I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections
What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
Hang on, why did no one mention free streams from the Met? How did you get it and are there any more?
They are available for 23 hours from 7.30pm New York time, i.e. 11.30pm our time, which means you can watch them here the next evening. As far as I can tell they don't cut you off if you are still watching at 10.30pm our time.
So, Siegfried tonight if you want!
Other opera houses are doing similar streams. Also see here, there's a free 30-day subscription available:
The Republicans have gone back to odds on favourite for November.
I can't decide what to do.
I'm on pause too. I retain most of my longstanding confidence that Trump will lose but not all of it. I fear a "War Leader" boost for him. Indeed we're seeing it. But this is only March.
I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.
If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.
As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?
I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
Your father was obviously an amazing man.
Shades of a younger (one day Admiral) Beatty - in the Sudan campaign he commanded a gunboat on the Nile. A cavalry officer had a shouted conversation with him, and he lobbed him a bottle of champagne.
The office was Winston Churchill, who as First Lord of the Admiralty, some time later, saved Beatty's career by giving him a post and a promotion. (he was being eased out of the navy).
I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections
What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
What a mixed up post! One minute you are talking about consoling yourself with the pleasure of “decent wines”. Yet, the very next, about over-acidic French plonk tarted up with bubbles to palm it off on those who know no better.
You obviously haven't tried, and certainly not appreciated, R de Ruinart. Mind you, some English sparkling wines are also excellent (albeit generally a little higher in acidity).
1. We start with 100x the testing capacity we had back in January / February. This means we can be much more proactive about getting to cases before they spread. In an ideal world, people who have any symptoms use an app or dial a phone number, and a tester is sent around within a couple of hours. Furthermore, those people who worked with that person can be tested before they spread the disease.
2. There will be a proportion of the population (between 1% and 15%) who will likely have immunity. These people - once identified - can continue their regular lives, and can act as frontline testers.
3. As you say, we can be smart at removing restrictions. And we can also be smart at reimposing them.
4. We will have many more ventilators next time around. And we will likely know drug and treatment regimes that lower the hospitalisation and death rate. (And it's possible that hydroxychloroquine + azythromicin is pretty good.)....
Possible; but also quite possible it's not. Though there are also Remdesivir and Actemra (and others), which look equally, if not more promising.
Otherwise, agreed. We'll have both more information and more capacity to deal with following peaks, and a better idea of how quickly we might need to lock down and for how long, should things start to get out of control.
There are some grounds for optimism if we can get through the next few weeks.
I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections
What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
Hang on, why did no one mention free streams from the Met? How did you get it and are there any more?
They are available for 23 hours from 7.30pm New York time, i.e. 11.30pm our time, which means you can watch them here the next evening. As far as I can tell they don't cut you off if you are still watching at 10.30pm our time.
So, Siegfried tonight if you want!
Other opera houses are doing similar streams. Also see here, there's a free 30-day subscription available:
I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.
If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.
As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?
I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
I hope he was promoted for his show of initiative ?
Never above Lance Bombardier...
Although many years later - when he was Deputy Lieutenant of Hampshire - he technically had the rank (and uniform/sword) of a Colonel. His regiment still made him sit with the ranks though...
On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.
Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?
The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.
To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.
Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.
Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.
It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
The medium-term aim won't be a return to track and trace though. Suppression measures will need to continue for a long time.
Yeah, but suppression measures will be a lot less than 18 months of total lockdown.
As I keep saying they will not be able to cope with all the Furlough payments, yet alone the self employed as well,. It will be months before any money is paid out
My preferred solution would have been to drop some helicopter money on everyone. Avoid all this admin with grant schemes and loan schemes and means testing forms and the rest.
Recover the cost on full from higher rate taxpayers by - for this year only - reducing the point at which you pay higher rate tax by a balancing amount. Push the enhanced higher rate tax back up to 50%.
Partially offset the cost of the helicopter money by reducing the personal tax allowance, for this year only. And by making the helicopter money taxable.
Those lucky enough to still be earning aren’t spending. Asking us to pay more tax, temporarily, to keep those not earning above water is entirely reasonable.
Coming along afterwards to try and balance the books will be a lot more difficult. The oldies will have forgotten by then all the sacrifices working age people made to keep them safe, including volunteering in huge numbers to do their shopping and deliver their medicines, and will go back to moaning about having to pay for their TV licence.
