Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
What evidence do you have that Phillip Lee is lying? Because if you have none, I suggest you acknowledge the fact that you are letting your own bias scream rather than listen to what on the face of it is important.
My screen name is BluestBlue, ffs - I believe in truth in advertising! I just wish the legion of pettifogging 'jourmalists' would be as open with their own personal proclivities.
Suggest we wait until cases do actually fall. I'm equally certain most people don't want to be gasping for breath with no ventilator or any effective medical care because the hospital system is overwhelmed. We're in lockdown to avoid grisly death. People will give this precisely one second's thought before deciding they will take lockdown.
That is your point of view. One thing that is very, very hard is to grasp the mindset of people who have opposing views to ones own. They value things differently....
There will be be some people howling "LET ME OUT", without thought to the consequences.
Some people have a very low tolerance for social isolation. Some people are cooped up with people they hate/fear - the point about abusive/dysfunctional families. Some people are living in accommodation that is tolerable on the go-home-sleep-shower-leave on a daily basis. etc.
People will be screaming for the lockdown to end when it becomes clear that the three month "furlough" will not be anywhere near enough to stop the inevitable round of redundancies most companies are now considering.
Most people, even those on high incomes, tend to have little in the way of savings and plenty in terms of monthly outgoings - mortgages, car loans, etc. Few people I know believe the furlough will save their jobs or that we will simply pick up "as normal" in three months time.
S/E people will be in a fix. Sunak`s package is based on net profit rather than turnover.
At the moment we are being told the government will "do whatever it takes" - that has mollified most for now, but the grim realisation that it will not be nearly enough will kick in over the next few weeks.
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
What evidence do you have that Phillip Lee is lying? Because if you have none, I suggest you acknowledge the fact that you are letting your own bias scream rather than listen to what on the face of it is important.
My screen name is BluestBlue, ffs - I believe in truth in advertising! I just wish the legion of pettifogging 'jourmalists' would be as open with their own personal proclivities.
There are detailed facts to respond to. Personal proclivities don't come into it. They're either correct or incorrect. Your position seems to be that you believe them to be incorrect as an article of faith.
That’s just ridiculous, a prime example of manufacturing outrage from yoking together a couple of things that someone doesn’t like. For me, personally, I think the lockdown was a week too late and I’m prepared to carry on for much, much longer. As I had to self isolate before I’ve already coped with 19 days and I’ve only felt the need to step out of the house once. I appreciate that this sort of self sacrifice is anathema to many but, and it’s not a term that I would normally use, the snowflakes who can’t cope with this need to get a grip. Yes, there are a minority who do have a real issue with it but the vast majority of people moaning, are those who didn’t want to do it in the first place and are trying to claim that it won’t work now that it exists.
This idea that people can’t behave the way that is needed is missing one key thing, in times of crisis people behaviour need to change. Enough of the commentariat moaning about how terrible it is that they have had to change their behaviour.
The problem with your view is that the risk of complete economic collapse will grow very quickly and very fast. The government has neither unlimited reserves or credit to feed and care for the people indefinitely. I say this with no pleasure but there it is.
We’ve been told three to six months as a plausible length of time. That the government have announced plans for both the employed and self employed, suggests that they have the figures that show they can cope with that sort of outlay (you could call it investment, given that the aim is to protect businesses). These promises are being looked on enviously in other countries and it is, to me, the real strength of the government’s current approach, suggesting, ‘look, we’ve got your back’.
Goodness - if they can do that I am seriously impressed. Not sure Spain could do it - the only good news I can see hear is that we're a bit nearer the peak. However, for those with businesses here I think the summer is probably gone.
What sort of plans does Spain have to support businesses? We just hear about the health issues from most other countries but it would be interesting to compare.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
It is also the lack of credit they give. The 80% wage scheme, the expanding of healthcare capacity, getting the AI / tech companies to build a load management system, the ventilator challenge idea, the food boxes, the volunteer scheme. As soon as they are announced, the response well that isn't enough or generally poo-poo'ing it and fault finding.
Yes that requires more than just the government, but the government deserves credit for all those things.
It reminds me of rescuing all the ex-pats from Libya. 2 weeks of wall to wall criticism, no credit when it was discovered Hague and the SAS did an amazing job.
Whilst I buy the criticism of the media Dr Lee asks some interesting questions.
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
I just do not see how this company survives as a private business.
Nope. The whole aviation industry has been turned upside-down by this, and when things start to recover there's going to be thousands of distress sales and repossessions of nearly-new aircraft.
I suspect Boeing will have to mothball most civilian production for a couple of years, and hope that enough military contracts can keep enough jobs alive.
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
It was the US who wanted the UK to end the relationship with Huawei in the first place, Indian PM Modi is also a close ally of Boris as is Netanyahu in Israel
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
Of course not.
They come over here, they give us their viruses...
"I find the power politics of Hungary's Prime Minister Orbàn unbearable. But those who constantly pretend that one can just sanction Hungary in this way are wrong: not legally simple on the basis of the EU treaties. In France, for example, emergency laws have also been in force since Terror 2015"
Perhaps a German speaker could spruce this up for me, but the thrust seems clear enough.
I'd quibble with "einfach so" being apparently translated as "just... in this way", should be more like "easily" (just like that) . But I'm not a native speaker.
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
Do either of you think that any of your ramblings are useful? Phillip Lee has made a series of detailed assertions. His backstory is irrelevant. Either they are true or they are untrue. This should be a matter of easy proof.
Since he was in a position of authority at the time and his assertions are detailed and credible, they should be given very serious consideration.
Put another way, if he is right, isn't it concerning?
Agree, this is a story that journalists should be investigating although I suspect we won't get answers until after the crisis has passed. Is there a link between tightened NHS resources and not investing in spare capacity on ventilators?
Suggest we wait until cases do actually fall. I'm equally certain most people don't want to be gasping for breath with no ventilator or any effective medical care because the hospital system is overwhelmed. We're in lockdown to avoid grisly death. People will give this precisely one second's thought before deciding they will take lockdown.
That is your point of view. One thing that is very, very hard is to grasp the mindset of people who have opposing views to ones own. They value things differently....
There will be be some people howling "LET ME OUT", without thought to the consequences.
Some people have a very low tolerance for social isolation. Some people are cooped up with people they hate/fear - the point about abusive/dysfunctional families. Some people are living in accommodation that is tolerable on the go-home-sleep-shower-leave on a daily basis. etc.
People will be screaming for the lockdown to end when it becomes clear that the three month "furlough" will not be anywhere near enough to stop the inevitable round of redundancies most companies are now considering.
Most people, even those on high incomes, tend to have little in the way of savings and plenty in terms of monthly outgoings - mortgages, car loans, etc. Few people I know believe the furlough will save their jobs or that we will simply pick up "as normal" in three months time.
S/E people will be in a fix. Sunak`s package is based on net profit rather than turnover.
At the moment we are being told the government will "do whatever it takes" - that has mollified most for now, but the grim realisation that it will not be nearly enough will kick in over the next few weeks.
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
Most middle management people in my experience are actually working at home at the moment with their jobs largely unaffected and their wages still coming in as usual
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
Talks of cold wars are nonsense. But more self-reliance of crucial industries within a group of trusted actors, I can definitely see. In the same way as the West has started to divest itself of Saudi oil and Russian gas.
