On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical. The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Well my local hospital, Torrevieja on the Costa Blanca has 17 covid 19 cases in icu and 70 requiring hospitalization. This taking almost all of the 1000+ staff to cope and additional resource has now been drafted in. The cases must come from further up the coast because south of Torrevieja there has only been a handful of cases.
Is there any information about the percentage of these cases who are expats?
Where I am further to the south there is nothing on the various news channels and forums suggesting any cases - but we have very few here in total. On the costas blanca and del sol I guess there must be several caeses.
Thanks to you both for your replies. I was just wondering if the expat community was taking greater care than the local Spaniards.
Our inability to get the proper levels of testing done is going to lead to thousands of additional deaths.
I am sure the government are just sitting on their arse doing nothing. You might have noticed that the Labour Welsh government tried to increase their testing capacity by 5,000, and the private company they hired to do it, have said it isn't possible and walked away from the deal.
36.5%, if I've calculated it correctly, is a new high in the +ve rate for the test. Bearing in mind a false negative rate of 25% has been quoted, it would suggest almost half of those tested have the virus.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.
36.5%, if I've calculated it correctly, is a new high in the +ve rate for the test. Bearing in mind a false positive rate of 25% has been quoted, it would suggest almost half of those tested have the virus.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.
False negatives (people testing negative, but who do have disease) not false positives at 25%. As the test is for COVID19 RNA, there is probably a very low false positive rate (test positive, but really dont have it).
Yes, had the polarity switched for the words, but not the reasoning.
Speaking of the possible delays in recording the incidence of weekend hospital deaths owing to staff issues, etc, does anyone have the comparative figures for last Tuesday (I.e. recording last Monday's deaths) to check whether there was a similar pattern then?
Speaking of the possible delays in recording the incidence of weekend hospital deaths owing to staff issues, etc, does anyone have the comparative figures for last Tuesday (I.e. recording last Monday's deaths) to check whether there was a similar pattern then?
The government has to tread carefully A few restive opinion former voices like William Hague and Tody Young are starting to question the wisdom of a long lockdown. They are also looking at the size of the economic hit with horror, and calculating how many deaths a prolonged recesssion might cause.
The government does not have as long on this as it thinks it does. It better ramp up preparations now, much as it can, and prepare for a loosening.
The pressures are building. It would be very easy to lose control of a situation like this.
The biggest factor will be boredom. A lot of my home workers are itching to come back.
I will never complain about the coffee in the reading room again. Well, not for at least a month.
How anyone could want to work from home all the time is beyond me.
Agreed. Its terrible. And unproductive. I have a new respect for the authors on this site who have the self discipline to apply themselves consistently to their craft in that way.
Is it that unproductive though? How many people working from home are still doing what it takes to do their job?
One of the big changes that might come out of this is the realisation that many can work four day weeks.
Your posts have been required reading throughout this Mark – some sharp observations and well as not a little empathy. I jump to them.
I agree with you more than David here – insofar as I think a mixture of home and group working is best for most professionals. I think most will crave some human face time while accepting that doing essentially solitary written project work or making calls when surrounded by a cast of thousands is nonsensical.
...and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the bombing was still going on.
My father, who lived in rural Lincolnshire, spent a lot of time with relatives in London during the war. I think the excitement played a big part, and of course death was not as big a "thing" as now.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
I've had absolutely no problems understanding your posts (apart from disagreeing with some of your views!).
Absolutely the same with me. Keep posting.
There's also the problem, especially for those of us with poor typing skills, of Fat Finger Syndrome. FFS doesn't always For F%%k's Sake!
If the previous days numbers are anything to go by 10,000 equates to less than 6,000 people tested too.
No, you are wrong. 8240.
134,946 -> 143,186
8,240 tests is about 5,000 individuals based on previous 2 days data.
Fair enough, I see what you are saying. But, nobody is trying to "guess-estimate" individuals, it is impossible to know. So should stick to the data we do have.
Today's rise in confirmed cases is very encouraging indeed. The current increase is not exponential. This may top out below initial expectations.
Without pre-empting anything or doing a reverse Eadric, people were saying this was exponential from three data points. Whether it was then and now isn't of course is a valid point.
Speaking of the possible delays in recording the incidence of weekend hospital deaths owing to staff issues, etc, does anyone have the comparative figures for last Tuesday (I.e. recording last Monday's deaths) to check whether there was a similar pattern then?
Today's rise in confirmed cases is very encouraging indeed. The current increase is not exponential. This may top out below initial expectations.
