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  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    There's been a slight drop in both the number of cases and deaths in Spain today.

    I think/hope we are near the peak. Certainly the spanish government is praying so as the coalition is fraying and the opposition parties somewhat less compliant. Also the Autonomous Communities are somewhat fretful.
    I returned home from a week in Barcelona with my mum just five months ago today. I'm glad we went when we did. Around Christmas, we were sort of semi-planning another trip to Spain or to Portugal round about now. Even more glad we didn't book!
    We normally have an early summer cruise. That's about €6000 saved already which helps offsets all investment falls so far. Stuck at home at, for me, a prime shooping time for summer clothes , etc is saving another fortune. Mind you when they let us out I'll be like Viv Nicholson on steroids!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    There's been a slight drop in both the number of cases and deaths in Spain today.

    I think/hope we are near the peak. Certainly the spanish government is praying so as the coalition is fraying and the opposition parties somewhat less compliant. Also the Autonomous Communities are somewhat fretful.
    I returned home from a week in Barcelona with my mum just five months ago today. I'm glad we went when we did. Around Christmas, we were sort of semi-planning another trip to Spain or to Portugal round about now. Even more glad we didn't book!
    We normally have an early summer cruise. That's about €6000 saved already which helps offsets all investment falls so far. Stuck at home at, for me, a prime shooping time for summer clothes , etc is saving another fortune. Mind you when they let us out I'll be like Viv Nicholson on steroids!
    Which is why we should tax you now, not later.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Lol - not sure that'll make too much immediate difference to most folk's plans.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    felix said:

    Lol - not sure that'll make too much immediate difference to most folk's plans.
    I wonder if it doesn’t have more to do with controlling the flow of information.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    IanB2 said:

    egg said:

    “whatever it takes” part two.

    For the record, who actually thinks whatever it takes part one is doable, delivered as promised?

    (I am expecting the lefties on here to simply reply yes, and those economically right of centre and government supporters to remain largely silent)

    My view from the beginning is that the missing element is a temporary supertax.
    Pay Super tax £100
    There is no Monopoly on that joke - Go to Jail and do not collect £200.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections :smile:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "A former Government chief scientist has said that coronavirus patients over the age of 90 should consider not going into hospital to avoid being a 'burden' on the health service.

    Professor Sir David King suggested that patients could choose to stay at home rather than risk dying in hospital to help the NHS cope.

    'I certainly would advise anyone in the region of 90, 95 years old who is susceptible for whatever reason, not to go into hospital for two reasons,' Sir David said, according to BBC Radio 4.

    'One is, you go into hospital at that age with problems and you may never come out, but of course the second reason is you are overburdening the NHS.'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154673/Governments-ex-chief-scientist-Sir-David-King-blasted-telling-frail-stay-home.html
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    The same China who moaned when other countries did the same to them?
    Its a no brainer tbf
    It is - but they are being hypocrites
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Not promising figures from Lombardy today by the sound of it. Hopefully just a one off blip and Italy keeps declining over the next few days...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Chateau Lagrange 2015 (in bottles)

    Fortnum's = £57.95
    Farr's = £38.70

    A bog standard cru bourgeois in halves from Fortnum's = £17.95. JESUS F*****G CHRIST. They even insult you by not telling you the vintage because you're too dim/rich to care (not you, obvs).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    egg said:

    “whatever it takes” part two.

    For the record, who actually thinks whatever it takes part one is doable, delivered as promised?

    (I am expecting the lefties on here to simply reply yes, and those economically right of centre and government supporters to remain largely silent)

    My view from the beginning is that the missing element is a temporary supertax.
    What the fuck for?
    Ultimately the COVID19 costs will need to be paid for. People who maintained very high incomes throughout are good candidates for a larger contribution.
    Absolutely right.

    The problem the economy has isn’t the lack of spending power, it’s the preventing money from circulating.

    Anyone with a secure income has saved during the lockdown from not spending on meals out, pub visits, personal services, travel, and the rest.

    Meanwhile the people employed in said industries have suffered a collapse in income.

    If we do nothing, tons of people and businesses providing these services go to the wall.

    If the state provides their income, we end up with an inflationary spike and a burden upon the state that will take a generation to clear.

    The right answer is to levy a supertax to extract the unspent surplus from those relatively unaffected and to redirect the proceeds to those not receiving.
    The would be an enormously inefficient and slow means of trying to achieve what you think it would.
    Look how long the government is taking just to hand out cash...
    End of the tax year will be fine.

    The alternative is that the state drops helicopter money on those losing their income because other people are not spending, while the saving from their not spending still sits with them whose incomes are stable. When the music stops, that will mean a good burst of inflation.
    Surely it should be a one-off increase to the digital tax? Amazon, Netflix, Facebook etc. - that's where all the money is going at the moment isn't it? It would obviously be clawed back from the consumer in the form of higher prices in the end, but it's still very defensible politically.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Floater said:

    Spain update - may go higher later

    Spain 56,197 +6,682 4,145 +498

    That's it since this morning. No further update normally till tomorrow now.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2020

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is the latest world data. It appears the latest UK figures for deaths have not been added for some reason.


    My pet peeve.

