Mr. Pagan, the economic side is looking poor, currently.
Obviously this is a medical problem but the economics have to be considered too, and so far they've been neglected. Can't blame the CMO or CSO for that, it's not their line of business.
The merging of 10 and 11's advisory teams may make it harder for Sunak, were he so minded, to act independently and just announce things without running it past the PM.
I think the most concerning economic aspect is that this is pretty obvious stuff. We were discussing how you handle matters of this nature some time ago. And whilst the PM's rightly been thinking of the medical side, he does have a Chanellor, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Business Secretary.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
Strolled out today to see what real life looked like today. Popped in to Co-Op and Sainsbury's, full-ish shelves, no loo roll. Went to a local independent. Plenty of loo roll, as I walked in one old woman was picking up a bag of must have been six dozen packs (two to a pack) of it. Upon polite questioning it turns out she had ordered specially in advance from the shopkeeper. He was otherwise rationing people to one pack per person.
As according to Murphy's Law, last week our fridge freezer died. Took milk out of the fridge on Friday and it felt room temperature despite the fridge saying it was 2 degrees. Turned the fridge off and on again and it now displayed 20 degrees as its temperature, absolutely all our food was ruined.
Got the fridge sorted out yesterday so went shopping today to replenish stocks expecting to look like a panic buyer (since needing to refill everything we'd have in the fridge) but our local supermarkets already been cleaned out. Large supermarket but the chicken aisle was completely empty (besides the £15 organic chickens even now nobody wants to touch) and almost all the refrigerated aisles were empty too.
Managed to get some milk and some fresh veg and meats that I wouldn't necessarily normally buy so now to plan some meals with what we were able to get rather than what we'd normally choose.
It is no problem when you buy quality organic, all the plebs stick to the cheap muck, stick to quality and there are no shortages apart from Dettol wipes.
America saying they are going to mail cheques out to american people....whats our government doing?
Hopefully the minimum it needs to. I know Laissez Faire economics is about as popular as a dose of cat aids at the moment, but genuinely the economies that will recover faster will be the ones that let as much of the economy do what the economy does as possible.
It's a pretty big ask of all the youngsters to severely curtail their careers, socialising and general living standards for the sake of the oldies. I hope the people who are prone to badmouth millennials remember this and express their gratitude to them!
If the government does not come up with a proper package to support the whole economy this afternoon - somewhere north of 300 billion - this is the week the government loses the next election, deservedly so.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
Such certainty, such self confidence, where has she been all our lives, what would we do without her ........
Here's a thought - why not show some consideration for the pressure thr Chancellor is under and wait till he's spoken - otherwise a cynical person might wonder about the motives behind Cyclefree's endless whingeing.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
That’s a really unfair comparison.
Neville Chamberlain had a long and distinguished career in government including two spells as Chancellor.
If the government does not come up with a proper package to support the whole economy this afternoon - somewhere north of 300 billion - this is the week the government loses the next election, deservedly so.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
Such certainty, such self confidence, where has she been all our lives, what would we do without her ........
The French government gets it. So does the Norwegian one. But not ours - apparently.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I think 20,000 figure has to be for this "season".
But if it is 20,000 this Spring, 20,000 in the autumn, 20,000 next winter, 20,000 next Spring, and so on, and thereafter maybe slowly reducing due to immunity, vaccines, antivirals, then that is tolerable. Painful, but tolerable, and society will endure pretty much intact.
I am feeling more optimistic today than for a while.
My big fear is all the news from Italy is worse. Their death rates are really high as both the system crashed, but even among those who are getting ICU treatment.
We really have to hope that best practice cuts this down really quickly. We all want to know what Germany is doing, it has to be more than just top notch ICU, as the Italian Professor on Ch4 said even among those getting this under him in Italy are running at I believe he said 40% and getting worse.
Just watching the debate in the Scottish Parliament on schooling. (Well, someone has to.) Excellent point from Johann Lamont about how important schools are well beyond their educational function - for care, as a safe place, community hub etc. Closing them is a real dilemma and brings real costs. John Swinney, the Cab Sec for Education, very gratefully responded to her for pointing this out. He is struggling with this as will Gavin Williamson south of the border (and equivalents in Wales and NI). Tough calls and those demanding instant closure need to bear factors like this in mind.