It does suggest that admissions to hospital over the past few days have been growing roughly linearly (assuming all tests really are from those admitted to hospital). It's not enough broader testing but is mildly encouraging. It will rise, almost surely, over the next few days, but hopefully the rate is not too extreme.
On lockdown fatigue, don't forget we're in still in the ramp up stage of the disease. We're broadly tracking Italy, if hopefully a bit slower. Once we get to the stage where hospitals are struggling to cope, it won't feel hypothetical. The risk is at ramp down, if the government lets go too quickly and we have to go through the whole thing again.
At the moment I am told that Ninewells Hospital in Dundee is as quiet as it has ever been. Wards cleared out, outpatients cancelled, elective surgery deferred indefinitely, doctors (including those returned to service) twiddling their thumbs. I really hope it stays like that.
Well my local hospital, Torrevieja on the Costa Blanca has 17 covid 19 cases in icu and 70 requiring hospitalization. This taking almost all of the 1000+ staff to cope and additional resource has now been drafted in. The cases must come from further up the coast because south of Torrevieja there has only been a handful of cases.
Is there any information about the percentage of these cases who are expats?
Where I am further to the south there is nothing on the various news channels and forums suggesting any cases - but we have very few here in total. On the costas blanca and del sol I guess there must be several caeses.
Thanks to you both for your replies. I was just wondering if the expat community was taking greater care than the local Spaniards.
Oh no - in my zone absolutely everyone is totally on board. I reckon there'd have been no shortage of volunteers to block the roads from second homers had there been a call. We have soldiers and Guardia on patrol as well. All very friendly when I've encountered them - but it does make me annoyed at some of the whingeing about the British Police and the dramas about Easter eggs. Then we have on the other side Toby Young making a total fool of himself. It makes one wonder what has got to happen before some people get how real this all is.
Today's rise in confirmed cases is very encouraging indeed. The current increase is not exponential. This may top out below initial expectations.
There are measurement issues since they're generally only testing hospitalizations.
So, for example, if the threshold for hospitalising suspected cases has changed then you will test a smaller fraction of suspected cases and not measure an exponential increase.
Speaking of the possible delays in recording the incidence of weekend hospital deaths owing to staff issues, etc, does anyone have the comparative figures for last Tuesday (I.e. recording last Monday's deaths) to check whether there was a similar pattern then?
It is so long as you remember the hell that has to be endured in order to get there. Apart from Toby Young being a sh** the great danger now is complacency. It will surely get worse before it gets better.
Our inability to get the proper levels of testing done is going to lead to thousands of additional deaths.
I quite agree. Given this was the big lesson out of the exalant response from South Korea, its a relay tragedy that it was not prioratsed more.
There is an artical in the times today saying its linked to a chemical needed for the PCS machines that run the tests, but that has not stopped Germany or more lately the USA ramping up testing very quickly.
I understand that at the moment all the testing is being done in government labs, but I am shore that non government Labs would have been able to find 'work around' new supply s, or something much quicker, because they are normally more dynamic.
I relay say this but we should have been 'throwing money' at testing. I wonder if the apparent success of china in stopping the virus with there lock down, took attention away form SK and therefore lessons where not learnt properly.
Sky's Sarah Jane Mee talks to Terry Waite. Ex-hostage in Lebanon gives advice to keeping well during Coronavirus isolation.
I know Boris has been accused of being a right-wing authoritarian and the police have been overstepping the mark, but I am not sure our lockdown compares to being chained to a radiator for years on end.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
King Cole, my problem is rare but massive homophonic typos, so bad that sometimes even I don't know what I meant to write.
There was one time that was alarming when I hit all the right keys, relative to one another, but my hand was one space to the left so what I wrote was nonsense. Had a brief moment worrying whether my brain had decided its services were no longer required.
36.5%, if I've calculated it correctly, is a new high in the +ve rate for the test. Bearing in mind a false negative rate of 25% has been quoted, it would suggest almost half of those tested have the virus.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.
Italy's positive rate peaked in the low to mid 30s, and is now 17%.
36.5%, if I've calculated it correctly, is a new high in the +ve rate for the test. Bearing in mind a false positive rate of 25% has been quoted, it would suggest almost half of those tested have the virus.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.
False negatives (people testing negative, but who do have disease) not false positives at 25%. As the test is for COVID19 RNA, there is probably a very low false positive rate (test positive, but really dont have it).
Yes, had the polarity switched for the words, but not the reasoning.
For screening, you really want a test that is the reverse, with higher false positives and low false negatives, with a secondary test to investigate further. Mammography then biopsy as an example.