    If you are going to have two charts with the same categories (in this case countries) side by side then use the same f*cking colours!
    And I'm pretty sure the UK deaths haven't plateaued.....
    Data query: what site are people pulling their death numbers from?

    A popular choice would be John Hopkins CSSE who are helpfully tracking deaths and confirmed by cases by country and region and sticking it up on GitHub. Here's their deaths page for example.

    Problem is, their UK numbers don't seem to match the UK's official figures, whereas Wikipedia's figures seem to be getting it right.

    This is a bit frustrating as it is dead easy to pull the CSSE figures from the raw CSV but then you get UK cumulative death progression as 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 21, 21, 55, 55, 71, 137, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465 (you can see this looks wonky because some of the cumulative totals are repeating from one day to the next, as if nobody had died that day, when the figure hasn't been updated) rather than the (correct?) figures that Wiki has which are 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 8, 10, 21, 35, 55, 71, 103, 144, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465.

    I don't mind hardcoding and typing out a few numbers but it's nicer if you can just write a line of code that goes to an online data source and extracts it all for you, especially if you want to do international comparisons. It's generally a bit fiddlier scraping data from Wikipedia. So where is everyone else going?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    egg said:

    “whatever it takes” part two.

    For the record, who actually thinks whatever it takes part one is doable, delivered as promised?

    (I am expecting the lefties on here to simply reply yes, and those economically right of centre and government supporters to remain largely silent)

    My view from the beginning is that the missing element is a temporary supertax.
    Pay Super tax £100
    There is no Monopoly on that joke - Go to Jail and do not collect £200.
    On a brighter note I just won a beauty contest wouldnt take the cash though insisted on a bank transfer
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    There's been a slight drop in both the number of cases and deaths in Spain today.

    I think/hope we are near the peak. Certainly the spanish government is praying so as the coalition is fraying and the opposition parties somewhat less compliant. Also the Autonomous Communities are somewhat fretful.
    I returned home from a week in Barcelona with my mum just five months ago today. I'm glad we went when we did. Around Christmas, we were sort of semi-planning another trip to Spain or to Portugal round about now. Even more glad we didn't book!
    We normally have an early summer cruise. That's about €6000 saved already which helps offsets all investment falls so far. Stuck at home at, for me, a prime shooping time for summer clothes , etc is saving another fortune. Mind you when they let us out I'll be like Viv Nicholson on steroids!
    Which is why we should tax you now, not later.
    Lol - buzzkiller!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Hmm. Pound up to US$1.21.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:



    The only risk with going ahead with the EU allocation of ventilators is the cost of equipment. Which is trivial in the scheme of things. If the government finds they are surplus to requirements, it can sell them on. It's a no brainer.

    The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.

    Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..

    Do you know?

    My guess - and it is just a guess - that if you participate in the scheme then *all* equipment has to be purchased through it (and shared according to whatever the scheme sets out). This is sensible because it stops the various countries also going direct and competing for supply.

    Given that Smiths Medical (one of the leading manufacturers of ventilators), Medlock Medical (ditto for PPE) and Regent Biogel (ditto for surgical gloves) are all based in the UK it may have been rational for the UK to decline.

    I can quite imagine that the government doesn't want to stand up publicly and say "f*ck everyone else, we are hoarding stuff for our own population". The optics would not be good.

    Do you have the list of countries participating? I don't think it is all of them.

    I'd be particularly interested in Sweden (Molnlycke, Getinge) and Germany (Hartmann).
    It would be reasonable in that case for the government to offer this explanation in response to the direct question. In fact their very weak justification is that "we're no longer members of the EU", which supports my explanation.

    I get the impression that this is something of a Boris Bus project where the project becomes the objective, not the product itself. So that might be part of it.
    If you are going to make an accusation of that serious a nature you need more evidence than "I get the impression"
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    felix said:

    Floater said:

    Spain update - may go higher later

    Spain 56,197 +6,682 4,145 +498

    That's it since this morning. No further update normally till tomorrow now.
    Thanks Felix
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    The same China who moaned when other countries did the same to them?
    Its a no brainer tbf
    It is - but they are being hypocrites
    I hope the UK shuts the borders with America for some time when we are through this months before them.

    Could we build a wall and get them to pay for it?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Andy_JS said:

    "A former Government chief scientist has said that coronavirus patients over the age of 90 should consider not going into hospital to avoid being a 'burden' on the health service.

    Professor Sir David King suggested that patients could choose to stay at home rather than risk dying in hospital to help the NHS cope.

    'I certainly would advise anyone in the region of 90, 95 years old who is susceptible for whatever reason, not to go into hospital for two reasons,' Sir David said, according to BBC Radio 4.

    'One is, you go into hospital at that age with problems and you may never come out, but of course the second reason is you are overburdening the NHS.'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8154673/Governments-ex-chief-scientist-Sir-David-King-blasted-telling-frail-stay-home.html

    Yes - I get what he is saying but you end up applying the same principle to very fat 50 year olds or cancer patients of any age. All a bit 'brave new world' I'm afraid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Opposite my house, an elderly chap is helping clean the car of the young family who lives next-door. Yesterday he mowed my front lawn randomly. I don’t think he gets it.

    Sounds as though he almost certainly will get it, actually.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    The same China who moaned when other countries did the same to them?
    Its a no brainer tbf
    It is - but they are being hypocrites
    I hope the UK shuts the borders with America for some time when we are through this months before them.