I doubt many Western countries want to get caught out again finding they can't get PPE, because the Chinese took their own firms stock (because it is produced in a factory in China) or can't get base chemicals for loads of crucial tests.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
Add a 0 or two to that. 'The market will provide' is still the majority view in govt.
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
The Johnson government have by and large done a decent job. They have done no more or no less than was expected of them, so a good job.
There are people in the media and on here claiming Boris to be the new Churchill, as on the whole he has got things reasonably right. Because he has got things reasonably right (so far) there are calls for any dissent to be quashed. This is very dangerous. If people with some subject knowledge like Lee (and Hunt) are shouted down because they are deemed quisling enemies of Johnson that is not good.
Suggest we wait until cases do actually fall. I'm equally certain most people don't want to be gasping for breath with no ventilator or any effective medical care because the hospital system is overwhelmed. We're in lockdown to avoid grisly death. People will give this precisely one second's thought before deciding they will take lockdown.
That is your point of view. One thing that is very, very hard is to grasp the mindset of people who have opposing views to ones own. They value things differently....
There will be be some people howling "LET ME OUT", without thought to the consequences.
Some people have a very low tolerance for social isolation. Some people are cooped up with people they hate/fear - the point about abusive/dysfunctional families. Some people are living in accommodation that is tolerable on the go-home-sleep-shower-leave on a daily basis. etc.
People will be screaming for the lockdown to end when it becomes clear that the three month "furlough" will not be anywhere near enough to stop the inevitable round of redundancies most companies are now considering.
Most people, even those on high incomes, tend to have little in the way of savings and plenty in terms of monthly outgoings - mortgages, car loans, etc. Few people I know believe the furlough will save their jobs or that we will simply pick up "as normal" in three months time.
S/E people will be in a fix. Sunak`s package is based on net profit rather than turnover.
At the moment we are being told the government will "do whatever it takes" - that has mollified most for now, but the grim realisation that it will not be nearly enough will kick in over the next few weeks.
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
Most middle management people in my experience are actually working at home at the moment with their jobs largely unaffected and their wages still coming in as usual
Yes, they are for the moment. The redundancies will come in a couple of months time when it's clear that aggregate demand across the economy is going to be depressed for the rest of the year.
My point is that we are still in the shock/denial phase right now, but companies will be looking at their bottom lines and looking at who to cut. A lot of people with previously secure middle class jobs are going to find they are nothing of the sort soon enough.
The three month "furlough" will not be nearly enough to save jobs and the government cannot keep paying everybody who loses their job their old salary. A lot of people who were previously earning a nice chunk of change are going to find out what it's like to try to live on £80 a week, and it won't be pretty.
At the moment I am speculating about where I think we will be in three months time, not where we are now. Come back to this post then, I think it will (unfortunately) age well.
On topic, I went over the top ages ago suggesting the Labour Party would rig the leadership election so its too late for me to change my mind. I hope to be made a fool of by the sweeping Starmer victory. However, all the signs are there that something is afoot, and the situation we find ourselves in provides them with the perfect cover to pull a coup off.
Despite the polls I remain convinced that a significant percentage of the membership remain wedded to Corbyn and Corbynism. Not the membership who turn out to meetings (eg the 26 out of 700 in Stockton South who went to their selection meeting), its the "silent majority" I refer to. For some of these not to vote RLB is like asking Nazi Party members in June 1945 to suddenly support the communists.
And why would anyone be surprised at a "shock" RLB victory. After all Jeremy won, Jeremy won. They've nationalised the railways and private hospitals. They're paying people's salaries. There is a wave of public revulsion towards evil capitalists like Ashley and Branson and Martin. People are helping each other. And you suggest Labour members will throw all this away and vote for a man who is basically a Tory himself? No! They will follow True Socialism and vote for RLB. A narrow win, but a win. So they will say.
Deputy? Would be genuinely hilarious if it was ding-dong Burgon, but that would be so outlandish as to highlight the theft of the leadership position. Better to install a pliable half on board traitor like Rayner.
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
The Johnson government have by and large done a decent job. They have done no more or no less than was expected of them, so a good job.
There are people in the media and on here claiming Boris to be the new Churchill, as on the whole he has got things reasonably right. Because he has got things reasonably right (so far) there are calls for any dissent to be quashed. This is very dangerous. If people with some subject knowledge like Lee (and Hunt) are shouted down because they are deemed quisling enemies of Johnson that is not good.
Hunt's criticisms have been on the whole very constructive and useful. His suggestion of running skeleton schooling for essential workers, stopping visits to care homes (even before a lockdown) and of course the message to keep trying to expand testing.
And his questioning of the egg-heads, I think was also a useful exercise. None of the usual grand standing nonsense from those events.
I just do not see how this company survives as a private business.
Boeing has an immensely profitable business model in an industry with massive barriers to entry. They do seem to be doing their very best to kill what should be an indestructible golden goose.
I just do not see how this company survives as a private business.
Boeing has an immensely profitable business model in an industry with massive barriers to entry. They do seem to be doing their very best to kill what should be an indestructible golden goose.
Their spares business looks the only part that's viable at the moment.
Suggest we wait until cases do actually fall. I'm equally certain most people don't want to be gasping for breath with no ventilator or any effective medical care because the hospital system is overwhelmed. We're in lockdown to avoid grisly death. People will give this precisely one second's thought before deciding they will take lockdown.
That is your point of view. One thing that is very, very hard is to grasp the mindset of people who have opposing views to ones own. They value things differently....
There will be be some people howling "LET ME OUT", without thought to the consequences.
Some people have a very low tolerance for social isolation. Some people are cooped up with people they hate/fear - the point about abusive/dysfunctional families. Some people are living in accommodation that is tolerable on the go-home-sleep-shower-leave on a daily basis. etc.
People will be screaming for the lockdown to end when it becomes clear that the three month "furlough" will not be anywhere near enough to stop the inevitable round of redundancies most companies are now considering.
Most people, even those on high incomes, tend to have little in the way of savings and plenty in terms of monthly outgoings - mortgages, car loans, etc. Few people I know believe the furlough will save their jobs or that we will simply pick up "as normal" in three months time.
S/E people will be in a fix. Sunak`s package is based on net profit rather than turnover.
At the moment we are being told the government will "do whatever it takes" - that has mollified most for now, but the grim realisation that it will not be nearly enough will kick in over the next few weeks.
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
Most middle management people in my experience are actually working at home at the moment with their jobs largely unaffected and their wages still coming in as usual
Yes, they are for the moment. The redundancies will come in a couple of months time when it's clear that aggregate demand across the economy is going to be depressed for the rest of the year.
My point is that we are still in the shock/denial phase right now, but companies will be looking at their bottom lines and looking at who to cut. A lot of people with previously secure middle class jobs are going to find they are nothing of the sort soon enough.
The three month "furlough" will not be nearly enough to save jobs and the government cannot keep paying everybody who loses their job their old salary. A lot of people who were previously earning a nice chunk of change are going to find out what it's like to try to live on £80 a week, and it won't be pretty.
At the moment I am speculating about where I think we will be in three months time, not where we are now. Come back to this post then, I think it will (unfortunately) age well.
Most city jobs, law firms, IT firms, civil service jobs, accountancy jobs, middle management jobs are continuing as usual (beyond airlines and a few clothing stores managers) and are working online and barely affected by this crisis with no need for furlough.
