"people who tested positive for Coronavirus have died"
New methodology - will include suicides, RTC and old age.
Err. No. No-one is being tested apart from hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, and a few staff.
Err. Yes.
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
I live in Almeria in south-east Spain. Found out today that all of the Mayors agreed not to release local statistics of Covid 19 cases because 'it is not needed'. WTF. The UK has lousy weather but is not the worst place when it comes to transparency of information.
My friends parents are called Al and Maria, and bought a place there on the back of it!
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
"people who tested positive for Coronavirus have died"
New methodology - will include suicides, RTC and old age.
Err. No. No-one is being tested apart from hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, and a few staff.
Err. Yes.
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
The USA may have had the best health system in the sixties but not now. The USA performs worse on health outcomes than any of its rich world peers. The gap is also getting bigger as other countries improve outcomes while the American ones stay static.
The best description I have heard is that the USA has the best sick care....
I don't think that's true either, across the board. The USA has good treatment of diseases that are prevalent in normally healthy demographics - cancers in particular - because treatment is funded by workplace insurance schemes. It's woeful at treating chronic diseases due to age and poverty.
FWIW
Yes. But if you ran that stratified by insured/uninsured it would look a lot more favourable. For those insured patients, the US is very good. For the chunk of the population that are uninsured much less so. When you chuck that together you get poor outcomes on average.
If you were under a Rawlsian veil of ignorance I'd take my chances in Western Europe any day of the week.
"people who tested positive for Coronavirus have died"
New methodology - will include suicides, RTC and old age.
Err. No. No-one is being tested apart from hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, and a few staff.
Err. Yes.
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
Sure, the chattering classes will be affected big time, but if you are a self employed tradesman, for instance, with no savings (very common) then you are in big trouble now if you cannot work. And s/e people tend to regard their income as their turnover.
Looking at my s/e tax return, for example, Sunak is covering 80% of net proft, but above this line most of my outgoings are fixed and still have to be paid, Examples include: car tax, insurance and servicing, telephone, broadband, professional subscriptions, accountancy fees, computer costs, finance payments etc ets. Previously these fixed expenses were coming out of turnover. Now, during lockdown, they have to come out of net profit.
And this is where huge amounts of self employed will be caught out.
You see, those items should only BE business expenses. The clue of 'wholly and necessary' (or whatever the definition is - I'm an accountant, not a tax accountant) was there because they related to your business. In theory, if your business is gone, so as these expenses.
Ring your insurer and get the business cover taken off your car. Don't drive 100 miles to see a client. Ditch your 'work' mobile. Etc etc.
Except of course, whether accidently or deliberately (and I've seen a lot of the latter), huge amounts of personal expenditure ends up on SA tax returns.
No - these are fixed business expenditures. For example my car is apportioned 75% /25% business/personal. It is purely the 75% I`m talking about, in this example, and this sits above the net profit line not below it.
But surely therefore if you lose your business, this car running costs should come down proportionately? I know in reality, this won't happen, but there should be SOME saving (maybe not 75%, but still).
If the self-employed are honest, then the 80% offer of net profits should just about see them home.
If they haven't (and I've an ex-client who never was) then they are screwed as they're getting 80% of nothing.
"people who tested positive for Coronavirus have died"
New methodology - will include suicides, RTC and old age.
Err. No. No-one is being tested apart from hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, and a few staff.
Err. Yes.
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
Or it may just be the weekend effect, and death certificates completed on a Monday.
The CSO said to be careful reading day-by-day stats. We should listen to him. There is all sorts of boring reasons why looking at any particular day is unhelpful such as the reasons you highlight.
The trend over a decent time period is what is important.
Just to clarify, it is hospital deaths...from the Gradudaian.
A total of 1,651 people who have tested positive for coronavirus in England have died, up 367 from 1,284 on Monday, NHS England said.
NHS England said those who died were all in hospital and their ages ranged from 19 to 98. All but 28 of the patients had underlying health conditions. The 28 who did not were aged between 19 and 91.
So to clarify if a fit and healthy 19 year old has died, the answer unfortunately appears to be yes.
Sure, the chattering classes will be affected big time, but if you are a self employed tradesman, for instance, with no savings (very common) then you are in big trouble now if you cannot work. And s/e people tend to regard their income as their turnover.