    Could we build a wall and get them to pay for it?
    We should do that just for grins
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    Now the wine industry uses screw tops, not corks, what's the point?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:



    The only risk with going ahead with the EU allocation of ventilators is the cost of equipment. Which is trivial in the scheme of things. If the government finds they are surplus to requirements, it can sell them on. It's a no brainer.

    The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.

    Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..

    Do you know?

    My guess - and it is just a guess - that if you participate in the scheme then *all* equipment has to be purchased through it (and shared according to whatever the scheme sets out). This is sensible because it stops the various countries also going direct and competing for supply.

    Given that Smiths Medical (one of the leading manufacturers of ventilators), Medlock Medical (ditto for PPE) and Regent Biogel (ditto for surgical gloves) are all based in the UK it may have been rational for the UK to decline.

    I can quite imagine that the government doesn't want to stand up publicly and say "f*ck everyone else, we are hoarding stuff for our own population". The optics would not be good.

    Do you have the list of countries participating? I don't think it is all of them.

    I'd be particularly interested in Sweden (Molnlycke, Getinge) and Germany (Hartmann).
    It would be reasonable in that case for the government to offer this explanation in response to the direct question. In fact their very weak justification is that "we're no longer members of the EU", which supports my explanation.

    I get the impression that this is something of a Boris Bus project where the project becomes the objective, not the product itself. So that might be part of it.
    If you are going to make an accusation of that serious a nature you need more evidence than "I get the impression"
    BDS and haters gonna hate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    rcs1000 said:

    As I'm sure you're all aware, @eadric has been feeling unwell for a couple of days, and went to the doctor to get checked.

    His test results are through, and he was so relieved he sent a picture of them straight to me:

    image

    Don’t be silly. That can’t be Eadric. It doesn’t mention alcohol.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Hmm. Pound up to US$1.21.

    The way the US is going, the idea of the US$ as the world's reserve currency may be tested to destruction.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is the latest world data. It appears the latest UK figures for deaths have not been added for some reason.


    My pet peeve.

    If you are going to have two charts with the same categories (in this case countries) side by side then use the same f*cking colours!
    And I'm pretty sure the UK deaths haven't plateaued.....
    Data query: what site are people pulling their death numbers from?

    A popular choice would be John Hopkins CSSE who are helpfully tracking deaths and confirmed by cases by country and region and sticking it up on GitHub. Here's their deaths page for example.

    Problem is, their UK numbers don't seem to match the UK's official figures, whereas Wikipedia's figures seem to be getting it right.

    This is a bit frustrating as it is dead easy to pull the CSSE figures from the raw CSV but then you get UK cumulative death progression as 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 21, 21, 55, 55, 71, 137, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465 (you can see this looks wonky because some of the cumulative totals are repeating from one day to the next, as if nobody had died that day, when the figure hasn't been updated) rather than the (correct?) figures that Wiki has which are 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 8, 10, 21, 35, 55, 71, 103, 144, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465.

    I don't mind hardcoding and typing out a few numbers but it's nicer if you can just write a line of code that goes to an online data source and extracts it all for you, especially if you want to do international comparisons. It's generally a bit fiddlier scraping data from Wikipedia. So where is everyone else going?
    i get mine here

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Or here at a pinch although these guys are a bit slow now


    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    rcs1000 said:

    As I'm sure you're all aware, @eadric has been feeling unwell for a couple of days, and went to the doctor to get checked.

    His test results are through, and he was so relieved he sent a picture of them straight to me:

    image

    Well done @eadric. Keep it like that.

    Not so sure about the others, though!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:



    The only risk with going ahead with the EU allocation of ventilators is the cost of equipment. Which is trivial in the scheme of things. If the government finds they are surplus to requirements, it can sell them on. It's a no brainer.

    The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.

    Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..

    Do you know?

    My guess - and it is just a guess - that if you participate in the scheme then *all* equipment has to be purchased through it (and shared according to whatever the scheme sets out). This is sensible because it stops the various countries also going direct and competing for supply.

    Given that Smiths Medical (one of the leading manufacturers of ventilators), Medlock Medical (ditto for PPE) and Regent Biogel (ditto for surgical gloves) are all based in the UK it may have been rational for the UK to decline.

    I can quite imagine that the government doesn't want to stand up publicly and say "f*ck everyone else, we are hoarding stuff for our own population". The optics would not be good.

    Do you have the list of countries participating? I don't think it is all of them.

    I'd be particularly interested in Sweden (Molnlycke, Getinge) and Germany (Hartmann).
    It would be reasonable in that case for the government to offer this explanation in response to the direct question. In fact their very weak justification is that "we're no longer members of the EU", which supports my explanation.

    I get the impression that this is something of a Boris Bus project where the project becomes the objective, not the product itself. So that might be part of it.
    If you are going to make an accusation of that serious a nature you need more evidence than "I get the impression"
    It's a case of "wants to believe"

    For information - the Boris Buses are still going strong. The bendy buses they replaced, which were sold to overseas, are all out of service.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    egg said:

    “whatever it takes” part two.

    For the record, who actually thinks whatever it takes part one is doable, delivered as promised?