It is mainly working class hairdressers, restaurant, bar, cafe, cinema, clothing store and gym workers who cannot work online who need furlough and whose wages and jobs are most under threat (though if they work for a supermarket they are of course seeing an increase in demand and more jobs being created, as they are if they work for the NHS, deliveroo or Amazon)
Because good old 'Two Es' has messed up everything he's ever touched in his life, and there's no reason to believe the coronavirus would be any different?
You have strayed into churlishness. Led the Labour Party for 5 years. Changed it in his own image. Came quite close to becoming PM in 2017. And as you say, not the brightest. Neither from a particularly privileged background. The very definition of an over-achiever.
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
Talks of cold wars are nonsense. But more self-reliance of crucial industries within a group of trusted actors, I can definitely see. In the same way as the West has started to divest itself of Saudi oil and Russian gas.
I doubt many Western countries want to get caught out again finding they can't get PPE, because the Chinese took their own firms stock (because it is produced in a factory in China) or can't get base chemicals for loads of crucial tests.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
Bit scary these attacks on any questioning of what the UK government has or hasn't done. Of course there are commentators who are going to criticise whatever the government or the tories do. But try to imagine if Corbyn was prime minister and was saying and doing exactly the same things wrt Covid-19 as Johnson (and I don't think he'd be doing things very differently). Should any questioning of government response be met with - how dare you question Jeremy?
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
I suspect no one wants to curtail personal freedoms less than Johnson. It will be a big test of his character if he can continue to hold his nerve against his own instincts as the dissenting voices get louder.
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
I will never complain about the coffee in the reading room again. Well, not for at least a month.
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
I will never complain about the coffee in the reading room again. Well, not for at least a month.
How anyone could want to work from home all the time is beyond me.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
Well that would apply to governments of all stripes. You can`t plan for every remote possibility.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
Not just the government, but the public decide to just float the rules more and more. Lovely weather, only 50 deaths today, we are over it now, I'm off out.
It is why I think the government didn't want to go too early either, not just the fatigue, but they would have to have the plod rule with an iron fist as people wouldn't be scared enough to stay in.
The number of people I have had to explain what will happen to, when it was only 50 deaths or whatever...all saying, well that isn't many.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
" Personal proclivities don't come into it. They're either correct or incorrect."
from your earlier post.
Sounds a bit either\or to me, were you farting or chewing gum at the time ?
"I find the power politics of Hungary's Prime Minister Orbàn unbearable. But those who constantly pretend that one can just sanction Hungary in this way are wrong: not legally simple on the basis of the EU treaties. In France, for example, emergency laws have also been in force since Terror 2015"
Perhaps a German speaker could spruce this up for me, but the thrust seems clear enough.
I'd quibble with "einfach so" being apparently translated as "just... in this way", should be more like "easily" (just like that) . But I'm not a native speaker.
Your remark is correct. Otherwise the translation does capture the content of the original tweet.
I already reminded yesterday that the EU treaties do not comprise any legal provision for 'expelling' a member state, that marginalising or even expelling Hungary would be a political process, long drawn out over several stages if it ever came to that.
I would also like to remind Alastair that the tweet did not come from Martin Selmayr but from someone of a similar name.
Edit: just realised that Alastair correctly stated that Selmyer merely retweeted it
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
Well that would apply to governments of all stripes. You can`t plan for every remote possibility.
This was not a remote possibility. There have been repeated epidemics. Sooner or later one was going to take full flight. Indeed, this is probably at the milder end of what could be expected.
This was so much not a remote possibility that the idea had been wargamed (twice, it seems, in the last decade). So did other countries. It was so much not a remote possibility that the WHO felt it necessary to judge countries on their pandemic preparedness.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
There are a number of long term risks which have to be assessed on their probabilities and our ability to adapt if they should arise. The dice have rolled this one. Maybe, if we had known for sure that they were going to, we might have got more ventilators but if the dice had rolled a 5 rather than a 6 that might have been completely pointless.
The NHS has had real term increases in funding every year since the GFC but no one sensible would pretend that this allows it to meet the almost infinite demands placed on it. Those in charge have to prioritise. To say with the benefit of hindsight that they guessed wrong is frankly pointless and proves nothing.
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
Toby Young is an opinion former?
If that is true we are very much behind the 8 ball.
"I find the power politics of Hungary's Prime Minister Orbàn unbearable. But those who constantly pretend that one can just sanction Hungary in this way are wrong: not legally simple on the basis of the EU treaties. In France, for example, emergency laws have also been in force since Terror 2015"
Perhaps a German speaker could spruce this up for me, but the thrust seems clear enough.
I'd quibble with "einfach so" being apparently translated as "just... in this way", should be more like "easily" (just like that) . But I'm not a native speaker.
Your remark is correct. Otherwise the translation does capture the content of the original tweet.
I already reminded yesterday that the EU treaties do not comprise any legal provision for 'expelling' a member state, that marginalising or even expelling Hungary would be a political process, long drawn out over several stages if it ever came to that.
I would also like to remind Alistair that the tweet did not come from Martin Selmayr but from someone of a similar name.
Suggest we wait until cases do actually fall. I'm equally certain most people don't want to be gasping for breath with no ventilator or any effective medical care because the hospital system is overwhelmed. We're in lockdown to avoid grisly death. People will give this precisely one second's thought before deciding they will take lockdown.
That is your point of view. One thing that is very, very hard is to grasp the mindset of people who have opposing views to ones own. They value things differently....
There will be be some people howling "LET ME OUT", without thought to the consequences.
Some people have a very low tolerance for social isolation. Some people are cooped up with people they hate/fear - the point about abusive/dysfunctional families. Some people are living in accommodation that is tolerable on the go-home-sleep-shower-leave on a daily basis. etc.
People will be screaming for the lockdown to end when it becomes clear that the three month "furlough" will not be anywhere near enough to stop the inevitable round of redundancies most companies are now considering.
Most people, even those on high incomes, tend to have little in the way of savings and plenty in terms of monthly outgoings - mortgages, car loans, etc. Few people I know believe the furlough will save their jobs or that we will simply pick up "as normal" in three months time.
S/E people will be in a fix. Sunak`s package is based on net profit rather than turnover.
At the moment we are being told the government will "do whatever it takes" - that has mollified most for now, but the grim realisation that it will not be nearly enough will kick in over the next few weeks.
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
Most middle management people in my experience are actually working at home at the moment with their jobs largely unaffected and their wages still coming in as usual
Yes, they are for the moment. The redundancies will come in a couple of months time when it's clear that aggregate demand across the economy is going to be depressed for the rest of the year.
My point is that we are still in the shock/denial phase right now, but companies will be looking at their bottom lines and looking at who to cut. A lot of people with previously secure middle class jobs are going to find they are nothing of the sort soon enough.
The three month "furlough" will not be nearly enough to save jobs and the government cannot keep paying everybody who loses their job their old salary. A lot of people who were previously earning a nice chunk of change are going to find out what it's like to try to live on £80 a week, and it won't be pretty.
At the moment I am speculating about where I think we will be in three months time, not where we are now. Come back to this post then, I think it will (unfortunately) age well.
Most city jobs, law firms, IT firms, civil service jobs, accountancy jobs, middle management jobs are continuing as usual (beyond airlines and a few clothing stores managers) and are working online and barely affected by this crisis with no need for furlough.
