We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.
So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.
I thought he said early this week that there wouldn't be an official announcement of Stage II but we were effectively already there?
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
The honest truth is, I don’t know my London boroughs that well. I have spent a lot of time in central London, and a lot of time in Kew and Richmond, but I don’t like the place much and I haven’t really explored it.
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
I was being a pedant - it didn’t undermine your case at all...
Oh turn on HYUFD again, you really are a pompous arse sometimes.
And for the point of property prices your originally pedant is utterly irrelevant, property prices are measured by borough so which area of Kensington and Chelsea it happened to be in is completely irrelevant in terms of comparing property prices with Doncaster
He said Kensington.
And illustrated it with a house in Chelsea.
There is a reason why it is called the RB of K *AND* C
And I’m not turning on you. But if you feel there is a consistency of comments have a think about why...
Yes and Kensington is in the royal borough of Kensington and Chelsea, so whether it is in Kensington or Chelsea makes no difference as for the purposes of house price calculations done by borough they are both the same area.
I am sure there are some areas of Doncaster more expensive than others too but for the purpose of house price calculation they are all included in the one area
We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.
So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.
I thought he said early this week that there wouldn't be an official announcement of Stage II but we were effectively already there?
Well it was quite woolly. I think what we will here this week is the move to oldies stay away from the public as much as possible, home working if you can, sports off etc.
We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.
So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.
I thought he said early this week that there wouldn't be an official announcement of Stage II but we were effectively already there?
We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.
So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.
So far the objective of slowing this down is working. Long may that continue.
We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.
So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.
I thought he said early this week that there wouldn't be an official announcement of Stage II but we were effectively already there?
What will stage 2 consist of?
School closure, work from home, social distancing, no events.
We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.
So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.
I thought he said early this week that there wouldn't be an official announcement of Stage II but we were effectively already there?
What will stage 2 consist of?
For punters, it will surely send the stock market down again.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
17,000 Italians die annually from the flu. 60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
Indeed - the real tragedy here is that a country which has been in multi-decade stagnation is now going to have a very serious recession. Tourism is going to have a horrible time.
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
One of the things that is mis-understood on an epic scale is the nature of British re-armament. Started in 1932 (before Hitler came to power) - by 1936, it was essentially unlimited in money terms. the emphasis was on building up industrial capacity.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
I thought he didn’t expect war over Poland? Just pushed his luck once too often
Its worth remembering that in 1940 Hitler had been rolling 18 continuously since 1920 something. The corporal in the hospital in 1918 was the absolute master of a Greater Germany that seemingly could do anything.
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
One of the things that is mis-understood on an epic scale is the nature of British re-armament. Started in 1932 (before Hitler came to power) - by 1936, it was essentially unlimited in money terms. the emphasis was on building up industrial capacity.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
The American industrial response after they joined the War is even more remarkable, laying the foundations for their economic strength subsequently.
At the moment, it is still possible to travel by train and plane to Lombardy but, in the next few hours, checkpoints should be placed at toll booths, stations and airports. Public transport within the cities will instead remain guaranteed.
The Italians really are f##king this up...we will get those check-points up right after I have watched the footy and had dinner with my family. In which time, everybody under the sun has legged it, spreading the disease far and wide.
Sounds like the police and army couldn’t be arsed working on a Sunday morning, and didn’t want to disrupt sports teams going about their business - especially the ones from Maranello who needed to catch flights to Melbourne!
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
One of the things that is mis-understood on an epic scale is the nature of British re-armament. Started in 1932 (before Hitler came to power) - by 1936, it was essentially unlimited in money terms. the emphasis was on building up industrial capacity.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
The American industrial response after they joined the War is even more remarkable, laying the foundations for their economic strength subsequently.
And is commonly talked about.
British re-armament was in great depth and thoroughness. Unfortunately it was planned around the German timetable for armament. Which was patently obvious - based on the ship construction plans.
Consider the 17lbr - in 1939, before the war, the plan was to move from the 2lbr to the 6lbr and then the 17lbr by 1941. As standard tank and anti-tank armament. So that by 1941 every British tank would have had a gun more powerful than the German 88.
Ironically, the early break out of war delayed and cancelled many of these program.
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
One of the things that is mis-understood on an epic scale is the nature of British re-armament. Started in 1932 (before Hitler came to power) - by 1936, it was essentially unlimited in money terms. the emphasis was on building up industrial capacity.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
I thought he didn’t expect war over Poland? Just pushed his luck once too often
Reportedly he was stunned that the British stuck to their guns - he viewed us as “natural allies” - he would run Europe while the British stuck to their Empire. Too late he discovered we would “have his neck, or perish in the attempt”.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
17,000 Italians die annually from the flu. 60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.
And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).
If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.
Will Italy be holding out the begging bowl to the EU to get them through it?
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
One of the things that is mis-understood on an epic scale is the nature of British re-armament. Started in 1932 (before Hitler came to power) - by 1936, it was essentially unlimited in money terms. the emphasis was on building up industrial capacity.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
The American industrial response after they joined the War is even more remarkable, laying the foundations for their economic strength subsequently.