    (I am expecting the lefties on here to simply reply yes, and those economically right of centre and government supporters to remain largely silent)

    My view from the beginning is that the missing element is a temporary supertax.
    Pay Super tax £100
    There is no Monopoly on that joke - Go to Jail and do not collect £200.
    We had super-tax when Heath and Wilson ran the country. Ah, progressive taxation ... in 2020, what a novel idea that'd be.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. Pound up to US$1.21.

    The way the US is going, the idea of the US$ as the world's reserve currency may be tested to destruction.
    Ahem - the £ has had a very bumpy ride for a couple of weeks now against both the $ and the €. This is just a small bounce back.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    There's been a slight drop in both the number of cases and deaths in Spain today.

    I think/hope we are near the peak. Certainly the spanish government is praying so as the coalition is fraying and the opposition parties somewhat less compliant. Also the Autonomous Communities are somewhat fretful.
    I returned home from a week in Barcelona with my mum just five months ago today. I'm glad we went when we did. Around Christmas, we were sort of semi-planning another trip to Spain or to Portugal round about now. Even more glad we didn't book!
    We normally have an early summer cruise. That's about €6000 saved already which helps offsets all investment falls so far. Stuck at home at, for me, a prime shooping time for summer clothes , etc is saving another fortune. Mind you when they let us out I'll be like Viv Nicholson on steroids!
    Which is why we should tax you now, not later.
    I'm not sure Spain would be too keen on that...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Cuomo tells New York - there is almost no scenario no matter how much we flatten our curve where we realistically avoid the Health System being overwhelmed........

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    Now the wine industry uses screw tops, not corks, what's the point?
    What about champagne or other sparklers
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374

    rcs1000 said:

    As I'm sure you're all aware, @eadric has been feeling unwell for a couple of days, and went to the doctor to get checked.

    His test results are through, and he was so relieved he sent a picture of them straight to me:

    image

    Well done @eadric. Keep it like that.

    Not so sure about the others, though!
    Reminds me of the essay "Studying for our drugs test" by PJ O'Rourke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Floater said:

    Cuomo tells New York - there is almost no scenario no matter how much we flatten our curve where we realistically avoid the Health System being overwhelmed........

    Jeez. That's bad. Really bad.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Chateau Lagrange 2015 (in bottles)

    Fortnum's = £57.95
    Farr's = £38.70

    A bog standard cru bourgeois in halves from Fortnum's = £17.95. JESUS F*****G CHRIST. They even insult you by not telling you the vintage because you're too dim/rich to care (not you, obvs).

    Presumably it's blended :smiley:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    There's been a slight drop in both the number of cases and deaths in Spain today.

    I think/hope we are near the peak. Certainly the spanish government is praying so as the coalition is fraying and the opposition parties somewhat less compliant. Also the Autonomous Communities are somewhat fretful.
    Fingers crossed for you Felix.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    Now the wine industry uses screw tops, not corks, what's the point?
    What about champagne or other sparklers
    Wine doesn't keep after it is opened.

    Different sizes are far more useful than most people credit. Double bottles are excellent for dinner parties - the wine ages better in the bottle, and you get 10 generous glasses out of one...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:



    Yes.

    But do remember a couple of things:

    1. We start with 100x the testing capacity we had back in January / February. This means we can be much more proactive about getting to cases before they spread. In an ideal world, people who have any symptoms use an app or dial a phone number, and a tester is sent around within a couple of hours. Furthermore, those people who worked with that person can be tested before they spread the disease.

    2. There will be a proportion of the population (between 1% and 15%) who will likely have immunity. These people - once identified - can continue their regular lives, and can act as frontline testers.

    3. As you say, we can be smart at removing restrictions. And we can also be smart at reimposing them.

    4. We will have many more ventilators next time around. And we will likely know drug and treatment regimes that lower the hospitalisation and death rate. (And it's possible that hydroxychloroquine + azythromicin is pretty good.)....

    Possible; but also quite possible it's not.
    Though there are also Remdesivir and Actemra (and others), which look equally, if not more promising.

    Otherwise, agreed. We'll have both more information and more capacity to deal with following peaks, and a better idea of how quickly we might need to lock down and for how long, should things start to get out of control.

    There are some grounds for optimism if we can get through the next few weeks.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Cuomo tells New York - there is almost no scenario no matter how much we flatten our curve where we realistically avoid the Health System being overwhelmed........

    Jeez. That's bad. Really bad.
    His press conference was very, very sober.

    He is very impressive and credit to the press they asked sensible questions and were not just looking to attack him
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    The same China who moaned when other countries did the same to them?
    Its a no brainer tbf
    It is - but they are being hypocrites
    I hope the UK shuts the borders with America for some time when we are through this months before them.

    Could we build a wall and get them to pay for it?

    If and when Trump is re-elected, the worls igoing to have to find a way of working around him. The US is in such a bad place and it is hard to see how it is going to get better. Internally, the divisions are just going to get worse; externally, there will be no rationality. China must see a huge opportunity, though doubts about their regime are surely only going to increase in the West.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:



    The only risk with going ahead with the EU allocation of ventilators is the cost of equipment. Which is trivial in the scheme of things. If the government finds they are surplus to requirements, it can sell them on. It's a no brainer.