Today's rise in confirmed cases is very encouraging indeed. The current increase is not exponential. This may top out below initial expectations.
There are measurement issues since they're generally only testing hospitalizations.
So, for example, if the threshold for hospitalising suspected cases has changed then you will test a smaller fraction of suspected cases and not measure an exponential increase.
It's far too soon to be complacent, I agree, and the restricted testing is definitely a real cause for concern. But let's take the good news that we can for now.
Does Liz Truss have a union flag in her living room so she can sit in front of it for WFH videoconferences?
LOL I suppose if you have one, you need to keep it some where. I wonder if this was a Corbyn Cabinet Videoconferenc, would we see a few hammer and sickle, or maybe Cuban flags?
Young would be telling people in the Blitz to just get out and about when there was an air raid, as their chances of being killed by the bombing was not that great (and, looking at just the numbers, they weren't). He's a good example of someone who has such a fixed ideology that the whole 'reality on the ground' thing passes him by.
Ref the Blits, yes it killed a lot of people but of intent no where near as many as expected, The initale estimates where that 500,000 would be killed in the first week if the Germans started boming the capital, and large numbers 'sell evacuated' in the end 43,000 where killed between June 1940 and May 1941, which is a bit number, but implys a rate of killing only 2% of the anticipated level, and a lot of people who had evacuated the capital came back while the boming was still going on.
Interesting but what were the assumptions? Was that also a top end estimate without defences factored in, for example?
I mean the Dresden bombings killed 25,000 in three days, so it's not a silly estimate, depending on the assumptions underlying it, even though what actually happened was as you describe.
The estimates I understand where based on the bombing in Spain in the civil war there. However they may not have been accurate for a number of reasons,
1) The Journalists where often not in the towns affected. and relying on second hand info.
2) There was a lot of incentive to exaggerate the numbers killed to get international sympathy.
3) Some bombing raids killed nobody, therefor, where not reported and therefor average killed per plane, killed per tone of bomes where squid.
On a walking tour of Alicante a couple of years ago they took us to a memorial for the victims of a bombing raid on the market place which probably killed more civilians than the one in Guernica. Of course it didn't have arguably the most famous painting of the 20thC connected to it.
Gurneica et al were bombed without defence at low level. Also used were figures from the first war, which included, IIRC some "lucky" hits.
Herman Kahn explained how such numbers could be reached - the Germans (for example) conducted anti-aircraft artillery tests. Naturally the various groups sent their best crews, their best guns, their best shells etc. The test was conducted on a cloudless day.
As he put it, a crack team of athletes loaded the guns, maths geniuses set the sights, the shells fired had special, impossible to mass produce fuzes...
At the end of it Goering was presented with a report - any enemy planes would be shot down long before they reached anything vital.
Does Liz Truss have a union flag in her living room so she can sit in front of it for WFH videoconferences?
LOL I suppose if you have one, you need to keep it some where. I wonder if this was a Corbyn Cabinet Videoconferenc, would we see a few hammer and sickle, or maybe Cuban flags?
Well we know McDonnell proudly has his IRA plaque on the wall.
McDonnell would have a giant hammer and sickle flag hanging behind him and then swear blind that he didn't see it and had no idea who put it there.
36.5%, if I've calculated it correctly, is a new high in the +ve rate for the test. Bearing in mind a false negative rate of 25% has been quoted, it would suggest almost half of those tested have the virus.
Five days in a row with the positive test rate above 30%.
Italy's positive rate peaked in the low to mid 30s, and is now 17%.
I think Italy is now testing in the range of 20,000 to 25,000 a day.
Sky's Sarah Jane Mee talks to Terry Waite. Ex-hostage in Lebanon gives advice to keeping well during Coronavirus isolation.
I know Boris has been accused of being a right-wing authoritarian and the police have been overstepping the mark, but I am not sure our lockdown compares to being chained to a radiator for years on end.
{West Midlands Police enters the chat} Hmmmm.... interesting idea....
Sky's Sarah Jane Mee talks to Terry Waite. Ex-hostage in Lebanon gives advice to keeping well during Coronavirus isolation.
I know Boris has been accused of being a right-wing authoritarian and the police have been overstepping the mark, but I am not sure our lockdown compares to being chained to a radiator for years on end.
{West Midlands Police enters the chat} Hmmmm.... interesting idea....
I am ok with it, as long as I am allowed Easter Eggs...that's a deal breaker.
Does Liz Truss have a union flag in her living room so she can sit in front of it for WFH videoconferences?