The New Deal made America a socially viable state after the depression and provided years of growth, and World War II, and its turn once again to huge government spending, left the US a global industrial superpower and provided decades more growth. America's taxes were also far higher than today in that buoyant 1941-1973 period.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
17,000 Italians die annually from the flu. 60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.
And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).
If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.
Will Italy be holding out the begging bowl to the EU to get them through it?
The manner of his statement is bad news, possibly even worse than that for the DNC and the Biden candidacy, even if he gets it.
Big coup for Sanders as on the latest Michigan poll he was tied with Biden with white voters but trailed Biden with black voters, so the Jackson endorsement will boost him with the latter
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
17,000 Italians die annually from the flu. 60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.
And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).
If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.
Will Italy be holding out the begging bowl to the EU to get them through it?
Netherlands: Two more deaths from Covid-19 have been reported taking the total to three. The number of infections jumped on Sunday to 265, from 188 a day earlier
Switzerland: A person being treated in hospital in Liestal for the disease has died, taking the national death toll to two. The country has 281 confirmed infections
Singapore: Twelve new cases have been confirmed taking the total to 150. So far Singapore has not reported any deaths from the virus
Belgium: Another 31 cases were reported on Sunday taking the national total to 200.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
17,000 Italians die annually from the flu. 60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.
And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).
If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.
I think people really need to put out of their minds these estimates based on doubling rates and timng of peaks. They're absolutely meaningless.
The question is whether it can be confined to a small percentage of the population as it was in China, which involves reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Or whether that number is going to remain significantly above 1, and it's going to go through - say - half the population and then burn itself out.
In the former case the mortality might indeed be comparable with that in a bad flu year. In the latter, we're talking about something on the order of a million dead in each of the larger countries of Western Europe.
However, I don't think the 10% critical figure from Italy is reliable either, because there's strong evidence from several angles that Italy is picking up only a relatively small percentage of infections.
To get a bit AndyJS, Germany has 800 cases and STILL no deaths. It does become curious.
That may mean that Germany has detected a much higher percentage of cases than elsewhere. In China outside Hubei, early in the epidemic, the apparently fatality rate was as low as 0.2%, though with time it rose by a factor of 4.
Totally O/T...when was the last time a top of premier league club had a totally English midfield? Chelsea are starting with Barkley, Gilmour and Mount today.
This season Liverpool fielded a midfield of Henderson, Milner. and Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
The honest truth is, I don’t know my London boroughs that well. I have spent a lot of time in central London, and a lot of time in Kew and Richmond, but I don’t like the place much and I haven’t really explored it.
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
I was being a pedant - it didn’t undermine your case at all...
Oh turn on HYUFD again, you really are a pompous arse sometimes.
And for the point of property prices your originally pedant is utterly irrelevant, property prices are measured by borough so which area of Kensington and Chelsea it happened to be in is completely irrelevant in terms of comparing property prices with Doncaster
He said Kensington.
And illustrated it with a house in Chelsea.
There is a reason why it is called the RB of K *AND* C
And I’m not turning on you. But if you feel there is a consistency of comments have a think about why...
Yes and Kensington is in the royal borough of Kensington and Chelsea, so whether it is in Kensington or Chelsea makes no difference as for the purposes of house price calculations done by borough they are both the same area.
I am sure there are some areas of Doncaster more expensive than others too but for the purpose of house price calculation they are all included in the one area
Actually, that was one of the more expensive houses. You can get a 3 bed ex-council semi for £85,000.
Comments
I am sure there are some areas of Doncaster more expensive than others too but for the purpose of house price calculation they are all included in the one area
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274
I guess they will put off closing schools for another week or two, as Easter is coming up anyway.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/08/trump-immigration-policies-undocumented-coronavirus
Pushing his luck *worked* up to that point.
https://twitter.com/chicagotribune/status/1236650344454787072
The manner of his statement is bad news, possibly even worse than that for the DNC and the Biden candidacy, even if he gets it.
British re-armament was in great depth and thoroughness. Unfortunately it was planned around the German timetable for armament. Which was patently obvious - based on the ship construction plans.
Consider the 17lbr - in 1939, before the war, the plan was to move from the 2lbr to the 6lbr and then the 17lbr by 1941. As standard tank and anti-tank armament. So that by 1941 every British tank would have had a gun more powerful than the German 88.
Ironically, the early break out of war delayed and cancelled many of these program.
...and in other news. Labour Party suppressing ballot forms to the new 100,000 predominantly non- RLB voting members. (Independent)
Layla Moran throws her hat into the LD leadership ring. (Guardian)
NEW THREAD
Switzerland: A person being treated in hospital in Liestal for the disease has died, taking the national death toll to two. The country has 281 confirmed infections
Singapore: Twelve new cases have been confirmed taking the total to 150. So far Singapore has not reported any deaths from the virus
Belgium: Another 31 cases were reported on Sunday taking the national total to 200.
The question is whether it can be confined to a small percentage of the population as it was in China, which involves reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Or whether that number is going to remain significantly above 1, and it's going to go through - say - half the population and then burn itself out.
In the former case the mortality might indeed be comparable with that in a bad flu year. In the latter, we're talking about something on the order of a million dead in each of the larger countries of Western Europe.
However, I don't think the 10% critical figure from Italy is reliable either, because there's strong evidence from several angles that Italy is picking up only a relatively small percentage of infections.