He was unfortunately wrong in one point or at least somewhat misleading. He claims it was known human to human transmission was happening at the end of December. But the WHO was claiming up until 20th January that there was no evidence of human to human transmission.
If the govt went out and did 100k random tests tomorrow and 95% came back negative, wouldn't that be a waste of time/resources?
Given the 40%+ positive figures, it appears that testing is being done only on suspected cases. Which makes more sense to me.
I can't see the point in testing millions of people who've been stuck at home for a fortnight (NHS workers aside) knowing that when they emerge back outdoors they are going to get it anyway.
Surely the only positive thing a govt can do is play for time to help the NHS. They are resigned to the fact 80%+ of us will get the illness and are doing this lockdown to try to stagger it. Testing won't stop people getting it.
If those 100,000 tests were of key workers who are stuck in isolation because it is suspected they have the virus or a family member has it then yes I think it would be of very great value to have them done.
The Head of the English NHS Trusts was on the radio yesterday and said that they had been testing key workers who were stuck at home under 14 day quarantine and found that only 15% of them had the virus. That could make a big difference to workloads on the front line.
Thank you - yes, a good idea to test NHS staff (but even then they could catch the virus the next day). But is there any point doing testing on the likes of my mother in law, who hasn't seen daylight in 14 days'?
I think the argument can be made that there is some value in random testing to get a clearer picture on community transmission. The counterargument will be that you don't want to invest too much testing capacity for that.
I aleady posted yesterday that our authorities are taking the approach of limited, local random testing as a sort of compromise. They chose Gangelt, a small municipality close to Heinsberg, one of our early clusters. Out of a population of 12,000 they selected 1,000 as a representative sample, invited them for a test to find out the pattern of community transmission. Other, similar local test schemes are being prepared. I think this approach may deliver some useful insights.
Yes - how dare the independent give over their opinion column to an academic/nurse specializing in mental health? Who do they think they are?
It's very good advice to reduce your alcohol consumption at the present time. In addition to the links between immune system & alcohol, cutting down on drinking could also help people lose weight, which is associated with bad outcomes if you do get COVID 19.
Its what I am doing. 3 weeks tomorrow. I am 58 and slightly overweight. I had blood clots on my lungs last year that caused a thankfully minor problem with my heart. It really seems no more than common sense.
Unfortunately working at home surrounded by snacks its not having the impact on my weight that I hoped and the lack of gyms is really not helping. But you do what you can.
FPT My good lady wife has now been out allegedly at Tesco's for more than an hour.
Do I assume:
(a) that there is a very long queue to get into the shop; (b) that she is indulging in a wild affair in breach of her social distancing obligations? (c) that she was involved in a fight to the death for the last piece of dried pasta and, very uncharacteristically, lost? (d) all of the above?
She has returned and is adamant that it was (a). Right...
Be original David.
There was a long queue to get into the shop, so to jump it she indulged in a wild affair with the manager to get moved to the front. Once there, there was a wild fight to the death over the last packet of pasta which she won, but she then had to wash the blood off the pasta she’d clubbed the other person to death with so it would scan.
Does that work?
it is easy to kill people with pasta. The penne is mightier than the sword.
I was trying to think of a pasta pun to follow that up, but it’s not easy, give me a minute Orzo.
It is a farfale better thing I do today...
Very good, but let’s give it up. We don’t want it Linguine.
This conv. is all farfale and no nuvole.
It's the way you tagliatelle.
Dur..um friends think that's funny ?
I asked our lasagne know what she said? No.
You'll always get a fusilli puns.
I tried to buy 8 tins of soup from asda. The man at till said too many. When I asked for a canneloni said that was ok.
If the govt went out and did 100k random tests tomorrow and 95% came back negative, wouldn't that be a waste of time/resources?
Given the 40%+ positive figures, it appears that testing is being done only on suspected cases. Which makes more sense to me.
I can't see the point in testing millions of people who've been stuck at home for a fortnight (NHS workers aside) knowing that when they emerge back outdoors they are going to get it anyway.