If the government does not come up with a proper package to support the whole economy this afternoon - somewhere north of 300 billion - this is the week the government loses the next election, deservedly so.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
Such certainty, such self confidence, where has she been all our lives, what would we do without her ........
The French government gets it. So does the Norwegian one. But not ours - apparently.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I can't remember the exact figures he mentioned, but he made it really clear that at least in Italy the mortality rate of those in ICU with this is way higher than normal.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
That’s a really unfair comparison.
Neville Chamberlain had a long and distinguished career in government including two spells as Chancellor.
Indeed Chamberlain was masterly as CoE, it was when he moved next door it started to go wrong.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I heard today that the mortality rate in Italy from Covid-19 for younger people (I think it was younger than age 50) is <0.2%.
America saying they are going to mail cheques out to american people....whats our government doing?
Hopefully the minimum it needs to. I know Laissez Faire economics is about as popular as a dose of cat aids at the moment, but genuinely the economies that will recover faster will be the ones that let as much of the economy do what the economy does as possible.
Normally I would agree however these arent normal times, we have to many businesses go south and people unemployed and the economy will be shafted as not enough money will be circulating to get things going at any great pace due to those still in work being bled dry to pay uc and housing benefit
If the government does not come up with a proper package to support the whole economy this afternoon - somewhere north of 300 billion - this is the week the government loses the next election, deservedly so.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
Such certainty, such self confidence, where has she been all our lives, what would we do without her ........
The French government gets it. So does the Norwegian one. But not ours - apparently.
Boris has been getting it. Carrie’s news confirms...
Oh sorry...did you mean, ‘understands the situation?’ No, he doesn’t do that.
In fairness though, I very much doubt if anyone does. At this moment it looks likely that the response is going to do far more damage, and cause far more deaths, than the actual disease. That applies to France as much as to us. Until this is over, it’s going to be hard to say who got it right.
In an ideal world IMO with a blank cheque the government should do targetted support for businesses especially in the worst affected industries (tourism, hospitality etc) and 'helicopter money' for everyone.
And it should just print the money to pay for all that. Something I would never normally endorse but this is not a normal time. If inflation takes off then just deal with that later - inflation later is less of a problem than this crisis now.
As according to Murphy's Law, last week our fridge freezer died. Took milk out of the fridge on Friday and it felt room temperature despite the fridge saying it was 2 degrees. Turned the fridge off and on again and it now displayed 20 degrees as its temperature, absolutely all our food was ruined.
Got the fridge sorted out yesterday so went shopping today to replenish stocks expecting to look like a panic buyer (since needing to refill everything we'd have in the fridge) but our local supermarkets already been cleaned out. Large supermarket but the chicken aisle was completely empty (besides the £15 organic chickens even now nobody wants to touch) and almost all the refrigerated aisles were empty too.
Managed to get some milk and some fresh veg and meats that I wouldn't necessarily normally buy so now to plan some meals with what we were able to get rather than what we'd normally choose.
Went to a supermarket this morning, it's not just loo roll and soap dispensers that are being cleared now, all sorts of basic foodstuffs and household goods are drying up. Rightly or wrongly people are stocking up, and for many it is rightly when they have been told to hide for 12 weeks.
Also this afternoon I've been trying to help a relative with WFH, they have a nice Surface Laptop, but they want a monitor/webcam for video conferencing if they are going to be working from home for months. Stock of such kit is running dry too, and delivery times are weeks away in many cases.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I heard today that the mortality rate in Italy from Covid-19 for younger people (I think it was younger than age 50) is <0.2%.</p>
Even though youngsters who get it serious have a very low mortality rate, they are in ICU for many weeks.
Fascinating and possibly epochal, depending on how far the measures go, how long they last, and who they're for. Who would have thought Trump might be the first major western leader to start to overturn the economic orthodoxies of the last 40 years, beyond his limited nationalist trade wars, of the last few years.
