at a rather lower level that was first envisaged?
  • Matt Hancock telling footballers to take a pay cut

    Well done
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Latest Leicester/Leics figures
    129 current inpatients
    64 now recovered and discharged
    26 total deaths

    Overflow ICU now in use, but good to see numbers of recovered going up.

    I think that criteria for discharge are inconsistent even within healthcare systems, maybe even more so between different countries.
    I'm struggling to find data for the UK (not just on world-o-meter). The differences in proportions active/resolved cases over time might be indicative of average severity.
    Do you have a source for that kind of numbers?
    The Health Secretary stated (I think!) that there were 12,000 people in hospital in England at present. Since there are 28,000 people who have been tested positive in England and ~2700 deaths, that would suggest that 13,000 people have been either discharged or are recovering at home. Does that sound about right?
    I don't have an answer to that question.
    World-o-meter shows the rate of recovered for other major European countries much lower at 10%-20%, but only a total of 135 cases for the UK.
    The 13,000 you mention will mostly be at home, but then probably not recovered yet?
    It's a figure the government aren't publishing. Very frustrating as it is a very key piece of insight on who is being tested.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    edited April 2020
    Premier League players should make a contribution but taking a pay cut that stays in the pockets of the owners helps no-one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Premier League players should make a contribution but taking a paycut that stays in the pockets of the owners helps no-one.

    They could just pay their taxes, of course.
  • ABZ said:

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Latest Leicester/Leics figures
    129 current inpatients
    64 now recovered and discharged
    26 total deaths

    Overflow ICU now in use, but good to see numbers of recovered going up.

    I think that criteria for discharge are inconsistent even within healthcare systems, maybe even more so between different countries.
    I'm struggling to find data for the UK (not just on world-o-meter). The differences in proportions active/resolved cases over time might be indicative of average severity.
    Do you have a source for that kind of numbers?
    The Health Secretary stated (I think!) that there were 12,000 people in hospital in England at present. Since there are 28,000 people who have been tested positive in England and ~2700 deaths, that would suggest that 13,000 people have been either discharged or are recovering at home. Does that sound about right?
    I don't have an answer to that question.
    World-o-meter shows the rate of recovered for other major European countries much lower at 10%-20%, but only a total of 135 cases for the UK.
    The 13,000 you mention will mostly be at home, but then probably not recovered yet?
    I think so... would be good if someone asked this in the press conference, since it's a very useful piece of information. Interestingly, there are more recovered individuals in Spain rather than in Italy. Given the timings of the epidemics, I suspect this might mean that Spain's figures refer to discharges than being negative on a subsequent test so would be broadly comparable to those in the UK. But it's supposition without harder data!
    Agreed. The % of recovered might be a useful parameter when deciding when to loosen the lockdown.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Chris said:

    Setting aside the stuff about the tests, they appear to be saying that hospital admissions are still rising, but not sharply, and may reduce.

    If the lockdown was working, shouldn't it have reduced hospital admissions by now?

    How does this end, unless we can reduce the spread? With a form of herd immunity, but just at a rather lower level that was first envisaged?

    The incubation period means quite a few would have been infected before the lockdown and also some who get sick might still take another week to end up in hospital .

    So effectively it could take around 3 weeks between lockdown and seeing a significant drop in new cases and new hospitalizations.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Scott_xP said:
    that just shows that a fair few countries are broadly in the same place :/
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited April 2020
    ....
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    MattW said:

    Dear Lord.

    The Prof said that the antibody test was best done at 28 days.

    Questioner translated that into ineffective before 28 days.

    Thicko Journo.

    Another one with an Oxford University Arts Degree, perhaps?

    Most of the questioners appear to be political correspondents and well out of their depth. The question part of these press conferences is proving to be a waste of time.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    That response about the tests in the field is one I'm very happy to hear. A well designed study can give you a really good idea of what's going on across the population. Will really tell the government what degree of asymptomatic infection is taking place.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    ydoethur said:

    Premier League players should make a contribution but taking a paycut that stays in the pockets of the owners helps no-one.

    They could just pay their taxes, of course.
    PL players will be on PAYE. They are employees of the clubs.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Endillion said:

    Centrists: Labour needs to be a broad church!
    Also centrists:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Magic Grandpa's final interview tonight.

    Saturday can't come soon enough.

    After Saturday he becomes the wise old grandee dispensing svengali like wisdom from the backbenches and the protest rallies, to whom the Leader, initially at least, will need to pay appropriate homage.
    If Starmer really wants to show that his leadership is a fresh start he should expel the malignant old fool from the party, along with his acolytes.
    How does Labour get to be a broad church, if it includes people who think it shouldn't be a broad church, and will go to absurd lengths to ensure that it isn't?
    There is a difference between a broad church and the zealots from a different sect who want to burn your church to the ground.