Looking at my s/e tax return, for example, Sunak is covering 80% of net proft, but above this line most of my outgoings are fixed and still have to be paid, Examples include: car tax, insurance and servicing, telephone, broadband, professional subscriptions, accountancy fees, computer costs, finance payments etc ets. Previously these fixed expenses were coming out of turnover. Now, during lockdown, they have to come out of net profit.
And this is where huge amounts of self employed will be caught out.
You see, those items should only BE business expenses. The clue of 'wholly and necessary' (or whatever the definition is - I'm an accountant, not a tax accountant) was there because they related to your business. In theory, if your business is gone, so as these expenses.
Ring your insurer and get the business cover taken off your car. Don't drive 100 miles to see a client. Ditch your 'work' mobile. Etc etc.
Except of course, whether accidently or deliberately (and I've seen a lot of the latter), huge amounts of personal expenditure ends up on SA tax returns.
No - these are fixed business expenditures. For example my car is apportioned 75% /25% business/personal. It is purely the 75% I`m talking about, in this example, and this sits above the net profit line not below it.
But surely therefore if you lose your business, this car running costs should come down proportionately? I know in reality, this won't happen, but there should be SOME saving (maybe not 75%, but still).
If the self-employed are honest, then the 80% offer of net profits should just about see them home.
If they haven't (and I've an ex-client who never was) then they are screwed as they're getting 80% of nothing.
I agree with you with regard to fuel expenses - which I deliberately didn`t include as a fixed cost (because they are not). I was refering to car tax/insurance/servicing.
"people who tested positive for Coronavirus have died"
New methodology - will include suicides, RTC and old age.
Err. No. No-one is being tested apart from hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, and a few staff.
Err. Yes.
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
I will never complain about the coffee in the reading room again. Well, not for at least a month.
How anyone could want to work from home all the time is beyond me.
Agreed. Its terrible. And unproductive. I have a new respect for the authors on this site who have the self discipline to apply themselves consistently to their craft in that way.
Is it that unproductive though? How many people working from home are still doing what it takes to do their job?
One of the big changes that might come out of this is the realisation that many can work four day weeks.
I could, but not as productively as I wouldnt enjoy my job as much.
The only 'positive' is that its Tuesday reporting for Monday. I said last week that weekend reporting is always down. Too many people with 'Monday to Friday, 9 to 5' attitudes, even in healthcare. I think the weekly averages is what really matters.
"people who tested positive for Coronavirus have died"
New methodology - will include suicides, RTC and old age.
Err. No. No-one is being tested apart from hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, and a few staff.
Err. Yes.
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
The only 'positive' is that its Tuesday reporting for Monday. I said last week that weekend reporting is always down. Too many people with 'Monday to Friday, 9 to 5' attitudes, even in healthcare. I think the weekly averages is what really matters.
Quite possible. A couple of medic friends mentioned this, and @Foxy already alluded to it, but obviously need to see what happens tomorrow to know whether this is indeed the case.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Why are they still paying these obscene wages? Presumably because they are worried other teams will snatch players away?
It’s ridiculous and offensive. All the pro teams in Europe should get together and say We are slashing players wages (over £25k a year) by 90%. Job done. Teams saved.
The very least they could do is follow the government furloughed idea and pay them 80% of their wages upto a max of (insert still eye watering amount), and use the 20% saved to give to the rest of the staff.
Why are they still paying these obscene wages? Presumably because they are worried other teams will snatch players away?
It’s ridiculous and offensive. All the pro teams in Europe should get together and say We are slashing players wages (over £25k a year) by 90%. Job done. Teams saved.
Sacrifice the millionaires to save the billionaires who own the clubs?
One of my colleagues with the same symptoms as me tested positive today. That serology will be interesting when it comes.
1 in 3 or 1 in 4 false negatives.
That's why they haven't done them for front-line staff don't you think? Better off sitting it out at home for 14-days unless there is no-one left at hospital. As we near the peak then that will change.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
"people who tested positive for Coronavirus have died"
New methodology - will include suicides, RTC and old age.
Err. No. No-one is being tested apart from hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, and a few staff.
Err. Yes.