Surely the only positive thing a govt can do is play for time to help the NHS. They are resigned to the fact 80%+ of us will get the illness and are doing this lockdown to try to stagger it. Testing won't stop people getting it.
If those 100,000 tests were of key workers who are stuck in isolation because it is suspected they have the virus or a family member has it then yes I think it would be of very great value to have them done.
The Head of the English NHS Trusts was on the radio yesterday and said that they had been testing key workers who were stuck at home under 14 day quarantine and found that only 15% of them had the virus. That could make a big difference to workloads on the front line.
Thank you - yes, a good idea to test NHS staff (but even then they could catch the virus the next day). But is there any point doing testing on the likes of my mother in law, who hasn't seen daylight in 14 days'?
I think the argument can be made that there is some value in random testing to get a clearer picture on community transmission. The counterargument will be that you don't want to invest too much testing capacity for that.
I aleady posted yesterday that our authorities are taking the approach of limited, local random testing as a sort of compromise. They chose Gangelt, a small municipality close to Heinsberg, one of our early clusters. Out of a population of 12,000 they selected 1,000 as a representative sample, invited them for a test to find out the pattern of community transmission. Other, similar local test schemes are being prepared. I think this approach may deliver some useful insights.
Have they got any results (or rather released any results) yet from the Gangelt testing. It would be interesting to see what, if any, hidden infection there was in Germany as I can't think it would be that different to the UK.
If the govt went out and did 100k random tests tomorrow and 95% came back negative, wouldn't that be a waste of time/resources?
Given the 40%+ positive figures, it appears that testing is being done only on suspected cases. Which makes more sense to me.
I can't see the point in testing millions of people who've been stuck at home for a fortnight (NHS workers aside) knowing that when they emerge back outdoors they are going to get it anyway.
Surely the only positive thing a govt can do is play for time to help the NHS. They are resigned to the fact 80%+ of us will get the illness and are doing this lockdown to try to stagger it. Testing won't stop people getting it.
If those 100,000 tests were of key workers who are stuck in isolation because it is suspected they have the virus or a family member has it then yes I think it would be of very great value to have them done.
The Head of the English NHS Trusts was on the radio yesterday and said that they had been testing key workers who were stuck at home under 14 day quarantine and found that only 15% of them had the virus. That could make a big difference to workloads on the front line.
Thank you - yes, a good idea to test NHS staff (but even then they could catch the virus the next day). But is there any point doing testing on the likes of my mother in law, who hasn't seen daylight in 14 days'?
You do know she's allowed out the cellar for her daily exercise?
Believe it or not, despite being absolutely minted, she's living in a caravan on her land! They sold their farmhouse and stables last year, keeping a few acres of land to build a new bungalow on. But planning was a nightmare and just after they were given planning this virus struck! So she's in the caravan isolating for a while yet!
Mr. Tyndall, on transmission etc, haven't question marks been raised about the WHO being too willing to swallow Chinese say-so without corroborating claims?
I wonder if those who got so carried away by using the previous couple of results to lament the growth rate of deaths will immediately jump onto a plateau/peak bandwagon, only to shriek calamity if the numbers rise again (which they probably will).
As a political betting website, we should all be aware of the danger of over-emphasising individual data points (on e.g. polls) until the trend is clear.
Mr. Tyndall, on transmission etc, haven't question marks been raised about the WHO being too willing to swallow Chinese say-so without corroborating claims?
Absolutely. Eodric posted up the stuff yesterday about China ensuring early warnings from Taiwan about human to human infection were not passed on by the WHO.
My wife has restarted drinking, not stopped. It's not much, just a glass of wine every now and then, but she drank almost nothing beforehand because I don't drink at all so she always felt guilty doing so. Now she just doesn't care.
What do we actually know about Keir Starmer? I do not seem to recall any speeches of any note. Is KS the answer , just because there is no sensible alternative?
Yes - how dare the independent give over their opinion column to an academic/nurse specializing in mental health? Who do they think they are?
It's very good advice to reduce your alcohol consumption at the present time. In addition to the links between immune system & alcohol, cutting down on drinking could also help people lose weight, which is associated with bad outcomes if you do get COVID 19.
