Oddly enough, I think the worst may have passed - not necessarily in terms of cases and deaths but in terms of the Government and people running round like headless chickens.
Action is being taken, a policy has been set - whether it's the right policy or whether it could or should have been put in place earlier are questions for another day. For now, decision has replaced indecision, action has replaced inaction, trust has replaced mistrust.
I share the concern of those who fear a premature lifting of restrictions will fire up the cases - we need to ensure the virus fire is fully extinguished.
Speaking to colleagues talking to councils large and small today, there's a huge gulf of expectation and opinion over how and when restrictions will be lifted. One key date might be the VE or will that be called VC Day celebrations on May 8th. There's a view Johnson will want the country back to normal to have a right party but there's a big risk attached.
One colleague thinks lock-down will continue for 3 months while another thinks it could be a year before all restrictions are lifted.
Where will the current largesse leave funding for local Government in 2022-23 and beyond? What about funding for adult social care and care for vulnerable children? There's a fear deep austerity will return in the second half of this Parliament as Sunak faces the bill he has been forced to run up to try to cushion the severity of the short-term recession.
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
How much has testing increased in past 7 days
Is it lower than 5,000?
Last week average was higher than first 2 days this week according to Jeremy Hunt who says we are not increasing fast enough.
You are the one who needs to justify the response your saying its wonderful. I think its 6.5/10 whats your score 10.5/10
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
How much has testing increased in past 7 days
Is it lower than 5,000?
Last week average was higher than first 2 days this week according to Jeremy Hunt who says we are not increasing fast enough.
You are the one who needs to justify the response your saying its wonderful. I think its 6.5/10 whats your score 10.5/10
Where am I saying it is wonderful? I just find it extremely hard to believe they aren't trying to ramp up testing as fast as possible.
How will they control the panic buying of antibody test kits?
Remind people that they will be being touched, bought and therefore kept in a queue with a load of people who have coronavirus?
not if you buy via Amazon.
So they will have been touched by a load of people working crazy hours handling goods from China and Italy while not wearing gloves because their bosses are a mix of loons and lowlifes?
Yeah, that’s much safer.
Just put it in quarantine for 3 days when it arrives, or wipe it with surgical spirit.
If you are @eadric you can use your Absinthe stock instead, as long as it is 60-70% alcohol.
How will they control the panic buying of antibody test kits?
Remind people that they will be being touched, bought and therefore kept in a queue with a load of people who have coronavirus?
not if you buy via Amazon.
So they will have been touched by a load of people working crazy hours handling goods from China and Italy while not wearing gloves because their bosses are a mix of loons and lowlifes?
Yeah, that’s much safer.
Just put it in quarantine for 3 days when it arrives, or wipe it with surgical spirit.
If you are @eadric you can use your Absinthe stock instead, as long as it is 60-70% alcohol.
Eadric drinks things that are as low as 60% alcohol?!
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
How will they control the panic buying of antibody test kits?
Remind people that they will be being touched, bought and therefore kept in a queue with a load of people who have coronavirus?
not if you buy via Amazon.
So they will have been touched by a load of people working crazy hours handling goods from China and Italy while not wearing gloves because their bosses are a mix of loons and lowlifes?
Yeah, that’s much safer.
Just put it in quarantine for 3 days when it arrives, or wipe it with surgical spirit.
If you are @eadric you can use your Absinthe stock instead, as long as it is 60-70% alcohol.
Eadric drinks things that are as low as 60% alcohol?!
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Crete was perfectly defensible - if the clown in charge had bothered to read the detailed ULTRA based reports given him. They gave him the entire German plan - pretty much down to how many spare pocket handkerchiefs the paratroops would be carrying and what colours.
This included the detail that since the German parachute design was particularly stupid, they would be landing armed only with pistols. Everything else, including rifles would be in parachuted containers.
Trying to defend Crete at the cost of securing Libya was utterly indefensible. It was Churchill’s posturing at its worst, and most costly.
That’s not forgetting Gallipoli either.
I don't think doing both was impossible.
Crete destroyed the German airborne units. It should have been a complete defeat for them.
But the airfields weren't retaken quickly enough to prevent German reinforcements being flown in.
If Freyberg had actually gone with the detailed invasion plan he was given - which he didn't do even after they proven to be perfectly accurate by the first wave, then the airfields wouldn't have been lost.
Hell, the locals could have pitchforked all the German paras to death if they had been given a bit of notice - as it was civilians killed a substantial number of these elite troops.
The situation on the Underground has eased slightly today with the welcome news a number of construction companies have agreed to close their sites for the duration of the lock down.
Unfortunately, that doesn't apply to all and contradictory messages from Hancock and Gove haven't helped at all. The notion one can apply social distancing while working outdoors on a building site is one thing but if all the workers are cheek by jowl on the tube going and coming back it's not going to make much difference.
While Khan hasn't played this well, I do think not enforcing a shutdown of construction sites last week was a mistake. I see any number of construction workers covering the gamut of trades on the tube platform of an early morning - keeping them at home and safe and keeping the tube purely for key workers must be the solution.