It is mainly working class hairdressers, restaurant, bar, cafe, cinema, clothing store and gym workers who cannot work online who need furlough and whose wages and jobs are most under threat (though if they work for a supermarket they are of course seeing an increase in demand and more jobs being created, as they are if they work for the NHS, deliveroo or Amazon)
Again, I'm talking about what happens in three months time when the furlough ends. I think most hairdressers will get back to work, restaurant workers will find new jobs.
It's the people who have been in previously safe middle class jobs who have the most to worry about in the long term. Take management consultants. Your Accentures, your McKinseys. In good times, they make a fortune charging big businesses extortionate amounts. In bad times, they are seen as fat and are the first to be cut.
It is my guess that there will be a lot more management consultants out of work than hairdressers in six months time.
But as I say, it is speculation. I'm not talking about who is in work now. Let's see where we are in three months, six months, a year's time.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
And they didnt do the either or the or. Targets slipped and nobody thought perhaps we ought to buy some ventilators whilst the NHS continues on. David L accusing critics of being childish is pathetic as his own defence of the situation we find ourselves in is precisely that
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
Well that would apply to governments of all stripes. You can`t plan for every remote possibility.
This was not a remote possibility. There have been repeated epidemics. Sooner or later one was going to take full flight. Indeed, this is probably at the milder end of what could be expected.
This was so much not a remote possibility that the idea had been wargamed (twice, it seems, in the last decade). So did other countries. It was so much not a remote possibility that the WHO felt it necessary to judge countries on their pandemic preparedness.
The reality is there has been a collective failing of the West. Bill Gates has warned about this for years, and suggested lots of sensible steps. No Western government has really taken them onboard.
We got away with SARs, MERs, Ebola etc never really breaking out in the West and the few cases that did get here, they were on a scale that the systems could cope.
South Korea experienced SARs and MERs and obviously much closer to China, so don't take any of this lightly.
It is also why we haven't really got vaccines as far as long as they should, because all the work on SARs / MERs faded into the background because it fizzled out without it causing mass deaths in the west.
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
I will never complain about the coffee in the reading room again. Well, not for at least a month.
How anyone could want to work from home all the time is beyond me.
Agreed. Its terrible. And unproductive. I have a new respect for the authors on this site who have the self discipline to apply themselves consistently to their craft in that way.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
Not just the government, but the public decide to just float the rules more and more. Lovely weather, only 50 deaths today, we are over it now, I'm off out.
It is why I think the government didn't want to go too early either, not just the fatigue, but they would have to have the plod rule with an iron fist as people wouldn't be scared enough to stay in.
The number of people I have had to explain what will happen to, when it was only 50 deaths or whatever...all saying, well that isn't many.
THat's why in my view the government needs to be ramping up capacity big time, big time while it can.
Suggest we wait until cases do actually fall. I'm equally certain most people don't want to be gasping for breath with no ventilator or any effective medical care because the hospital system is overwhelmed. We're in lockdown to avoid grisly death. People will give this precisely one second's thought before deciding they will take lockdown.
That is your point of view. One thing that is very, very hard is to grasp the mindset of people who have opposing views to ones own. They value things differently....
There will be be some people howling "LET ME OUT", without thought to the consequences.
Some people have a very low tolerance for social isolation. Some people are cooped up with people they hate/fear - the point about abusive/dysfunctional families. Some people are living in accommodation that is tolerable on the go-home-sleep-shower-leave on a daily basis. etc.
People will be screaming for the lockdown to end when it becomes clear that the three month "furlough" will not be anywhere near enough to stop the inevitable round of redundancies most companies are now considering.
Most people, even those on high incomes, tend to have little in the way of savings and plenty in terms of monthly outgoings - mortgages, car loans, etc. Few people I know believe the furlough will save their jobs or that we will simply pick up "as normal" in three months time.
S/E people will be in a fix. Sunak`s package is based on net profit rather than turnover.
At the moment we are being told the government will "do whatever it takes" - that has mollified most for now, but the grim realisation that it will not be nearly enough will kick in over the next few weeks.
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
Sure, the chattering classes will be affected big time, but if you are a self employed tradesman, for instance, with no savings (very common) then you are in big trouble now if you cannot work. And s/e people tend to regard their income as their turnover.
Looking at my s/e tax return, for example, Sunak is covering 80% of net proft, but above this line most of my outgoings are fixed and still have to be paid, Examples include: car tax, insurance and servicing, telephone, broadband, professional subscriptions, accountancy fees, computer costs, finance payments etc ets. Previously these fixed expenses were coming out of turnover. Now, during lockdown, they have to come out of net profit.
"I find the power politics of Hungary's Prime Minister Orbàn unbearable. But those who constantly pretend that one can just sanction Hungary in this way are wrong: not legally simple on the basis of the EU treaties. In France, for example, emergency laws have also been in force since Terror 2015"
Perhaps a German speaker could spruce this up for me, but the thrust seems clear enough.
I'd quibble with "einfach so" being apparently translated as "just... in this way", should be more like "easily" (just like that) . But I'm not a native speaker.
Your remark is correct. Otherwise the translation does capture the content of the original tweet.
I already reminded yesterday that the EU treaties do not comprise any legal provision for 'expelling' a member state, that marginalising or even expelling Hungary would be a political process, long drawn out over several stages if it ever came to that.
I would also like to remind Alistair that the tweet did not come from Martin Selmayr but from someone of a similar name.
Martin Selmayr retweeted it.
Yes, just have realised that, and edited my comment accordingly. Apologies.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
Not just the government, but the public decide to just float the rules more and more. Lovely weather, only 50 deaths today, we are over it now, I'm off out.
It is why I think the government didn't want to go too early either, not just the fatigue, but they would have to have the plod rule with an iron fist as people wouldn't be scared enough to stay in.
The number of people I have had to explain what will happen to, when it was only 50 deaths or whatever...all saying, well that isn't many.
THat's why in my view the government needs to be ramping up capacity big time, big time while it can.
Well it is why they want these anti-body tests and have now ordered 17.5 million of them...but they don't want to get caught out like some other countries with tests that over promise and under deliver e.g Spain with their 30% accuracy tests they got from China.
If we have millions of those in place in 10-12 weeks, we can give all the plague survivors big badges and let them out.
Suggest we wait until cases do actually fall. I'm equally certain most people don't want to be gasping for breath with no ventilator or any effective medical care because the hospital system is overwhelmed. We're in lockdown to avoid grisly death. People will give this precisely one second's thought before deciding they will take lockdown.
That is your point of view. One thing that is very, very hard is to grasp the mindset of people who have opposing views to ones own. They value things differently....
There will be be some people howling "LET ME OUT", without thought to the consequences.
Some people have a very low tolerance for social isolation. Some people are cooped up with people they hate/fear - the point about abusive/dysfunctional families. Some people are living in accommodation that is tolerable on the go-home-sleep-shower-leave on a daily basis. etc.
People will be screaming for the lockdown to end when it becomes clear that the three month "furlough" will not be anywhere near enough to stop the inevitable round of redundancies most companies are now considering.
Most people, even those on high incomes, tend to have little in the way of savings and plenty in terms of monthly outgoings - mortgages, car loans, etc. Few people I know believe the furlough will save their jobs or that we will simply pick up "as normal" in three months time.
S/E people will be in a fix. Sunak`s package is based on net profit rather than turnover.