There are plenty of academics/nurses who work in mental health who would disagree with this particular anti alcohol crank.
If the govt went out and did 100k random tests tomorrow and 95% came back negative, wouldn't that be a waste of time/resources?
Given the 40%+ positive figures, it appears that testing is being done only on suspected cases. Which makes more sense to me.
I can't see the point in testing millions of people who've been stuck at home for a fortnight (NHS workers aside) knowing that when they emerge back outdoors they are going to get it anyway.
Surely the only positive thing a govt can do is play for time to help the NHS. They are resigned to the fact 80%+ of us will get the illness and are doing this lockdown to try to stagger it. Testing won't stop people getting it.
If those 100,000 tests were of key workers who are stuck in isolation because it is suspected they have the virus or a family member has it then yes I think it would be of very great value to have them done.
The Head of the English NHS Trusts was on the radio yesterday and said that they had been testing key workers who were stuck at home under 14 day quarantine and found that only 15% of them had the virus. That could make a big difference to workloads on the front line.
Thank you - yes, a good idea to test NHS staff (but even then they could catch the virus the next day). But is there any point doing testing on the likes of my mother in law, who hasn't seen daylight in 14 days'?
I think the argument can be made that there is some value in random testing to get a clearer picture on community transmission. The counterargument will be that you don't want to invest too much testing capacity for that.
I aleady posted yesterday that our authorities are taking the approach of limited, local random testing as a sort of compromise. They chose Gangelt, a small municipality close to Heinsberg, one of our early clusters. Out of a population of 12,000 they selected 1,000 as a representative sample, invited them for a test to find out the pattern of community transmission. Other, similar local test schemes are being prepared. I think this approach may deliver some useful insights.
Have they got any results (or rather released any results) yet from the Gangelt testing. It would be interesting to see what, if any, hidden infection there was in Germany as I can't think it would be that different to the UK.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
Yes - how dare the independent give over their opinion column to an academic/nurse specializing in mental health? Who do they think they are?
It's very good advice to reduce your alcohol consumption at the present time. In addition to the links between immune system & alcohol, cutting down on drinking could also help people lose weight, which is associated with bad outcomes if you do get COVID 19.
I'm not much of a drinker. Not a religious, cultural, or health decision, just not that into it (though I occasionally drink whisky, and do like it now and then).
Telling people forced to stay/walk at home, who have sporting events almost entirely absent, and who are understandably worried for themselves and others, to stop drinking is going to go down about as well as telling them to stop drinking coffee or eating chocolate.
Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken.
Extra complication with Italy is that the lockdown period is exactly when they've expanded testing a lot, changing the meaning of +daily cases figures a great deal. They locked down on ..... the 9th was it? On that day they did just under 4k tests. By the 20th they hit 24k, and yesterday 34k.
Its what I am doing. 3 weeks tomorrow. I am 58 and slightly overweight. I had blood clots on my lungs last year that caused a thankfully minor problem with my heart. It really seems no more than common sense.
Unfortunately working at home surrounded by snacks its not having the impact on my weight that I hoped and the lack of gyms is really not helping. But you do what you can.
Yes, I've cut out almost all alcohol for the time being (prompted by Foxy's example). Though I still use plenty of red wine for cooking. Same age; no blood clots..
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
I suppose unimportant in the great scheme of things but sad to see the last safe havens have been breached. Cases now identified in both the Outer Hebrides and Orkneys.
The virus has the potential to kill off island communities. A few key people dying can have a much greater impact.
I have just been told that COVID can last 9 days on supermarket trolleys
When I say told, this is by people involved in planning responses - not just a random guy on the internet
Have you heard that little tip about washing your hands....if you take the view that everything you touch outside your house could be Covid infested, and every passer by is potentially a spluttering Covid germ bag...then act accordingly....
You really are a grumpy muppet at times
I was sharing the info for others benefit
The info is appreciated but I do think Tyson is right to the extent that we should all behave as if every surface we touch is contaminated and act accordingly. How many shopping trolley handles are unused for even 1 day let alone 9?