I also note the exhortation not to travel, while prominent on the Transport for London website, is not on the South Western Railways site for example. I suspect the more white collar travellers coming up from Surrey and Hampshire have been absent these past days.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Etc.
Surely both random sample and for key workers. They serve different purposes.
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Etc.
Timpson Joke count up to 6 in past 5 hrs Its the new EICIPM!!
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Etc.
Timpson Joke count up to 6 in past 5 hrs Its the new EICIPM!!
Crete was perfectly defensible - if the clown in charge had bothered to read the detailed ULTRA based reports given him. They gave him the entire German plan - pretty much down to how many spare pocket handkerchiefs the paratroops would be carrying and what colours.
This included the detail that since the German parachute design was particularly stupid, they would be landing armed only with pistols. Everything else, including rifles would be in parachuted containers.
Trying to defend Crete at the cost of securing Libya was utterly indefensible. It was Churchill’s posturing at its worst, and most costly.
That’s not forgetting Gallipoli either.
I don't think doing both was impossible.
Crete destroyed the German airborne units. It should have been a complete defeat for them.
But the airfields weren't retaken quickly enough to prevent German reinforcements being flown in.
It has been said that one reason FDR went off Churchill by Yalta was the Americans had to keep bailing out the British after Winston's adventurism and his repeated failure to grasp logistics and reinforcements.
I read the other day that Stalin partly wanted it at Yalta because he was scared of flying.
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Etc.
Timpson Joke count up to 6 in past 5 hrs Its the new EICIPM!!
You missed Albanian Taxi drivers. Again
Isn't he busy at the moment in his new job processing CV tests?
On the Gwent hotspot.....has anyone made the connection to the Stereophonics concert on the 15th March?
A leading scientist ion Italy is convinced that the Bergamo hotpspot was fuelled by bus loads of fans being transported to the San Siro to watch Atlanta play Valencia in early March
It’s almost as if social distancing is an effective way to mitigate a pandemic...
From that article: "His comments come as a team at the University of Oxford released provisional findings of a different model that they say shows that up to half the UK population could already have been infected. The model is based on different assumptions to those of Ferguson and others involved in advising the UK government. Most importantly, it assumes that most people who contract the virus don’t show symptoms and that very few need to go to hospital. “I don’t think that’s consistent with the observed data,” Ferguson told the committee."
We don't currently know which model is nearest the truth because we haven't done enough testing.
That Oxford study doesn't even purport to be a model of what's actually happening, and as Prof Ferguson said, it doesn't fit the data that we already have. We don't need any more testing to know that it's wrong.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
For some reason I am reminded of people being surprised that if a politician gives a speech, all the promises are not actually delivered at the full stops.
It’s almost as if social distancing is an effective way to mitigate a pandemic...
From that article: "His comments come as a team at the University of Oxford released provisional findings of a different model that they say shows that up to half the UK population could already have been infected. The model is based on different assumptions to those of Ferguson and others involved in advising the UK government. Most importantly, it assumes that most people who contract the virus don’t show symptoms and that very few need to go to hospital. “I don’t think that’s consistent with the observed data,” Ferguson told the committee."
We don't currently know which model is nearest the truth because we haven't done enough testing.
That Oxford study doesn't even purport to be a model of what's actually happening, and as Prof Ferguson said, it doesn't fit the data that we already have. We don't need any more testing to know that it's wrong.
It seemed to me to be nothing more than a "what if".
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
On the Gwent hotspot.....has anyone made the connection to the Stereophonics concert on the 15th March?
A leading scientist ion Italy is convinced that the Bergamo hotpspot was fuelled by bus loads of fans being transported to the San Siro to watch Atlanta play Valencia in early March
“In Gwent, we are seeing a rapidly rising increase in the number of cases of coronavirus in all our communities and a daily increase in the number of people being admitted to hospital and the number of people dying from the virus,” Dr Sarah Aitken said.
“The pattern we are seeing in Gwent is the same pattern as was seen in Italy, where their healthcare system is now overwhelmed.
“Without a huge effort by all of us, we are heading for the moment in Gwent where our NHS will be overwhelmed too.
“We won’t have enough hospital beds for everyone who needs life-saving ventilators and intensive care.”
She urged people to stay at home to give the health board “essential time” to bring more doctors and nurses into the workforce, as well as extra ventilators and additional intensive care beds.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Etc.
Timpson Joke count up to 6 in past 5 hrs Its the new EICIPM!!
Well it was my fault, I believe, describing them as key workers in the first place.
Jérôme Salomon has announced the latest coronavirus figures. There are now 25,233 confirmed cases in France 1,331 deaths, of which 86% were people aged over 70 years. The death rate rose by 231 in 24 hours. These are hospital deaths only, not those in retirement homes or outside hospitals.
There are currently 11,539 people in French hospitals with the coronavirus, 2,827 in intensive care.
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Etc.
One exception to this would be to test almost everyone from a sample which is fairly representative of the UK population, so that we get a good idea of how many were exposed to the virus but had no symptoms / minor symptoms etc.
It makes a massive difference to the easing off strategy if we know that 10% or 60% have had Corona.
On the Gwent hotspot.....has anyone made the connection to the Stereophonics concert on the 15th March?
