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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ever since the first LAB leadership YouGov poll came out the r

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ever since the first LAB leadership YouGov poll came out the result has never really been in doubt

Ever since that first YouGov labour leadership poll come out well we were still LST on a new year break there has never been any real question that the next leader of the Labour Party would be the former director public prosecutions sir Keir starmer. Op that first poll came as quite a shock it will be recalled, because the Assumption was that at the candidate favoured by the current leadership, Rebecca long Bailey, wood secure the votes that had add boot what they’re man to pass in the party in the 2015 and 2016 leadership elections.

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    第一
    (Chinese lie)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    FPT:

    On the cancelled boundary review at 600, the Torres would have won less seats (352 vs 364) but would have had a bigger majority as Lab would only have had 174, the SNP 47 and the LDs 7. A few that would have switched to Con are Westmoreland, Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test

    In a review based on 650 seats the Cons will likely gain seats as there will be new seats created in the shires e.g. Berks, Bucks, Oxon each gain one. The main area of Tory losses will be Wales, which loses its over representation

    Do we know how many seats Wales will get?

    Incidentally, I am not at all sure I agree with you that the Tories would suffer major losses in Wales. On the 600 notional boundaries Labour took an absolute pounding - eight down due largely to consolidation in the Valleys - but the Tories only lost two. The score would have been Lab 14, Tory 12, PC 2 and 2 toss-ups.
  • FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    Why so little pasta? No panic buying skill here.

    Interesting to see from the more detailed reports coming in, that the panic buying PANIC!!!!!!!!! was mostly people increasing their weekly shops moderately to stock up.

    Once again, useless reporting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Blimey, autocorrect really hates Sir Keir Starmer, doesn't it? Kiss drama, guest armour...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    Why so little pasta? No panic buying skill here.

    Interesting to see from the more detailed reports coming in, that the panic buying PANIC!!!!!!!!! was mostly people increasing their weekly shops moderately to stock up.

    Once again, useless reporting.
    That doesn't surprise me. It is a function of how supermarkets work these days, that they place a huge amount of confidence in their data and recording systems so that they accurately estimate demand. People each exceeding that demand by a modest margin will soon cause a shortage in a shop....which in turn cause people to go and try and get said item as there is a perceived shortage.

    It looks like basically people shopped as if it were Christmas, but the stores were obviously setup for usual March demand.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
  • ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    On the cancelled boundary review at 600, the Torres would have won less seats (352 vs 364) but would have had a bigger majority as Lab would only have had 174, the SNP 47 and the LDs 7. A few that would have switched to Con are Westmoreland, Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test

    In a review based on 650 seats the Cons will likely gain seats as there will be new seats created in the shires e.g. Berks, Bucks, Oxon each gain one. The main area of Tory losses will be Wales, which loses its over representation

    Do we know how many seats Wales will get?

    Incidentally, I am not at all sure I agree with you that the Tories would suffer major losses in Wales. On the 600 notional boundaries Labour took an absolute pounding - eight down due largely to consolidation in the Valleys - but the Tories only lost two. The score would have been Lab 14, Tory 12, PC 2 and 2 toss-ups.
    On the 2018 boundaries, Wales was cut from 40 to 29. On 650 seats, Wales will probably get 32 seats +-1. Not sure where the extra 3 seats go.

    The hardest seat for the Cons to hold will be Ynys Mon, which likely has to have Bangor or some of the mainland added.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    FPT:

    I like the way the King of Thailand is coping with the situation. He has, apparently taken over a whole hotel in Garmisch-Partenkrichen and moved his staff and 20 concubines there.

    He's definitely the coming man in this crisis.

    The disappointment is he didn't move to Phuket.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    Morning all. Reflecting on very low oil prices and considering the need to plan for unexpected or rare global events; is now a time the UK should increase its strategic oil reserves? According to a quick news review I believe we have not committed to following EU requirements for 90 days minimum supply going forwards, but surely now is a good time to build up our reserves for potential rainy days in the future?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    On the cancelled boundary review at 600, the Torres would have won less seats (352 vs 364) but would have had a bigger majority as Lab would only have had 174, the SNP 47 and the LDs 7. A few that would have switched to Con are Westmoreland, Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test

    In a review based on 650 seats the Cons will likely gain seats as there will be new seats created in the shires e.g. Berks, Bucks, Oxon each gain one. The main area of Tory losses will be Wales, which loses its over representation

    Do we know how many seats Wales will get?