The total number of deaths from coronavirus in England now stands at 67, a rise of 14 on Monday's figures, the NHS says. A statement from NHS England said the patients were aged between 45 and 93 years old and had underlying health conditions.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
That’s a really unfair comparison.
Neville Chamberlain had a long and distinguished career in government including two spells as Chancellor.
Indeed Chamberlain was masterly as CoE.
I wouldn’t go *that* far. But he was certainly a capable one, who faced near-unprecedented challenges and somehow dealt with them in a way that eluded almost every other democratic politician on the planet.
If the government does not come up with a proper package to support the whole economy this afternoon - somewhere north of 300 billion - this is the week the government loses the next election, deservedly so.
Piddly £3k grants and 14 days SSP at £70 simply won’t cut it. Today is the day we learn whether Boris really is a Churchill or just a second rate Chamberlain. And whether Sunak understands the economy beyond what he learnt at a hedge fund.
Such certainty, such self confidence, where has she been all our lives, what would we do without her ........
The French government gets it. So does the Norwegian one. But not ours - apparently.
Jesus - you can't help yourself can you - wait and see what the poor bloke says ffs.
America saying they are going to mail cheques out to american people....whats our government doing?
Hopefully the minimum it needs to. I know Laissez Faire economics is about as popular as a dose of cat aids at the moment, but genuinely the economies that will recover faster will be the ones that let as much of the economy do what the economy does as possible.
Does the 1983 in your username refer to the year you are stuck in?
Strolled out today to see what real life looked like today. Popped in to Co-Op and Sainsbury's, full-ish shelves, no loo roll. Went to a local independent. Plenty of loo roll, as I walked in one old woman was picking up a bag of must have been six dozen packs (two to a pack) of it. Upon polite questioning it turns out she had ordered specially in advance from the shopkeeper. He was otherwise rationing people to one pack per person.
Was she a hero or a villain?
I'm leaning hero.
Surprised to hear you interrogating old ladies about their loo roll habits though.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I can't remember the exact figures he mentioned, but he made it really clear that at least in Italy the mortality rate of those in ICU with this is way higher than normal.
I'm sure way higher than normal is correct but we don't start at zero for over 70s and the numbers must get progressively worse percentage wise
Why do you think it will be as high as 80K deaths? Say we have 20K deaths this wave (high end) I'm curious as to where the 80K comes from...
I'm being cautious.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
Why do you think it will be as high as 80K deaths? Say we have 20K deaths this wave (high end) I'm curious as to where the 80K comes from...
I'm being cautious.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
America saying they are going to mail cheques out to american people....whats our government doing?
Hopefully the minimum it needs to. I know Laissez Faire economics is about as popular as a dose of cat aids at the moment, but genuinely the economies that will recover faster will be the ones that let as much of the economy do what the economy does as possible.
Does the 1983 in your username refer to the year you are stuck in?
Nothing wrong with 1983. For some of us, it was a truly fabulous year. I did a great many things for the first time in 1983, which all contributed greatly to making me the well-rounded, sophisticated and totally loveable individual I am now.
I think 20,000 figure has to be for this "season".
But if it is 20,000 this Spring, 20,000 in the autumn, 20,000 next winter, 20,000 next Spring, and so on, and thereafter maybe slowly reducing due to immunity, vaccines, antivirals, then that is tolerable. Painful, but tolerable, and society will endure pretty much intact.
I am feeling more optimistic today than for a while.
My big fear is all the news from Italy is worse. Their death rates are really high as both the system crashed, but even among those who are getting ICU treatment.
We really have to hope that best practice cuts this down really quickly. We all want to know what Germany is doing, it has to be more than just top notch ICU, as the Italian Professor on Ch4 said even among those getting this under him in Italy are running at I believe he said 40% and getting worse.
The news from Italy is bad because you're looking at data from two weeks ago, before there was any clamp down.
And Germany has really low death rates because they're picking up lots of asymptomatic individuals.
New case numbers from Italy are going to start collapsing at the end of this week.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I can't remember the exact figures he mentioned, but he made it really clear that at least in Italy the mortality rate of those in ICU with this is way higher than normal.