A leading scientist ion Italy is convinced that the Bergamo hotpspot was fuelled by bus loads of fans being transported to the San Siro to watch Atlanta play Valencia in early March
And reciprocally in Valencia which sparked that hot spot.
On the Gwent hotspot.....has anyone made the connection to the Stereophonics concert on the 15th March?
A leading scientist ion Italy is convinced that the Bergamo hotpspot was fuelled by bus loads of fans being transported to the San Siro to watch Atlanta play Valencia in early March
And reciprocally in Valencia which sparked that hot spot.
@Cyclefree Gardening Corner. Today's question is about Microveg grown indoors in my conservatory.
Two weeks ago I planted a seed tray with Spring Onions (LHS in pic below), and Parskey (RHS), using seeds from last year though still in date. The compost was the last from last year.
The Parsley is fine, but the Spring Onions are growing fungus. Is that likely to be the seeds or the compost, and do I need to throw that half of the tray away, and start again - I have both new seeds and new compost?
Crete was perfectly defensible - if the clown in charge had bothered to read the detailed ULTRA based reports given him. They gave him the entire German plan - pretty much down to how many spare pocket handkerchiefs the paratroops would be carrying and what colours.
This included the detail that since the German parachute design was particularly stupid, they would be landing armed only with pistols. Everything else, including rifles would be in parachuted containers.
Trying to defend Crete at the cost of securing Libya was utterly indefensible. It was Churchill’s posturing at its worst, and most costly.
That’s not forgetting Gallipoli either.
I don't think doing both was impossible.
Crete destroyed the German airborne units. It should have been a complete defeat for them.
But the airfields weren't retaken quickly enough to prevent German reinforcements being flown in.
It has been said that one reason FDR went off Churchill by Yalta was the Americans had to keep bailing out the British after Winston's adventurism and his repeated failure to grasp logistics and reinforcements.
I read the other day that Stalin partly wanted it at Yalta because he was scared of flying.
He certainly went everywhere by train. One of the attractions of the Stalin Museum in Gori, his home town in Georgia, is one of his trains. Along with the wooden cottage he was allegedly born in, and a wonderfully kitsch museum full of Uncle Joe hagiography and memorabilia
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
Crete was perfectly defensible - if the clown in charge had bothered to read the detailed ULTRA based reports given him. They gave him the entire German plan - pretty much down to how many spare pocket handkerchiefs the paratroops would be carrying and what colours.
This included the detail that since the German parachute design was particularly stupid, they would be landing armed only with pistols. Everything else, including rifles would be in parachuted containers.
Trying to defend Crete at the cost of securing Libya was utterly indefensible. It was Churchill’s posturing at its worst, and most costly.
That’s not forgetting Gallipoli either.
I don't think doing both was impossible.
Crete destroyed the German airborne units. It should have been a complete defeat for them.
But the airfields weren't retaken quickly enough to prevent German reinforcements being flown in.
It has been said that one reason FDR went off Churchill by Yalta was the Americans had to keep bailing out the British after Winston's adventurism and his repeated failure to grasp logistics and reinforcements.
I read the other day that Stalin partly wanted it at Yalta because he was scared of flying.
He certainly went everywhere by train. One of the attractions of the Stalin Museum in Gori, his home town in Georgia, is one of his trains. Along with the wooden cottage he was allegedly born in, and a wonderfully kitsch museum full of Uncle Joe hagiography and memorabilia
I somehow doubt that there is a Hitler museum in Austria.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
I don't know, because of the difficulties in procuring the materials necessary for them, confounded by the fact that every other country on the face of the Earth is also looking for them?
I don't think the government are dragging their heels on this at all, but you seem to be suggesting that they are somehow.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
Indeed. The Oxford one would work in theory, but it would be better to have a Cambridge one that works in practice.
I think they need to get somebody from a superior institution to come and double check it...we know how shoddy a lot of the work from there can be, picks up copy of today's FT...
Have to say before this I didn’t rate Hancock at all but he has done really well.
Pandemic planning should be something the NHS is very good at and part of their routine functions. Also they have had 2 months notice of the potential for this to start spreading here.
If anything I am surprised at how slow they are in dealing with some of the basics - PPE and ramping up the testing rate in particular. Is it lack of domestic suppliers that is the problem. Definitely something for the Public Inquiry to look at.
I don't think this is correct. Prof Ferguson produced the paper that convinced the government to change its policy. Ferguson does appear to have been sceptical earlier that containment policies would actually reduce the infection rate and that may have influenced government policy. He seems to have revised his mortality estimates downwards. I doubt know whether that's because the containment methods are effective or due to a better understanding of the epidemic after a couple of weeks.
Incidentally the information about the Italian mortality and serious illness rates that informed Ferguson's paper was available earlier to the UK government at the EU COVID19 information sharing meeting, but the government wasn't aware of it due to it boycotting that meeting for reasons of Brexit ideology.
Is there a source for the claim that this information was only shared at this meeting, and not more widely? Seems a bit strange to keep information like this secret.
I'm also intrigued that such a fan of the EU is implicating our European friends and partners in the death of a large number of British citizens.