    Incidentally, I am not at all sure I agree with you that the Tories would suffer major losses in Wales. On the 600 notional boundaries Labour took an absolute pounding - eight down due largely to consolidation in the Valleys - but the Tories only lost two. The score would have been Lab 14, Tory 12, PC 2 and 2 toss-ups.
    On the 2018 boundaries, Wales was cut from 40 to 29. On 650 seats, Wales will probably get 32 seats +-1. Not sure where the extra 3 seats go.

    The hardest seat for the Cons to hold will be Ynys Mon, which likely has to have Bangor or some of the mainland added.
    Ynys Mon is pretty well a three way marginal.
  • Jonathan said:

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
    It is a graphic description of suffering. Thank you for your kind wishes

    Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer

    Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    (FPT) Korea were very lucky, as well as prepared.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/30/asia-pacific/south-korea-emergency-exercise-coronavirus-testing-containment/
    SEOUL – A South Korean tabletop exercise on emergency responses to a fictional mysterious outbreak led directly to tools the country deployed less than a month later to manage the arrival and spread of the coronavirus, one of the experts involved said

    According to an undisclosed government document, on Dec. 17 two dozen leading South Korean infectious diseases specialists tackled a worrying scenario: a South Korean family contracts pneumonia after a trip to China, where cases of an unidentified disease had arisen.

    The hypothetical disease quickly spreads among the colleagues of the family members and medical workers who treated them. In response, the team of experts at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) developed an algorithm to find the pathogen and its origin, as well as testing techniques.

    Those measures were mobilized in real life when a first suspected coronavirus patient appeared in South Korea on Jan. 20, the document said.

    "Looking back over the past 20 years, humans were most tormented by either influenza or coronaviruses, and we're relatively doing well on influenza but had been worried about the possibility of the outbreak of a novel coronavirus," said Lee Sang-won, one of the KCDC experts who led the drill....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    On the cancelled boundary review at 600, the Torres would have won less seats (352 vs 364) but would have had a bigger majority as Lab would only have had 174, the SNP 47 and the LDs 7. A few that would have switched to Con are Westmoreland, Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test

    In a review based on 650 seats the Cons will likely gain seats as there will be new seats created in the shires e.g. Berks, Bucks, Oxon each gain one. The main area of Tory losses will be Wales, which loses its over representation

    Do we know how many seats Wales will get?

    Incidentally, I am not at all sure I agree with you that the Tories would suffer major losses in Wales. On the 600 notional boundaries Labour took an absolute pounding - eight down due largely to consolidation in the Valleys - but the Tories only lost two. The score would have been Lab 14, Tory 12, PC 2 and 2 toss-ups.
    On the 2018 boundaries, Wales was cut from 40 to 29. On 650 seats, Wales will probably get 32 seats +-1. Not sure where the extra 3 seats go.

    The hardest seat for the Cons to hold will be Ynys Mon, which likely has to have Bangor or some of the mainland added.
    That's one of the two tossups I had in mind. I would expect that to go Plaid. Llanelli was the other one, surprising though I found that. I would have expected Labour to hold, but on the boundaries it was no gimme. Newport didn't look terribly easy for Labour either, but ultimately they should have had enough votes to hang on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    A cautionary tale...

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
    On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir’s conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus,” practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.

    “I’m planning on being there this Tuesday March 10, and hoping many of you will be, too,” he wrote.

    Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

    “It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

    After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

    Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

    The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

    “That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.

    In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    On the cancelled boundary review at 600, the Torres would have won less seats (352 vs 364) but would have had a bigger majority as Lab would only have had 174, the SNP 47 and the LDs 7. A few that would have switched to Con are Westmoreland, Plymouth Sutton and Southampton Test

    In a review based on 650 seats the Cons will likely gain seats as there will be new seats created in the shires e.g. Berks, Bucks, Oxon each gain one. The main area of Tory losses will be Wales, which loses its over representation

    Do we know how many seats Wales will get?