On fire there, Ian. High earners with income still flowing but fewer ways to spend it. What a compelling case - financial and moral - for a tax hike. If there isn't one they could end up better (!) off which would be unconscionable. You would probably have to exempt some people though, e.g. doctors and the like.
Nah. Why do doctors need more money, when they are going to get nationwide applause at 8 pm?
The only risk with going ahead with the EU allocation of ventilators is the cost of equipment. Which is trivial in the scheme of things. If the government finds they are surplus to requirements, it can sell them on. It's a no brainer.
The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.
Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..
Do you know?
My guess - and it is just a guess - that if you participate in the scheme then *all* equipment has to be purchased through it (and shared according to whatever the scheme sets out). This is sensible because it stops the various countries also going direct and competing for supply.
Given that Smiths Medical (one of the leading manufacturers of ventilators), Medlock Medical (ditto for PPE) and Regent Biogel (ditto for surgical gloves) are all based in the UK it may have been rational for the UK to decline.
I can quite imagine that the government doesn't want to stand up publicly and say "f*ck everyone else, we are hoarding stuff for our own population". The optics would not be good.
Do you have the list of countries participating? I don't think it is all of them.
I'd be particularly interested in Sweden (Molnlycke, Getinge) and Germany (Hartmann).
It would be reasonable in that case for the government to offer this explanation in response to the direct question. In fact their very weak justification is that "we're no longer members of the EU", which supports my explanation.
I get the impression that this is something of a Boris Bus project where the project becomes the objective, not the product itself. So that might be part of it.
If you are going to make an accusation of that serious a nature you need more evidence than "I get the impression"
It's a case of "wants to believe"
For information - the Boris Buses are still going strong. The bendy buses they replaced, which were sold to overseas, are all out of service.
Khan halted the purchases. The existing Boris Buses are running on a number of routes to this day.
The claim about them was that they were expensive - they were, because they used a hybrid power train to reduce emissions. Which needed to be reduced in London because of environmental legislation.
I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.
If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.
As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?
I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
Your father was obviously an amazing man.
Shades of a younger (one day Admiral) Beatty - in the Sudan campaign he commanded a gunboat on the Nile. A cavalry officer had a shouted conversation with him, and he lobbed him a bottle of champagne.
The office was Winston Churchill, who as First Lord of the Admiralty, some time later, saved Beatty's career by giving him a post and a promotion. (he was being eased out of the navy).
Cast your bread unto the waters....
That brings us back to wine bottles: Churchill is supposed to have drunk pint bottles of champagne as half a bottle was not enough, but a full bottle was a bit to much: at breakfast.
Interesting @felix intends to spend, spend, spend when this is all over. I was wondering earlier if the public would take the opportunity to go crazy with their freedom when we are allowed, or whether the quiet, frugal existence might make them appreciate the best things in life are free.
I hope for the latter, but am probably wrong
I'm not really a crazy spender! Since I became a pensioner 10 years ago - I have saved typically 10% of my income each year. Apart from new cars I'm generally a modest spender.
Current positives: 62.013 (net increase of 4.492) Deaths: 8.165 (+662) Healed: 10.361 (+999)
Total new cases: 6.153 (+8,3%)
Not great but all absorbed by the increase in Lombardy (could be a stochastic blip - next few days will tell more). Rest of Italy is similar to previous days, somewhat consistent with cases plateauing perhaps.
I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.
If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.
As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?
I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
Your father was obviously an amazing man.
Shades of a younger (one day Admiral) Beatty - in the Sudan campaign he commanded a gunboat on the Nile. A cavalry officer had a shouted conversation with him, and he lobbed him a bottle of champagne.
The office was Winston Churchill, who as First Lord of the Admiralty, some time later, saved Beatty's career by giving him a post and a promotion. (he was being eased out of the navy).
Cast your bread unto the waters....
That brings us back to wine bottles: Churchill is supposed to have drunk pint bottles of champagne as half a bottle was not enough, but a full bottle was a bit to much: at breakfast.
Pol Roger said they were bringing back the pint sized bottle in their Churchill cuvee - not sure if they went ahead...
Current positives: 62.013 (net increase of 4.492) Deaths: 8.165 (+662) Healed: 10.361 (+999)
Total new cases: 6.153 (+8,3%)
Not great but all absorbed by the increase in Lombardy (could be a stochastic blip - next few days will tell more). Rest of Italy is similar to previous days, somewhat consistent with cases plateauing perhaps.