Wonder where they have get all the spare beds from? Are a massive amount warehoused away somewhere, "just in case"?
Again makes you wonder if somebody has quietly been doing that for a while. This Excel plan clearly isn't out of the blue and NEC / G-Mex made it clear they are next up if required.
Jérôme Salomon, the director general of the French health service, has announced the latest coronavirus figures. There are now 25,233 confirmed cases in France, 1,331 deaths, of which 86% were people aged over 70 years. The death rate rose by 231 in 24 hours. These are hospital deaths only, not those in retirement homes or outside hospitals.
Testing next week will move that number up or down depending if they materialize
Everyone who is admitted to hospital is tested - sounds like the current “have you got it” test has limited use beyond that now.
We need the “have you had it” test.
NHS staff not getting have you got it test. That is i would have thought a massive problem.
You would have to test them every day - is that a good use of resources ?
No you wouldnt
FU will explain and Foxy too
but if you were going into hospital would you be happy to be treated by staff who must have a higher chance than the general population of having this by the very nature of their work
Even worse you need to go to hospital but you cant because NHS and ambulance staff were at home self isolating because they havent been tested
hence needing an *accurate* antibody test.
BJO is disgusted Boris hasn’t knocked 3 million up in his kitchen overnight.
Party members first.
its not a laughing matter Rob surprised you have stooped to TGHOF level
You can't test everybody.
Testing with current "have you got it " test at high levels eventually has diminishing returns.
The CMO does not want to start with antibody tests until the performance has been verified as sound.
And when the antibody test is available, surely it makes sense to have some of priority order for testing large groups. Having flaky writers and every worried pensioner queuing outside the chemist for a test they objectively don’t need would just be dumb. We should ensure we get a good random sample but otherwise go for something like:
- all NHS staff - Timpsons staff - care workers - army and police - supermarket workers - posties and delivery drivers - NHS volunteers - PB article writers
Etc.
Timpson Joke count up to 6 in past 5 hrs Its the new EICIPM!!
Well it was my fault, I believe, describing them as key workers in the first place.
Could combine with the dockside hooker meme to cover other quay workers.
Have to say before this I didn’t rate Hancock at all but he has done really well.
Pandemic planning should be something the NHS is very good at and part of their routine functions. Also they have had 2 months notice of the potential for this to start spreading here.
If anything I am surprised at how slow they are in dealing with some of the basics - PPE and ramping up the testing rate in particular. Is it lack of domestic suppliers that is the problem. Definitely something for the Public Inquiry to look at.
It said that the NHS Pandemic Plan contained no mention of needing more Ventilators.
Whoever was responsible for that oversight ought not to go near a future planning exercise imo
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
I am off work at Boris' request, earning diddly squat, and eager for tomorrow's announcement. yet Halfords and off licences are now off the closed list with a blind eye turned to any random construction project. The Government's advice has changed/ been diluted, call it what you will about going to work. I know this because Piers Morgan told me this morning on GMB. Morgan confronted Jenrick, implying a capitulation. The worst side effect of the whole crisis is I now agree with Piers Morgan.
For all the Boris cheerleaders on PB this is not a party political point as the Labour Party have disappeared from sight.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
Have to say before this I didn’t rate Hancock at all but he has done really well.
I disagree - his jibe at Sadiq Khan was unnecessary and his comments about construction workers continuing to need to work have only exacerbated problems.
...I was curious what you make of him, as a professional in the field with an academic angle. It strikes me that where XR have been successful largely aligns with your interests (getting people to take climate change seriously and potentially moving civil society towards enacting steps that might do something about it) and you've been lucky that their more extreme members, who depart from conventional science, haven't, as far as I can see, been quite so successful in the areas where they're misaligned with you. Politicians may pay more attention to messaging and opinion polls than to a scientific evidence base, but 'twas ever thus - and climate change academia still seems a place where a lot of level-headed scientists are pursuing careful, evidence-based approaches; they don't seem to be being purged or defunded en masse for "insufficient radicalism" to make way for politically-driven activist types who spout scientifically illiterate prophecies in the hope of capturing the public's or politicians' attention.
The "Deep Adaptation" crowd, with their pessimism that the most damaging levels of climate change can be avoided and suggested switch of effort to surviving our new reality, seem more fundamentally at odds with you (as I was sarcastically attempting to suggest). Their strategy of trying to gain a foothold within academia is interesting too - in ten years' time, how many geography departments will have bright young radical academics with PhDs in an autoethnographic account of my preparations to survive the imminent climate apocalpyse or similar? I meet quite a few young graduates on the humanities/social science side of things for whom this message seems to resonate.
...
Honestly though, I know almost nothing about him. In my professional life, I don't encounter him, or anyone who subscribes to that philosophy. Despite being politically engaged, I have avoided being too political in connection with my research because I recognise that my expertise on climate change does not make me an expert on what should be done about it. To the extent that I act on it, it is more about people in my field setting a good example. I haven't taken an intercontinental flight in years, which is rare among scientists, and I annoy colleagues by saying that right-wingers are right to call us hypocrites, and that we should stop our idle chatter about population control until we are prepared to make far more drastic changes in our own lives.