    Incidentally, I am not at all sure I agree with you that the Tories would suffer major losses in Wales. On the 600 notional boundaries Labour took an absolute pounding - eight down due largely to consolidation in the Valleys - but the Tories only lost two. The score would have been Lab 14, Tory 12, PC 2 and 2 toss-ups.
    On the 2018 boundaries, Wales was cut from 40 to 29. On 650 seats, Wales will probably get 32 seats +-1. Not sure where the extra 3 seats go.

    The hardest seat for the Cons to hold will be Ynys Mon, which likely has to have Bangor or some of the mainland added.
    Ynys Mon is pretty well a three way marginal.
    Ynys Mon a Bangor would not be three way, but it would be very close between Labour and Plaid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT) Korea were very lucky, as well as prepared.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/30/asia-pacific/south-korea-emergency-exercise-coronavirus-testing-containment/
    SEOUL – A South Korean tabletop exercise on emergency responses to a fictional mysterious outbreak led directly to tools the country deployed less than a month later to manage the arrival and spread of the coronavirus, one of the experts involved said

    According to an undisclosed government document, on Dec. 17 two dozen leading South Korean infectious diseases specialists tackled a worrying scenario: a South Korean family contracts pneumonia after a trip to China, where cases of an unidentified disease had arisen.

    The hypothetical disease quickly spreads among the colleagues of the family members and medical workers who treated them. In response, the team of experts at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) developed an algorithm to find the pathogen and its origin, as well as testing techniques.

    Those measures were mobilized in real life when a first suspected coronavirus patient appeared in South Korea on Jan. 20, the document said.

    "Looking back over the past 20 years, humans were most tormented by either influenza or coronaviruses, and we're relatively doing well on influenza but had been worried about the possibility of the outbreak of a novel coronavirus," said Lee Sang-won, one of the KCDC experts who led the drill....

    The fact they had SARs and MERs means they have been on height alert for years. And even with all this and the "lucky" timing of this exercise, without the law / tech in place to spy on their citizens, they couldn't have contract traced like they have.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/australia-bcg-vaccine-trial-covid-19/

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/have-found-missing-ingredient-coronavirus-vaccine/

    Loving the theory that the BCG vaccine for TB given to everybody in the UK born up to about 1990 has a protective effect. Spain and italy didn't give it, Japan did.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One of my juniors is 95% certain to have Covid-19. Her mother and grandmother already are confirmed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    edited March 2020
    James_M said:

    Morning all. Reflecting on very low oil prices and considering the need to plan for unexpected or rare global events; is now a time the UK should increase its strategic oil reserves? According to a quick news review I believe we have not committed to following EU requirements for 90 days minimum supply going forwards, but surely now is a good time to build up our reserves for potential rainy days in the future?

    Oil is about to be pretty much free, as everyone's storage fills up in the producer countries. Anyone with capacity to store oil should be watching closely for the opportunity to fill up reserves.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/oil-prices-sink-17-year-low/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    It did make me chuckle when I last went to the supermarket some 4 weeks ago, that they had stripped all the crappy dried pasta, but a) left the better stuff and b) hardly touched the sauces.

    I thought that 5kg of Penne is going to be hard going.
  • At the risk of a ban, Mike that post could have done with a proof read.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    One of my juniors is 95% certain to have Covid-19. Her mother and grandmother already are confirmed.

    Given that the real number who have it in the UK is easily more than a million now, the chances of somebody you known has it I think are pretty much guaranteed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
    It is a graphic description of suffering. Thank you for your kind wishes

    Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer

    Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
    Acutely aware life is precious and fragile, especially having lost mum to to Leukaemia at Xmas. Goodness knows what we would be doing with her now. The ITU experience is live in my imagination. Meanwhile I am dreading the call from Dads care home and pondering breaking law to extract him and care for him if necessary. Also figuring out how to shield wife on MS immunosuppressive therapy whilst juggling two very bored teenage boys. All the while worrying what happens to them if I were to draw the short straw.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Turns out GM was already working on making ventilators when Trump attacked them:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Britain’s first coronavirus field hospital will treat up to 4,000 previously fit and healthy people struck down by Covid-19 once it opens, with sicker patients who are more likely to die being cared for in normal NHS hospitals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/nightingale-hospital-in-london-to-treat-less-critical-covid-19-cases
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    One of my juniors is 95% certain to have Covid-19. Her mother and grandmother already are confirmed.