At our supermercado they wipe the trolley handle as you enter the shop - you also must wear mask , gloves and apply the sterile gel. As you leave the counters are wiped after each customer. All happens in a wonderfully cheerful manner - the sense we're all in it together is really quite profound.
Yesterday I went to the cash point. As I walked away, somebody hurried out to clean it down.
Cleaned your cash for you? Sounds like a case of money laundering.
The nanny state temperance lobby and its associated cranks never miss an opportunity to push their agenda.
Everyone should judge their own risks and their own circumstances. If you are young, female, reasonably fit with a BMI <25 and no underlying conditions like asthma or diabetes it would probably be an unnecessary precaution. If you tick 3/4 of those boxes likewise. If you don't, like me, you should really think about it.
I wonder if those who got so carried away by using the previous couple of results to lament the growth rate of deaths will immediately jump onto a plateau/peak bandwagon, only to shriek calamity if the numbers rise again (which they probably will).
As a political betting website, we should all be aware of the danger of over-emphasising individual data points (on e.g. polls) until the trend is clear.
Its what I am doing. 3 weeks tomorrow. I am 58 and slightly overweight. I had blood clots on my lungs last year that caused a thankfully minor problem with my heart. It really seems no more than common sense.
Unfortunately working at home surrounded by snacks its not having the impact on my weight that I hoped and the lack of gyms is really not helping. But you do what you can.
Yes, I've cut out almost all alcohol for the time being (prompted by Foxy's example). Though I still use plenty of red wine for cooking. Same age; no blood clots..
Deaths rates normalised by population as per Andy Cooke's chart is a better comparator I think.
On that basis Germany is a clear outlier of low deaths. Whether that is due to good practice or just the luck of having a low number of initial infections is difficult to tell at this stage however.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
What do we actually know about Keir Starmer? I do not seem to recall any speeches of any note. Is KS the answer , just because there is no sensible alternative?
He looks and sounds like a PM. Er. Hes manages to get support from corbynistas and moderates. And he has had a successful career to a degree.
I have just been told that COVID can last 9 days on supermarket trolleys
When I say told, this is by people involved in planning responses - not just a random guy on the internet
Have you heard that little tip about washing your hands....if you take the view that everything you touch outside your house could be Covid infested, and every passer by is potentially a spluttering Covid germ bag...then act accordingly....
You really are a grumpy muppet at times
I was sharing the info for others benefit
The info is appreciated but I do think Tyson is right to the extent that we should all behave as if every surface we touch is contaminated and act accordingly. How many shopping trolley handles are unused for even 1 day let alone 9?
At our supermercado they wipe the trolley handle as you enter the shop - you also must wear mask , gloves and apply the sterile gel. As you leave the counters are wiped after each customer. All happens in a wonderfully cheerful manner - the sense we're all in it together is really quite profound.
Yesterday I went to the cash point. As I walked away, somebody hurried out to clean it down.
Cleaned your cash for you? Sounds like a case of money laundering.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
10th March (national) vs 24th March... so err... 14 days.
Its what I am doing. 3 weeks tomorrow. I am 58 and slightly overweight. I had blood clots on my lungs last year that caused a thankfully minor problem with my heart. It really seems no more than common sense.
Unfortunately working at home surrounded by snacks its not having the impact on my weight that I hoped and the lack of gyms is really not helping. But you do what you can.
Yes, I've cut out almost all alcohol for the time being (prompted by Foxy's example). Though I still use plenty of red wine for cooking. Same age; no blood clots..
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Swedes are anti-social buggers. Social distancing is their normal modus operandi.
Ref the US elections, worth noting that it's quite likely that the number US unemployed has increased by more in the last 2 weeks than through the whole of 1929-33. Certainly, the number will be broadly similar (the current reported figures exclude (1) those who've tried to claim but haven't been able to get through due to the immense number of applications; and (2) those who aren't qualified to claim but are nonetheless unemployed).
Of course, the US is a much more populous country now than it was in the 1930s. On the other hand, 2 weeks is a lot less than 4 years.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Swedes are anti-social buggers. Social distancing is their normal modus operandi.