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
Why would RTA victims, heart attacks or suicides be swabbed?
I thought everyone who died was being tested
2,000 people a day die in the UK, if we tested all of them, then that would take a large preparation of our testing capability up. Of course if we could had more test kits.......
Why are they still paying these obscene wages? Presumably because they are worried other teams will snatch players away?
It’s ridiculous and offensive. All the pro teams in Europe should get together and say We are slashing players wages (over £25k a year) by 90%. Job done. Teams saved.
Sacrifice the millionaires to save the billionaires who own the clubs?
Except, virtually every EPL club is already subsidised by these billionaires. Roman Abramovich has put £1bn into Chelsea out of his own pocket.
The only 'positive' is that its Tuesday reporting for Monday. I said last week that weekend reporting is always down. Too many people with 'Monday to Friday, 9 to 5' attitudes, even in healthcare. I think the weekly averages is what really matters.
Historically you are likelier to die during the weekend at hospital...mainly because of staffing issues...but registering the deaths could be the lag....
However, the graph appears to be looking very similar to Italy's and Spains...we are 14/15 days behind Italy, and 8/9 behind Spain....and about 3 days behind France....
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Does he have all that fixed an ideology, or is he mainly a controversialist? I appreciate his controversialism isn't totally scatter-gun and falls in the broad categories of anti-PC and/or libertarian but he doesn't get paid for holding pragmatic, conventional wisdom views and so essentially doesn't hold them (or at least keeps quiet about them).
I know Toby's father thought he was doing him a favour when he got him into Oxford with crap A levels, but as it's turned out he'd have done him much more of favour if he told him 'sorry and all that, but you'll have to get yourself a job.' Particularly if it had turned out to be in somewhere run by a manager with a sarcastic turn of phrase who didn't suffer fools gladly.
That’s just ridiculous, a prime example of manufacturing outrage from yoking together a couple of things that someone doesn’t like. For me, personally, I think the lockdown was a week too late and I’m prepared to carry on for much, much longer. As I had to self isolate before I’ve already coped with 19 days and I’ve only felt the need to step out of the house once. I appreciate that this sort of self sacrifice is anathema to many but, and it’s not a term that I would normally use, the snowflakes who can’t cope with this need to get a grip. Yes, there are a minority who do have a real issue with it but the vast majority of people moaning, are those who didn’t want to do it in the first place and are trying to claim that it won’t work now that it exists.
This idea that people can’t behave the way that is needed is missing one key thing, in times of crisis people behaviour need to change. Enough of the commentariat moaning about how terrible it is that they have had to change their behaviour.
The problem with your view is that the risk of complete economic collapse will grow very quickly and very fast. The government has neither unlimited reserves or credit to feed and care for the people indefinitely. I say this with no pleasure but there it is.
We’ve been told three to six months as a plausible length of time. That the government have announced plans for both the employed and self employed, suggests that they have the figures that show they can cope with that sort of outlay (you could call it investment, given that the aim is to protect businesses). These promises are being looked on enviously in other countries and it is, to me, the real strength of the government’s current approach, suggesting, ‘look, we’ve got your back’.
Goodness - if they can do that I am seriously impressed. Not sure Spain could do it - the only good news I can see hear is that we're a bit nearer the peak. However, for those with businesses here I think the summer is probably gone.
What sort of plans does Spain have to support businesses? We just hear about the health issues from most other countries but it would be interesting to compare.
Quite a lot similar to the UK but less extensive wrt self-employed. At the end of the day Spain lacks the means and the health service here is now in a more parlous state.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Samsung Display to end all LCD production by end 2020. Samsung Display’s cross-town rival LG Display Co Ltd said earlier this year that it will halt domestic production of LCD TV panels by the end of 2020.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
I'm interested, Rich. When and how were the initial estimates produced? were they released after 30 years (presumably not at the time)?
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
You must know that for Alistair it is still all about one thing - the wound that shows no sign of healing.
Why are they still paying these obscene wages? Presumably because they are worried other teams will snatch players away?
It’s ridiculous and offensive. All the pro teams in Europe should get together and say We are slashing players wages (over £25k a year) by 90%. Job done. Teams saved.
Sacrifice the millionaires to save the billionaires who own the clubs?