    If elected then a sufficient number of the membership back him, the MPs backed him and sufficient Unions backed him.

    He has all the authority he needs to purge the militants. He could start by purging his Cabinet.
  • 8% of staff absent due to covid

    That seems very low in view of the media uproar over absent staff
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Matt Hancock telling footballers to take a pay cut

    Well done

    Many lower league footballers will be out of contract on May 1st and do not earn mega bucks, the whole of the league structure from league one downwards, as a professional game, is in doubt. Coupled with the none playing staff already furloughed the impact on this part of the game is no different to many other industries.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    RobD said:

    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.

    Massive penalties needed for anybody creating or carrying forgeries. Like, throw away the key on the bastards.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    RobD said:

    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.

    But what does that mean? Anyone who hasn’t had it has to stay locked up indefinitely? Recipe for disaster.
  • nichomar said:

    Matt Hancock telling footballers to take a pay cut

    Well done

    Many lower league footballers will be out of contract on May 1st and do not earn mega bucks, the whole of the league structure from league one downwards, as a professional game, is in doubt. Coupled with the none playing staff already furloughed the impact on this part of the game is no different to many other industries.
    The target is highly paid premiership players
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Premier League players should make a contribution but taking a paycut that stays in the pockets of the owners helps no-one.

    They could just pay their taxes, of course.
    PL players will be on PAYE. They are employees of the clubs.
    Marketing and endorsements will be handled separately. As will investments etc, much of which will be offshore. And I’m not sure the higher paid will be PAYE.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    RobD said:

    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.

    But what does that mean? Anyone who hasn’t had it has to stay locked up indefinitely? Recipe for disaster.
    Yes I’d like an answer to that question.
  • 17.5 million tests purchased subject to them working
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.

    But what does that mean? Anyone who hasn’t had it has to stay locked up indefinitely? Recipe for disaster.
    Or that you get periodic swab tests, and if you have symptoms you immediately isolate yourself. I doubt they will go from full lockdown to no lockdown + certificate. It'd be some gradual process.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Premier League players should make a contribution but taking a paycut that stays in the pockets of the owners helps no-one.

    They could just pay their taxes, of course.
    PL players will be on PAYE. They are employees of the clubs.
    Marketing and endorsements will be handled separately. As will investments etc, much of which will be offshore. And I’m not sure the higher paid will be PAYE.
    Third party ownership is banned, so for their regular wages it should all be PAYE.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,376
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.

    But what does that mean? Anyone who hasn’t had it has to stay locked up indefinitely? Recipe for disaster.
    Yes I’d like an answer to that question.
    If you haven't had it, you can venture out and maybe get it. Or not.

    Those are the choices until there is a vaccine.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Premier League players should make a contribution but taking a paycut that stays in the pockets of the owners helps no-one.

    They could just pay their taxes, of course.
    PL players will be on PAYE. They are employees of the clubs.
    Marketing and endorsements will be handled separately. As will investments etc, much of which will be offshore. And I’m not sure the higher paid will be PAYE.
    There are a number of payslips that have been leaked so if you search for footballers' payslips or similar you can probably see (or the pb accountants will be able to do the sums to reverse engineer what rates are paid).
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    MaxPB said:

    ABZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Latest Leicester/Leics figures
    129 current inpatients
    64 now recovered and discharged
    26 total deaths

    Overflow ICU now in use, but good to see numbers of recovered going up.

    I think that criteria for discharge are inconsistent even within healthcare systems, maybe even more so between different countries.
    I'm struggling to find data for the UK (not just on world-o-meter). The differences in proportions active/resolved cases over time might be indicative of average severity.
    Do you have a source for that kind of numbers?
    The Health Secretary stated (I think!) that there were 12,000 people in hospital in England at present. Since there are 28,000 people who have been tested positive in England and ~2700 deaths, that would suggest that 13,000 people have been either discharged or are recovering at home. Does that sound about right?
    I don't have an answer to that question.
    World-o-meter shows the rate of recovered for other major European countries much lower at 10%-20%, but only a total of 135 cases for the UK.
    The 13,000 you mention will mostly be at home, but then probably not recovered yet?
    It's a figure the government aren't publishing. Very frustrating as it is a very key piece of insight on who is being tested.
    The UK stats bods are not daft and are aware some kind of measurement of recoveries would be useful. If you look at their own description of the PHE Dashboard dataset you'll find this:

    Recovered patients data

    Previous updates of the dashboard included a number of patients recovered. This figure was the number of people discharged from NHS clinical services in England following a positive test result for COVID-19 and was provided by NHS services. This statistic has proved difficult to assemble and a replacement indicator is being developed.