    My count amongst family and friends is 7.

    A big % since my circle is not wide.

    No hospital time, thankfully.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441

    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?

    Moving forward, I hope we keep reporting numbers from the hospitals - since this will allow us to work out how the epidemic is evolving on a like-for-like basis.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?

    This is the same way that excess deaths are calculated with seasonal flu.

    In Italy last year only 500 died of the flu having tested positive, the rest of the 8000 deaths were presumed. It seems reasonable to apply the same approach, and I expect all countries will do so in time.

    As only inpatients are being tested at present, UK community deaths are certainly being ignored, but could be important markers as we shift back to a containment approach after the peak.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    Turns out GM was already working on making ventilators when Trump attacked them:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html

    The way this is being politicised at every stage in the US really isn't good, but in an election year no-one seems willing to suspend politics as usual.

    It's been reported today that people are screaming about the FDA's temporary approval of malaria drugs for testing against coronavirus - for no other reason that Trump mentioned it at a press conference, and they don't want to see him get the credit.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    I am guessing there is no standard way to measure Covid-19 deaths and that each country does it differently. If so, aren't comparisons entirely meaningless?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    kinabalu said:

    One of my juniors is 95% certain to have Covid-19. Her mother and grandmother already are confirmed.

    My count amongst family and friends is 7.

    A big % since my circle is not wide.

    No hospital time, thankfully.
    Have you considered that perhaps you might be a super spreader?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    No one will be interested in anything Keir has to say until the autumn at the earliest.

    He'll be better off just securing position at Labour HQ behind the scenes and in building up a internal team and shadow cab before doing anything public oriented, especially in terms of policy etc.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I heard that too. If you believe it, a few extra shops and a wee bit extra on everyone’s shop is enough to clean the shelves. I think they said March was a record retail month for supermarkets, so it’s not the level of individual hoarding of greater quantities, those greater amounts neatly spread out not only in a non descriptive way, but impossible to stop by say limiting (belatedly) to just two of the same item.

    In short it’s a media myth there was panic buying. The public smartly saw the way the wind was blowing, so did a few extra shops with a few extra items in it. And there was no greediness causing the shelves to bare to cry into a smart phone about, it was everyone taking just one item more or more regularly than normal, and not building a hoard at all.

    Frankly the R4 program used one set of data and it was spun by the industry guy in a particular way, so I’m making a decision to chew but not swallow.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    Perhaps the government could set up a scheme for them too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    I am still not convinced that all of Starmer's votes won't have been lost in the post and as a result Long Bailey will be declared the winner.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Foxy said:

    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?

    This is the same way that excess deaths are calculated with seasonal flu.

    In Italy last year only 500 died of the flu having tested positive, the rest of the 8000 deaths were presumed. It seems reasonable to apply the same approach, and I expect all countries will do so in time.

    As only inpatients are being tested at present, UK community deaths are certainly being ignored, but could be important markers as we shift back to a containment approach after the peak.
    I think that is fair enough as long as we make this clear, i.e number died confirmed in hospital vs the wider community presumed, as we know how much the media love to compare apples with oranges.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
    It is a graphic description of suffering. Thank you for your kind wishes

    Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer

    Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
    Acutely aware life is precious and fragile, especially having lost mum to to Leukaemia at Xmas. Goodness knows what we would be doing with her now. The ITU experience is live in my imagination. Meanwhile I am dreading the call from Dads care home and pondering breaking law to extract him and care for him if necessary. Also figuring out how to shield wife on MS immunosuppressive therapy whilst juggling two very bored teenage boys. All the while worrying what happens to them if I were to draw the short straw.

    My sister finished her final cancer treatments in February. Thank God she did. I can only imagine how awful it must be for those having to go through the same now.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    Between 25-40% of calories were coming from outside the supermarket supply chain. Add in people will want stuff that lasts as long as possible (the opposite of what the smaller metro/local shops have encouraged for the last decade) and it is not surprising stock would be under pressure even before significant stockpiling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Nigelb said:

    A cautionary tale...