I'm sure way higher than normal is correct but we don't start at zero for over 70s and the numbers must get progressively worse percentage wise
Sure, but the big thing appears to be even those getting good treatment in Italy, they follow standard operating procedure for people with similar conditions and it doesn't do much to improve the state they are in, where as a decent percentage would usually react positively to it.
The total number of deaths from coronavirus in England now stands at 67, a rise of 14 on Monday's figures, the NHS says. A statement from NHS England said the patients were aged between 45 and 93 years old and had underlying health conditions.
45...ekkk...thats not old at all.
No but we don't know what sort of underlying medical condition he had. Assuming Scotland, Wales and NI do not add substantially to that figure, then it is fewer recorded deaths today than yesterday.
He said so far they were "looking at it" and will be "discussing it with Republican lawmakers".
He made clear they would be doing it, just looking at the details at who gets it and how much its going to be.
While normally an advocate of free markets I think there is an economic tipping point where once you go past it the climb out of the hole will be slow and painful due to too much GDP being needed just to keep people fed and homed
Whispers among the Lobby pack suggest the package will be unlike any ever seen before: blowing past the £133bn paid to bail out the banks during the financial crisis.
The total number of deaths from coronavirus in England now stands at 67, a rise of 14 on Monday's figures, the NHS says. A statement from NHS England said the patients were aged between 45 and 93 years old and had underlying health conditions.
45...ekkk...thats not old at all.
No but we don't know what sort of underlying medical condition he had. Assuming Scotland, Wales and NI do not add substantially to that figure, then it is fewer recorded deaths today than yesterday.
One of the younger deaths was a very large guy with diabetes and, as I recall, some other health issues as well.
He said so far they were "looking at it" and will be "discussing it with Republican lawmakers".
He made clear they would be doing it, just looking at the details at who gets it and how much its going to be.
While normally an advocate of free markets I think there is an economic tipping point where once you go past it the climb out of the hole will be slow and painful due to too much GDP being needed just to keep people fed and homed
Indeed. This is a matter of national defence. Normal assumptions go out the window.
Why do you think it will be as high as 80K deaths? Say we have 20K deaths this wave (high end) I'm curious as to where the 80K comes from...
I'm being cautious.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
And the world economy spaffed up the wall finally and forever.
Whispers among the Lobby pack suggest the package will be unlike any ever seen before: blowing past the £133bn paid to bail out the banks during the financial crisis.
Just watching the debate in the Scottish Parliament on schooling. (Well, someone has to.) Excellent point from Johann Lamont about how important schools are well beyond their educational function - for care, as a safe place, community hub etc. Closing them is a real dilemma and brings real costs. John Swinney, the Cab Sec for Education, very gratefully responded to her for pointing this out. He is struggling with this as will Gavin Williamson south of the border (and equivalents in Wales and NI). Tough calls and those demanding instant closure need to bear factors like this in mind.
We will open as long as we possibly can, we've only closed once in a decade for a very extreme weather event.
However, the nature of this means we have to issue daily confirmation that we are able to operate with safe staffing levels.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I heard today that the mortality rate in Italy from Covid-19 for younger people (I think it was younger than age 50) is <0.2%.</p>
Even though youngsters who get it serious have a very low mortality rate, they are in ICU for many weeks.
Yes, 5% rate of ICU in the under 40's. A considerable percentage need a lot more than hot broth.
Part of the high mortality in the older groups may be the result of a selective admission policy, but I don't think that the full story. All UK deaths are 59+, and we are not yet overloaded.
Whispers among the Lobby pack suggest the package will be unlike any ever seen before: blowing past the £133bn paid to bail out the banks during the financial crisis.
He said so far they were "looking at it" and will be "discussing it with Republican lawmakers".
He made clear they would be doing it, just looking at the details at who gets it and how much its going to be.
I watched it live and the cynic in me immediately imagined a scenario where the poor sods got a grand each and tax payers got some kind of tax repayment amounting to a multiple of that, but, again, that's the cynic in me.
(Long time lurker resurfacing) Re school closures, surely the approach is to make attendance optional. We kept our kid at home lately to help with social distancing. Not a big problem as wife and I can WFH, and we even have granny doing lessons over Skype. But I get that this is difficult for many people.