Albeit better news on deaths, which do seem to have plateaued and should be a bit more stable than positives in the number of tests, which will depend on the number of tests as @rcs1000 points out.
On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.
Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?
The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.
To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.
Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.
Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.
It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
The medium-term aim won't be a return to track and trace though. Suppression measures will need to continue for a long time.
Yeah, but suppression measures will be a lot less than 18 months of total lockdown.
This is a crisis that we could see coming but failed to prepare for. New cases are bound to plateau or reduce before the end of the year. Once they have come down the lockdown will be eased. This is also an economic crisis and the government will reopen part of the economy at some stage. Then it will have to start to reduce the financial support that it is giving to people and businesses who have been affected. We really need a vaccine as soon as possible and I hope the government will support this as it cannot cost as much as the shutdown.
On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.
Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?
The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.
To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.
Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.
Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.
It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
The medium-term aim won't be a return to track and trace though. Suppression measures will need to continue for a long time.
Yeah, but suppression measures will be a lot less than 18 months of total lockdown.
This is a crisis that we could see coming but failed to prepare for. New cases are bound to plateau or reduce before the end of the year. Once they have come down the lockdown will be eased. This is also an economic crisis and the government will reopen part of the economy at some stage. Then it will have to start to reduce the financial support that it is giving to people and businesses who have been affected. We really need a vaccine as soon as possible and I hope the government will support this as it cannot cost as much as the shutdown.
In all probability, new cases will peak in the next three weeks.
On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.
Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?
The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.
To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.
Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.
Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.
It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
The medium-term aim won't be a return to track and trace though. Suppression measures will need to continue for a long time.
Yeah, but suppression measures will be a lot less than 18 months of total lockdown.
This is a crisis that we could see coming but failed to prepare for. New cases are bound to plateau or reduce before the end of the year. Once they have come down the lockdown will be eased. This is also an economic crisis and the government will reopen part of the economy at some stage. Then it will have to start to reduce the financial support that it is giving to people and businesses who have been affected. We really need a vaccine as soon as possible and I hope the government will support this as it cannot cost as much as the shutdown.
In all probability, new cases will peak in the next three weeks.
Absolutely! They should, with the social distancing, rise for two weeks, plateau and then decline. Social distancing is a very blunt tool but it should be very effective.
I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.
If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.
As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?
I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
I hope he was promoted for his show of initiative ?
Never above Lance Bombardier...
Although many years later - when he was Deputy Lieutenant of Hampshire - he technically had the rank (and uniform/sword) of a Colonel. His regiment still made him sit with the ranks though...
The bad numbers in Lombady led by bad numbers in Milan according to the regional cabinet member for welfare
I don't see how lockdowns work with these numbers
The numbers of new cases have been pretty consistent (around 5700 plus/minus 500) for the past few days. Without the lockdown these numbers would be shooting up massively as the epidemic would be unconstrained. We just need to see them start to decline - hopefully soon.
I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.
If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.
As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?
I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
I hope he was promoted for his show of initiative ?
Never above Lance Bombardier...
Although many years later - when he was Deputy Lieutenant of Hampshire - he technically had the rank (and uniform/sword) of a Colonel. His regiment still made him sit with the ranks though...
How very narrow-minded of them.
Nah - it was the HAC. As with virtually everything they do it was to take the mick.
As I keep saying they will not be able to cope with all the Furlough payments, yet alone the self employed as well,. It will be months before any money is paid out
If the virus is significantly under control and the economy is looking a lot healthier by the end of May, I wonder if these payments will actually be made....
I guess a lot of self employed now have regrets, that they stated that they only earned 12 k.So they did not pay tax, when in reality they were earning a lot more.
One thing that will be interesting, after all this is over, will be to see how the cases and deaths from other infectious diseases are reduced by the lockdown and even by people just paying a bit more attention to basic hand washing etc (I guess we're late in the flu season now, but that, for example, you'd expect to be down).
On the other hand, well done Sainsbury's and the staff member she spoke to.
Yes, well done Sainsbury's
Well done all supermarket staff for sticking to their jobs which are not without hazard.
And petrol station cashiers and refuse guys and delivery people and warehouse folk and bus drivers. Never was so much owed by so many etc.
Quite. There are lots of us still going to work (as we should if it's not possible to work from home, and we can maintain physical distancing), but there are those who have to keep going to work despite not being entirely secure, because the rest of us depend on them.