LOL I suppose if you have one, you need to keep it some where. I wonder if this was a Corbyn Cabinet Videoconferenc, would we see a few hammer and sickle, or maybe Cuban flags?
Well we know McDonnell proudly has his IRA plaque on the wall.
McDonnell would have a giant hammer and sickle flag hanging behind him and then swear blind that he didn't see it and had no idea who put it there.
He'd also swear blind he had no idea about the symbolism it demonstrated....
Today's rise in confirmed cases is very encouraging indeed. The current increase is not exponential. This may top out below initial expectations.
The fact that cases are on the government's own admission under-reported by a factor of ten probably makes the headline numbers unusable for prediction. It's as much an indicator of the amount of testing as anything.
The government may have other data that does indicate a stable growth.
(As it happens, the author is a very good friend of my brother-in-law, and so I know him quite well).
There was a very strong belief in the mantra that 'the bomber will always get through', and a lot of planning was done on this basis. So they thought cities within range would be entirely defenceless. It was one reason why Chamberlain was so stubbornly set on appeasement. Of course it turned out quite differently; fighters were much faster than the bombers and the bombers didn't always get through, far from it. Daytime bombing was soon found to be impractically dangerous, and night-time bombing was difficult.
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
Does Liz Truss have a union flag in her living room so she can sit in front of it for WFH videoconferences?
Shock horror, some people might actually have a union flag in their house.
I don't know anyone with a union flag displayed in their home, we must move in different circles. My son does however have a monochrome union flag on the sunroof of his Mini Cooper S, if that counts.
The social distancing/cancellation of any sort of meetings has prevented 2 different sources of infection that I'd have definitely picked up otherwise. Of course I could still get it but it shows R0 should decrease if people stick to guidance.
Does Liz Truss have a union flag in her living room so she can sit in front of it for WFH videoconferences?
A friend of a friend who worked under Liz Truss at the DIT once told me that she once tried to reorganise a trade mission to the US to re-route through Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is apparently extremely famous for cheese manufacture, and Truss was at the time semi-famous for an excruciating speech about importing British cheese, which got played repeatedly on HIGNFY.
Apparently she thought the added expense to the British taxpayer was worth the personal photo opportunities. Her staff seem to have vehemently disagreed.
Based solely on this mildly amusing anecdote, Ms Truss is not above the sort of thinking outlined above re: Union flags.
The Metropolitan Police arrested more than 650 suspects in a week-long crackdown on violent crime - which was helped by many wanted criminals being forced to stay at home.
Given what we heard here this morning about the disastrous choir practice in America, isn't it more the fact that most are immune/little affected/able to weather it that is really helping?
I'm now pretty convinced that this is airborne as well as droplets, and was spreading around nicely via aircon when everyone was frantically elbow bumping and hand sanitising. Whether the Government knew this and it was benign neglect or not, I don't know, or care really. If that's the case social distancing would help, but not solve the problem, especially not in air-conditioned spaces.
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
For every expert, there exists an opposite and equal expert.
Given what we heard here this morning about the disastrous choir practice in America, isn't it more the fact that most are immune/little affected/able to weather it that is really helping?
I'm now pretty convinced that this is airborne as well as droplets, and was spreading around nicely via aircon when everyone was frantically elbow bumping and hand sanitising. Whether the Government knew this and it was benign neglect or not, I don't know, or care really. If that's the case social distancing would help, but not solve the problem, especially not in air-conditioned spaces.
Coronavirus does spread through the air and lingers in rooms long after patients have left, study finds
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
For every expert, there exists an opposite and equal expert.
If they're economists, they're both wrong.
At least these two are an MSc student and the lab tech...
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
It's a reasonable point and it highlights the need for some sort of signalling mechanism or central register of positive antibody tests. Letting people just buy them off Amazon is a total waste of time and will be counter-productive. The state needs to be involved in it intrinsically no doubt to the howls of outrage from the likes of Hitchens.
How to unlock society needs almost as much thought NOW as all the planning that is going into preparing for the surge. Feck that bit up and we are back to square one or worse as the lockdown might not work as well a second time.
The Metropolitan Police arrested more than 650 suspects in a week-long crackdown on violent crime - which was helped by many wanted criminals being forced to stay at home.
The Metropolitan Police arrested more than 650 suspects in a week-long crackdown on violent crime - which was helped by many wanted criminals being forced to stay at home.
How is stating the number of tests overstating the number of tests?
Youve not read it have you?
Gove claimed were already over 10,000 tests per day.
Measure it how you f**kin like he was lying or ignorant of the numbers.