So just say please keep children at home if you can, and we will provide homework packs. But send to school if you need to.
I went to the local pub for lunch, to show some solidarity. It was deserted.
Just had a forlorn message from my personal trainer. Poor girl she is self employed and has worked hard to build up a client base.
I'm going to keep at it to try to help her.
This is a particular disaster for personal trainers, music teachers, beauticians and so on, many of whom are seeing highly successful businesses collapse because of their very personal services. I am very doubtful whether the government has the wit to put together a financial package to help such self-employed tradespeople.
Why can’t it do what the Norwegian government is proposing for its self-employed citizens?
Why do you think it will be as high as 80K deaths? Say we have 20K deaths this wave (high end) I'm curious as to where the 80K comes from...
I'm being cautious.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
20,000 is a good flu season
The damage that is being done to businesses and individuals, economically, is catastrophic. People`s retirements are being ruined, children`s job opportunities trashed, everyone`s freedoms binned. It`s quite possible that there ends up being more suicides in the 40-60 cohort than deaths by the virus for that cohort. Utter madness.
The total number of deaths from coronavirus in England now stands at 67, a rise of 14 on Monday's figures, the NHS says. A statement from NHS England said the patients were aged between 45 and 93 years old and had underlying health conditions.
45...ekkk...thats not old at all.
No but we don't know what sort of underlying medical condition he had. Assuming Scotland, Wales and NI do not add substantially to that figure, then it is fewer recorded deaths today than yesterday.
One of the younger deaths was a very large guy with diabetes and, as I recall, some other health issues as well.
Although the death rate amongst children generally is vanishingly small I pray that none who are, for example, undergoing chemotherapy catch this.
Why do you think it will be as high as 80K deaths? Say we have 20K deaths this wave (high end) I'm curious as to where the 80K comes from...
I'm being cautious.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
And the world economy spaffed up the wall finally and forever.
This is exactly what my life feels like at the moment. When I spend time on here or on Twitter I feel like gathering my family around a hand grenade and ending it all, but when I spend time in work or in public everything is completely normal. Work was as stressful and normal today as it always is. Everybody in, nobody mentioning it. Bizarre.
He said so far they were "looking at it" and will be "discussing it with Republican lawmakers".
He made clear they would be doing it, just looking at the details at who gets it and how much its going to be.
I watched it live and the cynic in me immediately imagined a scenario where the poor sods got a grand each and tax payers got some kind of tax repayment amounting to a multiple of that, but, again, that's the cynic in me.
If by tax payers you mean businesses and employers that's exactly what we need.
Whispers among the Lobby pack suggest the package will be unlike any ever seen before: blowing past the £133bn paid to bail out the banks during the financial crisis.
America saying they are going to mail cheques out to american people....whats our government doing?
Hopefully the minimum it needs to. I know Laissez Faire economics is about as popular as a dose of cat aids at the moment, but genuinely the economies that will recover faster will be the ones that let as much of the economy do what the economy does as possible.
Does the 1983 in your username refer to the year you are stuck in?
Nothing wrong with 1983. For some of us, it was a truly fabulous year. I did a great many things for the first time in 1983, which all contributed greatly to making me the well-rounded, sophisticated and totally loveable individual I am now.
You can't tease us like that, and leave us dangling ....
Must make a point in my defence re my buying a HUGE amount of rice today.
I went to a Chinese supermarket that supplies the restaurant trade (which is dropping off). As I deduced they had loads of 20 kg sacks available.
So I was NOT depriving the needy of any.
You must really love rice.....personally I have sent the day ordering treats, as if we go into lockdown, the least I can look forward to is a nice bar of chocolate.
Comfort for the youngsters: twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1239951525729927171?s=19 9% of cases in health workers a bit worrying though.
The Italian professor on CH4 news last night said he was taken aback at the mortality rate with the oldies and it will get higher. In addition to obviously system crash, he said all the normal standard practices they have employed for those in ICU have been generally ineffective, so even those given ICU treatment were dying at an incredibly high rate.
What would be the mortality rates for non Covid19 deaths?
I can't remember the exact figures he mentioned, but he made it really clear that at least in Italy the mortality rate of those in ICU with this is way higher than normal.