I thought they were famous for their promiscuity? Those two would seem mutually exclusive.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
If the govt went out and did 100k random tests tomorrow and 95% came back negative, wouldn't that be a waste of time/resources?
There is some evidence that the virus may have been circulating in the UK from New Year.
Suppose the govt went out and did 100k random tests tomorrow and 95% came back POSITIVE - would that change the strategy? Perhaps many "Winter flu" deaths at home were COVID-19.
Does anybody know?
If that was the case, why are the number of Covid-19 deaths now increasing?
We might, hypothetically, have not identified the ones in January but we certainly should have been identifying Covid-19-related deaths reasonably accurately in March.
I am not arguing. I was making the point that without testing the general population (rather than those in hospital) you cannot know what is happening.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
10th March (national) vs 24th March... so err... 14 days.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
My back of envelope R0 measure (new cases announced 31/3- 2/4 ÷ those announced 24-26/3) now at 2.31, down from 2.58 yesterday, and 3.25 at the beginning of this week.
On reporting date we're into post lockdown figures now, but on average a case reported on 24/3 will have onward infected most people before that date, and I'd be pretty sure onward infection time isn't as tightly distributed around 7 days as my measure allows for. I still expect my R0 to fall substantially in the next few days.
Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken.
Extra complication with Italy is that the lockdown period is exactly when they've expanded testing a lot, changing the meaning of +daily cases figures a great deal. They locked down on ..... the 9th was it? On that day they did just under 4k tests. By the 20th they hit 24k, and yesterday 34k.
I don't think the comparison of cases/tests is very useful - that's why I went straight for deaths.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
China?
No reliable data.
Yeah - as opposed to the utterly truly reliably trustworthy data from the UK. All we have to do to correct that, is decide whether it's showing 2% of the real number of cases or 4%.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Well, yes. Most of the deaths currently will be from infections on 7th-11th of March, when most countries didn't have many steps yet taken.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Swedes are anti-social buggers. Social distancing is their normal modus operandi.
I thought they were famous for their promiscuity? Those two would seem mutually exclusive.
Would the concept of the ten foot bargepole be helpful in solving this puzzle, perhaps?
What do we actually know about Keir Starmer? I do not seem to recall any speeches of any note. Is KS the answer , just because there is no sensible alternative?
He has no history of antisemitism, nor of supporting the IRA. That makes him an improvement.
What do we actually know about Keir Starmer? I do not seem to recall any speeches of any note. Is KS the answer , just because there is no sensible alternative?
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Swedes are anti-social buggers. Social distancing is their normal modus operandi.
I thought they were famous for their promiscuity? Those two would seem mutually exclusive.
Would the concept of the ten foot bargepole be helpful in solving this puzzle, perhaps?
Posted on a Facebook page aimed the elderly "Grandson went to do a supermarket shop for us. He bought gin. ‘That’s not essential’ said the woman on the checkout. ‘Yes it is’ he said; ‘it’s for my Grannie’, ‘OK’ said the woman on the checkout!"
Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken.
Extra complication with Italy is that the lockdown period is exactly when they've expanded testing a lot, changing the meaning of +daily cases figures a great deal. They locked down on ..... the 9th was it? On that day they did just under 4k tests. By the 20th they hit 24k, and yesterday 34k.
I don't think the comparison of cases/tests is very useful - that's why I went straight for deaths.
That's a fair point. The problem is that the gap between infection and death is so long that it takes a long, long time for any measures to show up in the numbers.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
China?
No reliable data.
Yeah - as opposed to the utterly truly reliably trustworthy data from the UK. All we have to do to correct that, is decide whether it's showing 2% of the real number of cases or 4%.
Stupidity really is a fatal disease.
No we don't because the graph shows deaths, not cases, dimwit.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
China?
No reliable data.
Yeah - as opposed to the utterly truly reliably trustworthy data from the UK. All we have to do to correct that, is decide whether it's showing 2% of the real number of cases or 4%.
Stupidity really is a fatal disease.
No we don't because the graph shows deaths, not cases, dimwit.
You think the people dismissing the Chinese data aren't dismissing the number of Chinese cases, moron?