I very much agree with your first paragraph. I haven't seen macro-politics play any role in the peer-review process. The closest I have experienced was when a high-profile colleague got upset, for purely scientific reasons, about a paper I was coauthor on, and complained that climate change deniers might try to make capital out of it. Even then though, he made it clear that he didn't want the paper withdrawn - he just wanted the satisfaction of us telling him we were wrong!
On your second paragraph, because what foothold they have gained is not in respectable enough circles to be relevant to me, I find it hard to comment. Maybe I need to be more aware of this. So far all of my PhD students have been very level headed, and when I get my Masters students to debate geoengineering (for example), they stick to rational arguments.
All I would say is that I don't accept that any realistic anthropogenic climate change could threaten the survival of the human species, except indirectly via geopolitics. It is very serious, and it is worth taking very painful measures to prevent, including coordinated abandonment of economic growth as a goal if necessary (said without any expertise in economics). But when I hear people being outright apocalyptic about climate change, I cringe.
Thanks for taking time to reply! I always enjoy the "interesting" looks I get from left-wing self-identified "green" types during conversations about everyone's exciting holiday plans I make clear that I am not going abroad because I don't agree with flying...but then, I have plenty of alternative means of hypocrisy!
Glad the impression I'd gained from others about your sphere of work seems true to you too. On the other hand it seems you are involved in the "hard" end (modelling etc presumably) whereas I think the apocalyptic types - whether the XR fringes or the Deep Adaptation types - in academia are generally more from the "soft" end, free from any expectation people can crunch through the physics or coding. Climate change is always going to require interdisciplinary/multidisciplinary approaches (and there's even some politics in the choice of inter vs multi!). Specialists in politics or sociology of climate change might help unlock what it takes to secure public buy-in and get interventions enacted. Economists, perhaps somewhere in the middle of hard and soft, can model possible emissions trajectories as well as the cost-effectiveness and equity considerations of the interventions. The interplay of so many different facets of society and the environment draws in people with a "systems approach" background, including soft systems methodology.
I think in those kinds of areas there's more chance of people bringing their ideology into their research. That cuts both ways of course, I've met plenty of people who thought the Stern Review was too weak because Stern was too married to "conventional" economic thinking (about value of natural capital, discount rates etc, all of which sat on essentially ethical assumptions and perspectives) but on the flip side it's no secret that the majority of people who go into academia, especially those who do so "to make a difference", are left-wing. The author's values probably permeate rather less through a paper modelling radiative forcing, rather more through an economic cost-benefit analysis and a lot more if you're applying a symbolic interactionist autoethnographic approach to analyse the "activist identity" formation of an environmentalist. That's without getting onto papers on climate change from the perspective of grounded theory, critical theory, ecofeminism or queer ecology... in many qualitative methodologies the principle of "reflexivity" means it can even be bad form to "leave your ideology at home". I guess those papers rarely appear in journals you review for or even read, but there's plenty of people making a living from that kind of research output.
Obviously you know your field far better than I do, but my impression is that researchers on the "hard" side often see "public engagement" in terms of basic science education, STEM initiatives for kids, and attempts to debunk a persistent minority of climate skeptics - but ironically much of that is too technical for most of public to want to engage with! There are climate eggheads sitting on governmental advisory panels and so on, but with what ultimate influence? (Presumably more than it sounds I'm granting credit for, but if so largely invisibly.) Whereas I get the impression people from the "soft" side have done well at getting into civil society orgs, social media channels, the climate activist base, etc. As you said this is the side a lot of the momentum for change is being driven from! But if they (or a significant fraction thereof) start singing from a different hymn sheet about the science, there are risks there. Hopefully it doesn't all end with the public tuning out as fewer find the promised apocalypse credible - or alternatively, now treat it as inevitable so pointless to resist! - nor with climate modellers derided as corporate shills for refusing to believe Western civilisation will collapse within ten years.
So part of me wishes the top scientists from the "hard" end got more engaged and spoke more loudly - it seems wrong for them to have less voice than some academically fringe professor (albeit funded and at a reputable university) who can rally a network of thousands of supporters globally with every blog entry about their civilisation's impending doom. And yet another part of me holds back - do the nuanced, cautious views of an expert lack that vital capacity to resonate, enthuse or scare their audience into action? Particularly when they admit what they don't know? And would an activist-scientist lose public trust through their apparent loss of objectivity? A hard balance to reach, I think, but surely at a minimum we should be hearing more from the most eminent experts than from teenage schoolkids?
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
Borrelli has fever today. He is at home. We got two new men reading the numbers.
Currently positive: 57.521 (+3.491) including 3.489 (+93) in UCI Deaths: 7.503 (+683) Healed: 9.362 (+1.036)
Total new cases +5.210
So, the currently positive number in Italy grew 7.5%, its lowest number since the beginning of the crisis.
There's more positive news in there. Italy performed the highest number of tests of any day of the outbreak, 27,481 - which is 28% up on yesterday. Despite this big increase in testing, the number of new cases dropped slightly to 5,210.
In Lombardy, where the virus started, new cases were 1,643. That's almost exactly half of the peak level of 3,241.