I'm sure way higher than normal is correct but we don't start at zero for over 70s and the numbers must get progressively worse percentage wise
Sure, but the big thing appears to be even those getting good treatment in Italy, they follow standard operating procedure for people with similar conditions and it doesn't do much to improve the state they are in, where as a decent percentage would usually react positively to it.
The percentage of deaths related to age must get worse until you get to zero 'cos they're all dead
Whispers among the Lobby pack suggest the package will be unlike any ever seen before: blowing past the £133bn paid to bail out the banks during the financial crisis.
From the Telegraph. Sounds like it'll be big.
You mean Peston could be wrong?
If Peston told me the sun was going to rise in the East in the morning I'd think we'd be in for the most bizarre cosmic event ever overnight to ensure that didn't happen.
The government should conduct an honest public information campaign to the effect that most goods, including food, come in by sea or air freight rather than air passenger cargo, and so are so far unaffected by closedowns. This would reduce the current peaks in demand to some extent.
Reason for my "panic" buying - e.g. HUGE sack of rice today - is not the fear that stuff will run out. I don't think it will. I think the shelves will be full again quite soon. No, it's that I live in London - the epicentre - and as the epidemic rips over the next few weeks it will get less and less safe to go to places (like supermarkets) which are full of people. Therefore buy lots of stuff now in order not to have to go out shopping later.
That's true. There's many reasons for so-called "panic" buying, and as I said a few days ago the very idea itself is often illusory and more convenient for authorities than individuals, but I do think that fear of international shutdown and imports is one of several things contributing to the high demand at the moment.
Not so much "panic" buying - more people are "hunker down" buying. Go out once a week to top up, otherwise, keep the hell off the mean streets of Dodge...
Yes. The problem with the idea of "panic buying", as I said last week, is that what appears irrational one moment can easily be rational the next. The condemnatory tone can also actually make people more self-righteous and aggressive to each other in supermarkets and make the social order situation worse. Stressing the need for everyone to manage their demand in order for everyone to benefit, rather than slating people for what may be individually good reasons for buying more than usual, and pointing out any positive factorson why a steady and continuous supply is still guaranteed, will cut more ice with people.
Buying in slightly larger than usual quantities to reduce the frequency of trips to the supermarket is not just okay - it is commendable.
On the other hand, there is a clear need to state loudly that it is selfish for young or healthier, less vulnerable people to buy several months' worth of supplies for themselves, or for their young and healthy families.
Of course, when talking to or about individuals, we should recognise that the individual may have circumstances that we don't know about. That's always the case.
But the problem is everyone is intertwined in this context. Because a large proportion of the population is being ordered to stay at home, for instance, a considerable proportion of the demand, bought by young or healthier, less vulnerable people, will be for them. Many will also consider their children a vulnerable group. No one knows the details of everyone else's circumstances, ofcourse, so bitterness and acrimony ensues.
Of course! That would come under the category of an individual having their own circumstances. As someone with an elderly mother, who has severe asthma, whose husband (my father) died last month, and who lives in a different country to all her children, I understand this better than most! I travelled back from Ireland yesterday, having just got in a second trip in three weeks, before the benefits outweighed the risks, and it troubles me greatly that she won't see any of her family for months. I am somewhat reassured that she will be looked after in rural Ireland far better than she would in England.
It is people like her that are harmed by those who panic-buy without justification. And to be clear, bulk-buying for one's children, unless they have a relevant health condition, is no better than bulk-buying for oneself. Having children is used as an excuse for selfish behaviour far too often as it is.
Why do you think it will be as high as 80K deaths? Say we have 20K deaths this wave (high end) I'm curious as to where the 80K comes from...
I'm being cautious.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
And the world economy spaffed up the wall finally and forever.
This is exactly what my life feels like at the moment. When I spend time on here or on Twitter I feel like gathering my family around a hand grenade and ending it all, but when I spend time in work or in public everything is completely normal. Work was as stressful and normal today as it always is. Everybody in, nobody mentioning it. Bizarre.