Except, virtually every EPL club is already subsidised by these billionaires. Roman Abramovich has put £1bn into Chelsea out of his own pocket.
My own club has suspended direct debits for season ticket holders, and has promised to refund pro-rata for the 4 remaining home games if the season is unfinished. We have good owners, but they must be hurting financially themselves, as their business is airport duty free.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
Interesting but what were the assumptions? Was that also a top end estimate without defences factored in, for example?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
Today’s cabinet was the first-ever fully-digital one, as last time Boris, Matt Hancock, Mark Sedwill and Dominic Cummings were all physically present in the Cabinet Room. The government has also ditched Zoom for Skype Business after Zoom’s lack of security was highlighted
Why are they still paying these obscene wages? Presumably because they are worried other teams will snatch players away?
It’s ridiculous and offensive. All the pro teams in Europe should get together and say We are slashing players wages (over £25k a year) by 90%. Job done. Teams saved.
I agree with you about the morals but unfortunately the practicalities would make that impossible. These relationships are bound by contracts and the clubs cannot simply decide to renege on those contracts So for as long as the current contracts are in existence they would need to carry on paying those wages.
Now what I would agree with is that they should make sure that next time a contract comes up for renewal the reward is massively reduced. But of course they won't do that as they are frightened of losing players.
And all the clubs agreeing a commercial decision like that would be a cartel.
The only way this can really be solved would be with a wages cap imposed by the authorities.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical. The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Well my local hospital, Torrevieja on the Costa Blanca has 17 covid 19 cases in icu and 70 requiring hospitalization. This taking almost all of the 1000+ staff to cope and additional resource has now been drafted in. The cases must come from further up the coast because south of Torrevieja there has only been a handful of cases.
Is there any information about the percentage of these cases who are expats?
Where I am further to the south there is nothing on the various news channels and forums suggesting any cases - but we have very few here in total. On the costas blanca and del sol I guess there must be several caeses.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
Nah, yew would just start a run of hedging based puns...
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
Fine by me but it takes all sorts. Some on here are quite particular and get upset by the use of commas. Naming no names.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
Rise above it, @BigRich. Posters should be reading the substance. Express yourself.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
What you've written is fine and the typos are understandable in the context. Don't feel bad about posting!
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
Interesting but what were the assumptions? Was that also a top end estimate without defences factored in, for example?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
I think that high casualties were expected initially, hence evacuation of children, and issuing of gas masks to all.
Indeed the NHS has its roots in the nationalisation of London hospitals for anticipated mass bombing casualties.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
I'm interested, Rich. When and how were the initial estimates produced? were they released after 30 years (presumably not at the time)?
I've read that number in 2 books on the Battle of Britten, sorry don't have the response here and a Quick google has not helped, so understand if wish to class it a 'Sara from Facebook' comment. as I recall an order was placed for that many coffins, after which mass graves where the plan.
Another related event was the German bombing of Rotterdam. when the first report of the bombing reached the German government the estimate was of 30,000 dead and the government decided to negotiate a surrender. when the bodys where counted and Missing people it was about 900, still a lot but about 3% of initall estimates
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
Nope, it is all understandable. Just crack on as you have been doing and don't worry about the comments.
Why are they still paying these obscene wages? Presumably because they are worried other teams will snatch players away?
It’s ridiculous and offensive. All the pro teams in Europe should get together and say We are slashing players wages (over £25k a year) by 90%. Job done. Teams saved.
I agree with you about the morals but unfortunately the practicalities would make that impossible. These relationships are bound by contracts and the clubs cannot simply decide to renege on those contracts So for as long as the current contracts are in existence they would need to carry on paying those wages.
Now what I would agree with is that they should make sure that next time a contract comes up for renewal the reward is massively reduced. But of course they won't do that as they are frightened of losing players.
And all the clubs agreeing a commercial decision like that would be a cartel.
The only way this can really be solved would be with a wages cap imposed by the authorities.
And it should be.
Some clubs have sorted out it mutually with the players. Some players have given very generously to covid related causes. Others less so.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
I've had absolutely no problems understanding your posts (apart from disagreeing with some of your views!).