The point is you said we werent able to distinguish between tests and tested we clearly are apparently
Was he not claiming capacity for that many tests per day, not actual? If so, we could well have the ability to test that many, but medical professionals are stewarding limited test resources sensibly and not just randomly testing to reach maximum number. That seems sensible.
How is stating the number of tests overstating the number of tests?
Youve not read it have you?
Gove claimed were already over 10,000 tests per day.
Measure it how you f**kin like he was lying or ignorant of the numbers.
The point is you said we werent able to distinguish between tests and tested we clearly are apparently
Sounds like he wasn't telling a porkie, just misspoke:
The 10,000 figure was an accurate reflection of current testing capacity, Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said. Capacity for testing stands at 10,949 a day, according to PHE, raising questions about why more tests are not being done.
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
FFS behavioural scientists can get lost.
WHO says test test test
The most successful nations in keeping death rates low are the ones with highest testing levels
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
It's a reasonable point and it highlights the need for some sort of signalling mechanism or central register of positive antibody tests. Letting people just buy them off Amazon is a total waste of time and will be counter-productive. The state needs to be involved in it intrinsically no doubt to the howls of outrage from the likes of Hitchens.
How to unlock society needs almost as much thought NOW as all the planning that is going into preparing for the surge. Feck that bit up and we are back to square one or worse as the lockdown might not work as well a second time.
They are considering using Amazon to distribute the tests - not sell them.
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
FFS behavioural scientists can get lost.
WHO says test test test
The most successful nations in keeping death rates low are the ones with highest testing levels
Well that isn't surprising since the number of tests will increase the denominator but hardly change the numerator.
He never quite puts a clear figure out, as a prediction, but he is clearly preparing his readers for 100,000s of dead Americans.
Something like a world war. If he is right.
Well even the white house have said 100-200k haven't they? Boasting that it won't be 2 million as predicted (quickly skipping over the bit about that being if you took no action at all).
He says the White House is looking at 400,000 dead - ‘and even that may be optimistic’
650,000 died in the American Civil War.
If we follow the American model it suggests 50-100,000 dead in the UK
IF IF IF IF IF
I don't think so. The American growth curve is like no others because of their botched response. In their favour is they have the best healthcare system in the world and enormous potential to ramp up construction of the necessary kit. However, they are playing catch-up and their healthcare system only actually operates for a certain sub-set of the population.
I hope and think you are right. This is when having a NATIONAL health service becomes a huge advantage, despite its flaws.
America is going to pay dearly for its idiotic health system. If this doesn’t make them reform it, then nothing will.
I disagree,
The botched US response at the start was the fault of the government, And while trump should take some of that, this is not yet another generic attack on Trump.
Tests for COVID where quickly developed and recommended by the WHO, int he US rater than adopted them the Center for Decises Control (CDC), Banned all tests except one they where making. The CDC test kits where then found to be faulty, and ones it was agreed in principle that privet test could be used there where unnecessary delays in authorizing there use.
Trumps tariffs of medical equipment, imposed last year, where never a good thing, but his big mistake was in not starting to react earlea, which was in large part because nobody know how bad iw was alrady in the USA.
But sisn then the response has been encouraging.
1) The private secrete, now it is allowed to has expanded testing dramatically, much more and much quicker than in the UK or almost anywhere else.
2) The federal stretcher of government has now allowed different areas to try things that are appropriate to there areas, e.g. NY does not have to do the same as Wyoming.
3) There is more capacity in the US System, more Doctors, Hospital beds Ventilators, ICU and so on.
I could go on but will stop now. The BBC and guardian hate America and hates all things Privet specter. If all you read is them you will not have a full picture. A lot of people will die in the US and more than would have if the response had been better at the start, but when this is all over I think the US will be looking OK or Good compared to a lot of places.
Sorry Dyslexia again, perhaps I should start putting a discernment at the bottom of all my posts.
Shouldn't be necessary on a knockabout site like this. Just ignore the tnucs.
I have considered writing posts in 'word' and then cut and pasting them, the spell check on that seems a lot better.
Can I ask who here has been anyed or confused by my spelling? ( as opposed to my opinions, LOL) would it be appreciated if I put more effort in or is a slightly quicker response more fun?
Typos are much less important than Thinkos - bash on!
Sky's Sarah Jane Mee talks to Terry Waite. Ex-hostage in Lebanon gives advice to keeping well during Coronavirus isolation.
I know Boris has been accused of being a right-wing authoritarian and the police have been overstepping the mark, but I am not sure our lockdown compares to being chained to a radiator for years on end.