It`s because people understand that we have another endemic virus to live with. When I asked my barber about the virus and how concerned he is he shrugged and said "It is what it is. We`re all going to get it aren`t we".
America saying they are going to mail cheques out to american people....whats our government doing?
Hopefully the minimum it needs to. I know Laissez Faire economics is about as popular as a dose of cat aids at the moment, but genuinely the economies that will recover faster will be the ones that let as much of the economy do what the economy does as possible.
Does the 1983 in your username refer to the year you are stuck in?
Nothing wrong with 1983. For some of us, it was a truly fabulous year. I did a great many things for the first time in 1983, which all contributed greatly to making me the well-rounded, sophisticated and totally loveable individual I am now.
You can't tease us like that, and leave us dangling ....
I told my ex something like that. Didn’t stop her.
Why do you think it will be as high as 80K deaths? Say we have 20K deaths this wave (high end) I'm curious as to where the 80K comes from...
I'm being cautious.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
And the world economy spaffed up the wall finally and forever.
Is it completely beyond the realm of imagination that every country could get together after the crisis and say 'Whatever your national debt is, cut the last two zeroes off it and pretend it never happened'?
(Long time lurker resurfacing) Re school closures, surely the approach is to make attendance optional. We kept our kid at home lately to help with social distancing. Not a big problem as wife and I can WFH, and we even have granny doing lessons over Skype. But I get that this is difficult for many people.
So just say please keep children at home if you can, and we will provide homework packs. But send to school if you need to.
My lad's school is telling me to send him in unless he shows any sign of illness.
Strolled out today to see what real life looked like today. Popped in to Co-Op and Sainsbury's, full-ish shelves, no loo roll. Went to a local independent. Plenty of loo roll, as I walked in one old woman was picking up a bag of must have been six dozen packs (two to a pack) of it. Upon polite questioning it turns out she had ordered specially in advance from the shopkeeper. He was otherwise rationing people to one pack per person.
Was she a hero or a villain?
I'm leaning hero.
Surprised to hear you interrogating old ladies about their loo roll habits though.
The total number of deaths from coronavirus in England now stands at 67, a rise of 14 on Monday's figures, the NHS says. A statement from NHS England said the patients were aged between 45 and 93 years old and had underlying health conditions.
45...ekkk...thats not old at all.
No but we don't know what sort of underlying medical condition he had. Assuming Scotland, Wales and NI do not add substantially to that figure, then it is fewer recorded deaths today than yesterday.
One of the younger deaths was a very large guy with diabetes and, as I recall, some other health issues as well.
Obesity seems to be a major risk factor (though obviously correlated with other conditions). Shut down may be a very good time to live off our bellies!
I think we've reached the point of a once in a lifetime emergency that the deficit doesn't matter for now. Do what needs to be done, print what needs to be printed and deal with the consequences afterwards.
Whispers among the Lobby pack suggest the package will be unlike any ever seen before: blowing past the £133bn paid to bail out the banks during the financial crisis.
Whispers among the Lobby pack suggest the package will be unlike any ever seen before: blowing past the £133bn paid to bail out the banks during the financial crisis.
From the Telegraph. Sounds like it'll be big.
Oh no Cyclefree's gonna be well peed off.
No. I will be delighted. First, because it will help my daughter - and helping her is my top priority at the moment - even more than my health.
And second because it would mean that we have a PM who has risen to the occasion, which is what this country needs.
I wrote this header in part to try in a small way to get across why last week’s measures were simply not sufficient.
So get back in your box with your sour sniping. My immediate and extended family are at real risk, both economically and from a health perspective. We are no different from many others.
I really hope the government will do the right thing.
Comments
Obviously this is a medical problem but the economics have to be considered too, and so far they've been neglected. Can't blame the CMO or CSO for that, it's not their line of business.
The merging of 10 and 11's advisory teams may make it harder for Sunak, were he so minded, to act independently and just announce things without running it past the PM.
I think the most concerning economic aspect is that this is pretty obvious stuff. We were discussing how you handle matters of this nature some time ago. And whilst the PM's rightly been thinking of the medical side, he does have a Chanellor, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Business Secretary.