The platforms and rigs are still operating in the North Sea and it is utterly impossible to maintain any sort of social distancing on those things.
That means that the proportion of positive tests actually declined yesterday to 17%.
The proportion of positive tests has been on a steady downward path in Italy. It suggests that the Italians were almost certainly undercounting CV-19 cases in the recent past.
As I keep saying they will not be able to cope with all the Furlough payments, yet alone the self employed as well,. It will be months before any money is paid out
If the virus is significantly under control and the economy is looking a lot healthier by the end of May, I wonder if these payments will actually be made....
Ask anyone trying to claim Universal Credit now, they have no chance.
Who are these people who are going to administer Furlough payments, it simply wont happen
Four more weeks to file a tax return seems overly generous when any such person is already almost two months late.
If people are at home with nothing to do then surely no excuse for not doing it immediately. I would have thought 7 days was quite long enough, certainly 14 days would be.
That means that the proportion of positive tests actually declined yesterday to 17%.
The proportion of positive tests has been on a steady downward path in Italy. It suggests that the Italians were almost certainly undercounting CV-19 cases in the recent past.
If these people have been locked away for 17 days who are they catching Covid-19 from?
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
I'm looking forward to the paid holidays, sick days, paternity leave, pension, compassionate leave, and redundancy payments I'll be receiving now that self-employment is apparently deemed to be worthy of equal treatment to employment.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
Contrarily, my alcohol consumption has declined since I entered the Covid-19 twilight world. My other half has decided we need to lose weight so the wine has been sparingly opened.
Very wise but I, alas, cannot say the same. I am getting through an awful lot of "Waitrose Italian Red" (£4.95) every evening. "Rich and intense" it says on the label, and it is. It's rich and intense.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
That means that the proportion of positive tests actually declined yesterday to 17%.
The proportion of positive tests has been on a steady downward path in Italy. It suggests that the Italians were almost certainly undercounting CV-19 cases in the recent past.
If these people have been locked away for 17 days who are they catching Covid-19 from?
They are not catching Covid-19 - they most likely had it beforehand but it can be 14-21 days before you display serious enough symptoms that would justify going to hospital for treatment. Hence, after the 3 weeks new cases would be those transmitted within households. It's why we should expect a bit of a plateau for a few days before the decline really kicks in. And @rcs1000 that's good news re the number of tests - much more like the trend we want to see!!
I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.
If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.
As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.
Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.
When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
All those half bottles suggests a customer base of lonely rich people ?
Or a wife that doesn't drink. Half bottles aid my will power.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
I'm looking forward to the paid holidays, sick days, paternity leave, pension, compassionate leave, and redundancy payments I'll be receiving now that self-employment is apparently deemed to be worthy of equal treatment to employment.
You can pay yourself for all of those now - you are choosing not to - perhaps you should be on a list with Mike Ashley and Mr Wetherspoon.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
They were acting perfectly legally and responding exactly to the strong incentives put in place by successive governments. Blame the governments for the wonky tax system, not them for being tilted by it.
You're right. I was looking at the moving average in my spreadsheet, rather than the daily number.
It's actually the lowest number of new cases for more than a week.
Eh? New cases by day for the last week, Bear in mind the low number from Monday was (effectively) Sunday's results and based on few tests.
5,986 6,557 5,560 3780 5249 5210 6153
Sorry - I was looking at the rise in the number described as "current positives", and assuming it meant cumulative positive tests. I've never seen that phrase used before. I assume it meant active cases.
That means that the proportion of positive tests actually declined yesterday to 17%.
The proportion of positive tests has been on a steady downward path in Italy. It suggests that the Italians were almost certainly undercounting CV-19 cases in the recent past.
If these people have been locked away for 17 days who are they catching Covid-19 from?
They are not catching Covid-19 - they most likely had it beforehand but it can be 14-21 days before you display serious enough symptoms that would justify going to hospital for treatment. Hence, after the 3 weeks new cases would be those transmitted within households. It's why we should expect a bit of a plateau for a few days before the decline really kicks in. And @rcs1000 that's good news re the number of tests - much more like the trend we want to see!!
Also a lockdown will not eliminate transmission by 100%. There are still people moving around for essential jobs, and not everyone will maintain all the right protocols all the time. While there are a lot of infectious people, and a lot of people without immunity, it will inevitably spread.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
They were acting perfectly legally and responding exactly to the strong incentives put in place by successive governments. Blame the governments for the wonky tax system, not them for being tilted by it.