{West Midlands Police enters the chat} Hmmmm.... interesting idea....
{Derbyshire Police} We're already doing it for dog walkers.....
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
FFS behavioural scientists can get lost.
WHO says test test test
The most successful nations in keeping death rates low are the ones with highest testing levels
As it happens, it is quite possible that by the time mass antibody test arrives then the need for the current lockdown will have faded a little anyway.
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
FFS behavioural scientists can get lost.
WHO says test test test
The most successful nations in keeping death rates low are the ones with highest testing levels
As it happens, it is quite possible that by the time mass antibody test arrives then the need for the current lockdown will have faded a little anyway.
That will be a far more valuable test to be able to do in the hundreds of thousands per day than the 'have you got it' test.
I'd say that the positive test numbers are currently a good proxy for hospital admissions, rather than the wider prevalence of Covid 19.
One implication of this is that it may be a suitable leading indicator of number of (hospital) deaths in say a week's time (depending on the average time until people pass away in hospital).
If they start testing all healthcare workers then the usefulness of this as a leading indicator disappears, but for the moment it suggests to me that we sadly have some way to go until peak mortality.
My 89 year old neighbour, bored, bless her is making me a loganberry jam Bakewell tart. She will put it on what we jokingly refer to as the Plague Bench by her front door.
Her Bakewell would win a podium finish at any cake contest. But with loganberry.... Wow!
Sky's Sarah Jane Mee talks to Terry Waite. Ex-hostage in Lebanon gives advice to keeping well during Coronavirus isolation.
I know Boris has been accused of being a right-wing authoritarian and the police have been overstepping the mark, but I am not sure our lockdown compares to being chained to a radiator for years on end.
{West Midlands Police enters the chat} Hmmmm.... interesting idea....
{Derbyshire Police} We're already doing it for dog walkers.....
Derbyshire police are already chaining dog walkers to radiators?
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000," he said.
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000," he said.
14 days ago - BJ Presumably mispoke or misled
Yes, I'm sure their actual plan is to decrease testing capacity...
PHE have already said it is up to 10,000, and I assume capacity is increasing still. Doesn't help when a huge number of testing kits you ordered were found to be tainted with the virus though...
(As it happens, the author is a very good friend of my brother-in-law, and so I know him quite well).
There was a very strong belief in the mantra that 'the bomber will always get through', and a lot of planning was done on this basis. So they thought cities within range would be entirely defenceless. It was one reason why Chamberlain was so stubbornly set on appeasement. Of course it turned out quite differently; fighters were much faster than the bombers and the bombers didn't always get through, far from it. Daytime bombing was soon found to be impractically dangerous, and night-time bombing was difficult.
I might have a read of that, I enjoy reading about that time period.
Will 'The bomber always get though' well yes and no.
It was defiantly the prevailing theory in most places both the UK and to some extent Germany in the late 1930s. and may explain why fighters where to some extent neglected, relative to bombers.
A lot of books I read tent to ridicule that thought, but looking at the numbers the bombers nearly always did get through. in the Battle of Britten, on a good day Fighter command could shot down 3% on average it was a bit below 2%. so largely the statement is correct. the problem for the bombers, was they were not as effective as expected and as popularly remembered and needed to fly a lot of missions, to achieve there aim, a 2% change of being shot down is manageable as a one off, a 2% change every mission ones or possibly twice a day for weeks or months is something else. for Command, on top of this was a damaged % normally close to or slightly over the shot down % so 5% a day was not unusual.
The problem with the 'boomer will always get though' is not that the stament is totally incorrect, but that it focuses on one mission not a campaign, and there for not a helpful planing focuses.
A bit like saying, 99.8% of healthy people will recover OK form COVID even if they need an ICU Bed, forgetting that this % may not hold when there are lots of people wanting to get in to ICU beds.
Can't win...not testing enough....you will be testing too much...
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
FFS behavioural scientists can get lost.
WHO says test test test
The most successful nations in keeping death rates low are the ones with highest testing levels
As it happens, it is quite possible that by the time mass antibody test arrives then the need for the current lockdown will have faded a little anyway.
It's going to be a big problem with managing the next lockdown, when people can see the financial and freedom advantages of having had the virus, or of claiming to have done so - assuming we will eventually need to lockdown again while we wait for a vaccine.
How is stating the number of tests overstating the number of tests?
Youve not read it have you?
Gove claimed were already over 10,000 tests per day.
Measure it how you f**kin like he was lying or ignorant of the numbers.