At the moment we are being told the government will "do whatever it takes" - that has mollified most for now, but the grim realisation that it will not be nearly enough will kick in over the next few weeks.
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
Most middle management people in my experience are actually working at home at the moment with their jobs largely unaffected and their wages still coming in as usual
Yes, they are for the moment. The redundancies will come in a couple of months time when it's clear that aggregate demand across the economy is going to be depressed for the rest of the year.
My point is that we are still in the shock/denial phase right now, but companies will be looking at their bottom lines and looking at who to cut. A lot of people with previously secure middle class jobs are going to find they are nothing of the sort soon enough.
The three month "furlough" will not be nearly enough to save jobs and the government cannot keep paying everybody who loses their job their old salary. A lot of people who were previously earning a nice chunk of change are going to find out what it's like to try to live on £80 a week, and it won't be pretty.
At the moment I am speculating about where I think we will be in three months time, not where we are now. Come back to this post then, I think it will (unfortunately) age well.
Most city jobs, law firms, IT firms, civil service jobs, accountancy jobs, middle management jobs are continuing as usual (beyond airlines and a few clothing stores managers) and are working online and barely affected by this crisis with no need for furlough.
It is mainly working class hairdressers, restaurant, bar, cafe, cinema, clothing store and gym workers who cannot work online who need furlough and whose wages and jobs are most under threat (though if they work for a supermarket they are of course seeing an increase in demand and more jobs being created, as they are if they work for the NHS, deliveroo or Amazon)
Again, I'm talking about what happens in three months time when the furlough ends. I think most hairdressers will get back to work, restaurant workers will find new jobs.
It's the people who have been in previously safe middle class jobs who have the most to worry about in the long term. Take management consultants. Your Accentures, your McKinseys. In good times, they make a fortune charging big businesses extortionate amounts. In bad times, they are seen as fat and are the first to be cut.
It is my guess that there will be a lot more management consultants out of work than hairdressers in six months time.
But as I say, it is speculation. I'm not talking about who is in work now. Let's see where we are in three months, six months, a year's time.
As I said most office business can continue online and once hairdressers etc start to go back to work the economy as a whole will pick up again too
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
I will never complain about the coffee in the reading room again. Well, not for at least a month.
How anyone could want to work from home all the time is beyond me.
I did from the age of 40. I am now 65. I thought it wonderful that I never had to commute and could do whatever I wanted to (Conference call in dressing gown while breaking in the new ski boots).
I am finding this weird now. For decades I had an empty house. I now have 5 in it full time. I am retired but have never been so busy.
Not in the least stressed either (and the pension fund has plummeted and the holiday of a life time starting on 30 April in the USA has a probability of 0000001% of happening [not cancelled yet!]).
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Because the belief - which I share - is that as an individual he would be unable to resist making mischief over this. Releasing data or playing politics. Something that Sturgeon and the other leaders have worked very hard not to do. Something I believe Starmer would resist as well. I just don't trust Corbyn, not as a Labour Leader but as an individual.
Edit: I should add that he is the only Labour leader in my lifetime that I would say this about. All of the rest I would trust implicitly to do the right thing rather than play politics.
And what if Johnson was the Opposition Leader to a Labour government under these circumstances? Same reservations?
Three weeks ago I would have said absolutely. Perhaps even greater. To be honest right now after his performance over the last few weeks I am not so sure but he would still be, at best, borderline.
Overall I would say we are poorly served by all our political leaders at present - with the possible exception of Sturgeon even though I am not an SNP supporter.
On topic, I went over the top ages ago suggesting the Labour Party would rig the leadership election so its too late for me to change my mind. I hope to be made a fool of by the sweeping Starmer victory. However, all the signs are there that something is afoot, and the situation we find ourselves in provides them with the perfect cover to pull a coup off.
Despite the polls I remain convinced that a significant percentage of the membership remain wedded to Corbyn and Corbynism. Not the membership who turn out to meetings (eg the 26 out of 700 in Stockton South who went to their selection meeting), its the "silent majority" I refer to. For some of these not to vote RLB is like asking Nazi Party members in June 1945 to suddenly support the communists.
And why would anyone be surprised at a "shock" RLB victory. After all Jeremy won, Jeremy won. They've nationalised the railways and private hospitals. They're paying people's salaries. There is a wave of public revulsion towards evil capitalists like Ashley and Branson and Martin. People are helping each other. And you suggest Labour members will throw all this away and vote for a man who is basically a Tory himself? No! They will follow True Socialism and vote for RLB. A narrow win, but a win. So they will say.
Deputy? Would be genuinely hilarious if it was ding-dong Burgon, but that would be so outlandish as to highlight the theft of the leadership position. Better to install a pliable half on board traitor like Rayner.
You should seek Mental Health treatment.
'For some of these not to vote RLB is like asking Nazi Party members in June 1945 to suddenly support the communists.'
I have no time for politicians of any hue, but BoJo has listened to the scientists this time.
The journalists are the ones behaving like seven-year-olds here. I understand many are thickos but don't advertise it so blatantly for all to see. A degree in expressive dance or whatever doesn't make you an expert at anything else. At least, understand your shortcomings.
Victoria Dernyshire hosted a Q and A this morning on BBC and it was refreshing to listen to it. I realised why afterwards. Because there were so many questions, she didn't have time to interject or try and make a childish point or a political point.
The experts were allowed time to explain carefully the things that Whitty, Vallance et al had already explained
Scientists often disagree and they will argue their point fervently. The experts who make the decisions are not always in the right but it's usually the best way to go until they are proven wrong. Journalists and celebrities are no better than the bloke down the pub who always has an opinion.
Does Beth think that any of her ramblings are in any way useful?
Yes - in choosing to highlight Philip Lee she omits some interesting features of his backstory - the ex Tory MP who crossed the floor - humiliated in the GE, hates Boris....
The media's bias is so blatant as to be truly laughable...
Not just bias, but inability to understand the complexities and think a 'gotcha' moment passes for serious journalism
The ones who are damaging their reputations in this crisis are many high profile political journalists
I want HMG held to account with forensic and knowledgeable questioning not the banal actions of the press just now
So you should welcome the detailed and forensic points that Phillip Lee made.
Heaven forfend, BigG, that anyone might accuse you of being slavishly loyal, even when it appears that government inaction has made the current crisis worse.
Philip Lee may have a valid point or two but no one has the right answer to this crisis.
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
Oh well, never mind. A few hundred people might have avoidably died, but since it was an error of a Conservative government, that doesn't matter. Best not worry too much about it.
That is not worthy of you Alastair
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
Read your own words. You brush aside detailed and serious accusations. Till you take them seriously, I won't take your protestations seriously either.
So obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the NHS in 2016 should have forgot all about the 4 hour target for A&E, the need to improve mental health services, the cancer targets and everything else that everyone was screaming about and focused all their efforts on preparing for a pandemic that might not have come for another decade.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
What is it with supporters of this government that everything is either/or? Are Conservatives incapable of farting and chewing gum at the same time? Some attention to this recognised long term serious risk would have been in order. The government has serious questions to answer here.
It's all very well saying we should have planned for a pandemic. It's a bit more problematic saying we should have planned for this particular pandemic. There were many possibilities, and not necessarily much overlap in terms of what would have been required to mitigate (at least in medical terms). The S Koreans and others have been lucky in that they've had a few incidents which looked quite similar (SARS, MERS etc), but there was no particular reason this should have continued.