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
    On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir’s conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus,” practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.

    “I’m planning on being there this Tuesday March 10, and hoping many of you will be, too,” he wrote.

    Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

    “It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

    After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

    Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

    The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

    “That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.

    In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill...

    It is episodes like this that make me doubt that a lot of infections are asymptomatic.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,294

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    I think this is why he wants Rachel Reeves in as SC. It'll antagonise Bastani, Swindon, and the other cretins.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    fpt
    kamski said:

    fox327 said:

    Estimates of the real mortality rate of the virus range widely from ~0.1% (implied by the Chief Medical Officer for Scotland yesterday) to 5+% (from articles in The Lancet). Professor Neil Ferguson, an advisor to the government, has also said that up to 5-10% of London may become infected in the next few weeks, implying a lower mortality rate.

    However, news on the economic front is also grim and getting worse. There is a risk that the government could leave it too late to restart the economy. I cannot visualise where the UK economy will be in a year or two, especially if no vaccine is found. Fortunately, there is a reasonable chance that a vaccine can be developed.

    The situation in countries which are implementing a less effective lockdown than the UK will be very informative. I would include in these Sweden, Iran and India. Right now the government is gathering information. Then later, before the end of this year, the government will have to make some very difficult decisions.

    Some key questions have not been answered. What is the mortality rate of the virus? What will be the effectiveness of a safe vaccine that can be developed? What is the lessor of two evils: a coronavirus epidemic and economic devastation caused by a lockdown?

    Published yesterday:
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

    Estimates an infection mortality rate of 0.66%
    The best (to date) controlled experiment - The Diamond Princess, with free association, then lockdown - gives the mortality rate at 0.5% which seems imo (what do I know) to be the most likely eventual outcome.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    I am guessing there is no standard way to measure Covid-19 deaths and that each country does it differently. If so, aren't comparisons entirely meaningless?

    Well Mrs Deputy Egg-head did reprimand one of the journalists the other day for doing this...but then chief egg-head fired up the old powerpoint yesterday where he made direct comparison, including even the Chinese numbers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    I am still not convinced that all of Starmer's votes won't have been lost in the post and as a result Long Bailey will be declared the winner.

    I think that is unlikely - but I would not rule it out. My guess is that the "lost" ballots will be much more significant for the NEC elections that are happening at the same time.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Sandpit said:

    Turns out GM was already working on making ventilators when Trump attacked them:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html

    The way this is being politicised at every stage in the US really isn't good, but in an election year no-one seems willing to suspend politics as usual.

    It's been reported today that people are screaming about the FDA's temporary approval of malaria drugs for testing against coronavirus - for no other reason that Trump mentioned it at a press conference, and they don't want to see him get the credit.
    There's no problem with trials (indeed, they are essential).
    What has upset people is that the idea has got around that it works, and the drug (which is essential for, among others, some lupus patients) is being panic purchased.
    To be fair, it's even worse in France, where they've already approved its use as a treatment, before any conclusive demonstration that it works.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    Perhaps the government could set up a scheme for them too.
    The government has a fully funded scheme for such people, offering them free accommodation, food, the chance to earn a living and study for a degree, followed by a short spell of close and loving monitoring to make sure they can usefully reintegrate once the emergency is over.

    It's called 'a prison sentence.'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    No one will be interested in anything Keir has to say until the autumn at the earliest.

    He'll be better off just securing position at Labour HQ behind the scenes and in building up a internal team and shadow cab before doing anything public oriented, especially in terms of policy etc.
    The most sensible thing he can do is offer to assist and support the government in any way he can through the crisis (and the government would be silly to resist, should invite him to the key COBR meetings etc.), which buys him a few months to sort out as best he can the internal party problems caused by the Corbynites.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A cautionary tale...

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
    On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir’s conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus,” practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.

    “I’m planning on being there this Tuesday March 10, and hoping many of you will be, too,” he wrote.

    Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

    “It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

    After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

    Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

    The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

    “That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.

    In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill...

    It is episodes like this that make me doubt that a lot of infections are asymptomatic.
    Looking at the picture accompanying the story, the choir seems to have been quite elderly, so I'm not sure you can draw a firm conclusion.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?