The point is you said we werent able to distinguish between tests and tested we clearly are apparently
Sounds like he wasn't telling a porkie, just misspoke:
The 10,000 figure was an accurate reflection of current testing capacity, Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said. Capacity for testing stands at 10,949 a day, according to PHE, raising questions about why more tests are not being done.
To think about our testing capacity imagine a McDonalds trying to make a Big Mac. You need the staff, the kitchen and the supplies. The staff is the easiest to get of the three as staff can be trained or used to work extra shifts quickly. The kitchen is difficult to build quickly but the government has found more machines both in universities and commercially plus it can run existing machines 24 hours a day. The last item is the supplies (the buns, beef patty etc). These are in very short supply as most are imported from Germany often and Germany is no longer exporting them. The three key items are swabs, viral transport media and reagents. All of them are hard to find. The final problem is management. There is a lack of coordination with top down dictates and too little problem solving at the front line and open communication.
Lombardy was the first region in Italy to suffer the COVID virus, and the first and fastest to show a decline in new cases. This is consistent with "herd immunity" developing in Lombardy, or with Lombardy having had the most severe social distancing restrictions in Italy for the longest period of time. It would be interesting if cases are still increasing in other parts of Italy.
Comments
134,946 -> 143,186
Our inability to get the proper levels of testing done is going to lead to thousands of additional deaths.
24th - 422
25th - 578
https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1245000879595536386
FFS doesn't always For F%%k's Sake!
Todays tweet says people so God knows
Friday 21st: 56 deaths
Saturday 22nd: 48 deaths
Sunday 23rd: 54 deaths
Monday 24th: 87 deaths
So, for example, if the threshold for hospitalising suspected cases has changed then you will test a smaller fraction of suspected cases and not measure an exponential increase.
There is an artical in the times today saying its linked to a chemical needed for the PCS machines that run the tests, but that has not stopped Germany or more lately the USA ramping up testing very quickly.
I understand that at the moment all the testing is being done in government labs, but I am shore that non government Labs would have been able to find 'work around' new supply s, or something much quicker, because they are normally more dynamic.
I relay say this but we should have been 'throwing money' at testing. I wonder if the apparent success of china in stopping the virus with there lock down, took attention away form SK and therefore lessons where not learnt properly.
I know Boris has been accused of being a right-wing authoritarian and the police have been overstepping the mark, but I am not sure our lockdown compares to being chained to a radiator for years on end.
I was naively assuming 1 new test = 1 new person tested 1=0.6 ish was what it showed.
My English teacher/alcoholic brother loves to whack me on my grammar, but the techniques are overrated. Readability is more important these days.
My own English teacher would ram home the use of 'fewer' over 'less' to us, but that rule is often flouted on this board.
There was one time that was alarming when I hit all the right keys, relative to one another, but my hand was one space to the left so what I wrote was nonsense. Had a brief moment worrying whether my brain had decided its services were no longer required.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244651132879806471
Possibly Saloon and Public bars will be back
Herman Kahn explained how such numbers could be reached - the Germans (for example) conducted anti-aircraft artillery tests. Naturally the various groups sent their best crews, their best guns, their best shells etc. The test was conducted on a cloudless day.
As he put it, a crack team of athletes loaded the guns, maths geniuses set the sights, the shells fired had special, impossible to mass produce fuzes...
At the end of it Goering was presented with a report - any enemy planes would be shot down long before they reached anything vital.
McDonnell would have a giant hammer and sickle flag hanging behind him and then swear blind that he didn't see it and had no idea who put it there.
You can't find what you aren't looking for.
Friday 9,114 test on 6,900 people
Saturday 8,278 test 4908 people
So 17,392 tests and 11,898 people 1=0.68
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/uk-ministers-accused-of-overstating-scale-of-coronavirus-testing
The government may have other data that does indicate a stable growth.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fighting-Churchill-Appeasing-Hitler-British/dp/1785904752
(As it happens, the author is a very good friend of my brother-in-law, and so I know him quite well).
There was a very strong belief in the mantra that 'the bomber will always get through', and a lot of planning was done on this basis. So they thought cities within range would be entirely defenceless. It was one reason why Chamberlain was so stubbornly set on appeasement. Of course it turned out quite differently; fighters were much faster than the bombers and the bombers didn't always get through, far from it. Daytime bombing was soon found to be impractically dangerous, and night-time bombing was difficult.
Two behavioural scientists have written to Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, to warn about the potential unintended consequences of mass public testing for coronavirus infection.