Interesting timing on the Labour leadership result. We all thought originally that the whole thing was ludicrously drawn out, that Labour would suffer.
Funny though how events in politics have a habit of seizing control. Had Starmer been announced 4 weeks ago I don't think anyone would have paid any attention. They still might not. But this Government is suddenly looking shaky. It's coming under fire from all quarters, including the Right. On cue along comes the most electable Labour leader since Tony Blair.
Yes - how dare the independent give over their opinion column to an academic/nurse specializing in mental health? Who do they think they are?
It's very good advice to reduce your alcohol consumption at the present time. In addition to the links between immune system & alcohol, cutting down on drinking could also help people lose weight, which is associated with bad outcomes if you do get COVID 19.
People should be able to drink or not drink as they wish, we have enough nanny state as it is. Unfortunately I am down to my last 2 bottles of beer, I may need assistance.
Yes - how dare the independent give over their opinion column to an academic/nurse specializing in mental health? Who do they think they are?
It's very good advice to reduce your alcohol consumption at the present time. In addition to the links between immune system & alcohol, cutting down on drinking could also help people lose weight, which is associated with bad outcomes if you do get COVID 19.
People should be able to drink or not drink as they wish, we have enough nanny state as it is. Unfortunately I am down to my last 2 bottles of beer, I may need assistance.
malc - the amazing Black Isle brewery beers can be bought online (via flavourly)
Posted on a Facebook page aimed the elderly "Grandson went to do a supermarket shop for us. He bought gin. ‘That’s not essential’ said the woman on the checkout. ‘Yes it is’ he said; ‘it’s for my Grannie’, ‘OK’ said the woman on the checkout!"
Grandson is, I believe, an adult.
Coming to it when halfwitted shop assistants are telling you what and what not is essential.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
China?
No reliable data.
Yeah - as opposed to the utterly truly reliably trustworthy data from the UK. All we have to do to correct that, is decide whether it's showing 2% of the real number of cases or 4%.
Stupidity really is a fatal disease.
No we don't because the graph shows deaths, not cases, dimwit.
You think the people dismissing the Chinese data aren't dismissing the number of Chinese cases, moron?
Sorry, that doesn't work. You are looking at a really, really simple graph of deaths and thinking it says something about cases. And then in the next breath calling someone else stupid.
"Two weeks ago, I predicted that we probably won’t be allowed out of our homes until late-June, and possibly July. This went against mainstream predictions and shocked a lot of people who were expecting this all to be over mid-April. Yesterday, the state of Virginia announced a stay-at-home order until June 10th."
David Sinclair, Harvard professor, author of Lifespan.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Swedes are anti-social buggers. Social distancing is their normal modus operandi.
When will people get this? Where Sweden is now is immaterial, the crunch for them is seeing how much later any bending of the line downwards comes. That will take weeks still.
My back of envelope R0 measure (new cases announced 31/3- 2/4 ÷ those announced 24-26/3) now at 2.31, down from 2.58 yesterday, and 3.25 at the beginning of this week.
On reporting date we're into post lockdown figures now, but on average a case reported on 24/3 will have onward infected most people before that date, and I'd be pretty sure onward infection time isn't as tightly distributed around 7 days as my measure allows for. I still expect my R0 to fall substantially in the next few days.
I suppose you mean R, seeing that R0 is the reproduction number in the absence of any interventions to reduce the spread.
But how anyone thinks they can calculate anything relating to the real spread of the virus from such wholly inadequate data - let alone daily changes (?!?) is beyond me.
The nanny state temperance lobby and its associated cranks never miss an opportunity to push their agenda.
Everyone should judge their own risks and their own circumstances. If you are young, female, reasonably fit with a BMI <25 and no underlying conditions like asthma or diabetes it would probably be an unnecessary precaution. If you tick 3/4 of those boxes likewise. If you don't, like me, you should really think about it.
Its not the nanny state, its common sense. </p>
You described me exactly there David so I can continue supping.
Latest figures log rate per million population. Italy definitely seems to be flattening off. Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken. (It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
We're still tracking extremely close to Italy + 15 days. Not sure exactly when our lockdown measures came into place vs theirs, though
It is interesting that Sweden's line is the same as other Countries
Why is that interesting? Which of the other countries had a lockdown in place early enough to be reducing deaths by that point in their line?