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
Interesting but what were the assumptions? Was that also a top end estimate without defences factored in, for example?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
The estimates I understand where based on the bombing in Spain in the civil war there. However they may not have been accurate for a number of reasons,
1) The Journalists where often not in the towns affected. and relying on second hand info.
2) There was a lot of incentive to exaggerate the numbers killed to get international sympathy.
3) Some bombing raids killed nobody, therefor, where not reported and therefor average killed per plane, killed per tone of bomes where squid.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Does he have all that fixed an ideology, or is he mainly a controversialist? I appreciate his controversialism isn't totally scatter-gun and falls in the broad categories of anti-PC and/or libertarian but he doesn't get paid for holding pragmatic, conventional wisdom views and so essentially doesn't hold them (or at least keeps quiet about them).
Fair point, and Young does seem to choose the most incendiary idea that he can find. Johnson may be many things but he's not like that and doesn't actually appear to wedded to anything, really; the living embodiment of the 'if you don't like what I say, I have other opinions' school.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Would be surprising if there wasn't a feature to only allow certain people to join, regardless of whether or not the meeting ID is known.
Of course there is it's called a password. I bet Boris chose abcdefg though
Nah, Boris would definitely choose something Latin or Greek.
Greek is problematic- I once thought all my bank accounts had been hacked because I forgot i had set the keyboard to type in Greek and you can't see what is happening because the password field doesn't show you.
As a teacher, I get to read a lot of work from those with dyslexia and it's not a problem. I've occasionally scribed for those where it gets in the way of them writing quickly enough and their ability to order their thoughts and articulate them is a marvel. Scruffy handwriting, however......
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
Interesting but what were the assumptions? Was that also a top end estimate without defences factored in, for example?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
The estimates I understand where based on the bombing in Spain in the civil war there. However they may not have been accurate for a number of reasons,
1) The Journalists where often not in the towns affected. and relying on second hand info.
2) There was a lot of incentive to exaggerate the numbers killed to get international sympathy.
3) Some bombing raids killed nobody, therefor, where not reported and therefor average killed per plane, killed per tone of bomes where squid.
All perfectly understandable. Don't spend a moment longer worrying about how you write your posts, just keep doing the same thing.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
Interesting but what were the assumptions? Was that also a top end estimate without defences factored in, for example?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
The estimates I understand where based on the bombing in Spain in the civil war there. However they may not have been accurate for a number of reasons,
1) The Journalists where often not in the towns affected. and relying on second hand info.
2) There was a lot of incentive to exaggerate the numbers killed to get international sympathy.
3) Some bombing raids killed nobody, therefor, where not reported and therefor average killed per plane, killed per tone of bomes where squid.
Were skewed?
No one has a problem with your posting style and I think those who do point out errors usually don't realise you have an underlying problem.
36.5%, if I've calculated it correctly, is a new high in the +ve rate for the test. Bearing in mind a false negative rate of 25% has been quoted, it would suggest almost half of those tested have the virus.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.
Thank you all for the support expressed for my 'miserable' spelling, both from veteran posters I have been enjoying reading for years, and newer posters I am still getting to know. I will try not to 'take the Micky', but good to know that without getting toyed up wondering which witch is wich.
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
Interesting but what were the assumptions? Was that also a top end estimate without defences factored in, for example?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
The estimates I understand where based on the bombing in Spain in the civil war there. However they may not have been accurate for a number of reasons,
1) The Journalists where often not in the towns affected. and relying on second hand info.
2) There was a lot of incentive to exaggerate the numbers killed to get international sympathy.
3) Some bombing raids killed nobody, therefor, where not reported and therefor average killed per plane, killed per tone of bomes where squid.
On a walking tour of Alicante a couple of years ago they took us to a memorial for the victims of a bombing raid on the market place which probably killed more civilians than the one in Guernica. Of course it didn't have arguably the most famous painting of the 20thC connected to it.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
I've had absolutely no problems understanding your posts (apart from disagreeing with some of your views!).
36.5%, if I've calculated it correctly, is a new high in the +ve rate for the test. Bearing in mind a false positive rate of 25% has been quoted, it would suggest almost half of those tested have the virus.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.
False negatives (people testing negative, but who do have disease) not false positives at 25%. As the test is for COVID19 RNA, there is probably a very low false positive rate (test positive, but really dont have it).