    Hopefully they manage to come up with something...

    The dashboard itself is here and an Excel file of historic UK dashboard data is here.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Weren't even optimistic predictions of the peak expected to be around 12/4? Was anyone expecting plateauing before then at the earliest?
    You are right, but I understand why people seeing what looks like a flat(tening) trend might jump on it and get hopeful. It's human nature. The same reason people see phantom trends in polling from one or two data points.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Very impressive numbers from France today
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    17.5 million tests purchased subject to them working

    Yes, that's fairly fundamental I would have thought.

    The Government response now is about providing light at the end of the tunnel, optimism life will return to normal and we will be able to move around again.

    The cold hard truth is we're not even half way through the initial lockdown period and I suspect stresses and strains are starting to show.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Has Dr Hancock calmed the poor dears down for now?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Premier League players should make a contribution but taking a paycut that stays in the pockets of the owners helps no-one.

    They could just pay their taxes, of course.
    PL players will be on PAYE. They are employees of the clubs.
    Marketing and endorsements will be handled separately. As will investments etc, much of which will be offshore. And I’m not sure the higher paid will be PAYE.
    If they cut their wages then HMRC lose out, the club gain, the player doesn’t really notice. You need more than let’s cut PL player wages without then saying what you do with the money. Better to let HMRC get their cut and the players to support a range of charities. The next wave of problems are going to come from a range of charities across the board who could go under because income is dropping like a stone, are the designated key workers?
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441

    Very impressive numbers from France today

    Very strange to be honest! The variation in positive tests over the past 3 days has been phenomenal (7578 to 4861 to 2116)! I'd guess the total number of tests performed must have varied very substantially since halving the number of new cases each day doesn't seem very likely...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:
    The nanny state temperance lobby and its associated cranks never miss an opportunity to push their agenda.
    Everyone should judge their own risks and their own circumstances. If you are young, female, reasonably fit with a BMI <25 and no underlying conditions like asthma or diabetes it would probably be an unnecessary precaution. If you tick 3/4 of those boxes likewise. If you don't, like me, you should really think about it.

    Its not the nanny state, its common sense. </p>
    You described me exactly there David so I can continue supping.
    Never doubted it Malcolm. I trust you and your good lady wife are well?
    Hello David, Holding on thanks, locked in the bunker. All hospital appointments cancelled.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    GIN1138 said:

    Has Dr Hancock calmed the poor dears down for now?

    Hancock has just written off £13bn NHS debt so the deficit and inflation hawks will be after him, and after all those thanks to PHE so will the PHS,W,NI mob.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I fear Covid-19 may be affecting the brains of Unionist politicians in Scotland. First Ruth "Next PM" Davidson doxxing the intelligence service, now the naming of the temp hospital in Glasgow apparently causing concern and consternation for Douglas Alexander.

    Unionism - not even once.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Good on the BBC to begin showing classic sport this Summer. I hope the bookies will join in this spirit by allowing classic in-play betting...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/52134253
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    GIN1138 said:

    Has Dr Hancock calmed the poor dears down for now?

    I don't even know what that means.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    I was pleased to hear about the diagnostic companies getting involved, OK, I was employed by Roche for 16 years in the drug safety laboratory (we changed it to that from the toxicology laboratory), so I might biased, But they're a highly professional company despite that.

    I'm surprised Robert Peston had the brass neck to appear again, but these Oxford PPE graduates know everything, don't they?

    I still get irritated when a question starts … "Can you guarantee …?" Just answer 'No' and move on.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spoiler - not all NHS staff are critical.

    A bit like some thinking...
    You would have to ask the person who set the priorities that key decisions makers count as key staff, a very sensible decision.

    Which was not Hancock ...
    The second in command for the country's coronavirus response is key staff? Hmmm, I'm not so sure.
    I think the drift we have seen whilst he has been under house arrest shows the contrary.
  • 8% of staff absent due to covid

    That seems very low in view of the media uproar over absent staff

    The question would be whether that % includes the asymptomatic who were advised to self-isolate due to having had contact.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    nico67 said:

    Chris said:

    Setting aside the stuff about the tests, they appear to be saying that hospital admissions are still rising, but not sharply, and may reduce.

    If the lockdown was working, shouldn't it have reduced hospital admissions by now?

    How does this end, unless we can reduce the spread? With a form of herd immunity, but just at a rather lower level that was first envisaged?

    The incubation period means quite a few would have been infected before the lockdown and also some who get sick might still take another week to end up in hospital .

    So effectively it could take around 3 weeks between lockdown and seeing a significant drop in new cases and new hospitalizations.
    Hmm. I don't believe 3 weeks, considering the mean incubation period is only about 5 days. Maybe after 10 days we are still seeing some hospitalisations of people infected before the lockdown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    New thread.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited April 2020
    stodge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Dr Hancock calmed the poor dears down for now?