In summary, the numbers are coming down quickly in Lombardy now, and are slowly declining for Italy as a whole. The positive percentage for tests also fell below 20%. Bear in mind that a week ago it was in the 30s.
If there is a concern, it is that the overall numbers are not dropping rapidly yet. But so long as the rest of Italy is just following Lombardy by four or five days, then the numbers are pretty encouraging.
I look forward to your positive analysis every day. Sincerely. Thankyou.
On a less promising note did you see that Hong Kong saw a quite rapid doubling of numbers (in a week) as soon as they relaxed restrictions?
That’s going to be the 2nd test. When and how do you let it surge again. Warm weather seemingly does not help that much.
We don't yet know how to relax measures well. It has to be in the context of better treatment and mass (250k+/day) tests.
And it's OK to see numbers rise after removing the lockdown. We just need to see the numbers increase slowly. If it goes from 10 cases/day to 20/day over the course of two weeks - and that's the doubling pace, then that's OK.
If it goes 10/day to 20/day to 40/day to 80/day over the course of two weeks, then that's not OK.
Beth Rigby (Sky News) in a packaged report (ie not said off the cuff) just said there are 1.7 million self-employed people in the UK.
Basic common sense would suggest that figure has to be too low - just checked and per ONS the figure is actually 5.03 million.
So she's got the most simple, basic information wrong about the very question she asked the PM today.
It's absolutely hopeless - but it's a familiar story - anything requiring any attention to detail and / or involving numbers and the chances are even supposedly reputable people in high profile positions will get it wrong.
Have to say before this I didn’t rate Hancock at all but he has done really well.
Pandemic planning should be something the NHS is very good at and part of their routine functions. Also they have had 2 months notice of the potential for this to start spreading here.
If anything I am surprised at how slow they are in dealing with some of the basics - PPE and ramping up the testing rate in particular. Is it lack of domestic suppliers that is the problem. Definitely something for the Public Inquiry to look at.
It said that the NHS Pandemic Plan contained no mention of needing more Ventilators.
Whoever was responsible for that oversight ought not to go near a future planning exercise imo
Interesting, I hadn't heard that. I had a sense that the initial government response and modelling seemed to fixate on a ' flu' pandemic rather than a sars type and I wonder if that's where we went wrong.
Beth Rigby (Sky News) in a packaged report (ie not said off the cuff) just said there are 1.7 million self-employed people in the UK.
Basic common sense would suggest that figure has to be too low - just checked and per ONS the figure is actually 5.03 million.
So she's got the most simple, basic information wrong about the very question she asked the PM today.
It's absolutely hopeless - but it's a familiar story - anything requiring any attention to detail and / or involving numbers and the chances are even supposedly reputable people in high profile positions will get it wrong.
The media seem to regard hard facts as unfriendly. Hence this old joke -
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
The guidance quietly changed from only key workers go to work to all go to work unless they can work at home. This is not a proper lockdown at all. It's a half measure that will cost lives and help the virus spread. #botchedlockdownpic.twitter.com/yvxp3j44CV
"Coronavirus crisis could cause a loneliness epidemic in older adults: Study shows cutting off over-50s from transport, retail and leisure facilities increases feelings of isolation and depression"
"Europe's odd man out: Sweden refuses to bring in lockdowns despite 2,272 infections, keeps bars open and even encourages people to go out Primary schools, restaurants and bars open encouraging people to go outside"
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
You think he can just click his fingers and magic up the stuff necessary for these testing kits?
"We have plenty" of the have you got it type according to the CMO at todays briefing
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
How about engaging on the point, rather than having a go at me. If it was feasible to up testing by that much so quickly, don't you think they would have done it already?
I dont know you would have thought so but why arent they rising rapidly as promised? The Government is doing well in some stuff like the ramping up of the Lockdown but IMO falling short on rapid ramp up of tests
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
Indeed and we know what happened to him in 1945. KSICIPM
...or RLBICIPM! Bearing in mind Starmer's supporters are still waiting the arrival of their ballot papers. Jenny Formby rocks!
Formby too busy suspending AS members presumably to issue ballot papers to MPs who have raised 100 complaints of AS a day!!
Her days are numbered i predict SKS will sack her before the 2020 Conference
I genuinely hope you are right. I have this nagging feeling that in 10 days time we will be 'celebrating' RLBs marginal victory over Starmer.
The people running the circus are so corrupt, if he does win Starmer needs to drain the swamp.
At a time of national crisis we have no opposition.
They are not very good at being corrupt in a left supporting way.
The top nominated BAME NEC bloke and 2 other highly nominated Left Wing NEC Candidates all been suspended in last 7 days. All 3 were Momentum Candidates.