    This is the same way that excess deaths are calculated with seasonal flu.

    In Italy last year only 500 died of the flu having tested positive, the rest of the 8000 deaths were presumed. It seems reasonable to apply the same approach, and I expect all countries will do so in time.

    As only inpatients are being tested at present, UK community deaths are certainly being ignored, but could be important markers as we shift back to a containment approach after the peak.
    I think that is fair enough as long as we make this clear, i.e number died confirmed in hospital vs the wider community presumed, as we know how much the media love to compare apples with oranges.
    I have no doubt that scientific illiteracy amongst journalists will be pandemic!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
    It is a graphic description of suffering. Thank you for your kind wishes

    Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer

    Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
    Acutely aware life is precious and fragile, especially having lost mum to to Leukaemia at Xmas. Goodness knows what we would be doing with her now. The ITU experience is live in my imagination. Meanwhile I am dreading the call from Dads care home and pondering breaking law to extract him and care for him if necessary. Also figuring out how to shield wife on MS immunosuppressive therapy whilst juggling two very bored teenage boys. All the while worrying what happens to them if I were to draw the short straw.

    That all sounds pretty stressful. Stay strong bud. We're all rooting for you.
    @jonathan, Hope things go well for you Jonathan, your are having a tough time, keep your chin up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    Perhaps the government could set up a scheme for them too.
    Italian organized crime looking to expand through this crisis...

    Mafia primed to feast on Italy's virus devastation

    https://www.france24.com/en/20200329-mafia-primed-to-feast-on-italy-s-virus-devastation
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    My apologies. An earlier version of this post was published by mistake.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I am guessing there is no standard way to measure Covid-19 deaths and that each country does it differently. If so, aren't comparisons entirely meaningless?

    Crude but effective: ignore entirely what anybody says anybody died of, just compare average vs actual death count for the time of year (accepting that this captures deaths indirectly due to CV owing to lack of medical treatment of other conditions and so on).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    New Labour. New Britain.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Well those strawberries won't pick themselves...

    To be honest, if people want to get out there and do jobs that need doing, good on them. I presume though that the 80% from job #1 and the second job will push most into top rate tax, which is less appealing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?

    This is the same way that excess deaths are calculated with seasonal flu.

    In Italy last year only 500 died of the flu having tested positive, the rest of the 8000 deaths were presumed. It seems reasonable to apply the same approach, and I expect all countries will do so in time.

    As only inpatients are being tested at present, UK community deaths are certainly being ignored, but could be important markers as we shift back to a containment approach after the peak.
    I think that is fair enough as long as we make this clear, i.e number died confirmed in hospital vs the wider community presumed, as we know how much the media love to compare apples with oranges.
    I have no doubt that scientific illiteracy amongst journalists will be pandemic!
    Already endemic surely?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He then undertook postgraduate studies at St Edmund Hall, Oxford, graduating from the University of Oxford as a Bachelor of Civil Law (BCL) in 1986.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited March 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Turns out GM was already working on making ventilators when Trump attacked them:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html

    The way this is being politicised at every stage in the US really isn't good, but in an election year no-one seems willing to suspend politics as usual.

    It's been reported today that people are screaming about the FDA's temporary approval of malaria drugs for testing against coronavirus - for no other reason that Trump mentioned it at a press conference, and they don't want to see him get the credit.
    There's no problem with trials (indeed, they are essential).
    What has upset people is that the idea has got around that it works, and the drug (which is essential for, among others, some lupus patients) is being panic purchased.
    To be fair, it's even worse in France, where they've already approved its use as a treatment, before any conclusive demonstration that it works.
    Yes, it is not trials that have been permitted by the FDA, but off licence usage.

    There is now a reasonably good quality RCT from China out now:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1244870926686130176?s=09
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?

    This is the same way that excess deaths are calculated with seasonal flu.

    In Italy last year only 500 died of the flu having tested positive, the rest of the 8000 deaths were presumed. It seems reasonable to apply the same approach, and I expect all countries will do so in time.