There's a question to be asked about how the government communicates with the population, but the answer to that involves the phrase "social media" quite quickly, and that opens up a whole can of worms that society is struggling to deal with on a day-to-day basis, never mind under stressed conditions. I don't imagine that moving to lock down the free press and nationalise the BBC would have been risk-free measures.
Do most people really need to go more than once a week? When I was a youngster, that's exactly what we did, in fact I think it might have even been every 2 weeks.
It seems a cultural thing now, that people don't think about meals for the week ahead and end up going every day or two.
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
Doesn't the UK want to enter a FTA with the EU?
It's a very low ambition FTA that the UK government has in mind for its relationship with the EU.
I do wonder whether that lack of ambition might be rethought. You despise China; the US is so unreliable self interest is best served by keeping well away; Russia is no good. Given all that, does Europe look so bad?
On topic, I went over the top ages ago suggesting the Labour Party would rig the leadership election so its too late for me to change my mind. I hope to be made a fool of by the sweeping Starmer victory. However, all the signs are there that something is afoot, and the situation we find ourselves in provides them with the perfect cover to pull a coup off.
Despite the polls I remain convinced that a significant percentage of the membership remain wedded to Corbyn and Corbynism. Not the membership who turn out to meetings (eg the 26 out of 700 in Stockton South who went to their selection meeting), its the "silent majority" I refer to. For some of these not to vote RLB is like asking Nazi Party members in June 1945 to suddenly support the communists.
And why would anyone be surprised at a "shock" RLB victory. After all Jeremy won, Jeremy won. They've nationalised the railways and private hospitals. They're paying people's salaries. There is a wave of public revulsion towards evil capitalists like Ashley and Branson and Martin. People are helping each other. And you suggest Labour members will throw all this away and vote for a man who is basically a Tory himself? No! They will follow True Socialism and vote for RLB. A narrow win, but a win. So they will say.
Deputy? Would be genuinely hilarious if it was ding-dong Burgon, but that would be so outlandish as to highlight the theft of the leadership position. Better to install a pliable half on board traitor like Rayner.
You should seek Mental Health treatment.
'For some of these not to vote RLB is like asking Nazi Party members in June 1945 to suddenly support the communists.'
Of course lots of them did.
Fun history - the Gestapo started with the Prussian Political Police who were quite successful at putting the hammer on various Nazi activities. When the Nazis came to power Heydrich re-tasked them....
When the war ended, quite a lot ended up working in the Stasi, and enthusiastically went back to hunting (other) Nazis.
There is an urban legend that when the wall came down, a bunch of ancient retirees volunteered to help the unified Germany hunt down any communists....
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Well my local hospital, Torrevieja on the Costa Blanca has 17 covid 19 cases in icu and 70 requiring hospitalization. This taking almost all of the 1000+ staff to cope and additional resource has now been drafted in. The cases must come from further up the coast because south of Torrevieja there has only been a handful of cases.
Germany’s coronavirus death rate is rising and will continue to do so, the government’s health adviser has warned.
Lothar Wieler, who runs the Robert Koch institute, says the rate is still relatively low (0.8%) because of widespread early testing and the fact that the majority of the early cases involved younger, healthy people with mild symptoms.
But he adds that older people are now testing positive and the virus is spreading to hospitals and care homes, which makes him think the death rate will rise further.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
And though I think most people know that I dont think they get it deep down. It's going to be frustrating to keep it up when things look like improving.
Our local fish and chip shop has closed until further notice.
Anyone else seeing their takeaways shut down shop?
My local chinese is cash only, I want to support them but it's not recommended to pay in cash right now ><</p>
They are the guys taking the risk from your cash. Tell them to give the change to charity if you don't want the risk coming back to you. (Although, that risk is already there in taking their food off them.)
On topic, I went over the top ages ago suggesting the Labour Party would rig the leadership election so its too late for me to change my mind. I hope to be made a fool of by the sweeping Starmer victory. However, all the signs are there that something is afoot, and the situation we find ourselves in provides them with the perfect cover to pull a coup off.
Despite the polls I remain convinced that a significant percentage of the membership remain wedded to Corbyn and Corbynism. Not the membership who turn out to meetings (eg the 26 out of 700 in Stockton South who went to their selection meeting), its the "silent majority" I refer to. For some of these not to vote RLB is like asking Nazi Party members in June 1945 to suddenly support the communists.
And why would anyone be surprised at a "shock" RLB victory. After all Jeremy won, Jeremy won. They've nationalised the railways and private hospitals. They're paying people's salaries. There is a wave of public revulsion towards evil capitalists like Ashley and Branson and Martin. People are helping each other. And you suggest Labour members will throw all this away and vote for a man who is basically a Tory himself? No! They will follow True Socialism and vote for RLB. A narrow win, but a win. So they will say.
Deputy? Would be genuinely hilarious if it was ding-dong Burgon, but that would be so outlandish as to highlight the theft of the leadership position. Better to install a pliable half on board traitor like Rayner.
You should seek Mental Health treatment.
'For some of these not to vote RLB is like asking Nazi Party members in June 1945 to suddenly support the communists.'
Of course lots of them did.
Fun history - the Gestapo started with the Prussian Political Police who were quite successful at putting the hammer on various Nazi activities. When the Nazis came to power Heydrich re-tasked them....
When the war ended, quite a lot ended up working in the Stasi, and enthusiastically went back to hunting (other) Nazis.
There is an urban legend that when the wall came down, a bunch of ancient retirees volunteered to help the unified Germany hunt down any communists....
'My skills are transferrable and I cope well with change.'
Do most people really need to go more than once a week? When I was a youngster, that's exactly what we did, in fact I think it might have even been every 2 weeks.
It seems a cultural thing now, that people don't think about meals for the week ahead and end up going every day or two.
I last shopped 3 weeks ago and still fine.
In normal times shopping every day works well because you buy exactly what you want and waste nothing.
Do most people really need to go more than once a week? When I was a youngster, that's exactly what we did, in fact I think it might have even been every 2 weeks.
It seems a cultural thing now, that people don't think about meals for the week ahead and end up going every day or two.
I last shopped 3 weeks ago and still fine.
I don't have a car, I pop in normally about three times a week, plus a Tesco delivery a fortnight or so.
This has been a big change for me! A shopping list for the first time in years.
Yes, they are for the moment. The redundancies will come in a couple of months time when it's clear that aggregate demand across the economy is going to be depressed for the rest of the year.
My point is that we are still in the shock/denial phase right now, but companies will be looking at their bottom lines and looking at who to cut. A lot of people with previously secure middle class jobs are going to find they are nothing of the sort soon enough.
The three month "furlough" will not be nearly enough to save jobs and the government cannot keep paying everybody who loses their job their old salary. A lot of people who were previously earning a nice chunk of change are going to find out what it's like to try to live on £80 a week, and it won't be pretty.
At the moment I am speculating about where I think we will be in three months time, not where we are now. Come back to this post then, I think it will (unfortunately) age well.
As someone who fits very much into this middle manager category, I completely agree. I suspect a lot of my colleagues can't see it yet but I think by December my firm I work for will be much reduced. I may still have a job. I don't think I will have as much salary however (and my wife is about to learn some hard lessons therefore).