SKS will rid the Party of Milne and others in Corbyns team, I would be surprised if Formby doesnt go too. He will win on first ballot. I am looking forward to seeing how he performs he really does have a golden pass with the Virus
"Europe's odd man out: Sweden refuses to bring in lockdowns despite 2,272 infections, keeps bars open and even encourages people to go out Primary schools, restaurants and bars open encouraging people to go outside"
"Europe's odd man out: Sweden refuses to bring in lockdowns despite 2,272 infections, keeps bars open and even encourages people to go out Primary schools, restaurants and bars open encouraging people to go outside"
"Europe's odd man out: Sweden refuses to bring in lockdowns despite 2,272 infections, keeps bars open and even encourages people to go out Primary schools, restaurants and bars open encouraging people to go outside"
Comments
Russia 658 +163 3 +2
"official" figures anyway
Oddly enough, I think the worst may have passed - not necessarily in terms of cases and deaths but in terms of the Government and people running round like headless chickens.
Action is being taken, a policy has been set - whether it's the right policy or whether it could or should have been put in place earlier are questions for another day. For now, decision has replaced indecision, action has replaced inaction, trust has replaced mistrust.
I share the concern of those who fear a premature lifting of restrictions will fire up the cases - we need to ensure the virus fire is fully extinguished.
Speaking to colleagues talking to councils large and small today, there's a huge gulf of expectation and opinion over how and when restrictions will be lifted. One key date might be the VE or will that be called VC Day celebrations on May 8th. There's a view Johnson will want the country back to normal to have a right party but there's a big risk attached.
One colleague thinks lock-down will continue for 3 months while another thinks it could be a year before all restrictions are lifted.
Where will the current largesse leave funding for local Government in 2022-23 and beyond? What about funding for adult social care and care for vulnerable children? There's a fear deep austerity will return in the second half of this Parliament as Sunak faces the bill he has been forced to run up to try to cushion the severity of the short-term recession.
You are the one who needs to justify the response your saying its wonderful. I think its 6.5/10 whats your score 10.5/10
If you are @eadric you can use your Absinthe stock instead, as long as it is 60-70% alcohol.
Ramping UP rather suggests rapid increase in tests particularly as that what was said
Hunt thinks its disappointing whats your score?
ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT QUOTE ON 18.3.20 WAS
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000,"
- all NHS staff
- Timpsons staff
- care workers
- army and police
- supermarket workers
- posties and delivery drivers
- NHS volunteers
- PB article writers
Etc.
Hell, the locals could have pitchforked all the German paras to death if they had been given a bit of notice - as it was civilians killed a substantial number of these elite troops.
Unfortunately, that doesn't apply to all and contradictory messages from Hancock and Gove haven't helped at all. The notion one can apply social distancing while working outdoors on a building site is one thing but if all the workers are cheek by jowl on the tube going and coming back it's not going to make much difference.
While Khan hasn't played this well, I do think not enforcing a shutdown of construction sites last week was a mistake. I see any number of construction workers covering the gamut of trades on the tube platform of an early morning - keeping them at home and safe and keeping the tube purely for key workers must be the solution.
I also note the exhortation not to travel, while prominent on the Transport for London website, is not on the South Western Railways site for example. I suspect the more white collar travellers coming up from Surrey and Hampshire have been absent these past days.
I was supposed to be flying to Pisa tomorrow for a week in Italy....
And...my friend in Tuscany sent me some pics today....there is about 10cm of snow that has fallen
A leading scientist ion Italy is convinced that the Bergamo hotpspot was fuelled by bus loads of fans being transported to the San Siro to watch Atlanta play Valencia in early March
Domestic violence goes up - is my sad, sad thought.
Its OK Rob if you dont want to score the Government effort out of 10 I will presume your a 10.5 until you get back to me. You dont get drummed out of the PB Tory club unless you score less than 9.9/10 you know
You are not even a tiny bit disappointed in the testing numbers thats fine
“The pattern we are seeing in Gwent is the same pattern as was seen in Italy, where their healthcare system is now overwhelmed.
“Without a huge effort by all of us, we are heading for the moment in Gwent where our NHS will be overwhelmed too.
“We won’t have enough hospital beds for everyone who needs life-saving ventilators and intensive care.”
She urged people to stay at home to give the health board “essential time” to bring more doctors and nurses into the workforce, as well as extra ventilators and additional intensive care beds.
Jérôme Salomon has announced the latest coronavirus figures. There are now 25,233 confirmed cases in France 1,331 deaths, of which 86% were people aged over 70 years. The death rate rose by 231 in 24 hours. These are hospital deaths only, not those in retirement homes or outside hospitals.
There are currently 11,539 people in French hospitals with the coronavirus, 2,827 in intensive care.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12ZhdYCpJ90
It makes a massive difference to the easing off strategy if we know that 10% or 60% have had Corona.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdZtMgpxnPI
Why wont you engage with rating the Government effort rather than put a smiley face on a stupid comment that BJO thinks Boris should make 3 million in his kitchen.
I don't think the government are dragging their heels on this at all, but you seem to be suggesting that they are somehow.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/25/nhs-nightingale-video-shows-scale-of-london-coronavirus-hospital-excel
If anything I am surprised at how slow they are in dealing with some of the basics - PPE and ramping up the testing rate in particular. Is it lack of domestic suppliers that is the problem. Definitely something for the Public Inquiry to look at.
Whoever was responsible for that oversight ought not to go near a future planning exercise imo
For all the Boris cheerleaders on PB this is not a party political point as the Labour Party have disappeared from sight.
I think he's very poor in all honesty.