Neville Chamberlain had a long and distinguished career in government including two spells as Chancellor.
as both the system crashed, but even among those who are getting ICU treatment.
We really have to hope that best practice cuts this down really quickly. We all want to know what Germany is doing, it has to be more than just top notch ICU, as the Italian Professor on Ch4 said even among those getting this under him in Italy are running at I believe he said 40% and getting worse.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51921683
scroll down to 16:20
Excellent point from Johann Lamont about how important schools are well beyond their educational function - for care, as a safe place, community hub etc. Closing them is a real dilemma and brings real costs.
John Swinney, the Cab Sec for Education, very gratefully responded to her for pointing this out. He is struggling with this as will Gavin Williamson south of the border (and equivalents in Wales and NI).
Tough calls and those demanding instant closure need to bear factors like this in mind.
Oh sorry...did you mean, ‘understands the situation?’ No, he doesn’t do that.
In fairness though, I very much doubt if anyone does. At this moment it looks likely that the response is going to do far more damage, and cause far more deaths, than the actual disease. That applies to France as much as to us. Until this is over, it’s going to be hard to say who got it right.
And it should just print the money to pay for all that. Something I would never normally endorse but this is not a normal time. If inflation takes off then just deal with that later - inflation later is less of a problem than this crisis now.
Also this afternoon I've been trying to help a relative with WFH, they have a nice Surface Laptop, but they want a monitor/webcam for video conferencing if they are going to be working from home for months. Stock of such kit is running dry too, and delivery times are weeks away in many cases.
Things are uncertain and I don't envy anyone who has to make decisions over this.
All we can be sure of is that Piers Morgan is an imbecile.
45...ekkk...thats not old at all.
Surprised to hear you interrogating old ladies about their loo roll habits though.
Hope you didn't upset her.
Even if it isn’t.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
It's weird this board.
Yesterday evening, I was arguing with @WhisperingOracle and @eadric about whether this was going to be as bad as the World Wars (only with the million plus deaths all the deaths being in one year).
Now we're talking about perhaps 20,000 deaths - or a rather bad flu season.
20,000 is a good flu season
I went to a Chinese supermarket that supplies the restaurant trade (which is dropping off). As I deduced they had loads of 20 kg sacks available.
So I was NOT depriving the needy of any.
And Germany has really low death rates because they're picking up lots of asymptomatic individuals.
New case numbers from Italy are going to start collapsing at the end of this week.
From the Telegraph. Sounds like it'll be big.
However, the nature of this means we have to issue daily confirmation that we are able to operate with safe staffing levels.
Part of the high mortality in the older groups may be the result of a selective admission policy, but I don't think that the full story. All UK deaths are 59+, and we are not yet overloaded.
Re school closures, surely the approach is to make attendance optional. We kept our kid at home lately to help with social distancing. Not a big problem as wife and I can WFH, and we even have granny doing lessons over Skype. But I get that this is difficult for many people.
So just say please keep children at home if you can, and we will provide homework packs. But send to school if you need to.
The damage that is being done to businesses and individuals, economically, is catastrophic. People`s retirements are being ruined, children`s job opportunities trashed, everyone`s freedoms binned. It`s quite possible that there ends up being more suicides in the 40-60 cohort than deaths by the virus for that cohort. Utter madness.
It is people like her that are harmed by those who panic-buy without justification. And to be clear, bulk-buying for one's children, unless they have a relevant health condition, is no better than bulk-buying for oneself. Having children is used as an excuse for selfish behaviour far too often as it is.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122453/British-mother-Nazanin-Zaghari-Ratcliffe-RELEASED-Iranian-prison-two-weeks.html
Shut down may be a very good time to live off our bellies!
Manchester Arena bombing: Hashem Abedi guilty of 22 murders
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-51926162
So when he is he going to get out of bed and come to this press conference?
Further action coming now.
And second because it would mean that we have a PM who has risen to the occasion, which is what this country needs.
I wrote this header in part to try in a small way to get across why last week’s measures were simply not sufficient.
So get back in your box with your sour sniping. My immediate and extended family are at real risk, both economically and from a health perspective. We are no different from many others.
I really hope the government will do the right thing.
And we thought Brown was profligate...