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
I will never complain about the coffee in the reading room again. Well, not for at least a month.
How anyone could want to work from home all the time is beyond me.
It just takes a different kind of discipline. I have done it for the last decade.
I get easily twice as much work done at home as I do working in the office. Far fewer pointless meetings, far fewer 'quick chats', people actually thinking things through for themselves rather than coming and asking questions that, if they considered for 30 seconds they would realise they already knew the answer to.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Well my local hospital, Torrevieja on the Costa Blanca has 17 covid 19 cases in icu and 70 requiring hospitalization. This taking almost all of the 1000+ staff to cope and additional resource has now been drafted in. The cases must come from further up the coast because south of Torrevieja there has only been a handful of cases.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical. The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Well my local hospital, Torrevieja on the Costa Blanca has 17 covid 19 cases in icu and 70 requiring hospitalization. This taking almost all of the 1000+ staff to cope and additional resource has now been drafted in. The cases must come from further up the coast because south of Torrevieja there has only been a handful of cases.
Is there any information about the percentage of these cases who are expats?
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical.
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Its the same in Winchester, Southampton and Bournemouth hospitals. Wards are closed, nurses shifts are cancelled. In the community at surgeries it is even quieter. Everything is done over the phone. Virtually no patients coming in.
Huawei will be pushed out of UK 5G, I believe. It's totemic (and to be honest, token).
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
Doesn't the UK want to enter a FTA with the EU?
It's a very low ambition FTA that the UK government has in mind for its relationship with the EU.
I do wonder whether that lack of ambition might be rethought. You despise China; the US is so unreliable self interest is best served by keeping well away; Russia is no good. Given all that, does Europe look so bad?
Who says the UK doesn't want a relationship with the EU? That doesn't mean being a part of it.
Most city jobs, law firms, IT firms, civil service jobs, accountancy jobs, middle management jobs are continuing as usual (beyond airlines and a few clothing stores managers) and are working online and barely affected by this crisis with no need for furlough.
It is mainly working class hairdressers, restaurant, bar, cafe, cinema, clothing store and gym workers who cannot work online who need furlough and whose wages and jobs are most under threat (though if they work for a supermarket they are of course seeing an increase in demand and more jobs being created, as they are if they work for the NHS, deliveroo or Amazon)
But regrettably these are the bread and butter of our society. If they suffer a shock, then we will suffer a shock.
If they can't move house (conveyance), can't go on holiday (travel agents) or just generally reduce economic activity then it doesn't matter what those above think, they are going down too.
There are only so many corporate finance deals you can do before someone realises that its all just a massive con.
An unfair comparison. The US map will always look much busier, even during normal times.
Gov't has told people to "get home". Our airports should be closed to all but repatriation and freight already tbh. You have to wonder who on earth is flying for non repatriation reasons at the moment though.
The USA internal flight market is a real weak point in their country's battle against Covid-19.
An unfair comparison. The US map will always look much busier, even during normal times.
Gov't has told people to "get home". Our airports should be closed to all but repatriation and freight already tbh. You have to wonder who on earth is flying for non repatriation reasons at the moment though.
Looks like a handful of flights throughout the entire country. No doubt there are some critical jobs that require people to move around a lot, so having some availability is probably a good thing.
Sure, the chattering classes will be affected big time, but if you are a self employed tradesman, for instance, with no savings (very common) then you are in big trouble now if you cannot work. And s/e people tend to regard their income as their turnover.
Looking at my s/e tax return, for example, Sunak is covering 80% of net proft, but above this line most of my outgoings are fixed and still have to be paid, Examples include: car tax, insurance and servicing, telephone, broadband, professional subscriptions, accountancy fees, computer costs, finance payments etc ets. Previously these fixed expenses were coming out of turnover. Now, during lockdown, they have to come out of net profit.
And this is where huge amounts of self employed will be caught out.
You see, those items should only BE business expenses. The clue of 'wholly and necessary' (or whatever the definition is - I'm an accountant, not a tax accountant) was there because they related to your business. In theory, if your business is gone, so as these expenses.
Ring your insurer and get the business cover taken off your car. Don't drive 100 miles to see a client. Ditch your 'work' mobile. Etc etc.
Except of course, whether accidently or deliberately (and I've seen a lot of the latter), huge amounts of personal expenditure ends up on SA tax returns.
The Welsh health minister has expressed his frustration at a decision by a private company to pull out of a contract to provide 5,000 extra Covid-19 tests in Wales a day.
Ten day ago Vaughan Gething said that by tomorrow - 1 April - Wales would be able to carry out 6,000 tests a day, which would have helped get more frontline NHS staff back to work more quickly.
But the contract with the private company fell through, leaving Wales only able to carry out 800 tests at the moment with this set to rise slightly to 1,100 by the end of the week. So far Wales has tested around 1,000 health and social care staff.
Comments
With the exception of South Korea and Germany all countries are being overwhelmed by the magnitude of this disaster and it is not remotely feasable for any government to have in place the methods and equipment to instantly resolve this
The public are clearly on HMG side and it will be months, indeed years, to see which countries were more successful than others.
However, it is my belief that the combined political consensus on Cobra including the three first ministers and Khan to follow the science of their advisors is the only path any government could follow
The difference is this time it will not only impact those whose lives have always been tenuous - the zero hours contract people, the minimum wage people, etc.
A fair few people who were previously sitting pretty in nice middle management 50k+ a year jobs will now be looking at not being able to make mortgage payments and having to survive on £80 a week universal credit once the 3 month furlough period is over.
The chattering classes are going to be affected by this, big time. They will soon be getting first hand experience of how insecure the lives of the other side of society are. There will be calls that *something* must be done, but they will be entirely self-interested.
And I am surprised you should even think I think like that
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/boeing-ceo-does-not-want-us-to-take-stake-in-company-after-coronavirus-stimulus/ar-BB11DX5a
As for the UK declaring Cold War on China, it would make itself look ridiculous. Is the UK going to have meaningful relationships with anyone? There's Australia, maybe at a pinch Japan and, um ...
I suspect Boeing will have to mothball most civilian production for a couple of years, and hope that enough military contracts can keep enough jobs alive.
Airbus will have the same problem.
They come over here, they give us their viruses...
The warnings were made at the time: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-fails-to-cope-with-bodies-in-flu-pandemic-test-8pnmdpdfx
I doubt many Western countries want to get caught out again finding they can't get PPE, because the Chinese took their own firms stock (because it is produced in a factory in China) or can't get base chemicals for loads of crucial tests.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
There are people in the media and on here claiming Boris to be the new Churchill, as on the whole he has got things reasonably right. Because he has got things reasonably right (so far) there are calls for any dissent to be quashed. This is very dangerous. If people with some subject knowledge like Lee (and Hunt) are shouted down because they are deemed quisling enemies of Johnson that is not good.
And there is a very good reason for that.
My point is that we are still in the shock/denial phase right now, but companies will be looking at their bottom lines and looking at who to cut. A lot of people with previously secure middle class jobs are going to find they are nothing of the sort soon enough.
The three month "furlough" will not be nearly enough to save jobs and the government cannot keep paying everybody who loses their job their old salary. A lot of people who were previously earning a nice chunk of change are going to find out what it's like to try to live on £80 a week, and it won't be pretty.
At the moment I am speculating about where I think we will be in three months time, not where we are now. Come back to this post then, I think it will (unfortunately) age well.