    As only inpatients are being tested at present, UK community deaths are certainly being ignored, but could be important markers as we shift back to a containment approach after the peak.
    I think that is fair enough as long as we make this clear, i.e number died confirmed in hospital vs the wider community presumed, as we know how much the media love to compare apples with oranges.
    I have no doubt that scientific illiteracy amongst journalists will be pandemic!
    Journalists have appeared even more scientifically illiterate over the last few weeks than they do usually. Except this time is's really important that they get things right.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
    It is a graphic description of suffering. Thank you for your kind wishes

    Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer

    Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
    Acutely aware life is precious and fragile, especially having lost mum to to Leukaemia at Xmas. Goodness knows what we would be doing with her now. The ITU experience is live in my imagination. Meanwhile I am dreading the call from Dads care home and pondering breaking law to extract him and care for him if necessary. Also figuring out how to shield wife on MS immunosuppressive therapy whilst juggling two very bored teenage boys. All the while worrying what happens to them if I were to draw the short straw.

    Both my boys are in their early twenties now, but even without the spectre of Coronavirus I made adequate provision in terms of trusted guardianship and financial provision just in case I fell under a bus when they were younger.

    Probability dictated that it was unlikely I fell under a bus, and probability is very much on your side during the Coronavirus scare.

    Nonetheless, dark times, dark thoughts!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    It seems like many British businesses have cut out all of the slack exept for day-to-day variability. Good optimisation for normal times giving hight profits but vulnerable to sudden changes. The same can be said for the NHS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    A long an interesting thread on airborne transmission of this thing.
    (From which the WHO does not emerge covered in glory... again.):

    https://twitter.com/rkhamsi/status/1244659064350670848
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    His first degree was at Leeds. However, he did a postgrad BCL at St Edmund Hall in Oxford.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    Plus if they do that he need not even change all that much as the public perception will be he has.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Sky news hammering Boris and government over NHS PPE again as their top website story. BBC meanwhile aren’t even covering this story today.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-under-pressure-over-lack-of-protective-gear-for-nhs-staff-11966025

    Lack of PPE for front line NHS is a non story, in terms of political damage. Seeing this pressure group style pressing across the ‘press” and media this morning is nothing, absolutely no problem whatsoever for this government. Because quite simply the government have been very active trying to get PPE to the front line, that concern and activity gets them off the hook.

    However, if virus starts getting into care homes where government has abandoned nurses and care ers(and so many Daily Mail readers loved ones) to absolutely no PPE, then this government will be lacerated by the media on an unprecedented scale.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    A big question for me is whether Labour will stick with this leadership system.
    I actually think it's been a bit of a failure and has winnowed the short list too far.

    The likes of Thornberry and Philips should have had the chance to make their case to the membership I think.

    I also have very little idea what the Deputy Leader does and so have very little opinion on who that should be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He went to Leeds I believe, the only sibling to attend university from modest beginnings. If he is a 'posh bloke' it is through his own endeavours. I can live with that!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Have you considered that perhaps you might be a super spreader?

    If I were "active" that would certainly be crossing my mind! But as it is, well, call me Howard Hughes, except that I am cutting my toenails. In fact I'm cutting them every day. It's a highlight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He went to Leeds. The greatest.

    But did do some kind of post graduate think at Oxford iirc.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"
    Pathetic. Starmer's first uni was Leeds and he only did a short post grad year in Oxford. To try to paint him as posh so what? He didn't decide which school he want to
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will release data for England and Wales which should include any death linked by doctors to coronavirus, regardless of where the person died.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/

    If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?

    We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".

    Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?

    This is the same way that excess deaths are calculated with seasonal flu.

    In Italy last year only 500 died of the flu having tested positive, the rest of the 8000 deaths were presumed. It seems reasonable to apply the same approach, and I expect all countries will do so in time.

    As only inpatients are being tested at present, UK community deaths are certainly being ignored, but could be important markers as we shift back to a containment approach after the peak.
    I think that is fair enough as long as we make this clear, i.e number died confirmed in hospital vs the wider community presumed, as we know how much the media love to compare apples with oranges.
    I have no doubt that scientific illiteracy amongst journalists will be pandemic!
    Journalists have appeared even more scientifically illiterate over the last few weeks than they do usually. Except this time is's really important that they get things right.
    They don't even seem to understand that there are more than a handful of academics at the same institution and that they don't all work together in a small cozy club and often disagree....