Prof Madelynne Arden at Sheffield Hallam University and Prof Christopher Armitage at the University of Manchester have told Whitty they felt compelled to share their concerns about the likely impact of mass testing on the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The scientists believe that people who have had the virus will return to normal life, since they will are likely to have some immunity, but warn this could encourage everyone else to follow suit. Another concern is that people who are fed up with isolation will be out and about and simply claim to have had the infection.
Of course I could still get it but it shows R0 should decrease if people stick to guidance.
Wisconsin is apparently extremely famous for cheese manufacture, and Truss was at the time semi-famous for an excruciating speech about importing British cheese, which got played repeatedly on HIGNFY.
Apparently she thought the added expense to the British taxpayer was worth the personal photo opportunities. Her staff seem to have vehemently disagreed.
Based solely on this mildly amusing anecdote, Ms Truss is not above the sort of thinking outlined above re: Union flags.
Gove claimed were already over 10,000 tests per day.
Measure it how you f**kin like he was lying or ignorant of the numbers.
The point is you said we werent able to distinguish between tests and tested we clearly are apparently
The Metropolitan Police arrested more than 650 suspects in a week-long crackdown on violent crime - which was helped by many wanted criminals being forced to stay at home.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8172285/Met-Police-arrest-650-suspects-week-long-crackdown.html
I'm now pretty convinced that this is airborne as well as droplets, and was spreading around nicely via aircon when everyone was frantically elbow bumping and hand sanitising. Whether the Government knew this and it was benign neglect or not, I don't know, or care really. If that's the case social distancing would help, but not solve the problem, especially not in air-conditioned spaces.
If they're economists, they're both wrong.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8171521/Coronavirus-does-spread-air-lingers-rooms-long-patients-left-study.html
How to unlock society needs almost as much thought NOW as all the planning that is going into preparing for the surge. Feck that bit up and we are back to square one or worse as the lockdown might not work as well a second time.
The 10,000 figure was an accurate reflection of current testing capacity, Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said. Capacity for testing stands at 10,949 a day, according to PHE, raising questions about why more tests are not being done.
WHO says test test test
The most successful nations in keeping death rates low are the ones with highest testing levels
One implication of this is that it may be a suitable leading indicator of number of (hospital) deaths in say a week's time (depending on the average time until people pass away in hospital).
If they start testing all healthcare workers then the usefulness of this as a leading indicator disappears, but for the moment it suggests to me that we sadly have some way to go until peak mortality.
Great stuff!!
The Government has just today moved back its 25,000 tests per day target to the end of April rather than mid April.
Its just not good enough.
Her Bakewell would win a podium finish at any cake contest. But with loganberry.... Wow!
14 days ago - BJ Presumably mispoke or misled
Sales of noise-cancelling headphones will be sharply down, though...
NEW THREAD
PHE have already said it is up to 10,000, and I assume capacity is increasing still. Doesn't help when a huge number of testing kits you ordered were found to be tainted with the virus though...
Will 'The bomber always get though' well yes and no.
It was defiantly the prevailing theory in most places both the UK and to some extent Germany in the late 1930s. and may explain why fighters where to some extent neglected, relative to bombers.
A lot of books I read tent to ridicule that thought, but looking at the numbers the bombers nearly always did get through. in the Battle of Britten, on a good day Fighter command could shot down 3% on average it was a bit below 2%. so largely the statement is correct. the problem for the bombers, was they were not as effective as expected and as popularly remembered and needed to fly a lot of missions, to achieve there aim, a 2% change of being shot down is manageable as a one off, a 2% change every mission ones or possibly twice a day for weeks or months is something else. for Command, on top of this was a damaged % normally close to or slightly over the shot down % so 5% a day was not unusual.
The problem with the 'boomer will always get though' is not that the stament is totally incorrect, but that it focuses on one mission not a campaign, and there for not a helpful planing focuses.
A bit like saying, 99.8% of healthy people will recover OK form COVID even if they need an ICU Bed, forgetting that this % may not hold when there are lots of people wanting to get in to ICU beds.
To think about our testing capacity imagine a McDonalds trying to make a Big Mac. You need the staff, the kitchen and the supplies. The staff is the easiest to get of the three as staff can be trained or used to work extra shifts quickly. The kitchen is difficult to build quickly but the government has found more machines both in universities and commercially plus it can run existing machines 24 hours a day. The last item is the supplies (the buns, beef patty etc). These are in very short supply as most are imported from Germany often and Germany is no longer exporting them. The three key items are swabs, viral transport media and reagents. All of them are hard to find. The final problem is management. There is a lack of coordination with top down dictates and too little problem solving at the front line and open communication.