I realise I have been going on too much about ventilators and the EU, but this is a new twist. Presumably the "communication problem" in question was something along the lines of "fuck off, EU."
That means that the proportion of positive tests actually declined yesterday to 17%.
The proportion of positive tests has been on a steady downward path in Italy. It suggests that the Italians were almost certainly undercounting CV-19 cases in the recent past.
If these people have been locked away for 17 days who are they catching Covid-19 from?
They are not catching Covid-19 - they most likely had it beforehand but it can be 14-21 days before you display serious enough symptoms that would justify going to hospital for treatment. Hence, after the 3 weeks new cases would be those transmitted within households. It's why we should expect a bit of a plateau for a few days before the decline really kicks in. And @rcs1000 that's good news re the number of tests - much more like the trend we want to see!!
You have to look at what the shutdown actually consisted of, I don’t think Italy shut down bars at the start having people sit 2 meters apart. So the real shut down maybe a few days later.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
They were acting perfectly legally and responding exactly to the strong incentives put in place by successive governments. Blame the governments for the wonky tax system, not them for being tilted by it.
Did he say they were acting illegally? I don't see that not feeling a huge burst of sympathy is that objectionable.
I realise I have been going on too much about ventilators and the EU, but this is a new twist. Presumably the "communication problem" in question was something along the lines of "fuck off, EU."
Well I've been to retrieve the bin. Three people walking in the lane - a pair and a single heading in opposite directions. But the highlight was a passing car, driven by a woman in a surgical mask.
Wor Lass is mowing the lawn. I'm about to do the same to my facial hair.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
Four more weeks to file a tax return seems overly generous when any such person is already almost two months late.
If people are at home with nothing to do then surely no excuse for not doing it immediately. I would have thought 7 days was quite long enough, certainly 14 days would be.
Is there a legitimate reason why they wouldn't have filled in a tax return by now?
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
They were acting perfectly legally and responding exactly to the strong incentives put in place by successive governments. Blame the governments for the wonky tax system, not them for being tilted by it.
On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.
Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?
The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.
To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.
Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.
Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.
It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
The medium-term aim won't be a return to track and trace though. Suppression measures will need to continue for a long time.
Yeah, but suppression measures will be a lot less than 18 months of total lockdown.
This is a crisis that we could see coming but failed to prepare for. New cases are bound to plateau or reduce before the end of the year. Once they have come down the lockdown will be eased. This is also an economic crisis and the government will reopen part of the economy at some stage. Then it will have to start to reduce the financial support that it is giving to people and businesses who have been affected. We really need a vaccine as soon as possible and I hope the government will support this as it cannot cost as much as the shutdown.
In all probability, new cases will peak in the next three weeks.
New cases might peak but they could then plateau and not reduce to a low level so the economy will have to remain locked down. I doubt that is sustainable for more than two years at the most. The problem we have is that an effective vaccine may not be available soon enough.
One possibility is that a vaccine is made that halves the sickness caused by the virus but this would still be unacceptable to many people. Even than might not be achievable. I think we need to consider the possibility that there will be no way to suppress this virus long term. It will be interesting to see what happens in countries such as Iran, Sweden, the Netherlands and the US where a full lockdown may never be implemented. This could give us a better idea of what we are dealing with.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I never said the state gave you paid holidays. Your employer (which may or may not be the state) does. Nobody's going to do that for the self-employed, and nor should they. It's one of the various pros and cons that make working for oneself different to employment.
The absence of paid holidays, sick days, compassionate leave, parental leave, and a company pension, I would argue, justify a lower rate of NI.
If there's going to be a general argument about the need, with the debt hangover, of altering spending, taxation, and borrowing, then that may need to change as part of a wider approach. A piecemeal approach to such changes is, I would contend, unwise.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
They were acting perfectly legally and responding exactly to the strong incentives put in place by successive governments. Blame the governments for the wonky tax system, not them for being tilted by it.
Did he say they were acting illegally? I don't see that not feeling a huge burst of sympathy is that objectionable.
No more objectionable than not feeling a huge burst of sympathy for the self-employed or low-paid employees, certainly.
I don't think there's anything in the Chancellor's announcement for people who have their own one-person company and pay themselves mainly by dividends, is there? Normally they'll be paying themselves only the minimum to build up NI contribution years (£5.8K, IIRC).