    The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.

    Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..

    Do you know?

    My guess - and it is just a guess - that if you participate in the scheme then *all* equipment has to be purchased through it (and shared according to whatever the scheme sets out). This is sensible because it stops the various countries also going direct and competing for supply.

    Given that Smiths Medical (one of the leading manufacturers of ventilators), Medlock Medical (ditto for PPE) and Regent Biogel (ditto for surgical gloves) are all based in the UK it may have been rational for the UK to decline.

    I can quite imagine that the government doesn't want to stand up publicly and say "f*ck everyone else, we are hoarding stuff for our own population". The optics would not be good.

    Do you have the list of countries participating? I don't think it is all of them.

    I'd be particularly interested in Sweden (Molnlycke, Getinge) and Germany (Hartmann).
    It would be reasonable in that case for the government to offer this explanation in response to the direct question. In fact their very weak justification is that "we're no longer members of the EU", which supports my explanation.

    I get the impression that this is something of a Boris Bus project where the project becomes the objective, not the product itself. So that might be part of it.
    If you are going to make an accusation of that serious a nature you need more evidence than "I get the impression"
    It's a case of "wants to believe"

    For information - the Boris Buses are still going strong. The bendy buses they replaced, which were sold to overseas, are all out of service.
    Somewhat more than needed spin in that post. Here's a few more facts.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/31/boris-bus-london-transport-sadiq-khan-end
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?

    I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Floater said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is the latest world data. It appears the latest UK figures for deaths have not been added for some reason.


    My pet peeve.

    If you are going to have two charts with the same categories (in this case countries) side by side then use the same f*cking colours!
    And I'm pretty sure the UK deaths haven't plateaued.....
    Data query: what site are people pulling their death numbers from?

    A popular choice would be John Hopkins CSSE who are helpfully tracking deaths and confirmed by cases by country and region and sticking it up on GitHub. Here's their deaths page for example.

    Problem is, their UK numbers don't seem to match the UK's official figures, whereas Wikipedia's figures seem to be getting it right.

    This is a bit frustrating as it is dead easy to pull the CSSE figures from the raw CSV but then you get UK cumulative death progression as 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 21, 21, 55, 55, 71, 137, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465 (you can see this looks wonky because some of the cumulative totals are repeating from one day to the next, as if nobody had died that day, when the figure hasn't been updated) rather than the (correct?) figures that Wiki has which are 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 8, 10, 21, 35, 55, 71, 103, 144, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465.

    I don't mind hardcoding and typing out a few numbers but it's nicer if you can just write a line of code that goes to an online data source and extracts it all for you, especially if you want to do international comparisons. It's generally a bit fiddlier scraping data from Wikipedia. So where is everyone else going?
    i get mine here

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Or here at a pinch although these guys are a bit slow now


    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

    Thanks, do you know if there is an easy way to download their time series, particularly in an automated way?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Should we be sending aid ships across the Atlantic to New York?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Opposite my house, an elderly chap is helping clean the car of the young family who lives next-door. Yesterday he mowed my front lawn randomly. I don’t think he gets it.

    He probably will.....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:



    The only risk with going ahead with the EU allocation of ventilators is the cost of equipment. Which is trivial in the scheme of things. If the government finds they are surplus to requirements, it can sell them on. It's a no brainer.

    The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.

    Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..

    Do you know?

    My guess - and it is just a guess - that if you participate in the scheme then *all* equipment has to be purchased through it (and shared according to whatever the scheme sets out). This is sensible because it stops the various countries also going direct and competing for supply.

    Given that Smiths Medical (one of the leading manufacturers of ventilators), Medlock Medical (ditto for PPE) and Regent Biogel (ditto for surgical gloves) are all based in the UK it may have been rational for the UK to decline.

    I can quite imagine that the government doesn't want to stand up publicly and say "f*ck everyone else, we are hoarding stuff for our own population". The optics would not be good.

    Do you have the list of countries participating? I don't think it is all of them.

    I'd be particularly interested in Sweden (Molnlycke, Getinge) and Germany (Hartmann).
    It would be reasonable in that case for the government to offer this explanation in response to the direct question. In fact their very weak justification is that "we're no longer members of the EU", which supports my explanation.

    I get the impression that this is something of a Boris Bus project where the project becomes the objective, not the product itself. So that might be part of it.
    If you are going to make an accusation of that serious a nature you need more evidence than "I get the impression"
    I don't think an impression that no-one else needs to share counts as a serious accusation. For the avoidance of doubt, I think we should get other manufacturers to make equipment, where this makes sense, and where OEMs don't have the capacity.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Floater said:

    Cuomo tells New York - there is almost no scenario no matter how much we flatten our curve where we realistically avoid the Health System being overwhelmed........

    It's the Wuhan scenario again, but without the (harsh) options China had.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    rcs1000 said:

    As I'm sure you're all aware, @eadric has been feeling unwell for a couple of days, and went to the doctor to get checked.

    His test results are through, and he was so relieved he sent a picture of them straight to me:

    image

    No Viagra?
    I'd imagined that the collection of incarnations currently known as Eadric would be the types to be at it like bunnies in the face of catastrophe.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    When is Rishi giving money away?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    This half-bottle schtick reminds me of Glenys Kinnock's query of Delia Smith.