China?
No reliable data.
Yeah - as opposed to the utterly truly reliably trustworthy data from the UK. All we have to do to correct that, is decide whether it's showing 2% of the real number of cases or 4%.
Stupidity really is a fatal disease.
No we don't because the graph shows deaths, not cases, dimwit.
You think the people dismissing the Chinese data aren't dismissing the number of Chinese cases, moron?
Sorry, that doesn't work. You are looking at a really, really simple graph of deaths and thinking it says something about cases. And then in the next breath calling someone else stupid.
That's all a delusion on your part. I simply commented on how irrational it was to dismiss the Chinese data. Fool.
Comments
It's very good advice to reduce your alcohol consumption at the present time.
In addition to the links between immune system & alcohol, cutting down on drinking could also help people lose weight, which is associated with bad outcomes if you do get COVID 19.
Unfortunately working at home surrounded by snacks its not having the impact on my weight that I hoped and the lack of gyms is really not helping. But you do what you can.
How many Starmer votes did we hide down the back of the sofa?
There are some rum ones about.
Believe it or not, despite being absolutely minted, she's living in a caravan on her land! They sold their farmhouse and stables last year, keeping a few acres of land to build a new bungalow on. But planning was a nightmare and just after they were given planning this virus struck! So she's in the caravan isolating for a while yet!
Even in Dubai, the offies are staying open, they've even started doing home deliveries!
Italy definitely seems to be flattening off.
Most countries still on an exponential line regardless of steps taken, but that's no surprise at all when you think about it (the deaths being recorded today were probably from infections around 7th-11th of March. Realistically, only Italy has had enough time since lockdowns for any real effect to be taken.
(It would be good for journalists to point out the lag issue at some point)
Telling people forced to stay/walk at home, who have sporting events almost entirely absent, and who are understandably worried for themselves and others, to stop drinking is going to go down about as well as telling them to stop drinking coffee or eating chocolate.
But it will get clicks.
Same age; no blood clots..
https://twitter.com/USAmbDRC/status/1245691986310508545
Its not the nanny state, its common sense.
I’ve even been known to add it to the food.
On that basis Germany is a clear outlier of low deaths. Whether that is due to good practice or just the luck of having a low number of initial infections is difficult to tell at this stage however.
As an outsider it's all I know.
https://twitter.com/VogelsChantal/status/1245374840133083137
https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1245703179444146179
#CornyvirusPundemic
Of course, the US is a much more populous country now than it was in the 1930s. On the other hand, 2 weeks is a lot less than 4 years.
An absence of data is not a planning tool
On reporting date we're into post lockdown figures now, but on average a case reported on 24/3 will have onward infected most people before that date, and I'd be pretty sure onward infection time isn't as tightly distributed around 7 days as my measure allows for. I still expect my R0 to fall substantially in the next few days.
Stupidity really is a fatal disease.
That makes him an improvement.
https://twitter.com/bhp1905/status/1245665792076759042
"Grandson went to do a supermarket shop for us. He bought gin. ‘That’s not essential’ said the woman on the checkout. ‘Yes it is’ he said; ‘it’s for my Grannie’,
‘OK’ said the woman on the checkout!"
Grandson is, I believe, an adult.
Just keep her off the cheese, OK?
Oh, and other women’s husbands...
Funny though how events in politics have a habit of seizing control. Had Starmer been announced 4 weeks ago I don't think anyone would have paid any attention. They still might not. But this Government is suddenly looking shaky. It's coming under fire from all quarters, including the Right. On cue along comes the most electable Labour leader since Tony Blair.
Interesting ....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/02/after-coronavirus-left-cure-social-ills
https://www.blackislebrewery.com/
Ignore these puritan scolding numpties...
https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/1245711462359871488
David Sinclair, Harvard professor, author of Lifespan.
Head. Desk.
But how anyone thinks they can calculate anything relating to the real spread of the virus from such wholly inadequate data - let alone daily changes (?!?) is beyond me.