    But Imperial said....Imperial said something different...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So it gave us election winners...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    It's the burglars I feel for...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    rkrkrk said:

    A big question for me is whether Labour will stick with this leadership system.
    I actually think it's been a bit of a failure and has winnowed the short list too far.

    The likes of Thornberry and Philips should have had the chance to make their case to the membership I think.

    That's the kind of woolly thinking that gave you the Jezaster in the first place. He was put on by a load of Blairites, including Field and Beckett, lending him their votes to 'broaden the debate.'

    There is a reason why Miliband's rules anticipated the PLP winnowing out the rubbish. It's just been shown with painful clarity how right he was, and how wrong the decision to bypass it.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
    It is a graphic description of suffering. Thank you for your kind wishes

    Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer

    Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
    Acutely aware life is precious and fragile, especially having lost mum to to Leukaemia at Xmas. Goodness knows what we would be doing with her now. The ITU experience is live in my imagination. Meanwhile I am dreading the call from Dads care home and pondering breaking law to extract him and care for him if necessary. Also figuring out how to shield wife on MS immunosuppressive therapy whilst juggling two very bored teenage boys. All the while worrying what happens to them if I were to draw the short straw.

    You are having a difficult time. Take care
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    It seems like many British businesses have cut out all of the slack exept for day-to-day variability. Good optimisation for normal times giving hight profits but vulnerable to sudden changes. The same can be said for the NHS.
    It has become standard business practice worldwide (with some exceptions).
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Turns out GM was already working on making ventilators when Trump attacked them:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html

    The way this is being politicised at every stage in the US really isn't good, but in an election year no-one seems willing to suspend politics as usual.

    It's been reported today that people are screaming about the FDA's temporary approval of malaria drugs for testing against coronavirus - for no other reason that Trump mentioned it at a press conference, and they don't want to see him get the credit.
    There's no problem with trials (indeed, they are essential).
    What has upset people is that the idea has got around that it works, and the drug (which is essential for, among others, some lupus patients) is being panic purchased.
    To be fair, it's even worse in France, where they've already approved its use as a treatment, before any conclusive demonstration that it works.
    Yes, it is not trials that have been permitted by the FDA, but off licence usage.

    There is now a reasonably good quality RCT from China out now:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1244870926686130176?s=09
    Promising - but a very small trial, and it's going to be extremely hard to recruit subjects for a large scale trial if everyone is getting it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So it gave us election winners...
    The Oxford nearly always win, it's how the UK works
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    It's the burglars I feel for...
    I am surprised we haven't heard stories of shop break ins having gone up. Surely they must be easy pickings at the moment, as the plod are too busy telling off shopkeepers over their Easter Egg sales.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    rkrkrk said:

    A big question for me is whether Labour will stick with this leadership system.
    I actually think it's been a bit of a failure and has winnowed the short list too far.

    The likes of Thornberry and Philips should have had the chance to make their case to the membership I think.

    I also have very little idea what the Deputy Leader does and so have very little opinion on who that should be.

    It is a ridiculously prolonged system. The world has ended between starting gun and finish line!

    There needs to be a more agile system in the future.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"
    Pathetic. Starmer's first uni was Leeds and he only did a short post grad year in Oxford. To try to paint him as posh so what? He didn't decide which school he want to
    Nor did most people who went to private school but it doesn't stop lefties calling them posh. No point dishing it our if you cant take it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    It's the burglars I feel for...
    I am surprised we haven't heard stories of shop break ins having gone up. Surely they must be easy pickings at the moment, as the plod are too busy telling off shopkeepers over their Easter Egg sales.
    No point. How do you fence what you have nicked? You'll just be stockpiling.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    It seems like many British businesses have cut out all of the slack exept for day-to-day variability. Good optimisation for normal times giving hight profits but vulnerable to sudden changes. The same can be said for the NHS.
    Overall sales are reported up 20%. I don't think any supermarket can be ready for that on a consistent basis.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He went to Leeds I believe, the only sibling to attend university from modest beginnings. If he is a 'posh bloke' it is through his own endeavours. I can live with that!

    I think most people can. They want a country in which it is your talent and hard work that count, not who you know or where you went to school.

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