    Delia: You can freeze your leftover red wine to use again in gravy

    Glenys: What leftover red wine?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    Employment lawyers aren't going to be short of work for the forseeable future.
    Not so much in the States.
    Employment protections there are far more threadbare than over here.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is the latest world data. It appears the latest UK figures for deaths have not been added for some reason.


    My pet peeve.

    If you are going to have two charts with the same categories (in this case countries) side by side then use the same f*cking colours!
    And I'm pretty sure the UK deaths haven't plateaued.....
    Data query: what site are people pulling their death numbers from?

    A popular choice would be John Hopkins CSSE who are helpfully tracking deaths and confirmed by cases by country and region and sticking it up on GitHub. Here's their deaths page for example.

    Problem is, their UK numbers don't seem to match the UK's official figures, whereas Wikipedia's figures seem to be getting it right.

    This is a bit frustrating as it is dead easy to pull the CSSE figures from the raw CSV but then you get UK cumulative death progression as 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 21, 21, 55, 55, 71, 137, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465 (you can see this looks wonky because some of the cumulative totals are repeating from one day to the next, as if nobody had died that day, when the figure hasn't been updated) rather than the (correct?) figures that Wiki has which are 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 8, 10, 21, 35, 55, 71, 103, 144, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465.

    I don't mind hardcoding and typing out a few numbers but it's nicer if you can just write a line of code that goes to an online data source and extracts it all for you, especially if you want to do international comparisons. It's generally a bit fiddlier scraping data from Wikipedia. So where is everyone else going?
    i get mine here

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Or here at a pinch although these guys are a bit slow now


    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

    Thanks, do you know if there is an easy way to download their time series, particularly in an automated way?
    Sorry, can't help with that
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited March 2020
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?

    I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
    Reassuringly expensive - exactly. Far from me to tell people how to spend their money. Not Russian oligarchs, or you (about the only two categories I can think of who are happy to buy wine at Fortnums).

    As for the Dundee Cake and biscuits, etc, same thing: up to you although I'm betting your local farm shop could do with some help right now.

    Even my Aunt who lives off Eaton Square doesn't stretch to Fortnum's and makes do by slumming it at Jeroboams.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    Now the wine industry uses screw tops, not corks, what's the point?
    What about champagne or other sparklers
    Again, the Glenys Kinnock defence applies.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000

    Should we be sending aid ships across the Atlantic to New York?

    If it's to be an EU joint effort, we should definitely call them bateaux de la liberté.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Another day, another extraordinary decision being considered:

    https://twitter.com/TonyTassell/status/1243215131355557888
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    RobD said:

    Fenster said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    6 new deaths and 113 new cases in Wales

    3 more deaths in NI
    Does anyone have a plausible explanation why over recent days the devolved parts of the UK have reported much higher rises in cases and fatalities than England did?
    I read on Twitter that England only reported haf a day's figures yesterday. That might account for skewed numbers.
    I read that they were only missing a few hours. 7:30 cut off, rather than 9.
    If that's the case then that does sound positive.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    Floater said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is the latest world data. It appears the latest UK figures for deaths have not been added for some reason.


    My pet peeve.

    If you are going to have two charts with the same categories (in this case countries) side by side then use the same f*cking colours!
    And I'm pretty sure the UK deaths haven't plateaued.....
    Data query: what site are people pulling their death numbers from?

    A popular choice would be John Hopkins CSSE who are helpfully tracking deaths and confirmed by cases by country and region and sticking it up on GitHub. Here's their deaths page for example.

    Problem is, their UK numbers don't seem to match the UK's official figures, whereas Wikipedia's figures seem to be getting it right.

    This is a bit frustrating as it is dead easy to pull the CSSE figures from the raw CSV but then you get UK cumulative death progression as 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 21, 21, 55, 55, 71, 137, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465 (you can see this looks wonky because some of the cumulative totals are repeating from one day to the next, as if nobody had died that day, when the figure hasn't been updated) rather than the (correct?) figures that Wiki has which are 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 8, 10, 21, 35, 55, 71, 103, 144, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465.

    I don't mind hardcoding and typing out a few numbers but it's nicer if you can just write a line of code that goes to an online data source and extracts it all for you, especially if you want to do international comparisons. It's generally a bit fiddlier scraping data from Wikipedia. So where is everyone else going?
    i get mine here

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Or here at a pinch although these guys are a bit slow now


    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

    I get mine here

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    There is a company in Kent called Halfwine, have you tried them? Quite a big range but a lot out of stock as we speak (not all down to me I hasten to add)
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    “Half bottles”? I don’t understand. I’d need to drink two of them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?

    I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
    There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
    Excellent!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    All those half bottles suggests a customer base of lonely rich people ?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2020

    I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections :smile:

    What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Barnesian said:

    Floater said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is the latest world data. It appears the latest UK figures for deaths have not been added for some reason.


    My pet peeve.

    If you are going to have two charts with the same categories (in this case countries) side by side then use the same f*cking colours!
    And I'm pretty sure the UK deaths haven't plateaued.....
    Data query: what site are people pulling their death numbers from?

    A popular choice would be John Hopkins CSSE who are helpfully tracking deaths and confirmed by cases by country and region and sticking it up on GitHub. Here's their deaths page for example.