Glad the impression I'd gained from others about your sphere of work seems true to you too. On the other hand it seems you are involved in the "hard" end (modelling etc presumably) whereas I think the apocalyptic types - whether the XR fringes or the Deep Adaptation types - in academia are generally more from the "soft" end, free from any expectation people can crunch through the physics or coding. Climate change is always going to require interdisciplinary/multidisciplinary approaches (and there's even some politics in the choice of inter vs multi!). Specialists in politics or sociology of climate change might help unlock what it takes to secure public buy-in and get interventions enacted. Economists, perhaps somewhere in the middle of hard and soft, can model possible emissions trajectories as well as the cost-effectiveness and equity considerations of the interventions. The interplay of so many different facets of society and the environment draws in people with a "systems approach" background, including soft systems methodology.
I think in those kinds of areas there's more chance of people bringing their ideology into their research. That cuts both ways of course, I've met plenty of people who thought the Stern Review was too weak because Stern was too married to "conventional" economic thinking (about value of natural capital, discount rates etc, all of which sat on essentially ethical assumptions and perspectives) but on the flip side it's no secret that the majority of people who go into academia, especially those who do so "to make a difference", are left-wing. The author's values probably permeate rather less through a paper modelling radiative forcing, rather more through an economic cost-benefit analysis and a lot more if you're applying a symbolic interactionist autoethnographic approach to analyse the "activist identity" formation of an environmentalist. That's without getting onto papers on climate change from the perspective of grounded theory, critical theory, ecofeminism or queer ecology... in many qualitative methodologies the principle of "reflexivity" means it can even be bad form to "leave your ideology at home". I guess those papers rarely appear in journals you review for or even read, but there's plenty of people making a living from that kind of research output.
Obviously you know your field far better than I do, but my impression is that researchers on the "hard" side often see "public engagement" in terms of basic science education, STEM initiatives for kids, and attempts to debunk a persistent minority of climate skeptics - but ironically much of that is too technical for most of public to want to engage with! There are climate eggheads sitting on governmental advisory panels and so on, but with what ultimate influence? (Presumably more than it sounds I'm granting credit for, but if so largely invisibly.) Whereas I get the impression people from the "soft" side have done well at getting into civil society orgs, social media channels, the climate activist base, etc. As you said this is the side a lot of the momentum for change is being driven from! But if they (or a significant fraction thereof) start singing from a different hymn sheet about the science, there are risks there. Hopefully it doesn't all end with the public tuning out as fewer find the promised apocalypse credible - or alternatively, now treat it as inevitable so pointless to resist! - nor with climate modellers derided as corporate shills for refusing to believe Western civilisation will collapse within ten years.
So part of me wishes the top scientists from the "hard" end got more engaged and spoke more loudly - it seems wrong for them to have less voice than some academically fringe professor (albeit funded and at a reputable university) who can rally a network of thousands of supporters globally with every blog entry about their civilisation's impending doom. And yet another part of me holds back - do the nuanced, cautious views of an expert lack that vital capacity to resonate, enthuse or scare their audience into action? Particularly when they admit what they don't know? And would an activist-scientist lose public trust through their apparent loss of objectivity? A hard balance to reach, I think, but surely at a minimum we should be hearing more from the most eminent experts than from teenage schoolkids?
Her days are numbered i predict SKS will sack her before the 2020 Conference
https://www.sporcle.com/games/teedslaststand/leaders-of-millions
And it's OK to see numbers rise after removing the lockdown. We just need to see the numbers increase slowly. If it goes from 10 cases/day to 20/day over the course of two weeks - and that's the doubling pace, then that's OK.
If it goes 10/day to 20/day to 40/day to 80/day over the course of two weeks, then that's not OK.
Basic common sense would suggest that figure has to be too low - just checked and per ONS the figure is actually 5.03 million.
So she's got the most simple, basic information wrong about the very question she asked the PM today.
It's absolutely hopeless - but it's a familiar story - anything requiring any attention to detail and / or involving numbers and the chances are even supposedly reputable people in high profile positions will get it wrong.
https://aviationhumor.net/journalists-guide-to-aircraft-identification/
The people running the circus are so corrupt, if he does win Starmer needs to drain the swamp.
At a time of national crisis we have no opposition.
Four people walking, two with dogs, two without. All at least 20m apart.
Riverford delivery included sausages. Which was nice.
Running low on milk, but we should be getting some on Friday.
"Coronavirus crisis could cause a loneliness epidemic in older adults: Study shows cutting off over-50s from transport, retail and leisure facilities increases feelings of isolation and depression"
No shit Sherlock...
Primary schools, restaurants and bars open encouraging people to go outside"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8151111/Swedish-people-disregarding-Covid-19-lockdown-going-pint.html
The top nominated BAME NEC bloke and 2 other highly nominated Left Wing NEC Candidates all been suspended in last 7 days. All 3 were Momentum Candidates.
SKS will rid the Party of Milne and others in Corbyns team, I would be surprised if Formby doesnt go too. He will win on first ballot. I am looking forward to seeing how he performs he really does have a golden pass with the Virus
It's not really kicked off north of the Alps.