    I don't even know what that means.
    The lobby seemed to be getting themselves into a bit of a frenzy this morning.

    Just wondered if Hancock's presser might have gone some way to calming them down (I haven't been watching this afternoon) ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    8% of staff absent due to covid

    That seems very low in view of the media uproar over absent staff

    The question would be whether that % includes the asymptomatic who were advised to self-isolate due to having had contact.
    8% across the NHS across the country could mask great variations between regions and specialities; indeed you'd expect it would, just as it the number of patients varies.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    I fear Covid-19 may be affecting the brains of Unionist politicians in Scotland. First Ruth "Next PM" Davidson doxxing the intelligence service, now the naming of the temp hospital in Glasgow apparently causing concern and consternation for Douglas Alexander.

    Unionism - not even once.

    And yet it's the might of the UK balance sheet that is allowing Scotland to write the necessary blank cheques for treatment.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Very impressive numbers from France today

    There's numbers and there's numbers

    https://www.ft.com/content/58ece0fb-d297-495e-8889-da216410f2c3
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    RobD said:

    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.

    But what does that mean? Anyone who hasn’t had it has to stay locked up indefinitely? Recipe for disaster.
    Pox parties.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359

    TGOHF666 said:

    Hancock coming out swinging here.

    His suggestion that patients should get a test over NHS staff will wind up some.

    He has been missed
    Like a hole in the head
  • 8% of staff absent due to covid

    That seems very low in view of the media uproar over absent staff

    The question would be whether that % includes the asymptomatic who were advised to self-isolate due to having had contact.
    8% across the NHS across the country could mask great variations between regions and specialities; indeed you'd expect it would, just as it the number of patients varies.
    That too, but my point is that I think I heard him say "8% due to covid-related conditions". That would not included the group that I had described.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359

    100,000 tests per day by the end of the month

    LOL, they have been promising huge increases for a month and yet to materialise, plenty hot air and buzz words but little evidence on the ground.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    Scott_xP said:
    They will not be short of anything for themselves you can bet on that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    I fear Covid-19 may be affecting the brains of Unionist politicians in Scotland. First Ruth "Next PM" Davidson doxxing the intelligence service, now the naming of the temp hospital in Glasgow apparently causing concern and consternation for Douglas Alexander.

    Unionism - not even once.

    And yet it's the might of the UK balance sheet that is allowing Scotland to write the necessary blank cheques for treatment.
    Away and bile your heid Max, you don't half talk some absolute bollox at times.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    NEW THREAD
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited April 2020
    Mr 1138,

    Hancock faced up to the problems to some extent (testing and shortages of PPE), and admitted our diagnostics generally come from abroad. He even admitted it was his decision to prioritise patients over NHS staff for testing. Very brave, as the civil service would say.

    Not sure I'd agree - you test one day, they're negative but they start coughing the next day? What then? Still, it's the same for staff.

    But the antibody test will be the important one. End of April? What happens if the antibody tests have too many false positive. A hostage to fortune.

    But overall, a reasonable pass in the circumstances.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Impressive stuff...

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/these-drugs-don-t-target-coronavirus-they-target-us#
    In another example of the blinding speed at which science is moving during the pandemic era, researchers at Aarhus University will start a clinical trial of a drug named camostat mesylate tomorrow—barely 1 month after a Cell paper showed the compound can prevent the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, from entering human cells. ...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Endillion said:

    Centrists: Labour needs to be a broad church!
    Also centrists:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    Magic Grandpa's final interview tonight.

    Saturday can't come soon enough.

    After Saturday he becomes the wise old grandee dispensing svengali like wisdom from the backbenches and the protest rallies, to whom the Leader, initially at least, will need to pay appropriate homage.
    If Starmer really wants to show that his leadership is a fresh start he should expel the malignant old fool from the party, along with his acolytes.
    How does Labour get to be a broad church, if it includes people who think it shouldn't be a broad church, and will go to absurd lengths to ensure that it isn't?
    For years Labour aimed to keep out the SWP and assorted Trots and marxists. Corbyn has allowed them to all stream into the party and take it over. If Labour wishes to seriously challenge for power it needs to return to where it was and boost out the entryists PDQ.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Sounds like there will be certificates of immunity with mass antibody testing.

    But what does that mean? Anyone who hasn’t had it has to stay locked up indefinitely? Recipe for disaster.
    Yes I’d like an answer to that question.
    If you haven't had it, you can venture out and maybe get it. Or not.

    Those are the choices until there is a vaccine.
    As long as people aren't punished for not wanting to get it by putting themselves in harm's way.
This discussion has been closed.