    Problem is, their UK numbers don't seem to match the UK's official figures, whereas Wikipedia's figures seem to be getting it right.

    This is a bit frustrating as it is dead easy to pull the CSSE figures from the raw CSV but then you get UK cumulative death progression as 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 8, 8, 21, 21, 55, 55, 71, 137, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465 (you can see this looks wonky because some of the cumulative totals are repeating from one day to the next, as if nobody had died that day, when the figure hasn't been updated) rather than the (correct?) figures that Wiki has which are 1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 8, 10, 21, 35, 55, 71, 103, 144, 177, 233, 281, 335, 422, 465.

    I don't mind hardcoding and typing out a few numbers but it's nicer if you can just write a line of code that goes to an online data source and extracts it all for you, especially if you want to do international comparisons. It's generally a bit fiddlier scraping data from Wikipedia. So where is everyone else going?
    i get mine here

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Or here at a pinch although these guys are a bit slow now


    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

    I get mine here

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
    Bookmarked thanks
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Yeah, but Fortnums has an unrivalled selection of half bottles.

    Berry Brothers might a better wine merchant, but it simply doesn't stock them.

    When my wife was pregnant, I used to buy loads of half bottles from there.
    All those half bottles suggests a customer base of lonely rich people ?

    add "lightweight" :-)
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Should we be sending aid ships across the Atlantic to New York?

    Not after what they did to the tea last time.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Floater said:
    It's clearly not the flu! But the total lockdown strategy (which we have now moved to) does imply low tens of thousands of deaths in the UK, which is good news at least (cf the table in the linked thread).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections :smile:

    What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
    There is nothing like a glass of champagne - or two - lounging around in the Floral Hall. Makes for the occasion. Haven't been since they democratised it, that said.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?

    I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
    There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
    Your father was obviously an amazing man.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    The Republicans have gone back to odds on favourite for November.

    I can't decide what to do.

    Nothing is probably the best thing to do.
    I have a position I can green out of for basically break even (fractionally green). But I just can't believe that as the bodies start piling up the market will keep believing in Trump.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Contrarily, my alcohol consumption has declined since I entered the Covid-19 twilight world. My other half has decided we need to lose weight so the wine has been sparingly opened.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?

    I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
    There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
    Brilliant!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Greater Manchester police have confirmed that members of the public are allowed to travel to and from allotments as part of their daily exercise set out by the government.

    The clarification comes after a BBC Radio Manchester listener asked the chief constable, Ian Hopkins, if they could still tend to theirs....
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285

    I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections :smile:

    What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
    Hang on, why did no one mention free streams from the Met? How did you get it and are there any more?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    ABZ said:

    On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.

    Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?

    The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.

    To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.

    Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.

    Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.

    It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    ABZ said:

    Floater said:
    It's clearly not the flu! But the total lockdown strategy (which we have now moved to) does imply low tens of thousands of deaths in the UK, which is good news at least (cf the table in the linked thread).
    The Guy from Imperial said yesterday that we could be well below 20,000 deaths

    https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-in-the-uk-nhs-capacity-to-cope-peak-demand-covid-19-outbreak-2518430
  • Nigelb said:

    Greater Manchester police have confirmed that members of the public are allowed to travel to and from allotments as part of their daily exercise set out by the government.

    The clarification comes after a BBC Radio Manchester listener asked the chief constable, Ian Hopkins, if they could still tend to theirs....

    For some reason this made me think of Only Fools and Horses.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    I agree. Apart from a Fortnum's wine delivery (half bottles are very helpful in the present circs!) which has just arrived, my discretionary spending this week has been £0. £2500 ought to be enough to tide most people in furlough over.

    If you are buying wine from Fortnum's then you should be the one dishing out £2,500 to a few thousand people just on principle.

    As a wine guide once observed: if you find yourself in Fortnum's wine department, walk outside and take a taxi to any proper wine shop within a 20 mile radius. The savings you make will be substantial enough to include both the taxi fare there and onward with your wine to home.
    Do Farrs also sell Dundee Cake, and Biscuits, and Jams, and Honeys - and all those other cupboard staples that we seemed to run out of at exactly the same time?

    I also find their deliveries fantastic. Sure, I'm sure I could save money shopping elsewhere, but at the moment they're reassuringly expensive and offer a top service.
    There was a time when my Dad was on an exercise on Salisbury Plain... somehow he persuaded the radio operator to allow him to send a personal message... later that evening a delivery man on a motorbike turned up at his platoon's trench and delivered them a full Fortum's hamper...
    I hope he was promoted for his show of initiative ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    IanB2 said:

    My preferred solution would have been to drop some helicopter money on everyone. Avoid all this admin with grant schemes and loan schemes and means testing forms and the rest.

    Recover the cost on full from higher rate taxpayers by - for this year only - reducing the point at which you pay higher rate tax by a balancing amount. Push the enhanced higher rate tax back up to 50%.

    Partially offset the cost of the helicopter money by reducing the personal tax allowance, for this year only. And by making the helicopter money taxable.

    Those lucky enough to still be earning aren’t spending. Asking us to pay more tax, temporarily, to keep those not earning above water is entirely reasonable.