Comments
The reported death toll from coronavirus in the UK is set to increase beyond the NHS’s daily tally on Tuesday when fatalities outside of hospitals are counted for the first time.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/covid-19-deaths-outside-hospitals-to-be-included-in-uk-tally-for-first-time
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
A good listen is:
https://reason.com/podcast/the-cdc-and-fda-have-failed-on-coronavirus/
or Read:
https://reason.com/2020/03/27/is-the-cdc-to-blame-for-the-lack-of-adequate-coronavirus-testing/
Or it may just be the weekend effect, and death certificates completed on a Monday.
https://twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1244984961649774595?s=20
If you were under a Rawlsian veil of ignorance I'd take my chances in Western Europe any day of the week.
Why would RTA victims, heart attacks or suicides be swabbed?
https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/1244938522672467969?s=20
If the self-employed are honest, then the 80% offer of net profits should just about see them home.
If they haven't (and I've an ex-client who never was) then they are screwed as they're getting 80% of nothing.
The trend over a decent time period is what is important.
A total of 1,651 people who have tested positive for coronavirus in England have died, up 367 from 1,284 on Monday, NHS England said.
NHS England said those who died were all in hospital and their ages ranged from 19 to 98. All but 28 of the patients had underlying health conditions. The 28 who did not were aged between 19 and 91.
So to clarify if a fit and healthy 19 year old has died, the answer unfortunately appears to be yes.
https://twitter.com/tprstly/status/1244987463585665026
That's why they haven't done them for front-line staff don't you think? Better off sitting it out at home for 14-days unless there is no-one left at hospital. As we near the peak then that will change.
However, the graph appears to be looking very similar to Italy's and Spains...we are 14/15 days behind Italy, and 8/9 behind Spain....and about 3 days behind France....
Particularly if it had turned out to be in somewhere run by a manager with a sarcastic turn of phrase who didn't suffer fools gladly.
The companies expect to produce 1,500 by the end of April, 12,000 by the end of May and 50,000 by July 4, officials said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/ford-ge-plan-to-produce-50000-ventilators-in-100-days.html
Hmmm....at the rate is it going across the US, by the time they have produced those, it is going to be too late.
Samsung Display to end all LCD production by end 2020. Samsung Display’s cross-town rival LG Display Co Ltd said earlier this year that it will halt domestic production of LCD TV panels by the end of 2020.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-samsung-display-lcd-idUSKBN21I0BY
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
Today’s cabinet was the first-ever fully-digital one, as last time Boris, Matt Hancock, Mark Sedwill and Dominic Cummings were all physically present in the Cabinet Room. The government has also ditched Zoom for Skype Business after Zoom’s lack of security was highlighted
https://order-order.com/2020/03/31/uks-first-ever-digital-cabinet/
Edit - Either that screenshot is from another meeting or Staines is talking nonsense.
Hold on, who is in the cabinet room? Is Big Dom in that picture at the back?
Now what I would agree with is that they should make sure that next time a contract comes up for renewal the reward is massively reduced. But of course they won't do that as they are frightened of losing players.
And all the clubs agreeing a commercial decision like that would be a cartel.
The only way this can really be solved would be with a wages cap imposed by the authorities.
And it should be.
Indeed the NHS has its roots in the nationalisation of London hospitals for anticipated mass bombing casualties.
http://www.nhshistory.net/ems_1939-1945.htm
Another related event was the German bombing of Rotterdam. when the first report of the bombing reached the German government the estimate was of 30,000 dead and the government decided to negotiate a surrender. when the bodys where counted and Missing people it was about 900, still a lot but about 3% of initall estimates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_bombing_of_Rotterdam#Aftermath.
1) The Journalists where often not in the towns affected. and relying on second hand info.
2) There was a lot of incentive to exaggerate the numbers killed to get international sympathy.
3) Some bombing raids killed nobody, therefor, where not reported and therefor average killed per plane, killed per tone of bomes where squid.
Keep on posting as you do.
People be nice and understanding towards @BigRich
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244998310735331330?s=20
Your opinions, however...
No one has a problem with your posting style and I think those who do point out errors usually don't realise you have an underlying problem.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.