They were acting perfectly legally and responding exactly to the strong incentives put in place by successive governments. Blame the governments for the wonky tax system, not them for being tilted by it.
On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.
Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?
The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.
To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.
Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.
Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.
It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
The medium-term aim won't be a return to track and trace though. Suppression measures will need to continue for a long time.
Yeah, but suppression measures will be a lot less than 18 months of total lockdown.
This is a crisis that we could see coming but failed to prepare for. New cases are bound to plateau or reduce before the end of the year. Once they have come down the lockdown will be eased. This is also an economic crisis and the government will reopen part of the economy at some stage. Then it will have to start to reduce the financial support that it is giving to people and businesses who have been affected. We really need a vaccine as soon as possible and I hope the government will support this as it cannot cost as much as the shutdown.
In all probability, new cases will peak in the next three weeks.
New cases might peak but they could then plateau and not reduce to a low level so the economy will have to remain locked down. I doubt that is sustainable for more than two years at the most. The problem we have is that an effective vaccine may not be available soon enough.
One possibility is that a vaccine is made that halves the sickness caused by the virus but this would still be unacceptable to many people. Even than might not be achievable. I think we need to consider the possibility that there will be no way to suppress this virus long term. It will be interesting to see what happens in countries such as Iran, Sweden, the Netherlands and the US where a full lockdown may never be implemented. This could give us a better idea of what we are dealing with.
Lockdown isn’t lasting 2 months never mind 2 years.
Comments
https://www.metopera.org/user-information/nightly-met-opera-streams/
They are available for 23 hours from 7.30pm New York time, i.e. 11.30pm our time, which means you can watch them here the next evening. As far as I can tell they don't cut you off if you are still watching at 10.30pm our time.
So, Siegfried tonight if you want!
Other opera houses are doing similar streams. Also see here, there's a free 30-day subscription available:
https://www.marquee.tv/
The office was Winston Churchill, who as First Lord of the Admiralty, some time later, saved Beatty's career by giving him a post and a promotion. (he was being eased out of the navy).
Cast your bread unto the waters....
In June. FFS...
Although many years later - when he was Deputy Lieutenant of Hampshire - he technically had the rank (and uniform/sword) of a Colonel. His regiment still made him sit with the ranks though...
Current positives: 62.013 (net increase of 4.492)
Deaths: 8.165 (+662)
Healed: 10.361 (+999)
Total new cases: 6.153 (+8,3%)
If you didnt file a tax return in January do it now and it will count
£50k profit
The claim about them was that they were expensive - they were, because they used a hybrid power train to reduce emissions. Which needed to be reduced in London because of environmental legislation.
That is an all time high number of new cases.
https://twitter.com/nickgoff79/status/1242748008808230912?s=21
Feb 21st: 18 cases in Bergamo
March 26th: Armageddon in Italy and Spain
Football has a lot to answer for. I don't think we've seen the consquences of the Liverpool v Atletico game yet.
Some good news out of the Italian numbers.
Yesterday the Italians did 36,615 CV-19 tests.
That means that the proportion of positive tests actually declined yesterday to 17%.
The proportion of positive tests has been on a steady downward path in Italy. It suggests that the Italians were almost certainly undercounting CV-19 cases in the recent past.
5,986
6,557
5,560
3780
5249
5210
6153
Who are these people who are going to administer Furlough payments, it simply wont happen
If people are at home with nothing to do then surely no excuse for not doing it immediately. I would have thought 7 days was quite long enough, certainly 14 days would be.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Edit: Yes, I seem to be right:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1243229165517778945
I get paid for doing work. If I don't do work, I don't get paid.
The self-employed don't get paid holidays the way the employed do.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1243221637035671553
Wor Lass is mowing the lawn. I'm about to do the same to my facial hair.
One possibility is that a vaccine is made that halves the sickness caused by the virus but this would still be unacceptable to many people. Even than might not be achievable. I think we need to consider the possibility that there will be no way to suppress this virus long term. It will be interesting to see what happens in countries such as Iran, Sweden, the Netherlands and the US where a full lockdown may never be implemented. This could give us a better idea of what we are dealing with.
The absence of paid holidays, sick days, compassionate leave, parental leave, and a company pension, I would argue, justify a lower rate of NI.
If there's going to be a general argument about the need, with the debt hangover, of altering spending, taxation, and borrowing, then that may need to change as part of a wider approach. A piecemeal approach to such changes is, I would contend, unwise.