    Coming along afterwards to try and balance the books will be a lot more difficult. The oldies will have forgotten by then all the sacrifices working age people made to keep them safe, including volunteering in huge numbers to do their shopping and deliver their medicines, and will go back to moaning about having to pay for their TV licence.

    On fire there, Ian. High earners with income still flowing but fewer ways to spend it. What a compelling case - financial and moral - for a tax hike. If there isn't one they could end up better (!) off which would be unconscionable. You would probably have to exempt some people though, e.g. doctors and the like.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections :smile:

    What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
    Hang on, why did no one mention free streams from the Met? How did you get it and are there any more?
    Of champagne ? !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Interesting @felix intends to spend, spend, spend when this is all over. I was wondering earlier if the public would take the opportunity to go crazy with their freedom when we are allowed, or whether the quiet, frugal existence might make them appreciate the best things in life are free.

    I hope for the latter, but am probably wrong
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    I see even in these dark times PB is keeping standards up by discussing F+N wine selections :smile:

    What do you mean 'even'? It's precisely in these dark times that you most need decent wines. (Since you ask, Pol Roger last night, just the non-vintage. I thought about the R de Ruinart, which would have been appropriate as we usually have it at the Royal Opera House, and we were sitting down to watch the free stream of the Met's Die Walküre, but decided the occasion wasn't quite special enough for the Ruinart.)
    What a mixed up post! One minute you are talking about consoling yourself with the pleasure of “decent wines”. Yet, the very next, about over-acidic French plonk tarted up with bubbles to palm it off on those who know no better.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    rcs1000 said:

    ABZ said:

    On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.

    Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?

    The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.

    To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.

    Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.

    Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.

    It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
    The medium-term aim won't be a return to track and trace though. Suppression measures will need to continue for a long time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    I am currently teetotal, but do find red wine is often better the second day, having breathed a bit. White wine tends to go a bit vinegar and lose its floral bouquet though.

    I tend to drink in the £10-15 pound bottle range, so a fraction of the average PB bonus vivier.

    It is worrying re @eadrics results, several more weeks of quivering anxiety to come. He may need to double up on the pills.
  • Rishi - the business interruption loans aren't interest free if the banks apply large rates of interest as they are...
  • Mrs RP just walked in. Hears the radio - "Is that Rishi Sunak? He sounds just like Tony Blair..."
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    rcs1000 said:

    ABZ said:

    On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I think this is where we are in Italy at present.

    Are you talking about a peak in total number infected, or number of positive daily tests?

    The other problem, of course, in measuring where countries are is the difference in testing regimes. If a country moves to only testing people in hospital with obvious symptoms, then it'll probably see the number of tests decline, and the number of positives decline. Yet that masks underlying deterioration.

    To my mind the evidence of getting CV-19 under control in a country is when you get the combination of (a) rising numbers of tests, and (b) falling number of positives.

    Which is where Italy was yesterday - all time peak in numbers of administered tests, sixth highest number of positives.

    Hopefully today will see another peak in number of administered tests, and the number of positives drop again.

    It will also be instructive to see where we are with Lombardy and Veneto, as they are 3-4 days ahead of the rest of Italy.
    I'm talking about the number of new infections per day. I think that will not really peak but plateau due to the latency of the disease being itself stochastic (between 14 and 21 days post-infection to having to go to ICU). That will mean it's not a peak but more of a plateau.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:



    The only risk with going ahead with the EU allocation of ventilators is the cost of equipment. Which is trivial in the scheme of things. If the government finds they are surplus to requirements, it can sell them on. It's a no brainer.

    The risks are much higher of depending on a manufacturer, who hasn't made this equipment before to productise a new design in a matter of days without testing in the field. It is sensible to mitigate that risk.

    Brexit is the only reason I can see for not doing so. The government hasn't actually put forward a justification for not doing so..

    Do you know?

    My guess - and it is just a guess - that if you participate in the scheme then *all* equipment has to be purchased through it (and shared according to whatever the scheme sets out). This is sensible because it stops the various countries also going direct and competing for supply.

    Given that Smiths Medical (one of the leading manufacturers of ventilators), Medlock Medical (ditto for PPE) and Regent Biogel (ditto for surgical gloves) are all based in the UK it may have been rational for the UK to decline.

    I can quite imagine that the government doesn't want to stand up publicly and say "f*ck everyone else, we are hoarding stuff for our own population". The optics would not be good.

    Do you have the list of countries participating? I don't think it is all of them.

    I'd be particularly interested in Sweden (Molnlycke, Getinge) and Germany (Hartmann).
    It would be reasonable in that case for the government to offer this explanation in response to the direct question. In fact their very weak justification is that "we're no longer members of the EU", which supports my explanation.

    I get the impression that this is something of a Boris Bus project where the project becomes the objective, not the product itself. So that might be part of it.
    If you are going to make an accusation of that serious a nature you need more evidence than "I get the impression"
    It's a case of "wants to believe"

    For information - the Boris Buses are still going strong. The bendy buses they replaced, which were sold to overseas, are all out of service.
    Somewhat more than needed spin in that post. Here's a few more facts.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/31/boris-bus-london-transport-sadiq-khan-end
    Fcats - in the Grauniad?!?!?
This discussion has been closed.