And failing to do this but paying attention to these other priorities was nothing short of gross negligence. I mean, really. This is bordering on childishness.
And his questioning of the egg-heads, I think was also a useful exercise. None of the usual grand standing nonsense from those events.
I have included South Korea and Sweden as they have distinctive strategies.
https://twitter.com/edwardjdavey/status/1244926800628781056?s=21
It is mainly working class hairdressers, restaurant, bar, cafe, cinema, clothing store and gym workers who cannot work online who need furlough and whose wages and jobs are most under threat (though if they work for a supermarket they are of course seeing an increase in demand and more jobs being created, as they are if they work for the NHS, deliveroo or Amazon)
Of course there are commentators who are going to criticise whatever the government or the tories do.
But try to imagine if Corbyn was prime minister and was saying and doing exactly the same things wrt Covid-19 as Johnson (and I don't think he'd be doing things very differently). Should any questioning of government response be met with - how dare you question Jeremy?
The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
It is why I think the government didn't want to go too early either, not just the fatigue, but they would have to have the plod rule with an iron fist as people wouldn't be scared enough to stay in.
The number of people I have had to explain what will happen to, when it was only 50 deaths or whatever...all saying, well that isn't many.
from your earlier post.
Sounds a bit either\or to me, were you farting or chewing gum at the time ?
I already reminded yesterday that the EU treaties do not comprise any legal provision for 'expelling' a member state, that marginalising or even expelling Hungary would be a political process, long drawn out over several stages if it ever came to that.
I would also like to remind Alastair that the tweet did not come from Martin Selmayr but from someone of a similar name.
Edit: just realised that Alastair correctly stated that Selmyer merely retweeted it
This was so much not a remote possibility that the idea had been wargamed (twice, it seems, in the last decade). So did other countries. It was so much not a remote possibility that the WHO felt it necessary to judge countries on their pandemic preparedness.
If that is true we are very much behind the 8 ball.
It's the people who have been in previously safe middle class jobs who have the most to worry about in the long term. Take management consultants. Your Accentures, your McKinseys. In good times, they make a fortune charging big businesses extortionate amounts. In bad times, they are seen as fat and are the first to be cut.
It is my guess that there will be a lot more management consultants out of work than hairdressers in six months time.
But as I say, it is speculation. I'm not talking about who is in work now. Let's see where we are in three months, six months, a year's time.
Targets slipped and nobody thought perhaps we ought to buy some ventilators whilst the NHS continues on.
David L accusing critics of being childish is pathetic as his own defence of the situation we find ourselves in is precisely that
We got away with SARs, MERs, Ebola etc never really breaking out in the West and the few cases that did get here, they were on a scale that the systems could cope.
South Korea experienced SARs and MERs and obviously much closer to China, so don't take any of this lightly.
It is also why we haven't really got vaccines as far as long as they should, because all the work on SARs / MERs faded into the background because it fizzled out without it causing mass deaths in the west.
Looking at my s/e tax return, for example, Sunak is covering 80% of net proft, but above this line most of my outgoings are fixed and still have to be paid, Examples include: car tax, insurance and servicing, telephone, broadband, professional subscriptions, accountancy fees, computer costs, finance payments etc ets. Previously these fixed expenses were coming out of turnover. Now, during lockdown, they have to come out of net profit.
Gradual release of schools back, non food shops open, barbers etc.
Then cafes, pubs etc a week or so later.
If we have millions of those in place in 10-12 weeks, we can give all the plague survivors big badges and let them out.
I am finding this weird now. For decades I had an empty house. I now have 5 in it full time. I am retired but have never been so busy.
Not in the least stressed either (and the pension fund has plummeted and the holiday of a life time starting on 30 April in the USA has a probability of 0000001% of happening [not cancelled yet!]).
Overall I would say we are poorly served by all our political leaders at present - with the possible exception of Sturgeon even though I am not an SNP supporter.
Of course lots of them did.
I have no time for politicians of any hue, but BoJo has listened to the scientists this time.
The journalists are the ones behaving like seven-year-olds here. I understand many are thickos but don't advertise it so blatantly for all to see. A degree in expressive dance or whatever doesn't make you an expert at anything else. At least, understand your shortcomings.
Victoria Dernyshire hosted a Q and A this morning on BBC and it was refreshing to listen to it. I realised why afterwards. Because there were so many questions, she didn't have time to interject or try and make a childish point or a political point.
The experts were allowed time to explain carefully the things that Whitty, Vallance et al had already explained
Scientists often disagree and they will argue their point fervently. The experts who make the decisions are not always in the right but it's usually the best way to go until they are proven wrong. Journalists and celebrities are no better than the bloke down the pub who always has an opinion.
There's a question to be asked about how the government communicates with the population, but the answer to that involves the phrase "social media" quite quickly, and that opens up a whole can of worms that society is struggling to deal with on a day-to-day basis, never mind under stressed conditions. I don't imagine that moving to lock down the free press and nationalise the BBC would have been risk-free measures.
It seems a cultural thing now, that people don't think about meals for the week ahead and end up going every day or two.
I last shopped 3 weeks ago and still fine.
I do wonder whether that lack of ambition might be rethought. You despise China; the US is so unreliable self interest is best served by keeping well away; Russia is no good. Given all that, does Europe look so bad?
When the war ended, quite a lot ended up working in the Stasi, and enthusiastically went back to hunting (other) Nazis.
There is an urban legend that when the wall came down, a bunch of ancient retirees volunteered to help the unified Germany hunt down any communists....
Lothar Wieler, who runs the Robert Koch institute, says the rate is still relatively low (0.8%) because of widespread early testing and the fact that the majority of the early cases involved younger, healthy people with mild symptoms.
But he adds that older people are now testing positive and the virus is spreading to hospitals and care homes, which makes him think the death rate will rise further.
This has been a big change for me! A shopping list for the first time in years.
I get easily twice as much work done at home as I do working in the office. Far fewer pointless meetings, far fewer 'quick chats', people actually thinking things through for themselves rather than coming and asking questions that, if they considered for 30 seconds they would realise they already knew the answer to.
In the community at surgeries it is even quieter. Everything is done over the phone. Virtually no patients coming in.
If they can't move house (conveyance), can't go on holiday (travel agents) or just generally reduce economic activity then it doesn't matter what those above think, they are going down too.
There are only so many corporate finance deals you can do before someone realises that its all just a massive con.
The USA internal flight market is a real weak point in their country's battle against Covid-19.
You see, those items should only BE business expenses. The clue of 'wholly and necessary' (or whatever the definition is - I'm an accountant, not a tax accountant) was there because they related to your business. In theory, if your business is gone, so as these expenses.
Ring your insurer and get the business cover taken off your car. Don't drive 100 miles to see a client. Ditch your 'work' mobile. Etc etc.
Except of course, whether accidently or deliberately (and I've seen a lot of the latter), huge amounts of personal expenditure ends up on SA tax returns.
Ten day ago Vaughan Gething said that by tomorrow - 1 April - Wales would be able to carry out 6,000 tests a day, which would have helped get more frontline NHS staff back to work more quickly.
But the contract with the private company fell through, leaving Wales only able to carry out 800 tests at the moment with this set to rise slightly to 1,100 by the end of the week. So far Wales has tested around 1,000 health and social care staff.